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Now a poll has the Tories BELOW 20% – politicalbetting.com
Now a poll has the Tories BELOW 20% – politicalbetting.com
New from @PeoplePolling 28 Dec: Cons on 19%Lab 45%Con 19%Green 9%Lib Dem 8%Reform 8%(From press release)
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Labour: 502
Tories: 46
Libs: 28
SNP Official Opposition on 50
Is this a UK wide poll?
Yougov however have the Tories on 23% and Opinium on 29% in their latest polls and both have stronger track records
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
Dey really is.
Hope you're OK chb.
Plus something else to balance out the lack of a "being in power whilst people gradually feel poorer" factor that has dragged the Conservatives down by a point a month since Summer 2021.
I see Goodwin is involved somehow which immediately makes it dodgy.
With every day that passes, without some kind of revival, the Tories inch nearer the cliff-edge of electoral disaster
I do not believe they can revive now (outside some huge black swan). The choice is between a really bad result (approaching 1997) or something apocalyptic, as happened to the Canadian Tories in 1993
Labour 502
Tories 53
SNP 48
LD 24.
Amusingly LD benefitting heavily (relatively) from FPTP. Greens get 1 Reform 0.
Else they might be struggling to get over the 500 seat line.
Amusingly, they are employed by GB News.
Outside of a black swan, the only other thing I can see is Sunak being dumped for the return of Boris. I actually think that would like work against the Tories though.
The best PM numbers are also much better for Sunak and unless RefUK overtakes them there is zero chance of a Canada 1993 style result for the Tories
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/voters-want-to-hurt-the-tories-at-the-next-election/
There is no reason to vote for them, unless you are a shrivelled pensioner in a big house in Surrey. They stand for nothing, they are worth no loyalty, they inspire no following, they are as incapable of fighting Wokeness as they are of stopping the dinghies
They need to be hurled into painful oblivion, and that is exactly what British voters are preparing to do
Then, Farage, sensing an inevitable Tory defeat, getting involved and seriously putting the boot into them.
Not impossible. But we are a long way from there.
Lab 528, SNP 48, LD 28, Con 23, PC 3 Green 1, Ref 0, Other 1, NI 18
Does anyone know the changes with the last poll?
However I think some of them will come back under Sunak anyway
Fucksake I absolutely loathe Woke Labour, but I loathe the pointless stupid Tories almost as much. And I will take some real pleasure when they get their overdue come-uppance
That, for instance, was not the case in 1997. I accepted then that the Tories were tired and clapped out and it was time for a change, but I did not relish a Tory collapse
This time, I do, in a macabre way. And I am on the right. So I can easily imagine what others think. "Burning contempt"?
But if Johnson came back I think even he would abstain.
Mind you, there's still time :-)
Pele
Vivienne Westwood
The Conservative and Unionist Party
Lab +1
Green +3
LD Ref. NC.
Last People Polling poll.
So Labour down 1, Conservatives down 3, Greens up 3. Amusing noise, but probably noise.
The other was Vivienne Westwood.
Australia gave us their swans,
Anyway, welcome fellow traveller
https://twitter.com/durdenlebowski/status/1608571485916102656/video/1
Apparently his inability to hold himself back from responding after Greta dunked him into the center of the earth is part of how Romanian authorities found him. Go figure https://twitter.com/esqueer_/status/1608580052220014592
Used to be the biggest lake in England.
Though if the Privileges report goes against him and he becomes unavailable, who gets the Hail Mary pass? Or do Conservative MPs accept they are on the lemming march over the cliff?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1945_United_Kingdom_general_election
There's even evidence of swingback!
According to UKCA, the suspected cammer arrested in July completed one of these forms with his details and signed it.
https://torrentfreak.com/pirate-movie-cammers-plagued-uk-cinemas-after-covid-shut-them-down-221229/
source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/12/29/economy-2023-outlook-inflation-prices/
And their conclusion is . . . (drum roll) . . . that we don't know:
"The 2022 economy was a jumble of flip-flopping growth, decades-high inflation and fears that a steep slowdown could plunge the country into recession. (It didn’t.)
But big questions remain, and economists say we’re in for an even more fraught guessing game in 2023."
One of the positive things for the US economy is that, as of October, there were still more than 10 million job openings.
Not being an economist paid to make forecasts, I won't venture an opinion -- and economists who are have my sympathy.
(Full discloure: As a retiree I am probably personally better off when the economy is in a mild recession -- especially considering the almost 9 percent increase we social security recipients will be getting in January. But I still prefer growth enough so that job seekers are able to find jobs, easily. Especially the young people just entering the work force.)
I don't know enough details about your elections since WW II to be certain, but on general principles, I would expect a more prosperous UK to be good for the incumbent party.
(Which is why I just wrote the previous post.)
In the unlikely event Sunak was removed it would be just before the 2024 general election campaign and almost certainly only in favour of Boris by coronation
Thought the last bit was a rather strange criticism, given it is about ranchers in Montana...nobody makes similar complaints about Empire.
Not liked.
No spoilers please. Heading into the last episode...
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2004/oct/10/history.academicexperts
That a poll has to put the Tories on under 20% to be an outlier is a pretty good sign of how bad their underlying position is.
Certainly I would say that economic credibility is important for an incumbent government (and an opposition), but confidence that things are improving seems to play well for a Labour opposition. If things are really bad there seems to be a school of thought that Labour could make things worse.
The Truss Event seems to have irreparably destroyed Tory economic credibility for the foreseeable future. They will receive no credit for an economic turnaround. They are done.
Where Scotland leads, England follows.
The third died 23 June 2016.
Honestly I’m surprised they are as high as they are. The country is in a mess, the past 12 months have been abysmal and Sunak doesn’t have what it takes.
And we have often discussed “the others” from this company’s polling before. Part of me asks why is it wrong? Yes it probably is but Can we compare with actual GE results data for others - independents, very minor party’s, looney’s, literal democrats ballot wreckers etc, all added up?
Maybe we should be more sceptical of polls being wrong that has Labour or Tory’s in 50s when at GE neither will get 44% perhaps never even close to that - on basis of difference between 54 and 44 is 10% others come Election Day some poll firms add to the big two, People Polling take other at face value?
The analysis that the clear uptake in Tory polling has not just lost momentum but stepped back is okay in my opinion. Why is a mixture of assessing Sunak and finding him wanting - a vote loser in different ways than Truss and Boris, he is adjudged to be inexperienced and not in control, also government arguments on strikes don’t wash with the voters, these two reasons are why the Tories will slip backwards in likely all polls over the coming weeks.
Why would you vote for Sunak who has overseen failure for 12 years? His act doesn't work in Government.
The question for 2023 is: can Starmer seal the deal?
A successful 2023 would see Starmer enthroned as the Prime Minister in waiting, his victory seen as inevitable, and a decisive shift in media coverage in his favour as a result.
If Starmer has a bad 2023 then it's possible you might see voters casting around for other politicians to support to take down the Tories.