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Could 2023 see Sunak’s Tories edging back in the polls? – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,455
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sunak needs to go COBRA on the NHS and crisis mode it for 6-9 months to clear the backlog - possibly longer. Nightingale it.

    I don't know how much this would cost (£10bn? £20bn? £30bn?) but I'd say doing that is probably more electorally crucial for him right now than banking up for 1p off income tax, which probably won't shift the dial that much.

    A lot will be down to luck- whether the economy starts to turn the corner or not, and thus help out HMT. Personally, I think it will.

    You need to add a zero. 60-90 months is realistically probably £100-£300 billion spent.

    It took 10 years and that sort of spending to get the waiting lists down from the numbers we see today to the level of service that we had in 2010.

    The limiting step is personnel (many of whom are quitting) and facilities more than cash. It takes time to train new people and build modern new facilities, as well as concentrated and disciplined management from the top. As ever, staff retention is the place to start.

    Perhaps Sunak simply has it down in the "too hard" column of problems, and impossible to make headway before the next election. He may well be right, and simply accept the festering NHS crisis has to continue.
    I think demonstrating intent and a plan for action, even if it hasn't yet born fruit, is politically crucial for him.

    FWIW, I think Sunak is motivated by doing the right thing for Britain long-term as much as he is improving the Tories electoral prospects. He knows re-election in 2 years is a very tall order.

    It's why I like him.
    I am not convinced. He is a step up from the mendacious buffoon and the bonkers half wit that preceeded him, but it could hardly be a step down from there. He has steadied things rather as a bull in a China shop can do, by falling asleep.

    I don't see any real understanding of how to mend the countries downward spiral, and his choice of cabinet does not inspire confidence. He seems a pleasant enough chap on a personal level, just completely over-promoted.
    Wait and see. I'm convinced he has a plan for this year.

    It might not shift the dial, and it might not work, but I think he has something.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sunak needs to go COBRA on the NHS and crisis mode it for 6-9 months to clear the backlog - possibly longer. Nightingale it.

    I don't know how much this would cost (£10bn? £20bn? £30bn?) but I'd say doing that is probably more electorally crucial for him right now than banking up for 1p off income tax, which probably won't shift the dial that much.

    A lot will be down to luck- whether the economy starts to turn the corner or not, and thus help out HMT. Personally, I think it will.

    You need to add a zero. 60-90 months is realistically probably £100-£300 billion spent.

    It took 10 years and that sort of spending to get the waiting lists down from the numbers we see today to the level of service that we had in 2010.

    The limiting step is personnel (many of whom are quitting) and facilities more than cash. It takes time to train new people and build modern new facilities, as well as concentrated and disciplined management from the top. As ever, staff retention is the place to start.

    Perhaps Sunak simply has it down in the "too hard" column of problems, and impossible to make headway before the next election. He may well be right, and simply accept the festering NHS crisis has to continue.
    I think demonstrating intent and a plan for action, even if it hasn't yet born fruit, is politically crucial for him.

    FWIW, I think Sunak is motivated by doing the right thing for Britain long-term as much as he is improving the Tories electoral prospects. He knows re-election in 2 years is a very tall order.

    It's why I like him.
    I am not convinced. He is a step up from the mendacious buffoon and the bonkers half wit that preceeded him, but it could hardly be a step down from there. He has steadied things rather as a bull in a China shop can do, by falling asleep.

    I don't see any real understanding of how to mend the countries downward spiral, and his choice of cabinet does not inspire confidence. He seems a pleasant enough chap on a personal level, just completely over-promoted.
    1990 > John Major
    2022 > Rishi Sunak

    Liz Truss was at best a cosplay Maggie Thatcher, and a bad one at that.

    Think RM is closer to JM in style AND substance.

    Though Rishi was never given thumbs down applying for a job as a bus driver.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    I think you under estimate how core having a decent phone and contract is to youngsters. Perhaps it would be better for them to not have them, but they are addicted to them, and being separated from them is hell.
    I'm not sure about this, our kids have mostly had hand me down phones (we did get our 13yo son a refurbished iPhone for his birthday this year but our 16yo daughter is still fine with one of our old huawei phones; our 10yo daughter doesn't have a phone). They have monthly sim only packages that cost IIRC about £10/month each, which seem to be fine. My son occasionally runs out of data. Perhaps they are less status/fashion conscious than other kids - I think kids in London are generally less status-conscious than kids elsewhere for some reason, and sending them to a comprehensive school means they're not surrounded by spoilt rich kids with absurdly expensive tech.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Just catching up with this afternoon's posts. I wasn't aware of how well the Conservatives are doing and that the CoL crisis is over too.

    Good work over Christmas you Tories!
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    I think you under estimate how core having a decent phone and contract is to youngsters. Perhaps it would be better for them to not have them, but they are addicted to them, and being separated from them is hell.
    I'm not sure about this, our kids have mostly had hand me down phones (we did get our 13yo son a refurbished iPhone for his birthday this year but our 16yo daughter is still fine with one of our old huawei phones; our 10yo daughter doesn't have a phone). They have monthly sim only packages that cost IIRC about £10/month each, which seem to be fine. My son occasionally runs out of data. Perhaps they are less status/fashion conscious than other kids - I think kids in London are generally less status-conscious than kids elsewhere for some reason, and sending them to a comprehensive school means they're not surrounded by spoilt rich kids with absurdly expensive tech.
    You should be able to beat £10/month nowadays unless you want 20GB data.
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/cheap-mobile-finder/sim-only/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sunak needs to go COBRA on the NHS and crisis mode it for 6-9 months to clear the backlog - possibly longer. Nightingale it.

    I don't know how much this would cost (£10bn? £20bn? £30bn?) but I'd say doing that is probably more electorally crucial for him right now than banking up for 1p off income tax, which probably won't shift the dial that much.

    A lot will be down to luck- whether the economy starts to turn the corner or not, and thus help out HMT. Personally, I think it will.

    You need to add a zero. 60-90 months is realistically probably £100-£300 billion spent.

    It took 10 years and that sort of spending to get the waiting lists down from the numbers we see today to the level of service that we had in 2010.

    The limiting step is personnel (many of whom are quitting) and facilities more than cash. It takes time to train new people and build modern new facilities, as well as concentrated and disciplined management from the top. As ever, staff retention is the place to start.

    Perhaps Sunak simply has it down in the "too hard" column of problems, and impossible to make headway before the next election. He may well be right, and simply accept the festering NHS crisis has to continue.
    I think demonstrating intent and a plan for action, even if it hasn't yet born fruit, is politically crucial for him.

    FWIW, I think Sunak is motivated by doing the right thing for Britain long-term as much as he is improving the Tories electoral prospects. He knows re-election in 2 years is a very tall order.

    It's why I like him.
    I am not convinced. He is a step up from the mendacious buffoon and the bonkers half wit that preceeded him, but it could hardly be a step down from there. He has steadied things rather as a bull in a China shop can do, by falling asleep.

    I don't see any real understanding of how to mend the countries downward spiral, and his choice of cabinet does not inspire confidence. He seems a pleasant enough chap on a personal level, just completely over-promoted.
    Wait and see. I'm convinced he has a plan for this year.

    It might not shift the dial, and it might not work, but I think he has something.
    Sunak is clearly a huge improvement on his immediate two predecessors, maybe on his immediate four precessors. Nevertheless, I doubt that he has a plan, beyond trying to survive the year. He strikes me as clever and hard-working with good attention to detail and an ability to work well with other people, but nothing he has said or done suggests to me that he has a real plan. He is better at spin than substance (eat out to help out), he has poor judgement (supported Brexit, thought he could get away with his wife being a non-dom), and seems to be a bad judge of people (Williamson). I think he faces serious danger from both Johnson and Farage this year. He's inexperienced too, and it shows.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    I think you under estimate how core having a decent phone and contract is to youngsters. Perhaps it would be better for them to not have them, but they are addicted to them, and being separated from them is hell.
    I'm not sure about this, our kids have mostly had hand me down phones (we did get our 13yo son a refurbished iPhone for his birthday this year but our 16yo daughter is still fine with one of our old huawei phones; our 10yo daughter doesn't have a phone). They have monthly sim only packages that cost IIRC about £10/month each, which seem to be fine. My son occasionally runs out of data. Perhaps they are less status/fashion conscious than other kids - I think kids in London are generally less status-conscious than kids elsewhere for some reason, and sending them to a comprehensive school means they're not surrounded by spoilt rich kids with absurdly expensive tech.
    Indeed. I’m sure Mr Eagles thinks that everyone buys kids expensive phones on new contracts, which will inevitably get expensively damaged at some point, because kids.

    Here’s a refurb iPhone, that Apple were selling new 9 months ago, for £229.
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/iPhone-2nd-generation-white-refurbished/dp/B08D351RSN
    I know they’re good, because I bought my parents one each for Christmas, to replace their ageing iPhone 5 models.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,659
    edited January 2023

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    I think you under estimate how core having a decent phone and contract is to youngsters. Perhaps it would be better for them to not have them, but they are addicted to them, and being separated from them is hell.
    I'm not sure about this, our kids have mostly had hand me down phones (we did get our 13yo son a refurbished iPhone for his birthday this year but our 16yo daughter is still fine with one of our old huawei phones; our 10yo daughter doesn't have a phone). They have monthly sim only packages that cost IIRC about £10/month each, which seem to be fine. My son occasionally runs out of data. Perhaps they are less status/fashion conscious than other kids - I think kids in London are generally less status-conscious than kids elsewhere for some reason, and sending them to a comprehensive school means they're not surrounded by spoilt rich kids with absurdly expensive tech.
    Part of being poor is having some simple pleasures. Smoking, takeaways, nights out, and phones too. Often their only Internet.

    People may think these are poor financial decisions, but at £1.50 a day on the never never it isn't bad value for several hours of social life per day.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    I think you under estimate how core having a decent phone and contract is to youngsters. Perhaps it would be better for them to not have them, but they are addicted to them, and being separated from them is hell.
    I'm not sure about this, our kids have mostly had hand me down phones (we did get our 13yo son a refurbished iPhone for his birthday this year but our 16yo daughter is still fine with one of our old huawei phones; our 10yo daughter doesn't have a phone). They have monthly sim only packages that cost IIRC about £10/month each, which seem to be fine. My son occasionally runs out of data. Perhaps they are less status/fashion conscious than other kids - I think kids in London are generally less status-conscious than kids elsewhere for some reason, and sending them to a comprehensive school means they're not surrounded by spoilt rich kids with absurdly expensive tech.
    You should be able to beat £10/month nowadays unless you want 20GB data.
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/cheap-mobile-finder/sim-only/
    Yes it's that thing where the deal starts out cheap and then you notice a year or two down the line that it's gone up by about 50%. It was 8GB for £8 originally IIRC. But I think they get something like 10GB now. I probably need to take a look at it again at some point.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    12GB, 5G, WiFi calling, Free roaming - £6,90/month
    I lie the first six months are £1.49
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/cheap-mobile-finder/sim-only/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    I think you under estimate how core having a decent phone and contract is to youngsters. Perhaps it would be better for them to not have them, but they are addicted to them, and being separated from them is hell.
    I'm not sure about this, our kids have mostly had hand me down phones (we did get our 13yo son a refurbished iPhone for his birthday this year but our 16yo daughter is still fine with one of our old huawei phones; our 10yo daughter doesn't have a phone). They have monthly sim only packages that cost IIRC about £10/month each, which seem to be fine. My son occasionally runs out of data. Perhaps they are less status/fashion conscious than other kids - I think kids in London are generally less status-conscious than kids elsewhere for some reason, and sending them to a comprehensive school means they're not surrounded by spoilt rich kids with absurdly expensive tech.
    Part of being poor is having some simple pleasures. Smoking, takeaways, nights out, and phones too. Often their only Internet.

    People may think these are poor financial decisions, but at £1.50 a day on the never never it isn't bad value for several hours of social life per day.
    Phones all look the same anyway so I have no idea what kind of phone anyone has, rich or poor. They all do the same things, too. The last couple of phones I've had have been Huawei and they've been great, I'm gutted that the Americans seem to be out to destroy them, so much for free trade!
    My main gripe about kids and phones is Tiktok. It's just all so utterly inane.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    I think you under estimate how core having a decent phone and contract is to youngsters. Perhaps it would be better for them to not have them, but they are addicted to them, and being separated from them is hell.
    I'm not sure about this, our kids have mostly had hand me down phones (we did get our 13yo son a refurbished iPhone for his birthday this year but our 16yo daughter is still fine with one of our old huawei phones; our 10yo daughter doesn't have a phone). They have monthly sim only packages that cost IIRC about £10/month each, which seem to be fine. My son occasionally runs out of data. Perhaps they are less status/fashion conscious than other kids - I think kids in London are generally less status-conscious than kids elsewhere for some reason, and sending them to a comprehensive school means they're not surrounded by spoilt rich kids with absurdly expensive tech.
    You should be able to beat £10/month nowadays unless you want 20GB data.
    https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/cheap-mobile-finder/sim-only/
    Yes it's that thing where the deal starts out cheap and then you notice a year or two down the line that it's gone up by about 50%. It was 8GB for £8 originally IIRC. But I think they get something like 10GB now. I probably need to take a look at it again at some point.
    It's a bit of a hassle checking each year but you can save a lot.
    It's worth checking the signal in your area (e.g. '3' is bad in ours and iD mobile offer good deals we can't use). Also check if you can keep your number, not all allow it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sunak needs to go COBRA on the NHS and crisis mode it for 6-9 months to clear the backlog - possibly longer. Nightingale it.

    I don't know how much this would cost (£10bn? £20bn? £30bn?) but I'd say doing that is probably more electorally crucial for him right now than banking up for 1p off income tax, which probably won't shift the dial that much.

    A lot will be down to luck- whether the economy starts to turn the corner or not, and thus help out HMT. Personally, I think it will.

    You need to add a zero. 60-90 months is realistically probably £100-£300 billion spent.

    It took 10 years and that sort of spending to get the waiting lists down from the numbers we see today to the level of service that we had in 2010.

    The limiting step is personnel (many of whom are quitting) and facilities more than cash. It takes time to train new people and build modern new facilities, as well as concentrated and disciplined management from the top. As ever, staff retention is the place to start.

    Perhaps Sunak simply has it down in the "too hard" column of problems, and impossible to make headway before the next election. He may well be right, and simply accept the festering NHS crisis has to continue.
    I think demonstrating intent and a plan for action, even if it hasn't yet born fruit, is politically crucial for him.

    FWIW, I think Sunak is motivated by doing the right thing for Britain long-term as much as he is improving the Tories electoral prospects. He knows re-election in 2 years is a very tall order.

    It's why I like him.
    I am not convinced. He is a step up from the mendacious buffoon and the bonkers half wit that preceeded him, but it could hardly be a step down from there. He has steadied things rather as a bull in a China shop can do, by falling asleep.

    I don't see any real understanding of how to mend the countries downward spiral, and his choice of cabinet does not inspire confidence. He seems a pleasant enough chap on a personal level, just completely over-promoted.
    Wait and see. I'm convinced he has a plan for this year.

    It might not shift the dial, and it might not work, but I think he has something.
    Sunak is clearly a huge improvement on his immediate two predecessors, maybe on his immediate four precessors. Nevertheless, I doubt that he has a plan, beyond trying to survive the year. He strikes me as clever and hard-working with good attention to detail and an ability to work well with other people, but nothing he has said or done suggests to me that he has a real plan. He is better at spin than substance (eat out to help out), he has poor judgement (supported Brexit, thought he could get away with his wife being a non-dom), and seems to be a bad judge of people (Williamson). I think he faces serious danger from both Johnson and Farage this year. He's inexperienced too, and it shows.
    Whether he has a plan isn’t the issue - the issue is that any bold plans he might have are undeliverable given the quarrelling rabble he has for a parliamentary party, and because his political capital account is barely in credit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,327

    rcs1000 said:

    This is the wife of Clarence Thomas and yet he doesn't recuse himself.

    It's rather scary isn't it?
    Indeed, yet 'Seer' Leon tells us the most dangerous thing in America is the woke.
    IMAGINEER, Thankyou
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is the wife of Clarence Thomas and yet he doesn't recuse himself.

    It's rather scary isn't it?
    Indeed, yet 'Seer' Leon tells us the most dangerous thing in America is the woke.
    IMAGINEER, Thankyou
    That’s clearly killed the thread, either that or everyone is too busy laughing at Liverpool…
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited January 2023
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sunak needs to go COBRA on the NHS and crisis mode it for 6-9 months to clear the backlog - possibly longer. Nightingale it.

    I don't know how much this would cost (£10bn? £20bn? £30bn?) but I'd say doing that is probably more electorally crucial for him right now than banking up for 1p off income tax, which probably won't shift the dial that much.

    A lot will be down to luck- whether the economy starts to turn the corner or not, and thus help out HMT. Personally, I think it will.

    You need to add a zero. 60-90 months is realistically probably £100-£300 billion spent.

    It took 10 years and that sort of spending to get the waiting lists down from the numbers we see today to the level of service that we had in 2010.

    The limiting step is personnel (many of whom are quitting) and facilities more than cash. It takes time to train new people and build modern new facilities, as well as concentrated and disciplined management from the top. As ever, staff retention is the place to start.

    Perhaps Sunak simply has it down in the "too hard" column of problems, and impossible to make headway before the next election. He may well be right, and simply accept the festering NHS crisis has to continue.
    I think demonstrating intent and a plan for action, even if it hasn't yet born fruit, is politically crucial for him.

    FWIW, I think Sunak is motivated by doing the right thing for Britain long-term as much as he is improving the Tories electoral prospects. He knows re-election in 2 years is a very tall order.

    It's why I like him.
    I am not convinced. He is a step up from the mendacious buffoon and the bonkers half wit that preceeded him, but it could hardly be a step down from there. He has steadied things rather as a bull in a China shop can do, by falling asleep.

    I don't see any real understanding of how to mend the countries downward spiral, and his choice of cabinet does not inspire confidence. He seems a pleasant enough chap on a personal level, just completely over-promoted.
    Wait and see. I'm convinced he has a plan for this year.

    It might not shift the dial, and it might not work, but I think he has something.
    Sunak is clearly a huge improvement on his immediate two predecessors, maybe on his immediate four precessors. Nevertheless, I doubt that he has a plan, beyond trying to survive the year. He strikes me as clever and hard-working with good attention to detail and an ability to work well with other people, but nothing he has said or done suggests to me that he has a real plan. He is better at spin than substance (eat out to help out), he has poor judgement (supported Brexit, thought he could get away with his wife being a non-dom), and seems to be a bad judge of people (Williamson). I think he faces serious danger from both Johnson and Farage this year. He's inexperienced too, and it shows.
    Whether he has a plan isn’t the issue - the issue is that any bold plans he might have are undeliverable given the quarrelling rabble he has for a parliamentary party, and because his political capital account is barely in credit.
    Maybe he should have thought about that, before staging a thinly-disguised coup against the leader chosen by the members, within days of the late Queen’s funeral.

    Some of us may have suggested over the summer, that the hyperbolic language coming from Team Sunak did lead them to wonder if they could accept the result.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sunak needs to go COBRA on the NHS and crisis mode it for 6-9 months to clear the backlog - possibly longer. Nightingale it.

    I don't know how much this would cost (£10bn? £20bn? £30bn?) but I'd say doing that is probably more electorally crucial for him right now than banking up for 1p off income tax, which probably won't shift the dial that much.

    A lot will be down to luck- whether the economy starts to turn the corner or not, and thus help out HMT. Personally, I think it will.

    You need to add a zero. 60-90 months is realistically probably £100-£300 billion spent.

    It took 10 years and that sort of spending to get the waiting lists down from the numbers we see today to the level of service that we had in 2010.

    The limiting step is personnel (many of whom are quitting) and facilities more than cash. It takes time to train new people and build modern new facilities, as well as concentrated and disciplined management from the top. As ever, staff retention is the place to start.

    Perhaps Sunak simply has it down in the "too hard" column of problems, and impossible to make headway before the next election. He may well be right, and simply accept the festering NHS crisis has to continue.
    I think demonstrating intent and a plan for action, even if it hasn't yet born fruit, is politically crucial for him.

    FWIW, I think Sunak is motivated by doing the right thing for Britain long-term as much as he is improving the Tories electoral prospects. He knows re-election in 2 years is a very tall order.

    It's why I like him.
    I am not convinced. He is a step up from the mendacious buffoon and the bonkers half wit that preceeded him, but it could hardly be a step down from there. He has steadied things rather as a bull in a China shop can do, by falling asleep.

    I don't see any real understanding of how to mend the countries downward spiral, and his choice of cabinet does not inspire confidence. He seems a pleasant enough chap on a personal level, just completely over-promoted.
    Wait and see. I'm convinced he has a plan for this year.

    It might not shift the dial, and it might not work, but I think he has something.
    Cameron/May/Johnson had plans too. They could not implement them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839

    This is the wife of Clarence Thomas and yet he doesn't recuse himself.

    Not just morally wrong but actually contrary to US law. There is a very clear stature requiring Justices to recuse themselves in this situation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    DavidL said:

    This is the wife of Clarence Thomas and yet he doesn't recuse himself.

    Not just morally wrong but actually contrary to US law. There is a very clear stature requiring Justices to recuse themselves in this situation.
    Donald Trump's every action and those of his supporters show the same regard for the law that Russia Today has for reality.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes

    First.

    A first that isn't TSE? Can somebody check he's OK?
    I'm ok, unlike these Russians.

    Some 400 newly-mobilised Russian army recruits were killed by a strike on a facility in occupied eastern Ukraine over new year, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed.

    Santa packed close to 400 corpses of pigdogs in his sack,” the strategic communications branch of Ukraine’s armed forces wrote in a Telegram post late Sunday, adding that the strike was conducted on New Year’s Eve. The missiles hit the base in Makiivka, a city of around 300,000 people, some 15km east of Donetsk.

    The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged the attack, which it said was carried out by US Himars systems, but accused Ukraine of exaggerating the number of casualties. It claimed 63 had died so far, while a source in Russian-backed administration of the Donetsk region said “less than 100” had been killed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/400-russian-recruits-killed-in-donetsk-missile-strike-rdlr8sdml
    I admire the Ukrainians' determination and fortitude enormously - but that is really quite epically tasteless.
    I'm not condoning it but I understand why they would say such a thing.

    If you see your country getting levelled on a regular basis you can only have anger at the people causing it.
    This feels oddly like a watershed moment in the somewhat disapproving way that big media organisations are reporting it. I have no idea why - it seems like a legitimate military target to me. Yes, that statement is horrible, but it's still odd. On BBC radio the Russian casualty figure (63) was being given more credence than the Ukrainian figure. On Yahoo News (logging in to my personal email) the same. Israel seems on the turn. Biden has been more muted than us for a while. It will be interesting if the whole propaganda machinery does get thrown into reverse gear.
    The BBC website coverage is pretty consistent with its approach up to now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64142650

    It was always relatively more pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances than the Twittersphere but also always takes Russian claims with a pinch of salt. It quotes Girkin who is also claiming hundreds killed.

    I don’t think cold feet about supporting Ukraine is anything new. Since the very start of the war large chunks of the media have we been publicly shitting themselves about “escalation” and nuclear war, and the Americans have regularly poured cold water on Ukrainian demands for more offensive weaponry. The support is full voice in some areas, decidedly half hearted elsewhere.

    That’s why Putin’s ludicrous propaganda that the West is trying to destroy Russia when he’s actually being hoist by his own petard courtesy of a country he wants to wipe off the face of the map while the rest of us keep buying his oil and gas and fretting about off ramps is decidedly ironic.

    As for Netanyahu and his new far right coalition mates wanting to chum up with their ultra conservative Russian mates. Well thankfully that change is happening in Israel not the USA.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    I have a new pet.




    Meet my shalomander.

    Almost as good as my Koran-Utang but I’m not allowed to make up an image of it apparently.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes

    First.

    A first that isn't TSE? Can somebody check he's OK?
    I'm ok, unlike these Russians.

    Some 400 newly-mobilised Russian army recruits were killed by a strike on a facility in occupied eastern Ukraine over new year, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed.

    Santa packed close to 400 corpses of pigdogs in his sack,” the strategic communications branch of Ukraine’s armed forces wrote in a Telegram post late Sunday, adding that the strike was conducted on New Year’s Eve. The missiles hit the base in Makiivka, a city of around 300,000 people, some 15km east of Donetsk.

    The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged the attack, which it said was carried out by US Himars systems, but accused Ukraine of exaggerating the number of casualties. It claimed 63 had died so far, while a source in Russian-backed administration of the Donetsk region said “less than 100” had been killed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/400-russian-recruits-killed-in-donetsk-missile-strike-rdlr8sdml
    I admire the Ukrainians' determination and fortitude enormously - but that is really quite epically tasteless.
    With largely static carnage on the battlefield the Ukrainians have to do spectaculars to keep Western media engaged. They would have been better off doing it and saying nothing or very little like the recent occasion where they blew up that restaurant with Rogozin and Khotsenko in it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648

    I have a new pet.

    Meet my shalomander.

    Looks more like a geckoy vey.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited January 2023
    edit
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,455
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sunak needs to go COBRA on the NHS and crisis mode it for 6-9 months to clear the backlog - possibly longer. Nightingale it.

    I don't know how much this would cost (£10bn? £20bn? £30bn?) but I'd say doing that is probably more electorally crucial for him right now than banking up for 1p off income tax, which probably won't shift the dial that much.

    A lot will be down to luck- whether the economy starts to turn the corner or not, and thus help out HMT. Personally, I think it will.

    You need to add a zero. 60-90 months is realistically probably £100-£300 billion spent.

    It took 10 years and that sort of spending to get the waiting lists down from the numbers we see today to the level of service that we had in 2010.

    The limiting step is personnel (many of whom are quitting) and facilities more than cash. It takes time to train new people and build modern new facilities, as well as concentrated and disciplined management from the top. As ever, staff retention is the place to start.

    Perhaps Sunak simply has it down in the "too hard" column of problems, and impossible to make headway before the next election. He may well be right, and simply accept the festering NHS crisis has to continue.
    I think demonstrating intent and a plan for action, even if it hasn't yet born fruit, is politically crucial for him.

    FWIW, I think Sunak is motivated by doing the right thing for Britain long-term as much as he is improving the Tories electoral prospects. He knows re-election in 2 years is a very tall order.

    It's why I like him.
    I am not convinced. He is a step up from the mendacious buffoon and the bonkers half wit that preceeded him, but it could hardly be a step down from there. He has steadied things rather as a bull in a China shop can do, by falling asleep.

    I don't see any real understanding of how to mend the countries downward spiral, and his choice of cabinet does not inspire confidence. He seems a pleasant enough chap on a personal level, just completely over-promoted.
    Wait and see. I'm convinced he has a plan for this year.

    It might not shift the dial, and it might not work, but I think he has something.
    Sunak is clearly a huge improvement on his immediate two predecessors, maybe on his immediate four precessors. Nevertheless, I doubt that he has a plan, beyond trying to survive the year. He strikes me as clever and hard-working with good attention to detail and an ability to work well with other people, but nothing he has said or done suggests to me that he has a real plan. He is better at spin than substance (eat out to help out), he has poor judgement (supported Brexit, thought he could get away with his wife being a non-dom), and seems to be a bad judge of people (Williamson). I think he faces serious danger from both Johnson and Farage this year. He's inexperienced too, and it shows.
    Whether he has a plan isn’t the issue - the issue is that any bold plans he might have are undeliverable given the quarrelling rabble he has for a parliamentary party, and because his political capital account is barely in credit.
    Yes, that is the risk.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,404
    boulay said:

    I have a new pet.




    Meet my shalomander.

    Almost as good as my Koran-Utang but I’m not allowed to make up an image of it apparently.
    I've got a Dalai Llama.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    Why not have one mobile per household instead of everyone having one individually?
    Oh Andy, you are PB's best comedian.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Interesting IMO.

    "The figure on social authoritarianism might make you think older people are more attracted to ‘populist’ positions than younger people. But that’s not at all the case if we widen our set of ‘populist questions’. Below is a combination of answers to whether people agree (a) “There is one law for the rich and one for the poor” and (b) “Ordinary working people don’t get their fair share of the nation's wealth”. These ‘economic populist’ questions don’t show a great deal of variation - but to the extent they do, older people are less populist."

    https://benansell.substack.com/p/generation-games
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,455

    I have a new pet.




    Meet my shalomander.

    Do you like the music of Showaddywaddy?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited January 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    Why not have one mobile per household instead of everyone having one individually?
    How do I phone my wife to demand my tea whilst we are both on our way home in our respective cars and both my son's break down on the M4 at exactly the same time in different locations and need to call the RAC?

    Should we keep the single mobile at home just in case one of us need it urgently?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    edited January 2023

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    Why not have one mobile per household instead of everyone having one individually?
    How do I phone my wife to demand my tea whilst we are both on our way home in our respective cars and both my son's break down on the M4 at exactly the same time in different locations and need to call the RAC?

    Should we keep the single mobile at home just in case one of us need it urgently?
    To be fair it sounds like your wife should be at home in the kitchen ironing anyway, with access to the landline, if you are “demanding your tea”?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993

    I have a good feeling about this year.

    Things will get better.

    Started well for the maroon half of Edinburgh…😉
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    boulay said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    Why not have one mobile per household instead of everyone having one individually?
    How do I phone my wife to demand my tea whilst we are both on our way home in our respective cars and both my son's break down on the M4 at exactly the same time in different locations and need to call the RAC?

    Should we keep the single mobile at home just in case one of us need it urgently?
    To be fair it sounds like your wife should be at home in the kitchen ironing anyway, with access to the landline, if you are “demanding your tea”?
    She hasn't got home from a hard day's graft to keep me in the style I am accustomed to, and I will require feeding after a hard day in the office on PB.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This is the wife of Clarence Thomas and yet he doesn't recuse himself.

    It's rather scary isn't it?
    Indeed, yet 'Seer' Leon tells us the most dangerous thing in America is the woke.
    To me, it shows the frailty of the human mental condition.

    There is no evidence of fraud. Indeed, there is no real possibility that there was a giant, US-wide plot to tamper with votes to put Biden in power.

    People will believe what is most convenient to them. And it is easier to believe that there is a giant conspiracy, and that political opponents are not just wrong, but are evil too, than to admit that you lost an election.

    It is incredibly corrosive to civil society, and it is incredibly corrosive to democracy.
    Perhaps, but the solution isn't to chide people for believing it, the solution is to test the theory to destruction and let that scrutiny make the system stronger and more robust. Their system is hopeless. It is wide open to abuse, and if that abuse isn't happening already, the polarisation of politics makes it odds on that people will try more in the future.
    I agree that the solution is not to chide people for believing it, but I'm less convinced that "test the theory to destruction" works either.

    And one of the problems is that when we are testing hypothesis we are supposed to be looking for reasons why they are incorrect. That is propositions - like "the election was rigged" - are supposed to be falsifiable.

    This is the very heart of the scientific method: we are supposed to be looking for reasons why our theories are wrong. But (as any cursory glance at Twitter will show), people invested in a theory have no great interest in testable propositions, they are interested in proving that their theory is right.

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,963
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting IMO.

    "The figure on social authoritarianism might make you think older people are more attracted to ‘populist’ positions than younger people. But that’s not at all the case if we widen our set of ‘populist questions’. Below is a combination of answers to whether people agree (a) “There is one law for the rich and one for the poor” and (b) “Ordinary working people don’t get their fair share of the nation's wealth”. These ‘economic populist’ questions don’t show a great deal of variation - but to the extent they do, older people are less populist."

    https://benansell.substack.com/p/generation-games

    Interestingly too while most back new homes, both old and young oppose them near where they live and especially oppose new building in greenbelt areas.

    Seems NIMBYs are by no means just pensioners!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Of course it isn’t. Sadly there is a certain kind of person on twitter who thrives on scaremongering about covid, and there are far too many out there who lap it up. And at least on imagineer on here who needs a bit more lithium in his diet.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,790
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    I think you under estimate how core having a decent phone and contract is to youngsters. Perhaps it would be better for them to not have them, but they are addicted to them, and being separated from them is hell.
    I'm not sure about this, our kids have mostly had hand me down phones (we did get our 13yo son a refurbished iPhone for his birthday this year but our 16yo daughter is still fine with one of our old huawei phones; our 10yo daughter doesn't have a phone). They have monthly sim only packages that cost IIRC about £10/month each, which seem to be fine. My son occasionally runs out of data. Perhaps they are less status/fashion conscious than other kids - I think kids in London are generally less status-conscious than kids elsewhere for some reason, and sending them to a comprehensive school means they're not surrounded by spoilt rich kids with absurdly expensive tech.
    Part of being poor is having some simple pleasures. Smoking, takeaways, nights out, and phones too. Often their only Internet.

    People may think these are poor financial decisions, but at £1.50 a day on the never never it isn't bad value for several hours of social life per day.
    “You are bored, but you are not afraid. You think vaguely, ‘I shall be starving in a day or two–shocking, isn’t it?’ And then the mind wanders to other topics.”
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting IMO.

    "The figure on social authoritarianism might make you think older people are more attracted to ‘populist’ positions than younger people. But that’s not at all the case if we widen our set of ‘populist questions’. Below is a combination of answers to whether people agree (a) “There is one law for the rich and one for the poor” and (b) “Ordinary working people don’t get their fair share of the nation's wealth”. These ‘economic populist’ questions don’t show a great deal of variation - but to the extent they do, older people are less populist."

    https://benansell.substack.com/p/generation-games

    Interestingly too while most back new homes, both old and young oppose them near where they live and especially oppose new building in greenbelt areas.

    Seems NIMBYs are by no means just pensioners!
    Yes, the residents of Camden were the ones who blocked the connection of HS1 and HS2 so that people in parts of the country other than London could get on a train and travel straight through to continental destinations. And of course most people in Camden aren't very conservative or right-wing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    SKS fans: "SKS is lying about being a hard Brexit supporter".

    SKS fans: "SKS is an honest Politician".


    Dear SKS fans - It cant be both
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Is it wrong that I stopped paying attention to Covid variant news when they stopped giving them Greek letter identifiers?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,790

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    If you lived here you'd understand the issue better.

    Over the last few years most of the MNOs and MVNOs have put in a clause in the contracts that put in mid contract price increases of 3.9% plus March CPI.

    Now inflation has exploded, these mid contract price contracts are a ticking timebomb.

    If the government wanted an easy win they'd ban in contract price increases.

    Most of the broadband providers have followed similar patterns, which isn't surprising since there's a bit of cross ownership.

    So most of these contracts were taken out before the cost of living crisis started.
    You're not suggesting, I hope!, that the government could revisit remits based on the huge change in circumstances in inflation? Madness! Commie madness!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,455
    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    If BoZo is the next PM, it's all gone Pete Tong for everybody...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting IMO.

    "The figure on social authoritarianism might make you think older people are more attracted to ‘populist’ positions than younger people. But that’s not at all the case if we widen our set of ‘populist questions’. Below is a combination of answers to whether people agree (a) “There is one law for the rich and one for the poor” and (b) “Ordinary working people don’t get their fair share of the nation's wealth”. These ‘economic populist’ questions don’t show a great deal of variation - but to the extent they do, older people are less populist."

    https://benansell.substack.com/p/generation-games

    Interestingly too while most back new homes, both old and young oppose them near where they live and especially oppose new building in greenbelt areas.

    Seems NIMBYs are by no means just pensioners!
    That is certainly true. Younger people can be equally as silly about it.

    I'll bet most think greenbelt is just any green field for a start, since if they knew that 'not building on the greenbelt' would not in fact affect anywhere near them unless they live in specific areas, they might take a different view.
  • Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Is it wrong that I stopped paying attention to Covid variant news when they stopped giving them Greek letter identifiers?
    Very rhong, your approach is far tau flippant. You need a nu strategy.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    If BoZo is the next PM, it's all gone Pete Tong for everybody...
    Think that train has already departed!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    Er, did you read the article?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes

    First.

    A first that isn't TSE? Can somebody check he's OK?
    I'm ok, unlike these Russians.

    Some 400 newly-mobilised Russian army recruits were killed by a strike on a facility in occupied eastern Ukraine over new year, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed.

    Santa packed close to 400 corpses of pigdogs in his sack,” the strategic communications branch of Ukraine’s armed forces wrote in a Telegram post late Sunday, adding that the strike was conducted on New Year’s Eve. The missiles hit the base in Makiivka, a city of around 300,000 people, some 15km east of Donetsk.

    The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged the attack, which it said was carried out by US Himars systems, but accused Ukraine of exaggerating the number of casualties. It claimed 63 had died so far, while a source in Russian-backed administration of the Donetsk region said “less than 100” had been killed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/400-russian-recruits-killed-in-donetsk-missile-strike-rdlr8sdml
    I admire the Ukrainians' determination and fortitude enormously - but that is really quite epically tasteless.
    I'm not condoning it but I understand why they would say such a thing.

    If you see your country getting levelled on a regular basis you can only have anger at the people causing it.
    This feels oddly like a watershed moment in the somewhat disapproving way that big media organisations are reporting it. I have no idea why - it seems like a legitimate military target to me. Yes, that statement is horrible, but it's still odd. On BBC radio the Russian casualty figure (63) was being given more credence than the Ukrainian figure. On Yahoo News (logging in to my personal email) the same. Israel seems on the turn. Biden has been more muted than us for a while. It will be interesting if the whole propaganda machinery does get thrown into reverse gear.
    The BBC website coverage is pretty consistent with its approach up to now.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64142650

    It was always relatively more pessimistic about Ukraine’s chances than the Twittersphere but also always takes Russian claims with a pinch of salt. It quotes Girkin who is also claiming hundreds killed.

    I don’t think cold feet about supporting Ukraine is anything new. Since the very start of the war large chunks of the media have we been publicly shitting themselves about “escalation” and nuclear war, and the Americans have regularly poured cold water on Ukrainian demands for more offensive weaponry. The support is full voice in some areas, decidedly half hearted elsewhere.

    That’s why Putin’s ludicrous propaganda that the West is trying to destroy Russia when he’s actually being hoist by his own petard courtesy of a country he wants to wipe off the face of the map while the rest of us keep buying his oil and gas and fretting about off ramps is decidedly ironic.

    As for Netanyahu and his new far right coalition mates wanting to chum up with their ultra conservative Russian mates. Well thankfully that change is happening in Israel not the USA.
    I've been surprised western support has held up as well as it has, to be honest, but its certainly true that the BBC has for a long time, probably from the start, been keen to stress claims from either side are not independently verified, and whilst not making a big deal of it acknowledging the Ukrainians will naturally talk up their own accounts.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Is it wrong that I stopped paying attention to Covid variant news when they stopped giving them Greek letter identifiers?
    Very rhong, your approach is far tau flippant. You need a nu strategy.
    I couldn't give one iota. But I'm feeling beta for it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,455

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    Er, did you read the article?
    Yes. Boris had the numbers (100+ MPs) last October, much to my astonishment.

    If it really goes badly for Sunak then I don't see who else comes close and his numbers would only grow.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    DavidL said:

    This is the wife of Clarence Thomas and yet he doesn't recuse himself.

    Not just morally wrong but actually contrary to US law. There is a very clear stature requiring Justices to recuse themselves in this situation.
    And yet politicians in robes continue to act like politicians and refuse, what a surprise.

    What is interesting, and troubling, about many of this type of communication revelations, is that it shows that it is not simply a case that various top Republicans claim to buy into the Trump stuff because they have to. They actually do buy into it.

    Those that obviously don't buy it to that extent still find a way to excuse it, like McConnell did during the second impeachment.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    I've been told there is a nuclear option in the Tory party from stopping Boris Johnson coming back.

    Enough Tory MPs are prepared to resign the whip and VONC the government if it looks like Boris Johnson will become PM.

    It's the one route to a 2023 GE.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,455
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    If BoZo is the next PM, it's all gone Pete Tong for everybody...
    I'm interested in the betting.
  • Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Is it wrong that I stopped paying attention to Covid variant news when they stopped giving them Greek letter identifiers?
    Very rhong, your approach is far tau flippant. You need a nu strategy.
    I couldn't give one iota. But I'm feeling beta for it.
    I don't think I can kappa post like that
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    Er, did you read the article?
    Yes. Boris had the numbers (100+ MPs) last October, much to my astonishment.

    If it really goes badly for Sunak then I don't see who else comes close and his numbers would only grow.
    Fair point. I think Sunak will cling on to the GE though whatever.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Is it wrong that I stopped paying attention to Covid variant news when they stopped giving them Greek letter identifiers?
    Very rhong, your approach is far tau flippant. You need a nu strategy.
    I couldn't give one iota. But I'm feeling beta for it.
    I don't think I can kappa post like that
    You could say something about it being the preserve of gammans.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    If BoZo is the next PM, it's all gone Pete Tong for everybody...
    Think that train has already departed!
    Nice to think that there's a train that's departed somewhere.
    #blomingunionsbloominggovernment
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    chat gbt answer ! humans still have a chance!

    if my current age is 30 ,what was my age when i was 10 years old?


    If your current age is 30 and you were 10 years old in the past, that means you were 20 years old at the time.

    Not going to beat Ken Jennings at Jeopardy any time soon, is it?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Is it wrong that I stopped paying attention to Covid variant news when they stopped giving them Greek letter identifiers?
    Very rhong, your approach is far tau flippant. You need a nu strategy.
    I couldn't give one iota. But I'm feeling beta for it.
    I don't think I can kappa post like that
    You could say something about it being the preserve of gammans.
    He would do given alpha chance.
  • ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Is it wrong that I stopped paying attention to Covid variant news when they stopped giving them Greek letter identifiers?
    Very rhong, your approach is far tau flippant. You need a nu strategy.
    I couldn't give one iota. But I'm feeling beta for it.
    I don't think I can kappa post like that
    You could say something about it being the preserve of gammans.
    Only 23 letters available. Anyone joining the game at this stage has been delta poor hand.

    But no doubt you will make me an eta of my words.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes

    First.

    A first that isn't TSE? Can somebody check he's OK?
    I'm ok, unlike these Russians.

    Some 400 newly-mobilised Russian army recruits were killed by a strike on a facility in occupied eastern Ukraine over new year, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed.

    “Santa packed close to 400 corpses of pigdogs in his sack,” the strategic communications branch of Ukraine’s armed forces wrote in a Telegram post late Sunday, adding that the strike was conducted on New Year’s Eve. The missiles hit the base in Makiivka, a city of around 300,000 people, some 15km east of Donetsk.

    The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged the attack, which it said was carried out by US Himars systems, but accused Ukraine of exaggerating the number of casualties. It claimed 63 had died so far, while a source in Russian-backed administration of the Donetsk region said “less than 100” had been killed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/400-russian-recruits-killed-in-donetsk-missile-strike-rdlr8sdml
    It’s quite easy to crow and enjoy this sort of thing but these guys aren’t likely to be ideologues, Wagner types, Russian army lifers. Just normal people who didn’t really have a choice about it.

    If a fine upstanding chap such as yourself had been conscripted into the Sheffield pals during WW1 and wiped out your parents and family would have lost a son, brother, your shoe dealer would have lost its biggest customer and your friends lost their cockiest associate.

    It’s just fucking sad anyone is dying for this Ukraine situation but revelling from the safety of the UK is a bit grim.
    I'm not revelling in it.
    Fair enough. It just makes me angry that the architects of this are safe and the poor buggers ripped apart by ball bearings have no say and probably just wanted to spend Russian Christmas ahead with a few bottles of vodka and get home.
    One of the most striking things about this conflict is it has shown just what physical cowards the Russian leaders are.

    I don't believe any of them have been within striking distance of the front line at all.

    That's probably not going to look too good for them when the dust settles even if they're still in power.

    The contrast with Zelensky who has been very visibly close to his soldiers throughout is both marked and profoundly embarrassing for a Russian leadership that pretends to military prowess.
    One of the pieces I keep on meaning to write is wondering what will happen to a political commissar or equivalent fighting in Ukraine like Nikita Khrushchev.

    What would they learn about the SMO?
    One thing that strikes me is how poorly functioning the whole Command and Control structure of the Russian Army is. The unit of operations is the Battalion Tactical group, and there are failures even at that level, which should have a coordinated combined arms approach.

    There is a mess of units that do not co-operate between military districts, and the Chechens, Wagers, Rsguardia and regular military do not have unified command, with even the regular army split between military districts. This results in ineffective piecemeal attacks at ground level with high casualties because of failure to co-ordinate.

    I am not sure that the Ukranians have a vastly better command structure, but it does seem to function at operational and strategic level, no doubt helped by Western Intelligence.
    I'll say this though - the Russian forces have seemingly been capable enough to avoid disintegration and disorganised collapse despite hopeful rumour of the opposite from time to time. Whether that's because of being able to throw people at the problem, or Ukraine just not having the ability to capitalise, IDK, but so far the retreats by and large seem to have been managed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    Why not have one mobile per household instead of everyone having one individually?
    Oh Andy, you are PB's best comedian.
    Let's go further - why can't people just have one bed per household? Save on bedding, heating, several things.
  • kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    Why not have one mobile per household instead of everyone having one individually?
    Oh Andy, you are PB's best comedian.
    Let's go further - why can't people just have one bed per household? Save on bedding, heating, several things.
    self defeating as it would result in a population explosion
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    Er, did you read the article?
    Yes. Boris had the numbers (100+ MPs) last October, much to my astonishment.

    If it really goes badly for Sunak then I don't see who else comes close and his numbers would only grow.
    Fair point. I think Sunak will cling on to the GE though whatever.
    I find it hard to believe anyone else wants the gig. Boris has surprised many people in the past when written off, but if he thought he could turn things around he would have gone for it already. That he didn't, and many of his supporters have gleefully been predicting the punishment of the gods on the Tories as a result of the sin of ousting him, suggests he knows not to bother.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Is it wrong that I stopped paying attention to Covid variant news when they stopped giving them Greek letter identifiers?
    Very rhong, your approach is far tau flippant. You need a nu strategy.
    I couldn't give one iota. But I'm feeling beta for it.
    I don't think I can kappa post like that
    You could say something about it being the preserve of gammans.
    There is clearly something to be said for old flabby, pink faced men past their prime, just ask Catherine Zeta Jones.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    Why not have one mobile per household instead of everyone having one individually?
    Oh Andy, you are PB's best comedian.
    Let's go further - why can't people just have one bed per household? Save on bedding, heating, several things.
    self defeating as it would result in a population explosion
    Not if the kids get the middle of the bed with parents on the edges.
  • re chat gbt , there are stories of people getting dates by sending a chat gbt love poem to their targets - Trouble is that when this gets more widely known then what hope is there for the true romantic writer to woo a damsel when she will just think he has used chat gbt
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    chat gbt answer ! humans still have a chance!

    if my current age is 30 ,what was my age when i was 10 years old?


    If your current age is 30 and you were 10 years old in the past, that means you were 20 years old at the time.

    Maths not it's strong point.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes

    First.

    A first that isn't TSE? Can somebody check he's OK?
    I'm ok, unlike these Russians.

    Some 400 newly-mobilised Russian army recruits were killed by a strike on a facility in occupied eastern Ukraine over new year, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed.

    “Santa packed close to 400 corpses of pigdogs in his sack,” the strategic communications branch of Ukraine’s armed forces wrote in a Telegram post late Sunday, adding that the strike was conducted on New Year’s Eve. The missiles hit the base in Makiivka, a city of around 300,000 people, some 15km east of Donetsk.

    The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged the attack, which it said was carried out by US Himars systems, but accused Ukraine of exaggerating the number of casualties. It claimed 63 had died so far, while a source in Russian-backed administration of the Donetsk region said “less than 100” had been killed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/400-russian-recruits-killed-in-donetsk-missile-strike-rdlr8sdml
    It’s quite easy to crow and enjoy this sort of thing but these guys aren’t likely to be ideologues, Wagner types, Russian army lifers. Just normal people who didn’t really have a choice about it.

    If a fine upstanding chap such as yourself had been conscripted into the Sheffield pals during WW1 and wiped out your parents and family would have lost a son, brother, your shoe dealer would have lost its biggest customer and your friends lost their cockiest associate.

    It’s just fucking sad anyone is dying for this Ukraine situation but revelling from the safety of the UK is a bit grim.
    I'm not revelling in it.
    Fair enough. It just makes me angry that the architects of this are safe and the poor buggers ripped apart by ball bearings have no say and probably just wanted to spend Russian Christmas ahead with a few bottles of vodka and get home.
    One of the most striking things about this conflict is it has shown just what physical cowards the Russian leaders are.

    I don't believe any of them have been within striking distance of the front line at all.

    That's probably not going to look too good for them when the dust settles even if they're still in power.

    The contrast with Zelensky who has been very visibly close to his soldiers throughout is both marked and profoundly embarrassing for a Russian leadership that pretends to military prowess.
    Trampoline Boy lost his undercarriage at his own birthday party…

    https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/ztsbom/rogozin_was_wounded_in_the_groin_and_may_lose_his/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    re chat gbt , there are stories of people getting dates by sending a chat gbt love poem to their targets - Trouble is that when this gets more widely known then what hope is there for the true romantic writer to woo a damsel when she will just think he has used chat gbt

    Roses are red
    Violets are blue
    I used an AI to write this
    Error error does not compute.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    ydoethur said:

    Taz said:

    A thread on COVID variant XBB1 from a virologist.

    It’s not the end of days.

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1609959172803641348?s=61&t=3maJSYA9lRt9IwEC_cSTcA

    Is it wrong that I stopped paying attention to Covid variant news when they stopped giving them Greek letter identifiers?
    Very rhong, your approach is far tau flippant. You need a nu strategy.
    I couldn't give one iota. But I'm feeling beta for it.
    I don't think I can kappa post like that
    You could say something about it being the preserve of gammans.
    Only 23 letters available. Anyone joining the game at this stage has been delta poor hand.

    But no doubt you will make me an eta of my words.
    I think you're pi-eyed if you can't see further opportunities.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    The phone bill is £45 a month, or the repayment on a £1k handset makes it that much? Don’t kids of struggling families have hand-me-down phones rather than new ones?

    I was in the UK last month and got a PAYG SIM for £15, inc 10GB data and a pile of calls, from a petrol station!
    But with PAYG you don't get all the features like 5G, VOLTE, or WiFi calling.
    Which people on struggling incomes are buying for their kids?
    I think you under estimate how core having a decent phone and contract is to youngsters. Perhaps it would be better for them to not have them, but they are addicted to them, and being separated from them is hell.
    Indeed - the effective rates on the monthly phone HP deals are horrific though

    https://www.giffgaff.com/sim-only-deals is a good view of what the connection alone costs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    Why not have one mobile per household instead of everyone having one individually?
    Oh Andy, you are PB's best comedian.
    Let's go further - why can't people just have one bed per household? Save on bedding, heating, several things.
    self defeating as it would result in a population explosion
    Not if the kids get the middle of the bed with parents on the edges.
    It still might, but the babies would all have six fingers and three legs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    I pay £10 a month, and own my phone. What am I doing wrong?
    You’re not buying a mobile by paying through the nose on a 24 month locked in contract…
  • oh god i have seen the future

    chat gbt user - can you replicate a discussion on a political betting forum that deviates from its stated task quite a lot and veers into insults , paranoia , grand prix talk , talking a lot about you , brexit and AV(note not AI) .

    chat gbt - It is not appropriate for me to insult anyone as negative feelings can be felt from an insult----

    chat gbt user - yeah yeah but go on please !!

    chat gbt - ok then --rattles of this forum dialogue in a minute

    PB is dead!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,455

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    Er, did you read the article?
    Yes. Boris had the numbers (100+ MPs) last October, much to my astonishment.

    If it really goes badly for Sunak then I don't see who else comes close and his numbers would only grow.
    Fair point. I think Sunak will cling on to the GE though whatever.
    There's a symbiotic relationship.

    The more appalling the Tory polling position gets the more Starmer's odds may shorten even though they should probably lengthen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    oh god i have seen the future

    chat gbt user - can you replicate a discussion on a political betting forum that deviates from its stated task quite a lot and veers into insults , paranoia , grand prix talk , talking a lot about you , brexit and AV(note not AI) .

    "Quite a lot"?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,659
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes

    First.

    A first that isn't TSE? Can somebody check he's OK?
    I'm ok, unlike these Russians.

    Some 400 newly-mobilised Russian army recruits were killed by a strike on a facility in occupied eastern Ukraine over new year, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed.

    “Santa packed close to 400 corpses of pigdogs in his sack,” the strategic communications branch of Ukraine’s armed forces wrote in a Telegram post late Sunday, adding that the strike was conducted on New Year’s Eve. The missiles hit the base in Makiivka, a city of around 300,000 people, some 15km east of Donetsk.

    The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged the attack, which it said was carried out by US Himars systems, but accused Ukraine of exaggerating the number of casualties. It claimed 63 had died so far, while a source in Russian-backed administration of the Donetsk region said “less than 100” had been killed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/400-russian-recruits-killed-in-donetsk-missile-strike-rdlr8sdml
    It’s quite easy to crow and enjoy this sort of thing but these guys aren’t likely to be ideologues, Wagner types, Russian army lifers. Just normal people who didn’t really have a choice about it.

    If a fine upstanding chap such as yourself had been conscripted into the Sheffield pals during WW1 and wiped out your parents and family would have lost a son, brother, your shoe dealer would have lost its biggest customer and your friends lost their cockiest associate.

    It’s just fucking sad anyone is dying for this Ukraine situation but revelling from the safety of the UK is a bit grim.
    I'm not revelling in it.
    Fair enough. It just makes me angry that the architects of this are safe and the poor buggers ripped apart by ball bearings have no say and probably just wanted to spend Russian Christmas ahead with a few bottles of vodka and get home.
    One of the most striking things about this conflict is it has shown just what physical cowards the Russian leaders are.

    I don't believe any of them have been within striking distance of the front line at all.

    That's probably not going to look too good for them when the dust settles even if they're still in power.

    The contrast with Zelensky who has been very visibly close to his soldiers throughout is both marked and profoundly embarrassing for a Russian leadership that pretends to military prowess.
    One of the pieces I keep on meaning to write is wondering what will happen to a political commissar or equivalent fighting in Ukraine like Nikita Khrushchev.

    What would they learn about the SMO?
    One thing that strikes me is how poorly functioning the whole Command and Control structure of the Russian Army is. The unit of operations is the Battalion Tactical group, and there are failures even at that level, which should have a coordinated combined arms approach.

    There is a mess of units that do not co-operate between military districts, and the Chechens, Wagers, Rsguardia and regular military do not have unified command, with even the regular army split between military districts. This results in ineffective piecemeal attacks at ground level with high casualties because of failure to co-ordinate.

    I am not sure that the Ukranians have a vastly better command structure, but it does seem to function at operational and strategic level, no doubt helped by Western Intelligence.
    I'll say this though - the Russian forces have seemingly been capable enough to avoid disintegration and disorganised collapse despite hopeful rumour of the opposite from time to time. Whether that's because of being able to throw people at the problem, or Ukraine just not having the ability to capitalise, IDK, but so far the retreats by and large seem to have been managed.
    I agree. By and large they have retreated in reasonably good order, avoiding mass surrenders.

    Not convinced that is a war winning strategy .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    the first time I watched The Force Awakens I thought it was naff how the first order was just a rip-off of the empire, down to building a death star etc. but actually it makes total sense that 30 years later a bunch of nostalgists would be cargo-culting 'the last time we won'
    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1610017102378811393
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If inflation falls to 3% by the middle of the year, (as forecast by some), it'll solve a lot of the government's problems, to state the obvious.

    It seems certain to start dropping by some degree in the next few months as the large increases of last spring start to drop out.
    Even if that happen most people will see their mobile and BB/landline costs go up by somewhere around 15%.
    Most people don’t have the mobile bills you do, and seeing it go up from £10 to £11.50 a month isn’t really going to change their voting intention!
    Average monthly mobile bill in the UK is around £45 per month.

    Now imagine you've got 3 kids, as well as your own mobile, you're looking at an extra £30 a month on mobiles.

    Depending on your BB package, you're looking at another £10 a month there.

    When people are struggling with a choice of heating or eating, this is another kicker.
    I pay £10 a month, and own my phone. What am I doing wrong?
    You’re not buying a mobile by paying through the nose on a 24 month locked in contract…
    No, because (a) I already own one, and (b) it cost about £120 two or more years ago.
    It’s not the latest, but it does everything it needs to.
  • re chat gbt , there are stories of people getting dates by sending a chat gbt love poem to their targets - Trouble is that when this gets more widely known then what hope is there for the true romantic writer to woo a damsel when she will just think he has used chat gbt

    Roses are red
    Violets are blue
    I used an AI to write this
    Error error does not compute.
    Roses are red
    Violets are blue
    I used an AI to write this
    it is not appropriate for me to write poems to seduce women as this may be considered male centric and cause hurt to women and those that identify as women and non-binary
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Scott_xP said:

    the first time I watched The Force Awakens I thought it was naff how the first order was just a rip-off of the empire, down to building a death star etc. but actually it makes total sense that 30 years later a bunch of nostalgists would be cargo-culting 'the last time we won'
    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1610017102378811393

    I always thought that was part of the point. The entire movie was nostalgia driven, but the Hux speech in particular just screamed 'We are Empire wannabes' in a pathetic rather than intimidating way.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes

    First.

    A first that isn't TSE? Can somebody check he's OK?
    I'm ok, unlike these Russians.

    Some 400 newly-mobilised Russian army recruits were killed by a strike on a facility in occupied eastern Ukraine over new year, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed.

    “Santa packed close to 400 corpses of pigdogs in his sack,” the strategic communications branch of Ukraine’s armed forces wrote in a Telegram post late Sunday, adding that the strike was conducted on New Year’s Eve. The missiles hit the base in Makiivka, a city of around 300,000 people, some 15km east of Donetsk.

    The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged the attack, which it said was carried out by US Himars systems, but accused Ukraine of exaggerating the number of casualties. It claimed 63 had died so far, while a source in Russian-backed administration of the Donetsk region said “less than 100” had been killed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/400-russian-recruits-killed-in-donetsk-missile-strike-rdlr8sdml
    I know it’s not nice to cheer death, but when the idiots are so stupid as to have hundreds of soldiers barracked in the same building as a massive arms store, in territory that your enemy considers to be their own…
    Except, if the story is as told, the idiots weren't the ones who died.
    During WWII some got a bit precious at the SAS tactic of waiting until the Germans and Italians was sat down in the mess hall for dinner, before popping in for a bit of light machine gunning. Paddy Mayne was a noted exponent of waiting for the desert course.

    Some high ranking RAF officers nixed a plan to massacre German ground crew in their barracks/transport buses, during the Battle of Britain, IIRC.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    Er, did you read the article?
    Yes. Boris had the numbers (100+ MPs) last October, much to my astonishment.

    If it really goes badly for Sunak then I don't see who else comes close and his numbers would only grow.
    Fair point. I think Sunak will cling on to the GE though whatever.
    There's a symbiotic relationship.

    The more appalling the Tory polling position gets the more Starmer's odds may shorten even though they should probably lengthen.
    Changing leader is very 2022. Sunak will fight the next election
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    the first time I watched The Force Awakens I thought it was naff how the first order was just a rip-off of the empire, down to building a death star etc. but actually it makes total sense that 30 years later a bunch of nostalgists would be cargo-culting 'the last time we won'
    https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1610017102378811393

    I always thought that was part of the point. The entire movie was nostalgia driven, but the Hux speech in particular just screamed 'We are Empire wannabes' in a pathetic rather than intimidating way.
    Mind you, I was moderately impressed at the way that you could almost see Andy Serkis (as Snoke) thinking “yeah, even if they’ve blown up my Death Star, it has done more than the other 2, so that’s a win.”
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    I was using Chat GPT today, to see if I could use .format in Python to convert datetime objects:

    Yes, you can use the .format() method to format dates and datetime objects as strings. To do this, you need to use a format string that includes codes for the elements you want to include in the formatted date, such as the day, month, and year.

    Here's an example of how you can use the .format() method to format a date as a string:

    Copy code
    from datetime import date

    # Create a date object
    d = date(2022, 1, 1)

    # Use the .format() method to format the date as a string
    formatted_date = d.strftime('%B %d, %Y')

    print(formatted_date) # Output: January 01, 2022


    Can any Python users deduce the small issue with the answer?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    I've been told there is a nuclear option in the Tory party from stopping Boris Johnson coming back.

    Enough Tory MPs are prepared to resign the whip and VONC the government if it looks like Boris Johnson will become PM.

    It's the one route to a 2023 GE.
    The same reason that stopped him running with the 100 nominations last time, will be in play next time.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,455

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    Er, did you read the article?
    Yes. Boris had the numbers (100+ MPs) last October, much to my astonishment.

    If it really goes badly for Sunak then I don't see who else comes close and his numbers would only grow.
    Fair point. I think Sunak will cling on to the GE though whatever.
    There's a symbiotic relationship.

    The more appalling the Tory polling position gets the more Starmer's odds may shorten even though they should probably lengthen.
    Changing leader is very 2022. Sunak will fight the next election
    It's a good value loser.

    His odds are currently 10/1 as next PM when they should be 6/1 or 7/1, IMHO.

    DYOR.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,837
    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes

    First.

    A first that isn't TSE? Can somebody check he's OK?
    I'm ok, unlike these Russians.

    Some 400 newly-mobilised Russian army recruits were killed by a strike on a facility in occupied eastern Ukraine over new year, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed.

    Santa packed close to 400 corpses of pigdogs in his sack,” the strategic communications branch of Ukraine’s armed forces wrote in a Telegram post late Sunday, adding that the strike was conducted on New Year’s Eve. The missiles hit the base in Makiivka, a city of around 300,000 people, some 15km east of Donetsk.

    The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged the attack, which it said was carried out by US Himars systems, but accused Ukraine of exaggerating the number of casualties. It claimed 63 had died so far, while a source in Russian-backed administration of the Donetsk region said “less than 100” had been killed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/400-russian-recruits-killed-in-donetsk-missile-strike-rdlr8sdml
    I admire the Ukrainians' determination and fortitude enormously - but that is really quite epically tasteless.
    With largely static carnage on the battlefield the Ukrainians have to do spectaculars to keep Western media engaged. They would have been better off doing it and saying nothing or very little like the recent occasion where they blew up that restaurant with Rogozin and Khotsenko in it.
    I see no reason why they should keep quiet about it. The way they report it is a different matter. Not feeling bitter are we?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    rcs1000 said:

    I was using Chat GPT today, to see if I could use .format in Python to convert datetime objects:

    Yes, you can use the .format() method to format dates and datetime objects as strings. To do this, you need to use a format string that includes codes for the elements you want to include in the formatted date, such as the day, month, and year.

    Here's an example of how you can use the .format() method to format a date as a string:

    Copy code
    from datetime import date

    # Create a date object
    d = date(2022, 1, 1)

    # Use the .format() method to format the date as a string
    formatted_date = d.strftime('%B %d, %Y')

    print(formatted_date) # Output: January 01, 2022


    Can any Python users deduce the small issue with the answer?

    Not a Python Dev, but it doesn’t seem to use the format() function in the answer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    SKS fans: "SKS is lying about being a hard Brexit supporter".

    SKS fans: "SKS is an honest Politician".


    Dear SKS fans - It cant be both

    Has he said he's a hard Brexiteer? My understanding is we are lumbered with Brexit- and trying to unravel that particular sh*tshow by Labour is unrealistic both politically and practically.

    I have no doubt the man is a useless, lying sack of ****. Nonetheless that worked out fine for your hero Boris Johnson back in 2019.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Dura_Ace said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    Yes

    First.

    A first that isn't TSE? Can somebody check he's OK?
    I'm ok, unlike these Russians.

    Some 400 newly-mobilised Russian army recruits were killed by a strike on a facility in occupied eastern Ukraine over new year, the Ukrainian armed forces have claimed.

    Santa packed close to 400 corpses of pigdogs in his sack,” the strategic communications branch of Ukraine’s armed forces wrote in a Telegram post late Sunday, adding that the strike was conducted on New Year’s Eve. The missiles hit the base in Makiivka, a city of around 300,000 people, some 15km east of Donetsk.

    The Russian Ministry of Defence acknowledged the attack, which it said was carried out by US Himars systems, but accused Ukraine of exaggerating the number of casualties. It claimed 63 had died so far, while a source in Russian-backed administration of the Donetsk region said “less than 100” had been killed.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/400-russian-recruits-killed-in-donetsk-missile-strike-rdlr8sdml
    I admire the Ukrainians' determination and fortitude enormously - but that is really quite epically tasteless.
    With largely static carnage on the battlefield the Ukrainians have to do spectaculars to keep Western media engaged. They would have been better off doing it and saying nothing or very little like the recent occasion where they blew up that restaurant with Rogozin and Khotsenko in it.
    I see no reason why they should keep quiet about it. The way they report it is a different matter. Not feeling bitter are we?
    For some reason I am reminded of Orwell writing about some “pacifists” (their description ) he encountered during the war. Apparently they found reports of Allied victories “bellicose”, “war mongering” and “upsetting”. They seemed to find Axis victories much less annoying, somehow.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Don't get sick, folks.


    Severe warnings from health officials about state of the NHS - dealing with record vacancies (133k), burnt out workforce, now also a flu outbreak (+ Covid). 6 health trusts have declared a critical incident in England, head of Society for Acute Medicine says whole or NHS should. https://twitter.com/M_Veselinovic/status/1610023105354661892/video/1
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931

    Scott_xP said:
    Astonishing value as next PM if it all goes Pete Tong for Sunak.

    I'm on.
    Er, did you read the article?
    Yes. Boris had the numbers (100+ MPs) last October, much to my astonishment.

    If it really goes badly for Sunak then I don't see who else comes close and his numbers would only grow.
    Fair point. I think Sunak will cling on to the GE though whatever.
    There's a symbiotic relationship.

    The more appalling the Tory polling position gets the more Starmer's odds may shorten even though they should probably lengthen.
    Changing leader is very 2022. Sunak will fight the next election
    Sunak is young enough to lose less badly than expected, after damage limitation, and come back in a few years time after the inevitable bloodletting following the election defeat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,963
    Stonehouse on ITV1 now
This discussion has been closed.