Labour has been edging back in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

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Labour has been edging back in Scotland – politicalbetting.com

I have long held the view that Labour’s chances of ever securing another Commons majority were completely smashed at the 2015 General Election when they saw their position in Scotland totally obliterated.

Read the full story here

OnlyLivingBoy

First? Unlike Labour in Scotland, unfortunately.

OnlyLivingBoy

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

IanB2

Second, like the article subject?

IanB2

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

DecrepiterJohnL

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

DecrepiterJohnL

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

moonshine

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

DecrepiterJohnL

Facebook owner pays $725m to settle Cambridge Analytica case
...
Cambridge Analytica, a London-based political consulting firm, allegedly used Facebook in an attempt to influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election and Britain’s European Union referendum...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/facebook-owner-pays-725m-to-settle-cambridge-analytica-case-3lrcvn7sw (£££)

52:48

Dura_Ace

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

PB tory cocks are going to be fully fucking BRICKED UP if Rishi goes full culture wars on this. I don't know if helps at an election. ScoMo had a whole week devoted to transphobe stuff in his election campaign and he got his shit pushed in.

DougSeal

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

Did you read the article? The Telegraph is “revealing” something that SKS said to PinkNews last year.

StuartDickson

No doubt whatsoever that SLab are on the uptick in Scotland, but primarily at the expense of the Tories and SLD.

If the next GE were going to be fought on the current boundaries, then 10+ seats would be do-able. However, it is a near-certainty that it will be fought on the new boundaries, which are profoundly unhelpful to both SLab and SLDs. Even so, SLab ought to get 5 fairly easily, but 10+ looks too big an ask.

Starmer has proven that he neither understands nor cares about Scotland. It has the merit of being honest.

OnlyLivingBoy

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

malcolmg

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

buckets full more like, they just have them all on benefits.

Foxy

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

SLAB needs the SNP to fall apart as a party into a fratricidal mess. Not impossible as there are obviously some internal strains and fatigue from being in government, but not looking particularly likely.

I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.

malcolmg

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

yes encourage more people to go on benefits rather than saving for their own retirement. Clowns on here never worry about the T ory crooks and tax dodgers who siphon off vast amounts.

OnlyLivingBoy

I guess one way to think about this is, would you rather be Labour with its current UK seat total and 1 Scottish MP or 56 Scottish MPs? I would guess the former.

Foxy

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

It is a legitimate point, and the converse is also true. Cons have a lot of seats, but that makes for a lot of fronts to defend.

Going all culture war on Trans doesn't butter many parsnips.

DavidL

As a Unionist I very much hope to see Labour gains north of the border. If I were in a seat where Labour had a chance I would vote for them in a heartbeat. Some tribal loyalties trump others.

I would expect a handful of gains in Scotland, particularly if the Unionist vote is focused by Nicola's quasi referendum, one of the reasons her MPs are less keen on this idea than she is. Perhaps 5-10. But the SNP hegemony will persist, at least for now.

Casino_Royale

I've always expected this.

Casino_Royale

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

JSpring

Off the top of my head, Labour have won a majority of seats in England in 1945, 1950, 1966, October 1974, 1997, 2001 and 2005.

Foxy

Interesting article in The Atlantic, about the US Real Eastate market and its adverse effects on society, but many points applicable here too:

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/12/homeownership-real-estate-investment-renting/672511/?utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

"This is a key, uncomfortable point: Home values, which purportedly built the middle class, are predicated not on sweat equity or hard work but on luck. Home values are mostly about the value of land, not the structure itself, and the value of the land is largely driven by labor markets. Is someone who bought a home in San Francisco in 1978 smarter or more hardworking than someone trying to do so 50 years later? More important, is this kind of random luck, which compounds over time, the best way to organize society? The obvious answer to both of these questions is no.

And for people for whom homeownership has paid off the most? Those living in cities or suburbs of thriving labor markets? For them, their home’s value is directly tied to the scarcity of housing for other people. This system by its nature pits incumbents against newcomers."

Carnyx

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Rather more to the point. SKS can 't appeal to the average, oftne pro-indy and pro-EU, Labour voter in a Scottish constituency and to the legendary Red Wall, etc., south of the border at the same time. Which is the dilemma which hasn't been properly addressed in this morning's discussion, I rather think.

Stuartinromford

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

SLAB needs the SNP to fall apart as a party into a fratricidal mess. Not impossible as there are obviously some internal strains and fatigue from being in government, but not looking particularly likely.

I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.

How much is known about how Self ID works in practice? Does the Scottish Plan match what other places have done, and how has it worked?

(Electorally, it might shore up a wobbly bit of the Conservative wall, but I can't see it being a winning issue. Partly, I don't see that happening in the Scottish figures above. Partly, the Section 28 precedent. Partly, I'm sure the age cleavage on the issue is the same as for other issues. But mostly because it will be the economy.)

Carnyx

Dura_Ace said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

PB tory cocks are going to be fully fucking BRICKED UP if Rishi goes full culture wars on this. I don't know if helps at an election. ScoMo had a whole week devoted to transphobe stuff in his election campaign and he got his shit pushed in.

Also, those figures of voter support for the GRA in Scotland posted yesterday remind us that in the real world a lot of people are not transphobes, quite the opposite. Antitranswoke campaigning in Scotland will shore up the Tory vote but the latter is so shrunken that all that will do is help keep Labour and the LDs down, not to mention Reform.

ydoethur

JSpring said:

Off the top of my head, Labour have won a majority of seats in England in 1945, 1950, 1966, October 1974, 1997, 2001 and 2005.

Don’t think they did in October 1974. I make it 255 Labour, 253 Con and 7 Lib. Largest part but not a majority.

Edit - I also make 1950 252 Con to 251 Labour.

Carnyx

OnlyLivingBoy said:

I guess one way to think about this is, would you rather be Labour with its current UK seat total and 1 Scottish MP or 56 Scottish MPs? I would guess the former.

INdeed, especially as appealing to the Labour voter in Scotland is not the same thing as being electorally successful elsewhere. SKS has made his priorities clear.

Nigelb

With YouTube Deal, the NFL Cements Itself as the Most Powerful Force in Entertainment
The league chose YouTube as its Sunday Ticket partner in part because the service aims to be “much more broadly available."
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/digital/youtube-nfl-sunday-ticket-1235286848/

moonshine

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

Every article Mike has written in weeks is about the motivation gap in voting intentions. Every little love bomb Starmer drops like this shuffle a few more blues off their hands into the booths.

Foxy

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

SLAB needs the SNP to fall apart as a party into a fratricidal mess. Not impossible as there are obviously some internal strains and fatigue from being in government, but not looking particularly likely.

I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.

How much is known about how Self ID works in practice? Does the Scottish Plan match what other places have done, and how has it worked?

(Electorally, it might shore up a wobbly bit of the Conservative wall, but I can't see it being a winning issue. Partly, I don't see that happening in the Scottish figures above. Partly, the Section 28 precedent. Partly, I'm sure the age cleavage on the issue is the same as for other issues. But mostly because it will be the economy.)

I think the country with the longest experience is Argentina, where it seems both the benefits and horrors have been greatly exaggerated.

https://www.openlynews.com/i/?id=21757767-4909-4844-922f-41903ff042f8

Trans people there still seem highly marginalised, but also there is no recordable rise in the incidence of gender based violence or sex crimes.

ydoethur

I shouldn't laugh, but I'm sure it was deliberate:

US winter storm: Icy blast hits 200 million Americans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64083129

Temperatures in Elk Park, Montana, dropped to -50F (-45C), while the town of Hell, Michigan, has frozen over.

state_go_away

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

yes typical of this weak government that there proposed solution is some absurd "midlife MOT" waffle and not kicking people off long term sick who have not got anything wrong with them that means they cannot work at least at something

dixiedean

ydoethur said:

I shouldn't laugh, but I'm sure it was deliberate:

US winter storm: Icy blast hits 200 million Americans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64083129

Temperatures in Elk Park, Montana, dropped to -50F (-45C), while the town of Hell, Michigan, has frozen over.

"Much of the rest of the country (Canada) was under extreme cold."
In December? Whatever next?

Heathener

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

Every article Mike has written in weeks is about the motivation gap in voting intentions. Every little love bomb Starmer drops like this shuffle a few more blues off their hands into the booths.

You wish

noneoftheabove

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

As a Unionist I very much hope to see Labour gains north of the border. If I were in a seat where Labour had a chance I would vote for them in a heartbeat. Some tribal loyalties trump others.

I would expect a handful of gains in Scotland, particularly if the Unionist vote is focused by Nicola's quasi referendum, one of the reasons her MPs are less keen on this idea than she is. Perhaps 5-10. But the SNP hegemony will persist, at least for now.

David, they will replace the Tory and Lib Dumb losers , straight swap of democracy denying troughing duffers.

Carnyx

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

Doesn't make sense (or maybe it is just me). If the early retirees return then other people lose their jobs through competition, and have to be supported on benefits etc. At least the early retirees are paying their way at present.

state_go_away

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

most early retirees in their 50s are public sector who have just about got the very generous pensions that stopped for new starters around 2000.

Heathener

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland?

Yes because it fails to listen to the mood of this nation right now. The visceral anger is quite incredible. I've never known anything like it.

Get out of your bubbles and LISTEN !!!

More objectively and empirically, the last 10 national opinion polls have the tories on a mean 25.7%. 5 of the 10 polls have them at or below 25%. And the latest poll has Labour double that on 51%.

100 tory seats. They 'might' just get to 150. And that's it. Labour don't 'need' Scottish MPs under these circumstances.

Anyone who seriously thinks that the tories are not in for a bloodbath is just not listening to the people.

malcolmg

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

What a bellend , lets steal money from people who have worked hard.

state_go_away

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

It is a legitimate point, and the converse is also true. Cons have a lot of seats, but that makes for a lot of fronts to defend.

Going all culture war on Trans doesn't butter many parsnips.

but on the other hand it does not lose any voters they have already so might as well as it will get votes from blue labour

CarlottaVance

Would this convicted male sex offender - who doesn’t have gender dysphoria but legally identifies as female and has since been arrested after allegations of exposure in a female changing room - have been granted a GRC in Scotland? V probably I think.


https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1606558865277026305

HYUFD

Certainly if Sunak can cut Labour's lead to under 10% then it will be very difficult for Starmer to get a majority without gains in Scotland.

60 LD MPs in 2010 for example ensured a hung parliament despite a 7% Conservative lead overall and over 50 SNP MPs in 2015 meant Cameron only scraped a narrow majority despite getting even a slightly larger popular vote lead than in 2010

noneoftheabove

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

Doesn't make sense (or maybe it is just me). If the early retirees return then other people lose their jobs through competition, and have to be supported on benefits etc. At least the early retirees are paying their way at present.

We have over 100k vacancies in the NHS alone. Society has become so divided that a significant minority can work for 30-35 years of a 90 year life whereas poorer people might work for 55 years of a 75 year old life. Yet somehow the former group need more tax breaks.....

malcolmg

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

SLAB needs the SNP to fall apart as a party into a fratricidal mess. Not impossible as there are obviously some internal strains and fatigue from being in government, but not looking particularly likely.

I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.

How much is known about how Self ID works in practice? Does the Scottish Plan match what other places have done, and how has it worked?

(Electorally, it might shore up a wobbly bit of the Conservative wall, but I can't see it being a winning issue. Partly, I don't see that happening in the Scottish figures above. Partly, the Section 28 precedent. Partly, I'm sure the age cleavage on the issue is the same as for other issues. But mostly because it will be the economy.)

I expect it to hit the SNP for certain. Any sensible woman at least should vote elsewhere.

NickPalmer

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

I wouldn't worry. I'm probably closer to it than you, as I'm a CLP chair and also pretty woke myself, but I'm not detecting much interest in it at any level of the party. Obviously there are a few who are really into it, but the only tangible manifestation is a requirement (to have half the constituency officers to be female. Even that is often not met as there don't happen to be enough female volunteers in some places, to which the party basically says "Oh well, what can you do?".

Really Labour is about the cost of living these days, plus more affordable housing and quite a bit of green energy stuff. I detect little interest in some of the the themes important to me (animal welfare, refugees, foreign aid) - the party is perfectly polite about them and full of nebulous good intentions, but you can tell they're not really paying attention. I don't say that with pleasure, but I acknowledge and within reason respect the single-minded attention being given to winning and then being seen as a success on the ecoomic issues.

HYUFD

ydoethur said:

I shouldn't laugh, but I'm sure it was deliberate:

US winter storm: Icy blast hits 200 million Americans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64083129

Temperatures in Elk Park, Montana, dropped to -50F (-45C), while the town of Hell, Michigan, has frozen over.

Indeed almost all of Canada and the US in Arctic temperatures at the moment with heavy snow except Miami and southern Florida

jamesdoyle

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

I shouldn't laugh, but I'm sure it was deliberate:

US winter storm: Icy blast hits 200 million Americans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64083129

Temperatures in Elk Park, Montana, dropped to -50F (-45C), while the town of Hell, Michigan, has frozen over.

"Much of the rest of the country (Canada) was under extreme cold."
In December? Whatever next?

Extreme by Canadian winter standards, not UK winter standards.
I've got friends who live in Alaska who say they've never seen lows like this, or such rapid drops in temperature.

CD13

Dr Fox,

I think you're right about the parsnip-buttering, but it's a hostage to fortune. Although it won't directly affect many people, it has the potential to kick off if someone 'famous' is affected in a bad way.

Sixteen-year-olds make bad decisions, but as long as they can't procure sex change procedures on the NHS, on the basis of it, little harm is done. However it only takes one youthful Saville who takes advantage to make all bets off.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sturgeon tried to play to the gallery by making it a bullying English government throwing its weight around. A bit risky if she does.

malcolmg

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

I wouldn't worry. I'm probably closer to it than you, as I'm a CLP chair and also pretty woke myself, but I'm not detecting much interest in it at any level of the party. Obviously there are a few who are really into it, but the only tangible manifestation is a requirement (to have half the constituency officers to be female. Even that is often not met as there don't happen to be enough female volunteers in some places, to which the party basically says "Oh well, what can you do?".

Really Labour is about the cost of living these days, plus more affordable housing and quite a bit of green energy stuff. I detect little interest in some of the the themes important to me (animal welfare, refugees, foreign aid) - the party is perfectly polite about them and full of nebulous good intentions, but you can tell they're not really paying attention. I don't say that with pleasure, but I acknowledge and within reason respect the single-minded attention being given to winning and then being seen as a success on the ecoomic issues.

Labour are just for focus group crap nowadays. They are just wannabe Tories.

HYUFD

Dura_Ace said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

PB tory cocks are going to be fully fucking BRICKED UP if Rishi goes full culture wars on this. I don't know if helps at an election. ScoMo had a whole week devoted to transphobe stuff in his election campaign and he got his shit pushed in.

Albanese though neutered Morrison's attack by refusing to back allowing trans men into womens' bathrooms, certainly until full surgery.

Starmer like Sturgeon would do though. Indeed apart from Trudeau few world leaders have been as pro trans as Sturgeon has and Starmer seems to be, even Mdme Macron has concerns over gender pronouns

https://twitter.com/amy_sargeant_/status/1506836012970164225?t=xYP-AiNR4pZh72zFwjIV2g&s=19

https://unherd.com/thepost/brigitte-macron-says-non-merci-to-gender-neutral-pronouns/

noneoftheabove

malcolmg said:

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

What a bellend , lets steal money from people who have worked hard.

I've worked hard and am in the group that will be able to retire early if I want to. I also know people who have worked harder than me, in much more physically demanding jobs, who will have to work into their seventies.

The link between hard work and ability to retire is there to an extent, but probably less important than if you were lucky enough to be born to well off parents.

moonshine

Heathener said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

Every article Mike has written in weeks is about the motivation gap in voting intentions. Every little love bomb Starmer drops like this shuffle a few more blues off their hands into the booths.

You wish

Goodness me you’re so boringly tribal. I just want good governance and we haven’t had much of that recently for sure.

Stuartinromford

malcolmg said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

SLAB needs the SNP to fall apart as a party into a fratricidal mess. Not impossible as there are obviously some internal strains and fatigue from being in government, but not looking particularly likely.

I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.

How much is known about how Self ID works in practice? Does the Scottish Plan match what other places have done, and how has it worked?

(Electorally, it might shore up a wobbly bit of the Conservative wall, but I can't see it being a winning issue. Partly, I don't see that happening in the Scottish figures above. Partly, the Section 28 precedent. Partly, I'm sure the age cleavage on the issue is the same as for other issues. But mostly because it will be the economy.)

I expect it to hit the SNP for certain. Any sensible woman at least should vote elsewhere.

Hasn't the debate been rumbling for a while, with not much sign of a measurable switch from SNP to Cons/Alba?

ydoethur

HYUFD said:

Certainly if Sunak can cut Labour's lead to under 10% then it will be very difficult for Starmer to get a majority without gains in Scotland.

60 LD MPs in 2010 for example ensured a hung parliament despite a 7% Conservative lead overall and over 50 SNP MPs in 2015 meant Cameron only scraped a narrow majority despite getting even a slightly larger popular vote lead than in 2010

I think the issue is not that Starmer *can't* win a majority without Scotland, just that it's very hard to.

Of the 125 seats needed to give Labour a majority, on UNS 19 are held by the SNP (plus Arfon, which is Plaid and will almost certainly stay Plaid). So we immediately see a UNS of around 10% won't deliver a majority without the SNP going backwards.

In fact, if you eliminate the SNP held seats from consideration and also the three Plaid seats (which Labour isn't really in contention for) on current boundaries the official target is Worthing West, a swing of a staggering 13.5%, and where Labour actually came third in 1997.

That's a UNS, on current boundaries. Both are of course false assumptions but they do underline the scale of Starmer's challenge.

A more plausible scenario - gaining about 80 seats in England to form a minority government - still requires a swing of 7.6%. Interestingly, one of the seats in that range is Boris Johnson's, along with Penistone and Stocksbridge, Worthing East and Shoreham and Ashfield. Four very different seats that have to be at least in play.

Carnyx

noneoftheabove said:

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

Doesn't make sense (or maybe it is just me). If the early retirees return then other people lose their jobs through competition, and have to be supported on benefits etc. At least the early retirees are paying their way at present.

We have over 100k vacancies in the NHS alone. Society has become so divided that a significant minority can work for 30-35 years of a 90 year life whereas poorer people might work for 55 years of a 75 year old life. Yet somehow the former group need more tax breaks.....

The reasons for that are, as has been well rehearsed, poor pay and conditions in the NHS, as well as lack of training and Brexit. Can't see that pretending to fix the motor by fiddling with the rubber strips on the back of the Capri help here.

Carnyx

Stuartinromford said:

malcolmg said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

SLAB needs the SNP to fall apart as a party into a fratricidal mess. Not impossible as there are obviously some internal strains and fatigue from being in government, but not looking particularly likely.

I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.

How much is known about how Self ID works in practice? Does the Scottish Plan match what other places have done, and how has it worked?

(Electorally, it might shore up a wobbly bit of the Conservative wall, but I can't see it being a winning issue. Partly, I don't see that happening in the Scottish figures above. Partly, the Section 28 precedent. Partly, I'm sure the age cleavage on the issue is the same as for other issues. But mostly because it will be the economy.)

I expect it to hit the SNP for certain. Any sensible woman at least should vote elsewhere.

Hasn't the debate been rumbling for a while, with not much sign of a measurable switch from SNP to Cons/Alba?

Also see the poll reported on PB yesterday, after weeks and weeks of trans-stuff on the wokefinding Tory media.

Stuartinromford

noneoftheabove said:

malcolmg said:

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

What a bellend , lets steal money from people who have worked hard.

I've worked hard and am in the group that will be able to retire early if I want to. I also know people who have worked harder than me, in much more physically demanding jobs, who will have to work into their seventies.

The link between hard work and ability to retire is there to an extent, but probably less important than if you were lucky enough to be born to well off parents.

Or having got a first mortgage when it was relatively easy to get a deposit together from earned income, profited from the long house price boom and cashed in by downsizing?

dixiedean

jamesdoyle said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

I shouldn't laugh, but I'm sure it was deliberate:

US winter storm: Icy blast hits 200 million Americans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64083129

Temperatures in Elk Park, Montana, dropped to -50F (-45C), while the town of Hell, Michigan, has frozen over.

"Much of the rest of the country (Canada) was under extreme cold."
In December? Whatever next?

Extreme by Canadian winter standards, not UK winter standards.
I've got friends who live in Alaska who say they've never seen lows like this, or such rapid drops in temperature.

25 below in Winnipeg and 20 under in Edmonton are far from extreme in December.
The storms are.
The extremes are in the places not usually used to them.

SouthamObserver

Labour may win more than one seat in Scotland at the next GE. I don’t think it’ll be anything meaningful, though. The interesting thing about the Scottish polling is that, as things stand, the nationalist parties may not get the 50% of the vote that Nicola Sturgeon has specified will create a mandate for independence. That’s happening at a time when support for independence is on the rise. Why the discrepancy?

CarlottaVance

Leader writer for the Observer:

(Surely…..surely!…. @UKLabour has got more sense than to go down the same road as the SNP rather than going for an appropriate compromise that creates a form of legal self-ID for gender identity while keeping sex a separate concept in law to protect women’s rights.)

https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1606567432209956864

ydoethur

jamesdoyle said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

I shouldn't laugh, but I'm sure it was deliberate:

US winter storm: Icy blast hits 200 million Americans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64083129

Temperatures in Elk Park, Montana, dropped to -50F (-45C), while the town of Hell, Michigan, has frozen over.

"Much of the rest of the country (Canada) was under extreme cold."
In December? Whatever next?

Extreme by Canadian winter standards, not UK winter standards.
I've got friends who live in Alaska who say they've never seen lows like this, or such rapid drops in temperature.

-45C is not normal outside the polar regions. Anything but.

Carnyx

CD13 said:

Dr Fox,

I think you're right about the parsnip-buttering, but it's a hostage to fortune. Although it won't directly affect many people, it has the potential to kick off if someone 'famous' is affected in a bad way.

Sixteen-year-olds make bad decisions, but as long as they can't procure sex change procedures on the NHS, on the basis of it, little harm is done. However it only takes one youthful Saville who takes advantage to make all bets off.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sturgeon tried to play to the gallery by making it a bullying English government throwing its weight around. A bit risky if she does.

Not English. UKG.

You mean the UKG doesn't? It's been doing that for the last decade and more. Anjd it has been much worse under recentl PMs (jury still out on Mr Sunak, though his latest threats don't look good given it would be interference in a legally devolved area, on which the Tories have by strong implication confirmed Holyrood powers given their recent revisions of the Scotland Act).

HYUFD

Carnyx said:

Dura_Ace said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

PB tory cocks are going to be fully fucking BRICKED UP if Rishi goes full culture wars on this. I don't know if helps at an election. ScoMo had a whole week devoted to transphobe stuff in his election campaign and he got his shit pushed in.

Also, those figures of voter support for the GRA in Scotland posted yesterday remind us that in the real world a lot of people are not transphobes, quite the opposite. Antitranswoke campaigning in Scotland will shore up the Tory vote but the latter is so shrunken that all that will do is help keep Labour and the LDs down, not to mention Reform.

Eh? 68% of Scots excluding don't knows think Sturgeon's change to the law on gender recognition threatens women only spaces.

Even MalcG recognises that

https://wingsoverscotland.com/why-do-snp-voters-hate-women/

HYUFD

dixiedean said:

jamesdoyle said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

I shouldn't laugh, but I'm sure it was deliberate:

US winter storm: Icy blast hits 200 million Americans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64083129

Temperatures in Elk Park, Montana, dropped to -50F (-45C), while the town of Hell, Michigan, has frozen over.

"Much of the rest of the country (Canada) was under extreme cold."
In December? Whatever next?

Extreme by Canadian winter standards, not UK winter standards.
I've got friends who live in Alaska who say they've never seen lows like this, or such rapid drops in temperature.

25 below in Winnipeg and 20 under in Edmonton are far from extreme in December.
The storms are.

Sub zero temperatures even in Texas though is

SouthamObserver

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

I wouldn't worry. I'm probably closer to it than you, as I'm a CLP chair and also pretty woke myself, but I'm not detecting much interest in it at any level of the party. Obviously there are a few who are really into it, but the only tangible manifestation is a requirement (to have half the constituency officers to be female. Even that is often not met as there don't happen to be enough female volunteers in some places, to which the party basically says "Oh well, what can you do?".

Really Labour is about the cost of living these days, plus more affordable housing and quite a bit of green energy stuff. I detect little interest in some of the the themes important to me (animal welfare, refugees, foreign aid) - the party is perfectly polite about them and full of nebulous good intentions, but you can tell they're not really paying attention. I don't say that with pleasure, but I acknowledge and within reason respect the single-minded attention being given to winning and then being seen as a success on the ecoomic issues.

My guess is that the Tories will seek to weaponise the trans debate next year. It’s been pretty clearly signalled. Given anyone with half a political brain knows it’s going to happen, it would be an epic fail for Labour to be caught out over it.

Malmesbury

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

If you are in a shit job, if you take your shit pension + state pension + other benefits you are still worse off than not working full time minimum wage…

So, is this another feature of the benefit system paying people to only work a limited number of hours?

dixiedean

HYUFD said:

dixiedean said:

jamesdoyle said:

dixiedean said:

ydoethur said:

I shouldn't laugh, but I'm sure it was deliberate:

US winter storm: Icy blast hits 200 million Americans
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-64083129

Temperatures in Elk Park, Montana, dropped to -50F (-45C), while the town of Hell, Michigan, has frozen over.

"Much of the rest of the country (Canada) was under extreme cold."
In December? Whatever next?

Extreme by Canadian winter standards, not UK winter standards.
I've got friends who live in Alaska who say they've never seen lows like this, or such rapid drops in temperature.

25 below in Winnipeg and 20 under in Edmonton are far from extreme in December.
The storms are.

Sub zero temperatures even in Texas though is

Indeed. But Central Canada is only about 10 degrees colder than the December average.
Because it's bloody cold there every winter. And early spring.

CarlottaVance

Play the Wheel of Blame with @NicolaSturgeon, Head of the Church of Perpetual Grievance...........

#MerryChristmas & thanks for watching our films.

https://twitter.com/Mercurius_Scot/status/1606568322090389505

noneoftheabove

Stuartinromford said:

noneoftheabove said:

malcolmg said:

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

What a bellend , lets steal money from people who have worked hard.

I've worked hard and am in the group that will be able to retire early if I want to. I also know people who have worked harder than me, in much more physically demanding jobs, who will have to work into their seventies.

The link between hard work and ability to retire is there to an extent, but probably less important than if you were lucky enough to be born to well off parents.

Or having got a first mortgage when it was relatively easy to get a deposit together from earned income, profited from the long house price boom and cashed in by downsizing?

Indeed and that group in particular, if you give them more wealth, will often tend to buy up houses to rent out, blocking those working almost twice as many years from ever owning their home.

Never going to be a popular opinion on pb.com which skews heavily to the well off, able to retire early, and in the second half of their life, but the last thing the country needs is to further increase the gap between rich and poor.

kle4

DavidL said:

As a Unionist I very much hope to see Labour gains north of the border. If I were in a seat where Labour had a chance I would vote for them in a heartbeat. Some tribal loyalties trump others.

I would expect a handful of gains in Scotland, particularly if the Unionist vote is focused by Nicola's quasi referendum, one of the reasons her MPs are less keen on this idea than she is. Perhaps 5-10. But the SNP hegemony will persist, at least for now.

Looks to me at the moment that the overall number of unionist held seats is likely to go down, but Labour will have a 2017 level amount.

state_go_away

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

I wouldn't worry. I'm probably closer to it than you, as I'm a CLP chair and also pretty woke myself, but I'm not detecting much interest in it at any level of the party. Obviously there are a few who are really into it, but the only tangible manifestation is a requirement (to have half the constituency officers to be female. Even that is often not met as there don't happen to be enough female volunteers in some places, to which the party basically says "Oh well, what can you do?".

Really Labour is about the cost of living these days, plus more affordable housing and quite a bit of green energy stuff. I detect little interest in some of the the themes important to me (animal welfare, refugees, foreign aid) - the party is perfectly polite about them and full of nebulous good intentions, but you can tell they're not really paying attention. I don't say that with pleasure, but I acknowledge and within reason respect the single-minded attention being given to winning and then being seen as a success on the ecoomic issues.

My guess is that the Tories will seek to weaponise the trans debate next year. It’s been pretty clearly signalled. Given anyone with half a political brain knows it’s going to happen, it would be an epic fail for Labour to be caught out over it.

its a free roll of the dice so why not - at the moment the tories are just as big state , anti business (windfall taxes) and woke as labour - need something to distinguish them from labour in the eye of voters

pm215

dixiedean said:

Indeed. But Central Canada is only about 10 degrees colder than the December average.
Because it's bloody cold there every winter. And early spring.

Mmm, apparently Quebec City can get over 30C in summer and below -30C in winter. I do wonder whether the first European settlers got a nasty shock when their first winter arrived...

Malmesbury

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

Doesn't make sense (or maybe it is just me). If the early retirees return then other people lose their jobs through competition, and have to be supported on benefits etc. At least the early retirees are paying their way at present.

We have over 100k vacancies in the NHS alone. Society has become so divided that a significant minority can work for 30-35 years of a 90 year life whereas poorer people might work for 55 years of a 75 year old life. Yet somehow the former group need more tax breaks.....

The reasons for that are, as has been well rehearsed, poor pay and conditions in the NHS, as well as lack of training and Brexit. Can't see that pretending to fix the motor by fiddling with the rubber strips on the back of the Capri help here.

It’s more than that - https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/chart/number-of-people-per-gp-nurse-and-medical-or-dental-staff-since-1949-1

We have a record low ratio of patients to staff, more nurses, record numbers working for the NHS.

And yet….

kle4

Stuartinromford said:

malcolmg said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

SLAB needs the SNP to fall apart as a party into a fratricidal mess. Not impossible as there are obviously some internal strains and fatigue from being in government, but not looking particularly likely.

I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.

How much is known about how Self ID works in practice? Does the Scottish Plan match what other places have done, and how has it worked?

(Electorally, it might shore up a wobbly bit of the Conservative wall, but I can't see it being a winning issue. Partly, I don't see that happening in the Scottish figures above. Partly, the Section 28 precedent. Partly, I'm sure the age cleavage on the issue is the same as for other issues. But mostly because it will be the economy.)

I expect it to hit the SNP for certain. Any sensible woman at least should vote elsewhere.

Hasn't the debate been rumbling for a while, with not much sign of a measurable switch from SNP to Cons/Alba?

Sometimes there can be delayed reaction as pressure builds up over an issue. I don't see that here. There are people who dislike it in the SNP voter ranks, but it seems like they can live with it as other matters are more important to them.

malcolmg

noneoftheabove said:

malcolmg said:

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

What a bellend , lets steal money from people who have worked hard.

I've worked hard and am in the group that will be able to retire early if I want to. I also know people who have worked harder than me, in much more physically demanding jobs, who will have to work into their seventies.

The link between hard work and ability to retire is there to an extent, but probably less important than if you were lucky enough to be born to well off parents.

The vast majority of hard working people who have managed to better themselves a little were not born with a silver spoon. They should be chasing the hooray Henry tax evaders , Tory crooks , etc

kle4

That a majority is even being seriously contemplated is a sign of how well Labour are doing, its not just Tory mid term blues. It suggests gaining power at least, even if a majority is very hard, is very likely.

state_go_away

Its nice that we are all worried about the weather in the US but not sure why ?

ydoethur

state_go_away said:

Its nice that we are all worried about the weather in the US but not sure why ?

I think I would like to know why unseasonally warm weather has been followed by a period of cold weather that while not unseasonal has definitely been at the chillier end of normal.

However, I suspect I already know the answer.

kjh

Good morning all. Not sure how much time I will have for PB today with lots of cooking and prep for tomorrow so I will take this opportunity to wish you all a Happy Christmas. Try not to argue with relatives (leave that for here) and try to eat and drink just short of too much and I hope Santa brings you what you want.

And finally a special thank you for all those kind comments and the typical dry wit from PB when I broke my legs over 10 months ago now. No matter what others may say, you are a good crowd really.

PS Legs, near as damn it, all fixed now.

ydoethur

kle4 said:

That a majority is even being seriously contemplated is a sign of how well Labour are doing, its not just Tory mid term blues. It suggests gaining power at least, even if a majority is very hard, is very likely.

I think, without wishing to sound like Heathener on all points, it's more it's very difficult to see how the Tories undo the damage they have done to limit their losses to under 40 seats.

It's not impossible but it requires:

1) Sorting out public services without raising taxes. That requires either huge economic growth or a debt default.

2) Getting the cost of living under control, and here we're talking about not just a reduction in inflation but actual deflation. That requires China to get its act together, the Russian/Ukraine war to end quickly with a normalising of Russia's relations with the WEst and Ukraine being quickly rebuilt so it can send grain out again, and no further instability in the Middle East.

3) Getting some sanity back in the party itself after Covid, so lose (sic) cannons like Rees-Mogg, Dorries, Johnson and Fabricant are not the faces people see when they think of it.

4) Getting good newspaper headlines on immigration, which also means that Suella Braverman has to be replaced by somebody competent and sane.

5) For some kind of solution to be found to the ongoing party and wider political issues in Scotland and Wales so they don't get nearly wiped out there.

6) Resolving the disastrous mis-deal that Johnson signed, so trade with the EU is ungummed and Northern Ireland is not being used as a political football pissing off the DUP (who are the only plausible supporters the Tories have left in the Commons).

To put it bluntly, it's hard to see *any* of those happening. Put them all together and it's a very narrow line to tread - about as narrow as a piece of cotton across a chasm with hungry crocodiles underneath.

Malmesbury

ydoethur said:

state_go_away said:

Its nice that we are all worried about the weather in the US but not sure why ?

I think I would like to know why unseasonally warm weather has been followed by a period of cold weather that while not unseasonal has definitely been at the chillier end of normal.

However, I suspect I already know the answer.

You’ve realised that because you believe that Global Climate is affecting the planet…

… this means you must be a Woke Trans Illegal Immigrant Alien AI dedicated to polluting Our Precious Bodily Essence?

ydoethur

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

state_go_away said:

Its nice that we are all worried about the weather in the US but not sure why ?

I think I would like to know why unseasonally warm weather has been followed by a period of cold weather that while not unseasonal has definitely been at the chillier end of normal.

However, I suspect I already know the answer.

You’ve realised that because you believe that Global Climate is affecting the planet…

… this means you must be a Woke Trans Illegal Immigrant Alien AI dedicated to polluting Our Precious Bodily Essence?

Bollocks to that.

*sips glass of rainwater indignantly*

state_go_away

i always do a few long term football bets at this festive break
To me , Forest look good odds in various ways
25/1 to win EFL cup (as good a quarter final draw as they could have got bar charlton)
100/1 to win FA Cup (Done this Each way)
33/1 to be best midlands team in Premiership (Aston villa are favs for this Lol)

Beyond that fancy Queen PArk for Scottish champ at 8/1 , Elgin at 14/1 for Scottish second and Plymouth for league one at 15/2.

Aston Villa to be relegated at 14/1 goes with the Forest best midlands bet above .

PSG to win the champions league at 9/1 is value imho and Newcatle at 28/1(!) to be top northern team in premiership as to be value!

St Mirren to win Scottish premiership without Celtic and Rangers is great value at 22/1

Finally on football I backed Scarborough for the national league northern section (just cos its my fav seaside town)

oh and started on backing labour majority at 10/11 and will top up as we get nearer

dixiedean

pm215 said:

dixiedean said:

Indeed. But Central Canada is only about 10 degrees colder than the December average.
Because it's bloody cold there every winter. And early spring.

Mmm, apparently Quebec City can get over 30C in summer and below -30C in winter. I do wonder whether the first European settlers got a nasty shock when their first winter arrived...

Try Winnipeg. Record high 47+. Record low below -47.

Malmesbury

state_go_away said:

Its nice that we are all worried about the weather in the US but not sure why ?

For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.


Climate is global. The evidence is that it is getting more extreme. Globally.

Have you installed air conditioning run from solar panels, yet?

No_Offence_Alan

CarlottaVance said:

Would this convicted male sex offender - who doesn’t have gender dysphoria but legally identifies as female and has since been arrested after allegations of exposure in a female changing room - have been granted a GRC in Scotland? V probably I think.


https://twitter.com/soniasodha/status/1606558865277026305

No they wouldn't - they are bloody American!

RochdalePioneers

Heathener said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland?

Yes because it fails to listen to the mood of this nation right now. The visceral anger is quite incredible. I've never known anything like it.

Get out of your bubbles and LISTEN !!!

More objectively and empirically, the last 10 national opinion polls have the tories on a mean 25.7%. 5 of the 10 polls have them at or below 25%. And the latest poll has Labour double that on 51%.

100 tory seats. They 'might' just get to 150. And that's it. Labour don't 'need' Scottish MPs under these circumstances.

Anyone who seriously thinks that the tories are not in for a bloodbath is just not listening to the people.

Nothing works. Most services we need are on strike because nurses are having to rely on food banks at their own hospital. Normals are not supporting the government because unlike Tory MPs they know such a thing is deeply immoral.

But the Tories insist they will win because they can scare people enough about invading foreigners or the threat of ladycock abusers. Its delusional. But the reason why I am not as confident as you about the result is simple - too many voters have become too simple. The powers that be have encouraged ignorance and stupidity. So Tory messages of immorality and stupidity may still resonate with people who have become weapons grade stupid and callous. People who read The Sun and liked the Clarkson column.

Roger

SKS would be well advised to come to an accomodation with Nicola before the election

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

I wouldn't worry. I'm probably closer to it than you, as I'm a CLP chair and also pretty woke myself, but I'm not detecting much interest in it at any level of the party. Obviously there are a few who are really into it, but the only tangible manifestation is a requirement (to have half the constituency officers to be female. Even that is often not met as there don't happen to be enough female volunteers in some places, to which the party basically says "Oh well, what can you do?".

Really Labour is about the cost of living these days, plus more affordable housing and quite a bit of green energy stuff. I detect little interest in some of the the themes important to me (animal welfare, refugees, foreign aid) - the party is perfectly polite about them and full of nebulous good intentions, but you can tell they're not really paying attention. I don't say that with pleasure, but I acknowledge and within reason respect the single-minded attention being given to winning and then being seen as a success on the ecoomic issues.

My guess is that the Tories will seek to weaponise the trans debate next year. It’s been pretty clearly signalled. Given anyone with half a political brain knows it’s going to happen, it would be an epic fail for Labour to be caught out over it.

They could no more win a battle by weaponising the trans debate than Prince Andrew could rehabilitate himself by taking in a couple of Ukrainians. Johnson and co have tarnished the brand so badly that anything touched by a Tory will assume an odour.

They are now unrescuable. The dead parrot Party

Foxy

Malmesbury said:

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

Carnyx said:

noneoftheabove said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

The government should look at tax relief on private pension contributions, which is limited once any pension has been taken. This is, presumably, to stop sharks recycling pension contributions through salary for repeated uplifts on the same money, but effectively reduces salaries of "honest" returning retirees.

If these people can all afford to retire early, and much of the rest of the country can't afford to heat their homes or eat a meal, then the incentive for the early retirees to work more can be achieved by taxing them, and their assets more, not taxing them less, so that they have to work a bit longer to stay comfortable.

Doesn't make sense (or maybe it is just me). If the early retirees return then other people lose their jobs through competition, and have to be supported on benefits etc. At least the early retirees are paying their way at present.

We have over 100k vacancies in the NHS alone. Society has become so divided that a significant minority can work for 30-35 years of a 90 year life whereas poorer people might work for 55 years of a 75 year old life. Yet somehow the former group need more tax breaks.....

The reasons for that are, as has been well rehearsed, poor pay and conditions in the NHS, as well as lack of training and Brexit. Can't see that pretending to fix the motor by fiddling with the rubber strips on the back of the Capri help here.

It’s more than that - https://www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/chart/number-of-people-per-gp-nurse-and-medical-or-dental-staff-since-1949-1

We have a record low ratio of patients to staff, more nurses, record numbers working for the NHS.

And yet….

Basically explained by this map:

https://twitter.com/feedthedrummer/status/1605654450818863104?t=GxAi1nBbEdOYBmsJSeLHeg&s=19

Malmesbury

ydoethur said:

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

state_go_away said:

Its nice that we are all worried about the weather in the US but not sure why ?

I think I would like to know why unseasonally warm weather has been followed by a period of cold weather that while not unseasonal has definitely been at the chillier end of normal.

However, I suspect I already know the answer.

You’ve realised that because you believe that Global Climate is affecting the planet…

… this means you must be a Woke Trans Illegal Immigrant Alien AI dedicated to polluting Our Precious Bodily Essence?

Bollocks to that.

*sips glass of rainwater indignantly*

Indeed. OPE.

Tres

pm215 said:

dixiedean said:

Indeed. But Central Canada is only about 10 degrees colder than the December average.
Because it's bloody cold there every winter. And early spring.

Mmm, apparently Quebec City can get over 30C in summer and below -30C in winter. I do wonder whether the first European settlers got a nasty shock when their first winter arrived...

TresBOTv0.1 says
'In the summer of 1541, after arriving on his third and final voyage, French explorer Jacques Cartier established Fort Charlesbourg Royal and a settlement of 400 people.[2] It consisted of an upper fort, and lower fort located near the confluence of Rivière du Cap Rouge at the north shore of the Saint Lawrence River. The upper fort, at an elevation of 40 metres (130 ft), offered a strategic defensive position, while the lower fort provided a potential anchorage for ships. The two forts had three towers. Charlesbourg Royal was named after Charles II, Duke of Orleans, third son of King Francis I of France.

During the first winter, 35 of Cartier's men perished.[3] Fort Charlesbourg Royal was abandoned in September 1543 due to the harsh weather, scurvy, and attacks from neighbouring Iroquoians of Stadacona and other villages.'

TresBOTv0.1 knows the Prime Minister is Sunak.

Casino_Royale

Heathener said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland?

Yes because it fails to listen to the mood of this nation right now. The visceral anger is quite incredible. I've never known anything like it.

Get out of your bubbles and LISTEN !!!

More objectively and empirically, the last 10 national opinion polls have the tories on a mean 25.7%. 5 of the 10 polls have them at or below 25%. And the latest poll has Labour double that on 51%.

100 tory seats. They 'might' just get to 150. And that's it. Labour don't 'need' Scottish MPs under these circumstances.

Anyone who seriously thinks that the tories are not in for a bloodbath is just not listening to the people.

Ah, this again.

Are you going to take me up on my bet or not?

150 Tory seats or fewer at 3/2 at the next GE. You win, I pay you £150. I win, you pay me £100. @rcs1000 to record the bet.

Deal?

Foxy

Malmesbury said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Workers over 50 encouraged to end early retirement
...
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64083802

So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.

If you are in a shit job, if you take your shit pension + state pension + other benefits you are still worse off than not working full time minimum wage…

So, is this another feature of the benefit system paying people to only work a limited number of hours?

Isn't it just the rather obvious one that we have tremendously long and increasing backlogs of chronic disease on NHS waiting lists? Effectively we have an emergencies only service, and even that is looking rather shaky.

Maybe people really are chronically sick and unfit for work.

Sunil_Prasannan

Roger said:

SKS would be well advised to come to an accomodation with Nicola before the election

SouthamObserver said:

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

I wouldn't worry. I'm probably closer to it than you, as I'm a CLP chair and also pretty woke myself, but I'm not detecting much interest in it at any level of the party. Obviously there are a few who are really into it, but the only tangible manifestation is a requirement (to have half the constituency officers to be female. Even that is often not met as there don't happen to be enough female volunteers in some places, to which the party basically says "Oh well, what can you do?".

Really Labour is about the cost of living these days, plus more affordable housing and quite a bit of green energy stuff. I detect little interest in some of the the themes important to me (animal welfare, refugees, foreign aid) - the party is perfectly polite about them and full of nebulous good intentions, but you can tell they're not really paying attention. I don't say that with pleasure, but I acknowledge and within reason respect the single-minded attention being given to winning and then being seen as a success on the ecoomic issues.

My guess is that the Tories will seek to weaponise the trans debate next year. It’s been pretty clearly signalled. Given anyone with half a political brain knows it’s going to happen, it would be an epic fail for Labour to be caught out over it.

They could no more win a battle by weaponising the trans debate than Prince Andrew could rehabilitate himself by taking in a couple of Ukrainians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Andrew:_The_Musical

No_Offence_Alan

dixiedean said:

pm215 said:

dixiedean said:

Indeed. But Central Canada is only about 10 degrees colder than the December average.
Because it's bloody cold there every winter. And early spring.

Mmm, apparently Quebec City can get over 30C in summer and below -30C in winter. I do wonder whether the first European settlers got a nasty shock when their first winter arrived...

Try Winnipeg. Record high 47+. Record low below -47.

I worked in Oslo for a couple of years. The only people I met who didn't mind the Norwegian winter weather were Canadians.

StuartDickson

Stuartinromford said:

malcolmg said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

SLAB needs the SNP to fall apart as a party into a fratricidal mess. Not impossible as there are obviously some internal strains and fatigue from being in government, but not looking particularly likely.

I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.

How much is known about how Self ID works in practice? Does the Scottish Plan match what other places have done, and how has it worked?

(Electorally, it might shore up a wobbly bit of the Conservative wall, but I can't see it being a winning issue. Partly, I don't see that happening in the Scottish figures above. Partly, the Section 28 precedent. Partly, I'm sure the age cleavage on the issue is the same as for other issues. But mostly because it will be the economy.)

I expect it to hit the SNP for certain. Any sensible woman at least should vote elsewhere.

Hasn't the debate been rumbling for a while, with not much sign of a measurable switch from SNP to Cons/Alba?

Six years.

The switch (such as it was) to Alba occurred long ago. And about two-thirds of that small band will hold their noses and vote SNP come polling day anyway.

Casino_Royale

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

I wouldn't worry. I'm probably closer to it than you, as I'm a CLP chair and also pretty woke myself, but I'm not detecting much interest in it at any level of the party. Obviously there are a few who are really into it, but the only tangible manifestation is a requirement (to have half the constituency officers to be female. Even that is often not met as there don't happen to be enough female volunteers in some places, to which the party basically says "Oh well, what can you do?".

Really Labour is about the cost of living these days, plus more affordable housing and quite a bit of green energy stuff. I detect little interest in some of the the themes important to me (animal welfare, refugees, foreign aid) - the party is perfectly polite about them and full of nebulous good intentions, but you can tell they're not really paying attention. I don't say that with pleasure, but I acknowledge and within reason respect the single-minded attention being given to winning and then being seen as a success on the ecoomic issues.

I think there's a lot of interest in it from the activists, we see some of their passion on here, and it regularly shows up in polling of the members and supporters in particular. Labour MPs themselves love it and support it. Outside Rosie Duffield and Tony Blair I don't see any checks on it.

A Conservative government means venal, self-interested behaviour, money-grubbing corporate fraud, enthusiastic factional infighting, fairly high tax, impotent resistance to wokery, and ineffective measures on migration.

A Labour government means authoritarianism on civil liberties, hectoring, nannying, overregulation, wokery, pandering to special interest groups, personal fraud, more migration and much more tax.

state_go_away

Casino_Royale said:

NickPalmer said:

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/23/keir-starmer-pro-trans-laws-needed-across-uk/

Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….

I doubt it (simply because I suspect most people aren't interested and don't care, except for any downstream effects, and care far more about the NHS, the economy, migration etc) but I do expect any Labour government to turn the Wokery up to 11, which will give every institution and company right across the country to do the same - and make life insufferable.

I wouldn't worry. I'm probably closer to it than you, as I'm a CLP chair and also pretty woke myself, but I'm not detecting much interest in it at any level of the party. Obviously there are a few who are really into it, but the only tangible manifestation is a requirement (to have half the constituency officers to be female. Even that is often not met as there don't happen to be enough female volunteers in some places, to which the party basically says "Oh well, what can you do?".

Really Labour is about the cost of living these days, plus more affordable housing and quite a bit of green energy stuff. I detect little interest in some of the the themes important to me (animal welfare, refugees, foreign aid) - the party is perfectly polite about them and full of nebulous good intentions, but you can tell they're not really paying attention. I don't say that with pleasure, but I acknowledge and within reason respect the single-minded attention being given to winning and then being seen as a success on the ecoomic issues.

I think there's a lot of interest in it from the activists, we see some of their passion on here, and it regularly shows up in polling of the members and supporters in particular. Labour MPs themselves love it and support it. Outside Rosie Duffield and Tony Blair I don't see any checks on it.

A Conservative government means venal, self-interested behaviour, money-grubbing corporate fraud, enthusiastic factional infighting, fairly high tax, impotent resistance to wokery, and ineffective measures on migration.

A Labour government means authoritarianism on civil liberties, hectoring, nannying, overregulation, wokery, pandering to special interest groups, personal fraud, more migration and much more tax.

vote reform!

StuartDickson

Carnyx said:

Stuartinromford said:

malcolmg said:

Stuartinromford said:

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Surely it's an exaggeration to say that Labour's chances of winning a majority have been obliterated by the loss od seats in Scotland? Labour would have won a majority in 1997 and 2001 with no Scottish seats, but not in 2005. And thinking in terms of potential Scottish seat gains, there is far more upside potential now than in 1997. Clearly the bar for a majority has been raised significantly, but it is far from out of reach, and the potential for Scotland to contribute to Labour seat gains is bigger than before.

A game attempt at arguing that a seat you hold isn’t worth as much as the same seat that you dont!

Maybe. Sometimes people do some double counting though when it comes to Labour's challenge - talking about how few seats they have as well as how many they have to gain. It's always worth remembering that having few seats creates the potential for gaining more, especially if some of those gains might be easier than others. I'm not trying to minimise the challenge they face.

SLAB needs the SNP to fall apart as a party into a fratricidal mess. Not impossible as there are obviously some internal strains and fatigue from being in government, but not looking particularly likely.

I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.

How much is known about how Self ID works in practice? Does the Scottish Plan match what other places have done, and how has it worked?

(Electorally, it might shore up a wobbly bit of the Conservative wall, but I can't see it being a winning issue. Partly, I don't see that happening in the Scottish figures above. Partly, the Section 28 precedent. Partly, I'm sure the age cleavage on the issue is the same as for other issues. But mostly because it will be the economy.)

I expect it to hit the SNP for certain. Any sensible woman at least should vote elsewhere.

Hasn't the debate been rumbling for a while, with not much sign of a measurable switch from SNP to Cons/Alba?

Also see the poll reported on PB yesterday, after weeks and weeks of trans-stuff on the wokefinding Tory media.

Here’s the one. A clear shift in SNP voting intention, but not in the direction the PB Herd foresaw:

London
Lab 46%
Con 20%
LD 11%
Grn 10%
Ref 10%

Rest of South
Lab 41%
Con 24%
LD 14%
Grn 10%
Ref 9%

Midlands and Wales
Lab 49%
Con 25%
Ref 8%
LD 8%
Grn 4%
PC 2%

North
Lab 56%
Con 23%
Ref 8%
LD 5%
Grn 4%

Scotland
SNP 55%
Lab 24%
Con 7%
Ref 4%
LD 4%

(PeoplePolling/GB News; December 21, 2022; 1,148)