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This is what happens when you crash the economy and increase mortgage costs – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,954
    WillG said:

    alex_ said:

    Are we expecting Braverman to persist with her plans to bankrupt U.K. universities through restricting foreign students?

    The Home Office had funny views about students even in Theresa May's time running the department, insisting on counting students as immigrants.
    If they don't count as immigrants when they transfer to post-study visas or stay on illegally (and they don’t) they should when they arrive as students. There is a whole system of non-degree education where people from poor countries are paying for "tuition" but both sides know they are paying to get into the UK.
    Like with most things, there's a slightly awkward balance to achieve:

    (1) Don't discourage genuine students, who bring much needed export revenue (and also help spread British influence, and maintain the prestige of our instututions)

    while

    (2) Not allowing AnyTOne to sign up with a dodgy institution for a fake course just to get a visa.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,504
    Russians are "the last truly alive people of the white race"…

    Sounding more and more like the Nazis.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1585011937448169473
    one state TV panelist ruins the host's pompous announcement that Russia's war against Ukraine is becoming "the people's war" when he foams at the mouth about circulating proposals to draft "bums and deadbeats." There's some obligatory racism and much more.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,940
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    .

    The University of York has dropped students' initials from the email addresses it assigns people in a trans-friendly move.

    The university traditionally used the first letters of a students' first name and surname to create their email and username for the duration of their time at the institution.

    But it has now scrapped the practice to accommodate those who want to change their email addresses part way through their course because they changed their gender, or got married or divorced, and therefore changed their name.

    Other reasons students wanted to change their email addresses from their original initials included adopting a Western name, or having "difficult" family relationships that meant they did not want to be associated with their surname.

    The university has now said it will simply use randomly generated letters with no relation to the people involved.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/25/university-york-drops-students-initials-email-addresses-trans/

    What so hard with if somebody changes their name just give them a new email address (and the old one just silently forwards if people keep sending the wrong address).

    Cambridge assigns email addresses based on initials then an incrementing number. These numbers started from 1, though there were a few years when a sequence starting from 1000 was used (hence, I assume, rcs1000; I was of the same generation).

    A few years before my time, someone decided to change their name by deed poll simply to “mathew” (no surname) in order to get the ultimate email address.

    Unfortunately, the Computing Service was and is staffed by malevolent sociopaths, who took great delight in informing him: “We have issued you with the new email address xxm10@cam.ac.uk.”
    So...

    I started with phx.cam.ac.uk, an IBM S370, that was Cambridge University's main computer.

    Everyone who signed up got a seven character username: their initials followed by a counter. I was the first rcs, and therefore was rcs1000. My best friend, and the second highest first in Cambridge Computer Science, was gpjt100. Another friend didn't have a middle name, and was jr10005.
    I used that computer as a student, too, but I have no idea what my address would have been. You have good memories
    At QMW 30 years ago, my email was es2062. The 'es', I assumed, standing for 'engineering student'. I've many happy memories of the computing lab at the bottom of the engineering building.

    Random email addresses is probably the way to go (even 'es' is not ideal if the student changes courses, as I nearly did). But you do have a problem of ensuring that the randomness does not make anything non-ideal.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,940
    Nigelb said:

    Russians are "the last truly alive people of the white race"…

    Sounding more and more like the Nazis.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1585011937448169473
    one state TV panelist ruins the host's pompous announcement that Russia's war against Ukraine is becoming "the people's war" when he foams at the mouth about circulating proposals to draft "bums and deadbeats." There's some obligatory racism and much more.

    If they said that, they only meant *certain* Russians; many Russians being rather non-'white'.

    And they've been using the minorities as cannon fodder in Ukraine. Odd that.

    There's a non-negligible chance that Russia will fracture after all of this. Which will be frightening for us all, but understandable for those who want to be free of the racist and imperialist leadership thousands of miles away from their homes.
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Film from Leon's last night at his dude's Arizona Dude Ranch -

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=broKQIOYSNc
    Muppets - Roy Rodgers And Dale Evans - Sing a medley

    When Americans decide to enjoy themselves they really go for it. I guess it comes from having fewer holidays. Or more money.
    All my holidays are cheap, because I choose to be on holiday six or eight weeks a year. Sometimes, when lying on a particularly poor bed in a particularly poor hotel, I fantasise about having a high pressure job where I can only take a week a year, thus justifying spending £5k on a single short holiday. Then I remember that I would have to actually do the job, and I feel better.

    You have achieved a level of wisdom that a lot of “intelligent” people fail to reach. My mind turns to all those folk that do really well in exams and yet end up in quite frankly horrific jobs and life/work balance. What on earth is the point?

    Obviously, my idea of an horrific job might not be the same as yours. But the classic example - from my point of view - is medicine. There is just no way that the sacrifices an individual makes between the ages of about 12 to say about 35 are worth the mid-life rewards. It is quite simply a very poor return on investment.

    Am I wrong @Foxy ?

    To justify it you’d really have to get a huge kick/high out of the ethical/moral rewards.
    Yes, quite wrong.

    Certainly quite a gruelling life from Medical School onwards in terms of effort required and psychologically. Breaking bad news to folk never gets easy, and rightly so as it shouldn't. Like many things in life though you get back what you put in.

    I have really enjoyed my time as a doctor, and the camaraderie involved, had plenty of money and time off as well. I have travelled to work and for research. I am not particularly fond of other doctors, but genuinely like nearly all my patients. I don't see it particularly stimulating in moral/ethical terms, but people are endlessly fascinating, and the problem solving aspect intellectually stimulating. I never get bored.
    Thank you, and thank God for you and people like you.

    I find “I am not particularly fond of other doctors” a little alarming, and it confirms my prejudices (also note that it clashes with your “camaraderie” assertion). But on the plus side, if you really enjoy the job and the intellectual aspect then I can begin to understand.

    Anyhoo, comrades of your good self saved my sorry ass from cancer nearly two decades ago, and I could never express how grateful me and my children are for that act of skill, grace and compassion.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,304
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Film from Leon's last night at his dude's Arizona Dude Ranch -

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=broKQIOYSNc
    Muppets - Roy Rodgers And Dale Evans - Sing a medley

    When Americans decide to enjoy themselves they really go for it. I guess it comes from having fewer holidays. Or more money.
    All my holidays are cheap, because I choose to be on holiday six or eight weeks a year. Sometimes, when lying on a particularly poor bed in a particularly poor hotel, I fantasise about having a high pressure job where I can only take a week a year, thus justifying spending £5k on a single short holiday. Then I remember that I would have to actually do the job, and I feel better.

    You have achieved a level of wisdom that a lot of “intelligent” people fail to reach. My mind turns to all those folk that do really well in exams and yet end up in quite frankly horrific jobs and life/work balance. What on earth is the point?

    Obviously, my idea of an horrific job might not be the same as yours. But the classic example - from my point of view - is medicine. There is just no way that the sacrifices an individual makes between the ages of about 12 to say about 35 are worth the mid-life rewards. It is quite simply a very poor return on investment.

    Am I wrong @Foxy ?

    To justify it you’d really have to get a huge kick/high out of the ethical/moral rewards.
    Yes, quite wrong.

    Certainly quite a gruelling life from Medical School onwards in terms of effort required and psychologically. Breaking bad news to folk never gets easy, and rightly so as it shouldn't. Like many things in life though you get back what you put in.

    I have really enjoyed my time as a doctor, and the camaraderie involved, had plenty of money and time off as well. I have travelled to work and for research. I am not particularly fond of other doctors, but genuinely like nearly all my patients. I don't see it particularly stimulating in moral/ethical terms, but people are endlessly fascinating, and the problem solving aspect intellectually stimulating. I never get bored.
    Are they fond of you?!

    You are House and I claim my £5.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,884
    'Rishi Sunak pledged to govern with integrity and accountability but then reappointed Suella Braverman' - @skynewsniall

    Foreign Sec James Cleverly says the new Home Sec 'made a mistake' and PM Rishi Sunak 'wants the agenda she set out back in govt'

    https://trib.al/ecixuwi https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1585153967935324160/video/1
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,884
    'Is there such a lack of talent in Conservative ranks these days that Suella Braverman MP is truly the only person who can do the job as Home Secretary?' - @skynewsniall

    Listen to Foreign Secretary @JamesCleverly's answer 👇

    https://trib.al/Rx0iR33

    📺 Sky 501 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1585154380713672704/video/1
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited October 2022
    Eabhal said:

    WillG said:

    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    FF43 said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pity it's clearly nonsensical, migrants aren't camping in Calais because they want to flee a rich country to get to a poor country, nor do young Spaniards and Italians flock to London because the streets of Lisbon are paved with gold.
    You didn’t read it, did you?
    Go on, tell us why Britain is much poorer than France, then.
    Well, it’s got you in it for a start.
    Apart from that, just read the piece.
    Not a lot of cold, hard facts there. The rise of hand car washes is surely more to do with unchecked immigration from Eastern Europe than a failure to automate car washes.
    That the UK has lower productivity than peers in Europe and is falling behind further is well documented. UK median incomes after housing were amongst the highest in Europe before the GFC, now in the lower half and falling further relatively. This is directly attributable to two Conservative government policies: Cameron/Osborne austerity and Brexit. I would say the article is spot on.



    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/13/average-uk-household-8800-a-year-worse-off-than-those-in-france-or-germany

    DIsclosure: I thought austerity was necessary back in 2010. I now realise I was mistaken
    This is effectively saying that the median UK household is worse off relative to other European countries due to higher house prices, which is surely not right, on the contrary, most households gain from higher house prices because they get housing equity that they can liquidate for spending in retirement, unlike the typical German renter who needs to invest in ultra-safe pensions.
    But this is the problem ffs! In very simple terms, everyone on high incomes AHC in the UK tends to be a no-mortgage Tory with no dependents. Huge wealth and disposable income. And nothing to do with it.

    Meanwhile, someone like me has to chuck a huge amount of our salary into a mortgage or rent. We don't then have the money left over to go for a Masters degree or Further education, lowering our productivity. Or we don't have the spare cash to move to another part of the country to match our skills with a better job.

    Some of us, like me, get a big chunk of money off our parents for the flat and/or the Masters. This entrenches generational inequality, further disincentivising people who are high-performers from even bothering to make something of themselves.

    Productivity growth dies. No one has money to have kids, so the fertility rate drops. There is reduced working-age population which gets squeezed harder and harder to serve an older generation which, due to technological advances and an increase in chronic conditions, requires a huge number of carers (further reducing the working population).

    The UK enters a death spiral and everyone sensible moves to somewhere that isn't going to get fucked by climate change.
    This is what I did. Moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK.
    I'm moving to Aus in July/August.
    Great move! An old school/rugby colleague of mine moved his family to Australia a few years ago. It was a big success. My only worry is if/when air travel becomes so prohibitively expensive that Aus/NZ get “cut off”. Back to steamers?

    I have never for one moment regretted emigrating to Sweden. I absolutely love it here. Unfortunately I don’t think that I come up to @WillG ’s high standards - “moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK” - but maybe 40% more, and the other benefits just blow Scotland out the water, eg:

    - ridiculously long holidays + other time off (eg parental leave and time off to care for sick children)
    - short working hours (I have almost never worked more than 35 hours a week, often considerably less, all for F/T salary)
    - ridiculously short commuting times (approximately 17 minutes at present) and plenty of working from home
    - powerful trade unions that genuinely look after my interests
    - a clean, safe, attractive environment
    - outstanding library services that are so good I almost never need to buy a book or magazine ( anything they don’t already have, they order for me)
    - world class sports facilities and coaching
    - safe cycling
    - the gorgeous nature, coast, landscapes
    - sane, pleasant politicians
    - competent public services
    - media who are not habitual liars
    - beautiful seafood
    - sensible alcohol and drug environment
    - outstanding public transport
    - great schools and universities
    - I could go on all day

    Obviously, Scotland can beat Sweden in various ways too. Few things in life are all gain and no pain. I miss my old mum and my old friends for example. And nowhere in Sweden is as gorgeous as Harris, Orkney or Ardnamurchan on a good day. The fresh smell of the Atlantic Ocean is unparalleled.
  • Options
    El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870
    rcs1000 said:

    .

    The University of York has dropped students' initials from the email addresses it assigns people in a trans-friendly move.

    The university traditionally used the first letters of a students' first name and surname to create their email and username for the duration of their time at the institution.

    But it has now scrapped the practice to accommodate those who want to change their email addresses part way through their course because they changed their gender, or got married or divorced, and therefore changed their name.

    Other reasons students wanted to change their email addresses from their original initials included adopting a Western name, or having "difficult" family relationships that meant they did not want to be associated with their surname.

    The university has now said it will simply use randomly generated letters with no relation to the people involved.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/25/university-york-drops-students-initials-email-addresses-trans/

    What so hard with if somebody changes their name just give them a new email address (and the old one just silently forwards if people keep sending the wrong address).

    Cambridge assigns email addresses based on initials then an incrementing number. These numbers started from 1, though there were a few years when a sequence starting from 1000 was used (hence, I assume, rcs1000; I was of the same generation).

    A few years before my time, someone decided to change their name by deed poll simply to “mathew” (no surname) in order to get the ultimate email address.

    Unfortunately, the Computing Service was and is staffed by malevolent sociopaths, who took great delight in informing him: “We have issued you with the new email address xxm10@cam.ac.uk.”
    So...

    I started with phx.cam.ac.uk, an IBM S370, that was Cambridge University's main computer.

    Everyone who signed up got a seven character username: their initials followed by a counter. I was the first rcs, and therefore was rcs1000. My best friend, and the second highest first in Cambridge Computer Science, was gpjt100. Another friend didn't have a middle name, and was jr10005.
    Exactly!

    I was abc1001 (not abc, obviously): issued in 1992, which I think was the first year of the seven-character IDs.

    I wasn’t a compsci, but spent far too much time on Phoenix for my own good, mostly on Groggs and Zinque. Even made it into the Quotes file a couple of times…
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,599
    edited October 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    'Rishi Sunak pledged to govern with integrity and accountability but then reappointed Suella Braverman' - @skynewsniall

    Foreign Sec James Cleverly says the new Home Sec 'made a mistake' and PM Rishi Sunak 'wants the agenda she set out back in govt'

    https://trib.al/ecixuwi https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1585153967935324160/video/1

    After the PM, the three most senior Cabinet posts on 18th October under Truss:

    Braverman, Home Sec

    Cleverley, Foreign Sec

    Hunt, Chancellor

    Nothing's changed under Sunak then. A week may be a long time in politics, but just over a week isn't.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,884
    James Cleverly insists there's been an outbreak of harmony in the Tory party now Sunak has the top job.

    'Who supported who back in the day, that’s no longer relevant,' Foreign Sec tells @TimesRadio

    Back in the day being... Monday
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    Flights: how very pb to be discussing the cost of Business and not long haul Economy!

    Overseas folks I know are severely restricting how much they fly home now because of the extortionate cost of long haul. London to Asia direct is roughly triple what it used to be. Some of this is record jet fuel costs - cracks on jet are still above $50 whereas in the past it may have been $10-15. This is the premium you pay for a barrel of jet versus a barrel of crude.

    It’s hard to determine entirely without going through historic hedging programmes. But if you take an airline like SingAir, jet fuel costs have historically been about a quarter of their cost of sales. The very high jet prices imply that to maintain gross margins, you’d need to roughly double your revenue.

    But prices are up a lot more double. I don’t know about America but it can’t obviously be explained by pent up demand any more either, since anecdotally people are heavily restricting their long haul leisure travel due to cost. I haven’t looked at the detail but I can only conclude we can also blame the loss of the business traveller golden goose for the price increases. Because certainly big firms are flying people far less often than they used to.

  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_xP said:

    James Cleverly insists there's been an outbreak of harmony in the Tory party now Sunak has the top job.

    'Who supported who back in the day, that’s no longer relevant,' Foreign Sec tells @TimesRadio

    Back in the day being... Monday

    JC is clearly surprised and delighted to still have a career this morning. As he should be.
  • Options
    England shitting the bed here as the Ireland fans chant 'are you Scotland in disguise?'
  • Options
    NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,347

    Theres a ComRes in the Indy taken 21 to 23 October
    Lab 51 (-1)
    Con 25 (+3)
    LD 8 (-3)
    Only figures given

    Again the LD figure is nuts, on just 8% when the Tories are on 25%.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    Unfortunately, the Stage 1 Report on the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill, which was published by the Human Rights and Civil Justice Committee of the Scottish Parliament on the 6 October 2022, has not sufficiently considered the evidence of mental disorders which are often present with gender dysphoria. As a result, the recommendations given by the majority of MSPs preparing the report are unsafe and should be rejected.

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/consider-the-evidence-on-gender-dysphoria-dr-anthony-latham-dr-anne-williams-dr-calum-mackellar-and-dr-angus-mckellar-3891714
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,551

    Eabhal said:

    WillG said:

    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    FF43 said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pity it's clearly nonsensical, migrants aren't camping in Calais because they want to flee a rich country to get to a poor country, nor do young Spaniards and Italians flock to London because the streets of Lisbon are paved with gold.
    You didn’t read it, did you?
    Go on, tell us why Britain is much poorer than France, then.
    Well, it’s got you in it for a start.
    Apart from that, just read the piece.
    Not a lot of cold, hard facts there. The rise of hand car washes is surely more to do with unchecked immigration from Eastern Europe than a failure to automate car washes.
    That the UK has lower productivity than peers in Europe and is falling behind further is well documented. UK median incomes after housing were amongst the highest in Europe before the GFC, now in the lower half and falling further relatively. This is directly attributable to two Conservative government policies: Cameron/Osborne austerity and Brexit. I would say the article is spot on.



    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/13/average-uk-household-8800-a-year-worse-off-than-those-in-france-or-germany

    DIsclosure: I thought austerity was necessary back in 2010. I now realise I was mistaken
    This is effectively saying that the median UK household is worse off relative to other European countries due to higher house prices, which is surely not right, on the contrary, most households gain from higher house prices because they get housing equity that they can liquidate for spending in retirement, unlike the typical German renter who needs to invest in ultra-safe pensions.
    But this is the problem ffs! In very simple terms, everyone on high incomes AHC in the UK tends to be a no-mortgage Tory with no dependents. Huge wealth and disposable income. And nothing to do with it.

    Meanwhile, someone like me has to chuck a huge amount of our salary into a mortgage or rent. We don't then have the money left over to go for a Masters degree or Further education, lowering our productivity. Or we don't have the spare cash to move to another part of the country to match our skills with a better job.

    Some of us, like me, get a big chunk of money off our parents for the flat and/or the Masters. This entrenches generational inequality, further disincentivising people who are high-performers from even bothering to make something of themselves.

    Productivity growth dies. No one has money to have kids, so the fertility rate drops. There is reduced working-age population which gets squeezed harder and harder to serve an older generation which, due to technological advances and an increase in chronic conditions, requires a huge number of carers (further reducing the working population).

    The UK enters a death spiral and everyone sensible moves to somewhere that isn't going to get fucked by climate change.
    This is what I did. Moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK.
    I'm moving to Aus in July/August.
    Great move! An old school/rugby colleague of mine moved his family to Australia a few years ago. It was a big success. My only worry is if/when air travel becomes so prohibitively expensive that Aus/NZ get “cut off”. Back to steamers?

    I have never for one moment regretted emigrating to Sweden. I absolutely love it here. Unfortunately I don’t think that I come up to @WillG ’s high standards - “moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK” - but maybe 40% more, and the other benefits just blow Scotland out the water, eg:

    - ridiculously long holidays + other time off (eg parental leave and time off to care for sick children)
    - short working hours (I have almost never worked more than 35 hours a week, often considerably less, all for F/T salary)
    - ridiculously short commuting times (approximately 17 minutes at present) and plenty of working from home
    - powerful trade unions that genuinely look after my interests
    - a clean, safe, attractive environment
    - outstanding library services that are so good I almost never need to buy a book or magazine ( anything they don’t already have, they order for me)
    - world class sports facilities and coaching
    - safe cycling
    - the gorgeous nature, coast, landscapes
    - sane, pleasant politicians
    - competent public services
    - media who are not habitual liars
    - beautiful seafood
    - sensible alcohol and drug environment
    - outstanding public transport
    - great schools and universities
    - I could go on all day

    Obviously, Scotland can beat Sweden in various ways too. Few things in life are all gain and no pain. I miss my old mum and my old friends for example. And nowhere in Sweden is as gorgeous as Harris, Orkney or Ardnamurchan on a good day. The fresh smell of the Atlantic Ocean is unparalleled.
    How long have you been living in Sweden?
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,884
    A view I’ve picked up inside and outside No 10 was that Braverman appointment was a mistake in an otherwise smooth start. One former No 10 staffer texted me last night: “Suella appointment will be a total disaster.”

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1585160877640417280
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585157851688980482
  • Options
    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    I noted yesterday that upon the Braverman announcement Lab Maj shortened and Con Maj lengthened. It was a truly dreadful error on Day One.

    Yesterday I believed it was an unforced error.
    Today I read that it was in fact a forced error.
    Toxic Tories never die, they just mutate.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Scott_xP said:

    'Rishi Sunak pledged to govern with integrity and accountability but then reappointed Suella Braverman' - @skynewsniall

    Foreign Sec James Cleverly says the new Home Sec 'made a mistake' and PM Rishi Sunak 'wants the agenda she set out back in govt'

    https://trib.al/ecixuwi https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1585153967935324160/video/1

    After the PM, the three most senior Cabinet posts on 18th October under Truss:

    Braverman, Home Sec

    Cleverley, Foreign Sec

    Hunt, Chancellor

    Nothing's changed under Sunak then. A week may be a long time in politics, but just over a week isn't.
    The change is Sunak for Truss and Hunt for whoever was doing it just before him.
    Braverman is a difficult to understand in any real world. Maybe it is inevitable that she screws up badly and can be replaced in a month or so, with her wing of the party having had a chance but blown itm but weakening the bargaining position.
    Hope over expectation!
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181

    England shitting the bed here as the Ireland fans chant 'are you Scotland in disguise?'

    There must have been some epically awful batting going on if even Liam Livingstone took three wickets.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Scott_xP said:

    A view I’ve picked up inside and outside No 10 was that Braverman appointment was a mistake in an otherwise smooth start. One former No 10 staffer texted me last night: “Suella appointment will be a total disaster.”

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1585160877640417280
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585157851688980482

    At this very early stage Truss was doing better than Sunak.
  • Options

    I noted yesterday that upon the Braverman announcement Lab Maj shortened and Con Maj lengthened. It was a truly dreadful error on Day One.

    Yesterday I believed it was an unforced error.
    Today I read that it was in fact a forced error.
    Toxic Tories never die, they just mutate.

    Sunak should never have made a big play about integrity and honesty. It was an unforced error. He did not have to specifically reference them. I just think he's not great at politics, which is no surprise since he's not really had to do much of it in the seven years he has been an MP.

  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,884
    .@JamesCleverly says @RishiSunak had such an overwhelming majority of MPs supporting him that "frankly, I don't think he needed the endorsement of any one MP" (ie @SuellaBraverman)
    Hmmm. Is that why Sunak rang her several times (6, @nicholaswatt?) to get her backing at weekend?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1585161769021865984
    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1585156035735535616
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    I noted yesterday that upon the Braverman announcement Lab Maj shortened and Con Maj lengthened. It was a truly dreadful error on Day One.

    Yesterday I believed it was an unforced error.
    Today I read that it was in fact a forced error.
    Toxic Tories never die, they just mutate.

    Sunak should never have made a big play about integrity and honesty. It was an unforced error. He did not have to specifically reference them. I just think he's not great at politics, which is no surprise since he's not really had to do much of it in the seven years he has been an MP.

    John Major back to basics type of error.
  • Options

    Theres a ComRes in the Indy taken 21 to 23 October
    Lab 51 (-1)
    Con 25 (+3)
    LD 8 (-3)
    Only figures given

    Again the LD figure is nuts, on just 8% when the Tories are on 25%.
    It makes much more sense, IMO, to look at the combined Lab + LD + Green score. What the 8% tells us is the number of diehard LD voters, not the number that would choose them over a Tory incumbent in a GE.

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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    Scott_xP said:

    A view I’ve picked up inside and outside No 10 was that Braverman appointment was a mistake in an otherwise smooth start. One former No 10 staffer texted me last night: “Suella appointment will be a total disaster.”

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1585160877640417280
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585157851688980482

    I have never seen Suella Braverman on telly or give a speech, all I know is Twitter and most of you lot think she’s a baddie, somewhere between Himmler and Rose West. Could someone save me the time and explain why? Ive read her CV and it seems adequate enough. I just watched the first 5min interview of her on YouTube I could find and she didn’t say much of obvious offensive or calamity. She didn’t say much to hold my attention either but that doesn’t explain all the hate. All I could find was an off the cuff jibe about tofu eaters?
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    moonshine said:

    Flights: how very pb to be discussing the cost of Business and not long haul Economy!

    Overseas folks I know are severely restricting how much they fly home now because of the extortionate cost of long haul. London to Asia direct is roughly triple what it used to be. Some of this is record jet fuel costs - cracks on jet are still above $50 whereas in the past it may have been $10-15. This is the premium you pay for a barrel of jet versus a barrel of crude.

    It’s hard to determine entirely without going through historic hedging programmes. But if you take an airline like SingAir, jet fuel costs have historically been about a quarter of their cost of sales. The very high jet prices imply that to maintain gross margins, you’d need to roughly double your revenue.

    But prices are up a lot more double. I don’t know about America but it can’t obviously be explained by pent up demand any more either, since anecdotally people are heavily restricting their long haul leisure travel due to cost. I haven’t looked at the detail but I can only conclude we can also blame the loss of the business traveller golden goose for the price increases. Because certainly big firms are flying people far less often than they used to.

    Not just long haul. Whilst you can pick up some ludicrous giveaway tickets on some routes, others are crazy for so-called "low cost" carriers. The planes I have been on have been largely full, so people are paying it.
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    StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    A view I’ve picked up inside and outside No 10 was that Braverman appointment was a mistake in an otherwise smooth start. One former No 10 staffer texted me last night: “Suella appointment will be a total disaster.”

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1585160877640417280
    https://twitter.com/skynews/status/1585157851688980482

    At this very early stage Truss was doing better than Sunak.
    Spot on!
    Folk have quickly forgotten that up until the mini budget she was actually doing ok.
    Sunak worse than Truss?!? Start worrying Herd.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    (1/5) On 24 October 2022, the governor of Russia’s Belgorod region announced that an explosive device had damaged the railway near the village of Novozybkovo, approximately 15km from the Russia-Belarus border. The line is the main rail link between Russia and southern Belarus.

    (2/5) The Russian anti-war group ‘Stop the Wagons’ (STW) claimed responsibility for the incident. This is at least the sixth incident of sabotage against Russian railway infrastructure claimed by STW since June,.


    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1585134337883869184
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The more worrying aspect of the Braverman u turn is that Sunak wants a frothing right winger in the home office to generate red meat headlines to distract tabloids from the economy and tax. I expect lots of divisive culture war nonsense.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    For goodness sakes, just retire Ben Stokes from T20 already.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,884
    Jonathan said:

    The more worrying aspect of the Braverman u turn is that Sunak wants a frothing right winger in the home office to generate red meat headlines to distract tabloids from the economy and tax. I expect lots of divisive culture war nonsense.

    As the UK teeters on the brink of a recession, Keir Starmer believes Labour’s time is best spent mercilessly targeting what Rishi Sunak did while chancellor. @REWearmouth explains. https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/labour/2022/10/how-will-labour-take-on-rishi-sunak?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1666717220-1
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    NEW THREAD

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    Scott_xP said:

    .@JamesCleverly says @RishiSunak had such an overwhelming majority of MPs supporting him that "frankly, I don't think he needed the endorsement of any one MP" (ie @SuellaBraverman)
    Hmmm. Is that why Sunak rang her several times (6, @nicholaswatt?) to get her backing at weekend?

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1585161769021865984
    https://twitter.com/Haggis_UK/status/1585156035735535616

    Sunak had to call Braverman and get her on board. Boris had landed, appeared to have momentum and had the ERG backed him then he would have been on the ballot and would have won the member vote.

    Where Rishi got this wrong was that having promised Suella Braverman a swift return to her job, he actually went through with it. Silly boy. Summon her, say "I have now been fully briefed about the incident which led to your resignation, very sorry but you can't come back."

    She departs, wailing and gnashing from here small coterie of supporters, but the government looks stronger. Instead, the nutter is back and he looks weak.
  • Options

    Eabhal said:

    WillG said:

    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    FF43 said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pity it's clearly nonsensical, migrants aren't camping in Calais because they want to flee a rich country to get to a poor country, nor do young Spaniards and Italians flock to London because the streets of Lisbon are paved with gold.
    You didn’t read it, did you?
    Go on, tell us why Britain is much poorer than France, then.
    Well, it’s got you in it for a start.
    Apart from that, just read the piece.
    Not a lot of cold, hard facts there. The rise of hand car washes is surely more to do with unchecked immigration from Eastern Europe than a failure to automate car washes.
    That the UK has lower productivity than peers in Europe and is falling behind further is well documented. UK median incomes after housing were amongst the highest in Europe before the GFC, now in the lower half and falling further relatively. This is directly attributable to two Conservative government policies: Cameron/Osborne austerity and Brexit. I would say the article is spot on.



    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/13/average-uk-household-8800-a-year-worse-off-than-those-in-france-or-germany

    DIsclosure: I thought austerity was necessary back in 2010. I now realise I was mistaken
    This is effectively saying that the median UK household is worse off relative to other European countries due to higher house prices, which is surely not right, on the contrary, most households gain from higher house prices because they get housing equity that they can liquidate for spending in retirement, unlike the typical German renter who needs to invest in ultra-safe pensions.
    But this is the problem ffs! In very simple terms, everyone on high incomes AHC in the UK tends to be a no-mortgage Tory with no dependents. Huge wealth and disposable income. And nothing to do with it.

    Meanwhile, someone like me has to chuck a huge amount of our salary into a mortgage or rent. We don't then have the money left over to go for a Masters degree or Further education, lowering our productivity. Or we don't have the spare cash to move to another part of the country to match our skills with a better job.

    Some of us, like me, get a big chunk of money off our parents for the flat and/or the Masters. This entrenches generational inequality, further disincentivising people who are high-performers from even bothering to make something of themselves.

    Productivity growth dies. No one has money to have kids, so the fertility rate drops. There is reduced working-age population which gets squeezed harder and harder to serve an older generation which, due to technological advances and an increase in chronic conditions, requires a huge number of carers (further reducing the working population).

    The UK enters a death spiral and everyone sensible moves to somewhere that isn't going to get fucked by climate change.
    This is what I did. Moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK.
    I'm moving to Aus in July/August.
    Great move! An old school/rugby colleague of mine moved his family to Australia a few years ago. It was a big success. My only worry is if/when air travel becomes so prohibitively expensive that Aus/NZ get “cut off”. Back to steamers?

    I have never for one moment regretted emigrating to Sweden. I absolutely love it here. Unfortunately I don’t think that I come up to @WillG ’s high standards - “moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK” - but maybe 40% more, and the other benefits just blow Scotland out the water, eg:

    - ridiculously long holidays + other time off (eg parental leave and time off to care for sick children)
    - short working hours (I have almost never worked more than 35 hours a week, often considerably less, all for F/T salary)
    - ridiculously short commuting times (approximately 17 minutes at present) and plenty of working from home
    - powerful trade unions that genuinely look after my interests
    - a clean, safe, attractive environment
    - outstanding library services that are so good I almost never need to buy a book or magazine ( anything they don’t already have, they order for me)
    - world class sports facilities and coaching
    - safe cycling
    - the gorgeous nature, coast, landscapes
    - sane, pleasant politicians
    - competent public services
    - media who are not habitual liars
    - beautiful seafood
    - sensible alcohol and drug environment
    - outstanding public transport
    - great schools and universities
    - I could go on all day

    Obviously, Scotland can beat Sweden in various ways too. Few things in life are all gain and no pain. I miss my old mum and my old friends for example. And nowhere in Sweden is as gorgeous as Harris, Orkney or Ardnamurchan on a good day. The fresh smell of the Atlantic Ocean is unparalleled
    I've always enjoyed my visits to Sweden for work and pleasure, and the Swedes are a pleasure to work with - they are very smart and the media definitely seems to pitch at a much higher level of intelligence than ours does. The one thing that I have always struggled with, though, is the reserve. They seem not to say a lot of stuff they may be thinking. And the mosquitos. They are sheer hell. But the light blue of the Swedish sky in summer and the dark blue of those Swedish lakes, that is magical. I also think the Swedish flag is the most beautiful in the world.

  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,169

    Theres a ComRes in the Indy taken 21 to 23 October
    Lab 51 (-1)
    Con 25 (+3)
    LD 8 (-3)
    Only figures given

    Again the LD figure is nuts, on just 8% when the Tories are on 25%.
    A few factors really hurt them I think.

    1. Not being the third party in the Commons. This has cut down the amount of time the BBC and other broadcasters give them, making it that much harder to be heard.
    2. Weakness at the fringes. Wales and Scotland used to be areas of strength, but now they are the fifth party in Scotland, and only just hanging on with one AM in Wales.
    3. The speed of Truss' collapse created a sense that the Tories must be got rid of at all costs. The urgency encourages a direct transfer to Labour rather than a more considered view.

    They really need to get past the SNP seat tally in the Commons. It's some distance off.
  • Options
    Jonathan said:

    I noted yesterday that upon the Braverman announcement Lab Maj shortened and Con Maj lengthened. It was a truly dreadful error on Day One.

    Yesterday I believed it was an unforced error.
    Today I read that it was in fact a forced error.
    Toxic Tories never die, they just mutate.

    Sunak should never have made a big play about integrity and honesty. It was an unforced error. He did not have to specifically reference them. I just think he's not great at politics, which is no surprise since he's not really had to do much of it in the seven years he has been an MP.

    John Major back to basics type of error.
    Worse than that.

    B2B wasn't a moral crusade in Major's head, but it gave space for right wing tabloids to start one to his disadvantage.

    Integrity and honesty is what it says on the tin. I can see why Rishi wanted to push it, given that his real threat/rival is his predecessor but one. But wanting and saying isn't enough, and the Braverman reappointment blows it out of the water.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,327
    Nigelb said:

    Russians are "the last truly alive people of the white race"…

    Sounding more and more like the Nazis.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1585011937448169473
    one state TV panelist ruins the host's pompous announcement that Russia's war against Ukraine is becoming "the people's war" when he foams at the mouth about circulating proposals to draft "bums and deadbeats." There's some obligatory racism and much more.

    Yuck. But the revulsion about the invasion is leading Western media to seize on any nutty Russian commentator as typical of Russia in general, except for a few dissidents. It's possible to find a repulsive view expressed in British media too, without it being a significant indicator of what Britain is like.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,592

    Eabhal said:

    WillG said:

    Eabhal said:

    EPG said:

    FF43 said:

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Pity it's clearly nonsensical, migrants aren't camping in Calais because they want to flee a rich country to get to a poor country, nor do young Spaniards and Italians flock to London because the streets of Lisbon are paved with gold.
    You didn’t read it, did you?
    Go on, tell us why Britain is much poorer than France, then.
    Well, it’s got you in it for a start.
    Apart from that, just read the piece.
    Not a lot of cold, hard facts there. The rise of hand car washes is surely more to do with unchecked immigration from Eastern Europe than a failure to automate car washes.
    That the UK has lower productivity than peers in Europe and is falling behind further is well documented. UK median incomes after housing were amongst the highest in Europe before the GFC, now in the lower half and falling further relatively. This is directly attributable to two Conservative government policies: Cameron/Osborne austerity and Brexit. I would say the article is spot on.



    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/13/average-uk-household-8800-a-year-worse-off-than-those-in-france-or-germany

    DIsclosure: I thought austerity was necessary back in 2010. I now realise I was mistaken
    This is effectively saying that the median UK household is worse off relative to other European countries due to higher house prices, which is surely not right, on the contrary, most households gain from higher house prices because they get housing equity that they can liquidate for spending in retirement, unlike the typical German renter who needs to invest in ultra-safe pensions.
    But this is the problem ffs! In very simple terms, everyone on high incomes AHC in the UK tends to be a no-mortgage Tory with no dependents. Huge wealth and disposable income. And nothing to do with it.

    Meanwhile, someone like me has to chuck a huge amount of our salary into a mortgage or rent. We don't then have the money left over to go for a Masters degree or Further education, lowering our productivity. Or we don't have the spare cash to move to another part of the country to match our skills with a better job.

    Some of us, like me, get a big chunk of money off our parents for the flat and/or the Masters. This entrenches generational inequality, further disincentivising people who are high-performers from even bothering to make something of themselves.

    Productivity growth dies. No one has money to have kids, so the fertility rate drops. There is reduced working-age population which gets squeezed harder and harder to serve an older generation which, due to technological advances and an increase in chronic conditions, requires a huge number of carers (further reducing the working population).

    The UK enters a death spiral and everyone sensible moves to somewhere that isn't going to get fucked by climate change.
    This is what I did. Moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK.
    I'm moving to Aus in July/August.
    Great move! An old school/rugby colleague of mine moved his family to Australia a few years ago. It was a big success. My only worry is if/when air travel becomes so prohibitively expensive that Aus/NZ get “cut off”. Back to steamers?

    I have never for one moment regretted emigrating to Sweden. I absolutely love it here. Unfortunately I don’t think that I come up to @WillG ’s high standards - “moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK” - but maybe 40% more, and the other benefits just blow Scotland out the water, eg:

    - ridiculously long holidays + other time off (eg parental leave and time off to care for sick children)
    - short working hours (I have almost never worked more than 35 hours a week, often considerably less, all for F/T salary)
    - ridiculously short commuting times (approximately 17 minutes at present) and plenty of working from home
    - powerful trade unions that genuinely look after my interests
    - a clean, safe, attractive environment
    - outstanding library services that are so good I almost never need to buy a book or magazine ( anything they don’t already have, they order for me)
    - world class sports facilities and coaching
    - safe cycling
    - the gorgeous nature, coast, landscapes
    - sane, pleasant politicians
    - competent public services
    - media who are not habitual liars
    - beautiful seafood
    - sensible alcohol and drug environment
    - outstanding public transport
    - great schools and universities
    - I could go on all day

    Obviously, Scotland can beat Sweden in various ways too. Few things in life are all gain and no pain. I miss my old mum and my old friends for example. And nowhere in Sweden is as gorgeous as Harris, Orkney or Ardnamurchan on a good day. The fresh smell of the Atlantic Ocean is unparalleled
    I've always enjoyed my visits to Sweden for work and pleasure, and the Swedes are a pleasure to work with - they are very smart and the media definitely seems to pitch at a much higher level of intelligence than ours does. The one thing that I have always struggled with, though, is the reserve. They seem not to say a lot of stuff they may be thinking. And the mosquitos. They are sheer hell. But the light blue of the Swedish sky in summer and the dark blue of those Swedish lakes, that is magical. I also think the Swedish flag is the most beautiful in the world.

    There is also a grim melancholia to Swedish people, with a rather austere and harsh Lutheran culture. Something that either you feel in tune with, or not. I am fine with it, but I can understand why others find "the Germans of the North" difficult.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,327



    Great move! An old school/rugby colleague of mine moved his family to Australia a few years ago. It was a big success. My only worry is if/when air travel becomes so prohibitively expensive that Aus/NZ get “cut off”. Back to steamers?

    I have never for one moment regretted emigrating to Sweden. I absolutely love it here. Unfortunately I don’t think that I come up to @WillG ’s high standards - “moved somewhere else where I got paid 60% more for the same job I did in the UK” - but maybe 40% more, and the other benefits just blow Scotland out the water, eg:

    - ridiculously long holidays + other time off (eg parental leave and time off to care for sick children)
    - short working hours (I have almost never worked more than 35 hours a week, often considerably less, all for F/T salary)
    - ridiculously short commuting times (approximately 17 minutes at present) and plenty of working from home
    - powerful trade unions that genuinely look after my interests
    - a clean, safe, attractive environment
    - outstanding library services that are so good I almost never need to buy a book or magazine ( anything they don’t already have, they order for me)
    - world class sports facilities and coaching
    - safe cycling
    - the gorgeous nature, coast, landscapes
    - sane, pleasant politicians
    - competent public services
    - media who are not habitual liars
    - beautiful seafood
    - sensible alcohol and drug environment
    - outstanding public transport
    - great schools and universities
    - I could go on all day

    Obviously, Scotland can beat Sweden in various ways too. Few things in life are all gain and no pain. I miss my old mum and my old friends for example. And nowhere in Sweden is as gorgeous as Harris, Orkney or Ardnamurchan on a good day. The fresh smell of the Atlantic Ocean is unparalleled.

    Yes, I'm just back from a holiday in Denmark, and found it much the same as the pretty idyllic place I grew up in. Stuart is a former Swedish Conservative (Moderate) and I started as a communist, but I came to feel that Scandi social democracy was the form of government to aim for (doesn't need to be run by official social demnocrats, just people signed up for the general approach). Generally free market but high taxes funding excellent public services. I don't on reflection especially care who owns the service so long as they pay taxes and the outcome is good.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,940

    Nigelb said:

    Russians are "the last truly alive people of the white race"…

    Sounding more and more like the Nazis.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1585011937448169473
    one state TV panelist ruins the host's pompous announcement that Russia's war against Ukraine is becoming "the people's war" when he foams at the mouth about circulating proposals to draft "bums and deadbeats." There's some obligatory racism and much more.

    Yuck. But the revulsion about the invasion is leading Western media to seize on any nutty Russian commentator as typical of Russia in general, except for a few dissidents. It's possible to find a repulsive view expressed in British media too, without it being a significant indicator of what Britain is like.
    Except for the fact that we have a very broad and free media in the UK. Russian media is remarkably less free, and much more state-controlled. Also, apparently, it is much narrower in views.
  • Options
    timpletimple Posts: 118

    timple said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    The U.K. is now an object lesson for other countries dealing with a dark triad of deindustrialization, degrowth, and denigration of foreigners. Having offshored industry in favor of finance, its economy wasn’t resilient. The resulting erosion in living standards made the public desperate for something to blame. Blame-seeking conservatives spotted bogeymen abroad. Brexit cut off the economy from further growth and set the stage for a rolling political circus.
    Nice story except that up to 2016 we were one of the fastest growing economies in the G7....... And then the Tories messed it up with their Brexit psychodrama. We killed the goose that we didn't realise was laying the golden eggs.......
    The golden eggs were not shared -- that was the problem. They were kept by the affluent who benefitted enormously from the EU.

    If the wealth had been properly shared, then of course all the poor parts of the country would not have voted for Brexit.
    This is essentially true, but plays into the idea that the EU was some kind of upper middle class wealth machine.

    But the problems are to do with (lack of) domestic redistribution and investment policy rather than the bounty of European market access and talented labour.
    As an EU member, we continued our path of economical decline, and paid handsomely for the privilege. We maintained a consistent BOP deficit with the Continent, partly because the free market was weighted toward goods, especially food, rather than services, where there was never a true free market.
    Better trade in services than almost anywhere else...... I find it sad that in UK 2022 young grads applying for top end jobs in London are favoured if they have an EU passport as opposed to plain UK citizens in their own capital city. Of course being able to send a consultant anywhere in the EU at short notice is a great advantage so I don't blame the employers, just the rotten system we have found ourselves with. Take back control eh!
This discussion has been closed.