Labour has been edging back in Scotland – politicalbetting.com
I have long held the view that Labour’s chances of ever securing another Commons majority were completely smashed at the 2015 General Election when they saw their position in Scotland totally obliterated.
nearly 2.5 million people are not looking for jobs because of long-term sickness - adding to labour shortages
So take our low unemployment figures with a pinch of salt.
Tory Swingback in 3,2,1….
Cambridge Analytica, a London-based political consulting firm, allegedly used Facebook in an attempt to influence the outcome of the 2016 US presidential election and Britain’s European Union referendum...
If the next GE were going to be fought on the current boundaries, then 10+ seats would be do-able. However, it is a near-certainty that it will be fought on the new boundaries, which are profoundly unhelpful to both SLab and SLDs. Even so, SLab ought to get 5 fairly easily, but 10+ looks too big an ask.
Starmer has proven that he neither understands nor cares about Scotland. It has the merit of being honest.
I cannot see the gender Bill doing it. The countries that have already moved to Self ID haven't noticeably found it to be an issue in reality.
Going all culture war on Trans doesn't butter many parsnips.
I would expect a handful of gains in Scotland, particularly if the Unionist vote is focused by Nicola's quasi referendum, one of the reasons her MPs are less keen on this idea than she is. Perhaps 5-10. But the SNP hegemony will persist, at least for now.
"This is a key, uncomfortable point: Home values, which purportedly built the middle class, are predicated not on sweat equity or hard work but on luck. Home values are mostly about the value of land, not the structure itself, and the value of the land is largely driven by labor markets. Is someone who bought a home in San Francisco in 1978 smarter or more hardworking than someone trying to do so 50 years later? More important, is this kind of random luck, which compounds over time, the best way to organize society? The obvious answer to both of these questions is no.
And for people for whom homeownership has paid off the most? Those living in cities or suburbs of thriving labor markets? For them, their home’s value is directly tied to the scarcity of housing for other people. This system by its nature pits incumbents against newcomers."
(Electorally, it might shore up a wobbly bit of the Conservative wall, but I can't see it being a winning issue. Partly, I don't see that happening in the Scottish figures above. Partly, the Section 28 precedent. Partly, I'm sure the age cleavage on the issue is the same as for other issues. But mostly because it will be the economy.)
Edit - I also make 1950 252 Con to 251 Labour.
The league chose YouTube as its Sunday Ticket partner in part because the service aims to be “much more broadly available."
Trans people there still seem highly marginalised, but also there is no recordable rise in the incidence of gender based violence or sex crimes.
US winter storm: Icy blast hits 200 million Americans
Temperatures in Elk Park, Montana, dropped to -50F (-45C), while the town of Hell, Michigan, has frozen over.
In December? Whatever next?
Get out of your bubbles and LISTEN !!!
More objectively and empirically, the last 10 national opinion polls have the tories on a mean 25.7%. 5 of the 10 polls have them at or below 25%. And the latest poll has Labour double that on 51%.
100 tory seats. They 'might' just get to 150. And that's it. Labour don't 'need' Scottish MPs under these circumstances.
Anyone who seriously thinks that the tories are not in for a bloodbath is just not listening to the people.
60 LD MPs in 2010 for example ensured a hung parliament despite a 7% Conservative lead overall and over 50 SNP MPs in 2015 meant Cameron only scraped a narrow majority despite getting even a slightly larger popular vote lead than in 2010
Really Labour is about the cost of living these days, plus more affordable housing and quite a bit of green energy stuff. I detect little interest in some of the the themes important to me (animal welfare, refugees, foreign aid) - the party is perfectly polite about them and full of nebulous good intentions, but you can tell they're not really paying attention. I don't say that with pleasure, but I acknowledge and within reason respect the single-minded attention being given to winning and then being seen as a success on the ecoomic issues.
I've got friends who live in Alaska who say they've never seen lows like this, or such rapid drops in temperature.
I think you're right about the parsnip-buttering, but it's a hostage to fortune. Although it won't directly affect many people, it has the potential to kick off if someone 'famous' is affected in a bad way.
Sixteen-year-olds make bad decisions, but as long as they can't procure sex change procedures on the NHS, on the basis of it, little harm is done. However it only takes one youthful Saville who takes advantage to make all bets off.
I wouldn't be surprised if Sturgeon tried to play to the gallery by making it a bullying English government throwing its weight around. A bit risky if she does.
Starmer like Sturgeon would do though. Indeed apart from Trudeau few world leaders have been as pro trans as Sturgeon has and Starmer seems to be, even Mdme Macron has concerns over gender pronouns
The link between hard work and ability to retire is there to an extent, but probably less important than if you were lucky enough to be born to well off parents.
Of the 125 seats needed to give Labour a majority, on UNS 19 are held by the SNP (plus Arfon, which is Plaid and will almost certainly stay Plaid). So we immediately see a UNS of around 10% won't deliver a majority without the SNP going backwards.
In fact, if you eliminate the SNP held seats from consideration and also the three Plaid seats (which Labour isn't really in contention for) on current boundaries the official target is Worthing West, a swing of a staggering 13.5%, and where Labour actually came third in 1997.
That's a UNS, on current boundaries. Both are of course false assumptions but they do underline the scale of Starmer's challenge.
A more plausible scenario - gaining about 80 seats in England to form a minority government - still requires a swing of 7.6%. Interestingly, one of the seats in that range is Boris Johnson's, along with Penistone and Stocksbridge, Worthing East and Shoreham and Ashfield. Four very different seats that have to be at least in play.
The storms are.
The extremes are in the places not usually used to them.
(Surely…..surely!…. @UKLabour has got more sense than to go down the same road as the SNP rather than going for an appropriate compromise that creates a form of legal self-ID for gender identity while keeping sex a separate concept in law to protect women’s rights.)
You mean the UKG doesn't? It's been doing that for the last decade and more. Anjd it has been much worse under recentl PMs (jury still out on Mr Sunak, though his latest threats don't look good given it would be interference in a legally devolved area, on which the Tories have by strong implication confirmed Holyrood powers given their recent revisions of the Scotland Act).
Even MalcG recognises that
So, is this another feature of the benefit system paying people to only work a limited number of hours?
Because it's bloody cold there every winter. And early spring.
#MerryChristmas & thanks for watching our films.
Never going to be a popular opinion on pb.com which skews heavily to the well off, able to retire early, and in the second half of their life, but the last thing the country needs is to further increase the gap between rich and poor.
We have a record low ratio of patients to staff, more nurses, record numbers working for the NHS.
However, I suspect I already know the answer.
And finally a special thank you for all those kind comments and the typical dry wit from PB when I broke my legs over 10 months ago now. No matter what others may say, you are a good crowd really.
PS Legs, near as damn it, all fixed now.
It's not impossible but it requires:
1) Sorting out public services without raising taxes. That requires either huge economic growth or a debt default.
2) Getting the cost of living under control, and here we're talking about not just a reduction in inflation but actual deflation. That requires China to get its act together, the Russian/Ukraine war to end quickly with a normalising of Russia's relations with the WEst and Ukraine being quickly rebuilt so it can send grain out again, and no further instability in the Middle East.
3) Getting some sanity back in the party itself after Covid, so lose (sic) cannons like Rees-Mogg, Dorries, Johnson and Fabricant are not the faces people see when they think of it.
4) Getting good newspaper headlines on immigration, which also means that Suella Braverman has to be replaced by somebody competent and sane.
5) For some kind of solution to be found to the ongoing party and wider political issues in Scotland and Wales so they don't get nearly wiped out there.
6) Resolving the disastrous mis-deal that Johnson signed, so trade with the EU is ungummed and Northern Ireland is not being used as a political football pissing off the DUP (who are the only plausible supporters the Tories have left in the Commons).
To put it bluntly, it's hard to see *any* of those happening. Put them all together and it's a very narrow line to tread - about as narrow as a piece of cotton across a chasm with hungry crocodiles underneath.
… this means you must be a Woke Trans Illegal Immigrant Alien AI dedicated to polluting Our Precious Bodily Essence?
*sips glass of rainwater indignantly*
To me , Forest look good odds in various ways
25/1 to win EFL cup (as good a quarter final draw as they could have got bar charlton)
100/1 to win FA Cup (Done this Each way)
33/1 to be best midlands team in Premiership (Aston villa are favs for this Lol)
Beyond that fancy Queen PArk for Scottish champ at 8/1 , Elgin at 14/1 for Scottish second and Plymouth for league one at 15/2.
Aston Villa to be relegated at 14/1 goes with the Forest best midlands bet above .
PSG to win the champions league at 9/1 is value imho and Newcatle at 28/1(!) to be top northern team in premiership as to be value!
St Mirren to win Scottish premiership without Celtic and Rangers is great value at 22/1
Finally on football I backed Scarborough for the national league northern section (just cos its my fav seaside town)
oh and started on backing labour majority at 10/11 and will top up as we get nearer
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.
Climate is global. The evidence is that it is getting more extreme. Globally.
Have you installed air conditioning run from solar panels, yet?
But the Tories insist they will win because they can scare people enough about invading foreigners or the threat of ladycock abusers. Its delusional. But the reason why I am not as confident as you about the result is simple - too many voters have become too simple. The powers that be have encouraged ignorance and stupidity. So Tory messages of immorality and stupidity may still resonate with people who have become weapons grade stupid and callous. People who read The Sun and liked the Clarkson column.
They are now unrescuable. The dead parrot Party
'In the summer of 1541, after arriving on his third and final voyage, French explorer Jacques Cartier established Fort Charlesbourg Royal and a settlement of 400 people. It consisted of an upper fort, and lower fort located near the confluence of Rivière du Cap Rouge at the north shore of the Saint Lawrence River. The upper fort, at an elevation of 40 metres (130 ft), offered a strategic defensive position, while the lower fort provided a potential anchorage for ships. The two forts had three towers. Charlesbourg Royal was named after Charles II, Duke of Orleans, third son of King Francis I of France.
During the first winter, 35 of Cartier's men perished. Fort Charlesbourg Royal was abandoned in September 1543 due to the harsh weather, scurvy, and attacks from neighbouring Iroquoians of Stadacona and other villages.'
TresBOTv0.1 knows the Prime Minister is Sunak.
Are you going to take me up on my bet or not?
150 Tory seats or fewer at 3/2 at the next GE. You win, I pay you £150. I win, you pay me £100. @rcs1000 to record the bet.
Maybe people really are chronically sick and unfit for work.
The switch (such as it was) to Alba occurred long ago. And about two-thirds of that small band will hold their noses and vote SNP come polling day anyway.
A Conservative government means venal, self-interested behaviour, money-grubbing corporate fraud, enthusiastic factional infighting, fairly high tax, impotent resistance to wokery, and ineffective measures on migration.
A Labour government means authoritarianism on civil liberties, hectoring, nannying, overregulation, wokery, pandering to special interest groups, personal fraud, more migration and much more tax.
Rest of South
Midlands and Wales
(PeoplePolling/GB News; December 21, 2022; 1,148)