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Remember how Truss’s Tories were doing before the Kwartang Budget? – politicalbetting.com

2

Comments

  • Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Chris said:

    Is it just me, or has Dominic Raab's hair turned white overnight, à la Marie Antoinette?

    Frost? (the weather thing, not the Lord)

    Or Brexit induced shortages of Just For Men?
    Wasn't Just for Men a 1970s / 1980s porn magazine? Why name a hair camouflage product after it? Potentially owned back then by Paul Raymond. Perhaps someone needs to publish a Revue.

    (None of these being my subject area, of course.)
    Men Only, surely, from very dim memories of it being flashed (so to speak) around by classmates at school?

    It would be unkind to inquire if you were too busy not reading the words, so I won't.
    Back in the late 60s, my mum and her best friend would give each other home perms every few weeks.
    The product they used was called "Twink".
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,869

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    On topic - the single biggest reason to vote Tory is to keep Labour out. (The reverse is also true). I'd argue that there is less reason for potential Tory voters to want to keep Labour out than any time since 2001. Indeed, for my tastes, there is less reason to want to keep Labour out than any time since long before I could vote.
    That's not to say I'm suddenly all enthusiastic about Labour. I'm still wary of their hard-left core; still suspicious of their constant clamour for more and harder lockdowns during covid, still alarmed by their wokery. But this no longer feels like the core of their offer. I would have crawled over broken glass to cast a vote to keep Jeremy Corbyn out of power. (In fact, I will tell you the lengths I went to keep Corbyn out of power: I voted for a party led by Boris Johnson.) I probably won't vote Labour, but am I motivated enough to vote to keep them out? Probably not.

    I therefore don't see don't knows returning to the Tory fold in the way they have in previous elections.

    My theory - which I trot out periodically - is that the size of the Tory vote at general elections is highly correlated with the scariness of the Labour Party.

    This is a bit cynical. How about voting for positive reasons?
    This is what I'll be seeking to do. Tories Out is strong in my breast but there will be some good stuff in the Labour manifesto for me to be enthused about. Plus I'm starting to rate Starmer quite high on the general out of 10 apolitical PMness scale. He's a 7 and climbing. This is excellent after what we've had in recent years.
    Honest question: what do you expect to be there to enthuse you?
    Well there's ending private school tax breaks. That's there now and, for me, very important. I'd have been sorely disappointed if they'd flunked that.

    Another? I'll be looking for state direction of investment into green and infrastructure. In size. (as we used to say on the trading floor to indicate we weren't messing around)
    Hmmm.

    I see no prospect that messing about with Independent Schools will save any money whatsoever for the State. Even leaving aside the extra cost imposed by driving people out of the sector who can no longer afford it by missing holidays, decent cars and so on, it will still risk liquidating the support given to the state sector and students by independent schools - which itself is worth an amount not far off the alleged extra revenue.

    It looks to me that his attack on independent education is a populist ideological bone that Starmer is throwing to his dogs. Childrens' education will be the collateral damage.

    The Green Investment one is interesting. Will need very careful targeting. We already have a high proportion of houses insulated, for example, and almost all double glazed. And investment in green energy at scale has been in place for many years, and is policy of all parties.

    He can correctly claim that the Tories have been hamstrung by ideology, but it is a minefield. One opportunity is to drive solar on housing, but even the recent growth has seen phalanxes of chancers getting into the space. A rushed Govt scheme will just tip money away, as solar panel subsidies did in 2012-14 until they were cut back.
    I'm a dog, am I? Charming.
    It's also worth considering that the Green investment will suffer from the usual attempts to pick solutions. Arguably, this has already happened, with the emphasis on offshore wind.

    One thing that I find fairly constant in talking to politicians - they find the idea of simply setting the correct incentives and then tuning them to the results "inefficient".

    So, rather than, say, offering structure tax breaks/subsidies for building zero carbon power sources with certain characteristics (reliability, environmental impact, lifespan, inherent storage etc), they want "Onshore wind - NOW", "No tidal"

    Often this is based not on analysis, but who got to them last with a plausible pitch. I sold one on oil from ground nuts replacing petrol.....
    Yes, we need huge Green investment, but I hate the idea of government picking winners. What's wrong with simply winding up the tax on carbon and letting the market do the rest? The additional income could then be used to increase spending / lower taxes / reduce borrowing according to your particular flavour of politics.
    I wouldn't use carbon tax income to increase spending or cut taxes, because it would create a fiscal problem when use of carbon is reduced.

    James Hansen proposed disbursing all the proceeds of a carbon tax to the citizens of a country on at an equal rate per head. This then creates an inventive for citizens to invest in new technology, or to make personal lifestyle changes, and receive more as a dividend from the carbon tax than they spend on the tax themselves.
    Carbon credits - producers of CO2 have to buy them. Net Zero producers can create them. So CO2producers have to buy them from the non CO2 producers. For example, a car company building EVs creates credits which are bought by ICE manufacturers.

    So CO2 becomes a cost for CO2 producers and a subsidy for the the replacement technologies.

    This type of scheme already exists around the world and works.

    It avoids the problem of the government becoming addicted to carbon in the way that governments became addicted to nicotine.
    You have to be net negative rather than just net zero in order to be in a position to sell credits. So, applying carbon capture to biogenic CO2 (such as at an Energy from Waste plant, where around half the CO2 is biogenic), or direct air capture (argghhh!) would do the trick.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,260
    stodge said:

    DJ41 said:


    "Time of great change" and "New" were getting funnelled into tens of millions of minds during those few weeks.

    If the headlines had been "Queen goes rollerblading after recovering from minor cold", the Daily Mail's fulsome praise for Truss's "genuine Tory budget" may have been successful and the Tories may not have sunk so far behind Labour in the polls.

    The fundamental misjudgement in the Truss/Kwarteng economic plan is it failed the "fairness" test. Kwarteng's proposals looked to make very rich people even richer while doing little or nothing for those in the middle (granted there was some help for the poorest).

    One of the societal changes brought by the pandemic has been to accentuate this notion of "fairness". Now, that will mean different things to different people but essentially, and in crude terms, it means "if I have to feel the pain, so does everybody else". The problem with anything approaching above-inflation wage rises in the private sector is the message it sends to the public sector.

    When you are offered 4% and you see someone else getting 10% exhortations to accept the 4% aren't going to butter any parsnips (to paraphrase John Major). Today's City AM for example is full of such anti-Union rhetoric but the figures continue to suggest private sector wages running ahead of public sector though I suppose this is led by wage demands in sectors with critical skill shortages.
    And it looks like we've given up on all the 'rebalancing' business and we're back to lubing up the City to keep the show on the road. Ah well. Maybe any other way is just too difficult.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    Nigelb said:

    Leaving aside the adequacy of this particular implementation, which seems to be disputed, how long will it be before these replace price comparison websites ?

    Here it is! The first ever Comcast bill negotiated 100% with A.I and LLMs. Our
    @DoNotPay ChatGPT bot talks to Comcast Chat to save one of our engineers $120 a year on their Internet bill.

    Will be publicly available soon and work on online forms, chat and email.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/jbrowder1/status/1602353465753309195

    Imagine having one you could set loose on HMRC...

    "New law passed to prohibit AI/chatbot negotiators"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,025
    edited December 2022
    kinabalu said:

    stodge said:

    DJ41 said:


    "Time of great change" and "New" were getting funnelled into tens of millions of minds during those few weeks.

    If the headlines had been "Queen goes rollerblading after recovering from minor cold", the Daily Mail's fulsome praise for Truss's "genuine Tory budget" may have been successful and the Tories may not have sunk so far behind Labour in the polls.

    The fundamental misjudgement in the Truss/Kwarteng economic plan is it failed the "fairness" test. Kwarteng's proposals looked to make very rich people even richer while doing little or nothing for those in the middle (granted there was some help for the poorest).

    One of the societal changes brought by the pandemic has been to accentuate this notion of "fairness". Now, that will mean different things to different people but essentially, and in crude terms, it means "if I have to feel the pain, so does everybody else". The problem with anything approaching above-inflation wage rises in the private sector is the message it sends to the public sector.

    When you are offered 4% and you see someone else getting 10% exhortations to accept the 4% aren't going to butter any parsnips (to paraphrase John Major). Today's City AM for example is full of such anti-Union rhetoric but the figures continue to suggest private sector wages running ahead of public sector though I suppose this is led by wage demands in sectors with critical skill shortages.
    And it looks like we've given up on all the 'rebalancing' business and we're back to lubing up the City to keep the show on the road. Ah well. Maybe any other way is just too difficult.
    The creation of the new mine in Cumbria and the well paid jobs that follows suggests otherwise.

    It was pensioners and private sector working class redwall voters who switched to the Tories in 2019 on the whole anyway, not the public sector.

    So increasing private sector taxes to give more to generally Labour voting public sector workers is not something the Tories are going to do, even if Labour might
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,260

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Chris said:

    Is it just me, or has Dominic Raab's hair turned white overnight, à la Marie Antoinette?

    Frost? (the weather thing, not the Lord)

    Or Brexit induced shortages of Just For Men?
    Wasn't Just for Men a 1970s / 1980s porn magazine? Why name a hair camouflage product after it? Potentially owned back then by Paul Raymond. Perhaps someone needs to publish a Revue.

    (None of these being my subject area, of course.)
    Men Only, surely, from very dim memories of it being flashed (so to speak) around by classmates at school?

    It would be unkind to inquire if you were too busy not reading the words, so I won't.
    Back in the late 60s, my mum and her best friend would give each other home perms every few weeks.
    The product they used was called "Twink".
    My granny used to wash her hair in Mackeson Stout.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,528
    kinabalu said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Selebian said:

    Chris said:

    Is it just me, or has Dominic Raab's hair turned white overnight, à la Marie Antoinette?

    Frost? (the weather thing, not the Lord)

    Or Brexit induced shortages of Just For Men?
    Wasn't Just for Men a 1970s / 1980s porn magazine? Why name a hair camouflage product after it? Potentially owned back then by Paul Raymond. Perhaps someone needs to publish a Revue.

    (None of these being my subject area, of course.)
    Men Only, surely, from very dim memories of it being flashed (so to speak) around by classmates at school?

    It would be unkind to inquire if you were too busy not reading the words, so I won't.
    Back in the late 60s, my mum and her best friend would give each other home perms every few weeks.
    The product they used was called "Twink".
    My granny used to wash her hair in Mackeson Stout.
    That used to be a thing. As a toddler in the 1940s my hair was washed with stout (and shampoo).

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,869
    Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455
    edited December 2022
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    stodge said:

    DJ41 said:


    "Time of great change" and "New" were getting funnelled into tens of millions of minds during those few weeks.

    If the headlines had been "Queen goes rollerblading after recovering from minor cold", the Daily Mail's fulsome praise for Truss's "genuine Tory budget" may have been successful and the Tories may not have sunk so far behind Labour in the polls.

    The fundamental misjudgement in the Truss/Kwarteng economic plan is it failed the "fairness" test. Kwarteng's proposals looked to make very rich people even richer while doing little or nothing for those in the middle (granted there was some help for the poorest).

    One of the societal changes brought by the pandemic has been to accentuate this notion of "fairness". Now, that will mean different things to different people but essentially, and in crude terms, it means "if I have to feel the pain, so does everybody else". The problem with anything approaching above-inflation wage rises in the private sector is the message it sends to the public sector.

    When you are offered 4% and you see someone else getting 10% exhortations to accept the 4% aren't going to butter any parsnips (to paraphrase John Major). Today's City AM for example is full of such anti-Union rhetoric but the figures continue to suggest private sector wages running ahead of public sector though I suppose this is led by wage demands in sectors with critical skill shortages.
    And it looks like we've given up on all the 'rebalancing' business and we're back to lubing up the City to keep the show on the road. Ah well. Maybe any other way is just too difficult.
    The creation of the new mine in Cumbria and the well paid jobs that follows suggests otherwise.

    It was pensioners and private sector working class redwall voters who switched to the Tories in 2019 on the whole anyway, not the public sector.

    So increasing private sector taxes to give more to generally Labour voting public sector workers is not something the Tories are going to do, even if Labour might
    As opposed to increasing taxes to give money to Tory members, donors and their chums for [edit] goodies such as unusable PPE. I see. Quite an important difference there.
  • Nigelb said:

    Away from ruminating and marvelling at the beauty of Eva Kaili, and back on topic, I'm wondering about these reduced Labour poll leads at the moment. What's causing them ? We should, as people have said, be getting higher poll leads from Labour if people are suffering with the weather and higher heating bills at the moment, which should also be shading into a general perception of struggling amid the cost of living crisis. Perhaps these effects will take time to feed through ? Or perhaps there's something different going on.

    MoonRabbit I know is particularly interested in this topic, so perhaps she has something to contribute on it.

    The beauty of Eva Kaili ?
    The shockingly beautiful but apparently sadly corrupt vice-president of the EU parliament, who was arrested today, if I have the story right.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-parliament-expel-vice-president-eva-kaili/
    In unrelated news:-

    LONDON — British MPs have defended taking gifts paid for by the Qatari government as a corruption scandal in Brussels shines the spotlight on lobbying by the country ahead of the World Cup.

    The Qatari government spent more than £260,000 in gifts, hospitality and travel on British MPs since October last year.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-mps-defend-accepting-260000-in-qatari-gifts-before-world-cup/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,632

    Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.

    For drinking or cooking?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,607

    Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.

    I always knew you were a Modena man.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,511
    edited December 2022

    Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.

    Orgasmic balsanic glaze
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Driver said:

    FPT - my first instinct with any debt is to pay it off.

    I couldn't wait to pay off my student loan (only £12.5k) and that didn't happen until I was 29 years old.

    Despite the rhetoric about "value" and write-offs 30 years hence it would drive me silly to pay an extra 9% tax for most of my life for the sake of a 60k debt.

    I'd probably prefer to add it to my mortgage or something.

    I see you've fallen into the politicians' trap of seeing it as a debt.
    For him, it was and still would be a debt.

    It's only for the 98% of graduates who can't ever to hope to earn six figures that it isn't.

    And for those of us who went to university before 9k pa fees, it always was.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,511
    carnforth said:

    dixiedean said:

    DJ41 said:

    On topic, I miss the heady days of the Special Fiscal Operation, thinking Lordy, this is terrible and then getting that notification on my iPhone from The Times that the YouGov was giving Labour a 33% lead.

    It was quite a call with Mike telling him about that poll.

    Then the days after, confirmation that it wasn't an outlier.

    "Time of great change" and "New" were getting funnelled into tens of millions of minds during those few weeks.

    If the headlines had been "Queen goes rollerblading after recovering from minor cold", the Daily Mail's fulsome praise for Truss's "genuine Tory budget" may have been successful and the Tories may not have sunk so far behind Labour in the polls.
    So the markets would have been sanguine had the Queen not died?
    Were it not for the pensions doom-loop caused by LDI, the market jitters may have passed, and Truss may have survived. We shall never know...
    I think this is pretty likely.
  • Is “Lady” (boke) (Michelle) Mone OBE (Con) in police custody yet?
  • https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/14/twitter-elon-musk-private-jet-account-suspended

    Turns out that Musk's commitment to free speech isn't absolute. What a surprise.
  • Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.

    I wonder if the organic thing will survive this depression.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,075

    Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.

    I wonder if the organic thing will survive this depression.
    What would inorganic balsamic glaze be like?

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455
    algarkirk said:

    Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.

    I wonder if the organic thing will survive this depression.
    What would inorganic balsamic glaze be like?

    Impure sodium chloride solution in water, just about.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,511

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/14/twitter-elon-musk-private-jet-account-suspended

    Turns out that Musk's commitment to free speech isn't absolute. What a surprise.

    Right to feee speech or right to stalk / impede personal security? If this person was tracking your public movements and broadcasting them to the world on Twitter, I guarantee you’d be the first demanding Twitter block the account.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,632

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/14/twitter-elon-musk-private-jet-account-suspended

    Turns out that Musk's commitment to free speech isn't absolute. What a surprise.

    Freedom is precious. So precious Musk is rationing it.

    With apologies to the ghost of whoever attributed that to Lenin.
  • ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,632

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,869
    algarkirk said:

    Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.

    I wonder if the organic thing will survive this depression.
    What would inorganic balsamic glaze be like?

    Cheaper.
  • moonshine said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/dec/14/twitter-elon-musk-private-jet-account-suspended

    Turns out that Musk's commitment to free speech isn't absolute. What a surprise.

    Right to feee speech or right to stalk / impede personal security? If this person was tracking your public movements and broadcasting them to the world on Twitter, I guarantee you’d be the first demanding Twitter block the account.
    Not his movements, his jet.

    Aviation movement is public domain in general and trackable for reasona linked to aviation.

    Movement on foot, in cars etc is not.
  • ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500

    Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.

    I wonder if the organic thing will survive this depression.
    I look down every morning and hope so.
  • ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    Strictly speaking four people have.

    What's the proverb about a fool and their money?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500

    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    Strictly speaking four people have.

    What's the proverb about a fool and their money?
    They went to see a pea green goat. Somehow honey gets into it too.
  • ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    Strictly speaking four people have.

    What's the proverb about a fool and their money?
    I think it was 4 organisations in US
  • Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    Strictly speaking four people have.

    What's the proverb about a fool and their money?
    They went to see a pea green goat. Somehow honey gets into it too.
    Pea green goat with honey?

    Is Heston Blumenthal doing the catering?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,500

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    Strictly speaking four people have.

    What's the proverb about a fool and their money?
    They went to see a pea green goat. Somehow honey gets into it too.
    Pea green goat with honey?

    Is Heston Blumenthal doing the catering?
    I may have conflated matters, I've done it all my life.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,632

    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    A phrase about fools and their money springs to mind.
  • London cops break into gallery to rescue lifelike art installation
    'Kristina' is a sculpture of a woman with her face in a bowl of soup

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/12/14/police_rescue_sculpture/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,582
    Goal!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,272
    Sets up a good game now.
    Or a walkover. One of the two.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,847
    edited December 2022
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Away from ruminating and marvelling at the beauty of Eva Kaili, and back on topic, I'm wondering about these reduced Labour poll leads at the moment. What's causing them ? We should, as people have said, be getting higher poll leads from Labour if people are suffering with the weather and higher heating bills at the moment, which should also be shading into a general perception of struggling amid the cost of living crisis. Perhaps these effects will take time to feed through ? Or perhaps there's something different going on.

    MoonRabbit I know is particularly interested in this topic, so perhaps she has something to contribute on it.

    The beauty of Eva Kaili ?
    The shockingly beautiful but apparently sadly corrupt vice-president of the EU parliament, who was arrested today, if I have the story right.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-parliament-expel-vice-president-eva-kaili/
    Really quite outrageous to arrest corrupt politicians. Here we wrap them in Ermine and give them a fancy title.
    There is quite a curious parallel with the quite physically attractive Lady Mone, isn't there ; perhaps looks both open doors and covey a sense of impunity both to the viewer and the holder of them ; maybe something like that. Jonathan Aitken and Max Mosely may be male equivalents.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Lots of people. It usually seems to be bankers, even with ex leaders who are not known for being dynamic speakers and may have no known insights on the topic at hand. So purely a power move, 'see who we got!'.

    It's grubby, and dumb, but there are much worse ways for them to rake it in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Away from ruminating and marvelling at the beauty of Eva Kaili, and back on topic, I'm wondering about these reduced Labour poll leads at the moment. What's causing them ? We should, as people have said, be getting higher poll leads from Labour if people are suffering with the weather and higher heating bills at the moment, which should also be shading into a general perception of struggling amid the cost of living crisis. Perhaps these effects will take time to feed through ? Or perhaps there's something different going on.

    MoonRabbit I know is particularly interested in this topic, so perhaps she has something to contribute on it.

    The beauty of Eva Kaili ?
    The shockingly beautiful but apparently sadly corrupt vice-president of the EU parliament, who was arrested today, if I have the story right.

    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-parliament-expel-vice-president-eva-kaili/
    Really quite outrageous to arrest corrupt politicians. Here we wrap them in Ermine and give them a fancy title.
    There is quite a curious parallel with the quite physically attractive Lady Mone, isn't there ; perhaps looks both open doors and covey a sense of impunity both to the viewer and the holder of them ; maybe something like that.
    Elizabeth Holmes seemed to charm people as an attractive young person spouting bullshit.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,271

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    If I lived in Uxbridge I'd take a pretty dim view of my MP being either on holiday or away making speeches, and neglecting his constituents.

    Mind you, I don't live in Uxbridge and I still take a pretty dim view.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 17,450
    "ian bremmer
    @ianbremmer
    after nearly a year of invasion, president zelensky tells a joke about the war.

    a pretty good one, actually.
    "
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1603093091245858816
    (Links to video with subtitles)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    I'm wondering if Theresa May is finding her speaking engagements drying up now that Boris is back on the scene.

    I assume Truss will stick to Vine, if it still exists, or Cameo.
  • ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    If I lived in Uxbridge I'd take a pretty dim view of my MP being either on holiday or away making speeches, and neglecting his constituents.

    Mind you, I don't live in Uxbridge and I still take a pretty dim view.
    Fair point here.

    Most right thinking people agree that what Matt Hancock did was unacceptable whoring for money and attention.

    But Boris's antics are OK?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,688

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    If I lived in Uxbridge I'd take a pretty dim view of my MP being either on holiday or away making speeches, and neglecting his constituents.
    If you lived in Uxbridge, I'd advise you to be careful what you wish for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    If I lived in Uxbridge I'd take a pretty dim view of my MP being either on holiday or away making speeches, and neglecting his constituents.

    Mind you, I don't live in Uxbridge and I still take a pretty dim view.
    Fair point here.

    Most right thinking people agree that what Matt Hancock did was unacceptable whoring for money and attention.

    But Boris's antics are OK?
    In theory, someone whoring themselves out for money is immediately contactable in an urgent situation. Committing to being away for weeks, even if you would leave if there was an emergency, is of a slightly different kind to that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,977
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    A phrase about fools and their money springs to mind.
    That they always seem to have money to faff, so must be doing fine, unfortunately?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,632

    London cops break into gallery to rescue lifelike art installation
    'Kristina' is a sculpture of a woman with her face in a bowl of soup

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/12/14/police_rescue_sculpture/

    What's the difference between an intelligent officer of the Met, and the Loch Ness Monster?

    Some people claim to have seen Nessie.
  • kle4 said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    If I lived in Uxbridge I'd take a pretty dim view of my MP being either on holiday or away making speeches, and neglecting his constituents.

    Mind you, I don't live in Uxbridge and I still take a pretty dim view.
    Fair point here.

    Most right thinking people agree that what Matt Hancock did was unacceptable whoring for money and attention.

    But Boris's antics are OK?
    In theory, someone whoring themselves out for money is immediately contactable in an urgent situation. Committing to being away for weeks, even if you would leave if there was an emergency, is of a slightly different kind to that.
    In theory, fair enough, though the practical difference is pretty minimal. After all, Boris was on holiday during the collapse of Truss.

    There's a decent alt-history; What If Boris had been in London that week?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    edited December 2022
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    A phrase about fools and their money springs to mind.
    I wouldn't pay the f***** in washers to hear him speak. Mind you I'd pay good money to avoid one of his speeches.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,632

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    A phrase about fools and their money springs to mind.
    I wouldn't pay the f***** in washers to hear him speak. Mind you I'd pay good money to avoid one of his speeches.
    I'd pay to hear him speak as long as I could heckle all the way through.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    Seems many will
    A phrase about fools and their money springs to mind.
    I wouldn't pay the f***** in washers to hear him speak. Mind you I'd pay good money to avoid one of his speeches.
    I'd pay to hear him speak as long as I could heckle all the way through.
    I'd pay to hear you heckle.

    "Professional Heckler". There's a career to conjure with, if only in a G+S opera.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,741

    kle4 said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    If I lived in Uxbridge I'd take a pretty dim view of my MP being either on holiday or away making speeches, and neglecting his constituents.

    Mind you, I don't live in Uxbridge and I still take a pretty dim view.
    Fair point here.

    Most right thinking people agree that what Matt Hancock did was unacceptable whoring for money and attention.

    But Boris's antics are OK?
    In theory, someone whoring themselves out for money is immediately contactable in an urgent situation. Committing to being away for weeks, even if you would leave if there was an emergency, is of a slightly different kind to that.
    In theory, fair enough, though the practical difference is pretty minimal. After all, Boris was on holiday during the collapse of Truss.

    There's a decent alt-history; What If Boris had been in London that week?
    Indeed, there is a sweet tragedy in Johnson skiving out of the country at the moment his opportunity came, so he missed it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    This is a great end to end game.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,741

    This is a great end to end game.

    France should have had at least one more, might regret that.

    An early goal has made the game more interesting.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,026
    ydoethur said:

    ITV report Boris has made over 1 million in 4 speeches since leaving office

    I misread that as 'made 1 million and 4 speeches.'

    Which struck me as quite a lot in four months.

    But the truth is still worse. What imbecile would pay over 250k for awkward lines badly delivered about Kermit the Frog and Peppa Pig?
    "over 1 million and 4" would also be a delicious combination of precise and imprecise. One would assume it meant 1,000,005, but it would be impossible to be sure.
    I know I'm speculating about a misread headline here, but I'menjoying myself tremendously doing so.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551
    Foxy said:

    This is a great end to end game.

    France should have had at least one more, might regret that.

    An early goal has made the game more interesting.
    Fantastic overhead kick only saved by Lloris's fingertips. Morocco look likely to score. Which is more than we did without penalties.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,582
    A slower Loris and this match would be even.
  • Driver said:

    FPT - my first instinct with any debt is to pay it off.

    I couldn't wait to pay off my student loan (only £12.5k) and that didn't happen until I was 29 years old.

    Despite the rhetoric about "value" and write-offs 30 years hence it would drive me silly to pay an extra 9% tax for most of my life for the sake of a 60k debt.

    I'd probably prefer to add it to my mortgage or something.

    I see you've fallen into the politicians' trap of seeing it as a debt.
    It is a debt.

    This isn't a trap. For as long as the debt isn't paid you pay an extra 9% tax each year.
  • I'm in the middle of a couple of days off (so no blacklegging today) (I do hope that's not racist just because it's got black in it), and have have been so enjoying the mild conditions in my house

    I've kind of got used to the sub zero temperatures outside over the last week or so, having worked ten to twelve hours mostly outdoors each day except Sunday

    Even on my days off I get up early and walk my folks' dog from when it gets light for about an hour and half, whatever the weather

    I may be imagining it, but I think the worse the weather and the more I walk the dog, the better the wine my Dad gives me
  • IF anyone's missing links to NPR Music Tiny Desk Concerts, check out Mariachi Flor De Toloache

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rl26QKPHtE
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,741
    IanB2 said:

    A slower Loris and this match would be even.

    I expect he is the prime mate of everyone in the team for that save.
  • IF anyone's missing links to NPR Music Tiny Desk Concerts, check out Mariachi Flor De Toloache

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rl26QKPHtE

    I think she sounds quite a lot like Amy Winehouse
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,741

    Driver said:

    FPT - my first instinct with any debt is to pay it off.

    I couldn't wait to pay off my student loan (only £12.5k) and that didn't happen until I was 29 years old.

    Despite the rhetoric about "value" and write-offs 30 years hence it would drive me silly to pay an extra 9% tax for most of my life for the sake of a 60k debt.

    I'd probably prefer to add it to my mortgage or something.

    I see you've fallen into the politicians' trap of seeing it as a debt.
    It is a debt.

    This isn't a trap. For as long as the debt isn't paid you pay an extra 9% tax each year.
    Quite a lot of interest accumulates too.

    Though if there is a reform of Student finance that writes a lot of the debt off, would feel foolish having paid it off.
  • Heh.


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,524
    edited December 2022
    Thoughts and prayers for the banking sector, we are also victims of Putin's war.

    Goldman Sachs bankers are reportedly at risk of having their bonus pool slashed by up to 40%, in what could be the lender’s largest cut to payouts since the 2008 financial crisis.

    The bank is still in the process of deciding the size of its bonus pools for 2022, but the prospective cut could mean its 3,000 investment bankers endure the most significant drop in variable pay among their peers, according to the Financial Times, which first reported the news.

    Other major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, are also reportedly considering cutting their pay for bankers by roughly a third.

    Investment banks have recorded a drop in demand this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which rattled global markets, and made companies more cautious about pursuing corporate deals and raising money on the financial markets, for fear their shares or debts would be undervalued.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/14/goldman-sachs-bankers-brace-for-hefty-cut-to-bonuses
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,260

    This is a great end to end game.

    Yes Morocco have surprised me. France Argentina is the quality final but I'm kind of rooting for them.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,847
    edited December 2022

    Thoughts and prayers for the banking sector, we are also victims of Putin's war.

    Goldman Sachs bankers are reportedly at risk of having their bonus pool slashed by up to 40%, in what could be the lender’s largest cut to payouts since the 2008 financial crisis.

    The bank is still in the process of deciding the size of its bonus pools for 2022, but the prospective cut could mean its 3,000 investment bankers endure the most significant drop in variable pay among their peers, according to the Financial Times, which first reported the news.

    Other major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, are also reportedly considering cutting their pay for bankers by roughly a third.

    Investment banks have recorded a drop in demand this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which rattled global markets, and made companies more cautious about pursuing corporate deals and raising money on the financial markets, for fear their shares or debts would be undervalued.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/14/goldman-sachs-bankers-brace-for-hefty-cut-to-bonuses

    Poor darlings ! Maybe Qatar can somehow help, via Lady Mone, Matt Hancock, Bernie Madoff and Lady Eva.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,534
    kle4 said:

    I'm wondering if Theresa May is finding her speaking engagements drying up now that Boris is back on the scene.

    I assume Truss will stick to Vine, if it still exists, or Cameo.

    She's all over the ICQ.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,358
    No card? Some referees might have given a red for that, shoving a player out the way.
  • Thoughts and prayers for the banking sector, we are also victims of Putin's war.

    Goldman Sachs bankers are reportedly at risk of having their bonus pool slashed by up to 40%, in what could be the lender’s largest cut to payouts since the 2008 financial crisis.

    The bank is still in the process of deciding the size of its bonus pools for 2022, but the prospective cut could mean its 3,000 investment bankers endure the most significant drop in variable pay among their peers, according to the Financial Times, which first reported the news.

    Other major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, are also reportedly considering cutting their pay for bankers by roughly a third.

    Investment banks have recorded a drop in demand this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which rattled global markets, and made companies more cautious about pursuing corporate deals and raising money on the financial markets, for fear their shares or debts would be undervalued.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/14/goldman-sachs-bankers-brace-for-hefty-cut-to-bonuses

    Was it worth taking the political hit to uncap bankers' bonuses?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,534

    Off topic, PBers will be comforted to know that I have just opened a new bottle of organic balsamic glaze.

    Somewhat related - I've discovered that salmon goes very well with black garlic butter mash.

    I'll see you all on the other side of this food-coma.
  • Thoughts and prayers for the banking sector, we are also victims of Putin's war.

    Goldman Sachs bankers are reportedly at risk of having their bonus pool slashed by up to 40%, in what could be the lender’s largest cut to payouts since the 2008 financial crisis.

    The bank is still in the process of deciding the size of its bonus pools for 2022, but the prospective cut could mean its 3,000 investment bankers endure the most significant drop in variable pay among their peers, according to the Financial Times, which first reported the news.

    Other major Wall Street banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup, are also reportedly considering cutting their pay for bankers by roughly a third.

    Investment banks have recorded a drop in demand this year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which rattled global markets, and made companies more cautious about pursuing corporate deals and raising money on the financial markets, for fear their shares or debts would be undervalued.


    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/dec/14/goldman-sachs-bankers-brace-for-hefty-cut-to-bonuses

    Was it worth taking the political hit to uncap bankers' bonuses?
    Not in this economical environment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,524
    edited December 2022
    Come on Morocco, save me from the ultimate Kobayashi Maru of having to choose between France and Argentina.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,528
    Super semi final. Great Moroccan inventiveness, pity about their finishing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,632

    Come on Morocco, save me from the ultimate Sophie's choice of having to choose between France and Argentina.

    No man dy serves that choice.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455
    ydoethur said:

    London cops break into gallery to rescue lifelike art installation
    'Kristina' is a sculpture of a woman with her face in a bowl of soup

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/12/14/police_rescue_sculpture/

    What's the difference between an intelligent officer of the Met, and the Loch Ness Monster?

    Some people claim to have seen Nessie.
    Don't complain. Naturalistic modern art is a very rare beastie. It's the equivalent of seeing a plesiosaur in Loch Ness, or a Megalosaurus on that steep bit somewhere near Ludgate.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CjlE4V-IXXo/
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,528
    Emmanuel is pleased.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,632
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    London cops break into gallery to rescue lifelike art installation
    'Kristina' is a sculpture of a woman with her face in a bowl of soup

    https://www.theregister.com/2022/12/14/police_rescue_sculpture/

    What's the difference between an intelligent officer of the Met, and the Loch Ness Monster?

    Some people claim to have seen Nessie.
    Don't complain. Naturalistic modern art is a very rare beastie. It's the equivalent of seeing a plesiosaur in Loch Ness, or a Megalosaurus on that steep bit somewhere near Ludgate.

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CjlE4V-IXXo/
    Ok, to be fair that might well have fooled me too.

    I withdraw the remark about the Met officers* and substitute 'modern artist'.

    *that said, it's still a fair comment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    Some pass by Mbappe that
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,358
    Argentina or France?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,741
    Andy_JS said:

    Argentina or France?

    I reckon France.
  • Ban this sick filth.


  • Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Argentina or France?

    I reckon France.
    But Messi is the GOAT.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,528

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Argentina or France?

    I reckon France.
    But Messi is the GOAT.
    Capricious opinion.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,632
    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Argentina or France?

    I reckon France.
    But Messi is the GOAT.
    Capricious opinion.

    Butt possibly valid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,741

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Argentina or France?

    I reckon France.
    But Messi is the GOAT.
    Butt it is a team game.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,761
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Argentina or France?

    I reckon France.
    But Messi is the GOAT.
    Capricious opinion.

    Butt possibly valid.
    Hope you’re not going to be milking the puns again.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,528
    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Argentina or France?

    I reckon France.
    But Messi is the GOAT.
    Capricious opinion.

    Butt possibly valid.
    Ooh!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,330
    Morocco have given this a lot more of an effort than England did to be honest.
  • Ban this sick filth.


    Baked beans are disgusting, but the idea that they're particularly bad because of the kind of bread that they're on is daft
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455

    ydoethur said:

    geoffw said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Argentina or France?

    I reckon France.
    But Messi is the GOAT.
    Capricious opinion.

    Butt possibly valid.
    Hope you’re not going to be milking the puns again.
    He's kidding everyone.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455

    Ban this sick filth.


    Baked beans are disgusting, but the idea that they're particularly bad because of the kind of bread that they're on is daft
    Just posh beans on toast.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,741
    Carnyx said:

    Ban this sick filth.


    Baked beans are disgusting, but the idea that they're particularly bad because of the kind of bread that they're on is daft
    Just posh beans on toast.
    Posh?!?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,455
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Ban this sick filth.


    Baked beans are disgusting, but the idea that they're particularly bad because of the kind of bread that they're on is daft
    Just posh beans on toast.
    Posh?!?
    Yes, hand-pulled toast cooked in a pizza oven. Even posher than one of HYUFD's Approved Schools*.

    *Scotice, List D.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,607
    Striking demographic divisions in Canada, both on age and gender:

    image

    https://twitter.com/ipoliticsca/status/1603061608346968069
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 16,910
    Nigelb said:

    Pretty sure this will hold true in humans, too.

    A microbiome-dependent gut–brain pathway regulates motivation for exercise
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05525-z
    Exercise exerts a wide range of beneficial effects for healthy physiology1. However, the mechanisms regulating an individual’s motivation to engage in physical activity remain incompletely understood. An important factor stimulating the engagement in both competitive and recreational exercise is the motivating pleasure derived from prolonged physical activity, which is triggered by exercise-induced neurochemical changes in the brain. Here, we report on the discovery of a gut–brain connection in mice that enhances exercise performance by augmenting dopamine signalling during physical activity. We find that microbiome-dependent production of endocannabinoid metabolites in the gut stimulates the activity of TRPV1-expressing sensory neurons and thereby elevates dopamine levels in the ventral striatum during exercise. Stimulation of this pathway improves running performance, whereas microbiome depletion, peripheral endocannabinoid receptor inhibition, ablation of spinal afferent neurons or dopamine blockade abrogate exercise capacity. These findings indicate that the rewarding properties of exercise are influenced by gut-derived interoceptive circuits and provide a microbiome-dependent explanation for interindividual variability in exercise performance. Our study also suggests that interoceptomimetic molecules that stimulate the transmission of gut-derived signals to the brain may enhance the motivation for exercise...

    TRPV1 also the target for capsaicin (from chillies) so that’s piqued my interest. Some decent studies suggest eating spicy food 3 or 4 times a week is beneficial to overall health (reduced mortality).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,551

    Ban this sick filth.


    Baked beans are disgusting, but the idea that they're particularly bad because of the kind of bread that they're on is daft
    Baked beans (not Heinz) is the epicurean nourishment of the Gods, but without a fried egg atop. That is a vile combination.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,360
    Didier Deschamps - the youngest ever captain to win the champions league, with Marseille (the only French team to ever do it). Lifted the World Cup and the European Championship as captain, looking like he’s going to do it twice as a manager.

    But is he really any good?

    https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1603132436711632896
  • Ban this sick filth.


    Baked beans are disgusting, but the idea that they're particularly bad because of the kind of bread that they're on is daft
    Baked beans (not Heinz) is the epicurean nourishment of the Gods, but without a fried egg atop. That is a vile combination.
    When I said baked beans, I meant all tinned ones I’ve had the misfortune to try

    I quite like baking beans in a homemade sauce
This discussion has been closed.