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Labour STILL not odds-on for an overall majority – politicalbetting.com
Labour STILL not odds-on for an overall majority – politicalbetting.com
Last night we had the worst poll for the Tories in decades and yet the betting markets have not reacted as can be seen in the chart showing movements in the general election overall majority betting market.
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If Pakistan do somehow lose surely Babar Azam is toast.
Sunak does need to sort out the strikes and boats pronto, though.
It's probably got to the stage now where a deal on the first is the least worst outcome, and he needs to send people home (with max publicity) on the latter.
The thing keeping the Tories up in the betting IMO is that Labour start a very long way back. Labour have to win a lot of seats to get a majority. Corbyn left Starmer a mountain to climb.
So there we have it. A balanced situation.
Lab 422 seats (+219)
Con 134 seats (-231)
SNP 54 seats (+6)
LD 16 seats (+5)
Labour majority of 194
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html
SNP 4%
PC 1%
N Ireland 3%
Misc others (Indys, UKIP etc) 1%
Rounding effect 2%
Largest party is now above 95%, I think.
Those who expect Starmer to charge left or right in government will be disappointed, I think. To win, Labour requires centre and some right of centre voters. Why would he commit electoral suicide straight out of the box?
I’ve always said that something like Orange Book LibDem policies would get 50-60% of the vote if party tribalism didn’t get in the way. Well, they do, but divided between the tribes.
EDIT: all three major parties have smashed up their voting coalitions in recent years. Starmer seems to be inheriting the “quiet with honour” majority (pace Cicero)
Quite an amazing achievement.
https://mobile.twitter.com/marathon_man365
Lab 49%
Con 20%
Ref 10%
LD 10%
Grn 7%
Rest of South
Lab 44%
Con 28%
LD 12%
Grn 8%
Ref 7%
Midlands and Wales
Lab 44%
Con 21%
Grn 10%
Ref 10%
LD 9%
PC 4%
North
Lab 55%
Con 15%
Grn 10%
Ref 8%
LD 5%
Scotland
SNP 62%
Lab 18%
Grn 6%
LD 5%
Con 4%
Ref 2%
(PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,169; 28 December)
Time to give the Lib Dems a leg up.
PC 1%
oth 3%
https://peoplepolling.org/tables/202212_GBN_W52_full.pdf
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FlNpPoTWIAAWRpX?format=jpg&name=900x900
Edit: how do I embed an image then?
If I was Labour, I'd also be concerned that some of the new MPs might not be adequately vetted. There's little excuse for that, but it seems all parties don't do a good job with the seats they don't expect to win.
https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1608751117986308096?s=20&t=vaauIZw5HBQ9kacXEgNRVw
If such abject failure is rewarded, we’re in a dire position. There has to be change.
"Today, we are celebrating the world's longest box slide 🎉. The 12,600-tonne, Marston Box bridge slid a record, 165 metres into position over the M42"
https://mobile.twitter.com/HS2ltd/status/1608471904003805188
Things like this make me love civil engineering.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election
In France of course Le Pen did better with under 30s than over 60s in May
In both UK & US, it’s not just that Millennials aren’t voting conservative because they’re young.
Every previous generation grew more conservative with age, but Millennials are not playing ball.
My column: https://enterprise-sharing.ft.com/redeem/a0c1c1b2-eda9-48b6-890a-2bac5ee6a9ac
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1608746369505976323
Worth reading whole thread "it's not just housing":
In summary:
• Parties on the right used to rely on people ageing into conservatism. Millennials are different, likely due to:
• Coming of age during econ and home-ownership crises -> forming more left-wing views
• Using culture war politics on the most educated generation ever
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1608759052301135873
I'm far from convinced by this latest poll - one could argue the Conservatives last polled in the high teens in May 2019 and won an election majority six months later. Back then, you had the Brexit party in the mid 20s so add the two together and you got pretty close to what the Conservatives got in December 2019.
This time Reform is on 8% so the "centre right" is on 27% which is parlous indeed.
I'd also be wanting to look at the data and especially the numbers in England because that's where the election will be won or lost. Is Labour tearing chunks out of the previous Conservative vote? The headline numbers say an 18% swing but the changes on the last PP poll are mainly the Greens going up three points into third place.
It doesn't look good for the Conservatives and it's perhaps a sign of the party's plight some of their most ardent supporters on here are frantically searching for reasons to stay loyal.
Sunak, as Major, will hobble on and hope, pace Micawber, something will turn up. Falling inflation may help a little to be fair but we forget how strong the economy was in 1997 and how much good it did the ruling party.
I'll be looking at the locals in May for some indication of how the tide is flowing. The Conservatives had a bad night at the equivalent round in 2019 but Labour also lost seats. Given a lot of the seats up are in rural and suburban England, it will be indicative of the fortunes of all parties.
I'm happy for there to be a Labour government (and think there should be a GE soon), but I don't want any party to have a stonking 100+ majority. I just don't think such governments are very good. Then again, I'm not a fan of small majorities either.
The danger is that, in the meantime, he will be painted as "weak" by Labour in the way that John Major was. That woud be terminal to his chances. Therefore I suspect he will hold out in the face of the strikes. Better to trade some short-term unpopularity in order to gain a reputation for toughness and "doing the right thing" for the country. This might also explain Raab's continued presence in government.
Now, Rishi could drag the Conservative ratings up. Ukraine turns out nice, the economy surprises on the upside, quiet competence secures wins on boats and unions. Or a black swan (France declares war on the UK and Rishi triumphs, that sort of thing). It's not impossible.
But it's more likely to go the other way. Partly because, absent black swans, the reputation of PMs always declines over time. It has to, because their job involves saying no to people. (Which is why Boris was so unsuitable as PM.) But there's also the Warren Buffet aphorism about what happens to the reputation of a brilliant manager who takes over a failing company.
In France too more under 30s voted for Le Pen and her far right culture wars over Macron in May than over 60s.
Looks like FT had an article and didn't check all the data to ensure it matched. Not all of it does
However they also remove any first incumbency benefit from most seats so there is a significant downside as well.
And many people are going to see their local Tory MP and ask what exactly has he/she actually done for us...
The real risk for us and the country is the Tories sneaking back in. There needs to a real focus to stop that.
I’m sure the Tories would love to talk about anything other than the current mess and move the focus elsewhere.
Even adding in a Russian collapse in Ukraine leading to a withdrawal to 1991 borders etc
Zeitgeist and all that.
A more current example would be in New Zealand where the centre-right National Party leads Labour by six points but National leader Chris Luxon trails Jacinda Ardern by nine points in the preferred Prime Minister polling.
Policymakers wishing to raise more revenue from those with high incomes could simply raise
income tax rates; raising any of the rates of income tax would be progressive. But estimates
suggest that the UK’s top marginal income tax rate (which applies to the roughly top 1% of
taxpayers) is already close to revenue maximising."
We could easily be in for five more years of this chaos.
It's just that in the past (last 70-80 years or so) the two have always followed each other so it looks like age.
The last think either Nicola S or Keir S need is for the general impression to become cemented that their respective parties are guaranteed to win by landslides in their respective countries. They need to keep the troops on their toes. And get the bloody voters out.
In truth, he had a mandate and a majority to be as radical as Attlee in 1945 and Thatcher in 1983 but he hadn't won on a radical agenda - indeed, he'd won on the agenda of maintaining most of the Thatcher/Major reforms and his majority was built on an electorate who didn't want radical change but wanted Government simply done better and without the constant stench of scandal.
Subsample polling (I know), seems to suggest Labour are advancing where they need to.
New Labour had loads of vested interests, and its own share of unforced scandals. Remember how Mandelson had to resign twice?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/30/groundhog-year-uk-disposable-incomes-to-fall-by-38-in-2023
I pay 62% above £100k, which is confiscatory.
Fuck the Conservative party. They imported a culture war for short term electioneering.
But it doesn't mean it is wrong.
If it is anywhere near correct, there is precious little scope for a government revival.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2014/05/16/milibands-rating-lessons-history
The NZ election has not happened yet
Anyway, what's wrong with showing your hand? Do you think the public might not like the policies?
What is holding Labour back is that their leader is an uncharismatic dud with no political courage, judgement or vision and no answers at all to the many problems the country faces. He's been incredibly lucky this autumn, and that may be enough, but if the Conservatives get their act together - a remote, but not impossible, prospect - he's in trouble.
Older people may not approve of woke. But previous older people didn't approve of the Swinging Sixties.
But, as we saw in 2016, if you tell voters you simply disapprove of them, they're unlikely to vote for you.
Which rather precludes the Tories from finding them either.
Good paying job, home ownership, live in London in a posh area.
But I’m not. The Tories offer me nothing but failure and disappointment. They call me an idiot and condescend me because I don’t care about the culture wars.
The Tories face extinction if they can’t win over people my age. And all the signs are that they are going backwards.
I suspect if HMRC did a proper survey there would be a significant reduction in people earning between £100,000 and £130,000 compared to the below and above that figure.
Cameron didn’t have any answers between 2005 and 2010, he just wasn’t Gordon Brown
Now we’re coming off the drug we’re starting to see what a big deal it was https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-was-grown-on-the-magic-money-tree-fxgmw26gj
Now however the Conservatives do best with C2s, in Lincolnshire or Essex
not Surrey and West London and with over 65s
Which therefore is the more “progressive” age cohort.
So it may be that Culture Wars, and talk of restricting abortions, and embracing the sometimes misogynistic American alt-right, so these gains do seem to be threatened, is counter-productive. Same with opposing freedom of movement.
So I would suggest home ownership is still the main factor, given in 2019 the Tories still won most 39 to 49 year olds and most 40 to 50s are home owners, at least with a mortgage, even if under 40s now aren't and still generally rent
I’m very free freedom of speech, I just don’t think being held accountable is being cancelled. And most younger people agree.
Which young people support a dictatorship?!? Aren’t they the most in favour of PR?
Starmer: +0.5%
Corbyn: -19.4%
Miliband: -27.6%
Johnson: -29.8%
May: -34.2% https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1608779146632781826/photo/1
This comment from btl sums my views on how well our democracy has economically benefited the young
'The article argues that is was a cohort effect (the GFC) rather than a period effect (the declining quality of the Tories) that caused the shift in the UK. I think this let's the Tories off the hook far too easily.
Different cohorts experienced the Story decline differently. Boomers got tax cuts, triple locked pensions, inflated assets, and an end to those pesky foreigners. Millenials got expensive education, zero real wage growth, unaffordable, housing, and the loss of their cosmopolitan identity. This was not the random result of an exogenous recession but an orchestrated programme of intergenerational expropriation.
There are plenty of conservative young Britons but the only conservative party is busy robbing them blind.'
One can also cite the degree of hostility reported by Jewish students from student unions as evidence for unprogressive views among some young people.
Seems like a few nut jobs are making you form an opinion about all young people.
If you want to play this game, all older voters are morons because they voted for Brexit
In 1997 the typical Conservative voter left was upper middle class, wealthy and a high earner and lived in West London or the South East.
Now the typical Conservative voter left is skilled working class, retired, a home owner and lives in Essex or Kent or the Midlands.
Albeit Sunak might make it a little more like 1997 than Boris or Truss would in terms of voter coalition but the trend is the same
The right have weaponised ignorance and stupidity. May work short term for people who were already a bit insular / dumb / prejudiced. But long term is absolutely sinking them.
Meloni did well with the young in Italy too.
The young are more likely to go hard left than the old but also more likely to go far right too
A Labour policy adopted by a Tory government is a win for Labour, not a loss, and easy to sell as such if they have political nous.
I reckon the breakpoint is about 225 Conservatives. If NOM and Labour majority are equally likely, that points to that being their expected score.
If the real economy for 2023 matches the OBR's expectations, that seems optimistic.