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By generation how party support has shifted since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 22 in General
imageBy generation how party support has shifted since GE2019 – politicalbetting.com

This very much highlights the challenge facing Sunak and his party – the Tories have lost most support amongst the age groups where traditionally they have been strong.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962
    And.... "1997 was substantially built on Tory abstention"
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,036
    Interesting that the oldies have swung away from the Tories but about half into don't know whereas for the middle aged it seems a much more emphatic swing straight to Labour. I think that makes sense - the Tories are still the Pensioners' party so it's logical their support there might be a bit more fundamentally sticky. They Got Brexit Done and maintained the Triple Lock, the pensioners' priorities. Whereas the poor Gen X working stiffs are really getting nothing from the government at all. Little wonder they are embracing an alternative with growing enthusiasm.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,356
    Biggest swing amongst the middle aged, no surprise as they are usually the swing voters
  • Tories are buggered aren't they?

    Under Sunak they are buggered fewer/less.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,148
    Do we have equivalent data for 1997?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,405
    edited January 19
    What surprised me about about that graph is that 50-60% of the 50+ 2019 Tory switchers *are* going to Labour, and that a remarkable near ~100% of the 25-50 switchers are Labour now. That can't be good news for Central Office.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962
    edited January 19

    Do we have equivalent data for 1997?

    I think modern transfer data is hard to come by, but this Australian paper has some soft analysis, and on the raw numbers the Tory vote fell by 2.3x the amount the Labour vote increased, leading to a 6% turnout drop.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/Archived

    EDIT: Apologies, I accessed this about 4 weeks ago. I'll hunt down the correct link.
  • Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.
  • If you're not 95 why on Earth would you vote Tory? They've fucked us, time to fuck the pensioners too.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,594

    Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.

    It was after the incredibly NIMBYISH Lib Dem by election win in Chesham and Amersham that the Tories rolled back their plans to liberalise planning laws to increase housing supply.

    We are not building enough homes. I cannot see that changing.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,594

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I love that line about Bugs Bunny sneaking up on Elmer Fudd
  • If you're not 95 why on Earth would you vote Tory? They've fucked us, time to fuck the pensioners too.

    Some of us are not old but are old enough to remember that Labour fucked us even more. The problems the young suffer from today like house prices, tuition fees etc were mostly started in Labour's time.

    But yes, the Tories don't deserve our votes either.

    And the Lib Dems pander to NIMBYs.

    There's nobody good to vote for. Almost enough to put you off politics altogether.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,816

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I posted that yesterday. It highlights one of the big issues with current 'AI' approaches.
  • If you're not 95 why on Earth would you vote Tory? They've fucked us, time to fuck the pensioners too.

    Some of us are not old but are old enough to remember that Labour fucked us even more. The problems the young suffer from today like house prices, tuition fees etc were mostly started in Labour's time.

    But yes, the Tories don't deserve our votes either.

    And the Lib Dems pander to NIMBYs.

    There's nobody good to vote for. Almost enough to put you off politics altogether.
    I've given up following it except for reading what is posted here. Much easier life
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 28,188
    FPT:

    The UK's largest independent oil and gas producer says it's reviewing its operations and cutting investment due to the country's windfall tax

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1615988783194804224

    'Reviewing' is something of a misnomer. They have already reviewed and reassigned the investment to other regions. Nor are they alone sadly.
    Thanks for your earlier response. The licensing round was in October, but my understanding is that awards for licenses won't be made till next year.

    The whole process should have been fast tracked, and yes, without the disincentives introduced by Hunt and Sunak.
    Not quite sure you understand the complexity of the licencing system. Some licences - near field exploration etc - will be fast tracked. But there will be competing bids for licences (or would have been before the tax changes) and they have to be properly assessed. There are loads of small start up companies - usually run by ex senior managers from bigger oil companies - that put in bids for the licences. We know from bitter experience that their plans ned to be assessed in great detail.

    Besides, even if the licences were awarded today it will be 5-7 years before you see any hydrocarbons from them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,869
    Mr. Eagles, the cardboard box disguise worked well for Solid Snake.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
  • If you're not 95 why on Earth would you vote Tory? They've fucked us, time to fuck the pensioners too.

    Some of us are not old but are old enough to remember that Labour fucked us even more. The problems the young suffer from today like house prices, tuition fees etc were mostly started in Labour's time.

    But yes, the Tories don't deserve our votes either.

    And the Lib Dems pander to NIMBYs.

    There's nobody good to vote for. Almost enough to put you off politics altogether.
    I've given up following it except for reading what is posted here. Much easier life
    I'm not even reading what is posted here much anymore either. Think this is the first time in a week I've been to the site.

    Hard to stay interested when everything sucks and there's nothing to interest you. For me voting is a civil responsibility, but what do you do when there's nobody to vote for?

    Think I'll spoil my ballot next time by writing something like "build more houses" on it. None of the parties deserve my vote, but I won't simply not go to the ballot box.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    Taz said:

    Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.

    It was after the incredibly NIMBYISH Lib Dem by election win in Chesham and Amersham that the Tories rolled back their plans to liberalise planning laws to increase housing supply.

    We are not building enough homes. I cannot see that changing.
    If we really wanted to build enough new homes over say the next 5-7 years then forgetting everything else presumably we would need a very big number of immigrant builders and trades? Which is not going to be popular either.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,941

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I'm particularly intrigued by 'walked like a fir tree'. Never having seen this phenomenon in the wild, I'm wondering in exactly what manner they walk. Does anyone have a link to a video?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093

    Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.

    Somewhat weeping statements (not necessarily all wrong).

    HYUFD is that you?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    mwadams said:

    What surprised me about about that graph is that 50-60% of the 50+ 2019 Tory switchers *are* going to Labour, and that a remarkable near ~100% of the 25-50 switchers are Labour now. That can't be good news for Central Office.

    Given that the Tories are majoring on culture wars, to the degree that (most recently) they are abandoning Mrs May's policies on trans, that doesn't help them keep the young and the more liberal middle aged.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,876
    edited January 19

    Interesting that the oldies have swung away from the Tories but about half into don't know whereas for the middle aged it seems a much more emphatic swing straight to Labour. I think that makes sense - the Tories are still the Pensioners' party so it's logical their support there might be a bit more fundamentally sticky. They Got Brexit Done and maintained the Triple Lock, the pensioners' priorities. Whereas the poor Gen X working stiffs are really getting nothing from the government at all. Little wonder they are embracing an alternative with growing enthusiasm.

    Sticky Pensioners, yet another Pornhub category brought to you by PB.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506

    Tories are buggered aren't they?

    Under Sunak they are buggered fewer/less.

    Rubbish. People just can't accept that his Government is crap; he said life under him would be crap, and lo and behold it is crap. It was entirely predictable and only those with no policital nous thought that just by wearing a nice suit and being 'sensible', he would be of some inherent benefit.
  • Taz said:

    Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.

    It was after the incredibly NIMBYISH Lib Dem by election win in Chesham and Amersham that the Tories rolled back their plans to liberalise planning laws to increase housing supply.

    We are not building enough homes. I cannot see that changing.
    If we really wanted to build enough new homes over say the next 5-7 years then forgetting everything else presumably we would need a very big number of immigrant builders and trades? Which is not going to be popular either.
    Why would we?

    I have no objection to that, but the alternative is that we could pay a good wage to people with skills, or apprentices to those jobs too.

    In any industry the overwhelming majority of people working in the sector are UK nationals and immigrants make a small proportion, if you want to attract a lot of people to work for you then paying a good wage is the best starting point. If you're paying a good wage and attracting migrants as well as UK nationals, then there's nothing wrong with that - if you want to only attract migrants as you can't hire UK nationals for minimum wage, then that's a you problem.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    Selebian said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I'm particularly intrigued by 'walked like a fir tree'. Never having seen this phenomenon in the wild, I'm wondering in exactly what manner they walk. Does anyone have a link to a video?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymakezVgkW8

    1:00 on.
  • Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.

    Somewhat weeping statements (not necessarily all wrong).

    HYUFD is that you?
    No, HYUFD wouldn't have added the "as a class" qualifier that showed it was speaking generally for averages and not for all people like that.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Interesting that the oldies have swung away from the Tories but about half into don't know whereas for the middle aged it seems a much more emphatic swing straight to Labour. I think that makes sense - the Tories are still the Pensioners' party so it's logical their support there might be a bit more fundamentally sticky. They Got Brexit Done and maintained the Triple Lock, the pensioners' priorities. Whereas the poor Gen X working stiffs are really getting nothing from the government at all. Little wonder they are embracing an alternative with growing enthusiasm.

    Sticky Pensioners, yet another Pornhub category brought to you by PB.
    Is it the Golden Syrup, as in Good Housekeeping c. 1955, that does it?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,932
    Tories have comprehensively screwed up. They fully deserve defeat. The nation will be better off without them.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,941
    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322
    edited January 19

    Taz said:

    Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.

    It was after the incredibly NIMBYISH Lib Dem by election win in Chesham and Amersham that the Tories rolled back their plans to liberalise planning laws to increase housing supply.

    We are not building enough homes. I cannot see that changing.
    If we really wanted to build enough new homes over say the next 5-7 years then forgetting everything else presumably we would need a very big number of immigrant builders and trades? Which is not going to be popular either.
    Why would we?

    I have no objection to that, but the alternative is that we could pay a good wage to people with skills, or apprentices to those jobs too.

    In any industry the overwhelming majority of people working in the sector are UK nationals and immigrants make a small proportion, if you want to attract a lot of people to work for you then paying a good wage is the best starting point. If you're paying a good wage and attracting migrants as well as UK nationals, then there's nothing wrong with that - if you want to only attract migrants as you can't hire UK nationals for minimum wage, then that's a you problem.
    https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/skills/construction-needs-over-a-quarter-of-a-million-extra-workers-by-2026-14-06-2022/

    We need a quarter of a million extra for the current level of construction. To double new houses is going to take a lot of extra workers.

    Lots of sectors are short of workers, we can't just offer good wages and conditions and fill them all, the numbers don't add up.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,148
    Selebian said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I'm particularly intrigued by 'walked like a fir tree'. Never having seen this phenomenon in the wild, I'm wondering in exactly what manner they walk. Does anyone have a link to a video?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D_x-oUjClE
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,941
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I'm particularly intrigued by 'walked like a fir tree'. Never having seen this phenomenon in the wild, I'm wondering in exactly what manner they walk. Does anyone have a link to a video?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymakezVgkW8

    1:00 on.
    May be my intelligence is insufficiently developed, but I still parse those as people pretending to be trees :disappointed:
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962
    Pro_Rata said:

    Do we have equivalent data for 1997?

    I think modern transfer data is hard to come by, but this Australian paper has some soft analysis, and on the raw numbers the Tory vote fell by 2.3x the amount the Labour vote increased, leading to a 6% turnout drop.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/Archived

    EDIT: Apologies, I accessed this about 4 weeks ago. I'll hunt down the correct link.
    OK, hoping this will work, a search of the Australian archive with the word Putney in it heads straight to the document page for me.

    https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;adv=yes;orderBy=customrank;page=0;query=1997 UK general election putney;rec=6;resCount=Default
  • Taz said:

    Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.

    It was after the incredibly NIMBYISH Lib Dem by election win in Chesham and Amersham that the Tories rolled back their plans to liberalise planning laws to increase housing supply.

    We are not building enough homes. I cannot see that changing.
    If we really wanted to build enough new homes over say the next 5-7 years then forgetting everything else presumably we would need a very big number of immigrant builders and trades? Which is not going to be popular either.
    Why would we?

    I have no objection to that, but the alternative is that we could pay a good wage to people with skills, or apprentices to those jobs too.

    In any industry the overwhelming majority of people working in the sector are UK nationals and immigrants make a small proportion, if you want to attract a lot of people to work for you then paying a good wage is the best starting point. If you're paying a good wage and attracting migrants as well as UK nationals, then there's nothing wrong with that - if you want to only attract migrants as you can't hire UK nationals for minimum wage, then that's a you problem.
    https://www.constructionnews.co.uk/skills/construction-needs-over-a-quarter-of-a-million-extra-workers-by-2026-14-06-2022/

    We need a quarter of a million extra for the current level of construction. To double new houses is going to take a lot of extra workers.

    Lots of sectors are short of workers, we can't just offer good wages and conditions and fill them all, the numbers don't add up.
    Sure we can.

    There's lots of people working unproductive jobs. There's lots of unproductive businesses.

    Pay goes up, the productive jobs do well, then unproductive jobs die. Those who were working in unproductive jobs get freed up to do more productive ones.

    That's how competition works. We need to let unproductive jobs die and good pay rises for the productive businesses outcompeting the unproductive ones is a part of that.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    Jonathan said:

    Tories have comprehensively screwed up. They fully deserve defeat. The nation will be better off without them.

    But what's Starmer's solution to public sector productivity? Record levels of taxation? Public debt? Energy bills? Boats? I can't see any hot topic where he isn't further down the rabbit hole of stupidity than the current Government.
  • Culture wars are killing the Tories.

    They've had plenty of warning from me about this, I said people will say "I can't afford to eat why on Earth are you telling me about trans rights"
  • Cameron understood this, the Tories need to go back to the centre ground.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 38,072

    If you're not 95 why on Earth would you vote Tory? They've fucked us, time to fuck the pensioners too.

    You stupid clown, are you on drugs.
  • Jonathan said:

    Tories have comprehensively screwed up. They fully deserve defeat. The nation will be better off without them.

    But what's Starmer's solution to public sector productivity? Record levels of taxation? Public debt? Energy bills? Boats? I can't see any hot topic where he isn't further down the rabbit hole of stupidity than the current Government.
    You literally supported Liz Truss. You are incapable of rational thought.
  • malcolmg said:

    If you're not 95 why on Earth would you vote Tory? They've fucked us, time to fuck the pensioners too.

    You stupid clown, are you on drugs.
    Hi mate how you keeping?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,778
    Interesting data. Thanks.

    Looking at comments about age groups and categories it seems to me that the assumption that only self interest is at work in voting needs to be challenged if only gently and slightly.

    Older voters who generally vote Tory as a whole (ignore party members and the intellectually challenged press) are moderates, who mostly supported Thatcher at the time because a radical change was called for at that time, following a fairly disastrous Labour government; and once elected in 1979 during the Thatcher years the Labour party went rapidly insane leading to a stupendous split. Labour were essentially unelectable for years, as they were later in 2019.

    In abandoning the Tories for the Don't Knows, moderate older Tories are exercising rational caution. As one of them if asked now who I would vote for today the answer is: Labour. But if the Burgon/Pidcock/Jezza tendency got a look in the answer would instantly change. SKS knows this.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,976

    Interesting that the oldies have swung away from the Tories but about half into don't know whereas for the middle aged it seems a much more emphatic swing straight to Labour. I think that makes sense - the Tories are still the Pensioners' party so it's logical their support there might be a bit more fundamentally sticky. They Got Brexit Done and maintained the Triple Lock, the pensioners' priorities. Whereas the poor Gen X working stiffs are really getting nothing from the government at all. Little wonder they are embracing an alternative with growing enthusiasm.

    Sticky Pensioners, yet another Pornhub category brought to you by PB.
    And much talk of "fucking" them from BR and CHB.

    It's raunchy as hell on here.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 38,072

    Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.

    Some real thick halfwits on here. For dummies, yes you BART SIMPSON, not all pensioners own homes , many have next to no personal pensions and get £9K a year and teh ones who vote Tory are loaded and woudl not even worry about the paltry amount the triple lock gives them.
    It is ignoramus Tories like you that have ensured they are hated throughout the land.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    Selebian said:

    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I'm particularly intrigued by 'walked like a fir tree'. Never having seen this phenomenon in the wild, I'm wondering in exactly what manner they walk. Does anyone have a link to a video?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ymakezVgkW8

    1:00 on.
    May be my intelligence is insufficiently developed, but I still parse those as people pretending to be trees :disappointed:
    Ah, well, you're a meat intelligence. Obvcs much cleverer than the robot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Sweden will send about 50 IFV CV90 tracked vehicles and Archer artillery systems to Ukraine.
    The CV90 is used to transport up to 8 infantry troops and is equipped with a 40mm Bofors automatic gun.
    The package is worth SEK 4.3 billion ($419 million)

    https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1616025419693670405

    Archer is a 155mm howitzer on a Volvo truck.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archer_Artillery_System

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Selebian said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I'm particularly intrigued by 'walked like a fir tree'. Never having seen this phenomenon in the wild, I'm wondering in exactly what manner they walk. Does anyone have a link to a video?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D_x-oUjClE
    Oddly enough I think the robot would have had that down as human - bipedal, using arms as balance as part of the gait, where you or I would suss it as something else.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316

    Tories are buggered aren't they?

    Under Sunak they are buggered fewer/less.

    Rubbish. People just can't accept that his Government is crap; he said life under him would be crap, and lo and behold it is crap. It was entirely predictable and only those with no policital nous thought that just by wearing a nice suit and being 'sensible', he would be of some inherent benefit.
    Tell us about all those alternative Tory administrations which will do better,
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 38,072
    kinabalu said:

    Interesting that the oldies have swung away from the Tories but about half into don't know whereas for the middle aged it seems a much more emphatic swing straight to Labour. I think that makes sense - the Tories are still the Pensioners' party so it's logical their support there might be a bit more fundamentally sticky. They Got Brexit Done and maintained the Triple Lock, the pensioners' priorities. Whereas the poor Gen X working stiffs are really getting nothing from the government at all. Little wonder they are embracing an alternative with growing enthusiasm.

    Sticky Pensioners, yet another Pornhub category brought to you by PB.
    And much talk of "fucking" them from BR and CHB.

    It's raunchy as hell on here.
    More like the loonies have escaped the asylum
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,148
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Do we have equivalent data for 1997?

    I think modern transfer data is hard to come by, but this Australian paper has some soft analysis, and on the raw numbers the Tory vote fell by 2.3x the amount the Labour vote increased, leading to a 6% turnout drop.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/Archived

    EDIT: Apologies, I accessed this about 4 weeks ago. I'll hunt down the correct link.
    OK, hoping this will work, a search of the Australian archive with the word Putney in it heads straight to the document page for me.

    https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;adv=yes;orderBy=customrank;page=0;query=1997 UK general election putney;rec=6;resCount=Default
    The standout there is

    Table 1. Change in Aggregate Vote 1992-1997
    Party, 1992, 1997, Difference
    Conservative, 14092891, 9590565, -4502326
    Labour, 11559384, 13551381, +1991997
    Liberal Democrats, 5999384, 5243322, -756062

    Sadly no breakdown by age group...
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,941

    Selebian said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I'm particularly intrigued by 'walked like a fir tree'. Never having seen this phenomenon in the wild, I'm wondering in exactly what manner they walk. Does anyone have a link to a video?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D_x-oUjClE
    Oh, I know how deciduous trees walk, obviously - saw that documentary series... Just never witnessed a fir tree walking.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 38,072

    malcolmg said:

    If you're not 95 why on Earth would you vote Tory? They've fucked us, time to fuck the pensioners too.

    You stupid clown, are you on drugs.
    Hi mate how you keeping?
    It seems a lot better than you are.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 38,072
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
    They could just programme them to shoot anything that moves
  • Jonathan said:

    Tories have comprehensively screwed up. They fully deserve defeat. The nation will be better off without them.

    But what's Starmer's solution to public sector productivity? Record levels of taxation? Public debt? Energy bills? Boats? I can't see any hot topic where he isn't further down the rabbit hole of stupidity than the current Government.
    Long term? Increasingly I think it’s the ban on MPs having second jobs and policies of that ilk. The latest Tortoise podcast (The Westminster Accounts) is very good on the way money is currently distorting politics, leading to non-optimal solutions and non-rational policies.

    I wonder if a lot of the ills you mention are emergent consequences from a complex system of money influencing decisions that is primarily (but not exclusively, hello David Lammy)a Tory problem.

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,405
    Jonathan said:

    Tories have comprehensively screwed up. They fully deserve defeat. The nation will be better off without them.

    Including the Tory Party. Until they are royally trounced, there can be no change, and no recovery. Some new generation of centre-right politicians needs to erase the memory of the last decade, and they won't do that with "Boris"-apologists and "but Truss was right about the policy"-istas.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,148
    edited January 19
    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I'm particularly intrigued by 'walked like a fir tree'. Never having seen this phenomenon in the wild, I'm wondering in exactly what manner they walk. Does anyone have a link to a video?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D_x-oUjClE
    Oh, I know how deciduous trees walk, obviously - saw that documentary series... Just never witnessed a fir tree walking.
    I think in the Battle for Isengard, we saw at least one evergreen.

    Unless Jackson failed, again, in diversity...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,148
    edited January 19
    malcolmg said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
    They could just programme them to shoot anything that moves
    Train the AI against a bunch of Marines who are paid in bottles of beer to come up with ways to defeat the AI.

    EDIT: A worse possibility, in some ways is this - non-lethal AI systems.
    We could, nearly, create a robot. Say a bit spider like. It wanders the battlefield. If it finds an enemy combatant (no RFID?) it handcuffs itself to the person in question. Now you are attached to 200K of hardened metal. If it finds a tank, it lethally stuffs a limb into the gun. etc.

    Flood the battlefield with those.

    Sounds nice? Candy coloured war? Then imagine in a situation where someone invades a country. Millions of those. Insurgency won't work....
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,941

    malcolmg said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
    They could just programme them to shoot anything that moves
    Train the AI against a bunch of Marines who are paid in bottles of beer to come up with ways to defeat the AI.
    That might end up with an AI that was very good at spotting drunken adversaries...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    edited January 19
    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
    Similarly the Boston Dynamics robot I posted a short video of yesterday. It's performing a programmed routine, but it wouldn't be able to perform the same activity in an unprogrammed situation.

    Point is though, that it's continual incremental progress, coupled with constant improvement in processing power - and punctuated by occasional breakthroughs.
    And none of this stuff is unlearned.

    Leon gets very excited that it's all here now. It isn't; but it will be.
  • Biggest swing here is those who are late middle aged. So not retired, and some way off retirement. If they were going to buy a house, they've started by now. Not particularly woke...

    What has the government done to hack them off? (Apart from generally being rubbish, natch.) Some of it will be that there are more 2019 Conservative voters who can shift, but surely not all of it is that
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    malcolmg said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
    They could just programme them to shoot anything that moves
    Wouldn't work very well in Kielder Forest on a windy day. Or with sheep around.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792
    The Koreans certainly know how to make tories want to buy something. How many flegs do you want on this? All of them.




    Baldy Ben is "reviewing" Challenger 3 now that MBTs are back in fashion after they were pronounced obsolete in March.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,941
    Nigelb said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
    Similarly the Boston Dynamics robot I posted a short video of yesterday. It's performing a programmed routine, but it wouldn't be able to perform the same activity in an unprogrammed situation.

    Point is though, that it's continual incremental progress, coupled with constant improvement in processing power - and punctuated by occasional breakthroughs.
    And none of this stuff is unlearned.
    Also shows why it takes a good couple of years to give a human enough training data to basically function. Many more years for higher reasoning, of course.
  • malcolmg said:

    Its housing, stupid.

    People without a home of their own vote Labour, as a class.

    People with a home owned outright vote Tory, as a class.

    People with a mortgage are the swing voters, as a class.

    The young are struggling to get on the property ladder, they're voting Labour anyway so will struggle to see much swing anyway.

    The elderly have paid off their mortgages and have a triple locked pension and no mortgage to worry about.

    The middle aged are seeing their wages go up by less than inflation while their mortgage costs shoot up, so swing voters are going to do what they do and swing.

    Some real thick halfwits on here. For dummies, yes you BART SIMPSON, not all pensioners own homes , many have next to no personal pensions and get £9K a year and teh ones who vote Tory are loaded and woudl not even worry about the paltry amount the triple lock gives them.
    It is ignoramus Tories like you that have ensured they are hated throughout the land.
    You want to find a dummy, thick halfwit then try looking in the mirror first.

    I said I was speaking in generalities "as a class". If you're incapable of reading comprehension, then that's not my problem.

    Yes there's some pensioners who are struggling. The solution is to deal with that, not piss billions up the wall maintaining the triple lock for those who aren't.

    Heck, you could fund a vast increase in Pension Credits or other support for struggling pensioners, if the well off pensioners faced the same marginal tax rate as the young do by abolishing the graduate tax and national insurance and taxing everyone on the same rate as their earnings.

    But you don't want to actually help struggling pensioners, you just want to pull the ladder up behind you and fuck anyone young or old who is struggling. Hence why you object to paying the same tax rate as everyone else.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Biggest swing here is those who are late middle aged. So not retired, and some way off retirement. If they were going to buy a house, they've started by now. Not particularly woke...

    What has the government done to hack them off? (Apart from generally being rubbish, natch.) Some of it will be that there are more 2019 Conservative voters who can shift, but surely not all of it is that

    Inflation. That's what so many people remmber of the 1970s. Permanent damage to savings, and to some extent to wages. They will still be talking of Tory inflation in 2050 and later.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,148
    Selebian said:

    malcolmg said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
    They could just programme them to shoot anything that moves
    Train the AI against a bunch of Marines who are paid in bottles of beer to come up with ways to defeat the AI.
    That might end up with an AI that was very good at spotting drunken adversaries...
    So 100% against Russians?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,816
    Nigelb said:

    Sweden will send about 50 IFV CV90 tracked vehicles and Archer artillery systems to Ukraine.
    The CV90 is used to transport up to 8 infantry troops and is equipped with a 40mm Bofors automatic gun.
    The package is worth SEK 4.3 billion ($419 million)

    https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1616025419693670405

    Archer is a 155mm howitzer on a Volvo truck.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archer_Artillery_System

    The northern and eastern European countries get it. By their own words, Russia wants dominion over much of Europe. We can choose to stop it now, or in five or ten years, when it will be much, much more expensive.

    This means we don't talk about giving Ukraine help. We don't equivocate. We don't do an "after-you" gambit. We give them what they need ASAP, so they can win this war.

    The actions of the smaller nations - Sweden, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland etc - shame the larger ones such as Germany (and yes, @kamski, France and Italy).

    I can understand Germany's reluctance, given their history. But they were in the wrong then. That doesn't mean they need to do wrong today.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Koreans certainly know how to make tories want to buy something. How many flegs do you want on this? All of them.




    Baldy Ben is "reviewing" Challenger 3 now that MBTs are back in fashion after they were pronounced obsolete in March.

    Not all UK firms, though, to put it mildly.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 4,198

    Culture wars are killing the Tories.

    They've had plenty of warning from me about this, I said people will say "I can't afford to eat why on Earth are you telling me about trans rights"

    There are serious matters in the current “culture war” that deserve reasoned and considered debate.

    Unfortunately what we get from both sides is a lot of playground insults and invective.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322

    Biggest swing here is those who are late middle aged. So not retired, and some way off retirement. If they were going to buy a house, they've started by now. Not particularly woke...

    What has the government done to hack them off? (Apart from generally being rubbish, natch.) Some of it will be that there are more 2019 Conservative voters who can shift, but surely not all of it is that

    Boomerang kids still at home mean that age group are closer to the real problems of young adults, and also keen on more housing to get them moved out.....
  • beinndeargbeinndearg Posts: 676
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Koreans certainly know how to make tories want to buy something. How many flegs do you want on this? All of them.




    Baldy Ben is "reviewing" Challenger 3 now that MBTs are back in fashion after they were pronounced obsolete in March.

    Perils of non English speakers doing branding, K9 ought to mean a military dog handling team.

    not as good as the Colt Starion Turbo, of course.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,962

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Do we have equivalent data for 1997?

    I think modern transfer data is hard to come by, but this Australian paper has some soft analysis, and on the raw numbers the Tory vote fell by 2.3x the amount the Labour vote increased, leading to a 6% turnout drop.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/Archived

    EDIT: Apologies, I accessed this about 4 weeks ago. I'll hunt down the correct link.
    OK, hoping this will work, a search of the Australian archive with the word Putney in it heads straight to the document page for me.

    https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;adv=yes;orderBy=customrank;page=0;query=1997 UK general election putney;rec=6;resCount=Default
    The standout there is

    Table 1. Change in Aggregate Vote 1992-1997
    Party, 1992, 1997, Difference
    Conservative, 14092891, 9590565, -4502326
    Labour, 11559384, 13551381, +1991997
    Liberal Democrats, 5999384, 5243322, -756062

    Sadly no breakdown by age group...
    Alas. I've not tracked down anything with more broken down data from, for example, the pollsters' archives, but I like the example constituency discussion of conservative non-voting - like how LD gained Isle of Wight from the Tories via shedding 5000 votes!

    And as to @mwadams description of Tory trouncing, this made me smile:

    Moreover, if large numbers of 1992 Conservative voters stayed at home in 1997 because they were disaffected by their own party but could not bring themselves to vote for any other party, then there is no reason to assume that they will necessarily stay at home again in 2002. That will all depend on the ability of the Conservative Party to put its house in order over the next five years. Initially, that effort will focus on the selection of a new party leader to replace John Major (see below), and then, presumably, on some settlement of the Europe issue within the party.
  • beinndeargbeinndearg Posts: 676
    malcolmg said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
    They could just programme them to shoot anything that moves
    Sentry guns in aliens

    Outstanding. Now all we need is a deck of cards.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,876
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Koreans certainly know how to make tories want to buy something. How many flegs do you want on this? All of them.




    Baldy Ben is "reviewing" Challenger 3 now that MBTs are back in fashion after they were pronounced obsolete in March.

    Review as in we must make CR3 a masterpiece of tankology or we should look at buying something from somewhere else that works?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,767
    Not all pensioners are sitting in their mortgage free home on a final salary pension:

    Pensioner poverty rates are rising and poverty among older females is rising slightly faster that poverty among older males.

    Since 2013/14 when pensioner poverty started rising again, the rise has been from 12% to 16% for males and from 14% to 20% for females.

    Older females have higher poverty rates as they generally live longer than males, and more often have a less complete National Insurance contribution history and more gaps in their employment history.


    https://www.jrf.org.uk/data/pensioner-poverty-rates
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 32,148
    Nigelb said:

    Sweden will send about 50 IFV CV90 tracked vehicles and Archer artillery systems to Ukraine.
    The CV90 is used to transport up to 8 infantry troops and is equipped with a 40mm Bofors automatic gun.
    The package is worth SEK 4.3 billion ($419 million)

    https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1616025419693670405

    Archer is a 155mm howitzer on a Volvo truck.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archer_Artillery_System

    Archer is interesting, in that it is a full automated system. No big crew, little setup. Just turn up and fire the magazine at the enemy. So very good at shoot-and-scoot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316
    Dura_Ace said:

    The Koreans certainly know how to make tories want to buy something. How many flegs do you want on this? All of them...

    Koreans understand the power of culture.
    https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/01/103_343943.html
    ...The study on the Non-Socialist Groups, a shadowy surveillance operation inside North Korea, was conducted by the Seoul-based Database Center for North Korean Human Rights. A web-like network of informants keeps ordinary North Korean people in fear and helps embed the culture of bribery, it says.

    In a country where everyone breaks the rules, everyone is a potential criminal. The network stifles not just the general public but also the officials who enforce the rules, reinforcing the concentration of power for a very few top leaders. The research is based on interviews with 32 North Koreans who defected to South Korea between 2018 and 2020.

    "After Kim took power, the regime has largely targeted outside information, including illegal videos from the South, because it knows such things change the way people think," a North Korean defector said.

    More than 25 percent of the North Korean defectors said, "illegal videos" ― mostly from South Korea or the United States ― were the main target of the crackdown, followed by narcotics (17.3 percent), defection attempts (14.7 percent) and "capitalist-like lifestyle" (12 percent). Among them, more than 40 percent said they experienced such inspections daily.

    While some North Koreans simply get a slap on the wrist for violating the rules, a few unlucky ones end up dead. If the video in question contains explicit content, execution is almost unavoidable, the report found...


    A display of the wrong fleg would definitely be a capital offence.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506

    Selebian said:

    Selebian said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.



    https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1615716748073869312

    I'm particularly intrigued by 'walked like a fir tree'. Never having seen this phenomenon in the wild, I'm wondering in exactly what manner they walk. Does anyone have a link to a video?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9D_x-oUjClE
    Oh, I know how deciduous trees walk, obviously - saw that documentary series... Just never witnessed a fir tree walking.
    I think in the Battle for Isengard, we saw at least one evergreen.

    Unless Jackson failed, again, in diversity...
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=p7Ptai9I6eo

    More trees cutting about.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,825
    edited January 19

    Selebian said:

    malcolmg said:

    Selebian said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm sure it is an oversight that Leon hasn't posted this.

    Two Marines defeated the AI detection system of a military robot by... hiding in a cardboard box and walking right up to it.

    Point is, though, that such systems will continue to improve.
    AI doesn't work now isn't the same thing as AI won't work.

    James Cameron got it right back in 1984.
    "Listen, and understand. That terminator is out there. It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
    Sure. But it does highlight there is still a hell of a gap between AI and 'human-I' in lack of experience/extrapolation to anything outside a training set. Interesting comparison would be to put some young kid (say pre-school) in the AI's place and see how it did. Would spot the somersaulting, for sure. Tree and cardboard box disguises might be more interesting.

    If you tell this AI that these were also people approaching, does it get better at spotting someone disguised as a post-box, for example? Does it think a box blown by the wind is a person. Still a world of challenges, which of course makes this interesting. Also, as we've seen elsewhere, AI doesn't have to approach the generalisability of human-I to have its uses.
    They could just programme them to shoot anything that moves
    Train the AI against a bunch of Marines who are paid in bottles of beer to come up with ways to defeat the AI.
    That might end up with an AI that was very good at spotting drunken adversaries...
    So 100% against Russians?
    Not so good against the Taliban.

    Shoot anything that moves? Seems trained by US Vietnam Vets.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,666
    edited January 19

    If you're not 95 why on Earth would you vote Tory? They've fucked us, time to fuck the pensioners too.

    Some of us are not old but are old enough to remember that Labour fucked us even more. The problems the young suffer from today like house prices, tuition fees etc were mostly started in Labour's time.

    But yes, the Tories don't deserve our votes either.

    And the Lib Dems pander to NIMBYs.

    There's nobody good to vote for. Almost enough to put you off politics altogether.
    I've given up following it except for reading what is posted here. Much easier life
    I'm not even reading what is posted here much anymore either. Think this is the first time in a week I've been to the site.

    Hard to stay interested when everything sucks and there's nothing to interest you. For me voting is a civil responsibility, but what do you do when there's nobody to vote for?

    Think I'll spoil my ballot next time by writing something like "build more houses" on it. None of the parties deserve my vote, but I won't simply not go to the ballot box.
    I mean if you want more houses you could always try voting for a party that says it is going to build more houses, .
    https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/keir-starmer-labour-housing-home-ownership-building-b1028538.html

    Edit to be less confrontational -> I agree that the last Labour govt dropped the ball on housebuilding. I think Starmer is different to Blair/Brown and is more prepared to do what works to fix this.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Carnyx said:

    Biggest swing here is those who are late middle aged. So not retired, and some way off retirement. If they were going to buy a house, they've started by now. Not particularly woke...

    What has the government done to hack them off? (Apart from generally being rubbish, natch.) Some of it will be that there are more 2019 Conservative voters who can shift, but surely not all of it is that

    Inflation. That's what so many people remmber of the 1970s. Permanent damage to savings, and to some extent to wages. They will still be talking of Tory inflation in 2050 and later.
    I won't be, not without a seance anyway.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,666
    Nigelb said:

    Tories are buggered aren't they?

    Under Sunak they are buggered fewer/less.

    Rubbish. People just can't accept that his Government is crap; he said life under him would be crap, and lo and behold it is crap. It was entirely predictable and only those with no policital nous thought that just by wearing a nice suit and being 'sensible', he would be of some inherent benefit.
    Tell us about all those alternative Tory administrations which will do better,
    Liz Truss was optimistic. Once.
    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1556767588910305282
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,976
    malcolmg said:

    kinabalu said:

    Interesting that the oldies have swung away from the Tories but about half into don't know whereas for the middle aged it seems a much more emphatic swing straight to Labour. I think that makes sense - the Tories are still the Pensioners' party so it's logical their support there might be a bit more fundamentally sticky. They Got Brexit Done and maintained the Triple Lock, the pensioners' priorities. Whereas the poor Gen X working stiffs are really getting nothing from the government at all. Little wonder they are embracing an alternative with growing enthusiasm.

    Sticky Pensioners, yet another Pornhub category brought to you by PB.
    And much talk of "fucking" them from BR and CHB.

    It's raunchy as hell on here.
    More like the loonies have escaped the asylum
    You have a nasty conflict on this s35 thing, Malcolm, don't you? You hate the GR bill but you also hate Westminster bossing Scotland. It's the very definition of a lose/lose for you.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Koreans certainly know how to make tories want to buy something. How many flegs do you want on this? All of them.




    Baldy Ben is "reviewing" Challenger 3 now that MBTs are back in fashion after they were pronounced obsolete in March.

    Review as in we must make CR3 a masterpiece of tankology or we should look at buying something from somewhere else that works?
    As in make a lot of nice jobs for soon-to-be-retired Tory MPs (and presumably some senior civil servants)?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,836

    Carnyx said:

    Biggest swing here is those who are late middle aged. So not retired, and some way off retirement. If they were going to buy a house, they've started by now. Not particularly woke...

    What has the government done to hack them off? (Apart from generally being rubbish, natch.) Some of it will be that there are more 2019 Conservative voters who can shift, but surely not all of it is that

    Inflation. That's what so many people remmber of the 1970s. Permanent damage to savings, and to some extent to wages. They will still be talking of Tory inflation in 2050 and later.
    I won't be, not without a seance anyway.
    Annoying, isn't it, not knowing?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,036
    I assume these numbers are percentage point reductions is support (if not then everything that follows is wrong). If we take 2019 votes from here (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election) then the Tories' loss of votes as a percentage of their total voters in each age group is:

    18-24 -57%
    25-29 -65%
    30-39 -63%
    40-49 -49%
    50-59 -55%
    60-69 -40%
    70+ - 28%.

    So actually the Tories seem to be becoming even more the pensioners' party than in 2019. Losing over 60% of their supporters under 40 and over half of their middle aged supporters is quite something. Still, you can see the logic of the Tories' pensioner-focused core vote strategy. If you want to minimise losses then you should aim to lose support the most where you have fewest supporters to begin with.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 1,526
    The situation for the Tories is obviously grim, but it does not mean that it will not get worse. The fact is that people are tending to support the strikes across the public sector *because* these are avowedly anti-Conservative actions. The consequences of the year of three Prime Ministers has utterly wrecked the credibility of the Tories, and there is no doubt that they are now heading for a rout.

    Despite the good local results for the Lib Dems in May and good by election results since then, they have been largely forgotten, not least because they had to scrap their conference because of the death of Elizabeth II. Nevertheless, in the ground war, there is a clear recovery in support for Ed Davey´s party. As voters get reminded of the Lib Dems existence, there is every chance that a) they will rise in the polls and b) that the Tories can get squeezed, very much as they did in 1997. Pre-1997, between General Elections the Lib Dems might be at 12% in the polls, but rise to 18%+ during the GE campaign, and that would be my bet for the next election too. So, I think the run up to the campaign could see the fate of the Tories being sealed, and given the vagaries of FPTP, we could see some very dramatic losses indeed for the Conservatives.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,792

    Dura_Ace said:

    The Koreans certainly know how to make tories want to buy something. How many flegs do you want on this? All of them.




    Baldy Ben is "reviewing" Challenger 3 now that MBTs are back in fashion after they were pronounced obsolete in March.

    Review as in we must make CR3 a masterpiece of tankology or we should look at buying something from somewhere else that works?
    All of the above. The UK have also just bought their way into the French/German/Italian MGCS tank project as an observer. Though they are keeping that on the DL obviously to avoid gammon inflammation.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories are buggered aren't they?

    Under Sunak they are buggered fewer/less.

    Rubbish. People just can't accept that his Government is crap; he said life under him would be crap, and lo and behold it is crap. It was entirely predictable and only those with no policital nous thought that just by wearing a nice suit and being 'sensible', he would be of some inherent benefit.
    Tell us about all those alternative Tory administrations which will do better,
    Liz Truss was optimistic. Once.
    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1556767588910305282
    It is the bare minimum that should be expected of any leader of anything that they are optimistic and have a plan to make things better.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 47,316



    Review as in we must make CR3 a masterpiece of tankology or we should look at buying something from somewhere else that works?

    Probably the K2, from the same place.
    It's starting to become the new NATO European standard - and we'd probably get a decent deal to build it on licence.

    Challenger is obsolete in concept.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 11,036

    Since there's a lot of negativity today, I just want to end by posting something positive. We got back onto the property ladder after a few years of renting and moved into a new build over Christmas; many people here write negative things about the quality of new builds etc, I have to say one thing I have been very impressed with is the insulation, especially today.

    Especially considering its a semi and next door hasn't been sold yet so is still vacant, which in older homes would cause heating problems too. But right now its snowing, negative temperature outside . . . and my heating is off! The heating is all controlled by a smart thermostat and doesn't come on for long, I'm curious to see what my gas bill will be and how that compares to my prior address.

    The only negative, and its one I can live with, is that I'm used to drying clothes in winter on the radiator and sometimes that's struggled as the radiator hasn't been on long enough to dry the clothes. As first world problems go, I'll take that one.

    A lot of people like to bash the quality of new builds, or only write negatives, so I wanted to share this as a positive, I'm very impressed. And I'll continue to hope much, much more like this gets constructed so others who are currently renting can benefit by getting into a newer, better home of their own.

    Congratulations and good luck in your new home.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,322

    Not all pensioners are sitting in their mortgage free home on a final salary pension:

    Pensioner poverty rates are rising and poverty among older females is rising slightly faster that poverty among older males.

    Since 2013/14 when pensioner poverty started rising again, the rise has been from 12% to 16% for males and from 14% to 20% for females.

    Older females have higher poverty rates as they generally live longer than males, and more often have a less complete National Insurance contribution history and more gaps in their employment history.


    https://www.jrf.org.uk/data/pensioner-poverty-rates

    So tackle this with pension credit, not universal bungs to all pensioners.......

    I wonder why this never gets a response......
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,976

    Not all pensioners are sitting in their mortgage free home on a final salary pension:

    Pensioner poverty rates are rising and poverty among older females is rising slightly faster that poverty among older males.

    Since 2013/14 when pensioner poverty started rising again, the rise has been from 12% to 16% for males and from 14% to 20% for females.

    Older females have higher poverty rates as they generally live longer than males, and more often have a less complete National Insurance contribution history and more gaps in their employment history.


    https://www.jrf.org.uk/data/pensioner-poverty-rates

    Yes. Those for whom the state pension is a 'nice to have' don't need inflation proofing, but those living on it do.
  • rkrkrk said:

    If you're not 95 why on Earth would you vote Tory? They've fucked us, time to fuck the pensioners too.

    Some of us are not old but are old enough to remember that Labour fucked us even more. The problems the young suffer from today like house prices, tuition fees etc were mostly started in Labour's time.

    But yes, the Tories don't deserve our votes either.

    And the Lib Dems pander to NIMBYs.

    There's nobody good to vote for. Almost enough to put you off politics altogether.
    I've given up following it except for reading what is posted here. Much easier life
    I'm not even reading what is posted here much anymore either. Think this is the first time in a week I've been to the site.

    Hard to stay interested when everything sucks and there's nothing to interest you. For me voting is a civil responsibility, but what do you do when there's nobody to vote for?

    Think I'll spoil my ballot next time by writing something like "build more houses" on it. None of the parties deserve my vote, but I won't simply not go to the ballot box.
    I mean if you want more houses you could always try voting for a party that says it is going to build more houses, .
    https://www.standard.co.uk/homesandproperty/property-news/keir-starmer-labour-housing-home-ownership-building-b1028538.html

    Edit to be less confrontational -> I agree that the last Labour govt dropped the ball on housebuilding. I think Starmer is different to Blair/Brown and is more prepared to do what works to fix this.
    If Starmer is different to Blair/Brown then he could win my vote. I won't be holding my breath, but that's a good start. 👍

    However Labour have played politics in opposing any loosening of planning restrictions etc, which is unsurprising but disappointing. Oppositions tend to put opposition ahead of doing the right thing. Lets see some concrete, pardon the pun, proposals on how that aspiration is going to be achieved in their manifesto.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,651

    Interesting that the oldies have swung away from the Tories but about half into don't know whereas for the middle aged it seems a much more emphatic swing straight to Labour. I think that makes sense - the Tories are still the Pensioners' party so it's logical their support there might be a bit more fundamentally sticky. They Got Brexit Done and maintained the Triple Lock, the pensioners' priorities. Whereas the poor Gen X working stiffs are really getting nothing from the government at all. Little wonder they are embracing an alternative with growing enthusiasm.

    Have a care for younger millennials who largely got shafted by student fees, paying rent to old people and houses being unaffordable. Gen X were still at the tail end of housing being affordable, millennials are completely fucked and as for Gen Z, they seem to think becoming a viral star on TikTok is the only way to succeed.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,666

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tories are buggered aren't they?

    Under Sunak they are buggered fewer/less.

    Rubbish. People just can't accept that his Government is crap; he said life under him would be crap, and lo and behold it is crap. It was entirely predictable and only those with no policital nous thought that just by wearing a nice suit and being 'sensible', he would be of some inherent benefit.
    Tell us about all those alternative Tory administrations which will do better,
    Liz Truss was optimistic. Once.
    https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1556767588910305282
    It is the bare minimum that should be expected of any leader of anything that they are optimistic and have a plan to make things better.
    "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat... We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering... But I take up my task with buoyancy and hope. I feel sure that our cause will not be suffered to fail among men."
  • beinndeargbeinndearg Posts: 676

    Not all pensioners are sitting in their mortgage free home on a final salary pension:

    Pensioner poverty rates are rising and poverty among older females is rising slightly faster that poverty among older males.

    Since 2013/14 when pensioner poverty started rising again, the rise has been from 12% to 16% for males and from 14% to 20% for females.

    Older females have higher poverty rates as they generally live longer than males, and more often have a less complete National Insurance contribution history and more gaps in their employment history.


    https://www.jrf.org.uk/data/pensioner-poverty-rates

    So tackle this with pension credit, not universal bungs to all pensioners.......

    I wonder why this never gets a response......
    Because 30% of the old dears would be too confused to apply and collect it. An amazing amount of discretionary bebefit goes unclaimed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,816

    Nigelb said:

    Sweden will send about 50 IFV CV90 tracked vehicles and Archer artillery systems to Ukraine.
    The CV90 is used to transport up to 8 infantry troops and is equipped with a 40mm Bofors automatic gun.
    The package is worth SEK 4.3 billion ($419 million)

    https://twitter.com/RyszardJonski/status/1616025419693670405

    Archer is a 155mm howitzer on a Volvo truck.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archer_Artillery_System

    Archer is interesting, in that it is a full automated system. No big crew, little setup. Just turn up and fire the magazine at the enemy. So very good at shoot-and-scoot.
    One of things that has surprised me, and perhaps should not, is the use of surveying for accurate artillery fire. The need had not occurred to me before I saw videos of people doing it in this war, and I can't remember reading about it in previous wars.

    I'm guessing it's not just about your current position, but also precisely which way 'north' is, to allow very accurate fire.
This discussion has been closed.