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FT reporting that Twitter could face EU ban – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I need to call this - he didn't predict >1M dead in China, he used the number in a thread about threats of new variants. There is no working attached to the number.
    I imagine he’s extrapolating from what happened in Hong Kong (if not, he should be). HK faced exactly this crisis: Omicron breached the Zero Covid wall and ripped into a relatively unjabbed population lacking natural immunity

    Deaths soared and hospitals collapsed
    And the Chinese are trying to prevent this 2020 style with lockdowns. So its unlikely that >1m will actually die.
    You don’t seem to understand what’s happening in China

    Their Zero Covid policy is finally collapsing (riots, protests) but at a time when they STILL haven’t vaxxed enough oldies, and they have no natural immunity (thanks to Zero Covid). Quite the dilemma
  • Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Hello everyone, hope you're all well.

    I'm shocked, shocked, to see that there's a racism problem in the Royal Family.

    Who could have possibly guessed that their and their most ardent supporters patented blend of condescension, harassment and victim-blaming of the King's own daughter-in-law would have been insufficient to make the racism problem just go away?

    A stupidity problem as well given that conversation.

    Or perhaps she's going senile.

    A risk you take when you employ too many very oldies.
    Did you hear Fulani on r4 this morning? She is so thick she makes Richard Burgon look like Immanuel Kant. Asking where you are from is actually not questioning your British citizenship. Not even close.
    Of course it is, don't be ridiculous.

    Repeatedly, even after getting an answer, challenging someone to demand where they are from, is to suggest that black people can't really be from Britain and they're really from somewhere else instead, even if they're born here.

    That you can't see the problem, is because you're part of the problem.
    I think she was rather rude, but it is a complex issue. Take cricket (at risk of falling foul of the Tebbit test). Often 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants support the nation that their parent or grandparents came from. (Although commonly its England against anyone else). People who have heritages from other parts of the world often retain a sense of that, and why not, its part of them.

    In this case you have an 83 year old making a mistake. At 83 she has seen the UK transition from having a few thousand non-white people (despite the desparate revisionism of some historians, the non-white population of the UK in 1939 was tiny) to the current country we live in. For the most part Britain is a successful example of integration of different populations.

    I am sure she meant not offence, but it was clumsy and comes across as rude. It should not be a witch hunt.
    You're right it shouldn't be a witch hunt, and if it was just a random old person saying something odd that would be the end of the matter.

    But what has been a witch-hunt is the years of abuse directed at eg the Duchess of Sussex or anyone else who raises concerns about racism. Perhaps if she and others had been treated with respect and their concerns listened to, then this unfortunate incident could have been avoided?

    When you have people representing the state, which is what the Royal Family does, then it must be held to the highest standards, not the lowest standards. If they don't want to be held to the highest standards, they shouldn't be representing the state. Plenty of old people in the privacy of their living room may say something odd or off that is a product of their time and age and not knowing better, that's not a problem. Representatives of the state doing so in an official capacity? That's a different matter.
    And that's why Hussey was immediately "asked" to retire.

    People are pretending that this justifies Markle's shit-stirring. It really doesn't (again, at least based on what we actually know so far.)
    You're right, this doesn't justify Markle raising concerns about the racism she's suffered, because that was already 100% justified.

    This just further confirms what we already knew, which is that there is a problem that ought to be addressed, but with Markle people wanted to abuse the victim instead of face the problem.
    But, Barty, Meghan is undoubtedly a pretty lady. Sadly she is also, beyond all reasonable doubt, a narcissistic bully and a liar. Why go out of your way to accept her frankly extraordinary claims of racism?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Remarkable scoring in the Test from 'pindi.

    416-3 in the tea session. Pope is the third centurion of the day. Brook through 50 too.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I need to call this - he didn't predict >1M dead in China, he used the number in a thread about threats of new variants. There is no working attached to the number.
    I imagine he’s extrapolating from what happened in Hong Kong (if not, he should be). HK faced exactly this crisis: Omicron breached the Zero Covid wall and ripped into a relatively unjabbed population lacking natural immunity

    Deaths soared and hospitals collapsed
    And the Chinese are trying to prevent this 2020 style with lockdowns. So its unlikely that >1m will actually die.
    You don’t seem to understand what’s happening in China

    Their Zero Covid policy is finally collapsing (riots, protests) but at a time when they STILL haven’t vaxxed enough oldies, and they have no natural immunity (thanks to Zero Covid). Quite the dilemma
    Then they are failing their population. I was merely pointing out that Balloux wasn't specifically predicting >1m dead, he was talking about something else.
  • pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Hello everyone, hope you're all well.

    I'm shocked, shocked, to see that there's a racism problem in the Royal Family.

    Who could have possibly guessed that their and their most ardent supporters patented blend of condescension, harassment and victim-blaming of the King's own daughter-in-law would have been insufficient to make the racism problem just go away?

    A stupidity problem as well given that conversation.

    Or perhaps she's going senile.

    A risk you take when you employ too many very oldies.
    Did you hear Fulani on r4 this morning? She is so thick she makes Richard Burgon look like Immanuel Kant. Asking where you are from is actually not questioning your British citizenship. Not even close.
    Of course it is, don't be ridiculous.

    Repeatedly, even after getting an answer, challenging someone to demand where they are from, is to suggest that black people can't really be from Britain and they're really from somewhere else instead, even if they're born here.

    That you can't see the problem, is because you're part of the problem.
    I think she was rather rude, but it is a complex issue. Take cricket (at risk of falling foul of the Tebbit test). Often 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants support the nation that their parent or grandparents came from. (Although commonly its England against anyone else). People who have heritages from other parts of the world often retain a sense of that, and why not, its part of them.

    In this case you have an 83 year old making a mistake. At 83 she has seen the UK transition from having a few thousand non-white people (despite the desparate revisionism of some historians, the non-white population of the UK in 1939 was tiny) to the current country we live in. For the most part Britain is a successful example of integration of different populations.

    I am sure she meant not offence, but it was clumsy and comes across as rude. It should not be a witch hunt.
    You're right it shouldn't be a witch hunt, and if it was just a random old person saying something odd that would be the end of the matter.

    But what has been a witch-hunt is the years of abuse directed at eg the Duchess of Sussex or anyone else who raises concerns about racism. Perhaps if she and others had been treated with respect and their concerns listened to, then this unfortunate incident could have been avoided?

    When you have people representing the state, which is what the Royal Family does, then it must be held to the highest standards, not the lowest standards. If they don't want to be held to the highest standards, they shouldn't be representing the state. Plenty of old people in the privacy of their living room may say something odd or off that is a product of their time and age and not knowing better, that's not a problem. Representatives of the state doing so in an official capacity? That's a different matter.
    And that's why Hussey was immediately "asked" to retire.

    People are pretending that this justifies Markle's shit-stirring. It really doesn't (again, at least based on what we actually know so far.)
    You're right, this doesn't justify Markle raising concerns about the racism she's suffered, because that was already 100% justified.

    This just further confirms what we already knew, which is that there is a problem that ought to be addressed, but with Markle people wanted to abuse the victim instead of face the problem.
    But, Barty, Meghan is undoubtedly a pretty lady. Sadly she is also, beyond all reasonable doubt, a narcissistic bully and a liar. Why go out of your way to accept her frankly extraordinary claims of racism?
    Because there's nothing extraordinary whatsoever about her claims, except the response to it being to victim blame rather than to try to address her concerns with dignity and respect.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (29-30 Nov)

    Con: 22% (-3 from 22-23 Nov)
    Lab: 47% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 9% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (+4)
    Green: 5% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1598252934185488384

    Reform absolutely destroying the Tories now. Turning a bad defeat into an apocalyptic rout
    Amongst Leavers it is now Tories 37%, Labour 27%, RefUK 21% though I expect some of that Ref vote will go back to the Tories before the next election.

    I don't expect the Chester by election tonight to be too disastrous for the Tories though, the Tory voteshare fell there even in 2019 and there was a Brexit Party candidate then and it is demographically more likely to like Sunak than Boris, being closer to bluewall than redwall.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022

    Reform is a large reservoir of votes that isn't going to Labour. Most seats won't have a Refuk candidate. The only question is whether those votes go to Can't Be Arsed Party or hold their nose and vote Tory. Likely to be more than enough vote Tory to prevent a Labour majority.
  • ‘She often asked my mother where she was from because she had a central European accent. I am sometimes mistaken for non-British because of my colouring. I’m never offended.'

    Petronella Wyatt. The 'often' puts it beyond doubt the old bat has been senile for decades. We all encounter unbearable people at drinks parties, and what we do is move out of their orbit as fast as possible and say to our mates or spouses or whatever You would not believe the utter awfulness of this person I met last night. Not go whining to the guardian about it.
  • Remarkable scoring in the Test from 'pindi.

    416-3 in the tea session. Pope is the third centurion of the day. Brook through 50 too.

    Quite remarkable.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803
    Leon said:

    pillsbury said:

    Leon said:

    The Balloux bolleux that’s causing a hullabaloux

    “I also find it distasteful that in the face of a humanitarian catastrophe that could kill ≥1M people, the main concern seems to be a hypothetical collateral problem to us.
    6/“

    https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1597512480711880704?s=46&t=T05TZVbmhDC-LBpgXplE4g

    I don't really see a problem here. Covid A. kills fatties and oldies which is very very tragic, but China doesn't give a toss about any of its citizens, let alone the economically unproductive, so why would anyone else, and B. causes huge lockdown based economic and social disruption, but China cannot get any more lockdownier than it already is and has been for over 2 years. So what difference does this make?
    China is actually easing lockdown in response to the protests - see Reuters etc

    They are on a terrifying tightrope. Lockdown cannot continue at this level of severity. People are rioting. Yet Omicron is lurking and will do what it does. It’s too infectious to stop

    10,000 died in Hong Kong in the end. Read across to China that implies 2m deaths

    They need to get MRNA jabs in elderly Chinese arms immediately
    The biggest issue for the world in five years' time, in my view, is the credibility of the CCP. For decades, the Chinese population have traded docility for growth. Docility to a competent government which brings growth is, for many, a reasonable ask. But docility to a government which is demonstrably as chaotic as any in the west, but with added brutality, rather raises the question of whether another system might be better.

    And the CCP can suppress dissent, but the more totalitarian it gets, the less China will prosper economically. And that has implications for the wider world too.
  • pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Hello everyone, hope you're all well.

    I'm shocked, shocked, to see that there's a racism problem in the Royal Family.

    Who could have possibly guessed that their and their most ardent supporters patented blend of condescension, harassment and victim-blaming of the King's own daughter-in-law would have been insufficient to make the racism problem just go away?

    A stupidity problem as well given that conversation.

    Or perhaps she's going senile.

    A risk you take when you employ too many very oldies.
    Did you hear Fulani on r4 this morning? She is so thick she makes Richard Burgon look like Immanuel Kant. Asking where you are from is actually not questioning your British citizenship. Not even close.
    Of course it is, don't be ridiculous.

    Repeatedly, even after getting an answer, challenging someone to demand where they are from, is to suggest that black people can't really be from Britain and they're really from somewhere else instead, even if they're born here.

    That you can't see the problem, is because you're part of the problem.
    I think she was rather rude, but it is a complex issue. Take cricket (at risk of falling foul of the Tebbit test). Often 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants support the nation that their parent or grandparents came from. (Although commonly its England against anyone else). People who have heritages from other parts of the world often retain a sense of that, and why not, its part of them.

    In this case you have an 83 year old making a mistake. At 83 she has seen the UK transition from having a few thousand non-white people (despite the desparate revisionism of some historians, the non-white population of the UK in 1939 was tiny) to the current country we live in. For the most part Britain is a successful example of integration of different populations.

    I am sure she meant not offence, but it was clumsy and comes across as rude. It should not be a witch hunt.
    You're right it shouldn't be a witch hunt, and if it was just a random old person saying something odd that would be the end of the matter.

    But what has been a witch-hunt is the years of abuse directed at eg the Duchess of Sussex or anyone else who raises concerns about racism. Perhaps if she and others had been treated with respect and their concerns listened to, then this unfortunate incident could have been avoided?

    When you have people representing the state, which is what the Royal Family does, then it must be held to the highest standards, not the lowest standards. If they don't want to be held to the highest standards, they shouldn't be representing the state. Plenty of old people in the privacy of their living room may say something odd or off that is a product of their time and age and not knowing better, that's not a problem. Representatives of the state doing so in an official capacity? That's a different matter.
    And that's why Hussey was immediately "asked" to retire.

    People are pretending that this justifies Markle's shit-stirring. It really doesn't (again, at least based on what we actually know so far.)
    You're right, this doesn't justify Markle raising concerns about the racism she's suffered, because that was already 100% justified.

    This just further confirms what we already knew, which is that there is a problem that ought to be addressed, but with Markle people wanted to abuse the victim instead of face the problem.
    But, Barty, Meghan is undoubtedly a pretty lady. Sadly she is also, beyond all reasonable doubt, a narcissistic bully and a liar. Why go out of your way to accept her frankly extraordinary claims of racism?
    Because there's nothing extraordinary whatsoever about her claims, except the response to it being to victim blame rather than to try to address her concerns with dignity and respect.
    Do you understand the concept "begging the question"?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    Leon said:

    pillsbury said:

    Leon said:

    The Balloux bolleux that’s causing a hullabaloux

    “I also find it distasteful that in the face of a humanitarian catastrophe that could kill ≥1M people, the main concern seems to be a hypothetical collateral problem to us.
    6/“

    https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1597512480711880704?s=46&t=T05TZVbmhDC-LBpgXplE4g

    I don't really see a problem here. Covid A. kills fatties and oldies which is very very tragic, but China doesn't give a toss about any of its citizens, let alone the economically unproductive, so why would anyone else, and B. causes huge lockdown based economic and social disruption, but China cannot get any more lockdownier than it already is and has been for over 2 years. So what difference does this make?
    China is actually easing lockdown in response to the protests - see Reuters etc

    They are on a terrifying tightrope. Lockdown cannot continue at this level of severity. People are rioting. Yet Omicron is lurking and will do what it does. It’s too infectious to stop

    10,000 died in Hong Kong in the end. Read across to China that implies 2m deaths

    They need to get MRNA jabs in elderly Chinese arms immediately
    Get EU/USA/UK to send a billion doses to China.

    In return for China cutting Russia adrift on Ukraine.
  • pillsbury said:

    ‘She often asked my mother where she was from because she had a central European accent. I am sometimes mistaken for non-British because of my colouring. I’m never offended.'

    Petronella Wyatt. The 'often' puts it beyond doubt the old bat has been senile for decades. We all encounter unbearable people at drinks parties, and what we do is move out of their orbit as fast as possible and say to our mates or spouses or whatever You would not believe the utter awfulness of this person I met last night. Not go whining to the guardian about it.

    You think its a defence to argue that she's been systematically racially abusing people for years, and that the Royal Family knew that, but they still felt it appropriate to send her out in an official capacity representing them and the state? And that victims of abuse should just STFU about it? 🤔

    If you met an awful person last night who was simply a retired old person in their own capacity, then that's between you and them. If you met an awful person last night who was representing the state in an official capacity, that's newsworthy and anyone who has seen that should stop it from happening again and could have stopped it by responding to prior concerns before it reached the Guardian.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    The EU's moderation rules can't be all that strict, if Twitter was deemed to be following them before this happened.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    edited December 2022
    Brook now on 72. Three consecutive boundaries.

    EDIT make that four five.

    Further EDIT - an over of 6 fours from Brook.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    edited December 2022
    509 is the record for the most runs in a single day of test cricket by one team.

    588 is the most runs in a single day.

    https://stats.acscricket.com/Records/Test/Overall/Team/Most_Runs_in_Day_Both_Sides.html
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    Still, at the end of the beginning if not the beginning of the end.

    This is as close to a ray of sunshine as I can get.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Brook now on 72. Three consecutive boundaries.

    EDIT make that four five.

    5 now....
  • 509 is the record for the most runs in a single day of test cricket by one team.

    What's the record for the number of centurions who start batting and reach a century all within one day?

    Brook is 16 away from being the 4th today.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    six 4's in the over. Highlights tonight will need to be 2 hours long...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Hello everyone, hope you're all well.

    I'm shocked, shocked, to see that there's a racism problem in the Royal Family.

    Who could have possibly guessed that their and their most ardent supporters patented blend of condescension, harassment and victim-blaming of the King's own daughter-in-law would have been insufficient to make the racism problem just go away?

    A stupidity problem as well given that conversation.

    Or perhaps she's going senile.

    A risk you take when you employ too many very oldies.
    Did you hear Fulani on r4 this morning? She is so thick she makes Richard Burgon look like Immanuel Kant. Asking where you are from is actually not questioning your British citizenship. Not even close.
    Of course it is, don't be ridiculous.

    Repeatedly, even after getting an answer, challenging someone to demand where they are from, is to suggest that black people can't really be from Britain and they're really from somewhere else instead, even if they're born here.

    That you can't see the problem, is because you're part of the problem.
    I think she was rather rude, but it is a complex issue. Take cricket (at risk of falling foul of the Tebbit test). Often 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants support the nation that their parent or grandparents came from. (Although commonly its England against anyone else). People who have heritages from other parts of the world often retain a sense of that, and why not, its part of them.

    In this case you have an 83 year old making a mistake. At 83 she has seen the UK transition from having a few thousand non-white people (despite the desparate revisionism of some historians, the non-white population of the UK in 1939 was tiny) to the current country we live in. For the most part Britain is a successful example of integration of different populations.

    I am sure she meant not offence, but it was clumsy and comes across as rude. It should not be a witch hunt.
    You're right it shouldn't be a witch hunt, and if it was just a random old person saying something odd that would be the end of the matter.

    But what has been a witch-hunt is the years of abuse directed at eg the Duchess of Sussex or anyone else who raises concerns about racism. Perhaps if she and others had been treated with respect and their concerns listened to, then this unfortunate incident could have been avoided?

    When you have people representing the state, which is what the Royal Family does, then it must be held to the highest standards, not the lowest standards. If they don't want to be held to the highest standards, they shouldn't be representing the state. Plenty of old people in the privacy of their living room may say something odd or off that is a product of their time and age and not knowing better, that's not a problem. Representatives of the state doing so in an official capacity? That's a different matter.
    And that's why Hussey was immediately "asked" to retire.

    People are pretending that this justifies Markle's shit-stirring. It really doesn't (again, at least based on what we actually know so far.)
    You're right, this doesn't justify Markle raising concerns about the racism she's suffered, because that was already 100% justified.

    This just further confirms what we already knew, which is that there is a problem that ought to be addressed, but with Markle people wanted to abuse the victim instead of face the problem.
    But, Barty, Meghan is undoubtedly a pretty lady. Sadly she is also, beyond all reasonable doubt, a narcissistic bully and a liar. Why go out of your way to accept her frankly extraordinary claims of racism?
    Because there's nothing extraordinary whatsoever about her claims, except the response to it being to victim blame rather than to try to address her concerns with dignity and respect.
    Well except that she's demonstrably lied about so many other things for the sake of a moment of 'look at me' that she's not exactly a credible witness.
  • pillsbury said:

    https://www.sistahspace.org/ is a laugh in itself, an attempt to frame black on black domestic violence as a manifestation of racism. Lovely big Donate button at the top for Bart to click on, though.

    I don't see any attempt to frame black on black domestic violence as a manifestation of racism on that home page.

    What I do see is a concern that police to victim relations might be subject to racism and that is a real concern.

    If a black woman is abused by a black man, that's not racism.
    If a black woman goes to report the abuse she has suffered to the Police and isn't treated with the same respect a white woman would have received reporting the abuse, that is racism.

    But good to see you attempt to move the conversation on by victim-blaming again. Its their fault, they weren't really racially abused. Playing the same playbook we see when anyone raises concerns, at least you're being consistent.

    Its Markle's fault she's making it all up. Its Sistah Space's fault, they're making it all up. Its everyone's fault but the racists eh?
    Yes, Bart. You live in a paranoid parallel universe to mine. In my timeline racism is simply not a thing among middle class British people, and it certainly bloody isn't when the mcBp are courtiers and the alleged victim is marrying the boss.

    I am sincerely sorry for you if you live in the bigoted hellhole you imply. More likely you are that pb archetype, the gammon kid who has found a woke costume in the dressing up box and is desperate to try it on, but can't work out which way round it goes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    edited December 2022
    84 from 64 balls. 11 balls to take the record fastest century from Gilbert Jessop.

    450 up.
  • pillsbury said:

    pillsbury said:

    Driver said:

    pillsbury said:

    Hello everyone, hope you're all well.

    I'm shocked, shocked, to see that there's a racism problem in the Royal Family.

    Who could have possibly guessed that their and their most ardent supporters patented blend of condescension, harassment and victim-blaming of the King's own daughter-in-law would have been insufficient to make the racism problem just go away?

    A stupidity problem as well given that conversation.

    Or perhaps she's going senile.

    A risk you take when you employ too many very oldies.
    Did you hear Fulani on r4 this morning? She is so thick she makes Richard Burgon look like Immanuel Kant. Asking where you are from is actually not questioning your British citizenship. Not even close.
    Of course it is, don't be ridiculous.

    Repeatedly, even after getting an answer, challenging someone to demand where they are from, is to suggest that black people can't really be from Britain and they're really from somewhere else instead, even if they're born here.

    That you can't see the problem, is because you're part of the problem.
    I think she was rather rude, but it is a complex issue. Take cricket (at risk of falling foul of the Tebbit test). Often 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants support the nation that their parent or grandparents came from. (Although commonly its England against anyone else). People who have heritages from other parts of the world often retain a sense of that, and why not, its part of them.

    In this case you have an 83 year old making a mistake. At 83 she has seen the UK transition from having a few thousand non-white people (despite the desparate revisionism of some historians, the non-white population of the UK in 1939 was tiny) to the current country we live in. For the most part Britain is a successful example of integration of different populations.

    I am sure she meant not offence, but it was clumsy and comes across as rude. It should not be a witch hunt.
    You're right it shouldn't be a witch hunt, and if it was just a random old person saying something odd that would be the end of the matter.

    But what has been a witch-hunt is the years of abuse directed at eg the Duchess of Sussex or anyone else who raises concerns about racism. Perhaps if she and others had been treated with respect and their concerns listened to, then this unfortunate incident could have been avoided?

    When you have people representing the state, which is what the Royal Family does, then it must be held to the highest standards, not the lowest standards. If they don't want to be held to the highest standards, they shouldn't be representing the state. Plenty of old people in the privacy of their living room may say something odd or off that is a product of their time and age and not knowing better, that's not a problem. Representatives of the state doing so in an official capacity? That's a different matter.
    And that's why Hussey was immediately "asked" to retire.

    People are pretending that this justifies Markle's shit-stirring. It really doesn't (again, at least based on what we actually know so far.)
    You're right, this doesn't justify Markle raising concerns about the racism she's suffered, because that was already 100% justified.

    This just further confirms what we already knew, which is that there is a problem that ought to be addressed, but with Markle people wanted to abuse the victim instead of face the problem.
    But, Barty, Meghan is undoubtedly a pretty lady. Sadly she is also, beyond all reasonable doubt, a narcissistic bully and a liar. Why go out of your way to accept her frankly extraordinary claims of racism?
    Because there's nothing extraordinary whatsoever about her claims, except the response to it being to victim blame rather than to try to address her concerns with dignity and respect.
    Do you understand the concept "begging the question"?
    Indeed, you are begging the question by phrasing anyone who raises concerns of abuse as being narcissistic or problematic and then using the fact that they are raising concerns of abuse to the Guardian to prove your point.

    Perhaps you should take your own advice and STFU more and listen to their accounts and take them seriously.
  • BBC Panorama on housing.

    Starts off with a woman who has owned a house for 24 years but currently has a 320k interest only mortgage.

    Did she not understand that mortgages are supposed to be paid off and that houses are not meant to be a cash machine ?

    Still she'll probably sell it for half a million more than she paid for it so I'll save my sympathy for the younger generation.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    📺 The National Audit Office has concluded that the 'Festival of Brexit' has failed to meet its audience engagement targets despite big boosts from TV specials
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/national-audit-office-probe-finds-unboxed-festival-failed-to-hit-audience-engagement-targets


    Another in a growing list of the 'Anything of Brexit' has failed to meet its targets
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I need to call this - he didn't predict >1M dead in China, he used the number in a thread about threats of new variants. There is no working attached to the number.
    A billion people in China, so 1 million is 0.1%. If China is effectively unvaccinated (is the Chinese vaccine really that poor?), that's the right sort of ballpark for almost everyone getting it almost simultaneously, isn't it?
  • pillsbury said:

    pillsbury said:

    https://www.sistahspace.org/ is a laugh in itself, an attempt to frame black on black domestic violence as a manifestation of racism. Lovely big Donate button at the top for Bart to click on, though.

    I don't see any attempt to frame black on black domestic violence as a manifestation of racism on that home page.

    What I do see is a concern that police to victim relations might be subject to racism and that is a real concern.

    If a black woman is abused by a black man, that's not racism.
    If a black woman goes to report the abuse she has suffered to the Police and isn't treated with the same respect a white woman would have received reporting the abuse, that is racism.

    But good to see you attempt to move the conversation on by victim-blaming again. Its their fault, they weren't really racially abused. Playing the same playbook we see when anyone raises concerns, at least you're being consistent.

    Its Markle's fault she's making it all up. Its Sistah Space's fault, they're making it all up. Its everyone's fault but the racists eh?
    Yes, Bart. You live in a paranoid parallel universe to mine. In my timeline racism is simply not a thing among middle class British people, and it certainly bloody isn't when the mcBp are courtiers and the alleged victim is marrying the boss.

    I am sincerely sorry for you if you live in the bigoted hellhole you imply. More likely you are that pb archetype, the gammon kid who has found a woke costume in the dressing up box and is desperate to try it on, but can't work out which way round it goes.
    I live in the real world where racism bloody well is a thing and I have seen and experienced it in real life. I've had my wife told to "go back to where she came from", many people here have expressed their personal encounters of racism, but sure, it simply doesn't exist. 🤦‍♂️

    Not everyone is racist, not everything is, most people don't want to be. But racism bloody well exists, is a problem, should be addressed and anyone who claims that "racism is simply not a thing" is either thick as pigshit, or a racist arse who can't recognise racism when it bites people far too often.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    68.4 overs to reach 450 - smashed the previous record.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    BBC Panorama on housing.

    Starts off with a woman who has owned a house for 24 years but currently has a 320k interest only mortgage.

    Did she not understand that mortgages are supposed to be paid off and that houses are not meant to be a cash machine ?

    Still she'll probably sell it for half a million more than she paid for it so I'll save my sympathy for the younger generation.

    A take on this. One of my colleagues, house worth 850,000 or so, was advised by financial advisor not to pay off his mortgage when he could, but instead to borrow more, as the financial advisor would make more money with the borrowed cash. My colleague did this for a certain sum (not the whole value) and indeed did reap much more in interest on the investment than the mortgage cost.

    Is this what the woman on the panorama was doing? Or is she just a feckwut?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Endillion said:

    The EU's moderation rules can't be all that strict, if Twitter was deemed to be following them before this happened.

    They had a department dealing with it before Elon Trussk sacked them all
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    Driver said:

    .

    pillsbury said:

    Hello everyone, hope you're all well.

    I'm shocked, shocked, to see that there's a racism problem in the Royal Family.

    Who could have possibly guessed that their and their most ardent supporters patented blend of condescension, harassment and victim-blaming of the King's own daughter-in-law would have been insufficient to make the racism problem just go away?

    A stupidity problem as well given that conversation.

    Or perhaps she's going senile.

    A risk you take when you employ too many very oldies.
    Did you hear Fulani on r4 this morning? She is so thick she makes Richard Burgon look like Immanuel Kant. Asking where you are from is actually not questioning your British citizenship. Not even close.
    Of course it is, don't be ridiculous.

    Repeatedly, even after getting an answer, challenging someone to demand where they are from, is to suggest that black people can't really be from Britain and they're really from somewhere else instead, even if they're born here.

    That you can't see the problem, is because you're part of the problem.
    I think she was rather rude, but it is a complex issue. Take cricket (at risk of falling foul of the Tebbit test). Often 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants support the nation that their parent or grandparents came from. (Although commonly its England against anyone else). People who have heritages from other parts of the world often retain a sense of that, and why not, its part of them.

    In this case you have an 83 year old making a mistake. At 83 she has seen the UK transition from having a few thousand non-white people (despite the desparate revisionism of some historians, the non-white population of the UK in 1939 was tiny) to the current country we live in. For the most part Britain is a successful example of integration of different populations.

    I am sure she meant not offence, but it was clumsy and comes across as rude. It should not be a witch hunt.
    Was it rude? Yes. Was it racist? Yes. Was it abuse? No. Did Hussey mean ill? No.

    Is Fulani making too much of it? Probably. For political reasons? Quite possibly.

    Does Fulani have any credibility whatsoever when she says she didn't want Hussey to lose her job? Definitely not.

    Then again, all of this is just based on a single account of the conversation from one of the participants.
    There were two other witnesses who corroborated the conversation which went as follows:

    Lady SH: Where are you from?

    Me: Sistah Space.

    SH: No, where do you come from?

    Me: We’re based in Hackney.

    SH: No, what part of Africa are YOU from?

    Me: I don’t know, they didn’t leave any records.

    SH: Well, you must know where you’re from, I spent time in France. Where are you from?

    Me: Here, UK

    SH: NO, but what Nationality are you?

    Me: I am born here and am British.

    SH: No, but where do you really come from, where do your people come from?

    Me: ‘My people’, lady, what is this?

    SH: Oh I can see I am going to have a challenge getting you to say where you’re from. When did you first come here?

    Me: Lady! I am a British national, my parents came here in the 50s when …

    SH: Oh, I knew we’d get there in the end, you’re Caribbean!

    Me: No Lady, I am of African heritage, Caribbean descent and British nationality.

    SH: Oh, so you’re from …”
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,787
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I think it is just a factor of getting older. I go to concerts of performers from the 60s/70s. I also go to some tribute bands (by the way the Illegal Eagles and Rumours of Fleetwood Mac I would suggest possibly outdo the originals. Highly recommend). Every time I go I look around at the rest of the audience I think you lot are all ancient. And then it dawns on me. It happens every time. I never learn.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    Nigelb said:

    kle4 said:

    I like that England's approach to dead pitches is to just go really fast, that way runs get racked up but you still have time to finish a match.

    What's the record for a first day total ?

    (Just to be clear, England have no chance at all of reaching it, whatever it is.)
    Apparently it's 494. England are 459/3. Only bad light can stop them from obliterating that record.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I think it is just a factor of getting older. I go to concerts of performers from the 60s/70s. I also go to some tribute bands (by the way the Illegal Eagles and Rumours of Fleetwood Mac I would suggest possibly outdo the originals. Highly recommend). Every time I go I look around at the rest of the audience I think you lot are all ancient. And then it dawns on me. It happens every time. I never learn.
    This is so fucking boring. I am aware that I am knocking on, and of the tendency for ageing people to lament the times and the mores

    I’m talking about young people in their twenties. Haven’t seen them in 3 years. They’ve aged 10. Some of them admit it
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I don't mean to be rude, but you're approaching your late 50s. Pre-pandemic was three years ago. It's in the nature of people to look older and fatter at that time of life. Careworn, too, for some, but hopefully not for all.

    I remain cheerfully angry about the excesses of lockdown - and the fact that lockdown's advocates seem to be avoiding a reckoning - and about the possibly man-made nature of the virus. And I agree that the west largely taking 18 months off has put us in a very difficult place. But I'm also more optimistic about the future now than I have been at any time since 2015.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,338
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I don't mean to be rude, but you're approaching your late 50s. Pre-pandemic was three years ago. It's in the nature of people to look older and fatter at that time of life. Careworn, too, for some, but hopefully not for all.

    I remain cheerfully angry about the excesses of lockdown - and the fact that lockdown's advocates seem to be avoiding a reckoning - and about the possibly man-made nature of the virus. And I agree that the west largely taking 18 months off has put us in a very difficult place. But I'm also more optimistic about the future now than I have been at any time since 2015.
    I’m talking about young people
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (29-30 Nov)

    Con: 22% (-3 from 22-23 Nov)
    Lab: 47% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 9% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (+4)
    Green: 5% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1598252934185488384

    Reform absolutely destroying the Tories now. Turning a bad defeat into an apocalyptic rout
    Amongst Leavers it is now Tories 37%, Labour 27%, RefUK 21% though I expect some of that Ref vote will go back to the Tories before the next election.

    I don't expect the Chester by election tonight to be too disastrous for the Tories though, the Tory voteshare fell there even in 2019 and there was a Brexit Party candidate then and it is demographically more likely to like Sunak than Boris, being closer to bluewall than redwall.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022

    Reform is a large reservoir of votes that isn't going to Labour. Most seats won't have a Refuk candidate. The only question is whether those votes go to Can't Be Arsed Party or hold their nose and vote Tory. Likely to be more than enough vote Tory to prevent a Labour majority.
    Using the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of polls, and allocating half of Reform share to Tory share and half of Green share to Labour share you get a Labour overall majority of 256.



    Adding ALL the Reform share to the Tory share you get an overall Labour majority of 174.



  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I need to call this - he didn't predict >1M dead in China, he used the number in a thread about threats of new variants. There is no working attached to the number.
    A billion people in China, so 1 million is 0.1%. If China is effectively unvaccinated (is the Chinese vaccine really that poor?), that's the right sort of ballpark for almost everyone getting it almost simultaneously, isn't it?
    No, if everyone in China was effectively unvaccinated, and had to do without hospital treatment, then the death rate would still be above 3%, depending on the age structure.

    I doubt the Chinese vaccines are completely useless, and some old people have been vaccinated, and most middle-aged people. Working out the potential death rate involves a few steps.
  • Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I think it is just a factor of getting older. I go to concerts of performers from the 60s/70s. I also go to some tribute bands (by the way the Illegal Eagles and Rumours of Fleetwood Mac I would suggest possibly outdo the originals. Highly recommend). Every time I go I look around at the rest of the audience I think you lot are all ancient. And then it dawns on me. It happens every time. I never learn.
    This is so fucking boring. I am aware that I am knocking on, and of the tendency for ageing people to lament the times and the mores

    I’m talking about young people in their twenties. Haven’t seen them in 3 years. They’ve aged 10. Some of them admit it
    It happens and is nothing to do with Covid. Ageing can be like bankruptcy, it happens gradually then suddenly, especially with a few years gap.

    I went out once with a Uni mate when we were both mid-20s that I hadn't seen in about 2 years. When I'd seen him last he'd seemed little different to when we were at Uni, but when I saw him this time he was suddenly balding. Mid-20s and balding, made him look at least a decade older.

    Similar happened with the new Prince of Wales, given the Royal Family chat, he lost his hair quite suddenly at a young age. Not a Covid symptom.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I don't mean to be rude, but you're approaching your late 50s. Pre-pandemic was three years ago. It's in the nature of people to look older and fatter at that time of life. Careworn, too, for some, but hopefully not for all.

    I remain cheerfully angry about the excesses of lockdown - and the fact that lockdown's advocates seem to be avoiding a reckoning - and about the possibly man-made nature of the virus. And I agree that the west largely taking 18 months off has put us in a very difficult place. But I'm also more optimistic about the future now than I have been at any time since 2015.
    I’m talking about young people
    Ah, fair enough. That's rather sadder.
  • Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I think it is just a factor of getting older. I go to concerts of performers from the 60s/70s. I also go to some tribute bands (by the way the Illegal Eagles and Rumours of Fleetwood Mac I would suggest possibly outdo the originals. Highly recommend). Every time I go I look around at the rest of the audience I think you lot are all ancient. And then it dawns on me. It happens every time. I never learn.
    This is so fucking boring. I am aware that I am knocking on, and of the tendency for ageing people to lament the times and the mores

    I’m talking about young people in their twenties. Haven’t seen them in 3 years. They’ve aged 10. Some of them admit it
    For most of us alive in the West now, the last few years have genuinely been the worst thing that we have lived through. Certainly that we remember. The years since 1945 have had problems and lots of fears. But a massive global disaster getting in the way of normal life? Not really.

    We've all been incredibly fortunate like that- perhaps too fortunate. We've assumed it will just continue being good, and then it didn't.

    But we have ourselves, our wits, each other and a lot of resources. And a lot of cool science to work through.

    The late1940s mostly weren't fun either.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Barnesian said:

    Driver said:

    .

    pillsbury said:

    Hello everyone, hope you're all well.

    I'm shocked, shocked, to see that there's a racism problem in the Royal Family.

    Who could have possibly guessed that their and their most ardent supporters patented blend of condescension, harassment and victim-blaming of the King's own daughter-in-law would have been insufficient to make the racism problem just go away?

    A stupidity problem as well given that conversation.

    Or perhaps she's going senile.

    A risk you take when you employ too many very oldies.
    Did you hear Fulani on r4 this morning? She is so thick she makes Richard Burgon look like Immanuel Kant. Asking where you are from is actually not questioning your British citizenship. Not even close.
    Of course it is, don't be ridiculous.

    Repeatedly, even after getting an answer, challenging someone to demand where they are from, is to suggest that black people can't really be from Britain and they're really from somewhere else instead, even if they're born here.

    That you can't see the problem, is because you're part of the problem.
    I think she was rather rude, but it is a complex issue. Take cricket (at risk of falling foul of the Tebbit test). Often 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants support the nation that their parent or grandparents came from. (Although commonly its England against anyone else). People who have heritages from other parts of the world often retain a sense of that, and why not, its part of them.

    In this case you have an 83 year old making a mistake. At 83 she has seen the UK transition from having a few thousand non-white people (despite the desparate revisionism of some historians, the non-white population of the UK in 1939 was tiny) to the current country we live in. For the most part Britain is a successful example of integration of different populations.

    I am sure she meant not offence, but it was clumsy and comes across as rude. It should not be a witch hunt.
    Was it rude? Yes. Was it racist? Yes. Was it abuse? No. Did Hussey mean ill? No.

    Is Fulani making too much of it? Probably. For political reasons? Quite possibly.

    Does Fulani have any credibility whatsoever when she says she didn't want Hussey to lose her job? Definitely not.

    Then again, all of this is just based on a single account of the conversation from one of the participants.
    There were two other witnesses who corroborated the conversation which went as follows:

    [snip the big text block]
    Yes, I've read that in a few places, all of which have been very careful to note that it comes just from Fulani. The other witnesses, as far as I've seen, have corroborated the general direction of the conversation but not any specific phrases.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Leon said:

    BAXTERED, that poll gives:

    Lab: 486
    Con: 66
    LDs: 20
    SNP: 50

    I actually think Labour would do better than that, coz they’d take more Scottish seats

    I just know if it happens the 'Tories wont vote for a brown man' crowd would say it proves their point.

    They have just been in power too long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (29-30 Nov)

    Con: 22% (-3 from 22-23 Nov)
    Lab: 47% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 9% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (+4)
    Green: 5% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1598252934185488384

    Reform absolutely destroying the Tories now. Turning a bad defeat into an apocalyptic rout
    Amongst Leavers it is now Tories 37%, Labour 27%, RefUK 21% though I expect some of that Ref vote will go back to the Tories before the next election.

    I don't expect the Chester by election tonight to be too disastrous for the Tories though, the Tory voteshare fell there even in 2019 and there was a Brexit Party candidate then and it is demographically more likely to like Sunak than Boris, being closer to bluewall than redwall.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022

    Reform is a large reservoir of votes that isn't going to Labour. Most seats won't have a Refuk candidate. The only question is whether those votes go to Can't Be Arsed Party or hold their nose and vote Tory. Likely to be more than enough vote Tory to prevent a Labour majority.
    Using the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of polls, and allocating half of Reform share to Tory share and half of Green share to Labour share you get a Labour overall majority of 256.



    Adding ALL the Reform share to the Tory share you get an overall Labour majority of 174.



    The Reform plus Tory share is 31% not 28%
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (29-30 Nov)

    Con: 22% (-3 from 22-23 Nov)
    Lab: 47% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 9% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (+4)
    Green: 5% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1598252934185488384

    Reform absolutely destroying the Tories now. Turning a bad defeat into an apocalyptic rout
    Amongst Leavers it is now Tories 37%, Labour 27%, RefUK 21% though I expect some of that Ref vote will go back to the Tories before the next election.

    I don't expect the Chester by election tonight to be too disastrous for the Tories though, the Tory voteshare fell there even in 2019 and there was a Brexit Party candidate then and it is demographically more likely to like Sunak than Boris, being closer to bluewall than redwall.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022

    Reform is a large reservoir of votes that isn't going to Labour. Most seats won't have a Refuk candidate. The only question is whether those votes go to Can't Be Arsed Party or hold their nose and vote Tory. Likely to be more than enough vote Tory to prevent a Labour majority.
    Using the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of polls, and allocating half of Reform share to Tory share and half of Green share to Labour share you get a Labour overall majority of 256.



    Adding ALL the Reform share to the Tory share you get an overall Labour majority of 174.



    The Reform plus Tory share is 31% not 28%
    @Barnesian has put the same image in twice.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Four centurions in a day!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I don't mean to be rude, but you're approaching your late 50s. Pre-pandemic was three years ago. It's in the nature of people to look older and fatter at that time of life. Careworn, too, for some, but hopefully not for all.

    I remain cheerfully angry about the excesses of lockdown - and the fact that lockdown's advocates seem to be avoiding a reckoning - and about the possibly man-made nature of the virus. And I agree that the west largely taking 18 months off has put us in a very difficult place. But I'm also more optimistic about the future now than I have been at any time since 2015.
    I’m talking about young people
    Ah, fair enough. That's rather sadder.
    It's Leons view of the party. That's unique to Leon, as was everyone's experience of the party. It was Leon's belief about the effects of Covid and his mood about going to the party (you didn't want to go, right?) that created his experience of the party, not the experience of the party that created the belief.
  • Yorkshire!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,787
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I think it is just a factor of getting older. I go to concerts of performers from the 60s/70s. I also go to some tribute bands (by the way the Illegal Eagles and Rumours of Fleetwood Mac I would suggest possibly outdo the originals. Highly recommend). Every time I go I look around at the rest of the audience I think you lot are all ancient. And then it dawns on me. It happens every time. I never learn.
    This is so fucking boring. I am aware that I am knocking on, and of the tendency for ageing people to lament the times and the mores

    I’m talking about young people in their twenties. Haven’t seen them in 3 years. They’ve aged 10. Some of them admit it
    Well you didn't say you were talking about people in their 20s. How the hell was I supposed to know? I made the reasonable assumption that you party with people of your approximate age. Get a grip with the anger.

    And I wasn't talking about lamenting the times and the mores. I don't do that. Just that I forget I am 68. In fact I have always tended to mix with people younger than me, a factor of being heavily involved in active sports later in life and not getting married or having children until my forties so most people I mix with are 10 or more years younger than me.
  • NEW THREAD
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    BAXTERED, that poll gives:

    Lab: 486
    Con: 66
    LDs: 20
    SNP: 50

    I actually think Labour would do better than that, coz they’d take more Scottish seats

    I just know if it happens the 'Tories wont vote for a brown man' crowd would say it proves their point.

    They have just been in power too long.
    Sunak still generally polling better than Truss albeit Boris polled better than both, even in the summer.

    Brown trailed Cameron by 20%+ in 2008 though and slashed that lead to 7% by polling day so hope for Sunak to cut Starmer's lead too being also the incumbent
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I don't mean to be rude, but you're approaching your late 50s. Pre-pandemic was three years ago. It's in the nature of people to look older and fatter at that time of life. Careworn, too, for some, but hopefully not for all.

    I remain cheerfully angry about the excesses of lockdown - and the fact that lockdown's advocates seem to be avoiding a reckoning - and about the possibly man-made nature of the virus. And I agree that the west largely taking 18 months off has put us in a very difficult place. But I'm also more optimistic about the future now than I have been at any time since 2015.
    I’m talking about young people
    Ah, fair enough. That's rather sadder.
    I'm still finding Long Covid debilitating 5 months on from actually having a (pretty mild case) of covid. Whilst I was ill I was just feverish and tired - now I'm wheezy, get flop sweats, aches and pains etc. When I used to walk 5 miles a day, no issue, a 15 minute walk down the village high street leaves me puffed out. And I'm in my early 30s.

    I find it weird that all these negatives make people wish lock downs were less stringent, though. If we had managed the spread better, fewer people would have got ill and fewer young people specifically would now have something doctors cannot say how long will last. In all my conversations with friends and family it is people my age and younger who found lockdown hard, but also would have kept them longer if the government had been willing, who still wear masks, who were most willing to get their jab etc.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,994
    edited December 2022
    Light stops play at 506-4

    What an incredible Day 1. Truly impressive batting. Would reall ylove to see them score the same again and get to 4 figures tomorrow, though I can't see that happening.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Yet again a nonsense decision from test cricket - the batsman are not in difficulty. Why go off? Only justification is danger to the fielders.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    148grss said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I don't mean to be rude, but you're approaching your late 50s. Pre-pandemic was three years ago. It's in the nature of people to look older and fatter at that time of life. Careworn, too, for some, but hopefully not for all.

    I remain cheerfully angry about the excesses of lockdown - and the fact that lockdown's advocates seem to be avoiding a reckoning - and about the possibly man-made nature of the virus. And I agree that the west largely taking 18 months off has put us in a very difficult place. But I'm also more optimistic about the future now than I have been at any time since 2015.
    I’m talking about young people
    Ah, fair enough. That's rather sadder.
    I'm still finding Long Covid debilitating 5 months on from actually having a (pretty mild case) of covid. Whilst I was ill I was just feverish and tired - now I'm wheezy, get flop sweats, aches and pains etc. When I used to walk 5 miles a day, no issue, a 15 minute walk down the village high street leaves me puffed out. And I'm in my early 30s.

    I find it weird that all these negatives make people wish lock downs were less stringent, though. If we had managed the spread better, fewer people would have got ill and fewer young people specifically would now have something doctors cannot say how long will last. In all my conversations with friends and family it is people my age and younger who found lockdown hard, but also would have kept them longer if the government had been willing, who still wear masks, who were most willing to get their jab etc.
    Sorry to hear that. Have you had any interaction with the health service about this?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,583
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (29-30 Nov)

    Con: 22% (-3 from 22-23 Nov)
    Lab: 47% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 9% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (+4)
    Green: 5% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1598252934185488384

    Reform absolutely destroying the Tories now. Turning a bad defeat into an apocalyptic rout
    Amongst Leavers it is now Tories 37%, Labour 27%, RefUK 21% though I expect some of that Ref vote will go back to the Tories before the next election.

    I don't expect the Chester by election tonight to be too disastrous for the Tories though, the Tory voteshare fell there even in 2019 and there was a Brexit Party candidate then and it is demographically more likely to like Sunak than Boris, being closer to bluewall than redwall.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022

    Reform is a large reservoir of votes that isn't going to Labour. Most seats won't have a Refuk candidate. The only question is whether those votes go to Can't Be Arsed Party or hold their nose and vote Tory. Likely to be more than enough vote Tory to prevent a Labour majority.
    Using the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of polls, and allocating half of Reform share to Tory share and half of Green share to Labour share you get a Labour overall majority of 256.



    Adding ALL the Reform share to the Tory share you get an overall Labour majority of 174.



    The Reform plus Tory share is 31% not 28%
    That's the latest YouGov poll.
    HYUFD said:

    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Latest Westminster voting intention (29-30 Nov)

    Con: 22% (-3 from 22-23 Nov)
    Lab: 47% (-1)
    Lib Dem: 9% (=)
    Reform UK: 9% (+4)
    Green: 5% (=)
    SNP: 4% (=)

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022


    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1598252934185488384

    Reform absolutely destroying the Tories now. Turning a bad defeat into an apocalyptic rout
    Amongst Leavers it is now Tories 37%, Labour 27%, RefUK 21% though I expect some of that Ref vote will go back to the Tories before the next election.

    I don't expect the Chester by election tonight to be too disastrous for the Tories though, the Tory voteshare fell there even in 2019 and there was a Brexit Party candidate then and it is demographically more likely to like Sunak than Boris, being closer to bluewall than redwall.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/12/01/voting-intention-con-22-lab-47-29-30-nov-2022

    Reform is a large reservoir of votes that isn't going to Labour. Most seats won't have a Refuk candidate. The only question is whether those votes go to Can't Be Arsed Party or hold their nose and vote Tory. Likely to be more than enough vote Tory to prevent a Labour majority.
    Using the EMA (Exponential Moving Average) of polls, and allocating half of Reform share to Tory share and half of Green share to Labour share you get a Labour overall majority of 256.



    Adding ALL the Reform share to the Tory share you get an overall Labour majority of 174.



    The Reform plus Tory share is 31% not 28%
    31.5% on EMA. Gives a Labour majority of 174.

    Sorry I duplicated the first table.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Endillion said:

    The EU's moderation rules can't be all that strict, if Twitter was deemed to be following them before this happened.

    Yes, exactly.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    Scott_xP said:

    Endillion said:

    The EU's moderation rules can't be all that strict, if Twitter was deemed to be following them before this happened.

    They had a department dealing with it before Elon Trussk sacked them all
    More accurately - he has halved the human moderation teams and increased the usage of AI moderation systems.

    The theory is that this is more scaleable, and less reliant on human biases. Yes, I said *theory*
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362

    Yet again a nonsense decision from test cricket - the batsman are not in difficulty. Why go off? Only justification is danger to the fielders.

    It was 20 minutes before sunset. Not unexpected. The umpires were unsighted a couple of times near the end.

    The silly thing is that play was scheduled to start at 10am local time, so there was never going to be time to get three full sessions of two hours each in before sunset, let alone a longer final session to get the overs in. Sunrise is at 06:55 local time, so they really should have started play at 09:00 local time.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,437
    148grss said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Francois Balloux, the UCL bug boffin, is speculating on Twitter that >1 million Chinese people will shortly die of Covid

    If true that will be the story of the winter. Huge ramifications - economics, geopolitics, etc

    It will be a big story while it happens, but have there really been huge ramifications from the similar number who died in the US?

    It will happen. It will be dreadful while it happens. And then it will be over.
    We are only just beginning to comprehend the long term damage from Covid in the west: buggered economies, vast debt, Long Covid, excess deaths, cities in crisis, and much more yet to play out, worldwide. Yes it’s huge

    Adding in 1m suddenly dead in China will only make it vaster. China’s health system could fail. The CCP might lose control. Global supply chains will seize up - again

    The 2020s are not getting any easier. Unfortunately



    I hate to say it, but I'm nodding along with you. Not quite as doomy, but it's going to be very unpleasant.
    Add to that the NHS/ambulance/A&E crisis.

    On the flip side, the vaccine advances have been astonishing. They're on the verge of a pan-influenza vaccine (which could forever end the century-long threat of another horrific influenza pandemic), a pan-coronavirus vaccine, an HIV vaccine is in trials, a proper and effective malaria vaccine has been approved, and vaccines against rheumatoid arthritis and multiple sclerosis are looking close.

    Plus advances in understanding the immune system giving them finally a crack in the wall of dementia.

    Hell of a cost getting here, though.
    I went to a party last night at the Ivy. I saw people I haven’t seen since pre-pandemic

    What struck me was how much older everyone looked. And careworn. And often fatter. Maybe even poorer. I include myself in this

    What Covid has visibly done to us - physically - it has also done to everything else: economies, polities, social networks, relationships, cities, the arts, restaurants, shops, everything

    It is an enormous disaster, indeed it is so vast I think we haven’t quite grasped the size of it. Perhaps we don’t want to. Understandable

    But it is slowly coming into view. The magnitude of the damage. And even now in China the apparent denouement is playing out, and it could be nasty indeed

    I apologise for the doom-mongering
    I don't mean to be rude, but you're approaching your late 50s. Pre-pandemic was three years ago. It's in the nature of people to look older and fatter at that time of life. Careworn, too, for some, but hopefully not for all.

    I remain cheerfully angry about the excesses of lockdown - and the fact that lockdown's advocates seem to be avoiding a reckoning - and about the possibly man-made nature of the virus. And I agree that the west largely taking 18 months off has put us in a very difficult place. But I'm also more optimistic about the future now than I have been at any time since 2015.
    I’m talking about young people
    Ah, fair enough. That's rather sadder.
    I'm still finding Long Covid debilitating 5 months on from actually having a (pretty mild case) of covid. Whilst I was ill I was just feverish and tired - now I'm wheezy, get flop sweats, aches and pains etc. When I used to walk 5 miles a day, no issue, a 15 minute walk down the village high street leaves me puffed out. And I'm in my early 30s.

    I find it weird that all these negatives make people wish lock downs were less stringent, though. If we had managed the spread better, fewer people would have got ill and fewer young people specifically would now have something doctors cannot say how long will last. In all my conversations with friends and family it is people my age and younger who found lockdown hard, but also would have kept them longer if the government had been willing, who still wear masks, who were most willing to get their jab etc.
    Sorry to hear that. Have you had a blood test? That might highlight some things.
  • I’m pleased to hear this. It’s time for fresh leadership & tolerance of debate & diverse viewpoints. I hope @theSNP Westminster group will be now be left to choose our new leader without outside interference & in accordance with our standing orders.

    https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1598283472380231680

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,872

    mwadams said:

    I seem to have a hazy recollection of our remoaner contingent being upset recently that a flood of cheap Australian beef was going to undermine our plucky British farmers. You could at least coordinate your stories and decide whether cheap food is a good or a bad thing.
    I would have thought that our farmers being screwed over *and* our food costing £200 more would be more of a double whammy than an inconsistency?
    The supposed screw over of farmers is a future scenario based on the scary prospect that British consumers would have access to cheaper imported meat. This is evidently a baaaaaaaad thing. Except it seems when we're bemoaning high food prices, based on increased costs of food imported from the EU. A statement consistent with 'Australiageddon' would be to celebrate British farmers' success in securing a great price for their produce. If you can't see the whopping inconsistency there, I don't know what to say to you.
    Isn't allowing lots of cheap south american meat in the basis of the mercosur agreement that the eu was forging with the south americans. They get it export meat tariff free in return for germany being able to export dishwashers et al? If so how is it fine when its the eu screwing british farmers, but not ok when its our own governement?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    pillsbury said:

    Hello everyone, hope you're all well.

    I'm shocked, shocked, to see that there's a racism problem in the Royal Family.

    Who could have possibly guessed that their and their most ardent supporters patented blend of condescension, harassment and victim-blaming of the King's own daughter-in-law would have been insufficient to make the racism problem just go away?

    A stupidity problem as well given that conversation.

    Or perhaps she's going senile.

    A risk you take when you employ too many very oldies.
    Did you hear Fulani on r4 this morning? She is so thick she makes Richard Burgon look like Immanuel Kant. Asking where you are from is actually not questioning your British citizenship. Not even close.
    Of course it is, don't be ridiculous.

    Repeatedly, even after getting an answer, challenging someone to demand where they are from, is to suggest that black people can't really be from Britain and they're really from somewhere else instead, even if they're born here.

    That you can't see the problem, is because you're part of the problem.
    I think she was rather rude, but it is a complex issue. Take cricket (at risk of falling foul of the Tebbit test). Often 2nd and 3rd generation immigrants support the nation that their parent or grandparents came from. (Although commonly its England against anyone else). People who have heritages from other parts of the world often retain a sense of that, and why not, its part of them.

    In this case you have an 83 year old making a mistake. At 83 she has seen the UK transition from having a few thousand non-white people (despite the desparate revisionism of some historians, the non-white population of the UK in 1939 was tiny) to the current country we live in. For the most part Britain is a successful example of integration of different populations.

    I am sure she meant not offence, but it was clumsy and comes across as rude. It should not be a witch hunt.
    The speed with which she was removed indicates to me that the the younger royals knew exactly what sort of person they were dealing with and it is not some amiable old dear that should be excused for making the odd faux pas.
This discussion has been closed.