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What do we think of the John Rentoul Dim Sum forecast? – politicalbetting.com
What do we think of the John Rentoul Dim Sum forecast? – politicalbetting.com
What the future holds for politics – the Dim Sum forecast https://t.co/8E6BqHc8Ir pic.twitter.com/VDg0xhLYoz
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Predictions for 2022. Not great, no change of PM or Chancellor foreseen (but "gavin Williamson might be moved from education"), and the previous year called for Trump winning second term.
https://archive.ph/7plEI
Boris in the WSJ on Ukraine.
Sunak PM after next election - no.
JC and DM to stand at next election - hard to say, I'd be tempted to say yes to both.
Pro Indy parties to win 50%+ - yes, just.
Badenoch next Tory leader? Yes.
Rayner next Labour leader? No.
Next US election? Maybe, but more likely Biden doesn't stand and De Santis beats someone else.
The lie is and always was in the implication that all or indeed any of the 365m or 270m would be available to be paid to Our Beloved NHS. It's like me saying I will stop driving to work and spend all the money I save on petrol, on drink, without netting off the increased expenditure on train fares.
I was astonished by the thought that you have had six years to grasp that point, and failed to grasp it. Then I thought: Leave voter, of course, must make allowances.
Sunak PM after next election - unlikely.
JC and DM to stand at next election - yes/no
Pro Indy parties to win 50%+ - no
Badenoch next Tory leader? a bit sceptical but maybe
Rayner next Labour leader? no.
Next US election? Maybe, like OLB I think maybe, but deSantis beating someone else more likely.
Vote BoZo...
This is Beira’s Place.
It is a new support and advocacy service for women who have experienced sexual violence, it has been funded by J.K. Rowling, and it opens today. It has been set up to meet an unmet need from female survivors for a women-only service, as there is not one currently available in the area. ....
Edinburgh’s one Rape Crisis is currently already over subscribed and somewhat controversial. Its stance that survivors may need to be re-educated about trans rights as part of recovering from trauma does not suit many of its users. The idea that survivors who have “unacceptable beliefs” should have their prejudices challenged, begs the question of who the service is for.
https://suzannemoore.substack.com/p/an-exclusive-interview-with-jk-rowling
Whose definition, where?
Suggest HP Grice Logic and Conversation as a starting place for your investigation, but really it shouldn't be necessary.
If I say You pay me £x and I will give you the keys to a brand new Porsche do you think logic or the law permits me to give you just the keys and not the car?
And the answer is an emphatic NO. I am not making any claim about whether "We send the EU £270m a week" would have been true, false or unknowable in 2016, why would I?
Shyster X sells a sizzle to hopeless rube Y who then protests that they thought they were going to get a sausage.
The punchline is usually that the rube is a rube and there's nothing to be done. But whilst we pity Y, X is never a hero.
The Brexit coalition was a coalition of shysters and rubes, often the same people at once. Take the Liberal Leavers who smiled at a "control our borders" campaign to win Brexit, but then wanted an EEA solution that wouldn't have delivered the border control that most of the 52% wanted. Shysters, rubes or both?
Do you think that, say, Plato wasted his time writing whole dialogues searching for a definition of, say, truth or courage or justice when he had a dictionary to hand?
BREAKING: A huge migrant caravan of over 1,000 people crossed illegally into El Paso, TX last night, making it the largest single group we have ever seen. The city of El Paso reports Border Patrol now has over 5,000 in custody & has released hundreds to city streets.
@FoxNews
https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1602301863822491650?s=20&t=WyNMOf23qlslr_DDFngbCw
This issue is growing in domestic salience. Not good for the Dems
They delivered a generational shitshow.
And still Labour can't bring themselves to say so...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHLBenKNjJA
In 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019 they got 21%, 51%, 37%, 46%, and Johnson probably won them a few pp.
"Next leader of the Labour party: Angela Rayner." This too. Labour should find a way to make this charismatic northern female from the lower orders (tick, tick, tick, tick) the leader before the election.
PS @Driver trying to claim the number was too low on the previous thread - would that be from Boris in the committee meeting when challenged on it? Are you really going to rely on someone who lied so often you would be better believing the opposite of what he says always?
I'm only defending it because people who still haven't gotten over losing more than six years later are still calling it a lie, which it was not. It's their crutch for a reason why they lost.
Clearly, to anyone that isn't a complete Remainer partisan, the claim that "We send $270m a week to the EU" would not have been a lie and would have passed the fact checkers. So the answer to my question of "how many people would have been swayed by the 70m difference in numbers" is a good sign of how consequential the "lie" of using a gross number vs a net number.
Of course, I won't get an answer to it, just as no Remainer on here ever gives an answer to "when was the last time a democratic election changed EU policy".
*'sum' would normally be spelled 'swm' but it sounds the same.
Big bet on wind
Even if the world reaches net zero soon after 2050, limiting the rise in temperature, winds will weaken significantly in the northern hemisphere. It's called global stilling. And it's caused by the rapid warming of the Arctic, which is narrowing the temperature difference with the tropics, a gap that drives wind.
In the UK, the average wind speed is expected to drop by 2% to 3% by 2050, and 10% by the end of the century.
That matters because the UK is taking a big bet on wind.
We have 14.2GW of onshore wind turbines, with another 13.7GW offshore. The government has a target to increase offshore capacity to 50GW by 2030, and to turn off gas and coal power stations by 2035.
However, having the turbines doesn't make them turn - as we are finding out now.
Although the government also plans to expand nuclear energy to 24GW by 2050, up from about 6GW now, that would not fill the gap left by the lack of wind.
We will need to find some way of storing vast amounts of energy, invest in new sources, such as tidal power, or import much more through long distance cables.
Only then can we be sure the lights will stay on without fossil fuels.
Re tagging you. I have already covered this previously. I (as do most people) tag someone when they are not replying directly to a post. It is courtesy. I can't sit here having to remember if someone doesn't want tagging.
You are talking nonsense anyway. Cummings knew he was lying and that was the point, it was a "classic dom" manoeuvre to keep people talking about it. 4D. You deserve either pity for not grasping that, or repulsion if you do.
century.
Thankfully one other feature of climate change is greater sunshine amounts in Western Europe so solar should compensate.
😈
1. Boris to still be PM on 31 December 2022. X
2. Labour to end the year ahead in the polls. ✓
3. Valérie Pécresse to win the French Presidential election. X
4. Dems to lose control of the Senate but narrowly retain the House in November. X
5. Donald Trump indicted for at least one offence. X
6. Two more covid ‘variants of significance’ to sweep the world. X
7. Official number of UK covid deaths to reach 210k by year end. X
8. Russia-Ukraine stand-off to continue. X
9. Bitcoin to collapse. X
10. FTSE 100 to peak above 8,000 before falling back by the end of the year. X
I just need the Tories to make a dramatic recovery in the polls for a clean sweep.
So even if it costs more to install wind turbines more quickly, we'll get more wind energy or if then as a result, and so it's worth doing besides the other impacts on climate change.
Monday 12 December 2022 13:25
EU corruption scandal of 'utmost concern' after four charged over alleged bribes from Qatar, von der Leyen says
Belgian investigators are looking into allegations 2022 World Cup host Qatar lavished cash and gifts on European Parliament officials to influence decision-making.
The EU corruption scandal is of the "utmost concern" after investigators charged four people with allegedly receiving money and gifts from Qatar, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said.
Germany's foreign minister Annalena Baerbock has said "the credibility of Europe" is at stake due to the allegations which the EU's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has described as "very worrisome".
Belgian investigators are looking into allegations 2022 World Cup host Qatar lavished cash and gifts on European Parliament officials to influence decision-making.
Prosecutors searched 16 houses and seized €600,000 (£516,000) in Brussels on Friday as part of the probe.
Four people were arrested and charged with "participation in a criminal organisation, money laundering and corruption", prosecutors said in a statement on Sunday.
They did not name the suspects, but a source close to the case said one of the European Parliament's vice presidents, Greek socialist Eva Kaili, was among those charged.
The European Parliament said at the weekend it had suspended Ms Kaili from her duties in light of the investigation, while the Greek socialist PASOK party announced it was expelling her from its ranks.
Prosecutors said they had suspected for months that a Gulf state was trying to influence decision-making in Brussels.
A source with knowledge of the case said the state was Qatar.
That was what led to Ref2016, and it is just as true now. It will remain true until a Black Swan arrives or the plate tectonics shift.
If blame seeking, look at the failure of statecraft by UK governments from 1970s until 2016 which had got us to that place we are still at.
If SKS thought there were any solutions he would hint at what they are. There aren't. So he doesn't.
Now the hard cadences, which sound more saxon than latinate, of "Brexiters", conjure up John Bull.
But I'm slightly sceptical of modelling which shows a decline in wind speed. I'm sceptical climate models are accurate enough to confidently predict that. And surely wind is just a fact of life on a spinning planet?
Brexiter: Google Hits: 85,000
It's BrexitEER. Those who say BrexitER come across as bitterly twisted Remoaners
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview&areaName=United Kingdom
Ask Truss/Kwarteng
"Two NHS Scotland unions accept 7.5% pay deal
Members of two major NHS unions in Scotland have voted to accept an improved pay offer.
This ends the risk of strike action in the health service by members of Unison and Unite but a ballot of Royal College of Nursing members is still under way.
An improved pay offer averaging 7.5% was made to health workers threatening industrial action last month."
See also "Remain" and "Remainers", boring and crabbed and cowardly, and with an unpleasant hint of "human remains". Basic fail. Should have gone with the warm, friendly, hospitable STAY. Stay a while for another dram! Awww
Brexit is a shitshow. Will be a shitshow.
Or just perhaps, there's a lot more behind Brexit than Remainer simpletons ever understood?
'Tis the year's midnight, and it is the day's,
Lucy's, who scarce seven hours herself unmasks;
The sun is spent, and now his flasks
Send forth light squibs, no constant rays;
The world's whole sap is sunk;
The general balm th' hydroptic earth hath drunk,
Whither, as to the bed's feet, life is shrunk,
Dead and interr'd; yet all these seem to laugh,
Compar'd with me, who am their epitaph.
Study me then, you who shall lovers be
At the next world, that is, at the next spring;
For I am every dead thing,
In whom Love wrought new alchemy.
For his art did express
A quintessence even from nothingness,
From dull privations, and lean emptiness;
He ruin'd me, and I am re-begot
Of absence, darkness, death: things which are not.
All others, from all things, draw all that's good,
Life, soul, form, spirit, whence they being have;
I, by Love's limbec, am the grave
Of all that's nothing. Oft a flood
Have we two wept, and so
Drown'd the whole world, us two; oft did we grow
To be two chaoses, when we did show
Care to aught else; and often absences
Withdrew our souls, and made us carcasses.
But I am by her death (which word wrongs her)
Of the first nothing the elixir grown;
Were I a man, that I were one
I needs must know; I should prefer,
If I were any beast,
Some ends, some means; yea plants, yea stones detest,
And love; all, all some properties invest;
If I an ordinary nothing were,
As shadow, a light and body must be here.
But I am none; nor will my sun renew.
You lovers, for whose sake the lesser sun
At this time to the Goat is run
To fetch new lust, and give it you,
Enjoy your summer all;
Since she enjoys her long night's festival,
Let me prepare towards her, and let me call
This hour her vigil, and her eve, since this
Both the year's, and the day's deep midnight is.
Wake me up when Camden gets that bad. Although, no promises I won't turn over and go back to hibernating.
"Has there been a disaster in an expanded polystyrene factory?", one asks.
What you did there, is promote "lie" to "Goebbelsesque Big Lie that is responsible for opening the gates of hell", which is kind of an instance of what it seeks to condemn, quite cleverly. I will settle for just "lie.2 People shouldn't lie, I don't like liars, and to try to explain away, condone or minimise lies is to demean yourself.
I really am, btw!
For some reason, the logic does not seem to apply south of Lamberton Toll.
What is the Brexiteers cunning formula for combating their lies that the remain campaign didn't try?
Share your wisdom...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hr1bqeHOeBc