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The MidTerms are over – now for WH2024 – politicalbetting.com
The MidTerms are over – now for WH2024 – politicalbetting.com
2024 National Democratic Primary, Without Biden:Harris 32%Sanders 17%Buttigieg 13%Warren 9%Klobuchar 6%Ocasio-Cortez 6%Newsom 5%Whitmer 3%Shapiro 2%Big Village, 452 Adults, 11/30-12/2https://t.co/lDMvrhOFrZ
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'Not right’ to expect Armed Forces personnel to fill in for people in public sector who earn more than them, say senior military figures
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/12/07/army-fury-soldiers-told-give-christmas-cover-striking-workers/ (£££)
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63885028
No doubt Scotty-c will be on it today....
“Tehran on verge of collapse. Leaked: Basij leader there has admitted the possibility of Tehran's fall tonight is extremely high and that the Presidential palace may be attacked. Khamenei & Raisi told to be transferred to a safe place ASAP.
Twitter is working great from a consumer perspective, but 2FA is still borked and smaller advertisers can't spend any money on the platform.
Unless Biden dies, it'll be Biden
It is the standard legal way to name suspects in Germany, with first name and initial.
What has Donald Trump got to do with it?
They may be silly old farts, but there are a few thousand of them, many have weapons, and some have links to, or are currently in, the military and security services - including the KSK. I'm not sure why their beliefs would reduce the need for police - not believing in the legitimacy of the state seems like the kind of belief that would tend to increase the need for lots of police rather than lessen it.
That's a term that denigrates those who use it, not those whom it is meant to refer to.
Sq Ldr George "Johnny" Johnson, who lived in Bristol, was a bomb-aimer in the 617 Squadron, which destroyed key damns in the industrial heartland of Germany in World War Two.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-63899393
Or it's about the dog.
Winston realised he had always loved Big Brother....and Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia
Another good reason to end the license tax.
Using the forces in case of floods or pandemics is one thing, intervening in industrial disputes is another.
$33.31
https://mobile.twitter.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1600699231169150976
A reminder of the days when destroying infrastructure and killing civilians was accounted to be a good thing.
On checking Wiki I see there was even a third RAF Johnnie Johnson.
Interesting how times have changed. When our brave boys bomb water infrastructure and power plants they are heroes. When Putin does the same in Ukraine , he is a war criminal and terrorist.
Last month, the morning after the vote, Paddypower offered 50-1 against a Democrat Senate victory. At that time the score was 49 Republicans and (I thought) 48 Democrats, with three states left to be called. I had a £10 bet on the Democrats.
Yesterday I learned that two of those "Democrats" were, by Paddypower's rules, not counted as they are independents.
In which case Paddypower were offering their bet when there were only 46 Democrats, with three states left to be called, so it was impossible for that bet to win.
Anyone come across this before?
Those that currently have it that is.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/dec/07/border-force-staff-to-strike-over-christmas-in-row-over-pay
As to the distinction between then and now, Nazi Germany was the aggressor. Ukraine is not.
It's theoretically possible that the independent Senators might choose to caucus with the Democrats in the next session, so they're not committing fraud, I think ?
Ukraine was not trying to invade Russia or kill Russians.
Germany had to be stopped, and it couldn't be stopped using clean methods precisely because it was so brutal. It is hard to make the same argument for Ukraine.
The capability of assessing the military
effectiveness of such actions was considerably more primitive back then.
A far stronger moral case could and can (correctly, IMO) be made against the fire bombings of cities back then.
On That ProPublica ‘Chinese Lab Leak’ Story.
https://fallows.substack.com/p/on-that-propublica-chinese-lab-leak
...Here is a crucial point: Skepticism about the story was entirely separate from views on the “lab leak” hypothesis itself (which the story supported, as had the Republican staff report). I have no idea where the pandemic virus came from and have never joined arguments about its origin. I don’t know enough. This post is explicitly not about the “lab leak” idea. The same is true for most people questioning the ProPublica story. The controversy involves language, evidence, and journalistic transparency and accountability....
The first is arguable. The second is bullshit.
If however Trump falters or pulls out of fails in the early primaries then DeSantis looks well placed on the GOP side and yes Buttigieg on the Democrats side
Fwiw Harris objected to forces being allocated to these special operations, mainly due to them taking away bombers from his own personal mission to make Germans reap the whirlwind rather than any soft heartedness.
Assuming it goes ahead (a fairly big assumption), it's only terrible for Buttigieg if he does terribly. Remember, primaries are about the expectations game. He will be expected to do bady and Harris would be expected to do well - if Harris is well down on Biden's 48% and Buttigieg well up on his 8% in 2020, it's a decent result that will be written up as such, even if she still wins pretty handsomely.
The primaries then move to quickly more favourable ground for Buttigieg in New Hampshire and Nevada, then Michigan and Georgia before Super Tuesday. The South Carolina move has grabbed headlines, but Michigan and Georgia are probably more significant as South Carolina came before Super Tuesday anyway, whereas Michigan and Georgia come right up the calendar and are acid tests in states that are likely to be really competitive in November. Georgia could be problematic for Buttigieg for the same reasons as South Carolina (although again, expectations game) but he lives in Michigan now, seems to have a decent relationship with Governor Whitmer if she's not running, and there's been a lot of transportation investment there he can connect himself to.
The real mistake was not doing a Mosquito raid to follow up, to destroy the form work for pouring the repair concrete. This type of raid wrecked several Nazi mega projects later in the war.
It’s almost as if context in history is important. The reason that we don’t attack whole cities, if civilised, these days, is that we have the capability not to.
Much as a surgeon might chop off a leg - back then, it might be the only option. Today it might be criminal incompetence.
The current crop of Tory backbenchers are the ones who thought BoZo would be an excellent PM
QED
Turnips and Tiger tanks can’t be substitute easily. Strangely the Allies tried to bomb Tiger tank factories, not turnip fields.
It is quite informative to read the history from the other angle - from late 1943, nearly all German military production was hit by bombing effects.
The belief that all Bomber Command did was firebomb cities is simply wrong.
Though they do get accommodation, though only in barracks
The problem in the UK is not that millions of ordinary men and women are trade union militants, it’s that we have a group of employers in the public and private sectors whose venality, complacency and downright incompetence make them unfit to hold the roles they do. Until that changes, we will all lose out.
Benefits also going up by 10% as is the minimum wage but none above inflation and state pensioners with no significant private pension and the unemployed and those on minimum wage earn far less than the average worker whether in the public or private sector
If Putin hadn't been so stupid as to invade Ukraine...
Sound management of public sector pay and restricting pay rises is usually a good thing. But not when we can't recruit or retain staff, when workers are relying on food banks and we have millions waiting for operations.
Sometimes a government just simply needs to accept that pay will have to rise faster than they want or expected it to. Today is such a time but the government is too wedded to their ideology of controlling and restricting wage growth.
I got sent (back) to Iraq on the 23rd December when I was on leave. 'Merry Christmas' said the chortling voice from Yeovilton on the end of the phone.
And someone on here that I respect equates Chastise with what Putin's army is doing in Ukraine? Unbelievable.
BTW - I note that the latest BBC radio reports have stopped calling 617 'infamous'. I suspect complaints have been made.
There was an excellent US civil war film called Ride with the Devil which fared badly, due to its liberal use of that word, despite the fact that Southern guerillas would have used it as routine.
https://twitter.com/JennyMarra/status/1600157986118598657
That someone is @NicolaSturgeon who can’t risk the political fallout from her Finance Secretary voting against the GRR bill. From 4 January MSPs have a proxy vote. They can therefore vote whether they are in Holyrood or not. Nicola must now get her bill through before Christmas.
https://twitter.com/JennyMarra/status/1600558243772010496