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Another October 2008? – politicalbetting.com

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  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332

    Peter Kyle MP is claiming on Twitter that Angela Lansbury was a Labour supporter.

    Which sums up the problem with politicians, single lens the whole way. Thats why they all appear like normal people when they leave the business.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING:

    Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, says that the emergency intervention in the bond markets WILL come to an end on Friday

    He tells pension funds, which are heavily invested in UK debt: 'You've only got three days left now. You've got to get this done'

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1579908537974595584

    Not something that I am involved in, though there may be some collateral damage to markets that I am in, but surely the reason that pension companies invest in gilts is to ensure safe, albeit low returns.

    Surely creating gilt derivatives, leveraged by borrowing defeats the whole intent? Those Pension Trustees have questions to answer.



    Not necessarily. I did read a technical explanation. The issue is a mismatch between accounting and real values, so that an investment manager who performed well could end up reporting an accounting loss. Hence they bought derivatives to hedge that loss. But the details escape me at this point


    Sounds like yet another Ponzi scheme.

    Do these feckers never learn?
    M
    That’s the point. It’s absolutely not.

    The issue is at the optimal strategy is that if you expect interest rates to go up then you will expect your gilt value to go down. So you will report an accounting loss at the time your net liability is actually getting smaller. You’ve essentially got a mismatch between assets and liabilities which you try to hedge.

    The issue was the speed and the magnitude of the market moves resulted in margin calls therefore forcing pension funds to liquidate investments which exacerbated the issue
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332

    Leon said:

    On the upside I can tell PBers that I just got notably hammered in the new Soho House on 180 Strand with its rooftop swimming pool (actually being used) and London is looking superb. Just magical



    If we’re all gonna die, the greatest city in the world has never looked better




    Oh well that’s all right then. Are you twelve?
    Can't you at least take some vicarious happiness in the ability of well-connected Londoners to have fantastic nights out in expensive new private members clubs?

    What are you, A COMMIE?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited October 2022

    Peter Kyle MP is claiming on Twitter that Angela Lansbury was a Labour supporter.

    Her grandfather was Labour leader in the 1930s. I didn't know that until today, despite the name.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Yokes said:

    Peter Kyle MP is claiming on Twitter that Angela Lansbury was a Labour supporter.

    Which sums up the problem with politicians, single lens the whole way. Thats why they all appear like normal people when they leave the business.
    To be fair, statisically, we are all Labour supporters today.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited October 2022

    Yokes said:

    Peter Kyle MP is claiming on Twitter that Angela Lansbury was a Labour supporter.

    Which sums up the problem with politicians, single lens the whole way. Thats why they all appear like normal people when they leave the business.
    To be fair, statisically, we are all Labour supporters today.
    I’m not.

    I have not the slightest inclination or interest in voting for the Union barons.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360

    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This can’t go on for two years, or can it? They’ll be nothing left.

    It will go on until the possible alternatives are no longer feared as being potentially worse. At the moment Truss and Kwarteng are still in place because Tory MPs are scared that removing them so soon would damage the credibility of the Conservative Party with the voters even further, and that the eventual replacements might be even less capable.

    Things clearly have to get a lot worse to reach the point where these are risks worth taking.
    The problem is Truss. You can’t solve the problem with her in charge. They need to wake up to that. She’s not going to suddenly switch and do normal or Conservative. It’s not who she is. Until she goes the precise flavour of crazy might change, but crazy is what’s on the menu. It’s not going to settle down. She doesn’t want it to.
    The problem is more than Truss. The problem is the people who elected her - Tory members.
    If enough Tory members wake up, it will change. It was pretty close last time. You don’t need that many.

    Be inspired by Labour Starmer won over a party previously 60:40 in favour of Corbyn. That sort of shift seemed impossible.
    Why would they wake up? These are the people who gave us IDS. Given another choice they'll go for Braverman or Badenoch. They need to be made a proscribed organisation.
    They also chose Cameron.

    Both Labour and the Tories give members the final say
    It's got to stop. And Cameron really wasn't all that.

    Note the illogical asymmetry that voting out is MPs only.
    The problem is that the MPs also come up with terrible candidates. A fair-sized minority of them
    are actually criminals, and the majority are wilfully incompetent.
    Well, when you put it like that…
    I remember having dinner at which a prominent journalist was present, c.2009. The stuff he was saying about the Conservative and Labour Parliamentary parties made them sound like rival mafia families.
    Are you sure he wasn't exaggerating a bit?
    At the time, I thought, this was entertaining tosh.

    Now, well, I think he may have been correct.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360

    Sean_F said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    This can’t go on for two years, or can it? They’ll be nothing left.

    It will go on until the possible alternatives are no longer feared as being potentially worse. At the moment Truss and Kwarteng are still in place because Tory MPs are scared that removing them so soon would damage the credibility of the Conservative Party with the voters even further, and that the eventual replacements might be even less capable.

    Things clearly have to get a lot worse to reach the point where these are risks worth taking.
    The problem is Truss. You can’t solve the problem with her in charge. They need to wake up to that. She’s not going to suddenly switch and do normal or Conservative. It’s not who she is. Until she goes the precise flavour of crazy might change, but crazy is what’s on the menu. It’s not going to settle down. She doesn’t want it to.
    The problem is more than Truss. The problem is the people who elected her - Tory members.
    If enough Tory members wake up, it will change. It was pretty close last time. You don’t need that many.

    Be inspired by Labour Starmer won over a party previously 60:40 in favour of Corbyn. That sort of shift seemed impossible.
    Why would they wake up? These are the people who gave us IDS. Given another choice they'll go for Braverman or Badenoch. They need to be made a proscribed organisation.
    They also chose Cameron.

    Both Labour and the Tories give members the final say
    It's got to stop. And Cameron really wasn't all that.

    Note the illogical asymmetry that voting out is MPs only.
    The problem is that the MPs also come up with terrible candidates. A fair-sized minority of them are actually criminals, and the majority are wilfully incompetent.
    Tory MPs would almost certainly have chosen Sunak. Not perfect I'm sure but I doubt we'd be in the self-inflicted mess.
    We'd be in a different sort of mess.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,360
    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    Central London is ... unbelievable. I was out in Covent Garden, last night, and it is like nowhere on earth.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    As London mostly votes Labour and has not voted Tory since 1992 at general election level.

    It is the Midlands the Tories need to win again to even scrape back into power with most seats, not London
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    Listening to Kwasi Kwarteng, it's striking how "we are going to unleash growth" has become "we have to live within our [now shrunken] means".

    https://twitter.com/redhistorian/status/1579957801321107457?s=46&t=y8jV5R4-53bLJE4q7ZNQKg

    Nothing has shrunken more than Kwasi in the past month....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    IshmaelZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    dixiedean said:

    franklyn said:

    There are people on this site who come from all sorts of professional backgrounds, so can I please ask for your collective help in explaining, in simple terms, the concept of 'growth', by which I understand to mean (and I am happy to be corrected) the change in GDP over time. Growth, in the economic sense, appears to be universally held to be a good thing.

    Suppose someone decides to walk to work each day rather than go by bus. This saves him £20 per week, and deprives the bus company of £20 per week, so there has been (in a minute sense) a decline in economic activity, and a reduction in GDP.
    He uses the £20 saved each week to pay off a credit card debt, so his bank makes less profit, and GDP again falls a tiny amount.

    So at the end of a year GDP has declined, but the individual is better off, spending less of his money on servicing his debt, and being a stone lighter because he walks (he has cancelled his gym membership as well, and given up his pre-work Starbucks). He is fitter and happier.

    So GDP has declined, but in what sense are we worse off

    You make a good point, and its certainly swings and roundabouts on an individual basis.

    But there is a distinction in economics between microeconomics and macroeconomics. The actions of an individual fall under microeconomics, so aren't typically analysed with regards to GDP. GDP is the preserve of macroeconomics, the study of the economy or country as a whole and on average, in aggregate, GDP going up would normally be more good than bad.

    But certainly any sensible discussion of the state of the economy would involve more than just GDP. Debt or savings ratios are also factors looked at, and your individual being in less debt would show up there so that should be considered a positive there.

    Unfortunately a lot of media discussion on economics is very dumbed down and tends to run on only a few metrics, or just one, rather than a balanced overview.
    Indeed. The example of walking to work is a good one though.
    If we could engineer a situation where everyone was able to, it would cause a significant fall in GDP. And a collapse in certain sectors of the economy. But it would be wonderful for everyone's mental and physical health. And probably their productivity, too.
    Easiest way to look at it: we are a bacterium in a test tube, multiplying on a nutrient substrate. Growth is a measure of how fast we are consuming the substrate and filling up the finite space in the test tube. This can only end one way.
    Escaping the test tube and colonizing other test tubes?
    Nearest test tube is likely 100 l.y. away. Giantest step so far for mankind 1.3 light seconds.
    Bah!

    Don't think so small.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    edited October 2022
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    Central London is ... unbelievable. I was out in Covent Garden, last night, and it is like nowhere on earth.
    it is storming back to life. On my way down to the new Soho House hangout, I Ubered down Kingsway and it was flooded with beautiful new young LSE students - mostly East Asian and American. It was a carnival of hope and youth. God bless them all

    London has a remarkable magic. An unmatched mix of historic, modern and the English language. Nothing can compare

    Vlad Putin, please don't destroy the world, because my city is bloody marvellous and unique
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    Ian Bremmer seems to be suggesting his information regarding Elon Musk's foray into diplomacy comes from the horses mouth.

    Lets hope he has recordings..
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    As London mostly votes Labour and has not voted Tory since 1992 at general election level.

    It is the Midlands the Tories need to win again to even scrape back into power with most seats, not London
    You do realise he’s drunk up there tonight, and quite likely getting lucky?

    Oh look, you haven’t finished your cocoa HY, and it’s gone cold now.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671
    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    Central London is ... unbelievable. I was out in Covent Garden, last night, and it is like nowhere on earth.
    it is storming back to life. On my way down to the new Soho House hangout, I Ubered down Kingsway and it was flooded with beautiful new young LSE students - mostly East Asian and American. It was a carnival of hope and youth. God bless them all

    London has a remarkable magic. A unique mix of historic, modern and the English language. Nothing can match it

    Vlad Putin, please don't destroy the world, because my city is bloody marvellous and unique
    I'm down for work this week. Good place to eat for around £35? (Excluding drinks). I'm staying near friends in Clapham.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    Central London is ... unbelievable. I was out in Covent Garden, last night, and it is like nowhere on earth.
    it is storming back to life. On my way down to the new Soho House hangout, I Ubered down Kingsway and it was flooded with beautiful new young LSE students - mostly East Asian and American. It was a carnival of hope and youth. God bless them all

    London has a remarkable magic. A unique mix of historic, modern and the English language. Nothing can match it

    Vlad Putin, please don't destroy the world, because my city is bloody marvellous and unique
    I'm down for work this week. Good place to eat for around £35? (Excluding drinks). I'm staying near friends in Clapham.
    Not my field. TBH

    I don't eat south of the river and I don't eat south of £600

    But I have heard (sincerely) that you can get amazing ethnic food in places like Tooting, Brixton and Peckham (probably not bourgeois Clapham). As I say: personally, I've no fucking idea, you'd have to pay me to go there, I'm too old. But I honestly hear there are brilliant places



  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Adam Tooze makes the casual point that the BoE’s special monetary operation is basically a bail out of blackrock et al.

    They should be eating the loss on their stupid LDI products.

    Pretty outrageous, really.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On the upside I can tell PBers that I got notably hammered in the new Soho House on 180 Strand with its rooftop swimming pool (actually being used) and London is looking superb. Just magical

    If we’re all gonna die the greatest city in the world has never looked better


    Remember to wait at least 20 minutes after dining before entering the pool!
    It is possibly the greatest urban space I have ever been in (the photos don't do it justice). It is completely stunning. Right in the heart of London so you get these views of the Inns of Court, the City, the river, the south Bank, the Shard, ancient Westminster, all in one go, historic and modern, plus tremendous restaurants, cool bars, a rooftop swimming pool, hot women, fucketty fuck

    London is BACK. But, also, BOOM

    Also it was full of non-Brits in London for Frieze saying "OMFG this place is amazing I want to live in London, are you a member" - which is gratifying

    Finally, some Levelling Up

    London is heading towards 10 million people. Passed 9 million last year.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Andy_JS said:

    It feels like even the most loyal Tories are starting to get a bit tired of the government's incoherent policies.

    And Ms Truss has only been in office for just over a month lol...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671
    A
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    Central London is ... unbelievable. I was out in Covent Garden, last night, and it is like nowhere on earth.
    it is storming back to life. On my way down to the new Soho House hangout, I Ubered down Kingsway and it was flooded with beautiful new young LSE students - mostly East Asian and American. It was a carnival of hope and youth. God bless them all

    London has a remarkable magic. A unique mix of historic, modern and the English language. Nothing can match it

    Vlad Putin, please don't destroy the world, because my city is bloody marvellous and unique
    I'm down for work this week. Good place to eat for around £35? (Excluding drinks). I'm staying near friends in Clapham.
    Not my field. TBH

    I don't eat south of the river and I don't eat south of £600

    But I have heard (sincerely) that you can get amazing ethnic food in places like Tooting, Brixton and Peckham (probably not bourgeois Clapham). As I say: personally, I've no fucking idea, you'd have to pay me to go there, I'm too old. But I honestly hear there are brilliant places



    Heh. Just trying to bring you back to earth.

    You ever wonder if your obsession with nuclear war (relative to the rest of us) is because it's one of the very few things that could have a material impact on your life? For 95% of the population, it's just another thing on the list.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    Central London is ... unbelievable. I was out in Covent Garden, last night, and it is like nowhere on earth.
    it is storming back to life. On my way down to the new Soho House hangout, I Ubered down Kingsway and it was flooded with beautiful new young LSE students - mostly East Asian and American. It was a carnival of hope and youth. God bless them all

    London has a remarkable magic. A unique mix of historic, modern and the English language. Nothing can match it

    Vlad Putin, please don't destroy the world, because my city is bloody marvellous and unique
    I'm down for work this week. Good place to eat for around £35? (Excluding drinks). I'm staying near friends in Clapham.
    Dear GF likes eating in the https://harwoodarms.com

    I prefer https://theblacklock.com/menus/ which I guess is a “chop shop”

    Don’t know if that helps.

    I ❤️ London
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,158
    Here's a poll that may be a complete outlier... or... woahhhh...

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3682565-lee-leading-mcmullin-by-4-points-in-utah-senate-race-poll/

    Lee's lead in Utah down to just four points - and it's a Deseret News poll, which is pretty credible.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,332
    Eabhal said:

    A

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    Central London is ... unbelievable. I was out in Covent Garden, last night, and it is like nowhere on earth.
    it is storming back to life. On my way down to the new Soho House hangout, I Ubered down Kingsway and it was flooded with beautiful new young LSE students - mostly East Asian and American. It was a carnival of hope and youth. God bless them all

    London has a remarkable magic. A unique mix of historic, modern and the English language. Nothing can match it

    Vlad Putin, please don't destroy the world, because my city is bloody marvellous and unique
    I'm down for work this week. Good place to eat for around £35? (Excluding drinks). I'm staying near friends in Clapham.
    Not my field. TBH

    I don't eat south of the river and I don't eat south of £600

    But I have heard (sincerely) that you can get amazing ethnic food in places like Tooting, Brixton and Peckham (probably not bourgeois Clapham). As I say: personally, I've no fucking idea, you'd have to pay me to go there, I'm too old. But I honestly hear there are brilliant places



    Heh. Just trying to bring you back to earth.

    You ever wonder if your obsession with nuclear war (relative to the rest of us) is because it's one of the very few things that could have a material impact on your life? For 95% of the population, it's just another thing on the list.
    I exaggerate my good times and my bad times, for humorous effect, on PB. I am absolutely not insulated from bad stuff. I have kids with major troubles and parents that go demented and die, like anyone else. And the last few years have been PARTICULARLY SHIT

    Nonetheless, yes, I maybe have it easier than 99% of humanity, and I certainly know I am lucky. And I also know this luck won't last, it never does, we all die

    But always celebrate the good times - because there are plenty of bad times. And today has been especially fun. I wrote an article for the Gazette. Arranged a trip to Iceland. Went to an amazing new venue in my beloved London, a great world city which looks in rude autumn health. Glory be. God bless all PB-ers

    Good night xx
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    Late to the thread, but a point not mentioned is that the Government actually want to be seen as very different from the Bank, so that when interest rates go up they can say oh, how unfortunate, the Bank is being very unhelpful. I doubt if it will work, but they think it's politically better for them than being seen as a team.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Late to the thread, but a point not mentioned is that the Government actually want to be seen as very different from the Bank, so that when interest rates go up they can say oh, how unfortunate, the Bank is being very unhelpful. I doubt if it will work, but they think it's politically better for them than being seen as a team.

    People, Tory’s in particular, bash the bank for not pushing up rates far earlier, far higher, to nip the inflation issue in the bud - across the pond they certainly chose a different path. But now we can see and feel the pain caused by higher rates, on a culture it’s not been experienced for a generation or more, should the bank in fact be in credit for trying to limit the need for rises as much as possible appreciating the hurt it would deliver?
  • FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW

    Governor Bailey really meant what he said about the pension funds having to accept that the government bond purchases are over … BBC briefly caught up with him on way out of the speech, and he said there was an “important task now for the funds to ensure they are done”… https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1579933041568665600/photo/1

    Bailey to BBC News: “We are doing everything to ensure financial stability and you have my assurance on that…” asked about the market response.. “They have got three days, this has to be done for the sake of financial stability”

    surprised by the market reaction. Bank has been clear the operation was over this weekend… its a message for the funds that do have the solvency but not the liquidity to make necessary adjustments…. But it is a message with consequences for the Government too..

    In other words, right from the beginning the Bank of England have been clear that this is not an attempt to artificially manage the gilt rate, or stand in the way of a repricing to reflect new fiscal policies…. Ie its not going to QE this away, given the inflation situation.

    Whether or not you agree with the ongoing gilt sales policy, that is at least consistent.
    As far as I understand it (please correct me if I’m wrong) the emergency gilt purchases are confined to the pension funds with solvency problems rather than being open market interventions ?
    If I understand Bailey correctly he's in effect saying to pension funds, if you individually become insolvent that's not my problem - it's what the Pension Protection Fund is there for. If hundreds of pension funds become insolvent that's a systemic risk affecting the economy, which is my problem. The gilt purchases were dealing with the second.

    Now administrators of struggling pension funds probably would prefer the Bank of England to bail them out than to declare insolvency. So he's taking a hard and potentially risky line with them. The fact he's dealing with an irresponsible government is also probably informing that hard line.
    To hark back to Cyclefree's very good thread header, it's a line that should have been taken with Northern Rock and others in 2008. Let the institution fail but protect the depositors.
    Per my earlier comment, the risk was the whole banking system, on which the economy depends, seizing up (which at another level was basically what turned the GFC into the GFC).
  • Late to the thread, but a point not mentioned is that the Government actually want to be seen as very different from the Bank, so that when interest rates go up they can say oh, how unfortunate, the Bank is being very unhelpful. I doubt if it will work, but they think it's politically better for them than being seen as a team.

    Interesting that you mention this Nick. I actually thought to myself it was almost too "convenient" - as if Bailey wants to bring blame upon himself.

    I mean he deserves plenty of it, but human nature would surely not usually be to draw attention to oneself in such a way. Then again the "conventional" news won't cover it, just the financial press.

    This is a very interesting time to be alive.
  • Also why is vanilla forums now in UK time? Maybe I'm forgetting but I could have sworn it's usually GMT.
  • Also why is vanilla forums now in UK time? Maybe I'm forgetting but I could have sworn it's usually GMT.

    No recent change, I think. Are you sure the difference is not at your end? Have you recently acquired a new phone or laptop that might be set up differently?
  • Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On the upside I can tell PBers that I got notably hammered in the new Soho House on 180 Strand with its rooftop swimming pool (actually being used) and London is looking superb. Just magical

    If we’re all gonna die the greatest city in the world has never looked better


    Remember to wait at least 20 minutes after dining before entering the pool!
    It is possibly the greatest urban space I have ever been in (the photos don't do it justice). It is completely stunning. Right in the heart of London so you get these views of the Inns of Court, the City, the river, the south Bank, the Shard, ancient Westminster, all in one go, historic and modern, plus tremendous restaurants, cool bars, a rooftop swimming pool, hot women, fucketty fuck

    London is BACK. But, also, BOOM

    Also it was full of non-Brits in London for Frieze saying "OMFG this place is amazing I want to live in London, are you a member" - which is gratifying

    Finally, some Levelling Up

    London is heading towards 10 million people. Passed 9 million last year.
    And yet the government is fully committed to strangling the London golden goose by failing to build housing, in a misguided attempt to win over demented pensioners in constituencies that will never ever vote Tory.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    ping said:

    Adam Tooze makes the casual point that the BoE’s special monetary operation is basically a bail out of blackrock et al.

    They should be eating the loss on their stupid LDI products.

    Pretty outrageous, really.

    Notable how much of the foreign commentary about this, after the initial event, isn’t about the incompetence of Truss & Kwasi, but instead surprise and confusion about how our pension schemes could end up arranged in this fashion.
  • ping said:

    I think the vanilla timing changes from GMT to local time, when you log in.

    Personally almost always access PB via my pc. Periodically I bring up PB webpage, and instead of seeing Seattle time, it has what I presumed was London time, but which is likely GMT.

    That tells me that I need to log in again, in order to make comments. When I do, time is my local.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On the upside I can tell PBers that I got notably hammered in the new Soho House on 180 Strand with its rooftop swimming pool (actually being used) and London is looking superb. Just magical

    If we’re all gonna die the greatest city in the world has never looked better


    Remember to wait at least 20 minutes after dining before entering the pool!
    It is possibly the greatest urban space I have ever been in (the photos don't do it justice). It is completely stunning. Right in the heart of London so you get these views of the Inns of Court, the City, the river, the south Bank, the Shard, ancient Westminster, all in one go, historic and modern, plus tremendous restaurants, cool bars, a rooftop swimming pool, hot women, fucketty fuck

    London is BACK. But, also, BOOM

    Also it was full of non-Brits in London for Frieze saying "OMFG this place is amazing I want to live in London, are you a member" - which is gratifying

    Finally, some Levelling Up

    London is heading towards 10 million people. Passed 9 million last year.
    And yet the government is fully committed to strangling the London golden goose by failing to build housing, in a misguided attempt to win over demented pensioners in constituencies that will never ever vote Tory.
    London rarely votes Tory, most constituencies with lots of pensioners do vote Tory
  • rcs1000 said:

    Here's a poll that may be a complete outlier... or... woahhhh...

    https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3682565-lee-leading-mcmullin-by-4-points-in-utah-senate-race-poll/

    Lee's lead in Utah down to just four points - and it's a Deseret News poll, which is pretty credible.

    Says 5% say they plan to write in a candidate. Democrats presumably?

    Seems clear that IF the Reps are split in fashion indicated, then Dems could make the difference in this race, with no D on the ballot. IF they vote for US Senate (instead of skipping the race) and IF they vote for McMullan.

    Personally hope they do.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    carnforth said:

    ping said:

    Adam Tooze makes the casual point that the BoE’s special monetary operation is basically a bail out of blackrock et al.

    They should be eating the loss on their stupid LDI products.

    Pretty outrageous, really.

    Notable how much of the foreign commentary about this, after the initial event, isn’t about the incompetence of Truss & Kwasi, but instead surprise and confusion about how our pension schemes could end up arranged in this fashion.
    Yes I agree. Some people merely wish to throw rotten fruit at Truss and Kwarteng regardless the truth here is something wrong with our pension scheme arrangements for a very long time.

    So what exactly is the nub of our pension schemes arrangement that causes problem here where foreign schemes wouldn’t.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    We've all misread the Levelling Up policy

    The idea was to Level UP London to being on a level greater than any other city on earth, whose magnificent glory would vaguely reflect down on grateful proles in Warrington or Wick or wherever, who cares, fuck those hairy-nosed provincial twats. And the government has succeeded. London is levelled UP

    So I have no idea why the Tories are polling so badly. Mad. London looks miraculous

    Central London is ... unbelievable. I was out in Covent Garden, last night, and it is like nowhere on earth.
    it is storming back to life. On my way down to the new Soho House hangout, I Ubered down Kingsway and it was flooded with beautiful new young LSE students - mostly East Asian and American. It was a carnival of hope and youth. God bless them all

    London has a remarkable magic. A unique mix of historic, modern and the English language. Nothing can match it

    Vlad Putin, please don't destroy the world, because my city is bloody marvellous and unique
    I'm down for work this week. Good place to eat for around £35? (Excluding drinks). I'm staying near friends in Clapham.
    Go to Jaffna House in Tooting, a few stops south on the Northern Line. The best Sri Lankan food. For £35 you could eat like a king.
  • Indian trade deal in peril after Suella Braverman migrant comments

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr (£££)

    India has reacted badly to remarks Suella Braverman made in The Spectator, apparently, about Indians overstaying.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "Tulsi Gabbard quits Democratic party, attacking ‘elitist cabal of warmongers’
    Former Hawaii congresswoman and 2020 presidential hopeful says party is dominated by those espousing ‘cowardly wokeness’

    The former congresswoman and 2020 presidential hopeful Tulsi Gabbard has announced her departure from the Democratic party, calling it an “elitist cabal of warmongers”. In a video announcement posted to Twitter, she said: “I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic party that is under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers who are driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue and stoking anti-white racism.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/11/tulsi-gabbard-quits-democratic-party
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Andy_JS said:

    "Tulsi Gabbard quits Democratic party, attacking ‘elitist cabal of warmongers’
    Former Hawaii congresswoman and 2020 presidential hopeful says party is dominated by those espousing ‘cowardly wokeness’

    The former congresswoman and 2020 presidential hopeful Tulsi Gabbard has announced her departure from the Democratic party, calling it an “elitist cabal of warmongers”. In a video announcement posted to Twitter, she said: “I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic party that is under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers who are driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue and stoking anti-white racism.”"

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/11/tulsi-gabbard-quits-democratic-party

    She's been running for Trump's VP for years.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    carnforth said:

    ping said:

    Adam Tooze makes the casual point that the BoE’s special monetary operation is basically a bail out of blackrock et al.

    They should be eating the loss on their stupid LDI products.

    Pretty outrageous, really.

    Notable how much of the foreign commentary about this, after the initial event, isn’t about the incompetence of Truss & Kwasi, but instead surprise and confusion about how our pension schemes could end up arranged in this fashion.
    Yes I agree. Some people merely wish to throw rotten fruit at Truss and Kwarteng regardless the truth here is something wrong with our pension scheme arrangements for a very long time.

    So what exactly is the nub of our pension schemes arrangement that causes problem here where foreign schemes wouldn’t.
    What and when were the legislative and pension practice way markers that brought us to this?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    On the upside I can tell PBers that I got notably hammered in the new Soho House on 180 Strand with its rooftop swimming pool (actually being used) and London is looking superb. Just magical

    If we’re all gonna die the greatest city in the world has never looked better


    Remember to wait at least 20 minutes after dining before entering the pool!
    It is possibly the greatest urban space I have ever been in (the photos don't do it justice). It is completely stunning. Right in the heart of London so you get these views of the Inns of Court, the City, the river, the south Bank, the Shard, ancient Westminster, all in one go, historic and modern, plus tremendous restaurants, cool bars, a rooftop swimming pool, hot women, fucketty fuck

    London is BACK. But, also, BOOM

    Also it was full of non-Brits in London for Frieze saying "OMFG this place is amazing I want to live in London, are you a member" - which is gratifying

    Finally, some Levelling Up

    London is heading towards 10 million people. Passed 9 million last year.
    And yet the government is fully committed to strangling the London golden goose by failing to build housing, in a misguided attempt to win over demented pensioners in constituencies that will never ever vote Tory.
    which constituencies are these? Ones containing a lot of pensioners tend to be bluest of blue...
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Tax the young - and the unborn - to shovel yet more money to the tory client vote….

    “The government may may have to step in to rescue stricken pension funds itself. Nick Macpherson, a former Treasury official, said on Twitter: “It is not the Bank of England’s job to bail out pension funds. But history suggests it’s a job the government will take on and it will be working on a scheme right now. Sadly, this can only add to the state’s liabilities and to upward pressure on interest rates.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-12/bailey-puts-boe-credibility-on-line-with-vow-to-end-gilt-buying
  • New thread.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Yokes said:

    Ian Bremmer seems to be suggesting his information regarding Elon Musk's foray into diplomacy comes from the horses mouth.

    Lets hope he has recordings..

    Musk is such a liar that I wouldn't be surprised if he made it all up to a journo. "Look, I talk to important people!"
    But I also would not be surprised if Musk had talked to Putin as claimed.
    Or if the journo made it up....
  • Indian trade deal in peril after Suella Braverman migrant comments

    Liz Truss’s flagship trade deal with India is on the “verge of collapse” after Indian ministers reacted furiously to comments by Suella Braverman criticising migrants from their country.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-trade-deal-in-peril-after-suella-braverman-migrant-comments-bpgkw6prr (£££)

    India has reacted badly to remarks Suella Braverman made in The Spectator, apparently, about Indians overstaying.

    Bloody Indians, eh? :lol:
This discussion has been closed.