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The next cabinet minister to go – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
imageThe next cabinet minister to go – politicalbetting.com

Looking at this market from William Hill on the next cabinet member to leave I can understand why the disgraced national security risk Suella Braverman is the favourite but my money and value is on Ben Wallace at 25/1.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,581
    edited October 27
    Sunak slashes Labour's lead with YouGov from 37% to 28%.



    [Sunak] trailed Starmer by 34 to 30 when voters were asked who would make the best prime minister, with 33 per cent saying they were not sure.

    After the implosion of her mini-budget, Truss had trailed Starmer by 42-13 on the same measure.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-pm-rishi-sunak-gets-polls-bounce-h9hxl7rss
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864
  • Sunak slashes Labour's lead with YouGov from 37% to 28%.



    [Sunak] trailed Starmer by 34 to 30 when voters were asked who would make the best prime minister, with 33 per cent saying they were not sure.

    After the implosion of her mini-budget, Truss had trailed Starmer by 42-13 on the same measure.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-pm-rishi-sunak-gets-polls-bounce-h9hxl7rss

    Not exactly a huge bounce back.

    Is the next headline 'Rishi slashes next Labour majority from 400 to 325"?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,365
    Leon said:
    Comic voiceovers used to be the best part of Mock the Week (RIP) but stopped a few series ago.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,365
    Not sure about Ben Wallace leaving. Liz Truss had already kicked the 3% Defence Spending pledge out by a decade. The value might be with the obvious favourite, Suella Braverman. I'm not a great fan of these markets because it is a short-term bet that often ties up (and wastes) money in the longer term when the expected departure does not happen.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,365
    Who else is there who might leave early? Jeremy Hunt, if the ex-Chancellor next door wants to write the budget himself. Steve Barclay at Health, if Sunak insists on the £10 missed appointment fee which, while well intentioned, looks impractical.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    Agree that the odds on Wallace are good value at 25/1. But I think he is the type who will use his position to stay and fight.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    Sunak slashes Labour's lead with YouGov from 37% to 28%.



    [Sunak] trailed Starmer by 34 to 30 when voters were asked who would make the best prime minister, with 33 per cent saying they were not sure.

    After the implosion of her mini-budget, Truss had trailed Starmer by 42-13 on the same measure.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-pm-rishi-sunak-gets-polls-bounce-h9hxl7rss

    Best PM ratings point to a hung parliament with Labour as largest party at the next election, IMHO.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    On topic, this isn't the sort of market I play.

    It's roulette wheel style political betting.

    No bet.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    I am on Wallace for a quid.

    The value is probably on Cruela. She just cannot resist screwing up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Who else is there who might leave early? Jeremy Hunt, if the ex-Chancellor next door wants to write the budget himself. Steve Barclay at Health, if Sunak insists on the £10 missed appointment fee which, while well intentioned, looks impractical.

    If they're introducing that, should go both ways.

    £10 charge if you miss an appointment, £10 paid if the GP is running more than 30 minutes late for a routine appointment.
  • The Jake Berry intervention yesterday makes the Braverman cling-on even spicier. I suggested that stuff would get leaked proving that Case et al told Sunak very clearly why Cruella could not be let back in -we've now had the ex party Chair point to this stuff so we know that more embittered souls will ensure it gets out.

    Question is how much of a backbone will Sunak have. Losing your HS early looks bad, but if it stops the scandal and we get someone sensible in the story will recede very quickly.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    Foxy said:

    I am on Wallace for a quid.

    The value is probably on Cruela. She just cannot resist screwing up.

    I wonder if Hunt is slight value on the basis of "I came in to do a [short-term shoring up] job and I've done that job" (plus I'm resigned to never being PM).

    Although that would more likely make him third or fourth out, as that logic could well still outlast Braverman.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    ydoethur said:

    Who else is there who might leave early? Jeremy Hunt, if the ex-Chancellor next door wants to write the budget himself. Steve Barclay at Health, if Sunak insists on the £10 missed appointment fee which, while well intentioned, looks impractical.

    If they're introducing that, should go both ways.

    £10 charge if you miss an appointment, £10 paid if the GP is running more than 30 minutes late for a routine appointment.
    The corollary of that would need to be no urgent patients seen, and no appointment to last longer than scheduled, even if the patient is dying. Next!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395
    edited October 27

    Sunak slashes Labour's lead with YouGov from 37% to 28%.



    [Sunak] trailed Starmer by 34 to 30 when voters were asked who would make the best prime minister, with 33 per cent saying they were not sure.

    After the implosion of her mini-budget, Truss had trailed Starmer by 42-13 on the same measure.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-pm-rishi-sunak-gets-polls-bounce-h9hxl7rss

    Some previous Tory Don’t Knows going home, presumably. I think we’ll get a better idea of the real lie of the land post-Christmas.

    The best PM ratings will become more meaningful if: (1) the Tories really start eating into the Labour lead; (2) Sunak pulls way ahead of Starmer, but the Labour lead remains quite high as that will indicate stuff happening under the bonnet. Again, we’ll get a better idea on that post-Christmas.

    Right now, voters seem sick and tired of Conservative government. Who runs it is less significant. That’s the bit that really matters. And that’s one reason why the Braverman appointment and all the other old faces was so politically inept - it just says more of the same. Sunak has to change this narrative. It will be tough but it’s not impossible. Starmer is not Blair. Not many are.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Who else is there who might leave early? Jeremy Hunt, if the ex-Chancellor next door wants to write the budget himself. Steve Barclay at Health, if Sunak insists on the £10 missed appointment fee which, while well intentioned, looks impractical.

    If they're introducing that, should go both ways.

    £10 charge if you miss an appointment, £10 paid if the GP is running more than 30 minutes late for a routine appointment.
    The corollary of that would need to be no urgent patients seen, and no appointment to last longer than scheduled, even if the patient is dying. Next!
    Or alternatively, you have people doing appointments and people to cascade more serious cases to.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930
    Whatever happened to that story about Zahawi being under fraud investigation?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,150
    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.


    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Who else is there who might leave early? Jeremy Hunt, if the ex-Chancellor next door wants to write the budget himself. Steve Barclay at Health, if Sunak insists on the £10 missed appointment fee which, while well intentioned, looks impractical.

    If they're introducing that, should go both ways.

    £10 charge if you miss an appointment, £10 paid if the GP is running more than 30 minutes late for a routine appointment.
    The corollary of that would need to be no urgent patients seen, and no appointment to last longer than scheduled, even if the patient is dying. Next!
    Or alternatively, you have people doing appointments and people to cascade more serious cases to.
    Er, isn't that the definition of the GP/consultant system already?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    moonshine said:

    Whatever happened to that story about Zahawi being under fraud investigation?

    He's on telly right now defending Braverman
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 27
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Who else is there who might leave early? Jeremy Hunt, if the ex-Chancellor next door wants to write the budget himself. Steve Barclay at Health, if Sunak insists on the £10 missed appointment fee which, while well intentioned, looks impractical.

    If they're introducing that, should go both ways.

    £10 charge if you miss an appointment, £10 paid if the GP is running more than 30 minutes late for a routine appointment.
    The corollary of that would need to be no urgent patients seen, and no appointment to last longer than scheduled, even if the patient is dying. Next!
    Or alternatively, you have people doing appointments and people to cascade more serious cases to.
    Er, isn't that the definition of the GP/consultant system already?
    Not really, or at least not round here. They don't have the 'people doing appointments' part.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Fair play to Sunak

    Between Chancellor, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary by keeping all of Truss's appointees he's managed to stock them with a no hoper and the only 2 people he beat in head-to-head polling back in the Summer.

    Maybe he is better at politics than I gave him credit for.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    Wallace resigning would plunge Sunak's government into deep crisis. Wallace really doesn't want to give up his job, and wants government support for NATO Secretary General.

    My prediction is that negotiations will be tough, but a deal will be made because both sides have much more to lose from not doing a deal.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864
    edited October 27
    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Wallace resigning would plunge Sunak's government into deep crisis. Wallace really doesn't want to give up his job, and wants government support for NATO Secretary General.

    My prediction is that negotiations will be tough, but a deal will be made because both sides have much more to lose from not doing a deal.

    Is he *that* big a catch as NATO Secretary General?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,855
    moonshine said:

    Whatever happened to that story about Zahawi being under fraud investigation?

    I don't know, but there is this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/26/charity-founded-by-jeremy-hunt-patient-safety-watch-chief-executive-adam-smith

    "A charity founded by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, paid more than £110,000 – two-thirds of its income – to his former political adviser Adam Smith, who lost his job over a lobbying scandal."
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,474
    edited October 27

    Wallace resigning would plunge Sunak's government into deep crisis. Wallace really doesn't want to give up his job, and wants government support for NATO Secretary General.

    My prediction is that negotiations will be tough, but a deal will be made because both sides have much more to lose from not doing a deal.

    Wallace has no chance of the NATO job. The next SecGen will have to be Eastern European, a woman and on good terms with the EU. Kallas maybe?

    Also, the lumbering oaf hasn't really demonstrated anything that indicates he'd be any good at it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    ydoethur said:

    Wallace resigning would plunge Sunak's government into deep crisis. Wallace really doesn't want to give up his job, and wants government support for NATO Secretary General.

    My prediction is that negotiations will be tough, but a deal will be made because both sides have much more to lose from not doing a deal.

    Is he *that* big a catch as NATO Secretary General?
    If not then having British government support is all the more important.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    With record numbers of people entering the UK in dinghies crossing the Channel it turns out that since leaving the EU we have LESS control of our borders. More evidence that #Brexit was built on lies sold by charlatans.

    https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1585321325668667393
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,177
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Who else is there who might leave early? Jeremy Hunt, if the ex-Chancellor next door wants to write the budget himself. Steve Barclay at Health, if Sunak insists on the £10 missed appointment fee which, while well intentioned, looks impractical.

    If they're introducing that, should go both ways.

    £10 charge if you miss an appointment, £10 paid if the GP is running more than 30 minutes late for a routine appointment.
    The corollary of that would need to be no urgent patients seen, and no appointment to last longer than scheduled, even if the patient is dying. Next!
    Our GP practice. “Here’s your tenner. Now f**k off.”

  • Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Rwanda only works if we catch all the bats - which we don't. If Rwanda actually take anyone - which they won't. And the deterrent message deters migrants - which it hasn't.

    Instead of pursuing this BNP policy, why not engage with policies that will actually work:
    1 Create legal routes for people to claim asylum
    2 Go gangbusters on companies employing illegals
    3 Co-operate with the French and EU on managing the situation

    Foaming at the mouth dreaming of drowning people in the channel is not a policy. No matter how many semis it generates with Tory party members.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,540
    Dura_Ace said:

    Wallace resigning would plunge Sunak's government into deep crisis. Wallace really doesn't want to give up his job, and wants government support for NATO Secretary General.

    My prediction is that negotiations will be tough, but a deal will be made because both sides have much more to lose from not doing a deal.

    Wallace has no chance of the NATO job. The next SecGen will have to be Eastern European, a woman and on good terms with the EU. Kallas maybe?

    Also, the lumbering oaf hasn't really demonstrated anything that indicates he'd be any good at it.
    You might know that to be true, and you might be right, but Wallace may not think so, and it's only what he believes to be true that is important in this situation.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Is it possible? Can it be true? Will today be a quiet day in politics? 🤞 Might get some work done.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Excl: MI5 will give Suella Braverman lessons on what information she can and can't share and how to avoid future security breaches:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mi5-security-lessons-for-leaky-sue-wtws56pxd

    Home Office source said the briefing was part of “ensuring the department can abide by its statutory duties.” 

    They said Braverman had regularly shared sensitive government information on her personal phone and email. “She never used her work phone."

    Braverman has been nicknamed “leaky Sue” by government insiders but sources close to her insisted she is “very careful and conscious” of her responsibility to protect sensitive information and dismissed the nickname as “an invention of the last few days”.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Who else is there who might leave early? Jeremy Hunt, if the ex-Chancellor next door wants to write the budget himself. Steve Barclay at Health, if Sunak insists on the £10 missed appointment fee which, while well intentioned, looks impractical.

    If they're introducing that, should go both ways.

    £10 charge if you miss an appointment, £10 paid if the GP is running more than 30 minutes late for a routine appointment.
    The corollary of that would need to be no urgent patients seen, and no appointment to last longer than scheduled, even if the patient is dying. Next!
    Or alternatively, you have people doing appointments and people to cascade more serious cases to.
    Ah, so a lot of spare capacity in the system. Why has no one thought of that before?

    In the real world WTE GP numbers are lower, yet they are 20% more people having appointments and they are not allowed to close their patient lists. You simply cannot fit a quart into a pint pot.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Rwanda only works if we catch all the bats - which we don't. If Rwanda actually take anyone - which they won't. And the deterrent message deters migrants - which it hasn't.

    Instead of pursuing this BNP policy, why not engage with policies that will actually work:
    1 Create legal routes for people to claim asylum
    2 Go gangbusters on companies employing illegals
    3 Co-operate with the French and EU on managing the situation

    Foaming at the mouth dreaming of drowning people in the channel is not a policy. No matter how many semis it generates with Tory party members.
    God, you’re tediously predictable. And stupid
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    kamski said:

    moonshine said:

    Whatever happened to that story about Zahawi being under fraud investigation?

    I don't know, but there is this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/26/charity-founded-by-jeremy-hunt-patient-safety-watch-chief-executive-adam-smith

    "A charity founded by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, paid more than £110,000 – two-thirds of its income – to his former political adviser Adam Smith, who lost his job over a lobbying scandal."
    That summary does not mention the very germane point that Mr Hunt is reportedly (in the same piece) still involved with the charity, as a trustee.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Jonathan said:

    Is it possible? Can it be true? Will today be a quiet day in politics? 🤞 Might get some work done.

    It's...possible I suppose. But there are so many Tories just itching to detonate.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,855
    Carnyx said:

    kamski said:

    moonshine said:

    Whatever happened to that story about Zahawi being under fraud investigation?

    I don't know, but there is this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/26/charity-founded-by-jeremy-hunt-patient-safety-watch-chief-executive-adam-smith

    "A charity founded by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, paid more than £110,000 – two-thirds of its income – to his former political adviser Adam Smith, who lost his job over a lobbying scandal."
    That summary does not mention the very germane point that Mr Hunt is reportedly (in the same piece) still involved with the charity, as a trustee.
    If the Guardian piece is accurate, it does seem to stink. Would this be bigger news if there wasn't so much else going on?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395
    Sunak seems to be saying that only Braverman can deliver on immigration and Rwanda. So what happens when she doesn’t? It’s terrible politics to invest so much in one desperately flawed, inexperienced and entirely self-centred individual who gives no impression of competence.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    Dura_Ace said:

    Wallace resigning would plunge Sunak's government into deep crisis. Wallace really doesn't want to give up his job, and wants government support for NATO Secretary General.

    My prediction is that negotiations will be tough, but a deal will be made because both sides have much more to lose from not doing a deal.

    Wallace has no chance of the NATO job. The next SecGen will have to be Eastern European, a woman and on good terms with the EU. Kallas maybe?

    Also, the lumbering oaf hasn't really demonstrated anything that indicates he'd be any good at it.
    Yes, but does the lumbering oaf have that much self knowledge ?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Scott_xP said:

    Excl: MI5 will give Suella Braverman lessons on what information she can and can't share and how to avoid future security breaches:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mi5-security-lessons-for-leaky-sue-wtws56pxd

    Home Office source said the briefing was part of “ensuring the department can abide by its statutory duties.” 

    They said Braverman had regularly shared sensitive government information on her personal phone and email. “She never used her work phone."

    Braverman has been nicknamed “leaky Sue” by government insiders but sources close to her insisted she is “very careful and conscious” of her responsibility to protect sensitive information and dismissed the nickname as “an invention of the last few days”.

    I like the fact that

    a) she doesn't deny the nickname and
    b) accidentally implies that, while she's been leaking for ages, the late arrival of the nickname indicates that she was only found out in the last week or so...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    You have got to be kidding me.

    What is that total loser Nick Gibb doing back as Schools minister?

    He's done it for years and he's done more damage than I would ever have imagined possible.

    He's more useless than Suella Braverman.

    Sunak simply hasn't shown any sense when picking his ministers. This is going to be a car crash.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,819
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.


    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Gosh, now there's a surprise.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 349
    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Wallace resigning would plunge Sunak's government into deep crisis. Wallace really doesn't want to give up his job, and wants government support for NATO Secretary General.

    My prediction is that negotiations will be tough, but a deal will be made because both sides have much more to lose from not doing a deal.

    Wallace has no chance of the NATO job. The next SecGen will have to be Eastern European, a woman and on good terms with the EU. Kallas maybe?

    Also, the lumbering oaf hasn't really demonstrated anything that indicates he'd be any good at it.
    I struggle to identify why people rate him. I suppose not being egregiously incompetent and performatively cruel does put him a step up from much of the cabinet, but it is a pretty low bar.
    It’s been said that the Republicans nominated Warren Harding for President because he looked like everyone’s idea of a President. I feel the same way about Wallace, he’s like a defence secretary from central casting. That bluff military manner and slightly Churchillian build seems reassuring to a certain type of Tory.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.


    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Gosh, now there's a surprise.
    Now, be fair to the poor chap. That was in the Truss era of ludicrous promise generation. Since Year Zero (i.e. the day after Braverman's first resignation) we are asked to believe that it is as if no one ever did or said anything previously, except that which was written in the 2019 Tory Manifesto - the holy writ from which the Glorious Mandate derives.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,474
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    If they claim asylum then it's not easy to quickly deport them and they just disappear into the Deliveroo economy. There was an article in the Guardian (I think) recently about a couple of stupid arseholes who didn't claim asylum and they found themselves on Jet2 back to Mother Theresa International in Tirana very quickly. When they do get deported they get a Schengen Zone ban which makes a second attempt much more expensive and difficult.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    edited October 27
    kamski said:

    Carnyx said:

    kamski said:

    moonshine said:

    Whatever happened to that story about Zahawi being under fraud investigation?

    I don't know, but there is this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/26/charity-founded-by-jeremy-hunt-patient-safety-watch-chief-executive-adam-smith

    "A charity founded by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, paid more than £110,000 – two-thirds of its income – to his former political adviser Adam Smith, who lost his job over a lobbying scandal."
    That summary does not mention the very germane point that Mr Hunt is reportedly (in the same piece) still involved with the charity, as a trustee.
    If the Guardian piece is accurate, it does seem to stink. Would this be bigger news if there wasn't so much else going on?
    Edit: I'm not sure. Matters seem too open for that conclusion.

    'Hunt part funds the charity but it also solicits donations from the public on its website.'

    'It was established in 2019 to conduct research [on patient safety issues], but appears to have produced no papers since then. [...] Its main output appears to be a blog and publishing newsletters from Hunt in his capacity as founder and trustee of the charity. The annual accounts explain that the charity chose not to publish its research – some of which has been completed – while the NHS remained under significant Covid-related pressure and it would do so “when the climate is right”.'

    You do need time to do and write up research, to be fair, but three years on is beginning to push it. That covid excuse is looking a bit odd for a Tory operation (unless they are being more realistic than some). Yet why keep shtum on patient safety?

    There's also the possibility that the website has simply not been kept up to date or accurate - it is not clear to me how much digging the Graun did beyond that. But an obsolete website content is asking for trouble, as with any charity that makes that mistake.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,807
    Lol! Zahawi’s explanation for Braverman coming back so soon is that “politics nowadays moves at breakneck speed”!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Stereodog said:

    Foxy said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Wallace resigning would plunge Sunak's government into deep crisis. Wallace really doesn't want to give up his job, and wants government support for NATO Secretary General.

    My prediction is that negotiations will be tough, but a deal will be made because both sides have much more to lose from not doing a deal.

    Wallace has no chance of the NATO job. The next SecGen will have to be Eastern European, a woman and on good terms with the EU. Kallas maybe?

    Also, the lumbering oaf hasn't really demonstrated anything that indicates he'd be any good at it.
    I struggle to identify why people rate him. I suppose not being egregiously incompetent and performatively cruel does put him a step up from much of the cabinet, but it is a pretty low bar.
    It’s been said that the Republicans nominated Warren Harding for President because he looked like everyone’s idea of a President. I feel the same way about Wallace, he’s like a defence secretary from central casting. That bluff military manner and slightly Churchillian build seems reassuring to a certain type of Tory.
    Isn't it fairly easy to massage a deal on this? The target is 3% by 2030. That may as well be a hundred years away as far as public spending envelopes go. End of the next parliament potentially. Just agree that is the plan and move on.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
    It is curious that the current approach is 180 degrees opposite to the approach Tories cheered a few weeks ago. The coalition against growth I think they used to call this. It’s amazing how a political party can pivot so quickly to argue that black is white.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    mwadams said:

    Now, be fair to the poor chap. That was in the Truss era of ludicrous promise generation. Since Year Zero (i.e. the day after Braverman's first resignation) we are asked to believe that it is as if no one ever did or said anything previously, except that which was written in the 2019 Tory Manifesto - the holy writ from which the Glorious Mandate derives.

    Rishi Sunak's love of the 2019 Tory manifesto is clearly an attempt to address the "mandate" issue. It also gives PM cover to drop bad Truss policies, eg fracking. But it is not holy writ. That's why RS allies studiously talk of the "promise OF the manifesto", not promises IN it.

    https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1585528907016577026
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    If they claim asylum then it's not easy to quickly deport them and they just disappear into the Deliveroo economy. There was an article in the Guardian (I think) recently about a couple of stupid arseholes who didn't claim asylum and they found themselves on Jet2 back to Mother Theresa International in Tirana very quickly. When they do get deported they get a Schengen Zone ban which makes a second attempt much more expensive and difficult.
    Don't a large number simply disappear into the shadow economy without any such interactions ?

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395
    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
    Giving ministers untramelled power to create new law without detailed Parliamentary scrutiny is a disastrous idea and profoundly anti-democratic. If there are advantageous, post-Brexit regulatory freedoms to exploit present them to Parliament in the form of legislation. What an individual minister sees as freedom may not look like it to anyone else.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    We regret to inform you that Comrade Rees-Mogg has been sent to the salt mines. https://thecritic.co.uk/potemkin-politburo/ https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1585324887098331136/photo/1


  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,644
    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    5% chance of ending in Africa? So 95% chance of success? People are shit at probability anyway, so I think that would not stop them. Besides, a lot of those in Calais seem to believe untruths about the UK as it is, Why should they believe they will end in Rwanda, when no-one has ended up in Rwanda?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
    Nothing he says rules out cherrypicking the really juicy regulatory freedoms - workers' rights and so on.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551
    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
    It’s not that easy to just get rid of a bunch of laws overnight . And hardly a vote winner to tell workers you’re going to lose some of your protections. Anyway just file this under politician says something to try and get elected and then dumps it ! Pretty much everything promised by Vote Leave has never seen the light of day .

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 21,507
    edited October 27
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Rwanda only works if we catch all the bats - which we don't. If Rwanda actually take anyone - which they won't. And the deterrent message deters migrants - which it hasn't.

    Instead of pursuing this BNP policy, why not engage with policies that will actually work:
    1 Create legal routes for people to claim asylum
    2 Go gangbusters on companies employing illegals
    3 Co-operate with the French and EU on managing the situation

    Foaming at the mouth dreaming of drowning people in the channel is not a policy. No matter how many semis it generates with Tory party members.
    God, you’re tediously predictable. And stupid
    I'm quoting reality:
    No legal way to claim asylum here for the nations who make up the biggest boat people flows
    No agreement with Rwanda to actually send actual people

    Apart from that your grand plan is spot on. Though being called stupid by you is like being called similar by Corbynites - grin inducing comedy...
  • Sunak seems to be saying that only Braverman can deliver on immigration and Rwanda. So what happens when she doesn’t? It’s terrible politics to invest so much in one desperately flawed, inexperienced and entirely self-centred individual who gives no impression of competence.

    Ah ok, I get it now:
    Braverman controversially appointed. The only person who can make this policy work
    Braverman and the policy fail
    Braverman fired, policy dropped and its failure hung around her neck

    Is Sunak that smart?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353
    IanB2 said:

    Lol! Zahawi’s explanation for Braverman coming back so soon is that “politics nowadays moves at breakneck speed”!

    Tbf Nads knows of what he speaks.


  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    5% chance of ending in Africa? So 95% chance of success? People are shit at probability anyway, so I think that would not stop them. Besides, a lot of those in Calais seem to believe untruths about the UK as it is, Why should they believe they will end in Rwanda, when no-one has ended up in Rwanda?
    I thought potential deportees to Rwanda were always to be given the choice of just returning to their country of origin. I don’t see how you couldn’t have that as a choice. So, presumably in said cases, the individuals concerned will just go back to Albania anyway.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    5% chance of ending in Africa? So 95% chance of success? People are shit at probability anyway, so I think that would not stop them. Besides, a lot of those in Calais seem to believe untruths about the UK as it is, Why should they believe they will end in Rwanda, when no-one has ended up in Rwanda?
    I'm now completely confused. Is the Rwanda policy a truth or an untruth? Like bloody moggies cooped up with Geiger-Mueller tubes in closed boxes.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697
    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
    It is curious that the current approach is 180 degrees opposite to the approach Tories cheered a few weeks ago. The coalition against growth I think they used to call this. It’s amazing how a political party can pivot so quickly to argue that black is white.
    The Truss and Krazi said that the economic policies of the past 12 years were a bag of shit.

    Now Rishi Rich and *unt have opened the bag and tipped it out onto the living room carpet.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 148
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Rwanda only works if we catch all the bats - which we don't. If Rwanda actually take anyone - which they won't. And the deterrent message deters migrants - which it hasn't.

    Instead of pursuing this BNP policy, why not engage with policies that will actually work:
    1 Create legal routes for people to claim asylum
    2 Go gangbusters on companies employing illegals
    3 Co-operate with the French and EU on managing the situation

    Foaming at the mouth dreaming of drowning people in the channel is not a policy. No matter how many semis it generates with Tory party members.
    God, you’re tediously predictable. And stupid
    Ad hominem attacks are always most revealing when, depending on your politics, they can apply equally to the person writing them as the person they're meant to be directed at.

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    5% chance of ending in Africa? So 95% chance of success? People are shit at probability anyway, so I think that would not stop them. Besides, a lot of those in Calais seem to believe untruths about the UK as it is, Why should they believe they will end in Rwanda, when no-one has ended up in Rwanda?
    Quite. The benchmark for risk tolerance here is, people smoke. I would run a 10% risk for the chances which open up on a successful crossing. At 1 in 20 I would play Russian roulette for a decent payoff. It has to be a stone cold certainty which means recruiting and paying for at least 10s of 000s of new border force bods and buying them RIBs and helicopters and all sorts. And a whole new ministry of Information thinking about it because you have to successfully and simultaneously sell 2 messages: to the public and libs, Look at the light, bright, hygienic accommodation our deportees are welcomed to in Rwanda, and to potential crossers: you will pray for death after 24 hours of what Kigali has lined up for you.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 37,395

    Sunak seems to be saying that only Braverman can deliver on immigration and Rwanda. So what happens when she doesn’t? It’s terrible politics to invest so much in one desperately flawed, inexperienced and entirely self-centred individual who gives no impression of competence.

    Ah ok, I get it now:
    Braverman controversially appointed. The only person who can make this policy work
    Braverman and the policy fail
    Braverman fired, policy dropped and its failure hung around her neck

    Is Sunak that smart?
    He is not that strong. He will be crucified if he drops Rwanda.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,930

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
    It is curious that the current approach is 180 degrees opposite to the approach Tories cheered a few weeks ago. The coalition against growth I think they used to call this. It’s amazing how a political party can pivot so quickly to argue that black is white.
    The Truss and Krazi said that the economic policies of the past 12 years were a bag of shit.

    Now Rishi Rich and *unt have opened the bag and tipped it out onto the living room carpet.
    The economic policies of the last 21 years have been a bag of shit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864
    Ishmael_Z said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    5% chance of ending in Africa? So 95% chance of success? People are shit at probability anyway, so I think that would not stop them. Besides, a lot of those in Calais seem to believe untruths about the UK as it is, Why should they believe they will end in Rwanda, when no-one has ended up in Rwanda?
    Quite. The benchmark for risk tolerance here is, people smoke. I would run a 10% risk for the chances which open up on a successful crossing. At 1 in 20 I would play Russian roulette for a decent payoff. It has to be a stone cold certainty which means recruiting and paying for at least 10s of 000s of new border force bods and buying them RIBs and helicopters and all sorts. And a whole new ministry of Information thinking about it because you have to successfully and simultaneously sell 2 messages: to the public and libs, Look at the light, bright, hygienic accommodation our deportees are welcomed to in Rwanda, and to potential crossers: you will pray for death after 24 hours of what Kigali has lined up for you.
    And your solution is?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Carnyx said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    5% chance of ending in Africa? So 95% chance of success? People are shit at probability anyway, so I think that would not stop them. Besides, a lot of those in Calais seem to believe untruths about the UK as it is, Why should they believe they will end in Rwanda, when no-one has ended up in Rwanda?
    I'm now completely confused. Is the Rwanda policy a truth or an untruth? Like bloody moggies cooped up with Geiger-Mueller tubes in closed boxes.
    Think of it as a Potemkin policy.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,576
    kamski said:

    moonshine said:

    Whatever happened to that story about Zahawi being under fraud investigation?

    I don't know, but there is this:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/26/charity-founded-by-jeremy-hunt-patient-safety-watch-chief-executive-adam-smith

    "A charity founded by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, paid more than £110,000 – two-thirds of its income – to his former political adviser Adam Smith, who lost his job over a lobbying scandal."
    Shouldn't Adam Smith be his economics adviser?

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    If they claim asylum then it's not easy to quickly deport them and they just disappear into the Deliveroo economy. There was an article in the Guardian (I think) recently about a couple of stupid arseholes who didn't claim asylum and they found themselves on Jet2 back to Mother Theresa International in Tirana very quickly. When they do get deported they get a Schengen Zone ban which makes a second attempt much more expensive and difficult.
    Then, the rules for claiming asylum need to be tightened so its more than just "because I say so".

    It's a massive gaping loophole.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Sunak seems to be saying that only Braverman can deliver on immigration and Rwanda. So what happens when she doesn’t? It’s terrible politics to invest so much in one desperately flawed, inexperienced and entirely self-centred individual who gives no impression of competence.

    Ah ok, I get it now:
    Braverman controversially appointed. The only person who can make this policy work
    Braverman and the policy fail
    Braverman fired, policy dropped and its failure hung around her neck

    Is Sunak that smart?
    As his junior ministerial appointments show he is a terrible judge of character. Ulysses S. Grant 1868 model style terrible.

    So no, he's not that smart. He's just showing he doesn't know how to pick good options.

    About the only thing to be said in his defence is that the Tories are running out of halfway capable options which is why you have such an unpleasant mixture of retreads and retards.

    Labour have a similar problem, which makes me uneasy. But at least they would be different.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,353
    edited October 27
    Another election in NI?
    Will the DUP reap the electoral rewards for being obstructive, petulant rsoles, ie a violent kick up the hoop?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864
    We are so pathetic we have allowed 10,000 Albanian men to just sail the Channel and ‘claim asylum’, from a European country. This is desperate and pitiful

    It also laughs hard in the face of the many many thousands of people who spend years and money trying to claim citizenship - legally. Fuck it. Just cross the Channel and dump your passport. Sorted. The French will wave you on your way. Why take the legal route?

    This scandal is only going to get bigger until a government gets tough
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697
    These lads from Albania.

    Can they not be put to work as an Army of Loft Laggers?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
    It is curious that the current approach is 180 degrees opposite to the approach Tories cheered a few weeks ago. The coalition against growth I think they used to call this. It’s amazing how a political party can pivot so quickly to argue that black is white.
    To be fair, that's why the Conservative Party is the most successful political party in the western world.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864

    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    If they claim asylum then it's not easy to quickly deport them and they just disappear into the Deliveroo economy. There was an article in the Guardian (I think) recently about a couple of stupid arseholes who didn't claim asylum and they found themselves on Jet2 back to Mother Theresa International in Tirana very quickly. When they do get deported they get a Schengen Zone ban which makes a second attempt much more expensive and difficult.
    Then, the rules for claiming asylum need to be tightened so its more than just "because I say so".

    It's a massive gaping loophole.
    Indeed. As Sunak himself said: the definition of asylum needs to be drastically tightened. It was meant for a different world. Enough
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    That Piers Morgan interview about leaky Sue.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/PiersUncensored/status/1585361104062058508

    Regarding the Official Secrets Act, does a government minister have "lawful authority" to leak information if they subsequently resign for that leak ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    On topic, betting on first out requires you to decide who is going to have fucked up so badly they get shown the door first.

    Look at that list. It's a crap shoot.

    It will also likely be for something stupid/criminal they did before getting their job in the Rishi Cabinet, not for their performance in it. A question of what gets unearthed first.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    If they claim asylum then it's not easy to quickly deport them and they just disappear into the Deliveroo economy. There was an article in the Guardian (I think) recently about a couple of stupid arseholes who didn't claim asylum and they found themselves on Jet2 back to Mother Theresa International in Tirana very quickly. When they do get deported they get a Schengen Zone ban which makes a second attempt much more expensive and difficult.
    Then, the rules for claiming asylum need to be tightened so its more than just "because I say so".

    It's a massive gaping loophole.
    Indeed. As Sunak himself said: the definition of asylum needs to be drastically tightened. It was meant for a different world. Enough
    Perhaps that's the answer.

    'We need to sort out asylum!'

    'Fine, I'll put Braverman in it.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Nigelb said:

    That Piers Morgan interview about leaky Sue.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/PiersUncensored/status/1585361104062058508

    Regarding the Official Secrets Act, does a government minister have "lawful authority" to leak information if they subsequently resign for that leak ?

    Bernard Woolley would say no.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Rishi needs to be careful with the EU.

    They'll probably take saying he's ready to do a deal over the NI protocol as a sign of weakness and take concessions off the table as a result - try and push him.

    He needs to be very clear: no means no. A good deal yes, on terms that work for the UK.

    You've got to play hardball with these ideological bureaucrats.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    If they claim asylum then it's not easy to quickly deport them and they just disappear into the Deliveroo economy. There was an article in the Guardian (I think) recently about a couple of stupid arseholes who didn't claim asylum and they found themselves on Jet2 back to Mother Theresa International in Tirana very quickly. When they do get deported they get a Schengen Zone ban which makes a second attempt much more expensive and difficult.
    Then, the rules for claiming asylum need to be tightened so its more than just "because I say so".

    It's a massive gaping loophole.
    Indeed. As Sunak himself said: the definition of asylum needs to be drastically tightened. It was meant for a different world. Enough
    Perhaps that's the answer.

    'We need to sort out asylum!'

    'Fine, I'll put Braverman in it.'

    Not sure whether you’re joking. But I believe that is the intention. Withdraw from the ECHR. Redefine asylum
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Leon said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    5% chance of ending in Africa? So 95% chance of success? People are shit at probability anyway, so I think that would not stop them. Besides, a lot of those in Calais seem to believe untruths about the UK as it is, Why should they believe they will end in Rwanda, when no-one has ended up in Rwanda?
    Quite. The benchmark for risk tolerance here is, people smoke. I would run a 10% risk for the chances which open up on a successful crossing. At 1 in 20 I would play Russian roulette for a decent payoff. It has to be a stone cold certainty which means recruiting and paying for at least 10s of 000s of new border force bods and buying them RIBs and helicopters and all sorts. And a whole new ministry of Information thinking about it because you have to successfully and simultaneously sell 2 messages: to the public and libs, Look at the light, bright, hygienic accommodation our deportees are welcomed to in Rwanda, and to potential crossers: you will pray for death after 24 hours of what Kigali has lined up for you.
    And your solution is?
    Nobody said all problems have solutions. Cooperating with other countries along the supply chain would slow it down, but we are fucked by geography, technology and ethics. It's in some ways like COVID: poor old contrarian was advocating laissez faire where the old gonna die and the poor gonna starve for a year or so and we emerge a leaner, fitter, richer and less indebted nation. It wasn't a non-solution, but it wasn't a possible solution in the art-of-the-possible sense.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    If they claim asylum then it's not easy to quickly deport them and they just disappear into the Deliveroo economy. There was an article in the Guardian (I think) recently about a couple of stupid arseholes who didn't claim asylum and they found themselves on Jet2 back to Mother Theresa International in Tirana very quickly. When they do get deported they get a Schengen Zone ban which makes a second attempt much more expensive and difficult.
    Then, the rules for claiming asylum need to be tightened so its more than just "because I say so".

    It's a massive gaping loophole.
    The solution is to process asylum claims promptly, but that doesn’t happen any more because the Government starved the process of money, preferring instead its “Potemkin” policy (as per Ishmael) of Rwanda. As with the Republicans in the US, the Conservatives are more interested in how things look than in actually solving a problem.

    How does processing asylum claims quickly help if the scope for claiming asylum is insanely broad?

    We'd just be compelled to admit a lot of people very quickly.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644

    Another election in NI?
    Will the DUP reap the Electoral rewards for being obstructive, petulant rsoles, ie a violent kick up the hoop?

    That’s what one would hope will happen, although historically the DUP have long thrived in saying “No”! The last polling we have was in August and suggested not much change on the previous election (Alliance up a bit, but DUP steady). The important context is the Westminster’s government’s approach to the situation. Truss was being more conciliatory to the EU. Sunak, we don’t know yet.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,735
    edited October 27
    Leon said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    5% chance of ending in Africa? So 95% chance of success? People are shit at probability anyway, so I think that would not stop them. Besides, a lot of those in Calais seem to believe untruths about the UK as it is, Why should they believe they will end in Rwanda, when no-one has ended up in Rwanda?
    Quite. The benchmark for risk tolerance here is, people smoke. I would run a 10% risk for the chances which open up on a successful crossing. At 1 in 20 I would play Russian roulette for a decent payoff. It has to be a stone cold certainty which means recruiting and paying for at least 10s of 000s of new border force bods and buying them RIBs and helicopters and all sorts. And a whole new ministry of Information thinking about it because you have to successfully and simultaneously sell 2 messages: to the public and libs, Look at the light, bright, hygienic accommodation our deportees are welcomed to in Rwanda, and to potential crossers: you will pray for death after 24 hours of what Kigali has lined up for you.
    And your solution is?
    A couple of suggestions off the top of my head:

    1. ID cards

    2. Offer a route to citizenship in return for grassing on employers of illegal immigrants.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    If they claim asylum then it's not easy to quickly deport them and they just disappear into the Deliveroo economy. There was an article in the Guardian (I think) recently about a couple of stupid arseholes who didn't claim asylum and they found themselves on Jet2 back to Mother Theresa International in Tirana very quickly. When they do get deported they get a Schengen Zone ban which makes a second attempt much more expensive and difficult.
    Then, the rules for claiming asylum need to be tightened so its more than just "because I say so".

    It's a massive gaping loophole.
    Indeed. As Sunak himself said: the definition of asylum needs to be drastically tightened. It was meant for a different world. Enough
    Perhaps that's the answer.

    'We need to sort out asylum!'

    'Fine, I'll put Braverman in it.'

    Not sure whether you’re joking. But I believe that is the intention. Withdraw from the ECHR. Redefine asylum
    Reread it more carefully...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    edited October 27

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
    It is curious that the current approach is 180 degrees opposite to the approach Tories cheered a few weeks ago. The coalition against growth I think they used to call this. It’s amazing how a political party can pivot so quickly to argue that black is white.
    To be fair, that's why the Conservative Party is the most successful political party in the western world.
    It all sounds a little bit pointless. You're going nowhere if you march off in one direction and then march all the way back (repeat ad nauseam). Just a waste of everyone's time. No wonder the rest of the world is moving faster than us.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Well, now I've seen everything. Nohit Sharma reprieved on an LBW by an inside edge.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,091
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sandpit said:

    Rishi Sunak, the new British prime minister, has toned down his zeal for the speedy axing of EU legislation, amid warnings that such an exercise could tie up hundreds of civil servants at a time of national crisis.

    Sunak promised in August, during his first bid for the Conservative leadership, that he would create a new “Brexit delivery unit”, a pledge illustrated by a video of an official shredding EU laws to the strains of “Ode to Joy”, the European anthem.

    But Sunak’s aides admitted on Wednesday that the new unit would not be created. “The time for changes in the machinery of government has passed,” said one ally.

    https://www.ft.com/content/ec7142e5-6798-4a2b-901a-b3d583fea2b2

    Welcome to big-government managerial declinism, accompanied by the failure to take advantage of the regulatory freedoms afforded by leaving the EU. Worst of all worlds.
    It is curious that the current approach is 180 degrees opposite to the approach Tories cheered a few weeks ago. The coalition against growth I think they used to call this. It’s amazing how a political party can pivot so quickly to argue that black is white.
    To be fair, that's why the Conservative Party is the most successful political party in the western world.
    It all sounds a little bit pointless. You're going nowhere if you march off in one direction and then march all the way back (repeat ad nauseam). Just a waste of everyone's time. No wonder the world is moving faster than us.
    Duke of York (Grand Old).
  • LeonLeon Posts: 28,864

    Dura_Ace said:

    eek said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    “The Home Affairs Committee was told that "one to two percent" of the entire male population of Albania - around 10,000 men - arrived on small boats this year alone”

    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585362210523648009?s=46&t=MR0RvTp-dCr-GHWMb65iDw

    This is actually an exaggeration. It’s 1-2% of YOUNGER Albanian males. But it gives a scale

    And this is why Rwanda will work. These are not asylum seekers from Sudan or Syria. They are European men gaming the system. Offer them a 5% chance that their game will end in central Africa and they will stop coming

    Surely simply deport them back to Albania?
    Then they simply repeat the process of trying to get back to the UK.
    If they claim asylum then it's not easy to quickly deport them and they just disappear into the Deliveroo economy. There was an article in the Guardian (I think) recently about a couple of stupid arseholes who didn't claim asylum and they found themselves on Jet2 back to Mother Theresa International in Tirana very quickly. When they do get deported they get a Schengen Zone ban which makes a second attempt much more expensive and difficult.
    Then, the rules for claiming asylum need to be tightened so its more than just "because I say so".

    It's a massive gaping loophole.
    The solution is to process asylum claims promptly, but that doesn’t happen any more because the Government starved the process of money, preferring instead its “Potemkin” policy (as per Ishmael) of Rwanda. As with the Republicans in the US, the Conservatives are more interested in how things look than in actually solving a problem.

    “the solution is to process asylum claims promptly”

    They all dump their documents. There is no way of sorting them “promptly” that does not involve simply accepting their claims to asylum. Your proposal therefore = “let them all in quickly”. Thus inviting millions more

    You are a cretin
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    .

    IanB2 said:

    Lol! Zahawi’s explanation for Braverman coming back so soon is that “politics nowadays moves at breakneck speed”!

    Tbf Nads knows of what he speaks.


    Maybe Boris 2.0 actually meant Sunak ?
This discussion has been closed.