The big problem the Tories have with going to war with nurses is that their electoral base is more reliant on the NHS than any other demographic. Health workers aren’t an enemy for the over-60s. ...
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
Is that not at least an improvement on (a) complete mendacious buffoon acting liar and (b) hopeless incompetent work experience girl?
Yes, but it’s still depressing. Sunak is a total non-entity.
Sunak is probably our most entity PM since Blair. Even if he is no Thatcher or Churchill either
It’s still early days, but on the evidence so far he is sub-Major and possibly sub-Callaghan, both of whom had long records of public service careers before becoming PM.
"Non-entity", "comes across as mid level Accenture consultant"... Sounds as though you are biased towards associating good prime-ministerial skills with extraversion and being "alpha". But Johnson was an absolute sh*tclown. TMay was a waste of space, Cameron may have tried but didn't have much of a clue either, and Truss should never have been allowed near the job. Sunak is probably halfway between TMay and Cameron in level of competence. That isn't saying much, but he's ahead of loud-voice alpha boy pants-on-fire Johnson for sure.
You have a somewhat strange and limited idea of what 'competence' for the role entails. Britain sits in an uncomfortable place; overseas we have America riding roughshod over us, Europe hostile, at home we have a bloated and incompetent civil service, incapable of doing its basic tasks and often openly rebellious in the face of Ministerial authority, an energy crisis causing rampant inflation, a migrant crisis, and half a dozen other existential threats I've probably forgotten about. A supine accountant with a man crush on Macron is manifestly not up to the job. With Boris and Truss, there was always the possibility that something bonkers and brilliant would happen. Sunak is managing us down the plughole, with no hope of improvement.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
Yesterday, a circular email went round at work saying that one department had a large number of ring binders surplus to requirement if anyone wanted them. And, according to the sender, 'if you're lucky, you might get one of the ones that has some slippery fish still in it.'
For those of you who don't know the term (in this context, I know there are others, oo-er), slippery fish is a term for the transparent plastic pockets with holes punched down the side, into which you can insert documents and then put the pocket into the binder. I've known the term 'slippery fish' for ages, but it got me wondering how it originated. So I looked it up...
And according to the internet, it's a Sussex-only term. Now, I was sceptical - this is the internet we're talking about, after all. So I asked around among family and friends - 'what do you call those things?' and secondly, 'have you ever heard of the term "slippery fish"?'
And amazingly, non-Sussex people have never heard of this, while Sussex people have mostly, although not universally, heard them called nothing else. My brother asked me to remind him what drugs I am on.
So although I am none the wiser about when and how the term came about, I am irrationally pleased to find that a regional slang term for a universally-known item can still exist - and be completely unknown outside its region.
I've never heard of that, when I was growing up it was a "slippy bit". Nowadays it is a "plastic wallet".
Round here they're called 'polypockets.'
I have heard the phrase slippery fish, and sometimes use it, and yes, oddly I do come from Sussex.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
True, but the Tories are even more fucked now than the Tories were fucked in the 1990s
I just can't see the circs as to how they appear more competent and regain a lead. But, we live in interesting times etc
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
Is that not at least an improvement on (a) complete mendacious buffoon acting liar and (b) hopeless incompetent work experience girl?
Yes, but it’s still depressing. Sunak is a total non-entity.
Sunak is probably our most entity PM since Blair. Even if he is no Thatcher or Churchill either
It’s still early days, but on the evidence so far he is sub-Major and possibly sub-Callaghan, both of whom had long records of public service careers before becoming PM.
"Non-entity", "comes across as mid level Accenture consultant"... Sounds as though you are biased towards associating good prime-ministerial skills with extraversion and being "alpha". But Johnson was an absolute sh*tclown. TMay was a waste of space, Cameron may have tried but didn't have much of a clue either, and Truss should never have been allowed near the job. Sunak is probably halfway between TMay and Cameron in level of competence. That isn't saying much, but he's ahead of loud-voice alpha boy pants-on-fire Johnson for sure.
You have a somewhat strange and limited idea of what 'competence' for the role entails. Britain sits in an uncomfortable place; overseas we have America riding roughshod over us, Europe hostile, at home we have a bloated and incompetent civil service, incapable of doing its basic tasks and often openly rebellious in the face of Ministerial authority, an energy crisis causing rampant inflation, a migrant crisis, and half a dozen other existential threats I've probably forgotten about. A supine accountant with a man crush on Macron is manifestly not up to the job. With Boris and Truss, there was always the possibility that something bonkers and brilliant would happen. Sunak is managing us down the plughole, with no hope of improvement.
Sunak's main problem is that he is a natural second in command. He's the details guy, the man who leads the meeting through the numbers when the boss has made the opening remarks.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
I think what happened to me is instructive.
I had absolutely no reason to vote Conservative, and was entirely disillusioned, until Labour gave me one.
I suspect this will happen more and more to DNVs and WNVs as their policy programme and prospectus for government comes into focus.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
I think all Tories are traumatised by Blair and 1997.
But, it's not Blair and nor is it 1997.
The best advice I could give to punters is to maintain some breadth and flexibility in their position.
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
Is that not at least an improvement on (a) complete mendacious buffoon acting liar and (b) hopeless incompetent work experience girl?
Yes, but it’s still depressing. Sunak is a total non-entity.
Sunak is probably our most entity PM since Blair. Even if he is no Thatcher or Churchill either
It’s still early days, but on the evidence so far he is sub-Major and possibly sub-Callaghan, both of whom had long records of public service careers before becoming PM.
"Non-entity", "comes across as mid level Accenture consultant"... Sounds as though you are biased towards associating good prime-ministerial skills with extraversion and being "alpha". But Johnson was an absolute sh*tclown. TMay was a waste of space, Cameron may have tried but didn't have much of a clue either, and Truss should never have been allowed near the job. Sunak is probably halfway between TMay and Cameron in level of competence. That isn't saying much, but he's ahead of loud-voice alpha boy pants-on-fire Johnson for sure.
You have a somewhat strange and limited idea of what 'competence' for the role entails. Britain sits in an uncomfortable place; overseas we have America riding roughshod over us, Europe hostile, at home we have a bloated and incompetent civil service, incapable of doing its basic tasks and often openly rebellious in the face of Ministerial authority, an energy crisis causing rampant inflation, a migrant crisis, and half a dozen other existential threats I've probably forgotten about. A supine accountant with a man crush on Macron is manifestly not up to the job. With Boris and Truss, there was always the possibility that something bonkers and brilliant would happen. Sunak is managing us down the plughole, with no hope of improvement.
Sunak's main problem is that he is a natural second in command. He's the details guy, the man who leads the meeting through the numbers when the boss has made the opening remarks.
Yes, but it’s been a long time since we’ve had a boss who would trust their second in command, so what choice did he have?
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I was at a party in Fitzroy Square last weekend, and the homeowner had taken in a rather lovely Ukrainian refugee in her late 20s.
Surprised Hunt's so negative. I mean, he's a bit of a Hunt, but broadly competent and that should count for something. He shouldn't be within spitting distance of Raab or Braverman.
He's a Remainer traitor (so was Rishi, I read it on here), of course he is so negative.
Off topic, but I was sitting here wondering whether there was any good news to celebrate. I decided there was a bit. It occurred to me (no idea why) that Laurence Fox (and his Reclaim Party) seems to have completely disappeared from sight.
Off topic, but I was sitting here wondering whether there was any good news to celebrate. I decided there was a bit. It occurred to me (no idea why) that Laurence Fox (and his Reclaim Party) seems to have completely disappeared from sight.
If that's because Farage is back that's not necessarily good news.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I was at a party in Fitzroy Square last weekend, and the homeowner had taken in a rather lovely Ukrainian refugee in her late 20s.
Her husband is currently fighting in Ukraine.
Assuming he survives, she'll be going back.
I've got a few friends and fam who have taken in Ukes. They all say: They're putting down roots, kids are going to UK schools, they're learning English and getting jobs
Quite difficult to motivate yourself to go back to ruined Kharkhiv and rebuild it, esp with Putin still lurking, if you're getting used to the UK (or Germany, etc)
A tragedy for Ukraine. They will lose millions of young people
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
Is that not at least an improvement on (a) complete mendacious buffoon acting liar and (b) hopeless incompetent work experience girl?
Yes, but it’s still depressing. Sunak is a total non-entity.
Sunak is probably our most entity PM since Blair. Even if he is no Thatcher or Churchill either
It’s still early days, but on the evidence so far he is sub-Major and possibly sub-Callaghan, both of whom had long records of public service careers before becoming PM.
"Non-entity", "comes across as mid level Accenture consultant"... Sounds as though you are biased towards associating good prime-ministerial skills with extraversion and being "alpha". But Johnson was an absolute sh*tclown. TMay was a waste of space, Cameron may have tried but didn't have much of a clue either, and Truss should never have been allowed near the job. Sunak is probably halfway between TMay and Cameron in level of competence. That isn't saying much, but he's ahead of loud-voice alpha boy pants-on-fire Johnson for sure.
You have a somewhat strange and limited idea of what 'competence' for the role entails. Britain sits in an uncomfortable place; overseas we have America riding roughshod over us, Europe hostile, at home we have a bloated and incompetent civil service, incapable of doing its basic tasks and often openly rebellious in the face of Ministerial authority, an energy crisis causing rampant inflation, a migrant crisis, and half a dozen other existential threats I've probably forgotten about. A supine accountant with a man crush on Macron is manifestly not up to the job. With Boris and Truss, there was always the possibility that something bonkers and brilliant would happen. Sunak is managing us down the plughole, with no hope of improvement.
Sunak's main problem is that he is a natural second in command. He's the details guy, the man who leads the meeting through the numbers when the boss has made the opening remarks.
That could be an astute assessment. My armchair psychological verdict is that he wants to be 'in the club' all the time - perhaps his background as the child of chemists at a very posh school was difficult. But it's a very useless and dangerous politician who roll over for anyone with power.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
The last Tory lead prior to 1997 was the very first poll of 1993.
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
Is that not at least an improvement on (a) complete mendacious buffoon acting liar and (b) hopeless incompetent work experience girl?
Yes, but it’s still depressing. Sunak is a total non-entity.
Sunak is probably our most entity PM since Blair. Even if he is no Thatcher or Churchill either
It’s still early days, but on the evidence so far he is sub-Major and possibly sub-Callaghan, both of whom had long records of public service careers before becoming PM.
"Non-entity", "comes across as mid level Accenture consultant"... Sounds as though you are biased towards associating good prime-ministerial skills with extraversion and being "alpha". But Johnson was an absolute sh*tclown. TMay was a waste of space, Cameron may have tried but didn't have much of a clue either, and Truss should never have been allowed near the job. Sunak is probably halfway between TMay and Cameron in level of competence. That isn't saying much, but he's ahead of loud-voice alpha boy pants-on-fire Johnson for sure.
You have a somewhat strange and limited idea of what 'competence' for the role entails. Britain sits in an uncomfortable place; overseas we have America riding roughshod over us, Europe hostile, at home we have a bloated and incompetent civil service, incapable of doing its basic tasks and often openly rebellious in the face of Ministerial authority, an energy crisis causing rampant inflation, a migrant crisis, and half a dozen other existential threats I've probably forgotten about. A supine accountant with a man crush on Macron is manifestly not up to the job. With Boris and Truss, there was always the possibility that something bonkers and brilliant would happen. Sunak is managing us down the plughole, with no hope of improvement.
Sunak's main problem is that he is a natural second in command. He's the details guy, the man who leads the meeting through the numbers when the boss has made the opening remarks.
That could be an astute assessment. My armchair psychological verdict is that he wants to be 'in the club' all the time - perhaps his background as the child of chemists at a very posh school was difficult. But it's a very useless and dangerous politician who roll over for anyone with power.
And yet he led the rebellion on climate reparations against Biden, which resulted in Macron getting his grand welcome last week.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
Is it really that many? Quite remarkable given there were very few in the UK before the latest invasion I believe.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
I think all Tories are traumatised by Blair and 1997.
But, it's not Blair and nor is it 1997.
The best advice I could give to punters is to maintain some breadth and flexibility in their position.
Two years is a long time.
Yes, but this government is clearly knackered - intellectually, morally, perhaps even physically. All governments make mistakes but, given the challenges of the times, we desperately need a government with a fresh mandate to take some radical decisions (Starmer, I know, but one can always hope that a win will give him a bit of oomph).
More than anything, we can’t carry on with a government whose electoral position pushes them to defend better off pensioners (like me) beyond the point of all common sense and at the expense of those actually keeping the country going. For that reason alone no sensible person should be thinking of voting Tory next time.
The way nurses are being treated, so soon after being national heroes, is scandalous. The government is trotting out all the usual ‘no money’ arguments after having just maintained the hugely expensive triple lock on pensions and done nothing at all to address the glaring unfairness of the tax system.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
Is it really that many? Quite remarkable given there were very few in the UK before the latest invasion I believe.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
Is it really that many? Quite remarkable given there were very few in the UK before the latest invasion I believe.
There are several million in Poland.
Of course, and I assume many more in other nearby countries and places which already had significant Ukrainian populations, but we didn't and it's not always easy to get here.
I had absolutely no reason to vote Conservative, and was entirely disillusioned, until Labour gave me one.
I suspect this will happen more and more to DNVs and WNVs as their policy programme and prospectus for government comes into focus.
There's also the possibility once we find out about more about the next five years of Conservative Government some will realise Labour isn't the worse of the two options.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
The fact that most of them are women and children with their men still at home?
Way Off Topic . . . And Just in Case You Were Wondering . . .
WA 3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT REQUESTED MACHINE RECOUNT
Requested by loser Putinist (officially "Prefers Republican Party") candidate for US House Joe Kent. As voting systems in all seven counties within WA03 use digital scan tabulation systems, state law provides that only thing done for machine recounting, is review of under-votes in the race, that is ballots where voter selected neither Kent or Democratic Congresswoman Almost-Elect Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, nor wrote Mickey Mouse or other alternative write-in.
Don't have exact number of under-votes in this race, but give or take 4k total.
Two counties finished their part of recount yesterday, Wednesday, and certified same today, Thursday:
> COWLITZ = 44.7k votes in this race, 2nd-largest in the district, don't ha Recount compared with original > Joe Kent gained +1 vote! And so did MGP also +1; so net change zilch.
> PACIFIC = 11.9k votes, only county other than Clark that voted for Perez Recount compared with original > zero changes
Does anyone spot a trend here?
> CLARK = 205k votes, the Big Kahuna with 64% of WA03 total vote, recounting today, Thursday
> THURSTON = 13.7k votes, just part of the county, recounting today, Thurs
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I was at a party in Fitzroy Square last weekend, and the homeowner had taken in a rather lovely Ukrainian refugee in her late 20s.
Her husband is currently fighting in Ukraine.
Assuming he survives, she'll be going back.
I've got a few friends and fam who have taken in Ukes. They all say: They're putting down roots, kids are going to UK schools, they're learning English and getting jobs
Quite difficult to motivate yourself to go back to ruined Kharkhiv and rebuild it, esp with Putin still lurking, if you're getting used to the UK (or Germany, etc)
A tragedy for Ukraine. They will lose millions of young people
The fact that they are taking the opportunity to benefit from our language, employment and educational opportunities while they are here doesn’t necessarily imply that they won’t go home.
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
I've been pretty disappointed with him overall. I thought he'd have grown into the role quicker
Shut up; that's not a short man joke
Why did he want to be PM? He appears to have no real conviction except what he seems to have read off a PPT.
He thought he'd be better than any other option?
Depressingly, he was probably right as well.
Sunak probably has the best CV we have had for any PM in decades. 1st from Oxford, serious private sector experience as an ex Goldman Sachs banker, partner in hedge funds, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He may not be particularly ideological but world leaders also respect him, Macron and Biden give him much more respect than they did Boris and Truss or Macron did May
No they don't; they know they can walk over him. That's not real respect; it's the opposite.
They may have thought that about May and Truss not Sunak
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
I've been pretty disappointed with him overall. I thought he'd have grown into the role quicker
Shut up; that's not a short man joke
Why did he want to be PM? He appears to have no real conviction except what he seems to have read off a PPT.
He thought he'd be better than any other option?
Depressingly, he was probably right as well.
Sunak probably has the best CV we have had for any PM in decades. 1st from Oxford, serious private sector experience as an ex Goldman Sachs banker, partner in hedge funds, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He may not be particularly ideological but world leaders also respect him, Macron and Biden give him much more respect than they did Boris and Truss or Macron did May
No they don't; they know they can walk over him. That's not real respect; it's the opposite.
They may have thought that about May and Truss not Sunak
You haven't done your homework where Truss is concerned. She always challenged her US counterparts when they tried to walk over her, which is presumably one of the reasons that they hated her.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I was at a party in Fitzroy Square last weekend, and the homeowner had taken in a rather lovely Ukrainian refugee in her late 20s.
Her husband is currently fighting in Ukraine.
Assuming he survives, she'll be going back.
I've got a few friends and fam who have taken in Ukes. They all say: They're putting down roots, kids are going to UK schools, they're learning English and getting jobs
Quite difficult to motivate yourself to go back to ruined Kharkhiv and rebuild it, esp with Putin still lurking, if you're getting used to the UK (or Germany, etc)
A tragedy for Ukraine. They will lose millions of young people
The fact that they are taking the opportunity to benefit from our language, employment and educational opportunities while they are here doesn’t necessarily imply that they won’t go home.
It's simple human nature, however. What can Ukraine offer for the next 10-20 years? A lot of rebuilding in a ruined country. And that's if the war ends well and soon
If you've made it all the way to the UK the willingness to go back might be weak. If you're just over the border in Poland or Romania, fair enough
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I was at a party in Fitzroy Square last weekend, and the homeowner had taken in a rather lovely Ukrainian refugee in her late 20s.
Her husband is currently fighting in Ukraine.
Assuming he survives, she'll be going back.
I've got a few friends and fam who have taken in Ukes. They all say: They're putting down roots, kids are going to UK schools, they're learning English and getting jobs
Quite difficult to motivate yourself to go back to ruined Kharkhiv and rebuild it, esp with Putin still lurking, if you're getting used to the UK (or Germany, etc)
A tragedy for Ukraine. They will lose millions of young people
It's really difficult. There are those who want to go back and be part of rebuilding. But especially if you have young child(ren), and you see a good chance of a much more secure future for your child, who's already picking up the language, made new friends, it's going to be difficult to take them back to Ukraine I think. Hell of a risk to uproot them again if there is no guarantee of a stable situation in Ukraine, even when the current war ends.
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
I've been pretty disappointed with him overall. I thought he'd have grown into the role quicker
Shut up; that's not a short man joke
Why did he want to be PM? He appears to have no real conviction except what he seems to have read off a PPT.
He thought he'd be better than any other option?
Depressingly, he was probably right as well.
Sunak probably has the best CV we have had for any PM in decades. 1st from Oxford, serious private sector experience as an ex Goldman Sachs banker, partner in hedge funds, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He may not be particularly ideological but world leaders also respect him, Macron and Biden give him much more respect than they did Boris and Truss or Macron did May
No they don't; they know they can walk over him. That's not real respect; it's the opposite.
They may have thought that about May and Truss not Sunak
You haven't done your homework where Truss is concerned. She always challenged her US counterparts when they tried to walk over her, which is presumably one of the reasons that they hated her.
Yes but Truss did that for the Lolz and never listened to anyone about anything, ever. She should never have got anywhere near the leadership, and wouldn’t have, save for her idiot predecessor wanting someone who didn’t pose any credible threat.
Who do British people have an actually favourable opinion of, then?
I remember the YouGov panel suggested the answer was (1) powerless Royals (2) powerless global celebrities of the Michelle Obama ilk (3) Alan Sugar and Deborah Meaden.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I was at a party in Fitzroy Square last weekend, and the homeowner had taken in a rather lovely Ukrainian refugee in her late 20s.
Her husband is currently fighting in Ukraine.
Assuming he survives, she'll be going back.
I've got a few friends and fam who have taken in Ukes. They all say: They're putting down roots, kids are going to UK schools, they're learning English and getting jobs
Quite difficult to motivate yourself to go back to ruined Kharkhiv and rebuild it, esp with Putin still lurking, if you're getting used to the UK (or Germany, etc)
A tragedy for Ukraine. They will lose millions of young people
It's really difficult. There are those who want to go back and be part of rebuilding. But especially if you have young child(ren), and you see a good chance of a much more secure future for your child, who's already picking up the language, made new friends, it's going to be difficult to take them back to Ukraine I think. Hell of a risk to uproot them again if there is no guarantee of a stable situation in Ukraine, even when the current war ends.
Yes, I fear Ukraine has lost millions of people: permanently
Meanwhile reports say Putin is gearing up for another assault in Feb. The war is going to grind on and on and the Ukes will never return
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
I've been pretty disappointed with him overall. I thought he'd have grown into the role quicker
Shut up; that's not a short man joke
Why did he want to be PM? He appears to have no real conviction except what he seems to have read off a PPT.
He thought he'd be better than any other option?
Depressingly, he was probably right as well.
Sunak probably has the best CV we have had for any PM in decades. 1st from Oxford, serious private sector experience as an ex Goldman Sachs banker, partner in hedge funds, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He may not be particularly ideological but world leaders also respect him, Macron and Biden give him much more respect than they did Boris and Truss or Macron did May
No they don't; they know they can walk over him. That's not real respect; it's the opposite.
They may have thought that about May and Truss not Sunak
You haven't done your homework where Truss is concerned. She always challenged her US counterparts when they tried to walk over her, which is presumably one of the reasons that they hated her.
Difficult to imagine anyone would have had time to try to walk over her. One step and she'd have been gone.
As for "challenging her US counterparts", one has difficulty imagining that tongue-tied rabbit caught in the headlights challenging a paper bag.
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
I've been pretty disappointed with him overall. I thought he'd have grown into the role quicker
Shut up; that's not a short man joke
Why did he want to be PM? He appears to have no real conviction except what he seems to have read off a PPT.
He thought he'd be better than any other option?
Depressingly, he was probably right as well.
Sunak probably has the best CV we have had for any PM in decades. 1st from Oxford, serious private sector experience as an ex Goldman Sachs banker, partner in hedge funds, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He may not be particularly ideological but world leaders also respect him, Macron and Biden give him much more respect than they did Boris and Truss or Macron did May
No they don't; they know they can walk over him. That's not real respect; it's the opposite.
They may have thought that about May and Truss not Sunak
You haven't done your homework where Truss is concerned. She always challenged her US counterparts when they tried to walk over her, which is presumably one of the reasons that they hated her.
Yes but Truss did that for the Lolz and never listened to anyone about anything, ever. She should never have got anywhere near the leadership, and wouldn’t have, save for her idiot predecessor wanting someone who didn’t pose any credible threat.
I don't think she did do it for 'the Lolz'; she took a frank and transactional approach to the meetings and where someone was asking a lot but not giving anything back, she pointed it out. I truly believe her comments on Macron were a result of that - the jury was indeed out on whether he was a friend of foe, and his words didn't match up to his deeds. Whether she was wise to say so publicly was another matter. But on speaking truth to power, she was a giant to Sunak's midget (sorry not a height joke).
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
I've been pretty disappointed with him overall. I thought he'd have grown into the role quicker
Shut up; that's not a short man joke
Why did he want to be PM? He appears to have no real conviction except what he seems to have read off a PPT.
He thought he'd be better than any other option?
Depressingly, he was probably right as well.
Sunak probably has the best CV we have had for any PM in decades. 1st from Oxford, serious private sector experience as an ex Goldman Sachs banker, partner in hedge funds, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He may not be particularly ideological but world leaders also respect him, Macron and Biden give him much more respect than they did Boris and Truss or Macron did May
No they don't; they know they can walk over him. That's not real respect; it's the opposite.
They may have thought that about May and Truss not Sunak
You haven't done your homework where Truss is concerned. She always challenged her US counterparts when they tried to walk over her, which is presumably one of the reasons that they hated her.
Difficult to imagine anyone would have had time to try to walk over her. One step and she'd have been gone.
As for "challenging her US counterparts", one has difficulty imagining that tongue-tied rabbit caught in the headlights challenging a paper bag.
Accounts of the conversations are available publicly, so you don't have to tax your limited creative capacity in imagining them.
I now have sciatica - probably worsened by the pounding my back took on Monday by car trying its best to kill me. It is agonising.
Raab is a nitwit. He has done immeasurable damage to the justice system and his Bill of Rights is a complete dog's breakfast. Being an alleged bully is merely the icing on the cake of all his other faults.
Completely off topic some of you may be interested in this - which I wrote on conflicts of interest and the police, though it applies equally to other bodies, both public and private. Many of the financial and other scandals we see (from the Unite to the Mone one via plenty of others) have unmanaged and unnecessary conflicts of interest at their heart.
Labour still on the slide, I see. Must be their private schools VAT policy - deeply unpopular.
Class war on private schools is something even New Labour did.
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
It's noticeable how silent the detractors of private schools are when they're asked for ideas to improve state schools. A clear sign that they're driven by ideological hatred, rather than being focused on achieving the best possible educational outcomes.
Making private education unaffordable will just mean people game the system in other ways, like buying property in a good school catchment area. You can't stop people trying to buy the best for their children - it's just a part of human nature.
Take the top public/boarding schools out of the equation, and most private day schools are full of kids whose parents are on above average, middle class salaries but who are spending a significant portion of their post-tax income to give their kids a better start in life, at considerable cost to their own standard of living. It is those people, and not the mega rich who send their kids to Eton et al, who will suffer the most from Labour's misguided policy.
I now have sciatica - probably worsened by the pounding my back took on Monday by car trying its best to kill me. It is agonising.
Raab is a nitwit. He has done immeasurable damage to the justice system and his Bill of Rights is a complete dog's breakfast. Being an alleged bully is merely the icing on the cake of all his other faults.
Completely off topic some of you may be interested in this - which I wrote on conflicts of interest and the police, though it applies equally to other bodies, both public and private. Many of the financial and other scandals we see (from the Unite to the Mone one via plenty of others) have unmanaged and unnecessary conflicts of interest at their heart.
Conflicts of interest issues are rarely as complicated as people who 'inadvertently' operate with conflicts like to pretend. They have an interest in making it all seem too confusing for any organisation to do properly.
Emphasis mine.
Nowhere is the existence of such conflicts of interest more troubling than in the police. The police enforce the criminal law. They have significant powers over us. They have a duty to police “without fear or favour”. They need not just do this but be seen to do this. The reality of bias, the perception of a bias are damaging to proper policing. Such conflicts of interest risk damaging the rule of law and citizens’ faith in it.
This has been made more acute by three factors:
(1) Police misunderstanding their obligations as employers under equalities legislation.
(2) Confusing their obligations as an employer with their outward-facing public service obligations.
(3) The police’s approach to non-crime hate incidents.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
Of course Starmer isn't Blair; he's not a posh public schoolboy.
In the last few months I have made just two firm predictions with actual betting odds and the advice that this is VALUE (as against my standard issue ranting and frothing)
The first was Katie Hobbs for Arizona governor at 5/1. Won
The second was France as World Cup winner. At 6/1. Looking pretty good
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
Yes, I did assume you meant next year not this year.
Taking free money from Leondamus should be illegal.
One fears we are now actually going to see a Tory lead next year, and can only pray that it will prove to be some weird outlier.
Recently, the smallest Labour leads are Lab +11 (Savanta, but already superceded) and Lab +13 (Deltapoll). If they're the edge of outlierdom, we're talking a C+6 L-6 shift to get the Conservatives ahead again. Nothing's impossible, but that feels like a bet on a crazy event rather than a bet on tectonic plates shifting.
Consider what happened last time the Conservatives fell out of favour. A poll lead in January 1993, some leads around the September 2000 fuel crisis, the odd outlier in 2003/4, and finally systematically pulling a lead with the New Dave bounce in December 2005.
The Conservatives were unpopular to the degree of irrelevance for a long time.
I now have sciatica - probably worsened by the pounding my back took on Monday by car trying its best to kill me. It is agonising.
Raab is a nitwit. He has done immeasurable damage to the justice system and his Bill of Rights is a complete dog's breakfast. Being an alleged bully is merely the icing on the cake of all his other faults.
Completely off topic some of you may be interested in this - which I wrote on conflicts of interest and the police, though it applies equally to other bodies, both public and private. Many of the financial and other scandals we see (from the Unite to the Mone one via plenty of others) have unmanaged and unnecessary conflicts of interest at their heart.
Sorry to hear about the sciatica, hope you can get treatment speedily.
Raab's work as a dog's breakfast isn't a great metaphor though. I mean, if you gave that to a dog for its breakfast you'd get done for cruelty to animals.
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
I've been pretty disappointed with him overall. I thought he'd have grown into the role quicker
Shut up; that's not a short man joke
Why did he want to be PM? He appears to have no real conviction except what he seems to have read off a PPT.
He thought he'd be better than any other option?
Depressingly, he was probably right as well.
Sunak probably has the best CV we have had for any PM in decades. 1st from Oxford, serious private sector experience as an ex Goldman Sachs banker, partner in hedge funds, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He may not be particularly ideological but world leaders also respect him, Macron and Biden give him much more respect than they did Boris and Truss or Macron did May
No they don't; they know they can walk over him. That's not real respect; it's the opposite.
They may have thought that about May and Truss not Sunak
You haven't done your homework where Truss is concerned. She always challenged her US counterparts when they tried to walk over her, which is presumably one of the reasons that they hated her.
Difficult to imagine anyone would have had time to try to walk over her. One step and she'd have been gone.
As for "challenging her US counterparts", one has difficulty imagining that tongue-tied rabbit caught in the headlights challenging a paper bag.
Accounts of the conversations are available publicly, so you don't have to tax your limited creative capacity in imagining them.
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
I've been pretty disappointed with him overall. I thought he'd have grown into the role quicker
Shut up; that's not a short man joke
Why did he want to be PM? He appears to have no real conviction except what he seems to have read off a PPT.
He thought he'd be better than any other option?
Depressingly, he was probably right as well.
Sunak probably has the best CV we have had for any PM in decades. 1st from Oxford, serious private sector experience as an ex Goldman Sachs banker, partner in hedge funds, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He may not be particularly ideological but world leaders also respect him, Macron and Biden give him much more respect than they did Boris and Truss or Macron did May
No they don't; they know they can walk over him. That's not real respect; it's the opposite.
They may have thought that about May and Truss not Sunak
You haven't done your homework where Truss is concerned. She always challenged her US counterparts when they tried to walk over her, which is presumably one of the reasons that they hated her.
Did she? She was pushing a walkover for the US trade deal as was the case for many of the other trade deals she negotiated, especially for our farmers eg the Australia deal
Labour still on the slide, I see. Must be their private schools VAT policy - deeply unpopular.
Class war on private schools is something even New Labour did.
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
So what? Only cater for 7% of UK children. And that exclusivity is a desired feature of their marketing anyway.
Yes and Labour want to make them even more exclusive, can't have bright working class children getting on and becoming middle class professionals and property owning Tories can we. Hence it was Labour under Wilson and Crosland that started shutting most of the grammar schools and only the Tories who allowed more choice with free schools
In the last few months I have made just two firm predictions with actual betting odds and the advice that this is VALUE (as against my standard issue ranting and frothing)
The first was Katie Hobbs for Arizona governor at 5/1. Won
The second was France as World Cup winner. At 6/1. Looking pretty good
I didn’t see the second so can only take your word for it.
On the first, we all know you spent months and months ramping Kari Lake, and were just trying to cover your arse when it became apparent that your bombast had turned to BS.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
Of course Starmer isn't Blair; he's not a posh public schoolboy.
No, Starmer is just a knight of the realm who grew up in Surrey and went to a grammar school that only became a public school when he was in the 6th form
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
Of course Starmer isn't Blair; he's not a posh public schoolboy.
No, Starmer is just a knight of the realm who grew up in Surrey and went to a grammar school that only became a public school when he was in the 6th form
Strcitly speaking, it didn't become a public school, it became a private school. As it isn't a boarding school and caters mostly for the local area it doesn't meet the most widely used definition.
Weirdly, the boarding school in Reigate is in fact a state school.
I now have sciatica - probably worsened by the pounding my back took on Monday by car trying its best to kill me. It is agonising.
Raab is a nitwit. He has done immeasurable damage to the justice system and his Bill of Rights is a complete dog's breakfast. Being an alleged bully is merely the icing on the cake of all his other faults.
Completely off topic some of you may be interested in this - which I wrote on conflicts of interest and the police, though it applies equally to other bodies, both public and private. Many of the financial and other scandals we see (from the Unite to the Mone one via plenty of others) have unmanaged and unnecessary conflicts of interest at their heart.
Sorry to hear about the sciatica, hope you can get treatment speedily.
Raab's work as a dog's breakfast isn't a great metaphor though. I mean, if you gave that to a dog for its breakfast you'd get done for cruelty to animals.
Raab is an idiot, like most of the ministers of this government.
Unfortunately, I doubt if Labour would be any better in government. There is, as @cyclefree puts it, no good reason to vote for this government, other than to prevent Labour from getting an overwhelming majority.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
Of course Starmer isn't Blair; he's not a posh public schoolboy.
No, Starmer is just a knight of the realm who grew up in Surrey and went to a grammar school that only became a public school when he was in the 6th form
Wiki says: Blair's lowest polling lead pre GE97 was a 42/37 lead for ICM on 21/4/97.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
Of course Starmer isn't Blair; he's not a posh public schoolboy.
No, Starmer is just a knight of the realm who grew up in Surrey and went to a grammar school that only became a public school when he was in the 6th form
Working class lad made good. Who wants the same opportunities for everyone else. Based on ability, rather than parental wealth and connections.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
Of course Starmer isn't Blair; he's not a posh public schoolboy.
No, Starmer is just a knight of the realm who grew up in Surrey and went to a grammar school that only became a public school when he was in the 6th form
Strcitly speaking, it didn't become a public school, it became a private school. As it isn't a boarding school and caters mostly for the local area it doesn't meet the most widely used definition.
Weirdly, the boarding school in Reigate is in fact a state school.
Labour still on the slide, I see. Must be their private schools VAT policy - deeply unpopular.
Class war on private schools is something even New Labour did.
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
"Class war"? Ha ha. If making private schools pay their fair share of tax is class war, Marx would be laughing his socks off in his metropolitan elite grave up in Highgate.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
Of course Starmer isn't Blair; he's not a posh public schoolboy.
No, Starmer is just a knight of the realm who grew up in Surrey and went to a grammar school that only became a public school when he was in the 6th form
Working class lad made good. Who wants the same opportunities for everyone else. Based on ability, rather than parental wealth and connections.
That'll do for me.
(Now where did I put that balsamic glaze?)
No, if he did he would support allowing more grammar schools and free schools and not seek to cut private school bursaries by abolishing charity status for them
I now have sciatica - probably worsened by the pounding my back took on Monday by car trying its best to kill me. It is agonising.
Raab is a nitwit. He has done immeasurable damage to the justice system and his Bill of Rights is a complete dog's breakfast. Being an alleged bully is merely the icing on the cake of all his other faults.
Completely off topic some of you may be interested in this - which I wrote on conflicts of interest and the police, though it applies equally to other bodies, both public and private. Many of the financial and other scandals we see (from the Unite to the Mone one via plenty of others) have unmanaged and unnecessary conflicts of interest at their heart.
Sorry to hear about the sciatica, hope you can get treatment speedily.
Raab's work as a dog's breakfast isn't a great metaphor though. I mean, if you gave that to a dog for its breakfast you'd get done for cruelty to animals.
Raab is an idiot, like most of the ministers of this government.
Unfortunately, I doubt if Labour would be any better in government. There is, as @cyclefree puts it, no good reason to vote for this government, other than to prevent Labour from getting an overwhelming majority.
Maybe, though the question remains how much of that is down to Sunak who may be reluctant to remove all the non-entities promoted by his predecessors for fear that they will cause trouble on the backbenches.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I was at a party in Fitzroy Square last weekend, and the homeowner had taken in a rather lovely Ukrainian refugee in her late 20s.
Her husband is currently fighting in Ukraine.
Assuming he survives, she'll be going back.
I've got a few friends and fam who have taken in Ukes. They all say: They're putting down roots, kids are going to UK schools, they're learning English and getting jobs
Quite difficult to motivate yourself to go back to ruined Kharkhiv and rebuild it, esp with Putin still lurking, if you're getting used to the UK (or Germany, etc)
A tragedy for Ukraine. They will lose millions of young people
It's really difficult. There are those who want to go back and be part of rebuilding. But especially if you have young child(ren), and you see a good chance of a much more secure future for your child, who's already picking up the language, made new friends, it's going to be difficult to take them back to Ukraine I think. Hell of a risk to uproot them again if there is no guarantee of a stable situation in Ukraine, even when the current war ends.
Labour still on the slide, I see. Must be their private schools VAT policy - deeply unpopular.
Class war on private schools is something even New Labour did.
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
It's noticeable how silent the detractors of private schools are when they're asked for ideas to improve state schools. A clear sign that they're driven by ideological hatred, rather than being focused on achieving the best possible educational outcomes.
Making private education unaffordable will just mean people game the system in other ways, like buying property in a good school catchment area. You can't stop people trying to buy the best for their children - it's just a part of human nature.
Take the top public/boarding schools out of the equation, and most private day schools are full of kids whose parents are on above average, middle class salaries but who are spending a significant portion of their post-tax income to give their kids a better start in life, at considerable cost to their own standard of living. It is those people, and not the mega rich who send their kids to Eton et al, who will suffer the most from Labour's misguided policy.
On your last sentence, you obviously think that to go to a state school is to "suffer". Utter nonsense.
On your first sentence, I (and I'm sure all the other educationalists on here) have absolutely loads of ideas on how to improve state schools further (most are already pretty good). We wouldn't all agree on every detail, but as a starting point I suspect even better teaching, improved management, less DfE interference, and smaller class sizes would achieve a pretty high degree of consensus.
Labour still on the slide, I see. Must be their private schools VAT policy - deeply unpopular.
Class war on private schools is something even New Labour did.
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
It's noticeable how silent the detractors of private schools are when they're asked for ideas to improve state schools. A clear sign that they're driven by ideological hatred, rather than being focused on achieving the best possible educational outcomes.
Making private education unaffordable will just mean people game the system in other ways, like buying property in a good school catchment area. You can't stop people trying to buy the best for their children - it's just a part of human nature.
Take the top public/boarding schools out of the equation, and most private day schools are full of kids whose parents are on above average, middle class salaries but who are spending a significant portion of their post-tax income to give their kids a better start in life, at considerable cost to their own standard of living. It is those people, and not the mega rich who send their kids to Eton et al, who will suffer the most from Labour's misguided policy.
On your last sentence, you obviously think that to go to a state school is to "suffer". Utter nonsense.
On your first sentence, I (and I'm sure all the other educationalists on here) have absolutely loads of ideas on how to improve state schools further (most are already pretty good). We wouldn't all agree, but as a starting point I suspect even better teaching, improved management, less DfE interference, and smaller class sizes would achieve a pretty high degree of consensus.
I went to a state school....to suffer was an understatement
Labour still on the slide, I see. Must be their private schools VAT policy - deeply unpopular.
Class war on private schools is something even New Labour did.
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
It's noticeable how silent the detractors of private schools are when they're asked for ideas to improve state schools. A clear sign that they're driven by ideological hatred, rather than being focused on achieving the best possible educational outcomes.
Making private education unaffordable will just mean people game the system in other ways, like buying property in a good school catchment area. You can't stop people trying to buy the best for their children - it's just a part of human nature.
Take the top public/boarding schools out of the equation, and most private day schools are full of kids whose parents are on above average, middle class salaries but who are spending a significant portion of their post-tax income to give their kids a better start in life, at considerable cost to their own standard of living. It is those people, and not the mega rich who send their kids to Eton et al, who will suffer the most from Labour's misguided policy.
On your last sentence, you obviously think that to go to a state school is to "suffer". Utter nonsense.
On your first sentence, I (and I'm sure all the other educationalists on here) have absolutely loads of ideas on how to improve state schools further (most are already pretty good). We wouldn't all agree, but as a starting point I suspect even better teaching, improved management, less DfE interference, and smaller class sizes would achieve a pretty high degree of consensus.
I went to a state school....to suffer was an understatement
Reading your negative posts, it sounds as if you are still suffering.
Labour still on the slide, I see. Must be their private schools VAT policy - deeply unpopular.
Class war on private schools is something even New Labour did.
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
It's noticeable how silent the detractors of private schools are when they're asked for ideas to improve state schools. A clear sign that they're driven by ideological hatred, rather than being focused on achieving the best possible educational outcomes.
Making private education unaffordable will just mean people game the system in other ways, like buying property in a good school catchment area. You can't stop people trying to buy the best for their children - it's just a part of human nature.
Take the top public/boarding schools out of the equation, and most private day schools are full of kids whose parents are on above average, middle class salaries but who are spending a significant portion of their post-tax income to give their kids a better start in life, at considerable cost to their own standard of living. It is those people, and not the mega rich who send their kids to Eton et al, who will suffer the most from Labour's misguided policy.
On your last sentence, you obviously think that to go to a state school is to "suffer". Utter nonsense.
On your first sentence, I (and I'm sure all the other educationalists on here) have absolutely loads of ideas on how to improve state schools further (most are already pretty good). We wouldn't all agree, but as a starting point I suspect even better teaching, improved management, less DfE interference, and smaller class sizes would achieve a pretty high degree of consensus.
I went to a state school....to suffer was an understatement
Reading your negative posts, it sounds as if you are still suffering.
Shrugs going to a state school meant my notes and books were set light to, answering a question in class or showing any interest in class resulted in retribution in the playground or outside school, teachers never gave a shit and were almost as bad as the kids.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I was at a party in Fitzroy Square last weekend, and the homeowner had taken in a rather lovely Ukrainian refugee in her late 20s.
Her husband is currently fighting in Ukraine.
Assuming he survives, she'll be going back.
I've got a few friends and fam who have taken in Ukes. They all say: They're putting down roots, kids are going to UK schools, they're learning English and getting jobs
Quite difficult to motivate yourself to go back to ruined Kharkhiv and rebuild it, esp with Putin still lurking, if you're getting used to the UK (or Germany, etc)
A tragedy for Ukraine. They will lose millions of young people
It's really difficult. There are those who want to go back and be part of rebuilding. But especially if you have young child(ren), and you see a good chance of a much more secure future for your child, who's already picking up the language, made new friends, it's going to be difficult to take them back to Ukraine I think. Hell of a risk to uproot them again if there is no guarantee of a stable situation in Ukraine, even when the current war ends.
One reason it's important we don't just focus on ending the fighting as soon as possible. And why the Ukrainians don't think that way. They want this dealt with once and for all. And they're right.
Hmm coldest day of the winter so far here, already -4 and getting colder, and there is no hot water or heating in our building. About 80 flats. But I just feel lucky that the electricity still works!, dug out the electric blanket. Fairly well-organised community here making sure everyone is ok
Good luck! Hope you get the heating back on soon.
Thanks! The electric blanket is quite a good way to keep warm if you don't have to move around.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I suspect nearly all of the 120,000 Ukrainians in the UK will end up staying (potentially with many more to come). If you've made it all the way to Blighty from Kherson or Luhansk, what will tempt you back?
I was at a party in Fitzroy Square last weekend, and the homeowner had taken in a rather lovely Ukrainian refugee in her late 20s.
Her husband is currently fighting in Ukraine.
Assuming he survives, she'll be going back.
I've got a few friends and fam who have taken in Ukes. They all say: They're putting down roots, kids are going to UK schools, they're learning English and getting jobs
Quite difficult to motivate yourself to go back to ruined Kharkhiv and rebuild it, esp with Putin still lurking, if you're getting used to the UK (or Germany, etc)
A tragedy for Ukraine. They will lose millions of young people
It's really difficult. There are those who want to go back and be part of rebuilding. But especially if you have young child(ren), and you see a good chance of a much more secure future for your child, who's already picking up the language, made new friends, it's going to be difficult to take them back to Ukraine I think. Hell of a risk to uproot them again if there is no guarantee of a stable situation in Ukraine, even when the current war ends.
Yes, I fear Ukraine has lost millions of people: permanently
Meanwhile reports say Putin is gearing up for another assault in Feb. The war is going to grind on and on and the Ukes will never return
It does depend a lot on war duration I think. Our Ukrainian is a young 20 year old and very keen to get back as soon as she can. Her (shy but charming) boyfriend has been able to leave for 20 days and is over here on a visit currently before flying back.
She’s from Western Ukraine though. Things are tough but it’s still home. If she were from Donbass it might be very different. Generally, for people from the West of the country, it seems Poland is the most popular landing place. There are big cultural and family ties across the border. The food is pretty much identical.
Labour still on the slide, I see. Must be their private schools VAT policy - deeply unpopular.
Class war on private schools is something even New Labour did.
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
It's noticeable how silent the detractors of private schools are when they're asked for ideas to improve state schools. A clear sign that they're driven by ideological hatred, rather than being focused on achieving the best possible educational outcomes.
Making private education unaffordable will just mean people game the system in other ways, like buying property in a good school catchment area. You can't stop people trying to buy the best for their children - it's just a part of human nature.
Take the top public/boarding schools out of the equation, and most private day schools are full of kids whose parents are on above average, middle class salaries but who are spending a significant portion of their post-tax income to give their kids a better start in life, at considerable cost to their own standard of living. It is those people, and not the mega rich who send their kids to Eton et al, who will suffer the most from Labour's misguided policy.
On your last sentence, you obviously think that to go to a state school is to "suffer". Utter nonsense.
On your first sentence, I (and I'm sure all the other educationalists on here) have absolutely loads of ideas on how to improve state schools further (most are already pretty good). We wouldn't all agree on every detail, but as a starting point I suspect even better teaching, improved management, less DfE interference, and smaller class sizes would achieve a pretty high degree of consensus.
Any starting point that doesn’t involve zero DfE interference isn’t going to command my support, and they wouldn’t allow the rest anyway.
The other three ideas seem sensible although how you get ‘improved management’ in practice is a difficult one.
Higher rate goes from 41% to 42% (rest of UK: 40%) Top rate goes from 46% to 47% (rest of UK: 45%)
And higher rate continues to start at £43,663 (rest of UK: £50,270)
Plus Scotland continues to have 3 basic rates: 19%, 20% and 21% - which have overall effect that anyone earning over approx £28k is paying 1% extra on excess over £28k.
It all adds up so that in Scotland:
- On £50k earnings you pay £1,552 more than in rest of UK - On £150k earnings you pay £3,857 more than in rest of UK
Not huge differences but starting to be fairly noticeable.
I now have sciatica - probably worsened by the pounding my back took on Monday by car trying its best to kill me. It is agonising.
Raab is a nitwit. He has done immeasurable damage to the justice system and his Bill of Rights is a complete dog's breakfast. Being an alleged bully is merely the icing on the cake of all his other faults.
Completely off topic some of you may be interested in this - which I wrote on conflicts of interest and the police, though it applies equally to other bodies, both public and private. Many of the financial and other scandals we see (from the Unite to the Mone one via plenty of others) have unmanaged and unnecessary conflicts of interest at their heart.
Sorry to hear about the sciatica, hope you can get treatment speedily.
Raab's work as a dog's breakfast isn't a great metaphor though. I mean, if you gave that to a dog for its breakfast you'd get done for cruelty to animals.
Raab is an idiot, like most of the ministers of this government.
Unfortunately, I doubt if Labour would be any better in government. There is, as @cyclefree puts it, no good reason to vote for this government, other than to prevent Labour from getting an overwhelming majority.
Maybe, though the question remains how much of that is down to Sunak who may be reluctant to remove all the non-entities promoted by his predecessors for fear that they will cause trouble on the backbenches.
Some of them give the impression that they can barely feed and dress themselves.
Sunak has given an interview to Katy Balls in the Spectator. He comes across as mid level Accenture consultant. Truly depressing.
I've been pretty disappointed with him overall. I thought he'd have grown into the role quicker
Shut up; that's not a short man joke
Why did he want to be PM? He appears to have no real conviction except what he seems to have read off a PPT.
He thought he'd be better than any other option?
Depressingly, he was probably right as well.
Sunak probably has the best CV we have had for any PM in decades. 1st from Oxford, serious private sector experience as an ex Goldman Sachs banker, partner in hedge funds, ex Chancellor of the Exchequer.
He may not be particularly ideological but world leaders also respect him, Macron and Biden give him much more respect than they did Boris and Truss or Macron did May
No they don't; they know they can walk over him. That's not real respect; it's the opposite.
They may have thought that about May and Truss not Sunak
You haven't done your homework where Truss is concerned. She always challenged her US counterparts when they tried to walk over her, which is presumably one of the reasons that they hated her.
Did she? She was pushing a walkover for the US trade deal as was the case for many of the other trade deals she negotiated, especially for our farmers eg the Australia deal
I haven't read any of those other trade deals, and I strongly doubt you have either. I find the outrage over the Australi a deal to be very confected - political in nature rather than the result of a grassroots movement. Cheaper food is a good thing.
https://www.1lurer.am/en/2022/08/29/Inside-Liz-Truss’s-not-so-special-relationship-with-US/785199 When the UK’s newly appointed foreign secretary, Liz Truss, met her US counterpart Antony Blinken for the first time last September, the conversation was far from diplomatic, Financial Times reports.
According to people briefed on the discussion, Truss questioned the special relationship between the two countries — a concept that has underpinned the US-UK alliance since the phrase was popularised by Britain’s wartime prime minister Winston Churchill in the 1940s.
Truss said she had seen few tangible examples to support the idea that the relationship was particularly unique, one of the people said, citing Britain’s better trade relations with Canada, Japan and Mexico, as well as a dispute over steel tariffs with the US. “Her attitude was ‘what have you done for me lately?’,” the person said.
This F-35B (STOL) at Fort Worth had a problem. I’m not certain but it appears to me that the pilot couldn’t stop the thrust once it flipped over. The ground ejection was very impressive. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1603469985585762313
Labour still on the slide, I see. Must be their private schools VAT policy - deeply unpopular.
Class war on private schools is something even New Labour did.
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
It's noticeable how silent the detractors of private schools are when they're asked for ideas to improve state schools. A clear sign that they're driven by ideological hatred, rather than being focused on achieving the best possible educational outcomes.
Making private education unaffordable will just mean people game the system in other ways, like buying property in a good school catchment area. You can't stop people trying to buy the best for their children - it's just a part of human nature.
Take the top public/boarding schools out of the equation, and most private day schools are full of kids whose parents are on above average, middle class salaries but who are spending a significant portion of their post-tax income to give their kids a better start in life, at considerable cost to their own standard of living. It is those people, and not the mega rich who send their kids to Eton et al, who will suffer the most from Labour's misguided policy.
On your last sentence, you obviously think that to go to a state school is to "suffer". Utter nonsense.
On your first sentence, I (and I'm sure all the other educationalists on here) have absolutely loads of ideas on how to improve state schools further (most are already pretty good). We wouldn't all agree on every detail, but as a starting point I suspect even better teaching, improved management, less DfE interference, and smaller class sizes would achieve a pretty high degree of consensus.
As I have said on here before I went to a super comprehensive school followed by what I considered to be a poor quality grammar school experience.
So why did I rate the comprehensive school, and why did students in my year achieve so highly?
I arrived in 1973, the second year as a comprehensive. It had previously been a high achieving secondary modern. It is true it was in a good catchment area, but it still is, and the success rates are no longer so great. The school is Woodrush in Wythall/Hollywood, in the Bromsgrove LA, but now an academy and the tragedy is each morning children are catching the bus to Alcester Grammar School in grammar school loving Warwickshire. Back in my day, they wouldn't need to. Oh well.
So why did it work? There was the political will to make comprehensives work so it was properly funded. It wasn't managed by the CEO of an academy trust group on £250,000 a year. It was managed by the Head and team of Deputies under the eye of Worcestershire, later Hereford and Worcester, CC. As far as was possible, key subjects were streamed into ability groups. In theory someone good at maths could be in set one and poor at English in set seven. A bit of an effort there from the timetabler. The head, deputies and staff were enthusiastic and many of the teaching staff in the first decade of their careers. Promotion was regularly from within and the teachers stayed a long time. It was also sport, music, drama and club orientated. Clubs were run during lunchtime and evenings ( at grammar school they were on Wednesday afternoon) It had an excellent reputation as the best state rugby school in the area ( the Leys High School in Redditch ran us close) and an old boys rugby club was set up and thrives today no longer with a connection to the school. When the head from my time retired circa 1990 he was replaced by a "journeyman" headmistress who immediately took rugby off the sports curriculum.
If there is the political will to make a comprehensive school work, it can work. My boys went to an excellent catholic comprehensive in Barry. Funded by the LA and the Catholic church and a dedicated and run by an excellent fair-minded disciplinarian head.
I think at some point in 2023 we're going to see a Tory lead. But maybe just one or two outliers.
I don't
Fancy a bet?
£20 says there won't be a Tory lead in any of the BPC polls, before midnight Dec 31st, 2022?
This is a singularly ungenerous bet!
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
I thought you were being rather nice to give away free money. I was going to ask if I could have some.
Did Blair suffer any polling deficits from 1994-1997?
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
Oh yeah, I'm definitely giving you a good deal at evens.
Ta
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I think there may have been one or two, but I Starmer is no Blair and we live in very erratic times.
Of course Starmer isn't Blair; he's not a posh public schoolboy.
Hopefully should he prevail, he won't become a war criminal either. That was my big plus for Johnson. He wasn't a war criminal. I suppose there is always the prospect that during his second coming he can chalk up that label.
Comments
I meant 2023 - end of next year - obvs
There won't be a Tory lead in a BPC-approved poll before the end of Dec 31st, 2023
Nice easy bet. Let's see
Hardly any, as I recall,
We are in that situation again. It will need a huge black swan to give the Tories a lead. Not impossible, but there is not a 50% chance, which makes this a decent bet at evens
I'm genuinely curious, did Blair ever fall behind in the polls, from 94-97? I seem to recall one brief episode, but maybe I am imagining it
I’m not an expert on the economics of this one but I’m guessing it’s somewhat ahead of current pay levels.
Meanwhile quite a few hospitals are cancelling all their planned surgeries, and telling people not to come unless it's something life threatening.
Lots of sick staff, and lots of patients coming in with respiratory diseases.
And in other news a big proportion of the million Ukrainian refugees in Germany want to stay permanently, not sure if that surprises me. I know some who went back earlier in the year, and but also a few families who are settling in quite well.
I just can't see the circs as to how they appear more competent and regain a lead. But, we live in interesting times etc
I had absolutely no reason to vote Conservative, and was entirely disillusioned, until Labour gave me one.
I suspect this will happen more and more to DNVs and WNVs as their policy programme and prospectus for government comes into focus.
But, it's not Blair and nor is it 1997.
The best advice I could give to punters is to maintain some breadth and flexibility in their position.
Two years is a long time.
Her husband is currently fighting in Ukraine.
Assuming he survives, she'll be going back.
LAB: 45% (+3)
CON: 29% (-2)
LDEM: 8% (-2)
REF: 6% (+1)
GRN: 3% (-)
via @Savanta_UK, 09 - 11 Dec
Argentina 2
France 1.99
Quite difficult to motivate yourself to go back to ruined Kharkhiv and rebuild it, esp with Putin still lurking, if you're getting used to the UK (or Germany, etc)
A tragedy for Ukraine. They will lose millions of young people
More than anything, we can’t carry on with a government whose electoral position pushes them to defend better off pensioners (like me) beyond the point of all common sense and at the expense of those actually keeping the country going. For that reason alone no sensible person should be thinking of voting Tory next time.
The way nurses are being treated, so soon after being national heroes, is scandalous. The government is trotting out all the usual ‘no money’ arguments after having just maintained the hugely expensive triple lock on pensions and done nothing at all to address the glaring unfairness of the tax system.
WA 3rd CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT REQUESTED MACHINE RECOUNT
Requested by loser Putinist (officially "Prefers Republican Party") candidate for US House Joe Kent. As voting systems in all seven counties within WA03 use digital scan tabulation systems, state law provides that only thing done for machine recounting, is review of under-votes in the race, that is ballots where voter selected neither Kent or Democratic Congresswoman Almost-Elect Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, nor wrote Mickey Mouse or other alternative write-in.
Don't have exact number of under-votes in this race, but give or take 4k total.
Two counties finished their part of recount yesterday, Wednesday, and certified same today, Thursday:
> COWLITZ = 44.7k votes in this race, 2nd-largest in the district, don't ha
Recount compared with original > Joe Kent gained +1 vote! And so did MGP also +1; so net change zilch.
> PACIFIC = 11.9k votes, only county other than Clark that voted for Perez
Recount compared with original > zero changes
Does anyone spot a trend here?
> CLARK = 205k votes, the Big Kahuna with 64% of WA03 total vote, recounting today, Thursday
> THURSTON = 13.7k votes, just part of the county, recounting today, Thurs
> WAHKIAKUM = 2.5k votes, smallest in state, recounting today, Thurs
> LEWIS = 35.7k votes, most Republican county in western WA, recounting tomorrow, Friday
> SKAMANIA = 6.2k votes, recounting next Tuesday, Dec. 20 just in time to finish holiday shopping . . .
Doesn't change the fact it will make private schools even more exclusive, reduce scholarships and bursaries and close smaller private schools
If you've made it all the way to the UK the willingness to go back might be weak. If you're just over the border in Poland or Romania, fair enough
Obama and Zelensky.
https://yougov.co.uk/ratings/politics/popularity/public-figures/all
Meanwhile reports say Putin is gearing up for another assault in Feb. The war is going to grind on and on and the Ukes will never return
As for "challenging her US counterparts", one has difficulty imagining that tongue-tied rabbit caught in the headlights challenging a paper bag.
One fears we are now actually going to see a Tory lead next year, and can only pray that it will prove to be some weird outlier.
Raab is a nitwit. He has done immeasurable damage to the justice system and his Bill of Rights is a complete dog's breakfast. Being an alleged bully is merely the icing on the cake of all his other faults.
Completely off topic some of you may be interested in this - which I wrote on conflicts of interest and the police, though it applies equally to other bodies, both public and private. Many of the financial and other scandals we see (from the Unite to the Mone one via plenty of others) have unmanaged and unnecessary conflicts of interest at their heart.
https://twitter.com/legalfeminist/status/1603351292516204545?s=61&t=xEmB_pnO300bUEt0WcC4KQ
Making private education unaffordable will just mean people game the system in other ways, like buying property in a good school catchment area. You can't stop people trying to buy the best for their children - it's just a part of human nature.
Take the top public/boarding schools out of the equation, and most private day schools are full of kids whose parents are on above average, middle class salaries but who are spending a significant portion of their post-tax income to give their kids a better start in life, at considerable cost to their own standard of living. It is those people, and not the mega rich who send their kids to Eton et al, who will suffer the most from Labour's misguided policy.
Emphasis mine.
Nowhere is the existence of such conflicts of interest more troubling than in the police. The police enforce the criminal law. They have significant powers over us. They have a duty to police “without fear or favour”. They need not just do this but be seen to do this. The reality of bias, the perception of a bias are damaging to proper policing. Such conflicts of interest risk damaging the rule of law and citizens’ faith in it.
This has been made more acute by three factors:
(1) Police misunderstanding their obligations as employers under equalities legislation.
(2) Confusing their obligations as an employer with their outward-facing public service obligations.
(3) The police’s approach to non-crime hate incidents.
The first was Katie Hobbs for Arizona governor at 5/1. Won
The second was France as World Cup winner. At 6/1. Looking pretty good
Consider what happened last time the Conservatives fell out of favour. A poll lead in January 1993, some leads around the September 2000 fuel crisis, the odd outlier in 2003/4, and finally systematically pulling a lead with the New Dave bounce in December 2005.
The Conservatives were unpopular to the degree of irrelevance for a long time.
Raab's work as a dog's breakfast isn't a great metaphor though. I mean, if you gave that to a dog for its breakfast you'd get done for cruelty to animals.
On the first, we all know you spent months and months ramping Kari Lake, and were just trying to cover your arse when it became apparent that your bombast had turned to BS.
Weirdly, the boarding school in Reigate is in fact a state school.
Unfortunately, I doubt if Labour would be any better in government. There is, as @cyclefree puts it, no good reason to vote for this government, other than to prevent Labour from getting an overwhelming majority.
Blair's lowest polling lead pre GE97 was a 42/37 lead for ICM on 21/4/97.
That'll do for me.
(Now where did I put that balsamic glaze?)
''https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Headmasters'_and_Headmistresses'_Conference
Starmer's old school, Reigate grammar, is an HMC school
On your first sentence, I (and I'm sure all the other educationalists on here) have absolutely loads of ideas on how to improve state schools further (most are already pretty good). We wouldn't all agree on every detail, but as a starting point I suspect even better teaching, improved management, less DfE interference, and smaller class sizes would achieve a pretty high degree of consensus.
She’s from Western Ukraine though. Things are tough but it’s still home. If she were from Donbass it might be very different. Generally, for people from the West of the country, it seems Poland is the most popular landing place. There are big cultural and family ties
across the border. The food is pretty much identical.
The other three ideas seem sensible although how you get ‘improved management’ in practice is a difficult one.
Higher rate goes from 41% to 42% (rest of UK: 40%)
Top rate goes from 46% to 47% (rest of UK: 45%)
And higher rate continues to start at £43,663 (rest of UK: £50,270)
Plus Scotland continues to have 3 basic rates: 19%, 20% and 21% - which have overall effect that anyone earning over approx £28k is paying 1% extra on excess over £28k.
It all adds up so that in Scotland:
- On £50k earnings you pay £1,552 more than in rest of UK
- On £150k earnings you pay £3,857 more than in rest of UK
Not huge differences but starting to be fairly noticeable.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-63988944
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/General-Election-1918-W-O-Lewis-Politics-Pin-Badge-Bar-L48B-/115641834284?&_trksid=p2056016.l4276
https://www.1lurer.am/en/2022/08/29/Inside-Liz-Truss’s-not-so-special-relationship-with-US/785199
When the UK’s newly appointed foreign secretary, Liz Truss, met her US counterpart Antony Blinken for the first time last September, the conversation was far from diplomatic, Financial Times reports.
According to people briefed on the discussion, Truss questioned the special relationship between the two countries — a concept that has underpinned the US-UK alliance since the phrase was popularised by Britain’s wartime prime minister Winston Churchill in the 1940s.
Truss said she had seen few tangible examples to support the idea that the relationship was particularly unique, one of the people said, citing Britain’s better trade relations with Canada, Japan and Mexico, as well as a dispute over steel tariffs with the US. “Her attitude was ‘what have you done for me lately?’,” the person said.
This F-35B (STOL) at Fort Worth had a problem. I’m not certain but it appears to me that the pilot couldn’t stop the thrust once it flipped over. The ground ejection was very impressive.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1603469985585762313
So why did I rate the comprehensive school, and why did students in my year achieve so highly?
I arrived in 1973, the second year as a comprehensive. It had previously been a high achieving secondary modern. It is true it was in a good catchment area, but it still is, and the success rates are no longer so great. The school is Woodrush in Wythall/Hollywood, in the Bromsgrove LA, but now an academy and the tragedy is each morning children are catching the bus to Alcester Grammar School in grammar school loving Warwickshire. Back in my day, they wouldn't need to. Oh well.
So why did it work? There was the political will to make comprehensives work so it was properly funded. It wasn't managed by the CEO of an academy trust group on £250,000 a year. It was managed by the Head and team of Deputies under the eye of Worcestershire, later Hereford and Worcester, CC. As far as was possible, key subjects were streamed into ability groups. In theory someone good at maths could be in set one and poor at English in set seven. A bit of an effort there from the timetabler. The head, deputies and staff were enthusiastic and many of the teaching staff in the first decade of their careers. Promotion was regularly from within and the teachers stayed a long time. It was also sport, music, drama and club orientated. Clubs were run during lunchtime and evenings ( at grammar school they were on Wednesday afternoon) It had an excellent reputation as the best state rugby school in the area ( the Leys High School in Redditch ran us close) and an old boys rugby club was set up and thrives today no longer with a connection to the school. When the head from my time retired circa 1990 he was replaced by a "journeyman" headmistress who immediately took rugby off the sports curriculum.
If there is the political will to make a comprehensive school work, it can work. My boys went to an excellent catholic comprehensive in Barry. Funded by the LA and the Catholic church and a dedicated and run by an excellent fair-minded disciplinarian head.