I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.
Why do you doubt information posted by Goodwin?
Because he’s a client journalist for REFUK posing as a pollster and social scientist.
Goodwin is Farage's favourite political scientist on GB news alongside Starkey, his favourite historian
From my experience at the LSE, Starkey wasn't really anyone's favourite anything. Not liked.
Two undergraduates I knew who were supervised by him at Fen Poly could not speak highly enough of his supervisions - and in one case of his compassion and help in a pastoral matter. I suspect his attitude to his colleagues was rather more in character though.
People will look back on this Tory government and wonder how a Party with a cabinet containing Jacob Rees-Mogg Priti Patel Nadine Dories Suella Braverman LiZ Truss Nadim Zahawi Gavin Williamson Kwazi Karteng Matt Hancock and Boris Johnson could ever have been taken seriously
Rishi probably has most of 2023 to turn things around, given that technically the next election doesn't have to be held until January 2025. But probably not any longer than those 12 months.
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Not during the period of Putin in charge. Same with Winnie the Pooh over in the China. They are fundamentally against the Western world view and Putin has written plenty of times how he believes that Gorbachev and Yeltsin effectively sold out Great Russia state. That the Russian people, its great history, etc etc etc have been broken up and neutered by the evil West and that was the plan all along....this is part of his reasoning by Ukraine war.
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Agree. When Yeltsin was in charge we could have tried harder with Russia. But instead the West enjoyed wallowing in their failures, thinking it proved how right we were.
I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.
Well, yes, it's an outlier and there's something odd about a methodology that gives such a high combined score to the Greens and Reform, but, still. If the Tories weren't doing so badly than an outlier like this would see them - shock! - on under 30%.
That a poll has to put the Tories on under 20% to be an outlier is a pretty good sign of how bad their underlying position is.
Well no actually. Not much of an outlier from a firm which serves up low Tory and high “other” totals as standard, more a case of close to MOE by this firms standard.
And we have often discussed “the others” from this company’s polling before. Part of me asks why is it wrong? Yes it probably is but Can we compare with actual GE results data for others - independents, very minor party’s, looney’s, literal democrats ballot wreckers etc, all added up?
Maybe we should be more sceptical of polls being wrong that has Labour or Tory’s in 50s when at GE neither will get 44% perhaps never even close to that - on basis of difference between 54 and 44 is 10% others come Election Day some poll firms add to the big two, People Polling take other at face value?
The analysis that the clear uptake in Tory polling has not just lost momentum but stepped back is okay in my opinion. Why is a mixture of assessing Sunak and finding him wanting - a vote loser in different ways than Truss and Boris, he is adjudged to be inexperienced and not in control, also government arguments on strikes don’t wash with the voters, these two reasons are why the Tories will slip backwards in likely all polls over the coming weeks.
It's the first poll to put the Tories on under 20% for more than two months. It's an outlier. This is not worth disputing.
The question for 2023 is: can Starmer seal the deal?
A successful 2023 would see Starmer enthroned as the Prime Minister in waiting, his victory seen as inevitable, and a decisive shift in media coverage in his favour as a result.
If Starmer has a bad 2023 then it's possible you might see voters casting around for other politicians to support to take down the Tories.
But I’m disputing it as an outlier. With a strong case For one thing we can’t set it in context of other recent polls from companies who tend to give higher Tory % than People polling. If you have been following the polls you would wouldn’t call a 25 from Opinium or 24 from Kantor an outlier till you set it amongst its chronology cousins - a 25 from Opinium or 24 from Kantor makes a 19 from people polling a bit higher than expected to be honest. For another thing, those two months you spoke of, 2 24s from people polling, and a 21 and a 20. 19 is not a wild outlying deviation from this particular firm is it?
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Agree. When Yeltsin was in charge we could have tried harder with Russia. But instead the West enjoyed wallowing in their failures, thinking it proved how right we were.
We had some third-rate politicians leading us at that time Reagan, Thatcher, Blair, Bush.... They had no long-term vision about how we/they wanted the world to be, or how to bring it about.
The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now
The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.
But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election
With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster
I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
It's hard to disagree with that.
Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
Martin Mere. Lovely. Used to be the biggest lake in England.
Bloody wet still. Hundreds of acres of leeks in the fields.
Well of course it will be wet if you don’t repair the pipes
If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
I expected more from Sunak. His lack of experience and support is pretty debilitating for the Tories. It’s as if they have the administrators in.
I don't think it matters much what people think of Sunak (or Starmer for that matter). At the moment they just see the Tory Party like chewing gum in their hair. They just want to get rid of it at all costs.
They're lucky this isn't a more volatile country or we'd have been out on the streets.
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Agree. When Yeltsin was in charge we could have tried harder with Russia. But instead the West enjoyed wallowing in their failures, thinking it proved how right we were.
We had some third-rate politicians leading us at that time Reagan, Thatcher, Blair, Bush.... They had no long-term vision about how we/they wanted the world to be, or how to bring it about.
I think Blair is a different case (not necessarily in a good way) but with Reagan, Thatcher, Bush and also Clinton, they'd spent their whole lives fighting Communism. Once it ended their main plan for Russia seems to have been to make sure they had really got rid of Communism. Which worked if that was the goal, I guess.
I do take polls taken over the holiday period with a bit of salt. I mean, the last remaining British tories are probably off skiing or in Barbados.
Nevertheless, the Conservatives are in for an absolute shellacking. Sunak's honeymoon is over. The longer they drag this farce out, the worse they will fare.
I continue to think they will be in the 100-150 seat range with the lower end quite possible.
If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
I expected more from Sunak. His lack of experience and support is pretty debilitating for the Tories. It’s as if they have the administrators in.
I don't think it matters much what people think of Sunak (or Starmer for that matter). At the moment they just see the Tory Party like chewing gum in their hair. They just want to get rid of it at all costs.
They're lucky this isn't a more volatile country or we'd have been out on the streets.
More like dog poo squelched into the soles of their feet ... but yes
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now
The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.
But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election
With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster
I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
It's hard to disagree with that.
Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
There's a substantial body of centre-right opinion in this country and an awful lot of older voters are heavily invested in the current system (which is essentially a massive engine for the transfer of wealth from wage earners to property owners and the retired.) There's no way on God's Earth that the Tories are going to do anything like this badly when people actually have to vote for a Government. Hard to say whether this is going to end in a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority, but I'm still leaning towards the former. I don't think it'll be as bad for the Tories as '97 - socio-economic inequality has increased and the population has aged since then, both factors which mitigate against a Labour landslide.
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
There's a substantial body of centre-right opinion in this country and an awful lot of older voters are heavily invested in the current system (which is essentially a massive engine for the transfer of wealth from wage earners to property owners and the retired.) There's no way on God's Earth that the Tories are going to do anything like this badly when people actually have to vote for a Government. Hard to say whether this is going to end in a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority, but I'm still leaning towards the former. I don't think it'll be as bad for the Tories as '97 - socio-economic inequality has increased and the population has aged since then, both factors which mitigate against a Labour landslide.
On the other hand the 1990s Tories look like first class professionals compared to the current lot. There is zero political direction from no10. I can’t quite put my finger on what’s missing, but there’s something not quite right with Sunak. They look like they’re going through the motions.
If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
Certainly very boring but not sure why you think he is competent , his arse must be full of skelfs from sitting on the fence. He is just another weak Tory.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Yes, and a lot of comments that are not party political like "the country is falling apart and the government does nothing".
A zombie government of weirdos and nonentities is not going to revive.
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
There's a substantial body of centre-right opinion in this country and an awful lot of older voters are heavily invested in the current system (which is essentially a massive engine for the transfer of wealth from wage earners to property owners and the retired.) There's no way on God's Earth that the Tories are going to do anything like this badly when people actually have to vote for a Government. Hard to say whether this is going to end in a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority, but I'm still leaning towards the former. I don't think it'll be as bad for the Tories as '97 - socio-economic inequality has increased and the population has aged since then, both factors which mitigate against a Labour landslide.
I'm afraid that you are living in a fantasy land my friend.
Keir Starmer has done pretty much everything to ensure that the constituency to which you refer will feel relatively safe under Labour.
But when you have stories of disabled elderly lying injured in their homes and unable to get an ambulance, or others stranded in corridors in A&E for 48 hours, then you are I'm afraid missing another vital element of concern for people of that age. Not many of them have private health care. And I could add the spiralling costs of food and energy etc. etc.
It is FAR worse than 1997 when the economy was booming. Now it's tanking. Everything that could go wrong, is.
It will be a bloodbath at the election on a scale you have never seen before. It will re-write the annals and reset 'precedent' until the next event comes along to rewrite precedent.
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Agree. When Yeltsin was in charge we could have tried harder with Russia. But instead the West enjoyed wallowing in their failures, thinking it proved how right we were.
We had some third-rate politicians leading us at that time Reagan, Thatcher, Blair, Bush.... They had no long-term vision about how we/they wanted the world to be, or how to bring it about.
Yeltsin was in power between 1991 and 1999. Thatcher and Reagan left their offices in 1989, having helped destroy the Soviet Union (and IMO that was a good thing). Blaming them for what came a couple of years after is a little silly.
In the story above, it's interesting to see that officials were very sceptical (rightly, with hindsight), and that Putin's words were not consistent with their actions. This is perhaps why any attempt to bring Russia "in" were doomed to failure. Besides, much of the large amounts of money we did send went straight into pockets to make the oligarchs.
The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now
The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.
But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election
With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster
I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
It's hard to disagree with that.
Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Agree. When Yeltsin was in charge we could have tried harder with Russia. But instead the West enjoyed wallowing in their failures, thinking it proved how right we were.
We had some third-rate politicians leading us at that time Reagan, Thatcher, Blair, Bush.... They had no long-term vision about how we/they wanted the world to be, or how to bring it about.
Yeltsin was in power between 1991 and 1999. Thatcher and Reagan left their offices in 1989, having helped destroy the Soviet Union (and IMO that was a good thing). Blaming them for what came a couple of years after is a little silly.
In the story above, it's interesting to see that officials were very sceptical (rightly, with hindsight), and that Putin's words were not consistent with their actions. This is perhaps why any attempt to bring Russia "in" were doomed to failure. Besides, much of the large amounts of money we did send went straight into pockets to make the oligarchs.
Gorbachev was definitely of the view that the West missed an opportunity to bring Russia into the fold, but he was talking of the pre-Putin period. Once Vlad was in, the die was cast. He was always an extreme Russian Nationalist, and the advice Blair was given was correct.
I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.
PP tends to give high RefUK and low Cons scores; the 14% for the Conservatives just before Truss resigned was theirs. But the changes within their series ought to be about right; they're wrong but they look consistently wrong, which can be more useful than being inconsistently right.
My guess is that some pollsters are prompting for RefUK, putting the thought in people's minds. Unless they miraculously find 600+ candidates, this isn't going to happen to most voters when they get to the polling booth.
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Agree. When Yeltsin was in charge we could have tried harder with Russia. But instead the West enjoyed wallowing in their failures, thinking it proved how right we were.
Partly it’s that we assumed that the economic ‘shock therapy’ transition to capitalism - which was painful, but worked in Poland - would work elsewhere.
That was a massive mistake, which ignored the huge differences in culture and history, both economic and political, for the Soviet Union.
A large part of the was Jeffrey Sachs, whom bizarrely the Lancet recently chose to chair their ‘Covid Commission’.
I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.
Why do you doubt information posted by Goodwin?
Because he’s a client journalist for REFUK posing as a pollster and social scientist.
Goodwin is Farage's favourite political scientist on GB news alongside Starkey, his favourite historian
Yes Goodwin is a hard right client academic whose bias is as blatant as some of the worst hard left equivalents.
Possibly so, but aren't they British Polling Council registered and therefore kosher?
It doesn't follow that they are competent.
Polling companies all differ somewhat in their methods, and PP do poll lower Tory, and higher REFUK and Green figures. Is it how they present the options?
There was a time that claiming particular pollsters were biased was quite a serious PB offence.
If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
Certainly very boring but not sure why you think he is competent , his arse must be full of skelfs from sitting on the fence. He is just another weak Tory.
He doesn’t need to be competent - he just needs to be seen as better than the other option.
And with 18 months of more nhs disaster stories to come it’s not going to be difficult to be better than the other option.
If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
I expected more from Sunak. His lack of experience and support is pretty debilitating for the Tories. It’s as if they have the administrators in.
It's the lack of political capital.
Johnson started with a lot, topped up by the 2019 election, but spent half on his damaging and dishonest delivery of Brexit and frittered away the rest through his bad behaviour.
Truss started with very little, having no mandate from voters and not being the MPs' choice, and promptly went all-in on her loopy budget, losing all her chips.
Sunak has no mandate from voters, was clearly the members' second choice (probably lower), and only got the job after Truss self-destructed. And the Johnson fiasco followed by the Truss fiasco have pushed Tory poll ratings down to rock bottom, giving Sunak little chance of building capital from electoral success.
This coming May is going to be a bloodbath for Tory councillors and we surely can pencil in another internal Tory crisis for the summer?
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
I very much hope for his sake that is what happened.
That's the story they are putting out.
It does happen, nearly happened to me once, I got all light headed once driving a car (was mostly diabetes and which led to tiredness), on a motorway no less.
I had the wits to pull over and ring my father to come pick me up.
Alas the rozzers showed what absolute roasters they are in the meantime.
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Agree. When Yeltsin was in charge we could have tried harder with Russia. But instead the West enjoyed wallowing in their failures, thinking it proved how right we were.
The big picture mistake was thinking it was all economics, and sending waves of academics and young financiers (especially Americans) in to help them privatise everything. Little attention was paid to the fundamental social and institutional elements that enable a free economy to function - electoral democracy, independent judiciary, free media, etc. - and hence what was supposed to be a free economy quickly mutated into a gangster/criminal one.
Gessen's 'Future is History' is a great source - or there is that recent somewhat peculiarly made BBC documentary series, both looking at the transformation in Russia through ordinary lives.
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
There's a substantial body of centre-right opinion in this country and an awful lot of older voters are heavily invested in the current system (which is essentially a massive engine for the transfer of wealth from wage earners to property owners and the retired.) There's no way on God's Earth that the Tories are going to do anything like this badly when people actually have to vote for a Government. Hard to say whether this is going to end in a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority, but I'm still leaning towards the former. I don't think it'll be as bad for the Tories as '97 - socio-economic inequality has increased and the population has aged since then, both factors which mitigate against a Labour landslide.
I'm afraid that you are living in a fantasy land my friend.
Keir Starmer has done pretty much everything to ensure that the constituency to which you refer will feel relatively safe under Labour.
But when you have stories of disabled elderly lying injured in their homes and unable to get an ambulance, or others stranded in corridors in A&E for 48 hours, then you are I'm afraid missing another vital element of concern for people of that age. Not many of them have private health care. And I could add the spiralling costs of food and energy etc. etc.
It is FAR worse than 1997 when the economy was booming. Now it's tanking. Everything that could go wrong, is.
It will be a bloodbath at the election on a scale you have never seen before. It will re-write the annals and reset 'precedent' until the next event comes along to rewrite precedent.
An immense shellacking is undoubtedly what this Government deserves but they're not going to get it. There's much truth in what you say, but OTOH this is an administration by, of and for older voters - one which has buttered them up with big pension increases almost every year and has a proven track record for frustrating the development of new homes and, therefore, ensuring a long-term trend of ever-rising prices. There's a very big constituency of retired homeowners and late middle-aged heirs who therefore have a vested interest in keeping them in place.
Nor do I believe that the dire state of public services is necessarily the handicap that everyone thinks it is: just as with Covid, there are a certain number of poor blighters who really suffered from or died with it, and therefore a cohort of enraged survivors and relatives who will never forgive the Conservatives for their handling of the situation - but that's not most people. Most older voters (and especially the better off ones, who are likely on average to be fitter and may be able to afford private care to queue jump for routine operations,) have not ended up spending years in agony waiting to get their dodgy joints fixed, or been stranded outside a hospital for 40 hours in the back of an ambulance. For them, it's still "the economy, stupid," and they have been insulated from all the worst effects of the post-2008 incomes disaster by a combination of the triple lock, skyrocketing house prices and older style, more generous occupational pensions.
There are a lot of people who have done very nicely, thank you out of the Conservative years, and that's before getting on to the culture wars horror show. Much of the population still thinks Brexit was the right decision. Much of the population still wants the boat people problem to go away, and not by adopting the "just let them all in" solution that it'll be all too easy to convince them that Labour would be in favour of. Yes, Keir Starmer has managed his affairs as LOTO quite competently, and substantial gains seem to be nailed on - but as for an epochal victory, I just don't buy it. The minted old gits will weigh their options come election time, and stick with the devil they know. Watch.
On topic, support for the Blue Meanies could sink lower, Part I.
Rishi Sunak is poised to halve financial support on energy bills for businesses, amid concerns about the cost.
When she was prime minister Liz Truss announced a six-month package of support for businesses in October that capped wholesale energy prices on electricity and gas. That is expected to cost £18 billion by the time it ends on March 20.
Next month Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, will announce a 12-month extension to the scheme but with the level of support more than halved, amid concerns about taxpayers’ exposure to fluctuating energy prices.
Good morning everyone. Are Con Home and PB now the only places with Conservative majorities?
On ConHome they keep moaning about all the 'liberals' who post there, and wondering where all the real Tories have gone. Like Leon they quickly conclude there must be some sort of conspiracy and don't seem to realise that it simply reflects changing views in the country.
On topic, support for the Blue Meanies could sink lower, Part II.
Millions of homeowners refixing their mortgages next year face an average annual increase of £3,000 in repayments, according to research which warns that 2023 will bring additional financial hardship for borrowers.
A report by the Resolution Foundation think tank said that the two million homeowners who will have to refix their mortgages next year face the highest interest rates since 2008. An average fixed-rate repayment will increase from £750 a month to £1,000.
If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
Certainly very boring but not sure why you think he is competent , his arse must be full of skelfs from sitting on the fence. He is just another weak Tory.
He doesn’t need to be competent - he just needs to be seen as better than the other option.
And with 18 months of more nhs disaster stories to come it’s not going to be difficult to be better than the other option.
It is pretty grim out there:
"NEW: Across the West Midlands last night there were 561 999 patients waiting for an ambulance at around 10.20pm - while at the same time 138 @OFFICIALWMAS ambulances were waiting for over an hour outside hospitals in the region - not critical incident declare though:"
"In the last seven days across the West Midlands 3,228 ambulance patients were waiting over an hour in the back of an ambulance - one outside the @sathPRH waited over 30 hours - 118 people were stuck for 12 hours:"
On topic, support for the Blue Meanies could sink lower, Part III.
Animal charities fear that 2023 will bring a wave abandoned horses and ponies as owners find it increasingly difficult to pay for hay and vet bills.
Figures from the RSPCA’s animal kindness index 2022, a UK-wide survey, showed the cost of living crisis is potentially “one of the biggest threats to the welfare of animals across the country”.
Dogs, cats, rabbits and lizards have been handed in, and now the charity has said it has had a rise in horses entering their care, often in “very poor” condition.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
There's a substantial body of centre-right opinion in this country and an awful lot of older voters are heavily invested in the current system (which is essentially a massive engine for the transfer of wealth from wage earners to property owners and the retired.) There's no way on God's Earth that the Tories are going to do anything like this badly when people actually have to vote for a Government. Hard to say whether this is going to end in a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority, but I'm still leaning towards the former. I don't think it'll be as bad for the Tories as '97 - socio-economic inequality has increased and the population has aged since then, both factors which mitigate against a Labour landslide.
I'm afraid that you are living in a fantasy land my friend.
Keir Starmer has done pretty much everything to ensure that the constituency to which you refer will feel relatively safe under Labour.
But when you have stories of disabled elderly lying injured in their homes and unable to get an ambulance, or others stranded in corridors in A&E for 48 hours, then you are I'm afraid missing another vital element of concern for people of that age. Not many of them have private health care. And I could add the spiralling costs of food and energy etc. etc.
It is FAR worse than 1997 when the economy was booming. Now it's tanking. Everything that could go wrong, is.
It will be a bloodbath at the election on a scale you have never seen before. It will re-write the annals and reset 'precedent' until the next event comes along to rewrite precedent.
An immense shellacking is undoubtedly what this Government deserves but they're not going to get it. There's much truth in what you say, but OTOH this is an administration by, of and for older voters - one which has buttered them up with big pension increases almost every year and has a proven track record for frustrating the development of new homes and, therefore, ensuring a long-term trend of ever-rising prices. There's a very big constituency of retired homeowners and late middle-aged heirs who therefore have a vested interest in keeping them in place.
Nor do I believe that the dire state of public services is necessarily the handicap that everyone thinks it is: just as with Covid, there are a certain number of poor blighters who really suffered from or died with it, and therefore a cohort of enraged survivors and relatives who will never forgive the Conservatives for their handling of the situation - but that's not most people. Most older voters (and especially the better off ones, who are likely on average to be fitter and may be able to afford private care to queue jump for routine operations,) have not ended up spending years in agony waiting to get their dodgy joints fixed, or been stranded outside a hospital for 40 hours in the back of an ambulance. For them, it's still "the economy, stupid," and they have been insulated from all the worst effects of the post-2008 incomes disaster by a combination of the triple lock, skyrocketing house prices and older style, more generous occupational pensions.
There are a lot of people who have done very nicely, thank you out of the Conservative years, and that's before getting on to the culture wars horror show. Much of the population still thinks Brexit was the right decision. Much of the population still wants the boat people problem to go away, and not by adopting the "just let them all in" solution that it'll be all too easy to convince them that Labour would be in favour of. Yes, Keir Starmer has managed his affairs as LOTO quite competently, and substantial gains seem to be nailed on - but as for an epochal victory, I just don't buy it. The minted old gits will weigh their options come election time, and stick with the devil they know. Watch.
It's a well argued case and, who knows, you might be right.
Either way, it's going to be a fascinating couple of years politically.
I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.
Why do you doubt information posted by Goodwin?
Because he’s a client journalist for REFUK posing as a pollster and social scientist.
Goodwin is Farage's favourite political scientist on GB news alongside Starkey, his favourite historian
Yes Goodwin is a hard right client academic whose bias is as blatant as some of the worst hard left equivalents.
Possibly so, but aren't they British Polling Council registered and therefore kosher?
It doesn't follow that they are competent.
Polling companies all differ somewhat in their methods, and PP do poll lower Tory, and higher REFUK and Green figures. Is it how they present the options?
There was a time that claiming particular pollsters were biased was quite a serious PB offence.
It could have something to do with it. I don't think they necessarily need to be intentionally biasing the question, but it does seem plausible that high Ref/low Con figures might be less likely to get an "are you sure?" from the boss.
My own view is that until a pollster has had their methodology tested at a general election, their polls should be given significantly less weight than longer-established pollsters whose idiosyncrasies are well known.
Former President Trump foreign policy advisor John Bolton said that Donald Trump planned to withdraw the U.S. from NATO and allow Russian expansion in Ukraine and further into Europe. https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1608228867680141312
Not exactly news, as much the same was reported back in 2019. But a useful reminder.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
There's a substantial body of centre-right opinion in this country and an awful lot of older voters are heavily invested in the current system (which is essentially a massive engine for the transfer of wealth from wage earners to property owners and the retired.) There's no way on God's Earth that the Tories are going to do anything like this badly when people actually have to vote for a Government. Hard to say whether this is going to end in a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority, but I'm still leaning towards the former. I don't think it'll be as bad for the Tories as '97 - socio-economic inequality has increased and the population has aged since then, both factors which mitigate against a Labour landslide.
I'm afraid that you are living in a fantasy land my friend.
Keir Starmer has done pretty much everything to ensure that the constituency to which you refer will feel relatively safe under Labour.
But when you have stories of disabled elderly lying injured in their homes and unable to get an ambulance, or others stranded in corridors in A&E for 48 hours, then you are I'm afraid missing another vital element of concern for people of that age. Not many of them have private health care. And I could add the spiralling costs of food and energy etc. etc.
It is FAR worse than 1997 when the economy was booming. Now it's tanking. Everything that could go wrong, is.
It will be a bloodbath at the election on a scale you have never seen before. It will re-write the annals and reset 'precedent' until the next event comes along to rewrite precedent.
An immense shellacking is undoubtedly what this Government deserves but they're not going to get it. There's much truth in what you say, but OTOH this is an administration by, of and for older voters - one which has buttered them up with big pension increases almost every year and has a proven track record for frustrating the development of new homes and, therefore, ensuring a long-term trend of ever-rising prices. There's a very big constituency of retired homeowners and late middle-aged heirs who therefore have a vested interest in keeping them in place.
Nor do I believe that the dire state of public services is necessarily the handicap that everyone thinks it is: just as with Covid, there are a certain number of poor blighters who really suffered from or died with it, and therefore a cohort of enraged survivors and relatives who will never forgive the Conservatives for their handling of the situation - but that's not most people. Most older voters (and especially the better off ones, who are likely on average to be fitter and may be able to afford private care to queue jump for routine operations,) have not ended up spending years in agony waiting to get their dodgy joints fixed, or been stranded outside a hospital for 40 hours in the back of an ambulance. For them, it's still "the economy, stupid," and they have been insulated from all the worst effects of the post-2008 incomes disaster by a combination of the triple lock, skyrocketing house prices and older style, more generous occupational pensions.
There are a lot of people who have done very nicely, thank you out of the Conservative years, and that's before getting on to the culture wars horror show. Much of the population still thinks Brexit was the right decision. Much of the population still wants the boat people problem to go away, and not by adopting the "just let them all in" solution that it'll be all too easy to convince them that Labour would be in favour of. Yes, Keir Starmer has managed his affairs as LOTO quite competently, and substantial gains seem to be nailed on - but as for an epochal victory, I just don't buy it. The minted old gits will weigh their options come election time, and stick with the devil they know. Watch.
I had my nephews over for Xmas, both in their 20s, and they clearly perceive all this from the other side. The younger one was telling me that everyone he knows is thoroughly disengaged from politics, blaming 'the system' as much as the Tories, and have basically concluded that politics and politicians are somewhere between corrupt and a waste of time.
Therefore there's a big disaffacted constituency whose instinct is not to bother - engaging some of these is the explanation why Corbyn managed to come in off the radar in 2017. It is hard to see Starmer doing the same.
On topic, support for the Blue Meanies could sink lower, Part III.
Animal charities fear that 2023 will bring a wave abandoned horses and ponies as owners find it increasingly difficult to pay for hay and vet bills.
Figures from the RSPCA’s animal kindness index 2022, a UK-wide survey, showed the cost of living crisis is potentially “one of the biggest threats to the welfare of animals across the country”.
Dogs, cats, rabbits and lizards have been handed in, and now the charity has said it has had a rise in horses entering their care, often in “very poor” condition.
If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
I expected more from Sunak. His lack of experience and support is pretty debilitating for the Tories. It’s as if they have the administrators in.
It's the lack of political capital.
Johnson started with a lot, topped up by the 2019 election, but spent half on his damaging and dishonest delivery of Brexit and frittered away the rest through his bad behaviour.
Truss started with very little, having no mandate from voters and not being the MPs' choice, and promptly went all-in on her loopy budget, losing all her chips.
Sunak has no mandate from voters, was clearly the members' second choice (probably lower), and only got the job after Truss self-destructed. And the Johnson fiasco followed by the Truss fiasco have pushed Tory poll ratings down to rock bottom, giving Sunak little chance of building capital from electoral success.
This coming May is going to be a bloodbath for Tory councillors and we surely can pencil in another internal Tory crisis for the summer?
Next May and the 2024 GE will be car crashes but there will be no internal crisis because there is no escape route. The Party has exhausted its supply of false Messiahs and just has to put up with the dull but worthy Sunak until the crash is behind them and they can start rebuilding.
Talking of crashes, looks like Pant was a lucky boy to get out alive. Let's hope his brilliant career isn't affected and he learns to stop doing whatever it was he was up to at 5.30 am.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
There's a substantial body of centre-right opinion in this country and an awful lot of older voters are heavily invested in the current system (which is essentially a massive engine for the transfer of wealth from wage earners to property owners and the retired.) There's no way on God's Earth that the Tories are going to do anything like this badly when people actually have to vote for a Government. Hard to say whether this is going to end in a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority, but I'm still leaning towards the former. I don't think it'll be as bad for the Tories as '97 - socio-economic inequality has increased and the population has aged since then, both factors which mitigate against a Labour landslide.
I'm afraid that you are living in a fantasy land my friend.
Keir Starmer has done pretty much everything to ensure that the constituency to which you refer will feel relatively safe under Labour.
But when you have stories of disabled elderly lying injured in their homes and unable to get an ambulance, or others stranded in corridors in A&E for 48 hours, then you are I'm afraid missing another vital element of concern for people of that age. Not many of them have private health care. And I could add the spiralling costs of food and energy etc. etc.
It is FAR worse than 1997 when the economy was booming. Now it's tanking. Everything that could go wrong, is.
It will be a bloodbath at the election on a scale you have never seen before. It will re-write the annals and reset 'precedent' until the next event comes along to rewrite precedent.
An immense shellacking is undoubtedly what this Government deserves but they're not going to get it. There's much truth in what you say, but OTOH this is an administration by, of and for older voters - one which has buttered them up with big pension increases almost every year and has a proven track record for frustrating the development of new homes and, therefore, ensuring a long-term trend of ever-rising prices. There's a very big constituency of retired homeowners and late middle-aged heirs who therefore have a vested interest in keeping them in place.
Nor do I believe that the dire state of public services is necessarily the handicap that everyone thinks it is: just as with Covid, there are a certain number of poor blighters who really suffered from or died with it, and therefore a cohort of enraged survivors and relatives who will never forgive the Conservatives for their handling of the situation - but that's not most people. Most older voters (and especially the better off ones, who are likely on average to be fitter and may be able to afford private care to queue jump for routine operations,) have not ended up spending years in agony waiting to get their dodgy joints fixed, or been stranded outside a hospital for 40 hours in the back of an ambulance. For them, it's still "the economy, stupid," and they have been insulated from all the worst effects of the post-2008 incomes disaster by a combination of the triple lock, skyrocketing house prices and older style, more generous occupational pensions.
There are a lot of people who have done very nicely, thank you out of the Conservative years, and that's before getting on to the culture wars horror show. Much of the population still thinks Brexit was the right decision. Much of the population still wants the boat people problem to go away, and not by adopting the "just let them all in" solution that it'll be all too easy to convince them that Labour would be in favour of. Yes, Keir Starmer has managed his affairs as LOTO quite competently, and substantial gains seem to be nailed on - but as for an epochal victory, I just don't buy it. The minted old gits will weigh their options come election time, and stick with the devil they know. Watch.
It's a well argued case and, who knows, you might be right.
Either way, it's going to be a fascinating couple of years politically.
As I've said before, keep an eye on Big_G. If he stays with Starmer, maybe Heathener is right. If he shows signs of reverting to type, or staying at home, maybe pigeon will be right.
SARS-CoV-2 infection and persistence in the human body and brain at autopsy https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05542-y … Here we carried out complete autopsies on 44 patients who died with COVID-19, with extensive sampling of the central nervous system in 11 of these patients, to map and quantify the distribution, replication and cell-type specificity of SARS-CoV-2 across the human body, including the brain, from acute infection to more than seven months following symptom onset. We show that SARS-CoV-2 is widely distributed, predominantly among patients who died with severe COVID-19, and that virus replication is present in multiple respiratory and non-respiratory tissues, including the brain, early in infection. Further, we detected persistent SARS-CoV-2 RNA in multiple anatomic sites, including throughout the brain, as late as 230 days following symptom onset in one case. Despite extensive distribution of SARS-CoV-2 RNA throughout the body, we observed little evidence of inflammation or direct viral cytopathology outside the respiratory tract. Our data indicate that in some patients SARS-CoV-2 can cause systemic infection and persist in the body for months...
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
You must have been in the cheese aisle. In the bread aisle I heard them moaning about people who wear offensively flamboyant shoes.
I must be having a lucky day - I called HMRC with a problem (that they caused) and within half an hour I had a fix agreed and both HMRC and Companies House have agreed to extend filing deadlines without penalty for long enough for the fix to be implemented.
I'd expected to have spent half the day on the phone based on the scare stories you hear.
I must be having a lucky day - I called HMRC with a problem (that they caused) and within half an hour I had a fix agreed and both HMRC and Companies House have agreed to extend filing deadlines without penalty for long enough for the fix to be implemented.
I'd expected to have spent half the day on the phone based on the scare stories you hear.
Some years back HMRC had a complete overhaul of their customer service and generally they are way ahead of most companies nowadays. Whoever managed this should be a rich man or woman and sent in to other big enterprises to do the same.
He's had a lifetime to learn to behave properly, and never did. He would simply have lasted until the next scandal. Or until this inquiry which may well bury him for good, with any luck.
I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.
If you look at Lab+LD+Green and Tory+ Reform the PP numbers are pretty much in line with those from other pollsters. The exceptions are Opinium and Techne which reallocate DKs based on previous voting record and so tend to get a higher Tory and lower Labour number. For me, the combined bloc results are always the most interesting to look at - but that’s because I think tactical voting will play a big part at the next election.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
You can still afford to shop in Waitrose?
I think you should send us all a fiver to help with the cost of living crisis.
If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
Certainly very boring but not sure why you think he is competent , his arse must be full of skelfs from sitting on the fence. He is just another weak Tory.
He doesn’t need to be competent - he just needs to be seen as better than the other option.
And with 18 months of more nhs disaster stories to come it’s not going to be difficult to be better than the other option.
Will be a disaster until we get someone with the bollox to sort out the brexit disaster and get back to some kind of meaningful relationship with EU that allows proper trade etc.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
What sort of shoes were they wearing?
Sober and understated red shoes.
Were their names Moira Shearer and Anton Walbrook?
Alyssa Griffin transcript: “It was the first COVID, like, morning meeting that Jared led after [Biden won]..& Dr. Birx..said, "Well, should we be looping the Biden transition into these conversations?" & Jared just said, "Absolutely not." & then we just moved on.” https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/1608578298136731648
Good morning everyone. Are Con Home and PB now the only places with Conservative majorities?
On ConHome they keep moaning about all the 'liberals' who post there, and wondering where all the real Tories have gone. Like Leon they quickly conclude there must be some sort of conspiracy and don't seem to realise that it simply reflects changing views in the country.
Tbf to Leon, I think he acknowledges there's a sea change in opinion caused by this government's rank ineptitude, rather than blaming any conspiracy.
Alyssa Griffin transcript: “It was the first COVID, like, morning meeting that Jared led after [Biden won]..& Dr. Birx..said, "Well, should we be looping the Biden transition into these conversations?" & Jared just said, "Absolutely not." & then we just moved on.” https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/1608578298136731648
Just as disturbing
Griffin also testified she was told Trump tried to fire CIA Dir Haspel & install Kash Patel, but Haspel had put a suicide pact in place so IC leaders would resign if that happened, forcing Trump to back down: "allegedly, for about 14 minutes, Kash was actually the CIA director.”
But I'm sure the likes of Leon and TheKitchenCabinet will bang on about Biden being unfit for office whilst not mentioning Trump's unfitness for office.
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
There's a substantial body of centre-right opinion in this country and an awful lot of older voters are heavily invested in the current system (which is essentially a massive engine for the transfer of wealth from wage earners to property owners and the retired.) There's no way on God's Earth that the Tories are going to do anything like this badly when people actually have to vote for a Government. Hard to say whether this is going to end in a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority, but I'm still leaning towards the former. I don't think it'll be as bad for the Tories as '97 - socio-economic inequality has increased and the population has aged since then, both factors which mitigate against a Labour landslide.
I'm afraid that you are living in a fantasy land my friend.
Keir Starmer has done pretty much everything to ensure that the constituency to which you refer will feel relatively safe under Labour.
But when you have stories of disabled elderly lying injured in their homes and unable to get an ambulance, or others stranded in corridors in A&E for 48 hours, then you are I'm afraid missing another vital element of concern for people of that age. Not many of them have private health care. And I could add the spiralling costs of food and energy etc. etc.
It is FAR worse than 1997 when the economy was booming. Now it's tanking. Everything that could go wrong, is.
It will be a bloodbath at the election on a scale you have never seen before. It will re-write the annals and reset 'precedent' until the next event comes along to rewrite precedent.
An immense shellacking is undoubtedly what this Government deserves but they're not going to get it. There's much truth in what you say, but OTOH this is an administration by, of and for older voters - one which has buttered them up with big pension increases almost every year and has a proven track record for frustrating the development of new homes and, therefore, ensuring a long-term trend of ever-rising prices. There's a very big constituency of retired homeowners and late middle-aged heirs who therefore have a vested interest in keeping them in place.
Nor do I believe that the dire state of public services is necessarily the handicap that everyone thinks it is: just as with Covid, there are a certain number of poor blighters who really suffered from or died with it, and therefore a cohort of enraged survivors and relatives who will never forgive the Conservatives for their handling of the situation - but that's not most people. Most older voters (and especially the better off ones, who are likely on average to be fitter and may be able to afford private care to queue jump for routine operations,) have not ended up spending years in agony waiting to get their dodgy joints fixed, or been stranded outside a hospital for 40 hours in the back of an ambulance. For them, it's still "the economy, stupid," and they have been insulated from all the worst effects of the post-2008 incomes disaster by a combination of the triple lock, skyrocketing house prices and older style, more generous occupational pensions.
There are a lot of people who have done very nicely, thank you out of the Conservative years, and that's before getting on to the culture wars horror show. Much of the population still thinks Brexit was the right decision. Much of the population still wants the boat people problem to go away, and not by adopting the "just let them all in" solution that it'll be all too easy to convince them that Labour would be in favour of. Yes, Keir Starmer has managed his affairs as LOTO quite competently, and substantial gains seem to be nailed on - but as for an epochal victory, I just don't buy it. The minted old gits will weigh their options come election time, and stick with the devil they know. Watch.
The other thing to throw into the equation is voter suppression. It’s clear the government sees its voter ID rules as a means to reduce the ability of non-Tory demographics to cast ballots.
I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.
If you look at Lab+LD+Green and Tory+ Reform the PP numbers are pretty much in line with those from other pollsters. The exceptions are Opinium and Techne which reallocate DKs based on previous voting record and so tend to get a higher Tory and lower Labour number. For me, the combined bloc results are always the most interesting to look at - but that’s because I think tactical voting will play a big part at the next election.
Yes, tatical voting is one of the big known unknowns. My guess is that will have a big impact but we won't know until the day.
Scotland is another big factor. There have been small indications of Labour creeping back there, and if that continues a Labour OM becomes much more likely.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
What sort of shoes were they wearing?
Sober and understated red shoes.
Given it was the morning I’d hope they were sober !
Another example of Blair's (and continued somewhat by Cameron / Osborne) flawed thinking that hostile / rogue nations could be tamed by being brought into the Western systems of values. Same with Libya, China, Iraq, Afghanistan.
Personally I think it was worth trying to bring Russia “in” and in fact it was a major failure of Western policy not to do more - much more - in the nineties especially.
Agree. When Yeltsin was in charge we could have tried harder with Russia. But instead the West enjoyed wallowing in their failures, thinking it proved how right we were.
We had some third-rate politicians leading us at that time Reagan, Thatcher, Blair, Bush.... They had no long-term vision about how we/they wanted the world to be, or how to bring it about.
Yeltsin was in power between 1991 and 1999. Thatcher and Reagan left their offices in 1989, having helped destroy the Soviet Union (and IMO that was a good thing). Blaming them for what came a couple of years after is a little silly.
In the story above, it's interesting to see that officials were very sceptical (rightly, with hindsight), and that Putin's words were not consistent with their actions. This is perhaps why any attempt to bring Russia "in" were doomed to failure. Besides, much of the large amounts of money we did send went straight into pockets to make the oligarchs.
Gorbachev was definitely of the view that the West missed an opportunity to bring Russia into the fold, but he was talking of the pre-Putin period. Once Vlad was in, the die was cast. He was always an extreme Russian Nationalist, and the advice Blair was given was correct.
The historians will be arguing for decades about this, and it is an open question as to what the collective West could have done, once it was accepted that the Russian Federation was the successor state of the USSR.
Yeltsin was no Liberal, he is the leader who destroyed the Russian Parliament with tank fire. Putin is not just a Russian nationalist, he leads a diverse coalition of interests.
The truth is that, far from humiliating Russia, the collective West has been happy to embrace whichever government emerges in the Kremlin (and generally fears any change). Yet this preference for stability has helped to ensure that there has been no moral reckoning in Russia over the years, as there was in South Africa´s truth and reconciliation commission. The idea that members of the Gestapo would emerge as rulers of post-war Germany is appalling, yet that is close to what has happened in Russia and the West accepted it. The KGB and its allies have been free to rob and rule Russia regardless. Russia is a country with no justice and without justice, freedom has little chance. The crisis in Moscow is a moral one, as much as an economic or political one.
Perhaps if the collective West were to stiffen their spines and insist on their own founding principles, including the UN charter, it might demonstrate that the West is not just based on hypocritical and self-serving greed but actually does believe in the principles of justice and freedom that it says it does. That example would do a lot of good in the darkness of Russia right now, and if you think this is idealistic, remember it was the 1975 Helsinki final act that started the dissident movements that ultimately destroyed Communism in the rest of Europe.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
What sort of shoes were they wearing?
Sober and understated red shoes.
Were their names Moira Shearer and Anton Walbrook?
The location in Villefranche is now owned by American Express. I though you should know!
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
What sort of shoes were they wearing?
Sober and understated red shoes.
Were their names Moira Shearer and Anton Walbrook?
The location in Villefranche is now owned by American Express. I though you should know!
Good points too. Boris had delivered Brexit and sticking with investment in public services which was what most of the new Tory voters in 2019 wanted despite personal faults.
They then overthrew him with Truss whose more libertarian slash tax, including for the rich line while not cutting spending sent the markets into free fall and lost the Tory reputation for economic competence.
Now we have Rishi who is more competent but the return to Cameron and Osborne era austerity he and Hunt are pursuing, including even ruling out a payrise for nurses in line with the national average (even if pensioners, the lowest paid and those on benefits have been protected) has turned off the redwall.
There has also been further leakage to RefUK. Under Boris they were only on 1 to 3%, now they are on up to 8%
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
There's a substantial body of centre-right opinion in this country and an awful lot of older voters are heavily invested in the current system (which is essentially a massive engine for the transfer of wealth from wage earners to property owners and the retired.) There's no way on God's Earth that the Tories are going to do anything like this badly when people actually have to vote for a Government. Hard to say whether this is going to end in a Hung Parliament or a small Labour majority, but I'm still leaning towards the former. I don't think it'll be as bad for the Tories as '97 - socio-economic inequality has increased and the population has aged since then, both factors which mitigate against a Labour landslide.
On the other hand the 1990s Tories look like first class professionals compared to the current lot. There is zero political direction from no10. I can’t quite put my finger on what’s missing, but there’s something not quite right with Sunak. They look like they’re going through the motions.
Politics in Britain has devolved to a question of where to spend more money, which taxes to cut, which services to cut that you hope people won't notice and ditto with stealth tax rises.
It's a paint-by-numbers pastiche of Blairism, but without the messianic motive force from Blair, and without the superficially decent economic performance helping to make the numbers add up.
There's no analysis of what's wrong with the country or vision of how to fix it, or determination to create a lasting change. It's all short-term tactical shuffling about of diminishing amounts of money and mouthing of soundbites in the hope of retaining political office. They're all empty suits.
With these sort of poll figures, what odds on a pre-election comeback for BJ? Everyone’s forgotten about covid and the parties by now I’d have thought. And really, he broke the rules because he knew at an instinctive level that it was all bullshit to begin with.
I’m terrified of a Starmer or Starmer/Sturgeon govt because I suspect the smallest pulse of graphs out of Sage would be enough to rush the nation back under house arrest at the expense of our children. I also think if Starmer was PM this Parliament we’d all still be wearing masks in public spaces. Hard to forget his sanctimonious face peeping out from an oversized mask in Parliament long after everyone inside had been vaccinated.
Boris meanwhile has I think learnt his lesson and next time would tell the unhireables like Valance and that communist woman where to go. This isn’t as fringe a risk as you’d think. Witness the bed wetting about China’s exit wave. And note that a potential pandemic causing novel virus seems to emerge around every five years.
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
You can still afford to shop in Waitrose?
I think you should send us all a fiver to help with the cost of living crisis.
I thought TSE was a noble Northerner, one of a few of us here. A Waitrose in the North is as rare as hens teeth.
Good morning everyone. Are Con Home and PB now the only places with Conservative majorities?
On ConHome they keep moaning about all the 'liberals' who post there, and wondering where all the real Tories have gone. Like Leon they quickly conclude there must be some sort of conspiracy and don't seem to realise that it simply reflects changing views in the country.
Tbf to Leon, I think he acknowledges there's a sea change in opinion caused by this government's rank ineptitude, rather than blaming any conspiracy.
Indeed. The Tories are toxic and the voters want to puke them up. 2024 will be a purge
We are repeating the 1970s but with greater political volatility. We have the same national malaise. Same poisoned arguments about Europe. A Cold War with Russia. Strikes are back. All parties feel clueless
On that basis Starmer’s Labour will be the Wilson-Callaghan government of 74-79 and we can expect national revival under Thatcher-Badenoch by the end of the decade
If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
I expected more from Sunak. His lack of experience and support is pretty debilitating for the Tories. It’s as if they have the administrators in.
It's the lack of political capital.
Johnson started with a lot, topped up by the 2019 election, but spent half on his damaging and dishonest delivery of Brexit and frittered away the rest through his bad behaviour.
Truss started with very little, having no mandate from voters and not being the MPs' choice, and promptly went all-in on her loopy budget, losing all her chips.
Sunak has no mandate from voters, was clearly the members' second choice (probably lower), and only got the job after Truss self-destructed. And the Johnson fiasco followed by the Truss fiasco have pushed Tory poll ratings down to rock bottom, giving Sunak little chance of building capital from electoral success.
This coming May is going to be a bloodbath for Tory councillors and we surely can pencil in another internal Tory crisis for the summer?
Sunak does have in his favour however May only won 28% in the 2019 local elections anyway. Indeed when the 2023 local elections seats were last up the Tories lost over 1000 councillors so are starting from a low base anyway, even if they lose a few more to Labour
I've overheard people in the street angrily shouting about the Conservatives. And in shops. Several times it has happened of late and by no means in typical leftie or Labour areas.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
Every morning the same old bollocks. What a strange phenomenon you are making up crap.
Some people have an amazing ability, it is mainly politicians too, to regularly come across people who share their worldview and be able to then use them in debates and discussions to reinforce that view.
It’s a wonderful gift.
I know, last couple of mornings I was overhearing several different people in Waitrose who said they are tired of people posting anecdotes on internet forums that align perfectly with the poster's worldview.
You can still afford to shop in Waitrose?
I think you should send us all a fiver to help with the cost of living crisis.
I thought TSE was a noble Northerner, one of a few of us here. A Waitrose in the North is as rare as hens teeth.
This was my definite impression after visiting Hartlepool in October. They just like Johnson. Fuck knows why but they do and feel he was done dirty by Sunak.
Travel to the Red Wall narrows the mind. You should try it.
With these sort of poll figures, what odds on a pre-election comeback for BJ? Everyone’s forgotten about covid and the parties by now I’d have thought. And really, he broke the rules because he knew at an instinctive level that it was all bullshit to begin with.
I’m terrified of a Starmer or Starmer/Sturgeon govt because I suspect the smallest pulse of graphs out of Sage would be enough to rush the nation back under house arrest at the expense of our children. I also think if Starmer was PM this Parliament we’d all still be wearing masks in public spaces. Hard to forget his sanctimonious face peeping out from an oversized mask in Parliament long after everyone inside had been vaccinated.
Boris meanwhile has I think learnt his lesson and next time would tell the unhireables like Valance and that communist woman where to go. This isn’t as fringe a risk as you’d think. Witness the bed wetting about China’s exit wave. And note that a potential pandemic causing novel virus seems to emerge around every five years.
If he makes it through the Parliamentary Ombudsman investigation with a clean bill of health there’s a chance.
However he is probably going to lose his seat in 2024/5
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64116796
They're lucky this isn't a more volatile country or we'd have been out on the streets.
Lots of detail in this Yglesias piece.
https://www.slowboring.com/p/russia-1990s
I do take polls taken over the holiday period with a bit of salt. I mean, the last remaining British tories are probably off skiing or in Barbados.
Nevertheless, the Conservatives are in for an absolute shellacking. Sunak's honeymoon is over. The longer they drag this farce out, the worse they will fare.
I continue to think they will be in the 100-150 seat range with the lower end quite possible.
Never in my life have I heard anything like this visceral anger spilling out into public places.
They're in for an absolute trouncing.
First time I saw it I thought I needed to cut down on the booze a bit.
A zombie government of weirdos and nonentities is not going to revive.
Keir Starmer has done pretty much everything to ensure that the constituency to which you refer will feel relatively safe under Labour.
But when you have stories of disabled elderly lying injured in their homes and unable to get an ambulance, or others stranded in corridors in A&E for 48 hours, then you are I'm afraid missing another vital element of concern for people of that age. Not many of them have private health care. And I could add the spiralling costs of food and energy etc. etc.
It is FAR worse than 1997 when the economy was booming. Now it's tanking. Everything that could go wrong, is.
It will be a bloodbath at the election on a scale you have never seen before. It will re-write the annals and reset 'precedent' until the next event comes along to rewrite precedent.
In the story above, it's interesting to see that officials were very sceptical (rightly, with hindsight), and that Putin's words were not consistent with their actions. This is perhaps why any attempt to bring Russia "in" were doomed to failure. Besides, much of the large amounts of money we did send went straight into pockets to make the oligarchs.
That was a massive mistake, which ignored the huge differences in culture and history, both economic and political, for the Soviet Union.
A large part of the was Jeffrey Sachs, whom bizarrely the Lancet recently chose to chair their ‘Covid Commission’.
There was a time that claiming particular pollsters were biased was quite a serious PB offence.
And with 18 months of more nhs disaster stories to come it’s not going to be difficult to be better than the other option.
Rishahb Pant dozed off whilst driving his car and this is what it looked like.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/64124242
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/rishabh-pant-injured-in-car-crash-on-way-to-delhi-1351631
The photos of his car are quite something, and the account of the accident itself is - intriguing.
Fortunately he survived although he is apparently quite badly hurt.
I very much hope for his sake that is what happened.
Johnson started with a lot, topped up by the 2019 election, but spent half on his damaging and dishonest delivery of Brexit and frittered away the rest through his bad behaviour.
Truss started with very little, having no mandate from voters and not being the MPs' choice, and promptly went all-in on her loopy budget, losing all her chips.
Sunak has no mandate from voters, was clearly the members' second choice (probably lower), and only got the job after Truss self-destructed. And the Johnson fiasco followed by the Truss fiasco have pushed Tory poll ratings down to rock bottom, giving Sunak little chance of building capital from electoral success.
This coming May is going to be a bloodbath for Tory councillors and we surely can pencil in another internal Tory crisis for the summer?
Though Leondamus comes close.
The show runners should spin off 1883 into a multi-season drama of its own. Trouble is they’ve killed off most of the best characters
It does happen, nearly happened to me once, I got all light headed once driving a car (was mostly diabetes and which led to tiredness), on a motorway no less.
I had the wits to pull over and ring my father to come pick me up.
Alas the rozzers showed what absolute roasters they are in the meantime.
Gessen's 'Future is History' is a great source - or there is that recent somewhat peculiarly made BBC documentary series, both looking at the transformation in Russia through ordinary lives.
Nor do I believe that the dire state of public services is necessarily the handicap that everyone thinks it is: just as with Covid, there are a certain number of poor blighters who really suffered from or died with it, and therefore a cohort of enraged survivors and relatives who will never forgive the Conservatives for their handling of the situation - but that's not most people. Most older voters (and especially the better off ones, who are likely on average to be fitter and may be able to afford private care to queue jump for routine operations,) have not ended up spending years in agony waiting to get their dodgy joints fixed, or been stranded outside a hospital for 40 hours in the back of an ambulance. For them, it's still "the economy, stupid," and they have been insulated from all the worst effects of the post-2008 incomes disaster by a combination of the triple lock, skyrocketing house prices and older style, more generous occupational pensions.
There are a lot of people who have done very nicely, thank you out of the Conservative years, and that's before getting on to the culture wars horror show. Much of the population still thinks Brexit was the right decision. Much of the population still wants the boat people problem to go away, and not by adopting the "just let them all in" solution that it'll be all too easy to convince them that Labour would be in favour of. Yes, Keir Starmer has managed his affairs as LOTO quite competently, and substantial gains seem to be nailed on - but as for an epochal victory, I just don't buy it. The minted old gits will weigh their options come election time, and stick with the devil they know. Watch.
Rishi Sunak is poised to halve financial support on energy bills for businesses, amid concerns about the cost.
When she was prime minister Liz Truss announced a six-month package of support for businesses in October that capped wholesale energy prices on electricity and gas. That is expected to cost £18 billion by the time it ends on March 20.
Next month Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, will announce a 12-month extension to the scheme but with the level of support more than halved, amid concerns about taxpayers’ exposure to fluctuating energy prices.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-to-halve-support-that-helps-businesses-pay-fuel-bills-ks87xnbj8
Exclusive: Pinchas Goldschmidt warns Jewish population will be made scapegoat for hardship caused by war
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/30/exiled-chief-rabbi-jews-should-leave-russia-while-they-can-pinchas-goldschmidt-war-ukraine
https://twitter.com/sussex_society/status/1608402581641904132?t=2ubSoC9TdU6SC60iyxgFxg&s=19
Millions of homeowners refixing their mortgages next year face an average annual increase of £3,000 in repayments, according to research which warns that 2023 will bring additional financial hardship for borrowers.
A report by the Resolution Foundation think tank said that the two million homeowners who will have to refix their mortgages next year face the highest interest rates since 2008. An average fixed-rate repayment will increase from £750 a month to £1,000.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-to-halve-support-that-helps-businesses-pay-fuel-bills-ks87xnbj8
Lib Dem Liz Truss really was the greatest double agent since Juan Pujol García.
"NEW: Across the West Midlands last night there were 561 999 patients waiting for an ambulance at around 10.20pm - while at the same time 138 @OFFICIALWMAS ambulances were waiting for over an hour outside hospitals in the region - not critical incident declare though:"
"In the last seven days across the West Midlands 3,228 ambulance patients were waiting over an hour in the back of an ambulance - one outside the @sathPRH
waited over 30 hours - 118 people were stuck for 12 hours:"
https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1608438646637723648?t=EuOY-X6xaaEGfUqp9yBq_Q&s=19
This isn't strikes, it is just lack of capacity in Hospitals.
Animal charities fear that 2023 will bring a wave abandoned horses and ponies as owners find it increasingly difficult to pay for hay and vet bills.
Figures from the RSPCA’s animal kindness index 2022, a UK-wide survey, showed the cost of living crisis is potentially “one of the biggest threats to the welfare of animals across the country”.
Dogs, cats, rabbits and lizards have been handed in, and now the charity has said it has had a rise in horses entering their care, often in “very poor” condition.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pet-horses-abandoned-as-owners-struggle-to-pay-for-vet-bills-and-food-86lx5gb32
It’s a wonderful gift.
Either way, it's going to be a fascinating couple of years politically.
My own view is that until a pollster has had their methodology tested at a general election, their polls should be given significantly less weight than longer-established pollsters whose idiosyncrasies are well known.
https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1608228867680141312
Not exactly news, as much the same was reported back in 2019. But a useful reminder.
Trump Discussed Pulling U.S. From NATO, Aides Say Amid New Concerns Over Russia
Jan. 14, 2019
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html
Therefore there's a big disaffacted constituency whose instinct is not to bother - engaging some of these is the explanation why Corbyn managed to come in off the radar in 2017. It is hard to see Starmer doing the same.
Talking of crashes, looks like Pant was a lucky boy to get out alive. Let's hope his brilliant career isn't affected and he learns to stop doing whatever it was he was up to at 5.30 am.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05542-y
… Here we carried out complete autopsies on 44 patients who died with COVID-19, with extensive sampling of the central nervous system in 11 of these patients, to map and quantify the distribution, replication and cell-type specificity of SARS-CoV-2 across the human body, including the brain, from acute infection to more than seven months following symptom onset. We show that SARS-CoV-2 is widely distributed, predominantly among patients who died with severe COVID-19, and that virus replication is present in multiple respiratory and non-respiratory tissues, including the brain, early in infection. Further, we detected persistent SARS-CoV-2 RNA in multiple anatomic sites, including throughout the brain, as late as 230 days following symptom onset in one case. Despite extensive distribution of SARS-CoV-2 RNA throughout the body, we observed little evidence of inflammation or direct viral cytopathology outside the respiratory tract. Our data indicate that in some patients SARS-CoV-2 can cause systemic infection and persist in the body for months...
I'd expected to have spent half the day on the phone based on the scare stories you hear.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/dec/30/hard-truths-conservatives-boris-johnson-disastrous-leader
TLDR: they shoulda stuck with Bozza
He's had a lifetime to learn to behave properly, and never did. He would simply have lasted until the next scandal. Or until this inquiry which may well bury him for good, with any luck.
If that goes against him then he’d have had to have stood down of he was PM
I think you should send us all a fiver to help with the cost of living crisis.
Santos also falsely claimed he’s the grandson of Holocaust survivors in his campaign launch video on June 10, 2021 (with imagery of the death camps):
“I've seen how socialism destroys people's lives because my grandparents survived the Holocaust.”
https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1608244468494245888
https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/1608578298136731648
Griffin also testified she was told Trump tried to fire CIA Dir Haspel & install Kash Patel, but Haspel had put a suicide pact in place so IC leaders would resign if that happened, forcing Trump to back down: "allegedly, for about 14 minutes, Kash was actually the CIA director.”
But I'm sure the likes of Leon and TheKitchenCabinet will bang on about Biden being unfit for office whilst not mentioning Trump's unfitness for office.
Scotland is another big factor. There have been small indications of Labour creeping back there, and if that continues a Labour OM becomes much more likely.
Yeltsin was no Liberal, he is the leader who destroyed the Russian Parliament with tank fire. Putin is not just a Russian nationalist, he leads a diverse coalition of interests.
The truth is that, far from humiliating Russia, the collective West has been happy to embrace whichever government emerges in the Kremlin (and generally fears any change). Yet this preference for stability has helped to ensure that there has been no moral reckoning in Russia over the years, as there was in South Africa´s truth and reconciliation commission. The idea that members of the Gestapo would emerge as rulers of post-war Germany is appalling, yet that is close to what has happened in Russia and the West accepted it. The KGB and its allies have been free to rob and rule Russia regardless. Russia is a country with no justice and without justice, freedom has little chance. The crisis in Moscow is a moral one, as much as an economic or political one.
Perhaps if the collective West were to stiffen their spines and insist on their own founding principles, including the UN charter, it might demonstrate that the West is not just based on hypocritical and self-serving greed but actually does believe in the principles of justice and freedom that it says it does. That example would do a lot of good in the darkness of Russia right now, and if you think this is idealistic, remember it was the 1975 Helsinki final act that started the dissident movements that ultimately destroyed Communism in the rest of Europe.
They then overthrew him with Truss whose more libertarian slash tax, including for the rich line while not cutting spending sent the markets into free fall and lost the Tory reputation for economic competence.
Now we have Rishi who is more competent but the return to Cameron and Osborne era austerity he and Hunt are pursuing, including even ruling out a payrise for nurses in line with the national average (even if pensioners, the lowest paid and those on benefits have been protected) has turned off the redwall.
There has also been further leakage to RefUK. Under Boris they were only on 1 to 3%, now they are on up to 8%
It's a paint-by-numbers pastiche of Blairism, but without the messianic motive force from Blair, and without the superficially decent economic performance helping to make the numbers add up.
There's no analysis of what's wrong with the country or vision of how to fix it, or determination to create a lasting change. It's all short-term tactical shuffling about of diminishing amounts of money and mouthing of soundbites in the hope of retaining political office. They're all empty suits.
I’m terrified of a Starmer or Starmer/Sturgeon govt because I suspect the smallest pulse of graphs out of Sage would be enough to rush the nation back under house arrest at the expense of our children. I also think if Starmer was PM this Parliament we’d all still be wearing masks in public spaces. Hard to forget his sanctimonious face peeping out from an oversized mask in Parliament long after everyone inside had been vaccinated.
Boris meanwhile has I think learnt his lesson and next time would tell the unhireables like Valance and that communist woman where to go. This isn’t as fringe a risk as you’d think. Witness the bed wetting about China’s exit wave. And note that a potential pandemic causing novel virus seems to emerge around every five years.
Had he said Lidl I’d have believed him !
We are repeating the 1970s but with greater political volatility. We have the same national malaise. Same poisoned arguments about Europe. A Cold War with Russia. Strikes are back. All parties feel clueless
On that basis Starmer’s Labour will be the Wilson-Callaghan government of 74-79 and we can expect national revival under Thatcher-Badenoch by the end of the decade
Centre for a fifth set of stumps?
There's a Waitrose in Sheffield.
https://www.waitrose.com/bf_home/bf/695.html
Travel to the Red Wall narrows the mind. You should try it.
However he is probably going to lose his seat in 2024/5