Are the Tories too far behind to recover? – politicalbetting.com
In an analysis in the I the prominent political scientist Professor John Curtice suggests that the Tories might be too far behind to stage a meaningful recovery to avoid being defeated at the next general election
18 months ago, we were talking about Starmer going if he lost B&S. Things change quickly.
I just can’t see a way back for the Tories. They need a total game changer and Sunak is not a game-changing politician
The only “hope” for them is a black swan - war, AI takeover, aliens - and black swans are not 10% chances
Labour will be the next government, very likely with a healthy majority. Starmer will also pick up some handy seats in Scotland
Happy Boxing Day PB
It's the highly likely squeeze in living standards over the next couple of years that is worrying for the Party. Of course it's China's and Putin's fault, not theirs, and Labour have absolutely no idea what to do anything about it (most of their plans would make it rather worse) but that won't cut much ice.
Also Sunak is not at all charismatic. Neither is Starmer, of course, but he's not 20 points behind.
Every time I use ChatGPT, I’m reminded of Steve Jobs describing it in this Playboy interview, Feb 1985"
Send him to Hungary.
Farage in any case has said he is happy with his current life, including attending the Boxing Day hunt today
Labour largest party after next election is 95%+ in my view.
Which in turn means that Labour will form the next government (95%+) - either some kind of coalition, supply or outright majority.
There is no hiding. If Sunak does miraculously dig us out of the economic and political hole the nation finds itself in, the Tories were still the ones who dug it in the first place.
We need fresh ideas, fresh faces and a democracy that punishes negligence.
Leon really does nail it on this occasion - the Tories need a game changer, and they don't have it.
She would be PM, probably quite good at it, and the Tories might have a small polling lead
Trouble is, that’s all there is. Quite articulate smoothness. He has zero common touch and not a lot of humour, no imagination or derring do, and he is way too divorced from working reality
The best thing I can say about Sunak is his 2 months in charge have been admirably free of drama, despite the occasional ridiculousness like trying to pretend Braverman took responsibility for her actions by being out of office for a couple of days.
Much as Brown as the Clunking Fist was people projecting onto his actions with that interpretation.
Bear in mind that these aren't his predictions for the next decade, they are his predictions for 2023.
Either they feared a rival, or they don't think she was up to much else - given she had decent showings in the leadership contests in terms of MPs support and doesn't appear that disliked, I'd suggest it is the latter.
But the others have set a fucking low bar. She would have been less catastrophic than Truss, and she’s much more approachable than Sunak (ie not a billionaire)
We will never know
A simple old fashioned western. The male lead is handsome, white, dependable, honourable, and reliably homicidal in a likeable way. Villains are simply shot dead on sight with no faff about stupid Woke concepts like “justice”
Animals are gutted. Germans are mocked. The women are beautiful and kneel as they serve food to the men. It’s great
If you mean five, fair enough.
If you mean ten, you clearly haven’t looked at the new boundaries.
If you mean fifteen, you’re into black swan territory
Even if we accept that 15 SLab seats might just happen, that’s only 25% of Scottish seats. Not very “handy” and certainly nowhere near a mandate to impose policies repeatedly rejected by the electorate.
I bet you didn't think justice was 'woke' when you were up in front of the beak ...
Football: well, Aston Villa lost. Will peruse the markets today (I think Ligue 1 resumes tomorrow).
Recovery, as in getting a higher percentage, is eminently possible. Winning outright is rather less likely and may well be impossible.
Though given the popularity of this fantasy drama with the US right, it's hard to be sure.
The extent of this guy's previously unexamined lies prior to his election is quite something.
In fact, have Leon and Musk ever been seen in the same room?
After decades of U.S. efforts to engage China with the prospect of greater development through trade, the era of cooperation is coming to a screeching halt.
The White House and Congress are quietly reshaping the American economic relationship with the world’s second-largest economic power, enacting a strategy to limit China’s technological development that breaks with decades of federal policy and represents the most aggressive American action yet to curtail Beijing’s economic and military rise.
The new federal rules, executive orders and pending legislation aimed at China’s high-tech sectors, which began this fall and will continue in 2023, are the culmination of years of debate spanning three administrations. Taken together, they represent an escalation of former President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade disputes against Beijing that could ultimately do more to slow Chinese technological and economic development — and divide the two economies — than anything the 45th president did while in office...
And was wrongly critiqued by Republicans at the time as just pork barrel spending.
Those initiatives come on the heels of Biden’s “promote” agenda — using the government to promote American competitiveness. That involved the approval of hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies for domestic manufacturing in the CHIPS for America Act and Inflation Reduction Act last summer, focused on breaking U.S. reliance on China, and new rules against U.S. companies working with Chinese chipmakers...
Leon has a less clumsy approach to the technique most of the time.
With our obsession with finance, we seem to have set much of that aside. Perhaps permanently.
Qazaqs know that the world would care little if russia attacked and genocided us, and we still stand with Ukraine. We know that we would share the fate of Chechens, Georgians, Syrians. We still stand with Ukraine....
...Crucially: Ukrainians stood for Muslim Chechens during their darkest hour, Ukrainians stand for Muslim Crimean Tatars. Ukraine is a colonized and genocided Europe that understands us...
Not that I am optomistic for a Starmer government, and I don't expect a landslide victory.
And the Tory membership didn't vote for Truss as she was more normal - they voted for her as she was a right wing dingbat.
The war, Johnson's collapse, the Truss sugar rush and the lack of anyone more plausible than Sunak have just made things a hundred times worse for the blue team.
And now they have to hang on for two more years on the off chance of a black swan turning up. The current gap is probably swingback-proof, but why should swingback happen this time anyway?
As you suggest in your last line, it would take a good optometrist to distinguish between them.
So far they’re keeping it a close secret, though. For them to continue to do so up until the election would not be good for democracy.
A 'depressed' Russian sausage magnate who briefly criticised Russia’s Ukraine invasion has died after falling from a hotel window in India
There is one big factor in the Tories favour - they and their media shills have weaponised stupidity and ignorance. We can write a very very long list of all the things they have broken and the impacts of those on voters. And currently the voters are well aware and are ANGRY. But stupidity for votes has worked for the Tories before, so don't bet against a campaign to blame the mess on lady cocks or whatever and it starting to stick.
Anything is possible.
Tory backbencher of the year, voted by @ConHome panel of party members, unprompted:
Lee Anderson 54
Boris Johnson 35
Jacob Rees-Mogg 32
Theresa May 29
John Redwood 29
Graham Brady 22
In the year ahead, the former prime minister is set to push his case for being the best-placed Tory to win the next election
Otoh Boris's other spiritual home, The Spectator, might have split loyalties as its political editor, James Forsyth, and has recently signed on as his old chum the Prime Minister's political secretary.
Look at the thickness of that wall. Built to withstand Cornish storms and autumn gales. And thick enough to hide smuggled brandy from the Revenue
Built 200 years ago of proper Cornish granite and it will last another 200 years, possibly 2000, given the chance. And it is beautiful
Why can’t we do this any more?
He has also said he wants the same Gender Recognition Bill as Sturgeon has in Scotland so you can self declare a sex change before even medical confirmation.
Gordon Brown wants a new Federal UK.
Plus there will no doubt be a wealth tax etc
I do wonder if SKS has the chutzpah to pull off such a volte-face. With Tone such slipperiness was part of the package and he was good at it, perhaps not so endearing if your USP is stolid, boring dependability.
That article makes it sound like being at fucking Austerlitz.
Or, the Archbishop of Canterbury, head of an established Church speaking from the House of Lords which he is a legislator in by right of his job.
"wreck our constitution" you say? Its ALREADY wrecked. An anachronistic joke where all you need to get a seat for life as a legislator is to have the right job or friends or a large enough chequebook.
Starmer is a proven liar (not necessarily a bad thing in a politician); he is lying about the EU. He will take us far back in as he can - the bigger the Labour majority the closer to Brussels we will go. He needs the EU to play ball tho (no certainty). He will need a new name for “Free Movement” - some tiny tweak that enables him to pretend it’s not Free Movement
If he gets that we will go back in to the SM/CU in all but name and might well rejoin within the decade
He can sell all this as dire necessity, due to the desperate times. Could work