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Are the Tories too far behind to recover? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,794
edited January 2023 in General
imageAre the Tories too far behind to recover? – politicalbetting.com

In an analysis in the I the prominent political scientist Professor John Curtice suggests that the Tories might be too far behind to stage a meaningful recovery to avoid being defeated at the next general election

Read the full story here

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  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    If Sunak can squeeze the Don't Knows and RefUK he could get a hung parliament yet
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    In response to Mike's question - No.

    18 months ago, we were talking about Starmer going if he lost B&S. Things change quickly.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    Starmer should be a 90% chance, or more

    I just can’t see a way back for the Tories. They need a total game changer and Sunak is not a game-changing politician

    The only “hope” for them is a black swan - war, AI takeover, aliens - and black swans are not 10% chances

    Labour will be the next government, very likely with a healthy majority. Starmer will also pick up some handy seats in Scotland

  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,988
    edited December 2022
    Leon said:

    Starmer should be a 90% chance, or more

    I just can’t see a way back for the Tories. They need a total game changer and Sunak is not a game-changing politician

    The only “hope” for them is a black swan - war, AI takeover, aliens - and black swans are not 10% chances

    Labour will be the next government, very likely with a healthy majority. Starmer will also pick up some handy seats in Scotland

    This is the totally correct analysis.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,099
    edited December 2022
    Yes, the Tories have reached the point of no return (however they will stage something of a recovery between now and January 2025 so Labour should only win with a small overall majority in the end)

    Happy Boxing Day PB
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,099
    I think someone's had too much Vodka this Christmas lol

    https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1607487338401206273
  • Options
    I'm sure BJO and MoonRabbit will tell us how they can recover.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,591
    edited December 2022
    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,217
    "Soleio
    @soleio

    Every time I use ChatGPT, I’m reminded of Steve Jobs describing it in this Playboy interview, Feb 1985"

    https://twitter.com/soleio/status/1607106379357249536?cxt=HHwWgIDTnZevy80sAAAA
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295
    If Sunak had any sense he'd take Farage out of play by making him High Commissioner to New Zealand or something. Tice is a complete fucking nothing but Farage back in Refuk could be the difference between an honourable massacre like Zulu or utter degradation like Salo for the tories.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,988
    Dura_Ace said:

    If Sunak had any sense he'd take Farage out of play by making him High Commissioner to New Zealand or something. Tice is a complete fucking nothing but Farage back in Refuk could be the difference between an honourable massacre like Zulu or utter degradation like Salo for the tories.

    New Zealand doesn’t want that arsehole.
    Send him to Hungary.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,877

    Leon said:

    Starmer should be a 90% chance, or more

    I just can’t see a way back for the Tories. They need a total game changer and Sunak is not a game-changing politician

    The only “hope” for them is a black swan - war, AI takeover, aliens - and black swans are not 10% chances

    Labour will be the next government, very likely with a healthy majority. Starmer will also pick up some handy seats in Scotland

    This is the totally correct analysis.
    Despite its author having tried to dine out on making a string of those 10% (almost certainly overestimated) chances….
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    edited December 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    If Sunak had any sense he'd take Farage out of play by making him High Commissioner to New Zealand or something. Tice is a complete fucking nothing but Farage back in Refuk could be the difference between an honourable massacre like Zulu or utter degradation like Salo for the tories.

    I doubt it, most people probably think Farage still is leader of RefUK.

    Farage in any case has said he is happy with his current life, including attending the Boxing Day hunt today

    https://www.joe.co.uk/news/nigel-farage-wont-run-for-parliament-seat-again-371864

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1607418461457903616?t=o1-vznxCWAvKnoE7r9ag1A&s=19
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,517
    Yes

    Labour largest party after next election is 95%+ in my view.

    Which in turn means that Labour will form the next government (95%+) - either some kind of coalition, supply or outright majority.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,073
    edited December 2022
    As things stand the Tories cannot look the voters in the eye and ask to be trusted for another five years. The fundamentals are appalling.

    There is no hiding. If Sunak does miraculously dig us out of the economic and political hole the nation finds itself in, the Tories were still the ones who dug it in the first place.

    We need fresh ideas, fresh faces and a democracy that punishes negligence.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,517
    GIN1138 said:

    I think someone's had too much Vodka this Christmas lol

    https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1607487338401206273

    It’s a list of things that are the reverse of what the author fears - reflect in a mirror to see what he wakes up in a cold sweat, having dreamt about….
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    edited December 2022
    Jonathan said:

    As things stand the Tories cannot look the voters in the eye and ask to be trusted for another five years. The fundamentals are appalling.

    There is no hiding. If Sunak does miraculously did us out of the economic and political hole the nation finds itself in, the Tories were still the ones who dug it in the first place.

    We need fresh ideas, fresh faces and a democracy that punishes negligence.

    If the Tories do however somehow win the next general election that will be a 5th consecutive general election win and likely 19 years in power. Longer in government than any party since universal suffrage or indeed since the Tory governments of the Earl of Liverpool and the Duke of Wellington
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    As things stand the Tories cannot look the voters in the eye and ask to be trusted for another five years. The fundamentals are appalling.

    There is no hiding. If Sunak does miraculously did us out of the economic and political hole the nation finds itself in, the Tories were still the ones who dug it in the first place.

    We need fresh ideas, fresh faces and a democracy that punishes negligence.

    Not getting any of that from Sir K Interesting with a 200 seat majority.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    Do you have spin doctors who send you out to do carefully selected stuff? Without them, do you get by OK?
  • Options

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    His problem is not just that he looks out of touch, he actually *is* out of touch.
    All the more reason for not advertising the fact.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 26,003
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Thank you Lord Astor.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,988

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    His problem is not just that he looks out of touch, he actually *is* out of touch.
    All the more reason for not advertising the fact.
    I think he just needs to lean in to it and do a guest stint in the Carole Vorderman / Rachel Riley role on Countdown.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,073
    checklist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    Do you have spin doctors who send you out to do carefully selected stuff? Without them, do you get by OK?
    Truss beat Sunak. Always important to remember that. In part, that was because she was the more normal of the two.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,302
    HYUFD said:

    If Sunak can squeeze the Don't Knows and RefUK he could get a hung parliament yet

    It's possible, but I don't think probable. Why would Don't Knows swing for the Tories at this stage? Starmer is too careful.

    Leon really does nail it on this occasion - the Tories need a game changer, and they don't have it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    Jonathan said:

    checklist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    Do you have spin doctors who send you out to do carefully selected stuff? Without them, do you get by OK?
    Truss beat Sunak. Always important to remember that. In part, that was because she was the more normal of the two.
    It is fascinating to think where we’d be if Penny Mordaunt had not been a bit too Woke

    She would be PM, probably quite good at it, and the Tories might have a small polling lead
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,302
    edited December 2022
    Jonathan said:

    checklist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    Do you have spin doctors who send you out to do carefully selected stuff? Without them, do you get by OK?
    Truss beat Sunak. Always important to remember that. In part, that was because she was the more normal of the two.
    I'm not sure it was a big part of it. But she was slightly weird in a perfectly normal for politics way. I've never really understood where the idea Sunak is some excellent communicator came from - his videos are slick, but he personally is just...fine.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,302
    edited December 2022
    Jonathan said:

    As things stand the Tories cannot look the voters in the eye and ask to be trusted for another five years. The fundamentals are appalling.

    There is no hiding. If Sunak does miraculously dig us out of the economic and political hole the nation finds itself in, the Tories were still the ones who dug it in the first place.

    We need fresh ideas, fresh faces and a democracy that punishes negligence.

    14 years is a long time to be in office, and there's been a lot of big events to shake confidence and prevent that becoming 19 years. If the 'time for a change' argument does not work now, when would the Tories ever lose?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    checklist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    Do you have spin doctors who send you out to do carefully selected stuff? Without them, do you get by OK?
    Truss beat Sunak. Always important to remember that. In part, that was because she was the more normal of the two.
    I'm not sure it was a big part of it. But she was slightly weird in a perfectly normal for politics way. I've never really understood where the idea Sunak is some excellent communicator came from - his videos are slick, but he personally is just...fine.
    It comes from the first Covid press conferences, where Boris was all bumbling and chutzpah, and Sunak by contrast seemed quite articulate and smooth

    Trouble is, that’s all there is. Quite articulate smoothness. He has zero common touch and not a lot of humour, no imagination or derring do, and he is way too divorced from working reality
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    If Sunak had any sense he'd take Farage out of play by making him High Commissioner to New Zealand or something. Tice is a complete fucking nothing but Farage back in Refuk could be the difference between an honourable massacre like Zulu or utter degradation like Salo for the tories.

    I doubt it, most people probably think Farage still is leader of RefUK.

    Farage in any case has said he is happy with his current life, including attending the Boxing Day hunt today

    https://www.joe.co.uk/news/nigel-farage-wont-run-for-parliament-seat-again-371864

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1607418461457903616?t=o1-vznxCWAvKnoE7r9ag1A&s=19
    I hope he gets sabbed. 👊
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,302

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    His problem is not just that he looks out of touch, he actually *is* out of touch.
    Being out of touch is not that big a problem, if people think you have answers to their problems anyway.

    The best thing I can say about Sunak is his 2 months in charge have been admirably free of drama, despite the occasional ridiculousness like trying to pretend Braverman took responsibility for her actions by being out of office for a couple of days.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    checklist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    Do you have spin doctors who send you out to do carefully selected stuff? Without them, do you get by OK?
    Truss beat Sunak. Always important to remember that. In part, that was because she was the more normal of the two.
    It is fascinating to think where we’d be if Penny Mordaunt had not been a bit too Woke

    She would be PM, probably quite good at it, and the Tories might have a small polling lead
    Why would she be good at it? From the available evidence she didn't seem to be much good at the sequence of governements jobs of declining seniority that she had. Simping for Mordaunt is an occasional and bizarre aberration that afflicts pb tories of a certain age and state of prostate inflamation.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 45,517

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    His problem is not just that he looks out of touch, he actually *is* out of touch.
    All the more reason for not advertising the fact.
    Sunak’s problem is actually that the zeitgeist is now against him on this - he didn’t actually ask a homeless guy if he worked in finance but that is what people could easily believe.

    Much as Brown as the Clunking Fist was people projecting onto his actions with that interpretation.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,653
    GIN1138 said:

    I think someone's had too much Vodka this Christmas lol

    https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1607487338401206273

    You mean the way he has the UK rejoining the EU and then the EU collapsing as a consequence of us being in the Euro?

    Bear in mind that these aren't his predictions for the next decade, they are his predictions for 2023.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,302
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    checklist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    Do you have spin doctors who send you out to do carefully selected stuff? Without them, do you get by OK?
    Truss beat Sunak. Always important to remember that. In part, that was because she was the more normal of the two.
    It is fascinating to think where we’d be if Penny Mordaunt had not been a bit too Woke

    She would be PM, probably quite good at it, and the Tories might have a small polling lead
    Why would she be good at it? From the available evidence she didn't seem to be much good at the sequence of governements jobs of declining seniority that she had. Simping for Mordaunt is an occasional and bizarre aberration that afflicts pb tories of a certain age and state of prostate inflamation.
    Truss and Sunak have trusted Mordaunt with nothing more than Leader of the House, a post whose function is to help manage the business of real Cabinet Ministers, and which notably was the most Boris was willing to let Rees-Mogg do (he gave him no proper department to run).

    Either they feared a rival, or they don't think she was up to much else - given she had decent showings in the leadership contests in terms of MPs support and doesn't appear that disliked, I'd suggest it is the latter.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    For any reasonable definition of charisma, it’s not a comparison with any meaning, whichever order you rank them in.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,302
    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    For any reasonable definition of charisma, it’s not a comparison with any meaning, whichever order you rank them in.
    Of Party leaders in the Commons they both definitely rank in the top 3.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    checklist said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Two years is an eternity in politics. The short-lived Truss premiership will be ancient history by then.

    It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.

    Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.

    I would say Sunak is more charismatic than Starmer
    Sunak's problem is the same as Brown's and Miliband's and Hague's and May's. His tone-deaf spin doctors keep sending him on photo-ops that make him look stupid and out of touch, from his bafflement at contactless payments, to asking homeless eaters whether they are in business.
    Do you have spin doctors who send you out to do carefully selected stuff? Without them, do you get by OK?
    Truss beat Sunak. Always important to remember that. In part, that was because she was the more normal of the two.
    It is fascinating to think where we’d be if Penny Mordaunt had not been a bit too Woke

    She would be PM, probably quite good at it, and the Tories might have a small polling lead
    Why would she be good at it? From the available evidence she didn't seem to be much good at the sequence of governements jobs of declining seniority that she had. Simping for Mordaunt is an occasional and bizarre aberration that afflicts pb tories of a certain age and state of prostate inflamation.
    Lol. Maybe

    But the others have set a fucking low bar. She would have been less catastrophic than Truss, and she’s much more approachable than Sunak (ie not a billionaire)

    We will never know
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    Can I just say that 1883, the prequel to Yelllowstone, is excellent

    A simple old fashioned western. The male lead is handsome, white, dependable, honourable, and reliably homicidal in a likeable way. Villains are simply shot dead on sight with no faff about stupid Woke concepts like “justice”

    Animals are gutted. Germans are mocked. The women are beautiful and kneel as they serve food to the men. It’s great
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    Hark The Aardvaark!
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,217
    Pakistan are in action again in Karachi, vs New Zealand.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/64096855
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    Andy_JS said:

    "Soleio
    @soleio

    Every time I use ChatGPT, I’m reminded of Steve Jobs describing it in this Playboy interview, Feb 1985"

    https://twitter.com/soleio/status/1607106379357249536?cxt=HHwWgIDTnZevy80sAAAA

    "Grow obsolete with grace" is a motto to live by.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 28,217
    edited December 2022
    This is probably going to be an innings victory for Australia vs South Africa at the MCG.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/63894124
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    Leon said:

    Starmer should be a 90% chance, or more

    I just can’t see a way back for the Tories. They need a total game changer and Sunak is not a game-changing politician

    The only “hope” for them is a black swan - war, AI takeover, aliens - and black swans are not 10% chances

    Labour will be the next government, very likely with a healthy majority. Starmer will also pick up some handy seats in Scotland

    Define “some”.

    If you mean five, fair enough.

    If you mean ten, you clearly haven’t looked at the new boundaries.

    If you mean fifteen, you’re into black swan territory

    Even if we accept that 15 SLab seats might just happen, that’s only 25% of Scottish seats. Not very “handy” and certainly nowhere near a mandate to impose policies repeatedly rejected by the electorate.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,635
    Leon said:

    Can I just say that 1883, the prequel to Yelllowstone, is excellent

    A simple old fashioned western. The male lead is handsome, white, dependable, honourable, and reliably homicidal in a likeable way. Villains are simply shot dead on sight with no faff about stupid Woke concepts like “justice”

    (Snip)

    I'd like to think that if I was on trial at the Old Bailey for a crime I didn't commit, I'd quite like the 'stupid' Woke concept of 'justice'. You know, instead of being summarily convicted without trial and/or shot.

    I bet you didn't think justice was 'woke' when you were up in front of the beak ... ;)
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    Good morning, everyone.

    Football: well, Aston Villa lost. Will peruse the markets today (I think Ligue 1 resumes tomorrow).

    Recovery, as in getting a higher percentage, is eminently possible. Winning outright is rather less likely and may well be impossible.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    edited December 2022

    Leon said:

    Can I just say that 1883, the prequel to Yelllowstone, is excellent

    A simple old fashioned western. The male lead is handsome, white, dependable, honourable, and reliably homicidal in a likeable way. Villains are simply shot dead on sight with no faff about stupid Woke concepts like “justice”

    (Snip)

    I'd like to think that if I was on trial at the Old Bailey for a crime I didn't commit, I'd quite like the 'stupid' Woke concept of 'justice'. You know, instead of being summarily convicted without trial and/or shot.

    I bet you didn't think justice was 'woke' when you were up in front of the beak ... ;)
    I think Leon might be doing the irony there.
    A bit.

    Though given the popularity of this fantasy drama with the US right, it's hard to be sure.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    “I never claimed to be Jewish,” Santos said. “I said I was `Jew-ish.'”
    https://mobile.twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1607546194309402625

    The extent of this guy's previously unexamined lies prior to his election is quite something.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    Both the Iranian and Russian regimes describe their murderous behaviour as the defense of God.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1607544400628051973
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,635
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Can I just say that 1883, the prequel to Yelllowstone, is excellent

    A simple old fashioned western. The male lead is handsome, white, dependable, honourable, and reliably homicidal in a likeable way. Villains are simply shot dead on sight with no faff about stupid Woke concepts like “justice”

    (Snip)

    I'd like to think that if I was on trial at the Old Bailey for a crime I didn't commit, I'd quite like the 'stupid' Woke concept of 'justice'. You know, instead of being summarily convicted without trial and/or shot.

    I bet you didn't think justice was 'woke' when you were up in front of the beak ... ;)
    I think Leon might be doing the irony there.
    A bit.

    Though given the popularity of this fantasy drama with the US right, it's hard to be sure.
    Yeah, his problem though is that he's always arguing and condemning wokeism, often IMO fallaciously. So it's hard to quite work out when he's being sarcastic or when his drug-addled brain causes him to just say something utterly dickwadish.

    In fact, have Leon and Musk ever been seen in the same room? ;)
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    ‘A sea change’: Biden reverses decades of Chinese trade policy

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/26/china-trade-tech-00072232
    After decades of U.S. efforts to engage China with the prospect of greater development through trade, the era of cooperation is coming to a screeching halt.

    The White House and Congress are quietly reshaping the American economic relationship with the world’s second-largest economic power, enacting a strategy to limit China’s technological development that breaks with decades of federal policy and represents the most aggressive American action yet to curtail Beijing’s economic and military rise.

    The new federal rules, executive orders and pending legislation aimed at China’s high-tech sectors, which began this fall and will continue in 2023, are the culmination of years of debate spanning three administrations. Taken together, they represent an escalation of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade disputes against Beijing that could ultimately do more to slow Chinese technological and economic development — and divide the two economies — than anything the 45th president did while in office...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    The other, positive arm of the policy will also be consequential.
    And was wrongly critiqued by Republicans at the time as just pork barrel spending.

    Those initiatives come on the heels of Biden’s “promote” agenda — using the government to promote American competitiveness. That involved the approval of hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies for domestic manufacturing in the CHIPS for America Act and Inflation Reduction Act last summer, focused on breaking U.S. reliance on China, and new rules against U.S. companies working with Chinese chipmakers...
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    Can I just say that 1883, the prequel to Yelllowstone, is excellent

    A simple old fashioned western. The male lead is handsome, white, dependable, honourable, and reliably homicidal in a likeable way. Villains are simply shot dead on sight with no faff about stupid Woke concepts like “justice”

    (Snip)

    I'd like to think that if I was on trial at the Old Bailey for a crime I didn't commit, I'd quite like the 'stupid' Woke concept of 'justice'. You know, instead of being summarily convicted without trial and/or shot.

    I bet you didn't think justice was 'woke' when you were up in front of the beak ... ;)
    I think Leon might be doing the irony there.
    A bit.

    Though given the popularity of this fantasy drama with the US right, it's hard to be sure.
    Yeah, his problem though is that he's always arguing and condemning wokeism, often IMO fallaciously. So it's hard to quite work out when he's being sarcastic or when his drug-addled brain causes him to just say something utterly dickwadish.

    In fact, have Leon and Musk ever been seen in the same room? ;)
    Both enjoy a good troll.
    Leon has a less clumsy approach to the technique most of the time.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    Nigelb said:

    The other, positive arm of the policy will also be consequential.
    And was wrongly critiqued by Republicans at the time as just pork barrel spending.

    Those initiatives come on the heels of Biden’s “promote” agenda — using the government to promote American competitiveness. That involved the approval of hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies for domestic manufacturing in the CHIPS for America Act and Inflation Reduction Act last summer, focused on breaking U.S. reliance on China, and new rules against U.S. companies working with Chinese chipmakers...

    Europe, Japan and S Korea are all also alive to the need for government actively to promote strategic technologies.
    With our obsession with finance, we seem to have set much of that aside. Perhaps permanently.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    Remarkable thread.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BotakozKassymb1/status/1607428796034039809
    Qazaqs know that the world would care little if russia attacked and genocided us, and we still stand with Ukraine. We know that we would share the fate of Chechens, Georgians, Syrians. We still stand with Ukraine....

    ...Crucially: Ukrainians stood for Muslim Chechens during their darkest hour, Ukrainians stand for Muslim Crimean Tatars. Ukraine is a colonized and genocided Europe that understands us...
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811
    Nigelb said:

    The other, positive arm of the policy will also be consequential.
    And was wrongly critiqued by Republicans at the time as just pork barrel spending.

    Those initiatives come on the heels of Biden’s “promote” agenda — using the government to promote American competitiveness. That involved the approval of hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies for domestic manufacturing in the CHIPS for America Act and Inflation Reduction Act last summer, focused on breaking U.S. reliance on China, and new rules against U.S. companies working with Chinese chipmakers...

    It is hard to be enthusiastic about Biden, but he and his team seem to get things done to a degree unusual in American politics.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811
    edited December 2022
    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

  • Options
    SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 621
    It was The Daily Mail that scuppered Penny. Perhap Dacre will get his peerage - only from a grateful Sir Keir.
    And the Tory membership didn't vote for Truss as she was more normal - they voted for her as she was a right wing dingbat.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,811
    SandraMc said:

    It was The Daily Mail that scuppered Penny. Perhap Dacre will get his peerage - only from a grateful Sir Keir.
    And the Tory membership didn't vote for Truss as she was more normal - they voted for her as she was a right wing dingbat.

    Penny scuppered herself by pretending that she hadn't said things that she had said. She would have been better sticking to her guns and pitching herself as a one nation, socially liberal Brexiteer. A small target audience perhaps, and vanishingly so in the Tory selectorate, but an honest one.
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    Even this time last year, there were dark clouds on the Conservative horizon- young Rishi had pencilled in tax rises for the run-up to the election, and you-know-what meant that economic growth was going to be pretty anemic for the foreseeable future.

    The war, Johnson's collapse, the Truss sugar rush and the lack of anyone more plausible than Sunak have just made things a hundred times worse for the blue team.

    And now they have to hang on for two more years on the off chance of a black swan turning up. The current gap is probably swingback-proof, but why should swingback happen this time anyway?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    edited December 2022
    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
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    Apols if already linked to, but a v. interesting piece from the New Yorker on the ground war in Ukraine, partly because of the rarity of embedded Anglophone journalists; as always a lot of the interest lies in the the technicalities and minutiae. There seems to be potential for friction between Ukr and International units, particularly as the latter can leave at any time and refuse to carry out a specific order/mission. Kiwis prominent, which may or may not please Gardenwalker.

    https://twitter.com/michaelluo/status/1607405106932191233?s=61&t=XbZ9OU41Ryae0wHqPbFlPw

  • Options
    The government has totally lost touch with modern Britain and is instead entirely focused on a strategy designed to appeal to home-owning retirees. By prioritising this demographic, the Tories can certainly prevent an overall Labour majority, but I am not sure it can keep them in power.
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    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 64,113
    edited December 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    It’s possible.
    So far they’re keeping it a close secret, though. For them to continue to do so up until the election would not be good for democracy.
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    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    It’s possible.
    So far they’re keeping it a close secret, though.
    Starmer has form on that front!

  • Options

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
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    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
    He either gets a slender majority, and daren't do anything, or he gets a humongous majority of first time labour voters liable to revert at the drop of a hat, and daren't do anything.
  • Options
    Russian magnate Pavel Antov dies after window fall in India
    A 'depressed' Russian sausage magnate who briefly criticised Russia’s Ukraine invasion has died after falling from a hotel window in India

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/27/russian-magnate-pavel-antov-dies-window-fall-india/ (£££)
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    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
    I think that the SNP will be part of why he will surprise on the upside. He’ll want to make it very hard for them to vote against a minority Labour government in Parliament. I’m expecting quite a bold approach to tax and redistribution, as well as a far closer relationship with the EU than is currently being eluded to.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,302

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
    On the contrary, his very caution on messaging pre election dramatically increases the odds that he will surprise on that front, especially as he won't look and sound radical even when he is.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,073
    If I were a Tory I think ai would be disappointed by Sunak’s performance so far.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,880

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think you're right. Behind Starmer's staid persona I reckon there's a redistributive radical lurking. However, I'm not sure that such economic radicalism lurks within Rachel Reeves, so she may need to be either persuaded or removed.
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    On topic, the answer is NO. Have we not learned the lesson hard enough in 2022 - anything is possible in politics. It is clear to almost all of us that the Tories are in the worst position they could have got themselves into. But the current alignment of literally every factor being against them is a recent creation and there is plenty of time to unalign these and things to change.

    There is one big factor in the Tories favour - they and their media shills have weaponised stupidity and ignorance. We can write a very very long list of all the things they have broken and the impacts of those on voters. And currently the voters are well aware and are ANGRY. But stupidity for votes has worked for the Tories before, so don't bet against a campaign to blame the mess on lady cocks or whatever and it starting to stick.

    Anything is possible.
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    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think you're right. Behind Starmer's staid persona I reckon there's a redistributive radical lurking. However, I'm not sure that such economic radicalism lurks within Rachel Reeves, so she may need to be either persuaded or removed.
    She knows how not to rock the horses.

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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,337
    The Tories are fcked, part 56342 in an ongoing series...

    Tory backbencher of the year, voted by @ConHome panel of party members, unprompted:
    Lee Anderson 54
    Boris Johnson 35
    Jacob Rees-Mogg 32
    Theresa May 29
    John Redwood 29
    Graham Brady 22
    https://conservativehome.com/2022/12/27/our-survey-lee-anderson-is-backbencher-of-the-year/
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 34,337
    “Rishi has yet to lay out that vision for this area — or for the country, if I’m honest.” A day with Stoke North Tory MP Jonathan Gullis in Tunstall. Labour confident in Red Wall. Many voters miss Johnson - but have serious reservations about Starmer
    https://www.ft.com/content/96bd5d17-1740-4f8c-bf57-d5da796d1b6c
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    Lee Anderson is voted backbencher of the year by Conhome readers

    https://conservativehome.com/2022/12/27/our-survey-lee-anderson-is-backbencher-of-the-year/
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    Why 2023 will be another ‘year of Boris Johnson’
    In the year ahead, the former prime minister is set to push his case for being the best-placed Tory to win the next election

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/12/27/boris-johnson-will-make-political-comeback-2023/ (£££)

    Otoh Boris's other spiritual home, The Spectator, might have split loyalties as its political editor, James Forsyth, and has recently signed on as his old chum the Prime Minister's political secretary.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Forsyth_(journalist)
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 25,285
    edited December 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    The Tories are fcked, part 56342 in an ongoing series...

    Tory backbencher of the year, voted by @ConHome panel of party members, unprompted:
    Lee Anderson 54
    Boris Johnson 35
    Jacob Rees-Mogg 32
    Theresa May 29
    John Redwood 29
    Graham Brady 22
    https://conservativehome.com/2022/12/27/our-survey-lee-anderson-is-backbencher-of-the-year/

    A disappointing result for Boris.
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    Scott_xP said:

    The Tories are fcked, part 56342 in an ongoing series...

    Tory backbencher of the year, voted by @ConHome panel of party members, unprompted:
    Lee Anderson 54
    Boris Johnson 35
    Jacob Rees-Mogg 32
    Theresa May 29
    John Redwood 29
    Graham Brady 22
    https://conservativehome.com/2022/12/27/our-survey-lee-anderson-is-backbencher-of-the-year/

    UKIP now owns the Conservative party!

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 93,302
    Scott_xP said:

    The Tories are fcked, part 56342 in an ongoing series...

    Tory backbencher of the year, voted by @ConHome panel of party members, unprompted:
    Lee Anderson 54
    Boris Johnson 35
    Jacob Rees-Mogg 32
    Theresa May 29
    John Redwood 29
    Graham Brady 22
    https://conservativehome.com/2022/12/27/our-survey-lee-anderson-is-backbencher-of-the-year/

    Johnson and Rees-Mogg is ridiculous and obviously just a sign of general liking, since neither have been backbenchers long enough to have an impact as such.

    Why 2023 will be another ‘year of Boris Johnson’
    In the year ahead, the former prime minister is set to push his case for being the best-placed Tory to win the next election

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/12/27/boris-johnson-will-make-political-comeback-2023/ (£££)

    It's just plain silly - switching out leaders again would work, really? He cannot possibly believe that, even if his premise they should not have gotten rid of him is correct.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048
    Mousehole!



    Look at the thickness of that wall. Built to withstand Cornish storms and autumn gales. And thick enough to hide smuggled brandy from the Revenue

    Built 200 years ago of proper Cornish granite and it will last another 200 years, possibly 2000, given the chance. And it is beautiful

    Why can’t we do this any more?
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,880

    Scott_xP said:

    The Tories are fcked, part 56342 in an ongoing series...

    Tory backbencher of the year, voted by @ConHome panel of party members, unprompted:
    Lee Anderson 54
    Boris Johnson 35
    Jacob Rees-Mogg 32
    Theresa May 29
    John Redwood 29
    Graham Brady 22
    https://conservativehome.com/2022/12/27/our-survey-lee-anderson-is-backbencher-of-the-year/

    A disappointing result for Boris.
    Not sure about that. He's come second even though he's never there. Imagine his ratings among Tories if he actually attended the HoC.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
    Starmer has already said he will continue New Labour's work and further wreck our constitution by replacing the House of Lords with a US style elected upper house.

    He has also said he wants the same Gender Recognition Bill as Sturgeon has in Scotland so you can self declare a sex change before even medical confirmation.

    Gordon Brown wants a new Federal UK.

    Plus there will no doubt be a wealth tax etc
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,670
    edited December 2022

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
    I think that the SNP will be part of why he will surprise on the upside. He’ll want to make it very hard for them to vote against a minority Labour government in Parliament. I’m expecting quite a bold approach to tax and redistribution, as well as a far closer relationship with the EU than is currently being eluded to.

    In that case those Redwallers are going to be dreadfully disappointed when Sir Keir doesn't follow through on electronic tagging of asylum seekers and naming & shaming of drug users; good God, there may even be backsliding on not going back to the EU, to the single market, to the customs union or freedom of movement!

    I do wonder if SKS has the chutzpah to pull off such a volte-face. With Tone such slipperiness was part of the package and he was good at it, perhaps not so endearing if your USP is stolid, boring dependability.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,295

    Apols if already linked to, but a v. interesting piece from the New Yorker on the ground war in Ukraine, partly because of the rarity of embedded Anglophone journalists; as always a lot of the interest lies in the the technicalities and minutiae. There seems to be potential for friction between Ukr and International units, particularly as the latter can leave at any time and refuse to carry out a specific order/mission. Kiwis prominent, which may or may not please Gardenwalker.

    https://twitter.com/michaelluo/status/1607405106932191233?s=61&t=XbZ9OU41Ryae0wHqPbFlPw

    3-10 years in clink for disobeying an order in the AFU. That must chafe the dick when the foreigners can check out for Ibiza any time they like.

    That article makes it sound like being at fucking Austerlitz.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Mousehole!



    Look at the thickness of that wall. Built to withstand Cornish storms and autumn gales. And thick enough to hide smuggled brandy from the Revenue

    Built 200 years ago of proper Cornish granite and it will last another 200 years, possibly 2000, given the chance. And it is beautiful

    Why can’t we do this any more?

    Our walls are that thick. And a few decades older...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,972
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
    Starmer has already said he will continue New Labour's work and further wreck our constitution by replacing the House of Lords with a US style elected upper house.

    He has also said he wants the same Gender Recognition Bill as Sturgeon has in Scotland so you can self declare a sex change before even medical confirmation.

    Gordon Brown wants a new Federal UK.

    Plus there will no doubt be a wealth tax etc
    Plus a new crackdown on fox hunting
    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1607344930317340674?s=20&t=7VoPFoArOjt8TN-qu8QStA
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Mousehole!



    Look at the thickness of that wall. Built to withstand Cornish storms and autumn gales. And thick enough to hide smuggled brandy from the Revenue

    Built 200 years ago of proper Cornish granite and it will last another 200 years, possibly 2000, given the chance. And it is beautiful

    Why can’t we do this any more?

    Cost

  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
    Starmer has already said he will continue New Labour's work and further wreck our constitution by replacing the House of Lords with a US style elected upper house.

    He has also said he wants the same Gender Recognition Bill as Sturgeon has in Scotland so you can self declare a sex change before even medical confirmation.

    Gordon Brown wants a new Federal UK.

    Plus there will no doubt be a wealth tax etc
    One of the recent political videos that went viral was a damning speech by this guy Welby who rightly eviscerated the government's shameful and immoral approach to migration.

    Or, the Archbishop of Canterbury, head of an established Church speaking from the House of Lords which he is a legislator in by right of his job.

    "wreck our constitution" you say? Its ALREADY wrecked. An anachronistic joke where all you need to get a seat for life as a legislator is to have the right job or friends or a large enough chequebook.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
    I think that the SNP will be part of why he will surprise on the upside. He’ll want to make it very hard for them to vote against a minority Labour government in Parliament. I’m expecting quite a bold approach to tax and redistribution, as well as a far closer relationship with the EU than is currently being eluded to.

    In that case those Redwallers are going to be dreadfully disappointed when Sir Keir doesn't follow through on electronic tagging of asylum seekers and naming & shaming of drug users; good God, there may even be backsliding on not going back to the EU, to the single market, to the customs union or freedom of movement!

    I do wonder if SKS has the chutzpah to pull off such a volte-face. With Tone such slipperiness was part of the package and he was good at it, perhaps not so endearing if your USP is stolid, boring dependability.
    I agree with @SouthamObserver

    Starmer is a proven liar (not necessarily a bad thing in a politician); he is lying about the EU. He will take us far back in as he can - the bigger the Labour majority the closer to Brussels we will go. He needs the EU to play ball tho (no certainty). He will need a new name for “Free Movement” - some tiny tweak that enables him to pretend it’s not Free Movement

    If he gets that we will go back in to the SM/CU in all but name and might well rejoin within the decade

    He can sell all this as dire necessity, due to the desperate times. Could work
  • Options

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    On topic, I think the Tories are toast and Sunak cannot revive them. A further change of PM would be a further farce. They are just going through the motions now before a long period of opposition.

    Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.

    None of them has articulated anything much more than a shuffling of the deckchairs, or a re-slicing of the pie, Starmer included.

    As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
    I think a Labour government - if we get one - will be a lot bolder and more radical than is currently being signalled. I don’t think there will be much choice.

    I think it’s fair to say that after an election we mostly don’t end up with the politicians that are presented to us before said election, but it seems brave to bet the house on Starmer surprising on the bold & radical upside.
    I think that the SNP will be part of why he will surprise on the upside. He’ll want to make it very hard for them to vote against a minority Labour government in Parliament. I’m expecting quite a bold approach to tax and redistribution, as well as a far closer relationship with the EU than is currently being eluded to.

    In that case those Redwallers are going to be dreadfully disappointed when Sir Keir doesn't follow through on electronic tagging of asylum seekers and naming & shaming of drug users; good God, there may even be backsliding on not going back to the EU, to the single market, to the customs union or freedom of movement!

    I do wonder if SKS has the chutzpah to pull off such a volte-face. With Tone such slipperiness was part of the package and he was good at it, perhaps not so endearing if your USP is stolid, boring dependability.
    If it works, there’ll be no problem. If, being the operative word.

  • Options

    Leon said:

    Mousehole!



    Look at the thickness of that wall. Built to withstand Cornish storms and autumn gales. And thick enough to hide smuggled brandy from the Revenue

    Built 200 years ago of proper Cornish granite and it will last another 200 years, possibly 2000, given the chance. And it is beautiful

    Why can’t we do this any more?

    Our walls are that thick. And a few decades older...
    What we don’t see, for obvious reasons, are all the cheaply put together homes built back then that surrounded the solidly constructed stuff.

  • Options
    Dura_Ace said:

    Apols if already linked to, but a v. interesting piece from the New Yorker on the ground war in Ukraine, partly because of the rarity of embedded Anglophone journalists; as always a lot of the interest lies in the the technicalities and minutiae. There seems to be potential for friction between Ukr and International units, particularly as the latter can leave at any time and refuse to carry out a specific order/mission. Kiwis prominent, which may or may not please Gardenwalker.

    https://twitter.com/michaelluo/status/1607405106932191233?s=61&t=XbZ9OU41Ryae0wHqPbFlPw

    3-10 years in clink for disobeying an order in the AFU. That must chafe the dick when the foreigners can check out for Ibiza any time they like.

    That article makes it sound like being at fucking Austerlitz.
    No disrespect to the Internationals who are putting their balls on the line repeatedly, but one wonders how much value they have in the old war fighting. I assume for Kiev it's mostly about the pr and making the West feel invested, similar to the original International Brigades.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 49,048

    Leon said:

    Mousehole!



    Look at the thickness of that wall. Built to withstand Cornish storms and autumn gales. And thick enough to hide smuggled brandy from the Revenue

    Built 200 years ago of proper Cornish granite and it will last another 200 years, possibly 2000, given the chance. And it is beautiful

    Why can’t we do this any more?

    Our walls are that thick. And a few decades older...
    What we don’t see, for obvious reasons, are all the cheaply put together homes built back then that surrounded the solidly constructed stuff.

    I’m in the seaside village of Mousehole, which is pretty much all like this. Solid four square granite houses for fishermen (and smugglers and wreckers). There are ancient photos on the walls of this place (the Ship Inn) showing the village in the 1880s etc. Even though the people are obviously poor and life is hard, there are no cheap nasty buildings to be seen. Quite striking
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