Though I'm puzzled - how does one reconcile with an "archnemesis" ?
And is Elizabeth Arden on the todger a thing these days ?
In all seriousness, do we all think Harry is OK? Revealing those Afghanistan deaths seems odd
Not really, no.
But to be fair, I very much doubt he wrote the book. I doubt if he's even read it. Some ghost writer has had a series of conversations with him, in which he has had no-one around to advise him on how guarded to be. He isn't really a thoughtful or reflective sort - I expect he's sort of thought at the high level 'I want to write a tell all book' and instructed someone to make it happen, and not really thought too deeply about its implications.
Fair play to him. If you are going to write an autobiography (ghosted or otherwise) it has to be honest, warts and all. The amount of self-congratulatory, superficial pap on the market by various vacuous slebs amounts to several Waleses of rainforest.
I’m not a royal fan (indeed who could be given the awful truths we now know about them) but Harry’s book sounds an interesting read. I am considering buying it.
And many - most? - Brexit voters, ISTR, did not vote for Brexit for economic reasons but in order to retain some level of democratic control over their destiny. That's real, and has happened. You might argue our democratic control is weak, but that is a step up from nonexistent. You might argue that we haven't used our post-Brexit freedoms terribly well yet. But that doesn't mean the exercise was pointless.
We have less democratic control than before.
We used to be able to vote Dan Hannan out of office.
Now he has a job in our legislature for life.
Even by your standards this is idiotic. We can vote him out of office by electing a government to abolish the Lords.
This is like your argument that the SNP should win enough English seats to win a majority in Westminster to get Independence. That was also nonsense. Hannan could be ejected directly by the electorate (albeit with difficulty with the silly list system) while a member of the EU parliament. He can not be ejected directly by the electorate while in the Lords. In both cases he is a member of a parliament.
Permission to be surprised how small that shift is, Sir?
OK, it's one data point, and People Polling has never been tested in battle. But if rejoin is ahead (albeit within MoE and with a lot of don't knows) on "rejoin even after all the downsides are listed", that feels significant.
Except they don't list all the downsides. A commitment to join the Euro should be added to that list because even though it is something we might try to delay indefinitely, it would still be a legal commitment.
I can see this issue is going to be a major battlefield once the rejoin campaign starts. As I've said previously, as someone who doesn't want us to join the euro in the foreseeable future, the legal commitment to join at some point - with the option to defer indefinitely - doesn't keep me awake at night.
You're very optimistic if you think we'll be offered that. The EU will not take any risks on us leaving for a second time, and the best way for them to ensure that is for us to join the euro on day one of membership.
That is impossible under the rules governing euro membership. These rules are designed to ensure that the euro isn't compromised by economies joining before they are ready. I actually think the EU will be quite wary of us joining the Euro given how we crashed out of the ERM. Protecting the Euro is much more important to the EU than stopping us leaving, they're not going to endanger the former in pursuit of the latter.
An interesting interpretation of the EU's historical actions. In particular "it's the rules" has never stopped them doing what they want to do.
Exactly - if they want us and we don't want the €, they will find a way for us to stick with our own currency for yonks, like the Swedes have done. The question is whether they would want us, not what are the rules.
A minor derogation from FoM would have allowed 'Remain' to win in 2016. The EU would not do it. Yes, rules don't matter when the EU wants to do something, but when they don't they are a bunch of fundamentalists.
One problem is not seeing things from the other guys point of view.
In the case of the EU, the leading counties - France, Germany etc - saw FOM as a difficult thing. For them. The issues about wages for the low/no skilled apply there, as well as to the U.K.. Hence the riots in France on a regular basis.
What politicians, in those countries, saw was that if they compromised on FOM, everyone would want an “adjustment”.
The pro EU politicians involved saw FOM as something that they had jointly sacrificed for - a lynch pin of their wider vision for the EU.
So it was an unshakeable redline.
FOM is one of the greatest things about the EU and the right to live and work in 27 other countries is why I voted to Remain.
Thankfully I managed to protect that because of my family but am really sad that many younger people can no longer enjoy that.
Shame on all those so called loving grandparents who robbed their grandchildren of that freedom !
Indeed surveys in EU countries including France and Germany show people are overwhelmingly in favour of EU freedom of movement, and for most people it's the most valuable thing about being in the EU.
But - genuine question - why? How many genuinely move? And how do they do it? Is language just not an issue for our continental counterparts? .
I commend you to the French film L'Auberge Espagnole for an insight into the dynamics of this.
Lots do move around - particularly the younger generation. Hyper-particularly anybody who did Erasmus.
Are there any stats on who moves where? There could be some interesting analysis in this. My guess is that the highest movements are between countries which share a language (UK/Ireland, France/Belgium, Germany/Austria) and from other countries to the UK (since the European youth appears to speak English with ease). But there may well be much more at play here.
In general Western Europeans do not share the stark British terror of learning a foreign language so I don't think that is too much of a factor. The younger ones follow employment, educational and cultural opportunities so they end up in cities like Bruxelles, Barcelona and Amsterdam. The older ones follow the sun south.
Why do you think that is? Is it that Europeans are simply more exposed to other languages (principally, I suppose, English) through film, pop music, etc? I don't think I was ever terrified of learning a language - indeed, ISTR, I was quite keen to do so; I am genuinely very interested in language - but once it moved beyond simply memorising vocab, I simply couldn't do it.
I genuinely think its easier for most Western Europeans to learn English than for the Brit to learn other languages. Like it or not English dominates the world, whether by film, TV or music. Its the automatic second language choice in a way that is much harder for Brits (which do we choose? French, German, Japanese, Spanish etc).
That is true, and there is far more incentive for Europeans to learn English. In Germany, for example, a working knowledge of English is as essential for anyone doing anything remotely professional. English (or rather, an anodyne subset of English) is the de facto means of communication in most international settings. While I am pleased that I eventually learned German sufficiently well to integrate with German culture (and find a German wife), it was by no means essential for me to do my job there.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Permission to be surprised how small that shift is, Sir?
OK, it's one data point, and People Polling has never been tested in battle. But if rejoin is ahead (albeit within MoE and with a lot of don't knows) on "rejoin even after all the downsides are listed", that feels significant.
Except they don't list all the downsides. A commitment to join the Euro should be added to that list because even though it is something we might try to delay indefinitely, it would still be a legal commitment.
I can see this issue is going to be a major battlefield once the rejoin campaign starts. As I've said previously, as someone who doesn't want us to join the euro in the foreseeable future, the legal commitment to join at some point - with the option to defer indefinitely - doesn't keep me awake at night.
You're very optimistic if you think we'll be offered that. The EU will not take any risks on us leaving for a second time, and the best way for them to ensure that is for us to join the euro on day one of membership.
That is impossible under the rules governing euro membership. These rules are designed to ensure that the euro isn't compromised by economies joining before they are ready. I actually think the EU will be quite wary of us joining the Euro given how we crashed out of the ERM. Protecting the Euro is much more important to the EU than stopping us leaving, they're not going to endanger the former in pursuit of the latter.
An interesting interpretation of the EU's historical actions. In particular "it's the rules" has never stopped them doing what they want to do.
Exactly - if they want us and we don't want the €, they will find a way for us to stick with our own currency for yonks, like the Swedes have done. The question is whether they would want us, not what are the rules.
A minor derogation from FoM would have allowed 'Remain' to win in 2016. The EU would not do it. Yes, rules don't matter when the EU wants to do something, but when they don't they are a bunch of fundamentalists.
One problem is not seeing things from the other guys point of view.
In the case of the EU, the leading counties - France, Germany etc - saw FOM as a difficult thing. For them. The issues about wages for the low/no skilled apply there, as well as to the U.K.. Hence the riots in France on a regular basis.
What politicians, in those countries, saw was that if they compromised on FOM, everyone would want an “adjustment”.
The pro EU politicians involved saw FOM as something that they had jointly sacrificed for - a lynch pin of their wider vision for the EU.
So it was an unshakeable redline.
FOM is one of the greatest things about the EU and the right to live and work in 27 other countries is why I voted to Remain.
Thankfully I managed to protect that because of my family but am really sad that many younger people can no longer enjoy that.
Shame on all those so called loving grandparents who robbed their grandchildren of that freedom !
I'd be interested to see the stats in where Brits have gone to work abroad pre- and post-Brexit.
My guess (and it is only a guess) is that both pre- and post-Brexit, most working abroad is in Anglophone countries.
There are numerous barriers to working abroad, and the administrative ones are fairly trivial compared to the barriers of language, of culture, of the sheer bloody hassle of uprooting a family and moving them to a different part of the world. If it is worth overcoming those latter barriers, overcoming the right to work issue is fairly minor.
The reality is that for the vast majority of Brits, going to live and work in a country where English is not the first language is such a large barrier to overcome that having the right to do so is irrelevant.
If we had the right to live and work in Australia and New Zealand and Canada, that would be a different matter. But I think we gave that up in 1974.
I have a concert musician relative who's previous employers were the orchestras of Europe. She would be hired for a single concert or a small series. Brexit was a career ending event for her. No employer will do the paperwork, no matter how simple, if everyone else can walk straight in. My employer offered assignments of several weeks to a couple of years in Europe to UK based staff. Now only open to EEA staff. etc
Freedom of Movement is as much a state of mind as a set of regulations. It's a genuine liberty we no longer enjoy in the UK. No-one in France or Germany expects any barriers when crossing from Strasbourg to Freiburg, any more than we might expect barriers when moving from Birmingham to Manchester, even if we have no specific intention of making that move.
Permission to be surprised how small that shift is, Sir?
OK, it's one data point, and People Polling has never been tested in battle. But if rejoin is ahead (albeit within MoE and with a lot of don't knows) on "rejoin even after all the downsides are listed", that feels significant.
Except they don't list all the downsides. A commitment to join the Euro should be added to that list because even though it is something we might try to delay indefinitely, it would still be a legal commitment.
I can see this issue is going to be a major battlefield once the rejoin campaign starts. As I've said previously, as someone who doesn't want us to join the euro in the foreseeable future, the legal commitment to join at some point - with the option to defer indefinitely - doesn't keep me awake at night.
You're very optimistic if you think we'll be offered that. The EU will not take any risks on us leaving for a second time, and the best way for them to ensure that is for us to join the euro on day one of membership.
That is impossible under the rules governing euro membership. These rules are designed to ensure that the euro isn't compromised by economies joining before they are ready. I actually think the EU will be quite wary of us joining the Euro given how we crashed out of the ERM. Protecting the Euro is much more important to the EU than stopping us leaving, they're not going to endanger the former in pursuit of the latter.
An interesting interpretation of the EU's historical actions. In particular "it's the rules" has never stopped them doing what they want to do.
Exactly - if they want us and we don't want the €, they will find a way for us to stick with our own currency for yonks, like the Swedes have done. The question is whether they would want us, not what are the rules.
A minor derogation from FoM would have allowed 'Remain' to win in 2016. The EU would not do it. Yes, rules don't matter when the EU wants to do something, but when they don't they are a bunch of fundamentalists.
One problem is not seeing things from the other guys point of view.
In the case of the EU, the leading counties - France, Germany etc - saw FOM as a difficult thing. For them. The issues about wages for the low/no skilled apply there, as well as to the U.K.. Hence the riots in France on a regular basis.
What politicians, in those countries, saw was that if they compromised on FOM, everyone would want an “adjustment”.
The pro EU politicians involved saw FOM as something that they had jointly sacrificed for - a lynch pin of their wider vision for the EU.
So it was an unshakeable redline.
FOM is one of the greatest things about the EU and the right to live and work in 27 other countries is why I voted to Remain.
Thankfully I managed to protect that because of my family but am really sad that many younger people can no longer enjoy that.
Shame on all those so called loving grandparents who robbed their grandchildren of that freedom !
Indeed surveys in EU countries including France and Germany show people are overwhelmingly in favour of EU freedom of movement, and for most people it's the most valuable thing about being in the EU.
But - genuine question - why? How many genuinely move? And how do they do it? Is language just not an issue for our continental counterparts? .
I commend you to the French film L'Auberge Espagnole for an insight into the dynamics of this.
Lots do move around - particularly the younger generation. Hyper-particularly anybody who did Erasmus.
Are there any stats on who moves where? There could be some interesting analysis in this. My guess is that the highest movements are between countries which share a language (UK/Ireland, France/Belgium, Germany/Austria) and from other countries to the UK (since the European youth appears to speak English with ease). But there may well be much more at play here.
In general Western Europeans do not share the stark British terror of learning a foreign language so I don't think that is too much of a factor. The younger ones follow employment, educational and cultural opportunities so they end up in cities like Bruxelles, Barcelona and Amsterdam. The older ones follow the sun south.
Why do you think that is? Is it that Europeans are simply more exposed to other languages (principally, I suppose, English) through film, pop music, etc? I don't think I was ever terrified of learning a language - indeed, ISTR, I was quite keen to do so; I am genuinely very interested in language - but once it moved beyond simply memorising vocab, I simply couldn't do it.
I genuinely think its easier for most Western Europeans to learn English than for the Brit to learn other languages. Like it or not English dominates the world, whether by film, TV or music. Its the automatic second language choice in a way that is much harder for Brits (which do we choose? French, German, Japanese, Spanish etc).
That is true, and there is far more incentive for Europeans to learn English. In Germany, for example, a working knowledge of English is as essential for anyone doing anything remotely professional. English (or rather, an anodyne subset of English) is the de facto means of communication in most international settings. While I am pleased that I eventually learned German sufficiently well to integrate with German culture (and find a German wife), it was by no means essential for me to do my job there.
Whats the German for 'Yes, dear', 'No, dear' and 'I'll do it in a minute'?
"China has recorded only 22 Covid deaths since December"
Recorded being the key word. Turkmenistan plays this game as well. So far they have recorded no Covid cases or deaths. Obviously this is because the Turkmen are the world's healthiest people, in a country that has the world's best universal healthcare, all due to the beneficence of the Turkmenistan government, and anyone who says otherwise is a tool of fascist imperialism.
Looks like Harry's family and the paps might be the least of his concerns in future years with his ill advised boast about Afghanistan. Still I guess he does have royal security
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
I miss all your Starmer baiting. Brittas, Captain Hindsight, Keith Stormer. You don't appear to have your heart in it any more.
We're just taking a break.
He's still massively underwhelming.
Like Starmer, Mr Sunak is no gold-dusted national treasure comedy turn like Johnson either.
He just needs to quietly get the job done this year. And he'll have stolen the only prospect Starmer has to offer.
I believe you need a black swan event or the return of Johnson. You could be home and dry with either and certainly both.
Waiting for an oxygen sensor to be fitted to my car at Sytner in Newport. It's very quiet here today. No takers yet for the £138,000 lime green M8 in front of me. The cold wind of recession must be biting.
And many - most? - Brexit voters, ISTR, did not vote for Brexit for economic reasons but in order to retain some level of democratic control over their destiny. That's real, and has happened. You might argue our democratic control is weak, but that is a step up from nonexistent. You might argue that we haven't used our post-Brexit freedoms terribly well yet. But that doesn't mean the exercise was pointless.
We have less democratic control than before.
We used to be able to vote Dan Hannan out of office.
Now he has a job in our legislature for life.
Even by your standards this is idiotic. We can vote him out of office by electing a government to abolish the Lords.
This is like your argument that the SNP should win enough English seats to win a majority in Westminster to get Independence. That was also nonsense. Hannan could be ejected directly by the electorate (albeit with difficulty with the silly list system) while a member of the EU parliament. He can not be ejected directly by the electorate while in the Lords. In both cases he is a member of a parliament.
It is very different.
The objection to MEPs was not that they were not elected.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
Though I'm puzzled - how does one reconcile with an "archnemesis" ?
And is Elizabeth Arden on the todger a thing these days ?
In all seriousness, do we all think Harry is OK? Revealing those Afghanistan deaths seems odd
He is just putting his name to this stuff; it is ghostwritten by a pro on instructions from Meg and comes across like a less talented version of Dan Brown.
The horsey lady behind the pub gets more incredible; she is now said to like "macho" horses. I can't think of a stranger adjective to apply to a horse, nor one more guaranteed to make anyone with any sense run a mile from it.
But I do know more than one soldier who has told me their personal score, after a drink or two.
And many - most? - Brexit voters, ISTR, did not vote for Brexit for economic reasons but in order to retain some level of democratic control over their destiny. That's real, and has happened. You might argue our democratic control is weak, but that is a step up from nonexistent. You might argue that we haven't used our post-Brexit freedoms terribly well yet. But that doesn't mean the exercise was pointless.
We have less democratic control than before.
We used to be able to vote Dan Hannan out of office.
Now he has a job in our legislature for life.
Even by your standards this is idiotic. We can vote him out of office by electing a government to abolish the Lords.
This is like your argument that the SNP should win enough English seats to win a majority in Westminster to get Independence. That was also nonsense. Hannan could be ejected directly by the electorate (albeit with difficulty with the silly list system) while a member of the EU parliament. He can not be ejected directly by the electorate while in the Lords. In both cases he is a member of a parliament.
It is very different.
The objection to MEPs was not that they were not elected.
Permission to be surprised how small that shift is, Sir?
OK, it's one data point, and People Polling has never been tested in battle. But if rejoin is ahead (albeit within MoE and with a lot of don't knows) on "rejoin even after all the downsides are listed", that feels significant.
Except they don't list all the downsides. A commitment to join the Euro should be added to that list because even though it is something we might try to delay indefinitely, it would still be a legal commitment.
I can see this issue is going to be a major battlefield once the rejoin campaign starts. As I've said previously, as someone who doesn't want us to join the euro in the foreseeable future, the legal commitment to join at some point - with the option to defer indefinitely - doesn't keep me awake at night.
You're very optimistic if you think we'll be offered that. The EU will not take any risks on us leaving for a second time, and the best way for them to ensure that is for us to join the euro on day one of membership.
That is impossible under the rules governing euro membership. These rules are designed to ensure that the euro isn't compromised by economies joining before they are ready. I actually think the EU will be quite wary of us joining the Euro given how we crashed out of the ERM. Protecting the Euro is much more important to the EU than stopping us leaving, they're not going to endanger the former in pursuit of the latter.
An interesting interpretation of the EU's historical actions. In particular "it's the rules" has never stopped them doing what they want to do.
Exactly - if they want us and we don't want the €, they will find a way for us to stick with our own currency for yonks, like the Swedes have done. The question is whether they would want us, not what are the rules.
A minor derogation from FoM would have allowed 'Remain' to win in 2016. The EU would not do it. Yes, rules don't matter when the EU wants to do something, but when they don't they are a bunch of fundamentalists.
One problem is not seeing things from the other guys point of view.
In the case of the EU, the leading counties - France, Germany etc - saw FOM as a difficult thing. For them. The issues about wages for the low/no skilled apply there, as well as to the U.K.. Hence the riots in France on a regular basis.
What politicians, in those countries, saw was that if they compromised on FOM, everyone would want an “adjustment”.
The pro EU politicians involved saw FOM as something that they had jointly sacrificed for - a lynch pin of their wider vision for the EU.
So it was an unshakeable redline.
FOM is one of the greatest things about the EU and the right to live and work in 27 other countries is why I voted to Remain.
Thankfully I managed to protect that because of my family but am really sad that many younger people can no longer enjoy that.
Shame on all those so called loving grandparents who robbed their grandchildren of that freedom !
The grandkids will just have to make do with the house....
On which subject: I am seeing increasingly frantic reports in the media of falling house prices. This is being reported in the tone that falling house prices are a bad thing. My guess is that most people who have thought about the matter have a view on what the 'right' value of houses should be - no-one genuinely thinks it a good thing if house prices continue to significantly outpace inflation, nor to fall away to nothing. My view is that house prices are some way above this 'right' level*, and have been for some time - and therefore, falling house prices are to be welcomed (cautiously - clearly there are winners and losers to this, and we don't want too many losers losing too much too quickly - a 'rebalancing' is probably preferable to a 'shock'.) My guess is that this has gone from being a minority position (as it probably would have been, in say, 1992) to a majority position (i.e. most people would welcome lower house prices). But again, this is a guess, and I would be genuinely interested if there is any evidence to where the balance lies.
(I am (largely through good fortune) a homeowner, so am notionally well off as a result of high house prices - but it is entirely notional: I need exactly one house to live in; I have no particular desire to move to another house, but if I did that other house would be expensive too. But I would like, one day, my children to be able to afford to be homeowners.)
*The 'right' level, for me, is that a steady but not necessarily massively well-paid middle class job - teacher, say, or policeman - should pay enough to be able to afford a mortgage on a 'normal' house - a three bed semi in Timperley, say - without needing an inheritance or other intergenerational assistance.
Apologies to keep bringing up same issue, but the fundamental problem is that house prices are falling, whilst build costs are rising, due to labour cost inflation and undersupply, and the rising cost of materials, and there is an increase in regulation around new building. Until build costs fall to the same degree as house prices, we are in deep trouble, because no houses can be built: the development industry will crash in large parts of the country. The only option open to the government is to deregulate, but they are heading in the opposite direction, more and more regulation, it is a bureaucrats bonanza - for instance, flats above a certain height now need to have two stairwells so there is an alternative fire exit.
I agree that house prices are too high, but ultimately house price inflation cannot be disentangled from general inflation. What I do think though is that undersupply in large parts of the country means that prices cannot fall that much, particularly given population increase.
Are you sure about his lack of building ?
There's about 6 new estates going up within a 5 mile radius circle of my house.
In Southern Hampshire if feels like every field is being filled with houses, and we are getting a whole new town shortly, Welbourne.
I just googled the new town of “Welborne”. It’s really pretty - in Poundbury style. It is a little toy town ish - but so what. Who cares. It is attractive and desirable and better than 98% of domestic architecture built since 1923
Is this the King Charles Effect? Is he levelling up our built environment? If he manages this he will be King Charles the Great
And many - most? - Brexit voters, ISTR, did not vote for Brexit for economic reasons but in order to retain some level of democratic control over their destiny. That's real, and has happened. You might argue our democratic control is weak, but that is a step up from nonexistent. You might argue that we haven't used our post-Brexit freedoms terribly well yet. But that doesn't mean the exercise was pointless.
We have less democratic control than before.
We used to be able to vote Dan Hannan out of office.
Now he has a job in our legislature for life.
Even by your standards this is idiotic. We can vote him out of office by electing a government to abolish the Lords.
This is like your argument that the SNP should win enough English seats to win a majority in Westminster to get Independence. That was also nonsense. Hannan could be ejected directly by the electorate (albeit with difficulty with the silly list system) while a member of the EU parliament. He can not be ejected directly by the electorate while in the Lords. In both cases he is a member of a parliament.
It is very different.
The objection to MEPs was not that they were not elected.
What? Of course they were elected. You might object to the system by which they were elected, and I might object to the lunatic fascists that were elected under the leadership of Nigel Farage, but they were most definitely elected.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
I think a change of government is their big idea.
A necessary but not on its own sufficient condition.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
1% a month each way is a modest and quite possible reaction to the crazy ups and downs of May-Johnson-Truss era of politics.
Squeaky bum time for Labour once both main parties are in the 30s.
Looks like Harry's family and the paps might be the least of his concerns in future years with his ill advised boast about Afghanistan. Still I guess he does have royal security
I daresay the redtops are in negotiations with the Taliban as we speak to instruct an asset to head to the Hollywood Hills.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
lol, while I might rather hope that the Tories will make some sort of recovery, that type of "hope and pray" analysis is very HYUFDish. MM is vying for HY's position as undisputed holder of the "Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Cup"
The Tories are continuing to be kicked in the polls. Labour shouldn't get too cocky yet though. Though they probably will.
Looks like Harry's family and the paps might be the least of his concerns in future years with his ill advised boast about Afghanistan. Still I guess he does have royal security
I daresay the redtops are in negotiations with the Taliban as we speak to instruct an asset to head to the Hollywood Hills.
And being told by the Taliban Thanks, but we already had a pretty good handle on what Apache attack helicopters do, what with the clue in the name.
And many - most? - Brexit voters, ISTR, did not vote for Brexit for economic reasons but in order to retain some level of democratic control over their destiny. That's real, and has happened. You might argue our democratic control is weak, but that is a step up from nonexistent. You might argue that we haven't used our post-Brexit freedoms terribly well yet. But that doesn't mean the exercise was pointless.
We have less democratic control than before.
We used to be able to vote Dan Hannan out of office.
Now he has a job in our legislature for life.
Even by your standards this is idiotic. We can vote him out of office by electing a government to abolish the Lords.
This is like your argument that the SNP should win enough English seats to win a majority in Westminster to get Independence. That was also nonsense. Hannan could be ejected directly by the electorate (albeit with difficulty with the silly list system) while a member of the EU parliament. He can not be ejected directly by the electorate while in the Lords. In both cases he is a member of a parliament.
It is very different.
The objection to MEPs was not that they were not elected.
?
Never said it was.
I'm talking about the nonsense of stating that we can vote him out of the Lords by voting in a Govt that abolishes the Lords. That is not voting him out at all by any stretch of the imagination. We have no vote to actually get rid of him. Whereas when he was an MEP we could directly vote him out (albeit with difficulty, but it was an actual election).
And as pointed out that is as daft as your suggestion that the SNP should try and win a majority at Westminster to get Independence. Another ridiculous suggestion.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
We appear to have returned to the over-analysis of hypothetical polling at some undefined point in the future that shows the Conservative Party doing substantially better than it is in actual polling at a clearly defined point in the present.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
We appear to have returned to the over-analysis of hypothetical polling at some undefined point in the future that shows the Conservative Party doing substantially better than it is in actual polling at a clearly defined point in the present.
It is, indeed, a funny old world.
Best of all, it's unprovable that a party gains 1% in the polls from one month to another, due to the small sample size.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
Not yet. Far too early. Any good ideas will simply be stolen by a Tory government that is barren of any ideas of its own.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
lol, while I might rather hope that the Tories will make some sort of recovery, that type of "hope and pray" analysis is very HYUFDish. MM is vying for HY's position as undisputed holder of the "Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Cup"
The Tories are continuing to be kicked in the polls. Labour shouldn't get too cocky yet though. Though they probably will.
Suggesting a 1% swing per month from a desperately low point for the Tories (and it comes no lower than Liz Truss) is hardly Comical Ali turf.
I suspect Labour's lead will be sub 12% by mid year. If I'm wrong, gloat.
If I'm right, BOW DOWN BEFORE YOUR PSEPHOLOGIST GOD.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
100%. Like any opposition that has ever transitioned into government, they will do that on their own terms , with careful timing and avoiding silly traps. Tories would love anything that distracts from their current responsibilities and dismal record.
The speech this week was interesting. It had more content than Sunak’s.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
I think a change of government is their big idea.
Yes, that's rather what I'm afraid of.
Yes sadly it is not encouraging. I hope their plan is to not to scare the horses at this point in time by coming out with anything interesting. I'm of the view that we are all going to be grateful to get rid of this lot, but the next lot might not be a whole lot better.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
Not yet. Far too early. Any good ideas will simply be stolen by a Tory government that is barren of any ideas of its own.
“An undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to know what it is.”
Looks like Harry's family and the paps might be the least of his concerns in future years with his ill advised boast about Afghanistan. Still I guess he does have royal security
I daresay the redtops are in negotiations with the Taliban as we speak to instruct an asset to head to the Hollywood Hills.
And being told by the Taliban Thanks, but we already had a pretty good handle on what Apache attack helicopters do, what with the clue in the name.
Yes, but what an idiot. Really not something terrible sensible to boast about (which is what it was). It is a bit like Salmon Rushdie deciding to brag about how many Muslims he has offended.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
lol, while I might rather hope that the Tories will make some sort of recovery, that type of "hope and pray" analysis is very HYUFDish. MM is vying for HY's position as undisputed holder of the "Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Cup"
The Tories are continuing to be kicked in the polls. Labour shouldn't get too cocky yet though. Though they probably will.
Suggesting a 1% swing per month from a desperately low point for the Tories (and it comes no lower than Liz Truss) is hardly Comical Ali turf.
I suspect Labour's lead will be sub 12% by mid year. If I'm wrong, gloat.
If I'm right, BOW DOWN BEFORE YOUR PSEPHOLOGIST GOD.
I suspect LAB will be around 5% to 10% clear by year end, no more.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
I miss all your Starmer baiting. Brittas, Captain Hindsight, Keith Stormer. You don't appear to have your heart in it any more.
We're just taking a break.
He's still massively underwhelming.
Like Starmer, Mr Sunak is no gold-dusted national treasure comedy turn like Johnson either.
He just needs to quietly get the job done this year. And he'll have stolen the only prospect Starmer has to offer.
I believe you need a black swan event or the return of Johnson. You could be home and dry with either and certainly both.
Waiting for an oxygen sensor to be fitted to my car at Sytner in Newport. It's very quiet here today. No takers yet for the £138,000 lime green M8 in front of me. The cold wind of recession must be biting.
Must have been a BMW Individual order gone tits up as there are no greens available as standard on the M8. They'll take a lot less if you finance it through Sytner...
My E63 M6 is currently the only one of my seven cars that doesn't work! Needs an ECU from a US model to make it run with the 6 speed manual.
Through it seems relentless throwing of hordes of mobilised at the Ukrainians. The weight of numbers does seem to be allowing them to make slow progress.
The West really need to speed up delivery of IFVs and really dig out some of the MBTs in storage. Even the old ones are better than anything in the field currently.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
1% a month each way is a modest and quite possible reaction to the crazy ups and downs of May-Johnson-Truss era of politics.
Squeaky bum time for Labour once both main parties are in the 30s.
I can understand Mike Smithson’s sudden alarm. Can this site handle two HY’s talking gibberish? 😆
The truth is, having failed on tax, failed on growth, failed on borrowing, failed on immigration, failed on asylum invasion and processing claims, failed to deliver the promise of Brexit and levelling up, utterly failed on NHS and failed on education, why shouldn’t there be a sizeable rebellion leakage to Reform next time from what had been so used to voting Farage up to 2019?
The reality current polling shows Tories going backwards away from thirties, and Labour advancing again to 50s, and the liturgy of Tory failure suggest hard work for Tories to get vote out next time or prevent lots of leakage to Reform, not just leakage to the other parties.
And whether Starmer government with bonus of incumbency can quickly be ousted depends on the Tory offering. Trussism under Badenoch, Sunakism (whatever that is if it’s not high tax) under one of current cabinet, Johnsonism under Boris etc etc. How can you expect to win elections when you havn’t a clear position on anything anymore?
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
100%. Like any opposition that has ever transitioned into government, they will do that on their own terms , with careful timing and avoiding silly traps. Tories would love anything that distracts from their current responsibilities and dismal record.
The speech this week was interesting. It had more content than Sunak’s.
Correct. The PB Tories must think Starmer is really stupid. Why would the Opposition reveal its manifesto to a timetable helpful to its opponents?
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
lol, while I might rather hope that the Tories will make some sort of recovery, that type of "hope and pray" analysis is very HYUFDish. MM is vying for HY's position as undisputed holder of the "Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Cup"
The Tories are continuing to be kicked in the polls. Labour shouldn't get too cocky yet though. Though they probably will.
Suggesting a 1% swing per month from a desperately low point for the Tories (and it comes no lower than Liz Truss) is hardly Comical Ali turf.
I suspect Labour's lead will be sub 12% by mid year. If I'm wrong, gloat.
If I'm right, BOW DOWN BEFORE YOUR PSEPHOLOGIST GOD.
Has your account been hacked by @HYUFD and @Leon simultaneously?
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
1% a month each way is a modest and quite possible reaction to the crazy ups and downs of May-Johnson-Truss era of politics.
Squeaky bum time for Labour once both main parties are in the 30s.
I can understand Mike Smithson’s sudden alarm. Can this site handle two HY’s talking gibberish? 😆
The truth is, having failed on tax, failed on growth, failed on borrowing, failed on immigration, failed on asylum invasion and processing claims, failed to deliver the promise of Brexit and levelling up, utterly failed on NHS and failed on education, why shouldn’t there be a sizeable rebellion leakage to Reform next time from what had been so used to voting Farage up to 2019?
The reality current polling shows Tories going backwards away from thirties, and Labour advancing again to 50s, and the liturgy of Tory failure suggest hard work for Tories to get vote out next time or prevent lots of leakage to Reform, not just leakage to the other parties.
And whether Starmer government with bonus of incumbency can quickly be ousted depends on the Tory offering. Trussism under Badenoch, Sunakism (whatever that is if it’s not high tax) under one of current cabinet, Johnsonism under Boris etc etc. How can you expect to win elections when you havn’t a clear position on anything anymore?
I would love to see two HYUFDs having an argument with one another.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
1% a month each way is a modest and quite possible reaction to the crazy ups and downs of May-Johnson-Truss era of politics.
Squeaky bum time for Labour once both main parties are in the 30s.
I can understand Mike Smithson’s sudden alarm. Can this site handle two HY’s talking gibberish? 😆
The truth is, having failed on tax, failed on growth, failed on borrowing, failed on immigration, failed on asylum invasion and processing claims, failed to deliver the promise of Brexit and levelling up, utterly failed on NHS and failed on education, why shouldn’t there be a sizeable rebellion leakage to Reform next time from what had been so used to voting Farage up to 2019?
The reality current polling shows Tories going backwards away from thirties, and Labour advancing again to 50s, and the liturgy of Tory failure suggest hard work for Tories to get vote out next time or prevent lots of leakage to Reform, not just leakage to the other parties.
And whether Starmer government with bonus of incumbency can quickly be ousted depends on the Tory offering. Trussism under Badenoch, Sunakism (whatever that is if it’s not high tax) under one of current cabinet, Johnsonism under Boris etc etc. How can you expect to win elections when you havn’t a clear position on anything anymore?
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
1% a month each way is a modest and quite possible reaction to the crazy ups and downs of May-Johnson-Truss era of politics.
Squeaky bum time for Labour once both main parties are in the 30s.
I can understand Mike Smithson’s sudden alarm. Can this site handle two HY’s talking gibberish? 😆
The truth is, having failed on tax, failed on growth, failed on borrowing, failed on immigration, failed on asylum invasion and processing claims, failed to deliver the promise of Brexit and levelling up, utterly failed on NHS and failed on education, why shouldn’t there be a sizeable rebellion leakage to Reform next time from what had been so used to voting Farage up to 2019?
The reality current polling shows Tories going backwards away from thirties, and Labour advancing again to 50s, and the liturgy of Tory failure suggest hard work for Tories to get vote out next time or prevent lots of leakage to Reform, not just leakage to the other parties.
And whether Starmer government with bonus of incumbency can quickly be ousted depends on the Tory offering. Trussism under Badenoch, Sunakism (whatever that is if it’s not high tax) under one of current cabinet, Johnsonism under Boris etc etc. How can you expect to win elections when you havn’t a clear position on anything anymore?
I would love to see two HYUFDs having an argument with one another.
Not sure that there are enough spare parts to run two Covenanter tanks at the same time…
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
lol, while I might rather hope that the Tories will make some sort of recovery, that type of "hope and pray" analysis is very HYUFDish. MM is vying for HY's position as undisputed holder of the "Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Cup"
The Tories are continuing to be kicked in the polls. Labour shouldn't get too cocky yet though. Though they probably will.
Suggesting a 1% swing per month from a desperately low point for the Tories (and it comes no lower than Liz Truss) is hardly Comical Ali turf.
I suspect Labour's lead will be sub 12% by mid year. If I'm wrong, gloat.
If I'm right, BOW DOWN BEFORE YOUR PSEPHOLOGIST GOD.
I think it's hard to imagine there would not be bumps along the road that wouldn't require bigger improvements in the remaining months. And that would be more challenging that if you could monotonically improve.
I don't think the polls will be 12% by mid year, but I wouldn't be surprised if the May NEV, with a lot of LD friendly territory covered, showed Labour a good few points below their poll ratings.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
lol, while I might rather hope that the Tories will make some sort of recovery, that type of "hope and pray" analysis is very HYUFDish. MM is vying for HY's position as undisputed holder of the "Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf Cup"
The Tories are continuing to be kicked in the polls. Labour shouldn't get too cocky yet though. Though they probably will.
Suggesting a 1% swing per month from a desperately low point for the Tories (and it comes no lower than Liz Truss) is hardly Comical Ali turf.
I suspect Labour's lead will be sub 12% by mid year. If I'm wrong, gloat.
If I'm right, BOW DOWN BEFORE YOUR PSEPHOLOGIST GOD.
Has your account been hacked by @HYUFD and @Leon simultaneously?
He's ordered ChatGP (or whatever it's called) to write something in Hyufd's style, but is accidentally using Leon's account?
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
1% a month each way is a modest and quite possible reaction to the crazy ups and downs of May-Johnson-Truss era of politics.
Squeaky bum time for Labour once both main parties are in the 30s.
I can understand Mike Smithson’s sudden alarm. Can this site handle two HY’s talking gibberish? 😆
The truth is, having failed on tax, failed on growth, failed on borrowing, failed on immigration, failed on asylum invasion and processing claims, failed to deliver the promise of Brexit and levelling up, utterly failed on NHS and failed on education, why shouldn’t there be a sizeable rebellion leakage to Reform next time from what had been so used to voting Farage up to 2019?
The reality current polling shows Tories going backwards away from thirties, and Labour advancing again to 50s, and the liturgy of Tory failure suggest hard work for Tories to get vote out next time or prevent lots of leakage to Reform, not just leakage to the other parties.
And whether Starmer government with bonus of incumbency can quickly be ousted depends on the Tory offering. Trussism under Badenoch, Sunakism (whatever that is if it’s not high tax) under one of current cabinet, Johnsonism under Boris etc etc. How can you expect to win elections when you havn’t a clear position on anything anymore?
I would love to see two HYUFDs having an argument with one another.
So more don't knows support HYUFD1 than undecideds pledge for HYUFD2 even if a plurality of Reform voters supported both HYUFDs in 1973
Prince Harry is clearly going through a long running mental health crisis. I am not surprised at all the Royal Family didn’t properly support him.
That is possibly the best (only?) criticism he has.
He's clearly a very troubled man.
This did amuse me about his latest issues.
The one on the left, apart from kinky stockings and heels, is naked?
An arrow in eye doesn’t mean you were shot with an arrow through the eye, it means vengeance from God for being a bad Catholic. In just the same way, being blown over by a burlesque stripper into the dogs bowl is indicative of something?
And many - most? - Brexit voters, ISTR, did not vote for Brexit for economic reasons but in order to retain some level of democratic control over their destiny. That's real, and has happened. You might argue our democratic control is weak, but that is a step up from nonexistent. You might argue that we haven't used our post-Brexit freedoms terribly well yet. But that doesn't mean the exercise was pointless.
We have less democratic control than before.
We used to be able to vote Dan Hannan out of office.
Now he has a job in our legislature for life.
We did vote out Martin Callanan. He also now has a seat in the Lords for life*. Voting the buggers out is no guarantee that you've got rid of them.
*Subject to the next government potentially giving them all the boot.
Through it seems relentless throwing of hordes of mobilised at the Ukrainians. The weight of numbers does seem to be allowing them to make slow progress.
The West really need to speed up delivery of IFVs and really dig out some of the MBTs in storage. Even the old ones are better than anything in the field currently.
I wonder why Rishi hasn't sent any of the 700+ Warriors that the MoD have on their hands since they cancelled CSP. I think he's just not that into Ukraine. Maybe they are not good enough at maths for his liking.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
Not yet. Far too early. Any good ideas will simply be stolen by a Tory government that is barren of any ideas of its own.
That excuse keeps being trotted out, but it doesn't wash.
A policy announced by Labour implemented by the Tories is a win for Labour, not a loss.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
100%. Like any opposition that has ever transitioned into government, they will do that on their own terms , with careful timing and avoiding silly traps. Tories would love anything that distracts from their current responsibilities and dismal record.
The speech this week was interesting. It had more content than Sunak’s.
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
100%. Like any opposition that has ever transitioned into government, they will do that on their own terms , with careful timing and avoiding silly traps. Tories would love anything that distracts from their current responsibilities and dismal record.
The speech this week was interesting. It had more content than Sunak’s.
Correct. The PB Tories must think Starmer is really stupid. Why would the Opposition reveal its manifesto to a timetable helpful to its opponents?
I expect the polls to close and for PB Tories to get all excited at some point between now and the next general election. However, I also expect Labour to weather the storm.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the three Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
Any chance of them using that strength and focus to give us some ideas about how to improve the country?
100%. Like any opposition that has ever transitioned into government, they will do that on their own terms , with careful timing and avoiding silly traps. Tories would love anything that distracts from their current responsibilities and dismal record.
The speech this week was interesting. It had more content than Sunak’s.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
I miss all your Starmer baiting. Brittas, Captain Hindsight, Keith Stormer. You don't appear to have your heart in it any more.
Tories only need to increase an average of a point a month and Labour slip a point a month this year for Rishi to be back in the game for the election next year.
Quite doable against Starmer.
For Rishi to be back in the game the Tories need a lead of 4-5%. Worse than that then Starmer would likely become PM
Tories gaining 1% a month this year and Labour losing 1% a month would see the Tories going into 2024 leading 37% - 34%.
Like I said, back in the game...
Has our friend HYUFD been coaching you?
1% a month each way is a modest and quite possible reaction to the crazy ups and downs of May-Johnson-Truss era of politics.
Squeaky bum time for Labour once both main parties are in the 30s.
I can understand Mike Smithson’s sudden alarm. Can this site handle two HY’s talking gibberish? 😆
The truth is, having failed on tax, failed on growth, failed on borrowing, failed on immigration, failed on asylum invasion and processing claims, failed to deliver the promise of Brexit and levelling up, utterly failed on NHS and failed on education, why shouldn’t there be a sizeable rebellion leakage to Reform next time from what had been so used to voting Farage up to 2019?
The reality current polling shows Tories going backwards away from thirties, and Labour advancing again to 50s, and the liturgy of Tory failure suggest hard work for Tories to get vote out next time or prevent lots of leakage to Reform, not just leakage to the other parties.
And whether Starmer government with bonus of incumbency can quickly be ousted depends on the Tory offering. Trussism under Badenoch, Sunakism (whatever that is if it’s not high tax) under one of current cabinet, Johnsonism under Boris etc etc. How can you expect to win elections when you havn’t a clear position on anything anymore?
I would love to see two HYUFDs having an argument with one another.
Could HM lock the princes in the tower and not let them out until they had sorted out their differences?
Or as before let their evil old uncle implement a solution.
That was as part of seizing the throne. I don't think Charles would be mad keen to be cut off himself and his ghost see Peter Phillips accidentally inherit by default.
I've spoken to Keir and asked that a few days before the Labour manifesto is released a copy is sent to the person in the UK most interested in it - @Driver
SeaShanty and Jim Miller are probably familiar with the details of this story, but I have to admit most of it is new to me.
Fascinating long read article, which goes quite some way to explain (though not at all to justify) why Republicans since Gingrich have consistently behaved like utter assholes. (And also shows Gore's decision finally to concede in 2000 to be commendable statesmanship, even though he believed he'd won.)
Permission to be surprised how small that shift is, Sir?
OK, it's one data point, and People Polling has never been tested in battle. But if rejoin is ahead (albeit within MoE and with a lot of don't knows) on "rejoin even after all the downsides are listed", that feels significant.
Except they don't list all the downsides. A commitment to join the Euro should be added to that list because even though it is something we might try to delay indefinitely, it would still be a legal commitment.
I can see this issue is going to be a major battlefield once the rejoin campaign starts. As I've said previously, as someone who doesn't want us to join the euro in the foreseeable future, the legal commitment to join at some point - with the option to defer indefinitely - doesn't keep me awake at night.
You're very optimistic if you think we'll be offered that. The EU will not take any risks on us leaving for a second time, and the best way for them to ensure that is for us to join the euro on day one of membership.
That is impossible under the rules governing euro membership. These rules are designed to ensure that the euro isn't compromised by economies joining before they are ready. I actually think the EU will be quite wary of us joining the Euro given how we crashed out of the ERM. Protecting the Euro is much more important to the EU than stopping us leaving, they're not going to endanger the former in pursuit of the latter.
An interesting interpretation of the EU's historical actions. In particular "it's the rules" has never stopped them doing what they want to do.
Exactly - if they want us and we don't want the €, they will find a way for us to stick with our own currency for yonks, like the Swedes have done. The question is whether they would want us, not what are the rules.
A minor derogation from FoM would have allowed 'Remain' to win in 2016. The EU would not do it. Yes, rules don't matter when the EU wants to do something, but when they don't they are a bunch of fundamentalists.
One problem is not seeing things from the other guys point of view.
In the case of the EU, the leading counties - France, Germany etc - saw FOM as a difficult thing. For them. The issues about wages for the low/no skilled apply there, as well as to the U.K.. Hence the riots in France on a regular basis.
What politicians, in those countries, saw was that if they compromised on FOM, everyone would want an “adjustment”.
The pro EU politicians involved saw FOM as something that they had jointly sacrificed for - a lynch pin of their wider vision for the EU.
So it was an unshakeable redline.
FOM is one of the greatest things about the EU and the right to live and work in 27 other countries is why I voted to Remain.
Thankfully I managed to protect that because of my family but am really sad that many younger people can no longer enjoy that.
Shame on all those so called loving grandparents who robbed their grandchildren of that freedom !
Indeed surveys in EU countries including France and Germany show people are overwhelmingly in favour of EU freedom of movement, and for most people it's the most valuable thing about being in the EU.
But - genuine question - why? How many genuinely move? And how do they do it? Is language just not an issue for our continental counterparts? .
I commend you to the French film L'Auberge Espagnole for an insight into the dynamics of this.
Lots do move around - particularly the younger generation. Hyper-particularly anybody who did Erasmus.
Are there any stats on who moves where? There could be some interesting analysis in this. My guess is that the highest movements are between countries which share a language (UK/Ireland, France/Belgium, Germany/Austria) and from other countries to the UK (since the European youth appears to speak English with ease). But there may well be much more at play here.
In general Western Europeans do not share the stark British terror of learning a foreign language so I don't think that is too much of a factor. The younger ones follow employment, educational and cultural opportunities so they end up in cities like Bruxelles, Barcelona and Amsterdam. The older ones follow the sun south.
British people aren't afraid to learn a foreign language. They just generally don't need to, and if they try to speak a foreign language in that language's country they usually find people speaking english back at them.
Quite. Eventually you stop trying, because everyone you want to practise on, wants to practise on you.
I live in a part of Spain with significant numbers of non Spanish including many English. The problem you identify is there but there are great benefits to persevering. The locals really appreciate it, accessing all public services is much easier and you acquire a new skill. For me it's is a great boon especially as I'm not a 'natural' linguist.
Yeah hate to be a spoilsport but there's a touch of wow look how clever the natives are at playing sophisticated western music.
Marvellous example of a comment that says everything about the commenter and nothing about what he is trying to comment on.
Marvellous example of a comment that says everything about the commenter and nothing about what he is trying to comment on.
Twat.
No, really. If something evokes something poisonous in your own head, just keep quiet about it.
Above, all, don't attribute the poison to other people and start abusing them.
Twat x2.
Same question to you - what exactly is so joyous about the clip?
The people in it seem to be having a lot of fun?
England players' reaction on winning the Euros is a similarly joyous clip (or indeed Messi's on winning the world cup) and, I guess, less open to your interpretation.*
*unless they have a touch of 'wow look how clever the women are at playing manly games' etc
ETA: Be careful, btw. Don't too many twats make a Twitter? We don't want that!
Comments
But that is a splendid URL. Imagine giving that to ChatGPLoen to play with....
I’m not a royal fan (indeed who could be given the awful truths we now know about them) but Harry’s book sounds an interesting read. I am considering buying it.
It is very different.
Freedom of Movement is as much a state of mind as a set of regulations. It's a genuine liberty we no longer enjoy in the UK. No-one in France or Germany expects any barriers when crossing from Strasbourg to Freiburg, any more than we might expect barriers when moving from Birmingham to Manchester, even if we have no specific intention of making that move.
Waiting for an oxygen sensor to be fitted to my car at Sytner in Newport. It's very quiet here today. No takers yet for the £138,000 lime green M8 in front of me. The cold wind of recession must be biting.
The thing I like about the current Labour Party is that they are not passive in all this. They were instrumental in the demise of each of the Tory PMs last year. Their political positioning has been spot on and they have used Parliament effectively.
There is a strong, focused team behind Starmer. Sunak not so much.
The horsey lady behind the pub gets more incredible; she is now said to like "macho" horses. I can't think of a stranger adjective to apply to a horse, nor one more guaranteed to make anyone with any sense run a mile from it.
But I do know more than one soldier who has told me their personal score, after a drink or two.
Is this the King Charles Effect? Is he levelling up our built environment? If he manages this he will be King Charles the Great
Squeaky bum time for Labour once both main parties are in the 30s.
Probably!
The Tories are continuing to be kicked in the polls. Labour shouldn't get too cocky yet though. Though they probably will.
Never said it was.
I'm talking about the nonsense of stating that we can vote him out of the Lords by voting in a Govt that abolishes the Lords. That is not voting him out at all by any stretch of the imagination. We have no vote to actually get rid of him. Whereas when he was an MEP we could directly vote him out (albeit with difficulty, but it was an actual election).
And as pointed out that is as daft as your suggestion that the SNP should try and win a majority at Westminster to get Independence. Another ridiculous suggestion.
It is, indeed, a funny old world.
I suspect Labour's lead will be sub 12% by mid year. If I'm wrong, gloat.
If I'm right, BOW DOWN BEFORE YOUR PSEPHOLOGIST GOD.
The speech this week was interesting. It had more content than Sunak’s.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOhRzBt6mvQ
https://twitter.com/alisonkriel/status/1526813347810779139?s=46&t=HognWYkuC1G7V-yYASQcRA
But I might be wrong 👍
My E63 M6 is currently the only one of my seven cars that doesn't work! Needs an ECU from a US model to make it run with the 6 speed manual.
Update from Bakhmut 6 January.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1611325546260221953
Through it seems relentless throwing of hordes of mobilised at the Ukrainians. The weight of numbers does seem to be allowing them to make slow progress.
The West really need to speed up delivery of IFVs and really dig out some of the MBTs in storage. Even the old ones are better than anything in the field currently.
The truth is, having failed on tax, failed on growth, failed on borrowing, failed on immigration, failed on asylum invasion and processing claims, failed to deliver the promise of Brexit and levelling up, utterly failed on NHS and failed on education, why shouldn’t there be a sizeable rebellion leakage to Reform next time from what had been so used to voting Farage up to 2019?
The reality current polling shows Tories going backwards away from thirties, and Labour advancing again to 50s, and the liturgy of Tory failure suggest hard work for Tories to get vote out next time or prevent lots of leakage to Reform, not just leakage to the other parties.
And whether Starmer government with bonus of incumbency can quickly be ousted depends on the Tory offering. Trussism under Badenoch, Sunakism (whatever that is if it’s not high tax) under one of current cabinet, Johnsonism under Boris etc etc. How can you expect to win elections when you havn’t a clear position on anything anymore?
Anyway my car is ready now. I'm off.
EXC: A major reduction in the energy bills support package for businesses is due next week
Current package is £18bn for six months
New package to be c. £5bn for a year, so £2.5bn per six months
That’s a big drop. Plus prices will no longer be capped.
30 point Labour lead. Incoming.
I don't think the polls will be 12% by mid year, but I wouldn't be surprised if the May NEV, with a lot of LD friendly territory covered, showed Labour a good few points below their poll ratings.
An arrow in eye doesn’t mean you were shot with an arrow through the eye, it means vengeance from God for being a bad Catholic. In just the same way, being blown over by a burlesque stripper into the dogs bowl is indicative of something?
If you haven't watched it, you are genuinely missing a treat. Not only brilliantly played but all those happy smiling faces.
*Subject to the next government potentially giving them all the boot.
A policy announced by Labour implemented by the Tories is a win for Labour, not a loss.
The curious thing about Sunak is that somehow he keeps missing the mark. My hunch is there is something wrong with the team around him.
Sunak is much, much worse...
Sunak’s plan for new minimum service levels could lead to *more* strikes and other disruption according to the government’s own impact assessment https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1611327460771090435/photo/1
Rishi Sunak's plot to sack nurses is a disgrace.
https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1611338546912051200
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rishi-sunak-does-not-rule-out-sacking-striking-nhs-workers-under-new-laws_uk_63b7f98fe4b0ae9de1bd76b3
Pop songs which include xylophones:
Mama Mia by Abba
Gone Daddy Gone by the Violent Femmes.
I can't think of any others. Missed opportunity, rock n roll.
Which party do voters trust the most on...? (Labour | Conservatives)
Tackling poverty (45% | 16%)
NHS (45% | 17%)
Managing housing (41% | 20%)
Education (41% | 21%)
Immigration (31% | 24%)
Ukraine (28% | 31%) https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1611358222991908865/photo/1
A bit like having large glossy photos of African tribesmen up on your walls at home.
Soz.
All we can say is that pretty soon afterwards people thought he had. But that's it.
Fascinating long read article, which goes quite some way to explain (though not at all to justify) why Republicans since Gingrich have consistently behaved like utter assholes.
(And also shows Gore's decision finally to concede in 2000 to be commendable statesmanship, even though he believed he'd won.)
The ‘Stolen’ Election That Poisoned American Politics. It Happened in 1984.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/01/06/indiana-8th-1984-election-recount-00073924
Twat.
Above, all, don't attribute the poison to other people and start abusing them.
What exactly do you find so joyous about it?
Same question to you - what exactly is so joyous about the clip?
https://www.ons.gov.uk/census/maps/choropleth/identity/sexual-orientation/sexual-orientation-4a/lesbian-gay-bisexual-or-other-lgb?msoa=E02000979
England players' reaction on winning the Euros is a similarly joyous clip (or indeed Messi's on winning the world cup) and, I guess, less open to your interpretation.*
*unless they have a touch of 'wow look how clever the women are at playing manly games' etc
ETA: Be careful, btw. Don't too many twats make a Twitter? We don't want that!