One thing that will continue to damage the tory party over the next 18 months are stories like this one - even if you ignore the last 2 sentences - deaths due to ambulances failing to arrive for 3+ hours do the current Government no favours as at.
Minnie Rahman @minnierahman My dad died on Christmas Eve. He waited for an ambulance for 3 hours before it was too late. He was only 58. I’ve fought my whole life to stop this kind of thing from happening. I admit defeat. It’s over. We’ve lost. The Tories have what they wanted.
It's no consolation to anyone but these problems seem to be happening everywhere. According to the French health union, 150 people died in December while waiting up to 8 hours on stretchers for treatment.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
What is left of Cameron's legacy?
Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.
Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
Having dealt with him in a professional capacity prior to his political career, he was reasonably nice but he was a blagger. He was caught out often because he was dealing with people who weren't going to be robbed off with waffly answers (and he couldn't give them due to regulatory rules).
In many ways, he's like Johnson, more comfortable with bigger picture stuff, definitely less so on detail and not so entertaining.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
What is left of Cameron's legacy?
Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.
Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
Having dealt with him in a professional capacity prior to his political career, he was reasonably nice but he was a blagger. He was caught out often because he was dealing with people who weren't going to be robbed off with waffly answers (and he couldn't give them due to regulatory rules).
In many ways, he's like Johnson, more comfortable with bigger picture stuff, definitely less so on detail and not so entertaining.
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
The migration issue won't go away. However the decline in home ownership and rising costs of health pensions and social care without alternative funding models are making the current party obsolescent. I tend to agree that the future of the party should be more Heath/Thatcher than McMillan/Home but that raises a few problems. What exactly is to be done about the Europe question? It will remain a running sore unless you want to have a single issue Brexit party. And Thatcher was a radical who might have won at a time of over(?) mighty unions and with lots of public goods to sell off but probably isn't much off a model for now either.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
Indeed, unlike Blair in 1997 however Starmer won’t have a growing economy to help him when he comes in. He will face high inflation and strikes and a situation more like the 1970s and if he does not get a grip on it soon there will soon be swingback to the Tory opposition
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
I really doubt the Conservatives' position is that dire and a lot of that has to do with today's Labour party.
Back in the mid-90s, the moth-eared Tory party was not only damaged by its own actions but also comparisons with what seemed like a fresh-faced Labour party with new ideas. The U.K. is one of those countries where protest is not enough - you need to have something positive to vote for the alternative (I would put Italy, for example, in the opposite camp).
Today's Labour party just doesn't have that fizz. Starmer is dull and he is winning at the moment just by being not the Tories. That's a dangerous position to be in - your lead depends on your opponent. It doesn't seem like Labour will rise forth with a detailed programme any time soon (and @NickPalmer's comment the other day suggests that is very much a deliberate strategy).
My prediction is Labour's lead will start to collapse very quickly as the election date gets closer. It doesn't mean SKS won't be the next PM but the idea the Tories are going to be down to <100 seats is very very unlikely.
Andrew Bridgen going full on now against the covid vax
By suppressing the evidence of the harms caused by the mRNA vaccines the MSM have sealed their own fate. The public will never believe anything from them again. It’s the end of these mouthpieces of big Pharma and the super wealthy elite. This is the end of the controlled media.
Oh dear. Is he positioning to lead the British Alt Right? There is an opportunity, I suppose.
I'm open to the idea that negative stories about the effects of the vaccines may have been suppressed by the mainstream media. The 'greater good' demanding everyone get the vaccine and the danger of anti vax loons being two reasons.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
Indeed, unlike Blair in 1997 however Starmer won’t have a growing economy to help him when he comes in. He will face high inflation and strikes and a situation more like the 1970s and if he does not get a grip on it soon there will soon be swingback to the Tory opposition
There's no point the Conservatives re-hashing what they did in Government as their 2029/2030 manifesto. There will need to be some new thinking and probably some new faces to represent a change (of personnel if not philosophy) from what went before.
Andrew Bridgen going full on now against the covid vax
By suppressing the evidence of the harms caused by the mRNA vaccines the MSM have sealed their own fate. The public will never believe anything from them again. It’s the end of these mouthpieces of big Pharma and the super wealthy elite. This is the end of the controlled media.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
Nigel Kennedy thinks Charles is more socialist than Starmer
On balance I think both those two leading opinions are right. I narrowly think an election will happen in 2023, in which case Sunak is toast. I know the mechanisms are not in place in Parliament YET for a 2023 election but I still think it may happen.
And if it doesn't, it will be no later than October 2024 with Spring 2024 the more likely.
The Conservatives will be even more slaughtered, including by the media, if they tried to drag this into early 2025.
Why would an election happen in 2023?
Two things I've learned study studying politics are:
1. Never underestimate the power of the people
2. Always expect the unexpected. Especially these days. If I had sat with you 4 years ago and told you all the things which were about to happen, you'd have put me in a straightjacket and taken me to one of the last remaining Cuckoo Nest padded cells.
There are a number of ways in which a 2023 election might happen but in my view the most likely ones do NOT presuppose Sunak/Tories being in charge of events. The power of the people is one. The power of the media is another. The power of the Nigel Farage Brexit wing is yet one more.
For instance, if you're a red wall tory MP and you know you're going to lose under Sunak, how tempting might it be to go full tonto with Farage: all out to win? 40 defections, a VONC, going for broke.
Nothing, nothing, would surprise me given what we have seen.
I think we have a tendency, still, to bet according to past form but that's been a piss poor basis of late.
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
Indeed, unlike Blair in 1997 however Starmer won’t have a growing economy to help him when he comes in. He will face high inflation and strikes and a situation more like the 1970s and if he does not get a grip on it soon there will soon be swingback to the Tory opposition
PM Starmer already in trouble, and needs to get a grip soon? Sounds like you've already conceded defeat.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
What is left of Cameron's legacy?
Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.
Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
Having dealt with him in a professional capacity prior to his political career, he was reasonably nice but he was a blagger. He was caught out often because he was dealing with people who weren't going to be robbed off with waffly answers (and he couldn't give them due to regulatory rules).
In many ways, he's like Johnson, more comfortable with bigger picture stuff, definitely less so on detail and not so entertaining.
Whatever happened to "The Big Society" ?
I don't think it ever had a great deal of substance to it. He should have talked about boosting social capital instead.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
What is left of Cameron's legacy?
Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.
Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
Having dealt with him in a professional capacity prior to his political career, he was reasonably nice but he was a blagger. He was caught out often because he was dealing with people who weren't going to be robbed off with waffly answers (and he couldn't give them due to regulatory rules).
In many ways, he's like Johnson, more comfortable with bigger picture stuff, definitely less so on detail and not so entertaining.
Whatever happened to "The Big Society" ?
Projected at the launch onto the side of Battersea Power Station iirc?
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think you’re absolutely right. Protect the vulnerable, mitigate by vaccination as vaccines can be tweaked to tackle variants, and get on with life.
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think you’re absolutely right. Protect the vulnerable, mitigate by vaccination as vaccines can be tweaked to tackle variants, and get on with life.
This is, as you say, the new normal.
Yes, we can’t go back to lockdowns. A lot of people will lock themselves down - that’s different
From now on life has more risk, and winters are a bitch
Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year. I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.
It won't be December 2024. It's not five years between GE. It's five year length for Parliament. As Parliament didn't 'return' until (I think) 17th December 2019, it gets to 16th December 2024 to sit. After that, there is the 25 working day delay until the election, putting it somewhere in late January of 2025 (I'm slightly confused as to whether 2nd January would count as a working day or not - its a bank holiday in Scotland so I assume it wouldn't). Wikipedia suggests the last possible date is 28th January 2025 which is a Tuesday. I assume Sunak wouldn't be THAT brave and realistically the last date would be the Thursday before.
Major went the full five years (and a month) when he did April 1992 to May 1997.
Now I'm not sure we've ever had a truly Christmas campaign. I'm not sure what that would look like. Instead of the stjohn crossword, would we be discussing where Ed Davey's photo op of him eating his Christmas dinner would be?
One issue with leaving the election to the absolute last moment is that I'm not sure whether it would then be possible to delay the election with an order in council, or if it would require primary legislation (which wouldn't be possible at that stage).
There's a small risk of some sort of natural, or other, disaster, where you would want to be able to delay election day for a week or so.
“Finally, we demonstrated that the intrinsic pathogenicity of XBB in hamsters is comparable to or even lower than that of BA.2.75, an ancestral lineage of XBB. 7/“
“Neutralization assay revealed that XBB is the most profoundly resistant variant to BA.2/5 breakthrough infection sera ever (!!). >30-fold more resistant to BA.2 breakthrough infection sera than BA.2, and >13-fold more resistant to BA.5 breakthrough infection sera than BA.2😵 5/“
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
Nigel Kennedy thinks Charles is more socialist than Starmer
Not difficult; I certainly don’t get the impression that Starmer is a socialist. Historically, the labour party was a coalition between Methodism and Marxism, and so far as I can see Starmer is firmly on the Methodist Wing.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
Nigel Kennedy thinks Charles is more socialist than Starmer
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
Indeed, unlike Blair in 1997 however Starmer won’t have a growing economy to help him when he comes in. He will face high inflation and strikes and a situation more like the 1970s and if he does not get a grip on it soon there will soon be swingback to the Tory opposition
PM Starmer already in trouble, and needs to get a grip soon? Sounds like you've already conceded defeat.
Several posters this morning have cottoned on to the notion that Starmer is failing to get a grip on the economy, I would add that the NHS, industrial relations and immigration are also problematic. Has anyone yet suggested we need an experienced troubleshooter like Boris Johnson to get all the big calls right?
“Finally, we demonstrated that the intrinsic pathogenicity of XBB in hamsters is comparable to or even lower than that of BA.2.75, an ancestral lineage of XBB. 7/“
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think the only way we'd return to a form of lockdown is if it 'flipped' demographically and started picking off children at a high rate.
After the last three years, everyone should realise predicting the next 12 months in politics is the ultimate mug's game.
Spot on.
Well of course. It's also the reason for PBs existence (though sometimes it is hard to spot) and, for a particular collection of obsessives, enormous fun. But the advice is always the same: if you don't want to have to raffle your trousers at Hexham get a return ticket.
Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year. I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.
It'll be October 2024.
Meanwhile, no visible sunrise this morning, latest one of the year notwithstanding
I reckon so too. Another 18 months of zombie government.
It might look like a zombie government, but it’s really masterful inaction. This government will, deliberately but without being so crass as to actually say it out loud, run everything down as much as they can, building on the damage they’ve done over the last 12 years. The idea is to leave a smoking wreckage for Labour. They longer the Tories remain in office, the more they can do and the harder it will be for Labour to repair. It’s spiteful and morally bankrupt but they’re Tories, so they don’t care.
None of this will be made explicit, but just watch what they do. Happily let the NHS continue to decline, resist public sector wage demands, resist any kind of sanity in our dealings with the EU. Storing up problems for Labour. Assiduously salting the earth.
If they can continue to antagonise Scot Nats whilst punting another referendum into the next parliament, that will be good too. So, if they do end up seceding, HYUFD can say it was a Labour government that let Scotland go, much like he burbles that it was a Labour government that let India go. Same goes with NI. This current iteration of the Tory Party doesn’t give a fig about Scotland or NI.
They’ll continue to damage the country and, once in opposition, carp at Labour for not solving quickly enough the problems the Tories have created through their evolution to Little Englander isolationism.
If Labour allow an indyref2 that is their problem to win it, the Tories are refusing one and respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote as the Supreme Court confirmed the UK government can do.
If Scotland did go if a Labour government granted an indyref2 and lost it then the Conservatives would instantly become an English Nationalist party overnight to take as hard a line with the SNP and Edinburgh government as Brussels took with London after the Brexit vote
They are already an English Nationalist Party with a few vichy traitors in their colony
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
Indeed, unlike Blair in 1997 however Starmer won’t have a growing economy to help him when he comes in. He will face high inflation and strikes and a situation more like the 1970s and if he does not get a grip on it soon there will soon be swingback to the Tory opposition
PM Starmer already in trouble, and needs to get a grip soon? Sounds like you've already conceded defeat.
He has tbf. Can't think of many if any PB Tories who think GE24 is winnable.
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think the only way we'd return to a form of lockdown is if it 'flipped' demographically and started picking off children at a high rate.
My mother-in-law is not going into town today because she's a bit sniffly and doesn't want to spread it around. A family gathering two days ago was cancelled because the hosts children had colds.
People will adjust their activity in response to their personal experience and the news to an extent anyway. The question is: what should the government do?
Even if we leave aside the question of legal restrictions on normal daily activities, there is the question of whether they should advise people to consider taking such actions voluntarily, and whether they should provide any financial support for businesses that would be affected as a result.
Just as a reminder: we currently have plenty of time to install HEPA filtration of air for indoor public spaces, which would help with all respiratory viruses, every winter.
The idea that we might go into a future pandemic without having taken such an obvious step to reduce transmission is mind-boggling.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
Nigel Kennedy thinks Charles is more socialist than Starmer
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think the only way we'd return to a form of lockdown is if it 'flipped' demographically and started picking off children at a high rate.
No repeat of full fat lockdown (British flavour) but if the circs return as they were on deaths and hospitalizations I think we would again look at (and probably implement) enforced distancing, wfh, and a test & isolation regime.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
Nigel Kennedy thinks Charles is more socialist than Starmer
Not difficult; I certainly don’t get the impression that Starmer is a socialist. Historically, the labour party was a coalition between Methodism and Marxism, and so far as I can see Starmer is firmly on the Methodist Wing.
Now it is more a coalition between social democrats and Marxists, Starmer is more on the social democrat wing, Corbynites on the Marxist wing.
Starmer is an atheist with a Jewish wife, he is certainly no methodist, not many methodists left in Labour now
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think the only way we'd return to a form of lockdown is if it 'flipped' demographically and started picking off children at a high rate.
My mother-in-law is not going into town today because she's a bit sniffly and doesn't want to spread it around. A family gathering two days ago was cancelled because the hosts children had colds.
People will adjust their activity in response to their personal experience and the news to an extent anyway. The question is: what should the government do?
Even if we leave aside the question of legal restrictions on normal daily activities, there is the question of whether they should advise people to consider taking such actions voluntarily, and whether they should provide any financial support for businesses that would be affected as a result.
Just as a reminder: we currently have plenty of time to install HEPA filtration of air for indoor public spaces, which would help with all respiratory viruses, every winter.
The idea that we might go into a future pandemic without having taken such an obvious step to reduce transmission is mind-boggling.
Luckily the government has decided to cancel all the trains again so I will have another week of working from home next week. Hurray for Sunak. Hurray!
I gather Anders Tegnell is available for a free transfer if we want to be on the winning side in the Covid cup competition. It would make sense. Who (not WHO) predicted Sweden would be the winner last time?
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think the only way we'd return to a form of lockdown is if it 'flipped' demographically and started picking off children at a high rate.
No repeat of full fat lockdown but if the circs return as they were on deaths and hospitalizations I think we would again look at (and probably implement) enforced distancing and a test and isolation regime.
The economy would finally implode. Distancing would kill of the rest of hospitality and multiple other industries, from tourism to retail
Fact is, we can’t afford any of these mitigations, any more
XBB is present in China. The first paper parsing it was published by Beijing boffins. I wonder if XBB is the variant that caused Xi to give up on Zero Covid. It seems to be fantastically adaptive
“Kevin Kavanagh, M.D. (Health Watch USA) said, “If viruses can start swapping genetic material, then the sky is the limit on the number of variants and the characteristics.. this variant (XBB) has a potential to spread worldwide in the near future."”
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
Nigel Kennedy thinks Charles is more socialist than Starmer
Have seen no publicity whatsoever for the £2 single bus fare cap which begins tomorrow. Won't be paying £8.20 return (!!) into Toon for a while. Yet nobody at all seems to be aware of it. On a bus right now which will be capped from tomorrow. No posters or owt. Here is a list of routes on which it applies.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
Nigel Kennedy thinks Charles is more socialist than Starmer
Not difficult; I certainly don’t get the impression that Starmer is a socialist. Historically, the labour party was a coalition between Methodism and Marxism, and so far as I can see Starmer is firmly on the Methodist Wing.
Starmer is a Roundhead - as socially and fiscally conservative as Cromwell himself. Unfortunately for the Tories they have ditched their most plausible leader for being ... err ... too cavalier, and saddled themselves with Tumbledown Rishy for the duration. My understanding of 17th Century history is sketchy but when the writing's on the wall, as it was in 1659, the English have a genius for embracing the inevitable.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
Nigel Kennedy thinks Charles is more socialist than Starmer
Not difficult; I certainly don’t get the impression that Starmer is a socialist. Historically, the labour party was a coalitioni between Methodism and Marxism, and so far as I can see Starmer is firmly on the Methodist Wing.
Now it is more a coalition between social democrats and Marxists, Starmer is more on the social democrat wing, Corbynites on the Marxist wing.
Starmer is an atheist with a Jewish wife, he is certainly no methodist, not many methodists left in Labour now
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think the only way we'd return to a form of lockdown is if it 'flipped' demographically and started picking off children at a high rate.
My mother-in-law is not going into town today because she's a bit sniffly and doesn't want to spread it around. A family gathering two days ago was cancelled because the hosts children had colds.
People will adjust their activity in response to their personal experience and the news to an extent anyway. The question is: what should the government do?
Even if we leave aside the question of legal restrictions on normal daily activities, there is the question of whether they should advise people to consider taking such actions voluntarily, and whether they should provide any financial support for businesses that would be affected as a result.
Just as a reminder: we currently have plenty of time to install HEPA filtration of air for indoor public spaces, which would help with all respiratory viruses, every winter.
The idea that we might go into a future pandemic without having taken such an obvious step to reduce transmission is mind-boggling.
Yes, ventilation is an obvious step forward in schools and other crowded indoor spaces, as well as hospitals. It should be designed into all new builds.
Meanwhile Shaun Lintern is listing the state of critical incidents in the NHS. Not a good night to get pissed and fall over:
"Today's thread of NHS critical incidents below...pretty clear almost every major hospital area affected.
London has been the one area so far where I have not seen incidents declared. Is everything there ok? 🫤"
On balance I think both those two leading opinions are right. I narrowly think an election will happen in 2023, in which case Sunak is toast. I know the mechanisms are not in place in Parliament YET for a 2023 election but I still think it may happen.
And if it doesn't, it will be no later than October 2024 with Spring 2024 the more likely.
The Conservatives will be even more slaughtered, including by the media, if they tried to drag this into early 2025.
Why would an election happen in 2023?
Two things I've learned study studying politics are:
1. Never underestimate the power of the people
2. Always expect the unexpected. Especially these days. If I had sat with you 4 years ago and told you all the things which were about to happen, you'd have put me in a straightjacket and taken me to one of the last remaining Cuckoo Nest padded cells.
There are a number of ways in which a 2023 election might happen but in my view the most likely ones do NOT presuppose Sunak/Tories being in charge of events. The power of the people is one. The power of the media is another. The power of the Nigel Farage Brexit wing is yet one more.
For instance, if you're a red wall tory MP and you know you're going to lose under Sunak, how tempting might it be to go full tonto with Farage: all out to win? 40 defections, a VONC, going for broke.
Nothing, nothing, would surprise me given what we have seen.
I think we have a tendency, still, to bet according to past form but that's been a piss poor basis of late.
At this point, if an election is held, then the Tories would be eviscerated, therefore unlikely that an election would be held before the due date of December 2024. The exception might be that a summer election is easier to fight (having tramped the doors in the North of Scotland in the 2019 campaign, I loathe winter elections). However, that would be Summer 2024, not 2023.
The only potential I see for a GE earlier than 2024 is if the Tories simply collapse and no one can command a majority in the Commons. That could happen if they make a botched move against Sunak, but having a fourth PM in not much more than a year would surely be a suicidal move. So while JRM and others might aim to wield the knife, I think the grey suits would skin them alive if they did so.
We had the drama in 2022, the next 12-24 months will be just waiting for the patient to die.
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think the only way we'd return to a form of lockdown is if it 'flipped' demographically and started picking off children at a high rate.
My mother-in-law is not going into town today because she's a bit sniffly and doesn't want to spread it around. A family gathering two days ago was cancelled because the hosts children had colds.
People will adjust their activity in response to their personal experience and the news to an extent anyway. The question is: what should the government do?
Even if we leave aside the question of legal restrictions on normal daily activities, there is the question of whether they should advise people to consider taking such actions voluntarily, and whether they should provide any financial support for businesses that would be affected as a result.
Just as a reminder: we currently have plenty of time to install HEPA filtration of air for indoor public spaces, which would help with all respiratory viruses, every winter.
The idea that we might go into a future pandemic without having taken such an obvious step to reduce transmission is mind-boggling.
Well, that odd combination of mind- boggling and totally fucking par for the course.
It is with great regret that I inform PB that we have to worry about Covid. Again
Why? I don't see any evidence that the new variants circulating are especially virulent. Covid hospitalisation and deaths remain low. Personally I don't see any reason to worry. I'll be getting on with my life as usual.
It is with great regret that I inform PB that we have to worry about Covid. Again
Why? I don't see any evidence that the new variants circulating are especially virulent. Covid hospitalisation and deaths remain low. Personally I don't see any reason to worry. I'll be getting on with my life as usual.
Because having to worry about covid is DRAMATIC!, and Leon wants everything to be the MOST DRAMATIC, IMPORTANT and OMG WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!!!!! event since the last time he did this on another topic, yesterday.
Every few months from now until the holy grail of a pan-coronavirus vaccine is developed we’re going to be hearing about a new variant with a scary sounding acronym.
Each new variant will always have a fitness advantage over the previous ones because of immunity. That’s just the maths. It’s hard to get excited about.
The data from China show that they’re dominated by the old lineages at the moment because they don’t have the same immunity to them as we do.
The poor Guardian must have got their knickers in a twist how to report this one - do we support the strikers or the fact that immigration checks are leading to fewer people being detained:
We assume the Tories will come back but why can't this be the last time they ever govern? Has anyone considered the idea they might now be out of government for decades? No reason they have to win again.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
Indeed, unlike Blair in 1997 however Starmer won’t have a growing economy to help him when he comes in. He will face high inflation and strikes and a situation more like the 1970s and if he does not get a grip on it soon there will soon be swingback to the Tory opposition
PM Starmer already in trouble, and needs to get a grip soon? Sounds like you've already conceded defeat.
He has tbf. Can't think of many if any PB Tories who think GE24 is winnable.
You can read them scampering around desperately finding some obscure Labour policy which will frighten them back into the blue fold.
It might be VAT on public schools or the ludicrous notion we will all have to wear masks if Labour gets in or any one of a dozen half-truths, half-smears or half-baked ideas.
Yes, the Labour Manifesto needs proper scrutiny and questions will need to be answered but the Conservatives have led the Government for 13 years and have on four occasions won the most seats in a General Election. It's impossible for them to evade or avoid any responsibility for what has happened.
The poor Guardian must have got their knickers in a twist how to report this one - do we support the strikers or the fact that immigration checks are leading to fewer people being detained:
Have seen no publicity whatsoever for the £2 single bus fare cap which begins tomorrow. Won't be paying £8.20 return (!!) into Toon for a while. Yet nobody at all seems to be aware of it. On a bus right now which will be capped from tomorrow. No posters or owt. Here is a list of routes on which it applies.
Yes, it's astonishing that the government isn't trumpeting this more - incompetence? It's a really good idea, supported by lefties and bus users like me. Where I live, every bus journey from city centre to places 30 miles apart will be £2, Saving money and getting cars off the road - what's not to like? And yet, as you say, nobody's heard of it. Weird.
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
It is with great regret that I inform PB that we have to worry about Covid. Again
Anecdotally, I agree, having just tested positive for the first time ever
It’s grim, I wouldn’t even wish it upon Farage/Truss/Johnson/Bryant (delete as applicable)
My wife and I are just coming to the end of covid (hopefully), we fell ill a few days before Christmas and are just recovering I think. Head cold, sinus, bubbly cough for ages, not much sleep overnight. Funnily enough our temps were normal. I hope to be clear by first day of term, (9th)
I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
Great. But:
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
It’s plainly going to overtake Omicron. It’s fitter, and adaptive. It evades the vax and immunity. There will be breakthrough infections and reinfections
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
I think the only way we'd return to a form of lockdown is if it 'flipped' demographically and started picking off children at a high rate.
No repeat of full fat lockdown but if the circs return as they were on deaths and hospitalizations I think we would again look at (and probably implement) enforced distancing and a test and isolation regime.
The economy would finally implode. Distancing would kill of the rest of hospitality and multiple other industries, from tourism to retail
Fact is, we can’t afford any of these mitigations, any more
XBB is present in China. The first paper parsing it was published by Beijing boffins. I wonder if XBB is the variant that caused Xi to give up on Zero Covid. It seems to be fantastically adaptive
“Kevin Kavanagh, M.D. (Health Watch USA) said, “If viruses can start swapping genetic material, then the sky is the limit on the number of variants and the characteristics.. this variant (XBB) has a potential to spread worldwide in the near future."”
Probably no Furlough etc. Money is tight. But if we are again faced with the total collapse of the NHS we would again bust a gut to avoid that. The notion we were so traumatized by "lockdown" that if a new killer disease comes along we'll just go, "Well fuck that, come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" is way off the mark.
Reading about continuing utter chaos on the railways. Never mind that operators are cancelling everything and leaving people stranded, the likes of Avanti are telling passengers there is nothing they can do and that they won't honour the contracted conditions of carriage. Absurdities like passengers at Carlisle being told to go to Newcastle for an LNER train, getting across for not only LNER to refuse to accept their tickets but Northern refusing to carry them back to Carlisle.
This is great news for the government. The plan is to cut services and costs, and scarring passengers by making travel an absolute hellfest is a great way to drive people away for good. I do have to ask if it is good for the Tories though - it fits the wider narrative of a country where nothing works. Which surely will encourage former rail pax vote them out?
Of those we spent Christmas Day with, two have subsequently become poorly, one definitely Covid. Both under 50, no Covid booster or flu jab. My wife has visited some of them again since, including Mr Cov+ the day before he fell ill. So far, we are both OK, so hopefully the combination of vaccinations and recent infections are doing the trick.
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
The problems besetting the UK are mainly about the desire to have a better quality of life than national income supports. It is hard to see how Labour can lock down thirty years unless the Tory Party rushes to an unelectable extreme, and first, with Sunak that's the one thing they are trying not to do, second, lots of extremes are electable nowadays.
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
The problems besetting the UK are mainly about the desire to have a better quality of life than national income supports. It is hard to see how Labour can lock down thirty years unless the Tory Party rushes to an unelectable extreme, and first, with Sunak that's the one thing they are trying not to do, second, lots of extremes are electable nowadays.
Labour's opportunity is to restructure an economy that has become increasingly broken over the last 50 years. Our national income isn't the issue - we are a rich country. The problem is that our attachment to spivism has made everything cost more and more whilst delivering less and less.
I'm not going to bang on about my support for a StateCo model which makes poorer European countries have better services than we do - you know what I think. But unless significant changes are made to the way we do things we will only get poorer and poorer despite huge tax takes.
We assume the Tories will come back but why can't this be the last time they ever govern? Has anyone considered the idea they might now be out of government for decades? No reason they have to win again.
Of course it might be. But the odds are that they will govern again.
Reasons: there are good reasons, mathematical and societal, why there are frequently exactly two named political groupings who could plausibly form a government in a mature liberal democracy with FPTP.
It is very difficult to become one of those two without a name label attached which is either Labour or Conservative. It is decades since this changed, and a number of attempts, including a sane and rational one (SDP) have foundered.
To get power requires a specially determined group of people determined to obtain it. For the above two reasons such people join Labour or Conservative only.
'Time for a change' is the most powerful of all political slogans. So the Tories turn will come.
I would put a 90% chance on the Tories, under the name 'Conservative' leading a government again within the next 40 years.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
Indeed, unlike Blair in 1997 however Starmer won’t have a growing economy to help him when he comes in. He will face high inflation and strikes and a situation more like the 1970s and if he does not get a grip on it soon there will soon be swingback to the Tory opposition
PM Starmer already in trouble, and needs to get a grip soon? Sounds like you've already conceded defeat.
He has tbf. Can't think of many if any PB Tories who think GE24 is winnable.
You can read them scampering around desperately finding some obscure Labour policy which will frighten them back into the blue fold.
It might be VAT on public schools or the ludicrous notion we will all have to wear masks if Labour gets in or any one of a dozen half-truths, half-smears or half-baked ideas.
Yes, the Labour Manifesto needs proper scrutiny and questions will need to be answered but the Conservatives have led the Government for 13 years and have on four occasions won the most seats in a General Election. It's impossible for them to evade or avoid any responsibility for what has happened.
Yep. I know it irritates when mindreading is attempted - even by skilled practitioners - but it's clear what is happening here. Even the bluest of tories accepts in their heart of hearts they've made such a mess these last few years that they don't deserve a vote next time. So if you realize - again in that heart of hearts - that come what may you WILL be voting for them you need to start rolling the pitch for preservation of dignity, and this takes the form of projecting monstrous qualities onto Labour, eg - yes - the 2 you mention: VAT on private school fees is the start of a Class War! and if Starmer is PM he'll be Locking Us Down every winter in response to the sniffles. It's nonsense on stilts, but that doesn't matter, you do what you need to do.
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
The problems besetting the UK are mainly about the desire to have a better quality of life than national income supports. It is hard to see how Labour can lock down thirty years unless the Tory Party rushes to an unelectable extreme, and first, with Sunak that's the one thing they are trying not to do, second, lots of extremes are electable nowadays.
If Labour don't sort out the economy if they win next time they could be out in 5 years not after 30!
We assume the Tories will come back but why can't this be the last time they ever govern? Has anyone considered the idea they might now be out of government for decades? No reason they have to win again.
Because they are like cockroaches, they will survive Armageddon.
What mutation that will look like is the question. Farage Conservatives or Gaulke Conservatives or an unholy rats in the sack coalition like today.
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
The problems besetting the UK are mainly about the desire to have a better quality of life than national income supports. It is hard to see how Labour can lock down thirty years unless the Tory Party rushes to an unelectable extreme, and first, with Sunak that's the one thing they are trying not to do, second, lots of extremes are electable nowadays.
If Labour don't sort out the economy if they win next time they could be out in 5 years not after 30!
Whilst, in a literal sense, of course Labour could be out after five years, I don't really think the point you're making is right.
Firstly, there will almost certainly be an economic improvement post 2024 simply on a cyclical basis. Secondly, even if structural reforms either don't work or don't yield visible dividends by 2028/9, the "turning round the supertanker" argument is a pretty strong one for re-election, particularly coming off a long period of Conservative led government. Thirdly, there is a very reasonable chance the Tory defeat at the next election will be heavy, and the civil war that ensues severe and bloody.
So it's not impossible Labour will be out after one term, but I'd say the probability of re-election is high even if economic performance is sluggish. The benefit of the doubt is likely to be given in a way that it wouldn't going into a third or fourth election.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
Indeed, unlike Blair in 1997 however Starmer won’t have a growing economy to help him when he comes in. He will face high inflation and strikes and a situation more like the 1970s and if he does not get a grip on it soon there will soon be swingback to the Tory opposition
PM Starmer already in trouble, and needs to get a grip soon? Sounds like you've already conceded defeat.
He has tbf. Can't think of many if any PB Tories who think GE24 is winnable.
You can read them scampering around desperately finding some obscure Labour policy which will frighten them back into the blue fold.
It might be VAT on public schools or the ludicrous notion we will all have to wear masks if Labour gets in or any one of a dozen half-truths, half-smears or half-baked ideas.
Yes, the Labour Manifesto needs proper scrutiny and questions will need to be answered but the Conservatives have led the Government for 13 years and have on four occasions won the most seats in a General Election. It's impossible for them to evade or avoid any responsibility for what has happened.
Yep. I know it irritates when mindreading is attempted - even by skilled practitioners - but it's clear what is happening here. Even the bluest of tories accepts in their heart of hearts they've made such a mess these last few years that they don't deserve a vote next time. So if you realize - again in that heart of hearts - that come what may you WILL be voting for them you need to start rolling the pitch for preservation of dignity, and this takes the form of projecting monstrous qualities onto Labour, eg - yes - the 2 you mention: VAT on private school fees is the start of a Class War! and if Starmer is PM he'll be Locking Us Down every winter in response to the sniffles. It's nonsense on stilts, but that doesn't matter, you do what you need to do.
Suspect that imposing VAT on private school fees would be popular with a lot of first time 2019 Tory voters. So the question to ask is which part of their 2019 coalition will they be speaking to?
I'm going to assume that the unsolvable issues like migration and Brexit/NIP remain unsolved. That public services continue to be broken and taxes continue to be high. There will of course be an inevitable giveaway budget where Hunt tries to hand out free cash bribes without Trussing up the markets. But voters would have to have goldfish brains to accept that and vote Tory.
Which leaves culture wars. As discussed in recent days on here the long term impact of this is very bad for the party - pushing the younger generations away from swinging towards the Tories. But in the immediate term where its all about survival, screw it.
The obvious targets are: Commie unions where Labour dance to the tune of greedy workshy nurses and teachers. More attacks on how much they earn which is More Than You. Schools and Hospitals in general - need to further undermine the very institutions to make the nurses and teachers legit targets. They're teaching kids to be trans or something. Migration - Labour want your job to be stolen by an Albanian. Woke - our proud British way of life of attacking minor royals for being a wrong 'un is under threat by wokeists who will try to stop your wonderful Daily Mail / GBeebies news outlets reporting the Truth.
The good news for the Tories is that weaponised stupidity became widely accepted by voters who would happily say they liked being lied to if it upset the other side. The bad news is that all bar the most stupid have realised this is the trick being pulled...
We assume the Tories will come back but why can't this be the last time they ever govern? Has anyone considered the idea they might now be out of government for decades? No reason they have to win again.
Of course it might be. But the odds are that they will govern again.
Reasons: there are good reasons, mathematical and societal, why there are frequently exactly two named political groupings who could plausibly form a government in a mature liberal democracy with FPTP.
It is very difficult to become one of those two without a name label attached which is either Labour or Conservative. It is decades since this changed, and a number of attempts, including a sane and rational one (SDP) have foundered.
To get power requires a specially determined group of people determined to obtain it. For the above two reasons such people join Labour or Conservative only.
'Time for a change' is the most powerful of all political slogans. So the Tories turn will come.
I would put a 90% chance on the Tories, under the name 'Conservative' leading a government again within the next 40 years.
The thing that the Conservatives have always been good at is understanding that you can't do anything without being in power. Eventually they will put someone in charge who hasn't been involved in the last 13 years and will look electable again.
It feels a bit 1996ish at the moment and the same conversations were had then. I'd expect Labour to win the next 2 or 3 elections and the Tories to be in power again in between 12 and 16 years time.
There are a couple of things that could change that. An elected house of lords or introduction of PR for Westminster elections. If it doesn't happen in the first term of a Labour government then it won't happen. Medium to long term both are in the interests of the Anti-Tory coalition but not in the short term interests of Labour.
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
The problems besetting the UK are mainly about the desire to have a better quality of life than national income supports. It is hard to see how Labour can lock down thirty years unless the Tory Party rushes to an unelectable extreme, and first, with Sunak that's the one thing they are trying not to do, second, lots of extremes are electable nowadays.
If Labour don't sort out the economy if they win next time they could be out in 5 years not after 30!
Whilst, in a literal sense, of course Labour could be out after five years, I don't really think the point you're making is right.
Firstly, there will almost certainly be an economic improvement post 2024 simply on a cyclical basis. Secondly, even if structural reforms either don't work or don't yield visible dividends by 2028/9, the "turning round the supertanker" argument is a pretty strong one for re-election, particularly coming off a long period of Conservative led government. Thirdly, there is a very reasonable chance the Tory defeat at the next election will be heavy, and the civil war that ensues severe and bloody.
So it's not impossible Labour will be out after one term, but I'd say the probability of re-election is high even if economic performance is sluggish. The benefit of the doubt is likely to be given in a way that it wouldn't going into a third or fourth election.
I do hope Labour consider introducing some form of PR, that would keep the Tories out for a generation.
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
The problems besetting the UK are mainly about the desire to have a better quality of life than national income supports. It is hard to see how Labour can lock down thirty years unless the Tory Party rushes to an unelectable extreme, and first, with Sunak that's the one thing they are trying not to do, second, lots of extremes are electable nowadays.
If Labour don't sort out the economy if they win next time they could be out in 5 years not after 30!
Yes, clearing up the mess left by the Tories, as ever. If only the Tories had fixed the roof while the sun was shining.
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
The problems besetting the UK are mainly about the desire to have a better quality of life than national income supports. It is hard to see how Labour can lock down thirty years unless the Tory Party rushes to an unelectable extreme, and first, with Sunak that's the one thing they are trying not to do, second, lots of extremes are electable nowadays.
If Labour don't sort out the economy if they win next time they could be out in 5 years not after 30!
Whilst, in a literal sense, of course Labour could be out after five years, I don't really think the point you're making is right.
Firstly, there will almost certainly be an economic improvement post 2024 simply on a cyclical basis. Secondly, even if structural reforms either don't work or don't yield visible dividends by 2028/9, the "turning round the supertanker" argument is a pretty strong one for re-election, particularly coming off a long period of Conservative led government. Thirdly, there is a very reasonable chance the Tory defeat at the next election will be heavy, and the civil war that ensues severe and bloody.
So it's not impossible Labour will be out after one term, but I'd say the probability of re-election is high even if economic performance is sluggish. The benefit of the doubt is likely to be given in a way that it wouldn't going into a third or fourth election.
I do hope Labour consider introducing some form of PR, that would keep the Tories out for a generation.
I think the chance of Starmer doing it if he has a majority of 100 is negligible. He's pretty much set it up as a bargaining chip for a post-election deal (by saying "well, conference voted for it, but I'm not personally convinced and it's not going in the manifesto"). This puts him in a nice position in that he can offer it as a concession but make the point internally that the Party voted for it. But if he doesn't have to have that negotiation, I just can't see him suddenly seeing it as a first term priority - that sounds like fantasy to me.
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
The problems besetting the UK are mainly about the desire to have a better quality of life than national income supports. It is hard to see how Labour can lock down thirty years unless the Tory Party rushes to an unelectable extreme, and first, with Sunak that's the one thing they are trying not to do, second, lots of extremes are electable nowadays.
If Labour don't sort out the economy if they win next time they could be out in 5 years not after 30!
Whilst, in a literal sense, of course Labour could be out after five years, I don't really think the point you're making is right.
Firstly, there will almost certainly be an economic improvement post 2024 simply on a cyclical basis. Secondly, even if structural reforms either don't work or don't yield visible dividends by 2028/9, the "turning round the supertanker" argument is a pretty strong one for re-election, particularly coming off a long period of Conservative led government. Thirdly, there is a very reasonable chance the Tory defeat at the next election will be heavy, and the civil war that ensues severe and bloody.
So it's not impossible Labour will be out after one term, but I'd say the probability of re-election is high even if economic performance is sluggish. The benefit of the doubt is likely to be given in a way that it wouldn't going into a third or fourth election.
I do hope Labour consider introducing some form of PR, that would keep the Tories out for a generation.
I think the chance of Starmer doing it if he has a majority of 100 is negligible. He's pretty much set it up as a bargaining chip for a post-election deal (by saying "well, conference voted for it, but I'm not personally convinced and it's not going in the manifesto"). This puts him in a nice position in that he can offer it as a concession but make the point internally that the Party voted for it. But if he doesn't have to have that negotiation, I just can't see him suddenly seeing it as a first term priority - that sounds like fantasy to me.
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
I seem to remember reading that he joined the Uni branches of the 3 main political parties so he could listen to the debates and chat to people about their policies.
Nigel Kennedy thinks Charles is more socialist than Starmer
Not difficult; I certainly don’t get the impression that Starmer is a socialist. Historically, the labour party was a coalition between Methodism and Marxism, and so far as I can see Starmer is firmly on the Methodist Wing.
Now it is more a coalition between social democrats and Marxists, Starmer is more on the social democrat wing, Corbynites on the Marxist wing.
Starmer is an atheist with a Jewish wife, he is certainly no methodist, not many methodists left in Labour now
You spit out "Starmer is an atheist with a Jewish wife" with some tacit invective. Linking divinity of faith to political ability may be more pertinent than I give you credit for. It may explain away the disastrous premiership of that narcissistic agnostic, Johnson.
The descent into military authoritarian rule in Israel is being under-reported in mainstream media. There is potential for things to get very nasty fairly quickly.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-netanyahu-bulldozers-untenable-foundations-exposed … Perhaps the most alarming move in the restructuring of the state has been the appointment of Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, as minister of national security responsible for the police. When I first heard about this appointment, walking in the woods with my earphones on, I began to laugh uncontrollably, frightening the birds. It was a bitter, desperate laugh, because it became clear to me that now everything is possible, the breakdown is complete, and that Netanyahu and his aides are deliberately flirting with disaster.
Ben-Gvir, a former follower of the racist extremist Rabbi Meir Kahane, has a long record of inciting Jewish violence towards Palestinians, and was convicted in the past both for supporting a terrorist organisation and for spurring racism.
More recently, the chief of police has accused him of being a major reason for the severe violence between Jewish and Palestinian citizens in mixed cities in May 2021, telling Netanyahu’s government at the time: “The person responsible for this intifada is Itamar Ben-Gvir.”
Now Ben-Gvir will be the boss of the same chief of police, only with vastly more powers than any minister of police before him...
Keir Starmer doesn't strike me as the kind of guy to just let power go away. I think he will ensure a successor is in the same vain as him, meaning there is no chance Labour goes to the left ever again.
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
The problems besetting the UK are mainly about the desire to have a better quality of life than national income supports. It is hard to see how Labour can lock down thirty years unless the Tory Party rushes to an unelectable extreme, and first, with Sunak that's the one thing they are trying not to do, second, lots of extremes are electable nowadays.
If Labour don't sort out the economy if they win next time they could be out in 5 years not after 30!
Whilst, in a literal sense, of course Labour could be out after five years, I don't really think the point you're making is right.
Firstly, there will almost certainly be an economic improvement post 2024 simply on a cyclical basis. Secondly, even if structural reforms either don't work or don't yield visible dividends by 2028/9, the "turning round the supertanker" argument is a pretty strong one for re-election, particularly coming off a long period of Conservative led government. Thirdly, there is a very reasonable chance the Tory defeat at the next election will be heavy, and the civil war that ensues severe and bloody.
So it's not impossible Labour will be out after one term, but I'd say the probability of re-election is high even if economic performance is sluggish. The benefit of the doubt is likely to be given in a way that it wouldn't going into a third or fourth election.
I do hope Labour consider introducing some form of PR, that would keep the Tories out for a generation.
I think the chance of Starmer doing it if he has a majority of 100 is negligible. He's pretty much set it up as a bargaining chip for a post-election deal (by saying "well, conference voted for it, but I'm not personally convinced and it's not going in the manifesto"). This puts him in a nice position in that he can offer it as a concession but make the point internally that the Party voted for it. But if he doesn't have to have that negotiation, I just can't see him suddenly seeing it as a first term priority - that sounds like fantasy to me.
Indeed, Labour could win 450 MPs on 45% of the vote under FPTP but would get only about 300 with PR. 150 Labour MPs will not vote to make themselves redundant.
PR also means 50 RefUK MPs on current polls and maybe even more Tory MPs than FPTP would now give them
The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
Indeed, unlike Blair in 1997 however Starmer won’t have a growing economy to help him when he comes in. He will face high inflation and strikes and a situation more like the 1970s and if he does not get a grip on it soon there will soon be swingback to the Tory opposition
PM Starmer already in trouble, and needs to get a grip soon? Sounds like you've already conceded defeat.
He has tbf. Can't think of many if any PB Tories who think GE24 is winnable.
You can read them scampering around desperately finding some obscure Labour policy which will frighten them back into the blue fold.
It might be VAT on public schools or the ludicrous notion we will all have to wear masks if Labour gets in or any one of a dozen half-truths, half-smears or half-baked ideas.
Yes, the Labour Manifesto needs proper scrutiny and questions will need to be answered but the Conservatives have led the Government for 13 years and have on four occasions won the most seats in a General Election. It's impossible for them to evade or avoid any responsibility for what has happened.
Yep. I know it irritates when mindreading is attempted - even by skilled practitioners - but it's clear what is happening here. Even the bluest of tories accepts in their heart of hearts they've made such a mess these last few years that they don't deserve a vote next time. So if you realize - again in that heart of hearts - that come what may you WILL be voting for them you need to start rolling the pitch for preservation of dignity, and this takes the form of projecting monstrous qualities onto Labour, eg - yes - the 2 you mention: VAT on private school fees is the start of a Class War! and if Starmer is PM he'll be Locking Us Down every winter in response to the sniffles. It's nonsense on stilts, but that doesn't matter, you do what you need to do.
Suspect that imposing VAT on private school fees would be popular with a lot of first time 2019 Tory voters. So the question to ask is which part of their 2019 coalition will they be speaking to?
I'm going to assume that the unsolvable issues like migration and Brexit/NIP remain unsolved. That public services continue to be broken and taxes continue to be high. There will of course be an inevitable giveaway budget where Hunt tries to hand out free cash bribes without Trussing up the markets. But voters would have to have goldfish brains to accept that and vote Tory.
Which leaves culture wars. As discussed in recent days on here the long term impact of this is very bad for the party - pushing the younger generations away from swinging towards the Tories. But in the immediate term where its all about survival, screw it.
The obvious targets are: Commie unions where Labour dance to the tune of greedy workshy nurses and teachers. More attacks on how much they earn which is More Than You. Schools and Hospitals in general - need to further undermine the very institutions to make the nurses and teachers legit targets. They're teaching kids to be trans or something. Migration - Labour want your job to be stolen by an Albanian. Woke - our proud British way of life of attacking minor royals for being a wrong 'un is under threat by wokeists who will try to stop your wonderful Daily Mail / GBeebies news outlets reporting the Truth.
The good news for the Tories is that weaponised stupidity became widely accepted by voters who would happily say they liked being lied to if it upset the other side. The bad news is that all bar the most stupid have realised this is the trick being pulled...
I used to fear that stuff working, not so much now. Brexit, Trump. big poll leads for Johnson, these things aren't exactly ancient history but I do sense a change of climate. Culture war is probably still the best Tory election strategy though. They can get 33% like that, touch more even, and with helpful boundaries and an inefficient split of the Lab/LD/Gr vote perhaps restrict Lab to minority govt.
I would love to see the justifications from the honours committee how some of the recent names were fine to get an award....e.g. how many dodgy articles in a medical journal is too many before you get disqualified?
Comments
In many ways, he's like Johnson, more comfortable with bigger picture stuff, definitely less so on detail and not so entertaining.
“Together, our findings indicate that BQ and XBB subvariants present serious threats to current COVID-19 vaccines, render inactive all authorized antibodies, and may have gained dominance in the population because of their advantage in evading antibodies."”
https://twitter.com/abraarkaran/status/1609067496484794370?s=46&t=ogW1vuugQdQz0Ud_SnuMBg
This variant - XBB - is now causing alarm. Some suggestion it is more virulent. Also easily evades vax and immunity. Seems to have evolved in NYC
Back in the mid-90s, the moth-eared Tory party was not only damaged by its own actions but also comparisons with what seemed like a fresh-faced Labour party with new ideas. The U.K. is one of those countries where protest is not enough - you need to have something positive to vote for the alternative (I would put Italy, for example, in the opposite camp).
Today's Labour party just doesn't have that fizz. Starmer is dull and he is winning at the moment just by being not the Tories. That's a dangerous position to be in - your lead depends on your opponent. It doesn't seem like Labour will rise forth with a detailed programme any time soon (and @NickPalmer's comment the other day suggests that is very much a deliberate strategy).
My prediction is Labour's lead will start to collapse very quickly as the election date gets closer. It doesn't mean SKS won't be the next PM but the idea the Tories are going to be down to <100 seats is very very unlikely.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/prince-charles-is-more-socialist-than-the-labour-party-an-interview-with-nigel-kennedy/
1. Never underestimate the power of the people
2. Always expect the unexpected. Especially these days. If I had sat with you 4 years ago and told you all the things which were about to happen, you'd have put me in a straightjacket and taken me to one of the last remaining Cuckoo Nest padded cells.
There are a number of ways in which a 2023 election might happen but in my view the most likely ones do NOT presuppose Sunak/Tories being in charge of events. The power of the people is one. The power of the media is another. The power of the Nigel Farage Brexit wing is yet one more.
For instance, if you're a red wall tory MP and you know you're going to lose under Sunak, how tempting might it be to go full tonto with Farage: all out to win? 40 defections, a VONC, going for broke.
Nothing, nothing, would surprise me given what we have seen.
I think we have a tendency, still, to bet according to past form but that's been a piss poor basis of late.
https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1609095336567476226?s=61&t=4mj8DxSe-b54To-oeBPcsw
He’s not too concerned at the moment so neither am I.
Sounds like you've already conceded defeat.
What a giant load of bollocks that was.
So that leaves pathogenicity. The evidence is mixed, at the moment
I honestly wonder what we would do if it turned out to be seriously nastier. Does anyone have the energy for another lockdown? I doubt it. Probably we would just shrug and let it rip. The new normal
This is, as you say, the new normal.
From now on life has more risk, and winters are a bitch
There's a small risk of some sort of natural, or other, disaster, where you would want to be able to delay election day for a week or so.
“Finally, we demonstrated that the intrinsic pathogenicity of XBB in hamsters is comparable to or even lower than that of BA.2.75, an ancestral lineage of XBB. 7/“
https://twitter.com/systemsvirology/status/1607886400950792193?s=46&t=AS8DzjDnQyjmUzSJPFH1fg
But we will all get another dose
“Neutralization assay revealed that XBB is the most profoundly resistant variant to BA.2/5 breakthrough infection sera ever (!!). >30-fold more resistant to BA.2 breakthrough infection sera than BA.2, and >13-fold more resistant to BA.5 breakthrough infection sera than BA.2😵 5/“
https://twitter.com/systemsvirology/status/1607886386467868673?s=46&t=AS8DzjDnQyjmUzSJPFH1fg
1.50 Newbury - Soaring Glory
2.10 Warwick - Stamp Your Feet
2.25 Newbury - Moroder
Some horses running today.
Happy New Year. 😘
https://www.ft.com/content/9784cc74-1193-4e1b-bf61-8ecaf19f569e
It’s going to be a bumpier ride than maybe we hoped, but we must resist the pleasures of panic, for now
People will adjust their activity in response to their personal experience and the news to an extent anyway. The question is: what should the government do?
Even if we leave aside the question of legal restrictions on normal daily activities, there is the question of whether they should advise people to consider taking such actions voluntarily, and whether they should provide any financial support for businesses that would be affected as a result.
Just as a reminder: we currently have plenty of time to install HEPA filtration of air for indoor public spaces, which would help with all respiratory viruses, every winter.
The idea that we might go into a future pandemic without having taken such an obvious step to reduce transmission is mind-boggling.
Starmer is an atheist with a Jewish wife, he is certainly no methodist, not many methodists left in Labour now
Fact is, we can’t afford any of these mitigations, any more
XBB is present in China. The first paper parsing it was published by Beijing boffins. I wonder if XBB is the variant that caused Xi to give up on Zero Covid. It seems to be fantastically adaptive
“Kevin Kavanagh, M.D. (Health Watch USA) said,
“If viruses can start swapping genetic material, then the sky is the limit on the number of variants and the characteristics.. this variant (XBB) has a potential to spread worldwide in the near future."”
https://twitter.com/yash25571056/status/1608790373018787841?s=46&t=AS8DzjDnQyjmUzSJPFH1fg
Won't be paying £8.20 return (!!) into Toon for a while.
Yet nobody at all seems to be aware of it.
On a bus right now which will be capped from tomorrow. No posters or owt.
Here is a list of routes on which it applies.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/2-bus-fare-cap
Meanwhile Shaun Lintern is listing the state of critical incidents in the NHS. Not a good night to get pissed and fall over:
"Today's thread of NHS critical incidents below...pretty clear almost every major hospital area affected.
London has been the one area so far where I have not seen incidents declared. Is everything there ok? 🫤"
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1608898200198606851?t=1ADR520og6MEpKKHZOADQA&s=19
The only potential I see for a GE earlier than 2024 is if the Tories simply collapse and no one can command a majority in the Commons. That could happen if they make a botched move against Sunak, but having a fourth PM in not much more than a year would surely be a suicidal move. So while JRM and others might aim to wield the knife, I think the grey suits would skin them alive if they did so.
We had the drama in 2022, the next 12-24 months will be just waiting for the patient to die.
It’s grim, I wouldn’t even wish it upon Farage/Truss/Johnson/Bryant (delete as applicable)
Each new variant will always have a fitness advantage over the previous ones because of immunity. That’s just the maths. It’s hard to get excited about.
The data from China show that they’re dominated by the old lineages at the moment because they don’t have the same immunity to them as we do.
It might be VAT on public schools or the ludicrous notion we will all have to wear masks if Labour gets in or any one of a dozen half-truths, half-smears or half-baked ideas.
Yes, the Labour Manifesto needs proper scrutiny and questions will need to be answered but the Conservatives have led the Government for 13 years and have on four occasions won the most seats in a General Election. It's impossible for them to evade or avoid any responsibility for what has happened.
https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1609135229381349376?t=15XUqsGt8YUMc33VAgzDbQ&s=19
This genuinely might be a twenty or thirty year Labour Government. Call me crazy but we were saying the same thing when Johnson won.
https://www.barrons.com/news/putin-praises-benedict-as-defender-of-traditional-christian-values-01672490408
This is great news for the government. The plan is to cut services and costs, and scarring passengers by making travel an absolute hellfest is a great way to drive people away for good. I do have to ask if it is good for the Tories though - it fits the wider narrative of a country where nothing works. Which surely will encourage former rail pax vote them out?
Off to John Lewis to test some mattresses...
Amazing that Putin continues to throw resource to this modest corner of the Internet even on this last day of the year.
I'm not going to bang on about my support for a StateCo model which makes poorer European countries have better services than we do - you know what I think. But unless significant changes are made to the way we do things we will only get poorer and poorer despite huge tax takes.
Reasons: there are good reasons, mathematical and societal, why there are frequently exactly two named political groupings who could plausibly form a government in a mature liberal democracy with FPTP.
It is very difficult to become one of those two without a name label attached which is either Labour or Conservative. It is decades since this changed, and a number of attempts, including a sane and rational one (SDP) have foundered.
To get power requires a specially determined group of people determined to obtain it. For the above two reasons such people join Labour or Conservative only.
'Time for a change' is the most powerful of all political slogans. So the Tories turn will come.
I would put a 90% chance on the Tories, under the name 'Conservative' leading a government again within the next 40 years.
What mutation that will look like is the question. Farage Conservatives or Gaulke Conservatives or an unholy rats in the sack coalition like today.
Firstly, there will almost certainly be an economic improvement post 2024 simply on a cyclical basis. Secondly, even if structural reforms either don't work or don't yield visible dividends by 2028/9, the "turning round the supertanker" argument is a pretty strong one for re-election, particularly coming off a long period of Conservative led government. Thirdly, there is a very reasonable chance the Tory defeat at the next election will be heavy, and the civil war that ensues severe and bloody.
So it's not impossible Labour will be out after one term, but I'd say the probability of re-election is high even if economic performance is sluggish. The benefit of the doubt is likely to be given in a way that it wouldn't going into a third or fourth election.
I'm going to assume that the unsolvable issues like migration and Brexit/NIP remain unsolved. That public services continue to be broken and taxes continue to be high. There will of course be an inevitable giveaway budget where Hunt tries to hand out free cash bribes without Trussing up the markets. But voters would have to have goldfish brains to accept that and vote Tory.
Which leaves culture wars. As discussed in recent days on here the long term impact of this is very bad for the party - pushing the younger generations away from swinging towards the Tories. But in the immediate term where its all about survival, screw it.
The obvious targets are:
Commie unions where Labour dance to the tune of greedy workshy nurses and teachers. More attacks on how much they earn which is More Than You.
Schools and Hospitals in general - need to further undermine the very institutions to make the nurses and teachers legit targets. They're teaching kids to be trans or something.
Migration - Labour want your job to be stolen by an Albanian.
Woke - our proud British way of life of attacking minor royals for being a wrong 'un is under threat by wokeists who will try to stop your wonderful Daily Mail / GBeebies news outlets reporting the Truth.
The good news for the Tories is that weaponised stupidity became widely accepted by voters who would happily say they liked being lied to if it upset the other side. The bad news is that all bar the most stupid have realised this is the trick being pulled...
It feels a bit 1996ish at the moment and the same conversations were had then. I'd expect Labour to win the next 2 or 3 elections and the Tories to be in power again in between 12 and 16 years time.
There are a couple of things that could change that. An elected house of lords or introduction of PR for Westminster elections. If it doesn't happen in the first term of a Labour government then it won't happen. Medium to long term both are in the interests of the Anti-Tory coalition but not in the short term interests of Labour.
If only the Tories had fixed the roof while the sun was shining.
There is potential for things to get very nasty fairly quickly.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-netanyahu-bulldozers-untenable-foundations-exposed
… Perhaps the most alarming move in the restructuring of the state has been the appointment of Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, as minister of national security responsible for the police. When I first heard about this appointment, walking in the woods with my earphones on, I began to laugh uncontrollably, frightening the birds. It was a bitter, desperate laugh, because it became clear to me that now everything is possible, the breakdown is complete, and that Netanyahu and his aides are deliberately flirting with disaster.
Ben-Gvir, a former follower of the racist extremist Rabbi Meir Kahane, has a long record of inciting Jewish violence towards Palestinians, and was convicted in the past both for supporting a terrorist organisation and for spurring racism.
More recently, the chief of police has accused him of being a major reason for the severe violence between Jewish and Palestinian citizens in mixed cities in May 2021, telling Netanyahu’s government at the time: “The person responsible for this intifada is Itamar Ben-Gvir.”
Now Ben-Gvir will be the boss of the same chief of police, only with vastly more powers than any minister of police before him...
PR also means 50 RefUK MPs on current polls and maybe even more Tory MPs than FPTP would now give them
Had my booster and that’s it now . Not having any more jabs and won’t be wearing masks unless it’s a requirement as in a medical setting .
We’re just going to have to accept these new variants will pop up from time to time .
The Supreme Court Historical Society has raised more than $23 million in the last two decades, much of it from lawyers, corporations and special interests.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/30/us/politics/supreme-court-historical-society-donors-justices.html