Windsor – the next LD by-election success? Maybe. Maybe not – politicalbetting.com

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Windsor – the next LD by-election success? Maybe. Maybe not – politicalbetting.com

There is a lot of speculation this afternoon about the future of the Windsor MP who this morning was declared bankrupt over debts of £1.7m owed to the Inland Revenue.

Read the full story here

Stark_Dawning

Not sure that mobbing the place with Lib Dem activists will go down well with the Windsor residents. We have enough problems with outsiders getting under our feet with the bloody tourists!

TheScreamingEagles

This has been going on for years, I think Mr Afriyie has exhausted the patience of his creditors so this is why this rare procedure is happening.

Windsor is cursed with some awful MPs, Michael Trend was a bit of a shit when it came to money.

TheScreamingEagles

FPT

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

HYUFD

Given Windsor and Maidenhead voted 54% Remain the LDs would be favourites to take the seat in a by election.

Though having said that Sunak is polling better in the bluewall seats than Boris and Truss were

OnlyLivingBoy

The Lib Dem candidate at the last election is a great guy. I hope he will stand again.

TheScreamingEagles

Nicholas Soames absolutely called Adam Afriyie right.

Soames to Afriyie

"You are a chateau bottled nuclear powered ****. You are totally f***ing disloyal, a f***ing disgrace to your party, your fellow MPs, your prime minister and your country."

"This is nothing more than a grotesque f***ing vanity project to promote your absurd f***ing campaign to become party leader. You aren’t up to it, man!"

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/21/adam-afriyie-nicholas-soames_n_4134750.html

williamglenn

Stark_Dawning said:

Not sure that mobbing the place with Lib Dem activists will go down well with the Windsor residents. We have enough problems with outsiders getting under our feet with the bloody tourists!

Do you live in the castle?

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

Stark_Dawning

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has been going on for years, I think Mr Afriyie has exhausted the patience of his creditors so this is why this rare procedure is happening.

Windsor is cursed with some awful MPs, Michael Trend was a bit of a shit when it came to money.

Yes, Trend was the proto-Expenses Scandal MP. His predecessor was Dr Alan Glyn who, according to Matthew Parris's memoirs, was obsessed with state executions and ate prawns with the shells still on.

WillG

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

They restricted normal human life during the Blitz too. In massive emergencies it happens to save tens of thousands of lives.

TOPPING

On topic

Bloody hell. How did he run up that kind of debt?

RochdalePioneers

TOPPING said:

On topic

Bloody hell. How did he run up that kind of debt?

Exactly where my brain went!!!

TOPPING

WillG said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

They restricted normal human life during the Blitz too. In massive emergencies it happens to save tens of thousands of lives.

It is not the first time that Covid has been compared with war. Which is of course is a useful analogy if you want to impress people how serious any situation happens to be.

I do not think it is a valid analogy. I have previously said that I disagreed with but understood the government's first response in March 2020 as we didn't know what we were dealing with and the pictures from Northern Italy were disturbing.

After that, not at all. @BartholomewRoberts is absolutely right. Better a sinner who whatever the phrase is, etc.

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has been going on for years, I think Mr Afriyie has exhausted the patience of his creditors so this is why this rare procedure is happening.

Windsor is cursed with some awful MPs, Michael Trend was a bit of a shit when it came to money.

According to Wiki, "in February 2013, Afriyie's wealth was estimated at £13 million to £100 million."

How did he manage to spaff all that up the wall?

LostPassword

RochdalePioneers said:

TOPPING said:

On topic

Bloody hell. How did he run up that kind of debt?

Exactly where my brain went!!!

Also, wouldn't this be one reason why you'd set up a limited company, so if something goes terribly wrong the company goes bankrupt and you don't?

Foxy

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has been going on for years, I think Mr Afriyie has exhausted the patience of his creditors so this is why this rare procedure is happening.

Windsor is cursed with some awful MPs, Michael Trend was a bit of a shit when it came to money.

According to Wiki, "in February 2013, Afriyie's wealth was estimated at £13 million to £100 million."

How did he manage to spaff all that up the wall?

Generally Conservative MPs are very good at feathering their own nests rather than spaffing it away.

TheScreamingEagles

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

TheScreamingEagles

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has been going on for years, I think Mr Afriyie has exhausted the patience of his creditors so this is why this rare procedure is happening.

Windsor is cursed with some awful MPs, Michael Trend was a bit of a shit when it came to money.

According to Wiki, "in February 2013, Afriyie's wealth was estimated at £13 million to £100 million."

How did he manage to spaff all that up the wall?

Paper wealth?

RochdalePioneers

Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.

LostPassword

TOPPING said:

WillG said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

They restricted normal human life during the Blitz too. In massive emergencies it happens to save tens of thousands of lives.

It is not the first time that Covid has been compared with war. Which is of course is a useful analogy if you want to impress people how serious any situation happens to be.

I do not think it is a valid analogy. I have previously said that I disagreed with but understood the government's first response in March 2020 as we didn't know what we were dealing with and the pictures from Northern Italy were disturbing.

After that, not at all. @BartholomewRoberts is absolutely right. Better a sinner who whatever the phrase is, etc.

I disagree with Bart on this, and it seems you do too. His position is that we should have continued as close to normal life as possible, and essentially pretended that thousands of people weren't dying every day and the health system had collapsed.

My position is that the government should have recommended that people avoid social mixing, etc, to control the spread of the virus, but they shouldn't have been passing laws to control how many people were allowed into private homes, or to meet in groups in public spaces, etc.

This seems to accord with the, "trusted to do the right thing without the law dictating to us," that you have in an earlier comment, which isn't Bart's position.

kyf_100

RochdalePioneers said:

Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.

This was always the case, even pre-Covid times. It's deliberate, and famously so.

The only way to communicate with the tax man is via a letter sent recorded delivery if you want a proper response. Ditto the DVLA.

Nigelb

US inflation figures look pretty decent.

And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).

2023 might be rather a good year for the Biden administration.

MaxPB

RochdalePioneers said:

Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.

Once again, it's not as though we don't spend the money. What we need is a major, major rethink of how we run public services. Everything is for the benefit of the state, not the end consumer. Until that changes we will be stuck with second rate public provision and paying through the nose for it.

TheScreamingEagles

So reading between the lines, Mr Afriyie game Barclays a PG for his business, when it went bankrupt he was on the hook for it.

Oh he was a litigant in person in the proceedings.

TheScreamingEagles

RochdalePioneers said:

Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.

You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?

Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.

Nigelb

Azerbaijan/Armenia getting ugly again.

https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1602692558777470976
Things moving very quickly in Nagorno-Karabakh. Here’s a summary:

🛣 Lachin Corridor blocked for +30 hours now
🏡 3 villages along only route in/out cut off entirely
🇦🇲 Arm. officials warn of prelude to ethnic cleansing
🇦🇿 Az. media says ‘environmental protesters’ blocking route

Driver

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

Your continuing support for it makes it more likely you will have to.

TheScreamingEagles

Driver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

Your continuing support for it makes it more likely you will have to.

No.

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

There were no good options and a massive infringement of human liberties was at the more egregious end of the scale. I don't think you enjoyed it; I do think that the government played on the fear factor to encourage people to think it was a good idea. Not you, of course, you are far too smart. But look at the polls. Scroll through PB in 2020 and look at some of the responses to you-know-who.

You one way or another applauded an unprecedented restriction on our liberties. Is what is the problem with people like you.

TheScreamingEagles

.

Nigelb said:

Azerbaijan/Armenia getting ugly again.

https://twitter.com/GabrielCSGavin/status/1602692558777470976
Things moving very quickly in Nagorno-Karabakh. Here’s a summary:

🛣 Lachin Corridor blocked for +30 hours now
🏡 3 villages along only route in/out cut off entirely
🇦🇲 Arm. officials warn of prelude to ethnic cleansing
🇦🇿 Az. media says ‘environmental protesters’ blocking route

Kicking off between India and China again.

Chinese and Indian troops have clashed in a disputed Himalayan border region for the first time in more than two years, with reports of dozens injured.

At least 20 Indian soldiers were injured in the incident on 9 December in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh, the Indian army said on Tuesday. The clash was the most serious since June 2020, when at least 24 soldiers died in violent hand-to-hand combat, and comes after months of major acts of disengagement by both militaries in the long-running dispute.

Addressing India’s parliament, the defence minister, Rajnath Singh, accused soldiers from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of attempting to transgress the de facto border known as the line of actual control (LAC) “and unilaterally change the status quo”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/13/chinese-and-indian-troops-in-fresh-skirmish-at-himalayan-border

RochdalePioneers

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.

You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?

Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.

I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...

Driver

TheScreamingEagles said:

Driver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

Your continuing support for it makes it more likely you will have to.

No.

Sure it does. People have accepted lockdown as necessary, meaning it will be the first resort in future.

You might be right that in March 2020 there were no good options. By May 2020 it was blindingly clear from the data that lockdown was a massive overreaction and people's voluntary measures had been good enough. By then, however, lockdown had been normalised by endless media doommongering.

TOPPING

LostPassword said:

TOPPING said:

WillG said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

They restricted normal human life during the Blitz too. In massive emergencies it happens to save tens of thousands of lives.

It is not the first time that Covid has been compared with war. Which is of course is a useful analogy if you want to impress people how serious any situation happens to be.

I do not think it is a valid analogy. I have previously said that I disagreed with but understood the government's first response in March 2020 as we didn't know what we were dealing with and the pictures from Northern Italy were disturbing.

After that, not at all. @BartholomewRoberts is absolutely right. Better a sinner who whatever the phrase is, etc.

I disagree with Bart on this, and it seems you do too. His position is that we should have continued as close to normal life as possible, and essentially pretended that thousands of people weren't dying every day and the health system had collapsed.

My position is that the government should have recommended that people avoid social mixing, etc, to control the spread of the virus, but they shouldn't have been passing laws to control how many people were allowed into private homes, or to meet in groups in public spaces, etc.

This seems to accord with the, "trusted to do the right thing without the law dictating to us," that you have in an earlier comment, which isn't Bart's position.

Yes sorry that is right but it can be a polarising topic and hence I went for Bart's main thrust.

But yes I don't blame the government for taking action but I do disagree with the degree of action and the fact that they repeated it.

TheScreamingEagles

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

There were no good options and a massive infringement of human liberties was at the more egregious end of the scale. I don't think you enjoyed it; I do think that the government played on the fear factor to encourage people to think it was a good idea. Not you, of course, you are far too smart. But look at the polls. Scroll through PB in 2020 and look at some of the responses to you-know-who.

You one way or another applauded an unprecedented restriction on our liberties. Is what is the problem with people like you.

It really wasn't unprecedented.

Mrs Thatcher introduced legislation which was much stringent.

• Applying certain public health powers used for notifiable diseases to AIDS. This allowed patients with AIDS to be subject to compulsory medical examination, removal to and detention in a hospital upon order by a justice of the peace (if necessary ex parte). It also extended regulations on the disposal of the body of someone who had died of AIDS.
  
  
• Section 38 of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 (regarding detention in hospital) was extended in order to allow for detention if a justice of the peace thought that a patient would not take proper precautions to prevent the spread of AIDS in a wider sense than in the original act.
  

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

There were no good options and a massive infringement of human liberties was at the more egregious end of the scale. I don't think you enjoyed it; I do think that the government played on the fear factor to encourage people to think it was a good idea. Not you, of course, you are far too smart. But look at the polls. Scroll through PB in 2020 and look at some of the responses to you-know-who.

You one way or another applauded an unprecedented restriction on our liberties. Is what is the problem with people like you.

It really was unprecedented.

Mrs Thatcher introduced legislation which was much stringent.

• Applying certain public health powers used for notifiable diseases to AIDS. This allowed patients with AIDS to be subject to compulsory medical examination, removal to and detention in a hospital upon order by a justice of the peace (if necessary ex parte). It also extended regulations on the disposal of the body of someone who had died of AIDS.
  
  
• Section 38 of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 (regarding detention in hospital) was extended in order to allow for detention if a justice of the peace thought that a patient would not take proper precautions to prevent the spread of AIDS in a wider sense than in the original act.
  

So precedented (I'm guessing you meant to say it really wasn't unprecedented). Still abhorrent imo. And repeated which makes it endless times worse.

ydoethur

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.

You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?

Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.

I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...

You're probably ahead of HMRC then!

They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.

squareroot2

On thread if the LDs do win, it will be another pyrrhic victory

ydoethur

No Naseem Shah for the final test:

https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/pak-vs-eng-2022-2nd-test-pakistan-naseem-shah-ruled-out-of-karachi-test-due-to-shoulder-injury-1349546

I hope he can overcome this injury, which seems to be a long-term problem. He's a fine bowler and by all accounts a really nice person.

Driver

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

There were no good options and a massive infringement of human liberties was at the more egregious end of the scale. I don't think you enjoyed it; I do think that the government played on the fear factor to encourage people to think it was a good idea. Not you, of course, you are far too smart. But look at the polls. Scroll through PB in 2020 and look at some of the responses to you-know-who.

You one way or another applauded an unprecedented restriction on our liberties. Is what is the problem with people like you.

It really wasn't unprecedented.

Mrs Thatcher introduced legislation which was much stringent.

• Applying certain public health powers used for notifiable diseases to AIDS. This allowed patients with AIDS to be subject to compulsory medical examination, removal to and detention in a hospital upon order by a justice of the peace (if necessary ex parte). It also extended regulations on the disposal of the body of someone who had died of AIDS.
  
  
• Section 38 of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 (regarding detention in hospital) was extended in order to allow for detention if a justice of the peace thought that a patient would not take proper precautions to prevent the spread of AIDS in a wider sense than in the original act.
  

Yeah, you see how those things applied only to people who were actually ill?

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

On thread if the LDs do win, it will be another pyrrhic victory

There is no way taking a seat your opponents have held for the thick end of a century and a half is a Pyrrhic victory. Even if they lose it at the next election.

squareroot2

Test

TheScreamingEagles

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

On thread if the LDs do win, it will be another pyrrhic victory

There is no way taking a seat your opponents have held for the thick end of a century and a half is a Pyrrhic victory. Even if they lose it at the next election.

It woukd be like Orpington in 1962

You mean it turned out to be a harbinger that the Tories would lose the next election, which they did.

squareroot2

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This has been going on for years, I think Mr Afriyie has exhausted the patience of his creditors so this is why this rare procedure is happening.

Windsor is cursed with some awful MPs, Michael Trend was a bit of a shit when it came to money.

According to Wiki, "in February 2013, Afriyie's wealth was estimated at £13 million to £100 million."

How did he manage to spaff all that up the wall?

You can make a lot of money as an entrepreneur... and lose a lot. The wealth is often in shares rather than physical property, and share certificates can notoriously go from worth a lot to nothing very quickly as the valuation is often based on predictions on future business performance that do not come to pass. Although companies are limited liability, the people behind them do take out loans and give guarantees to support them so can not just lose everything but everything plus some more.

So it's not like a lottery winner "spaffing" the money. The lottery winner has £20 million (or whatever) in the bank, and ought to be set for life through prudent, balanced, modest return investment. The entrepreneur never had £20 million - he/she had a business people valued at £20 million and that is VERY different.

MoonRabbit

NickyBreakspear said:

Andy_JS said:

carnforth said:

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45% (-3)
CON: 32% (+4)
LDEM: 8% (-2)

Delta

Edit: nevermind, already done

Labour wouldn't be guaranteed to win a majority under the new boundaries with these figures.

https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1602628285883715584

Not many polls with Con above 30%. Delta tends to be slightly favourable for the Cons.

“Delta tends to be slightly favourable for the Cons”

On 13-17 October, Labour led with DeltapollUK by 32pts (Lab 55%, Con 23%).

In the two months since then, the party's lead has more than halved to 13pts - and is now close enough to not even big enough to guarantee an overall majority - far cry from the 300+ majority indicated in October.

In an up and down year for polling, similar to the year leading up to a landslide majority for Boris, Things are changing very quickly again right in front our eyes. The certainty of a change of governing party is now so last month. Though, there are none so blind as those who still deny this.

Why? What is going on? Opposition parties are impotent, they cannot shape things in their favour as they have no power and no influence. Governments can. Governments come storming back in polls like this due to their performance. Two years of doing the right things, delivering on the voters priorities, immigration, cost of living, NHS waiting times, and using that delivery and their experience against their inexperienced waffley opponents in a general election campaign, and another working majority for 5 years can still be won by Sunak.

The recent poll movements and clearly telling us, all talk of sea change in UK politics is for the birds.

FeersumEnjineeya

Nigelb said:

US inflation figures look pretty decent.

And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).

2023 might be rather a good year for the Biden administration.

The significance of the fusion result (achieving Q > 1 by the NIF) has been massively overstated by the press. Going from Q somewhat less that 1 to Q > 1 is a significant achievement, but it is an incremental improvement, not a breakthrough. As Julio Friedmann (chief scientist at Carbon Direct and a former chief energy technologist at Lawrence Livermore) admits at the end of the CNN article, "This will not contribute meaningfully to climate abatement in the next 20-30 years. This is the difference between lighting a match and building a gas turbine."

MoonRabbit

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

SirNorfolkPassmore

On topic, I think the likelihood of a by-election is very low. Bankruptcy restriction orders only affect a tiny proportion of bankruptcies (a couple of percent) and normally relate to some kind of fraud or at least a strong suggestion of that.

Unless there is more to this case than meets the eye (accepting there could possibly be) it just looks like an entrepreneur who made some bad decisions. The bank are now trying to push him along to sell his home and radically downsize, and he's been stringing it all out in the hope something turns up. But that's pretty normal, albeit rather sad, stuff. Can't really see more to it from where I'm standing.

Stuartinromford

Driver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

There were no good options and a massive infringement of human liberties was at the more egregious end of the scale. I don't think you enjoyed it; I do think that the government played on the fear factor to encourage people to think it was a good idea. Not you, of course, you are far too smart. But look at the polls. Scroll through PB in 2020 and look at some of the responses to you-know-who.

You one way or another applauded an unprecedented restriction on our liberties. Is what is the problem with people like you.

It really wasn't unprecedented.

Mrs Thatcher introduced legislation which was much stringent.

• Applying certain public health powers used for notifiable diseases to AIDS. This allowed patients with AIDS to be subject to compulsory medical examination, removal to and detention in a hospital upon order by a justice of the peace (if necessary ex parte). It also extended regulations on the disposal of the body of someone who had died of AIDS.
  
  
• Section 38 of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 (regarding detention in hospital) was extended in order to allow for detention if a justice of the peace thought that a patient would not take proper precautions to prevent the spread of AIDS in a wider sense than in the original act.
  

Yeah, you see how those things applied only to people who were actually ill?

So, what do you do with an infectious disease where you can pass it on to other people without knowing you have it yourself?

Chris

Nigelb said:

And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).

Not peer reviewed according to Physics Today, the only coverage I've been able to find that wasn't unbelievably dumbed down.
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.2.20221213a/full/

The news media seem to have been going for their own breakthrough in low quality reporting. An even more challenging task than sustainable nuclear fusion.

WillG

TOPPING said:

WillG said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

They restricted normal human life during the Blitz too. In massive emergencies it happens to save tens of thousands of lives.

It is not the first time that Covid has been compared with war. Which is of course is a useful analogy if you want to impress people how serious any situation happens to be.

I do not think it is a valid analogy. I have previously said that I disagreed with but understood the government's first response in March 2020 as we didn't know what we were dealing with and the pictures from Northern Italy were disturbing.

After that, not at all. @BartholomewRoberts is absolutely right. Better a sinner who whatever the phrase is, etc.

The main difference is a lot more people died from COVID.

squareroot2

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Gardenwalker

Afriye is not going to stand down and why should he?

Driver

Stuartinromford said:

Driver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

There were no good options and a massive infringement of human liberties was at the more egregious end of the scale. I don't think you enjoyed it; I do think that the government played on the fear factor to encourage people to think it was a good idea. Not you, of course, you are far too smart. But look at the polls. Scroll through PB in 2020 and look at some of the responses to you-know-who.

You one way or another applauded an unprecedented restriction on our liberties. Is what is the problem with people like you.

It really wasn't unprecedented.

Mrs Thatcher introduced legislation which was much stringent.

• Applying certain public health powers used for notifiable diseases to AIDS. This allowed patients with AIDS to be subject to compulsory medical examination, removal to and detention in a hospital upon order by a justice of the peace (if necessary ex parte). It also extended regulations on the disposal of the body of someone who had died of AIDS.
  
  
• Section 38 of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 (regarding detention in hospital) was extended in order to allow for detention if a justice of the peace thought that a patient would not take proper precautions to prevent the spread of AIDS in a wider sense than in the original act.
  

Yeah, you see how those things applied only to people who were actually ill?

So, what do you do with an infectious disease where you can pass it on to other people without knowing you have it yourself?

Advise, encourage, warn.

Also true of pre-symptomatic HIV infection.

SirNorfolkPassmore

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

As a Liberal Democrat, I am absolutely appalled and deeply personally offended by this shocking comment.

It's "squib" with a "b", not "squid" with a "d", FFS.

Other than that, fair enough.

Benpointer

TheScreamingEagles said:

So reading between the lines, Mr Afriyie game Barclays a PG for his business, when it went bankrupt he was on the hook for it.

Oh he was a litigant in person in the proceedings.

Is that because he couldn't afford a lawyer or no one would take his case?

Gardenwalker

Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.

FeersumEnjineeya

Chris said:

Nigelb said:

And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).

Not peer reviewed according to Physics Today, the only coverage I've been able to find that wasn't unbelievably dumbed down.
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.2.20221213a/full/

The news media seem to have been going for their own breakthrough in low quality reporting. An even more challenging task than sustainable nuclear fusion.

I don't doubt that the results as reported are correct and will pass peer review; it's the significance of the results that has been massively overstated. Expect everything to go quiet again for a while on the fusion front, at least until ITER is up and running.

londonpubman

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.

LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.

MoonRabbit

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

Gardenwalker

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Well they would say that mid term, they nearly always do, especially with Boris and Truss fresh in their heads.

But you are confidently stating about something two years hence, after 2 years of stable Sunak government delivering the voters priorities fresh in the mind - which is why your statement is vague unscientific daftness, isn’t it?

As opposed to your quixotic attempts to ramp the Tories.

We can all see the polls. It is not surprise to see a moderate narrowing. Nevertheless, Rishi’s honeymoon has been very disappointing and all psephological history suggests the Tories have a mountain to climb.

Of course it’s not impossible, but it looks unlikely and anecdotage helps explain why.

Chris

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Chris said:

Nigelb said:

And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).

Not peer reviewed according to Physics Today, the only coverage I've been able to find that wasn't unbelievably dumbed down.
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.2.20221213a/full/

The news media seem to have been going for their own breakthrough in low quality reporting. An even more challenging task than sustainable nuclear fusion.

I don't doubt that the results as reported are correct and will pass peer review; it's the significance of the results that has been massively overstated. Expect everything to go quiet again for a while on the fusion front, at least until ITER is up and running.

I'm sure you know more than I do about it. I was just correcting that specific point about peer review. I am going to read the Physics Today piece fully now.

Malmesbury

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.

You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?

Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.

I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...

You're probably ahead of HMRC then!

They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.

Not yet…

You’ve heard of PreCrime?

This is PreTax. HMRC keeps three freaks in a basement who see your future earnings. By using some fairly basic Bistromatics, they pull your future earning backwards through space time and tax you on them.

ohnotnow

londonpubman said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.

LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.

Someone I know said to me "I'm 100% going to vote Labour next time. I just don't know why."

Not exactly the most positive support - but a vote's a vote I guess.

Selebian

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

As a Liberal Democrat, I am absolutely appalled and deeply personally offended by this shocking comment.

It's "squib" with a "b", not "squid" with a "d", FFS.

Other than that, fair enough.

I do like the idea of literal damp squids turning up on election night at the counts as the promised gains fail to materialise.

MoonRabbit

Gardenwalker said:

Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.

Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.

Carnyx

Stuartinromford said:

Driver said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TOPPING said:

It really was instructive. The state determining how many people you were allowed in to your own house and when you could see your family.

And the polls showed that people loved it all. Look at the posters on here and, I might add, well after the first lockdown. No way could we have been trusted to do the right thing without laws dictating to us.

Wait until you hear about the state determining how many people you can have in your car, and the atrocious assault on freedom, the seatbelt.

Bingo! The seatbelt fallacy. I wondered how long it would take for someone to mention that. Just disappointed it was you of all people.

It is your choice whether or not to drive a car (note: do you wear a seatbelt in a black cab, I wonder). It is not a necessary element of a normal life whereas it could be argued that choosing to see your aged mother, for example, is a part of human life why isn't there a human right to free assembly? Is there a human right to drive a Porsche Boxster?

I always wear a seatbelt, I've seen close up what not wearing a seatbelt does.

The problem with people like you is that you we who supported lockdown was something we enjoyed. I saw my other half once in twelve months, as we both lived with shielding people.

In March 2020 there were no good options, lockdown was the least worst option, I absolutely hated every moment of it, and hope to never live through another one.

There were no good options and a massive infringement of human liberties was at the more egregious end of the scale. I don't think you enjoyed it; I do think that the government played on the fear factor to encourage people to think it was a good idea. Not you, of course, you are far too smart. But look at the polls. Scroll through PB in 2020 and look at some of the responses to you-know-who.

You one way or another applauded an unprecedented restriction on our liberties. Is what is the problem with people like you.

It really wasn't unprecedented.

Mrs Thatcher introduced legislation which was much stringent.

• Applying certain public health powers used for notifiable diseases to AIDS. This allowed patients with AIDS to be subject to compulsory medical examination, removal to and detention in a hospital upon order by a justice of the peace (if necessary ex parte). It also extended regulations on the disposal of the body of someone who had died of AIDS.
  
  
• Section 38 of the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 (regarding detention in hospital) was extended in order to allow for detention if a justice of the peace thought that a patient would not take proper precautions to prevent the spread of AIDS in a wider sense than in the original act.
  

Yeah, you see how those things applied only to people who were actually ill?

So, what do you do with an infectious disease where you can pass it on to other people without knowing you have it yourself?

There is excellent precedent in English Law (possibly not Scotland given the distribution of the then locations in question) for people to be forcibly detained and inspected for diseases, irrespective of whether they were aware of any such disease at the time. Ironically enough given who is participating in this discussion, the targeted person was a naval dockyard hooker, or anyone who just looked as if she might be one, or going shopping in a town that came under the legislation, and so on and so forth.

The Contagious Diseases Acts of the 1860s.

MoonRabbit

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Chris said:

Nigelb said:

And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).

Not peer reviewed according to Physics Today, the only coverage I've been able to find that wasn't unbelievably dumbed down.
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.2.20221213a/full/

The news media seem to have been going for their own breakthrough in low quality reporting. An even more challenging task than sustainable nuclear fusion.

I don't doubt that the results as reported are correct and will pass peer review; it's the significance of the results that has been massively overstated. Expect everything to go quiet again for a while on the fusion front, at least until ITER is up and running.

So Fusion remains ten years away as always then?

Gardenwalker

Selebian said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

As a Liberal Democrat, I am absolutely appalled and deeply personally offended by this shocking comment.

It's "squib" with a "b", not "squid" with a "d", FFS.

Other than that, fair enough.

I do like the idea of literal damp squids turning up on election night at the counts as the promised gains fail to materialise.

Rishi is a kind of damp squid, ex vampire squid anyway.

Foxy

londonpubman said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.

LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.

Today's MRP isn't a poll as such, but rather a forecast depending on demographic voting patterns. Personally I cannot see Labour taking Rutland and Melton with Con on 69 seats, but likely to be a bloodbath elsewhere.

Carnyx

Selebian said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

As a Liberal Democrat, I am absolutely appalled and deeply personally offended by this shocking comment.

It's "squib" with a "b", not "squid" with a "d", FFS.

Other than that, fair enough.

I do like the idea of literal damp squids turning up on election night at the counts as the promised gains fail to materialise.

Useful, when fried in tempura batter. Or cooked in a sweet potato and tomato stew. Or stuffed with something herby.

SirNorfolkPassmore

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

So reading between the lines, Mr Afriyie game Barclays a PG for his business, when it went bankrupt he was on the hook for it.

Oh he was a litigant in person in the proceedings.

Is that because he couldn't afford a lawyer or no one would take his case?

Being a litigant in person is quite a good way to string things out as you tend to get a bit more leeway from the courts, opportunities to correct errors etc.

That's what's happening here. It's quite common for insolvency proceedings to be about buying time rather than arguing real legal points. In this case, Afriyie wants to stay in his house for longer whilst hoping something turns up. In corporate cases, often the case will progress in the courts while the real activity is in negotiations with creditors outside the courts.

Bear in mind that people often wrongly believe bankrupts' big problem is they lack money. That's partly true, but much more fundamentally they lack TIME - that's the killer.

Selebian

MoonRabbit said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Chris said:

Nigelb said:

And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).

Not peer reviewed according to Physics Today, the only coverage I've been able to find that wasn't unbelievably dumbed down.
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.2.20221213a/full/

The news media seem to have been going for their own breakthrough in low quality reporting. An even more challenging task than sustainable nuclear fusion.

I don't doubt that the results as reported are correct and will pass peer review; it's the significance of the results that has been massively overstated. Expect everything to go quiet again for a while on the fusion front, at least until ITER is up and running.

So Fusion remains ten years away as always then?

40. It's always been 40 years away (at least since I was a green physics undergrad 20 years ago).

Mind you, one of our lecturers, a disenchanted refugee from JET also told us it didn't work and would never happen May of course be that the torus approach does never really go anywhere, even with ITER, if the laser target approach takes off.

LostPassword

Gardenwalker said:

Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.

What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?

MoonRabbit

The table in the header looks a bad result for the Tories admits 2019 success. Why? Is MP already unpopular?

Freggles

Adam Afriye, notable for being TSE's political and personal hero and role model

Driver

.

Foxy said:

londonpubman said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.

LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.

Today's MRP isn't a poll as such, but rather a forecast depending on demographic voting patterns. Personally I cannot see Labour taking Rutland and Melton with Con on 69 seats, but likely to be a bloodbath elsewhere.

It was, as I understand it, based on a 20% Labour lead.

The biggest problem with MRP polls, especially outside of election campaigns, is they always seem to be a few weeks out of date.

MoonRabbit

Selebian said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

As a Liberal Democrat, I am absolutely appalled and deeply personally offended by this shocking comment.

It's "squib" with a "b", not "squid" with a "d", FFS.

Other than that, fair enough.

I do like the idea of literal damp squids turning up on election night at the counts as the promised gains fail to materialise.

Would make dressing up as a bin so “last time”

Stuartinromford

MoonRabbit said:

The table in the header looks a bad result for the Tories admits 2019 success. Why? Is MP already unpopular?

Brexit effect?

stjohn

Carnyx said:

Selebian said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

As a Liberal Democrat, I am absolutely appalled and deeply personally offended by this shocking comment.

It's "squib" with a "b", not "squid" with a "d", FFS.

Other than that, fair enough.

I do like the idea of literal damp squids turning up on election night at the counts as the promised gains fail to materialise.

Useful, when fried in tempura batter. Or cooked in a sweet potato and tomato stew. Or stuffed with something herby.

Yes. Calamari is great fried like that. Crisp and dry. Maybe served with a sweet chilli sauce on the side? In a stew though? I’m not so sure. Could be a bit of a damp squid.

No_Offence_Alan

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

A "damp squid" ? You'll be putting people on a pedal stool next.

Malmesbury

Selebian said:

MoonRabbit said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Chris said:

Nigelb said:

And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).

Not peer reviewed according to Physics Today, the only coverage I've been able to find that wasn't unbelievably dumbed down.
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.2.20221213a/full/

The news media seem to have been going for their own breakthrough in low quality reporting. An even more challenging task than sustainable nuclear fusion.

I don't doubt that the results as reported are correct and will pass peer review; it's the significance of the results that has been massively overstated. Expect everything to go quiet again for a while on the fusion front, at least until ITER is up and running.

So Fusion remains ten years away as always then?

40. It's always been 40 years away (at least since I was a green physics undergrad 20 years ago).

Mind you, one of our lecturers, a disenchanted refugee from JET also told us it didn't work and would never happen May of course be that the torus approach does never really go anywhere, even with ITER, if the laser target approach takes off.

They are running out of blockers for ITER working. Though the timescale to full operation is interesting - first plasma in 2025, but full operation may be 10 years later….

Can’t see how you’d make a useful power source from laser fusion.

dixiedean

ohnotnow said:

londonpubman said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.

LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.

Someone I know said to me "I'm 100% going to vote Labour next time. I just don't know why."

Not exactly the most positive support - but a vote's a vote I guess.

Surely that's the very best kind of support?
No danger of them changing their mind on principle is there?

Chris

Chris said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

Chris said:

Nigelb said:

And the fusion result officially confirmed (and peer reviewed).

Not peer reviewed according to Physics Today, the only coverage I've been able to find that wasn't unbelievably dumbed down.
https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.6.2.20221213a/full/

The news media seem to have been going for their own breakthrough in low quality reporting. An even more challenging task than sustainable nuclear fusion.

I don't doubt that the results as reported are correct and will pass peer review; it's the significance of the results that has been massively overstated. Expect everything to go quiet again for a while on the fusion front, at least until ITER is up and running.

I'm sure you know more than I do about it. I was just correcting that specific point about peer review. I am going to read the Physics Today piece fully now.

Which I found pretty depressing, actually, what with its perspective of scientific politics, the focus of the research on nuclear weapons production, and the broader interpretation of this month's achievement, in which the energy produced was only around 1% of the total energy used to produce it.

The way things are going, I may become as contemptuous of the "mainstream media" as any lunatic Trumpite.

StuartDickson

Rishi Sunak forecast to lose his seat:

🚨NEW MRP MODEL🚨

Seat forecast
Labour 482 (+280)
Conservative 69 (-296)
SNP 55 (+7)
LD 21 (+10)
Plaid Cymru 4 (=)
Green 1 (=)

Labour majority of 314

All change from GE 2019 results

savanta.com/knowledge-cent…



https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1602635224323702784?s=46&t=10fdj-SkXR2mxWsFu5lBJg

SirNorfolkPassmore

MoonRabbit said:

The table in the header looks a bad result for the Tories admits 2019 success. Why? Is MP already unpopular?

Stockbroker belt. It's just fundamentally not a Johnson demographic. I mean he still won by miles but the swing was similar in similar seats.

dixiedean

No_Offence_Alan said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

A "damp squid" ? You'll be putting people on a pedal stool next.

He'll be doing his upmost.

ydoethur

Malmesbury said:

ydoethur said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Talking about the tax man, my call to HMRC has just tipped past 1 hour on hold. Country falling apart at the seams, every service is crap.

You don't have your own accountant to deal with this stuff?

Hire yourself a decent tax avoidance tax minimisation firm.

I know how to file my own taxes! It's not like I can't do other work whilst on hold...

You're probably ahead of HMRC then!

They're able to send out automated emails to me demanding payment, the bastards. Even though actually, they've grossly overestimated my income so are demanding advance payments for taxes i won't owe them.

Not yet…

You’ve heard of PreCrime?

This is PreTax. HMRC keeps three freaks in a basement who see your future earnings. By using some fairly basic Bistromatics, they pull your future earning backwards through space time and tax you on them.

Well, that's good news.

Because it means in the next four months I'm going to somehow earn in excess of £40,000.

Driver

No_Offence_Alan said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

A "damp squid" ? You'll be putting people on a pedal stool next.

Only if they are lack toast and tolerant.

Gardenwalker

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.

Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.

There’s

LostPassword said:

Gardenwalker said:

Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.

What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?

Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.

ydoethur

Selebian said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

As a Liberal Democrat, I am absolutely appalled and deeply personally offended by this shocking comment.

It's "squib" with a "b", not "squid" with a "d", FFS.

Other than that, fair enough.

I do like the idea of literal damp squids turning up on election night at the counts as the promised gains fail to materialise.

Will they be kraken jokes at the Liberal Democrats' expense?

wooliedyed

Foxy said:

londonpubman said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.

LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.

Today's MRP isn't a poll as such, but rather a forecast depending on demographic voting patterns. Personally I cannot see Labour taking Rutland and Melton with Con on 69 seats, but likely to be a bloodbath elsewhere.

It also seems to model absurdly lopsided tactical voting to Lab and very little to none to the LDs. Their regular poll fieldwork ended a day earlier and was the 11 point smallest lead since since the Tomfools mini Budget, a small lab majority on UNS.
Tories appear to be over the last fortnight inching back into a teens deficit and 200 to 240 seats is back as a reasonable target for now, they might just prevent a Lab majority.

That being said, not been on for a while, not in too good shape health wise lately, probably wont be posting/engaging with politics and polls until next year but thought i'd stick my head in and say hello. Hello.

ydoethur

Driver said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election. There is little doubt about it, but history is littered with LD by-election victories that have promised the earth and proved a damp squid.

A "damp squid" ? You'll be putting people on a pedal stool next.

Only if they are lack toast and tolerant.

Definitely cheesy.

ydoethur

wooliedyed said:

Foxy said:

londonpubman said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.

LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.

Today's MRP isn't a poll as such, but rather a forecast depending on demographic voting patterns. Personally I cannot see Labour taking Rutland and Melton with Con on 69 seats, but likely to be a bloodbath elsewhere.

It also seems to model absurdly lopsided tactical voting to Lab and very little to none to the LDs. Their regular poll fieldwork ended a day earlier and was the 11 point smallest lead since since the Tomfools mini Budget, a small lab majority on UNS.
Tories appear to be over the last fortnight inching back into a teens deficit and 200 to 240 seats is back as a reasonable target for now, they might just prevent a Lab majority.

That being said, not been on for a while, not in too good shape health wise lately, probably wont be posting/engaging with politics and polls until next year but thought i'd stick my head in and say hello. Hello.

Sorry to hear this. Hope you get better soon.

kle4

Good news, I hope everyone makes progress (and that certain member states stop backsliding)

What a difference a war makes: After 8 years of sitting on its hands regarding enlargement, the EU will have made three countries candidate members in the space of 6 months

EU ministers agree Bosnia to formally become bloc membership candidate

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1602648995733688321?cxt=HHwWgsC-paex4L0sAAAA

dixiedean

wooliedyed said:

Foxy said:

londonpubman said:

squareroot2 said:

MoonRabbit said:

squareroot2 said:

The Tories are going to.lose the next election.

Can you explain for us what makes you so sure?

Everyone I talk to curls their lip at the mere mention or sighs. Little sign of support where I am.

Yes I think CON are going to lose. No real enthusiasm for LAB but the current government is a shambles.

LAB unlikely to be more than 8% clear though, but that should provide some sort of overall majority as the swing in the marginals (anywhere where CON lead LAB by up to 30%) will in my view be greater than UNS, reversing out the reverse effect in previous elections particularly in 2010 and 2019.

Today's MRP isn't a poll as such, but rather a forecast depending on demographic voting patterns. Personally I cannot see Labour taking Rutland and Melton with Con on 69 seats, but likely to be a bloodbath elsewhere.

It also seems to model absurdly lopsided tactical voting to Lab and very little to none to the LDs. Their regular poll fieldwork ended a day earlier and was the 11 point smallest lead since since the Tomfools mini Budget, a small lab majority on UNS.
Tories appear to be over the last fortnight inching back into a teens deficit and 200 to 240 seats is back as a reasonable target for now, they might just prevent a Lab majority.

That being said, not been on for a while, not in too good shape health wise lately, probably wont be posting/engaging with politics and polls until next year but thought i'd stick my head in and say hello. Hello.

Hello.
Look after yourself.

HYUFD

StuartDickson said:

Rishi Sunak forecast to lose his seat:

🚨NEW MRP MODEL🚨

Seat forecast
Labour 482 (+280)
Conservative 69 (-296)
SNP 55 (+7)
LD 21 (+10)
Plaid Cymru 4 (=)
Green 1 (=)

Labour majority of 314

All change from GE 2019 results

savanta.com/knowledge-cent…



https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1602635224323702784?s=46&t=10fdj-SkXR2mxWsFu5lBJg

Out of date as gives 20% Labour lead and new Deltapoll today has Tories up to 32% and Labour lead cut to just 13%

https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1602608859197198337?s=20&t=SyBtvk5ZbSpKpMG4DvpXqw

kle4

StuartDickson said:

Rishi Sunak forecast to lose his seat:

🚨NEW MRP MODEL🚨

Seat forecast
Labour 482 (+280)
Conservative 69 (-296)
SNP 55 (+7)
LD 21 (+10)
Plaid Cymru 4 (=)
Green 1 (=)

Labour majority of 314

All change from GE 2019 results

savanta.com/knowledge-cent…



https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1602635224323702784?s=46&t=10fdj-SkXR2mxWsFu5lBJg

Not even the SE remaining loyal, only the SW staying true blue (comparitively). I guess East Anglia to a degree as well.

dixiedean

Gardenwalker said:

MoonRabbit said:

Gardenwalker said:

Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.

Good. They amount to little more than a fascist form of voter suppression pretending to be a much needed cure for an ailment that doesn’t actually exist.

There’s

LostPassword said:

Gardenwalker said:

Looks like the government’s voter ID plans might be about to collapse.

What is the basis for this optimistic assessment?

Turns out there are large chunks of the country who don’t actually have ready access to ID, the government looks like it has conceded to an independent assessment.

I don't. I don't drive and my passport has expired. It didn't prevent me getting an enhanced DBS.
ID suitable for that ought to be sufficient to cast a vote.

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

StuartDickson said:

Rishi Sunak forecast to lose his seat:

🚨NEW MRP MODEL🚨

Seat forecast
Labour 482 (+280)
Conservative 69 (-296)
SNP 55 (+7)
LD 21 (+10)
Plaid Cymru 4 (=)
Green 1 (=)

Labour majority of 314

All change from GE 2019 results

savanta.com/knowledge-cent…



https://twitter.com/savanta_uk/status/1602635224323702784?s=46&t=10fdj-SkXR2mxWsFu5lBJg

Out of date as gives 20% Labour lead and new Deltapoll today has Tories up to 32% and Labour lead cut to just 13%

https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1602608859197198337?s=20&t=SyBtvk5ZbSpKpMG4DvpXqw

Deltapoll isn't necessarily correct.