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We’ve got another month of this in Georgia – politicalbetting.com

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  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited November 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    Could someone explain the Alaska senate situation? From glancing at the numbers it seems certain that a Republican will win. Is this right? If so I don't understand why another seat isn't being added to the GOP total.

    It’s because there is a runoff with ranked choice (AV) voting which could theoretically be won by one of the independents
    Right but wiki is showing 75% reported and the two Republicans on 44.4% and 42.7% respectively so at this point it seems mathematically impossible for a non-Republican to win.
    The runoff is the top 4 candidates and run under AV - it’s not like Georgia. Of course the GOP will win but it’s not confirmed yet.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,604
    Betfair punters have suddenly realised that 50 seats is more likely than 49.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676748
  • Andy_JS said:

    Could someone explain the Alaska senate situation? From glancing at the numbers it seems certain that a Republican will win. Is this right? If so I don't understand why another seat isn't being added to the GOP total.

    It’s because there is a runoff with ranked choice (AV) voting which could theoretically be won by one of the independents
    Right but wiki is showing 75% reported and the two Republicans on 44.4% and 42.7% respectively so at this point it seems mathematically impossible for a non-Republican to win.
    The runoff is the top 4 candidates and run under AV - it’s not like Georgia. Of course the GOP will win but it’s not confirmed yet.
    Ah, sorry, so they're going to vote again, ie it's a runoff *and* an instant runoff?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    "Michigan voters approved a new amendment to the state constitution that will add several voting and election policies, CNN projects.

    It will now require nine days of in-person early voting and state-funded absentee drop boxes. It will also form canvass boards to certify results based only on the official records of votes cast and provide that only election officials could conduct post-election audits, among other changes."

    https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-results-congress-senate-house-11-09-2022/index.html
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited November 2022
    Dem leads just increased in AZ. Now:

    Kelly +95k
    Hobbs +13k
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    MikeL said:

    Dem leads just increased in AZ. Now:

    Kelly +95k
    Hobbs +13k

    And Cortez Masto is closing in Nevada.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    There are 600,000 votes still to count in AZ.

    NB. Not a typo! SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited November 2022
    Clark County:

    - 83,000 mail in ballots still to be counted
    - Plus any mail in ballots received after election day up until Saturday (must be postmarked by election day)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,234
    Russia's retreat in Kherson is a disaster for the Ukrainians:


  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    CNN estimate:

    Total of 160,000 votes still to count in NV.

    ie Clark as per previous post + other counties (mainly Washoe)
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    MikeL said:

    Clark County:

    - 83,000 mail in ballots still to be counted
    - Plus any mail in ballots received after election day up until Saturday (must be postmarked by election day)

    CNN radio saying Cortez gained 5k from the last 13k counted there. I think she wins.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,710
    edited November 2022

    MikeL said:

    Clark County:

    - 83,000 mail in ballots still to be counted
    - Plus any mail in ballots received after election day up until Saturday (must be postmarked by election day)

    CNN radio saying Cortez gained 5k from the last 13k counted there. I think she wins.
    I think it was actually D 13k, R 8k for a D net gain of 5k (approx 65%, 30%).

    But either way my outstanding numbers are outstanding as of this minute - ie that batch was already in the counted numbers.
  • New thread.
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