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Ipsos 2023 poll: There’ll be an election & Sunak won’t survive – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,784
edited January 2023 in General
imageIpsos 2023 poll: There’ll be an election & Sunak won’t survive – politicalbetting.com

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    HeathenerHeathener Posts: 6,083
    edited December 2022
    Good morning all.

    On balance I think both those two leading opinions are right. I narrowly think an election will happen in 2023, in which case Sunak is toast. I know the mechanisms are not in place in Parliament YET for a 2023 election but I still think it may happen.

    And if it doesn't, it will be no later than October 2024 with Spring 2024 the more likely.

    The Conservatives will be even more slaughtered, including by the media, if they tried to drag this into early 2025.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,807
    Good to see that Con voters know that the lying clown is done.

    Wishing for an election doesn’t make it more likely there will be one.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,924
    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,253
    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Turkeys don’t want to get stuffed prematurely.
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    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Two possible scenarios:

    Something magic happens giving the Conservatives a brief spurt of popularity and they cut and run. It would need something incredibly magic for that to happen, though.

    The strikes drag on and get worse, and the government goes to the country on "who governs Britain?" Not going to happen, because we all know the likely answer.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,620
    Heathener said:

    Good morning all.

    On balance I think both those two leading opinions are right. I narrowly think an election will happen in 2023, in which case Sunak is toast. I know the mechanisms are not in place in Parliament YET for a 2023 election but I still think it may happen.

    And if it doesn't, it will be no later than October 2024 with Spring 2024 the more likely.

    The Conservatives will be even more slaughtered, including by the media, if they tried to drag this into early 2025.

    Why would an election happen in 2023?

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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,924

    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Two possible scenarios:

    Something magic happens giving the Conservatives a brief spurt of popularity and they cut and run. It would need something incredibly magic for that to happen, though.

    The strikes drag on and get worse, and the government goes to the country on "who governs Britain?" Not going to happen, because we all know the likely answer.
    The answer, as in 1974, will be "not you".
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    sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 176
    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,050
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Turkeys don’t want to get stuffed prematurely.
    Alas Tories are (seemingly) for life not just for Christmas.
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    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Two possible scenarios:

    Something magic happens giving the Conservatives a brief spurt of popularity and they cut and run. It would need something incredibly magic for that to happen, though.

    The strikes drag on and get worse, and the government goes to the country on "who governs Britain?" Not going to happen, because we all know the likely answer.
    The answer, as in 1974, will be "not you".
    Yup, that's the one.
    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    There is a bit of a difference- the current government don't give the impression of having the same "keep buggering on" resilience as late era Major. Not to say they will blow up, but a lot of panicky skittishness could happen. But the calculation- go now and they lose, hold on and something magic might turn up- is obvious.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,472
    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    Wouldn't the possibility of the weather putting folk off be a major plus for the Tories?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,253
    dixiedean said:

    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    Wouldn't the possibility of the weather putting folk off be a major plus for the Tories?
    Will that still apply now so much of their vote is elderly?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,253
    Looks like today is going to be much less windy. That's unfortunate from the point of view of electricity generation.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,691
    I cannot see any of those predictions in the header happening.



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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,807
    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    It'll be October 2024.

    Meanwhile, no visible sunrise this morning, latest one of the year notwithstanding
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,691
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    Wouldn't the possibility of the weather putting folk off be a major plus for the Tories?
    Will that still apply now so much of their vote is elderly?
    Won't they just go postal? No voter ID needed.

    Negates most of the official campaign too as get returned weeks earlier than other votes.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,253
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    Wouldn't the possibility of the weather putting folk off be a major plus for the Tories?
    Will that still apply now so much of their vote is elderly?
    Won't they just go postal? No voter ID needed.

    Negates most of the official campaign too as get returned weeks earlier than other votes.
    Well, if they're willing to go postal on this government I'd definitely join them.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,115
    edited December 2022
    Good morning, everyone.

    I'd be pissed off if I'd backed Leicester to beat Liverpool given Leicester's players scored three goals and they lost 2-1.

    Edited extra bit: on-topic: unlikely to be an election next year. Where's the advantage for the Conservatives?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,691
    edited December 2022
    DavidL said:

    Remember how Trump could not disclose his tax returns because they were subject to audit? Well, surprise, it was not true: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/12/trump-tax-returns-released-house-committee-irs-audit/672582/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20221230&utm_term=The Atlantic Daily

    Contrary to IRS regulations they did not even begin to audit his returns until 2019, after he had left office. Every other President in recent times has had annual audit whilst in office. It is another clear and vivid example of how Trump was able to corrupt and pervert the US Federal system to his own political and financial advantage. American democracy was seriously imperilled by Trump, January 6th was just one example.

    Trump is as dodgy as hell, but left office in 2021 not 2019.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,691

    Good morning, everyone.

    I'd be pissed off if I'd backed Leicester to beat Liverpool given Leicester's players scored three goals and they lost 2-1.

    Edited extra bit: on-topic: unlikely to be an election next year. Where's the advantage for the Conservatives?

    Faes is one of our best players too.

    I think that Rodgers is falling out with our players and owners again, like at the beginning of the season.

    Our next match is Fulham at home on Tuesday, fans could get restive. They were booing against Newcastle at half time and left early on Boxing Day.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,691
    IanB2 said:

    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    It'll be October 2024.

    Meanwhile, no visible sunrise this morning, latest one of the year notwithstanding
    I reckon so too. Another 18 months of zombie government.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,303
    Lord Frosty @DavidGHFrost ends the year as he begun it..writing sub-teenage banalities to defend his Brexit deal..2023 will show it to be even more gullibly calamitous than it seemed at the time:
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1609082375522377728
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,303
    Ousted Treasury mandarin Tom Scholar named in New Year honours https://on.ft.com/3WXkZ7I
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,253
    Scott_xP said:

    Ousted Treasury mandarin Tom Scholar named in New Year honours https://on.ft.com/3WXkZ7I

    As is that irresponsible conspiracy theorist Richard Horton.

    It's as if they're trying to make the honours system into such a joke it has to be abolished.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,778
    Foxy said:

    I cannot see any of those predictions in the header happening.



    It's yet another shite poll put to people who have no idea what they are talking about. Who pays for these polls?
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    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Turkeys don’t want to get stuffed prematurely.
    Indeed. Somewhere between 50 and 250 Tory MPs are going to lose their jobs. Not only that but their spouses will lose their jobs too, their right to office expenses, travel and housing subsidy will end, as will anybody paying attention to what they say. It will be a financial disaster for most, only the odd rich one such as Sunak or Hunt or the Saj won't really feel the pain and 2 of those will suffer loss of office. The idea that the Conservative party is going to go for an early election is frankly nuts unless the polling changes out of all recognition.
    The personal element always gets overlooked when it comes to motivating factors but it's the key one. All this is absolutely right and I would probably add a few more. One is that delaying the election gives the MPs more time to build up their next career and / or build up contacts. Another is that it increases the chances a few more of them get to become ministers which is a bit more career-helping even if it's only junior min at the Department of Bog Brushing.
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    Scott_xP said:

    Lord Frosty @DavidGHFrost ends the year as he begun it..writing sub-teenage banalities to defend his Brexit deal..2023 will show it to be even more gullibly calamitous than it seemed at the time:
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1609082375522377728

    To be fair Scott, someone might also use the first line about you when it comes to highlighting anti-Brexit tweets...
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    The poor Guardian must have got their knickers in a twist how to report this one - do we support the strikers or the fact that immigration checks are leading to fewer people being detained:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/31/just-nine-passengers-detained-at-heathrow-during-border-force-strike
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,474
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ousted Treasury mandarin Tom Scholar named in New Year honours https://on.ft.com/3WXkZ7I

    As is that irresponsible conspiracy theorist Richard Horton.

    It's as if they're trying to make the honours system into such a joke it has to be abolished.
    "The Order of the British Empire" already has something of a Dadaist spectacle about it.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,184

    The poor Guardian must have got their knickers in a twist how to report this one - do we support the strikers or the fact that immigration checks are leading to fewer people being detained:

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/31/just-nine-passengers-detained-at-heathrow-during-border-force-strike

    How much does that figure vary on a daily basis, and what was the figure in the proceeding ten years for the same three days?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,228
    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751
    edited December 2022
    I just hope these members of the public answering that poll are active on the betfair politics markets. Talk about mug money!
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    eekeek Posts: 25,821

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Turkeys don’t want to get stuffed prematurely.
    Indeed. Somewhere between 50 and 250 Tory MPs are going to lose their jobs. Not only that but their spouses will lose their jobs too, their right to office expenses, travel and housing subsidy will end, as will anybody paying attention to what they say. It will be a financial disaster for most, only the odd rich one such as Sunak or Hunt or the Saj won't really feel the pain and 2 of those will suffer loss of office. The idea that the Conservative party is going to go for an early election is frankly nuts unless the polling changes out of all recognition.
    The personal element always gets overlooked when it comes to motivating factors but it's the key one. All this is absolutely right and I would probably add a few more. One is that delaying the election gives the MPs more time to build up their next career and / or build up contacts. Another is that it increases the chances a few more of them get to become ministers which is a bit more career-helping even if it's only junior min at the Department of Bog Brushing.
    So something we should watch out for is a reshuffle of junior ministers in late 2023 as the current ones move on to "other interests".
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    Scott_xP said:

    Lord Frosty @DavidGHFrost ends the year as he begun it..writing sub-teenage banalities to defend his Brexit deal..2023 will show it to be even more gullibly calamitous than it seemed at the time:
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1609082375522377728

    Lord David Frost is so relentlessly mediocre of thought and deed that it is almost compelling. How did such a non-entity, who failed spectacularly when given the one important job he ever had, become a standard bearer for the right? I guess, like all grifters, he knows what his audience wants to hear.

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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,441
    Cicero said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ousted Treasury mandarin Tom Scholar named in New Year honours https://on.ft.com/3WXkZ7I

    As is that irresponsible conspiracy theorist Richard Horton.

    It's as if they're trying to make the honours system into such a joke it has to be abolished.
    "The Order of the British Empire" already has something of a Dadaist spectacle about it.
    Be better getting an empire biscuit
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    eekeek Posts: 25,821
    One thing that will continue to damage the tory party over the next 18 months are stories like this one - even if you ignore the last 2 sentences - deaths due to ambulances failing to arrive for 3+ hours do the current Government no favours as at.

    https://twitter.com/minnierahman/status/1609092059767488512

    Minnie Rahman
    @minnierahman
    My dad died on Christmas Eve. He waited for an ambulance for 3 hours before it was too late. He was only 58. I’ve fought my whole life to stop this kind of thing from happening. I admit defeat. It’s over. We’ve lost. The Tories have what they wanted.
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 16,223
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    Wouldn't the possibility of the weather putting folk off be a major plus for the Tories?
    Will that still apply now so much of their vote is elderly?
    Elderly but disproportionately signed up for postal votes.
  • Options
    Cicero said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ousted Treasury mandarin Tom Scholar named in New Year honours https://on.ft.com/3WXkZ7I

    As is that irresponsible conspiracy theorist Richard Horton.

    It's as if they're trying to make the honours system into such a joke it has to be abolished.
    "The Order of the British Empire" already has something of a Dadaist spectacle about it.
    The curse of Wikipedia, which invariably spells out awards in full. Fred Farnsbarns was appointed an Officer of the Order of the British Empire sounds both more ridiculous and more sinister than saying he was given an OBE.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902
    Somewhat illogical to say Sunak won't be PM by the end of next year but Johnson or Starmer won't be either as they are now the only realistic alternatives.

    In any case I don't expect a general election until Spring 2024 at the earliest and Sunak will still be PM at the end of 2023. Even in the unlikely event Boris replaced him it wouldn't be done until just before the general election campaign now if no narrowing of the polls.

    There is no desire amongst Tory MPs for Boris' more chaotic less competent government, only his charisma and electoral appeal might bring him back for an election campaign to save the furniture
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,303
    .@RishiSunak wants to pull off a 1992-style Major election victory.

    But as the polls point to a 1997-style Major election defeat, can he learn the right lessons from the boy from Brixton?

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/rishi-sunak-should-forget-margaret-thatcher-and-learn-lessons-instead-from-john-major-2057202
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902
    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    Major had he gone in 1995 would still have lost by a landslide, just got 2 fewer years as PM and Tory Cabinet ministers 2 fewer years in government and Tory backbenchers in marginal seats 2 fewer years of an MPs salary plus expenses
  • Options

    Cicero said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ousted Treasury mandarin Tom Scholar named in New Year honours https://on.ft.com/3WXkZ7I

    As is that irresponsible conspiracy theorist Richard Horton.

    It's as if they're trying to make the honours system into such a joke it has to be abolished.
    "The Order of the British Empire" already has something of a Dadaist spectacle about it.
    The curse of Wikipedia, which invariably spells out awards in full. Fred Farnsbarns was appointed an Officer of the Order of the British Empire sounds both more ridiculous and more sinister than saying he was given an OBE.
    Order of the BRUTISH Empire!

    [runs and hides]
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902
    Far right Freedom Party takes the lead in new Austrian poll.

    Social Democrats second and centre right incumbent Peoples' Party are third

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1608796422324817920?s=20&t=ALxNLCqeIOEBXB9nbHXXcw
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Two possible scenarios:

    Something magic happens giving the Conservatives a brief spurt of popularity and they cut and run. It would need something incredibly magic for that to happen, though.

    The strikes drag on and get worse, and the government goes to the country on "who governs Britain?" Not going to happen, because we all know the likely answer.
    The answer, as in 1974, will be "not you".
    The 'popular touch' - that emotional resonance with the public which is political gold dust because ordinary people like their politicians to have it. Not me - I prefer it if they don't - but I'm not an ordinary person. It's ordinary people who decide elections and they like the popular touch.

    Sunak doesn't have it. I thought he might, before he became PM, but now he is I can see that he doesn't. He's unworldly but in a Goldman Sachs partner, high cog in machine, rather than an entertainment superstar sort of way. He doesn't connect.

    This means barring something so unexpected as to be in the 'black swan' category he cannot turn things around for the Tories. They are out next time. They know this - so no early election.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,807
    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    and the government will move heaven and earth to come up with some sort of tax giveaway for the 2024 budget, dropping into pockets so that there is a "we have turned the corner" feeling come late summer. Desperate and surely doomed, but what else can they do?
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,474
    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
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    eekeek Posts: 25,821
    HYUFD said:

    Somewhat illogical to say Sunak won't be PM by the end of next year but Johnson or Starmer won't be either as they are now the only realistic alternatives.

    In any case I don't expect a general election until Spring 2024 at the earliest and Sunak will still be PM at the end of 2023. Even in the unlikely event Boris replaced him it wouldn't be done until just before the general election campaign now if no narrowing of the polls.

    There is no desire amongst Tory MPs for Boris' more chaotic less competent government, only his charisma and electoral appeal might bring him back for an election campaign to save the furniture

    HTF is Johnson a realistic alternative.

    It requires Sunak both resigning and not doing the sane approach of getting the Privileges Committee (whose chair was very recently knighted) to do the sane thing of banning Bozo long enough for a recall election to be called.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,793
    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    It won't be December 2024. It's not five years between GE. It's five year length for Parliament.
    As Parliament didn't 'return' until (I think) 17th December 2019, it gets to 16th December 2024 to sit.
    After that, there is the 25 working day delay until the election, putting it somewhere in late January of 2025 (I'm slightly confused as to whether 2nd January would count as a working day or not - its a bank holiday in Scotland so I assume it wouldn't). Wikipedia suggests the last possible date is 28th January 2025 which is a Tuesday. I assume Sunak wouldn't be THAT brave and realistically the last date would be the Thursday before.

    Major went the full five years (and a month) when he did April 1992 to May 1997.

    Now I'm not sure we've ever had a truly Christmas campaign. I'm not sure what that would look like. Instead of the stjohn crossword, would we be discussing where Ed Davey's photo op of him eating his Christmas dinner would be?
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    boulayboulay Posts: 4,502
    Off topic but I’ve just accidentally “off topic” a post whilst catching up on last night’s thread so apologies to mods and poster!
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,793
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Turkeys don’t want to get stuffed prematurely.
    Indeed. Somewhere between 50 and 250 Tory MPs are going to lose their jobs. Not only that but their spouses will lose their jobs too, their right to office expenses, travel and housing subsidy will end, as will anybody paying attention to what they say. It will be a financial disaster for most, only the odd rich one such as Sunak or Hunt or the Saj won't really feel the pain and 2 of those will suffer loss of office. The idea that the Conservative party is going to go for an early election is frankly nuts unless the polling changes out of all recognition.
    I agree. It's quite odd though that it appears that the public WANT a General Election (usually they don't), but of course few understand how one can be arranged.
    Maybe the respondents are simply going: "Last election 2019 - normal term length - 4 years - 2019 + 4 = 2023, oh, it'll be a General Election in May then......"?
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,807
    edited December 2022
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751

    Scott_xP said:

    Lord Frosty @DavidGHFrost ends the year as he begun it..writing sub-teenage banalities to defend his Brexit deal..2023 will show it to be even more gullibly calamitous than it seemed at the time:
    https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1609082375522377728

    Lord David Frost is so relentlessly mediocre of thought and deed that it is almost compelling. How did such a non-entity, who failed spectacularly when given the one important job he ever had, become a standard bearer for the right? I guess, like all grifters, he knows what his audience wants to hear.
    The ideas and values of the Brexity Right are tawdry therefore the people who emerge as leading lights in that space are likely to showcase this quality.
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    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    It'll be October 2024.

    Meanwhile, no visible sunrise this morning, latest one of the year notwithstanding
    I reckon so too. Another 18 months of zombie government.
    It might look like a zombie government, but it’s really masterful inaction. This government will, deliberately but without being so crass as to actually say it out loud, run everything down as much as they can, building on the damage they’ve done over the last 12 years. The idea is to leave a smoking wreckage for Labour. They longer the Tories remain in office, the more they can do and the harder it will be for Labour to repair. It’s spiteful and morally bankrupt but they’re Tories, so they don’t care.

    None of this will be made explicit, but just watch what they do. Happily let the NHS continue to decline, resist public sector wage demands, resist any kind of sanity in our dealings with the EU. Storing up problems for Labour. Assiduously salting the earth.

    If they can continue to antagonise Scot Nats whilst punting another referendum into the next parliament, that will be good too. So, if they do end up seceding, HYUFD can say it was a Labour government that let Scotland go, much like he burbles that it was a Labour government that let India go. Same goes with NI. This current iteration of the Tory Party doesn’t give a fig about Scotland or NI.

    They’ll continue to damage the country and, once in opposition, carp at Labour for not solving quickly enough the problems the Tories have created through their evolution to Little Englander isolationism.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Looks like today is going to be much less windy. That's unfortunate from the point of view of electricity generation.

    I don't think it makes much difference to the price we pay. We're still paying 32p per kwh yet according to national grid website they are paying us to use it....

  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,228
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.

    The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.

    If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.

  • Options
    IanB2 said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    and the government will move heaven and earth to come up with some sort of tax giveaway for the 2024 budget, dropping into pockets so that there is a "we have turned the corner" feeling come late summer. Desperate and surely doomed, but what else can they do?
    Tricky when they've already pencilled in tax rises to about 2028.
  • Options
    NkingNking Posts: 4
    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    Looks like today is going to be much less windy. That's unfortunate from the point of view of electricity generation.

    I don't think it makes much difference to the price we pay. We're still paying 32p per kwh yet according to national grid website they are paying us to use it....

    Apologies, updated to us paying 20p now.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,441
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,999
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    I’d be interested to read that.
    What’s you feeling on the separation between those of instinctively conservative temperament - caution about radical change and the overthrowing of institutions without good reason - and what now constitutes the right in UK politics ?
  • Options
    NkingNking Posts: 4
    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    Cant see anyone but the over 65s voting tory at the next election. The oldies are likely enough to save some of the southern shire seats
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,441
    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Fat chance they are as greedy and grasping and self seeking as the Tories.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,449
    I reckon Sunak might go to the polls in May or June 2024. That gives inflation time to falls significantly and maybe even go negative, returns the election to a time of year where people feel optimistic (not that it worked for Major) and catches Boris and his supporters on the hop before any last minute 2024 reverse coup.

    In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:

    https://twitter.com/twenseleers/status/1609127909628776448?s=46&t=qMKX5WcWB-ELhlI3B0kfWw

    Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.

    That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,348
    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    Good morning all.
    I suggest the legacy of this Tory government will be a greater acceptance of immigrants, such as Sunak, Patel and Braverman.
  • Options
    NkingNking Posts: 4
    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    I’d be interested to read that.
    What’s you feeling on the separation between those of instinctively conservative temperament - caution about radical change and the overthrowing of institutions without good reason - and what now constitutes the right in UK politics ?
    Whats interesting about the conservatives is the country has moved socially to the left under their rule with the rise of woke. Now as we know oldies arent generally woke but as they arent in the workplace maybe they havent noticed.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,449
    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    There is one thing - one thing only - the Cameron administration did that was potentially transformational and that was the mass scale auctioning of offshore wind permits.

    Of course this was largely Ed Davey’s doing, Cameron then “cut the green crap” once he got a majority in 2015 making this year’s fuel bills more expensive than they needed to be, and both coalition partners failed to invest in nuclear. But it’s something.
  • Options
    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    What is left of Cameron's legacy?

    Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.

    Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
  • Options
    NkingNking Posts: 4

    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    Good morning all.
    I suggest the legacy of this Tory government will be a greater acceptance of immigrants, such as Sunak, Patel and Braverman.
    Difficult one that. Most people are outwardly pc nowadays so if they are disturbed by having a pm of indian origin they wont say. Nevertheless recent polls showing the tories less than 20% show sunak is not improving the situation much.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,914
    eek said:

    One thing that will continue to damage the tory party over the next 18 months are stories like this one - even if you ignore the last 2 sentences - deaths due to ambulances failing to arrive for 3+ hours do the current Government no favours as at.

    https://twitter.com/minnierahman/status/1609092059767488512

    Minnie Rahman
    @minnierahman
    My dad died on Christmas Eve. He waited for an ambulance for 3 hours before it was too late. He was only 58. I’ve fought my whole life to stop this kind of thing from happening. I admit defeat. It’s over. We’ve lost. The Tories have what they wanted.

    It's no consolation to anyone but these problems seem to be happening everywhere. According to the French health union, 150 people died in December while waiting up to 8 hours on stretchers for treatment.

    https://www.lejdd.fr/Societe/urgences-au-moins-vingt-deces-en-decembre-a-cause-dune-trop-longue-attente-selon-un-syndicat-du-samu-4157349
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902
    RIP Pope Benedict XVI. Whatever controversies he had he was nonetheless a towering intellectual and figure of conservative Roman Catholicism. I remember seeing him in London in 2010 in his Pope mobile

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64107731
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,449

    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    What is left of Cameron's legacy?

    Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.

    Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
    Cameron’s main claim to credit is that he was better than May, who was better than Johnson, who in turn was better than Truss. With Sunak I think we’re back to May levels, but with a significantly worse cabinet.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751

    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    What is left of Cameron's legacy?

    Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.

    Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
    The lobbying thing changed my opinion of him as a person. Pre that I quite liked him. Now, not so much.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,914
    TimS said:

    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    What is left of Cameron's legacy?

    Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.

    Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
    Cameron’s main claim to credit is that he was better than May, who was better than Johnson, who in turn was better than Truss. With Sunak I think we’re back to May levels, but with a significantly worse cabinet.
    The May cabinet did include the likes of Chris Grayling and Andrea Leadsom.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,914
    kinabalu said:

    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    What is left of Cameron's legacy?

    Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.

    Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
    The lobbying thing changed my opinion of him as a person. Pre that I quite liked him. Now, not so much.
    Yes it was particularly tawdry and unsubtle.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,956
    HYUFD said:

    Somewhat illogical to say Sunak won't be PM by the end of next year but Johnson or Starmer won't be either as they are now the only realistic alternatives.

    In any case I don't expect a general election until Spring 2024 at the earliest and Sunak will still be PM at the end of 2023. Even in the unlikely event Boris replaced him it wouldn't be done until just before the general election campaign now if no narrowing of the polls.

    There is no desire amongst Tory MPs for Boris' more chaotic less competent government, only his charisma and electoral appeal might bring him back for an election campaign to save the furniture

    I wish you luck with that. A Johnson Honeymoon General Election victory.

    Anyway, an unfortunate analogy given Johnson's enthusiasm for the Lulu Lytle product.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 68,253

    Cicero said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Ousted Treasury mandarin Tom Scholar named in New Year honours https://on.ft.com/3WXkZ7I

    As is that irresponsible conspiracy theorist Richard Horton.

    It's as if they're trying to make the honours system into such a joke it has to be abolished.
    "The Order of the British Empire" already has something of a Dadaist spectacle about it.
    The curse of Wikipedia, which invariably spells out awards in full. Fred Farnsbarns was appointed an Officer of the Order of the British Empire sounds both more ridiculous and more sinister than saying he was given an OBE.
    Order of the BRUTISH Empire!

    [runs and hides]
    The only award he deserves is Order of the Brittas Empire.

    As in, an arrogant, unselfaware and incompetent twat trying to run things he's utterly incapable of understanding.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902
    malcolmg said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
    Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,348
    Nking said:

    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    Good morning all.
    I suggest the legacy of this Tory government will be a greater acceptance of immigrants, such as Sunak, Patel and Braverman.
    Difficult one that. Most people are outwardly pc nowadays so if they are disturbed by having a pm of indian origin they wont say. Nevertheless recent polls showing the tories less than 20% show sunak is not improving the situation much.
    Inclined to agree. Yes, some people will be quietly opposed, and if they are Tory activists will find other things to do during the campaign. However, it might bring a new breed of activists to the Conservative party.

    And welcome to our new contributor,Nking!
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Two possible scenarios:

    Something magic happens giving the Conservatives a brief spurt of popularity and they cut and run. It would need something incredibly magic for that to happen, though.

    The strikes drag on and get worse, and the government goes to the country on "who governs Britain?" Not going to happen, because we all know the likely answer.
    The answer, as in 1974, will be "not you".
    The 'popular touch' - that emotional resonance with the public which is political gold dust because ordinary people like their politicians to have it. Not me - I prefer it if they don't - but I'm not an ordinary person. It's ordinary people who decide elections and they like the popular touch.

    Sunak doesn't have it. I thought he might, before he became PM, but now he is I can see that he doesn't. He's unworldly but in a Goldman Sachs partner, high cog in machine, rather than an entertainment superstar sort of way. He doesn't connect.

    This means barring something so unexpected as to be in the 'black swan' category he cannot turn things around for the Tories. They are out next time. They know this - so no early election.
    The Tories should have picked Penny Morduant, then?
  • Options
    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    Nking said:

    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    Good morning all.
    I suggest the legacy of this Tory government will be a greater acceptance of immigrants, such as Sunak, Patel and Braverman.
    Difficult one that. Most people are outwardly pc nowadays so if they are disturbed by having a pm of indian origin they wont say. Nevertheless recent polls showing the tories less than 20% show sunak is not improving the situation much.
    And welcome to our new contributor,Nking!
    Who, for whatever reason, has now been banned.
  • Options

    Nking said:

    Nking said:

    IanB2 said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    It would be worth a thread. We had the Tories for 18 years, Labour for 13 years, then the Tories (with a little help at the beginning) for what will likely be 14 years. So the likelihood is, if not their death, that we won't have the Tories in again for at least a decade. The big question is whether Labour has the wider vision to change to a fairer voting system during that decade....
    Compared to the previous tory administrations of Thatcher and Major this one has been useless. Like her or hate her you cant deny Thatcher transformed the country. Blair did too in his own way. What is Camerons or Mays legacy other than a brexit they didnt want.
    Good morning all.
    I suggest the legacy of this Tory government will be a greater acceptance of immigrants, such as Sunak, Patel and Braverman.
    Difficult one that. Most people are outwardly pc nowadays so if they are disturbed by having a pm of indian origin they wont say. Nevertheless recent polls showing the tories less than 20% show sunak is not improving the situation much.
    Inclined to agree. Yes, some people will be quietly opposed, and if they are Tory activists will find other things to do during the campaign. However, it might bring a new breed of activists to the Conservative party.

    And welcome to our new contributor,Nking!
    He appears to have already been banned...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902
    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.

    The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.

    If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.

    Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.

    There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    RIP Pope Benedict XVI. Whatever controversies he had he was nonetheless a towering intellectual and figure of conservative Roman Catholicism. I remember seeing him in London in 2010 in his Pope mobile

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64107731

    But did he remember seeing you?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,999
    It would be a fine example of poetic justice if this account is true.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/31/greta-thunberg-andrew-tate-tweet
    … Thunberg’s takedown clearly stung Tate, who 10 hours later tweeted out a pompous video in which he tried to reassert his masculinity and status by blathering on in a dressing gown, with a cigar and a pizza box as props. Not long after that, he and his brother Tristan Tate were arrested by Romanian authorities in connection with appalling allegations of sex trafficking. Tate is a troll and a creep; he’s also alleged to be a pimp and rapist. Tate denies all wrongdoing...

    … He was hoping to promote himself with his sneer at Thunberg; he managed to raise his visibility just in time to make news of his arrest and the charges international news. By at least one account, his Romanian-brand pizza box in his video helped cue Romanian police to his location...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,902

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    sbjme19 said:

    Major went the full five years, hoping for something to turn up. I don't think that will repeat, December's always dodgy, although in 2019 the weather didn't put people off, I think it'd have been different this year.
    I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.

    It'll be October 2024.

    Meanwhile, no visible sunrise this morning, latest one of the year notwithstanding
    I reckon so too. Another 18 months of zombie government.
    It might look like a zombie government, but it’s really masterful inaction. This government will, deliberately but without being so crass as to actually say it out loud, run everything down as much as they can, building on the damage they’ve done over the last 12 years. The idea is to leave a smoking wreckage for Labour. They longer the Tories remain in office, the more they can do and the harder it will be for Labour to repair. It’s spiteful and morally bankrupt but they’re Tories, so they don’t care.

    None of this will be made explicit, but just watch what they do. Happily let the NHS continue to decline, resist public sector wage demands, resist any kind of sanity in our dealings with the EU. Storing up problems for Labour. Assiduously salting the earth.

    If they can continue to antagonise Scot Nats whilst punting another referendum into the next parliament, that will be good too. So, if they do end up seceding, HYUFD can say it was a Labour government that let Scotland go, much like he burbles that it was a Labour government that let India go. Same goes with NI. This current iteration of the Tory Party doesn’t give a fig about Scotland or NI.

    They’ll continue to damage the country and, once in opposition, carp at Labour for not solving quickly enough the problems the Tories have created through their evolution to Little Englander isolationism.
    If Labour allow an indyref2 that is their problem to win it, the Tories are refusing one and respecting the once in a generation 2014 vote as the Supreme Court confirmed the UK government can do.

    If Scotland did go if a Labour government granted an indyref2 and lost it then the Conservatives would
    instantly become an English Nationalist party overnight to take as hard a line with the SNP and Edinburgh government as Brussels took with London after the Brexit vote
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,079
    Morning all :)

    After the last three years, everyone should realise predicting the next 12 months in politics is the ultimate mug's game.

    And yet we still do it - I'd rather try and figure out what's happening at Newbury this year than worrying about Westminster next year.

    However, a thought or two - the local elections in May will be of even more significance than usual. Mostly but not exclusively in rural and suburban England, both "Walls" will be tested. In 2019, the Conservatives took a beating at the equivalent polls losing over 1300 seats but Labour too had a small net loss with the LDs and Independents/Residents being the big winners.

    You might expect from the polls the Conservatives to go backwards again but Labour to make the big advances so looking at Labour to gain majority control of Bolton and Wirral and we'll see if Conservative majority control at Solihull and Walsall might be threatened (only third-up polls so probably not).

    There are any number of potentially interesting contests - South Gloucestershire, West Berkshire, Windsor & Maidenhead to name but three where small Conservative majorities could be threatened.

    The point is I'd be looking at Labour gains more than Conservative losses - if Starmer can translate poll ratings into local election gains, he's a step nearer translating those same poll ratings into Westminster gains and show Labour is not just competitive in England but ahead and gaining strongly.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,348
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
    Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
    Are you sure about that? Charles University politics I mean?
  • Options
    Andrew Bridgen going full on now against the covid vax

    By suppressing the evidence of the harms caused by the mRNA vaccines the MSM have sealed their own fate. The public will never believe anything from them again. It’s the end of these mouthpieces of big Pharma and the super wealthy elite. This is the end of the controlled media.

    12:33 PM · Dec 28, 2022

    https://twitter.com/ABridgen/status/1608078600061730817?s=20&t=TSdbsPs3fp4ECkP-cdfYyQ
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,956
    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    What fundamental changes do you forsee under the new "King". He will not be a patch on his mother , is an aloof pompous full of himself arse and is a money grubber, only fools and village idiots will cheer. A Tory for certain.
    Charles was a member of the Labour Party at University. He would almost certainly vote Starmer Labour or LD or Green at the next election if he had a vote, though he might be a bit more likely to vote for Sunak than Boris
    Is there any of that post you didn't dream up?
  • Options
    John Stockton now thinks ‘thousands’ of athletes may have died from the vaccine “I had the proof in my hands, the piece of paper with the names…I think it’s in the thousands now. Don’t quote me on that one,I’m not saying 1,000,but it might be. It’s a big number”

    https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1608619787449663491?s=20&t=TSdbsPs3fp4ECkP-cdfYyQ
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    In other news the surviving turkeys voted to have another Christmas early.

    Not going to happen.

    Two possible scenarios:

    Something magic happens giving the Conservatives a brief spurt of popularity and they cut and run. It would need something incredibly magic for that to happen, though.

    The strikes drag on and get worse, and the government goes to the country on "who governs Britain?" Not going to happen, because we all know the likely answer.
    The answer, as in 1974, will be "not you".
    The 'popular touch' - that emotional resonance with the public which is political gold dust because ordinary people like their politicians to have it. Not me - I prefer it if they don't - but I'm not an ordinary person. It's ordinary people who decide elections and they like the popular touch.

    Sunak doesn't have it. I thought he might, before he became PM, but now he is I can see that he doesn't. He's unworldly but in a Goldman Sachs partner, high cog in machine, rather than an entertainment superstar sort of way. He doesn't connect.

    This means barring something so unexpected as to be in the 'black swan' category he cannot turn things around for the Tories. They are out next time. They know this - so no early election.
    The Tories should have picked Penny Morduant, then?
    For party over country, ie purely with the next GE in mind, probably yes imo. Or - better still - stayed with Johnson. My fingers felt funny typing that but I think it's the case. Johnson was best placed to minimize the scale of the coming defeat.
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,314
    Take your anti-vaxx conspiracy nonsense elsewhere before you start bleating on about 'globalists' please
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,999

    Andrew Bridgen going full on now against the covid vax

    By suppressing the evidence of the harms caused by the mRNA vaccines the MSM have sealed their own fate. The public will never believe anything from them again. It’s the end of these mouthpieces of big Pharma and the super wealthy elite. This is the end of the controlled media.

    12:33 PM · Dec 28, 2022

    https://twitter.com/ABridgen/status/1608078600061730817?s=20&t=TSdbsPs3fp4ECkP-cdfYyQ

    Hard to say with Bridgen whether it’s just immense stupidity, or a cynical and desperate attempt to resuscitate his political career.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 13,079
    HYUFD said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cicero said:

    Sean_F said:

    The government won’t want to hold an election while inflation is running ahead of pay increases.

    By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.

    I don´t think any of that will make a difference. The voters just want to strangle the Tories regardless. Indeed, I am beginning to wonder if, after the past seven years of stunning incompetence and arrogance, the demographic millstone of older Tory voters dying off, and the fundamental changes coming under the new King, that we might even be looking at the "strange death of Tory England".

    A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.

    Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
    Well it’s not going to get them a fifth term. But, it may well mitigate the defeat.

    The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.

    If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.

    Indeed, even now the Tories are on 20 to 30% of the vote ie no worse than Labour were in 1983 and 1987 or 2010 and they didn't disappear and not much different to what Major got in 1997 either.

    There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
    The question isn't whether the Conservative Party "disappears" or not - nature abhors a vacuum and however competent or otherwise the next Government turns out, there will always be those ready to oppose it.

    The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?

    One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,751

    Andrew Bridgen going full on now against the covid vax

    By suppressing the evidence of the harms caused by the mRNA vaccines the MSM have sealed their own fate. The public will never believe anything from them again. It’s the end of these mouthpieces of big Pharma and the super wealthy elite. This is the end of the controlled media.

    12:33 PM · Dec 28, 2022

    https://twitter.com/ABridgen/status/1608078600061730817?s=20&t=TSdbsPs3fp4ECkP-cdfYyQ

    Oh dear. Is he positioning to lead the British Alt Right? There is an opportunity, I suppose.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,999
    Noting this morning’s commendably active moderation, I’d just like to say what exemplary musicians Radiohead are.
This discussion has been closed.