Why I’m not convinced that LAB will get a majority – politicalbetting.com

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Why I’m not convinced that LAB will get a majority – politicalbetting.com

As can be seen in the betting chart above Labour is now rated as a 50% chance on the betting markets of winning an overall majority at the next election.

Read the full story here

Benpointer

First, like Labour

StuartDickson

Second, like Scottish Labour.

Benpointer

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

StuartDickson

🚨NEW Russia-Ukraine polling for @CNN

Right/wrong for Russia to use military force to keep Ukraine out of NATO?

🇷🇺Russians
Right 50%
Wrong 25%

🇺🇦Ukrainians
Right 13%
Wrong 70%

1,021 Russians and 1,075 Ukrainians, 7-15 Feb

https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1496484456009547778?s=46&t=10fdj-SkXR2mxWsFu5lBJg

Now that’s some challenging fieldwork!

dixiedean

FPT
We had a kid return on Monday after a two week suspension for assaulting a teacher and another pupil. They were supposed to come for an hour a day with 1 to 1 TA support to work on their own in isolation. Despite our objections.
No one was available. And no supply forthcoming.
So. They arrived, and were allowed to wander back to their class, and left there with the teacher and student they'd attacked. Teacher is still receiving medical treatment. The rest of the class, who'd witnessed this, got to see there aren't any consequences for actions.
It's not all about pay and conditions.
It's about everyone's safety too.

Benpointer

StuartDickson said:

🚨NEW Russia-Ukraine polling for @CNN

Right/wrong for Russia to use military force to keep Ukraine out of NATO?

🇷🇺Russians
Right 50%
Wrong 25%

🇺🇦Ukrainians
Right 13%
Wrong 70%

1,021 Russians and 1,075 Ukrainians, 7-15 Feb

https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1496484456009547778?s=46&t=10fdj-SkXR2mxWsFu5lBJg

Now that’s some challenging fieldwork!

"🚨NEW Russia-Ukraine polling for @CNN..."

"...7-15 Feb" ?

Richard_Nabavi

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Foxy

dixiedean said:

FPT
We had a kid return on Monday after a two week suspension for assaulting a teacher and another pupil. They were supposed to come for an hour a day with 1 to 1 TA support to work on their own in isolation. Despite our objections.
None was available. And no supply forthcoming.
So. They arrived, and were allowed to wander back to their class, and left there with the teacher and student they'd attacked. Teacher is still receiving medical treatment. The rest of the class, who'd witnessed this, got to see there aren't any consequences for actions.
It's not all about pay and conditions.
It's about everyone's safety too.

Presumably at the PRU he is already in the last chance saloon.

SandyRentool

We're not going to win a majority.

Scotland. It isn't 2005 any more.

dixiedean

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

I'd also be wary of using the betting markets as "evidence" of anything at all.
They've proved spectacularly incompetent at recent by-elections.
For this, much thanks.

londonpubman

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Absolutely. There has to be a BIG fall in CPI in 2023 maybe to no more than 3% by the end of 2023 for the government to regain any economic credibility. Not sure that will happen.

Benpointer

Re previous thread.

I understand that some people feel removing the private education VAT exemption is an assault on their liberty and tantamount to theft.

I just don't think very many people feel that way. It's the foxhunting du jour; I doubt it will sway a single seat.

ydoethur

dixiedean said:

FPT
We had a kid return on Monday after a two week suspension for assaulting a teacher and another pupil. They were supposed to come for an hour a day with 1 to 1 TA support to work on their own in isolation. Despite our objections.
No one was available. And no supply forthcoming.
So. They arrived, and were allowed to wander back to their class, and left there with the teacher and student they'd attacked. Teacher is still receiving medical treatment. The rest of the class, who'd witnessed this, got to see there aren't any consequences for actions.
It's not all about pay and conditions.
It's about everyone's safety too.

This is the kind of thing that bugged me (and we had similar cases at the last school I worked in). Assault causing injury is a criminal matter. Never mind being let back in. Why was the pupil concerned not arrested?

Because the police don’t give a flying fuck, that’s why. Violence, vandalism, even knife and drug crime in schools they seem to regard as Somebody Else’s Problem.

I did work in a school once that had a police officer on site supposedly to deal with this stuff, but since all he ever did was try to grope 14 year old girls he wasn’t exactly a reassuring presence for law and order.

ydoethur

londonpubman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Absolutely. There has to be a BIG fall in CPI in 2023 maybe to no more than 3% by the end of 2023 for the government to regain any economic credibility. Not sure that will happen.

Even if it did, prices would still be rising from a higher base. Without active deflation, we’re still going to be stuck with much higher bills for say, food.

MoonRabbit

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

It’s just sensible good politics to get this done on the eve of Christmas holidays, MPs heading to constituency’s. The difference between Sunak’s government digging the party out a hole, his PM predecessors, and like Starmer too, were poor at reading all the documents and being on top all the detail, so not delivering.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019. But they don’t count now, they are out the game - the next election is fought solely upon Sunak and Hunt’s record over the next two years, on migrant invasion, cost of living, and hospital waiting lists, and wether to dump Sunak and Hunt for Starmer and his team. This is how results like 1992 happen. This is reality of electoral politics.

Talk is cheap . And next May I'll score an absolute screamer that sends West Brom back into the Premiership. Neither my, nor Mr Sunak's proclamations are remotely likely to become reality.

I think they will get a grip on it and show good results over the next year or two now. Actually. It was never as difficult as Patel and Boris made out was it? Patel wasted so much time and energy on the Rwanda “magic bullet” - but so quickly deporting Albanian’s and other economic migrants is certain to speed up processing because the ratio of handlers to claims will quickly change would it not? A handler working on 5 Albanian claims in a row will be working on 5 legit Asylum claims instead. So Rishi will be able to March into PMQs in a years time and flatten Starmer with huge progress in processed claims and size of backlog, that part of the issue is not too difficult. Though it remains to be seen how much progress can be made stopping boats from launching, but progress on that front too was never beyond the reach of extra money and better collaboration with the French too, was it ever?

Stuartinromford

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

So it's the economy. In such esteemed company the Clinton conclusion seems ungallant.

Sunak's success depends on people having pounds in their pockets in two years time. The things that might make that happen seem pretty unlikely... I mean Underpants Gnomes levels of unlikely... Don't they?

carnforth

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Not all economic fundamentals are bad. Unemployment is low. Economists might point out that that's not optimal, but if you're an employee, it's great. Wages falling behind inflation is bad and mortgage payments going up is bad, but it's nothing compared with being stuck on the dole.

StuartDickson

Benpointer said:

Re previous thread.

I understand that some people feel removing the private education VAT exemption is an assault on their liberty and tantamount to theft.

I just don't think very many people feel that way. It's the foxhunting du jour; I doubt it will sway a single seat.

Oh, I dunno. Scottish Labour’s sole MP Ian Murray is entirely dependent on the votes of parents who send their bairnies to Watson’s, Merchiston, Heriot’s, the Academy et al.

Their enthusiasm for a Nat Basher might not extend to emptying their bank accounts.

dixiedean

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

FPT
We had a kid return on Monday after a two week suspension for assaulting a teacher and another pupil. They were supposed to come for an hour a day with 1 to 1 TA support to work on their own in isolation. Despite our objections.
None was available. And no supply forthcoming.
So. They arrived, and were allowed to wander back to their class, and left there with the teacher and student they'd attacked. Teacher is still receiving medical treatment. The rest of the class, who'd witnessed this, got to see there aren't any consequences for actions.
It's not all about pay and conditions.
It's about everyone's safety too.

Presumably at the PRU he is already in the last chance saloon.

But.
Where does he go from here? There simply isn't anywhere to send him.
ECHR plans are drawn up in blythe indifference to the fact that there are no staff to implement them.
I work in a special school. We've an 80.pupil waiting list of kids with a diagnosis to attend.
We've a PRU which is supposed to be 1:2 staffing. It's 1:4. And that's with refusing to take those who need it.
We can't get ADHD assessments. 12 months for a CAHMS referral. Which means kids in mainstream who shouldn't be there. Kids in special schools regular classes who shouldn't be there. On the wrong meds. On no meds. Without social workers.
We've got untrained staff on minimum wage spotting anorexia. And psychosis.
It isn't safe.
At least private education doesn't have VAT. That would be utterly intolerable.

StuartDickson

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Sunak Bounce? PeoplePolling had the Tories 27 points behind last week.

Mexicanpete

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

It’s just sensible good politics to get this done on the eve of Christmas holidays, MPs heading to constituency’s. The difference between Sunak’s government digging the party out a hole, his PM predecessors, and like Starmer too, were poor at reading all the documents and being on top all the detail, so not delivering.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019. But they don’t count now, they are out the game - the next election is fought solely upon Sunak and Hunt’s record over the next two years, on migrant invasion, cost of living, and hospital waiting lists, and wether to dump Sunak and Hunt for Starmer and his team. This is how results like 1992 happen. This is reality of electoral politics.

Talk is cheap . And next May I'll score an absolute screamer that sends West Brom back into the Premiership. Neither my, nor Mr Sunak's proclamations are remotely likely to become reality.

I think they will get a grip on it and show good results over the next year or two now. Actually. It was never as difficult as Patel and Boris made out was it? Patel wasted so much time and energy on the Rwanda “magic bullet” - but so quickly deporting Albanian’s and other economic migrants is certain to speed up processing because the ratio of handlers to claims will quickly change would it not? A handler working on 5 Albanian claims in a row will be working on 5 legit Asylum claims instead. So Rishi will be able to March into PMQs in a years time and flatten Starmer with huge progress in processed claims and size of backlog, that part of the issue is not too difficult. Though it remains to be seen how much progress can be made stopping boats from launching, but progress on that front too was never beyond the reach of extra money and better collaboration with the French too, was it ever?

Here you go again. Projecting your hopes rather than relying on any evidence.

Anyway I prefer your posts with pictures. Your narrative is often challenging.

pm215

carnforth said:

Not all economic fundamentals are bad. Unemployment is low. Economists might point out that that's not optimal, but if you're an employee, it's great. Wages falling behind inflation is bad and mortgage payments going up is bad, but it's nothing compared with being stuck on the dole.

Unfortunately it's a "stuff didn't happen" kind of fundamental -- if you *don't* get made redundant, you don't think "good on the government for keeping the economy rolling", it's just the normal state of the world and/or something you attribute to yourself doing the job well. I'm doubtful many people will really credit the government with this if actively negative things continue to be a factor.

darkage

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

It’s just sensible good politics to get this done on the eve of Christmas holidays, MPs heading to constituency’s. The difference between Sunak’s government digging the party out a hole, his PM predecessors, and like Starmer too, were poor at reading all the documents and being on top all the detail, so not delivering.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019. But they don’t count now, they are out the game - the next election is fought solely upon Sunak and Hunt’s record over the next two years, on migrant invasion, cost of living, and hospital waiting lists, and wether to dump Sunak and Hunt for Starmer and his team. This is how results like 1992 happen. This is reality of electoral politics.

Talk is cheap . And next May I'll score an absolute screamer that sends West Brom back into the Premiership. Neither my, nor Mr Sunak's proclamations are remotely likely to become reality.

I think they will get a grip on it and show good results over the next year or two now. Actually. It was never as difficult as Patel and Boris made out was it? Patel wasted so much time and energy on the Rwanda “magic bullet” - but so quickly deporting Albanian’s and other economic migrants is certain to speed up processing because the ratio of handlers to claims will quickly change would it not? A handler working on 5 Albanian claims in a row will be working on 5 legit Asylum claims instead. So Rishi will be able to March into PMQs in a years time and flatten Starmer with huge progress in processed claims and size of backlog, that part of the issue is not too difficult. Though it remains to be seen how much progress can be made stopping boats from launching, but progress on that front too was never beyond the reach of extra money and better collaboration with the French too, was it ever?

Their ideas about speeding up the asylum system sound totally dysfunctional. I read somewhere that they were going to increase the amount of decisions each caseworker issues from 1 to 4 each week. I think the caseworkers are entry level civil servants on just over the minimum wage. This type of initiative is destined for either failure or unforeseeable negative consequences of some description.

Benpointer

londonpubman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Absolutely. There has to be a BIG fall in CPI in 2023 maybe to no more than 3% by the end of 2023 for the government to regain any economic credibility. Not sure that will happen.

CPI is forecast to fall to "3.8% in Q4 2023 and to fall below the 2% target by Q2 2024" according to the Autumn statement, so your criteria should be met.

The real killer for the Tories however is that vast swathes of the population will have seen their net income go backwards in the past few years and many will think they were better off under Labour in the 2000s

MoonRabbit

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

HYUFD

I think it will be 2010 in reverse, Labour largest party, Starmer PM but Sunak like Brown gets a hung parliament

Nigelb

londonpubman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Absolutely. There has to be a BIG fall in CPI in 2023 maybe to no more than 3% by the end of 2023 for the government to regain any economic credibility. Not sure that will happen.

It might well in the US, where next year could see both renewed growth and falling inflation, but I think we have deeper problems.

And it’s sognifucantly easier for the Fed to bear down on wage inflation than it will be for our government/BoE duumvirate. Not least thanks to the respective sizes of our public sectors.

londonpubman

Benpointer said:

londonpubman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Absolutely. There has to be a BIG fall in CPI in 2023 maybe to no more than 3% by the end of 2023 for the government to regain any economic credibility. Not sure that will happen.

CPI is forecast to fall to "3.8% in Q4 2023 and to fall below the 2% target by Q2 2024" according to the Autumn statement, so your criteria should be met.

The real killer for the Tories however is that vast swathes of the population will have seen their net income go backwards in the past few years and many will think they were better off under Labour in the 2000s

Of course it is possible that the forecast will be wrong...

Mexicanpete

HYUFD said:

I think it will be 2010 in reverse, Labour largest party, Starmer PM but Sunak like Brown gets a hung parliament

As someone who lived through 1992, a replay is my fear.

StuartDickson

Is “Lady” Michelle Mone in police custody yet?

Luckyguy1983

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

It should do, but Labour don't have any answers, expect squeeze the rich. Which is fine, except how many of the actual rich are there still hanging around waiting to be clobbered? If they're not already having a party in Dubai, they're certainly booking their tickets. Labour has no answers on energy, COL, the NHS, and they certainly don't have any answers on the migrant crisis. I hope Labour find some of these answers as a change (a real change) would be refreshing.

Northern_Al

dixiedean said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

FPT
We had a kid return on Monday after a two week suspension for assaulting a teacher and another pupil. They were supposed to come for an hour a day with 1 to 1 TA support to work on their own in isolation. Despite our objections.
None was available. And no supply forthcoming.
So. They arrived, and were allowed to wander back to their class, and left there with the teacher and student they'd attacked. Teacher is still receiving medical treatment. The rest of the class, who'd witnessed this, got to see there aren't any consequences for actions.
It's not all about pay and conditions.
It's about everyone's safety too.

Presumably at the PRU he is already in the last chance saloon.

But.
Where does he go from here? There simply isn't anywhere to send him.
ECHR plans are drawn up in blythe indifference to the fact that there are no staff to implement them.
I work in a special school. We've an 80.pupil waiting list of kids with a diagnosis to attend.
We've a PRU which is supposed to be 1:2 staffing. It's 1:4. And that's with refusing to take those who need it.
We can't get ADHD assessments. 12 months for a CAHMS referral. Which means kids in mainstream who shouldn't be there. Kids in special schools regular classes who shouldn't be there. On the wrong meds. On no meds. Without social workers.
We've got untrained staff on minimum wage spotting anorexia. And psychosis.
It isn't safe.
At least private education doesn't have VAT. That would be utterly intolerable.

Sounds like chaos, and is unacceptable for the staff and the kids. Are you in a union? If so, they should be doing something. Is leadership a problem? If so, when did Ofsted last visit - I suspect they'd take a dim view of what you describe, as vulnerable kids are clearly being failed and there are safeguarding worries.

Luckyguy1983

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

MoonRabbit

Stuartinromford said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019.

That's not why Boris was dumped. You think Tory MPs would give a crap about whether promises were being delivered on so long as they looked on course to win again? Rightly or wrongly they were concerned they would not, and Boris forcing them to spend seemingly every moment defending his own incompetent mistakes did not help.

Nonsense. He was dumped because it was clear he didn’t have a handle on how to govern correctly - he was too slack, too lazy, and the MPs ran out of patience - and a key driver was, by not delivering on his promises made, he was going to take them down with him.

The fact is, the next election will now be fought on Sunak’s record over the next two years, nothing what Truss or Boris got up to, not Boris promises in 2019, nor Boris record in office. A week is a long time in politics, two years burys Boris antics into history in voters minds.

If the problem had been BoJo's undoubted mediocrity as PM, he would have gone at the confidence vote. The final collapse came when Conservative MPs discovered that Boris had put a sex pest in their HR department and lied about it.

Ha. They knew that already, it was hardly a surprise to them. No it wasn’t that.

The truth is opposite from your position. The Confidence vote did finish him. Many voted for him not knowing he was finished. But only hearing the result knew he was.

Benpointer

darkage said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

It’s just sensible good politics to get this done on the eve of Christmas holidays, MPs heading to constituency’s. The difference between Sunak’s government digging the party out a hole, his PM predecessors, and like Starmer too, were poor at reading all the documents and being on top all the detail, so not delivering.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019. But they don’t count now, they are out the game - the next election is fought solely upon Sunak and Hunt’s record over the next two years, on migrant invasion, cost of living, and hospital waiting lists, and wether to dump Sunak and Hunt for Starmer and his team. This is how results like 1992 happen. This is reality of electoral politics.

Talk is cheap . And next May I'll score an absolute screamer that sends West Brom back into the Premiership. Neither my, nor Mr Sunak's proclamations are remotely likely to become reality.

I think they will get a grip on it and show good results over the next year or two now. Actually. It was never as difficult as Patel and Boris made out was it? Patel wasted so much time and energy on the Rwanda “magic bullet” - but so quickly deporting Albanian’s and other economic migrants is certain to speed up processing because the ratio of handlers to claims will quickly change would it not? A handler working on 5 Albanian claims in a row will be working on 5 legit Asylum claims instead. So Rishi will be able to March into PMQs in a years time and flatten Starmer with huge progress in processed claims and size of backlog, that part of the issue is not too difficult. Though it remains to be seen how much progress can be made stopping boats from launching, but progress on that front too was never beyond the reach of extra money and better collaboration with the French too, was it ever?

Their ideas about speeding up the asylum system sound totally dysfunctional. I read somewhere that they were going to increase the amount of decisions each caseworker issues from 1 to 4 each week. I think the caseworkers are entry level civil servants on just over the minimum wage. This type of initiative is destined for either failure or unforeseeable negative consequences of some description.

The decision-making is easy - the rules are all set out clearly in Home Office guidelines, even Leon's AI could make the decisions.

The hard part is gathering, assessing and challenging the evidence.

Foxy

dixiedean said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

FPT
We had a kid return on Monday after a two week suspension for assaulting a teacher and another pupil. They were supposed to come for an hour a day with 1 to 1 TA support to work on their own in isolation. Despite our objections.
None was available. And no supply forthcoming.
So. They arrived, and were allowed to wander back to their class, and left there with the teacher and student they'd attacked. Teacher is still receiving medical treatment. The rest of the class, who'd witnessed this, got to see there aren't any consequences for actions.
It's not all about pay and conditions.
It's about everyone's safety too.

Presumably at the PRU he is already in the last chance saloon.

But.
Where does he go from here? There simply isn't anywhere to send him.
ECHR plans are drawn up in blythe indifference to the fact that there are no staff to implement them.
I work in a special school. We've an 80.pupil waiting list of kids with a diagnosis to attend.
We've a PRU which is supposed to be 1:2 staffing. It's 1:4. And that's with refusing to take those who need it.
We can't get ADHD assessments. 12 months for a CAHMS referral. Which means kids in mainstream who shouldn't be there. Kids in special schools regular classes who shouldn't be there. On the wrong meds. On no meds. Without social workers.
We've got untrained staff on minimum wage spotting anorexia. And psychosis.
It isn't safe.
At least private education doesn't have VAT. That would be utterly intolerable.

The sad answer is that the kid is very likely to go in the nick next. The beginning of a long string of government expense and social misery.

Turning even a few around from such a self and society destroying fate is money well spent in my eyes.

Like a lot of in my line of work policy is penny wise and pound foolish.

Luckyguy1983

darkage said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

It’s just sensible good politics to get this done on the eve of Christmas holidays, MPs heading to constituency’s. The difference between Sunak’s government digging the party out a hole, his PM predecessors, and like Starmer too, were poor at reading all the documents and being on top all the detail, so not delivering.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019. But they don’t count now, they are out the game - the next election is fought solely upon Sunak and Hunt’s record over the next two years, on migrant invasion, cost of living, and hospital waiting lists, and wether to dump Sunak and Hunt for Starmer and his team. This is how results like 1992 happen. This is reality of electoral politics.

Talk is cheap . And next May I'll score an absolute screamer that sends West Brom back into the Premiership. Neither my, nor Mr Sunak's proclamations are remotely likely to become reality.

I think they will get a grip on it and show good results over the next year or two now. Actually. It was never as difficult as Patel and Boris made out was it? Patel wasted so much time and energy on the Rwanda “magic bullet” - but so quickly deporting Albanian’s and other economic migrants is certain to speed up processing because the ratio of handlers to claims will quickly change would it not? A handler working on 5 Albanian claims in a row will be working on 5 legit Asylum claims instead. So Rishi will be able to March into PMQs in a years time and flatten Starmer with huge progress in processed claims and size of backlog, that part of the issue is not too difficult. Though it remains to be seen how much progress can be made stopping boats from launching, but progress on that front too was never beyond the reach of extra money and better collaboration with the French too, was it ever?

Their ideas about speeding up the asylum system sound totally dysfunctional. I read somewhere that they were going to increase the amount of decisions each caseworker issues from 1 to 4 each week. I think the caseworkers are entry level civil servants on just over the minimum wage. This type of initiative is destined for either failure or unforeseeable negative consequences of some description.

4 decisions a week is appallingly slow. I can't think what 'unforeseeable negative consequences' that you can see arising from this acceleration from a de facto full stop to a gentle amble.

Benpointer

londonpubman said:

Benpointer said:

londonpubman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Absolutely. There has to be a BIG fall in CPI in 2023 maybe to no more than 3% by the end of 2023 for the government to regain any economic credibility. Not sure that will happen.

CPI is forecast to fall to "3.8% in Q4 2023 and to fall below the 2% target by Q2 2024" according to the Autumn statement, so your criteria should be met.

The real killer for the Tories however is that vast swathes of the population will have seen their net income go backwards in the past few years and many will think they were better off under Labour in the 2000s

Of course it is possible that the forecast will be wrong...

Likely, even. But how wrong?

I expect CPI to be back down below 3% by the time of the next GE but I don't expect that to save the Tories.

dixiedean

Northern_Al said:

dixiedean said:

Foxy said:

dixiedean said:

FPT
We had a kid return on Monday after a two week suspension for assaulting a teacher and another pupil. They were supposed to come for an hour a day with 1 to 1 TA support to work on their own in isolation. Despite our objections.
None was available. And no supply forthcoming.
So. They arrived, and were allowed to wander back to their class, and left there with the teacher and student they'd attacked. Teacher is still receiving medical treatment. The rest of the class, who'd witnessed this, got to see there aren't any consequences for actions.
It's not all about pay and conditions.
It's about everyone's safety too.

Presumably at the PRU he is already in the last chance saloon.

But.
Where does he go from here? There simply isn't anywhere to send him.
ECHR plans are drawn up in blythe indifference to the fact that there are no staff to implement them.
I work in a special school. We've an 80.pupil waiting list of kids with a diagnosis to attend.
We've a PRU which is supposed to be 1:2 staffing. It's 1:4. And that's with refusing to take those who need it.
We can't get ADHD assessments. 12 months for a CAHMS referral. Which means kids in mainstream who shouldn't be there. Kids in special schools regular classes who shouldn't be there. On the wrong meds. On no meds. Without social workers.
We've got untrained staff on minimum wage spotting anorexia. And psychosis.
It isn't safe.
At least private education doesn't have VAT. That would be utterly intolerable.

Sounds like chaos, and is unacceptable for the staff and the kids. Are you in a union? If so, they should be doing something. Is leadership a problem? If so, when did Ofsted last visit - I suspect they'd take a dim view of what you describe, as vulnerable kids are clearly being failed and there are safeguarding worries.

The Head is super friendly with both the Council leader and Regional Union Rep.
We are regularly told we have no naughty kids. Just ones with diagnoses.
That you can be both does not seem to compute.
We recently had a SIPS observation.
They told us we didn't have enough visual timetables.
That was the problem.

MoonRabbit

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

londonpubman

Benpointer said:

londonpubman said:

Benpointer said:

londonpubman said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

In normal circumstances I'd agree with Mike that the Don't Knows will largely return home. However, the economic fundamentals are so catastrophic that I think it's more likely that things will get worse for the Tories. There's a bit of a Sunak bounce at the moment, but for how long?

Absolutely. There has to be a BIG fall in CPI in 2023 maybe to no more than 3% by the end of 2023 for the government to regain any economic credibility. Not sure that will happen.

CPI is forecast to fall to "3.8% in Q4 2023 and to fall below the 2% target by Q2 2024" according to the Autumn statement, so your criteria should be met.

The real killer for the Tories however is that vast swathes of the population will have seen their net income go backwards in the past few years and many will think they were better off under Labour in the 2000s

Of course it is possible that the forecast will be wrong...

Likely, even. But how wrong?

I expect CPI to be back down below 3% by the time of the next GE but I don't expect that to save the Tories.

This is in line with my own projections of 5% Dec 2023 and 3% Dec 2024 ie roughly when the GE will be.

LAB clear favourite to be largest party, overall majority possible but not a big one no more than 30.

Benpointer

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

"Well it’s very much with us now, is it not?"

No, not really.

Mortgage rises will only hit (most) home-owners over the next two years as fixed-rate deal finish and have to be renewed. House prices are likely to fall. Energy costs are not going to go up for most people after April. By this time next year most people will be feeling noticeably worse off. Luxuries like holidays will be curtailed for many.

Much pain yet to come imo.

Gardenwalker

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

There is hopecasting, which we all probably do to some extent. And then there is outright fabrication.

rcs1000

Luckyguy1983 said:

darkage said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

It’s just sensible good politics to get this done on the eve of Christmas holidays, MPs heading to constituency’s. The difference between Sunak’s government digging the party out a hole, his PM predecessors, and like Starmer too, were poor at reading all the documents and being on top all the detail, so not delivering.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019. But they don’t count now, they are out the game - the next election is fought solely upon Sunak and Hunt’s record over the next two years, on migrant invasion, cost of living, and hospital waiting lists, and wether to dump Sunak and Hunt for Starmer and his team. This is how results like 1992 happen. This is reality of electoral politics.

Talk is cheap . And next May I'll score an absolute screamer that sends West Brom back into the Premiership. Neither my, nor Mr Sunak's proclamations are remotely likely to become reality.

I think they will get a grip on it and show good results over the next year or two now. Actually. It was never as difficult as Patel and Boris made out was it? Patel wasted so much time and energy on the Rwanda “magic bullet” - but so quickly deporting Albanian’s and other economic migrants is certain to speed up processing because the ratio of handlers to claims will quickly change would it not? A handler working on 5 Albanian claims in a row will be working on 5 legit Asylum claims instead. So Rishi will be able to March into PMQs in a years time and flatten Starmer with huge progress in processed claims and size of backlog, that part of the issue is not too difficult. Though it remains to be seen how much progress can be made stopping boats from launching, but progress on that front too was never beyond the reach of extra money and better collaboration with the French too, was it ever?

Their ideas about speeding up the asylum system sound totally dysfunctional. I read somewhere that they were going to increase the amount of decisions each caseworker issues from 1 to 4 each week. I think the caseworkers are entry level civil servants on just over the minimum wage. This type of initiative is destined for either failure or unforeseeable negative consequences of some description.

4 decisions a week is appallingly slow. I can't think what 'unforeseeable negative consequences' that you can see arising from this acceleration from a de facto full stop to a gentle amble.

The Netherlands every week posts asylum statistics, including processing time.

https://ind.nl/en/after-your-application/asylum-processing-times

I believe they manage about 80% of all applications within six weeks, and 98% within twenty four weeks.

StillWaters

StuartDickson said:

Is “Lady” Michelle Mone in police custody yet?

Michelle, Lady Mone, isn’t.

I’m not aware of the daughter of the Earl of Mone having done anything wrong (such as existing)

Luckyguy1983

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

It's been a busy day - I haven't caught any announcements.

Labour has chosen to have no power and influence, because they don't want their own policies to be picked apart; they just want to come in because they're 'not the Tories'. If they wanted to, they could be laying out an alternative programme for Government all the time. Personally, I think that's what they should do, but they've been advised differently. In any case, they have nothing to offer on cost of living; the Tories have outdone them on vomiting money all over the public services, they have nothing to offer on energy beyond even more useless windmills and carping about the opening of a coal mine (for shame), they have less than nothing to offer on the migrant crisis. There isn't a single policy question (and there are a lot of policy questions) to which 'Labour' is the answer.

Benpointer

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

Polling movements? Not much...



Edit: Today's latest Deltapoll not included because I did this yesterday and can't be arsed to update it again.

MoonRabbit

darkage said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

It’s just sensible good politics to get this done on the eve of Christmas holidays, MPs heading to constituency’s. The difference between Sunak’s government digging the party out a hole, his PM predecessors, and like Starmer too, were poor at reading all the documents and being on top all the detail, so not delivering.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019. But they don’t count now, they are out the game - the next election is fought solely upon Sunak and Hunt’s record over the next two years, on migrant invasion, cost of living, and hospital waiting lists, and wether to dump Sunak and Hunt for Starmer and his team. This is how results like 1992 happen. This is reality of electoral politics.

Talk is cheap . And next May I'll score an absolute screamer that sends West Brom back into the Premiership. Neither my, nor Mr Sunak's proclamations are remotely likely to become reality.

I think they will get a grip on it and show good results over the next year or two now. Actually. It was never as difficult as Patel and Boris made out was it? Patel wasted so much time and energy on the Rwanda “magic bullet” - but so quickly deporting Albanian’s and other economic migrants is certain to speed up processing because the ratio of handlers to claims will quickly change would it not? A handler working on 5 Albanian claims in a row will be working on 5 legit Asylum claims instead. So Rishi will be able to March into PMQs in a years time and flatten Starmer with huge progress in processed claims and size of backlog, that part of the issue is not too difficult. Though it remains to be seen how much progress can be made stopping boats from launching, but progress on that front too was never beyond the reach of extra money and better collaboration with the French too, was it ever?

Their ideas about speeding up the asylum system sound totally dysfunctional. I read somewhere that they were going to increase the amount of decisions each caseworker issues from 1 to 4 each week. I think the caseworkers are entry level civil servants on just over the minimum wage. This type of initiative is destined for either failure or unforeseeable negative consequences of some description.

Maybe not, maybe you speed it up in a way the caseworkers are thankful for - for example the law currently states you have to do this that and other which slows the whole process down, but the law is changed, denying some claimants representation for example, denying them bank accounts, allowing caseworkers to ignore certain things for some types of claim that currently slows things down.

By changing law and changing process you can dramatically increase output without increasing number of handlers. That is what a process review is designed to achieve, save time and money.

Richard_Nabavi

It somewhat stretches credulity to think that Rishi will get a grip on asylum applications when the minister he's put in charge of the problem makes Priti Patel look like a model of compassionate efficiency.

Luckyguy1983

rcs1000 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

darkage said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

It’s just sensible good politics to get this done on the eve of Christmas holidays, MPs heading to constituency’s. The difference between Sunak’s government digging the party out a hole, his PM predecessors, and like Starmer too, were poor at reading all the documents and being on top all the detail, so not delivering.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019. But they don’t count now, they are out the game - the next election is fought solely upon Sunak and Hunt’s record over the next two years, on migrant invasion, cost of living, and hospital waiting lists, and wether to dump Sunak and Hunt for Starmer and his team. This is how results like 1992 happen. This is reality of electoral politics.

Talk is cheap . And next May I'll score an absolute screamer that sends West Brom back into the Premiership. Neither my, nor Mr Sunak's proclamations are remotely likely to become reality.

I think they will get a grip on it and show good results over the next year or two now. Actually. It was never as difficult as Patel and Boris made out was it? Patel wasted so much time and energy on the Rwanda “magic bullet” - but so quickly deporting Albanian’s and other economic migrants is certain to speed up processing because the ratio of handlers to claims will quickly change would it not? A handler working on 5 Albanian claims in a row will be working on 5 legit Asylum claims instead. So Rishi will be able to March into PMQs in a years time and flatten Starmer with huge progress in processed claims and size of backlog, that part of the issue is not too difficult. Though it remains to be seen how much progress can be made stopping boats from launching, but progress on that front too was never beyond the reach of extra money and better collaboration with the French too, was it ever?

Their ideas about speeding up the asylum system sound totally dysfunctional. I read somewhere that they were going to increase the amount of decisions each caseworker issues from 1 to 4 each week. I think the caseworkers are entry level civil servants on just over the minimum wage. This type of initiative is destined for either failure or unforeseeable negative consequences of some description.

4 decisions a week is appallingly slow. I can't think what 'unforeseeable negative consequences' that you can see arising from this acceleration from a de facto full stop to a gentle amble.

The Netherlands every week posts asylum statistics, including processing time.

https://ind.nl/en/after-your-application/asylum-processing-times

I believe they manage about 80% of all applications within six weeks, and 98% within twenty four weeks.

Yes, we're not great are we?

MoonRabbit

There’s definitely a pattern emerging. Partying in PJs, they are not just for bed - the Telegraph says tonight.

Pro_Rata

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

Polling movements? Not much...



Edit: Today's latest Deltapoll not included because I did this yesterday and can't be arsed to update it again.

I guess the varying redults might reflect when the polls were taken for each pollster within
the Truss PMship, with pollsters who surveyed more before the end of September showing better Truss averages??

dixiedean

MoonRabbit said:

darkage said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

MoonRabbit said:

Mexicanpete said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Yeah but, you've been implying the polling evidence is on your side. It isn't yet.

You may turn out to be the sagest of sages but if you do, it will all be down to guesswork.

I’m not predicting anything, not sage anything. I’m just reporting what is already going on in front of us. The media and voter love in with Sunak and his government has been going on for weeks right in front of you, my little Mex Pet. Open your eyes. Starmer and the Labour Party can’t lay a glove on them at the moment. And unlike Boris and Truss, the Sunak government does all the right things on all the right issues - look at todays announcement, sending MPs home for Christmas with deals agreed and five point plans now in place.

Sure don’t listen to me. But this is front page of tomorrows FT. SUNAK TOUGH ON MIGRANTS.

If only being tough on migrants made everything better. It might shock 70 year old home owners in the shires and working class right on lads on the coasts, but turns out it doesn't.

It’s just sensible good politics to get this done on the eve of Christmas holidays, MPs heading to constituency’s. The difference between Sunak’s government digging the party out a hole, his PM predecessors, and like Starmer too, were poor at reading all the documents and being on top all the detail, so not delivering.

Boris was dumped because he was never going to deliver on his promises of 2019. But they don’t count now, they are out the game - the next election is fought solely upon Sunak and Hunt’s record over the next two years, on migrant invasion, cost of living, and hospital waiting lists, and wether to dump Sunak and Hunt for Starmer and his team. This is how results like 1992 happen. This is reality of electoral politics.

Talk is cheap . And next May I'll score an absolute screamer that sends West Brom back into the Premiership. Neither my, nor Mr Sunak's proclamations are remotely likely to become reality.

I think they will get a grip on it and show good results over the next year or two now. Actually. It was never as difficult as Patel and Boris made out was it? Patel wasted so much time and energy on the Rwanda “magic bullet” - but so quickly deporting Albanian’s and other economic migrants is certain to speed up processing because the ratio of handlers to claims will quickly change would it not? A handler working on 5 Albanian claims in a row will be working on 5 legit Asylum claims instead. So Rishi will be able to March into PMQs in a years time and flatten Starmer with huge progress in processed claims and size of backlog, that part of the issue is not too difficult. Though it remains to be seen how much progress can be made stopping boats from launching, but progress on that front too was never beyond the reach of extra money and better collaboration with the French too, was it ever?

Their ideas about speeding up the asylum system sound totally dysfunctional. I read somewhere that they were going to increase the amount of decisions each caseworker issues from 1 to 4 each week. I think the caseworkers are entry level civil servants on just over the minimum wage. This type of initiative is destined for either failure or unforeseeable negative consequences of some description.

Maybe not, maybe you speed it up in a way the caseworkers are thankful for - for example the law currently states you have to do this that and other which slows the whole process down, but the law is changed, denying some claimants representation for example, denying them bank accounts, allowing caseworkers to ignore certain things for some types of claim that currently slows things down.

By changing law and changing process you can dramatically increase output without increasing number of handlers. That is what a process review is designed to achieve, save time and money.

Caseworkers?
Ha bloody ha.

StuartDickson

StillWaters said:

StuartDickson said:

Is “Lady” Michelle Mone in police custody yet?

Michelle, Lady Mone, isn’t.

I’m not aware of the daughter of the Earl of Mone having done anything wrong (such as existing)

Tell Michelle:

MoonRabbit

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

Polling movements? Not much...



Edit: Today's latest Deltapoll not included because I did this yesterday and can't be arsed to update it again.

You are living in a fantasy world Ben.

On 13-17 October, Labour led with Deltapollby 32pts (Lab 55%, Con 23%).

In the two months since then, the party's lead has more than halved to just 13pts today.

What more can I say to you? You are a dormouse at a mad hatters tea party at the moment. You need to wake up and smell the coffee.

RobD

StuartDickson said:

StillWaters said:

StuartDickson said:

Is “Lady” Michelle Mone in police custody yet?

Michelle, Lady Mone, isn’t.

I’m not aware of the daughter of the Earl of Mone having done anything wrong (such as existing)

Tell Michelle:

Perhaps you could send her a copy of Debretts to read if she, for whatever reason, has an extended period of time to kill.

Andy_JS

"Matt Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ

Rishi Sunak's only chance in 2024 rests on him convincing frustrated voters, after decades of being let down by all parties on immigration, that he has genuinely taken control of Britain's borders. Today's measures will not solve the problem but are a step in the right direction

7:11 pm · 13 Dec 2022"

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1602743110567706624

Benpointer

Pro_Rata said:

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

Polling movements? Not much...



Edit: Today's latest Deltapoll not included because I did this yesterday and can't be arsed to update it again.

I guess the varying redults might reflect when the polls were taken for each pollster within
the Truss PMship, with pollsters who surveyed more before the end of September showing better Truss averages??

One thing you can say is that for the first two weeks of Truss's Premiership the Labour lead across all pollsters averaged 11%; for them most recent two weeks of Sunak's 'poll bounce' the Labour lead has averaged 20%.

All here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2022

dixiedean

Andy_JS said:

"Matt Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ

Rishi Sunak's only chance in 2024 rests on him convincing frustrated voters, after decades of being let down by all parties on immigration, that he has genuinely taken control of Britain's borders. Today's measures will not solve the problem but are a step in the right direction

7:11 pm · 13 Dec 2022"

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1602743110567706624

Yeah, yeah. Sure Sure.

MoonRabbit

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

"Well it’s very much with us now, is it not?"

No, not really.

Mortgage rises will only hit (most) home-owners over the next two years as fixed-rate deal finish and have to be renewed. House prices are likely to fall. Energy costs are not going to go up for most people after April. By this time next year most people will be feeling noticeably worse off. Luxuries like holidays will be curtailed for many.

Much pain yet to come imo.

But all that lovely pain you are rubbing your hands with glee awaiting, does not necessarily mean polling drops and election losses for governing parties - that’s the crucial bit you are wrong on. In the past challenging times actually proved to be opportunity for governing politicians, to show good work and great skill sets that completely over shadow their rivals.

MarqueeMark

RobD said:

StuartDickson said:

StillWaters said:

StuartDickson said:

Is “Lady” Michelle Mone in police custody yet?

Michelle, Lady Mone, isn’t.

I’m not aware of the daughter of the Earl of Mone having done anything wrong (such as existing)

Tell Michelle:

Perhaps you could send her a copy of Debretts to read if she, for whatever reason, has an extended period of time to kill.

She can write the second volume of her autobiography: "My Flight from the Top"...

StuartDickson

RobD said:

StuartDickson said:

StillWaters said:

StuartDickson said:

Is “Lady” Michelle Mone in police custody yet?

Michelle, Lady Mone, isn’t.

I’m not aware of the daughter of the Earl of Mone having done anything wrong (such as existing)

Tell Michelle:

Perhaps you could send her a copy of Debretts to read if she, for whatever reason, has an extended period of time to kill.

My charitable demeanour does not extend to suspected fraudsters. She will have to depend on the prison library, if such things still exist.

Mexicanpete

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

Polling movements? Not much...



Edit: Today's latest Deltapoll not included because I did this yesterday and can't be arsed to update it again.

You are living in a fantasy world Ben.

On 13-17 October, Labour led with Deltapollby 32pts (Lab 55%, Con 23%).

In the two months since then, the party's lead has more than halved to just 13pts today.

What more can I say to you? You are a dormouse at a mad hatters tea party at the moment. You need to wake up and smell the coffee.

Are you HYUFD? You are using carefully selected polling data to support your narrative just like HYUFD. Why are you not using this week's ComRes seat by seat poll? Yes it's b******, but crucially it doesn't paint your picture, so you ignore it.

StuartDickson

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

RobD

MarqueeMark said:

RobD said:

StuartDickson said:

StillWaters said:

StuartDickson said:

Is “Lady” Michelle Mone in police custody yet?

Michelle, Lady Mone, isn’t.

I’m not aware of the daughter of the Earl of Mone having done anything wrong (such as existing)

Tell Michelle:

Perhaps you could send her a copy of Debretts to read if she, for whatever reason, has an extended period of time to kill.

She ca write the second volume of her autobiography: "My Flight from the Top"...

I wonder what made her stop tweeting in January this year?

Benpointer

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

Polling movements? Not much...



Edit: Today's latest Deltapoll not included because I did this yesterday and can't be arsed to update it again.

You are living in a fantasy world Ben.

On 13-17 October, Labour led with Deltapollby 32pts (Lab 55%, Con 23%).

In the two months since then, the party's lead has more than halved to just 13pts today.

What more can I say to you? You are a dormouse at a mad hatters tea party at the moment. You need to wake up and smell the coffee.

You just pick the polls you like; I am using averages.

If you want to pick a recent poll, why not this one from PeoplePolling from last Thursday showing a 27% Labour lead?

https://www.gbnews.uk/politics/exclusive-poll-tories-face-wipeout-at-general-election-as-reform-uk-support-surges/403497

A: Because it's just one poll, probably an outlier, nothing to get excited about. Averages are what you need to look at.

Mexicanpete

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

Benpointer

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

"Well it’s very much with us now, is it not?"

No, not really.

Mortgage rises will only hit (most) home-owners over the next two years as fixed-rate deal finish and have to be renewed. House prices are likely to fall. Energy costs are not going to go up for most people after April. By this time next year most people will be feeling noticeably worse off. Luxuries like holidays will be curtailed for many.

Much pain yet to come imo.

But all that lovely pain you are rubbing your hands with glee awaiting, does not necessarily mean polling drops and election losses for governing parties - that’s the crucial bit you are wrong on. In the past challenging times actually proved to be opportunity for governing politicians, to show good work and great skill sets that completely over shadow their rivals.

For example... ?

MarqueeMark

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I think it will be 2010 in reverse, Labour largest party, Starmer PM but Sunak like Brown gets a hung parliament

As someone who lived through 1992, a replay is my fear.

You'll enjoy 2024 - to 2029 though.

And then beyond.

But you are right to be fearful. Labour's polling lead is down to a Tory voter strike. For now.

DecrepiterJohnL

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

MoonRabbit

Richard_Nabavi said:

It somewhat stretches credulity to think that Rishi will get a grip on asylum applications when the minister he's put in charge of the problem makes Priti Patel look like a model of compassionate efficiency.

Is it not apparent the Minister Sunak has put in charge of this problem is Rishi Sunak? He’s been leading these negotiations himself, in contrast with Boris who was dirt biking round chequers leaving it to others.

That’s why things are different now Richard, government will start to have some progress and delivery to show off in the coming months.

That really is the kernel of what I’m trying to get at in all these posts - suddenly it’s a whole new ball game.

That penny is slow to drop with some.

RobD

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

You haven't heard of the gritting directive EC/1998/GX/10313?

MoonRabbit

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

"Well it’s very much with us now, is it not?"

No, not really.

Mortgage rises will only hit (most) home-owners over the next two years as fixed-rate deal finish and have to be renewed. House prices are likely to fall. Energy costs are not going to go up for most people after April. By this time next year most people will be feeling noticeably worse off. Luxuries like holidays will be curtailed for many.

Much pain yet to come imo.

But all that lovely pain you are rubbing your hands with glee awaiting, does not necessarily mean polling drops and election losses for governing parties - that’s the crucial bit you are wrong on. In the past challenging times actually proved to be opportunity for governing politicians, to show good work and great skill sets that completely over shadow their rivals.

For example... ?

For example. Margaret Thatcher. She won her elections due to her actions in adversity. In particular in the col and recession of the early eighties she windfall taxed both Energy and Banks making it explicitly clear the whole country stands by struggling households.

MoonRabbit

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

MoonRabbit said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

MoonRabbit said:

Benpointer said:

CoL crisis will do for the Tories. "It's the economy, stupid"

Well it’s very much with us now, is it not? And Sunak and Hunt’s deft playing of a difficult hand is sending them up in the polls not down, is it not?

The opposition doesn’t handle col at any point, they are impotent, have no power. If the government continues handle CoL well, as they are seen by voters to be doing so the moment, hence the strong change in polling, as well as continue to handle migrant crisis well, and bring down NHS waiting lists too, why are you so cock sure they won’t get the credit in much better polling for all that?

Everything that’s happened up to now, Boris, Truss, is all in the past and doesn’t play in the next election at all now you agree - just like 1992?

They haven't played a difficult hand deftly - they're shit.

Thankfully, as I've said above, Labour show no signs of being better, and a few signs they might be worse.

Nope. What are Labour supposed to do to show signs of doing better - they have zero power and influence over the situation. 😆

If it’s not the way government is being run, the Tory Party appearing United, and announcements of deals like todays showing progress on key issues, that has moved the polls so much so quickly that idea of a Labour majority is now so much last months pipe dream, then what do you put the polling movements down too?

Polling movements? Not much...



Edit: Today's latest Deltapoll not included because I did this yesterday and can't be arsed to update it again.

You are living in a fantasy world Ben.

On 13-17 October, Labour led with Deltapollby 32pts (Lab 55%, Con 23%).

In the two months since then, the party's lead has more than halved to just 13pts today.

What more can I say to you? You are a dormouse at a mad hatters tea party at the moment. You need to wake up and smell the coffee.

You just pick the polls you like; I am using averages.

If you want to pick a recent poll, why not this one from PeoplePolling from last Thursday showing a 27% Labour lead?

https://www.gbnews.uk/politics/exclusive-poll-tories-face-wipeout-at-general-election-as-reform-uk-support-surges/403497

A: Because it's just one poll, probably an outlier, nothing to get excited about. Averages are what you need to look at.

😂 your hysterical. people polling! 😂. Now whose cherry picking polls and time lines. 😆

The killer point is Ben, your people polling friends are all you have left. Look at just the last two polls from everyone else.

Tory share from last one to present one

Redfield +3
Omnisis +5
Delta +4
Savanta +5
Yougov, opinium, Techne all up too.

The games up. Things are on the move.

Gardenwalker

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

Basically everything is the fault of Brexit.

SouthamObserver

Labour getting a majority has never seemed likely to me because the loss of Scotland takes away 40 or so seats pretty much automatically.

The Truss interval distorted the polling. We’re now moving back to where we were before Kwarteng’s insanity.

Labour might get a 1964 result, if everything falls right, but February 1974 feels more like it. Wales looks to be back in the fold for Labour, there is some low-hanging fruit elsewhere and the LDs will also make a few gains. That’s the Tory majority gone. For that reason I would make Starmer favourite to be next PM leading a minority government.

MoonRabbit

SouthamObserver said:

Labour getting a majority has never seemed likely to me because the loss of Scotland takes away 40 or so seats pretty much automatically.

The Truss interval distorted the polling. We’re now moving back to where we were before Kwarteng’s insanity.

Labour might get a 1964 result, if everything falls right, but February 1974 feels more like it. Wales looks to be back in the fold for Labour, there is some low-hanging fruit elsewhere and the LDs will also make a few gains. That’s the Tory majority gone. For that reason I would make Starmer favourite to be next PM leading a minority government.

At last. A fellow sane poster. 🥰

kle4

I was having a look at private health insurance and I see it specifies that it does not cover 'natural ageing'. Outrageous.

MoonRabbit

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

Basically everything is the fault of Brexit.

Like everything from building trade to retail and hospitality, grit tractors sit idle cause they can’t get the drivers?

Gardenwalker

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

Basically everything is the fault of Brexit.

Like everything from building trade to retail and hospitality, grit tractors sit idle cause they can’t get the drivers?

And Brexit-rendered austerity means councils can’t afford to pay them anyway.

kle4

MoonRabbit said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour getting a majority has never seemed likely to me because the loss of Scotland takes away 40 or so seats pretty much automatically.

The Truss interval distorted the polling. We’re now moving back to where we were before Kwarteng’s insanity.

Labour might get a 1964 result, if everything falls right, but February 1974 feels more like it. Wales looks to be back in the fold for Labour, there is some low-hanging fruit elsewhere and the LDs will also make a few gains. That’s the Tory majority gone. For that reason I would make Starmer favourite to be next PM leading a minority government.

At last. A fellow sane poster. 🥰

I'm sane. I'm so sane it's crazy how sane I am.

MoonRabbit

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

SouthamObserver said:

Labour getting a majority has never seemed likely to me because the loss of Scotland takes away 40 or so seats pretty much automatically.

The Truss interval distorted the polling. We’re now moving back to where we were before Kwarteng’s insanity.

Labour might get a 1964 result, if everything falls right, but February 1974 feels more like it. Wales looks to be back in the fold for Labour, there is some low-hanging fruit elsewhere and the LDs will also make a few gains. That’s the Tory majority gone. For that reason I would make Starmer favourite to be next PM leading a minority government.

At last. A fellow sane poster. 🥰

I'm sane. I'm so sane it's crazy how sane I am.

That’s bonkers talk.

DJ41

Off-topic but delicious: a bug in ChatGPT!
.

Q) What is the square of the Gaussian integer (1+i)?

A) The square of the Gaussian integer (1+i) is (-1+i). To square a Gaussian integer, we can use the standard formula for squaring a complex number, which is (a+bi)^2 = (a^2 - b^2) + (2ab)i. In this case, we have (1+i)^2 = (1^2 - i^2) + (21i)i = (-1+i).

Ha!! This is wrong. The correct answer is 2i.

MoonRabbit

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

Basically everything is the fault of Brexit.

Like everything from building trade to retail and hospitality, grit tractors sit idle cause they can’t get the drivers?

And Brexit-rendered austerity means councils can’t afford to pay them anyway.

Actually, the issue with councils seems a bit of a worry to me. Council funding is at the sharp end of the quality of life of so many people. The Night Bus that gets the girls home from town safely, the unprofitable route that connects the 80yr old lady up with her brother once a week etc. 🙁

kle4

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

Basically everything is the fault of Brexit.

Like everything from building trade to retail and hospitality, grit tractors sit idle cause they can’t get the drivers?

And Brexit-rendered austerity means councils can’t afford to pay them anyway.

Actually, the issue with councils seems a bit of a worry to me. Council funding is at the sharp end of the quality of life of so many people. The Night Bus that gets the girls home from town safely, the unprofitable route that connects the 80yr old lady up with her brother once a week etc. 🙁

Many councils can barely afford to keep up with funding child and adult social care, never mind do much else. And it isn't because most of them are prize fools like Thurrock. For a lot of the smaller budgeted services councils provide a little can go a long way.

Nigelb

NBC News: Danske Bank has pleaded guilty and will forfeit $2 Billion dollars after DOJ says it failed to have the anti-money laundering systems and transaction monitoring facilities to stop tainted foreign money — including Russian money — to enter the U.S. system.
https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1602720726641000460

MoonRabbit

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

Basically everything is the fault of Brexit.

As Richard Tyndall isn’t here, I’ll say it instead. Staff shortages isn’t necessarily the fault of Brexit - you can have Brexit AND a different approach from government on temporary working visa’s where skills, semi skills are needed.

This is a non Brexit decision of the Brexit government to be hard on visa’s - they probably think they are being hard on immigration and causes of immigration, but they are just fucking business and eschewing growth.

MJW

SouthamObserver said:

Labour getting a majority has never seemed likely to me because the loss of Scotland takes away 40 or so seats pretty much automatically.

The Truss interval distorted the polling. We’re now moving back to where we were before Kwarteng’s insanity.

Labour might get a 1964 result, if everything falls right, but February 1974 feels more like it. Wales looks to be back in the fold for Labour, there is some low-hanging fruit elsewhere and the LDs will also make a few gains. That’s the Tory majority gone. For that reason I would make Starmer favourite to be next PM leading a minority government.

It's an interesting one - and very unpredictable due to tipping points with an electorate that's arguably more of a movable feast than when had predictable swings. Labour could do pretty well in Scotland (it's had some positive polls). It could regain lots of lost seats in the Red Wall which voted Conservative but are angry seem to have got very little out of it, while Tories hit by a pincer movement in Wales and the so-called 'Blue Wall' where it collapses. That would mean a pretty large Labour majoity. On the other hand, the SNP could get their act together and unify again behind a 'last chance for Indy' message, newbie Red Wall Tories might decide to stick with nurse and Brexit jam tomorrow, while bickering stops Tory opponents surging in the south. Or different combinations of those things could happen. Point to the middle of two and probably end up with 64 or 74. I'd err towards Lab majority still as the fundamentals seem so bad for the Tories with everything from the economy to public services (if they get better it's going to be quite late in the day) and don't seem to have a coherent way out of that other than Micawberism. It could work out for them, but a lot needs to go right to reach the point where Labour pessimism is rational. On the otherhand a tipping point the other way that gives Labour a pretty healthy majority - another scandal, Tory rebellion, not having lived up to difficult immigration promises, Brexit and the economy still being bad and the blame being easily placed on Tory governments, that would tip the scales the other way, seem far more likely than Starmer being a new Ed Miliband - even if you think he's not all that good.

DJ41

Nigelb said:

NBC News: Danske Bank has pleaded guilty and will forfeit $2 Billion dollars after DOJ says it failed to have the anti-money laundering systems and transaction monitoring facilities to stop tainted foreign money — including Russian money — to enter the U.S. system.
https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1602720726641000460

This may have a knock-on effect on Sweden's NATO application, assuming Wallenberg interests own a big chunk of Danske Bank which I think is the case.

carnforth

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

Basically everything is the fault of Brexit.

Like everything from building trade to retail and hospitality, grit tractors sit idle cause they can’t get the drivers?

And Brexit-rendered austerity means councils can’t afford to pay them anyway.

There has been surprisingly little talk of council finances. The government are "allowing" them to stick bills up 5% in a year when the price of goods & services they are buying may have gone up 10%.

Mexicanpete

MarqueeMark said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I think it will be 2010 in reverse, Labour largest party, Starmer PM but Sunak like Brown gets a hung parliament

As someone who lived through 1992, a replay is my fear.

You'll enjoy 2024 - to 2029 though.

And then beyond.

But you are right to be fearful. Labour's polling lead is down to a Tory voter strike. For now.

To be honest Mark you may be right and the Cons pull off a majestic victory in 24/5 and 29/30. If so it won't be the crushing personal blow it was for me in 1992. My disdain for the Tories is stronger than ever, but I am no longer the Labourite scumbag-filth I once was, these days I am politically agnostic, but nonetheless Tory despising scumbag filth. Is that passive-aggressive enough for you?

The Conservatives are financially corrupt and morally bankrupt, they do not deserve to be in government. That's not to say they won't win the next two elections. A tall order, but doable nonetheless.

Jim_Miller

Completely off topic, but this no-longer-especially-controversial statue cheered me up this morning: https://www.presidentsusa.net/lincolnstatuerichmond.html

Given where it's located.

MoonRabbit

Hey! Was it great having my (mostly) undivided attention for the evening.

Would you know it, the unrivalled dancing queen of the office party has just stumbled in worse for wear! 🙋‍♀️

kle4

Mexicanpete said:

MarqueeMark said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

I think it will be 2010 in reverse, Labour largest party, Starmer PM but Sunak like Brown gets a hung parliament

As someone who lived through 1992, a replay is my fear.

You'll enjoy 2024 - to 2029 though.

And then beyond.

But you are right to be fearful. Labour's polling lead is down to a Tory voter strike. For now.

To be honest Mark you may be right and the Cons pull off a majestic victory in 24/5 and 29/30. If so it won't be the crushing personal blow it was for me in 1992. My disdain for the Tories is stronger than ever, but I am no longer the Labourite scumbag-filth I once was, these days I am politically agnostic, but nonetheless Tory despising scumbag filth. Is that passive-aggressive enough for you?

The Conservatives are financially corrupt and morally bankrupt, they do not deserve to be in government. That's not to say they won't win the next two elections. A tall order, but doable nonetheless.

Would it be better if they could switch it up and be financially bankrupt and morally corrupt instead?

kle4

carnforth said:

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

It's like Fred West complaining about an uneven patio.



https://twitter.com/taxbod/status/1602325070810157058?s=46&t=aTxmripRruMwOtvr9VmtBQ

Don't worry Nige, it will all be fine once we leave the EU.

I yield to no-one in my contempt for Nigel Farage but what has gritting (or not gritting) the M20 got to do with the EU or Brexit?

Basically everything is the fault of Brexit.

Like everything from building trade to retail and hospitality, grit tractors sit idle cause they can’t get the drivers?

And Brexit-rendered austerity means councils can’t afford to pay them anyway.

There has been surprisingly little talk of council finances. The government are "allowing" them to stick bills up 5% in a year when the price of goods & services they are buying may have gone up 10%.

Expect many MPs to bemoan any local councils of theirs that do put up by that amount during a cost of living crisis. Council bashing is not a preserve of Whitehall, it's an open goal for MPs too.

rcs1000

DJ41 said:

Nigelb said:

NBC News: Danske Bank has pleaded guilty and will forfeit $2 Billion dollars after DOJ says it failed to have the anti-money laundering systems and transaction monitoring facilities to stop tainted foreign money — including Russian money — to enter the U.S. system.
https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1602720726641000460

This may have a knock-on effect on Sweden's NATO application, assuming Wallenberg interests own a big chunk of Danske Bank which I think is the case.

The Wallenberg holding company - Investor AB - does not list Danske among its holdings:

https://ind.nl/en/after-your-application/asylum-processing-times

rcs1000

rcs1000 said:

DJ41 said:

Nigelb said:

NBC News: Danske Bank has pleaded guilty and will forfeit $2 Billion dollars after DOJ says it failed to have the anti-money laundering systems and transaction monitoring facilities to stop tainted foreign money — including Russian money — to enter the U.S. system.
https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1602720726641000460

This may have a knock-on effect on Sweden's NATO application, assuming Wallenberg interests own a big chunk of Danske Bank which I think is the case.

The Wallenberg holding company - Investor AB - does not list Danske among its holdings:

https://ind.nl/en/after-your-application/asylum-processing-times

Wrong link. Try

https://www.investorab.com/our-investments/

StillWaters

StuartDickson said:

StillWaters said:

StuartDickson said:

Is “Lady” Michelle Mone in police custody yet?

Michelle, Lady Mone, isn’t.

I’m not aware of the daughter of the Earl of Mone having done anything wrong (such as existing)

Tell Michelle:

You may have noted the brackets.

That says either (a) Lady Mone; or (b) Michelle Mone.

But I’m perfectly happy never having met her so don’t feel the need to tell her anything thank you very much

StillWaters

DJ41 said:

Nigelb said:

NBC News: Danske Bank has pleaded guilty and will forfeit $2 Billion dollars after DOJ says it failed to have the anti-money laundering systems and transaction monitoring facilities to stop tainted foreign money — including Russian money — to enter the U.S. system.
https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1602720726641000460

This may have a knock-on effect on Sweden's NATO application, assuming Wallenberg interests own a big chunk of Danske Bank which I think is the case.

Wallenberg is Enskilda. And Sweden.

Danske is Denmark and Moeller. Clues in the name 😉

StillWaters

rcs1000 said:

DJ41 said:

Nigelb said:

NBC News: Danske Bank has pleaded guilty and will forfeit $2 Billion dollars after DOJ says it failed to have the anti-money laundering systems and transaction monitoring facilities to stop tainted foreign money — including Russian money — to enter the U.S. system.
https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1602720726641000460

This may have a knock-on effect on Sweden's NATO application, assuming Wallenberg interests own a big chunk of Danske Bank which I think is the case.

The Wallenberg holding company - Investor AB - does not list Danske among its holdings:

https://ind.nl/en/after-your-application/asylum-processing-times

You should look at FAM not Investor.

Investor is just a index tracker plus a piggy bank that FAM can dip into when it needs 😂