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Now a poll has the striking teachers getting public backing – politicalbetting.com

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    DJ41 said:

    It could be that grownups in both major parties plan to lose their current leader in good time for the election but they'd prefer the other side to move first.

    Rayner could wipe the floor with Sunak.

    The problem with any scenario involving getting rid of Sunak is he's got a lot of money behind him. And although he was only a commoner at Winchester he is no fool. Using Truss as a stool to step on was masterful :smile:

    Frankly neither tug nor cud, and sen.co.prae. proves nothing more than an oily aptitude for raising quills with the head man.

    I will never cease to wonder why cud features in the jargon of a single sex school.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,894

    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting discussion about the NHS on Ch4. Wes Streeting a revelation. Surely a potential Labour leader? The Tories were represented by Helen Whately (?). She seemed pleasant enough but you were left asking yourself how someone with those limitations could become an MP let alone a minister.

    Really? Streeting seems a nasty piece of work to me. I wouldn't trust him an inch.
    What makes you think that of Streeting?
    He is two faced, he complains that the Tories won't negotiate over nurses pay, yet won't support them getting more pay. He is a snake.
    I don't see how that follows. Encouraging the government to negotiate is one thing - everyone on here seems to support that.

    I suspect the Labour leadership are deliberately trying to resist being painted as in the pockets of the Unions. Cynical, maybe, but 'nasty piece of work' seems a bit excessive.
    What is there to negotiate but a better pay rise? If he won't support that then it is just cant on Streetings part.
    Comrade...you voted Cameron in 2010...like many other NHS Doctors (and staff) did...very fucking sadly and to the detriment of the NHS...but there you go...

    My sister is a Tory in denial....in a similar way..... I have no sympathies.

    The nature of the beast...go with your blue instincts. Stop trying to be liberal, and let your character shine through....

    Perhaps ask yourself why so many were not impressed by New Labour on the NHS.

    Though the Tories did blow that opportunity.

    No, you should remind yourself that it's the customer that matters and that in 2010 public satisfaction with the NHS had grown to stand at an all time record high and has fallen steeply since.

    Your voting record means that you are complicit in that decline. Perhaps you should look yourself in the face and cut Wes Streeting some slack, given Labour's achievements last time. It's going to take a miracle worker to sort out the mess.
    No, I don't regret my 2010 vote for the Tories, nor my support for the Coalition government.

    Rereading the 2010 Conservative manifesto section on the NHS, I still largely agree on it. The fact that they failed to implement those ideas is their fault, not mine.

    The rot really began in 2015, and I voted LD in that election.

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    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,448
    Roger said:

    IanB2 said:

    NEW: The chairman of Asda has said that Brexit has made Brits suffer and been catastrophic for the UK economy.

    Via @LBC

    That would be Stuart Rose - Chairman of Britain Stronger in Europe and vociferous opponent of Brexit during the referendum campaign. No axe to grid there of course.
    So he's entitled to say 'I told you so'. If only you clowns had listened.
    TBH the campaign wasnt very good, despite pots of money the BSE (Britain Stronger in Europe) campaign failed, it was complacent, City-centric and failed to win white working class voters - he was right (I voted Remain) but he squandered it as an Insurgent campaign by Leave played dirty but won......(which is what mattered) and dont get me on the Labour leadership's limp role...
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting discussion about the NHS on Ch4. Wes Streeting a revelation. Surely a potential Labour leader? The Tories were represented by Helen Whately (?). She seemed pleasant enough but you were left asking yourself how someone with those limitations could become an MP let alone a minister.

    Really? Streeting seems a nasty piece of work to me. I wouldn't trust him an inch.
    What makes you think that of Streeting?
    He is two faced, he complains that the Tories won't negotiate over nurses pay, yet won't support them getting more pay. He is a snake.
    I don't see how that follows. Encouraging the government to negotiate is one thing - everyone on here seems to support that.

    I suspect the Labour leadership are deliberately trying to resist being painted as in the pockets of the Unions. Cynical, maybe, but 'nasty piece of work' seems a bit excessive.
    What is there to negotiate but a better pay rise? If he won't support that then it is just cant on Streetings part.
    Comrade...you voted Cameron in 2010...like many other NHS Doctors (and staff) did...very fucking sadly and to the detriment of the NHS...but there you go...

    My sister is a Tory in denial....in a similar way..... I have no sympathies.

    The nature of the beast...go with your blue instincts. Stop trying to be liberal, and let your character shine through....

    Perhaps ask yourself why so many were not impressed by New Labour on the NHS.

    Though the Tories did blow that opportunity.

    No, you should remind yourself that it's the customer that matters and that in 2010 public satisfaction with the NHS had grown to stand at an all time record high and has fallen steeply since.

    Your voting record means that you are complicit in that decline. Perhaps you should look yourself in the face and cut Wes Streeting some slack, given Labour's achievements last time. It's going to take a miracle worker to sort out the mess.
    No, I don't regret my 2010 vote for the Tories, nor my support for the Coalition government.

    Rereading the 2010 Conservative manifesto section on the NHS, I still largely agree on it. The fact that they failed to implement those ideas is their fault, not mine.

    The rot really began in 2015, and I voted LD in that election.

    We found the other 2015 LD voter.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 26,073
    edited January 2023

    IanB2 said:

    NEW: The chairman of Asda has said that Brexit has made Brits suffer and been catastrophic for the UK economy.

    Via @LBC

    Catastrophic is a tad extreme. Lots of stuff has gone on, covid, the war and Brexit. Things are not that rosy, but I struggle to see that all would be great if only we hadn’t brexited.
    Britain has been in long-term relative decline for a very long time. We've often discussed some of the contributory reasons - poor management, short-termist investment culture, substandard technical education, class snobbery towards skilled trades, dominance of rent-seeking, etc - and these have been a feature from before Britain joined the Common Market, let alone voted to leave.

    Immediate events such as Covid, or the war in Ukraine, are hardly the cause of our problems, they merely serve to expose how weak Britain's economic position has become. Brexit is a sideshow, except insofar as it reveals a voting public willing to accept uncritically the wishful thinking and make believe of a political class who dare not face reality.

    Believing that reversing Brexit would fix the country's woes is simply a different flavour of denial.
    I don’t know if anyone believes they reversing Brexit would fix the country’s woes.

    Perhaps the settling consensus is that it’s a self-inflicted wound that can (perhaps) be undone, whereas the others issues are more chronic.
    But should we wish to deal with those chronic issues, and I certainly hope that we do, being outside the EU offers far greater scope to act. It wouldn't be impossible within, but it would be harder.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,090
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    These polls should surprise no one. This government is the 'Brexit Government'. The public are seeing the country slowly sliding towards penury thanks to a catastrophic error of judgement made by their rulers and they can't see why Joe Public should be asked to bail them out when they haven't even apologised

    Starmer's government will also be a brexit government but the real problems in the economy are directly caused from covid and the war in Ukraine

    Brexit is a part of the problem maybem, but not anything like you try to imply
    I have very low expectations of a Starmer government, though will cheer the end of the current bunch of mendacious self serving crooks.

    The Labour cupboard is completely bare of ideas, just the same crap delivered by Streeting instead of Barclay.

    I shall hang on until the summer to see what the next pay round brings, but if it is another real terms pay cut, then I will be taking retirement and contract back in on agency terms.
    And in many ways that is the problem

    This government has run out of time and Starmer is more than likely to win in 24 but neither he or labour have any hope of changing much

    Indeed I heard a Union representative when hearing Starmer's comments on self referral for internal bleeding and using the private sector say we may as well have the Tories !!!!
    The thing is that Starmer isn't even planning to change much.

    The animals look from pig to man, but can no longer see the difference.
    Well if people really wanted change they could have voted for Corbyn in 2017 or 2019, the voters however rejected his socialist agenda twice. In 2019 by a landslide so no surprise Starmer like Blair is cautious
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,218
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    A night on the town in Bangkok. It is, if anything, more entertaining than ever. Basically you become a Roman Emperor for 3 hours

    There are worse fates, as Heliogabulus once pointed out

    Better than it was in the 80s and 90s?
    Quite possibly. Indeed probably

    Not so good for heroin on room service but yes
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084
    edited January 2023
    SUNK

    A
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    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
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    The Tory brigade has given up attacking Starmer for being boring and being 30 points behind so now the criticism is that he's not planning to change enough.

    Straws.
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The main reason that the public are sympathetic is that everyone can see that pay awards fixed by panels before the Bank of England let inflation run out of control are not fair and need adjustment to the current situation. There is room in most of the disputes for settlements that are still below the current rate of inflation and, therefore, a fall in the wage bill in real terms. It is really obvious that this is what should be done.

    There is one thing to be done. Attack the price of energy by increasing supply. That will bring everything back into alignment. The Government shows no urgency or even long term desire to do this. Instead, they seem intent on baking the absurd energy price hikes into the system. That will cripple the entire the economy. It is a wrecking Government.
    Not really sure where you think that they should magic up some cheap energy from. Roughly 40% of our energy comes from gas and it is the flexible part of the system which can step up when the wind doesn't blow. That means gas is the determinant for prices. And I don't see what the government can do about it.
    They could have brought forward the licensing round for North Sea Oil (which is next year), and making sure fields already verified are being exploited. They could have avoided the windfall tax on energy firms that has discouraged North Sea investment and their other deeply damaging changes to allowances that have harmed small oil companies. They could have abandoned the fracking ban, and ensured that any gas from fracking was sold at below market rates to the domestic market. These actions would have increased domestic supply of gas, which let's not forget, is a less carbon intensive fuel than imported LNG.

    A genuine energy security bill with short, medium and long term instruments to ensure plentiful domestic energy supply would have been the number 1 priority of any responsible Government - frankly of any Government. This one is instead entirely in the grip of a frenzied ideological green agenda, that happens to be fine with fossil fuels as long as they're being imported from A N Other shitty regime.
    They already did bring forward the licencing round - and massively expanded it. It launched in October and closed last week. It was the largest round of licences in decades. The problem is that at the same time they introduced the windfall tax which resulted in oil and gas companies deciding it simply wasn't worth bidding. Indeed the largest independent O&G company in the UK has cancelled all plans for exploration in the North Sea for the foreseeable future, withdrew from the round, has redirected investment to other regions and today announced they were looking at large scale redundancies in the UK.

    As I have said previously, fracking is a red herring. Do what you like with it, it won't do anything to help our energy security.
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    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting discussion about the NHS on Ch4. Wes Streeting a revelation. Surely a potential Labour leader? The Tories were represented by Helen Whately (?). She seemed pleasant enough but you were left asking yourself how someone with those limitations could become an MP let alone a minister.

    Really? Streeting seems a nasty piece of work to me. I wouldn't trust him an inch.
    What makes you think that of Streeting?
    He is two faced, he complains that the Tories won't negotiate over nurses pay, yet won't support them getting more pay. He is a snake.
    I don't see how that follows. Encouraging the government to negotiate is one thing - everyone on here seems to support that.

    I suspect the Labour leadership are deliberately trying to resist being painted as in the pockets of the Unions. Cynical, maybe, but 'nasty piece of work' seems a bit excessive.
    Torching a pet shop on the other hand!!
    Do you remember when you called for Keir Starmer to resign because he was only 5 points ahead? I do
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,084

    The Tory brigade has given up attacking Starmer for being boring and being 30 points behind so now the criticism is that he's not planning to change enough.

    Straws.

    They’re definitely flailing and falling right now. It’s all a bit sad and desperate. It can’t last. They’ll get rid of Sunak.
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    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    These polls should surprise no one. This government is the 'Brexit Government'. The public are seeing the country slowly sliding towards penury thanks to a catastrophic error of judgement made by their rulers and they can't see why Joe Public should be asked to bail them out when they haven't even apologised

    Starmer's government will also be a brexit government but the real problems in the economy are directly caused from covid and the war in Ukraine

    Brexit is a part of the problem maybem, but not anything like you try to imply
    I have very low expectations of a Starmer government, though will cheer the end of the current bunch of mendacious self serving crooks.

    The Labour cupboard is completely bare of ideas, just the same crap delivered by Streeting instead of Barclay.

    I shall hang on until the summer to see what the next pay round brings, but if it is another real terms pay cut, then I will be taking retirement and contract back in on agency terms.
    And in many ways that is the problem

    This government has run out of time and Starmer is more than likely to win in 24 but neither he or labour have any hope of changing much

    Indeed I heard a Union representative when hearing Starmer's comments on self referral for internal bleeding and using the private sector say we may as well have the Tories !!!!
    The thing is that Starmer isn't even planning to change much.

    The animals look from pig to man, but can no longer see the difference.
    I’m not a massive fan, but this is unfair.
    Indeed it’s essentially the reiteration of a Tory talking point.
    I fully expect (and hope) that Starmer will find a new line over EU relations. The mere fact he is not from the extant governing party should make this easier. Obviously from my point of view I don't want him to barrel into rejoin but as you know my view of Brexit has always been much more aligned than the current trajectory and, though it is too late for my bet with Richard Navabi, I still hold out hope of EEA membership at some point in the future. .
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,568

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    {innocent face}

    Then what's the Force de frappe for?
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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,986

    IanB2 said:

    NEW: The chairman of Asda has said that Brexit has made Brits suffer and been catastrophic for the UK economy.

    Via @LBC

    Catastrophic is a tad extreme. Lots of stuff has gone on, covid, the war and Brexit. Things are not that rosy, but I struggle to see that all would be great if only we hadn’t brexited.
    Britain has been in long-term relative decline for a very long time. We've often discussed some of the contributory reasons - poor management, short-termist investment culture, substandard technical education, class snobbery towards skilled trades, dominance of rent-seeking, etc - and these have been a feature from before Britain joined the Common Market, let alone voted to leave.

    Immediate events such as Covid, or the war in Ukraine, are hardly the cause of our problems, they merely serve to expose how weak Britain's economic position has become. Brexit is a sideshow, except insofar as it reveals a voting public willing to accept uncritically the wishful thinking and make believe of a political class who dare not face reality.

    Believing that reversing Brexit would fix the country's woes is simply a different flavour of denial.
    Our politicians have been so substandard for such a long time that we need the politicians in Brussels. Our homegrown fools and inept leaders, unfettered by any restraints, will simply accelerate the speed of the country's decline.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,894

    The Tory brigade has given up attacking Starmer for being boring and being 30 points behind so now the criticism is that he's not planning to change enough.

    Straws.

    I have only voted Tory once in 40 years of voting. I was a member of the Labour Party until 20 years ago. I am a classic Centrist dad.

    I can see no reason to vote for Starmer, though I do not dislike him as much as I do the current government.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295



    Depends on if the proposal caught mid engined cars, then - it was in Private Eye a number of years back as an example of the Brussels game.

    The whole story sounds like a complete load of bollocks as exemptions from Type Approval are a national competency and nothing to do with the EU. Hence the existence of VSPs in France (and Belgium).
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    IanB2 said:

    NEW: The chairman of Asda has said that Brexit has made Brits suffer and been catastrophic for the UK economy.

    Via @LBC

    Catastrophic is a tad extreme. Lots of stuff has gone on, covid, the war and Brexit. Things are not that rosy, but I struggle to see that all would be great if only we hadn’t brexited.
    Britain has been in long-term relative decline for a very long time. We've often discussed some of the contributory reasons - poor management, short-termist investment culture, substandard technical education, class snobbery towards skilled trades, dominance of rent-seeking, etc - and these have been a feature from before Britain joined the Common Market, let alone voted to leave.

    Immediate events such as Covid, or the war in Ukraine, are hardly the cause of our problems, they merely serve to expose how weak Britain's economic position has become. Brexit is a sideshow, except insofar as it reveals a voting public willing to accept uncritically the wishful thinking and make believe of a political class who dare not face reality.

    Believing that reversing Brexit would fix the country's woes is simply a different flavour of denial.
    Our politicians have been so substandard for such a long time that we need the politicians in Brussels. Our homegrown fools and inept leaders, unfettered by any restraints, will simply accelerate the speed of the country's decline.
    If you think the politicians in Brussels - half of whom were failures in their own countries first - are any better than our lot then I have a bridge to sell you. The decline of political ability and competence is a disease inflicting pretty much the whole of the Western world.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 118,090
    edited January 2023

    IanB2 said:

    NEW: The chairman of Asda has said that Brexit has made Brits suffer and been catastrophic for the UK economy.

    Via @LBC

    Catastrophic is a tad extreme. Lots of stuff has gone on, covid, the war and Brexit. Things are not that rosy, but I struggle to see that all would be great if only we hadn’t brexited.
    Britain has been in long-term relative decline for a very long time. We've often discussed some of the contributory reasons - poor management, short-termist investment culture, substandard technical education, class snobbery towards skilled trades, dominance of rent-seeking, etc - and these have been a feature from before Britain joined the Common Market, let alone voted to leave.

    Immediate events such as Covid, or the war in Ukraine, are hardly the cause of our problems, they merely serve to expose how weak Britain's economic position has become. Brexit is a sideshow, except insofar as it reveals a voting public willing to accept uncritically the wishful thinking and make believe of a political class who dare not face reality.

    Believing that reversing Brexit would fix the country's woes is simply a different flavour of denial.
    Our politicians have been so substandard for such a long time that we need the politicians in Brussels. Our homegrown fools and inept leaders, unfettered by any restraints, will simply accelerate the speed of the country's decline.
    If you think the politicians in Brussels - half of whom were failures in their own countries first - are any better than our lot then I have a bridge to sell you. The decline of political ability and competence is a disease inflicting pretty much the whole of the Western world.
    I wouldn't say Nixon, Ford and Carter, Heath, Wilson and Callaghan, d'Estaing and Schmidt and Malcolm Fraser and Trudeau's dad were much better in the 1970s, economically high inflation and strike ridden and inefficient industry. Spain of course was still under Franco for much of that decade. The West was not taking on the USSR effectively either until Reagan and Thatcher
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    DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    And in France...another grève générale begins.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,421
    New Prime Minister in New Zealand on the way.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,397



    Our politicians have been so substandard for such a long time that we need the politicians in Brussels. Our homegrown fools and inept leaders, unfettered by any restraints, will simply accelerate the speed of the country's decline.

    If you think the politicians in Brussels - half of whom were failures in their own countries first - are any better than our lot then I have a bridge to sell you. The decline of political ability and competence is a disease inflicting pretty much the whole of the Western world.
    I don't know how many politicians in Brussels you knew/know, Richard? My view, not limited to any particular party, is that the standard of Euro-MPs is distinctinctly better in terms of getting to grips with policy than in Westminster. The reason, I think, is that the system gives backbenchers there a much stronger position - party discipline is weak, and they spend 95% of the time focusing on the issues and only 5% on social work forr constituents. Consequently, they are happy to spend an hour or two learning about an issue and exploring its ramifications, while in Britain you'll get 20 minutes unless they're especially interested.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    I see I am beaten to the punch.
    Jacinda Arden announces she will resign by Feb 7.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    Ardern’s heir assumptive, Grant Robertson (currently the Finance Minister, ie Chancellor) has ruled himself out already.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009



    Our politicians have been so substandard for such a long time that we need the politicians in Brussels. Our homegrown fools and inept leaders, unfettered by any restraints, will simply accelerate the speed of the country's decline.

    If you think the politicians in Brussels - half of whom were failures in their own countries first - are any better than our lot then I have a bridge to sell you. The decline of political ability and competence is a disease inflicting pretty much the whole of the Western world.
    I don't know how many politicians in Brussels you knew/know, Richard? My view, not limited to any particular party, is that the standard of Euro-MPs is distinctinctly better in terms of getting to grips with policy than in Westminster. The reason, I think, is that the system gives backbenchers there a much stronger position - party discipline is weak, and they spend 95% of the time focusing on the issues and only 5% on social work forr constituents. Consequently, they are happy to spend an hour or two learning about an issue and exploring its ramifications, while in Britain you'll get 20 minutes unless they're especially interested.
    That’s an argument in favour of reform in the UK rather than just handing over power wholesale to non-domestic politicians.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    edited January 2023
    This is rather pathetic by Ardern.

    Not leadership.

    The NZ economy (like everywhere) is facing headwinds, and the coming election looks challenging…but hardly terminal. Indeed I would have had Arden and Labour as very modest favourites.

    She just can’t be arsed.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,009
    Informed opinion suggests the next PM of NZ will be Chris Hipkins, currently Minister of Education.
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    carnforthcarnforth Posts: 3,436
    edited January 2023
    https://twitter.com/billyperrigo/status/1615682180201447425

    "Exclusive: OpenAI used outsourced Kenyan workers earning less than $2 per hour to make ChatGPT less toxic, my investigation found"

    The job is not too different from that done by moderators for facebook etc, but it also raises the question of just how much manual intevention there is in automatic answers...

    Edit: equally interesting: actual journalism from Time Magazine, which has been a joke for decades
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,854
    edited January 2023

    This is rather pathetic by Ardern.

    Not leadership.

    The NZ economy (like everywhere) is facing headwinds, and the coming election looks challenging…but hardly terminal. Indeed I would have had Arden and Labour as very modest favourites.

    She just can’t be arsed.

    Bloody work shy whippersnappers.....
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 77,854
    edited January 2023
    carnforth said:

    https://twitter.com/billyperrigo/status/1615682180201447425

    "Exclusive: OpenAI used outsourced Kenyan workers earning less than $2 per hour to make ChatGPT less toxic, my investigation found"

    The job is not too different from that done by moderators for facebook etc, but it also raises the question of just how much manual intevention there is in automatic answers...

    Edit: equally interesting: actual journalism from Time Magazine, which has been a joke for decades

    Its a dirty little secret of all these AI systems that rely on massive data, there has pretty always been humans labelling and cleaning the data for absolutely buttons based in the Far East or Africa. So unsurprising they would also use the same approach to check the outputs.

    Given what we know about how China deals with data, I am surprised there hasn't been more exposure of the scandal that big tech companies are sending absolutely tonnes of data to China to have it labelled and cleaned (and of course it definitely never leaves the building....same way manufacturing schematics never go walkies or the same factories making genuine goods, run the night shift for the knock offs )
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    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    This is the most obvious (and stupid) quip but....

    Things didn't go all that well for Germany the last time it sent tanks into the Ukraine.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 49,088

    This is rather pathetic by Ardern.

    Not leadership.

    The NZ economy (like everywhere) is facing headwinds, and the coming election looks challenging…but hardly terminal. Indeed I would have had Arden and Labour as very modest favourites.

    She just can’t be arsed.

    If not for covid, would she be regarded as a kind of Estelle Morris figure who took on a job that was too big for her?
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,669

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Provision of MBT's isn't a 'major escalation' in the war.

    Although Russia tends to see everything as a 'major escalation'. "Someone wrote something nasty about Putin on PoliticalBetting.com! This is a major escalation! We shall nuke Bedford!"
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,669
    Currently, if you take a child out of school without permission, each parent gets fined £60 per day (£120 per day if not paid within 21 days).

    I look forward to fining my school £60 per day for every day my son is off.

    (I won't, actually, and I think there's something about five consecutive days with the above. But if every missed day of school is vital for a child, then the missed days from the strikes will also be vital. And this on top of Covid...)
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK but people want to see it done with an air of prideful bellicosity, as exemplified by Baldy Ben, so Germany doesn't get the credit.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    BREAKING: U.S. officials are reportedly warming to the idea of helping Ukraine militarily recapture Crimea
    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1615862007210856450
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,669
    Dura_Ace said:

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK but people want to see it done with an air of prideful bellicosity, as exemplified by Baldy Ben, so Germany doesn't get the credit.
    "Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK"

    Do you have a source for that claim, as this indicates it isn't correct:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

    And if you take it wider, to include humanitarian and other support (but you mentioned weapons), we still seem to be doing better than Germany:
    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/data-sets/ukraine-support-tracker-data-17410/

    As I've said passim, Germany's problem has been twofold: talking about giving, then saying they would not; and agreeing delivery of stuff, but not for years.

    Ukraine needs stuff now. Future promises matter little; what matters is the stuff that gets over there today, this week, or this month. Germany also looked really bad in preventing countries with Leopard MBTs from sending them to Ukraine (and as an aside, Switzerland looks really shitty on that mark as well).

    And TBF to the UK, we've been delivering. ISTR you were rather negative about the 10,000 training scheme when it was announced?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,237
    Dura_Ace said:

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK but people want to see it done with an air of prideful bellicosity, as exemplified by Baldy Ben, so Germany doesn't get the credit.
    Some do, perhaps.
    But the reality is that Germany has done the right thing regarding weapons supplies several months later than everyone else. That has real consequences.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,237
    In contrast to our rather persistent inflation figures.

    US Inflation is slowing fast...

    Consumer Price Index (CPI)...
    Last 12 Months: +6.5%
    Last 6 Months: +0.2%
    Last 2 Months: -0.4%

    Producer Price Index (PPI)...
    Last 12 Months: +6.2%
    Last 6 Months: -0.1%
    Last 2 Months: -0.3%

    Fed now expected to hike only 25 bps @ Feb 1 meeting.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1615720413958479873
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295
    edited January 2023


    Do you have a source for that claim, as this indicates it isn't correct:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

    Some arsehole on Telegram (it's where all the cool kids are now that Elon is a shitlord) with loads of punctuation symbols in their handle posted a graph from the BBC. Don't have a non-CIA source.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218
  • Options
    2013 saw the public on the side of the government instead of teachers?

    In that case bring back whoever was Education Secretary in 2013 to change the the public's mind.

    Step forward Michael Gove and make him Education Secretary.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    2013 saw the public on the side of the government instead of teachers?

    In that case bring back whoever was Education Secretary in 2013 to change the the public's mind.

    Step forward Michael Gove and make him Education Secretary.

    I thought you didn’t drink?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,044
    Little more than sock puppet organisations.
  • Options
    I used to live in the Richmond constituency, boy does it need the cash.

    The southeast will be handed more regeneration money today than the northeast, Yorkshire and the West Midlands, with red wall MPs accusing the government of “making a mockery” of levelling up.

    Rishi Sunak’s North Yorkshire constituency of Richmond is among wealthy areas to be given millions in funding designed to boost living standards.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/levelling-up-cash-favours-southeast-over-red-wall-c2b77tr89
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954
    edited January 2023
    Nigelb said:

    In contrast to our rather persistent inflation figures.

    US Inflation is slowing fast...

    Consumer Price Index (CPI)...
    Last 12 Months: +6.5%
    Last 6 Months: +0.2%
    Last 2 Months: -0.4%

    Producer Price Index (PPI)...
    Last 12 Months: +6.2%
    Last 6 Months: -0.1%
    Last 2 Months: -0.3%

    Fed now expected to hike only 25 bps @ Feb 1 meeting.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1615720413958479873

    Fuel prices there have come down very significantly since the summer peak (and are if anything now rising again) - the effect in the UK is damped because so much of what we pay is tax.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,669
    Dura_Ace said:


    Do you have a source for that claim, as this indicates it isn't correct:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

    Some arsehole on Telegram (it's where all the cool kids are now that Elon is a shitlord) with loads of punctuation symbols in their handle posted a graph from the BBC. Don't have a non-CIA source.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218
    Thanks for that. It appears the BBC has dropped a bollock with that one, as the dataset they used, (and to their credit, linked to), shows Germany at 2.3449 bn for 'military commitments', and the UK at 4.1292 bn.

    They appear to have used the 'Specific weapons and equipment' figure for the UK.

    II hope you'll go and correct the arsehole on Telegram. ;)

    I wonder if I should send something into the BBC about this? I've done so in the past over relatively trivial matters, and their reaction has been (ahem) poor...
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,365
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK but people want to see it done with an air of prideful bellicosity, as exemplified by Baldy Ben, so Germany doesn't get the credit.
    Some do, perhaps.
    But the reality is that Germany has done the right thing regarding weapons supplies several months later than everyone else. That has real consequences.

    Than *everyone* else? Bullshit.

    The most obvious comparisons would be with countries like Italy and France. Given that Germany also had further to move in terms of exporting into a war, and other historical factors , I think if anything Germany has done a bit more than I would have expected.

    Even on tanks, Germany has repeatedly said it won't export tanks unless the US does too.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,669

    Dura_Ace said:


    Do you have a source for that claim, as this indicates it isn't correct:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

    Some arsehole on Telegram (it's where all the cool kids are now that Elon is a shitlord) with loads of punctuation symbols in their handle posted a graph from the BBC. Don't have a non-CIA source.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218
    Thanks for that. It appears the BBC has dropped a bollock with that one, as the dataset they used, (and to their credit, linked to), shows Germany at 2.3449 bn for 'military commitments', and the UK at 4.1292 bn.

    They appear to have used the 'Specific weapons and equipment' figure for the UK.

    II hope you'll go and correct the arsehole on Telegram. ;)

    I wonder if I should send something into the BBC about this? I've done so in the past over relatively trivial matters, and their reaction has been (ahem) poor...
    Okay, I can see what they've done. They've taken both figures from the 'Specific weapons and equipment' column, rather than the 'Military commitments' column. Or the 'total commitments'.

    So they chose the one column that showed Germany above the UK wrt military spending. Odd, that.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954
    edited January 2023

    Dura_Ace said:


    Do you have a source for that claim, as this indicates it isn't correct:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

    Some arsehole on Telegram (it's where all the cool kids are now that Elon is a shitlord) with loads of punctuation symbols in their handle posted a graph from the BBC. Don't have a non-CIA source.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218
    Thanks for that. It appears the BBC has dropped a bollock with that one, as the dataset they used, (and to their credit, linked to), shows Germany at 2.3449 bn for 'military commitments', and the UK at 4.1292 bn.

    They appear to have used the 'Specific weapons and equipment' figure for the UK.

    II hope you'll go and correct the arsehole on Telegram. ;)

    I wonder if I should send something into the BBC about this? I've done so in the past over relatively trivial matters, and their reaction has been (ahem) poor...
    Writing to the BBC directly about anything is a waste of time. They get swamped with all sorts of stuff and have a junior team using standard words to dismiss it all. I think they just count the responses by show, to produce some sort of league table that might send some sort of flag to whoever made the shows that generate the most complaints. What you actually say doesn't get seen.

    The only things they take seriously are representations from politicians and other notables, or cases that have become official broadcasting complaints.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,996
    Taz said:

    Little more than sock puppet organisations.
    I will have you know that these organisations provide much useful employment for SNP activists and sympathisers who might otherwise be deemed unemployable.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,876
    edited January 2023

    I used to live in the Richmond constituency, boy does it need the cash.

    The southeast will be handed more regeneration money today than the northeast, Yorkshire and the West Midlands, with red wall MPs accusing the government of “making a mockery” of levelling up.

    Rishi Sunak’s North Yorkshire constituency of Richmond is among wealthy areas to be given millions in funding designed to boost living standards.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/levelling-up-cash-favours-southeast-over-red-wall-c2b77tr89

    I would love to know what the purpose is because compared with a lot of places of similar size Catterick is already way ahead of elsewhere.

    There is a decent selection of shops round Tesco and the cinema and for obvious reasons it’s never going to have a lot of fancy pubs / cafes.

    Now I wouldn’t want to live there - I would swear it has more roundabouts than Milton Keynes but even without Levelling up it’s done better than anywhere else in the area over the past 20 years

    I should also add the council appear to be actually competent which is beyond rare. The business park site that is one of the options for the Rolls Royce mini nuke factory got planning permission earlier this month
  • Options
    Taz said:

    Little more than sock puppet organisations.
    Rape Crisis Scotland and Scottish Women’s Aid are sock puppet organisations?

  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,669
    IanB2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:


    Do you have a source for that claim, as this indicates it isn't correct:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

    Some arsehole on Telegram (it's where all the cool kids are now that Elon is a shitlord) with loads of punctuation symbols in their handle posted a graph from the BBC. Don't have a non-CIA source.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218
    Thanks for that. It appears the BBC has dropped a bollock with that one, as the dataset they used, (and to their credit, linked to), shows Germany at 2.3449 bn for 'military commitments', and the UK at 4.1292 bn.

    They appear to have used the 'Specific weapons and equipment' figure for the UK.

    II hope you'll go and correct the arsehole on Telegram. ;)

    I wonder if I should send something into the BBC about this? I've done so in the past over relatively trivial matters, and their reaction has been (ahem) poor...
    Writing to the BBC directly about anything is a waste of time. They get swamped with all sorts of stuff and have a junior team using standard words to dismiss it all. The only things they take seriously are representations from politicians and other notables, or cases that have become official broadcasting complaints.
    Years ago I sent something in about a trivial matter, and I got a reply that was unreadable (no text displayed, by a message size of 7k). As I'm a techy, I realised they'd encoded the reply as a binary (Content-Transfer-Encoding: base64)..

    'Beware of the leopards' came to mind...
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,129
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Jessop, there are 10 types of people in the world: those who understand binary, and those who don't.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,416
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    In contrast to our rather persistent inflation figures.

    US Inflation is slowing fast...

    Consumer Price Index (CPI)...
    Last 12 Months: +6.5%
    Last 6 Months: +0.2%
    Last 2 Months: -0.4%

    Producer Price Index (PPI)...
    Last 12 Months: +6.2%
    Last 6 Months: -0.1%
    Last 2 Months: -0.3%

    Fed now expected to hike only 25 bps @ Feb 1 meeting.

    https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1615720413958479873

    Fuel prices there have come down very significantly since the summer peak (and are if anything now rising again) - the effect in the UK is damped because so much of what we pay is tax.
    The US numbers are also being pulled down by used cars, which exploded in price post Covid and are now falling back to earth, and a rather technical move in health insurance premiums. US inflation has slowed but underlying trends are a lot more persistent than the headline numbers suggest.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    2013 saw the public on the side of the government instead of teachers?

    In that case bring back whoever was Education Secretary in 2013 to change the the public's mind.

    Step forward Michael Gove and make him Education Secretary.

    I thought you didn’t drink?
    I don't, I'm a good Muslim.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    ydoethur said:

    2013 saw the public on the side of the government instead of teachers?

    In that case bring back whoever was Education Secretary in 2013 to change the the public's mind.

    Step forward Michael Gove and make him Education Secretary.

    I thought you didn’t drink?
    I don't, I'm a good Muslim.
    So do I have to assume you've suffered a sudden bout of insanity?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,044
    Kinder politics SNP style.

    A labour female MP being bullied. No sympathy at all.

    https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1615816382167367681?s=61&t=9he6VRcz9aXtA4_nB1J7-g
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,996

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The main reason that the public are sympathetic is that everyone can see that pay awards fixed by panels before the Bank of England let inflation run out of control are not fair and need adjustment to the current situation. There is room in most of the disputes for settlements that are still below the current rate of inflation and, therefore, a fall in the wage bill in real terms. It is really obvious that this is what should be done.

    There is one thing to be done. Attack the price of energy by increasing supply. That will bring everything back into alignment. The Government shows no urgency or even long term desire to do this. Instead, they seem intent on baking the absurd energy price hikes into the system. That will cripple the entire the economy. It is a wrecking Government.
    Not really sure where you think that they should magic up some cheap energy from. Roughly 40% of our energy comes from gas and it is the flexible part of the system which can step up when the wind doesn't blow. That means gas is the determinant for prices. And I don't see what the government can do about it.
    They could have brought forward the licensing round for North Sea Oil (which is next year), and making sure fields already verified are being exploited. They could have avoided the windfall tax on energy firms that has discouraged North Sea investment and their other deeply damaging changes to allowances that have harmed small oil companies. They could have abandoned the fracking ban, and ensured that any gas from fracking was sold at below market rates to the domestic market. These actions would have increased domestic supply of gas, which let's not forget, is a less carbon intensive fuel than imported LNG.

    A genuine energy security bill with short, medium and long term instruments to ensure plentiful domestic energy supply would have been the number 1 priority of any responsible Government - frankly of any Government. This one is instead entirely in the grip of a frenzied ideological green agenda, that happens to be fine with fossil fuels as long as they're being imported from A N Other shitty regime.
    They already did bring forward the licencing round - and massively expanded it. It launched in October and closed last week. It was the largest round of licences in decades. The problem is that at the same time they introduced the windfall tax which resulted in oil and gas companies deciding it simply wasn't worth bidding. Indeed the largest independent O&G company in the UK has cancelled all plans for exploration in the North Sea for the foreseeable future, withdrew from the round, has redirected investment to other regions and today announced they were looking at large scale redundancies in the UK.

    As I have said previously, fracking is a red herring. Do what you like with it, it won't do anything to help our energy security.
    I think that we are all in agreement that the windfall tax was a serious error. Sunak knew that and argued as much but then gave in to political pressure causing economic damage to the UK. Labour don't even seem to have understood how counterproductive it was.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,365

    Dura_Ace said:

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK but people want to see it done with an air of prideful bellicosity, as exemplified by Baldy Ben, so Germany doesn't get the credit.
    "Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK"

    Do you have a source for that claim, as this indicates it isn't correct:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

    And if you take it wider, to include humanitarian and other support (but you mentioned weapons), we still seem to be doing better than Germany:
    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/data-sets/ukraine-support-tracker-data-17410/

    As I've said passim, Germany's problem has been twofold: talking about giving, then saying they would not; and agreeing delivery of stuff, but not for years.

    Ukraine needs stuff now. Future promises matter little; what matters is the stuff that gets over there today, this week, or this month. Germany also looked really bad in preventing countries with Leopard MBTs from sending them to Ukraine (and as an aside, Switzerland looks really shitty on that mark as well).

    And TBF to the UK, we've been delivering. ISTR you were rather negative about the 10,000 training scheme when it was announced?
    tbf, according to your link if you include humanitarian and financial assistance "EU institutions" dwarfs both the UK and Germany. You could probably get Germany ahead on that measure if you include the German share of EU contributions.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    2013 saw the public on the side of the government instead of teachers?

    In that case bring back whoever was Education Secretary in 2013 to change the the public's mind.

    Step forward Michael Gove and make him Education Secretary.

    I thought you didn’t drink?
    I don't, I'm a good Muslim.
    So do I have to assume you've suffered a sudden bout of insanity?
    I'm just thinking outside of the box.

    We need somebody to smash the unions.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,337
    edited January 2023

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    {innocent face}

    Then what's the Force de frappe for?
    The Force de Frappe is to protect France from Germany, which has a proud tradition of invading its southern neighbour, and to boost the late Charles de Gaulle's ego.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    2013 saw the public on the side of the government instead of teachers?

    In that case bring back whoever was Education Secretary in 2013 to change the the public's mind.

    Step forward Michael Gove and make him Education Secretary.

    I thought you didn’t drink?
    I don't, I'm a good Muslim.
    So do I have to assume you've suffered a sudden bout of insanity?
    I'm just thinking outside of the box.

    We need somebody to smash the unions.
    Well, six more months of Gove's dogmatic bungling and I agree there would be few members of the NEU left to strike.

    Snag is, that would be because they'd all found other jobs.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,237
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK but people want to see it done with an air of prideful bellicosity, as exemplified by Baldy Ben, so Germany doesn't get the credit.
    Some do, perhaps.
    But the reality is that Germany has done the right thing regarding weapons supplies several months later than everyone else. That has real consequences.

    Than *everyone* else? Bullshit.

    The most obvious comparisons would be with countries like Italy and France. Given that Germany also had further to move in terms of exporting into a war, and other historical factors , I think if anything Germany has done a bit more than I would have expected.

    Even on tanks, Germany has repeatedly said it won't export tanks unless the US does too.
    You can fairly take exception to my generalisation, sure - and certainly about Italy particularly.
    But it doesn't change the reality of Germany delay - and blocking of other countries sending German manufactured kit.
  • Options
    DJ41 said:

    And in France...another grève générale begins.

    French citoyens are striking over plans to raise the French pension age to [checks notes] 64, up from 62. The French state pension is more complicated than ours, more generous than ours, and means tested at the top level. It also runs at a profit.

    Our state pension pays less, does not start till 67 (soon to be 68) and yet people obsess about the triple lock.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954
    edited January 2023

    DJ41 said:

    And in France...another grève générale begins.

    French citoyens are striking over plans to raise the French pension age to [checks notes] 64, up from 62. The French state pension is more complicated than ours, more generous than ours, and means tested at the top level. It also runs at a profit.

    Our state pension pays less, does not start till 67 (soon to be 68) and yet people obsess about the triple lock.
    And isn’t “means tested at the top level” (and is also effectively part tax-exempt); therein lies the problem.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,887
    I may be wrong but I’m not buying Ardern’s reasons for quitting.

    She wants to be remembered as the PM who won the huge landslide, going from an outright majority to potentially not winning a plurality in the next parliament (which was looking increasingly possible) would have stung. The tide has turned a little on the covid narratives too which can’t have helped.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,876

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    2013 saw the public on the side of the government instead of teachers?

    In that case bring back whoever was Education Secretary in 2013 to change the the public's mind.

    Step forward Michael Gove and make him Education Secretary.

    I thought you didn’t drink?
    I don't, I'm a good Muslim.
    So do I have to assume you've suffered a sudden bout of insanity?
    I'm just thinking outside of the box.

    We need somebody to smash the unions.
    The last union was smashed by allowing miners to strike for a over a year and then closing down the bits.

    I can't see parents being happy with students being at home permanently followed by all the schools being closed.

    Mind you from what I'm hearing about the financial situation of a few universities - it's possible that the Uni Lecturers strike will achieve that aim.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,669
    kamski said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK but people want to see it done with an air of prideful bellicosity, as exemplified by Baldy Ben, so Germany doesn't get the credit.
    "Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK"

    Do you have a source for that claim, as this indicates it isn't correct:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

    And if you take it wider, to include humanitarian and other support (but you mentioned weapons), we still seem to be doing better than Germany:
    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/data-sets/ukraine-support-tracker-data-17410/

    As I've said passim, Germany's problem has been twofold: talking about giving, then saying they would not; and agreeing delivery of stuff, but not for years.

    Ukraine needs stuff now. Future promises matter little; what matters is the stuff that gets over there today, this week, or this month. Germany also looked really bad in preventing countries with Leopard MBTs from sending them to Ukraine (and as an aside, Switzerland looks really shitty on that mark as well).

    And TBF to the UK, we've been delivering. ISTR you were rather negative about the 10,000 training scheme when it was announced?
    tbf, according to your link if you include humanitarian and financial assistance "EU institutions" dwarfs both the UK and Germany. You could probably get Germany ahead on that measure if you include the German share of EU contributions.
    Whilst that's true, the article as about military aid (the title is 'Ukraine weapons: What military equipment is the world giving?'). And as the biggest power in the EU, Germany can always make sure that the smaller countries pay more. ;)

    But that's sorta the point: Germany are behind us in military aid, and the mood music around their 'contributions' has been very harmful, both to Ukraine and themselves. They're doing more than people think, but less than they say. And a lot less than they should ...
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,757

    DJ41 said:

    And in France...another grève générale begins.

    French citoyens are striking over plans to raise the French pension age to [checks notes] 64, up from 62. The French state pension is more complicated than ours, more generous than ours, and means tested at the top level. It also runs at a profit.

    Our state pension pays less, does not start till 67 (soon to be 68) and yet people obsess about the triple lock.
    It's a good trick to have a more generous state pension that also runs at a profit.
    How do the French do that?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,237
    Swedish govt moves to get rid of permits needed for dancing
    https://apnews.com/article/sweden-government-e0542960cfe612350af6051ef878396d
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,044

    I may be wrong but I’m not buying Ardern’s reasons for quitting.

    She wants to be remembered as the PM who won the huge landslide, going from an outright majority to potentially not winning a plurality in the next parliament (which was looking increasingly possible) would have stung. The tide has turned a little on the covid narratives too which can’t have helped.

    Be interesting where she ends up. Speculation on the politics segment on breakfast TV it will be a nice well,paid UN job.

    From the coverage it seems the world is losing a wise and revered statesman. A titan in the international political community. She certainly seems to have plenty of admirers in the mainstream media.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,368
    @timespolitics: Nadhim Zahawi has been accused of misleading journalists about his business dealings months before settling a multi… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615982731388768257
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,894
    Taz said:

    I may be wrong but I’m not buying Ardern’s reasons for quitting.

    She wants to be remembered as the PM who won the huge landslide, going from an outright majority to potentially not winning a plurality in the next parliament (which was looking increasingly possible) would have stung. The tide has turned a little on the covid narratives too which can’t have helped.

    Be interesting where she ends up. Speculation on the politics segment on breakfast TV it will be a nice well,paid UN job.

    From the coverage it seems the world is losing a wise and revered statesman. A titan in the international political community. She certainly seems to have plenty of admirers in the mainstream media.
    Arden is streets ahead of any PM here in recent decades, or likely in the next decade.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,368
    @catherine_mayer: Sorry to hear Jacinda Ardern is going but what a contrast to our sorry shower of clingers-on and chancers who are a… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1615983839372873731
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,365

    kamski said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK but people want to see it done with an air of prideful bellicosity, as exemplified by Baldy Ben, so Germany doesn't get the credit.
    "Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK"

    Do you have a source for that claim, as this indicates it isn't correct:
    https://www.statista.com/chart/27278/military-aid-to-ukraine-by-country/

    And if you take it wider, to include humanitarian and other support (but you mentioned weapons), we still seem to be doing better than Germany:
    https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/data-sets/ukraine-support-tracker-data-17410/

    As I've said passim, Germany's problem has been twofold: talking about giving, then saying they would not; and agreeing delivery of stuff, but not for years.

    Ukraine needs stuff now. Future promises matter little; what matters is the stuff that gets over there today, this week, or this month. Germany also looked really bad in preventing countries with Leopard MBTs from sending them to Ukraine (and as an aside, Switzerland looks really shitty on that mark as well).

    And TBF to the UK, we've been delivering. ISTR you were rather negative about the 10,000 training scheme when it was announced?
    tbf, according to your link if you include humanitarian and financial assistance "EU institutions" dwarfs both the UK and Germany. You could probably get Germany ahead on that measure if you include the German share of EU contributions.
    Whilst that's true, the article as about military aid (the title is 'Ukraine weapons: What military equipment is the world giving?'). And as the biggest power in the EU, Germany can always make sure that the smaller countries pay more. ;)

    But that's sorta the point: Germany are behind us in military aid, and the mood music around their 'contributions' has been very harmful, both to Ukraine and themselves. They're doing more than people think, but less than they say. And a lot less than they should ...
    Not sure exactly what you mean by "And as the biggest power in the EU, Germany can always make sure that the smaller countries pay more." in this context?

    As for "mood music" again not sure precisely what you mean, but maybe it's better this way than the mood music being "Germany are spearheading the arming of Ukraine against Russia" if you think about it. I know you are especially critical of Germany, and no doubt much of the criticism is justified, but it seems a bit strange to complain, as you have done, that they are much worse than France in terms of supporting Ukraine. Or to imply that Germany is much worse than everyone else in Europe, when there are clearly many European countries doing a lot less.
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    DJ41 said:

    And in France...another grève générale begins.

    French citoyens are striking over plans to raise the French pension age to [checks notes] 64, up from 62. The French state pension is more complicated than ours, more generous than ours, and means tested at the top level. It also runs at a profit.

    Our state pension pays less, does not start till 67 (soon to be 68) and yet people obsess about the triple lock.
    It's a good trick to have a more generous state pension that also runs at a profit.
    How do the French do that?
    It feels simplistic to say "French people pay more in, so they can take more out", but I imagine that's the heart of the matter.

    (See also the contribution rates for public sector pensions.)
  • Options

    DJ41 said:

    And in France...another grève générale begins.

    French citoyens are striking over plans to raise the French pension age to [checks notes] 64, up from 62. The French state pension is more complicated than ours, more generous than ours, and means tested at the top level. It also runs at a profit.

    Our state pension pays less, does not start till 67 (soon to be 68) and yet people obsess about the triple lock.
    It's a good trick to have a more generous state pension that also runs at a profit.
    How do the French do that?
    Aiui and IANAE the French have a pension investment fund, whereas we pay from taxation.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,368
    ...
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,365
    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Germany has actually donated a greater $/€ value of weapons than the UK but people want to see it done with an air of prideful bellicosity, as exemplified by Baldy Ben, so Germany doesn't get the credit.
    Some do, perhaps.
    But the reality is that Germany has done the right thing regarding weapons supplies several months later than everyone else. That has real consequences.

    Than *everyone* else? Bullshit.

    The most obvious comparisons would be with countries like Italy and France. Given that Germany also had further to move in terms of exporting into a war, and other historical factors , I think if anything Germany has done a bit more than I would have expected.

    Even on tanks, Germany has repeatedly said it won't export tanks unless the US does too.
    You can fairly take exception to my generalisation, sure - and certainly about Italy particularly.
    But it doesn't change the reality of Germany delay - and blocking of other countries sending German manufactured kit.
    Germany reversed its policy of blocking German manufactured kit to Ukraine on 26th February last year.

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954

    DJ41 said:

    And in France...another grève générale begins.

    French citoyens are striking over plans to raise the French pension age to [checks notes] 64, up from 62. The French state pension is more complicated than ours, more generous than ours, and means tested at the top level. It also runs at a profit.

    Our state pension pays less, does not start till 67 (soon to be 68) and yet people obsess about the triple lock.
    It's a good trick to have a more generous state pension that also runs at a profit.
    How do the French do that?
    Aiui and IANAE the French have a pension investment fund, whereas we pay from taxation.
    That must make a massive difference to the effective national savings' rate?
  • Options
    Top five women in the gammonati shitlist?
    Contributions invited to make it up to ten.

    1. Meghan (obvs)
    2. Greta
    3. Jacinda
    4. Nicola
    5. Jack Monroe

    Lifetime achievement award to Angela.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,337
    edited January 2023
    IanB2 said:

    DJ41 said:

    And in France...another grève générale begins.

    French citoyens are striking over plans to raise the French pension age to [checks notes] 64, up from 62. The French state pension is more complicated than ours, more generous than ours, and means tested at the top level. It also runs at a profit.

    Our state pension pays less, does not start till 67 (soon to be 68) and yet people obsess about the triple lock.
    It's a good trick to have a more generous state pension that also runs at a profit.
    How do the French do that?
    Aiui and IANAE the French have a pension investment fund, whereas we pay from taxation.
    That must make a massive difference to the effective national savings' rate?
    No idea. It is mainly rcs1000 who is obsessed with national savings rates, and possibly even then it is household savings rates. All I know is what comes from discussions with French colleagues; I'm no ChatGPT.

    eta You could say that ours is an age-based system whereas theirs is more a retirement-based benefit but remember IANAE or an AI chat bot.

    eta2 if this French strike takes off, you'd expect the news media to explain.
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,365

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    {innocent face}

    Then what's the Force de frappe for?
    The Force de Frappe is to protect France from Germany, which has a proud tradition of invading its southern neighbour, and to boost the late Charles de Gaulle's ego.
    Switzerland or Austria?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    Top five women in the gammonati shitlist?
    Contributions invited to make it up to ten.

    1. Meghan (obvs)
    2. Greta
    3. Jacinda
    4. Nicola
    5. Jack Monroe

    Lifetime achievement award to Angela.

    Which one? Rayner, Rippon or Merkel?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,054
    edited January 2023
    We need Boris back for some decisive, incorruptible government. Who doesn't use their distant cousin as an £800,000 guarantor whilst PM? And should he have been so inclined, this guarantor looks like a well qualified candidate for Chief Executive of the British Council doesn't he?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/18/labour-seeks-inquiry-into-boris-johnson-and-credit-facility-guaranteed-by-cousin
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,237
    edited January 2023

    This is rather pathetic by Ardern.

    Not leadership.

    The NZ economy (like everywhere) is facing headwinds, and the coming election looks challenging…but hardly terminal. Indeed I would have had Arden and Labour as very modest favourites.

    She just can’t be arsed.

    To be fair, I've once quit a job I wasn't enjoying and could no longer be arsed with.

    Don't see any shame in it. You'll be miserable and your employer won't be happy either.

    I don't share Arden's politics but don't necessarily think any less of her for it.

    She also has a young child, so I can quite believe that if she's not an absentee parent, she doesn't have enough "left in the tank".

    Better to admit to that now, than campaign for a mandate you don't have the energy to fulfil.
  • Options
    kamski said:

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    {innocent face}

    Then what's the Force de frappe for?
    The Force de Frappe is to protect France from Germany, which has a proud tradition of invading its southern neighbour, and to boost the late Charles de Gaulle's ego.
    Switzerland or Austria?
    France via Belgium.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,568
    edited January 2023

    I can't believe this is actually true. Germany banning the export of tanks to Ukraine unless America sends its own tanks would be absurd. It makes all Europe, not just Germany, look ridiculous. Dispiriting that there hasn't been a denial out of Berlin yet.

    https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1615814661345054735

    Why is it absurd? Given that Germany has no nuclear deterrent of its own and that the provision of MBTs would be a major escalation in the war, it doesn't seem unreasonable for Germany to expect a similar commitment from the US.
    Provision of MBT's isn't a 'major escalation' in the war.

    Although Russia tends to see everything as a 'major escalation'. "Someone wrote something nasty about Putin on PoliticalBetting.com! This is a major escalation! We shall nuke Bedford!"
    If Putin nukes Bedford, who becomes liable for the Capital Gains Tax caused by the improvement?
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295

    Top five women in the gammonati shitlist?
    Contributions invited to make it up to ten.

    1. Meghan (obvs)
    2. Greta
    3. Jacinda
    4. Nicola
    5. Jack Monroe

    Lifetime achievement award to Angela.

    NutNut was on there for a while when she was suspected of leading Johnson into an unmanly and unhelpful interest in animal welfare and environmentalism.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Top five women in the gammonati shitlist?
    Contributions invited to make it up to ten.

    1. Meghan (obvs)
    2. Greta
    3. Jacinda
    4. Nicola
    5. Jack Monroe

    Lifetime achievement award to Angela.

    Which one? Rayner, Rippon or Merkel?
    Rayner is on the ‘stirring the raddled old loins of the gammonati’ list.

    Lol, ‘loins’ autocorrected to ‘Leon’s’.
  • Options

    It's no surprise that people want a decent pay rise, and it's no surprise that the public is generally supportive of that. Today's inflation rate was slightly down at 10.5%, but food prices were rising at 16.8% to December. Meanwhile, energy bills keep rising whatever is happening to the wholesale cost of energy; I've just received notification that my monthly bill is £264 a month, compared with £97 at this time last year.

    Guess what average and low paid people spend much of their income on? Food and energy bills, and for many fuel. An average pay rise of 2.7% in the public sector just isn't enough, especially in the context of falling real incomes over the last 10 years for most public sector workers.

    In an ideal world everyone would have a pay rise to match inflation and of course everyone backs tax rises as long as it is not theirs

    I have no idea how this is resolved but Sunak and Hunt seem to have an accountants mentality of balancing the books and as they have come this far and taken the flak, I expect no change by them this side of the new tax year

    However, the big problem comes in April when pensions, benefits and the living wage do rise by 10.1% which by the way is fully endorsed by Starmer and indeed the Lib Dems, when in truth it should be capped nearer to 5%
    So, you'd cap benefit rises and the living wage rise to 5%. When food prices are rising by 16.8%, and even higher for many basic foodstuffs? Let them starve, eh? (Any by the way, I never said that pay rises should be in line with inflation - just that what is being offered is inadequate).
    That is not what I am saying

    Inflation will fall over the next 6 months and as we cannot afford 10% public sector rises neither can the triple lock be justified

    A fairer settlement would be nearer 5% maybe 6%
    Good morning! May I gently point out that there is a world of difference between lived inflation - how much the stuff I buy goes up - and paper inflation - the total of how much everyone buys goes up.

    The people in the lower deciles spend far more of their meagre cash on the things with the highest rates of inflation. They are already suffering real world inflation well north of the official figure. So your 5% cut would absolutely ream them whether paper inflation comes down or not.

    How else can I put this. The price increases in food - so many of which have been multiples higher than even the headline figures - are here to stay and prices are still going up, not peaking or coming back down. The idea that lived inflation will stop being a problem this year is disconnected from reality.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,101
    The UK's largest independent oil and gas producer says it's reviewing its operations and cutting investment due to the country's windfall tax

    https://twitter.com/BloombergUK/status/1615988783194804224
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,568
    Nigelb said:

    This is rather pathetic by Ardern.

    Not leadership.

    The NZ economy (like everywhere) is facing headwinds, and the coming election looks challenging…but hardly terminal. Indeed I would have had Arden and Labour as very modest favourites.

    She just can’t be arsed.

    To be fair, I've once quit a job I wasn't enjoying and could no longer be arsed with.

    Don't see any shame in it. You'll be miserable and your employer won't be happy either.

    I don't share Arden's politics but don't necessarily think any less of her for it.

    She also has a young child, so I can quite believe that if she's not an absentee parent, she doesn't have enough "left in the tank".

    Better to admit to that now, than campaign for a mandate you don't have the energy to fulfil.
    In Dr David Own's book on the mental health of leaders, he suggested that 2 terms/8 years seems to be a limit for many leaders. Past that, power seems to do some really bad stuff to them.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,954
    edited January 2023

    IanB2 said:

    DJ41 said:

    And in France...another grève générale begins.

    French citoyens are striking over plans to raise the French pension age to [checks notes] 64, up from 62. The French state pension is more complicated than ours, more generous than ours, and means tested at the top level. It also runs at a profit.

    Our state pension pays less, does not start till 67 (soon to be 68) and yet people obsess about the triple lock.
    It's a good trick to have a more generous state pension that also runs at a profit.
    How do the French do that?
    Aiui and IANAE the French have a pension investment fund, whereas we pay from taxation.
    That must make a massive difference to the effective national savings' rate?
    No idea. It is mainly rcs1000 who is obsessed with national savings rates, and possibly even then it is household savings rates. All I know is what comes from discussions with French colleagues; I'm no ChatGPT.

    eta You could say that ours is an age-based system whereas theirs is more a retirement-based benefit but remember IANAE or an AI chat bot.

    eta2 if this French strike takes off, you'd expect the news media to explain.
    A quick search suggests that the French Pension Reserve Fund was only created in 2001, intended to provide long-run finance for the state pension system. It has been funded from surpluses of pre-existing social security funds (suggesting that fund-financing itself pre-dated 2001?), privatisations, mobile phone licenses, and a stock market transaction tax. It looks like the latter has been the most significant.

    Payments out from the fund only expected to start in 2020.

    The original aim was to have a fund of €150 bn by 2020 - as at 2016 it had €36 bn.

    That's a lot of saved/invested money that the UK government will have just spent.

  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,332

    It's no surprise that people want a decent pay rise, and it's no surprise that the public is generally supportive of that. Today's inflation rate was slightly down at 10.5%, but food prices were rising at 16.8% to December. Meanwhile, energy bills keep rising whatever is happening to the wholesale cost of energy; I've just received notification that my monthly bill is £264 a month, compared with £97 at this time last year.

    Guess what average and low paid people spend much of their income on? Food and energy bills, and for many fuel. An average pay rise of 2.7% in the public sector just isn't enough, especially in the context of falling real incomes over the last 10 years for most public sector workers.

    In an ideal world everyone would have a pay rise to match inflation and of course everyone backs tax rises as long as it is not theirs

    I have no idea how this is resolved but Sunak and Hunt seem to have an accountants mentality of balancing the books and as they have come this far and taken the flak, I expect no change by them this side of the new tax year

    However, the big problem comes in April when pensions, benefits and the living wage do rise by 10.1% which by the way is fully endorsed by Starmer and indeed the Lib Dems, when in truth it should be capped nearer to 5%
    So, you'd cap benefit rises and the living wage rise to 5%. When food prices are rising by 16.8%, and even higher for many basic foodstuffs? Let them starve, eh? (Any by the way, I never said that pay rises should be in line with inflation - just that what is being offered is inadequate).
    That is not what I am saying

    Inflation will fall over the next 6 months and as we cannot afford 10% public sector rises neither can the triple lock be justified

    A fairer settlement would be nearer 5% maybe 6%
    Good morning! May I gently point out that there is a world of difference between lived inflation - how much the stuff I buy goes up - and paper inflation - the total of how much everyone buys goes up.

    The people in the lower deciles spend far more of their meagre cash on the things with the highest rates of inflation. They are already suffering real world inflation well north of the official figure. So your 5% cut would absolutely ream them whether paper inflation comes down or not.

    How else can I put this. The price increases in food - so many of which have been multiples higher than even the headline figures - are here to stay and prices are still going up, not peaking or coming back down. The idea that lived inflation will stop being a problem this year is disconnected from reality.
    I was reading this morning that the price of porridge oats has increased 188% in the last year.

    I don't know if it's true - it was a newspaper report - but if true that's extraordinary.

    I was particularly thinking about it this morning as I was making porridge, helpfully with some oats I bought a while ago.

    With the milk that has increased in price by around 48% in the last seven months...
This discussion has been closed.