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Ipsos 2023 poll: There’ll be an election & Sunak won’t survive – politicalbetting.com
Ipsos 2023 poll: There’ll be an election & Sunak won’t survive – politicalbetting.com
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Ipsos 2023 poll: There’ll be an election & Sunak won’t survive – politicalbetting.com
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On balance I think both those two leading opinions are right. I narrowly think an election will happen in 2023, in which case Sunak is toast. I know the mechanisms are not in place in Parliament YET for a 2023 election but I still think it may happen.
And if it doesn't, it will be no later than October 2024 with Spring 2024 the more likely.
The Conservatives will be even more slaughtered, including by the media, if they tried to drag this into early 2025.
Wishing for an election doesn’t make it more likely there will be one.
Not going to happen.
Contrary to IRS regulations they did not even begin to audit his returns until 2019, after he had left office. Every other President in recent times has had annual audit whilst in office. It is another clear and vivid example of how Trump was able to corrupt and pervert the US Federal system to his own political and financial advantage. American democracy was seriously imperilled by Trump, January 6th was just one example.
Something magic happens giving the Conservatives a brief spurt of popularity and they cut and run. It would need something incredibly magic for that to happen, though.
The strikes drag on and get worse, and the government goes to the country on "who governs Britain?" Not going to happen, because we all know the likely answer.
I don't think it'll be 2023 though, unless something completely unexpected turns Tory fortunes around.
Meanwhile, no visible sunrise this morning, latest one of the year notwithstanding
Negates most of the official campaign too as get returned weeks earlier than other votes.
I'd be pissed off if I'd backed Leicester to beat Liverpool given Leicester's players scored three goals and they lost 2-1.
Edited extra bit: on-topic: unlikely to be an election next year. Where's the advantage for the Conservatives?
I think that Rodgers is falling out with our players and owners again, like at the beginning of the season.
Our next match is Fulham at home on Tuesday, fans could get restive. They were booing against Newcastle at half time and left early on Boxing Day.
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1609082375522377728
It's as if they're trying to make the honours system into such a joke it has to be abolished.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/31/just-nine-passengers-detained-at-heathrow-during-border-force-strike
By 2024, pay increases should be running ahead of inflation.
https://twitter.com/minnierahman/status/1609092059767488512
Minnie Rahman
@minnierahman
My dad died on Christmas Eve. He waited for an ambulance for 3 hours before it was too late. He was only 58. I’ve fought my whole life to stop this kind of thing from happening. I admit defeat. It’s over. We’ve lost. The Tories have what they wanted.
In any case I don't expect a general election until Spring 2024 at the earliest and Sunak will still be PM at the end of 2023. Even in the unlikely event Boris replaced him it wouldn't be done until just before the general election campaign now if no narrowing of the polls.
There is no desire amongst Tory MPs for Boris' more chaotic less competent government, only his charisma and electoral appeal might bring him back for an election campaign to save the furniture
But as the polls point to a 1997-style Major election defeat, can he learn the right lessons from the boy from Brixton?
https://inews.co.uk/opinion/rishi-sunak-should-forget-margaret-thatcher-and-learn-lessons-instead-from-john-major-2057202
[runs and hides]
Social Democrats second and centre right incumbent Peoples' Party are third
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1608796422324817920?s=20&t=ALxNLCqeIOEBXB9nbHXXcw
Sunak doesn't have it. I thought he might, before he became PM, but now he is I can see that he doesn't. He's unworldly but in a Goldman Sachs partner, high cog in machine, rather than an entertainment superstar sort of way. He doesn't connect.
This means barring something so unexpected as to be in the 'black swan' category he cannot turn things around for the Tories. They are out next time. They know this - so no early election.
A post Conservative Britain is becoming a real possibility, and the short term ups and downs of this Parliament are not so important as the massive political cyclical change that may well lie ahead.
Perhaps I should do a thread on that...
It requires Sunak both resigning and not doing the sane approach of getting the Privileges Committee (whose chair was very recently knighted) to do the sane thing of banning Bozo long enough for a recall election to be called.
As Parliament didn't 'return' until (I think) 17th December 2019, it gets to 16th December 2024 to sit.
After that, there is the 25 working day delay until the election, putting it somewhere in late January of 2025 (I'm slightly confused as to whether 2nd January would count as a working day or not - its a bank holiday in Scotland so I assume it wouldn't). Wikipedia suggests the last possible date is 28th January 2025 which is a Tuesday. I assume Sunak wouldn't be THAT brave and realistically the last date would be the Thursday before.
Major went the full five years (and a month) when he did April 1992 to May 1997.
Now I'm not sure we've ever had a truly Christmas campaign. I'm not sure what that would look like. Instead of the stjohn crossword, would we be discussing where Ed Davey's photo op of him eating his Christmas dinner would be?
Maybe the respondents are simply going: "Last election 2019 - normal term length - 4 years - 2019 + 4 = 2023, oh, it'll be a General Election in May then......"?
None of this will be made explicit, but just watch what they do. Happily let the NHS continue to decline, resist public sector wage demands, resist any kind of sanity in our dealings with the EU. Storing up problems for Labour. Assiduously salting the earth.
If they can continue to antagonise Scot Nats whilst punting another referendum into the next parliament, that will be good too. So, if they do end up seceding, HYUFD can say it was a Labour government that let Scotland go, much like he burbles that it was a Labour government that let India go. Same goes with NI. This current iteration of the Tory Party doesn’t give a fig about Scotland or NI.
They’ll continue to damage the country and, once in opposition, carp at Labour for not solving quickly enough the problems the Tories have created through their evolution to Little Englander isolationism.
Coming right after his great uncle Pele passed away, it’s a hard blow.
The rest is wishful thinking. 47% voted for centre right parties in 2019. They’re not just going to vanish. In most of the country, Con v Lab is the only show in town.
If the Conservative Party vanishes, it will be because another party on the right replaces it.
What’s you feeling on the separation between those of instinctively conservative temperament - caution about radical change and the overthrowing of institutions without good reason - and what now constitutes the right in UK politics ?
In more positive and totally unsurprising news the dominant Covid variants in China are old ones we’ve already had:
https://twitter.com/twenseleers/status/1609127909628776448?s=46&t=qMKX5WcWB-ELhlI3B0kfWw
Unsurprising because they have an immune naive population who are just as susceptible to the basic old omicron as they would be to a fancy new variant.
That’s not so say that the next lineage won’t come out of China of course, but they have some immunological catching up to do first.
I suggest the legacy of this Tory government will be a greater acceptance of immigrants, such as Sunak, Patel and Braverman.
Of course this was largely Ed Davey’s doing, Cameron then “cut the green crap” once he got a majority in 2015 making this year’s fuel bills more expensive than they needed to be, and both coalition partners failed to invest in nuclear. But it’s something.
Gay marriage won't get undone. But a fair bit of the rest is being nixed by his own successors. The big rise in tax thresholds is being unwound. The original vision of academies as free standing schools has morphed into multi-academy chains. He ditched the green agenda himself. The Conservatives continue to bang on about Europe.
Shame. He seemed like a nice chap.
https://www.lejdd.fr/Societe/urgences-au-moins-vingt-deces-en-decembre-a-cause-dune-trop-longue-attente-selon-un-syndicat-du-samu-4157349
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64107731
Anyway, an unfortunate analogy given Johnson's enthusiasm for the Lulu Lytle product.
As in, an arrogant, unselfaware and incompetent twat trying to run things he's utterly incapable of understanding.
And welcome to our new contributor,Nking!
There is no party on the right likely to replace them despite Farage's rants just as the SDP and LDs never replaced Labour either as the main non Tory party in 1983 or 2010
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/31/greta-thunberg-andrew-tate-tweet
… Thunberg’s takedown clearly stung Tate, who 10 hours later tweeted out a pompous video in which he tried to reassert his masculinity and status by blathering on in a dressing gown, with a cigar and a pizza box as props. Not long after that, he and his brother Tristan Tate were arrested by Romanian authorities in connection with appalling allegations of sex trafficking. Tate is a troll and a creep; he’s also alleged to be a pimp and rapist. Tate denies all wrongdoing...
… He was hoping to promote himself with his sneer at Thunberg; he managed to raise his visibility just in time to make news of his arrest and the charges international news. By at least one account, his Romanian-brand pizza box in his video helped cue Romanian police to his location...
If Scotland did go if a Labour government granted an indyref2 and lost it then the Conservatives would
instantly become an English Nationalist party overnight to take as hard a line with the SNP and Edinburgh government as Brussels took with London after the Brexit vote
After the last three years, everyone should realise predicting the next 12 months in politics is the ultimate mug's game.
And yet we still do it - I'd rather try and figure out what's happening at Newbury this year than worrying about Westminster next year.
However, a thought or two - the local elections in May will be of even more significance than usual. Mostly but not exclusively in rural and suburban England, both "Walls" will be tested. In 2019, the Conservatives took a beating at the equivalent polls losing over 1300 seats but Labour too had a small net loss with the LDs and Independents/Residents being the big winners.
You might expect from the polls the Conservatives to go backwards again but Labour to make the big advances so looking at Labour to gain majority control of Bolton and Wirral and we'll see if Conservative majority control at Solihull and Walsall might be threatened (only third-up polls so probably not).
There are any number of potentially interesting contests - South Gloucestershire, West Berkshire, Windsor & Maidenhead to name but three where small Conservative majorities could be threatened.
The point is I'd be looking at Labour gains more than Conservative losses - if Starmer can translate poll ratings into local election gains, he's a step nearer translating those same poll ratings into Westminster gains and show Labour is not just competitive in England but ahead and gaining strongly.
By suppressing the evidence of the harms caused by the mRNA vaccines the MSM have sealed their own fate. The public will never believe anything from them again. It’s the end of these mouthpieces of big Pharma and the super wealthy elite. This is the end of the controlled media.
12:33 PM · Dec 28, 2022
https://twitter.com/ABridgen/status/1608078600061730817?s=20&t=TSdbsPs3fp4ECkP-cdfYyQ
https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1608619787449663491?s=20&t=TSdbsPs3fp4ECkP-cdfYyQ
The Conservatives were however wholly ineffective in opposition from 1997 to 2005 - we all know that. Assuming they go down to defeat in 2024 or early 2025, how long will it take the Conservatives to stop blaming the electorate for their defeat and how long will it take for them to work out a way back to power?
One thing the Party has in its favour is "One Nation" conservatism which has proven surprisingly resilient and adaptable and the challenge will be to adapt that philosophy for the mid-2030s or early 2040s. Between that and weariness with Labour, the Conservatives will be back sometime somehow.