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With four days to go the Republicans edge back into the lead – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 15 in General
imageWith four days to go the Republicans edge back into the lead – politicalbetting.com

We are just 4 days off the November 8th Midterm elections in the United States when the Democrats will be defending their majority in the House of Representatives and hoping to maintain the edge in the Senate. There are also hundreds of state and local contests taking place.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,758
    Andy_JS said:

    Abolish the Home Office.

    "A second group of asylum seekers from the Manston immigration centre have said that they were abandoned at Victoria coach station by the Home Office and forced to sleep outside. The incident is alleged to have taken place less than 24 hours after the Home Office left 11 migrants in the coach station without accommodation or warm clothing. The Home Office denied that the asylum seekers involved in the first incident had been abandoned in error and claimed that accommodation for them had been organised." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/second-group-of-migrants-abandoned-at-victoria-coach-station-6l0925jkl

    That's the 'defund the police' approach.

    Abolish the Home Office and replace it with what? A vacuum?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    Hullo? Anyone there?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434
    Feels like Republicans have the momentum here. I have a feeling they're going to do better than expected, unfortunately.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,928
    I don't think anyone could have predicted the reality of how poor the equipment and training of the Russian Armed Forces has been. Its frankly astonishing, but what is more astonishing is that Putin did not seem to be aware of how bad the situation was.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,758

    The outlook is bleak for so many and now we hear that Trump could be the POTUS and it makes one despair for the future

    It looks like Sunak/ Hunt are about to deliver a tax raising budget that would just as easily been delivered by Rachel Reeves

    I notice that in Scotland Sturgeon is offering a 7% rise to NHS staff but taking the cost from NHS investment in services

    The fact is there is only so much money and all governments will be forced into impossible choices


    Cheer up Big_G, it's rarely as bad as we fear.

    Btw raising tax is not an impossible choice. Unpalatable maybe but inevitable now. Covid + Ukraine have been bad luck, sure, but we just have to stump up and pay for it as a nation. And I suspect you and I can afford to pay a bit more than those on low wages and Universal Credit.
    I agree and I feel for so many who must be living a nightmare

    My wife and I know we are very fortunate and of course would pay more tax but actually cancelling the triple lock would be fairer even though we would be affected
    I agree but I also recognise that the Tories (and Labour) made a manifesto commitment to keep it in place, and in general I think parties should stick to their manifesto commitments.

    The solution is to extend employee NI to all income, then roll NI into Income Tax a year or so later.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,843
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Is it next week that Putin wins?

    "Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine" says MTG to Republican cheers.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1588300985482764288?t=lthMwIXgpZd8NeaB-vqi9Q&s=19

    For as long as Biden is in the White House, it will be fine. It's if he is replaced in January 2025 by Trump or another Republican that everything will change. The implications of that not only for Ukraine, but for NATO as a whole, are huge.

    As it is at least a 50% chance, and quite possibly higher, that the GOP takes the presidency next time around, the UK and the rest of Europe really need to start thinking about it now - and working out how they will react. Of course, that will not happen. So, that is when Putin wins.

    The fact that the US is no longer an entirely reliable ally - and is unlikely ever to be so again - has huge consequences for the whole of Europe that cannot be solved unless the whole of Europe works closely together. It is, quite frankly, terrifying!

    Another geopolitical benefit chalked up to the master stroke that is Brexit. The weakening of European relations at the time we need them most.

    This is too serious for Brexit knockabout. Unless European countries work together on defence in a way that does not depend on the Americans, we are always going to be at the mercy of the whims of whoever is in charge in the Kremlin - and Ukraine is likely to pay the consequences as soon as the GOP takes control of the White House.

    The UK, France and Germany have to find a way to work together - and to convince the countries of central and eastern Europe that we are serious about doing so. Anything else is a total failure of leadership. Throwing blame around, as I am sure will happen on here and elsewhere, is entirely pointless. It will not solve the problem.

    I am less than optimistic.

    Yup. You’re right to be pessimistic. The idea of Western Europe collaborating sufficiently to be greater than the sum of its parts seems further away than ever.
    I wonder if we might not first see *eastern* Europe (in the EU) collaborating sufficiently to be far greater than the sum of its parts. Russia is a significant motivator in that regard.
    I don't think people are thinking through the consequences of the Ukraine war for Russia. It is not only no longer a great power, it is not a military power at all. Its army and air force have been destroyed in Ukraine, they do not have the technological base to replace what has been lost, we are seeing a country which is dependent upon the industrial prowess of Iran and mercenaries to be able to wage war at all. It's pathetic.

    I accept that for so long as they can sell raw materials abroad it doesn't always have to be like this. But it will be for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a much more likely scenario than Russia invading anywhere else is the breakup of Russia itself with the minority nations, who have borne by far the brunt of this war, breaking off from Russia in a similar pattern to what we saw at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The scary bit is that the lesson these new countries will have learned from Ukraine is never give up your nuclear warheads.

    All that is correct for as long as Ukraine has the means to defend itself. And that requires significant US intervention. Should that end, everything changes - and probably pretty quickly.

    It's too late for Russia. They have still lost most of their more modern tanks and are burning their way through their recycled wreaks. They have lost most of their fighter aircraft and never been able to establish air superiority. They have used up their stocks of more sophisticated missiles and don't have access to the chips to make new ones. They have lost most of their more modern artillery, their helicopters and support vehicles.

    I accept that if a GOP dominated US cuts off the supply of weapons the current offensives would run out of steam pretty quickly and it is unlikely Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out but that is very different from saying Russia would win. They have already lost.
    I normally find your posts sensible and well argued David but you appear to be guilty of a bit of hyperbole with the "they have lost most of their fighter aircraft" claim.

    Oryx has the Russians losing 263 combat aircraft; any way you look at it they had several thousand or more to start.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Air_Force_aircraft

    The air superiority issue is more about the strength of (both sides) air defences, rather than aircraft numbers or losses.
    The real issue is how many of those planes are capable of flying. If it was more than a smallish percentage they would be flying now over Ukraine, or at least being used to fire missiles remotely. The Russian armed forces have Potemkin like qualities, worn down by corruption and incompetence to well below their paper strength. The Special Military Operation has exposed the reality.
    As an aside, one of the curiouser bits of intelligence in the last week or two is that Russia was repatriating Potemkin's remains from his current resting place in Kherson Cathedral. I like to think the removal of Potemkin involved an ornate new tomb in Russia, but no disinterral - a Potemkin removal if you like.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,758
    Andy_JS said:
    Could go either way depending on what the polling error turns out to be.

    "Since 1998, polls of U.S. Senate elections conducted within three weeks of Election Day have had a weighted-average error of 5.4 percentage points, and polls of U.S. House elections have had a weighted-average error of 6.3 points."

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-polling-error/
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I don't think anyone could have predicted the reality of how poor the equipment and training of the Russian Armed Forces has been. Its frankly astonishing, but what is more astonishing is that Putin did not seem to be aware of how bad the situation was.

    Happened with Saddam too. This is why prudent sovereigns inspect their troops to see for themselves. It looks ceremonial now, it has deadly serious roots.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    I don't think anyone could have predicted the reality of how poor the equipment and training of the Russian Armed Forces has been. Its frankly astonishing, but what is more astonishing is that Putin did not seem to be aware of how bad the situation was.

    Not sure the latter is astonishing at all. He has built an entire regime on fear and lies and this was on top of a long standing issue with corruption throughout russian society that long predates him. So no surprise they everyone below him felt the only way to stay alive was to lie to him.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    edited November 4
    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is

    “USA - Biden - “So the economy is up, price inflation is down, real incomes are up, gas prices are down!"

    This is called misinformation.”

    https://twitter.com/berniespofforth/status/1588436074074091520?s=61&t=Bt0uQJdxBPeY_ewD0LQujA

    If the Dems are sincere about stopping Trump, perhaps they could get a wiggle on, and dump this geriatric twit and propose a serious, younger candidate. Then they can stop Trump
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,481

    Andy_JS said:

    Abolish the Home Office.

    "A second group of asylum seekers from the Manston immigration centre have said that they were abandoned at Victoria coach station by the Home Office and forced to sleep outside. The incident is alleged to have taken place less than 24 hours after the Home Office left 11 migrants in the coach station without accommodation or warm clothing. The Home Office denied that the asylum seekers involved in the first incident had been abandoned in error and claimed that accommodation for them had been organised." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/second-group-of-migrants-abandoned-at-victoria-coach-station-6l0925jkl

    That's the 'defund the police' approach.

    Abolish the Home Office and replace it with what? A vacuum?
    You could replace it with a vacuum or pretty much any other household appliance, they'd all be an improvement.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    FPT:
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Is it next week that Putin wins?

    "Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine" says MTG to Republican cheers.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1588300985482764288?t=lthMwIXgpZd8NeaB-vqi9Q&s=19

    For as long as Biden is in the White House, it will be fine. It's if he is replaced in January 2025 by Trump or another Republican that everything will change. The implications of that not only for Ukraine, but for NATO as a whole, are huge.

    As it is at least a 50% chance, and quite possibly higher, that the GOP takes the presidency next time around, the UK and the rest of Europe really need to start thinking about it now - and working out how they will react. Of course, that will not happen. So, that is when Putin wins.

    The fact that the US is no longer an entirely reliable ally - and is unlikely ever to be so again - has huge consequences for the whole of Europe that cannot be solved unless the whole of Europe works closely together. It is, quite frankly, terrifying!

    Another geopolitical benefit chalked up to the master stroke that is Brexit. The weakening of European relations at the time we need them most.

    This is too serious for Brexit knockabout. Unless European countries work together on defence in a way that does not depend on the Americans, we are always going to be at the mercy of the whims of whoever is in charge in the Kremlin - and Ukraine is likely to pay the consequences as soon as the GOP takes control of the White House.

    The UK, France and Germany have to find a way to work together - and to convince the countries of central and eastern Europe that we are serious about doing so. Anything else is a total failure of leadership. Throwing blame around, as I am sure will happen on here and elsewhere, is entirely pointless. It will not solve the problem.

    I am less than optimistic.

    Yup. You’re right to be pessimistic. The idea of Western Europe collaborating sufficiently to be greater than the sum of its parts seems further away than ever.
    I wonder if we might not first see *eastern* Europe (in the EU) collaborating sufficiently to be far greater than the sum of its parts. Russia is a significant motivator in that regard.
    I don't think people are thinking through the consequences of the Ukraine war for Russia. It is not only no longer a great power, it is not a military power at all. Its army and air force have been destroyed in Ukraine, they do not have the technological base to replace what has been lost, we are seeing a country which is dependent upon the industrial prowess of Iran and mercenaries to be able to wage war at all. It's pathetic.

    I accept that for so long as they can sell raw materials abroad it doesn't always have to be like this. But it will be for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a much more likely scenario than Russia invading anywhere else is the breakup of Russia itself with the minority nations, who have borne by far the brunt of this war, breaking off from Russia in a similar pattern to what we saw at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The scary bit is that the lesson these new countries will have learned from Ukraine is never give up your nuclear warheads.

    All that is correct for as long as Ukraine has the means to defend itself. And that requires significant US intervention. Should that end, everything changes - and probably pretty quickly.

    It's too late for Russia. They have still lost most of their more modern tanks and are burning their way through their recycled wreaks. They have lost most of their fighter aircraft and never been able to establish air superiority. They have used up their stocks of more sophisticated missiles and don't have access to the chips to make new ones. They have lost most of their more modern artillery, their helicopters and support vehicles.

    I accept that if a GOP dominated US cuts off the supply of weapons the current offensives would run out of steam pretty quickly and it is unlikely Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out but that is very different from saying Russia would win. They have already lost.
    I normally find your posts sensible and well argued David but you appear to be guilty of a bit of hyperbole with the "they have lost most of their fighter aircraft" claim.

    Oryx has the Russians losing 263 combat aircraft; any way you look at it they had several thousand or more to start.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Air_Force_aircraft

    The air superiority issue is more about the strength of (both sides) air defences, rather than aircraft numbers or losses.
    The real issue is how many of those planes are capable of flying. If it was more than a smallish percentage they would be flying now over Ukraine, or at least being used to fire missiles remotely. The Russian armed forces have Potemkin like qualities, worn down by corruption and incompetence to well below their paper strength. The Special Military Operation has exposed the reality.
    It’s very true that we are looking at a paper bear, relying on mercenaries for soldiers, and on Iran and Belarus for weapons.

    But, and it’s a very big but, they do still have a large pile of WMDs, and it only takes a few of these to turn the world upside-down.

    I suspect that, when this war is over, the supervised nuclear disarmament of Russia will be their price for being accepted back into the world under a new leader.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,758
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Abolish the Home Office.

    "A second group of asylum seekers from the Manston immigration centre have said that they were abandoned at Victoria coach station by the Home Office and forced to sleep outside. The incident is alleged to have taken place less than 24 hours after the Home Office left 11 migrants in the coach station without accommodation or warm clothing. The Home Office denied that the asylum seekers involved in the first incident had been abandoned in error and claimed that accommodation for them had been organised." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/second-group-of-migrants-abandoned-at-victoria-coach-station-6l0925jkl

    That's the 'defund the police' approach.

    Abolish the Home Office and replace it with what? A vacuum?
    Well, the FBI did fine under Hoover.
    Hmmm... maybe we should just suck it and see then?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Is it next week that Putin wins?

    "Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine" says MTG to Republican cheers.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1588300985482764288?t=lthMwIXgpZd8NeaB-vqi9Q&s=19

    For as long as Biden is in the White House, it will be fine. It's if he is replaced in January 2025 by Trump or another Republican that everything will change. The implications of that not only for Ukraine, but for NATO as a whole, are huge.

    As it is at least a 50% chance, and quite possibly higher, that the GOP takes the presidency next time around, the UK and the rest of Europe really need to start thinking about it now - and working out how they will react. Of course, that will not happen. So, that is when Putin wins.

    The fact that the US is no longer an entirely reliable ally - and is unlikely ever to be so again - has huge consequences for the whole of Europe that cannot be solved unless the whole of Europe works closely together. It is, quite frankly, terrifying!

    Another geopolitical benefit chalked up to the master stroke that is Brexit. The weakening of European relations at the time we need them most.

    This is too serious for Brexit knockabout. Unless European countries work together on defence in a way that does not depend on the Americans, we are always going to be at the mercy of the whims of whoever is in charge in the Kremlin - and Ukraine is likely to pay the consequences as soon as the GOP takes control of the White House.

    The UK, France and Germany have to find a way to work together - and to convince the countries of central and eastern Europe that we are serious about doing so. Anything else is a total failure of leadership. Throwing blame around, as I am sure will happen on here and elsewhere, is entirely pointless. It will not solve the problem.

    I am less than optimistic.

    Yup. You’re right to be pessimistic. The idea of Western Europe collaborating sufficiently to be greater than the sum of its parts seems further away than ever.
    I wonder if we might not first see *eastern* Europe (in the EU) collaborating sufficiently to be far greater than the sum of its parts. Russia is a significant motivator in that regard.
    I don't think people are thinking through the consequences of the Ukraine war for Russia. It is not only no longer a great power, it is not a military power at all. Its army and air force have been destroyed in Ukraine, they do not have the technological base to replace what has been lost, we are seeing a country which is dependent upon the industrial prowess of Iran and mercenaries to be able to wage war at all. It's pathetic.

    I accept that for so long as they can sell raw materials abroad it doesn't always have to be like this. But it will be for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a much more likely scenario than Russia invading anywhere else is the breakup of Russia itself with the minority nations, who have borne by far the brunt of this war, breaking off from Russia in a similar pattern to what we saw at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The scary bit is that the lesson these new countries will have learned from Ukraine is never give up your nuclear warheads.

    All that is correct for as long as Ukraine has the means to defend itself. And that requires significant US intervention. Should that end, everything changes - and probably pretty quickly.

    It's too late for Russia. They have still lost most of their more modern tanks and are burning their way through their recycled wreaks. They have lost most of their fighter aircraft and never been able to establish air superiority. They have used up their stocks of more sophisticated missiles and don't have access to the chips to make new ones. They have lost most of their more modern artillery, their helicopters and support vehicles.

    I accept that if a GOP dominated US cuts off the supply of weapons the current offensives would run out of steam pretty quickly and it is unlikely Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out but that is very different from saying Russia would win. They have already lost.
    I normally find your posts sensible and well argued David but you appear to be guilty of a bit of hyperbole with the "they have lost most of their fighter aircraft" claim.

    Oryx has the Russians losing 263 combat aircraft; any way you look at it they had several thousand or more to start.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Air_Force_aircraft

    The air superiority issue is more about the strength of (both sides) air defences, rather than aircraft numbers or losses.
    The real issue is how many of those planes are capable of flying. If it was more than a smallish percentage they would be flying now over Ukraine, or at least being used to fire missiles remotely. The Russian armed forces have Potemkin like qualities, worn down by corruption and incompetence to well below their paper strength. The Special Military Operation has exposed the reality.
    It’s very true that we are looking at a paper bear, relying on mercenaries for soldiers, and on Iran and Belarus for weapons.

    But, and it’s a very big but, they do still have a large pile of WMDs, and it only takes a few of these to turn the world upside-down.

    I suspect that, when this war is over, the supervised nuclear disarmament of Russia will be their price for being accepted back into the world under a new leader.
    Is your last sentence a joke?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,497
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is
    Just thank the Lord your boy Trump has the same wisdom and clarity of thought as Albert Einstein in his heyday.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    There’s plenty of Republicans saying that of course one shouldn’t count one’s chickens, but it’s going to be a landslide.

    I think it will be a close win in the Senate, a big win in the House - but with a lot of results not following the trend, because of good and bad candidates.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,402

    I don't think anyone could have predicted the reality of how poor the equipment and training of the Russian Armed Forces has been. Its frankly astonishing, but what is more astonishing is that Putin did not seem to be aware of how bad the situation was.

    True but it is not just Russia. Look at the way we lost control of our borders and (this thread) abandon asylum seekers in London SW1, or the catalogue of disasters around the Manchester Arena bombing because none of the emergency services could talk to the others. Look at Twitter. Perhaps we need to throw some research funds at organisational psychologists to investigate how groups of very clever people can screw up so comprehensively, so often.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    Andy_JS said:

    Abolish the Home Office.

    "A second group of asylum seekers from the Manston immigration centre have said that they were abandoned at Victoria coach station by the Home Office and forced to sleep outside. The incident is alleged to have taken place less than 24 hours after the Home Office left 11 migrants in the coach station without accommodation or warm clothing. The Home Office denied that the asylum seekers involved in the first incident had been abandoned in error and claimed that accommodation for them had been organised." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/second-group-of-migrants-abandoned-at-victoria-coach-station-6l0925jkl

    That's the 'defund the police' approach.

    Abolish the Home Office and replace it with what? A vacuum?
    How much worse would that be? Serious question.

    Based on bitter personal experience that if you abolished the DfE things would probably dramatically improve. Similarly the DfT, the DoH and whatever they call the department for Local Government this week.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 657
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is

    “USA - Biden - “So the economy is up, price inflation is down, real incomes are up, gas prices are down!"

    This is called misinformation.”

    https://twitter.com/berniespofforth/status/1588436074074091520?s=61&t=Bt0uQJdxBPeY_ewD0LQujA

    If the Dems are sincere about stopping Trump, perhaps they could get a wiggle on, and dump this geriatric twit and propose a serious, younger candidate. Then they can stop Trump
    From the outside looking in, this seems like the only way. Buttigieg, O'Rourke etc.; anyone with a bit of energy and dynamism. Trump is an old, hateful man who appeals to the very worst instincts of his electorate. MAGA, despite the name, is not an optimistic movement.

    A young candidate with a measured sense of change and optimism would be the way to go. They're nuts if they keep Biden.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Is it next week that Putin wins?

    "Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine" says MTG to Republican cheers.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1588300985482764288?t=lthMwIXgpZd8NeaB-vqi9Q&s=19

    For as long as Biden is in the White House, it will be fine. It's if he is replaced in January 2025 by Trump or another Republican that everything will change. The implications of that not only for Ukraine, but for NATO as a whole, are huge.

    As it is at least a 50% chance, and quite possibly higher, that the GOP takes the presidency next time around, the UK and the rest of Europe really need to start thinking about it now - and working out how they will react. Of course, that will not happen. So, that is when Putin wins.

    The fact that the US is no longer an entirely reliable ally - and is unlikely ever to be so again - has huge consequences for the whole of Europe that cannot be solved unless the whole of Europe works closely together. It is, quite frankly, terrifying!

    Another geopolitical benefit chalked up to the master stroke that is Brexit. The weakening of European relations at the time we need them most.

    This is too serious for Brexit knockabout. Unless European countries work together on defence in a way that does not depend on the Americans, we are always going to be at the mercy of the whims of whoever is in charge in the Kremlin - and Ukraine is likely to pay the consequences as soon as the GOP takes control of the White House.

    The UK, France and Germany have to find a way to work together - and to convince the countries of central and eastern Europe that we are serious about doing so. Anything else is a total failure of leadership. Throwing blame around, as I am sure will happen on here and elsewhere, is entirely pointless. It will not solve the problem.

    I am less than optimistic.

    Yup. You’re right to be pessimistic. The idea of Western Europe collaborating sufficiently to be greater than the sum of its parts seems further away than ever.
    I wonder if we might not first see *eastern* Europe (in the EU) collaborating sufficiently to be far greater than the sum of its parts. Russia is a significant motivator in that regard.
    I don't think people are thinking through the consequences of the Ukraine war for Russia. It is not only no longer a great power, it is not a military power at all. Its army and air force have been destroyed in Ukraine, they do not have the technological base to replace what has been lost, we are seeing a country which is dependent upon the industrial prowess of Iran and mercenaries to be able to wage war at all. It's pathetic.

    I accept that for so long as they can sell raw materials abroad it doesn't always have to be like this. But it will be for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a much more likely scenario than Russia invading anywhere else is the breakup of Russia itself with the minority nations, who have borne by far the brunt of this war, breaking off from Russia in a similar pattern to what we saw at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The scary bit is that the lesson these new countries will have learned from Ukraine is never give up your nuclear warheads.

    All that is correct for as long as Ukraine has the means to defend itself. And that requires significant US intervention. Should that end, everything changes - and probably pretty quickly.

    It's too late for Russia. They have still lost most of their more modern tanks and are burning their way through their recycled wreaks. They have lost most of their fighter aircraft and never been able to establish air superiority. They have used up their stocks of more sophisticated missiles and don't have access to the chips to make new ones. They have lost most of their more modern artillery, their helicopters and support vehicles.

    I accept that if a GOP dominated US cuts off the supply of weapons the current offensives would run out of steam pretty quickly and it is unlikely Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out but that is very different from saying Russia would win. They have already lost.
    I normally find your posts sensible and well argued David but you appear to be guilty of a bit of hyperbole with the "they have lost most of their fighter aircraft" claim.

    Oryx has the Russians losing 263 combat aircraft; any way you look at it they had several thousand or more to start.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Air_Force_aircraft

    The air superiority issue is more about the strength of (both sides) air defences, rather than aircraft numbers or losses.
    The real issue is how many of those planes are capable of flying. If it was more than a smallish percentage they would be flying now over Ukraine, or at least being used to fire missiles remotely. The Russian armed forces have Potemkin like qualities, worn down by corruption and incompetence to well below their paper strength. The Special Military Operation has exposed the reality.
    It’s very true that we are looking at a paper bear, relying on mercenaries for soldiers, and on Iran and Belarus for weapons.

    But, and it’s a very big but, they do still have a large pile of WMDs, and it only takes a few of these to turn the world upside-down.

    I suspect that, when this war is over, the supervised nuclear disarmament of Russia will be their price for being accepted back into the world under a new leader.
    Is your last sentence a joke?
    Nope. It’ll be just like Iran, the sanctions remain in place until the WMDs have gone. If the next Russian leader wants the world to treat his country as anything other than a pariah, then he knows what needs to be done.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    What an over from Naveen. Superb bowling crowned with an even more superb runout.

    Australia will still win though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is
    Just thank the Lord your boy Trump has the same wisdom and clarity of thought as Albert Einstein in his heyday.
    I despise Trump and fear his malignant presence in the White House. Next time around could be much worse than the first. Probably would be

    But he needs to be defeated democratically. So for that the Dems need a good strong centrist candidate. Anything else is defeatist decadence at a time of maximum peril. Someone has to tell Sleepy Uncle Joe: not this time

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    O/T

    "Cricket laws change: New batter on strike even if players 'cross' on catch from October"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/60665829
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824

    I don't think anyone could have predicted the reality of how poor the equipment and training of the Russian Armed Forces has been. Its frankly astonishing, but what is more astonishing is that Putin did not seem to be aware of how bad the situation was.

    Because people always rush to pass bad news up to absolute dictators?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Is it next week that Putin wins?

    "Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine" says MTG to Republican cheers.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1588300985482764288?t=lthMwIXgpZd8NeaB-vqi9Q&s=19

    For as long as Biden is in the White House, it will be fine. It's if he is replaced in January 2025 by Trump or another Republican that everything will change. The implications of that not only for Ukraine, but for NATO as a whole, are huge.

    As it is at least a 50% chance, and quite possibly higher, that the GOP takes the presidency next time around, the UK and the rest of Europe really need to start thinking about it now - and working out how they will react. Of course, that will not happen. So, that is when Putin wins.

    The fact that the US is no longer an entirely reliable ally - and is unlikely ever to be so again - has huge consequences for the whole of Europe that cannot be solved unless the whole of Europe works closely together. It is, quite frankly, terrifying!

    Another geopolitical benefit chalked up to the master stroke that is Brexit. The weakening of European relations at the time we need them most.

    This is too serious for Brexit knockabout. Unless European countries work together on defence in a way that does not depend on the Americans, we are always going to be at the mercy of the whims of whoever is in charge in the Kremlin - and Ukraine is likely to pay the consequences as soon as the GOP takes control of the White House.

    The UK, France and Germany have to find a way to work together - and to convince the countries of central and eastern Europe that we are serious about doing so. Anything else is a total failure of leadership. Throwing blame around, as I am sure will happen on here and elsewhere, is entirely pointless. It will not solve the problem.

    I am less than optimistic.

    Yup. You’re right to be pessimistic. The idea of Western Europe collaborating sufficiently to be greater than the sum of its parts seems further away than ever.
    I wonder if we might not first see *eastern* Europe (in the EU) collaborating sufficiently to be far greater than the sum of its parts. Russia is a significant motivator in that regard.
    I don't think people are thinking through the consequences of the Ukraine war for Russia. It is not only no longer a great power, it is not a military power at all. Its army and air force have been destroyed in Ukraine, they do not have the technological base to replace what has been lost, we are seeing a country which is dependent upon the industrial prowess of Iran and mercenaries to be able to wage war at all. It's pathetic.

    I accept that for so long as they can sell raw materials abroad it doesn't always have to be like this. But it will be for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a much more likely scenario than Russia invading anywhere else is the breakup of Russia itself with the minority nations, who have borne by far the brunt of this war, breaking off from Russia in a similar pattern to what we saw at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The scary bit is that the lesson these new countries will have learned from Ukraine is never give up your nuclear warheads.

    All that is correct for as long as Ukraine has the means to defend itself. And that requires significant US intervention. Should that end, everything changes - and probably pretty quickly.

    It's too late for Russia. They have still lost most of their more modern tanks and are burning their way through their recycled wreaks. They have lost most of their fighter aircraft and never been able to establish air superiority. They have used up their stocks of more sophisticated missiles and don't have access to the chips to make new ones. They have lost most of their more modern artillery, their helicopters and support vehicles.

    I accept that if a GOP dominated US cuts off the supply of weapons the current offensives would run out of steam pretty quickly and it is unlikely Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out but that is very different from saying Russia would win. They have already lost.
    I normally find your posts sensible and well argued David but you appear to be guilty of a bit of hyperbole with the "they have lost most of their fighter aircraft" claim.

    Oryx has the Russians losing 263 combat aircraft; any way you look at it they had several thousand or more to start.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Air_Force_aircraft

    The air superiority issue is more about the strength of (both sides) air defences, rather than aircraft numbers or losses.
    The real issue is how many of those planes are capable of flying. If it was more than a smallish percentage they would be flying now over Ukraine, or at least being used to fire missiles remotely. The Russian armed forces have Potemkin like qualities, worn down by corruption and incompetence to well below their paper strength. The Special Military Operation has exposed the reality.
    It’s very true that we are looking at a paper bear, relying on mercenaries for soldiers, and on Iran and Belarus for weapons.

    But, and it’s a very big but, they do still have a large pile of WMDs, and it only takes a few of these to turn the world upside-down.

    I suspect that, when this war is over, the supervised nuclear disarmament of Russia will be their price for being accepted back into the world under a new leader.
    Is your last sentence a joke?
    Nope. It’ll be just like Iran, the sanctions remain in place until the WMDs have gone. If the next Russian leader wants the world to treat his country as anything other than a pariah, then he knows what needs to be done.
    I wonder which way China would jump on that? They don't want people to think aggression can be punished, but equally disarming Russia is very much in their long term interests. It would both leave them the undisputed second military power in the world, and leave Siberia open to Chinese incursions should they so wish.

    That being said, I suspect they would rather see sanctions left in place so Russia has to trade only through them.

    The one thing we can definitely say is Russia is in a position where they have no good options left.

    As the saying goes, karma's a bitch.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is
    Just thank the Lord your boy Trump has the same wisdom and clarity of thought as Albert Einstein in his heyday.
    I despise Trump and fear his malignant presence in the White House. Next time around could be much worse than the first. Probably would be

    But he needs to be defeated democratically. So for that the Dems need a good strong centrist candidate. Anything else is defeatist decadence at a time of maximum peril. Someone has to tell Sleepy Uncle Joe: not this time

    Yep, but they need to fix the Harris problem before he can stand aside. I think he gets primaried by Buttigieg, and that sets the ball rolling on a proper Dem primary season.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Is it next week that Putin wins?

    "Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine" says MTG to Republican cheers.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1588300985482764288?t=lthMwIXgpZd8NeaB-vqi9Q&s=19

    For as long as Biden is in the White House, it will be fine. It's if he is replaced in January 2025 by Trump or another Republican that everything will change. The implications of that not only for Ukraine, but for NATO as a whole, are huge.

    As it is at least a 50% chance, and quite possibly higher, that the GOP takes the presidency next time around, the UK and the rest of Europe really need to start thinking about it now - and working out how they will react. Of course, that will not happen. So, that is when Putin wins.

    The fact that the US is no longer an entirely reliable ally - and is unlikely ever to be so again - has huge consequences for the whole of Europe that cannot be solved unless the whole of Europe works closely together. It is, quite frankly, terrifying!

    Another geopolitical benefit chalked up to the master stroke that is Brexit. The weakening of European relations at the time we need them most.

    This is too serious for Brexit knockabout. Unless European countries work together on defence in a way that does not depend on the Americans, we are always going to be at the mercy of the whims of whoever is in charge in the Kremlin - and Ukraine is likely to pay the consequences as soon as the GOP takes control of the White House.

    The UK, France and Germany have to find a way to work together - and to convince the countries of central and eastern Europe that we are serious about doing so. Anything else is a total failure of leadership. Throwing blame around, as I am sure will happen on here and elsewhere, is entirely pointless. It will not solve the problem.

    I am less than optimistic.

    Yup. You’re right to be pessimistic. The idea of Western Europe collaborating sufficiently to be greater than the sum of its parts seems further away than ever.
    I wonder if we might not first see *eastern* Europe (in the EU) collaborating sufficiently to be far greater than the sum of its parts. Russia is a significant motivator in that regard.
    I don't think people are thinking through the consequences of the Ukraine war for Russia. It is not only no longer a great power, it is not a military power at all. Its army and air force have been destroyed in Ukraine, they do not have the technological base to replace what has been lost, we are seeing a country which is dependent upon the industrial prowess of Iran and mercenaries to be able to wage war at all. It's pathetic.

    I accept that for so long as they can sell raw materials abroad it doesn't always have to be like this. But it will be for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a much more likely scenario than Russia invading anywhere else is the breakup of Russia itself with the minority nations, who have borne by far the brunt of this war, breaking off from Russia in a similar pattern to what we saw at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The scary bit is that the lesson these new countries will have learned from Ukraine is never give up your nuclear warheads.

    All that is correct for as long as Ukraine has the means to defend itself. And that requires significant US intervention. Should that end, everything changes - and probably pretty quickly.

    It's too late for Russia. They have still lost most of their more modern tanks and are burning their way through their recycled wreaks. They have lost most of their fighter aircraft and never been able to establish air superiority. They have used up their stocks of more sophisticated missiles and don't have access to the chips to make new ones. They have lost most of their more modern artillery, their helicopters and support vehicles.

    I accept that if a GOP dominated US cuts off the supply of weapons the current offensives would run out of steam pretty quickly and it is unlikely Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out but that is very different from saying Russia would win. They have already lost.
    I normally find your posts sensible and well argued David but you appear to be guilty of a bit of hyperbole with the "they have lost most of their fighter aircraft" claim.

    Oryx has the Russians losing 263 combat aircraft; any way you look at it they had several thousand or more to start.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Air_Force_aircraft

    The air superiority issue is more about the strength of (both sides) air defences, rather than aircraft numbers or losses.
    The real issue is how many of those planes are capable of flying. If it was more than a smallish percentage they would be flying now over Ukraine, or at least being used to fire missiles remotely. The Russian armed forces have Potemkin like qualities, worn down by corruption and incompetence to well below their paper strength. The Special Military Operation has exposed the reality.
    It’s very true that we are looking at a paper bear, relying on mercenaries for soldiers, and on Iran and Belarus for weapons.

    But, and it’s a very big but, they do still have a large pile of WMDs, and it only takes a few of these to turn the world upside-down.

    I suspect that, when this war is over, the supervised nuclear disarmament of Russia will be their price for being accepted back into the world under a new leader.
    Is your last sentence a joke?
    Nope. It’ll be just like Iran, the sanctions remain in place until the WMDs have gone. If the next Russian leader wants the world to treat his country as anything other than a pariah, then he knows what needs to be done.
    * he or she

    You never know, the race for first female leader could be a close thing between Labour and Russia
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    "Germany's Olaf Scholz said Friday on his first visit to China as chancellor that he sought a deeper economic relationship with Beijing but expected equal treatment."

    https://www.france24.com/en/china/20221104-german-chancellor-s-visit-to-china-tests-ties-expected-to-discuss-ukraine
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,497
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is
    Just thank the Lord your boy Trump has the same wisdom and clarity of thought as Albert Einstein in his heyday.
    I despise Trump and fear his malignant presence in the White House. Next time around could be much worse than the first. Probably would be

    But he needs to be defeated democratically. So for that the Dems need a good strong centrist candidate. Anything else is defeatist decadence at a time of maximum peril. Someone has to tell Sleepy Uncle Joe: not this time

    Trump was "defeated democratically" in 2020. It didn't deter him from claiming he wasn't.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Is it next week that Putin wins?

    "Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine" says MTG to Republican cheers.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1588300985482764288?t=lthMwIXgpZd8NeaB-vqi9Q&s=19

    For as long as Biden is in the White House, it will be fine. It's if he is replaced in January 2025 by Trump or another Republican that everything will change. The implications of that not only for Ukraine, but for NATO as a whole, are huge.

    As it is at least a 50% chance, and quite possibly higher, that the GOP takes the presidency next time around, the UK and the rest of Europe really need to start thinking about it now - and working out how they will react. Of course, that will not happen. So, that is when Putin wins.

    The fact that the US is no longer an entirely reliable ally - and is unlikely ever to be so again - has huge consequences for the whole of Europe that cannot be solved unless the whole of Europe works closely together. It is, quite frankly, terrifying!

    Another geopolitical benefit chalked up to the master stroke that is Brexit. The weakening of European relations at the time we need them most.

    This is too serious for Brexit knockabout. Unless European countries work together on defence in a way that does not depend on the Americans, we are always going to be at the mercy of the whims of whoever is in charge in the Kremlin - and Ukraine is likely to pay the consequences as soon as the GOP takes control of the White House.

    The UK, France and Germany have to find a way to work together - and to convince the countries of central and eastern Europe that we are serious about doing so. Anything else is a total failure of leadership. Throwing blame around, as I am sure will happen on here and elsewhere, is entirely pointless. It will not solve the problem.

    I am less than optimistic.

    Yup. You’re right to be pessimistic. The idea of Western Europe collaborating sufficiently to be greater than the sum of its parts seems further away than ever.
    I wonder if we might not first see *eastern* Europe (in the EU) collaborating sufficiently to be far greater than the sum of its parts. Russia is a significant motivator in that regard.
    I don't think people are thinking through the consequences of the Ukraine war for Russia. It is not only no longer a great power, it is not a military power at all. Its army and air force have been destroyed in Ukraine, they do not have the technological base to replace what has been lost, we are seeing a country which is dependent upon the industrial prowess of Iran and mercenaries to be able to wage war at all. It's pathetic.

    I accept that for so long as they can sell raw materials abroad it doesn't always have to be like this. But it will be for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a much more likely scenario than Russia invading anywhere else is the breakup of Russia itself with the minority nations, who have borne by far the brunt of this war, breaking off from Russia in a similar pattern to what we saw at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The scary bit is that the lesson these new countries will have learned from Ukraine is never give up your nuclear warheads.

    All that is correct for as long as Ukraine has the means to defend itself. And that requires significant US intervention. Should that end, everything changes - and probably pretty quickly.

    It's too late for Russia. They have still lost most of their more modern tanks and are burning their way through their recycled wreaks. They have lost most of their fighter aircraft and never been able to establish air superiority. They have used up their stocks of more sophisticated missiles and don't have access to the chips to make new ones. They have lost most of their more modern artillery, their helicopters and support vehicles.

    I accept that if a GOP dominated US cuts off the supply of weapons the current offensives would run out of steam pretty quickly and it is unlikely Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out but that is very different from saying Russia would win. They have already lost.
    I normally find your posts sensible and well argued David but you appear to be guilty of a bit of hyperbole with the "they have lost most of their fighter aircraft" claim.

    Oryx has the Russians losing 263 combat aircraft; any way you look at it they had several thousand or more to start.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Air_Force_aircraft

    The air superiority issue is more about the strength of (both sides) air defences, rather than aircraft numbers or losses.
    The real issue is how many of those planes are capable of flying. If it was more than a smallish percentage they would be flying now over Ukraine, or at least being used to fire missiles remotely. The Russian armed forces have Potemkin like qualities, worn down by corruption and incompetence to well below their paper strength. The Special Military Operation has exposed the reality.
    It’s very true that we are looking at a paper bear, relying on mercenaries for soldiers, and on Iran and Belarus for weapons.

    But, and it’s a very big but, they do still have a large pile of WMDs, and it only takes a few of these to turn the world upside-down.

    I suspect that, when this war is over, the supervised nuclear disarmament of Russia will be their price for being accepted back into the world under a new leader.
    Is your last sentence a joke?
    Nope. It’ll be just like Iran, the sanctions remain in place until the WMDs have gone. If the next Russian leader wants the world to treat his country as anything other than a pariah, then he knows what needs to be done.
    Um, no? No Russian leader would ever give up Russia's nukes. Ever. They'd be hanging from the nearest lamp post. Russia's shit military capability makes giving up their nukes less likely, not more. As for 'being treated like a pariah'; one of Russia's few successes in all this has been to defy the West's sanctions and keep its economy going.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,065
    FPT:

    About Russia's military strength.

    I've wittered on in the past about how Russia's military strength does not seem to match its expenditure. In 2020 Russia spent $61.71B on its military, on a GDP of $2.1 trillion. With that, it fields a massive number of tanks, planes, SAM systems, men, and other things - not least thousands of nuclear warheads.

    In comparison, the Euro area spent $194.71B on its military in the same year, with a GDP of $13.3 trillion.

    So the Euro area spends much more on its military, from a much larger GDP, and has a military that is much smaller in some metrics (e.g. number of tanks) and larger in others (e.g. number of planes), whilst also not having to maintain a massive number of nuclear weapons.

    You PPP is a thing, and you can pay men a pittance. But when it comes to technology, if you do not do things right, effectiveness falls off a cliff. There are corners that can be cut, and we in the west certainly overspend,

    The figures for Russian military strength, in terms of numbers, just do not make sense. Or if they are real, large amounts of the kit will be [email protected]

    https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/mil_spend/European-union/
    http://www.aalep.eu/eu-vs-russia-military-strengths
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,928
    IanB2 said:

    I don't think anyone could have predicted the reality of how poor the equipment and training of the Russian Armed Forces has been. Its frankly astonishing, but what is more astonishing is that Putin did not seem to be aware of how bad the situation was.

    Because people always rush to pass bad news up to absolute dictators?
    I suppose that must be the reason but to have never checked for yourself, ( or sent one of your loyal henchmen to do the checking) when you have been in power for 20 years is proper mad.

    I wonder if America knew.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    168 is definitely enough for Australia to win comfortably. But they're going to have to bowl really well to significantly improve their NRR. 64 runs to move a fraction ahead of England on NRR, and that's assuming of course England don't beat Sri Lanka (although the way the two sides have been playing I think that's a safe assumption).
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,625
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is
    Just thank the Lord your boy Trump has the same wisdom and clarity of thought as Albert Einstein in his heyday.
    I despise Trump and fear his malignant presence in the White House. Next time around could be much worse than the first. Probably would be

    But he needs to be defeated democratically. So for that the Dems need a good strong centrist candidate. Anything else is defeatist decadence at a time of maximum peril. Someone has to tell Sleepy Uncle Joe: not this time

    His presence in the White House was afaicr a lot less malignant from the UK's perspective than that of the current incumbent. Or do you think the world then was worse than the world now?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824

    FPT:

    About Russia's military strength.

    I've wittered on in the past about how Russia's military strength does not seem to match its expenditure. In 2020 Russia spent $61.71B on its military, on a GDP of $2.1 trillion. With that, it fields a massive number of tanks, planes, SAM systems, men, and other things - not least thousands of nuclear warheads.

    In comparison, the Euro area spent $194.71B on its military in the same year, with a GDP of $13.3 trillion.

    So the Euro area spends much more on its military, from a much larger GDP, and has a military that is much smaller in some metrics (e.g. number of tanks) and larger in others (e.g. number of planes), whilst also not having to maintain a massive number of nuclear weapons.

    You PPP is a thing, and you can pay men a pittance. But when it comes to technology, if you do not do things right, effectiveness falls off a cliff. There are corners that can be cut, and we in the west certainly overspend,

    The figures for Russian military strength, in terms of numbers, just do not make sense. Or if they are real, large amounts of the kit will be [email protected]

    https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/mil_spend/European-union/
    http://www.aalep.eu/eu-vs-russia-military-strengths

    As if all the videos helpfully posted up to YouTube of Russians making and mending and using stuff weren't clues enough?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is
    Just thank the Lord your boy Trump has the same wisdom and clarity of thought as Albert Einstein in his heyday.
    I despise Trump and fear his malignant presence in the White House. Next time around could be much worse than the first. Probably would be

    But he needs to be defeated democratically. So for that the Dems need a good strong centrist candidate. Anything else is defeatist decadence at a time of maximum peril. Someone has to tell Sleepy Uncle Joe: not this time

    Trump was "defeated democratically" in 2020. It didn't deter him from claiming he wasn't.
    I mean democratically and handily. By an inarguably big margin. A good Dem candidate could do that - I hope. I don’t think Joe Biden can
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    IanB2 said:

    I don't think anyone could have predicted the reality of how poor the equipment and training of the Russian Armed Forces has been. Its frankly astonishing, but what is more astonishing is that Putin did not seem to be aware of how bad the situation was.

    Because people always rush to pass bad news up to absolute dictators?
    I suppose that must be the reason but to have never checked for yourself, ( or sent one of your loyal henchmen to do the checking) when you have been in power for 20 years is proper mad.

    I wonder if America knew.
    My guess is they were fed so many conflicting reports they didn't know what to believe and therefore went with the 'worst case scenario' that the Russians were very strong.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is
    Just thank the Lord your boy Trump has the same wisdom and clarity of thought as Albert Einstein in his heyday.
    I despise Trump and fear his malignant presence in the White House. Next time around could be much worse than the first. Probably would be

    But he needs to be defeated democratically. So for that the Dems need a good strong centrist candidate. Anything else is defeatist decadence at a time of maximum peril. Someone has to tell Sleepy Uncle Joe: not this time

    His presence in the White House was afaicr a lot less malignant from the UK's perspective than that of the current incumbent. Or do you think the world then was worse than the world now?

    But his presidency was inescapably malign for the USA, and January 6th was an outrage. And remember I abhor Woke Democrats. Trump is much worse than THEM
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,938
    I'm an Only Connect fan, but had to watch it on iplayer this week as I was out when it was broadcast. I just saw it last night, so I don't know if this has already been mentioned, but Victoria Coren did a fantastic tribute to PBs MP, Aaron Bell, in one of her normally batty interludes.

    I knew he was a previous winner of the show and had done well in other shows, but until I looked at his Wikipedia page I had no idea how well he had done. It is clear we do have some very bright MPs.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Is it next week that Putin wins?

    "Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine" says MTG to Republican cheers.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1588300985482764288?t=lthMwIXgpZd8NeaB-vqi9Q&s=19

    For as long as Biden is in the White House, it will be fine. It's if he is replaced in January 2025 by Trump or another Republican that everything will change. The implications of that not only for Ukraine, but for NATO as a whole, are huge.

    As it is at least a 50% chance, and quite possibly higher, that the GOP takes the presidency next time around, the UK and the rest of Europe really need to start thinking about it now - and working out how they will react. Of course, that will not happen. So, that is when Putin wins.

    The fact that the US is no longer an entirely reliable ally - and is unlikely ever to be so again - has huge consequences for the whole of Europe that cannot be solved unless the whole of Europe works closely together. It is, quite frankly, terrifying!

    Another geopolitical benefit chalked up to the master stroke that is Brexit. The weakening of European relations at the time we need them most.

    This is too serious for Brexit knockabout. Unless European countries work together on defence in a way that does not depend on the Americans, we are always going to be at the mercy of the whims of whoever is in charge in the Kremlin - and Ukraine is likely to pay the consequences as soon as the GOP takes control of the White House.

    The UK, France and Germany have to find a way to work together - and to convince the countries of central and eastern Europe that we are serious about doing so. Anything else is a total failure of leadership. Throwing blame around, as I am sure will happen on here and elsewhere, is entirely pointless. It will not solve the problem.

    I am less than optimistic.

    Yup. You’re right to be pessimistic. The idea of Western Europe collaborating sufficiently to be greater than the sum of its parts seems further away than ever.
    I wonder if we might not first see *eastern* Europe (in the EU) collaborating sufficiently to be far greater than the sum of its parts. Russia is a significant motivator in that regard.
    I don't think people are thinking through the consequences of the Ukraine war for Russia. It is not only no longer a great power, it is not a military power at all. Its army and air force have been destroyed in Ukraine, they do not have the technological base to replace what has been lost, we are seeing a country which is dependent upon the industrial prowess of Iran and mercenaries to be able to wage war at all. It's pathetic.

    I accept that for so long as they can sell raw materials abroad it doesn't always have to be like this. But it will be for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a much more likely scenario than Russia invading anywhere else is the breakup of Russia itself with the minority nations, who have borne by far the brunt of this war, breaking off from Russia in a similar pattern to what we saw at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The scary bit is that the lesson these new countries will have learned from Ukraine is never give up your nuclear warheads.

    All that is correct for as long as Ukraine has the means to defend itself. And that requires significant US intervention. Should that end, everything changes - and probably pretty quickly.

    It's too late for Russia. They have still lost most of their more modern tanks and are burning their way through their recycled wreaks. They have lost most of their fighter aircraft and never been able to establish air superiority. They have used up their stocks of more sophisticated missiles and don't have access to the chips to make new ones. They have lost most of their more modern artillery, their helicopters and support vehicles.

    I accept that if a GOP dominated US cuts off the supply of weapons the current offensives would run out of steam pretty quickly and it is unlikely Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out but that is very different from saying Russia would win. They have already lost.
    I normally find your posts sensible and well argued David but you appear to be guilty of a bit of hyperbole with the "they have lost most of their fighter aircraft" claim.

    Oryx has the Russians losing 263 combat aircraft; any way you look at it they had several thousand or more to start.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Air_Force_aircraft

    The air superiority issue is more about the strength of (both sides) air defences, rather than aircraft numbers or losses.
    The real issue is how many of those planes are capable of flying. If it was more than a smallish percentage they would be flying now over Ukraine, or at least being used to fire missiles remotely. The Russian armed forces have Potemkin like qualities, worn down by corruption and incompetence to well below their paper strength. The Special Military Operation has exposed the reality.
    It’s very true that we are looking at a paper bear, relying on mercenaries for soldiers, and on Iran and Belarus for weapons.

    But, and it’s a very big but, they do still have a large pile of WMDs, and it only takes a few of these to turn the world upside-down.

    I suspect that, when this war is over, the supervised nuclear disarmament of Russia will be their price for being accepted back into the world under a new leader.
    Is your last sentence a joke?
    Nope. It’ll be just like Iran, the sanctions remain in place until the WMDs have gone. If the next Russian leader wants the world to treat his country as anything other than a pariah, then he knows what needs to be done.
    Um, no? No Russian leader would ever give up Russia's nukes. Ever. They'd be hanging from the nearest lamp post. Russia's shit military capability makes giving up their nukes less likely, not more. As for 'being treated like a pariah'; one of Russia's few successes in all this has been to defy the West's sanctions and keep its economy going.
    The idea Russia would abandon its nukes (immediately after it has been proven, yet again, how valuable they are) is delusional wishcasting nonsense

    Nukes are - sadly - going to proliferate after this war. South Korea and Japan will overtly or covertly acquire them, and they are probably taking steps already. Russia will not stand for a world where it can be bullied by South Korea
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    edited November 4
    kjh said:

    I'm an Only Connect fan, but had to watch it on iplayer this week as I was out when it was broadcast. I just saw it last night, so I don't know if this has already been mentioned, but Victoria Coren did a fantastic tribute to PBs MP, Aaron Bell, in one of her normally batty interludes.

    I knew he was a previous winner of the show and had done well in other shows, but until I looked at his Wikipedia page I had no idea how well he had done. It is clear we do have some very bright MPs.

    Which makes it the more unforgivable that they make some really dumb decisions.

    Edit - of course, that's almost a separate question. Lots of incredibly bright people have poor judgement (exhibit A - yours truly)! Winston Churchill and Lloyd George would be good examples. Wrong on so many major issues, but not stupid. Kwarteng is a clear warning in our own times.

    Not just politicians either. Simon Case is also clearly highly intelligent, but his judgement is appalling.

    Perhaps we should remember Lord Liverpool, the only PM since 1783 younger than Sunak, who was anything but bright but was very shrewd at reading a situation.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913

    FPT:

    About Russia's military strength.

    I've wittered on in the past about how Russia's military strength does not seem to match its expenditure. In 2020 Russia spent $61.71B on its military, on a GDP of $2.1 trillion. With that, it fields a massive number of tanks, planes, SAM systems, men, and other things - not least thousands of nuclear warheads.

    In comparison, the Euro area spent $194.71B on its military in the same year, with a GDP of $13.3 trillion.

    So the Euro area spends much more on its military, from a much larger GDP, and has a military that is much smaller in some metrics (e.g. number of tanks) and larger in others (e.g. number of planes), whilst also not having to maintain a massive number of nuclear weapons.

    You PPP is a thing, and you can pay men a pittance. But when it comes to technology, if you do not do things right, effectiveness falls off a cliff. There are corners that can be cut, and we in the west certainly overspend,

    The figures for Russian military strength, in terms of numbers, just do not make sense. Or if they are real, large amounts of the kit will be [email protected]

    https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/mil_spend/European-union/
    http://www.aalep.eu/eu-vs-russia-military-strengths

    I think it’s fair to say, that there’s very little Russian military equipment that dates from 2020. A few dozen tanks, maybe a handful of planes and some missiles.

    The vast majority of the Russian kit is cold-war Soviet stuff in various states of serviceability - great for counting equipment numbers, but a rubbish way of measuring actual capability on the battlefield.

    Oh, and most of the people tasked with using it, don’t want to be in this war. Conscripts haven’t been paid, and neither have casualties. Even before the war started, the soldiers “training” in Belarus were selling diesel to buy vodka.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,616
    kjh said:

    I'm an Only Connect fan, but had to watch it on iplayer this week as I was out when it was broadcast. I just saw it last night, so I don't know if this has already been mentioned, but Victoria Coren did a fantastic tribute to PBs MP, Aaron Bell, in one of her normally batty interludes.

    I knew he was a previous winner of the show and had done well in other shows, but until I looked at his Wikipedia page I had no idea how well he had done. It is clear we do have some very bright MPs.

    He appeared on Deal or No Deal, good grief. Alas, he lost to Imperial on University Challenge, that must have hurt.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    edited November 4

    FPT:

    About Russia's military strength.

    I've wittered on in the past about how Russia's military strength does not seem to match its expenditure. In 2020 Russia spent $61.71B on its military, on a GDP of $2.1 trillion. With that, it fields a massive number of tanks, planes, SAM systems, men, and other things - not least thousands of nuclear warheads.

    In comparison, the Euro area spent $194.71B on its military in the same year, with a GDP of $13.3 trillion.

    So the Euro area spends much more on its military, from a much larger GDP, and has a military that is much smaller in some metrics (e.g. number of tanks) and larger in others (e.g. number of planes), whilst also not having to maintain a massive number of nuclear weapons.

    You PPP is a thing, and you can pay men a pittance. But when it comes to technology, if you do not do things right, effectiveness falls off a cliff...

    For example, they can't replace the kit they used to source from Ukraine.
    Russia tries to use passenger jet engines for its heavy helicopters reliant on Ukrainian engines - Defense24

    Russians failed to produce their engine in the last 6-8 yrs, now it may go into production not early than 2025 if its development would succeed

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1588467410549592064
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,065

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    mwadams said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Is it next week that Putin wins?

    "Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine" says MTG to Republican cheers.

    https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1588300985482764288?t=lthMwIXgpZd8NeaB-vqi9Q&s=19

    For as long as Biden is in the White House, it will be fine. It's if he is replaced in January 2025 by Trump or another Republican that everything will change. The implications of that not only for Ukraine, but for NATO as a whole, are huge.

    As it is at least a 50% chance, and quite possibly higher, that the GOP takes the presidency next time around, the UK and the rest of Europe really need to start thinking about it now - and working out how they will react. Of course, that will not happen. So, that is when Putin wins.

    The fact that the US is no longer an entirely reliable ally - and is unlikely ever to be so again - has huge consequences for the whole of Europe that cannot be solved unless the whole of Europe works closely together. It is, quite frankly, terrifying!

    Another geopolitical benefit chalked up to the master stroke that is Brexit. The weakening of European relations at the time we need them most.

    This is too serious for Brexit knockabout. Unless European countries work together on defence in a way that does not depend on the Americans, we are always going to be at the mercy of the whims of whoever is in charge in the Kremlin - and Ukraine is likely to pay the consequences as soon as the GOP takes control of the White House.

    The UK, France and Germany have to find a way to work together - and to convince the countries of central and eastern Europe that we are serious about doing so. Anything else is a total failure of leadership. Throwing blame around, as I am sure will happen on here and elsewhere, is entirely pointless. It will not solve the problem.

    I am less than optimistic.

    Yup. You’re right to be pessimistic. The idea of Western Europe collaborating sufficiently to be greater than the sum of its parts seems further away than ever.
    I wonder if we might not first see *eastern* Europe (in the EU) collaborating sufficiently to be far greater than the sum of its parts. Russia is a significant motivator in that regard.
    I don't think people are thinking through the consequences of the Ukraine war for Russia. It is not only no longer a great power, it is not a military power at all. Its army and air force have been destroyed in Ukraine, they do not have the technological base to replace what has been lost, we are seeing a country which is dependent upon the industrial prowess of Iran and mercenaries to be able to wage war at all. It's pathetic.

    I accept that for so long as they can sell raw materials abroad it doesn't always have to be like this. But it will be for the foreseeable future. Indeed, a much more likely scenario than Russia invading anywhere else is the breakup of Russia itself with the minority nations, who have borne by far the brunt of this war, breaking off from Russia in a similar pattern to what we saw at the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    The scary bit is that the lesson these new countries will have learned from Ukraine is never give up your nuclear warheads.

    All that is correct for as long as Ukraine has the means to defend itself. And that requires significant US intervention. Should that end, everything changes - and probably pretty quickly.

    It's too late for Russia. They have still lost most of their more modern tanks and are burning their way through their recycled wreaks. They have lost most of their fighter aircraft and never been able to establish air superiority. They have used up their stocks of more sophisticated missiles and don't have access to the chips to make new ones. They have lost most of their more modern artillery, their helicopters and support vehicles.

    I accept that if a GOP dominated US cuts off the supply of weapons the current offensives would run out of steam pretty quickly and it is unlikely Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out but that is very different from saying Russia would win. They have already lost.
    I normally find your posts sensible and well argued David but you appear to be guilty of a bit of hyperbole with the "they have lost most of their fighter aircraft" claim.

    Oryx has the Russians losing 263 combat aircraft; any way you look at it they had several thousand or more to start.

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Russian_Air_Force_aircraft

    The air superiority issue is more about the strength of (both sides) air defences, rather than aircraft numbers or losses.
    The real issue is how many of those planes are capable of flying. If it was more than a smallish percentage they would be flying now over Ukraine, or at least being used to fire missiles remotely. The Russian armed forces have Potemkin like qualities, worn down by corruption and incompetence to well below their paper strength. The Special Military Operation has exposed the reality.
    It’s very true that we are looking at a paper bear, relying on mercenaries for soldiers, and on Iran and Belarus for weapons.

    But, and it’s a very big but, they do still have a large pile of WMDs, and it only takes a few of these to turn the world upside-down.

    I suspect that, when this war is over, the supervised nuclear disarmament of Russia will be their price for being accepted back into the world under a new leader.
    Is your last sentence a joke?
    Nope. It’ll be just like Iran, the sanctions remain in place until the WMDs have gone. If the next Russian leader wants the world to treat his country as anything other than a pariah, then he knows what needs to be done.
    Um, no? No Russian leader would ever give up Russia's nukes. Ever. They'd be hanging from the nearest lamp post. Russia's shit military capability makes giving up their nukes less likely, not more. As for 'being treated like a pariah'; one of Russia's few successes in all this has been to defy the West's sanctions and keep its economy going.
    "defy the West's sanctions and keep its economy going."

    Which, of course, is why they've stopped publishing economic figures....
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,285

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Abolish the Home Office.

    "A second group of asylum seekers from the Manston immigration centre have said that they were abandoned at Victoria coach station by the Home Office and forced to sleep outside. The incident is alleged to have taken place less than 24 hours after the Home Office left 11 migrants in the coach station without accommodation or warm clothing. The Home Office denied that the asylum seekers involved in the first incident had been abandoned in error and claimed that accommodation for them had been organised." (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/second-group-of-migrants-abandoned-at-victoria-coach-station-6l0925jkl

    That's the 'defund the police' approach.

    Abolish the Home Office and replace it with what? A vacuum?
    Well, the FBI did fine under Hoover.
    Hmmm... maybe we should just suck it and see then?
    These days, we'd probably just get some Shark.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belize:

    #Belize is not in negotiations with the #UK or any other country to accept #migrants. We will not agree to accept exported migrants. That is inhumane and contrary to #InternationalLaw.

    https://twitter.com/ecourtbzeeamon/status/1587956771750137856?s=46&t=0gmgzEFNaR4p_Lta4d39UQ
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,989
    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,066
    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520
    Nigelb said:

    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.

    File that one under 'brave'
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    Nigelb said:

    FPT:

    About Russia's military strength.

    I've wittered on in the past about how Russia's military strength does not seem to match its expenditure. In 2020 Russia spent $61.71B on its military, on a GDP of $2.1 trillion. With that, it fields a massive number of tanks, planes, SAM systems, men, and other things - not least thousands of nuclear warheads.

    In comparison, the Euro area spent $194.71B on its military in the same year, with a GDP of $13.3 trillion.

    So the Euro area spends much more on its military, from a much larger GDP, and has a military that is much smaller in some metrics (e.g. number of tanks) and larger in others (e.g. number of planes), whilst also not having to maintain a massive number of nuclear weapons.

    You PPP is a thing, and you can pay men a pittance. But when it comes to technology, if you do not do things right, effectiveness falls off a cliff...

    For example, they can't replace the kit they used to source from Ukraine.
    Russia tries to use passenger jet engines for its heavy helicopters reliant on Ukrainian engines - Defense24

    Russians failed to produce their engine in the last 6-8 yrs, now it may go into production not early than 2025 if its development would succeed

    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1588467410549592064
    There was a story the other day, that Russia is having to import a lot of Asian consumer electronics, purely to get computer chips that they can adapt for (very unreliable, presumably) military use.

    Russia has almost no standalone capability to make military avionics systems for planes and missiles, nor the similar electronic warfare systems required for modern tanks.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359

    Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belize:

    #Belize is not in negotiations with the #UK or any other country to accept #migrants. We will not agree to accept exported migrants. That is inhumane and contrary to #InternationalLaw.

    https://twitter.com/ecourtbzeeamon/status/1587956771750137856?s=46&t=0gmgzEFNaR4p_Lta4d39UQ

    They took Ashcroft, didn't they ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,520

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    Thats pretty grim all around.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    Nigelb said:

    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.

    I suspect it will happen more in principle, than in practice.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,826

    Nigelb said:

    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.

    File that one under 'brave'
    I’m filing it under - balloon / wolf designed to make what is actually proposed look reasonable.

    Question is - does this mean a wealth tax or house value tax is going to be implemented. Remember that changing council tax bands is both a political nightmare, is seriously overdue and isn’t going to raise much
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    Nigelb said:

    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.

    Is that designed to exempt politicians on the grounds they have no principles?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,826
    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    It’s not but they are both desperate and idiots

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    No choice. It is an enormous waste of money.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,285
    kjh said:

    I'm an Only Connect fan, but had to watch it on iplayer this week as I was out when it was broadcast. I just saw it last night, so I don't know if this has already been mentioned, but Victoria Coren did a fantastic tribute to PBs MP, Aaron Bell, in one of her normally batty interludes.

    I knew he was a previous winner of the show and had done well in other shows, but until I looked at his Wikipedia page I had no idea how well he had done. It is clear we do have some very bright MPs.

    Aaron's range is the really impressive thing - UC for pure knowledge, OC for combining knowledge and lateral thinking, the Krypton Factor covers physical traits too, and then there's Deal Or No Deal for pure luck.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    I’m sure @foxy and @roger told us that most of the shivering Albanians are poor enslaved women?


    Oh

    “The BBC has heard evidence that Albanian drug gangs are using the migrant camps of northern France as a recruitment ground, offering to pay the passage of those prepared to work in the UK drugs industry on arrival
    .
    Albanians account for around a third of the almost 40,000 people who have arrived in small boats so far this year, according to UK government figures.

    The UK government says 12,000 Albanians have arrived by small boat this year, almost all of them young men travelling alone.

    He estimates that a majority of the young men he met in the Dunkirk camp planned to work in the Albanian cannabis and cocaine networks in the UK.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63488070

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Nigelb said:

    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.

    Tory Death Wish.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903
    Driver said:

    kjh said:

    I'm an Only Connect fan, but had to watch it on iplayer this week as I was out when it was broadcast. I just saw it last night, so I don't know if this has already been mentioned, but Victoria Coren did a fantastic tribute to PBs MP, Aaron Bell, in one of her normally batty interludes.

    I knew he was a previous winner of the show and had done well in other shows, but until I looked at his Wikipedia page I had no idea how well he had done. It is clear we do have some very bright MPs.

    Aaron's range is the really impressive thing - UC for pure knowledge, OC for combining knowledge and lateral thinking, the Krypton Factor covers physical traits too, and then there's Deal Or No Deal for pure luck.
    And then there's support for Liz Truss, just to prove we all make mistakes...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    edited November 4
    We are insane. If this continues all the young men in Albania will move to the UK - illegally

    From that BBC report

    “Laknas lies on the flight path from Albania to France. Passenger jets zoom over the still and empty town: over its small mosque framed by half-built blocks and shuttered houses; over its deserted café.

    Shopkeepers gather in the quiet road to complain that their business is unviable.
    A pair of cows mumble away at the grass by the still main road.

    "They're all I have left," their owner says. "My children have gone to England."

    Residents here say 70% of the local population has already left for the UK. And the departures haven't stopped.”
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,563
    Nigelb said:

    Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belize:

    #Belize is not in negotiations with the #UK or any other country to accept #migrants. We will not agree to accept exported migrants. That is inhumane and contrary to #InternationalLaw.

    https://twitter.com/ecourtbzeeamon/status/1587956771750137856?s=46&t=0gmgzEFNaR4p_Lta4d39UQ

    They took Ashcroft, didn't they ?
    Once burned...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913
    edited November 4

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    LOL! That will make the Guardian columnists choke on their tofu.

    By the way, there’s currently a 6-8 week wait for ‘fast track’ tourist visas to the UK - something that’s rather disrupting my Christmas planning at the moment. Only a £1k ‘emergency’ visa is available at shorter notice.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,697
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.

    Is that designed to exempt politicians on the grounds they have no principles?
    It's fine; they can just "flip" so that the house they're selling is the one that isn't their principle residence.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    Thats pretty grim all around.
    It's starting to wind up like the death penalty isn't it ?

    Broad popular support for simply turning the boats round to France (At a minimum) & summary detention, x-rays for those claiming to be children with the great and the good who run the stuff generally are far too full of sensibilities to do much about it (Jenrick is much more typical than Braverman of our politicians on the matters).
    Braverman knows this, understands it and actually on a practical level is a KC and fluent (I'd guess) in French so might actually be able to get the practical things done to sort the situation.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434
    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    I’m sure @foxy and @roger told us that most of the shivering Albanians are poor enslaved women?


    Oh

    “The BBC has heard evidence that Albanian drug gangs are using the migrant camps of northern France as a recruitment ground, offering to pay the passage of those prepared to work in the UK drugs industry on arrival
    .
    Albanians account for around a third of the almost 40,000 people who have arrived in small boats so far this year, according to UK government figures.

    The UK government says 12,000 Albanians have arrived by small boat this year, almost all of them young men travelling alone.

    He estimates that a majority of the young men he met in the Dunkirk camp planned to work in the Albanian cannabis and cocaine networks in the UK.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63488070

    What happens when a society has an insatiable desire for narcotics and insists on making them illegal.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 1,132

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    No choice. It is an enormous waste of money.
    At this point in time the £25billion (+overruns) might well be better spent on wind + solar + a very large battery system. Put R+D money into the small RR reactors which can be built out for £1billion a piece on shorter notice if we end up needing them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    Depends what alternatives we can build in less time, for the same or less money.

    Looking at Wikipedia, it looks as though the financing for it was never properly sorted.
    ...In January 2022, the UK government invested £100 million towards continued development of the project.[40] In March 2022, it was announced that the UK government and EDF would each take a 20% stake in the project, with infrastructure investors and pension funds expected to take up the remaining 60%.[41]

    In August 2022, The Guardian reported expected costs were £20 billion to be paid with £1.7 billion of taxpayer money and a surcharge on customer energy bills through the Regulated Asset Base model. Barclays had been hired to find new financial backing.
  • eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.

    File that one under 'brave'
    I’m filing it under - balloon / wolf designed to make what is actually proposed look reasonable.

    Question is - does this mean a wealth tax or house value tax is going to be implemented. Remember that changing council tax bands is both a political nightmare, is seriously overdue and isn’t going to raise much
    Thing is- if these are the kites being flown to make reality not so bad, what does their awfulness tell us about the actual plans?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    When they say 'swing voter' who are they swinging between? Tory/UKIP/BNP?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333
    Leon said:

    DavidL said:

    These polls are being distorted by Republican friendly pollsters but Biden was looking pretty down about it all yesterday.

    Biden is a disaster. Look at this. Not only does he mangle his argument (which is probably a lie anyway) he then wanders off the point like the doddery old fool he is

    “USA - Biden - “So the economy is up, price inflation is down, real incomes are up, gas prices are down!"

    This is called misinformation.”

    https://twitter.com/berniespofforth/status/1588436074074091520?s=61&t=Bt0uQJdxBPeY_ewD0LQujA

    If the Dems are sincere about stopping Trump, perhaps they could get a wiggle on, and dump this geriatric twit and propose a serious, younger candidate. Then they can stop Trump
    Biden has been a better President than I expected to be honest. But then, I didn't expect much. He has had a surprising number of legislative successes despite a tiny majority in the House with a party which contains more than its fair share of prima donnas and snowflakes who are unwilling to vote for the ok, even if that means the bad. He has been very strong on Ukraine although it is concerning that this has now become a partisan issue.

    But yes, his faculties were pretty limited in 2020, they will be unsellable by 2024 and he needs replaced as the nominee. Buttigeig seems by far the most obvious replacement.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    Nigelb said:

    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.

    Tory Death Wish.
    Honestly don't think he'd get that through parliament. Its utterly unTory.
    If he did it is, as you say, about as toxic as it gets for Tory voters (and most others!)
    Unless he slaps a minimum on it of 750,000 or so.........
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    Thats pretty grim all around.
    It's starting to wind up like the death penalty isn't it ?

    Broad popular support for simply turning the boats round to France (At a minimum) & summary detention, x-rays for those claiming to be children with the great and the good who run the stuff generally are far too full of sensibilities to do much about it (Jenrick is much more typical than Braverman of our politicians on the matters).
    Braverman knows this, understands it and actually on a practical level is a KC and fluent (I'd guess) in French so might actually be able to get the practical things done to sort the situation.
    How does an x ray help? Skeletal age and biological age can be radically different. (Our eldest daughter is very short for her age, so much so that she had a load of medical tests to make sure that there was no underlying problem; one finding from that was that her skeletal age is three years below her actual age).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    I’m sure @foxy and @roger told us that most of the shivering Albanians are poor enslaved women?


    Oh

    “The BBC has heard evidence that Albanian drug gangs are using the migrant camps of northern France as a recruitment ground, offering to pay the passage of those prepared to work in the UK drugs industry on arrival
    .
    Albanians account for around a third of the almost 40,000 people who have arrived in small boats so far this year, according to UK government figures.

    The UK government says 12,000 Albanians have arrived by small boat this year, almost all of them young men travelling alone.

    He estimates that a majority of the young men he met in the Dunkirk camp planned to work in the Albanian cannabis and cocaine networks in the UK.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63488070

    What happens when a society has an insatiable desire for narcotics and insists on making them illegal.
    And so somehow it’s our fault, yet again

    Is there a single issue where left wing people instinctively side with Britain and the British people, rather than Anyone Else?

    You guys are contemptible and I hope you contrive to lose the next election despite being 20 points ahead of a clown troupe. Ugh
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,846
    Nigelb said:

    Whispers in Westminster of removing the Capital Gains Tax exemption for principle residence that could net @hmtreasury £30bn a year.
    https://twitter.com/HenryPryor/status/1588442617196564480

    Not for very many years, I suspect.

    But money travels through time like nothing else. If this policy were implemented it would create a stream of future revenue against which we can start borrowing right away.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    It’s almost exactly a year ago when the beginning of the end started for the Tories. They were ahead in the opinion polls and cruising to another victory. Then came the pathetic and cynical attempt to save Owen Paterson. Since the it has been down, down, out….

    https://twitter.com/petewishart/status/1588448853102952449?s=46&t=8WjlJnwCVuje7_aMi-Bjaw

    Is it only a year?!? Seems like an eternity.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Phil said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    No choice. It is an enormous waste of money.
    At this point in time the £25billion (+overruns) might well be better spent on wind + solar + a very large battery system. Put R+D money into the small RR reactors which can be built out for £1billion a piece on shorter notice if we end up needing them.
    A couple more of these, for example.
    https://xlinks.co/octopus-energy-partnership/

    I'd also throw some cash at First Light Fusion. They look as though they might have a workable concept for actually generating power, and it wouldn't cost a huge amount of money to find out.
    Far better economics than the conventional nukes, if it does.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    When they say 'swing voter' who are they swinging between? Tory/UKIP/BNP?
    I'm sure these are widely held, majority views, unfortunately. It's what happens when you have a bad immigration policy, handled badly, and decades of scapegoating immigrants for the country's problems. I mean, blaming too many immigrants for the problems in the NHS (when the problem is too few immigrants in that case) just illustrates how messed up people's information is.
    Anyway, back to my tofu.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,309
    Sandpit said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    LOL! That will make the Guardian columnists choke on their tofu.

    Partisan culture war garbage from a normally excellent poster who should know better.


  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    I’m sure @foxy and @roger told us that most of the shivering Albanians are poor enslaved women?


    Oh

    “The BBC has heard evidence that Albanian drug gangs are using the migrant camps of northern France as a recruitment ground, offering to pay the passage of those prepared to work in the UK drugs industry on arrival
    .
    Albanians account for around a third of the almost 40,000 people who have arrived in small boats so far this year, according to UK government figures.

    The UK government says 12,000 Albanians have arrived by small boat this year, almost all of them young men travelling alone.

    He estimates that a majority of the young men he met in the Dunkirk camp planned to work in the Albanian cannabis and cocaine networks in the UK.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63488070

    What happens when a society has an insatiable desire for narcotics and insists on making them illegal.
    And so somehow it’s our fault, yet again

    Is there a single issue where left wing people instinctively side with Britain and the British people, rather than Anyone Else?

    You guys are contemptible and I hope you contrive to lose the next election despite being 20 points ahead of a clown troupe. Ugh
    You've probably been personally responsible for propping up half the black economy over the years so can jog on.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,758

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    Thats pretty grim all around.
    Note “swing voters” though, so people who presumably voted Tory last time. A sizeable chunk of the electorate but not necessarily representative.

    The optics are driving this. The power of the media at work. If 5x as many refugees were making it to Britain through a European resettlement scheme and being assessed in source countries, there would be no pictures of boats on beaches, no overcrowded Manston centre, and probably little or no public attention paid to the issue.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,626

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    Really hard to know what to do about this. This has obviously occurred under the Conservatives' watch and yet they will reap a political reward because they can talk tough and Labour can't.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434
    rkrkrk said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    Really hard to know what to do about this. This has obviously occurred under the Conservatives' watch and yet they will reap a political reward because they can talk tough and Labour can't.
    It's Gresham's Law applied to politics. Bad politicians drive out good ones.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    Yep, exactly how you, @Leon, @MaxPB and I have been saying.

    Politicians and established Liberati absolutely don't get it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    Won't happen.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    I’m sure @foxy and @roger told us that most of the shivering Albanians are poor enslaved women?


    Oh

    “The BBC has heard evidence that Albanian drug gangs are using the migrant camps of northern France as a recruitment ground, offering to pay the passage of those prepared to work in the UK drugs industry on arrival
    .
    Albanians account for around a third of the almost 40,000 people who have arrived in small boats so far this year, according to UK government figures.

    The UK government says 12,000 Albanians have arrived by small boat this year, almost all of them young men travelling alone.

    He estimates that a majority of the young men he met in the Dunkirk camp planned to work in the Albanian cannabis and cocaine networks in the UK.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63488070

    What happens when a society has an insatiable desire for narcotics and insists on making them illegal.
    And so somehow it’s our fault, yet again

    Is there a single issue where left wing people instinctively side with Britain and the British people, rather than Anyone Else?

    You guys are contemptible and I hope you contrive to lose the next election despite being 20 points ahead of a clown troupe. Ugh
    You've probably been personally responsible for propping up half the black economy over the years so can jog on.
    Please continue. Your reflexive attitude of Fuck the Evil British, Help the Poor Albanians Coke Dealers could indeed lose you the next election, despite the grotesque inadequacy of the Tories

    You just can’t help it. You hate your own country and your own people. The British are inferior and they voted for Brexit and they deserve to have 900,000 illegal Albanians hosted in every one of their stupid Brexity towns. That’s what you think, deep down.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,903

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    Won't happen.
    Is that an argument for cancelling it, or an argument not to?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,359
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    I’m sure @foxy and @roger told us that most of the shivering Albanians are poor enslaved women?


    Oh

    “The BBC has heard evidence that Albanian drug gangs are using the migrant camps of northern France as a recruitment ground, offering to pay the passage of those prepared to work in the UK drugs industry on arrival
    .
    Albanians account for around a third of the almost 40,000 people who have arrived in small boats so far this year, according to UK government figures.

    The UK government says 12,000 Albanians have arrived by small boat this year, almost all of them young men travelling alone.

    He estimates that a majority of the young men he met in the Dunkirk camp planned to work in the Albanian cannabis and cocaine networks in the UK.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63488070

    What happens when a society has an insatiable desire for narcotics and insists on making them illegal.
    And so somehow it’s our fault, yet again

    Is there a single issue where left wing people instinctively side with Britain and the British people, rather than Anyone Else?

    You guys are contemptible and I hope you contrive to lose the next election despite being 20 points ahead of a clown troupe. Ugh
    So your argument is that unless we're reflexively xenophobic to the extent of abandoning sensible approaches to hard problems in favour of "Rwanda", then we're "against Britain" ?

    You're daft.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,924
    TimS said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    Thats pretty grim all around.
    Note “swing voters” though, so people who presumably voted Tory last time. A sizeable chunk of the electorate but not necessarily representative.

    The optics are driving this. The power of the media at work. If 5x as many refugees were making it to Britain through a European resettlement scheme and being assessed in source countries, there would be no pictures of boats on beaches, no overcrowded Manston centre, and probably little or no public attention paid to the issue.
    How awful that the “powerful media” are actually reporting what’s actually happening. Thousands of young men illegally crossing the channel every week, and being housed in Novotels

    If only you could censor this as fake news, or something



  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,758
    The conservatives do have an incredible ability to hypnotise the voters.

    “Look, we’ve utterly messed up our asylum system just like we messed up health, education and policing. We are outraged at this and so should you be. It’s all Labour’s fault”. And it works.

    They’ll do the same on the economy: “we f*cked up big time and left you poorer and more insecure. So you’d better vote for us because Labour won’t transform the economy for the better overnight”.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,197
    Leon said:

    We are insane. If this continues all the young men in Albania will move to the UK - illegally

    From that BBC report

    “Laknas lies on the flight path from Albania to France. Passenger jets zoom over the still and empty town: over its small mosque framed by half-built blocks and shuttered houses; over its deserted café.

    Shopkeepers gather in the quiet road to complain that their business is unviable.
    A pair of cows mumble away at the grass by the still main road.

    "They're all I have left," their owner says. "My children have gone to England."

    Residents here say 70% of the local population has already left for the UK. And the departures haven't stopped.”

    We are insane.

    The primary objective of almost any senior professional you care to mention in law, the media, the civil service or politics is to loudly signal their compassion about refugees to each other out of social anxiety about themselves and a fear of appearing BNP-like.

    This trumps everything.

    It's how Wokery has real world effects.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,333

    Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belize:

    #Belize is not in negotiations with the #UK or any other country to accept #migrants. We will not agree to accept exported migrants. That is inhumane and contrary to #InternationalLaw.

    https://twitter.com/ecourtbzeeamon/status/1587956771750137856?s=46&t=0gmgzEFNaR4p_Lta4d39UQ

    Excellent negotiation tactics to be fair.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1588462874070257665

    Latest @JLPartnersPolls @TimesRadio swing voter focus group on immigration:

    🔵 All said Britain is ‘full’ and ‘at capacity’, politicians ‘don’t get it’
    🔵 Blame on immigration for problems with NHS, housing
    🔵 Said Braverman’s description of ‘invasion’ was accurate
    🔵 Felt that PM was wrong to appoint ‘naughty’ Braverman but she ‘has good ideas’
    🔵 Current Channel situation ‘unfair’ with Brits in poverty
    🔵 Tories handling it badly - but most said they would trust them more on immigration than Labour

    I’m sure @foxy and @roger told us that most of the shivering Albanians are poor enslaved women?


    Oh

    “The BBC has heard evidence that Albanian drug gangs are using the migrant camps of northern France as a recruitment ground, offering to pay the passage of those prepared to work in the UK drugs industry on arrival
    .
    Albanians account for around a third of the almost 40,000 people who have arrived in small boats so far this year, according to UK government figures.

    The UK government says 12,000 Albanians have arrived by small boat this year, almost all of them young men travelling alone.

    He estimates that a majority of the young men he met in the Dunkirk camp planned to work in the Albanian cannabis and cocaine networks in the UK.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63488070

    What happens when a society has an insatiable desire for narcotics and insists on making them illegal.
    And so somehow it’s our fault, yet again

    Is there a single issue where left wing people instinctively side with Britain and the British people, rather than Anyone Else?

    You guys are contemptible and I hope you contrive to lose the next election despite being 20 points ahead of a clown troupe. Ugh
    You've probably been personally responsible for propping up half the black economy over the years so can jog on.
    Please continue. Your reflexive attitude of Fuck the Evil British, Help the Poor Albanians Coke Dealers could indeed lose you the next election, despite the grotesque inadequacy of the Tories

    You just can’t help it. You hate your own country and your own people. The British are inferior and they voted for Brexit and they deserve to have 900,000 illegal Albanians hosted in every one of their stupid Brexity towns. That’s what you think, deep down.
    How are your plans to relocate to the Mediterranean going?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,913

    Andy_JS said:

    Not sure cancelling the new Sizewell power station is a good idea.

    Won't happen.
    The power station, or the cancellation of it?

    If it’s to be cancelled, then at least announcing what will replace it at the same time, might be seen as good politics at a time of record high energy bills!
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