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Now a poll has the Tories BELOW 20% – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2023 in General
Now a poll has the Tories BELOW 20% – politicalbetting.com

New from @PeoplePolling 28 Dec: Cons on 19%Lab 45%Con 19%Green 9%Lib Dem 8%Reform 8%(From press release)

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    RefUK tied with the LDs too
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,521
    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now
  • I guess it could flip again, Labour has done it from a similar position, why not the Tories?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,016
    Hey ho. This is not going as well as Rishi or Ed Davey would hope.
  • Bets on the Sun or the Times supporting Labour?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,521
    BAXTERED:

    Labour: 502
    Tories: 46
    Libs: 28

    SNP Official Opposition on 50
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Where's the other 11%?
    Is this a UK wide poll?
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 929

    I guess it could flip again, Labour has done it from a similar position, why not the Tories?

    Mmm, but what would have to be the scale of the event to provoke that big a turnaround in two years? Mere "inflation reduces and economy looks better" would help but surely isn't sufficient to do more than reduce the losses from wipeout to bad or middling?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    Yougov however have the Tories on 23% and Opinium on 29% in their latest polls and both have stronger track records

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
  • I guess it could flip again, Labour has done it from a similar position, why not the Tories?

    Bicoz. Da toriz iz fukt innit?

    Dey really is.

    Hope you're OK chb.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    Leon said:

    BAXTERED:

    Labour: 502
    Tories: 46
    Libs: 28

    SNP Official Opposition on 50

    Er... current boundaries?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    An air of inevitability is developing. Remember the economy is going to get worse.
  • I guess it could flip again, Labour has done it from a similar position, why not the Tories?

    All it would take is for Starmer to be involved in a scandal that should end his career, Starmer refusing to budge before finally going, and his replacement to be revealed as a nutter who has to resign about six weeks after taking the job.

    Plus something else to balance out the lack of a "being in power whilst people gradually feel poorer" factor that has dragged the Conservatives down by a point a month since Summer 2021.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    Yougov however have the Tories on 23% and Opinium on 29% in their latest polls and both have stronger track records

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
    That's ok then. Nothing to worry about.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,521
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Leon said:

    BAXTERED:

    Labour: 502
    Tories: 46
    Libs: 28

    SNP Official Opposition on 50

    New boundaries save Tories.

    Labour 502
    Tories 53
    SNP 48
    LD 24.

    Amusingly LD benefitting heavily (relatively) from FPTP. Greens get 1 Reform 0.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    Fortunately for Labour they will also likely get an extra 5% from the Green vote collapsing due to tactical voting.

    Else they might be struggling to get over the 500 seat line.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    People Polling have been consistently the most pro-Labour results of all the pollsters.
    Amusingly, they are employed by GB News.
  • CON 0% soon? 😈
  • This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    PP tends to give high RefUK and low Cons scores; the 14% for the Conservatives just before Truss resigned was theirs. But the changes within their series ought to be about right; they're wrong but they look consistently wrong, which can be more useful than being inconsistently right.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    No, there will not be a general election until Spring 2024 at the earliest, maybe even December 2024 or January 2025. That gives the government more time to reduce the deficit, wait for a peaceful settlement in Ukraine to reduce inflation and look at tax cuts for average earners.

    The best PM numbers are also much better for Sunak and unless RefUK overtakes them there is zero chance of a Canada 1993 style result for the Tories
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,521
    Again, THIS is the best article I have seen on the ruination that awaits the Tory party

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/voters-want-to-hurt-the-tories-at-the-next-election/


    There is no reason to vote for them, unless you are a shrivelled pensioner in a big house in Surrey. They stand for nothing, they are worth no loyalty, they inspire no following, they are as incapable of fighting Wokeness as they are of stopping the dinghies

    They need to be hurled into painful oblivion, and that is exactly what British voters are preparing to do
  • checklist said:

    I guess it could flip again, Labour has done it from a similar position, why not the Tories?

    Bicoz. Da toriz iz fukt innit?

    Dey really is.

    Hope you're OK chb.
    Do I know you matey? :)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    Canada '93 requires the position not to improve very much.
    Then, Farage, sensing an inevitable Tory defeat, getting involved and seriously putting the boot into them.
    Not impossible. But we are a long way from there.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,521

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Yes. If the polls are still like this in mid-late 2023, I can see the Tories reaching for Boris in panic. Probably won't work, might make things worse, but then - if you are polling in the 19-24% range - you will think: how can it be WORSE?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    Leon said:

    Again, THIS is the best article I have seen on the ruination that awaits the Tory party

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/voters-want-to-hurt-the-tories-at-the-next-election/


    There is no reason to vote for them, unless you are a shrivelled pensioner in a big house in Surrey. They stand for nothing, they are worth no loyalty, they inspire no following, they are as incapable of fighting Wokeness as they are of stopping the dinghies

    They need to be hurled into painful oblivion, and that is exactly what British voters are preparing to do

    The British people hate the Tories on a cellular level.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    No, there will not be a general election until Spring 2024 at the earliest, maybe even December 2024 or January 2025.

    The best PM numbers are also much better for Sunak and unless RefUK overtakes them there is zero chance of a Canada 1993 style result for the Tories
    If you plug these numbers in to Electoral Calculus and apply a bit of tactical voting you get:

    Lab 528, SNP 48, LD 28, Con 23, PC 3 Green 1, Ref 0, Other 1, NI 18
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    PP tends to give high RefUK and low Cons scores; the 14% for the Conservatives just before Truss resigned was theirs. But the changes within their series ought to be about right; they're wrong but they look consistently wrong, which can be more useful than being inconsistently right.
    Ok fair enough.
    Does anyone know the changes with the last poll?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Not with RefUK on 8% and almost all of them having voted for Boris in 2019.

    However I think some of them will come back under Sunak anyway
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,521

    Leon said:

    Again, THIS is the best article I have seen on the ruination that awaits the Tory party

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/voters-want-to-hurt-the-tories-at-the-next-election/


    There is no reason to vote for them, unless you are a shrivelled pensioner in a big house in Surrey. They stand for nothing, they are worth no loyalty, they inspire no following, they are as incapable of fighting Wokeness as they are of stopping the dinghies

    They need to be hurled into painful oblivion, and that is exactly what British voters are preparing to do

    The British people hate the Tories on a cellular level.
    lol. But yes, they do

    Fucksake I absolutely loathe Woke Labour, but I loathe the pointless stupid Tories almost as much. And I will take some real pleasure when they get their overdue come-uppance

    That, for instance, was not the case in 1997. I accepted then that the Tories were tired and clapped out and it was time for a change, but I did not relish a Tory collapse

    This time, I do, in a macabre way. And I am on the right. So I can easily imagine what others think. "Burning contempt"?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Yes. If the polls are still like this in mid-late 2023, I can see the Tories reaching for Boris in panic. Probably won't work, might make things worse, but then - if you are polling in the 19-24% range - you will think: how can it be WORSE?
    The one person I know who would vote Tory at the next GE is my 90yo father-in-law - it's an article of faith for him.

    But if Johnson came back I think even he would abstain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    No, there will not be a general election until Spring 2024 at the earliest, maybe even December 2024 or January 2025.

    The best PM numbers are also much better for Sunak and unless RefUK overtakes them there is zero chance of a Canada 1993 style result for the Tories
    If you plug these numbers in to Electoral Calculus and apply a bit of tactical voting you get:

    Lab 528, SNP 48, LD 28, Con 23, PC 3 Green 1, Ref 0, Other 1, NI 18
    And in 1993 the Tories in Canada got only 2 seats.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    No, there will not be a general election until Spring 2024 at the earliest, maybe even December 2024 or January 2025.

    The best PM numbers are also much better for Sunak and unless RefUK overtakes them there is zero chance of a Canada 1993 style result for the Tories
    If you plug these numbers in to Electoral Calculus and apply a bit of tactical voting you get:

    Lab 528, SNP 48, LD 28, Con 23, PC 3 Green 1, Ref 0, Other 1, NI 18
    And in 1993 the Tories in Canada got only 2 seats.

    You've got me there.

    Mind you, there's still time :-)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,804
    Deaths come in threes

    Pele

    Vivienne Westwood

    The Conservative and Unionist Party
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    edited December 2022

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    PP tends to give high RefUK and low Cons scores; the 14% for the Conservatives just before Truss resigned was theirs. But the changes within their series ought to be about right; they're wrong but they look consistently wrong, which can be more useful than being inconsistently right.
    Ok fair enough.
    Does anyone know the changes with the last poll?
    Con -3
    Lab +1
    Green +3
    LD Ref. NC.

    Last People Polling poll.
  • This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    PP tends to give high RefUK and low Cons scores; the 14% for the Conservatives just before Truss resigned was theirs. But the changes within their series ought to be about right; they're wrong but they look consistently wrong, which can be more useful than being inconsistently right.
    Ok fair enough.
    Does anyone know the changes with the last poll?
    Their last poll was 21 December, L46 C22 LD8 SNP5 G6 Ref8

    So Labour down 1, Conservatives down 3, Greens up 3. Amusing noise, but probably noise.
  • checklist said:

    I guess it could flip again, Labour has done it from a similar position, why not the Tories?

    Bicoz. Da toriz iz fukt innit?

    Dey really is.

    Hope you're OK chb.
    Do I know you matey? :)
    Nah, I am new here. Just full of well wishing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    edited December 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Deaths come in threes

    Pele

    Vivienne Westwood

    The Conservative and Unionist Party

    One was prone to flights of brexity delusion, and having cast off its 80s radicalism, is now more famous for extravagant displays of bondage-inspired motley and age inappropriate relations.

    The other was Vivienne Westwood.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    I guess it could flip again, Labour has done it from a similar position, why not the Tories?

    'Cos they're the most crap government any of us has ever known?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    edited December 2022

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    PP tends to give high RefUK and low Cons scores; the 14% for the Conservatives just before Truss resigned was theirs. But the changes within their series ought to be about right; they're wrong but they look consistently wrong, which can be more useful than being inconsistently right.
    Ok fair enough.
    Does anyone know the changes with the last poll?
    Their last poll was 21 December, L46 C22 LD8 SNP5 G6 Ref8

    So Labour down 1, Conservatives down 3, Greens up 3. Amusing noise, but probably noise.
    Deleted
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623
    Good that People Polling poll people. As opposed to, say, dogs, bees, or AIs, or something.
  • Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514

    Good that People Polling poll people. As opposed to, say, dogs, bees, or AIs, or something.

    ...or deltas
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    checklist said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,057
    checklist said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
    We gave Australia our convicts.

    Australia gave us their swans,
  • checklist said:

    checklist said:

    I guess it could flip again, Labour has done it from a similar position, why not the Tories?

    Bicoz. Da toriz iz fukt innit?

    Dey really is.

    Hope you're OK chb.
    Do I know you matey? :)
    Nah, I am new here. Just full of well wishing.
    No prob, only existing members tend to call me chb so just wondered. You can also call me Horse which I prefer :):)

    Anyway, welcome fellow traveller
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,514
    Tories should get a new leader; new leaders always get a honeymoon bounce.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,804
    Now confirmed that Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan have been arrested in Romania in a human trafficking probe.

    https://twitter.com/durdenlebowski/status/1608571485916102656/video/1

    Apparently his inability to hold himself back from responding after Greta dunked him into the center of the earth is part of how Romanian authorities found him. Go figure https://twitter.com/esqueer_/status/1608580052220014592
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,804

    Tories should get a new leader; new leaders always get a honeymoon bounce.

    Joris Bohnson wants the gig...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    edited December 2022
    checklist said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
    Martin Mere. Lovely.
    Used to be the biggest lake in England.
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Not with RefUK on 8% and almost all of them having voted for Boris in 2019.

    However I think some of them will come back under Sunak anyway
    They might not come back if there are RefUK candidates next time where there were no BXP candidates in 2019.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,804
    ...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    "Tributes to a Magician" indeed.
  • dixiedean said:

    checklist said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
    Martin Mere. Lovely.
    Used to be the biggest lake in England.
    Bloody wet still. Hundreds of acres of leeks in the fields.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Tories should get a new leader; new leaders always get a honeymoon bounce.

    Joris Bohnson wants the gig...
    We know about Boris and his bounces. Honeymoons aren't stricly necessary.

    Though if the Privileges report goes against him and he becomes unavailable, who gets the Hail Mary pass? Or do Conservative MPs accept they are on the lemming march over the cliff?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,623

    Tories should get a new leader; new leaders always get a honeymoon bounce.

    They should change the leadership contest rules and have a new leader every week now until the election - bunnyhop leader bounce to victory. Or just confuse the electorate.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,549
    In World War Two the average percentage saying they would vote Conservative was forty six. Today it is nineteen. N-n-n-n-nineteen.
  • In World War Two the average percentage saying they would vote Conservative was forty six. Today it is nineteen. N-n-n-n-nineteen.

    Brilliantly, there was opinion polling done in the UK during the Second World War;

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1945_United_Kingdom_general_election

    There's even evidence of swingback!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,549
    dixiedean said:

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    PP tends to give high RefUK and low Cons scores; the 14% for the Conservatives just before Truss resigned was theirs. But the changes within their series ought to be about right; they're wrong but they look consistently wrong, which can be more useful than being inconsistently right.
    Ok fair enough.
    Does anyone know the changes with the last poll?
    Con -3
    Lab +1
    Green +3
    LD Ref. NC.

    Last People Polling poll.
    Used to Vote Blue, Gone Green?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,340
    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    If Rishi goes, it'll either be Kemi or Boris again.
  • When the UK came out of lockdown, visitors to cinemas and other venues such as pubs and clubs, were required to fill in so-called ‘track and trace’ documents. In the event of an infection, government ‘track and trace’ teams were then able to directly contact people who were in the vicinity and ask them to isolate to prevent the spread.

    According to UKCA, the suspected cammer arrested in July completed one of these forms with his details and signed it.

    https://torrentfreak.com/pirate-movie-cammers-plagued-uk-cinemas-after-covid-shut-them-down-221229/
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,463
    Today's Washington Post has a summary article on what will happen to the American economy in 2023.
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/12/29/economy-2023-outlook-inflation-prices/

    And their conclusion is . . . (drum roll) . . . that we don't know:
    "The 2022 economy was a jumble of flip-flopping growth, decades-high inflation and fears that a steep slowdown could plunge the country into recession. (It didn’t.)

    But big questions remain, and economists say we’re in for an even more fraught guessing game in 2023."

    One of the positive things for the US economy is that, as of October, there were still more than 10 million job openings.

    Not being an economist paid to make forecasts, I won't venture an opinion -- and economists who are have my sympathy.

    (Full discloure: As a retiree I am probably personally better off when the economy is in a mild recession -- especially considering the almost 9 percent increase we social security recipients will be getting in January. But I still prefer growth enough so that job seekers are able to find jobs, easily. Especially the young people just entering the work force.)
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    dixiedean said:

    checklist said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
    Martin Mere. Lovely.
    Used to be the biggest lake in England.
    Aren't all the lake district lakes bigger?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,463
    If the US economy grows, that is likely to be good for the UK economy, and for the economies of our trading problems, generally.

    I don't know enough details about your elections since WW II to be certain, but on general principles, I would expect a more prosperous UK to be good for the incumbent party.

    (Which is why I just wrote the previous post.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,340

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    Why do you doubt information posted by Goodwin?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,829
    Andy_JS said:

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    Why do you doubt information posted by Goodwin?
    Because he’s a client journalist for REFUK posing as a pollster and social scientist.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Not with RefUK on 8% and almost all of them having voted for Boris in 2019.

    However I think some of them will come back under Sunak anyway
    They might not come back if there are RefUK candidates next time where there were no BXP candidates in 2019.
    Given RefUK were only polling 1 to 3% in June before Boris went they would.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919

    Andy_JS said:

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    Why do you doubt information posted by Goodwin?
    Because he’s a client journalist for REFUK posing as a pollster and social scientist.
    Goodwin is Farage's favourite political scientist on GB news alongside Starkey, his favourite historian
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    If Rishi goes, it'll either be Kemi or Boris again.
    There is not going to be a change anytime soon. Sunak and Hunt have at least bought some stability and competence.

    In the unlikely event Sunak was removed it would be just before the 2024 general election campaign and almost certainly only in favour of Boris by coronation
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,521
    Bloody hell. 1883. Brutal, but brilliant
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    Roger said:

    dixiedean said:

    checklist said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    The same pollster had the Tories on just 14% under Truss.

    But we are now several weeks nearer the actual election

    With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster

    I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
    It's hard to disagree with that.

    Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
    Saw a black swan yesterday. Literally. Thing is, I was explaining to my son it was just a cygnet and due to turn white on maturity but then read the signage, this being at Martin Mere, and it was an actual black swan.
    Martin Mere. Lovely.
    Used to be the biggest lake in England.
    Aren't all the lake district lakes bigger?
    Before it was drained for farming.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:

    Bloody hell. 1883. Brutal, but brilliant

    This is the prequel to the massively popular Yellowstone, which so much of the media industry reviewers said this it was somewhere between redneck trash telly and quite good but too white, too manly and not enough diversity.....

    Thought the last bit was a rather strange criticism, given it is about ranchers in Montana...nobody makes similar complaints about Empire.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,911
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    Why do you doubt information posted by Goodwin?
    Because he’s a client journalist for REFUK posing as a pollster and social scientist.
    Goodwin is Farage's favourite political scientist on GB news alongside Starkey, his favourite historian
    From my experience at the LSE, Starkey wasn't really anyone's favourite anything.
    Not liked.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 46,521

    Leon said:

    Bloody hell. 1883. Brutal, but brilliant

    This is the prequel to the massively popular Yellowstone, which so much of the media industry reviewers said this it was somewhere between redneck trash telly and quite good but too white, too manly and not enough diversity.....

    Thought the last bit was a rather strange criticism, given it is about ranchers in Montana...nobody makes similar complaints about Empire.
    It is superb. Some of the best TV drama of the last few years. EPIC

    No spoilers please. Heading into the last episode...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Bloody hell. 1883. Brutal, but brilliant

    This is the prequel to the massively popular Yellowstone, which so much of the media industry reviewers said this it was somewhere between redneck trash telly and quite good but too white, too manly and not enough diversity.....

    Thought the last bit was a rather strange criticism, given it is about ranchers in Montana...nobody makes similar complaints about Empire.
    It is superb. Some of the best TV drama of the last few years. EPIC

    No spoilers please. Heading into the last episode...
    Perhaps the writers of the likes of Ring of Power and the Witcher could learn a thing or two.....people seem to quite like it when the story is actually good and believable representation of the world it is set in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,546
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    If Rishi goes, it'll either be Kemi or Boris again.
    There is not going to be a change anytime soon. Sunak and Hunt have at least bought some stability and competence.

    In the unlikely event Sunak was removed it would be just before the 2024 general election campaign and almost certainly only in favour of Boris by coronation
    Didn't work when the Australian Labor Party tried it, wouldn't work for them.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,348
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    Why do you doubt information posted by Goodwin?
    Because he’s a client journalist for REFUK posing as a pollster and social scientist.
    Goodwin is Farage's favourite political scientist on GB news alongside Starkey, his favourite historian
    Yes Goodwin is a hard right client academic whose bias is as blatant as some of the worst hard left equivalents.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    If Rishi goes, it'll either be Kemi or Boris again.
    There is not going to be a change anytime soon. Sunak and Hunt have at least bought some stability and competence.

    In the unlikely event Sunak was removed it would be just before the 2024 general election campaign and almost certainly only in favour of Boris by coronation
    Didn't work when the Australian Labor Party tried it, wouldn't work for them.
    Not entirely true, Rudd halved Abbott's poll lead by election day 2013 from where Gillard left it
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    Why do you doubt information posted by Goodwin?
    Because he’s a client journalist for REFUK posing as a pollster and social scientist.
    Goodwin is Farage's favourite political scientist on GB news alongside Starkey, his favourite historian
    From my experience at the LSE, Starkey wasn't really anyone's favourite anything.
    Not liked.
    Starkey only left Cambridge for LSE anyway mainly for the gay scene and cruising on Hampstead Heath

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2004/oct/10/history.academicexperts
  • 3 years ago today: An 'urgent notice' from the Wuhan Health Commission warns doctors about an unidentified illness in the city. The internal notice is later shared on social media, making it the first word of the COVID-19 outbreak
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,964

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    Well, yes, it's an outlier and there's something odd about a methodology that gives such a high combined score to the Greens and Reform, but, still. If the Tories weren't doing so badly than an outlier like this would see them - shock! - on under 30%.

    That a poll has to put the Tories on under 20% to be an outlier is a pretty good sign of how bad their underlying position is.
  • I so passionately recall the conversations on here which said Labour would never get to 20 points ahead and that Keir Starmer must resign. Ah, good times
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,340
    edited December 2022
    Switch on GB News: right-wing commentator speaking in favour of a New Zealand style smoking ban on everyone over the next few decades.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,964

    If the US economy grows, that is likely to be good for the UK economy, and for the economies of our trading problems, generally.

    I don't know enough details about your elections since WW II to be certain, but on general principles, I would expect a more prosperous UK to be good for the incumbent party.

    (Which is why I just wrote the previous post.)

    The experience of 1992 is seared into the electoral psyche in the UK and contradicts what would otherwise seem to be obvious. How did the Tories wrong again after the early 90s recession?

    Certainly I would say that economic credibility is important for an incumbent government (and an opposition), but confidence that things are improving seems to play well for a Labour opposition. If things are really bad there seems to be a school of thought that Labour could make things worse.

    The Truss Event seems to have irreparably destroyed Tory economic credibility for the foreseeable future. They will receive no credit for an economic turnaround. They are done.
  • - ”NOW A POLL HAS THE TORIES BELOW 20%”

    Where Scotland leads, England follows.
  • Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    Happened in Canada.
  • 11% for unspecified others? If we are generous and give SNP 5%, where does the other 6% go. Something not right with those totals.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,919

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    Happened in Canada.
    Only as the Canadian Tories were overtaken by the Canadian Reform Party which has still not happened here. Eventually the 2 merged in 2003 to form today's Conservative Party of Canada
  • Scott_xP said:

    Deaths come in threes

    Pele

    Vivienne Westwood

    The Conservative and Unionist Party

    Two died today.

    The third died 23 June 2016.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 703
    TimS said:

    Taz said:

    So I just clicked on the link regards Vivien Westwood and now I see Pele has died too! Hopefully after my delayed flight I'll actually get home tonight even if I'm waiting for an hour at Cheltenham station.

    Yes, Pele is sadly no longer with us too.
    The weeks immediately before and after Christmas always seem to be peak celebrity death time. The onset of winter kind of explains that in the Northern Hemisphere, but not Pele.
    The usual explanation is that obituaries are noticed more - being featured more prominently - during the quieter news period around Christmas, but Westwood and especially Pelé are unquestionably big names.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,997

    Leon said:

    The Tories are headed for extermination. This should seriously worry them as an actual prospect, now

    Happened in Canada.
    Sort of meaningless though, because the CPC is not very distinguishable from the pre-93 Tories which after all contributed almost all the membership base east of the Prairies, all their Senators, etc. They've become more right-wing, but that wasn't the case in Stephen Harper's time, and he had been a Reform Party activist from the start - the Harper ministry, still the only CPC ministry in history, was looking to win the centrist median voter. But after Harper they took a lead from the other big North American conservative party.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Mid term.

    Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    Well, yes, it's an outlier and there's something odd about a methodology that gives such a high combined score to the Greens and Reform, but, still. If the Tories weren't doing so badly than an outlier like this would see them - shock! - on under 30%.

    That a poll has to put the Tories on under 20% to be an outlier is a pretty good sign of how bad their underlying position is.
    Well no actually. Not much of an outlier from a firm which serves up low Tory and high “other” totals as standard, more a case of close to MOE by this firms standard.

    And we have often discussed “the others” from this company’s polling before. Part of me asks why is it wrong? Yes it probably is but Can we compare with actual GE results data for others - independents, very minor party’s, looney’s, literal democrats ballot wreckers etc, all added up?

    Maybe we should be more sceptical of polls being wrong that has Labour or Tory’s in 50s when at GE neither will get 44% perhaps never even close to that - on basis of difference between 54 and 44 is 10% others come Election Day some poll firms add to the big two, People Polling take other at face value?

    The analysis that the clear uptake in Tory polling has not just lost momentum but stepped back is okay in my opinion. Why is a mixture of assessing Sunak and finding him wanting - a vote loser in different ways than Truss and Boris, he is adjudged to be inexperienced and not in control, also government arguments on strikes don’t wash with the voters, these two reasons are why the Tories will slip backwards in likely all polls over the coming weeks.
  • If you want boring and competent you have Keir Starmer.

    Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Jonathan said:

    Mid term.

    Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.

    I take it as no longer mid term but in the period build up to general election. Some PMs liked to have one after 4 years. I would like to see past comparison chart for government party % this many days into previous parliaments.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,964
    edited December 2022

    This is an outlier, or the methodology is bunk.

    I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.

    Well, yes, it's an outlier and there's something odd about a methodology that gives such a high combined score to the Greens and Reform, but, still. If the Tories weren't doing so badly than an outlier like this would see them - shock! - on under 30%.

    That a poll has to put the Tories on under 20% to be an outlier is a pretty good sign of how bad their underlying position is.
    Well no actually. Not much of an outlier from a firm which serves up low Tory and high “other” totals as standard, more a case of close to MOE by this firms standard.

    And we have often discussed “the others” from this company’s polling before. Part of me asks why is it wrong? Yes it probably is but Can we compare with actual GE results data for others - independents, very minor party’s, looney’s, literal democrats ballot wreckers etc, all added up?

    Maybe we should be more sceptical of polls being wrong that has Labour or Tory’s in 50s when at GE neither will get 44% perhaps never even close to that - on basis of difference between 54 and 44 is 10% others come Election Day some poll firms add to the big two, People Polling take other at face value?

    The analysis that the clear uptake in Tory polling has not just lost momentum but stepped back is okay in my opinion. Why is a mixture of assessing Sunak and finding him wanting - a vote loser in different ways than Truss and Boris, he is adjudged to be inexperienced and not in control, also government arguments on strikes don’t wash with the voters, these two reasons are why the Tories will slip backwards in likely all polls over the coming weeks.
    It's the first poll to put the Tories on under 20% for more than two months. It's an outlier. This is not worth disputing.

    The question for 2023 is: can Starmer seal the deal?

    A successful 2023 would see Starmer enthroned as the Prime Minister in waiting, his victory seen as inevitable, and a decisive shift in media coverage in his favour as a result.

    If Starmer has a bad 2023 then it's possible you might see voters casting around for other politicians to support to take down the Tories.
This discussion has been closed.