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Hard to see anything other than a LAB hold in Chester – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,163
edited December 2022 in General
imageHard to see anything other than a LAB hold in Chester – politicalbetting.com

Today’s by-election follows the resignation of incumbent MP Chris Matheson after accusations of sexual misconduct and a recommendation from the Independent Expert Panel that he be suspended from the Commons for four weeks.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First first
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    First loser
  • Not sure anyone will be staying up for the result. It won't tell us anything about anything in the broader political situation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,963
    Labour will hold it but the fact the Tory vote was down 2% in the seat even in 2019 suggests there won't be a huge swing to Labour.

    It is demographically more bluewall than redwall, won by Cameron in 2010 but not by Boris in 2019 and the type
    of seat that would prefer Sunak to Johnson
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803
    HYUFD said:

    Labour will hold it but the fact the Tory vote was down 2% in the seat even in 2019 suggests there won't be a huge swing to Labour.

    It is demographically more bluewall than redwall, won by Cameron in 2010 but not by Boris in 2019 and the type
    of seat that would prefer Sunak to Johnson

    Yes, interesting mix, Chester. Affected by the sub-regional swing which saw Labour outperform its national trend within 20 miles of Liverpool. Some very conservative countryside; the city itself has something of the character of a university seat.
    Nice place though. Worth a weekend's trip. (Though prepare to be initially underwhelmed if you arrive by train.)
  • First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.
  • It would be interesting to hear from anyone on the ground in Chester. From outside, it all looks incredibly low key and as if turnout will be tiny... but maybe it's been more visible where it matters.
  • Good to see the positive batting in the Test Match 👍
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    In the current circumstances is it possible the Tories could lose their deposit?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    HYUFD said:

    Labour will hold it but the fact the Tory vote was down 2% in the seat even in 2019 suggests there won't be a huge swing to Labour.

    It is demographically more bluewall than redwall, won by Cameron in 2010 but not by Boris in 2019 and the type
    of seat that would prefer Sunak to Johnson

    There are 18 Labour seats that Cameron won in 2010:

    BATTERSEA
    BEDFORD
    BRENTFORD AND ISLEWORTH
    BRIGHTON, KEMPTOWN
    CITY OF CHESTER
    CROYDON CENTRAL
    EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON
    ENFIELD NORTH
    ENFIELD, SOUTHGATE
    HOVE
    ILFORD NORTH
    LANCASTER AND FLEETWOOD
    PLYMOUTH, SUTTON AND DEVONPORT
    PUTNEY
    WARWICK AND LEAMINGTON
    WEAVER VALE
    WIRRAL WEST
    CARDIFF NORTH
  • Blackford resigns as leader of SNP Westminster group
  • Blackford resigns as leader of SNP Westminster group

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1598281483180990464?






  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited December 2022

    In the current circumstances is it possible the Tories could lose their deposit?

    Not really, no. Maybe at the nadir of Truss, but there are plenty enough diehard Conservatives in a place like Chester (which isn't that much less Tory than the country as a whole) not to come anywhere close to that.

    Indeed, I suspect they'll hold up reasonably well in a low turnout election as those diehards will come out. Not enough to put the result in doubt, but not strikingly awful.
  • No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880
  • Breaking

    Westminster Greggs branch gives profit warning to shareholders.




    https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1598283428356448256

    And that’s quite an old photo of Mr Blackford…
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    Breaking

    Westminster Greggs branch gives profit warning to shareholders.




    https://twitter.com/BrianSpanner1/status/1598283428356448256

    And that’s quite an old photo of Mr Blackford…

    Breaking? … wind perhaps.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour will hold it but the fact the Tory vote was down 2% in the seat even in 2019 suggests there won't be a huge swing to Labour.

    It is demographically more bluewall than redwall, won by Cameron in 2010 but not by Boris in 2019 and the type
    of seat that would prefer Sunak to Johnson

    Yes, interesting mix, Chester. Affected by the sub-regional swing which saw Labour outperform its national trend within 20 miles of Liverpool. Some very conservative countryside; the city itself has something of the character of a university seat.
    Nice place though. Worth a weekend's trip. (Though prepare to be initially underwhelmed if you arrive by train.)
    One of the historically most interesting railway disasters, too (bridge over the Dee). But never stopped and got out myself. Roman amphitheatre I believe.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,820

    No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    The German denials that they were ready to treat with a puppet Ukrainian regime seem pretty hollow, don't they.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    I'm surprised that no-one (yet) has mentioned Reform.

    Though this is a traditional poshish suburb of Remain metropolitan city (or in Chester's case, TWO big Remain cities), Lab/Con marginal seat, it's also close-ish to some of UKIP's old stomping grounds. And with a growing number of poll respondents saying they'll vote Reform (though who knows what they think they'll be voting for), you'd have thought Tice's mob would have put some energy into campaigning in Chester.

    Some of the recent allegedly "shock" by-election results (like Amersham) were surprising only to people depending on our lazy journalists who simply don't bother going to by-election seats they think will be walkovers. In Chester, though, the LDs aren't campaigning and it really wouldn't surprise me if Reform took enough votes from the Tories to kick Sunak's party into an embarrassingly low rank in the eventual result.

    Has anyone closer to Chester any insight into what's happening on the ground?
  • tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour will hold it but the fact the Tory vote was down 2% in the seat even in 2019 suggests there won't be a huge swing to Labour.

    It is demographically more bluewall than redwall, won by Cameron in 2010 but not by Boris in 2019 and the type
    of seat that would prefer Sunak to Johnson

    There are 18 Labour seats that Cameron won in 2010:

    BATTERSEA
    BEDFORD
    BRENTFORD AND ISLEWORTH
    BRIGHTON, KEMPTOWN
    CITY OF CHESTER
    CROYDON CENTRAL
    EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON
    ENFIELD NORTH
    ENFIELD, SOUTHGATE
    HOVE
    ILFORD NORTH
    LANCASTER AND FLEETWOOD
    PLYMOUTH, SUTTON AND DEVONPORT
    PUTNEY
    WARWICK AND LEAMINGTON
    WEAVER VALE
    WIRRAL WEST
    CARDIFF NORTH
    Chester and Wirral West seem to be both moving demographically to Lab due to the Liverpool effect
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175

    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour will hold it but the fact the Tory vote was down 2% in the seat even in 2019 suggests there won't be a huge swing to Labour.

    It is demographically more bluewall than redwall, won by Cameron in 2010 but not by Boris in 2019 and the type
    of seat that would prefer Sunak to Johnson

    There are 18 Labour seats that Cameron won in 2010:

    BATTERSEA
    BEDFORD
    BRENTFORD AND ISLEWORTH
    BRIGHTON, KEMPTOWN
    CITY OF CHESTER
    CROYDON CENTRAL
    EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON
    ENFIELD NORTH
    ENFIELD, SOUTHGATE
    HOVE
    ILFORD NORTH
    LANCASTER AND FLEETWOOD
    PLYMOUTH, SUTTON AND DEVONPORT
    PUTNEY
    WARWICK AND LEAMINGTON
    WEAVER VALE
    WIRRAL WEST
    CARDIFF NORTH
    Chester and Wirral West seem to be both moving demographically to Lab due to the Liverpool effect
    Weaver Vale too.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    In the current circumstances is it possible the Tories could lose their deposit?

    Not really, no. Maybe at the nadir of Truss, but there are plenty enough diehard Conservatives in a place like Chester (which isn't that much less Tory than the country as a whole) not to come anywhere close to that.

    Indeed, I suspect they'll hold up reasonably well in a low turnout election as those diehards will come out. Not enough to put the result in doubt, but not strikingly awful.
    I have vague recollections of looking at the later by-elections running up to 1997, and one thing that surprised me was that the turnout of opposition voters was often quite low - there didn't seem to be huge enthusiasm or determination to turn out for a by-election, presumably because everyone was waiting for the general election and the results seemed inevitable.

    So I expect you are right, however much I'd love to see an anti-Tory tsunami of votes.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    MaxPB said:

    No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    The German denials that they were ready to treat with a puppet Ukrainian regime seem pretty hollow, don't they.
    I think the denials are coming from people who wouldn’t have treated with the puppet regime.

    But they wouldn’t have been running the German government in the event of a Ukrainian defeat.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,989
    edited December 2022

    No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still ...

    There's no excuse for Scholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072

    In the current circumstances is it possible the Tories could lose their deposit?

    No, but Pakistan might.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still . . .

    There's no excuse for Sholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
    In West Germany, trying for better relations with Russia through diplomacy and trade was the liberal, sensible position. Hence the original gas pipeline to Germany, pre 1989.

    See also Willy Brandt.

    Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
  • No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still . . .

    There's no excuse for Sholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
    In West Germany, trying for better relations with Russia through diplomacy and trade was the liberal, sensible position. Hence the original gas pipeline to Germany, pre 1989.

    See also Willy Brandt.

    Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
    Bellicosity towards Russia is what got the Berlin Wall to come down and to liberate the Eastern half of Germany.

    There is nothing either liberal or sensible about authoritarian communist dictatorship.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    edited December 2022
    No, just this year's Snakes on a Plane.

    I'm in.
  • Pointed…

    I’m pleased to hear this. It’s time for fresh leadership & tolerance of debate & diverse viewpoints. I hope @theSNP Westminster group will be now be left to choose our new leader without outside interference & in accordance with our standing orders.

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1598283472380231680

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Good to see the positive batting in the Test Match 👍

    Those Pakistan bowling figures, Day 1.

    Enjoy.


    Naseem Shah 0-96 (15 overs)

    Mohammad Ali 1-96 (17 overs)

    Haris Rauf 1-78 (13 overs)

    Zahid Mahmood 2-160 (23 overs)

    Agha Salman 0-38 (5 overs)

    Saud Shakeel 0-30 (2 overs)
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668

    First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.

    Only 75 overs bowled! How many could they have got from another 15? 200?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Nigelb said:

    No, just this year's Snakes on a Plane.

    I'm in.
    I suspect having seen the trailer, you now don't need to see the film.
  • No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still . . .

    There's no excuse for Sholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
    In West Germany, trying for better relations with Russia through diplomacy and trade was the liberal, sensible position. Hence the original gas pipeline to Germany, pre 1989.

    See also Willy Brandt.

    Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
    The blind spot in all of this early on in Putin’s war was that the “Soviet Union” became “Russia” and the fact that the Nazis were at least as dreadful in Ukraine as in Russia overlooked.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still . . .

    There's no excuse for Sholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
    In West Germany, trying for better relations with Russia through diplomacy and trade was the liberal, sensible position. Hence the original gas pipeline to Germany, pre 1989.

    See also Willy Brandt.

    Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
    Bellicosity towards Russia is what got the Berlin Wall to come down and to liberate the Eastern half of Germany.

    There is nothing either liberal or sensible about authoritarian communist dictatorship.
    Sigh

    The point was that to the social democrats in Germany, Russia was bad. Yes. But the alternatives were

    1) War - see Threads, see Kaiser Bill, see house painter
    2) Peace - everyone try and be nice. Live with awkward neighbours. Try and sort out disputes over the er… party wall.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.

    Only 75 overs bowled! How many could they have got from another 15? 200?
    England were 96/1 in their last ten overs. So 150 would be about par. Maybe 200 if Stokes had stayed in.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    But there was fuck all to do. You're fine because your preferred occupation is illicit hooning. For the homme moyen sensuel, with no pubs or parties or flights to warm places the incentive to leave the house wasn't there.
  • First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.

    Only 75 overs bowled! How many could they have got from another 15? 200?
    England were 96/1 in their last ten overs. So 150 would be about par. Maybe 200 if Stokes had stayed in.
    The other question is how many will Pakistan score on this pitch which does, it appears, favour the batting side?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    They complied with the law requiring them to do it.

    That you don't feel the need to follow a law you don't like makes you, er, exceptional.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still . . .

    There's no excuse for Sholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
    In West Germany, trying for better relations with Russia through diplomacy and trade was the liberal, sensible position. Hence the original gas pipeline to Germany, pre 1989.

    See also Willy Brandt.

    Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
    The blind spot in all of this early on in Putin’s war was that the “Soviet Union” became “Russia” and the fact that the Nazis were at least as dreadful in Ukraine as in Russia overlooked.
    The history of Ukrainian nationalism certainty gave pause to many in Germany.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera
  • No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still . . .

    There's no excuse for Sholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
    In West Germany, trying for better relations with Russia through diplomacy and trade was the liberal, sensible position. Hence the original gas pipeline to Germany, pre 1989.

    See also Willy Brandt.

    Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
    The blind spot in all of this early on in Putin’s war was that the “Soviet Union” became “Russia” and the fact that the Nazis were at least as dreadful in Ukraine as in Russia overlooked.
    The other blind spot is that those who believed in Ostpolitik in the past like Willy Brandt were more complicated than simply "Russia/USSR is nice and friendly and so should we be, no need for arms". Brandt was a firm supporter of America and even supported the Vietnam War.

    I don't think Brandt would recognise or respect the behaviour of Scholz whatsoever. Scholz is a bastardisation of a parody of an extreme interpretation of Brandt, a bit like Truss with regards to Thatcher.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    That was before there was widespread vaccination. Lockdowns do make sense if there is no medical treatment or vaccine.

    The problem China has is that they have failed to effectively vaccinate their population, and they have gained little natural immunity due to the extreme nature of their lockdowns. So the Chinese population is ripe for being hit hard by a virulent strain of the coronavirus.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    edited December 2022
    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.

    Only 75 overs bowled! How many could they have got from another 15? 200?
    England were 96/1 in their last ten overs. So 150 would be about par. Maybe 200 if Stokes had stayed in.
    Amazing they can score 96 off 10 overs when it's too dark to bat...
  • No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still . . .

    There's no excuse for Sholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
    In West Germany, trying for better relations with Russia through diplomacy and trade was the liberal, sensible position. Hence the original gas pipeline to Germany, pre 1989.

    See also Willy Brandt.

    Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
    Bellicosity towards Russia is what got the Berlin Wall to come down and to liberate the Eastern half of Germany.

    There is nothing either liberal or sensible about authoritarian communist dictatorship.
    Sigh

    The point was that to the social democrats in Germany, Russia was bad. Yes. But the alternatives were

    1) War - see Threads, see Kaiser Bill, see house painter
    2) Peace - everyone try and be nice. Live with awkward neighbours. Try and sort out disputes over the er… party wall.
    Brandt was more along the lines of "speak softly, but carry a big stick".

    Drop the bellicosity on the West's side, work with the East where possible, but he was absolutely prepared to pay for arms and to fully support NATO and proxy fights against the USSR like Vietnam where it happened.

    He was not by any means a pacifist or an apologist like Scholz and it demeans his memory to conflate the two.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.

    Only 75 overs bowled! How many could they have got from another 15? 200?
    England were 96/1 in their last ten overs. So 150 would be about par. Maybe 200 if Stokes had stayed in.
    The other question is how many will Pakistan score on this pitch which does, it appears, favour the batting side?
    Valid question but the counter is this - after fielding for best part of two days (I hope) and with pitch with more wear and tear it will be hard to bat as England have done. Don't rule out the draw, but also don't rule out an innings win for England. It also looks like we will lose around 60-70 overs from the match (daylight gone by 5.45 local time, and most teams need the extra 30 mins to bow their overs, so probably 10 overs a day at least lost, on top of what was lost today. Essentially a four day match over five days.
  • Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Ray Liotta's last movie before his passing.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.

    Only 75 overs bowled! How many could they have got from another 15? 200?
    England were 96/1 in their last ten overs. So 150 would be about par. Maybe 200 if Stokes had stayed in.
    The other question is how many will Pakistan score on this pitch which does, it appears, favour the batting side?
    Valid question but the counter is this - after fielding for best part of two days (I hope) and with pitch with more wear and tear it will be hard to bat as England have done. Don't rule out the draw, but also don't rule out an innings win for England. It also looks like we will lose around 60-70 overs from the match (daylight gone by 5.45 local time, and most teams need the extra 30 mins to bow their overs, so probably 10 overs a day at least lost, on top of what was lost today. Essentially a four day match over five days.
    They don't like doing it in modern cricket, but surely to win the game England will have to enforce the follow-on.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.

    Only 75 overs bowled! How many could they have got from another 15? 200?
    England were 96/1 in their last ten overs. So 150 would be about par. Maybe 200 if Stokes had stayed in.
    The other question is how many will Pakistan score on this pitch which does, it appears, favour the batting side?
    Could forgive James Anderson for feeling a bit nervous this evening.

    Two debutant all-rounders for England (Jacks and Livingstone) to follow the four debutants who bowled for Pakistan. Tough match for new bowlers.
  • Nigelb said:

    No, just this year's Snakes on a Plane.

    I'm in.
    Yeah absolutely, it's Snakes on a Plane, but without snakes or a plane, and with a bear on coke.
    To my eternal shame I've never seen Snakes on a Plane. Or Sharknado, which perhaps also sits within this genre.
  • Liam Livingstone yet to bat.

    I think Sri Lanka’s record of 952 is at risk.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Nope, Covid was the granny killer. It's never before been the government's job to stop people dying fo natural causes. But you're right that no government would have had the guts to stand up to the media onslaught in the spring of 2020 - and once they had given in once, the rest was inevitable. We were quite lucky that the government found enough guts to get out of lockdown when they did.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,839
    Driver said:

    First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.

    Only 75 overs bowled! How many could they have got from another 15? 200?
    England were 96/1 in their last ten overs. So 150 would be about par. Maybe 200 if Stokes had stayed in.
    Amazing they can score 96 off 10 overs when it's too dark to bat...
    Just picture yourself in the gloom at long leg with a Stokes hit six flying towards your head...somewhere up there. Gulp.
  • Only if Andy Serkis is playing the bear using motion capture.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Benefits of lockdown 'overstated'. Not sure I agree. Lockdown (the first one in particular) did exactly what it was supposed to do. It crushed the ability of the virus to spread. Don't get sucked into the bullshit about cases falling before lockdown - lots of people were already working from home and not going out.
  • Taz said:

    Ray Liotta's last movie before his passing.
    I take it he isn't in the title role.
  • No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still . . .

    There's no excuse for Sholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
    In West Germany, trying for better relations with Russia through diplomacy and trade was the liberal, sensible position. Hence the original gas pipeline to Germany, pre 1989.

    See also Willy Brandt.

    Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
    The blind spot in all of this early on in Putin’s war was that the “Soviet Union” became “Russia” and the fact that the Nazis were at least as dreadful in Ukraine as in Russia overlooked.
    The history of Ukrainian nationalism certainty gave pause to many in Germany.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera
    Assassinated by the KGB on West German soil…..
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Nope, Covid was the granny killer. It's never before been the government's job to stop people dying fo natural causes. But you're right that no government would have had the guts to stand up to the media onslaught in the spring of 2020 - and once they had given in once, the rest was inevitable. We were quite lucky that the government found enough guts to get out of lockdown when they did.
    Covid killed a lot more than grannies. The median age of death was 80, but an awful lot of younger people died, a lot of them gung ho idiots who thought 'I'll be ok, I'm pretty fit for my age..."
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405

    Taz said:

    Ray Liotta's last movie before his passing.
    I take it he isn't in the title role.
    In a bear suit ? That would be interesting.

    I think it is a CGI bear.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Liam Livingstone yet to bat.

    I think Sri Lanka’s record of 952 is at risk.

    Trouble is for Livingstone, someone is going to get a duck. Its that kind of innings...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    .
    glw said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    That was before there was widespread vaccination. Lockdowns do make sense if there is no medical treatment or vaccine.

    The problem China has is that they have failed to effectively vaccinate their population, and they have gained little natural immunity due to the extreme nature of their lockdowns. So the Chinese population is ripe for being hit hard by a virulent strain of the coronavirus.
    That wouldn't bother Xi at all, had he not declared victory over the virus thanks to his lockdown policy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Benefits of lockdown 'overstated'. Not sure I agree. Lockdown (the first one in particular) did exactly what it was supposed to do. It crushed the ability of the virus to spread. Don't get sucked into the bullshit about cases falling before lockdown - lots of people were already working from home and not going out.
    Yup. Anyone who disagrees on that one can have a fuckton of charts dropped on them from a height.

    1) Lockdowns reduced R below 1 for the earlier versions of the virus.

    2) Lockdowns of the most savage kind don’t quite manage to do that for omicron.

    3)Widespread vaccination with top line vaccines does much better - both reducing R and the consequences of infection

    The Strength Through Joy advocates of “just pushing through the virus” are quite boring, really.
  • RUSI:

    Russia planned to invade Ukraine over a 10-day period and thereafter occupy the country to enable annexation by August 2022. The Russian plan presupposed that speed, and the use of deception to keep Ukrainian forces away from Kyiv, could enable the rapid seizure of the capital. The Russian deception plan largely succeeded, and the Russians achieved a 12:1 force ratio advantage north of Kyiv. The very operational security that enabled the successful deception, however, also led Russian forces to be unprepared at the tactical level to execute the plan effectively. The Russian plan’s greatest deficiency was the lack of reversionary courses of action. As a result, when speed failed to produce the desired results, Russian forces found their positions steadily degraded as Ukraine mobilised. Despite these setbacks, Russia refocused on Donbas and, since Ukraine had largely expended its ammunition supply, proved successful in subsequent operations, slowed by the determination – rather than the capabilities – of Ukrainian troops. From April, the West became Ukraine’s strategic depth, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) only robbed Russia of the initiative once long-range fires brought Russian logistics under threat.

    The tactical competence of the Russian military proved significantly inferior compared with the expectations of many observers based within and outside Ukraine and Russia. Nevertheless, Russian weapons systems proved largely effective, and those units with a higher level of experience demonstrated that the AFRF have considerable military potential, even if deficiencies in training and the context of how they were employed meant that the Russian military failed to meet that potential. Factoring in the idiosyncrasies of the Russian campaign, there are five key areas that should be monitored to judge whether the Russian military is making progress in resolving its structural and cultural deficiencies. These areas should be used to inform assessments of Russian combat power in the future.


    https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

  • Liam Livingstone yet to bat.

    I think Sri Lanka’s record of 952 is at risk.

    Trouble is for Livingstone, someone is going to get a duck. Its that kind of innings...
    This has been such a mind bending day of test cricket.

    It is like Christopher Nolan directed today’s game.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,405
    Poor old Joe Root, consistently our best "batter" these last few years missing out on easy runs here.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    Liam Livingstone yet to bat.

    I think Sri Lanka’s record of 952 is at risk.

    England will declare before that if they want to have the time to bat a second innings and give their bowlers a rest (if they can take ten first innings wickets at all).

    The positive thing is to declare no later than lunch.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Blackford resigns as leader of SNP Westminster group

    Visited by the men in grey kilts...
  • Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Nope, Covid was the granny killer. It's never before been the government's job to stop people dying fo natural causes. But you're right that no government would have had the guts to stand up to the media onslaught in the spring of 2020 - and once they had given in once, the rest was inevitable. We were quite lucky that the government found enough guts to get out of lockdown when they did.
    You hate Our NHS and want GOSH to burn down. As of 1945, stopping people dying of natural causes is our core national mission.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803

    Liam Livingstone yet to bat.

    I think Sri Lanka’s record of 952 is at risk.

    Unfortunately, I think we've* packed the team with batsmen - looking at how the pitch has performed, we could have quite easily sacrificed a couple of bastmen for greater bowling variety. (I don't mean to criticise the selectors here: before seeing how the pitch played I'd certainly have been wary about taking that approach).


    *I'm interested to note that I will quite casually use 'we' to describe things the England cricket team are doing in a way I never do with the football team.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    edited December 2022

    Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Nope, Covid was the granny killer. It's never before been the government's job to stop people dying fo natural causes. But you're right that no government would have had the guts to stand up to the media onslaught in the spring of 2020 - and once they had given in once, the rest was inevitable. We were quite lucky that the government found enough guts to get out of lockdown when they did.
    Covid killed a lot more than grannies. The median age of death was 80, but an awful lot of younger people died, a lot of them gung ho idiots who thought 'I'll be ok, I'm pretty fit for my age..."
    Yes - consider the numbers for sick enough for hospital….

    image
  • Nigelb said:

    No, just this year's Snakes on a Plane.

    I'm in.
    Yeah absolutely, it's Snakes on a Plane, but without snakes or a plane, and with a bear on coke.
    To my eternal shame I've never seen Snakes on a Plane. Or Sharknado, which perhaps also sits within this genre.
    The title is the best thing about SOAP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    .

    No thank you. Russia chose to take a giant dump all over the NATO-Russia founding act, and the result is going to be a bigger NATO presence in eastern Europe & more forward-leaning posture. Any discussion of common security starts from that new normal.

    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1598281767089278981

    Response to:

    Scholz told the Berlin Security Conference yesterday that there was a "willingness" to resolve "all questions of common security": "We can come back to a peace order that worked and make it safe again if there is a willingness in Russia to go back to this peace order."

    https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1598280478314106880

    All his life, for Scholz, peaceful relations with Russia have been synonymous with liberal, decent, sensible behaviour.

    Proxy war with a Russia run by a semi-demi-fascist loony must seem utterly weird and almost intolerable, to him.
    All his life? That's weird, Sholz was born in West Germany and is a couple of decades older than me and I'm old enough to remember the Berlin Wall coming down.

    To be fair at my age, I remember seeing it on the news after my dad called home and said to my mum to get the kids to watch the news, this will be something to remember, and also remember the next morning Timmy Mallet knocking down the Berlin Wall with Mallet's Mallet on Wacaday. But still . . .

    There's no excuse for Sholz not to know that Russia has a mixed at very best history with the free world.
    In West Germany, trying for better relations with Russia through diplomacy and trade was the liberal, sensible position. Hence the original gas pipeline to Germany, pre 1989.

    See also Willy Brandt.

    Bellicosity towards Russia was seen as a thing from the bad old days. The New Germany was the opposite of those bad old days….
    The blind spot in all of this early on in Putin’s war was that the “Soviet Union” became “Russia” and the fact that the Nazis were at least as dreadful in Ukraine as in Russia overlooked.
    The history of Ukrainian nationalism certainty gave pause to many in Germany.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera
    That is not the history of Ukranian nationalism, though.
    It's the history of a WWII fascist (inaccurately called a Nazi, FWIW).

    Here's some other bits of their history.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandura
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,327
    Covid was certainly bad for US gun crime. Firearm deaths back to peak 1990 levels



    Worth noting they were already rising pre-Covid, but in 2020 and 21 they surged, and are still increasing
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Nope, Covid was the granny killer. It's never before been the government's job to stop people dying fo natural causes. But you're right that no government would have had the guts to stand up to the media onslaught in the spring of 2020 - and once they had given in once, the rest was inevitable. We were quite lucky that the government found enough guts to get out of lockdown when they did.
    You hate Our NHS and want GOSH to burn down. As of 1945, stopping people dying of natural causes is our core national mission.
    Without the first lockdown, the U.K. would have followed the trajectory of Northern Italy.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Benefits of lockdown 'overstated'. Not sure I agree. Lockdown (the first one in particular) did exactly what it was supposed to do. It crushed the ability of the virus to spread. Don't get sucked into the bullshit about cases falling before lockdown - lots of people were already working from home and not going out.
    (a) It delayed the ability of the virus to spread
    (b) As you note, voluntary action was doing the same to a significant extent
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    edited December 2022
    RUSI report on the first few months of the invasion.

    Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion
    of Ukraine: February–July 2022P
    https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

    The detail ought to satisfy even Topping.
  • Ian Blackford has resigned as Scottish National Party leader at Westminster two weeks after a party rival aborted a coup attempt at the eleventh hour.

    In a move that was accelerated after The Times learnt of plans to rekindle plots to oust Blackford, the Ross, Skye & Lochaber MP abruptly announced he had quit the role this morning.

    He is expected to be replaced by Stephen Flynn, the energy spokesman, who two weeks ago said he had “no intention of standing” for the top job.

    Times

    Flynn looks as impressive as that Welsh guy who stood against Corbyn
  • England’s batters today were disappointing.

    They all got a hundred then out, nobody went out to make a daddy hundred.

    Hopefully Harry Brooks will fix that.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664

    England’s batters today were disappointing.

    They all got a hundred then out, nobody went out to make a daddy hundred.

    Hopefully Harry Brooks will fix that.

    Looked at the Scorecard. Root is rubbish.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Liam Livingstone yet to bat.

    I think Sri Lanka’s record of 952 is at risk.

    Trouble is for Livingstone, someone is going to get a duck. Its that kind of innings...
    This has been such a mind bending day of test cricket.

    It is like Christopher Nolan directed today’s game.
    Best tweet I saw was about it being like playing it as a video game. Madness. I thought the 400 in a day against the Aussies in 2009 was good.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Taz said:

    Poor old Joe Root, consistently our best "batter" these last few years missing out on easy runs here.

    Hard to feel too much sympathy for the lad - he's scored plenty, and in tougher circs.

    OTOH I've been worried for the future post Root (it will happen eventually) but Brook looks like the natural replacement. Mint.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Liam Livingstone yet to bat.

    I think Sri Lanka’s record of 952 is at risk.

    England will declare before that if they want to have the time to bat a second innings and give their bowlers a rest (if they can take ten first innings wickets at all).

    The positive thing is to declare no later than lunch.
    I'm not convinced this is a second innings kind of match, although the point about rest is true.
  • Meanwhile, in "We're going to need Morris Dancer's Space Cannon to get rid of him" news,

    EXC: Boris Johnson has told his local Conservative party he will stand again at the next election, The Telegraph can reveal.

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1598297089448214529
  • Mr. Romford, Boris Johnson can't make the same old jokes when he's hurtling into the heart of the sun at a million miles an hour.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Cookie said:

    Liam Livingstone yet to bat.

    I think Sri Lanka’s record of 952 is at risk.

    Unfortunately, I think we've* packed the team with batsmen - looking at how the pitch has performed, we could have quite easily sacrificed a couple of bastmen for greater bowling variety. (I don't mean to criticise the selectors here: before seeing how the pitch played I'd certainly have been wary about taking that approach).


    *I'm interested to note that I will quite casually use 'we' to describe things the England cricket team are doing in a way I never do with the football team.
    I think we have seven bowlers in the team, albeit only four are frontline. But Livingstone and Leach should do well later in the match, we have 2-3 fast bowlers and Root is not far off 50 test wickets. Get enough runs and the board and the part-timers can play a part if needed. Even Zak (I'm not John Crawley's son) Crawley can turn his arm over, and his height might get some extra bounce.

  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited December 2022

    England’s batters today were disappointing.

    They all got a hundred then out, nobody went out to make a daddy hundred.

    Hopefully Harry Brooks will fix that.

    Be fair, they also picked up runs before going out to bat.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269

    Mr. Romford, Boris Johnson can't make the same old jokes when he's hurtling into the heart of the sun at a million miles an hour.

    My plan to send the entire U.K. parliament on a one way trip to Pluto will solve all these problems.

    The entire DfE participating in the first landing on the Sun is the follow up.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Benefits of lockdown 'overstated'. Not sure I agree. Lockdown (the first one in particular) did exactly what it was supposed to do. It crushed the ability of the virus to spread. Don't get sucked into the bullshit about cases falling before lockdown - lots of people were already working from home and not going out.
    (a) It delayed the ability of the virus to spread
    (b) As you note, voluntary action was doing the same to a significant extent
    I agree that lockdowns are at best a delay - we've all seen that the virus will rebound as soon as the downward pressure on the R rate is removed. That doesn't mean we didn't need to do it in March 2020. We absolutely did. We saw what happened in Italy and it would have been here in a couple more weeks if nothing was done. And frankly I don't trust enough of the nation to voluntarily lockdown. I just don't. And making it formal allows support to flow.

    In hindsight, we could have done things differently. Its possible we could have tried to keep schools open better (most were anyway for the kids of essential workers). We should have used masks from the start. But these are lessons for the inquiry, not for rewriting decisions made with limited information and extreme pressure and time pressure.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,327
    The first chunk of GPT4 has dropped. A chat machine. You can ask it anything. Or get it to do anything. It does it instantaneously and for free

    https://twitter.com/sama/status/1598038815599661056?s=46&t=1TIC9G0487AuVcfRbM2kKQ

    Initial thoughts: my god. It’s phenomenal. It is going to put about 200 million people out of a job. And this is before lunch

    It is also potentially a Google killer. It will do all your net searching for you
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Driver said:

    First time ever that 4 centuries have been scored on the opening day of a Test.

    Not long left with the light if Stokes wants to be the fifth, but he's joining the fun at a rapid click too.

    Only 75 overs bowled! How many could they have got from another 15? 200?
    England were 96/1 in their last ten overs. So 150 would be about par. Maybe 200 if Stokes had stayed in.
    The other question is how many will Pakistan score on this pitch which does, it appears, favour the batting side?
    Valid question but the counter is this - after fielding for best part of two days (I hope) and with pitch with more wear and tear it will be hard to bat as England have done. Don't rule out the draw, but also don't rule out an innings win for England. It also looks like we will lose around 60-70 overs from the match (daylight gone by 5.45 local time, and most teams need the extra 30 mins to bow their overs, so probably 10 overs a day at least lost, on top of what was lost today. Essentially a four day match over five days.
    They don't like doing it in modern cricket, but surely to win the game England will have to enforce the follow-on.
    Yeah, I think England should just pile the runs on to be perfectly honest. This sort of pitch always gets more difficult as the match wears on.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    On the VAT on schools thing.

    A quiet announcement by several schools in my area that they will not pass the full rise onto parents has kicked off a panic in the local council.

    The schools in question do a lot of free stuff for the state schools in the area. Not just lending sports facilities. But providing sports coaching to go with it. Free laptop programs and IT support for schools. Etc.

    They are quite open about their budgeting - the charitable activities are paid for out of the difference between revenue and expenditure. If revenue is squeezed, the council is assuming (probably correctly) that the charitable works will be reduced.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited December 2022
    Meanwhile the FSB was tasked with capturing local officials. The Russian counterintelligence regime on the occupied territories had compiled lists that divided Ukrainians into four categories:
    • Those to be physically liquidated.
    • Those in need of suppression and intimidation.
    • Those considered neutral who could be induced to collaborate.
    • Those prepared to collaborate.
    For those in the top category, the FSB had conducted wargames with detachments of the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) to conduct kill-or-capture missions. In many cases, the purpose of capture was to put individuals involved in the 2014 Revolution of Dignity (often referred to as the Maidan Revolution) on trial to be executed.


    https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

  • On the VAT on schools thing.

    A quiet announcement by several schools in my area that they will not pass the full rise onto parents has kicked off a panic in the local council.

    The schools in question do a lot of free stuff for the state schools in the area. Not just lending sports facilities. But providing sports coaching to go with it. Free laptop programs and IT support for schools. Etc.

    They are quite open about their budgeting - the charitable activities are paid for out of the difference between revenue and expenditure. If revenue is squeezed, the council is assuming (probably correctly) that the charitable works will be reduced.

    Don't worry with the extra tax revenue we can fund our schools properly instead of going begging to the toffs.
  • On the VAT on schools thing.

    A quiet announcement by several schools in my area that they will not pass the full rise onto parents has kicked off a panic in the local council.

    The schools in question do a lot of free stuff for the state schools in the area. Not just lending sports facilities. But providing sports coaching to go with it. Free laptop programs and IT support for schools. Etc.

    They are quite open about their budgeting - the charitable activities are paid for out of the difference between revenue and expenditure. If revenue is squeezed, the council is assuming (probably correctly) that the charitable works will be reduced.

    Don't worry with the extra tax revenue we can fund our schools properly instead of going begging to the toffs.
    No, because the funds will be eaten up by the ex toffs you now have to accommodate. This is just stupid crowd pleasing.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Meanwhile, in "We're going to need Morris Dancer's Space Cannon to get rid of him" news,

    EXC: Boris Johnson has told his local Conservative party he will stand again at the next election, The Telegraph can reveal.

    https://twitter.com/DominicPenna/status/1598297089448214529

    It's not inconceivable that he will lose his seat. He's hardly the epitome of the 'local hardworking MP' since he got binned off as leader; add in a REFUK candidate to siphon off a coupla thousand crazies, a tacit Green-Lab-LD pact and you've got the recipe for asking 'were you up for Uxbridge and South Ruislip?'.

    The downside is that it would be sorely tempting for Labour activists to focus on this seat at the expense of tighter ones.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    edited December 2022

    Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    All these people who have now got the arsehole over lockdowns, etc need to remember that they locked themselves down. They barricaded themselves into their own homes for months on end just because utter wankers like Johnson and Hancock told them to. Take responsibility. You did it to yourselves.

    Some of us objected to it from virtually the beginning - it was clear within a month of the lockdown starting that the benefits of it were overstated and the costs hadn't been considered. We got smeared as granny killers.
    You were granny killers, to be fair, it's just that granny killing might have been the least worst answer. Certainly at a 90th birthday party I,went to this spring the oldies were unanimous they would rather have taken their chances than endure lockdown.

    But there was no alternative. You wanna go down that route you have to mercilessly triage the old fucks out. Nobody has the guts to do that, hospitals fill up,and fall over, it all goes to shit.
    Benefits of lockdown 'overstated'. Not sure I agree. Lockdown (the first one in particular) did exactly what it was supposed to do. It crushed the ability of the virus to spread. Don't get sucked into the bullshit about cases falling before lockdown - lots of people were already working from home and not going out.
    (a) It delayed the ability of the virus to spread
    (b) As you note, voluntary action was doing the same to a significant extent
    I agree that lockdowns are at best a delay - we've all seen that the virus will rebound as soon as the downward pressure on the R rate is removed.
    Of course that depends entirely on how infectious it is and how far it spreads before the restrictions are removed. Quite possibly if the virus hadn't mutated (and informed opinion initially didn't seem to expect it to mutate a lot) one lockdown would have been enough, we wouldn't have had much of a second wave in the Winter of 2020 and that would have been the end of it.

    Even Boris Johnson was bright enough to understand the principle of spreading the load on the health service, so surely it can't be that hard to grasp.
This discussion has been closed.