Latest YouGov has Brexit becoming even more unpopular – politicalbetting.com

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Latest YouGov has Brexit becoming even more unpopular – politicalbetting.com

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SeaShantyIrish2

Avoid Assiduous Aardvaarks!

Addendum - Ditto Weirdly Woke Wombats!

checklist

Bewail Benevolent Beavers

checklist

Conciliate Cantankerous Cockroaches

SeaShantyIrish2

Detest Devious Dandelions

SeaShantyIrish2

Entertain Exotic Eggplants

Daveyboy1961

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Entertain Exotic Eggplants

foreign fishing futile

checklist

Friendzone Festive Fruitflies

SeaShantyIrish2

Glad-hand Giggling Gnu

(or is it "Gni"?)

dixiedean

Good grief guys.

TheScreamingEagles

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

SeaShantyIrish2

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Gove Goes Gaga?

WillG

This is a meaningless question. What matters is whether people will want to Rejoin. I would love to see that question using the "best short pitch" from both sides. E.g.

Supporters of the EU say we would increase economic growth and allow easier travel to mainland Europe by rejoining. Opponents say we would subject ourselves to laws we have little say in and lose control over immigration. Would you support staying outside the EU or rejoining the EU?

dixiedean

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

kinabalu

Hooray Henry Holocaust!

Is this what we're doing?

HYUFD

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

TheScreamingEagles

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

We're getting our burgundy passports back!

Some wise fellow, with unparalleled modesty back in 2016 called this.

THE BREXITEERS, JUNCKER’S FIFTH COLUMNISTS?

How the Leavers may have ultimately signed the United Kingdom up for the single currency, the Schengen agreement, an EU Army, and a United States of Europe.

https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/10/18/the-brexiteers-junckers-fifth-columnists

dixiedean

Think you had a bad day at work?
GP surgery sends out "You have aggressive lung cancer" text.
Instead of "Merry Christmas".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-64116668.amp

WillG

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

There is a 0% chance a Rejoiner wins the Tory leadership election.

LostPassword

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

We're a long way from that point.

I think we could end up in a stable state where it's generally accepted that Brexit was a mistake, but that it's too much trouble to fix it.

tlg86

I’m old enough to remember OGH telling us that people didn’t care about the issue of Europe.

HYUFD

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

slade

Apparently ChatGPD tells jokes. What did one ocean say to the other? Nothing, they just waved.

dixiedean

WillG said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

There is a 0% chance a Rejoiner wins the Tory leadership election.

Didn't say win. Nor did I say Rejoin.
Of course that won't happen. I said someone will run branding Brexit an error. And then the issue will have to be addressed.

TheScreamingEagles

LostPassword said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

We're a long way from that point.

I think we could end up in a stable state where it's generally accepted that Brexit was a mistake, but that it's too much trouble to fix it.

It'll come down to the economy, if the UK ends up struggling then Brexit is part of the anti-growth coalition.

TheScreamingEagles

tlg86 said:

I’m old enough to remember OGH telling us that people didn’t care about the issue of Europe.

Things change, the UK is now home to the largest pro-EU movement in Europe.

kinabalu

WillG said:

This is a meaningless question. What matters is whether people will want to Rejoin. I would love to see that question using the "best short pitch" from both sides. E.g.

Supporters of the EU say we would increase economic growth and allow easier travel to mainland Europe by rejoining. Opponents say we would subject ourselves to laws we have little say in and lose control over immigration. Would you support staying outside the EU or rejoining the EU?

It's not meaningless. At a certain level of thinking it was a mistake it becomes perverse and sad to not feel able to reverse it.

kinabalu

dixiedean said:

Think you had a bad day at work?
GP surgery sends out "You have aggressive lung cancer" text.
Instead of "Merry Christmas".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-64116668.amp

Absolute classic! But in a sense the opposite would be worse.

RochdalePioneers

This doesn't mean rejoin - that's a political leap that would be very difficult to manage. But it does change the context of the next election. We will see a phalanx of Red Wall wazzock Tories like Gulles and Simon Clarke indignant that Brexit is right and you MUST re-elect them to preserve YOUR victory. And running against them Farage and his FUKUK party, with candidates literally foaming at the mouth in anger about how the Tories have betrayed Brexit.

How will this go down with an electorate pretty pissed off with the whole thing and increasingly aggrieved with the politicians who sold it to them in the first place? Methinks badly. Unless the Tories start to accept that perhaps Brexit hasn't been the huge success they claim, they are in danger of getting absolutely smashed in some of these seat they need to hold.

Daveyboy1961

WillG said:

This is a meaningless question. What matters is whether people will want to Rejoin. I would love to see that question using the "best short pitch" from both sides. E.g.

Supporters of the EU say we would increase economic growth and allow easier travel to mainland Europe by rejoining. Opponents say we would subject ourselves to laws we have little say in and lose control over immigration. Would you support staying outside the EU or rejoining the EU?

1) At the moment we are being subjected to laws we have no say in by a group of chancers in Downing Street...

2) Immigration, controlled or otherwise has never been an issue for me, remember immigration works both ways.

If they would have us, I would rejoin tomorrow.

Razedabode

I’ve still not seen the benefits of Brexit? Have they stopped trying to convince us of them?

We will vote to rejoin in some shape or form.

Stuartinromford

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I wonder who?

The True Believers won't want to say that, or be able to say it credibly.

So it would have to be a "Respecting the vote" Conservative. Are there many of them left? Hunt?

DecrepiterJohnL

kinabalu said:

WillG said:

This is a meaningless question. What matters is whether people will want to Rejoin. I would love to see that question using the "best short pitch" from both sides. E.g.

Supporters of the EU say we would increase economic growth and allow easier travel to mainland Europe by rejoining. Opponents say we would subject ourselves to laws we have little say in and lose control over immigration. Would you support staying outside the EU or rejoining the EU?

It's not meaningless. At a certain level of thinking it was a mistake it becomes perverse and sad to not feel able to reverse it.

The question is not meaningless but as others have intimated, the first impact might be on the Conservative leadership question. It is only a couple of threads since Boris was contemplating a return to the top job, and his prospects might well be bound up with enthusiasm for Brexit or its reversal.

kinabalu

LostPassword said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

We're a long way from that point.

I think we could end up in a stable state where it's generally accepted that Brexit was a mistake, but that it's too much trouble to fix it.

Yes, like so many things in life. I think it needs to get towards 70% to become something that triggers Labour to adopt Rejoin.

Gardenwalker

So, removing don’t knows (who have remained consistently confused since and even before the referendum), 61% think Brexit was a mistake and just 39% disagree.

Having said that, without specific advocacy from one party or another, I agree that the default trajectory from here is to simply agree it was a mistake and move on.

Stuartinromford

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

HYUFD

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for Brexit wrong (not even rejoin) to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

No_Offence_Alan

There is zero chance of either Labour or the Lib Dems even talking about rejoining until they have a leader elected at the 2019 general election or later, untainted by the 2016 - 2019 shenannigans.

checklist

kinabalu said:

dixiedean said:

Think you had a bad day at work?
GP surgery sends out "You have aggressive lung cancer" text.
Instead of "Merry Christmas".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-64116668.amp

Absolute classic! But in a sense the opposite would be worse.

As someone in the link points out, there's probably one person who is going to say phew and then get a follow up saying they were the intended recipient.

ydoethur

The issue is, that's not radically different from the opinion polls before the referendum which had 'remain' consistently ahead.

Just as the Sindy polls, even now, aren't crazily different from 2014, when some also put Leave ahead.

When those figures are consistently at 60%+ (either way) is when we should be thinking about a sea change in public opinion.

What the Brexit government (and the UK government over Scotland) have consistently failed to do is reach out to the sizeable minority on the losing side and try and address their concerns.

Of course for some people, that would be impossible. Scott will never cease mourning for the EU or Stuart find a good word for the English. But there's a huge mass that could be persuaded that isn't being.

solarflare

kinabalu said:

dixiedean said:

Think you had a bad day at work?
GP surgery sends out "You have aggressive lung cancer" text.
Instead of "Merry Christmas".

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-64116668.amp

Absolute classic! But in a sense the opposite would be worse.

Even worse would be a cross-typo in the messages:

"Merry lung cancer!"
"Aggressive Christmas!"

solarflare

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for Brexit wrong (not even rejoin) to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

It's not one from the John Curtice top drawer, I'll be honest with you.

Stuartinromford

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for rejoin to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

Two things.

First, there was a quirk in the 2016 vote. The very oldest voters (who actually experienced WW2) were less Leavey than the ones slightly below them. Peak Brexit vote was the first generation boomers.

More importantly, you can't directly compare 48/100 (in the referendum where there no DKs) with 53/87 (in a poll where DKs were counted). The nearest (but imperfect) like-for-like would be to call 53/87, 61 percent. You're not a fool, but at some point you do need to learn to respect statistics.

Gardenwalker

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for rejoin to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

Two things.

First, there was a quirk in the 2016 vote. The very oldest voters (who actually experienced WW2) were less Leavey than the ones slightly below them. Peak Brexit vote was the first generation boomers.

More importantly, you can't directly compare 48/100 (in the referendum where there no DKs) with 53/87 (in a poll where DKs were counted). The nearest (but imperfect) like-for-like would be to call 53/87, 61 percent. You're not a fool, but at some point you do need to learn to respect statistics.

Thank you for noting that quirk, it’s easily forgotten.

My 87-yo father supported Remain and described Brexit as pure stupidity. He left school at 15 and is probably best described as “white working class”.

(He has other, less centrist views but I will spare the details).

Sunil_Prasannan

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for Brexit wrong (not even rejoin) to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

I remember a Pinko Communist called HYUFD voting Remain in 2016!

HYUFD

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for Brexit wrong (not even rejoin) to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

I remember a Pinko Communist called HYUFD voting Remain in 2016!

I did but would now vote to stay out on the present deal

Gardenwalker

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for rejoin to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

Two things.

First, there was a quirk in the 2016 vote. The very oldest voters (who actually experienced WW2) were less Leavey than the ones slightly below them. Peak Brexit vote was the first generation boomers.

More importantly, you can't directly compare 48/100 (in the referendum where there no DKs) with 53/87 (in a poll where DKs were counted). The nearest (but imperfect) like-for-like would be to call 53/87, 61 percent. You're not a fool, but at some point you do need to learn to respect statistics.

HYUFD freely admits that he sees his role as providing the most best argument he can for “his side”.

He actually voted Remain of course, but that was before we went to war with Eastasia.

IanB2

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

JosiasJessop

Off-topic:

For those on here who like railways and/or maps, the New Adlestrop railway map has been updated:
https://twitter.com/richardf/status/1608484036611301377

DecrepiterJohnL

One problem with Brexit is that Brexit became shorthand for a cluster of mainly right-wing views but also covid-scepticism and having been left behind economically. Even in the Conservative leadership election, Liz Truss was seen as the more authentic Brexiteer than Sunak, contrary to how they'd actually campaigned and voted on the narrow Brexit issue.

So if Brexit is now unpopular, which Brexit is that? Perhaps a question for focus groups rather than classic polls.

Gardenwalker

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

Absolutely.

It’s like polling men who like to unicycle, or who own a pair of puttees.

They are violently irrelevant to the modern world.

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

Which is why I included 2019 Tory voters too, who were 43% of the electorate in 2019.

As I pointed out they are actually even slightly more pro Brexit than current Tory voters, mainly as nearly a fifth of them have switched to RefUK now Sunak has replaced Boris as PM and Conservative leader

TheScreamingEagles

Pele has died.

HYUFD

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pele has died.

RIP a great footballer

ydoethur

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

bigjohnowls

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

SA cricket on the verge of financial collapse. SA20 seen as the financial saviour

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

That's Sir Andrew Strauss.

ydoethur

bigjohnowls said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

SA cricket on the verge of financial collapse. SA20 seen as the financial saviour

Yeah, because destroying their entire cricket system will really improve their financial position.

So far, the IPL and the Big Bash League are proving profitable. As is the Vitality Blast. I haven't seen any other league making significant money and at least one (the Hundred) ran at a loss in its first season.

TheScreamingEagles

Seven days without a pun makes one weak.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

That's Sir Andrew Strauss.

KCS - Knight Commander of the Shitter?

Malmesbury

Gardenwalker said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for rejoin to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

Two things.

First, there was a quirk in the 2016 vote. The very oldest voters (who actually experienced WW2) were less Leavey than the ones slightly below them. Peak Brexit vote was the first generation boomers.

More importantly, you can't directly compare 48/100 (in the referendum where there no DKs) with 53/87 (in a poll where DKs were counted). The nearest (but imperfect) like-for-like would be to call 53/87, 61 percent. You're not a fool, but at some point you do need to learn to respect statistics.

HYUFD freely admits that he sees his role as providing the most best argument he can for “his side”.

He actually voted Remain of course, but that was before we went to war with Eastasia.

I thought we had always been at war with Eurasia?

“I bought a Russian advent calendar. Every time I open a window an oligarch falls out.”

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Seven days without a pun makes one weak.

Two as bad as that would make a weak end.

No_Offence_Alan

DecrepiterJohnL said:

One problem with Brexit is that Brexit became shorthand for a cluster of mainly right-wing views but also covid-scepticism and having been left behind economically. Even in the Conservative leadership election, Liz Truss was seen as the more authentic Brexiteer than Sunak, contrary to how they'd actually campaigned and voted on the narrow Brexit issue.

So if Brexit is now unpopular, which Brexit is that? Perhaps a question for focus groups rather than classic polls.

I find the attempt of covid-sceptics to link to Brexit a bit of a non sequitur.
Older voters without passports were big supporters of both Brexit and lockdowns.
And of course they are the people most used to annual flu jabs.
I remember polls during lockdown where 20% of people never wanted nightclubs to re-open. I doubt if that 20% comprised many young Remainers.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

That's Sir Andrew Strauss.

KCS - Knight Commander of the Shitter?

Knight Bachelor.

Malmesbury

No_Offence_Alan said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

One problem with Brexit is that Brexit became shorthand for a cluster of mainly right-wing views but also covid-scepticism and having been left behind economically. Even in the Conservative leadership election, Liz Truss was seen as the more authentic Brexiteer than Sunak, contrary to how they'd actually campaigned and voted on the narrow Brexit issue.

So if Brexit is now unpopular, which Brexit is that? Perhaps a question for focus groups rather than classic polls.

I find the attempt of covid-sceptics to link to Brexit a bit of a non sequitur.
Older voters without passports were big supporters of both Brexit and lockdowns.
And of course they are the people most used to annual flu jabs.
I remember polls during lockdown where 20% of people never wanted nightclubs to re-open. I doubt if that 20% comprised many young Remainers.

Guess which group has the highest take up of the vaccine?

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

That's Sir Andrew Strauss.

KCS - Knight Commander of the Shitter?

Knight Bachelor.

He should keep plugging away for higher honours.

turbotubbs

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

SA cricket on the verge of financial collapse. SA20 seen as the financial saviour

Yeah, because destroying their entire cricket system will really improve their financial position.

So far, the IPL and the Big Bash League are proving profitable. As is the Vitality Blast. I haven't seen any other league making significant money and at least one (the Hundred) ran at a loss in its first season.

In some ways the hundred has been a big success (stop sniggering at the back). It has massively boosted the womens game and got it onto terrestrial TV (is that still a thing? Perhaps ‘free to watch’ is better). It was never intended for cricket lovers like you and me. We already love the game. It’s about finding new markets.
I also think England are possibly playing too many tests. How many this year to date? 16?

Roger

Stuartinromford said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I wonder who?

The True Believers won't want to say that, or be able to say it credibly.

So it would have to be a "Respecting the vote" Conservative. Are there many of them left? Hunt?

Hunt with a cri de coeur .......

"There is no way out.....

On this trajectory ......

I regret to say

We are ruined

My Party have brought this country to its knees

Rejoining the EU is our only hope"

bigjohnowls

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

SA cricket on the verge of financial collapse. SA20 seen as the financial saviour

Yeah, because destroying their entire cricket system will really improve their financial position.

So far, the IPL and the Big Bash League are proving profitable. As is the Vitality Blast. I haven't seen any other league making significant money and at least one (the Hundred) ran at a loss in its first season.

Well we will see, doing nothing isnt an option in SA Cricket.

People who claim to like "proper cricket" should realise there would be none without the subsidy from the short form. - Derbyshire CCC CEO at members forum October 2022

All 18 Counties received a huge sum from the 100 too, even though I don't like it and have never seen a single ball of it.

HYUFD

Roger said:

Stuartinromford said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I wonder who?

The True Believers won't want to say that, or be able to say it credibly.

So it would have to be a "Respecting the vote" Conservative. Are there many of them left? Hunt?

Hunt with a cri de coeur .......

"There is no way out.....

On this trajectory ......

I regret to say

We are ruined

My Party have brought this country to its knees

Rejoining the EU is our only hope"

Hunt will likely have lost his seat after the next general election.

ydoethur

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

SA cricket on the verge of financial collapse. SA20 seen as the financial saviour

Yeah, because destroying their entire cricket system will really improve their financial position.

So far, the IPL and the Big Bash League are proving profitable. As is the Vitality Blast. I haven't seen any other league making significant money and at least one (the Hundred) ran at a loss in its first season.

In some ways the hundred has been a big success (stop sniggering at the back). It has massively boosted the womens game and got it onto terrestrial TV (is that still a thing? Perhaps ‘free to watch’ is better). It was never intended for cricket lovers like you and me. We already love the game. It’s about finding new markets.
I also think England are possibly playing too many tests. How many this year to date? 16?

If however it continues to make significant financial losses then it will rather fail in its key purpose of bringing money into the game.

Agree with you about the Tests, but there is far too much of all international cricket.

turbotubbs

ydoethur said:

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

SA cricket on the verge of financial collapse. SA20 seen as the financial saviour

Yeah, because destroying their entire cricket system will really improve their financial position.

So far, the IPL and the Big Bash League are proving profitable. As is the Vitality Blast. I haven't seen any other league making significant money and at least one (the Hundred) ran at a loss in its first season.

In some ways the hundred has been a big success (stop sniggering at the back). It has massively boosted the womens game and got it onto terrestrial TV (is that still a thing? Perhaps ‘free to watch’ is better). It was never intended for cricket lovers like you and me. We already love the game. It’s about finding new markets.
I also think England are possibly playing too many tests. How many this year to date? 16?

If however it continues to make significant financial losses then it will rather fail in its key purpose of bringing money into the game.

Agree with you about the Tests, but there is far too much of all international cricket.

Yes. I have massive sympathy for our international cricketers. It’s far worse now than even the days when you took a boat to Australia. I know the rewards are huge, but too much. Those one dayers a few days after the T20 final… Were the organisers not expecting us to do well or something?

NickPalmer

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.

ydoethur

bigjohnowls said:

ydoethur said:

bigjohnowls said:

ydoethur said:

I wonder if Andrew Strauss and his fellow ECB idiots will read this:

Since South Africa's domestic system was restructured in the 2021-22 season, their provincial teams play seven matches a season instead of the ten they played before. With the launch of the SA20 this season, those matches are pushed to the margins of the summer. The SA20 was also cited as one of the main reasons for South Africa's lean Test schedule in the next Future Tours Programme. They will play 28 Tests in the next four-year cycle, no three-Test series until at least 2026, and only four Tests in 2023.

And they have lost four tests on the spin...

SA cricket on the verge of financial collapse. SA20 seen as the financial saviour

Yeah, because destroying their entire cricket system will really improve their financial position.

So far, the IPL and the Big Bash League are proving profitable. As is the Vitality Blast. I haven't seen any other league making significant money and at least one (the Hundred) ran at a loss in its first season.

Well we will see, doing nothing isnt an option in SA Cricket.

People who claim to like "proper cricket" should realise there would be none without the subsidy from the short form. - Derbyshire CCC CEO at members forum October 2022

All 18 Counties received a huge sum from the 100 too, even though I don't like it and have never seen a single ball of it.

All that is true.

But the Hundred is actively destroying the 50-over cup, which actually was profitable, and sending a ginormous subsidy to the counties which is far beyond what the competition is raising in revenue. At the same time, damaging the Blast and wrecking the Championship.

It was madness when suggested, madness now it is running and will be madness until the plug is pulled, if English cricket can survive that long.

And that is not about the quality of the cricket, the gimmickry or the naked power grab by the ECB at the expense of the county members they despise so much. That's purely looking at the money.

IanB2

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.

Excepting his gusto wasn’t that impressive when he actually has the job of identifying the upside?

Northern_Al

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

GIN1138

Two days before another new year... And PB is still debating Brexit!

turbotubbs

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Spot on. PB folk are not normal. Normal folk are still eating leftovers, watching rubbish TV and thinking about New Years Eve. The last three years of shitness are inextricably linked to Brexit just as much as covid in their minds, if they think about it at all.

Northern_Al

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.

I agree with Nick. JRM would make a splendid Tory leader.

GIN1138

Northern_Al said:

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.

I agree with Nick. JRM would make a splendid Tory leader.

I doubt JRM will be an MP at the next election though the Tories could go back to 18th Century and Lord Rees-Moog leads the party from HoL I suppose...

Foxy

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.

Yep, being tied to Brexit sentences the Tories to electoral oblivion. I shall enjoy dancing the jig on that grave.

kle4

Northern_Al said:

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.

I agree with Nick. JRM would make a splendid Tory leader.

I'm not sure the Tories are as ready for a revolutionary radical like JRM, who invents new constitutional rules to whatever he wants on any given day, as they might think they are.

checklist

GIN1138 said:

Two days before a new year... And PB is still debating Brexit!

A bafflingly stupid point. To think it worth making you would have to be unable to understand that the future is dictated by the past. Inductive reasoning would be a closed book to you. You would have an unanswerable claim for disability benefits and a carer's allowance.

It's like saying hur hur, these climate change blokes are still discussing the effects of the industrial revolution.

Good post otherwise.

Luckyguy1983

Roger said:

Stuartinromford said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I wonder who?

The True Believers won't want to say that, or be able to say it credibly.

So it would have to be a "Respecting the vote" Conservative. Are there many of them left? Hunt?

Hunt with a cri de coeur .......

"There is no way out.....

On this trajectory ......

I regret to say

We are ruined

My Party have brought this country to its knees

Rejoining the EU is our only hope"

The wishful remoaner wanking on display here.

kle4

GIN1138 said:

Northern_Al said:

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.

I agree with Nick. JRM would make a splendid Tory leader.

I doubt JRM will be an MP at the next election.

So the Tories do have some positives to look forward to then.

HYUFD

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.

JRM would rally the pro Brexit, anti Woke right though behind the Tories, just as Corbyn rallied the anti Iraq war, anti austerity left behind Labour.

Remember for all Corbyn's faults even in 2019 he got a higher voteshare than Ed Miliband and Brown did in 2015 and 2010 and in 2017 almost as high as Blair got in 2001

Foxy

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Yes but such is life in politics. For years the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country, now it is Brexit (and the party of Brexit) blamed for everything.

HYUFD

GIN1138 said:

Northern_Al said:

NickPalmer said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If this polling is sustained over the next few years then rejoin gets added to the table of political discourse in this country.

As Mikey Gove said, if the country deems Brexit a mistake they will vote to overturn it.

Predicted the other day.
If the Tories lose, someone will run for leader on a Brexit = mistake ticket. All bets will then be off as to how it plays out, as the issue will be openly on the table.
It isn't now.

I highly doubt it, even on this Yougov poll 71% of Tory voters and 72% of 2019 Tory voters think Brexit was right still. 17% of 2019 Tory voters now back RefUK. Even Rees Mogg is preparing a leadership bid if Sunak loses on the basis he was not rightwing enough
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/29/voting-intention-con-24-lab-48-20-21-dec-2022

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/jacob-rees-mogg-tories-next-general-election-leadership-bid-2051166

Did you miss that Tory voters are now in a small minority?

There is an objective difficulty for the Tories here, in that any new leader needs to be elected by people who still think Brexit is great and needs to be defended, while the voters in general increasingly see it as at best inessential to their happiness. Unless the Government can do things to make people feel it was all worthwhile, they will keep electing leaders who feel tied to a passionate minority view. Electing JRM would be logical - he'd defend Brexit with gusto, just as most members want - but really unlikely to lead to electoral success.

I agree with Nick. JRM would make a splendid Tory leader.

I doubt JRM will be an MP at the next election though the Tories could go back to 18th Century and Lord Rees-Moog leads the party from HoL I suppose...

Somerset North East is only 150th on the Labour target list and 47th on the LD list. That also means less tactical voting as both Labour and the LDs will target it. So he should hold on

kinabalu

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Yes. The people who thought it would bring tangible benefit will be disappointed. Those for whom it was mainly emotional will be ok.

Tres

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for Brexit wrong (not even rejoin) to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

This is an apple. And this is a fucking orange!

Luckyguy1983

Foxy said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Yes but such is life in politics. For years the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country, now it is Brexit (and the party of Brexit) blamed for everything.

Yes. And blaming it for everything, including the shit job our own civil services are doing in every area, has so far resulted in 'Brexit wrong' acheiving the dizzying heights of 53% - which isn't even rejoin. You have to be actively *trying* not to make it work (like mandarins destroying Kate Bingham's vaccine taskforce work) even to get this paltry result.

williamglenn

Foxy said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Yes but such is life in politics. For years the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country, now it is Brexit (and the party of Brexit) blamed for everything.

The idea that the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country with the country is a myth that's been created since Brexit.

Foxy

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Yes but such is life in politics. For years the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country, now it is Brexit (and the party of Brexit) blamed for everything.

Yes. And blaming it for everything, including the shit job our own civil services are doing in every area, has so far resulted in 'Brexit wrong' acheiving the dizzying heights of 53% - which isn't even rejoin. You have to be actively *trying* not to make it work (like mandarins destroying Kate Bingham's vaccine taskforce work) even to get this paltry result.

On the same criteria of ignoring the Don't Knows Brexit has only 34% support and dropping fast.

You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but there is no hiding the truth. The Tories are chained to a corpse, and that corpse is Brexit.

Foxy

williamglenn said:

Foxy said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Yes but such is life in politics. For years the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country, now it is Brexit (and the party of Brexit) blamed for everything.

The idea that the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country with the country is a myth that's been created since Brexit.

Possibly so, but myths have power. Brexit, and the reactionary ideas it encompasses, doom the Tories to opposition. Oh dear, never mind.

EPG

williamglenn said:

Foxy said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Yes but such is life in politics. For years the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country, now it is Brexit (and the party of Brexit) blamed for everything.

The idea that the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country with the country is a myth that's been created since Brexit.

Literally blamed the EU for the state of Lansley's NHS.

Leon

Let's talk practicalities. Labour have one chance to "reverse" Brexit: their first and possibly single term in office after the GE of 2024

They will have a big majority, Starmer will enjoy a honeymoon, Starmer can point to the newly dire economic circs and say "it's worse than we feared, soz, we are rejoining the SM"

He will not get the chance again. They could lose in 28-29 and the Tories will be detoxed by opposition

It will be a paradoxical moment. Does Starmer go all out to make the country work "despite" Brexit? If he does and he succeeds then Brexit is with us forever. He will be a successful PM but he will never get us back in the EU

Or does he go all out and abandon all his pledges, and walk us back in to the SM/CU? That too is a perilous course

HYUFD

Foxy said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Foxy said:

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Yes but such is life in politics. For years the EU was blamed for everything wrong with the country, now it is Brexit (and the party of Brexit) blamed for everything.

Yes. And blaming it for everything, including the shit job our own civil services are doing in every area, has so far resulted in 'Brexit wrong' acheiving the dizzying heights of 53% - which isn't even rejoin. You have to be actively *trying* not to make it work (like mandarins destroying Kate Bingham's vaccine taskforce work) even to get this paltry result.

On the same criteria of ignoring the Don't Knows Brexit has only 34% support and dropping fast.

You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but there is no hiding the truth. The Tories are chained to a corpse, and that corpse is Brexit.

34% is at least 5 to 10% more than the Sunak Tories are polling now

Mexicanpete

GIN1138 said:

Two days before another new year... And PB is still debating Brexit!

Well you Brexiteers have been debating leaving the EU from Wilson's Common Market Referendum all the way to Johnson laughably claiming to have "done Brexit-".

glw

Northern_Al said:

On topic, even as an avid pro-EU chap I'm not really persuaded by this type of polling. I'm not at all sure that most people understand enough about the consequences of Brexit to come to a considered view.

I reckon all that's happening is people thinking: well, the last few years have been a bit shit - Covid, cost of living, the economy etc. Brexit hasn't made life better, so logically Brexit must be a bit shit too.

Exactly. When you ask in detail what the people want the people don't want the EU as it is, the don't even want the EEA, they want cake, cake, and more cake.

dixiedean

Leon said:

Let's talk practicalities. Labour have one chance to "reverse" Brexit: their first and possibly single term in office after the GE of 2024

They will have a big majority, Starmer will enjoy a honeymoon, Starmer can point to the newly dire economic circs and say "it's worse than we feared, soz, we are rejoining the SM"

He will not get the chance again. They could lose in 28-29 and the Tories will be detoxed by opposition

It will be a paradoxical moment. Does Starmer go all out to make the country work "despite" Brexit? If he does and he succeeds then Brexit is with us forever. He will be a successful PM but he will never get us back in the EU

Or does he go all out and abandon all his pledges, and walk us back in to the SM/CU? That too is a perilous course

Labour pro-EU, Tories anti isn't set in stone though.
The positions have been reversed in our lifetimes.
No reason to suspect current positioning is immutable.

Andy_Cooke

HYUFD said:

Stuartinromford said:

HYUFD said:

Or to put it another way, just 53% think Brexit was wrong including DKs

Those aren't brilliant ratings for the government's flagship policy, are they?

Also, look at the trend, then tell me what breaks that trend.

48% voted Remain even in 2016, so for Brexit wrong (not even rejoin) to just be on 53% is not much to write home about, especially as many of the oldest Leavers will already have died

Wrong.
But you knew that, didn’t you?
Including those who didn’t choose either way in one and comparing it with one where you explicitly excluded those who didn’t choose either way is dishonest.

As the Brexit referendum went 37% Leave, 35% Remain, 28% DNV, then the side you cite has increased from 35% to 53% of the electorate. Or 48% to 61% of those who made a choice.

Either way, it’s considerably more than your bait and switch attempt implies.