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The exodus of CON MPs continues – politicalbetting.com
The exodus of CON MPs continues – politicalbetting.com
It's not just the sinking ship analogy which matters. It's the fact that they are losing precisely the cohort and generation they need even to have a chance of renewing themselves in opposition.
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It will be good riddance for some of them.
When you visit that site you can see why Tory MPs are looking at their career options. The Tory vote percentage locally is supposed to drop from 48% in to at best 30% with Labour getting 57%.
A perfectly sound judgement on international law
Scotland doesn't 'have' its own parliament. It has one lent to it temporarily by Westminster. Quite different.
https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1595357498575392770
SNP MSP: Ruling that Scotland is neither a colony nor an oppressed nation proves it is.
*Sigh*
https://twitter.com/alexmassie/status/1595359182148042753
Just to be clear, no blathering is allowed about having to persuade the creatures you elect in Westminster that we should have another indyref.
(a) majority of the vote for parties which want a referendum
(b) majority of MSPs ditto
(c) majority of MPs ditto.
If I am being cynical I expect Sturgeon is delighted as she can now blame Westminster for all Scots issues while never having to face losing her life's work
I expect her to seek a future away from the SNP in the coming years
As far as conservative mps seeking to move on post GE24, I would do the same if I was in their position as I cannot see beyond a lot of lost conservative seats and to be honest some leaving will actually be a cause for celebration
https://twitter.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1594057925936521219?s=20&t=aR5v-8zwWHLncdvLfcvdng
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=28&LAB=45&LIB=9&Reform=3&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=14.2&SCOTLAB=30.5&SCOTLIB=6.5&SCOTReform=0&SCOTGreen=0.8&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=45&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019base
We spent £11,400 on the panels (they were expensive at the time), but we’ve received double that back in direct payments into our bank account since then, producing 40,000 KWh of electricity in the process.
We were very lucky, but what of those less fortunate? They were rewarded with having to pay the Green Levy for the next decade. Not an inconsiderable sum. To make matters worse, they’ve also been inconvenienced and irritated by a bunch of loons called Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil.
These activists, generally poshos and teenagers, not content with having to teach people their facts – they’d clearly not seen a newspaper or TV channel for a couple of decades – they’ve had to teach them a lesson. They’ve had to climb gantries, and force these people to keep car their engines idling for hours on end, all seemingly to enrich the local petrol stations.
Are the fools grateful? No, but you can’t expect gratitude from people who aren’t as clever as the cognesente who understand these things. They’re special people, don’t you know? Even worse are the morons who support them in a kind of reflected glory.
They even think they represent the silent majority when they fit neither of those descriptions.
Without independence support fizzling out, which I'm going out on a limb will not be the reaction to this judgement, there will be a huge desire for action but no obvious outlet for that action, that is concerning as it makes things unpredictable.
Now it is the popular will for another referendum, after major breaches of promise by the Unionists (Federation, EU membership, etc.). Different situation, different time, different referendum.
The Scottish National Party’s additional arguments: self-determination and the principle of legality
84. In addition to adopting the submissions made by Lord Advocate in support of the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament in relation to the proposed Bill, the intervener, the Scottish National Party, makes further submissions founded on the right to self-determination in international law and the principle of legality in domestic law.....There are insuperable obstacles in the path of the intervener’s argument based on self-determination......A state whose government represents the whole of the people or peoples resident within its territory, on a basis of
equality and without discrimination, and respects the principles of self-determination in its internal arrangements, is entitled to maintain its territorial integrity under international law and to have that territorial integrity
recognized by other states. Quebec does not meet the threshold of a colonial people or an oppressed people, nor can it be suggested that Quebecers have been denied meaningful access to government to pursue their political, economic, cultural and social development. In the circumstances, the National Assembly, the legislature or the government of Quebec do not enjoy a right at international
law to effect the secession of Quebec from Canada unilaterally.”
89. In our view these observations apply with equal force to the position of
Scotland and the people of Scotland within the United Kingdom.
'On September 7th the BBC broadcast a speech by Mr Brown in which the Labour MP pledged Home Rule if Scotland voted No in the independence referendum.
A day later, Better Together leader Alistair Darling confirmed in a BBC interview that Devo Max would be offered to Scotland if voters rejected independence. Devo Max is accepted to mean the devolution of all powers, with the exception of Foreign Affairs and Defence.
Days after Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling made their pledge, the three leaders of Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems signed a vow promising to honour the pledge and grant Scotland significant new powers.'
What have you been reading, Our Island Story!?
There were only ever two referenda for devolution (one lost, one won) and one independence referendum).
The younger MPs getting out as the header says is, I think, potentially significant if it becomes a trend.
If you've forgotten:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lzot3DNeU4
https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1595360040243847168
Try again?
The number of recognised countries in the modern era, absent those periods of excitement, tends to be slow to increase.
1. You persuade 45% of the electors of Scotland to vote for your party, which would deliver you 90% of parliamentary Scottish seats. That means that you get a wholly disproportionate and unrepresentative 8% or so of seats in the UK parliament, on the back of only 4% of the UK wide vote. Maybe even 40% of Scottish electors would be enough to do the trick.
2. You then use that 8% of the UK parliamentary seats to basically make government of the UK impossible, and bring down any government which tries to govern effectively, unless you're given another referendum. That can't be tried at the moment in the face of a Conservative majority, but you may get the chance if Labour and the LDs between them don't get a majority of seats.
The flaw in that strategy is that you'll be campaigning in Scotland on the basis that you want a return to the parliamentary paralysis that we saw under Theresa May, and trusting that Scots share your priority that the constitutional issue trumps all, as opposed to the election of a stable and effective UK government. I don't think it will. And after 14 years of Conservative government, you'll be doing your damnedest to bring down a government of an alternative colour. I don't think that'll go down well with former Labour voters who switched to the SNP in 2015.
3. So there is a third part. In order to get the vote of at least 40% of Scottish electors, make sure you keep your true intentions hidden from them as long as you can. Although, if you do have to follow through and bring down a Labour-led government, I think the game will be up for you at the following 2025 GE.
I learned very long ago to check the small print and legal stuff.
Cat Neilan
@CatNeilan
Rishi Sunak is said to be on #pmqs damage limitation mode after the weekend's story about a Swiss-style deal put the cat among the pigeons.
Widely seen as having come from Jeremy Hunt, who is now under pressure to keep his job...
https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1595119186308902913
Such larks.
And another bit of our "unwritten constitution" just got written today.
But it is irrelevant if it is not in the document.
Personally I switched to supporting an IndyRef2 (though I would hope they would say No again) when May went for a GE in 2017 in the middle of supposedly critical times to sort out Brexit. If they could disrupt things with an election it didn't seem unreasonable that a referendum could happen as well.
'Serious questions for both sides. For those who are pro independence- what next? The general election idea won’t yield any immediate change. What is the path? And for unionists, what is the answer to the question, the mechanism for how Scotland is supposed to express its will?'
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1595359227345879041?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1595365249049296896|twgr^5f1aba5c45ee6cd2412300011adede86a052a970|twcon^s2_&ref_url=https://www.thenational.scot/news/23143497.live-updates-supreme-court-blocks-scottish-independence-referendum/
As it happens it won't come to that because as soon as polling shows that such a vote might clearly be one negotiations would start.
It's not going anywhere because although the SNP have enough votes to keep winning majorities at Holyrood the dial hasn't shifted.
It’s why Right of Conquest is no longer considered lawful.
Standard grade history was very good at explaining just how important Scotland was for colonising the Empire - whether it was the slave trade or Scots regiments putting down the locals.