Many unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
any unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
any unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.
You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?
Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.
I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...
You're probably ahead of HMRC then!
They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.
Not yet…
You’ve heard of PreCrime?
This is PreTax. HMRC keeps three freaks in a basement who see your future earnings. By using some fairly basic Bistromatics, they pull your future earning backwards through space time and tax you on them.
Well, that's good news.
Because it means in the next four months I'm going to somehow earn in excess of £40,000.
No, that’s not good news.
Consider the ways that you might earn that kind of money.
Yes, high end consultancy for DfE
O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved DfE.
any unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
any unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
Well he's right about that, but everyone still seems in wait and see mode until Labour take over again.
Blue Tories / Red Tories / same rubbish.
You may think that, but a change in circumstances will signal a new phase nonetheless.
Is there any surer sign of a political nutter than seeing Labour and the Tories as indistinguishable? Corbynistas, Faragists and Anglophobic Scots Nats.
The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.
As a Liberal Democrat, I am absolutely appalled and deeply personally offended by this shocking comment.
It's "squib" with a "b", not "squid" with a "d", FFS.
Other than that, fair enough.
I do like the idea of literal damp squids turning up on election night at the counts as the promised gains fail to materialise.
I doubt that will happen. It will be drier than the calamari desert.
From the start, the Scottish Government has avoided being pinned down on the effect of a GRC under the Equality Act. It has taken legal action to force it to come clean on its position. Even then, it has tried not to share its view with MSPs.
From today, it must stop the absurd pretence that a GRC is only a bit of paper with no consequences for anyone else. The court says that as things stand a GRC changes whether someone is a woman or a man for the law governing single sex services and anti-discrimination measures.
The exemptions under the Equality Act do not cover all aspects of the Act. Providers are increasingly unwilling to use them even when they can, under pressure from activists. We believe this judgment will make it harder for them to do so for GRC holders.
MSPs will decide next week whether to hand out GRCs to a much larger, undefined group. If they decide to do so then, under the law as it stands, they will be turning back the clock further on women’s ability to find single sex services, when those matter to them most.
And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).
2023 might be rather a good year for the Biden administration.
The significance of the fusion result (achieving Q > 1 by the NIF) has been massively overstated by the press. Going from Q somewhat less that 1 to Q > 1 is a significant achievement, but it is an incremental improvement, not a breakthrough. As Julio Friedmann (chief scientist at Carbon Direct and a former chief energy technologist at Lawrence Livermore) admits at the end of the CNN article, "This will not contribute meaningfully to climate abatement in the next 20-30 years. This is the difference between lighting a match and building a gas turbine."
Has it ? Every press article I've read has said much the same as you just did.
But the '20-30 years' is as much a guess as anyone else's. Note it's only a fortnight back that the physicists at the Royal Society meeting reckoned it might take 2-3 years to reach Q >1.
The significance of the result, from what I understand, is that they've arrived at a set of (likely reproducible) conditions for creating nuclear ignition. It's taken two and a half decades to get there (many, many years longer than originally expected); now they have, exploring how to increase gain by tweaking those conditions becomes a feasible set of experiments, rather than something that was just a concept.
NIF was never intended to come up with a practical approach to fusion power - but its results will inform the work of the half dozen commercial companies that are working on inertial fusion. And likely guarantee US government funding for the effort.
The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.
As a Liberal Democrat, I am absolutely appalled and deeply personally offended by this shocking comment.
It's "squib" with a "b", not "squid" with a "d", FFS.
Other than that, fair enough.
I do like the idea of literal damp squids turning up on election night at the counts as the promised gains fail to materialise.
Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.
Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.
LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.
Yes. While nothing is impossible - including a Tory comeback, the strong probabilities are with a Lab or Lab led government. I agree there is no enthusiasm for them, unlike for Blair in his pomp, but it is hard to see how there could be.
Broad centrist grown up non-populist opinion rather agrees that political solutions don't exist at this moment, and that boring, reasonably honest, middling competence would be a breath of fresh air, and clear water in a desert.
If it is time for a change, then, as always there is only one other party to look to to lead. This time it's Labour.
So do not expect worthwhile stuff from them pre-election on: EU, NHS, social care, migration, tax, spend, debt, deficit, inflation, housing, transport.
They may have a view on whether it is safe for babies to have plastic ducks in the bath but that will be about it.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
There's the rub though. Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID? Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
PM on Radio 4 is doing a slot on tidal power (about 26mins in if anyone is going back to the recording) - first time I've really heard it being brought up on the regular news. I know it's been discussed here a few times.
(it's not a great piece - but nice to hear it at least being discussed)
Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.
Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.
LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.
Yes. While nothing is impossible - including a Tory comeback, the strong probabilities are with a Lab or Lab led government. I agree there is no enthusiasm for them, unlike for Blair in his pomp, but it is hard to see how there could be.
Broad centrist grown up non-populist opinion rather agrees that political solutions don't exist at this moment, and that boring, reasonably honest, middling competence would be a breath of fresh air, and clear water in a desert.
If it is time for a change, then, as always there is only one other party to look to to lead. This time it's Labour.
So do not expect worthwhile stuff from them pre-election on: EU, NHS, social care, migration, tax, spend, debt, deficit, inflation, housing, transport.
You could, I think, have replaced the colon and everything after it with the word "anything".
The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.
A "damp squid" ? You'll be putting people on a pedal stool next.
After one of the biggest snow storms in years Tallinn is busy trying to get about a metre of snow off streets and houses. A friend has just come back from Kyiv. He says that conditions at the front line are almost literally indescribable. The Russians are being killed in utterly astonishing numbers, and quite a few by their own side. It is a WWI style massacre as the Russians send human waves into the mincing machine. It is a literally sickening sight.
The response in Estonia is to redouble the efforts in support of Ukraine, with even more refugees being found space and any practical help Estonia can give is being used to help the Ukrainian forces in any way possible. However the mood is darkening. Direct threats are being made against us, and the sickening carnage that the Russians have unleashed is hardening attitudes here, very strongly. The increasing view is that Russia has unleashed the unforgivable curse and the only way this can end is the complete end of the regime, and even that will not make Russia and its neighbours into friends. "Rossya delenda est" seems like a genuine policy when we learn of the scale of the Russian crimes. Ukraine is not just a war zone, it is a crime scene, and the idea that we should forget natural justice when it comes to vermin like Bout, Peskov, et. al. is going to be a near impossible thing to swallow.
I am flying out tomorrow, assuming that I make the connections I will get to London tomorrow afternoon. With the transport chaos and strikes it feels like I am headed from the frying pan into the fire.
The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.
A "damp squid" ? You'll be putting people on a pedal stool next.
Aren't all squids damp?
The point is it should be a "damned squid", not "damp"!
any unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
Well he's right about that, but everyone still seems in wait and see mode until Labour take over again.
Blue Tories / Red Tories / same rubbish.
You may think that, but a change in circumstances will signal a new phase nonetheless.
Is there any surer sign of a political nutter than seeing Labour and the Tories as indistinguishable? Corbynistas, Faragists and Anglophobic Scots Nats.
In the context of a referendum for independence, it is a perfectly legitimate point of view to hold, given the similarity of L&T policies, and their getting together in, indeed, Better Together.
Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.
Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.
LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.
Yes. While nothing is impossible - including a Tory comeback, the strong probabilities are with a Lab or Lab led government. I agree there is no enthusiasm for them, unlike for Blair in his pomp, but it is hard to see how there could be.
Broad centrist grown up non-populist opinion rather agrees that political solutions don't exist at this moment, and that boring, reasonably honest, middling competence would be a breath of fresh air, and clear water in a desert.
If it is time for a change, then, as always there is only one other party to look to to lead. This time it's Labour.
So do not expect worthwhile stuff from them pre-election on: EU, NHS, social care, migration, tax, spend, debt, deficit, inflation, housing, transport.
They may have a view on whether it is safe for babies to have plastic ducks in the bath but that will be about it.
“I agree there is no enthusiasm for them [the Starmer offering]”
Many unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
any unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
Well he's right about that, but everyone still seems in wait and see mode until Labour take over again.
Blue Tories / Red Tories / same rubbish.
You may think that, but a change in circumstances will signal a new phase nonetheless.
Is there any surer sign of a political nutter than seeing Labour and the Tories as indistinguishable? Corbynistas, Faragists and Anglophobic Scots Nats.
In the context of a referendum for independence, it is a perfectly legitimate point of view to hold, given the similarity of L&T policies, and their getting together in, indeed, Better Together.
In that case, why define Labour by comparison to the Tories?
any unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
Well he's right about that, but everyone still seems in wait and see mode until Labour take over again.
Blue Tories / Red Tories / same rubbish.
You may think that, but a change in circumstances will signal a new phase nonetheless.
Is there any surer sign of a political nutter than seeing Labour and the Tories as indistinguishable? Corbynistas, Faragists and Anglophobic Scots Nats.
In the context of a referendum for independence, it is a perfectly legitimate point of view to hold, given the similarity of L&T policies, and their getting together in, indeed, Better Together.
In that case, why define Labour by comparison to the Tories?
Saying A is similar to B IS the point here. "Much the same policies as before". How is that not a comparison?
Unless you are personally insulted by the comparison?
It is an interesting thought that one of the things that "did for" Theresa May's dream of a landslide against Corbyn was not necessarily the "dementia tax" but many people thinking they really didn't like the idea of a Tory landslide.
I have been very critical of the Conservative/populist Party in the last few years, but the one thing that is likely to cause me to put a cross in the Tory box is the thought of a Labour landslide.
The news media seem to have been going for their own breakthrough in low quality reporting. An even more challenging task than sustainable nuclear fusion.
I don't doubt that the results as reported are correct and will pass peer review; it's the significance of the results that has been massively overstated. Expect everything to go quiet again for a while on the fusion front, at least until ITER is up and running.
I'm sure you know more than I do about it. I was just correcting that specific point about peer review. I am going to read the Physics Today piece fully now.
Which I found pretty depressing, actually, what with its perspective of scientific politics, the focus of the research on nuclear weapons production, and the broader interpretation of this month's achievement, in which the energy produced was only around 1% of the total energy used to produce it...
In contrast I though it somewhat encouraging that a facility originally funded solely for the purposes of helping maintain the US nuclear weapons stockpile has been at least partially repurposed for experiments which will contribute to fusion power development.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
There's the rub though. Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID? Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
What will a council require before issuing said ID - because I beat they will end up requiring a document that many people don't have.
Many unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
No referendum Ref2 with about 52% for independence Ref2 with about 52% for remain in UK.
All of them are horrible and divisive in wonderfully different ways. None promises a happy ending.
However, two are democratic outcomes, one is a fascist outcome.
As Winston Churchill said:
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…
It is an interesting thought that one of the things that "did for" Theresa May's dream of a landslide against Corbyn was not necessarily the "dementia tax" but many people thinking they really didn't like the idea of a Tory landslide.
I have been very critical of the Conservative/populist Party in the last few years, but the one thing that is likely to cause me to put a cross in the Tory box is the thought of a Labour landslide.
It is an interesting thought that one of the things that "did for" Theresa May's dream of a landslide against Corbyn was not necessarily the "dementia tax" but many people thinking they really didn't like the idea of a Tory landslide.
I have been very critical of the Conservative/populist Party in the last few years, but the one thing that is likely to cause me to put a cross in the Tory box is the thought of a Labour landslide.
Given the electoral maths, a “landslide” is still pretty unlikely. So no need to cast a vote for the fash. The Tories need learnin’.
Is it predicting an SNP gain in North Norfolk, or it that one of those optical delusions?
You're colour blind.
Sorry to be the one to have to break it to you. Thoughts and prayers etc.
Not at all - thanks for letting me know. I'll be on my guard from now on.
Incidentally, I thought the other interesting thing about that projection was the number of LD claims in the Scottish Lowlands. Not at all what I would have expected.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
There's the rub though. Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID? Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
What will a council require before issuing said ID - because I beat they will end up requiring a document that many people don't have.
The news media seem to have been going for their own breakthrough in low quality reporting. An even more challenging task than sustainable nuclear fusion.
I don't doubt that the results as reported are correct and will pass peer review; it's the significance of the results that has been massively overstated. Expect everything to go quiet again for a while on the fusion front, at least until ITER is up and running.
It will be one of the private initiatives that crack it. First Light Fusion looks like the real deal, it's just such an unorthodox approach and they've shown it achieves fusion. Their problem is now mechanical in nature (bigger/faster projectiles and gathering energy) rather than solving underlying physics (aneutronic fusion) or material science (what materials can withstand neutron bombardment of that scale).
Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.
Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.
LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.
Yes. While nothing is impossible - including a Tory comeback, the strong probabilities are with a Lab or Lab led government. I agree there is no enthusiasm for them, unlike for Blair in his pomp, but it is hard to see how there could be.
Broad centrist grown up non-populist opinion rather agrees that political solutions don't exist at this moment, and that boring, reasonably honest, middling competence would be a breath of fresh air, and clear water in a desert.
If it is time for a change, then, as always there is only one other party to look to to lead. This time it's Labour.
So do not expect worthwhile stuff from them pre-election on: EU, NHS, social care, migration, tax, spend, debt, deficit, inflation, housing, transport.
You could, I think, have replaced the colon and everything after it with the word "anything".
Which is depressing.
It shouldn't be enough. But when the incumbent government has created an environment where boring, reasonably honest, middling competence would be a breath of fresh air, and clear water in a desert, it is enough.
And that is down to the defective personalities currently infesting the Conservative party.
Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.
Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.
LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.
Yes. While nothing is impossible - including a Tory comeback, the strong probabilities are with a Lab or Lab led government. I agree there is no enthusiasm for them, unlike for Blair in his pomp, but it is hard to see how there could be.
Broad centrist grown up non-populist opinion rather agrees that political solutions don't exist at this moment, and that boring, reasonably honest, middling competence would be a breath of fresh air, and clear water in a desert.
If it is time for a change, then, as always there is only one other party to look to to lead. This time it's Labour.
So do not expect worthwhile stuff from them pre-election on: EU, NHS, social care, migration, tax, spend, debt, deficit, inflation, housing, transport.
You could, I think, have replaced the colon and everything after it with the word "anything".
Which is depressing.
It shouldn't be enough. But when the incumbent government has created an environment where boring, reasonably honest, middling competence would be a breath of fresh air, and clear water in a desert, it is enough.
And that is down to the defective personalities currently infesting the Conservative party.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
There's the rub though. Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID? Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
What will a council require before issuing said ID - because I beat they will end up requiring a document that many people don't have.
Doesn't seem to be a problem in Northern Ireland.
Any evidence to back up that assertion?
Remember that the issuing of photo ID goes well beyond what the electoral commission suggested which was that insisting on the sent photo cards was more than enough.
Let's be blunt - it's this Government trying to introduce ID cards by another means.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
There's the rub though. Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID? Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
What will a council require before issuing said ID - because I beat they will end up requiring a document that many people don't have.
Doesn't seem to be a problem in Northern Ireland.
Any evidence to back up that assertion?
I can't find any significant movement in Northern Ireland to abolish voter ID there.
Many unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
No referendum Ref2 with about 52% for independence Ref2 with about 52% for remain in UK.
All of them are horrible and divisive in wonderfully different ways. None promises a happy ending.
However, two are democratic outcomes, one is a fascist outcome.
As Winston Churchill said:
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…
You had your referendum. You lost. Get over it. Scottish independence is also not necessarily democratic even if you had won. There are very large parts of Scotland that don't want it, indeed the concentration of nationalism in the referendum was all in tiny areas. Those that don't want it would no doubt be conveniently ignored by you. Should they declare independence from the new "independent" Scotland? All nations are artificial constructions. If the UK can be broken up then so can Scotland.
How about the Nats can keep Glasgow, while the nice bits can remain in the UK? All the whingeing Nats can move there and fence themselves in from the rest of the world. I am sure it won't be long before they will all fight amongst themselves about the purity of their Scottishness.
Many unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
No referendum Ref2 with about 52% for independence Ref2 with about 52% for remain in UK.
All of them are horrible and divisive in wonderfully different ways. None promises a happy ending.
However, two are democratic outcomes, one is a fascist outcome.
As Winston Churchill said:
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…
You had your referendum. You lost. Get over it. Scottish independence is also not necessarily democratic even if you had won. There are very large parts of Scotland that don't want it, indeed the concentration of nationalism in the referendum was all in tiny areas. Those that don't want it would no doubt be conveniently ignored by you. Should they declare independence from the new "independent" Scotland? All nations are artificial constructions. If the UK can be broken up then so can Scotland.
How about the Nats can keep Glasgow, while the nice bits can remain in the UK? All the whingeing Nats can move there and fence themselves in from the rest of the world. I am sure it won't be long before they will all fight amongst themselves about the purity of their Scottishness.
All fighting amongst themselves? In Glasgow, of all places?
It is an interesting thought that one of the things that "did for" Theresa May's dream of a landslide against Corbyn was not necessarily the "dementia tax" but many people thinking they really didn't like the idea of a Tory landslide.
I have been very critical of the Conservative/populist Party in the last few years, but the one thing that is likely to cause me to put a cross in the Tory box is the thought of a Labour landslide.
I suspect the main reason that you're likely to put a cross in the Tory box is because you're a Tory, actually.
Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.
You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?
Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.
I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...
You're probably ahead of HMRC then!
They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.
You're self employed right? You can apply to reduce your payments on account online. It's automatically accepted. You just have to tell them how much tax you think you will owe next year, and pinky-swear it's an honest assessment.
It is an interesting thought that one of the things that "did for" Theresa May's dream of a landslide against Corbyn was not necessarily the "dementia tax" but many people thinking they really didn't like the idea of a Tory landslide.
I have been very critical of the Conservative/populist Party in the last few years, but the one thing that is likely to cause me to put a cross in the Tory box is the thought of a Labour landslide.
Some interesting geekism on that poll here: I'd speculate two reasons for this:
1) Lab is winning mainly Leave voters, who are efficiently distributed.
2) Lots of 'proportionate swing' in MRPs due to how polling works. Means bigger swings in safer Tory seats -> thus Lab wins seats in MRPs that it wouldn't in reality.
The Supreme Govt was correct to deny the right to a mock-referendum, but the Govt has erred in refusing to define a possible democratic path to SINDY.
There is a possible democratic path: get a majority in Parliament.
Surely the SNP response would be that they want independence for Scotland, and have indeed got a majority in the Scottish Parliament (with the pro-independence Scottish Greens) and in Westminster in terms of Scottish constituencies.
If your point is the SNP ought to shut up until they win in Mid Devon, Skegness, and Dover, it's just obvious silliness to think the constitutional arrangements for a relatively small proportion of the UK far away from those places is ever going to be a motivating issue at the ballot box.
Look - I'm a unionist and am uncomfortable about the SNP line of asking again and again until they get the result they want. But demanding the ludicrously unrealistic, or just sticking our fingers in our ears and screaming "NO" is calculated to antagonise and drive away. There does need to be some kind of maturely drawn out road map that doesn't make independence easy and does try to resolve uncertainties over what independence looks like (a major omission by both Salmond and Cameron in 2014) but at least makes it realistic if consistent, reasonably strong support within Scotland is there.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
There's the rub though. Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID? Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
What will a council require before issuing said ID - because I beat they will end up requiring a document that many people don't have.
Doesn't seem to be a problem in Northern Ireland.
Any evidence to back up that assertion?
I can't find any significant movement in Northern Ireland to abolish voter ID there.
Not the question I was asking - you said that in NI no one has difficulty getting the photo ID required to vote there.
Please provide the evidence you have that no one has difficultly getting appropriate photo ID.
Also it would be worth knowing the cost by council issued photo ID because I bet the council expect the voter to provide the photograph and that costs money.
It is an interesting thought that one of the things that "did for" Theresa May's dream of a landslide against Corbyn was not necessarily the "dementia tax" but many people thinking they really didn't like the idea of a Tory landslide.
I have been very critical of the Conservative/populist Party in the last few years, but the one thing that is likely to cause me to put a cross in the Tory box is the thought of a Labour landslide.
I suspect the main reason that you're likely to put a cross in the Tory box is because you're a Tory, actually.
Lol. It is a fair accusation except that I haven't voted Tory for the last two GEs. If you want a Labour victory you should be encouraging people like me to continue to put a cross in the LD box
The Supreme Govt was correct to deny the right to a mock-referendum, but the Govt has erred in refusing to define a possible democratic path to SINDY.
There is a possible democratic path: get a majority in Parliament.
Surely the SNP response would be that they want independence for Scotland, and have indeed got a majority in the Scottish Parliament (with the pro-independence Scottish Greens) and in Westminster in terms of Scottish constituencies.
If your point is the SNP ought to shut up until they win in Mid Devon, Skegness, and Dover, it's just obvious silliness to think the constitutional arrangements for a relatively small proportion of the UK far away from those places is ever going to be a motivating issue at the ballot box.
Look - I'm a unionist and am uncomfortable about the SNP line of asking again and again until they get the result they want. But demanding the ludicrously unrealistic, or just sticking our fingers in our ears and screaming "NO" is calculated to antagonise and drive away. There does need to be some kind of maturely drawn out road map that doesn't make independence easy and does try to resolve uncertainties over what independence looks like (a major omission by both Salmond and Cameron in 2014) but at least makes it realistic if consistent, reasonably strong support within Scotland is there.
Surely it would, but the Scottish Parliament doesn't have the right to call a referendum. So logically votes for that parliament cannot create a mandate for a referendum.
Consequently, the SNP have to assemble a majority for a referendum at Westminster. That, as you note, will need maturity - something they haven't displayed since losing in 2014. The biggest hurdle is probably finding a way to ensure that referendum 2 if lost doesn't immediately lead to referendum 3.
Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.
You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?
Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.
I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...
You're probably ahead of HMRC then!
They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.
Not yet…
You’ve heard of PreCrime?
This is PreTax. HMRC keeps three freaks in a basement who see your future earnings. By using some fairly basic Bistromatics, they pull your future earning backwards through space time and tax you on them.
Well, that's good news.
Because it means in the next four months I'm going to somehow earn in excess of £40,000.
No, that’s not good news.
Consider the ways that you might earn that kind of money.
Yes, high end consultancy for DfE
O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved DfE.
Ridiculous.
The last sentence, that is. That won’t happen in this space time continuum.
I’d gladly do consultancy work for them. I could easily explain what was wrong. Heck, I’d pay £40,000 for the privilege of telling Gibb, Acland-Hood and Spielman the problem is they’re all thick, ignorant and arrogant.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
There's the rub though. Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID? Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
What will a council require before issuing said ID - because I beat they will end up requiring a document that many people don't have.
Doesn't seem to be a problem in Northern Ireland.
Any evidence to back up that assertion?
I can't find any significant movement in Northern Ireland to abolish voter ID there.
Not the question I was asking - you said that in NI no one has difficulty getting the photo ID required to vote there.
Please provide the evidence you have that no one has difficultly getting appropriate photo ID.
Also it would be worth knowing the cost by council issued photo ID because I bet the council expect the voter to provide the photograph and that costs money.
No, I said that people not having the necessary documents to get the free voter ID card doesn't seem to be a problem in Northern Ireland - do you have evidence against that point rather than the point you thought I was making?
Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.
You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?
Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.
I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...
You're probably ahead of HMRC then!
They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.
You're self employed right? You can apply to reduce your payments on account online. It's automatically accepted. You just have to tell them how much tax you think you will owe next year, and pinky-swear it's an honest assessment.
Can I? Interestingly, nobody has been willing to tell me this. I shall look into that tomorrow as I really don’t want to have to send them the extra money I don’t owe right now.
Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.
You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?
Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.
I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...
You're probably ahead of HMRC then!
They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.
You're self employed right? You can apply to reduce your payments on account online. It's automatically accepted. You just have to tell them how much tax you think you will owe next year, and pinky-swear it's an honest assessment.
Can I? Interestingly, nobody has been willing to tell me this. I shall look into that tomorrow as I really don’t want to have to send them the extra money I don’t owe right now.
Are you paying "tax on account"? If so you can opt to reduce this if you feel their projection forward is unreasonable, or that perhaps this coming year you are likely to pay yourself less than last year. The catch is that you do not want them to think you are gaming the system otherwise they will screw you next time.
The Supreme Govt was correct to deny the right to a mock-referendum, but the Govt has erred in refusing to define a possible democratic path to SINDY.
There is a possible democratic path: get a majority in Parliament.
Surely the SNP response would be that they want independence for Scotland, and have indeed got a majority in the Scottish Parliament (with the pro-independence Scottish Greens) and in Westminster in terms of Scottish constituencies.
If your point is the SNP ought to shut up until they win in Mid Devon, Skegness, and Dover, it's just obvious silliness to think the constitutional arrangements for a relatively small proportion of the UK far away from those places is ever going to be a motivating issue at the ballot box.
Look - I'm a unionist and am uncomfortable about the SNP line of asking again and again until they get the result they want. But demanding the ludicrously unrealistic, or just sticking our fingers in our ears and screaming "NO" is calculated to antagonise and drive away. There does need to be some kind of maturely drawn out road map that doesn't make independence easy and does try to resolve uncertainties over what independence looks like (a major omission by both Salmond and Cameron in 2014) but at least makes it realistic if consistent, reasonably strong support within Scotland is there.
Surely it would, but the Scottish Parliament doesn't have the right to call a referendum. So logically votes for that parliament cannot create a mandate for a referendum.
Consequently, the SNP have to assemble a majority for a referendum at Westminster. That, as you note, will need maturity - something they haven't displayed since losing in 2014. The biggest hurdle is probably finding a way to ensure that referendum 2 if lost doesn't immediately lead to referendum 3.
I'm no apologist for the SNP, and think the legal case was a doomed piece of political theatre without legal merit.
But that mature discussion has to be two-way. Unionist parties do need to be willing to talk about the circumstances where they'd be open to a second referendum and the conditions around it to avoid a neverendum and to make it a lot clearer than was the case in 2014 (and indeed 2016) as to what a positive or negative vote means in practice. "Over my dead body" just isn't a good enough answer - it's unreasonable, alienating, and long-term counterproductive.
It is an MRP rather than a poll, so forecasts on the basis of demographics in seats. The Yougov MRP famously got it right in 2017, though in 2019 several companies did them less accurately. Maybe 2017 was just lucky for Yougov, or maybe late swings foxed it.
Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.
You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?
Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.
I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...
You're probably ahead of HMRC then!
They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.
You're self employed right? You can apply to reduce your payments on account online. It's automatically accepted. You just have to tell them how much tax you think you will owe next year, and pinky-swear it's an honest assessment.
Can I? Interestingly, nobody has been willing to tell me this. I shall look into that tomorrow as I really don’t want to have to send them the extra money I don’t owe right now.
You can reduce them yourself. If you end up owing more you will be charged interest at the standard rate.
Many unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
No referendum Ref2 with about 52% for independence Ref2 with about 52% for remain in UK.
All of them are horrible and divisive in wonderfully different ways. None promises a happy ending.
However, two are democratic outcomes, one is a fascist outcome.
As Winston Churchill said:
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…
The problem here is not the specific denial of an independence vote in current circumstance, which can at least reasonably be argued as merely a limitation on direct democracy (clearly less than a real generation + clear sign neither of a massive shift in polling (& you do have to look at polling else you'd have a referendum every day) nor an independence voting majority (despite the smidge if you self-select only list votes)), but the fact that it is at still at the total grace and favour of Westminster even were all those conditions met unarguably.
I do hope Labour's constitutional stuff includes clarifications on this, there are various opportunities for doing this within the working up of that plan. I can see the politics of not going there, but I don't necessarily agree with it.
The Lib Dem candidate at the last election is a great guy. I hope he will stand again.
Julian Tisi has been re-adopted as PPC. He should appeal to certain PBers. He has a degree in Politics and International Relations, he is a chartered accountant, he sings in a local choir, is a shareholder in a local community-run pub, and he is the son of an Italian knife-grinder ( sorry, not a flint knapper).
Not many polls with Con above 30%. Delta tends to be slightly favourable for the Cons.
“Delta tends to be slightly favourable for the Cons”
On 13-17 October, Labour led with DeltapollUK by 32pts (Lab 55%, Con 23%).
In the two months since then, the party's lead has more than halved to 13pts - and is now close enough to not even big enough to guarantee an overall majority - far cry from the 300+ majority indicated in October.
In an up and down year for polling, similar to the year leading up to a landslide majority for Boris, Things are changing very quickly again right in front our eyes. The certainty of a change of governing party is now so last month. Though, there are none so blind as those who still deny this.
Why? What is going on? Opposition parties are impotent, they cannot shape things in their favour as they have no power and no influence. Governments can. Governments come storming back in polls like this due to their performance. Two years of doing the right things, delivering on the voters priorities, immigration, cost of living, NHS waiting times, and using that delivery and their experience against their inexperienced waffley opponents in a general election campaign, and another working majority for 5 years can still be won by Sunak.
The recent poll movements and clearly telling us, all talk of sea change in UK politics is for the birds.
Using the Wikipedia opinion polling table, Delta on average gave a higher score for the conservatives than the average of all polls during September (0.9%), October (1.4%), November (1.5%) and December (2.6%).
Other polling companies have different trends. For example YouGov gives a lower score for the conservatives than average - September (-1.8%), October (-1.2%), November (-1.8%) and December (-3.4%).
Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.
You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?
Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.
I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...
You're probably ahead of HMRC then!
They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.
Not yet…
You’ve heard of PreCrime?
This is PreTax. HMRC keeps three freaks in a basement who see your future earnings. By using some fairly basic Bistromatics, they pull your future earning backwards through space time and tax you on them.
Well, that's good news.
Because it means in the next four months I'm going to somehow earn in excess of £40,000.
Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.
You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?
Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.
I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...
You're probably ahead of HMRC then!
They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.
You're self employed right? You can apply to reduce your payments on account online. It's automatically accepted. You just have to tell them how much tax you think you will owe next year, and pinky-swear it's an honest assessment.
Can I? Interestingly, nobody has been willing to tell me this. I shall look into that tomorrow as I really don’t want to have to send them the extra money I don’t owe right now.
Are you paying "tax on account"? If so you can opt to reduce this if you feel their projection forward is unreasonable, or that perhaps this coming year you are likely to pay yourself less than last year. The catch is that you do not want them to think you are gaming the system otherwise they will screw you next time.
I don't really care what they think. This year they almost certainly owe me a rebate but are demanding £2400 on account. Which, given work is a little slower than I had hoped plus trying to sort out this estate (which I'm going to have to pay quite a lot of bills for until probate comes through, as not everyone has been as reasonable as British Gas and deferred payment) is a lot more than I can afford.
The Lib Dem candidate at the last election is a great guy. I hope he will stand again.
Julian Tisi has been re-adopted as PPC. He should appeal to certain PBers. He has a degree in Politics and International Relations, he is a chartered accountant, he sings in a local choir, is a shareholder in a local community-run pub, and he is the son of an Italian knife-grinder ( sorry, not a flint knapper).
The Lib Dem candidate at the last election is a great guy. I hope he will stand again.
Julian Tisi has been re-adopted as PPC. He should appeal to certain PBers. He has a degree in Politics and International Relations, he is a chartered accountant, he sings in a local choir, is a shareholder in a local community-run pub, and he is the son of an Italian knife-grinder ( sorry, not a flint knapper).
Many unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
No referendum Ref2 with about 52% for independence Ref2 with about 52% for remain in UK.
All of them are horrible and divisive in wonderfully different ways. None promises a happy ending.
However, two are democratic outcomes, one is a fascist outcome.
As Winston Churchill said:
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…
I'm not sure a great foundation stone of fascism is suppressing Scottish independence.
It is an MRP rather than a poll, so forecasts on the basis of demographics in seats. The Yougov MRP famously got it right in 2017, though in 2019 several companies did them less accurately. Maybe 2017 was just lucky for Yougov, or maybe late swings foxed it.
Interestingly, it shows Somerton & Frome as one of the seats the Tories retain, which I somehow doubt given the current, er, situation.
Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.
You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?
Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.
I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...
You're probably ahead of HMRC then!
They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.
You're self employed right? You can apply to reduce your payments on account online. It's automatically accepted. You just have to tell them how much tax you think you will owe next year, and pinky-swear it's an honest assessment.
Can I? Interestingly, nobody has been willing to tell me this. I shall look into that tomorrow as I really don’t want to have to send them the extra money I don’t owe right now.
You can reduce them yourself. If you end up owing more you will be charged interest at the standard rate.
Yes, I reduced my advance payment on private earnings over Covid to zero. It is fairly straightforward to do so.
It is an MRP rather than a poll, so forecasts on the basis of demographics in seats. The Yougov MRP famously got it right in 2017, though in 2019 several companies did them less accurately. Maybe 2017 was just lucky for Yougov, or maybe late swings foxed it.
Interestingly, it shows Somerton & Frome as one of the seats the Tories retain, which I somehow doubt given the current, er, situation.
Indeed, but Lab takes Rutland and Melton doesn't seem plausible.
Incidentally it looks like the old boundaries to me.
It is an MRP rather than a poll, so forecasts on the basis of demographics in seats. The Yougov MRP famously got it right in 2017, though in 2019 several companies did them less accurately. Maybe 2017 was just lucky for Yougov, or maybe late swings foxed it.
Interestingly, it shows Somerton & Frome as one of the seats the Tories retain, which I somehow doubt given the current, er, situation.
Indeed, but Lab takes Rutland and Melton doesn't seem plausible.
Incidentally it looks like the old boundaries to me.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
There's the rub though. Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID? Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
What will a council require before issuing said ID - because I beat they will end up requiring a document that many people don't have.
Doesn't seem to be a problem in Northern Ireland.
Any evidence to back up that assertion?
I can't find any significant movement in Northern Ireland to abolish voter ID there.
Not the question I was asking - you said that in NI no one has difficulty getting the photo ID required to vote there.
Please provide the evidence you have that no one has difficultly getting appropriate photo ID.
Also it would be worth knowing the cost by council issued photo ID because I bet the council expect the voter to provide the photograph and that costs money.
No, I said that people not having the necessary documents to get the free voter ID card doesn't seem to be a problem in Northern Ireland - do you have evidence against that point rather than the point you thought I was making?
It is an MRP rather than a poll, so forecasts on the basis of demographics in seats. The Yougov MRP famously got it right in 2017, though in 2019 several companies did them less accurately. Maybe 2017 was just lucky for Yougov, or maybe late swings foxed it.
Interestingly, it shows Somerton & Frome as one of the seats the Tories retain, which I somehow doubt given the current, er, situation.
Indeed, but Lab takes Rutland and Melton doesn't seem plausible.
Incidentally it looks like the old boundaries to me.
Re government departments and phone access. I wrote to the OAP service about a change of address. Having received no response I spent an hour calling them to be told they had the change but never reply to such letters! There is no website to access the annual review statement - the one thing I need for my Spanish tax return each year so if it does not arrive by post it's more hours on the phone. They told me they're piloting one. It's like talking to people from another planet and civil servants say they're overworked and underpaid. Quite extraordinary state of affairs in 2022.
Many unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
No referendum Ref2 with about 52% for independence Ref2 with about 52% for remain in UK.
All of them are horrible and divisive in wonderfully different ways. None promises a happy ending.
However, two are democratic outcomes, one is a fascist outcome.
As Winston Churchill said:
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…
You had your referendum. You lost. Get over it. Scottish independence is also not necessarily democratic even if you had won. There are very large parts of Scotland that don't want it, indeed the concentration of nationalism in the referendum was all in tiny areas. Those that don't want it would no doubt be conveniently ignored by you. Should they declare independence from the new "independent" Scotland? All nations are artificial constructions. If the UK can be broken up then so can Scotland.
How about the Nats can keep Glasgow, while the nice bits can remain in the UK? All the whingeing Nats can move there and fence themselves in from the rest of the world. I am sure it won't be long before they will all fight amongst themselves about the purity of their Scottishness.
Yet the SNP have won stonking victories at every subsequent election. And the mandate that No won on was proven to be a lie.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.
Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.
What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?
Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.
I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS. ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.
It would be a shame if partisan campaigners against securing the ballot get their way against the Electoral Commission's recommendations. Given that my understanding is that the current plans mirror the system in Northern Ireland and include the issuing of a free voter ID as part of the registration process, this shouldn't be an insurmountable hurdle.
There's the rub though. Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID? Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
What will a council require before issuing said ID - because I beat they will end up requiring a document that many people don't have.
Doesn't seem to be a problem in Northern Ireland.
Any evidence to back up that assertion?
I can't find any significant movement in Northern Ireland to abolish voter ID there.
Not the question I was asking - you said that in NI no one has difficulty getting the photo ID required to vote there.
Please provide the evidence you have that no one has difficultly getting appropriate photo ID.
Also it would be worth knowing the cost by council issued photo ID because I bet the council expect the voter to provide the photograph and that costs money.
No, I said that people not having the necessary documents to get the free voter ID card doesn't seem to be a problem in Northern Ireland - do you have evidence against that point rather than the point you thought I was making?
The problem in NI as I understand is once you have the ID you don't necessarily need the person in order to vote. Et voila vote harvesting.
Comments
Many unionists welcomed last month’s judgment from the Supreme Court that the Scottish parliament does not have the authority to hold a ballot on independence. However, that pronouncement has not done unionism itself any favours.
… just saying no to another ballot does not look like a viable long-term strategy.
https://archive.ph/owVa4
Consider the ways that you might earn that kind of money.
Yes, high end consultancy for DfE
O cruel, needless misunderstanding! O stubborn, self-willed exile from the loving breast! Two gin-scented tears trickled down the sides of his nose. But it was all right, everything was all right, the struggle was finished. He had won the victory over himself. He loved DfE.
From today, it must stop the absurd pretence that a GRC is only a bit of paper with no consequences for anyone else. The court says that as things stand a GRC changes whether someone is a woman or a man for the law governing single sex services and anti-discrimination measures.
The exemptions under the Equality Act do not cover all aspects of the Act. Providers are increasingly unwilling to use them even when they can, under pressure from activists. We believe this judgment will make it harder for them to do so for GRC holders.
MSPs will decide next week whether to hand out GRCs to a much larger, undefined group. If they decide to do so then, under the law as it stands, they will be turning back the clock further on women’s ability to find single sex services, when those matter to them most.
https://murrayblackburnmackenzie.org/2022/12/13/mbm-statement-on-the-ruling-in-for-ws-vs-the-scottish-ministers/
Every press article I've read has said much the same as you just did.
But the '20-30 years' is as much a guess as anyone else's. Note it's only a fortnight back that the physicists at the Royal Society meeting reckoned it might take 2-3 years to reach Q >1.
The significance of the result, from what I understand, is that they've arrived at a set of (likely reproducible) conditions for creating nuclear ignition.
It's taken two and a half decades to get there (many, many years longer than originally expected); now they have, exploring how to increase gain by tweaking those conditions becomes a feasible set of experiments, rather than something that was just a concept.
NIF was never intended to come up with a practical approach to fusion power - but its results will inform the work of the half dozen commercial companies that are working on inertial fusion. And likely guarantee US government funding for the effort.
Broad centrist grown up non-populist opinion rather agrees that political solutions don't exist at this moment, and that boring, reasonably honest, middling competence would be a breath of fresh air, and clear water in a desert.
If it is time for a change, then, as always there is only one other party to look to to lead. This time it's Labour.
So do not expect worthwhile stuff from them pre-election on: EU, NHS, social care, migration, tax, spend, debt, deficit, inflation, housing, transport.
They may have a view on whether it is safe for babies to have plastic ducks in the bath but that will be about it.
Who will issue it? Where? How long will it take? What ID will be needed to get ID?
Simply saying "Councils" does not cut it. It takes 10 weeks for a passport. How long for free ID?
(it's not a great piece - but nice to hear it at least being discussed)
Which is depressing.
The response in Estonia is to redouble the efforts in support of Ukraine, with even more refugees being found space and any practical help Estonia can give is being used to help the Ukrainian forces in any way possible. However the mood is darkening. Direct threats are being made against us, and the sickening carnage that the Russians have unleashed is hardening attitudes here, very strongly. The increasing view is that Russia has unleashed the unforgivable curse and the only way this can end is the complete end of the regime, and even that will not make Russia and its neighbours into friends. "Rossya delenda est" seems like a genuine policy when we learn of the scale of the Russian crimes. Ukraine is not just a war zone, it is a crime scene, and the idea that we should forget natural justice when it comes to vermin like Bout, Peskov, et. al. is going to be a near impossible thing to swallow.
I am flying out tomorrow, assuming that I make the connections I will get to London tomorrow afternoon. With the transport chaos and strikes it feels like I am headed from the frying pan into the fire.
No referendum
Ref2 with about 52% for independence
Ref2 with about 52% for remain in UK.
All of them are horrible and divisive in wonderfully different ways. None promises a happy ending.
Unless you are personally insulted by the comparison?
Sorry to be the one to have to break it to you. Thoughts and prayers etc.
I have been very critical of the Conservative/populist Party in the last few years, but the one thing that is likely to cause me to put a cross in the Tory box is the thought of a Labour landslide.
As Winston Churchill said:
Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.…
Incidentally, I thought the other interesting thing about that projection was the number of LD claims in the Scottish Lowlands. Not at all what I would have expected.
And that is down to the defective personalities currently infesting the Conservative party.
Enough to actually do anything with that win?
Remember that the issuing of photo ID goes well beyond what the electoral commission suggested which was that insisting on the sent photo cards was more than enough.
Let's be blunt - it's this Government trying to introduce ID cards by another means.
Now there’s a Freudian slip if ever I saw one.
How about the Nats can keep Glasgow, while the nice bits can remain in the UK? All the whingeing Nats can move there and fence themselves in from the rest of the world. I am sure it won't be long before they will all fight amongst themselves about the purity of their Scottishness.
I'd speculate two reasons for this:
1) Lab is winning mainly Leave voters, who are efficiently distributed.
2) Lots of 'proportionate swing' in MRPs due to how polling works. Means bigger swings in safer Tory seats -> thus Lab wins seats in MRPs that it wouldn't in reality.
https://twitter.com/JMagosh/status/1602643414666854401
First bit explains Starmer's caution on you-know-what, second bit might point towards toning down the more outlandish bits of the prediction.
If your point is the SNP ought to shut up until they win in Mid Devon, Skegness, and Dover, it's just obvious silliness to think the constitutional arrangements for a relatively small proportion of the UK far away from those places is ever going to be a motivating issue at the ballot box.
Look - I'm a unionist and am uncomfortable about the SNP line of asking again and again until they get the result they want. But demanding the ludicrously unrealistic, or just sticking our fingers in our ears and screaming "NO" is calculated to antagonise and drive away. There does need to be some kind of maturely drawn out road map that doesn't make independence easy and does try to resolve uncertainties over what independence looks like (a major omission by both Salmond and Cameron in 2014) but at least makes it realistic if consistent, reasonably strong support within Scotland is there.
Please provide the evidence you have that no one has difficultly getting appropriate photo ID.
Also it would be worth knowing the cost by council issued photo ID because I bet the council expect the voter to provide the photograph and that costs money.
Is ydoethur writing the BBC headlines?
Consequently, the SNP have to assemble a majority for a referendum at Westminster. That, as you note, will need maturity - something they haven't displayed since losing in 2014. The biggest hurdle is probably finding a way to ensure that referendum 2 if lost doesn't immediately lead to referendum 3.
The last sentence, that is. That won’t happen in this space time continuum.
I’d gladly do consultancy work for them. I could easily explain what was wrong. Heck, I’d pay £40,000 for the privilege of telling Gibb, Acland-Hood and Spielman the problem is they’re all thick, ignorant and arrogant.
But that mature discussion has to be two-way. Unionist parties do need to be willing to talk about the circumstances where they'd be open to a second referendum and the conditions around it to avoid a neverendum and to make it a lot clearer than was the case in 2014 (and indeed 2016) as to what a positive or negative vote means in practice. "Over my dead body" just isn't a good enough answer - it's unreasonable, alienating, and long-term counterproductive.
I do hope Labour's constitutional stuff includes clarifications on this, there are various opportunities for doing this within the working up of that plan. I can see the politics of not going there, but I don't necessarily agree with it.
I'd write about the need for signposts to help the poor lost soles.
Other polling companies have different trends. For example YouGov gives a lower score for the conservatives than average - September (-1.8%), October (-1.2%), November (-1.8%) and December (-3.4%).
I could do them for many days- a Cowes Week, if you like.
Incidentally it looks like the old boundaries to me.
Croatia just love taking it to extra time.
https://www.eoni.org.uk/Electoral-Identity-Card/How-to-apply
You basically need to travel to Belfast or spend a few pounds to get a photo and jump through some hoops.
I can see why many don’t bother (which is after all the Tories plan).