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Labour STILL not odds-on for an overall majority – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,151
    tlg86 said:

    I don’t think @Casino_Royale needs to worry too much. My guess is that Labour won’t do very much at all. The VAT on school fees thing will affect too many Labour people. It won’t see the light of day.

    A possible outcome of the VAT on private schools fees is that it ends up a bit like the ban on fox hunting. There is a big, public, battle over imposing VAT on the fees of private schools that don't qualify as charities. The purpose of this will be to convince the Labour grass roots that Labour is taking action on entrenched privilege, and to provoke the Tories into opposition, so that they can be painted as on the side of entrenched privilege - just as with fox-hunting they could be painted as being on the side of ripping poor, cute, foxes into bloody shreds.

    In the end, not much will change. The vast majority of private schools will find that they can tick enough boxes to qualify as educational charities - a possible hilarious outcome might be that, as a result of this can of worms being opened, a portion of fees might be classed as donations and qualify for gift aid, but only for genuine educational charities, of course - while perhaps some will decide it's possible to charge the extra to cover the VAT rather than go through the trouble of qualifying for charitable status.

    Just as fox hunting was banned, but, well, still happens, so private school fees will have their charitable exemption from VAT abolished, bur most fees will end up not being liable for VAT.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    Knighthoods for Chris Bryant and Julian Lewis. I can never figure out how some MPs get gongs and some do not. Sometimes there's a reasonably prominent position held, or an obvious payoff for a dinosaur on the backbenches, but it still seems fairly random.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,717
    edited December 2022
    And I see its a fancy gong, a GCB, for Tom Scholar, famously sacked from the Treasury by Kwarteng and Truss. The citation says he was 'an inspirational leader of the Treasury', though I guess those two disagreed.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,480
    kle4 said:

    Knighthoods for Chris Bryant and Julian Lewis. I can never figure out how some MPs get gongs and some do not. Sometimes there's a reasonably prominent position held, or an obvious payoff for a dinosaur on the backbenches, but it still seems fairly random.

    Yes, it’s pretty random.
    Having said that, Bryant is probably one of the best backbenchers of 2022, and has been consistently good for a number of years now.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,480
    Small town Iowa police chief charged with lying to ATF to get 90 machine guns for department with 3 officers
    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/12/15/iowa-police-chief-bradley-wendt-atf-90-machine-guns/10906567002/

    All fully automatic, including an M60 for his personal Humvee.
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    pigeon said:

    tlg86 said:

    I don’t think @Casino_Royale needs to worry too much. My guess is that Labour won’t do very much at all. The VAT on school fees thing will affect too many Labour people. It won’t see the light of day.

    Au contraire, going after private education is exactly the kind of tokenism that one would expect from the Labour Party, should it transpire that it's mainly after ministerial cars rather than trying to drive significant change. It's a symbolic and headline-grabbing means of spanking rich people and raising pin money for schools (an amount that will sound huge to average Joe Public, but make virtually no difference to the quality of state education,) whilst doing bugger all to redistribute from rich to poor and nothing at all to upset the vast over-55 middle-class homeowner demographic.

    You're not going to get anywhere changing this country, except through taxing incomes less and assets a whole lot more. Any manifesto that fails to do this is simply reshuffling them ol' deckchairs. Using irrelevant fringe policies - whether it's announcing you're going to appoint a Clandestine Channel Threat Commander, or making parents with kids at Eton pay VAT on their fees - is just a tried and tested means to disguise the fact that you are a useless do-nothing. And therefore very useful to useless do-nothings.
    Labour upper middle class voters are more likely to ensure they live in good catchment areas so they can send their kids to good state schools, rather than send their kids to private schools. This will hit Tory voters far more.
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    A PhD supervisor fully plagiarised their former PhD student dissertation. His French University found him guilty. The sanction? They can't move up the salary scale anymore for the next two years. That's it.

    https://twitter.com/FerryDanini/status/1608776287530930181
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2022
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Knighthoods for Chris Bryant and Julian Lewis. I can never figure out how some MPs get gongs and some do not. Sometimes there's a reasonably prominent position held, or an obvious payoff for a dinosaur on the backbenches, but it still seems fairly random.

    Yes, it’s pretty random.
    Having said that, Bryant is probably one of the best backbenchers of 2022, and has been consistently good for a number of years now.
    Is he? He is very good at getting himself in the media, in the fact normally the first to rush to have a rant, but also ended up making quite a few false claims. But what actual real change has come about from his grandstanding?

    I look at somebody like Stella Creasy campaign against pay day lenders as an example of being an excellent backbencher (at the time). Identified a problem, campaigned tirelessly on it, resulted in real change.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,806

    EPG said:

    ping said:

    I do worry about the evisceration of local journalism, tho.

    It’s a total market failure. If I were in government, I’d reengineer the BBC and make its main remit local news.

    Every town should have its own full time BBC reporter.

    It's not really a market failure, in the sense that nobody wants to pay for local news, and they aren't getting it either. Perhaps people need it, like kids need to take medicine, but that's called paternalism rather than market failure.
    However, some of the benefit of local news accrues to all of us, whether we consume it ourselves or not.

    Politicians who know they are scrutinised tend to behave better than ones who aren't. Old school local papers were limited and flawed in how they did this but they were a lot better than what we have now. Would better local journalism reduce the frequency of fiascos like Thurrock? You'd have to think so.

    Besides the other thing that has screwed local papers is the loss of classified ads. (Often the ads provided the money and the news was the excuse to make people buy the papers. Crazy, but it seemed to work.)

    Not sure how we fund things now the various elements have blown apart. I buy the Romford Recorder, because I'm a girly swot. But at £1.10, I'm not quite sure it's worth it.
    Discovered this the other day, which may somewhat break my grudging relationship with Yorkshire Live and the ilk.

    https://huddersfieldhub.co.uk/who-we-are/

    It seems a subset of local news, but a useful one, so I hope it flourishes.

    As with the Local Democracy Reporting Service, which I think the Been amongst others put a few quid into.

    Of course the whole thing would be rendered unnecessary by a dozen Andrew Teales, alas I suspect he is wholly unique.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001

    pigeon said:

    tlg86 said:

    I don’t think @Casino_Royale needs to worry too much. My guess is that Labour won’t do very much at all. The VAT on school fees thing will affect too many Labour people. It won’t see the light of day.

    Au contraire, going after private education is exactly the kind of tokenism that one would expect from the Labour Party, should it transpire that it's mainly after ministerial cars rather than trying to drive significant change. It's a symbolic and headline-grabbing means of spanking rich people and raising pin money for schools (an amount that will sound huge to average Joe Public, but make virtually no difference to the quality of state education,) whilst doing bugger all to redistribute from rich to poor and nothing at all to upset the vast over-55 middle-class homeowner demographic.

    You're not going to get anywhere changing this country, except through taxing incomes less and assets a whole lot more. Any manifesto that fails to do this is simply reshuffling them ol' deckchairs. Using irrelevant fringe policies - whether it's announcing you're going to appoint a Clandestine Channel Threat Commander, or making parents with kids at Eton pay VAT on their fees - is just a tried and tested means to disguise the fact that you are a useless do-nothing. And therefore very useful to useless do-nothings.
    Labour upper middle class voters are more likely to ensure they live in good catchment areas so they can send their kids to good state schools, rather than send their kids to private schools. This will hit Tory voters far more.
    Are Tory fee-paying school parent voters prohibited by law from moving to good catchment areas?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,480
    Hmmm.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63805297
    … Cristiano Ronaldo has joined Saudi Arabian side Al Nassr on a deal that runs until 2025.

    The Portugal captain is a free agent after leaving Manchester United following a controversial interview in which he criticised the club.

    Ronaldo will reportedly receive the biggest football salary in history at more than £177m per year...
  • Options
    Nigelb said:

    Hmmm.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63805297
    … Cristiano Ronaldo has joined Saudi Arabian side Al Nassr on a deal that runs until 2025.

    The Portugal captain is a free agent after leaving Manchester United following a controversial interview in which he criticised the club.

    Ronaldo will reportedly receive the biggest football salary in history at more than £177m per year...

    Going to have to sell a hell of a lot of tickets and shirts.....
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,806
    Nigelb said:

    Small town Iowa police chief charged with lying to ATF to get 90 machine guns for department with 3 officers
    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/12/15/iowa-police-chief-bradley-wendt-atf-90-machine-guns/10906567002/

    All fully automatic, including an M60 for his personal Humvee.

    When you go caucus for the GOP, you gotta be prepared
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,596

    Nigelb said:

    Hmmm.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63805297
    … Cristiano Ronaldo has joined Saudi Arabian side Al Nassr on a deal that runs until 2025.

    The Portugal captain is a free agent after leaving Manchester United following a controversial interview in which he criticised the club.

    Ronaldo will reportedly receive the biggest football salary in history at more than £177m per year...

    Going to have to sell a hell of a lot of tickets and shirts.....
    No. Just oil.
  • Options

    Nigelb said:

    Hmmm.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63805297
    … Cristiano Ronaldo has joined Saudi Arabian side Al Nassr on a deal that runs until 2025.

    The Portugal captain is a free agent after leaving Manchester United following a controversial interview in which he criticised the club.

    Ronaldo will reportedly receive the biggest football salary in history at more than £177m per year...

    Going to have to sell a hell of a lot of tickets and shirts.....
    No. Just oil.
    Obviously, I was being facetious.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,480
    edited December 2022

    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    Knighthoods for Chris Bryant and Julian Lewis. I can never figure out how some MPs get gongs and some do not. Sometimes there's a reasonably prominent position held, or an obvious payoff for a dinosaur on the backbenches, but it still seems fairly random.

    Yes, it’s pretty random.
    Having said that, Bryant is probably one of the best backbenchers of 2022, and has been consistently good for a number of years now.
    Is he? He is very good at getting himself in the media, in the fact normally the first to rush to have a rant, but also ended up making quite a few false claims. But what actual real change has come about from his grandstanding?

    I look at somebody like Stella Creasy campaign against pay day lenders as an example of being an excellent backbencher (at the time). Identified a problem, campaigned tirelessly on it, resulted in real change.
    He’s been a dogged and pretty even handed chair of the Standards Committee. I think that matters, FWIW.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited December 2022
    Paging Leon.....

    ODE for Richard Horton – Editor in Chief of The Lancet, for services to health and medical journalism

    Would love to read what the committee had to say that it was ok despite all the previous scandals he has been involved with.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,538
    Janan Ganesh:

    "Sri Trat in Bangkok, Bavel in Los Angeles and Kudu in London stand out in a sublime year of dining. If I overspent on restaurants in 2022, it was to avenge all those pandemic-era claims that I wouldn’t get the chance again. Some of the terminal prognoses for nightlife (and for air travel, and for cities themselves) were written more in glee than in sorrow. Their authors wondered if modernity was worth the candle: if our species might not be happier living simply. A gentleman would forgive those nature-is-healing merchants. I demand show trials and the pillory.

    For the rest of us, there is more eating out to be done in 2023. And I am better qualified than most as a guide. Here, then, for the less seasoned diner, is what I look for in a restaurant."

    https://www.ft.com/content/2abcc482-c61f-44a7-81eb-95f9c7ad3fab
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,847
    Andy_JS said:

    Janan Ganesh:

    "Sri Trat in Bangkok, Bavel in Los Angeles and Kudu in London stand out in a sublime year of dining. If I overspent on restaurants in 2022, it was to avenge all those pandemic-era claims that I wouldn’t get the chance again. Some of the terminal prognoses for nightlife (and for air travel, and for cities themselves) were written more in glee than in sorrow. Their authors wondered if modernity was worth the candle: if our species might not be happier living simply. A gentleman would forgive those nature-is-healing merchants. I demand show trials and the pillory.

    For the rest of us, there is more eating out to be done in 2023. And I am better qualified than most as a guide. Here, then, for the less seasoned diner, is what I look for in a restaurant."

    https://www.ft.com/content/2abcc482-c61f-44a7-81eb-95f9c7ad3fab

    Ganesh is a superb stylist, but I fear he is tending to the over-ripe. If he doesn’t watch out he will go full Tyler Brûlé and end up a risible self-pastiche.
  • Options
    EPG said:

    pigeon said:

    tlg86 said:

    I don’t think @Casino_Royale needs to worry too much. My guess is that Labour won’t do very much at all. The VAT on school fees thing will affect too many Labour people. It won’t see the light of day.

    Au contraire, going after private education is exactly the kind of tokenism that one would expect from the Labour Party, should it transpire that it's mainly after ministerial cars rather than trying to drive significant change. It's a symbolic and headline-grabbing means of spanking rich people and raising pin money for schools (an amount that will sound huge to average Joe Public, but make virtually no difference to the quality of state education,) whilst doing bugger all to redistribute from rich to poor and nothing at all to upset the vast over-55 middle-class homeowner demographic.

    You're not going to get anywhere changing this country, except through taxing incomes less and assets a whole lot more. Any manifesto that fails to do this is simply reshuffling them ol' deckchairs. Using irrelevant fringe policies - whether it's announcing you're going to appoint a Clandestine Channel Threat Commander, or making parents with kids at Eton pay VAT on their fees - is just a tried and tested means to disguise the fact that you are a useless do-nothing. And therefore very useful to useless do-nothings.
    Labour upper middle class voters are more likely to ensure they live in good catchment areas so they can send their kids to good state schools, rather than send their kids to private schools. This will hit Tory voters far more.
    Are Tory fee-paying school parent voters prohibited by law from moving to good catchment areas?
    You know what I meant.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,538
    edited December 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Janan Ganesh:

    "Sri Trat in Bangkok, Bavel in Los Angeles and Kudu in London stand out in a sublime year of dining. If I overspent on restaurants in 2022, it was to avenge all those pandemic-era claims that I wouldn’t get the chance again. Some of the terminal prognoses for nightlife (and for air travel, and for cities themselves) were written more in glee than in sorrow. Their authors wondered if modernity was worth the candle: if our species might not be happier living simply. A gentleman would forgive those nature-is-healing merchants. I demand show trials and the pillory.

    For the rest of us, there is more eating out to be done in 2023. And I am better qualified than most as a guide. Here, then, for the less seasoned diner, is what I look for in a restaurant."

    https://www.ft.com/content/2abcc482-c61f-44a7-81eb-95f9c7ad3fab

    Ganesh is a superb stylist, but I fear he is tending to the over-ripe. If he doesn’t watch out he will go full Tyler Brûlé and end up a risible self-pastiche.
    I was thinking the same thing lol.
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    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,499
    Dr. Foxy - I have been lactose intolerant for many years. And, with experience, have not found it much of a problem, provided I take precautions. There is lactase-treated milk in every grocery store, and a few even have lactase-treated ice cream. I have not found any great problems with hard cheeses like cheddar, though I will admit that I am less inclined to try unfamiliar cheeses than I once was. I buy yogurt with active cultures and let the containers sit in the refrigerator for a couple of weeks, or longer, to allow the cultures to digest the lactose for me.

    I did once learn the hard way that some margarines contain whey, so I am more careful at reading labels than I once was.

    When I go out to eat and suspect there will be butter or milk in the ingredients of the meal, I take a lactose pill with me. (They ae widely available here, and inexpensive.)

    One problem I have not been able to solve completely: What to say when invited out for dinner by someone who doesn't know about my lactose problem.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,253
    edited December 2022

    New Thread

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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    tlg86 said:

    I don’t think @Casino_Royale needs to worry too much. My guess is that Labour won’t do very much at all. The VAT on school fees thing will affect too many Labour people. It won’t see the light of day.

    A possible outcome of the VAT on private schools fees is that it ends up a bit like the ban on fox hunting. There is a big, public, battle over imposing VAT on the fees of private schools that don't qualify as charities. The purpose of this will be to convince the Labour grass roots that Labour is taking action on entrenched privilege, and to provoke the Tories into opposition, so that they can be painted as on the side of entrenched privilege - just as with fox-hunting they could be painted as being on the side of ripping poor, cute, foxes into bloody shreds.

    In the end, not much will change. The vast majority of private schools will find that they can tick enough boxes to qualify as educational charities - a possible hilarious outcome might be that, as a result of this can of worms being opened, a portion of fees might be classed as donations and qualify for gift aid, but only for genuine educational charities, of course - while perhaps some will decide it's possible to charge the extra to cover the VAT rather than go through the trouble of qualifying for charitable status.

    Just as fox hunting was banned, but, well, still happens, so private school fees will have their charitable exemption from VAT abolished, bur most fees will end up not being liable for VAT.
    Over 50% of private schools are registered as businesses. Where people get confused is that around 80% of secondary school age children attend foundations that have charitable status. That number is however dropping rapidly as schools seek overseas investment to keep the lights on.

    There would be a certain irony if Labour’s policy led to more schools seeking to retain charitable status…
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    Paging Leon.....

    ODE for Richard Horton – Editor in Chief of The Lancet, for services to health and medical journalism

    Would love to read what the committee had to say that it was ok despite all the previous scandals he has been involved with.

    That is genuine fucking lunacy. The man’s published research he must have known was fraudulent, causing enormous damage, and defended it long past the time it was obvious what he was doing. It’s the equivalent of giving Alex Jones or David Irving a gong.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,849
    tlg86 said:

    I don’t think @Casino_Royale needs to worry too much. My guess is that Labour won’t do very much at all. The VAT on school fees thing will affect too many Labour people. It won’t see the light of day.

    For sure the champagne socialists will not change anything they like troughing far too much.
This discussion has been closed.