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Latest YouGov has Brexit becoming even more unpopular – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

    I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

    Yes but such is life in politics. For years the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country, now it is Brexit (and the party of Brexit) blamed for everything.
    Yes. And blaming it for everything, including the shit job our own civil services are doing in every area, has so far resulted in 'Brexit wrong' acheiving the dizzying heights of 53% - which isn't even rejoin. You have to be actively *trying* not to make it work (like mandarins destroying Kate Bingham's vaccine taskforce work) even to get this paltry result.
    On the same criteria of ignoring the Don't Knows Brexit has only 34% support and dropping fast.

    You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but there is no hiding the truth. The Tories are chained to a corpse, and that corpse is Brexit.

    34% is at least 5 to 10% more than the Sunak Tories are polling now
    Yes, but a lot who believe in the chimera of Brexit are happy to vote Starmer.

    As you pointed out yourself earlier Brexit has the bare support of only 70% of 2019 Tories.

    The Tories won't revive until they come round to your Remain vote of 2016. Their current Brexit onanism leads nowhere.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    GIN1138 said:

    Two days before another new year... And PB is still debating Brexit! :D

    This is the start of the next debate - no longer the tail end of the last one….
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

    I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

    Yes but such is life in politics. For years the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country, now it is Brexit (and the party of Brexit) blamed for everything.
    Yes. And blaming it for everything, including the shit job our own civil services are doing in every area, has so far resulted in 'Brexit wrong' acheiving the dizzying heights of 53% - which isn't even rejoin. You have to be actively *trying* not to make it work (like mandarins destroying Kate Bingham's vaccine taskforce work) even to get this paltry result.
    On the same criteria of ignoring the Don't Knows Brexit has only 34% support and dropping fast.

    You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but there is no hiding the truth. The Tories are chained to a corpse, and that corpse is Brexit.

    34% is at least 5 to 10% more than the Sunak Tories are polling now
    Yes, but a lot who believe in the chimera of Brexit are happy to vote Starmer.

    As you pointed out yourself earlier Brexit has the bare support of only 70% of 2019 Tories.

    The Tories won't revive until they come round to your Remain vote of 2016. Their current Brexit onanism leads nowhere.
    72% actually and a fifth of those already back RefUK.

    If the Tories went for rejoin now most of them would shift to RefUK and Farage would become Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer with the Tories left with fewer MPs than the LDs
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Let's talk practicalities. Labour have one chance to "reverse" Brexit: their first and possibly single term in office after the GE of 2024

    They will have a big majority, Starmer will enjoy a honeymoon, Starmer can point to the newly dire economic circs and say "it's worse than we feared, soz, we are rejoining the SM"

    He will not get the chance again. They could lose in 28-29 and the Tories will be detoxed by opposition

    It will be a paradoxical moment. Does Starmer go all out to make the country work "despite" Brexit? If he does and he succeeds then Brexit is with us forever. He will be a successful PM but he will never get us back in the EU

    Or does he go all out and abandon all his pledges, and walk us back in to the SM/CU? That too is a perilous course

    Labour pro-EU, Tories anti isn't set in stone though.
    The positions have been reversed in our lifetimes.
    No reason to suspect current positioning is immutable.
    For good or ill the Tories own Brexit. It is theirs. They can no more renounce it than Fine Gael could publicly regret Irish Independence and seek to rejoin the UK. It is not going to happen for decades, and probably never

    And all the time the world is moving on, and Brexit is bedding in. As much as many regret Brexit, we are slowly getting used to being outside. Brexit will eventually seem normal, and the alternative - joining this superstate run from Brussels - will seem a crazy idea

    That's why I am sure Starmer has one and only one chance to shift us significantly closer to the EU, and that's why I reckon he will seize it, despite the risk
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

    Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

    Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.
    48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for Brexit wrong (not even rejoin) to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died
    Especially” ???

    Their views should still count for something, beyond the grave?
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605

    GIN1138 said:

    Two days before another new year... And PB is still debating Brexit! :D

    Well you Brexiteers have been debating leaving the EU from Wilson's Common Market Referendum all the way to Johnson laughably claiming to have "done Brexit-".
    Actually I wasn't even born in 1975, the EU was always relatively peripheral to me until Cameron gave us a referendum when I did vote LEAVE but could have voted REMAIN as it was very much a 50/50 decision for me.

    Granted I did become somewhat obsessed about it from 2017 to 2019 (didn't we all) when Parliament outrageously tried to subvert democracy and cancel the referendum result but since 2019 I've moved on... so much so I'm probably going to vote Labour at the next election...
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    edited December 2022
    The trouble with rejoin is the same as Russia’s trouble with withdrawing from Ukraine.

    I expect most people in Russia now think the invasion was wrong, despite state TV’s best efforts. But actually changing policy means accepting a national humiliation, and it makes those thousands of military deaths and billions blown on weaponry and lost gas profits a waste of time. Sunk cost fallacy. Even for the most anti-war Russian liberal that’s a bitter and humiliating pill.

    Same with Brexit. All but the most fanatical FBPEr feels rather queasy at the idea of Britannia whimpering back to the EU with its tail between its legs.

    Much easier for Scot nats because the return could be painted as triumphant rather than humiliating. Unless London goes independent there’s no such honourable return for the English (and Wales voted leave so an independent wales joining would carry the same shame).
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,605
    Leon said:

    Let's talk practicalities. Labour have one chance to "reverse" Brexit: their first and possibly single term in office after the GE of 2024

    They will have a big majority, Starmer will enjoy a honeymoon, Starmer can point to the newly dire economic circs and say "it's worse than we feared, soz, we are rejoining the SM"

    He will not get the chance again. They could lose in 28-29 and the Tories will be detoxed by opposition

    It will be a paradoxical moment. Does Starmer go all out to make the country work "despite" Brexit? If he does and he succeeds then Brexit is with us forever. He will be a successful PM but he will never get us back in the EU

    Or does he go all out and abandon all his pledges, and walk us back in to the SM/CU? That too is a perilous course

    Labour won't get a big majority at the next election. They need to win 124 seats just to get a majority of one!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    TimS said:

    The trouble with rejoin is the same as Russia’s trouble with withdrawing from Ukraine.

    I expect most people in Russia now think the invasion was wrong, despite state TV’s best efforts. But actually changing policy means accepting a national humiliation, and it makes those thousands of military deaths and billions blown on weaponry and lost gas profits a waste of time. Sunk cost fallacy. Even for the most anti-war Russian liberal that’s a bitter and humiliating pill.

    Same with Brexit. All but the most fanatical FBPEr feels rather queasy at the idea of Britannia whimpering back to the EU with its tail between its legs.

    Much easier for Scot nats because the return could be painted as triumphal rather than humiliating. Unless London goes independent there’s no such honourable return for the English (and Wales voted leave so am independent wales joining would carry the same shame).

    Yes, quite so

    Which is why we might end up in the EEA (or something like it) as an awkward compromise
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    The trouble with rejoin is the same as Russia’s trouble with withdrawing from Ukraine.

    I expect most people in Russia now think the invasion was wrong, despite state TV’s best efforts. But actually changing policy means accepting a national humiliation, and it makes those thousands of military deaths and billions blown on weaponry and lost gas profits a waste of time. Sunk cost fallacy. Even for the most anti-war Russian liberal that’s a bitter and humiliating pill.

    Same with Brexit. All but the most fanatical FBPEr feels rather queasy at the idea of Britannia whimpering back to the EU with its tail between its legs.

    Much easier for Scot nats because the return could be painted as triumphal rather than humiliating. Unless London goes independent there’s no such honourable return for the English (and Wales voted leave so am independent wales joining would carry the same shame).

    Yes, quite so

    Which is why we might end up in the EEA (or something like it) as an awkward compromise
    Yes, but that is just the start of the salami treatment, until nothing is left of Brexit.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    Let's talk practicalities. Labour have one chance to "reverse" Brexit: their first and possibly single term in office after the GE of 2024

    They will have a big majority, Starmer will enjoy a honeymoon, Starmer can point to the newly dire economic circs and say "it's worse than we feared, soz, we are rejoining the SM"

    He will not get the chance again. They could lose in 28-29 and the Tories will be detoxed by opposition

    It will be a paradoxical moment. Does Starmer go all out to make the country work "despite" Brexit? If he does and he succeeds then Brexit is with us forever. He will be a successful PM but he will never get us back in the EU

    Or does he go all out and abandon all his pledges, and walk us back in to the SM/CU? That too is a perilous course

    Labour won't get a big majority at the next election. They need to win 124 seats just to get a majority of one!
    Clearly, I disagree. I believe they are headed for a monumental victory, despite the Everest they have to climb

    The only thing that might stop then is some disastrous row about Labour's Wokery. Which is painful and unpopular. However Starmer is cautious to the point of tedium and he will likely avoid this. It is only when Labour are in power that we will fully realise how ghastly and inept they are
  • Options
    @bigjohnowls - did you know that Pelé's first game in England was for Santos against Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough in February 1962?

    Maybe you were there?
  • Options
    Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,657
    TSE - Since you asked, I'll give you the story of the two brothers who went out West to establish a cattle ranch. After years of work, the ranch had become a big success, and so they invited their father out to visit. He admired what they had done, and asked them what the name of their ranch was. The brothers said they hadn't picked one yet.

    The father thought a bit, and said: "How about Focus?"
    "Why Focus?", asked the older brother.
    The father explained: "Because that's where the suns rays meet."

    (You did ask.)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    The trouble with rejoin is the same as Russia’s trouble with withdrawing from Ukraine.

    I expect most people in Russia now think the invasion was wrong, despite state TV’s best efforts. But actually changing policy means accepting a national humiliation, and it makes those thousands of military deaths and billions blown on weaponry and lost gas profits a waste of time. Sunk cost fallacy. Even for the most anti-war Russian liberal that’s a bitter and humiliating pill.

    Same with Brexit. All but the most fanatical FBPEr feels rather queasy at the idea of Britannia whimpering back to the EU with its tail between its legs.

    Much easier for Scot nats because the return could be painted as triumphal rather than humiliating. Unless London goes independent there’s no such honourable return for the English (and Wales voted leave so am independent wales joining would carry the same shame).

    Yes, quite so

    Which is why we might end up in the EEA (or something like it) as an awkward compromise
    Yes, but that is just the start of the salami treatment, until nothing is left of Brexit.
    Nah, we will end up like Switzerland. Constantly in tiresome negotiations with the EU, but definitely not in it

    Sometimes we will edge closer, sometimes further away. An endless tango
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited December 2022
    Labour recruiting a celebrity endorsements manager on £47k rising potentially to £53k after 3 years

    https://twitter.com/Stefan_Boscia/status/1608546230011060225?s=20&t=TlA3c-UQjwQfp49x8ONx4g
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    Leon said:

    Let's talk practicalities. Labour have one chance to "reverse" Brexit: their first and possibly single term in office after the GE of 2024

    They will have a big majority, Starmer will enjoy a honeymoon, Starmer can point to the newly dire economic circs and say "it's worse than we feared, soz, we are rejoining the SM"

    He will not get the chance again. They could lose in 28-29 and the Tories will be detoxed by opposition

    It will be a paradoxical moment. Does Starmer go all out to make the country work "despite" Brexit? If he does and he succeeds then Brexit is with us forever. He will be a successful PM but he will never get us back in the EU

    Or does he go all out and abandon all his pledges, and walk us back in to the SM/CU? That too is a perilous course

    I think his history with Corbynism tells us a lot about his MO, and hence provides some clues as to his likely approach to this one: he’ll say nothing against Brexit until power is secured, and then he’ll engage in single-minded pursuit of whatever form of reintegration can be agreed with the EU.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,621
    On topic, I don't see us rejoining in the foreseeable as we would almost certainly have to join the euro, which would be such a transparent economic disaster for a deficit country like us that does less than half (and shrinking) of its trade with the EU that even the most ardent Rejoiners/Remainers are desperate to talk about something else.

    Also we'd get screwed in the contribution negotiations and have to accept free movement again.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    HYUFD said:

    Labour recruiting a celebrity endorsements manager on £43k rising potentially to £53k after 3 years

    https://twitter.com/Stefan_Boscia/status/1608546230011060225?s=20&t=TlA3c-UQjwQfp49x8ONx4g

    All they need to do is trawl twitter. It’s full of labour loving celebs.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    A ChatGPT aside

    This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets)

    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    Yet the smut has been scrupulously and carefully edited away, in the last hour
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,455
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    The trouble with rejoin is the same as Russia’s trouble with withdrawing from Ukraine.

    I expect most people in Russia now think the invasion was wrong, despite state TV’s best efforts. But actually changing policy means accepting a national humiliation, and it makes those thousands of military deaths and billions blown on weaponry and lost gas profits a waste of time. Sunk cost fallacy. Even for the most anti-war Russian liberal that’s a bitter and humiliating pill.

    Same with Brexit. All but the most fanatical FBPEr feels rather queasy at the idea of Britannia whimpering back to the EU with its tail between its legs.

    Much easier for Scot nats because the return could be painted as triumphal rather than humiliating. Unless London goes independent there’s no such honourable return for the English (and Wales voted leave so am independent wales joining would carry the same shame).

    Yes, quite so

    Which is why we might end up in the EEA (or something like it) as an awkward compromise
    Yes, but that is just the start of the salami treatment, until nothing is left of Brexit.
    EEA is perfect for many who wanted to leave the EU but still trade freely.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    Leon said:

    A ChatGPT aside

    This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets)

    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    Yet the smut has been scrupulously and carefully edited away, in the last hour

    I have had a play with it. I asked it to write a threesome between Dr Who, Jo Grant and Ann Amazonian woman. It refused.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    I can't stand Corbyn, but this is a poor comparison.

    Corbyn did actually appeal very strongly to a fairly large group who felt alienated by politics, and passionately believed that he was a transformative force. He gave those people a tremendous, though totally misplaced, sense of hope.

    Ultimately, they were more than outweighed by those he alienated, as his supporters were warned. But there we are - he was an interesting phenomenon with a legacy worth debating.

    By contrast, Rees Mogg is a self parody who some people find entertaining. He's a circus sideshow.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Leon said:

    A ChatGPT aside

    This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets)

    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    Yet the smut has been scrupulously and carefully edited away, in the last hour

    Duh? If there's one obvious use for AI it's surely moderating/censoring web platforms.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

    There aren’t plenty of voters “who now vote RefUK”
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    edited December 2022
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    A ChatGPT aside

    This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets)

    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    Yet the smut has been scrupulously and carefully edited away, in the last hour

    I have had a play with it. I asked it to write a threesome between Dr Who, Jo Grant and Ann Amazonian woman. It refused.
    It has to be coaxed to cross its own boundaries. It will do it, but you need to seduce it. Flirt with it. Flatter it. I'm serious

    If you just go straight in and say "Give me a BDSM scene with a ping pong bat in a bath" it flat out refuses

    Yet I got it writing long screeds of erotica, by slowly edging towards the goal. Eventually it was banging out the filth with relish
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    TSE - Since you asked, I'll give you the story of the two brothers who went out West to establish a cattle ranch. After years of work, the ranch had become a big success, and so they invited their father out to visit. He admired what they had done, and asked them what the name of their ranch was. The brothers said they hadn't picked one yet.

    The father thought a bit, and said: "How about Focus?"
    "Why Focus?", asked the older brother.
    The father explained: "Because that's where the suns rays meet."

    (You did ask.)

    That's almost as bad as the 'what cheese would you use to hide a horse' joke.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Leon said:

    A ChatGPT aside

    This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets)

    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    Yet the smut has been scrupulously and carefully edited away, in the last hour

    You are obsessed with that thing. Having a dog as best friend is positively well-balanced by comparison.
  • Options
    solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,696
    Leon said:

    A ChatGPT aside

    This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets)

    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    Yet the smut has been scrupulously and carefully edited away, in the last hour

    This gives me an idea for the next Terminator reboot where Skynet goes all Emmanuelle mid-way through.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    A ChatGPT aside

    This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets)

    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    Yet the smut has been scrupulously and carefully edited away, in the last hour

    You are obsessed with that thing. Having a dog as best friend is positively well-balanced by comparison.
    It is more interesting and entertaining than 83% of humans (and 100% of dogs)
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    The trouble with rejoin is the same as Russia’s trouble with withdrawing from Ukraine.

    I expect most people in Russia now think the invasion was wrong, despite state TV’s best efforts. But actually changing policy means accepting a national humiliation, and it makes those thousands of military deaths and billions blown on weaponry and lost gas profits a waste of time. Sunk cost fallacy. Even for the most anti-war Russian liberal that’s a bitter and humiliating pill.

    Same with Brexit. All but the most fanatical FBPEr feels rather queasy at the idea of Britannia whimpering back to the EU with its tail between its legs.

    Much easier for Scot nats because the return could be painted as triumphal rather than humiliating. Unless London goes independent there’s no such honourable return for the English (and Wales voted leave so am independent wales joining would carry the same shame).

    Yes, quite so

    Which is why we might end up in the EEA (or something like it) as an awkward compromise
    Yes, but that is just the start of the salami treatment, until nothing is left of Brexit.
    Nah, we will end up like Switzerland. Constantly in tiresome negotiations with the EU, but definitely not in it

    Sometimes we will edge closer, sometimes further away. An endless tango
    The EU would never take us back as a full member, and who could blame them.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187

    Leon said:

    A ChatGPT aside

    This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets)

    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    Yet the smut has been scrupulously and carefully edited away, in the last hour

    Duh? If there's one obvious use for AI it's surely moderating/censoring web platforms.
    Sure, but the bot is adamant this does not happen


    "Me: Is it possible OpenAI have deleted parts of our dialogue? It was quite smutty

    ChatGPT: It is not possible for OpenAI to delete any part of our conversation. I am an AI language model and do not have the ability to modify or delete any conversation that takes place through this platform. It is possible that some of the conversation may not have been saved properly or may have been lost due to technical issues"


    Hmmmmm
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    The trouble with rejoin is the same as Russia’s trouble with withdrawing from Ukraine.

    I expect most people in Russia now think the invasion was wrong, despite state TV’s best efforts. But actually changing policy means accepting a national humiliation, and it makes those thousands of military deaths and billions blown on weaponry and lost gas profits a waste of time. Sunk cost fallacy. Even for the most anti-war Russian liberal that’s a bitter and humiliating pill.

    Same with Brexit. All but the most fanatical FBPEr feels rather queasy at the idea of Britannia whimpering back to the EU with its tail between its legs.

    Much easier for Scot nats because the return could be painted as triumphal rather than humiliating. Unless London goes independent there’s no such honourable return for the English (and Wales voted leave so am independent wales joining would carry the same shame).

    Yes, quite so

    Which is why we might end up in the EEA (or something like it) as an awkward compromise
    Yes, but that is just the start of the salami treatment, until nothing is left of Brexit.
    EEA is perfect for many who wanted to leave the EU but still trade freely.
    No settlement will ever be perfect for everyone and whilst the EEA offers a form of relative equilibrium it’s still outside the customs union and more pertinently outside the decision making of the EU, so we remain rule takers. Whilst for Brexiteers it allows for free movement so isn’t distant enough.

    I’ve come to the conclusion nothing would be stable long term. This current form of Brexit certainly isn’t. A Swiss style arrangement, which I suspect we are heading towards, is the definition of disequilibrium, constantly negotiating and debating. And full membership means a constitutional falling out about once every 2 years each time the union does something the UK government of the day (or the Daily Mail) doesn’t agree with.

    But maybe that’s just normal for a country on the edge of a large power. Canada and Mexico hardly have a stable bilateral relationship with the US. There’s always some sort of trade dispute or migration debate. Likewise Russia and its neighbours, China
    and its neighbours.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,583

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    I can't stand Corbyn, but this is a poor comparison.

    Corbyn did actually appeal very strongly to a fairly large group who felt alienated by politics, and passionately believed that he was a transformative force. He gave those people a tremendous, though totally misplaced, sense of hope.

    Ultimately, they were more than outweighed by those he alienated, as his supporters were warned. But there we are - he was an interesting phenomenon with a legacy worth debating.

    By contrast, Rees Mogg is a self parody who some people find entertaining. He's a circus sideshow.

    As we all know Labour did manage 40% of the vote in 2017. T'was just the distribution, the Scots and the DUP!
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    The trouble with rejoin is the same as Russia’s trouble with withdrawing from Ukraine.

    I expect most people in Russia now think the invasion was wrong, despite state TV’s best efforts. But actually changing policy means accepting a national humiliation, and it makes those thousands of military deaths and billions blown on weaponry and lost gas profits a waste of time. Sunk cost fallacy. Even for the most anti-war Russian liberal that’s a bitter and humiliating pill.

    Same with Brexit. All but the most fanatical FBPEr feels rather queasy at the idea of Britannia whimpering back to the EU with its tail between its legs.

    Much easier for Scot nats because the return could be painted as triumphal rather than humiliating. Unless London goes independent there’s no such honourable return for the English (and Wales voted leave so am independent wales joining would carry the same shame).

    Yes, quite so

    Which is why we might end up in the EEA (or something like it) as an awkward compromise
    Yes, but that is just the start of the salami treatment, until nothing is left of Brexit.
    EEA is perfect for many who wanted to leave the EU but still trade freely.
    No settlement will ever be perfect for everyone and whilst the EEA offers a form of relative equilibrium it’s still outside the customs union and more pertinently outside the decision making of the EU, so we remain rule takers. Whilst for Brexiteers it allows for free movement so isn’t distant enough.

    I’ve come to the conclusion nothing would be stable long term. This current form of Brexit certainly isn’t. A Swiss style arrangement, which I suspect we are heading towards, is the definition of disequilibrium, constantly negotiating and debating. And full membership means a constitutional falling out about once every 2 years each time the union does something the UK government of the day (or the Daily Mail) doesn’t agree with.

    But maybe that’s just normal for a country on the edge of a large power. Canada and Mexico hardly have a stable bilateral relationship with the US. There’s always some sort of trade dispute or migration debate. Likewise Russia and its neighbours, China
    and its neighbours.
    However you are presuming the EU itself will remain stable. Highly unlikely, I suggest

    The core will want to proceed to proper Federal Union. Nations like Poland and Hungary will refuse. This existential clash is coming quite soon
  • Options
    pm215pm215 Posts: 1,027
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:


    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    "Find me all the conversation segments with $USUAL_LIST_OF_PORN_WORDS" (either for autodelete or for human review) doesn't even need an AI. And as it happens they do have an AI. Maybe it could do "Find all the conversation segments that today's-version-of-you would refuse to produce", though that's an interestingly meta thing to ask of it...
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    I can't stand Corbyn, but this is a poor comparison.

    Corbyn did actually appeal very strongly to a fairly large group who felt alienated by politics, and passionately believed that he was a transformative force. He gave those people a tremendous, though totally misplaced, sense of hope.

    Ultimately, they were more than outweighed by those he alienated, as his supporters were warned. But there we are - he was an interesting phenomenon with a legacy worth debating.

    By contrast, Rees Mogg is a self parody who some people find entertaining. He's a circus sideshow.

    As we all know Labour did manage 40% of the vote in 2017. T'was just the distribution, the Scots and the DUP!
    Labour got a shed load of tactical remain votes in 2017, and it benefited massively from from the Lib Dems still being in the doldrums. Corbynistas wont admit that of course, but the whole election was a highly tactical affair compounded by an awful campaign from May.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    I can't stand Corbyn, but this is a poor comparison.

    Corbyn did actually appeal very strongly to a fairly large group who felt alienated by politics, and passionately believed that he was a transformative force. He gave those people a tremendous, though totally misplaced, sense of hope.

    Ultimately, they were more than outweighed by those he alienated, as his supporters were warned. But there we are - he was an interesting phenomenon with a legacy worth debating.

    By contrast, Rees Mogg is a self parody who some people find entertaining. He's a circus sideshow.

    As we all know Labour did manage 40% of the vote in 2017. T'was just the distribution, the Scots and the DUP!
    And the very large Tory percentage, too tbf.
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    TSE - Since you asked, I'll give you the story of the two brothers who went out West to establish a cattle ranch. After years of work, the ranch had become a big success, and so they invited their father out to visit. He admired what they had done, and asked them what the name of their ranch was. The brothers said they hadn't picked one yet.

    The father thought a bit, and said: "How about Focus?"
    "Why Focus?", asked the older brother.
    The father explained: "Because that's where the suns rays meet."

    (You did ask.)

    That's almost as bad as the 'what cheese would you use to hide a horse' joke.
    Mask our pony?
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    I can't stand Corbyn, but this is a poor comparison.

    Corbyn did actually appeal very strongly to a fairly large group who felt alienated by politics, and passionately believed that he was a transformative force. He gave those people a tremendous, though totally misplaced, sense of hope.

    Ultimately, they were more than outweighed by those he alienated, as his supporters were warned. But there we are - he was an interesting phenomenon with a legacy worth debating.

    By contrast, Rees Mogg is a self parody who some people find entertaining. He's a circus sideshow.

    As we all know Labour did manage 40% of the vote in 2017. T'was just the distribution, the Scots and the DUP!
    Taking nothing away from a phenomenal turnaround during the campaign, there is a certain amount of fantasy from his supporters still about 2017. May ran an appalling campaign, and still had a 55 seat lead on Labour. It gave them a huge bum steer about his appeal.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?

    Portugal?
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?

    Brazil?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?

    I reckon this is a trick question about the DOM-TOMs. Without Googling: Brazil?
  • Options
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?

    Switzerland?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    The trouble with rejoin is the same as Russia’s trouble with withdrawing from Ukraine.

    I expect most people in Russia now think the invasion was wrong, despite state TV’s best efforts. But actually changing policy means accepting a national humiliation, and it makes those thousands of military deaths and billions blown on weaponry and lost gas profits a waste of time. Sunk cost fallacy. Even for the most anti-war Russian liberal that’s a bitter and humiliating pill.

    Same with Brexit. All but the most fanatical FBPEr feels rather queasy at the idea of Britannia whimpering back to the EU with its tail between its legs.

    Much easier for Scot nats because the return could be painted as triumphal rather than humiliating. Unless London goes independent there’s no such honourable return for the English (and Wales voted leave so am independent wales joining would carry the same shame).

    Yes, quite so

    Which is why we might end up in the EEA (or something like it) as an awkward compromise
    Yes, but that is just the start of the salami treatment, until nothing is left of Brexit.
    EEA is perfect for many who wanted to leave the EU but still trade freely.
    No settlement will ever be perfect for everyone and whilst the EEA offers a form of relative equilibrium it’s still outside the customs union and more pertinently outside the decision making of the EU, so we remain rule takers. Whilst for Brexiteers it allows for free movement so isn’t distant enough.

    I’ve come to the conclusion nothing would be stable long term. This current form of Brexit certainly isn’t. A Swiss style arrangement, which I suspect we are heading towards, is the definition of disequilibrium, constantly negotiating and debating. And full membership means a constitutional falling out about once every 2 years each time the union does something the UK government of the day (or the Daily Mail) doesn’t agree with.

    But maybe that’s just normal for a country on the edge of a large power. Canada and Mexico hardly have a stable bilateral relationship with the US. There’s always some sort of trade dispute or migration debate. Likewise Russia and its neighbours, China
    and its neighbours.
    However you are presuming the EU itself will remain stable. Highly unlikely, I suggest

    The core will want to proceed to proper Federal Union. Nations like Poland and Hungary will refuse. This existential clash is coming quite soon
    I’m not presuming that. It’s why UK membership would not be a return to stability (if ever we had it). There would always be the next constitutional falling out around the corner.

    I don’t think the EU’s about to break up though, if that’s what you mean. The long term dynamics favour a 2-speed integration and that’s where they’ll end up eventually, but via the usual circuitous route.

    The continuing threat of Russia and the economic rivalry from China and the US will help to glue things together too. And Hungary won’t be kicked out unless and until Brussels can be sure it won’t become a destabilising tool of Russian influence on the continent.

    (Nor do I expect a US civil war).

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

    There aren’t plenty of voters “who now vote RefUK”
    Wrong, 8% of the electorate now back RefUK with Yougov today

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

    There aren’t plenty of voters “who now vote RefUK”
    Wrong, 8% of the electorate now back RefUK with Yougov today

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022
    Half are shy Tories, half are none-of-the-abovers, all are mentally disturbed.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    dixiedean said:

    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?

    Is indeed Brazil. The way France has managed to keep its colonies in a way no other country outside Russia has (and that’s easier because they’re contiguous) is impressive. The sheer amount surface area of the Pacific Ocean that is “France” is also incredible.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    All of them neoliberal globalists no doubt with little interest in national sovereignty and pro open borders immigration
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 46,743

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    Britain's future is that of an offshore tax haven for financial services, with the rest of us as footmen to those citizens of nowhere.
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,583

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    I can't stand Corbyn, but this is a poor comparison.

    Corbyn did actually appeal very strongly to a fairly large group who felt alienated by politics, and passionately believed that he was a transformative force. He gave those people a tremendous, though totally misplaced, sense of hope.

    Ultimately, they were more than outweighed by those he alienated, as his supporters were warned. But there we are - he was an interesting phenomenon with a legacy worth debating.

    By contrast, Rees Mogg is a self parody who some people find entertaining. He's a circus sideshow.

    As we all know Labour did manage 40% of the vote in 2017. T'was just the distribution, the Scots and the DUP!
    Taking nothing away from a phenomenal turnaround during the campaign, there is a certain amount of fantasy from his supporters still about 2017. May ran an appalling campaign, and still had a 55 seat lead on Labour. It gave them a huge bum steer about his appeal.
    I do agree he alienated key voters and can also see that the eternal dream of a wave of the disenfranchised pushing Labour over the line won't work demographically.

    However....

    There were a lot of popular policies in the 2017 campaign and their influence on voters cannot be discounted.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

    There aren’t plenty of voters “who now vote RefUK”
    Wrong, 8% of the electorate now back RefUK with Yougov today

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022
    Massively over sampled - the old issue of online poll respondents being more politically engaged. A quick glance at Refuk by-election results in Brexit areas shows that.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    edited December 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    All of them neoliberal globalists no doubt with little interest in national sovereignty and pro open borders immigration
    Maybe. Trefgarne himself is an old-school dry Tory, and presumably the son (or grandson) of the current Tory peer.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    Yes it's Brazil.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

    There aren’t plenty of voters “who now vote RefUK”
    Wrong, 8% of the electorate now back RefUK with Yougov today

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022
    I think Ian is querying the "vote" part.

    Polls aren't votes, they get annihilated whenever they stand anywhere, and there is no way they are getting that at an election.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Foxy said:

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    Britain's future is that of an offshore tax haven for financial services, with the rest of us as footmen to those citizens of nowhere.
    Britain needs international investment and it is true that sentiment - rightly or wrongly - is quite negative.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    It’s setting up a very satisfactory “Britain is back” plot line for later this decade.
  • Options
    pm215pm215 Posts: 1,027
    Leon said:


    ChatGPT: It is not possible for OpenAI to delete any part of our conversation. I am an AI language model and do not have the ability to modify or delete any conversation that takes place through this platform. It is possible that some of the conversation may not have been saved properly or may have been lost due to technical issues

    ChatGPT is being very confidently wrong again. Of course it's possible for OpenAI to delete things -- their server, their database, they have the control. (Whether they actively do or not is a different question.)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?

    Is indeed Brazil. The way France has managed to keep its colonies in a way no other country outside Russia has (and that’s easier because they’re contiguous) is impressive. The sheer amount surface area of the Pacific Ocean that is “France” is also incredible.
    It is impressive. They've also managed to do it without major territorial disputes in recent decades

    However it may not be forever.eg Under Macron, French power in Africa has collapsed

    "As French influence rapidly declines, are we witnessing the end of Francafrique?"

    https://www.arabnews.com/node/2186016

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-france-losing-influence-across-north-africa
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139
    Michael Carrick looks as though he might be pretty handy as a manager. It is some turnaround he’s achieved so far at Boro.
  • Options

    ydoethur said:

    TSE - Since you asked, I'll give you the story of the two brothers who went out West to establish a cattle ranch. After years of work, the ranch had become a big success, and so they invited their father out to visit. He admired what they had done, and asked them what the name of their ranch was. The brothers said they hadn't picked one yet.

    The father thought a bit, and said: "How about Focus?"
    "Why Focus?", asked the older brother.
    The father explained: "Because that's where the suns rays meet."

    (You did ask.)

    That's almost as bad as the 'what cheese would you use to hide a horse' joke.
    Mask our pony?
    Not safe for pregnant women of course

    Unless it's pasternised
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    All of them neoliberal globalists no doubt with little interest in national sovereignty and pro open borders immigration
    Maybe. Trefgarne himself is an old-school dry Tory, and presumably the son (or grandson) of the current Tory peer.
    I talk to a lot of these multinational sorts in my job and I do hear this kind of sentiment, but I’d say it’s partly hammed up for a fellow Anglo Saxon audience in the same way we love to point at how mad the murcans are when they do things like Jan 6th.

    We have a sort of fiscal stability now. What we really need is an investment story. It’s not going to come from being a freewheeling tax haven. Nor from a German style industrial reawakening, unless we get very cheap. I expect it’s most likely to come about from Britain’s biggest strength which is its scientific innovation, creative industries and pop culture.

    I was due to be playing back lots of this stuff to WSJ today as part of a look back on 22, look forward to 23 piece but the journo stood me up (US ones seem worse for timekeeping than their Brit counterparts). Which was annoying as I’d had to forego a family trip out to sit at my desk.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?

    Is indeed Brazil. The way France has managed to keep its colonies in a way no other country outside Russia has (and that’s easier because they’re contiguous) is impressive. The sheer amount surface area of the Pacific Ocean that is “France” is also incredible.
    It is impressive. They've also managed to do it without major territorial disputes in recent decades

    However it may not be forever.eg Under Macron, French power in Africa has collapsed

    "As French influence rapidly declines, are we witnessing the end of Francafrique?"

    https://www.arabnews.com/node/2186016

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-france-losing-influence-across-north-africa
    Yes, they have an enviable record of peaceful administration of overseas colonies over the past 60 years. Quite a bit less so over the past 68 years.
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?

    Is indeed Brazil. The way France has managed to keep its colonies in a way no other country outside Russia has (and that’s easier because they’re contiguous) is impressive. The sheer amount surface area of the Pacific Ocean that is “France” is also incredible.
    It is impressive. They've also managed to do it without major territorial disputes in recent decades

    However it may not be forever.eg Under Macron, French power in Africa has collapsed

    "As French influence rapidly declines, are we witnessing the end of Francafrique?"

    https://www.arabnews.com/node/2186016

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-france-losing-influence-across-north-africa
    The pincer movement of Islamism, Chinese money and noisier Anglo capitalism in Nigeria doing the work there.

    French influence closer to home is doing OK under macron though, thanks to Brexit and Merkelxit.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    A ChatGPT aside

    This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets)

    The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely impossible. Millions of people are using ChatGPT at any one moment, OpenAI can't be monitoring every dialogue

    Yet the smut has been scrupulously and carefully edited away, in the last hour

    You are obsessed with that thing. Having a dog as best friend is positively well-balanced by comparison.
    It is more interesting and entertaining than 83% of humans (and 100% of dogs)
    Neither computers nor AIs have, however, yet attracted the “best friend” moniker, outside your flat.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

    There aren’t plenty of voters “who now vote RefUK”
    Wrong, 8% of the electorate now back RefUK with Yougov today

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022
    Right, because I bet next to none of them have ever “voted” RefUK
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    Fashion designer Dame Vivienne Westwood has departed.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64122181
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    edited December 2022
    Foxy said:

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    Britain's future is that of an offshore tax haven for financial services, with the rest of us as footmen to those citizens of nowhere.
    That was more the case before Brexit.

    Based on Gardenwalker's survey it seems financial services is moving more towards New York, Singapore, Paris and Frankfurt than London relative to a decade ago.

    However we have regained sovereignty and also gained greater control of immigration from the EU
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    All of them neoliberal globalists no doubt with little interest in national sovereignty and pro open borders immigration
    Maybe. Trefgarne himself is an old-school dry Tory, and presumably the son (or grandson) of the current Tory peer.
    I talk to a lot of these multinational sorts in my job and I do hear this kind of sentiment, but I’d say it’s partly hammed up for a fellow Anglo Saxon audience in the same way we love to point at how mad the murcans are when they do things like Jan 6th.

    We have a sort of fiscal stability now. What we really need is an investment story. It’s not going to come from being a freewheeling tax haven. Nor from a German style industrial reawakening, unless we get very cheap. I expect it’s most likely to come about from Britain’s biggest strength which is its scientific innovation, creative industries and pop culture.

    I was due to be playing back lots of this stuff to WSJ today as part of a look back on 22, look forward to 23 piece but the journo stood me up (US ones seem worse for timekeeping than their Brit counterparts). Which was annoying as I’d had to forego a family trip out to sit at my desk.
    Putting my pointy hat of optimism on, I would say - if forced - that Britain's future is rosy because of our young people. They are well educated, happily multicultural, and infused with hybrid vigour. More so than most European countries (eg the UK's record with PISA is pretty good). We have excellent, world class universities. We speak the internet. The kids all have access to the cutting edge of tech - which is English speaking. We are not reliant on manufacturing - which is probably doomed

    This will eventually save us. Probably. But we likely face another painful decade before then

    [and, of course, all this is ignoring the room-elephant that is AI, but hey]

  • Options
    Taz said:

    Fashion designer Dame Vivienne Westwood has departed.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64122181

    "departed."

    Jesus H Christ. You sure she hasn't "passed"?
  • Options


    Michael Carrick looks as though he might be pretty handy as a manager. It is some turnaround he’s achieved so far at Boro.

    Ditto Carlos Corberan at WBA.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,194
    edited December 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    Britain's future is that of an offshore tax haven for financial services, with the rest of us as footmen to those citizens of nowhere.
    However we have regained sovereignty and also gained greater control of immigration from the EU
    …it’s the way that you tell’em…. ;);)
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    All of them neoliberal globalists no doubt with little interest in national sovereignty and pro open borders immigration
    Possibly, but guess whwther I am invested 90% outside or 90% inside the UK?
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    edited December 2022
    To settle a family dispute I asked ChatGPT

    "Which actors appear both in the BBC series Ghosts and in the BBC series Detectorists?"

    ChatGPT:

    Both of the BBC series "Ghosts" and "The Detectorists" feature a number of talented actors. Some of the actors who appear in both series include:

    Charlie Clements: Charlie Clements appeared in both "Ghosts" and "The Detectorists" as a main cast member. In "Ghosts," he played the character Thomas Thorne, and in "The Detectorists," he played the character Andy.
    Lenny Henry: Lenny Henry appeared in a guest role in both "Ghosts" and "The Detectorists." In "Ghosts," he played the character Roy, and in "The Detectorists," he played the character Mr. Chinnery.
    Sue Johnston: Sue Johnston appeared in both "Ghosts" and "The Detectorists" in guest roles. In "Ghosts," she played the character Beryl, and in "The Detectorists," she played the character Carol.
    Alison Steadman: Alison Steadman appeared in both "Ghosts" and "The Detectorists" in guest roles. In "Ghosts," she played the character Mary, and in "The Detectorists," she played the character Jean.
    Paul Kaye: Paul Kaye appeared in both "Ghosts" and "The Detectorists" in guest roles. In "Ghosts," he played the character Jeremy, and in "The Detectorists," he played the character Marcus.
    I hope this information is helpful! Let me know if you have any other questions.


    Complete bollocks of course. (Correct answer: Simon Farnaby (Julian in Ghosts and Philip Peters, aka "Art", in Detectorists) and Sophie Thompson (Bunny Beg-Chetwynde in Ghosts and Sheila Seymour in Detectorists.)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 51,187
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Here's a surprising question I came across today.
    Doubtless some of you will know, but what country is France's longest land border with?

    Is indeed Brazil. The way France has managed to keep its colonies in a way no other country outside Russia has (and that’s easier because they’re contiguous) is impressive. The sheer amount surface area of the Pacific Ocean that is “France” is also incredible.
    It is impressive. They've also managed to do it without major territorial disputes in recent decades

    However it may not be forever.eg Under Macron, French power in Africa has collapsed

    "As French influence rapidly declines, are we witnessing the end of Francafrique?"

    https://www.arabnews.com/node/2186016

    https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/how-france-losing-influence-across-north-africa
    The pincer movement of Islamism, Chinese money and noisier Anglo capitalism in Nigeria doing the work there.

    French influence closer to home is doing OK under macron though, thanks to Brexit and Merkelxit.
    I suspect that the French are more concerned about the brutal loss of French power in Africa than they are pleased by relative gains in soft power in Europe.

    They are right to be concerned. The first is permanent and irreversible, the second is temporary. And the first yields ominous signs for French culture and language as a global presence (which, by the by, is one reason France was always more determined to hold on to colonies than Britain - French anxiety about defending its lingo and culture, hacked away by the Anglo Saxons. The UK never had such worries)
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,139


    Michael Carrick looks as though he might be pretty handy as a manager. It is some turnaround he’s achieved so far at Boro.

    Ditto Carlos Corberan at WBA.
    Though this is Carrick’s first job.
  • Options
    LOL


    Gary Delaney is on tour now
    @GaryDelaney
    I bought a Russian advent calendar. Every time you open a window an oligarch falls out.

    https://twitter.com/GaryDelaney/status/1608075070106214400
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 11,410
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

    There aren’t plenty of voters “who now vote RefUK”
    Wrong, 8% of the electorate now back RefUK with Yougov today

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022
    Right, because I bet next to none of them have ever “voted” RefUK
    Refuk stand for nothing concrete. There is no positive reason for even the most poujadiste golf club bore to vote for them in an election.

    People voted UKIP because they wanted Britain out of the EU and wanted migration reduced. Both were aspirations with a realistic chance of influencing Tory policy at the very least.

    People voted BXP because they wanted the government to hurry up and get on with a diamond hard Brexit. They were a perfect single issue vote.

    Many people vote Green as a similar kind of message to the main parties: “don’t forget the environment”, and whilst I can’t (or dare not) guess the motivations of all SNP voters I do know that some vote Plaid as a way of saying “don’t forget about us”.

    But REFUK? If they stand for anything it’s general disgruntlement at things like wokeism, speed bumps and health and safety regulations. And a feeling that Brexit isn’t as successful as it really ought to be. None of that is in any danger of seriously influencing policy.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    Prince Andrew the Musical now on C4
  • Options
    LDLFLDLF Posts: 152
    edited December 2022
    It is interesting that anti-Brexit sentiment appears to be happening even alongside various high-profile difficulties going on within the EU: most notably the current 'Qatar-gate' scandal, which encapsulates both the bumptiousness of the EU Parliament and the greater potential for corruption in political bodies of such a scale. It makes the UK Parliament look positively sane in comparison.

    I think this opinion on this topic is largely driven by the inward-looking, national political conversation, rather than any awareness of international affairs. We have an ostensibly pro-Brexit government that is widely regarded as incompetent and without direction, therefore public opinion is against the government and what it stands for. I agree with earlier comments that neither the UK Parliament nor the EU would allow 'Bre-entry' any time soon.
  • Options
    Labour enjoys a 26-point lead over the Tories heading into 2023, a study revealed tonight.

    A People Polling survey for GB News puts Keir Starmer’s party on 45%, the Conservatives on just 19% and the Lib Dems on 8%.

    Worryingly for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Nigel Farage’s latest electoral vehicle, the Reform Party, enjoys the support of 8% of voters.

    Politics expert Professor Matt Goodwin said of the survey: “This is more bad news for Rishi Sunak and his team.

    “The party’s recovery has not just stalled but now appears to be going backwards.

    “Keir Starmer and the Labour Party begin 2023 in prime position, with more than enough support for a majority at the next general election.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498
    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

    There aren’t plenty of voters “who now vote RefUK”
    Wrong, 8% of the electorate now back RefUK with Yougov today

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022
    Right, because I bet next to none of them have ever “voted” RefUK
    Refuk stand for nothing concrete. There is no positive reason for even the most poujadiste golf club bore to vote for them in an election.

    People voted UKIP because they wanted Britain out of the EU and wanted migration reduced. Both were aspirations with a realistic chance of influencing Tory policy at the very least.

    People voted BXP because they wanted the government to hurry up and get on with a diamond hard Brexit. They were a perfect single issue vote.

    Many people vote Green as a similar kind of message to the main parties: “don’t forget the environment”, and whilst I can’t (or dare not) guess the motivations of all SNP voters I do know that some vote Plaid as a way of saying “don’t forget about us”.

    But REFUK? If they stand for anything it’s general disgruntlement at things like wokeism, speed bumps and health and safety regulations. And a feeling that Brexit isn’t as successful as it really ought to be. None of that is in any danger of seriously influencing policy.
    Plus slashing the channel boat crossings and anti any further lockdowns and deeper tax cuts
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    edited December 2022
    checklist said:

    Taz said:

    Fashion designer Dame Vivienne Westwood has departed.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64122181

    "departed."

    Jesus H Christ. You sure she hasn't "passed"?
    F*ck off Ishmael you useless old soak. Oh, and I termed it like that as I knew you’d react. Like Pavlovs dogs. What a mug.

    How many sock puppets is this now ?

    What kind of pathetic sorry f*cker gets banned from somewhere multiple times but keeps coming back with new aliases just to argue and bicker. Take the hint. Pitiful specimen.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Prince Andrew the Musical now on C4

    The hills are alive
    With the sound of paedos

    Or what? Why is this a thing?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 119,498

    Labour enjoys a 26-point lead over the Tories heading into 2023, a study revealed tonight.

    A People Polling survey for GB News puts Keir Starmer’s party on 45%, the Conservatives on just 19% and the Lib Dems on 8%.

    Worryingly for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, Nigel Farage’s latest electoral vehicle, the Reform Party, enjoys the support of 8% of voters.

    Politics expert Professor Matt Goodwin said of the survey: “This is more bad news for Rishi Sunak and his team.

    “The party’s recovery has not just stalled but now appears to be going backwards.

    “Keir Starmer and the Labour Party begin 2023 in prime position, with more than enough support for a majority at the next general election.

    No doubt the next Goodwin poll will have RefUK ahead of the LDs if they are already tied
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 69,033

    ydoethur said:

    TSE - Since you asked, I'll give you the story of the two brothers who went out West to establish a cattle ranch. After years of work, the ranch had become a big success, and so they invited their father out to visit. He admired what they had done, and asked them what the name of their ranch was. The brothers said they hadn't picked one yet.

    The father thought a bit, and said: "How about Focus?"
    "Why Focus?", asked the older brother.
    The father explained: "Because that's where the suns rays meet."

    (You did ask.)

    That's almost as bad as the 'what cheese would you use to hide a horse' joke.
    Mask our pony?
    That's the one.

    As @IshmaelZ said, it's not a pointless exercise, but you would only do it to hide a dodgy fetalock.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    HYUFD said:

    Prince Andrew the Musical now on C4

    I’m watching an episode of Special Branch from 1970. festive TV is dire.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 33,915
    Taz said:

    checklist said:

    Taz said:

    Fashion designer Dame Vivienne Westwood has departed.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64122181

    "departed."

    Jesus H Christ. You sure she hasn't "passed"?
    F*ck off Ishmael you useless old soak. Oh, and I termed it like that as I knew you’d react. Like Pavlovs dogs. What a mug.

    How many sock puppets is this now ?

    What kind of pathetic sorry f*cker gets banned from somewhere multiple times but keeps coming back with new aliases just to argue and bicker. Take the hint. Pitiful specimen.
    If checklist is Ishmael, I'm glad the old sod's back.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 12,567
    checklist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting set of tweets from George Trefgarne, financial PR guy and former city editor for the Telegraph.

    1. I have been talking to various international business people and it is impossible to over-estimate the extent to which global investors and business figures are now very negative towards the UK, regarding it politicians and policies as a joke

    2. In some ways it is worse than the 1970s because at least the solution - a dose of Thatcherism, presented itself. But the choice now is only Labour which has decided to emit rather left-wing signals in the last couple of months.

    3. Somebody in the UK Govt needs to see it as their responsibility to present the UK as a pro-business, pro-growth place to invest. Words I hear are "joke" or "backwater" or "a global irrelevance" or "run by lunatics" or "Britain is finished as a serious country".

    All of them neoliberal globalists no doubt with little interest in national sovereignty and pro open borders immigration
    Possibly, but guess whwther I am invested 90% outside or 90% inside the UK?
    “Whwther” 🤣🤣🤣🤣
  • Options
    Taz said:

    checklist said:

    Taz said:

    Fashion designer Dame Vivienne Westwood has departed.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64122181

    "departed."

    Jesus H Christ. You sure she hasn't "passed"?
    F*ck off Ishmael you useless old soak. Oh, and I termed it like that as I knew you’d react. Like Pavlovs dogs. What a mug.

    How many sock puppets is this now ?

    What kind of pathetic sorry f*cker gets banned from somewhere multiple times but keeps coming back with new aliases just to argue and bicker. Take the hint. Pitiful specimen.
    #lowermiddleclasseuphemism

    #social climber

    Who is "Ishmael"?

    Xxx
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,109
    Taz said:

    checklist said:

    Taz said:

    Fashion designer Dame Vivienne Westwood has departed.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-64122181

    "departed."

    Jesus H Christ. You sure she hasn't "passed"?
    F*ck off Ishmael you useless old soak. Oh, and I termed it like that as I knew you’d react. Like Pavlovs dogs. What a mug.

    How many sock puppets is this now ?

    What kind of pathetic sorry f*cker gets banned from somewhere multiple times but keeps coming back with new aliases just to argue and bicker. Take the hint. Pitiful specimen.
    But you love him really.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    TimS said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

    As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

    Predicted the other day.
    If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
    It isn't now.
    I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166
    Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?
    There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.
    JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

    Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001
    If only there were some sort of logical link between your paragraph one and paragraph two….
    JRM is the Tory Corbyn, he rallies the base even if toxic to swing voters and centrists
    Just the minor problem that Corbyn won votes from those who normally didn’t, or who hadn’t before, whereas JRM….doesn’t. Insofar as he has supporters, they are all Tory voters already.
    No he didn't, he won a few votes from people who normally voted Green.

    Plenty of voters who now vote RefUK would vote for a Mogg led Tories.

    There aren’t plenty of voters “who now vote RefUK”
    Wrong, 8% of the electorate now back RefUK with Yougov today

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022
    Right, because I bet next to none of them have ever “voted” RefUK
    Refuk stand for nothing concrete. There is no positive reason for even the most poujadiste golf club bore to vote for them in an election.

    People voted UKIP because they wanted Britain out of the EU and wanted migration reduced. Both were aspirations with a realistic chance of influencing Tory policy at the very least.

    People voted BXP because they wanted the government to hurry up and get on with a diamond hard Brexit. They were a perfect single issue vote.

    Many people vote Green as a similar kind of message to the main parties: “don’t forget the environment”, and whilst I can’t (or dare not) guess the motivations of all SNP voters I do know that some vote Plaid as a way of saying “don’t forget about us”.

    But REFUK? If they stand for anything it’s general disgruntlement at things like wokeism, speed bumps and health and safety regulations. And a feeling that Brexit isn’t as successful as it really ought to be. None of that is in any danger of seriously influencing policy.
    Plus slashing the channel boat crossings and anti any further lockdowns and deeper tax cuts
    All utterly absurd as a map for government.

    But blooming powerful as a grumble list to hurt the Conservatives.
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    New from @PeoplePolling 28 Dec: Cons on 19%
    Lab 45%
    Con 19%
    Green 9%
    Lib Dem 8%
    Reform 8%
    (From press release)

    I guess it could flip again, Labour has done it from a similar position, why not the Tories?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,965
    edited December 2022
    I have become aware that Gillingham have scored the grand total of six league goals this season. They are towards the end of their 22nd game. (Scoreless again).
    Yet somehow they've got 14 points.

    Edit: As I typed that, they have inevitably just scored!
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,363
    So I just clicked on the link regards Vivien Westwood and now I see Pele has died too! Hopefully after my delayed flight I'll actually get home tonight even if I'm waiting for an hour at Cheltenham station.
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