The UK Supreme Court judgement that the Scottish Parliament does not have the right tohold a referendum on independence because it is a ‘reserved matter’ to Westminster maynot have been a surprise, but this was still a landmark day for Scotland, independence andthe UK.
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I can't forget the time or place where we first met
I am a Balrog,
He was just a beardless Istari you bet
Rah rah rah rah-rah rah
He came into by smoking room
And called me names like Flame of Udûn
I failed to see the joke, I burned his bridge
But then it broke too soon
Ahhhh...
Falling, yes I am falling
And Gandalf's falling along with me
Falling, yes I am falling
And Gandalf's falling along with me
I got him with my whip
I made the daft old mongrel slip
He grabbed on to my mane
And now we're going down in flames, bad trip
Ow ow ow ow-ow ow
What a palaver
He beat seven shades of lava out of me
This freefall free-for-all
Is sapping all my flammability
Ow ow ow ow-ow ow
Falling, yes I am falling
And Gandalf's falling along with me
Falling, yes I am falling
And Gandalf's falling along with me
I've done some silly things
But that's the price that evil brings
And though I'm ages old,
I wish someone had told me I had wings
Ow flap ow flap-flap ow
Long I fell and he fell too
He tried to tell me what to do
When he said “fly you fool”,
You see he meant it just for me, not you
Ow, flap, ow, flap-flap splash
Falling, yes I am falling
And Gandalf's falling along with me
Falling, yes I am falling
And Gandalf's falling along with me
Through the caverns
To the top of Caradhras, you bet your life we stopped
That's not the tiring bit,
It's having too say “tag you're it” non-stop
Neah neah neah neah-neah neah
I could have had him beat,
But somehow he can stand the heat
I could have taken him
Except he had a magic ring, the cheat!
Raaah grrrrr raah
Falling, yes I am falling
And Gandalf's falling along with me
Falling, yes I am falling
And Gandalf's falling along with me
I've ranted and I've roared
I wish I'd stayed back with my hoard
I thank the evil lord
This wizard doesn't wield an elven sw-
Ooor! Falling... urh oh ow ... no no no... Ow Argh Arrgh
So on current polls it will almost certainly be a Labour government which has to decide whether to grant an indyref2 or not. A decision to grant one would probably be likely if a Labour minority government reliant on SNP support or an SNP and nationalist majority again after the next Holyrood elections.
If there is to be another referendum it will therefore be Starmer not Sunak who decides to allow it and Starmer's problem then to win it if he grants it. That will almost certainly include a Gordon Brown led grand new Federal settlement for the UK plus devomax for Scots
https://twitter.com/BBCWomansHour/status/1595003565646532615
(See housing, investment, infrastructure, shape of Brexit...)
Everyone agreed last time that a majority in the Scottish Parliament was enough to request one, and grounds to grant one. But everyone also agreed that would be it for several years (‘a generation’).
Now there are two issues here. First, it was obvious even at the time that the SNP, a bit like UKIP, made that pledge in bad faith. If they lost the referendum by anything other than a landslide they would immediately start agitating for a new referendum on the grounds ‘opinion may have changed.’ Helpfully, from their point of view, 2016 did mean a material change they could further agitate for.
The second, much bigger mistake was not saying exactly how long ‘a generation’ was. In the Northern Ireland scenario, which is actually a little less clear cut than the article implies on when and how a poll shall be called, border polls may not be held less than seven years after a previous one.* If a provision had been written in in 2014 that no further poll could be called for ten years, things would now be easier. As it is a generation is usually defined as around 25 years. However, the wording is ambiguous. That is something that would need to be addressed in any new referendum pledge, but given it suits all involved not to do so it probably wouldn’t be.
*Northern Ireland is also a different scenario as at the time the GFA was written, in law it was technically part of Ireland administered by Britain at the request of its inhabitants. That was not only the Irish Constitution but also the founding document of the Irish Free State, which suspended the powers of the Free State in the six counties after one month. Also, it would not be seeking to become independent but to reunite with Ireland. Finally, it is worth noting a border poll would have to be held in both Ireland and Northern Ireland and pass in both to be successful. That’s an uncomfortable parallel for Sturgeon, even though I can’t help wondering if given how stridently xenophobic Scotland’s government has become the English might vote to boot them out of the Union given a chance.
Isle of White UA, Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet
Lib Dem 526
Con 239
Green 153
Vectis 36
Labour 31
Lib Dem GAIN from Conservative!
Bassetlaw DC, Sutton
Labour 301
Tory 224
Lib Dem 12
Labour GAIN from Con
Does it have any legal or constitutional heft? Or is it like a JLR warranty?
Scotland could continually vote the SNP in on a mandate of independence and the UK parliament could continually refuse the request.
The worst part of the judgement is that it infers referenda in general have a pseudo-legal power that was never the case before this judgement.
The only route available to Scottish independence now to my mind is now much more drastic should the demos of Scotland wish it.
Westminster boycotts and abandoning potentially the crown are on the table now - but I think if Labour are elected appetite for the new higher bar independence will wane.
Sturgeon is probably gone before Starmer as leader imv.
The issue relives when Labour come to the end of their stint in power... and that really will be a generation mid 2030s
But it would have been much better to say, ‘no further application for a Section 30 order will be considered for X years.’
Edit - with hindsight arguably the SNP were the ones who made the error, as if they had asked for a ten year hiatus they would surely have got it, and they would now have a pretty much unanswerable case for a second referendum next year.
But their fingers crossed attitude and their apparently entirely sincere belief the referendum would lead to an enormous upsurge in support for independence which would mean they would quickly get it led them to miss a trick.
Put it this way, he would have been better off not saying it.
For me, this is meaningless. The decision is one for the Scottish people not the SNP or their leadership. The Scottish people voted in favour of parties who said they wanted a referendum. They did so in absolute numbers, not just in terms of the majority that they got in Holyrood. The UK government rejects that request at their peril and I say that as a fervent Unionist. I think that Sunak should say yes but offer a date a few years hence, say 2026. He should also be explicit that the UK government would not say yes again for 20 years thereafter and accepting this is a condition of the consent.
I acknowledge that this would be a blight on the Scottish economy, just as the neverendum was in 2014, but that is what people voted for and a democracy should respect that.
Two obstacles remain, which are gigantic. In ascending order they are:
There is a very recent referendum already on the record, the result of which was clear.
Current polling gives no indication at all of the sort of preponderance of opinion to justify as further one so soon, or indeed at all.
Scottish politics and polling will continue, and perhaps things will change.
Here is a compromise: Labour win in 2024. Referendum to join EFTA/EEA for the whole of the UK. Join. Reset. Debate can then continue without the Gretna SM border question. Brexit is still honoured. Sanity prevails.
Dave only become an MP in 2001, Keir in 2015.
I don’t see how Sunak can offer a date beyond the next election unless he has agreed it with Starmer. Otherwise the SNP will just accuse him of lying on the grounds it won’t be his decision by then.
You are also right about the democratic will of the Scottish people, and how it is being ignored, but unfortunately the whole way this has been set up means that actually doesn’t count. Perhaps something else for politicians to ponder when they start setting up such agreements.
The Edinburgh Agreement states that a referendum must be held by the end of 2014. There is no arrangement in place for another referendum on independence.
It is the view of the current Scottish Government that a referendum is a once-in-a-generation opportunity. This means that only a majority vote for Yes in 2014 would give certainty that Scotland will be independent.
https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-future/pages/15/
There are bright students and working-age people prepared to support the Conservatives, but by golly they're thin on the ground at the moment. And a lot of the issues turning them away look fundamental, not temporary.
And whilst can win elections just with support of the elderly, you do need a certain number to bright working-age people to make a party function.
Starmer: ‘This parliament didn’t request it, I didn’t approve it. It’s hereby repealed.’
I think it would have to be something like ‘2027, if a majority of that new Parliament votes to ask for one’ in your scenario.
Which would be the very thing you’re trying to avoid - ignoring the mandate of this one.
Although TBF @Leon could probably teach them a thing or two…
Except SeanT. He seems to believe everything he writes....
So it could only be a pledge, rather than a full order, in the scenario you outline?
If I’m wrong, please correct me, but that’s my understanding.
Edit - on that subject, another poster is still trying to lecture me on the new National Institute for Teaching which he doesn’t understand but thinks he’s an expert on. There’s another one who shouldn’t believe everything he thinks…
Plus even Canada waited 15 years until its second referendum was allowed not just 8 years and No still narrowly won
Nurses to strike for two days before Christmas
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63746334
A 10% rise in electricity prices is associated with a 0.6% increase in deaths, concentrated among the elderly and infirm. If the historical relationships between mortality, weather and energy costs continue to apply—which they may not, given how high current prices are—the death toll from the energy weapon could exceed the number of soldiers who have died so far in direct combat from bullets, shells, missiles and drones. It is one more reason why Ukraine’s fight against Russia is Europe’s, too.
I wouldn't be on this bus for a start.
The only problem with that definition, is that the SNP would let primary school children vote if it let them hold it sooner.
So I’ll stick with a generation is being at least 18 years.
The Tories can govern with the LDs as in 2010 to 2015 or with the populist right, UKIP would have held the balance of power in 2015 with PR for example
French team to build replica of William the Conqueror’s warship
Viking-style vessel is based on the one that launched invasion of England in 1066 and its makers hope to sail it across Channel
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/25/french-team-build-replica-william-conqueror-warship?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
‘It is agreed that nothing in this report prevents Scotland becoming an independent country in the future should the people of Scotland so decide.’
London’s Stock Market Edges Back Above Paris After Pound Surge
UK market capital lost top spot to Paris 10 days ago Move driven by sterling rebound, French luxury rally easing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-24/london-s-stock-market-edges-back-above-paris-after-pound-surge#xj4y7vzkg?
But I agree - the vote in the Holyrood election last year was clear. Their mandate for another referendum is clear. And the reality that such a vote would likely again be for no.
What needs to happen now is simple - we have to settle the argument. An absolute majority voted for parties wanting a referendum. But there isn't a clear majority in favour of actual independence. So we need to adopt the measure from NI and the language previously used by the likes of Thatcher and Major.
If there is a majority in Holrood for independence, and there is 60% in the polls for Yes, then there MUST be a referendum. But if No wins they can't have one again for at least 7 years.
Better still - lets address the democratic deficit driving the push to leave. What Westminster parties are doing in response to the SC is the opposite.
- A generation has not passed, though there is no attempt to define to clarify thoughts on what a generation might be (I guess since it is not in this parliament). You could use the GFA 7 years, a typical parent-first child generation of 25-30+ years, or the political (not born-eligible to vote) or a lower possible legal parent-fitst child generation of around 16 years (I'd say this). I guess Jack prefers the 'once it's a cold day in hell definition of a generation, but then it's fair to say Con rule reflects some of the perceived recklessness and chaos of an underage pregnancy.
- The line seems to be that there hasn't been a clear shift in polling or at elections to justify re-asking the question.
I think polling does play a role in this, unless you call a referendum about whether to hold a referendum it has to.
On the Scottish elections. A mandate came from seats for Scotland to ask, not to get.
Jack says that SNP got one third of the votes (by the invariably dishonest method of multiplying by turnout). The SNP cherry pick the list vote for their pro-Indy vote majority. It's true that counting all the votes, list and constituency,, pro-Indy fell.just short of winning the popular vote, as I think it has done at all previous elections since 2014.
So, I'd sort of agree that we haven't had a generation and there has not been a sea change. I think, because of the consequences ,I do support the decision sitting at Westminster, though it sits uncomfortably that there is no formal condition under which there is an obligation to agree to Scotland's requests.
But then an elected majority by the rules of that majority did ask, and own the political peril of asking too much. Even though I think Westminster should hold the key, I'm not convinced they should refuse - and that is a political peril they own.
Under PR? If people want to elect REFUK MPs then great - let them! UKIP reached a peak of 4m votes and not a single MP. I may vehemently disagree with UKIP/REFUK but I am a democrat and people should get what they vote for.
https://twitter.com/andrewteale/status/1596059108742172673
The issue is he's never willing to admit when he's wrong, which he is, often and spectacularly. I'm not sure whether that's arrogance or a slightly childish desire to wind people up (like that time I messed around with you over whether birds are animals).
It is, of course, rude and exasperating. But he is on balance an asset to the site.
LAB: 50% (-)
CON: 27% (-1)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 4% (-)
via @techneUK, 23 - 24 Nov
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/11/britainpredicts
And this is an interesting piece by the Guardian - by Professor Scothorne, who is not, at least in my memory, by a long shot one to produce automatic pro-indy pieces .
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/nov/24/supreme-court-scottish-nationalists-judgment
'It is worth spelling out exactly what is being said here. On the one hand, the court is acknowledging that an independence referendum conducted by the Scottish government would have democratic legitimacy, even if it was not legally binding. This is a strikingly nationalist answer to the question of who decides. It recognises that, were the Scottish people given a choice on independence, their expressed views would meaningfully determine whether Scotland gets independence. This, you might think, is a good and correct thing, in a “constitution and political culture founded upon democracy”. And yet it is the linchpin of an argument against the Scottish government holding such a referendum.
This is because, as far as the UK constitution is concerned, the answer to “who decides?” is unambiguous: the UK parliament has the final say. It can pass or repeal any law it wants by a simple majority. If other laws get in the way of doing so, parliament can change or repeal those too. If the supreme court had ruled in favour of the Scottish government, the UK parliament could have amended the Scotland Act to explicitly reserve “advisory” referendums. In constitutional terms, what the supreme court ruling says is that the Scottish people and their democratic rights are irrelevant.
But it also tells us that, in political terms, they – we – do matter. We matter because of precisely that “political culture founded on democracy” with which the supreme court defended its judgment.'
As the dust starts to settle on the Supreme Court verdict, it’s incredibly important that Nationalist and Unionist alike understand there remains a lawful, constitutional and democratic path to independence for those who wish to pursue it 1/
That path is persuasion. Everyone understands & agrees that the decision-maker is the Scottish people. So, if you want indy, persuade them! When it is clearly and constantly the settled will of the Scottish people to have either indyref2 or independence itself, they’ll have it 2/
https://twitter.com/ProfTomkins/status/1595701026753216514
And from the other side of the argument:
Problem I've got just now is that I don't believe top-brass SNP when they insist they want a referendum soon. This impasse is an electoral goldmine. The salience of this argument about democracy only resonates in presence of undeniable popular support for indy.….
I just don't feel that support growing outside of those who are already onside. A pro indy majority exists in parliament but it’s not exactly overwhelming. Until that changes then UK govt can sit in and refer to 2014. I desire independence for Scotland based on a definitive result..
You cant expect an electorally significant mass of people to suddenly warm to idea of more political/economic upheaval in middle of a cost of living catastrophe. Not least when Brexit (painful breakup of a political/ economic union) is being used as the justification for it.
https://twitter.com/lokiscottishrap/status/1595549182047182851
The answer to your question is quite simple in principle but challenging to define in practice
The Scottish government needs to convince the Westminster parliament (in practice the UK government) that it is the “settled will” of the Scottish people that there should be independence. This would need to be validated in a referendum.
Scotland’s partners in the Union have rights as well, so there should be a meaningful threshold that needs to be surmounted for there to be a referendum.
However, I don’t think it is necessary or appropriate to define a criteria. Lots of factors play a role - opinion polls, share of the vote, Holyrood seats, the passage of time, etc.
ultimately it needs to be a point of discussion and persuasion - in fact to say “you need to do X and you can have a referendum” framed the relationship as being adversarial and Scotland being subordinate. That is not true - they are a partner in the Union and if that is to be unwound then it needs to be collaborative. And the British people as a whole are fair minded - if it is clear that a referendum is the “settled will” of the Scots then the voters will punish a Westminster government that acts unreasonably
There is a tendency for populations always to say they are content to have a vote on issue X if they are asked in a poll - people like being asked.
But the critical thing required for a further referendum is clear evidence of a sustained preponderance of opinion in favour of the change. We already (2014) have the evidence that there isn't; there is so far no evidence that there is.
Also worth a read - Oliver Tickell.
'At different times, the ambiguity about Holyrood’s power to legislate for a second poll has helped both the UK and Scottish Governments. This judgment leaves both positions exposed. It used to be a settled principle in Scottish constitutional life that the Union is voluntary, and that Scots retain the right to determine the form of government best suited to their needs. This was a principle once endorsed not only by pro-independence politicians, but by Scottish Labour, the Liberal Democrats and some Tory politicians. Some still genuflect in this direction.
The UK Supreme Court may not accept that Scots have a right to secede from the UK in international law – but most Scots take it for granted that they have a democratic right to self-determination. Devolution at its best sense was once monument to the idea. The 2014 referendum was another. Whether or not you support Scottish self-government, the idea this long-nurtured, deep-planted and widespread constitutional consciousness can be technically expunged by a judgment of the court is pure fantasy. The legal question about the limits of devolution may be decided. But the constitutional politics – rightly – rumble on.'
Will be interesting to see what happens now they have sort of admitted to being part of the same party as Messrs/Mdmes Johnson, Rees-Mogg, Truss, Sunak and Hunt.
What doesn't change is that the people of Scotland voted in a majority for another referendum and are being refused it. Think about it - you can vote for whatever you like and the answer is no. That is not democracy. I do not want another referendum. I do not support independence. But I am a democrat and the arguments against the giant leap into the unknown which would be independence need to be argued out, not blocked and refused.
1/ In what may be a bizarre case of mistaken identity, the Russian FSB has killed a group of Russian people it claims are pro-Ukrainian saboteurs – but who reportedly appear to be Airsoft enthusiasts who were engaged in live-action roleplay of the S.T.A.L.K.E.R. video games. ⬇️
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1596066963608178688
Or is that all you've got?
The long march back down the A1 might reduce the number of Harold Redux's soldiers, though.
https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1596055806109052928
Isn't there a precedent? The last but three (? - I lose count) Tory administration/PM combination tried to do something illegal under the devolution rules, the SG sued in the courts, and HMG just didn't reply to the case till it had changed the law to remove the problem (as it saw it).
Currency discussions kept out of SG and within SNP - Carlotta and the rest of the Yoons furious ...
Yes of course there are limits - Scotland can't vote for war with France or to abolish all taxation. But self-determination? Democracy is nothing if it isn't the act of self-determination.
And this isn't even just a Scottish issue. We have been told very bluntly that however we vote in the Scottish parliament we can and will be ignored. England can't even do that - no parliament at all. We need to fix this jumbled mess that is the supposedly United Kingdom.
Perhaps you can guess how interested that is.
The stuff about Westminster is merely a restatement of an international fact; that sovereignty resides where sovereignty resides, namely in the supreme democratic process of an internationally recognised state called the UK. Gosh.
Secondly, if you look at election results only we may have referendums for ever. You have to look at the weight of opinion about the answer, not the question. There is no evidence that the settled will of the Scottish people is to change. When there is there should be, and will be, a referendum.
Lab 44% -3
Con 24% +3
Lib Dem 10% nc
Reform 5% -1
(Change since 18 Nov; via press release)
Or once again, a Nat playing the player, not the ball?