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The midterm early voting data gives a dash of hope to the Democrats – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 15 in General
imageThe midterm early voting data gives a dash of hope to the Democrats – politicalbetting.com

The charts from NBC show the early voting data from three states that could be crucial in the mid-term election on Tuesday.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    First
  • Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.
  • Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.

    Boris would have made the members vote.
    Boris would have won the members vote
    We would have more to worry about that Leaky Sue.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    Focus group...

    Do you have any actual polls ?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11383981/Listen-woke-BBC-youd-think-voters-want-borders-flung-open-writes-MATT-GOODWIN.html

    3 Nov

    "New polling by my firm People Polling shows that 60 per cent of people think the Government has lost control of Britain’s borders. And that the vast majority of Brits also reject the idea that those arriving on small boats should be allowed to stay.

    ...

    In our poll, more than 60 per cent said they want Albanians who arrive across the Channel to be put on a plane and returned home directly."

    No link to actual poll and the guy is clearly not going to win awards for freedom from bias but it is a BPC polling co.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Just bizarre that anyone could seriously think Walker should be a senator.

    https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1588381041517277184
    MARIST midnight polls

    PENNSYLVANIA
    🔵John Fetterman 51%
    🔴Mehmet Oz 45%

    ARIZONA
    🔵Mark Kelly 50%
    🔴Blake Masters 47%

    GEORGIA
    🔵Raphael Warnock 48%
    🔴Hershel Walker 48%
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.

    Boris would have made the members vote.
    Boris would have won the members vote
    We would have more to worry about that Leaky Sue.
    What does Brady mean by disclosing this? Is he for instance warning a Cruella for PM crowd of the danger of sending him Rishi letters?
  • Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.

    Boris would have made the members vote.
    Boris would have won the members vote
    We would have more to worry about that Leaky Sue.
    Boris would have lost the members vote which is why he pulled out. That would have been utterly humiliating.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,228

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    Won't happen.
    The power station, or the cancellation of it?

    If it’s to be cancelled, then at least announcing what will replace it at the same time, might be seen as good politics at a time of record high energy bills!
    Cancellation. Just the Treasury chestbeating.

    There are leaks to the media day-by-day at the moment as they look at all potential tax and spending options.

    Everything will need to be "reviewed" as part of a top to bottom exercise but this won't go anywhere. Sunak and Macron shook hands on it only 7 days ago.
    Oh, I completely agree that there needs to be a zero-based spending review over the winter, with absolutely everything on the table - but it needs to be done in a coherent manner, finishing with a single announcement before the start of the financial year.

    Dripping negative spending stories out one at a time, won’t do much for the government’s popularity. Do it all at once, to avoid every single-issue pressure group having their own day in the sun.
    It will also damage investment.

    Sizewell C relies on private sector investment and the government had already made the commitment.

    This raises huge questions about the UK's reliability and consistency.
    The real question is what the government will replace it with, we still have a huge energy deficit in 10 years time, cancelling Sizewell C may be a good decision because the EPR is clearly not good enough, bit we still need reliable energy to replace the existing nuclear reactors that will be decommissioned by then. I'd like to see a firm commitment to the modular reactors from RR and wind+storage. By firm commitment, I mean £8-10bn in state investment and another £20-30bn from the private sector. Cutting spending on future energy generation seems like an incredibly poor idea.
    Successive governments back to Blair/Brown have shat on new nuclear with their prevaricating bullshit for over 20 years. This is why.

    Sizewell C is ready to go and can build directly on the lessons learned from Hinkley Point C - it is a carbon copy.

    There are 27 years left to achieve Net Zero and this plant decarbonises 7% of the grid.

    It'd be utter insanity to cancel it.
    The issue I have with sizewell C is that it's using a dead end technology like EPR which has yet to be proven to work reliably. Taishan is continuously closed for repairs, Flammanvile still hasn't opened and Olkiluoto still seems delayed indefinitely because of cracks in the reactor vessel. The issue I've got with Sizewell C isn't because it's nuclear, it's because it's EPR and that technology just doesn't seem like it works. For HPC we have EDF on the hook for all of the delays and eventual failure if they can't open it. Sizewell put the taxpayer on the hook for a reactor design that just seems flawed. We're much better off with the RR design (and RR shares are up today on the news of Sizewell C being cancelled) and investing in Moltex, First light fusion and a small next gen fusion reactor project rather than the white elephant that ITER is turning into.
    Hold on why aren't we just doing a cfd deal for Sizewell C ?
    Doing it as a RAB model allows private funding to buy in and lowers the WACC (a big part of HPC cost) and thus the cost to the taxpayer/consumer.

    I know a lot about this project as am involved with it so feel free to DM for more.
    But that assumes no construction cost increases and delays. Every single EPR has been late and over budget, I don't understand why anyone thinks it won't be exactly the same for Sizewell C.
    It's replicated (design and supply chain) so can avoid a lot of the first time integration issues that Hinkley Point C experienced.
    But the issue isn't first time integration, it's a flawed reactor design that needs refinement. Every single EPR has suffered from the same issues, cracks in the main reactor vessel and in China radioactive gas releases. The design needs fixing, with HPC the taxpayer isn't on the hook for their broken reactor design, with Sizewell C we are. EDF and Areva have struggled to get any of the EPRs working and if the Chinese reactor was in Europe it would never have been commissioned, it's only because of lower safety standards that it was allowed to power up.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,228
    Nigelb said:

    Just bizarre that anyone could seriously think Walker should be a senator.

    https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1588381041517277184
    MARIST midnight polls

    PENNSYLVANIA
    🔵John Fetterman 51%
    🔴Mehmet Oz 45%

    ARIZONA
    🔵Mark Kelly 50%
    🔴Blake Masters 47%

    GEORGIA
    🔵Raphael Warnock 48%
    🔴Hershel Walker 48%

    Or Mehmet Oz.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,286

    Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.

    Boris would have made the members vote.
    Boris would have won the members vote
    We would have more to worry about that Leaky Sue.
    Boris would have lost the members vote which is why he pulled out. That would have been utterly humiliating.
    Or, worse, he would have been beaten by 200 votes in the MPs' indicative vote and been forced to pull out.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 534
    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    Won't happen.
    The power station, or the cancellation of it?

    If it’s to be cancelled, then at least announcing what will replace it at the same time, might be seen as good politics at a time of record high energy bills!
    Cancellation. Just the Treasury chestbeating.

    There are leaks to the media day-by-day at the moment as they look at all potential tax and spending options.

    Everything will need to be "reviewed" as part of a top to bottom exercise but this won't go anywhere. Sunak and Macron shook hands on it only 7 days ago.
    Oh, I completely agree that there needs to be a zero-based spending review over the winter, with absolutely everything on the table - but it needs to be done in a coherent manner, finishing with a single announcement before the start of the financial year.

    Dripping negative spending stories out one at a time, won’t do much for the government’s popularity. Do it all at once, to avoid every single-issue pressure group having their own day in the sun.
    It will also damage investment.

    Sizewell C relies on private sector investment and the government had already made the commitment.

    This raises huge questions about the UK's reliability and consistency.
    The real question is what the government will replace it with, we still have a huge energy deficit in 10 years time, cancelling Sizewell C may be a good decision because the EPR is clearly not good enough, bit we still need reliable energy to replace the existing nuclear reactors that will be decommissioned by then. I'd like to see a firm commitment to the modular reactors from RR and wind+storage. By firm commitment, I mean £8-10bn in state investment and another £20-30bn from the private sector. Cutting spending on future energy generation seems like an incredibly poor idea.
    Successive governments back to Blair/Brown have shat on new nuclear with their prevaricating bullshit for over 20 years. This is why.

    Sizewell C is ready to go and can build directly on the lessons learned from Hinkley Point C - it is a carbon copy.

    There are 27 years left to achieve Net Zero and this plant decarbonises 7% of the grid.

    It'd be utter insanity to cancel it.
    The issue I have with sizewell C is that it's using a dead end technology like EPR which has yet to be proven to work reliably. Taishan is continuously closed for repairs, Flammanvile still hasn't opened and Olkiluoto still seems delayed indefinitely because of cracks in the reactor vessel. The issue I've got with Sizewell C isn't because it's nuclear, it's because it's EPR and that technology just doesn't seem like it works. For HPC we have EDF on the hook for all of the delays and eventual failure if they can't open it. Sizewell put the taxpayer on the hook for a reactor design that just seems flawed. We're much better off with the RR design (and RR shares are up today on the news of Sizewell C being cancelled) and investing in Moltex, First light fusion and a small next gen fusion reactor project rather than the white elephant that ITER is turning into.
    Hold on why aren't we just doing a cfd deal for Sizewell C ?
    Doing it as a RAB model allows private funding to buy in and lowers the WACC (a big part of HPC cost) and thus the cost to the taxpayer/consumer.

    I know a lot about this project as am involved with it so feel free to DM for more.
    But that assumes no construction cost increases and delays. Every single EPR has been late and over budget, I don't understand why anyone thinks it won't be exactly the same for Sizewell C.
    It's replicated (design and supply chain) so can avoid a lot of the first time integration issues that Hinkley Point C experienced.
    But the issue isn't first time integration, it's a flawed reactor design that needs refinement. Every single EPR has suffered from the same issues, cracks in the main reactor vessel and in China radioactive gas releases. The design needs fixing, with HPC the taxpayer isn't on the hook for their broken reactor design, with Sizewell C we are. EDF and Areva have struggled to get any of the EPRs working and if the Chinese reactor was in Europe it would never have been commissioned, it's only because of lower safety standards that it was allowed to power up.
    First time integration is only the principle issue if what comes out of it is a sound design that can be replicated, working.

    Replicating a dodgy design just replicates the flaws.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,228

    Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.

    Boris would have made the members vote.
    Boris would have won the members vote
    We would have more to worry about that Leaky Sue.
    Boris would have lost the members vote which is why he pulled out. That would have been utterly humiliating.
    Wishful thinking. I was at a members event last weekend and it was chock full of older members lamenting they didn't get a chance to put Boris back in. No amount of calling them out of touch with reality gets through to them, they are impervious to real life. Everything is some kind of conspiracy to prevent "those of us who worked hard all our lives" from "having our say", some of the more delusional ones seemed to think that Rishi conspire with Labour to strip them of their votes. Honestly, the Tory party membership is a complete mess. The Mail has completely addled their brains.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,228

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    Won't happen.
    The power station, or the cancellation of it?

    If it’s to be cancelled, then at least announcing what will replace it at the same time, might be seen as good politics at a time of record high energy bills!
    Cancellation. Just the Treasury chestbeating.

    There are leaks to the media day-by-day at the moment as they look at all potential tax and spending options.

    Everything will need to be "reviewed" as part of a top to bottom exercise but this won't go anywhere. Sunak and Macron shook hands on it only 7 days ago.
    Oh, I completely agree that there needs to be a zero-based spending review over the winter, with absolutely everything on the table - but it needs to be done in a coherent manner, finishing with a single announcement before the start of the financial year.

    Dripping negative spending stories out one at a time, won’t do much for the government’s popularity. Do it all at once, to avoid every single-issue pressure group having their own day in the sun.
    It will also damage investment.

    Sizewell C relies on private sector investment and the government had already made the commitment.

    This raises huge questions about the UK's reliability and consistency.
    The real question is what the government will replace it with, we still have a huge energy deficit in 10 years time, cancelling Sizewell C may be a good decision because the EPR is clearly not good enough, bit we still need reliable energy to replace the existing nuclear reactors that will be decommissioned by then. I'd like to see a firm commitment to the modular reactors from RR and wind+storage. By firm commitment, I mean £8-10bn in state investment and another £20-30bn from the private sector. Cutting spending on future energy generation seems like an incredibly poor idea.
    Successive governments back to Blair/Brown have shat on new nuclear with their prevaricating bullshit for over 20 years. This is why.

    Sizewell C is ready to go and can build directly on the lessons learned from Hinkley Point C - it is a carbon copy.

    There are 27 years left to achieve Net Zero and this plant decarbonises 7% of the grid.

    It'd be utter insanity to cancel it.
    The issue I have with sizewell C is that it's using a dead end technology like EPR which has yet to be proven to work reliably. Taishan is continuously closed for repairs, Flammanvile still hasn't opened and Olkiluoto still seems delayed indefinitely because of cracks in the reactor vessel. The issue I've got with Sizewell C isn't because it's nuclear, it's because it's EPR and that technology just doesn't seem like it works. For HPC we have EDF on the hook for all of the delays and eventual failure if they can't open it. Sizewell put the taxpayer on the hook for a reactor design that just seems flawed. We're much better off with the RR design (and RR shares are up today on the news of Sizewell C being cancelled) and investing in Moltex, First light fusion and a small next gen fusion reactor project rather than the white elephant that ITER is turning into.
    Hold on why aren't we just doing a cfd deal for Sizewell C ?
    Doing it as a RAB model allows private funding to buy in and lowers the WACC (a big part of HPC cost) and thus the cost to the taxpayer/consumer.

    I know a lot about this project as am involved with it so feel free to DM for more.
    But that assumes no construction cost increases and delays. Every single EPR has been late and over budget, I don't understand why anyone thinks it won't be exactly the same for Sizewell C.
    It's replicated (design and supply chain) so can avoid a lot of the first time integration issues that Hinkley Point C experienced.
    But the issue isn't first time integration, it's a flawed reactor design that needs refinement. Every single EPR has suffered from the same issues, cracks in the main reactor vessel and in China radioactive gas releases. The design needs fixing, with HPC the taxpayer isn't on the hook for their broken reactor design, with Sizewell C we are. EDF and Areva have struggled to get any of the EPRs working and if the Chinese reactor was in Europe it would never have been commissioned, it's only because of lower safety standards that it was allowed to power up.
    First time integration is only the principle issue if what comes out of it is a sound design that can be replicated, working.

    Replicating a dodgy design just replicates the flaws.
    Indeed, I just hope in 2026 we don't have the same pauses in construction that the Finnish and French reactors have needed. I don't hold out a lot of hope as they don't seem to have figured it out yet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just bizarre that anyone could seriously think Walker should be a senator.

    https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1588381041517277184
    MARIST midnight polls

    PENNSYLVANIA
    🔵John Fetterman 51%
    🔴Mehmet Oz 45%

    ARIZONA
    🔵Mark Kelly 50%
    🔴Blake Masters 47%

    GEORGIA
    🔵Raphael Warnock 48%
    🔴Hershel Walker 48%

    Or Mehmet Oz.
    A real prince.

    Dr. Oz asked his Columbia research supervisor to deny that his studies killed 329 dogs and tortured scores of animals. The chief of cardiac surgery said no to the "political favor."
    https://twitter.com/LEBassett/status/1587467983462580224

    I like this update.
    https://twitter.com/LEBassett/status/1587535821988679687
    Dr. Charles Stolar, the pediatric surgeon at Columbia who corroborated Rose’s claims in the Post, just told Jezebel's
    @kylietcheung in a phone interview that Oz is “full of shit” and “a total phony.” We've updated the piece.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374
    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,374
    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Twitter sucks people in and ultimately destroys them. Musk is just the most spectacular symptom of this.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824

    Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.

    Boris would have made the members vote.
    Boris would have won the members vote
    We would have more to worry about that Leaky Sue.
    Boris would have lost the members vote which is why he pulled out. That would have been utterly humiliating.
    He would have lost the members vote, and it would have been humiliating, but that wasn’t why he pulled out.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,485
    I'm not sure how useful the above information is without voter registration splits by party. It is also worth noting that the Dems had a big early voting lead in 2020 too.

    With those caveats, I would suggest that the Dems in Pennsylvania should feel pretty confident (especially given there have been over a million early votes cast). While those in Arizona and Wisconsin should feel a little more nervous.

    One quick thought: the early voting numbers for AZ are pretty enormous. There are only 5.5 million adults in AZ, and not all of those will be citizens. In 2018, the winning midterm Senatorial candidate got 1.191m votes.

    So... there have been more votes cast in 2022 already than the winning candidate in AZ got in 2018. And they've skewed more Dem than you would expect. But not massively so.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,758
    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625
    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Just bizarre that anyone could seriously think Walker should be a senator.

    https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1588381041517277184
    MARIST midnight polls

    PENNSYLVANIA
    🔵John Fetterman 51%
    🔴Mehmet Oz 45%

    ARIZONA
    🔵Mark Kelly 50%
    🔴Blake Masters 47%

    GEORGIA
    🔵Raphael Warnock 48%
    🔴Hershel Walker 48%

    Or Mehmet Oz.
    Or Blake Masters.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,718

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.

    Boris would have made the members vote.
    Boris would have won the members vote
    We would have more to worry about that Leaky Sue.
    Boris would have lost the members vote which is why he pulled out. That would have been utterly humiliating.
    Wishful thinking. I was at a members event last weekend and it was chock full of older members lamenting they didn't get a chance to put Boris back in. No amount of calling them out of touch with reality gets through to them, they are impervious to real life. Everything is some kind of conspiracy to prevent "those of us who worked hard all our lives" from "having our say", some of the more delusional ones seemed to think that Rishi conspire with Labour to strip them of their votes. Honestly, the Tory party membership is a complete mess. The Mail has completely addled their brains.
    Look at our very own @Casino_Royale here who, with an 80-seat majority in the HoC, nevertheless blames "the LIberati" for frustrating ordinary decent peoples' plans to torpedo boats in the channel bringing Albanians over here to wash our cars.
    That is pretty much what ODP really do want. Can't buck the polling.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
    The Republic of China is an island. I don't get the question.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    The Nevada early voting data is not good for the Dems and getting worse as they get closer to election.

    This could be the year, finally, where the Dems don't win despite bad polling.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    edited November 4
    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    The quality of GOP senate candidates is so bad that Blake Masters is kin of flying under the radar.

    In normal political times he would be the standout WTF candidate. In these fascism supporting election denying times he's barely even a blip on the radar.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
    The Republic of China is an island. I don't get the question.
    Well, some people are arguing that GayNATO is in a conspiracy to destroy all other civilised life on the planet.

    I am going for the *maximal* version of the Ukraine war.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824
    Leon said:

    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite

    Yet you’ve been telling us all her victory is nailed on, from the beginning.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    DougSeal said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Twitter sucks people in and ultimately destroys them. Musk is just the most spectacular symptom of this.
    That's a bit harsh.
    Twitter is a great general source of specialist news, providing you use it for that. I'd be very sorry to see that destroyed, as it wouldn't be easy to replicate.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    edited November 4
    Leon said:

    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite

    She's 2 points clear in the 538 pollnig average. Barring two 11 point lead polls the polls are very consistent at a 1-3 point lead for Lake.

    So betting against her is betting on herding polling error in favour of the Democrats.

    I am not tempted but 5/1 is definitely in the zone of temptation for betting on Hobbs here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    "This perspective". LOL.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite

    Yet you’ve been telling us all her victory is nailed on, from the beginning.
    No, I said - even before the republican primary - and way before anyone else on here - that she was a potential star, and had rare and raw political talent. Whatever you thought of her contentious politics. The big hurdle was always going to be the governor race itself - if she got there. A tall order

    There’s no doubt now that she is the real deal in political talent. Lots of republicans are fawning over her and calling her “the first GOP female prez”

    But if she loses next week (which she can easily do) that’s a major setback. Perhaps her career will be snuffed out early
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,718
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.

    Boris would have made the members vote.
    Boris would have won the members vote
    We would have more to worry about that Leaky Sue.
    Boris would have lost the members vote which is why he pulled out. That would have been utterly humiliating.
    Wishful thinking. I was at a members event last weekend and it was chock full of older members lamenting they didn't get a chance to put Boris back in. No amount of calling them out of touch with reality gets through to them, they are impervious to real life. Everything is some kind of conspiracy to prevent "those of us who worked hard all our lives" from "having our say", some of the more delusional ones seemed to think that Rishi conspire with Labour to strip them of their votes. Honestly, the Tory party membership is a complete mess. The Mail has completely addled their brains.
    Look at our very own @Casino_Royale here who, with an 80-seat majority in the HoC, nevertheless blames "the LIberati" for frustrating ordinary decent peoples' plans to torpedo boats in the channel bringing Albanians over here to wash our cars.
    That is pretty much what ODP really do want. Can't buck the polling.
    Thank goodness there is no government prepared to do it. Whatever the rhetoric.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 36,718
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    Who? I have not been on PB as much recently.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    edited November 4
    Kari Lake has made several gaffes over the last few days . Her comments on Obamacare won’t have helped her and she made jokes about the attack on Paul Pelosi.

    A much vaunted poll last week showing her 11 points ahead now has her only 3 points up . The latest Marist actually has Hobbs up by one point.

    She’s still the favourite but Biden’s speech highlighting the threat to democracy will resonate more in Arizona where Lake will only accept the results if she wins .
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,566
    edited November 4

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    "four times closer" is enough for the banhammer, imo. "1/4 as far" FFS, or US four times further.

    (I may be alone in this bugging me - I was probably twice less anal when I was three times less old.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite

    She's 2 points clear in the 538 pollnig average. Barring two 11 point lead polls the polls are very consistent at a 1-3 point lead for Lake.

    So betting against her is betting on herding polling error in favour of the Democrats.

    I am not tempted but 5/1 is definitely in the zone of temptation for betting on Hobbs here.
    Too close to the result for trading bets, so I'm not interested (FWTW).

    Though Hobbs definitely has some sort of chance.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
    Ural the same.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    Who? I have not been on PB as much recently.
    We seem to be getting them moderately frequently.

    @rcs1000 bans them after a bit.

    I've repeatedly asked to keep one as a pet - promised to take it for walks, feed it etc. But the mods say no....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite

    Yet you’ve been telling us all her victory is nailed on, from the beginning.
    No, I said - even before the republican primary - and way before anyone else on here - that she was a potential star, and had rare and raw political talent. Whatever you thought of her contentious politics. The big hurdle was always going to be the governor race itself - if she got there. A tall order

    There’s no doubt now that she is the real deal in political talent...
    She's certainly an accomplished huckster.
    That's not quite the same thing, though.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,566
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    Who? I have not been on PB as much recently.
    The OP, allegedly.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,758
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    I like to think PB is seen as an elite training ground, a sort of Turing test where the ultimate accolade is to pass off convincingly as British. They're getting closer, just a few tweaks needed. I can't believe PB would actually be seen as a valuable target in its own right.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    Alistair said:

    The Nevada early voting data is not good for the Dems and getting worse as they get closer to election.

    This could be the year, finally, where the Dems don't win despite bad polling.

    I think they need a miracle in Nevada . Although they’ve won many state and federal races there its always been close and it’s not really a blue state , more purple .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    I like to think PB is seen as an elite training ground, a sort of Turing test where the ultimate accolade is to pass off convincingly as British. They're getting closer, just a few tweaks needed. I can't believe PB would actually be seen as a valuable target in its own right.
    A chunk of the British political class read PB. Whether this a is a good or bad thing....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,149
    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    "four times closer" is enough for the banhammer, imo. "1/4 as far" FFS, or US four times further.

    (I may be alone in this bugging me - I was probably twice less anal when I was three times less old.)
    Oh, I'm just the same - as I grow older I realise the innumerable ways in which style, grammar, and idiom can go wrong, the more people I collaborate with (the learning being in both directions, I hasten to add).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    Who? I have not been on PB as much recently.
    We seem to be getting them moderately frequently.

    @rcs1000 bans them after a bit.

    I've repeatedly asked to keep one as a pet - promised to take it for walks, feed it etc. But the mods say no....
    TBF, if this one is a troll (and my instinctive reaction to his/her first posts was, 'Dynamo's back') it's the least troll-like one I've ever come across. Plenty of the posts are entirely lucid and you can have an enlightening conversation about almost any subject.

    If it's a real troll, it's a class act and deserves promotion.

    But I'm gradually inclining to the view that it's a real poster with a bit of a different perspective on Ukraine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    I like to think PB is seen as an elite training ground, a sort of Turing test where the ultimate accolade is to pass off convincingly as British. They're getting closer, just a few tweaks needed. I can't believe PB would actually be seen as a valuable target in its own right.
    A chunk of the British political class read PB. Whether this a is a good or bad thing....
    Frankly, after recent calamities I'm just mildly encouraged to find our politicians can read.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,149
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    I like to think PB is seen as an elite training ground, a sort of Turing test where the ultimate accolade is to pass off convincingly as British. They're getting closer, just a few tweaks needed. I can't believe PB would actually be seen as a valuable target in its own right.
    A chunk of the British political class read PB. Whether this a is a good or bad thing....
    Frankly, after recent calamities I'm just mildly encouraged to find our politicians can read.
    It's the critical assessment of likely sources, and of the considered logical argument based on the data, that does it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    I like to think PB is seen as an elite training ground, a sort of Turing test where the ultimate accolade is to pass off convincingly as British. They're getting closer, just a few tweaks needed. I can't believe PB would actually be seen as a valuable target in its own right.
    A chunk of the British political class read PB. Whether this a is a good or bad thing....
    Frankly, after recent calamities I'm just mildly encouraged to find our politicians can read.
    I think you and I may have different definitions of "read" - say the gap between Biff & Chip pre reading and Joseph Conrad.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625
    ...

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
    The Republic of China is an island. I don't get the question.
    Well, some people are arguing that GayNATO is in a conspiracy to destroy all other civilised life on the planet.

    I am going for the *maximal* version of the Ukraine war.
    Well it should surely be called GAYTO, it's catchier.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268

    ...

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
    The Republic of China is an island. I don't get the question.
    Well, some people are arguing that GayNATO is in a conspiracy to destroy all other civilised life on the planet.

    I am going for the *maximal* version of the Ukraine war.
    Well it should surely be called GAYTO, it's catchier.
    Nice. So we have the name. Theme tune?

    Hmm - https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=267950388037456

    Or is that too obvious?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,758
    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    Who? I have not been on PB as much recently.
    We seem to be getting them moderately frequently.

    @rcs1000 bans them after a bit.

    I've repeatedly asked to keep one as a pet - promised to take it for walks, feed it etc. But the mods say no....
    TBF, if this one is a troll (and my instinctive reaction to his/her first posts was, 'Dynamo's back') it's the least troll-like one I've ever come across. Plenty of the posts are entirely lucid and you can have an enlightening conversation about almost any subject.

    If it's a real troll, it's a class act and deserves promotion.

    But I'm gradually inclining to the view that it's a real poster with a bit of a different perspective on Ukraine.
    I know what you mean. The thing that doesn't quite add up though is the very clear lack of emotional or flippant response to anything, all posts are written in quite a detached way. The same measured tone throughout. No glimpses into the personal hinterland. No obscure niche interests or bugbears. All a tiny bit too clean and tidy. But I agree, not 100% clear cut.

    This is the kind of thing that imagine would make it fascinating working for GCHQ. Spotting patterns of speech, winkling out trolls from real people and so on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    I like to think PB is seen as an elite training ground, a sort of Turing test where the ultimate accolade is to pass off convincingly as British. They're getting closer, just a few tweaks needed. I can't believe PB would actually be seen as a valuable target in its own right.
    A chunk of the British political class read PB. Whether this a is a good or bad thing....
    Frankly, after recent calamities I'm just mildly encouraged to find our politicians can read.
    It's the critical assessment of likely sources, and of the considered logical argument based on the data, that does it.
    Well, that would be ideal. But I've been worried basic literacy might be a step too far for them.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,890
    If Elon Musk spontaneously ceased to exist, the human race would be better off by far.

    Comments welcome.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite

    She's 2 points clear in the 538 pollnig average. Barring two 11 point lead polls the polls are very consistent at a 1-3 point lead for Lake.

    So betting against her is betting on herding polling error in favour of the Democrats.

    I am not tempted but 5/1 is definitely in the zone of temptation for betting on Hobbs here.
    Too close to the result for trading bets, so I'm not interested (FWTW).

    Though Hobbs definitely has some sort of chance.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
    This is what I meant by bet AGAINST Lake. Bet on Hobbs

    5/1 seems a little generous in an incredibly tight two horse race

    And Lake has made a few errors recently - the Pelosi thing. Nothing terrible but it is very close

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    Who? I have not been on PB as much recently.
    We seem to be getting them moderately frequently.

    @rcs1000 bans them after a bit.

    I've repeatedly asked to keep one as a pet - promised to take it for walks, feed it etc. But the mods say no....
    TBF, if this one is a troll (and my instinctive reaction to his/her first posts was, 'Dynamo's back') it's the least troll-like one I've ever come across. Plenty of the posts are entirely lucid and you can have an enlightening conversation about almost any subject.

    If it's a real troll, it's a class act and deserves promotion.

    But I'm gradually inclining to the view that it's a real poster with a bit of a different perspective on Ukraine.
    I know what you mean. The thing that doesn't quite add up though is the very clear lack of emotional or flippant response to anything, all posts are written in quite a detached way. The same measured tone throughout. No glimpses into the personal hinterland. No obscure niche interests or bugbears. All a tiny bit too clean and tidy. But I agree, not 100% clear cut.

    This is the kind of thing that imagine would make it fascinating working for GCHQ. Spotting patterns of speech, winkling out trolls from real people and so on.
    Then someone tells you that PB is actually a training ground for troll detectors.

    {Don't tell 'im Pike!}
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    Who? I have not been on PB as much recently.
    We seem to be getting them moderately frequently.

    @rcs1000 bans them after a bit.

    I've repeatedly asked to keep one as a pet - promised to take it for walks, feed it etc. But the mods say no....
    TBF, if this one is a troll (and my instinctive reaction to his/her first posts was, 'Dynamo's back') it's the least troll-like one I've ever come across. Plenty of the posts are entirely lucid and you can have an enlightening conversation about almost any subject.

    If it's a real troll, it's a class act and deserves promotion.

    But I'm gradually inclining to the view that it's a real poster with a bit of a different perspective on Ukraine.
    I know what you mean. The thing that doesn't quite add up though is the very clear lack of emotional or flippant response to anything, all posts are written in quite a detached way. The same measured tone throughout. No glimpses into the personal hinterland. No obscure niche interests or bugbears. All a tiny bit too clean and tidy. But I agree, not 100% clear cut.

    This is the kind of thing that imagine would make it fascinating working for GCHQ. Spotting patterns of speech, winkling out trolls from real people and so on.
    Then someone tells you that PB is actually a training ground for troll detectors.

    {Don't tell 'im Pike!}
    We're troll trainers In Lavender?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625

    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    Who? I have not been on PB as much recently.
    We seem to be getting them moderately frequently.

    @rcs1000 bans them after a bit.

    I've repeatedly asked to keep one as a pet - promised to take it for walks, feed it etc. But the mods say no....
    TBF, if this one is a troll (and my instinctive reaction to his/her first posts was, 'Dynamo's back') it's the least troll-like one I've ever come across. Plenty of the posts are entirely lucid and you can have an enlightening conversation about almost any subject.

    If it's a real troll, it's a class act and deserves promotion.

    But I'm gradually inclining to the view that it's a real poster with a bit of a different perspective on Ukraine.
    I know what you mean. The thing that doesn't quite add up though is the very clear lack of emotional or flippant response to anything, all posts are written in quite a detached way. The same measured tone throughout. No glimpses into the personal hinterland. No obscure niche interests or bugbears. All a tiny bit too clean and tidy. But I agree, not 100% clear cut.

    This is the kind of thing that imagine would make it fascinating working for GCHQ. Spotting patterns of speech, winkling out trolls from real people and so on.
    Then someone tells you that PB is actually a training ground for troll detectors.

    {Don't tell 'im Pike!}
    Given the amount of times the designation is thrown around, I wouldn't be shocked.
  • TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
    Republic of China?

    Previously that comment was China, you really have gone maximal now haven't you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,484
    Chris said:

    If Elon Musk spontaneously ceased to exist, the human race would be better off by far.

    Comments welcome.

    He needs reining in. Even crazy innovators who make things happen by sheer force of will need someone to pull them back from time to time.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite

    She's 2 points clear in the 538 pollnig average. Barring two 11 point lead polls the polls are very consistent at a 1-3 point lead for Lake.

    So betting against her is betting on herding polling error in favour of the Democrats.

    I am not tempted but 5/1 is definitely in the zone of temptation for betting on Hobbs here.
    Too close to the result for trading bets, so I'm not interested (FWTW).

    Though Hobbs definitely has some sort of chance.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
    This is what I meant by bet AGAINST Lake. Bet on Hobbs

    5/1 seems a little generous in an incredibly tight two horse race

    And Lake has made a few errors recently - the Pelosi thing. Nothing terrible but it is very close

    Apply Sod's Law to this. If you bet on Hobbs you're guaranteeing Lake wins 50.01% to 49.99%. You'll talk about your great value loser until your end of days.
  • ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 9,987
    edited November 4
    Chris said:

    If Elon Musk spontaneously ceased to exist, the human race would be better off by far.

    Comments welcome.

    If Twitter spontaneously ceased to exist, the human race would be even better off by far.

    Musk has done some very good things for humanity with his developments with SpaceX and Tesla moving technology forward by step changes. He's done more for the world than Twitter ever has.

    He's also an egotistical prick who is full of himself. Which is kind of Twitters target market.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    .
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite

    She's 2 points clear in the 538 pollnig average. Barring two 11 point lead polls the polls are very consistent at a 1-3 point lead for Lake.

    So betting against her is betting on herding polling error in favour of the Democrats.

    I am not tempted but 5/1 is definitely in the zone of temptation for betting on Hobbs here.
    Too close to the result for trading bets, so I'm not interested (FWTW).

    Though Hobbs definitely has some sort of chance.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
    This is what I meant by bet AGAINST Lake. Bet on Hobbs

    5/1 seems a little generous in an incredibly tight two horse race

    And Lake has made a few errors recently - the Pelosi thing. Nothing terrible but it is very close

    Oh, it's a value bet.
    But I've been caught in one too many value traps, that's all. For less timid people than me, it's worth a punt.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
    Republic of China?

    Previously that comment was China, you really have gone maximal now haven't you?
    No - I am being moderate. Stopping at the ROC and everything.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
  • TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
    Republic of China?

    Previously that comment was China, you really have gone maximal now haven't you?
    No - I am being moderate. Stopping at the ROC and everything.
    Why would you not stop at the ROC?

    Stopping at the PRC is moderate for this war.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 249
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Because although the lessons are clear and obvious, some people make an absolute fortune from ignoring them. And sod the poor employees of [insert name of bought-out company here]
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,149
    edited November 4
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    I like to think PB is seen as an elite training ground, a sort of Turing test where the ultimate accolade is to pass off convincingly as British. They're getting closer, just a few tweaks needed. I can't believe PB would actually be seen as a valuable target in its own right.
    A chunk of the British political class read PB. Whether this a is a good or bad thing....
    Frankly, after recent calamities I'm just mildly encouraged to find our politicians can read.
    It's the critical assessment of likely sources, and of the considered logical argument based on the data, that does it.
    Well, that would be ideal. But I've been worried basic literacy might be a step too far for them.
    ...
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
    It's not paranoia to say some behaviour is beyond the pale.

    Fascists, Putinists, antivax bullshitters, NIMBYs and others in the same league as those pond life. What else should they be called?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Scum just means they rise to the top - it's a compliment. It's when you get called dregs that you have to worry.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Where should the Republic of China/Ukraine border be set?
    Republic of China?

    Previously that comment was China, you really have gone maximal now haven't you?
    No - I am being moderate. Stopping at the ROC and everything.
    Why would you not stop at the ROC?

    Stopping at the PRC is moderate for this war.
    Well, they are on our side. So invading them as well seems a bit OTT.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Car sales are on course for their worst year in the UK since 1982 after the sale of plug-in vehicles stalled amid consumer fears over buying and recharging costs.

    Says the times

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/drivers-fears-over-electric-vehicle-costs-push-car-sales-to-40-year-low-k9wb70rzv
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    Who are we talking about?
    Our current agent of influence.
    Or Russian troll, as unkind souls have it.
    I like to think PB is seen as an elite training ground, a sort of Turing test where the ultimate accolade is to pass off convincingly as British. They're getting closer, just a few tweaks needed. I can't believe PB would actually be seen as a valuable target in its own right.
    A chunk of the British political class read PB. Whether this a is a good or bad thing....
    Frankly, after recent calamities I'm just mildly encouraged to find our politicians can read.
    It's the critical assessment of likely sources, and of the considered logical argument based on the data, that does it.
    Well, that would be ideal. But I've been worried basic literacy might be a step too far for them.
    ...
    Are you being ellipsical, sir?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
    It's not paranoia to say some behaviour is beyond the pale.

    Fascists, Putinists, antivax bullshitters, NIMBYs and others in the same league as those pond life. What else should they be called?
    Can you imagine a Nimby fascist? The kind of person who would be in favour of concentration camps as long as they didn't affect their home price. Have I inadvertently stumbled upon the definition of a Daily Mail reader?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
    It's not paranoia to say some behaviour is beyond the pale.

    Fascists, Putinists, antivax bullshitters, NIMBYs and others in the same league as those pond life. What else should they be called?
    And Gordon Brown who adopted a standard measure of inflation in 1998 because he hates you and wants you and your family and pets to die. Don't forget him.
  • Sorry Mike, two pins that might burst your balloons.

    Here's Joe Ralston - who's pretty spot on when it comes to Nevada's elections - with this take on the NV early voting, with the headline "The Democrats are in trouble"

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2022

    Secondly, Sean Trende - who's also pretty good - pointing out that, ex-states like Nevada, early votes don't count for much.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2022/11/04/what_does_early_voting_tell_us_not_much_148425.html

    Trende'a point about everyone being able to read what they want into what they see so far seems apt

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
    It's not paranoia to say some behaviour is beyond the pale.

    Fascists, Putinists, antivax bullshitters, NIMBYs and others in the same league as those pond life. What else should they be called?
    Can you imagine a Nimby fascist? The kind of person who would be in favour of concentration camps as long as they didn't affect their home price. Have I inadvertently stumbled upon the definition of a Daily Mail reader?
    IIRC When Schindler moved his factory from Poland to Moravia, the locals complained that they didn't want Jews locally.... they weren't upset about the work camp bit. Literal NIMBY Nazis.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
    It's not paranoia to say some behaviour is beyond the pale.

    Fascists, Putinists, antivax bullshitters, NIMBYs and others in the same league as those pond life. What else should they be called?
    Can you imagine a Nimby fascist? The kind of person who would be in favour of concentration camps as long as they didn't affect their home price. Have I inadvertently stumbled upon the definition of a Daily Mail reader?
    You jest, but what else do you think dictates the location of migrant holding places?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
    It's not paranoia to say some behaviour is beyond the pale.

    Fascists, Putinists, antivax bullshitters, NIMBYs and others in the same league as those pond life. What else should they be called?
    Can you imagine a Nimby fascist? The kind of person who would be in favour of concentration camps as long as they didn't affect their home price. Have I inadvertently stumbled upon the definition of a Daily Mail reader?
    IIRC When Schindler moved his factory from Poland to Moravia, the locals complained that they didn't want Jews locally.... they weren't upset about the work camp bit. Literal NIMBY Nazis.
    Why do you suppose the extermination camps were in Poland?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
    It's not paranoia to say some behaviour is beyond the pale.

    Fascists, Putinists, antivax bullshitters, NIMBYs and others in the same league as those pond life. What else should they be called?
    Can you imagine a Nimby fascist? The kind of person who would be in favour of concentration camps as long as they didn't affect their home price. Have I inadvertently stumbled upon the definition of a Daily Mail reader?
    You jest, but what else do you think dictates the location of migrant holding places?
    Although the North Staffs Hotel is in a Tory marginal.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,938
    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    "four times closer" is enough for the banhammer, imo. "1/4 as far" FFS, or US four times further.

    (I may be alone in this bugging me - I was probably twice less anal when I was three times less old.)
    You are not alone. It drives me up the wall.

    Not sure of the point of it either. America is many, many, many more times closer to Russia (just to carry on the theme of making smaller things sound bigger although actually being correct).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 30,268
    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
    It's not paranoia to say some behaviour is beyond the pale.

    Fascists, Putinists, antivax bullshitters, NIMBYs and others in the same league as those pond life. What else should they be called?
    Can you imagine a Nimby fascist? The kind of person who would be in favour of concentration camps as long as they didn't affect their home price. Have I inadvertently stumbled upon the definition of a Daily Mail reader?
    IIRC When Schindler moved his factory from Poland to Moravia, the locals complained that they didn't want Jews locally.... they weren't upset about the work camp bit. Literal NIMBY Nazis.
    Why do you suppose the extermination camps were in Poland?
    IIRC one reason was making sure that insurance policies were invalid. Yes, the Nazis were engaging in mass genocide, but they didn't want to break insurance policies. That would be wrong.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Raging paranoia.
    It's not paranoia to say some behaviour is beyond the pale.

    Fascists, Putinists, antivax bullshitters, NIMBYs and others in the same league as those pond life. What else should they be called?
    Can you imagine a Nimby fascist? The kind of person who would be in favour of concentration camps as long as they didn't affect their home price. Have I inadvertently stumbled upon the definition of a Daily Mail reader?
    Well indeed there does seem to be a remarkable overlap in the Venn Diagram covering those four categories. Five if you include Daily Mail readers. 😉
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824
    edited November 4
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Leon said:

    Is there value betting AGAINST the Arizona favourite, Kari Lake, at these odds?




    The early votes are modestly good for the Dems, the polls have significantly tightened. No way Kari Lake is that big a favourite

    She's 2 points clear in the 538 pollnig average. Barring two 11 point lead polls the polls are very consistent at a 1-3 point lead for Lake.

    So betting against her is betting on herding polling error in favour of the Democrats.

    I am not tempted but 5/1 is definitely in the zone of temptation for betting on Hobbs here.
    Too close to the result for trading bets, so I'm not interested (FWTW).

    Though Hobbs definitely has some sort of chance.
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2022/arizona/
    This is what I meant by bet AGAINST Lake. Bet on Hobbs

    5/1 seems a little generous in an incredibly tight two horse race

    And Lake has made a few errors recently - the Pelosi thing. Nothing terrible but it is very close

    Oh, it's a value bet.
    But I've been caught in one too many value traps, that's all. For less timid people than me, it's worth a punt.
    More to the point, since the odds on Ladbrokes aren't far off evens (both marginally odds-on) and on BFE only 1.7/2.08, if it is indeed 5/1 on another site there is money to be made on arbitrage. I can't imagine the odds above are still there?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,631
    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    "four times closer" is enough for the banhammer, imo. "1/4 as far" FFS, or US four times further.

    (I may be alone in this bugging me - I was probably twice less anal when I was three times less old.)
    Farther not further - because you are referring to physical distance.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,286
    Stocky said:

    Selebian said:

    TimS said:

    DougSeal said:

    DJ41 said:

    I was bored last night and calculated that Britain is four times closer to Russia (Lowestoft to Kaliningrad) than it is to the US (Cornwall to Maine).

    Kalingrad’s cheating a little bit though.
    I doubt that worries the poster, for whom the KPI is to sow doubt in the minds of UK online communities about:

    - Britain being "in too deep" in the Ukraine war and implicated in acts like the Sevastopol attack
    - Ukraine being in a weaker position than media would have us think
    - The risk of nuclear war and the danger of escalation

    All of which is supposed to lead to "maybe we should make a deal with Putin".

    Interestingly most of their posts have been coming at this from a left rather than right wing perspective, hence the absence of anti-vax comments so far. A new tactic. More subtle than most too, and only a few less obvious tells - I think this is one of the top performers.
    I agree, and I do hope he or she stays, and does nothing ban worthy - it's good that this perspective has a presence here.
    "four times closer" is enough for the banhammer, imo. "1/4 as far" FFS, or US four times further.

    (I may be alone in this bugging me - I was probably twice less anal when I was three times less old.)
    Farther not further - because you are referring to physical distance.
    Only in American English. In British English, it's always "further".

    https://proofed.co.uk/writing-tips/word-choice-farther-vs-further/#:~:text='Further' and 'farther','further' all the time.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    MaxPB said:

    Off topic. We dodged a bullet. I wouldn't have voted for Boris but many would.

    Boris would have made the members vote.
    Boris would have won the members vote
    We would have more to worry about that Leaky Sue.
    Boris would have lost the members vote which is why he pulled out. That would have been utterly humiliating.
    Wishful thinking. I was at a members event last weekend and it was chock full of older members lamenting they didn't get a chance to put Boris back in. No amount of calling them out of touch with reality gets through to them, they are impervious to real life. Everything is some kind of conspiracy to prevent "those of us who worked hard all our lives" from "having our say", some of the more delusional ones seemed to think that Rishi conspire with Labour to strip them of their votes. Honestly, the Tory party membership is a complete mess. The Mail has completely addled their brains.
    Look at our very own @Casino_Royale here who, with an 80-seat majority in the HoC, nevertheless blames "the LIberati" for frustrating ordinary decent peoples' plans to torpedo boats in the channel bringing Albanians over here to wash our cars.
    That is pretty much what ODP really do want. Can't buck the polling.
    I remember Roger Moore's complaints about his final outing, A View To A Kill. Christopher Walken's character callously machine-gunning his own henchmen.

    That is how the ODP envisage the solution to the boat people issue. With the Nigel likely on his boat directing the fire. That is the level of vitriol and hatred that has been whipped up. Once again I have seen a lot of hate directed at the RNLI for their actions rescuing drowning people from the water. This is madness.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    This, I think, is the definitive statement on Musk's adventure.

    Elon Musk's offer to buy Twitter was so outlandishly high that a.) Twitter's old board couldn't say no, b.) Musk himself couldn't afford it, and c.) it damned the entire company to significant debt and massive layoffs. Every part of this deal has been and continues to be stupid.
    https://twitter.com/ScottNover/status/1588369490722492417

    Like Morrisons. Or, going further back, Kraft's buyout of Cadbury or Glazer's of ManUtd.

    Why do they never learn?
    Sometimes you get bad deals like the Glazers with ManUtd or Hicks and Gillette with LFC.

    But sometimes you get really good deals that work well for all parties, like FSG taking over LFC.

    Too early to tell if Musk and Twitter will be like the Glazers or FSG, or something in-between. But worst case if Musk does destroy Twitter then he's done something positive for humanity at the cost of his own money. Best case if he makes Twitter something other than a hate filled egotistical spawning ground then he's done something positive too.
    This hate thing, Barty. If you're against it I suggest you stop unironically calling people scum.
    I believe in being honest not mendacious.

    Perhaps they should stop being scum?
    Scum just means they rise to the top - it's a compliment. It's when you get called dregs that you have to worry.
    Precisely why scum is the right word.

    Unless you want scum on top you need to worry about the scum because having that at the top can be very problematic if unwanted. Whether that be on a pool, or as President of a country invading other nations or starting race wars, or more prosaic localised NIMBY scum rising to the top of local politics.

    Good filtration systems, progressive movement rather than stagnation etc can prevent scum problems arising but you have to be alert and willing to take action unless you're happy to have a layer of scum on top.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 657

    Chris said:

    If Elon Musk spontaneously ceased to exist, the human race would be better off by far.

    Comments welcome.

    If Twitter spontaneously ceased to exist, the human race would be even better off by far.

    Musk has done some very good things for humanity with his developments with SpaceX and Tesla moving technology forward by step changes. He's done more for the world than Twitter ever has.

    He's also an egotistical prick who is full of himself. Which is kind of Twitters target market.
    Amusing to see him blaming non-specific 'activists' for pressuring brands into dropping their ads from his platform. Nothing to do with his intentions to move away from moderation and the mad blue tick ideas, no no. Nor his weird lecturing of advertisers about how they should be behaving on Twitter.

    Fact is, Twitter is niche advertising platform that is still half a decade behind Meta in what it can offer advertisers (plus a much smaller audience). What's actually happening is brand managers deciding that they'll save themself a potential headache and opt out of this (already fairly crappy) channel, and invest that 1-2% o their media budget previously allocated to the Bird into Meta or Google instead.
This discussion has been closed.