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Starmer now a 74% betting chance to be PM after next election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
imageStarmer now a 74% betting chance to be PM after next election – politicalbetting.com

Inevitably given the way the opinion polls have moved so sharply to Labour then Keir starmer has moved up in the betting to be the prime minister after the next general election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited October 13
    First

    So, who tipped lab maj at 5/1? On here, so's you could all see.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,093
    First, like SKS at Westminster.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    I've never seen numbers like this before. It's mid-1990s territory

    Labour 53%
    Conservatives 19%

    @PeoplePolling Oct 12

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1580656789015891969
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    “Among the general public, 50% want Truss to be ousted. Just 9% think the Conservatives chose the right leader this summer….”
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-plot-to-replace-truss-with-rishi-sunak-and-penny-mordaunt-wjdfwzzvk
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Scott_xP said:

    I've never seen numbers like this before. It's mid-1990s territory

    Labour 53%
    Conservatives 19%

    @PeoplePolling Oct 12

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1580656789015891969

    It's "voter strike 2019 to get rid of May" territory.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922
    Scott_xP said:

    I've never seen numbers like this before. It's mid-1990s territory

    Labour 53%
    Conservatives 19%

    @PeoplePolling Oct 12

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1580656789015891969

    Just missing a literally in there to go full colemanballs......
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    - Apparently, the Tories' poll rating is high among teens.
    - Really?
    - Oh, no, sorry. The Tories' poll rating is in the high teens.

    https://twitter.com/DavidMills73/status/1580650576345694208
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    Sorry to hear.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    Very sorry for your loss.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,643
    Jonathan said:

    So… thought experiment. You wake up tomorrow You’re Liz Truss. What do you do?

    After 15 minutes, I would find myself ejected beside the New Jersey Turnpike.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    This would be unprecedented, even astounding, if it happens. But I did say tonight on Radio 4’s PM that Ms Truss might not last as long as Bonar Law, who was Tory PM for only seven months. He stepped down for health reasons (throat cancer). Not incompetence.

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1580663139401465856
    https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1580658752457707521
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,735

    Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    Sounds like a great guy. Sorry to hear your news.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Scott_xP said:

    I've never seen numbers like this before. It's mid-1990s territory

    Labour 53%
    Conservatives 19%

    @PeoplePolling Oct 12

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1580656789015891969

    Just missing a literally in there to go full colemanballs......
    He would have been about 14 when the Tory mid 1990s disaster happened.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    ...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    Sorry for your loss.

    Sounds an interesting fellow.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,859

    Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    He sounds amazing, and lived a life most of us won't achieve. I'm so sorry that he's gone but it sounds as though he had a very good friend in you. All the very best.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604

    Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    Condolences. Very Sorry.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Not for the first time, the Star manages to capture the moment...


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,093
    edited October 13

    Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    Sorry for your loss.

    Sounds an interesting fellow.
    RN artificer apprentice: would have been superbly trained. Sort of training where you had to make your own tools. My dad had the same training, albeit during WW2 (and not an air mech).

    The kind of ongoing test they had was to make a perfect metal cube one inch on every side, by hand tools only.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine the humiliation of a Liz Truss Downing St resignation speech in the coming weeks.

    “I’m proud of the achievements of my government. We had a very successful induction day. Our first tea run went smoothly. I personally scored 84% on the health & safety at work assessment.”


    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1580663857697415168

    “I didn’t get fined By the police and didn’t call an election or referendum and go on to lose it.”
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    Starmer is praying that 'if' is a massive big 'if'.

    Is there anything he can do to help save her?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    FPT: my list, going through, of all even remotely credible unity candidates beyond Wallace:


    Green, May, Hunt, Cox, Julian Smith, Brady, Barclay.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine the humiliation of a Liz Truss Downing St resignation speech in the coming weeks.

    “I’m proud of the achievements of my government. We had a very successful induction day. Our first tea run went smoothly. I personally scored 84% on the health & safety at work assessment.”


    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1580663857697415168

    Her bit of the funeral was ok.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,735
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine the humiliation of a Liz Truss Downing St resignation speech in the coming weeks.

    “I’m proud of the achievements of my government. We had a very successful induction day. Our first tea run went smoothly. I personally scored 84% on the health & safety at work assessment.”


    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1580663857697415168

    “I didn’t get fined By the police and didn’t call an election or referendum and go on to lose it.”
    "Never lost a Commons vote"?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    These 'grandees' think they're ending someone else's career, but it seems like they're ending their own to me.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 251

    Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    You have my sympathies. I lost my oldest friend earlier this year in similar circumstances (though he stayed at home to the end) and before his time.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    Starmer is praying that 'if' is a massive big 'if'.

    Is there anything he can do to help save her?
    Just keep being shit and hope that's enough.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,380
    Meant to try and catch up on the British politics earlier on, but never got around to it till now. Too busy looking at accruals (interesting) and following the war in Ukraine.

    Anyway, Truss seems doomed, but equally there is no good way out for the party.
    If they try and get rid, even a coronation, its going to look awful and the members will rightly throw an absolute fit. They voted for Truss and they get..... Sunak? Mordaunt? Johnson! May!? Crazy. The party will be punished both by members ripping up their cards and leaving, and at the upcoming election which is now surely lost (though I'll always caveat it with 'events dear boy events').

    If they stick with Truss, its becoming more and more obvious that she isn't fit to be Prime Minister (some example of the Peter Principle here.... and maybe even more than that). She could lurch from crisis to crisis in the next two years before finally getting thrashed at the polls. But whether the country can cope with her for two years is another question.

    One thing I've not necessarily seen mentioned, is that, just like in the summer with Johnson's removal, the Leader of the Opposition has a role to play here.
    If I was Starmer, I'd call a Parliamentary VoNC. Force the Conservatives to back her.... or not.
    If the perceived wisdom is a GE is needed, then calling the VoNC will force backbenches to rally behind her. And Starmer can remind them of that at every opportunity.
    And if they don't.... then its a November GE.... one that Labour could win.

    But I'm not sure Starmer is up to this. He wasn't in the summer......
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,673

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    These 'grandees' think they're ending someone else's career, but it seems like they're ending their own to me.
    Na, that ended the moment the membership went for Truss. As was friggin obvious
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine the humiliation of a Liz Truss Downing St resignation speech in the coming weeks.

    “I’m proud of the achievements of my government. We had a very successful induction day. Our first tea run went smoothly. I personally scored 84% on the health & safety at work assessment.”


    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1580663857697415168

    “I didn’t get fined By the police and didn’t call an election or referendum and go on to lose it.”
    "Didn't lose Scotland on my watch. Didn't have time to!"
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985
    edited October 13

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    These 'grandees' think they're ending someone else's career, but it seems like they're ending their own to me.
    That's more likely if she stays on than if she goes.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    Starmer is praying that 'if' is a massive big 'if'.

    Is there anything he can do to help save her?
    Get steaming drunk, have a massive korma, throw up profusely on the sole copy of Kwarteng's special financial operation. Collude with Truss to pretend the last month never happened.

    .....HMQ steps out of the shower to meet the new PM.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922

    Scott_xP said:

    I've never seen numbers like this before. It's mid-1990s territory

    Labour 53%
    Conservatives 19%

    @PeoplePolling Oct 12

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1580656789015891969

    Just missing a literally in there to go full colemanballs......
    He would have been about 14 when the Tory mid 1990s disaster happened.
    Regardless of age, how does he know its mid 90s territory if he has never seen numbers like it? I know I am too pedantic and literal but this kind of hyperbole makes my head explode over and over again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    These 'grandees' think they're ending someone else's career, but it seems like they're ending their own to me.
    We are at the stage now where I think even Grant Shapps counts as a grandee!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,735

    Scott_xP said:

    I've never seen numbers like this before. It's mid-1990s territory

    Labour 53%
    Conservatives 19%

    @PeoplePolling Oct 12

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1580656789015891969

    Just missing a literally in there to go full colemanballs......
    He would have been about 14 when the Tory mid 1990s disaster happened.
    Regardless of age, how does he know its mid 90s territory if he has never seen numbers like it? I know I am too pedantic and literal but this kind of hyperbole makes my head explode over and over again.
    Literally makes your head explode?

    How many times?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 53% (+1)
    CON: 19% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 12 Oct.
    Changes w/ 6 Oct.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/just-nine-per-cent-have-favourable-view-liz-truss/


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    The North Evington (Leicester) by-election tonight is an interesting one. The area is heavily Asian, a mixture of Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs in that order. The Labour candidate is a supporter of Modi and RSS, with the Tory candidate a close second last time.

    It wouldn't surprise me if the Tory gain here. There are some strange politics in the area at the moment. This area was one of the centres of the recent communal violence.


  • PJHPJH Posts: 251
    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT: my list, going through, of all even remotely credible unity candidates beyond Wallace:


    Green, May, Hunt, Cox, Julian Smith, Brady, Barclay.

    I can't see any of them being realistic. My view as an informed non-Tory:

    Green - who?
    May - we got rid of her once already, no thanks
    Hunt - unacceptable to both types of Brexit ultra
    Cox - really? My daughters think he is some kind of comedy parody of a Tory
    Smith - Hmm, hadn't though of him. I know he made a decent fist of NI so must have some ability, but I have no idea who he is actually
    Brady - too smarmy
    Barclay - too anonymous, not a leader
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,604
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 53% (+1)
    CON: 19% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 12 Oct.
    Changes w/ 6 Oct.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/just-nine-per-cent-have-favourable-view-liz-truss/


    SNP opposition leader. Nice.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,841
    PJH said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT: my list, going through, of all even remotely credible unity candidates beyond Wallace:


    Green, May, Hunt, Cox, Julian Smith, Brady, Barclay.

    I can't see any of them being realistic. My view as an informed non-Tory:

    Green - who?
    May - we got rid of her once already, no thanks
    Hunt - unacceptable to both types of Brexit ultra
    Cox - really? My daughters think he is some kind of comedy parody of a Tory
    Smith - Hmm, hadn't though of him. I know he made a decent fist of NI so must have some ability, but I have no idea who he is actually
    Brady - too smarmy
    Barclay - too anonymous, not a leader
    So, Wallace it is then?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 53% (+1)
    CON: 19% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 12 Oct.
    Changes w/ 6 Oct.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/just-nine-per-cent-have-favourable-view-liz-truss/


    SNP opposition leader. Nice.
    Tories could run with that: "Don't vote Labour, you'll end up with Sturgeon as Opposition Leader."

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    ...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,922

    Scott_xP said:

    I've never seen numbers like this before. It's mid-1990s territory

    Labour 53%
    Conservatives 19%

    @PeoplePolling Oct 12

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1580656789015891969

    Just missing a literally in there to go full colemanballs......
    He would have been about 14 when the Tory mid 1990s disaster happened.
    Regardless of age, how does he know its mid 90s territory if he has never seen numbers like it? I know I am too pedantic and literal but this kind of hyperbole makes my head explode over and over again.
    Literally makes your head explode?

    How many times?
    Almost as many as Truss mishaps each day.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,044
    O/T

    "Russia 1985-1999: TraumaZone
    What it felt like to live through the collapse of communism and democracy. A series of films by Adam Curtis.
    7 Episodes Available"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p0d3hwl1/russia-19851999-traumazone
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 53% (+1)
    CON: 19% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 12 Oct.
    Changes w/ 6 Oct.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/just-nine-per-cent-have-favourable-view-liz-truss/


    SNP opposition leader. Nice.
    Tories could run with that: "Don't vote Labour, you'll end up with Sturgeon as Opposition Leader."

    To be honest the Labour left on Starmer's backbenches would be his main opposition given that big a Labour majority
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    These 'grandees' think they're ending someone else's career, but it seems like they're ending their own to me.
    We are at the stage now where I think even Grant Shapps counts as a grandee!
    Two grandees if you count the toupee.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204

    Meant to try and catch up on the British politics earlier on, but never got around to it till now. Too busy looking at accruals (interesting) and following the war in Ukraine.

    Anyway, Truss seems doomed, but equally there is no good way out for the party.
    If they try and get rid, even a coronation, its going to look awful and the members will rightly throw an absolute fit. They voted for Truss and they get..... Sunak? Mordaunt? Johnson! May!? Crazy. The party will be punished both by members ripping up their cards and leaving, and at the upcoming election which is now surely lost (though I'll always caveat it with 'events dear boy events').

    If they stick with Truss, its becoming more and more obvious that she isn't fit to be Prime Minister (some example of the Peter Principle here.... and maybe even more than that). She could lurch from crisis to crisis in the next two years before finally getting thrashed at the polls. But whether the country can cope with her for two years is another question.

    One thing I've not necessarily seen mentioned, is that, just like in the summer with Johnson's removal, the Leader of the Opposition has a role to play here.
    If I was Starmer, I'd call a Parliamentary VoNC. Force the Conservatives to back her.... or not.
    If the perceived wisdom is a GE is needed, then calling the VoNC will force backbenches to rally behind her. And Starmer can remind them of that at every opportunity.
    And if they don't.... then its a November GE.... one that Labour could win.

    But I'm not sure Starmer is up to this. He wasn't in the summer......

    If the conservative membership rip up their cards that can only be a good thing for the party. They need to get rid of the part of the membership who voted for Truss, and think it is a good idea that she remains PM.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 53% (+1)
    CON: 19% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 12 Oct.
    Changes w/ 6 Oct.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/just-nine-per-cent-have-favourable-view-liz-truss/


    SNP opposition leader. Nice.
    Tories could run with that: "Don't vote Labour, you'll end up with Sturgeon as Opposition Leader."

    To be honest the Labour left on Starmer's backbenches would be his main opposition given that big a Labour majority
    Yes Labour would probably split and be able to form both government and official LOTO. Which would be funny.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 24,451
    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 53% (+1)
    CON: 19% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 12 Oct.
    Changes w/ 6 Oct.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/just-nine-per-cent-have-favourable-view-liz-truss/


    4 Conservatives. Any idea who they are?
    And which two would be sent to the membership?
    It may need a penalty shootout.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 53% (+1)
    CON: 19% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 12 Oct.
    Changes w/ 6 Oct.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/just-nine-per-cent-have-favourable-view-liz-truss/


    SNP opposition leader. Nice.
    Ian Blackford 6 questions. PMQs will take about 3 hours.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    These 'grandees' think they're ending someone else's career, but it seems like they're ending their own to me.
    That's more likely if she stays on than if she goes.
    The Tories are fully deserving of a Humiliating defeat no matter who they pick. I think the only one that might be able to salvage them to a respectable loss (220 seats tops) is Wallace.
  • Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    Looks like he had a great hinterland. Sorry for your loss, TUD.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,259
    I think Liz's only option now is some kind of put-up-or-shut-up manoeuvre: say she'll resign if her critics can unite around a single chosen candidate, otherwise she will go on and on. What else is there to do?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600
    edited October 13
    darkage said:

    Meant to try and catch up on the British politics earlier on, but never got around to it till now. Too busy looking at accruals (interesting) and following the war in Ukraine.

    Anyway, Truss seems doomed, but equally there is no good way out for the party.
    If they try and get rid, even a coronation, its going to look awful and the members will rightly throw an absolute fit. They voted for Truss and they get..... Sunak? Mordaunt? Johnson! May!? Crazy. The party will be punished both by members ripping up their cards and leaving, and at the upcoming election which is now surely lost (though I'll always caveat it with 'events dear boy events').

    If they stick with Truss, its becoming more and more obvious that she isn't fit to be Prime Minister (some example of the Peter Principle here.... and maybe even more than that). She could lurch from crisis to crisis in the next two years before finally getting thrashed at the polls. But whether the country can cope with her for two years is another question.

    One thing I've not necessarily seen mentioned, is that, just like in the summer with Johnson's removal, the Leader of the Opposition has a role to play here.
    If I was Starmer, I'd call a Parliamentary VoNC. Force the Conservatives to back her.... or not.
    If the perceived wisdom is a GE is needed, then calling the VoNC will force backbenches to rally behind her. And Starmer can remind them of that at every opportunity.
    And if they don't.... then its a November GE.... one that Labour could win.

    But I'm not sure Starmer is up to this. He wasn't in the summer......

    If the conservative membership rip up their cards that can only be a good thing for the party. They need to get rid of the part of the membership who voted for Truss, and think it is a good idea that she remains PM.
    The Conservative membership IS the party.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    🔴 Alterations to the mini-Budget could be announced within days, rather than waiting for the wider “medium-term fiscal plan” on October 31, it is understood

    🔓 This front page story is currently free to read 👇
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/kwasi-kwarteng-insists-not-going-anywhere-liz-truss-set-reverse/
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,343
    edited October 13
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 53% (+1)
    CON: 19% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 12 Oct.
    Changes w/ 6 Oct.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/just-nine-per-cent-have-favourable-view-liz-truss/


    SNP opposition leader. Nice.
    Tories could run with that: "Don't vote Labour, you'll end up with Sturgeon as Opposition Leader."
    To be honest the Labour left on Starmer's backbenches would be his main opposition given that big a Labour majority
    But he is not going to get that big a majority, young HY. The basis for that projection is the baxterisation of an opinion poll, which was taken just after a relatively successful Labour conference, the shambles of the Conservative one, and the cancellation of the Liberal Democrat one.

    In addition, you have to bear in mind that the Lib Dem effort is not going to be evenly distributed throughout the whole country. There are seats where the result will be much better for the Lib Dems than you think.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Total LOL.


    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    ·
    3m
    TELEGRAPH: ⁦
    @KwasiKwarteng insists: I’m not going anywhere

    #TomorrowsPapersToday
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225

    I think Liz's only option now is some kind of put-up-or-shut-up manoeuvre: say she'll resign if her critics can unite around a single chosen candidate, otherwise she will go on and on. What else is there to do?

    the only thing she can do is sack her entire team
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Times reporting that Mordaunt and Sunak could launch a joint ticket to replace Liz Truss.

    One Tory MP tells me “it seems quite sensible”, another questions the exact combo but tells me some sort of unity ticket is the only option.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=5c148679c14899be060c29bc9ce8f199
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Trussonomics is the spliff that Brexit smoked after a long session in the pub.

    Tories now having a market whitey, kneeling in front of the toilet, room spinning.


    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1580669278558167041
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697
    Pro_Rata said:

    FPT: my list, going through, of all even remotely credible unity candidates beyond Wallace:


    Green, May, Hunt, Cox, Julian Smith, Brady, Barclay.

    Wrong Smith.

    #Chloe4Leader
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,042
    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine the humiliation of a Liz Truss Downing St resignation speech in the coming weeks.

    “I’m proud of the achievements of my government. We had a very successful induction day. Our first tea run went smoothly. I personally scored 84% on the health & safety at work assessment.”


    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1580663857697415168

    "The world wasn't ready for me..."
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine the humiliation of a Liz Truss Downing St resignation speech in the coming weeks.

    “I’m proud of the achievements of my government. We had a very successful induction day. Our first tea run went smoothly. I personally scored 84% on the health & safety at work assessment.”


    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1580663857697415168

    "The world wasn't ready for me..."
    She's utterly dreadful. How anyone in their right mind thought she'd be a good PM is beyond me.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    A
    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 Alterations to the mini-Budget could be announced within days, rather than waiting for the wider “medium-term fiscal plan” on October 31, it is understood

    🔓 This front page story is currently free to read 👇
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/kwasi-kwarteng-insists-not-going-anywhere-liz-truss-set-reverse/

    I feel for everyone at the OBR.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    🔺 EXCLUSIVE: Senior Conservatives are holding talks about replacing Liz Truss with a joint ticket of Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt as part of a “coronation” by MPs https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-plot-to-replace-truss-with-rishi-sunak-and-penny-mordaunt-wjdfwzzvk

    You lost, get over it. You can’t just vote again if you don’t like the first result.

    https://twitter.com/Herring1967/status/1580670067184144385
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,735
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    LAB: 53% (+1)
    CON: 19% (-1)

    Via @PeoplePolling, 12 Oct.
    Changes w/ 6 Oct.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/just-nine-per-cent-have-favourable-view-liz-truss/


    4 Conservatives. Any idea who they are?
    And which two would be sent to the membership?
    It may need a penalty shootout.
    Only a small taxi required.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    "He doesn't want to be kneecapped"

    Analysis for @skynews @ 10 https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1580670199090581505/video/1
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,735

    I think Liz's only option now is some kind of put-up-or-shut-up manoeuvre: say she'll resign if her critics can unite around a single chosen candidate, otherwise she will go on and on. What else is there to do?

    Better than resign, she could threaten to call a GE.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985
    edited October 13
    Scott_xP said:

    🔺 EXCLUSIVE: Senior Conservatives are holding talks about replacing Liz Truss with a joint ticket of Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt as part of a “coronation” by MPs https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tories-plot-to-replace-truss-with-rishi-sunak-and-penny-mordaunt-wjdfwzzvk

    You lost, get over it. You can’t just vote again if you don’t like the first result.

    https://twitter.com/Herring1967/status/1580670067184144385

    Truss as PM was implemented. No-one said anything about the duration of her tenure.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,697
    Foxy said:

    The North Evington (Leicester) by-election tonight is an interesting one. The area is heavily Asian, a mixture of Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs in that order. The Labour candidate is a supporter of Modi and RSS, with the Tory candidate a close second last time.

    It wouldn't surprise me if the Tory gain here. There are some strange politics in the area at the moment. This area was one of the centres of the recent communal violence.


    Anyone voicing support for a Fascist like Modi should be thrown out of the Labour Party. Certainly not standing as a candidate.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,735

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory MPs discussing whether they can replace Liz Truss with increasing urgency

    Grandees think they can arrange a coronation *if* Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt agree to team up

    YouGov polling finds almost half of 2019 Tories want Truss ousted

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eb045534-4b2e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=3130b41ff617eb0423ded1d66208e71c

    These 'grandees' think they're ending someone else's career, but it seems like they're ending their own to me.
    We are at the stage now where I think even Grant Shapps counts as a grandee!
    Two grandees if you count the toupee.
    A Tory and a Whig?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963
    Eabhal said:

    A

    Scott_xP said:

    🔴 Alterations to the mini-Budget could be announced within days, rather than waiting for the wider “medium-term fiscal plan” on October 31, it is understood

    🔓 This front page story is currently free to read 👇
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/13/kwasi-kwarteng-insists-not-going-anywhere-liz-truss-set-reverse/

    I feel for everyone at the OBR.
    It's ok, the Government are going to rely on Mystic Meg instead.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,304
    edited October 13
    Rishi and Penny would certainly be the opposite of the current incumbent.
    The charm team, with added TV-friendliness and likeability.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204

    darkage said:

    Meant to try and catch up on the British politics earlier on, but never got around to it till now. Too busy looking at accruals (interesting) and following the war in Ukraine.

    Anyway, Truss seems doomed, but equally there is no good way out for the party.
    If they try and get rid, even a coronation, its going to look awful and the members will rightly throw an absolute fit. They voted for Truss and they get..... Sunak? Mordaunt? Johnson! May!? Crazy. The party will be punished both by members ripping up their cards and leaving, and at the upcoming election which is now surely lost (though I'll always caveat it with 'events dear boy events').

    If they stick with Truss, its becoming more and more obvious that she isn't fit to be Prime Minister (some example of the Peter Principle here.... and maybe even more than that). She could lurch from crisis to crisis in the next two years before finally getting thrashed at the polls. But whether the country can cope with her for two years is another question.

    One thing I've not necessarily seen mentioned, is that, just like in the summer with Johnson's removal, the Leader of the Opposition has a role to play here.
    If I was Starmer, I'd call a Parliamentary VoNC. Force the Conservatives to back her.... or not.
    If the perceived wisdom is a GE is needed, then calling the VoNC will force backbenches to rally behind her. And Starmer can remind them of that at every opportunity.
    And if they don't.... then its a November GE.... one that Labour could win.

    But I'm not sure Starmer is up to this. He wasn't in the summer......

    If the conservative membership rip up their cards that can only be a good thing for the party. They need to get rid of the part of the membership who voted for Truss, and think it is a good idea that she remains PM.
    The Conservative membership IS the party.
    Yes they are part of the party.
    In the end though, the activists, MPs and donors are more important.
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 13
    The focus will now, gradually, shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag.

    We’ll see.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    I think Liz's only option now is some kind of put-up-or-shut-up manoeuvre: say she'll resign if her critics can unite around a single chosen candidate, otherwise she will go on and on. What else is there to do?

    Better than resign, she could threaten to call a GE.
    Good idea. Let's just get on with it.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Imagine the humiliation of a Liz Truss Downing St resignation speech in the coming weeks.

    “I’m proud of the achievements of my government. We had a very successful induction day. Our first tea run went smoothly. I personally scored 84% on the health & safety at work assessment.”


    https://twitter.com/KirstyStricklan/status/1580663857697415168

    "The world wasn't ready for me..."
    She's utterly dreadful. How anyone in their right mind thought she'd be a good PM is beyond me.
    It was all there in the first debate.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    ...
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,148
    edited October 13
    I've just forked out £3200 for a new boiler. I was surprised to learn that replacing an old boiler might cut your energy use by a third as new boilers are around 92% efficient. The £3200 does of course include the additional 20% VAT. Might it not have made some sense for the government to remove VAT on new home boilers? Or even to reduce it? It might this have cost less than the energy subsidy?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    Is there any polling of the Conservative membership on how well they think Truss is doing?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,985
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    Oh to have been a fly on the wall during that meeting.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 515
    edited October 13
    Latest from D Cummings, in a piece entitled "Hundreds of Auschwitz's [sic] in a hour":

    "It’s roughly 100% irrelevant to UK/US interests whether eastern UKR is controlled by the Putin-oligarchs-KGB-mafia or the Zelensky-oligarchs-KGB-mafia.

    ‘International law and the rules based order’? You mean the ‘rules based order’ that applied to us invading Iraq?

    ‘Humanitarian concern’? You mean the ‘concern’ we showed when millions got slaughtered in the middle of Africa, and we sat on our asses watching TV?

    ‘His tanks will keep going across Europe’? You mean the army that has failed so badly in Ukraine is going to defeat the whole of Europe and America using conventional weapons?

    (...)

    Every Deep State person I ask says the same thing: there is no fucking plan, the idiots in No10 just keep saying Putin must fail, Truss wants us to recapture Crimea starting World War III, the MoD has got even shitter than ever in 2022.

    (...)

    But now Professors at Oxbridge and Harvard are happy to tweet gloatingly drone footage of Russian ‘orcs’ being blown to pieces, resembling the 4chan Nazi teens they’re normally so down on. Before the war, Congress defined Azov as a neo-Nazi organisation and banned funds going to it — now our 4chan Profs retweet their propaganda while we shovel zillions to them and rebrand them as … anti-Putin so … anti-Nazi!

    People who suggest that threatening hundreds of Auschwitz’s in an hour is justified only by the most existential of interests are denounced as KGB agents and insufficiently full of hate for the enemy, sometimes by the same crowd who called me ‘mad’ for saying Putin may have blown up the Moscow flats himself to justify the Chechnya war.

    (...)

    I’ve been called mad for 20 years. My warnings, year after year, that our Idiocracy could blunder into pandemics and nuclear escalation was seen as so mad it wasn’t worth arguing with. I didn’t expect that the evidence finally convincing elite media and academia that I’m insane and/or a Putin-agent, would be my suggestion that JFK’s handling of the Cuban missile crisis (including rejecting military advice to escalate and bomb) is highly relevant to avoiding hundreds of Auschwitz’s, and that I would finally be seen as ‘beyond the pale’ for saying things like ‘welcome Russians fleeing Putin, don’t ban them from sports and arts, aren’t we supposed to oppose inflicting punishments on ethnic/national groups simply for belonging to such a group?’.
    "

    A problem is that DC seems to think the reason the current line is being taken is the idiocy of those who parrot it. It's not, though. They'll parrot whatever they're told. But 1-2 quibbles aside, all minor, he is right on the essential. And it's good to see that someone else remembers the Moscow flat bombs of 1999, which considerably assisted with Putin's ascendance to the presidency. ISTR Blair told Putin hey we know you understand our 911 pain because it's just like yours after those bombs. Funny how nobody ever called him a Putin stooge...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,441
    edited October 13
    ping said:

    The focus will now, gradually shift to Labour and Starmer.

    I think they’re up to it. And I think there’s enough buy-in to Starmers competent centrist managerialism that even the Speccie, the Mail and the express will fall into line, or at least be ambivalent.

    Perhaps not? They might take on their readers. They may go super-low and double down on the saville smears and whatever other dirt they can use.

    I don’t think so, though. I think Labour have this in the bag. We’ll see.

    What I still find utterly bizarre is that the consumer economy seems absolutely booming. I'm struggling to get hotel, restaurant bookings, concert tix etc.

    The media-bond-market complex are trying to stop economic change of tack. I'm not sure the country is in as parlous a state as some like to paint it as.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    ...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,697
    Scott_xP said:

    Power cuts this winter could cause mobile phone networks to fail. The UK’s telecoms infrastructure depends on the National Grid & not all of it has back up power. Here’s our piece for ⁦@TimesBusiness⁩

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ff4fb2ce-4b0e-11ed-8b55-aaf85c581598?shareToken=0551be613a8e3d533e047576833e9435

    Dear oh dear
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225
    To follow up on @hzeffman, have also picked up notion circulating that a Tory grandee cld convene meeting to put forward a leader agreed on by MPs, backed up by a unity cabinet of different wings of party. How you get there? 🤯 And whether it can work… but these live discussions

    https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1580673263662833664
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1580663980984762368
  • darkage said:

    Is there any polling of the Conservative membership on how well they think Truss is doing?

    Honestly, who gives a sh1t how Tory members think Truss is doing?

    A tiny group of appalling people who shouldn't have been allowed within 1000 miles of the decision, and won't again.
  • Lets assume the government does fall and the Tories appoint yet another ringer. Who from the current cabinet can expect to retain a seat around that table...?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,225

    Lets assume the government does fall and the Tories appoint yet another ringer. Who from the current cabinet can expect to retain a seat around that table...?

    Wallace
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551

    Well, that's my pal Bruce gone; into the hospice at 1pm yesterday, on the morphine pretty much immediately, turned down the respirator gradually, took the mask away at 1am today, battled on till 4pm.

    Since The Times won't be doing an obit, I will.

    Pompey boy, uncle went down on the Hood, joined the RN at 16, qualified as an artificer, worked subsequently mainly as a helicopter mechanic for Bristows.

    Serial obsessive which included rock climbing, Nordic skiing, cycling, playing the flute, jazz, opera, birdwatching, life drawing, photography, neolithic stones.

    Abiding passions Wagner, Blake, art and dressing well.

    Complicated love life.

    And just to keep it real for PB, detested the Tories and all they stand for.

    Very sorry to hear that. RIP to Bruce.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,204
    DJ41 said:

    Latest from D Cummings, in a piece entitled "Hundreds of Auschwitz's [sic] in a hour":

    "It’s roughly 100% irrelevant to UK/US interests whether eastern UKR is controlled by the Putin-oligarchs-KGB-mafia or the Zelensky-oligarchs-KGB-mafia.

    ‘International law and the rules based order’? You mean the ‘rules based order’ that applied to us invading Iraq?

    ‘Humanitarian concern’? You mean the ‘concern’ we showed when millions got slaughtered in the middle of Africa, and we sat on our asses watching TV?

    ‘His tanks will keep going across Europe’? You mean the army that has failed so badly in Ukraine is going to defeat the whole of Europe and America using conventional weapons?

    (...)

    Every Deep State person I ask says the same thing: there is no fucking plan, the idiots in No10 just keep saying Putin must fail, Truss wants us to recapture Crimea starting World War III, the MoD has got even shitter than ever in 2022.

    (...)

    But now Professors at Oxbridge and Harvard are happy to tweet gloatingly drone footage of Russian ‘orcs’ being blown to pieces, resembling the 4chan Nazi teens they’re normally so down on. Before the war, Congress defined Azov as a neo-Nazi organisation and banned funds going to it — now our 4chan Profs retweet their propaganda while we shovel zillions to them and rebrand them as … anti-Putin so … anti-Nazi!

    People who suggest that threatening hundreds of Auschwitz’s in an hour is justified only by the most existential of interests are denounced as KGB agents and insufficiently full of hate for the enemy, sometimes by the same crowd who called me ‘mad’ for saying Putin may have blown up the Moscow flats himself to justify the Chechnya war.

    (...)

    I’ve been called mad for 20 years. My warnings, year after year, that our Idiocracy could blunder into pandemics and nuclear escalation was seen as so mad it wasn’t worth arguing with. I didn’t expect that the evidence finally convincing elite media and academia that I’m insane and/or a Putin-agent, would be my suggestion that JFK’s handling of the Cuban missile crisis (including rejecting military advice to escalate and bomb) is highly relevant to avoiding hundreds of Auschwitz’s, and that I would finally be seen as ‘beyond the pale’ for saying things like ‘welcome Russians fleeing Putin, don’t ban them from sports and arts, aren’t we supposed to oppose inflicting punishments on ethnic/national groups simply for belonging to such a group?’.
    "

    A problem with this is that DC seems to think the reason the current line is being taken is the idiocy of those who parrot it. It's not, though. But one or two quibbles aside, all minor, he is right on the essential. And it's good to see that someone else remembers the Moscow flat bombs of 1999, which considerably assisted with Putin's ascendancy to the presidency. ISTR Blair told Putin hey we know you understand our 911 pain because it's just like yours after those bombs. Funny how nobody ever called him a Putin stooge...

    I thought this comment from Dom on the 'idiocracy' was very good:

    ... what does our Idiocracy do, other than hope that he’s shot and replaced by a Russian version of AOC who applies for EU membership and leads LGBTQ++ marches through Red Square with Zelensky live tweeting, finally resolving the long debate about whether ‘Russia is a European country’…? Assume he gets shot. What do we do if the person who shoots him is no AOC lookalike but a Kadyrov lookalike who says ‘Putin f**ked up by not solving this in 2014, he was too weak, I will solve it’?
This discussion has been closed.