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Hard to see anything other than a LAB hold in Chester – politicalbetting.com
Hard to see anything other than a LAB hold in Chester – politicalbetting.com
Today’s by-election follows the resignation of incumbent MP Chris Matheson after accusations of sexual misconduct and a recommendation from the Independent Expert Panel that he be suspended from the Commons for four weeks.
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It is demographically more bluewall than redwall, won by Cameron in 2010 but not by Boris in 2019 and the type
of seat that would prefer Sunak to Johnson
Nice place though. Worth a weekend's trip. (Though prepare to be initially underwhelmed if you arrive by train.)
Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.
BATTERSEA
BEDFORD
BRENTFORD AND ISLEWORTH
BRIGHTON, KEMPTOWN
CITY OF CHESTER
CROYDON CENTRAL
EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON
ENFIELD NORTH
ENFIELD, SOUTHGATE
HOVE
ILFORD NORTH
LANCASTER AND FLEETWOOD
PLYMOUTH, SUTTON AND DEVONPORT
PUTNEY
WARWICK AND LEAMINGTON
WEAVER VALE
WIRRAL WEST
CARDIFF NORTH
Indeed, I suspect they'll hold up reasonably well in a low turnout election as those diehards will come out. Not enough to put the result in doubt, but not strikingly awful.
https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981
Response to:
Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880
Westminster Greggs branch gives profit warning to shareholders.
https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1598283428356448256
And that’s quite an old photo of Mr Blackford…
Though this is a traditional poshish suburb of Remain metropolitan city (or in Chester's case, TWO big Remain cities), Lab/Con marginal seat, it's also close-ish to some of UKIP's old stomping grounds. And with a growing number of poll respondents saying they'll vote Reform (though who knows what they think they'll be voting for), you'd have thought Tice's mob would have put some energy into campaigning in Chester.
Some of the recent allegedly "shock" by-election results (like Amersham) were surprising only to people depending on our lazy journalists who simply don't bother going to by-election seats they think will be walkovers. In Chester, though, the LDs aren't campaigning and it really wouldn't surprise me if Reform took enough votes from the Tories to kick Sunak's party into an embarrassingly low rank in the eventual result.
Has anyone closer to Chester any insight into what's happening on the ground?
Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
So I expect you are right, however much I'd love to see an anti-Tory tsunami of votes.
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/nov/30/cocaine-bear-trailer-2023-wildest-film-everything-and-more
But they wouldn’t have been running the German government in the event of a Ukrainian defeat.
To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still ...
There's no excuse for Scholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
See also Willy Brandt.
Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
There is nothing either liberal or sensible about authoritarian communist dictatorship.
I'm in.
I’m pleased to hear this. It’s time for fresh leadership & tolerance of debate & diverse viewpoints. I hope @theSNP Westminster group will be now be left to choose our new leader without outside interference & in accordance with our standing orders.
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1598283472380231680
Enjoy.
Naseem Shah 0-96 (15 overs)
Mohammad Ali 1-96 (17 overs)
Haris Rauf 1-78 (13 overs)
Zahid Mahmood 2-160 (23 overs)
Agha Salman 0-38 (5 overs)
Saud Shakeel 0-30 (2 overs)
The point was that to the social democrats in Germany, Russia was bad. Yes. But the alternatives were
1) War - see Threads, see Kaiser Bill, see house painter
2) Peace - everyone try and be nice. Live with awkward neighbours. Try and sort out disputes over the er… party wall.
That you don't feel the need to follow a law you don't like makes you, er, exceptional.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera
I don't think Brandt would recognise or respect the behaviour of Scholz whatsoever. Scholz is a bastardisation of a parody of an extreme interpretation of Brandt, a bit like Truss with regards to Thatcher.
The problem China has is that they have failed to effectively vaccinate their population, and they have gained little natural immunity due to the extreme nature of their lockdowns. So the Chinese population is ripe for being hit hard by a virulent strain of the coronavirus.
Drop the bellicosity on the West's side, work with the East where possible, but he was absolutely prepared to pay for arms and to fully support NATO and proxy fights against the USSR like Vietnam where it happened.
He was not by any means a pacifist or an apologist like Scholz and it demeans his memory to conflate the two.
But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
https://twitter.com/UtdOptimist/status/1598255433952948224
Two debutant all-rounders for England (Jacks and Livingstone) to follow the four debutants who bowled for Pakistan. Tough match for new bowlers.
To my eternal shame I've never seen Snakes on a Plane. Or Sharknado, which perhaps also sits within this genre.
I think Sri Lanka’s record of 952 is at risk.
I think it is a CGI bear.
1) Lockdowns reduced R below 1 for the earlier versions of the virus.
2) Lockdowns of the most savage kind don’t quite manage to do that for omicron.
3)Widespread vaccination with top line vaccines does much better - both reducing R and the consequences of infection
The Strength Through Joy advocates of “just pushing through the virus” are quite boring, really.
Russia planned to invade Ukraine over a 10-day period and thereafter occupy the country to enable annexation by August 2022. The Russian plan presupposed that speed, and the use of deception to keep Ukrainian forces away from Kyiv, could enable the rapid seizure of the capital. The Russian deception plan largely succeeded, and the Russians achieved a 12:1 force ratio advantage north of Kyiv. The very operational security that enabled the successful deception, however, also led Russian forces to be unprepared at the tactical level to execute the plan effectively. The Russian plan’s greatest deficiency was the lack of reversionary courses of action. As a result, when speed failed to produce the desired results, Russian forces found their positions steadily degraded as Ukraine mobilised. Despite these setbacks, Russia refocused on Donbas and, since Ukraine had largely expended its ammunition supply, proved successful in subsequent operations, slowed by the determination – rather than the capabilities – of Ukrainian troops. From April, the West became Ukraine’s strategic depth, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) only robbed Russia of the initiative once long-range fires brought Russian logistics under threat.
The tactical competence of the Russian military proved significantly inferior compared with the expectations of many observers based within and outside Ukraine and Russia. Nevertheless, Russian weapons systems proved largely effective, and those units with a higher level of experience demonstrated that the AFRF have considerable military potential, even if deficiencies in training and the context of how they were employed meant that the Russian military failed to meet that potential. Factoring in the idiosyncrasies of the Russian campaign, there are five key areas that should be monitored to judge whether the Russian military is making progress in resolving its structural and cultural deficiencies. These areas should be used to inform assessments of Russian combat power in the future.
https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022
It is like Christopher Nolan directed today’s game.
The positive thing is to declare no later than lunch.
*I'm interested to note that I will quite casually use 'we' to describe things the England cricket team are doing in a way I never do with the football team.
It's the history of a WWII fascist (inaccurately called a Nazi, FWIW).
Here's some other bits of their history.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandura
Worth noting they were already rising pre-Covid, but in 2020 and 21 they surged, and are still increasing
(b) As you note, voluntary action was doing the same to a significant extent
Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion
of Ukraine: February–July 2022P
https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf
The detail ought to satisfy even Topping.
In a move that was accelerated after The Times learnt of plans to rekindle plots to oust Blackford, the Ross, Skye & Lochaber MP abruptly announced he had quit the role this morning.
He is expected to be replaced by Stephen Flynn, the energy spokesman, who two weeks ago said he had “no intention of standing” for the top job.
Times
Flynn looks as impressive as that Welsh guy who stood against Corbyn
They all got a hundred then out, nobody went out to make a daddy hundred.
Hopefully Harry Brooks will fix that.
OTOH I've been worried for the future post Root (it will happen eventually) but Brook looks like the natural replacement. Mint.
EXC: Boris Johnson has told his local Conservative party he will stand again at the next election, The Telegraph can reveal.
https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1598297089448214529
The entire DfE participating in the first landing on the Sun is the follow up.
In hindsight, we could have done things differently. Its possible we could have tried to keep schools open better (most were anyway for the kids of essential workers). We should have used masks from the start. But these are lessons for the inquiry, not for rewriting decisions made with limited information and extreme pressure and time pressure.
https://twitter.com/sama/status/1598038815599661056?s=46&t=1TIC9G0487AuVcfRbM2kKQ
Initial thoughts: my god. It’s phenomenal. It is going to put about 200 million people out of a job. And this is before lunch
It is also potentially a Google killer. It will do all your net searching for you
A quiet announcement by several schools in my area that they will not pass the full rise onto parents has kicked off a panic in the local council.
The schools in question do a lot of free stuff for the state schools in the area. Not just lending sports facilities. But providing sports coaching to go with it. Free laptop programs and IT support for schools. Etc.
They are quite open about their budgeting - the charitable activities are paid for out of the difference between revenue and expenditure. If revenue is squeezed, the council is assuming (probably correctly) that the charitable works will be reduced.
• Those to be physically liquidated.
• Those in need of suppression and intimidation.
• Those considered neutral who could be induced to collaborate.
• Those prepared to collaborate.
For those in the top category, the FSB had conducted wargames with detachments of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) to conduct kill-or-capture missions. In many cases, the purpose of capture was to put individuals involved in the 2014 Revolution of Dignity (often referred to as the Maidan Revolution) on trial to be executed.
https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf
The downside is that it would be sorely tempting for Labour activists to focus on this seat at the expense of tighter ones.
Even Boris Johnson was bright enough to understand the principle of spreading the load on the health service, so surely it can't be that hard to grasp.