Seems we are being invited to reduce our peak energy use as the windfarms are becalmed by the cold weather
And yet the demand is for even more windfarms when we really need nuclear and tidal to guarantee constant energy supply if we end gas usage
It could be a very long time until we can dispense with gas
We obviously can't dispense with gas, or coal for that matter. The idea is to vastly reduce it during windy and sunny times, or even storing gas/coal for intermittent use. And yes, developing Nuclear as well. It's called a mixed system. We should never put all our eggs in one basket. Obviously there is a demand for more wind farms, like all other sources!
I am in favour of additional wind generation but it does depend on 'wind' and often in very cold weather the wind is not at all reliable as we are seeing just now
Storage when there is wind?
I would assume storage has a role to play
Interestingly under today’s calm cold conditions we are currently generating 5.3gw of wind power, which is greater than our nuclear generation.
Whilst more wind power doesn’t eliminate the problem of intermittency it certainly reduces it. With 4x the current capacity (perfectly feasible especially with new larger turbines coming on) we’d be generating half of our electricity from wind even on a still, high demand night like tonight.
We need more wind (much much more), more solar with built in battery storage, more nuclear, further progress on energy efficiency, more cross border interconnecters to balance European supply and demand, more grid scale storage of various types, and backup gas generation until such time as it’s no longer needed.
I'm sorry but this post is utter rubbish - both according to basic logic, and current real life. All these wind providers must be paid. They get paid to shut off when their power is too much for the grid - currently hundreds of millions a year. The capacity increase you're proposing would propel constraint payments into the stratosphere, all only for half of electricity supply on a low wind night? It's power generation for the severely numerically-challenged. Your barmy theories are why UK energy production is in its pitiful state.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
It’s bizarre that the Elizabeth Line does not go to LCY when it runs very near.
Yes, a major miss
However there are rumours the Powers That Be want to close LCY. Doesn’t make much money, doesn’t add much to the economy, sits on major real estate, and prevents super tall skyscrapers nearby
So the miss might be deliberate
As with the Cardiff example, the question is makes money for whom?
Even in 2023, service exports are correlated with the ability of people to go places and sell.
LCY may well be a significant asset to UK PLC, even if it is delivering disappointing returns for its entirely foreign based (Canadian pension funds and the Kuwaiti sovereign wealth fund) ownership.
I’m just not convinced it is worth the real estate, tho
And the tall buildings blight is a real issue. East London/City/Docklands needs to go UP to cater for growing populations. LCY prevents that for… what? A few dozen flights a day?
Developing Southend - or an entirely new place on the Liz Line - makes more sense and would revive chunks of Essex. Scrap LCY. Build a heliport if needs be
Needs to be a bit closer than Southend but could be close to Tilbury or Thurrock, and expand to be a properly large airport. Not the hub, because public transport isn’t good enough (though could of course be improved, and the M25 is nearby). Could be as big as Gatwick.
Then turn the whole LCY area into high density tall buildings. It’s brownfield, there’s little green space or old architecture to lose, and this would also trigger more building and economic activity around Dartford/Thurrock.
Complete agreement from me. An easy way to add 100,000s of homes in London. Move LCY downstream
We are back to Bozo's plan of closing Heathrow and moving it lock stock and barrel to someone on the east of London (doesn't really matter if it's Essex or Kent provided decent transport links are put in place).
How many 0,000 houses could you build on Heathrow?
I would rather build housing on unprofitable airports like Dundee and Prestwick.
It’s bizarre that the Elizabeth Line does not go to LCY when it runs very near.
Yes, a major miss
However there are rumours the Powers That Be want to close LCY. Doesn’t make much money, doesn’t add much to the economy, sits on major real estate, and prevents super tall skyscrapers nearby
So the miss might be deliberate
As with the Cardiff example, the question is makes money for whom?
Even in 2023, service exports are correlated with the ability of people to go places and sell.
LCY may well be a significant asset to UK PLC, even if it is delivering disappointing returns for its entirely foreign based (Canadian pension funds and the Kuwaiti sovereign wealth fund) ownership.
I’m just not convinced it is worth the real estate, tho
And the tall buildings blight is a real issue. East London/City/Docklands needs to go UP to cater for growing populations. LCY prevents that for… what? A few dozen flights a day?
Developing Southend - or an entirely new place on the Liz Line - makes more sense and would revive chunks of Essex. Scrap LCY. Build a heliport if needs be
Needs to be a bit closer than Southend but could be close to Tilbury or Thurrock, and expand to be a properly large airport. Not the hub, because public transport isn’t good enough (though could of course be improved, and the M25 is nearby). Could be as big as Gatwick.
Then turn the whole LCY area into high density tall buildings. It’s brownfield, there’s little green space or old architecture to lose, and this would also trigger more building and economic activity around Dartford/Thurrock.
Complete agreement from me. An easy way to add 100,000s of homes in London. Move LCY downstream
We are back to Bozo's plan of closing Heathrow and moving it lock stock and barrel to someone on the east of London (doesn't really matter if it's Essex or Kent provided decent transport links are put in place).
How many 0,000 houses could you build on Heathrow?
I would rather build housing on unprofitable airports like Dundee and Prestwick.
Feck off we are not wasting Prestwick, national treasure.
As always, Moonbat is posting from another place, another time, in a different dimension of the multi-verse.
On her planet, the clocks strike thirteen, men wear a metallic exoskeleton, Gloria Hunniford is Lord High Chancellor, and the Tories are making a rapid recovery in the polls.
On the other hand, it is Chinese Year of the MoonRabbit!
Actually Moon Rabbit isn’t part of the zodiac but of folk lore. Gui Mao is the 40th element of the Chinese sexagenary cycle – the Heavenly Stem “Gui” represents water, whereas the earthly branch “Mao” represents Rabbit. So this year is Water Rabbit.
My avatar here is a rabbit looking at Jade and her Rabbit on the moon.
In Zodiac terms I’m a fire rat. very energetic, and are brave enough to face any difficulty and danger. Fire Rats are cordial and friendly to their friends - this is me!
Lovely crescent moon this evening visible just after sunset from Dorset, with Venus and Saturn both close by in the sky.
As always, Moonbat is posting from another place, another time, in a different dimension of the multi-verse.
On her planet, the clocks strike thirteen, men wear a metallic exoskeleton, Gloria Hunniford is Lord High Chancellor, and the Tories are making a rapid recovery in the polls.
If nothing else this sounds like a great steampunk novel synopsis.
ahem..
It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. @ Moonbat, her chin nuzzled into her breast in an effort to escape the vile wind, slipped quickly through the glass doors of Victory Mansions, though not quickly enough to prevent a swirl of gritty dust from entering along with her. ... On each landing, opposite the lift-shaft, the poster with the enormous face gazed from the wall. It was one of those pictures which are designed to that the eyes follow you about when you move. GLORIA IS WATCHING YOU, the caption beneath it ran.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
I was shocked to discover that Twitter had 7,500 employees.
My jaw dropped when I discovered that Spotify has 10,000 people working for them. For what’s basically a music player.
What’s not been said with all the tech layoffs, is that most of these companies have *doubled* their workforces since the start of the pandemic. They’re mostly going back to the size they were about six months ago!
Someone pointed out the other day, that many of the the younger people in tech have not seen a real downturn. Sure, Musk chops his workforce from time to time - but he is weird. The others have grown as if it is inevitable to always employ more people.
EDIT: The idea of Spotify is something which is *supposed* to be ultra-automated.
Spotify sounds like it would take a great deal of admin for music rights around the world, banking different currencies, and translation into umpteen languages. That's beside the technical aspect.
What you are seeing is the tech companies reviewing what is actually doing stuff. Very easy to grow teams and functions that actually create negative net work.
Which is one of the problems of really big corporation and government. It is very very hard to do controlled burns there. So you end up with a really massive forest fire, from time to time, when it builds up to the point of failure.
Tory sleazebag Nadim Zahawi losing 5 million quid down the back of the sofa that he'd forgotten to hand over to HMRC doesn't bother me nearly as much as Boris appointing his chum and personal banker chairman of the only institution still held in some regard in this country.
Tory sleazebag Nadim Zahawi losing 5 million quid down the back of the sofa that he'd forgotten to hand over to HMRC doesn't bother me nearly as much as Boris appointing his chum and personal banker chairman of the only institution still held in some regard in this country.
Out of 10.4 GW of UK's offshore wind energy capacity 7.3% is owned by UK entities; 92.7% is owned by non-UK entities.
UK's off-shore wind power is not really our wind - it is owned by others. Yet we are told that the UK has a world-beating wind power industry.
The UK sometimes seems like the national equivalent of people who buy an iPhone on an overpriced 3 year contract.
Persuade me I'm wrong.
I cannot.
Indeed my hypothesis is that the UK’s attachment to the “premier football” economic model is almost unique in the Western world, save perhaps New Zealand.
NZ at least has a thriving farming sector which by default spreads wealth around the country, even if everything else is owned overseas.
The UK’s model suits various rentiers, deal-makers and derivative-definers in London.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Out of 10.4 GW of UK's offshore wind energy capacity 7.3% is owned by UK entities; 92.7% is owned by non-UK entities.
UK's off-shore wind power is not really our wind - it is owned by others. Yet we are told that the UK has a world-beating wind power industry.
The UK sometimes seems like the national equivalent of people who buy an iPhone on an overpriced 3 year contract.
Persuade me I'm wrong.
I cannot.
Indeed my hypothesis is that the UK’s attachment to the “premier football” economic model is almost unique in the Western world, save perhaps New Zealand.
NZ at least has a thriving farming sector which by default spreads wealth around the country, even if everything else is owned overseas.
The UK’s model suits various rentiers, deal-makers and derivative-definers in London.
As always, Moonbat is posting from another place, another time, in a different dimension of the multi-verse.
On her planet, the clocks strike thirteen, men wear a metallic exoskeleton, Gloria Hunniford is Lord High Chancellor, and the Tories are making a rapid recovery in the polls.
If nothing else this sounds like a great steampunk novel synopsis.
ahem..
It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. @ Moonbat, her chin nuzzled into her breast in an effort to escape the vile wind, slipped quickly through the glass doors of Victory Mansions, though not quickly enough to prevent a swirl of gritty dust from entering along with her. ... On each landing, opposite the lift-shaft, the poster with the enormous face gazed from the wall. It was one of those pictures which are designed to that the eyes follow you about when you move. GLORIA IS WATCHING YOU, the caption beneath it ran.
I for one welcome our New Radio 2 Overlords
The horrible thing about Jo Whiley's Shiny Happy Playlist was not that one was obliged to act a part, but, on the contrary, that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge-hammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp.
Out of 10.4 GW of UK's offshore wind energy capacity 7.3% is owned by UK entities; 92.7% is owned by non-UK entities.
UK's off-shore wind power is not really our wind - it is owned by others. Yet we are told that the UK has a world-beating wind power industry.
The UK sometimes seems like the national equivalent of people who buy an iPhone on an overpriced 3 year contract.
Persuade me I'm wrong.
I cannot.
Indeed my hypothesis is that the UK’s attachment to the “premier football” economic model is almost unique in the Western world, save perhaps New Zealand.
NZ at least has a thriving farming sector which by default spreads wealth around the country, even if everything else is owned overseas.
The UK’s model suits various rentiers, deal-makers and derivative-definers in London.
As always, Moonbat is posting from another place, another time, in a different dimension of the multi-verse.
On her planet, the clocks strike thirteen, men wear a metallic exoskeleton, Gloria Hunniford is Lord High Chancellor, and the Tories are making a rapid recovery in the polls.
If nothing else this sounds like a great steampunk novel synopsis.
ahem..
It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. @ Moonbat, her chin nuzzled into her breast in an effort to escape the vile wind, slipped quickly through the glass doors of Victory Mansions, though not quickly enough to prevent a swirl of gritty dust from entering along with her. ... On each landing, opposite the lift-shaft, the poster with the enormous face gazed from the wall. It was one of those pictures which are designed to that the eyes follow you about when you move. GLORIA IS WATCHING YOU, the caption beneath it ran.
I for one welcome our New Radio 2 Overlords
The horrible thing about Jo Whiley's Shiny Happy Playlist was not that one was obliged to act a part, but, on the contrary, that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge-hammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp.
Out of 10.4 GW of UK's offshore wind energy capacity 7.3% is owned by UK entities; 92.7% is owned by non-UK entities.
UK's off-shore wind power is not really our wind - it is owned by others. Yet we are told that the UK has a world-beating wind power industry.
The UK sometimes seems like the national equivalent of people who buy an iPhone on an overpriced 3 year contract.
Persuade me I'm wrong.
I cannot.
Indeed my hypothesis is that the UK’s attachment to the “premier football” economic model is almost unique in the Western world, save perhaps New Zealand.
NZ at least has a thriving farming sector which by default spreads wealth around the country, even if everything else is owned overseas.
The UK’s model suits various rentiers, deal-makers and derivative-definers in London.
New Zealand’s farming industry, is a great real-world example of what happens when government gets out of the way.
When the farming subsidies were abandoned, the farmers were up in arms about all going bankrupt - yet they have absolutely thrived in the last couple of decades, becoming the largest export sector for their country.
As always, Moonbat is posting from another place, another time, in a different dimension of the multi-verse.
On her planet, the clocks strike thirteen, men wear a metallic exoskeleton, Gloria Hunniford is Lord High Chancellor, and the Tories are making a rapid recovery in the polls.
If nothing else this sounds like a great steampunk novel synopsis.
ahem..
It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. @ Moonbat, her chin nuzzled into her breast in an effort to escape the vile wind, slipped quickly through the glass doors of Victory Mansions, though not quickly enough to prevent a swirl of gritty dust from entering along with her. ... On each landing, opposite the lift-shaft, the poster with the enormous face gazed from the wall. It was one of those pictures which are designed to that the eyes follow you about when you move. GLORIA IS WATCHING YOU, the caption beneath it ran.
I for one welcome our New Radio 2 Overlords
The horrible thing about Jo Whiley's Shiny Happy Playlist was not that one was obliged to act a part, but, on the contrary, that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge-hammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
Tom Driberg?
Jeffrey Archer? Jeremy Thorpe? John Stonehouse?
All of those had some amusing qualities. Maxwell had a nice yacht to go swimming from, for example. Jeffrey Archer would serve OK champagne is reasonable abundance. Etc
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
Tom Driberg?
Jeffrey Archer? Jeremy Thorpe? John Stonehouse?
All of those had some amusing qualities. Maxwell had a nice yacht to go swimming from, for example. Jeffrey Archer would serve OK champagne is reasonable abundance. Etc
Jared O’Mara - why, for the love of Cthulu?
They also held good parties, Archer's champagne and shepherds pie parties were legendary in attracting celebrities and top politicians
Seems we are being invited to reduce our peak energy use as the windfarms are becalmed by the cold weather
And yet the demand is for even more windfarms when we really need nuclear and tidal to guarantee constant energy supply if we end gas usage
It could be a very long time until we can dispense with gas
We obviously can't dispense with gas, or coal for that matter. The idea is to vastly reduce it during windy and sunny times, or even storing gas/coal for intermittent use. And yes, developing Nuclear as well. It's called a mixed system. We should never put all our eggs in one basket. Obviously there is a demand for more wind farms, like all other sources!
I am in favour of additional wind generation but it does depend on 'wind' and often in very cold weather the wind is not at all reliable as we are seeing just now
Storage when there is wind?
I would assume storage has a role to play
Interestingly under today’s calm cold conditions we are currently generating 5.3gw of wind power, which is greater than our nuclear generation.
Whilst more wind power doesn’t eliminate the problem of intermittency it certainly reduces it. With 4x the current capacity (perfectly feasible especially with new larger turbines coming on) we’d be generating half of our electricity from wind even on a still, high demand night like tonight.
We need more wind (much much more), more solar with built in battery storage, more nuclear, further progress on energy efficiency, more cross border interconnecters to balance European supply and demand, more grid scale storage of various types, and backup gas generation until such time as it’s no longer needed.
I'm sorry but this post is utter rubbish - both according to basic logic, and current real life. All these wind providers must be paid. They get paid to shut off when their power is too much for the grid - currently hundreds of millions a year. The capacity increase you're proposing would propel constraint payments into the stratosphere, all only for half of electricity supply on a low wind night? It's power generation for the severely numerically-challenged. Your barmy theories are why UK energy production is in its pitiful state.
I’m proud to know that my PB posts have had such a profound and important impact on our power system.
We’ve gone over the subsidy and constraint payment canard dozens of times on here before yet you always end up stating the same assumptions.
Constraint payments are a feature of regional imbalances, not national surplus, and insufficient grid carriage capacity largely because sometimes more wind power is generated in the North and Scotland than the grid capacity able to carry it South. Until recently it had to make its way down the equivalent of narrow b roads. The issue is being actively addressed by investment from national grid. Ie they are building big cables to carry the power to where it’s needed.
A lot of anti wind rhetoric seems to take one little issue (take your pick: planning eyesore birds being hit by blades, what about when it’s calm, constraint payments etc) and conclude the answer is therefore to stop wind power and spend our money on old fossil fuel technologies instead. This ignores the problems with them (climate change aside there is air pollution, geopolitical risk, planning etc) and also ignores the fact that in most case there are solutions to the original issue.
As always, Moonbat is posting from another place, another time, in a different dimension of the multi-verse.
On her planet, the clocks strike thirteen, men wear a metallic exoskeleton, Gloria Hunniford is Lord High Chancellor, and the Tories are making a rapid recovery in the polls.
If nothing else this sounds like a great steampunk novel synopsis.
ahem..
It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. @ Moonbat, her chin nuzzled into her breast in an effort to escape the vile wind, slipped quickly through the glass doors of Victory Mansions, though not quickly enough to prevent a swirl of gritty dust from entering along with her. ... On each landing, opposite the lift-shaft, the poster with the enormous face gazed from the wall. It was one of those pictures which are designed to that the eyes follow you about when you move. GLORIA IS WATCHING YOU, the caption beneath it ran.
I for one welcome our New Radio 2 Overlords
The horrible thing about Jo Whiley's Shiny Happy Playlist was not that one was obliged to act a part, but, on the contrary, that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge-hammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp.
Yes but WHERE ARE MY EXOSKELETONS
At the age of three @solarflare had refused all toys except a drum, a sub-machine gun, and a model exoskeleton. At six--a year early, by a special relaxation of the rules--he had joined the Spies, at nine he had been a troop leader. At eleven he had denounced his uncle to the Thought Police after overhearing a conversation which appeared to him to have Labour tendencies. At seventeen he had been a district organiser of the Junior Anti-Sex League. At nineteen he had designed an exoskeleton which had been adopted by the Ministry of Peace and which, at its first trial, had killed thirty-one Eurasian prisoners.
At twenty-three he had perished in action. Pursued by enemy jet planes while flying over the Indian Ocean with important despatches, he had weighted his body with his beloved exoskeleton and leapt out of the helicopter into deep water, despatches and all--an end, said Gloria, which it was impossible to contemplate without feelings of envy.
As always, Moonbat is posting from another place, another time, in a different dimension of the multi-verse.
On her planet, the clocks strike thirteen, men wear a metallic exoskeleton, Gloria Hunniford is Lord High Chancellor, and the Tories are making a rapid recovery in the polls.
If nothing else this sounds like a great steampunk novel synopsis.
ahem..
It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. @ Moonbat, her chin nuzzled into her breast in an effort to escape the vile wind, slipped quickly through the glass doors of Victory Mansions, though not quickly enough to prevent a swirl of gritty dust from entering along with her. ... On each landing, opposite the lift-shaft, the poster with the enormous face gazed from the wall. It was one of those pictures which are designed to that the eyes follow you about when you move. GLORIA IS WATCHING YOU, the caption beneath it ran.
I for one welcome our New Radio 2 Overlords
The horrible thing about Jo Whiley's Shiny Happy Playlist was not that one was obliged to act a part, but, on the contrary, that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge-hammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp.
Yes but WHERE ARE MY EXOSKELETONS
At the age of three @solarflare had refused all toys except a drum, a sub-machine gun, and a model exoskeleton. At six--a year early, by a special relaxation of the rules--he had joined the Spies, at nine he had been a troop leader. At eleven he had denounced his uncle to the Thought Police after overhearing a conversation which appeared to him to have Labour tendencies. At seventeen he had been a district organiser of the Junior Anti-Sex League. At nineteen he had designed an exoskeleton which had been adopted by the Ministry of Peace and which, at its first trial, had killed thirty-one Eurasian prisoners.
At twenty-three he had perished in action. Pursued by enemy jet planes while flying over the Indian Ocean with important despatches, he had weighted his body with his beloved exoskeleton and leapt out of the helicopter into deep water, despatches and all--an end, said Gloria, which it was impossible to contemplate without feelings of envy.
I knew I'd put too much info on my social media profiles.
Golly, we certainly have moved on molto rapido from ‘sensible Sweden had a great response to COVID, why couldn’t we be more like them?’
There’s one poster and one poster specifically who’s responsible for the ire directed at Sweden. Motes and beams and all that.
A big boy made me do it and ran away!
I’ve come over all nostalgic for the 80s when Conservatives were about taking responsibility for one’s own actions. Or so they said anyway.
Conservatives? When did Conservatives come into it? Many on here, regardless of political persuasion, are happy to take the piss out of that Anglophobic twat even vicariously through Sweden. “Your country’s shite”, “And yours leads the world in hand grenade crime” is hardly hate crime level of abuse.
As Lampard has a net worth of £75 million, at least when he is sacked he doesn't have to worry too much about how quickly he will have his next paid job
As always, Moonbat is posting from another place, another time, in a different dimension of the multi-verse.
On her planet, the clocks strike thirteen, men wear a metallic exoskeleton, Gloria Hunniford is Lord High Chancellor, and the Tories are making a rapid recovery in the polls.
If nothing else this sounds like a great steampunk novel synopsis.
ahem..
It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. @ Moonbat, her chin nuzzled into her breast in an effort to escape the vile wind, slipped quickly through the glass doors of Victory Mansions, though not quickly enough to prevent a swirl of gritty dust from entering along with her. ... On each landing, opposite the lift-shaft, the poster with the enormous face gazed from the wall. It was one of those pictures which are designed to that the eyes follow you about when you move. GLORIA IS WATCHING YOU, the caption beneath it ran.
I for one welcome our New Radio 2 Overlords
The horrible thing about Jo Whiley's Shiny Happy Playlist was not that one was obliged to act a part, but, on the contrary, that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge-hammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp.
Yes but WHERE ARE MY EXOSKELETONS
At the age of three @solarflare had refused all toys except a drum, a sub-machine gun, and a model exoskeleton. At six--a year early, by a special relaxation of the rules--he had joined the Spies, at nine he had been a troop leader. At eleven he had denounced his uncle to the Thought Police after overhearing a conversation which appeared to him to have Labour tendencies. At seventeen he had been a district organiser of the Junior Anti-Sex League. At nineteen he had designed an exoskeleton which had been adopted by the Ministry of Peace and which, at its first trial, had killed thirty-one Eurasian prisoners.
At twenty-three he had perished in action. Pursued by enemy jet planes while flying over the Indian Ocean with important despatches, he had weighted his body with his beloved exoskeleton and leapt out of the helicopter into deep water, despatches and all--an end, said Gloria, which it was impossible to contemplate without feelings of envy.
How does the Anti Sex League fit in with a recovering Tory party?
Google pay offs for staff laid off. Is very generous.
If I was offered this tomorrow where I work I’d snap their hand off
“Don't worry too much about the people being laid off from Google. Here's the severance they'll get:
- 16 weeks of base pay - 2 additional weeks of pay for every year they were at Google - 16 weeks of accelerated share vesting - 6 months of healthcare”
It’s bizarre that the Elizabeth Line does not go to LCY when it runs very near.
Yes, a major miss
However there are rumours the Powers That Be want to close LCY. Doesn’t make much money, doesn’t add much to the economy, sits on major real estate, and prevents super tall skyscrapers nearby
So the miss might be deliberate
As with the Cardiff example, the question is makes money for whom?
Even in 2023, service exports are correlated with the ability of people to go places and sell.
LCY may well be a significant asset to UK PLC, even if it is delivering disappointing returns for its entirely foreign based (Canadian pension funds and the Kuwaiti sovereign wealth fund) ownership.
I’m just not convinced it is worth the real estate, tho
And the tall buildings blight is a real issue. East London/City/Docklands needs to go UP to cater for growing populations. LCY prevents that for… what? A few dozen flights a day?
Developing Southend - or an entirely new place on the Liz Line - makes more sense and would revive chunks of Essex. Scrap LCY. Build a heliport if needs be
Needs to be a bit closer than Southend but could be close to Tilbury or Thurrock, and expand to be a properly large airport. Not the hub, because public transport isn’t good enough (though could of course be improved, and the M25 is nearby). Could be as big as Gatwick.
Then turn the whole LCY area into high density tall buildings. It’s brownfield, there’s little green space or old architecture to lose, and this would also trigger more building and economic activity around Dartford/Thurrock.
Complete agreement from me. An easy way to add 100,000s of homes in London. Move LCY downstream
We are back to Bozo's plan of closing Heathrow and moving it lock stock and barrel to someone on the east of London (doesn't really matter if it's Essex or Kent provided decent transport links are put in place).
How many 0,000 houses could you build on Heathrow?
I would rather build housing on unprofitable airports like Dundee and Prestwick.
Feck off we are not wasting Prestwick, national treasure.
Why oh why, wasn't a decent international airport built in the Central Belt, between Edinburgh and Glasgow? Instead we have Prestwick, "Glasgow" stuck in the west too, with only Edinburgh itself somewhere convenient.
Same nonsense in NE England where the airport should have been south of the Tyne somewhere like Washington, where it would have been an easy reach from Tyneside, Wearside and Teesside. Instead its stuck out on the NW side of Newcastle.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
It is a curious thing that of the 8 LD holdouts in 2015, which you might think must be their absolute core seats, only 2 are held today - Orkney and Shetland, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.
They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.
North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
Is Schenegen gambit, with both UK and ROI joining in, perhaps an option that is being explored in discussions between the two, the EU and (lest we forget) the US?
Schen(an)egen!
QTWTAIN
Why?
Because Conservative and (Dis)Unionist Party "leaders" much prefer continuance of stalemate they've engineered?
Because whether or not it's a good idea, it's irrelevant to the stalemate or the protocol.
Out of 10.4 GW of UK's offshore wind energy capacity 7.3% is owned by UK entities; 92.7% is owned by non-UK entities.
UK's off-shore wind power is not really our wind - it is owned by others. Yet we are told that the UK has a world-beating wind power industry.
The UK sometimes seems like the national equivalent of people who buy an iPhone on an overpriced 3 year contract.
Persuade me I'm wrong.
I cannot.
Indeed my hypothesis is that the UK’s attachment to the “premier football” economic model is almost unique in the Western world, save perhaps New Zealand.
NZ at least has a thriving farming sector which by default spreads wealth around the country, even if everything else is owned overseas.
The UK’s model suits various rentiers, deal-makers and derivative-definers in London.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
It is a curious thing that of the 8 LD holdouts in 2015, which you might think must be their absolute core seats, only 2 are held today - Orkney and Shetland, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.
They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.
North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
Eastbourne is a strange one which keeps flipflopping between the LDs and Tories.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
It is a curious thing that of the 8 LD holdouts in 2015, which you might think must be their absolute core seats, only 2 are held today - Orkney and Shetland, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.
They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.
North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
I think LibDems will be safe in three of their Scottish seats: Orkney and Shetland, NE Fife and Edinburgh W where they also hold the equivalent seats at Holyrood. Caithness and Sutherland however will be v difficult as it is a tiny majority and in the boundary changes is being extended southwards to take in a chunk of Ian Blackford's seat, which flips it to the SNP. Jamie Stone will have his work cut out, if he stands again.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
It is a curious thing that of the 8 LD holdouts in 2015, which you might think must be their absolute core seats, only 2 are held today - Orkney and Shetland, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.
They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.
North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
According to Baxter, the new boundaries mean the SLD have lost 2 seats: North East Fife (gets a chunk of the old Glenrothes seat) Highland North (the former Caithness et al gets a big chunk from further south)
And Edinburgh West looks very vulnerable if SLab experience a surge.
I involuntarily read that sentence in a Neil Kinnock accent.
That's far too short, even giving it the benefit of the doubt - and there is always doubt of course - but that's far, far too short in terms of number of words and complexity of structure, far too simple in construction indeed, for it ever to have been a genuine Neil Kinnock sentence.
Out of 10.4 GW of UK's offshore wind energy capacity 7.3% is owned by UK entities; 92.7% is owned by non-UK entities.
UK's off-shore wind power is not really our wind - it is owned by others. Yet we are told that the UK has a world-beating wind power industry.
The UK sometimes seems like the national equivalent of people who buy an iPhone on an overpriced 3 year contract.
Persuade me I'm wrong.
I cannot.
Indeed my hypothesis is that the UK’s attachment to the “premier football” economic model is almost unique in the Western world, save perhaps New Zealand.
NZ at least has a thriving farming sector which by default spreads wealth around the country, even if everything else is owned overseas.
The UK’s model suits various rentiers, deal-makers and derivative-definers in London.
New Zealand’s farming industry, is a great real-world example of what happens when government gets out of the way.
When the farming subsidies were abandoned, the farmers were up in arms about all going bankrupt - yet they have absolutely thrived in the last couple of decades, becoming the largest export sector for their country.
This is often trotted out by neo-liberal no-nothings.
NZ has a massive advantage in farming due to our topography and (lack of) population.
It is our main export earner and government trade and regulatory policy remains focused on the furtherance of that.
On the other hand, NZ has failed to develop significant other sectors and “enjoys” a chronic trade deficit.
Unto itself there is no obvious lesson for the UK.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
It is a curious thing that of the 8 LD holdouts in 2015, which you might think must be their absolute core seats, only 2 are held today - Orkney and Shetland, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.
They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.
North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
According to Baxter, the new boundaries mean the SLD have lost 2 seats: North East Fife (gets a chunk of the old Glenrothes seat) Highland North (the former Caithness et al gets a big chunk from further south)
And Edinburgh West looks very vulnerable if SLab experience a surge.
Reliant on some smart tactical choices from voters on the ground in Edinburgh from the looks of it. Interesting that Burgessian reckons Fife is probably held.
The Government approval and Sunak's approval numbers both down while Starmer's approval goes up and in the "best PM" contest, Starmer moves to a 5-point lead over Sunak (40-35).
Into the entrails and the 2019 Conservative vote splits 53% Conservative, 18% Labour, 14% Don't Know, 8% Reform and 4% LD.
The Conservatives lead 38-37 in the South East but trail 41-34 among over 65s.
Excluding the Don't Knows, the split for England is Labour 51%, Conservative 27%, Lib Dem 11%, Reform 7% and Green 3%. That's a swing of 18.5% from Conservative to Labour in England. That takes us to Amber Valley, the 260th most marginal Conservative seat.
The details of the Deltapoll survey are interesting. Labour on 44%, Tories on 30%, but Reform on 4% and UKIP on 3%, giving a right-of-centre total of 37%.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
It is a curious thing that of the 8 LD holdouts in 2015, which you might think must be their absolute core seats, only 2 are held today - Orkney and Shetland, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.
They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.
North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
According to Baxter, the new boundaries mean the SLD have lost 2 seats: North East Fife (gets a chunk of the old Glenrothes seat) Highland North (the former Caithness et al gets a big chunk from further south)
And Edinburgh West looks very vulnerable if SLab experience a surge.
Reliant on some smart tactical choices from voters on the ground in Edinburgh from the looks of it. Interesting that Burgessian reckons Fife is probably held.
NE Fife ought to be safe if the local Tories decamp en masse back to the SLDs. With Brexit such a disaster that looks likely throughout rural Scotland.
Edinburgh West is fascinating. There is undoubtedly an uptick in SLab fortunes, which makes life very tricky indeed for the defending Lib Dems. They desperately need to attract as many local Tories as possible, but by doing so they will repel other voters to Labour and SNP. It is going to be one of very few genuine 3-way marginals. Not impossible the SNP slip through the middle.
I was shocked to discover that Twitter had 7,500 employees.
My jaw dropped when I discovered that Spotify has 10,000 people working for them. For what’s basically a music player.
What’s not been said with all the tech layoffs, is that most of these companies have *doubled* their workforces since the start of the pandemic. They’re mostly going back to the size they were about six months ago!
Someone pointed out the other day, that many of the the younger people in tech have not seen a real downturn. Sure, Musk chops his workforce from time to time - but he is weird. The others have grown as if it is inevitable to always employ more people.
EDIT: The idea of Spotify is something which is *supposed* to be ultra-automated.
Spotify sounds like it would take a great deal of admin for music rights around the world, banking different currencies, and translation into umpteen languages. That's beside the technical aspect.
What you are seeing is the tech companies reviewing what is actually doing stuff. Very easy to grow teams and functions that actually create negative net work.
Which is one of the problems of really big corporation and government. It is very very hard to do controlled burns there. So you end up with a really massive forest fire, from time to time, when it builds up to the point of failure.
I suspect what we are seeing are unstructured layoffs, and the tech firms will sort the details out later.
Out of 10.4 GW of UK's offshore wind energy capacity 7.3% is owned by UK entities; 92.7% is owned by non-UK entities.
UK's off-shore wind power is not really our wind - it is owned by others. Yet we are told that the UK has a world-beating wind power industry.
The UK sometimes seems like the national equivalent of people who buy an iPhone on an overpriced 3 year contract.
Persuade me I'm wrong.
I cannot.
Indeed my hypothesis is that the UK’s attachment to the “premier football” economic model is almost unique in the Western world, save perhaps New Zealand.
NZ at least has a thriving farming sector which by default spreads wealth around the country, even if everything else is owned overseas.
The UK’s model suits various rentiers, deal-makers and derivative-definers in London.
I was shocked to discover that Twitter had 7,500 employees.
My jaw dropped when I discovered that Spotify has 10,000 people working for them. For what’s basically a music player.
What’s not been said with all the tech layoffs, is that most of these companies have *doubled* their workforces since the start of the pandemic. They’re mostly going back to the size they were about six months ago!
Someone pointed out the other day, that many of the the younger people in tech have not seen a real downturn. Sure, Musk chops his workforce from time to time - but he is weird. The others have grown as if it is inevitable to always employ more people.
EDIT: The idea of Spotify is something which is *supposed* to be ultra-automated.
Spotify sounds like it would take a great deal of admin for music rights around the world, banking different currencies, and translation into umpteen languages. That's beside the technical aspect.
What you are seeing is the tech companies reviewing what is actually doing stuff. Very easy to grow teams and functions that actually create negative net work.
Which is one of the problems of really big corporation and government. It is very very hard to do controlled burns there. So you end up with a really massive forest fire, from time to time, when it builds up to the point of failure.
I suspect what we are seeing are unstructured layoffs, and the tech firms will sort the details out later.
It's a chain reaction. A couple of companies did lay-offs, and the others are saying: "Why don't we do it as well? It'll help the bottom line." In some cases they'll be laying off the 'right' people; in some they'll be laying off people they need.
I think LibDems are safe almost nowhere, maybe in places where they have a big lead over Tories, but half their previous voters could go to Starmer next time even if the Tories recover.
Google pay offs for staff laid off. Is very generous.
If I was offered this tomorrow where I work I’d snap their hand off
“Don't worry too much about the people being laid off from Google. Here's the severance they'll get:
- 16 weeks of base pay - 2 additional weeks of pay for every year they were at Google - 16 weeks of accelerated share vesting - 6 months of healthcare”
It's not bad but with thousands being laid off simultaneously across the industry, some might find it hard to get a new job.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
It is a curious thing that of the 8 LD holdouts in 2015, which you might think must be their absolute core seats, only 2 are held today - Orkney and Shetland, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.
They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.
North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
According to Baxter, the new boundaries mean the SLD have lost 2 seats: North East Fife (gets a chunk of the old Glenrothes seat) Highland North (the former Caithness et al gets a big chunk from further south)
And Edinburgh West looks very vulnerable if SLab experience a surge.
Reliant on some smart tactical choices from voters on the ground in Edinburgh from the looks of it. Interesting that Burgessian reckons Fife is probably held.
NE Fife ought to be safe if the local Tories decamp en masse back to the SLDs. With Brexit such a disaster that looks likely throughout rural Scotland.
Edinburgh West is fascinating. There is undoubtedly an uptick in SLab fortunes, which makes life very tricky indeed for the defending Lib Dems. They desperately need to attract as many local Tories as possible, but by doing so they will repel other voters to Labour and SNP. It is going to be one of very few genuine 3-way marginals. Not impossible the SNP slip through the middle.
I think its worth bearing in mind when looking at the Scottish polling that the votes of the three unionist parties are becoming ever more geographically concentrated. That's why I think the LibDems are home and dry in Edinburgh W - the equivalent Holyrood seat is rock solid and the LibDems are streets ahead at local govt level.
It's also why I think the Tories will do better in the seats they are defending than they do overall. They''ll probably crater in the Centra Belt but in the NE and South of Scotland, where Labour and the LibDems are nowhere their vote will be much more resilient. There have been some signs of this in recent council by-elections in Alister Jack's and Douglas Ross's seats where the Tory vote share actually went up, despite disaster everywhere else.
The Government approval and Sunak's approval numbers both down while Starmer's approval goes up and in the "best PM" contest, Starmer moves to a 5-point lead over Sunak (40-35).
Into the entrails and the 2019 Conservative vote splits 53% Conservative, 18% Labour, 14% Don't Know, 8% Reform and 4% LD.
The Conservatives lead 38-37 in the South East but trail 41-34 among over 65s.
Excluding the Don't Knows, the split for England is Labour 51%, Conservative 27%, Lib Dem 11%, Reform 7% and Green 3%. That's a swing of 18.5% from Conservative to Labour in England. That takes us to Amber Valley, the 260th most marginal Conservative seat.
Today's Deltapoll is 205 Conservative seats and a Labour majority of just 64 on the new boundaries, closer to 2005 than 1997
I think LibDems are safe almost nowhere, maybe in places where they have a big lead over Tories, but half their previous voters could go to Starmer next time even if the Tories recover.
I think this is just nonsense where they hold the seat - other than Scotland, they are all yellow-blue fights where they will romp home (by-elections gains aside, which are always tougher). There are also seats where Labour just aren't involved on the ground that they can gain.
Not saying "go back to your constituencies..." or that their polling numbers are good. But they are extremely safe in most of the limited number of places they hold.
I was shocked to discover that Twitter had 7,500 employees.
My jaw dropped when I discovered that Spotify has 10,000 people working for them. For what’s basically a music player.
What’s not been said with all the tech layoffs, is that most of these companies have *doubled* their workforces since the start of the pandemic. They’re mostly going back to the size they were about six months ago!
Someone pointed out the other day, that many of the the younger people in tech have not seen a real downturn. Sure, Musk chops his workforce from time to time - but he is weird. The others have grown as if it is inevitable to always employ more people.
EDIT: The idea of Spotify is something which is *supposed* to be ultra-automated.
Spotify sounds like it would take a great deal of admin for music rights around the world, banking different currencies, and translation into umpteen languages. That's beside the technical aspect.
What you are seeing is the tech companies reviewing what is actually doing stuff. Very easy to grow teams and functions that actually create negative net work.
Which is one of the problems of really big corporation and government. It is very very hard to do controlled burns there. So you end up with a really massive forest fire, from time to time, when it builds up to the point of failure.
I suspect what we are seeing are unstructured layoffs, and the tech firms will sort the details out later.
There were reports last year, of a similar attitude towards hiring. They’d hire any ‘talent’ they could find, and work out what to do with them later. More important, was that they didn’t join the competition.
I was at company x/z for five years. In that time, I think we had four hiring sprees and five redundancy rounds. It was manic.
The worst was when we were all told one morning to go to the church across the road (the only space big enough to hold us all). The CEO told us that we would all get a personalised letter at the door, telling us all of our new position in the company. We were all handed a named letter as we left; people were crying in the church grounds.
I always felt it was a massively impersonal and sh*t way of handling it, especially as some of the people let go had been at the company for a decade or more. I survived that particular round.
Then again, there's probably no 'good' way of handling it.
I was at company x/z for five years. In that time, I think we had four hiring sprees and five redundancy rounds. It was manic.
The worst was when we were all told one morning to go to the church across the road (the only space big enough to hold us all). The CEO told us that we would all get a personalised letter at the door, telling us all of our new position in the company. We were all handed a named letter as we left; people were crying in the church grounds.
I always felt it was a massively impersonal and sh*t way of handling it, especially as some of the people let go had been at the company for a decade or more. I survived that particular round.
Then again, there's probably no 'good' way of handling it.
Probably the only way of doing it even worse than that is doing basically the same thing except remotely over Teams/Zoom...
I was at company x/z for five years. In that time, I think we had four hiring sprees and five redundancy rounds. It was manic.
The worst was when we were all told one morning to go to the church across the road (the only space big enough to hold us all). The CEO told us that we would all get a personalised letter at the door, telling us all of our new position in the company. We were all handed a named letter as we left; people were crying in the church grounds.
I always felt it was a massively impersonal and sh*t way of handling it, especially as some of the people let go had been at the company for a decade or more. I survived that particular round.
Then again, there's probably no 'good' way of handling it.
Probably the only way of doing it even worse than that is doing basically the same thing except remotely over Teams/Zoom...
Not sure. I think in some ways remotely is better in that people can deal with it in privacy.
The Government approval and Sunak's approval numbers both down while Starmer's approval goes up and in the "best PM" contest, Starmer moves to a 5-point lead over Sunak (40-35).
Into the entrails and the 2019 Conservative vote splits 53% Conservative, 18% Labour, 14% Don't Know, 8% Reform and 4% LD.
The Conservatives lead 38-37 in the South East but trail 41-34 among over 65s.
Excluding the Don't Knows, the split for England is Labour 51%, Conservative 27%, Lib Dem 11%, Reform 7% and Green 3%. That's a swing of 18.5% from Conservative to Labour in England. That takes us to Amber Valley, the 260th most marginal Conservative seat.
Today's Deltapoll is 205 Conservative seats and a Labour majority of just 64 on the new boundaries, closer to 2005 than 1997
Deltapoll is distinctly the most favourable pollster for the Cons. That doesn't mean that they are wrong of course. However, if your most favourable pollster has you losing by a landslide then maybe you are doing something wrong.
I was at company x/z for five years. In that time, I think we had four hiring sprees and five redundancy rounds. It was manic.
The worst was when we were all told one morning to go to the church across the road (the only space big enough to hold us all). The CEO told us that we would all get a personalised letter at the door, telling us all of our new position in the company. We were all handed a named letter as we left; people were crying in the church grounds.
I always felt it was a massively impersonal and sh*t way of handling it, especially as some of the people let go had been at the company for a decade or more. I survived that particular round.
Then again, there's probably no 'good' way of handling it.
Probably the only way of doing it even worse than that is doing basically the same thing except remotely over Teams/Zoom...
Not sure. I think in some ways remotely is better in that people can deal with it in privacy.
Maybe, but it's hugely impersonal. In that example, if you were so inclined to want privacy you could take your letter and open it at home. Your boss still had to turn up and explain in person why such drastic actions were needed in the first place.
If my boss/CEO/whomever is going to fire a whole load of folk in one go I'd want them to at least have the cojones to look those people in the eye and tell them why they're surplus to requirements.
If senior management are siloed away from the workforce because of the remote working arrangements it just increases the likelihood of them seeing that workforce as disposable.
I don’t know how often the wiki graph is updated, but it currently shows Labour going downwards and the Tories jumping upward quite steeply.
Are you living in an alternate reality? On what planet are the Tories going up?
As I predicted would happen, and did happen, the Tory’s enjoyed a good few weeks polling in early December, right across the board from nearly all pollsters - so not an alternate reality, the factual reality from December. Which I took flak for predicting would happen.
If you want to start a petition banning me from PB I would happily sign it. But I can’t post any more balanced, factual, and honest than I am already doing.
You predicted the polls would narrow actually. And they haven't.
I like you, why would I want you banned?
I just think you're not fooling anyone with this "I'm actually not a Tory honest" stuff lol
In Musk news, it turns out he doesn't even know how many characters a tweet can have:
"Yes, but obviously, there is a limit if you have 240 characters to what you can say. You can obviously be far more verbose in a filing, and everyone on Twitter understands that," Musk answered. (Twitter's character limit is 280 characters, but Musk repeatedly said it was 240 characters during his testimony.)"
I don’t know how often the wiki graph is updated, but it currently shows Labour going downwards and the Tories jumping upward quite steeply.
Are you living in an alternate reality? On what planet are the Tories going up?
As I predicted would happen, and did happen, the Tory’s enjoyed a good few weeks polling in early December, right across the board from nearly all pollsters - so not an alternate reality, the factual reality from December. Which I took flak for predicting would happen.
If you want to start a petition banning me from PB I would happily sign it. But I can’t post any more balanced, factual, and honest than I am already doing.
You predicted the polls would narrow actually. And they haven't.
I like you, why would I want you banned?
I just think you're not fooling anyone with this "I'm actually not a Tory honest" stuff lol
I agree. That snippet of a graph posted earlier actually showed the Tories bobbling along at a low poll rating; suggesting it showed a sharp increase was naughty, by the solid standards always maintained (HY excepted, obvs) on this site…
All the polling with a January field date and the average of the Labour lead is 20-21%. Nothing is really moving the dial for the Tories. Some comments on here after the Truss debacle and Sunak's accession were urging caution around polling and urging us to see how things would look in the New Year. Well the New Year is well and truly here and the Tories look like toast and Sunak looks like a busted flush. I still don't really see what moves the dial between now and 2024. Even if the rate of price rises slow, we're still going to be poorer, plus we now have more corruption and scandal.
I was at company x/z for five years. In that time, I think we had four hiring sprees and five redundancy rounds. It was manic.
The worst was when we were all told one morning to go to the church across the road (the only space big enough to hold us all). The CEO told us that we would all get a personalised letter at the door, telling us all of our new position in the company. We were all handed a named letter as we left; people were crying in the church grounds.
I always felt it was a massively impersonal and sh*t way of handling it, especially as some of the people let go had been at the company for a decade or more. I survived that particular round.
Then again, there's probably no 'good' way of handling it.
Probably the only way of doing it even worse than that is doing basically the same thing except remotely over Teams/Zoom...
Not sure. I think in some ways remotely is better in that people can deal with it in privacy.
Like the time Graeme Fowler faxed his then partner to end their relationship !
You’ve got a couple of likes for this post, but where is your reasoning? One bit of solid reasoning based on political history shoots down your post, as the election draws closer, those Tories claiming don’t know will swing back to saying Tory and the polls inventively narrow, not widen anywhere close to 30% this parliament. You would have to be arguing that Sunak and his government are so rubbish and can only go on being as hapless as they’ve been all year, this over compensates for the coming swing back. Is that your thinking? How about the news the economic headwinds have turned, there’s now no recession in 23 or 24, inflation widely predicted to drop like a stone making Sunak and Hunt appear economic wonderkinds? You factored that in?
these current two sleaze allegations can blow up and quickly blow away from here, with anger letting resignation or two, can’t they? You factored that in.
however, this twin scandal week of not paying tax and Amigo loan cash for prominent appointee jobs is already reaching out to suspect Covid contracts and health contracts and attaching themselves to those things, imo this could create the sense of a wider pandemic of sleaze.
Yeah and they said I was mad when I said Labour would lead and then mad when I said they'd lead by 20 points.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
It is a curious thing that of the 8 LD holdouts in 2015, which you might think must be their absolute core seats, only 2 are held today - Orkney and Shetland, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.
They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.
North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
According to Baxter, the new boundaries mean the SLD have lost 2 seats: North East Fife (gets a chunk of the old Glenrothes seat) Highland North (the former Caithness et al gets a big chunk from further south)
And Edinburgh West looks very vulnerable if SLab experience a surge.
Reliant on some smart tactical choices from voters on the ground in Edinburgh from the looks of it. Interesting that Burgessian reckons Fife is probably held.
NE Fife ought to be safe if the local Tories decamp en masse back to the SLDs. With Brexit such a disaster that looks likely throughout rural Scotland.
Edinburgh West is fascinating. There is undoubtedly an uptick in SLab fortunes, which makes life very tricky indeed for the defending Lib Dems. They desperately need to attract as many local Tories as possible, but by doing so they will repel other voters to Labour and SNP. It is going to be one of very few genuine 3-way marginals. Not impossible the SNP slip through the middle.
If the SNP keep their promise to make the next GE a proto-referendum on Indy, whilst I suspect this will shore up a lot of their existing support, they aren’t going to be slipping anywhere through the middle….
Probable Lib Dem gains if you want to make some money.
Guildford Winchester
I think punters might see those coming, so you won’t get rich…
Digging about in that recent Opinium MRP data throws up some potential LibDem long shots that might make you rich, if BFE or Smart offer the right markets…
Probable Lib Dem gains if you want to make some money.
Guildford Winchester
I think punters might see those coming, so you won’t get rich…
Digging about in that recent Opinium MRP data throws up some potential LibDem long shots that might make you rich, if BFE or Smart offer the right markets…
I mentioned these some time back, if you'd put money on then you'd be doing ok
Starmer leads Sunak on ALL attributes bar personal health (tied)
Starmer leads on:
Can bring British people together (45% | 25%) Cares about people like me (42% | 21%) Can build a strong economy (39% | 35%) Knows how to get things done (35% | 31%)
You’ve got a couple of likes for this post, but where is your reasoning? One bit of solid reasoning based on political history shoots down your post, as the election draws closer, those Tories claiming don’t know will swing back to saying Tory and the polls inventively narrow, not widen anywhere close to 30% this parliament. You would have to be arguing that Sunak and his government are so rubbish and can only go on being as hapless as they’ve been all year, this over compensates for the coming swing back. Is that your thinking? How about the news the economic headwinds have turned, there’s now no recession in 23 or 24, inflation widely predicted to drop like a stone making Sunak and Hunt appear economic wonderkinds? You factored that in?
these current two sleaze allegations can blow up and quickly blow away from here, with anger letting resignation or two, can’t they? You factored that in.
however, this twin scandal week of not paying tax and Amigo loan cash for prominent appointee jobs is already reaching out to suspect Covid contracts and health contracts and attaching themselves to those things, imo this could create the sense of a wider pandemic of sleaze.
Because there are posters on this site with a good track record of mostly putting their own views aside to analyse the politics to try and identify good betting opportunities.
Then there are those who have all too evidently allowed their partisan bias to inform what they purport to post as objective, if self-evidently flaky, analysis.
Then there are those in the middle like me who try to aspire to the former but sometimes struggle.
Like CHB, I’d guess that most PB’ers have you in the second camp. If it’s any consolation, CHB is with me in the third camp and for balance there are those like Heathener from the left also the second camp.
The Government approval and Sunak's approval numbers both down while Starmer's approval goes up and in the "best PM" contest, Starmer moves to a 5-point lead over Sunak (40-35).
Into the entrails and the 2019 Conservative vote splits 53% Conservative, 18% Labour, 14% Don't Know, 8% Reform and 4% LD.
The Conservatives lead 38-37 in the South East but trail 41-34 among over 65s.
Excluding the Don't Knows, the split for England is Labour 51%, Conservative 27%, Lib Dem 11%, Reform 7% and Green 3%. That's a swing of 18.5% from Conservative to Labour in England. That takes us to Amber Valley, the 260th most marginal Conservative seat.
Today's Deltapoll is 205 Conservative seats and a Labour majority of just 64 on the new boundaries, closer to 2005 than 1997
I don’t know how often the wiki graph is updated, but it currently shows Labour going downwards and the Tories jumping upward quite steeply.
Are you living in an alternate reality? On what planet are the Tories going up?
As I predicted would happen, and did happen, the Tory’s enjoyed a good few weeks polling in early December, right across the board from nearly all pollsters - so not an alternate reality, the factual reality from December. Which I took flak for predicting would happen.
If you want to start a petition banning me from PB I would happily sign it. But I can’t post any more balanced, factual, and honest than I am already doing.
You predicted the polls would narrow actually. And they haven't.
I like you, why would I want you banned?
I just think you're not fooling anyone with this "I'm actually not a Tory honest" stuff lol
I’ve never voted Tory from 2016 locals onward, and deffo won’t in next general election. Honest.
There’s a very long list of totally unsuitable people who have been somehow elected to Parliament, but Jared O’Mara is quite possibly the worst of the lot.
Robert Maxwell? Cyril Smith? Boris Johnson?
O'Mara may well have been the most useless MP of all time, even if it he was clearly not the most malevolent. An utter waste of space of an MP, and it's hard to picture how he got through even a rushed local selection process.
Jared O'Mara was only supposed to be a paper candidate. How could former Deputy Prime Minister and LibDem leader Nick Clegg lose?
It is a curious thing that of the 8 LD holdouts in 2015, which you might think must be their absolute core seats, only 2 are held today - Orkney and Shetland, and Westmoreland and Lonsdale.
Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.
They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.
North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
According to Baxter, the new boundaries mean the SLD have lost 2 seats: North East Fife (gets a chunk of the old Glenrothes seat) Highland North (the former Caithness et al gets a big chunk from further south)
And Edinburgh West looks very vulnerable if SLab experience a surge.
The LibDems in Scotland have always been utterly reliant on tactical voting, and for that reason, I doubt that Edinburgh West is really under threat. Will Unionist Labs lending their votes to Libs really risk an SNP victory by moving away from them? I don't buy it.
Highland North will - I suspect - be an easy SNP gain.
Fife depends on the extent to which the LDs can persuade Labour voters in Glenrothes that they now need to vote tactically for the LDs. I'd make the SNP favorites, but not massive ones.
Next GE has to be no later than two years tomorrow, 24th January 2025.
But since that's a Friday, it probably has to be no later than two years from today: Thursday 23rd January 2025.
Plenty of time for the polls to turn. (They won't.)
The more interesting question is whether Sunak survives to the GE. I have tended to think that he will, simply because the Tories have already tried voters’ patience enough with their puerile infighting, have no solidly convincing leaders in waiting, and surely won’t be dumb enough to return to the clown. But Sunak’s hardly exhibiting strong-footed leadership, so you do begin to wonder…
Never mind bizarre finding, it's a bizarre question.
Commissioned by the United Feline Alliance, apparently, whose CEO Ginger Tom has been remarkably silent about exactly why he needed the question asked.
I don’t know how often the wiki graph is updated, but it currently shows Labour going downwards and the Tories jumping upward quite steeply.
Are you living in an alternate reality? On what planet are the Tories going up?
As I predicted would happen, and did happen, the Tory’s enjoyed a good few weeks polling in early December, right across the board from nearly all pollsters - so not an alternate reality, the factual reality from December. Which I took flak for predicting would happen.
If you want to start a petition banning me from PB I would happily sign it. But I can’t post any more balanced, factual, and honest than I am already doing.
You predicted the polls would narrow actually. And they haven't.
I like you, why would I want you banned?
I just think you're not fooling anyone with this "I'm actually not a Tory honest" stuff lol
I agree. That snippet of a graph posted earlier actually showed the Tories bobbling along at a low poll rating; suggesting it showed a sharp increase was naughty, by the solid standards always maintained (HY excepted, obvs) on this site…
I wasn’t mentioning level but direction on graph. And I was spot on, asking when was this graph last updated, because table underneath doesn’t reflect it, and Sunil replied not recently.
Next GE has to be no later than two years tomorrow, 24th January 2025.
But since that's a Friday, it probably has to be no later than two years from today: Thursday 23rd January 2025.
Plenty of time for the polls to turn. (They won't.)
The more interesting question is whether Sunak survives to the GE. I have tended to think that he will, simply because the Tories have already tried voters’ patience enough with their puerile infighting, have no solidly convincing leaders in waiting, and surely won’t be dumb enough to return to the clown. But Sunak’s hardly exhibiting strong-footed leadership, so you do begin to wonder…
Sunak is surprising on the downside, I really didn't expect him to be such a dipstick.
The Government approval and Sunak's approval numbers both down while Starmer's approval goes up and in the "best PM" contest, Starmer moves to a 5-point lead over Sunak (40-35).
Into the entrails and the 2019 Conservative vote splits 53% Conservative, 18% Labour, 14% Don't Know, 8% Reform and 4% LD.
The Conservatives lead 38-37 in the South East but trail 41-34 among over 65s.
Excluding the Don't Knows, the split for England is Labour 51%, Conservative 27%, Lib Dem 11%, Reform 7% and Green 3%. That's a swing of 18.5% from Conservative to Labour in England. That takes us to Amber Valley, the 260th most marginal Conservative seat.
Today's Deltapoll is 205 Conservative seats and a Labour majority of just 64 on the new boundaries, closer to 2005 than 1997
Note the terrible mileages electrified under allegedly rail-hating Thatcher, and the massive mileages under rail-loving New Labour...
Edit: I guess the off-topic means I've triggered someone...
They've missed the Chase Line (2019) off the list.
In defence of New Labour, they did have to spend an absolute fortune sorting out the basic infrastructure before they could think of major improvements.* They did also four track the WCML and those lines were electrified in common with the existing lines.
*They would have spent much less of a fortune had they been any good at managing public money, but the Tories are no better with hs2.
Comments
Oh, bye then!
#YourManWho'sNeverBeenToSheffield
Which is one of the problems of really big corporation and government. It is very very hard to do controlled burns there. So you end up with a really massive forest fire, from time to time, when it builds up to the point of failure.
Jeremy Thorpe?
John Stonehouse?
The horrible thing about Jo Whiley's Shiny Happy Playlist was not that one was obliged to act a part, but, on the contrary, that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledge-hammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp.
When the farming subsidies were abandoned, the farmers were up in arms about all going bankrupt - yet they have absolutely thrived in the last couple of decades, becoming the largest export sector for their country.
Jared O’Mara - why, for the love of Cthulu?
I’ve come over all nostalgic for the 80s when Conservatives were about taking responsibility for one’s own actions. Or so they said anyway.
We’ve gone over the subsidy and constraint payment canard dozens of times on here before yet you always end up stating the same assumptions.
Constraint payments are a feature of regional imbalances, not national surplus, and insufficient grid carriage capacity largely because sometimes more wind power is generated in the North and Scotland than the grid capacity able to carry it South. Until recently it had to make its way down the equivalent of narrow b roads. The issue is being actively addressed by investment from national grid. Ie they are building big cables to carry the power to where it’s needed.
A lot of anti wind rhetoric seems to take one little issue (take your pick: planning eyesore
birds being hit by blades, what about when it’s calm, constraint payments etc) and conclude the answer is therefore to stop wind power and spend our money on old fossil fuel technologies instead. This ignores the problems with them (climate change aside there is air pollution, geopolitical risk, planning etc) and also ignores the fact that in most case there are solutions to the original issue.
At the age of three @solarflare had refused all toys except a drum, a
sub-machine gun, and a model exoskeleton. At six--a year early, by a special relaxation of the rules--he had joined the Spies, at nine he had been a troop leader. At eleven he had denounced his uncle to the Thought Police after overhearing a conversation which appeared to him to have Labour tendencies. At seventeen he had been a district organiser of the Junior Anti-Sex League. At nineteen he had designed an exoskeleton which had been adopted by the Ministry of Peace and which, at its first trial, had killed thirty-one Eurasian prisoners.
At twenty-three he had perished in action. Pursued by enemy jet planes while flying over the Indian Ocean with important despatches, he had weighted his body with his beloved exoskeleton and leapt out of the helicopter into deep water, despatches and all--an end, said Gloria, which it was impossible to contemplate without feelings of envy.
Diversion from the real issue.
Especially one with Boris Johnson in it?
Google pay offs for staff laid off. Is very generous.
If I was offered this tomorrow where I work I’d snap their hand off
“Don't worry too much about the people being laid off from Google. Here's the severance they'll get:
- 16 weeks of base pay
- 2 additional weeks of pay for every year they were at Google
- 16 weeks of accelerated share vesting
- 6 months of healthcare”
Same nonsense in NE England where the airport should have been south of the Tyne somewhere like Washington, where it would have been an easy reach from Tyneside, Wearside and Teesside. Instead its stuck out on the NW side of Newcastle.
- Clegg I assume lost Hallam when Tories stopped lending him support (though despite my jesting it is now very close Lab/LD)
- They lost Carshalton in 2019 (though should win it back next time).
- They lost North Norfolk in 2019 when Lamb retired, and it has a 14k Tory majority now.
- Leeds North West was lost in 2017 and they are now third and it has a 10k Lab majority.
- Southport was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
- Ceredigion was lost in 2017 and they are a distant third.
In the same period, in fairness, they have locked down what look like some pretty solid majorities in other places, though others are still pretty vulnerable and several of the Scottish seats look pretty lost for the next election if the SNP don't implode.- They regained longstanding LD seat Edinburgh West in 2017 and have a 3k majority
- Orkney remains safeish, though it's never regained its rock solid status since the SNP surge in 2015.
- They regained Oxford West and Abingdon in 2017 and now have a 9k majority
- North East Fife was regained in 2019 after missing out by 2 votes in 2017. It has a majority of 1.3k, so very vulnerable.
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross was regained in 2017 and is held with a 200 majority.
- Richmond Park was regained in 2019 with a near 8k majority.
- Westmoreland and Lonsdale seems like it should have fallen in 2019, but didnt, and has a 2k majority.
- Bath was regained in 2017 and now has a 12k majority.
- Twickenham was regained in 2017 and now has a 14k majority.
- Kingston and Surbiton was regained in 2017, and now has a 10k majority.
St Albans appears to be the only 'new' seat they've gained since 2015, in 2019 with a 6k majority.North Shropshire, Chesham and Amersham, and Tiverton and Honiton from by-elections will all be tough holds to say the least.
It is quite surprising that a third of the electorate have no strong feelings about the current PM and the current LOTO
NZ Population 5 million
UK population 67 million
North East Fife (gets a chunk of the old Glenrothes seat)
Highland North (the former Caithness et al gets a big chunk from further south)
And Edinburgh West looks very vulnerable if SLab experience a surge.
NZ has a massive advantage in farming due to our topography and (lack of) population.
It is our main export earner and government trade and regulatory policy remains focused on the furtherance of that.
On the other hand, NZ has failed to develop significant other sectors and “enjoys” a chronic trade deficit.
Unto itself there is no obvious lesson for the UK.
The headline Redfield & Wilton figures suggest little real change but there's plenty of interest in the data:
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-22-january-2023/
The Government approval and Sunak's approval numbers both down while Starmer's approval goes up and in the "best PM" contest, Starmer moves to a 5-point lead over Sunak (40-35).
Into the entrails and the 2019 Conservative vote splits 53% Conservative, 18% Labour, 14% Don't Know, 8% Reform and 4% LD.
The Conservatives lead 38-37 in the South East but trail 41-34 among over 65s.
Excluding the Don't Knows, the split for England is Labour 51%, Conservative 27%, Lib Dem 11%, Reform 7% and Green 3%. That's a swing of 18.5% from Conservative to Labour in England. That takes us to Amber Valley, the 260th most marginal Conservative seat.
Edinburgh West is fascinating. There is undoubtedly an uptick in SLab fortunes, which makes life very tricky indeed for the defending Lib Dems. They desperately need to attract as many local Tories as possible, but by doing so they will repel other voters to Labour and SNP. It is going to be one of very few genuine 3-way marginals. Not impossible the SNP slip through the middle.
It's also why I think the Tories will do better in the seats they are defending than they do overall. They''ll probably crater in the Centra Belt but in the NE and South of Scotland, where Labour and the LibDems are nowhere their vote will be much more resilient. There have been some signs of this in recent council by-elections in Alister Jack's and Douglas Ross's seats where the Tory vote share actually went up, despite disaster everywhere else.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=30&LAB=44&LIB=9&Reform=4&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=15.3&SCOTLAB=28&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=1&SCOTGreen=2.4&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Not saying "go back to your constituencies..." or that their polling numbers are good. But they are extremely safe in most of the limited number of places they hold.
It’s now quite likely we see the same in reverse.
The worst was when we were all told one morning to go to the church across the road (the only space big enough to hold us all). The CEO told us that we would all get a personalised letter at the door, telling us all of our new position in the company. We were all handed a named letter as we left; people were crying in the church grounds.
I always felt it was a massively impersonal and sh*t way of handling it, especially as some of the people let go had been at the company for a decade or more. I survived that particular round.
Then again, there's probably no 'good' way of handling it.
If my boss/CEO/whomever is going to fire a whole load of folk in one go I'd want them to at least have the cojones to look those people in the eye and tell them why they're surplus to requirements.
If senior management are siloed away from the workforce because of the remote working arrangements it just increases the likelihood of them seeing that workforce as disposable.
I like you, why would I want you banned?
I just think you're not fooling anyone with this "I'm actually not a Tory honest" stuff lol
"Yes, but obviously, there is a limit if you have 240 characters to what you can say. You can obviously be far more verbose in a filing, and everyone on Twitter understands that," Musk answered. (Twitter's character limit is 280 characters, but Musk repeatedly said it was 240 characters during his testimony.)"
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/01/musk-testifies-in-fraud-trial-points-out-that-not-everyone-believes-what-he-says/?
I'm guessing he's confused from when Twitter upped the limit from 140 to 280 characters, five or six years ago?
You on the other hand, have a very poor record.
Guildford
Winchester
Digging about in that recent Opinium MRP data throws up some potential LibDem long shots that might make you rich, if BFE or Smart offer the right markets…
Keir Starmer: +7% (+1)
Rishi Sunak: -15% (-5)
Jeremy Hunt: -15% (-4)
Changes +/- 15 January
Government Competency Rating (22 January):
Incompetent: 50% (+2)
Competent: 16% (-1)
Net: -34% (-3)
Changes +/- 15 January
Starmer leads Sunak on ALL attributes bar personal health (tied)
Starmer leads on:
Can bring British people together (45% | 25%)
Cares about people like me (42% | 21%)
Can build a strong economy (39% | 35%)
Knows how to get things done (35% | 31%)
Then there are those who have all too evidently allowed their partisan bias to inform what they purport to post as objective, if self-evidently flaky, analysis.
Then there are those in the middle like me who try to aspire to the former but sometimes struggle.
Like CHB, I’d guess that most PB’ers have you in the second camp. If it’s any consolation, CHB is with me in the third camp and for balance there are those like Heathener from the left also the second camp.
https://twitter.com/matthewhodg/status/1617557319826694144/photo/1
Note the terrible mileages electrified under allegedly rail-hating Thatcher, and the massive mileages under rail-loving New Labour...
Edit: I guess the off-topic means I've triggered someone...
34% of Brits and 31% of Americans believe they would lose a fight with a house cat.
https://twitter.com/LeoKearse/status/1617221971741409287
But since that's a Friday, it probably has to be no later than two years from today: Thursday 23rd January 2025.
Plenty of time for the polls to turn. (They won't.)
Highland North will - I suspect - be an easy SNP gain.
Fife depends on the extent to which the LDs can persuade Labour voters in Glenrothes that they now need to vote tactically for the LDs. I'd make the SNP favorites, but not massive ones.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
I wasn’t mentioning level but direction on graph. And I was spot on, asking when was this graph last updated, because table underneath doesn’t reflect it, and Sunil replied not recently.
Sorry if it meant anyone choked on their dinner 😤
Given the nature of most conversations on PB what exactly is the rationale for an off-topic button anyway?
I am beginning to think he won't last the year.
In defence of New Labour, they did have to spend an absolute fortune sorting out the basic infrastructure before they could think of major improvements.* They did also four track the WCML and those lines were electrified in common with the existing lines.
*They would have spent much less of a fortune had they been any good at managing public money, but the Tories are no better with hs2.