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Is Liz Truss still a republican? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330
    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    Roll of a die. Seems apt.

    It's not all bad


    "Many detailed estimates of nuclear war impact have been published in the academic literature. Xia et al (Nature Food, 3, 586–596, 2022) estimate that nuclear winter would kill about 99% of all Russians, Americans, Europeans and Chinese, with the most powerful post-war remaining economies being in South America, Southern Africa and Oceania."

    It's a good time to be Peruvian. and they've not had many decent breaks recently
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    HYUFD said:

    Absurd article by TSE. Every PM announces a list of peers after they resign and it is up to the Monarch to appoint them not the next PM. Far from damaging the monarchy all Truss annoying Boris would do is shift him and his supporters to the Sunsk camp which via Shapps and Gove is already plotting to remove the PM. If Dorries has her peerage rejected, despite being a Truss supporter from the outset, that would shift her too to the rebels camp.

    On the matter of proroguation of Parliament, personally I don't think King Charles would have agreed to it unlike his mother. While he knows he is a constitutional monarch he also knows he can use his role to uphold the constitution and as the Supreme Court confirmed he would have been right on that

    But if he upholds the constitution by disobeying his PM he has screwed up because he has overthrown the constitution by disobeying his PM.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @BartholomewRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964

    Carnyx said:

    FF43 said:

    Think King Charles would be wise not to approve this move. The MPs concerned are at liberty to withdraw their acceptance of peerages on this round and trust Truss to renominate them for peerages at a later date.

    Isn't it a Morton's Fork, though?

    KC obeys what Ms T apparently proposes = political intervention
    KC refuses what Ms T ditto = political intervention
    KC does what the PM suggests is not a political intervention, is it?

    Opponents of the PM frequently seem to want the monarch to intervene to object to what the PM is doing, like with prorogation of Parliament and Boris. That's not the monarch's place to do.

    If the monarch wants to object to what the PM is doing, they should abdicate and seek elected office themselves.
    The monarch is perfectly entitled to ensure the constitution is upheld, as head of state, if the PM is acting outside it by trying to bypass Parliament for instance. After all the PM is only the King's chief minister after all
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    I am always nervous of making what might be deemed a sexist comment but Truss has fairly blossomed once she picked up the Tory flag, hasn't she?

    Politically?
    No.
    And the main takeaway shouldn't be about her appearance but about the difference between her speaking style when she felt free to say what she thought and be herself, and her wooden style now when she's saying what she thinks the moment needs
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    Whatever happens it is a moment of evolution. A point in history.
    Any one of us could be gone in half an hour. If lots of us have our last half hours together, so be it.
    I don't think Putin will take an off ramp. If he does it will be his identified and defined off ramp, not one presented to him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Absurd article by TSE. Every PM announces a list of peers after they resign and it is up to the Monarch to appoint them not the next PM. Far from damaging the monarchy all Truss annoying Boris would do is shift him and his supporters to the Sunsk camp which via Shapps and Gove is already plotting to remove the PM. If Dorries has her peerage rejected, despite being a Truss supporter from the outset, that would shift her too to the rebels camp.

    On the matter of proroguation of Parliament, personally I don't think King Charles would have agreed to it unlike his mother. While he knows he is a constitutional monarch he also knows he can use his role to uphold the constitution and as the Supreme Court confirmed he would have been right on that

    But if he upholds the constitution by disobeying his PM he has screwed up because he has overthrown the constitution by disobeying his PM.
    No he hasn't you ignoramus. Our constitution is based on Crown in Parliament not PM in Parliament.

    The PM is merely the King's chief minister, nothing more
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330

    "Renowned MIT professor Max Tegmark calculates there's a "one in six chance of an imminent global nuclear war" that would essentially wipe out all life on earth.

    I don't think most people realize just how insanely dangerous this moment in history is."

    https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1579028319022256128?s=20&t=AYBvQLQ-BcAAXC9DjKFdBg
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @BartholomewRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,648
    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    Roll of a die. Seems apt.

    It's not all bad


    "Many detailed estimates of nuclear war impact have been published in the academic literature. Xia et al (Nature Food, 3, 586–596, 2022) estimate that nuclear winter would kill about 99% of all Russians, Americans, Europeans and Chinese, with the most powerful post-war remaining economies being in South America, Southern Africa and Oceania."

    It's a good time to be Peruvian. and they've not had many decent breaks recently
    How many nuclear bombs do people think it would take to cause a nuclear winter? In the 50s and 60s they were exploding them all the time.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @BartholomewRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    yes and people seem a lot more worried about sodding covid and fretting about getting it this winter - weird country we live in
  • pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @BartholomewRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    Given how wrong Leon has been on so many things it is reassuring to know he is convinced we're all going to die in a nuclear holocaust kind of guarantees we won't.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    If we have these horrible things, it's quite likely at some point someone will use them (again). Not sure saying, Putin, you can have Ukraine helps reduce the odds of eventual nuclear Armageddon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330


    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    Roll of a die. Seems apt.

    It's not all bad


    "Many detailed estimates of nuclear war impact have been published in the academic literature. Xia et al (Nature Food, 3, 586–596, 2022) estimate that nuclear winter would kill about 99% of all Russians, Americans, Europeans and Chinese, with the most powerful post-war remaining economies being in South America, Southern Africa and Oceania."

    It's a good time to be Peruvian. and they've not had many decent breaks recently
    How many nuclear bombs do people think it would take to cause a nuclear winter? In the 50s and 60s they were exploding them all the time.
    I looked into this. There is scientific debate. Some boffins think the whole idea of nuclear winter is bollocks, but others think it would be even nastier than the central predictions, and could wipe out all advanced life on the planet, as the climate goes into Total Spaz Out Mode

    It seems safe to err on the side of caution and presume the effect of all out nuke war would be pretty fucking disastrous
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @BartholomewRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    I get that you don't want to think about the howling wolf at the door, nonetheless there is, I am afraid, a wolf howling at the door
  • pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @Bartholomew,LeRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    Given how wrong Leon has been on so many things it is reassuring to know he is convinced we're all going to die in a nuclear holocaust kind of guarantees we won't.
    Actually for all his OTT (but entertaining ) drama ,Leon is very insightful about things that matter
  • So when does Kanye West endorse Jeremy Corbyn?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @BartholomewRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    You mean somebody on Twitter said something that's actually right for once?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Absurd article by TSE. Every PM announces a list of peers after they resign and it is up to the Monarch to appoint them not the next PM. Far from damaging the monarchy all Truss annoying Boris would do is shift him and his supporters to the Sunsk camp which via Shapps and Gove is already plotting to remove the PM. If Dorries has her peerage rejected, despite being a Truss supporter from the outset, that would shift her too to the rebels camp.

    On the matter of proroguation of Parliament, personally I don't think King Charles would have agreed to it unlike his mother. While he knows he is a constitutional monarch he also knows he can use his role to uphold the constitution and as the Supreme Court confirmed he would have been right on that

    But if he upholds the constitution by disobeying his PM he has screwed up because he has overthrown the constitution by disobeying his PM.
    No he hasn't you ignoramus. Our constitution is based on Crown in Parliament not PM in Parliament.

    The PM is merely the King's chief minister, nothing more
    Insults, insults. But you are going on primitive and ancient theory. It's actual political *reality* I am thinking of.

  • pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @Bartholomew,LeRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    Given how wrong Leon has been on so many things it is reassuring to know he is convinced we're all going to die in a nuclear holocaust kind of guarantees we won't.
    Actually for all his OTT (but entertaining ) drama ,Leon is very insightful about things that matter
    You mean his comments about Covid in March 2020 when he fled his home demanding lockdown and quoting some projections that we'd all die from Covid-19 by October 2020?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @Bartholomew,LeRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    Given how wrong Leon has been on so many things it is reassuring to know he is convinced we're all going to die in a nuclear holocaust kind of guarantees we won't.
    Actually for all his OTT (but entertaining ) drama ,Leon is very insightful about things that matter
    No he's not.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330
    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,718
    Leon said:


    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    Roll of a die. Seems apt.

    It's not all bad


    "Many detailed estimates of nuclear war impact have been published in the academic literature. Xia et al (Nature Food, 3, 586–596, 2022) estimate that nuclear winter would kill about 99% of all Russians, Americans, Europeans and Chinese, with the most powerful post-war remaining economies being in South America, Southern Africa and Oceania."

    It's a good time to be Peruvian. and they've not had many decent breaks recently
    How many nuclear bombs do people think it would take to cause a nuclear winter? In the 50s and 60s they were exploding them all the time.
    I looked into this. There is scientific debate. Some boffins think the whole idea of nuclear winter is bollocks, but others think it would be even nastier than the central predictions, and could wipe out all advanced life on the planet, as the climate goes into Total Spaz Out Mode

    It seems safe to err on the side of caution and presume the effect of all out nuke war would be pretty fucking disastrous
    General Buck Turgidson has the answers.
  • pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @Bartholomew,LeRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    Given how wrong Leon has been on so many things it is reassuring to know he is convinced we're all going to die in a nuclear holocaust kind of guarantees we won't.
    Actually for all his OTT (but entertaining ) drama ,Leon is very insightful about things that matter
    You mean his comments about Covid in March 2020 when he fled his home demanding lockdown and quoting some projections that we'd all die from Covid-19 by October 2020?
    I believe Leon (or an incarnation of Leon) did advise to sell any shares before the FTSE crashed becasue of covid
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @BartholomewRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    I get that you don't want to think about the howling wolf at the door, nonetheless there is, I am afraid, a wolf howling at the door
    Are you sure it's not howling at the moon?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @BartholomewRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    I get that you don't want to think about the howling wolf at the door, nonetheless there is, I am afraid, a wolf howling at the door
    We know. The problem is that you’re the only man on Earth who can make the prospect utterly tedious. One great thing about nuclear annihilation is that it is about the only thing guaranteed to make you STFU. Bring it on.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited October 2022

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail.What advice would you give your teenage daughter for instance if she was threatened with a knife and told to hand over her phone? I woudl tell mine to hand it over because whilst its not nice to reward bullies and muggers its better than being killed
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Absurd article by TSE. Every PM announces a list of peers after they resign and it is up to the Monarch to appoint them not the next PM. Far from damaging the monarchy all Truss annoying Boris would do is shift him and his supporters to the Sunsk camp which via Shapps and Gove is already plotting to remove the PM. If Dorries has her peerage rejected, despite being a Truss supporter from the outset, that would shift her too to the rebels camp.

    On the matter of proroguation of Parliament, personally I don't think King Charles would have agreed to it unlike his mother. While he knows he is a constitutional monarch he also knows he can use his role to uphold the constitution and as the Supreme Court confirmed he would have been right on that

    But if he upholds the constitution by disobeying his PM he has screwed up because he has overthrown the constitution by disobeying his PM.
    No he hasn't you ignoramus. Our constitution is based on Crown in Parliament not PM in Parliament.

    The PM is merely the King's chief minister, nothing more
    Insults, insults. But you are going on primitive and ancient theory. It's actual political *reality* I am thinking of.

    Actual political reality is our constitution is still based on Crown in Parliament. The King appoints the PM and their government, the King can dismiss them to if they no longer retain the confidence of Parliament or try and ignore Parliament
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330
    Remember, TRUMP WAS RIGHT ABOUT LAB LEAK. And he was right about Germany and Nordstream

    "Trump on Ukraine: "We must demand the immediate negotiation of a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine or we will end up in World War Three. And there will be nothing left of our planet -- all because stupid people didn't have a clue... They don't understand the power of nuclear.""

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1578944343851044868?s=20&t=AYBvQLQ-BcAAXC9DjKFdBg
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    edited October 2022

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Why not?

    Just because the Ukrainians are not all saints doesn't mean they're not in the right here.

    Moreover, it is *most definitely* in the interests of everyone that people get the message violently invading your neighbours, threatening them with nukes, committing mass murders and mass rapes and generally behaving like the reincarnation of Genghis Khan will not be rewarded with success.

    It's even in the interests of China and North Korea, because it might cause them to think twice before doing something that would not develop to their advantage.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    Remember, TRUMP WAS RIGHT ABOUT LAB LEAK. And he was right about Germany and Nordstream

    "Trump on Ukraine: "We must demand the immediate negotiation of a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine or we will end up in World War Three. And there will be nothing left of our planet -- all because stupid people didn't have a clue... They don't understand the power of nuclear.""

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1578944343851044868?s=20&t=AYBvQLQ-BcAAXC9DjKFdBg

    That would be the Trump that tried to blackmail Ukraine?

    This is why you are such a ludicrous popinjay.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump–Ukraine_scandal
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Absurd article by TSE. Every PM announces a list of peers after they resign and it is up to the Monarch to appoint them not the next PM. Far from damaging the monarchy all Truss annoying Boris would do is shift him and his supporters to the Sunsk camp which via Shapps and Gove is already plotting to remove the PM. If Dorries has her peerage rejected, despite being a Truss supporter from the outset, that would shift her too to the rebels camp.

    On the matter of proroguation of Parliament, personally I don't think King Charles would have agreed to it unlike his mother. While he knows he is a constitutional monarch he also knows he can use his role to uphold the constitution and as the Supreme Court confirmed he would have been right on that

    But if he upholds the constitution by disobeying his PM he has screwed up because he has overthrown the constitution by disobeying his PM.
    No he hasn't you ignoramus. Our constitution is based on Crown in Parliament not PM in Parliament.

    The PM is merely the King's chief minister, nothing more
    Insults, insults. But you are going on primitive and ancient theory. It's actual political *reality* I am thinking of.

    Actual political reality is our constitution is still based on Crown in Parliament. The King appoints the PM and their government, the King can dismiss them to if they no longer retain the confidence of Parliament or try and ignore Parliament
    But you've basically just admitted that QE2 was wrong to obey her PM when he prorogated parliament. So why do we have this expensive monarchy business if it goes wrong at critical times anyway?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330
    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Leon said:

    pigeon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    its hard to be precise with these things but the odds feel to me about right , at this lebvel of probability we really need to step back and do what we can at our end even if it means Putin gets away with it
    And now you will get the Combined Sofa Militia of PB, led by General @TSE and Corporal @BartholomewRoberts calling you a "fucking appeaser"
    Please, I'd be a Marshal, not some mere general.

    Plus, you are a fucking appeaser.

    Your panty wetting routine is amusing, go watch Threads again.
    It's not amusing in the least, it's deeply bloody tedious.

    Repeating "we're all going to die because some bellend on Twitter says so" on an endless loop does not constitute comedy.
    I get that you don't want to think about the howling wolf at the door, nonetheless there is, I am afraid, a wolf howling at the door
    As has been the case since the 1950s
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.

    But the idea that if you "legalise and regulate, you remove the problem immediately" strikes me as dangerously naïve. You have a multi-billion pound industry run by some of the nastiest, toughest and yes, most ingenious people around. The idea that they are just going to retire en masse is for the birds. They will say the licensed product is a very poor high compared to theirs. And I suspect they will be right.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,269
    IshmaelZ said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    split it by THC content?

    It is all bollocks though. If we can't prevent cocaine getting from South America to here how on earth are we expected to put a lid on something growable here? You might say: Lock the whole cdountry down like a high security prison, but high security prisons are awash with drugs.

    Energy crisis is going to push up the prices, mind.
    The sensible thing is to legalise drugs and making learning about using them compulsory at school.

    Given the result of sex education - which seems to have resulted in a generation who don’t know how to have a relationship - compulsory drug education would result in a generation who don’t know how to take drugs.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    Remember, TRUMP WAS RIGHT ABOUT LAB LEAK. And he was right about Germany and Nordstream

    "Trump on Ukraine: "We must demand the immediate negotiation of a peaceful end to the war in Ukraine or we will end up in World War Three. And there will be nothing left of our planet -- all because stupid people didn't have a clue... They don't understand the power of nuclear.""

    https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1578944343851044868?s=20&t=AYBvQLQ-BcAAXC9DjKFdBg

    What, he agreed that it emerged from Wuhan Market? Huge if true

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited October 2022

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    I don't believe any of these forecasts about the end of civilisation.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
    It’s been there since the late 40s. What have you been doing all your life?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.

    But the idea that if you "legalise and regulate, you remove the problem immediately" strikes me as dangerously naïve. You have a multi-billion pound industry run by some of the nastiest, toughest and yes, most ingenious people around. The idea that they are just going to retire en masse is for the birds. They will say the licensed product is a very poor high compared to theirs. And I suspect they will be right.
    Well you literally do remove the problem immediately. I have no doubt that 90%+ of demand in the market would buy from legal, known and controlled sources.

    Think this through. If you take drugs, you have the option of 1) buying something that you know is exactly what it says it is, or 2) buying something off a criminal that you have no idea of what it really is, where it came from, etc. What would you choose?

    Some will choose 2) for the promise of a "better high" sure, but those same people wouldn't be put off by any sort of criminal sanction anyway.

    You can get stronger alcohol if you distil it yourself, but who can be arsed with that?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330
    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
    I'm not urging anyone to fight this war. I am happy with supporting Ukraine like we are doing. What I am criticising are those who are happy to give Putin whatever he wants and damn the Ukrainians because they are worried that he might attack us. Meanwhile Ukrainians are killed and raped.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    i think PB is over populated (per capita so to speak) with pretty juvenile keyboard warriors types and it tends to show with this sort of thing .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Because we've closer to nuclear war than a 1 in 6 for other parts in history.

    Just imagine if social media existed during the Cuban Missile Crisis, Able Archer 83, or Korean Air Lines Flight 007.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Your logic suggests that we should let other nuclear powers do whatever they want in case they nuke us. Where does it end? Where is the red line?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.

    But the idea that if you "legalise and regulate, you remove the problem immediately" strikes me as dangerously naïve. You have a multi-billion pound industry run by some of the nastiest, toughest and yes, most ingenious people around. The idea that they are just going to retire en masse is for the birds. They will say the licensed product is a very poor high compared to theirs. And I suspect they will be right.
    Well you literally do remove the problem immediately. I have no doubt that 90%+ of demand in the market would buy from legal, known and controlled sources.

    Think this through. If you take drugs, you have the option of 1) buying something that you know is exactly what it says it is, or 2) buying something off a criminal that you have no idea of what it really is, where it came from, etc. What would you choose?

    Some will choose 2) for the promise of a "better high" sure, but those same people wouldn't be put off by any sort of criminal sanction anyway.

    You can get stronger alcohol if you distil it yourself, but who can be arsed with that?
    That was what happened when they abolished Prohibition in the States. Death toll went down very considerably - much less dodgy stuff like wood alcohol sloshing around.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
    Mate, they have lost their minds. Genuinely

    I think a lot of it is just primitive fear. This is such a horrible prospect it invokes deep fear and loathing, and irrational aggression, and also large dollops of denial. Not going to happen! Don't think about it! Kill Putin!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    This has got me thinking (OK, it's a Sunday). When was the last by-election caused by an MP - let alone 9 - being elevated to the Lords? Could it be as far back as the 1950s when a son of an heritatary peer automatically succeeded to the title prior to the Disclaimer Act in 1963?

    Edit: Quentin Hogg caused a by-election in Marylebone in 1970 on being appointed Lord Chancellor by Heath though I'm not sure he ever took his seat.
    Quintin, I believe. Much crisper than Quentin.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Actually for all his OTT (but entertaining ) drama ,Leon is very insightful about things that matter

    Is this another Sean sock puppet?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    i think PB is over populated (per capital so to speak) with pretty juvenile keyboard warriors types and it tends to show with this sort of thing .
    Yes. The response is fundamentally adolescent
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,362
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:


    Leon said:

    geoffw said:

    Leon said:

    A 1 in 6 chance that human civilisation is about to be extinguished

    "Many people have asked me what I think the odds are of an imminent major US-Russia nuclear war. My current estimate is about the same as losing in Russian roulette: one in six. The goal of this post is to explain how I arrived at this estimate. Please forgive its cold and analytic nature despite the emotionally charged topic; I'm trying not to be biased by hopes, fears or wishful thinking. "

    https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8Rp4Svdpof/why-i-think-there-s-a-one-in-six-chance-of-an-imminent

    Roll of a die. Seems apt.

    It's not all bad


    "Many detailed estimates of nuclear war impact have been published in the academic literature. Xia et al (Nature Food, 3, 586–596, 2022) estimate that nuclear winter would kill about 99% of all Russians, Americans, Europeans and Chinese, with the most powerful post-war remaining economies being in South America, Southern Africa and Oceania."

    It's a good time to be Peruvian. and they've not had many decent breaks recently
    How many nuclear bombs do people think it would take to cause a nuclear winter? In the 50s and 60s they were exploding them all the time.
    I looked into this. There is scientific debate. Some boffins think the whole idea of nuclear winter is bollocks, but others think it would be even nastier than the central predictions, and could wipe out all advanced life on the planet, as the climate goes into Total Spaz Out Mode

    It seems safe to err on the side of caution and presume the effect of all out nuke war would be pretty fucking disastrous
    When Europe had a year without summer (1816) it was because an Icelandic volcano continuously produced ash and sulphur that blocked the sun. However much dust is thrown up by a nuclear war, it will all be produced in a short space of time, and will fairly rapidly fall out of the atmosphere. It's hard to see how the cooling would be sustained.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
    Mate, they have lost their minds. Genuinely

    I think a lot of it is just primitive fear. This is such a horrible prospect it invokes deep fear and loathing, and irrational aggression, and also large dollops of denial. Not going to happen! Don't think about it! Kill Putin!
    What's the difference between this and Germany invading Poland? Genuine question. A lot of British lives would have been saved if we had let Germany take over mainland Europe.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    How many nuclear bombs do people think it would take to cause a nuclear winter? In the 50s and 60s they were exploding them all the time.

    But on the whole they were nuking desert intermittently. If you start hundreds or even thousands of city sized fires you end up with a lot more crap in the atmosphere.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
    Mate, they have lost their minds. Genuinely

    I think a lot of it is just primitive fear. This is such a horrible prospect it invokes deep fear and loathing, and irrational aggression, and also large dollops of denial. Not going to happen! Don't think about it! Kill Putin!
    What's the difference between this and Germany invading Poland? Genuine question. A lot of British lives would have been saved if we had let Germany take over mainland Europe.
    germany did not have any nukes in 1939
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    You *are* a crazy person on drugs. You spend most of your life posting about the drugs you take!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    FF43 said:

    Think King Charles would be wise not to approve this move. The MPs concerned are at liberty to withdraw their acceptance of peerages on this round and trust Truss to renominate them for peerages at a later date.

    That triggers a thought.

    Who officially nominated them? Yes, they are chosen by the outgoing PM but does he actually *officially* nominate them? I’d always assumed the King awards peerages based on the recommendation of the *current* PM
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
    Mate, they have lost their minds. Genuinely

    I think a lot of it is just primitive fear. This is such a horrible prospect it invokes deep fear and loathing, and irrational aggression, and also large dollops of denial. Not going to happen! Don't think about it! Kill Putin!
    What's the difference between this and Germany invading Poland? Genuine question. A lot of British lives would have been saved if we had let Germany take over mainland Europe.
    germany did not have any nukes in 1939
    So that's the only difference? Total war is fine, but nukes are not?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
    Mate, they have lost their minds. Genuinely

    I think a lot of it is just primitive fear. This is such a horrible prospect it invokes deep fear and loathing, and irrational aggression, and also large dollops of denial. Not going to happen! Don't think about it! Kill Putin!
    What's the difference between this and Germany invading Poland? Genuine question. A lot of British lives would have been saved if we had let Germany take over mainland Europe.
    Hitler did not have nukes. Thank Fuck

    It has long been a terrifying counterfactual to consider: what if the Nazis had possessed nuclear weapons? They would surely have won, cf Man in the High Castle

    Putin is Hitler with nukes. Dealing with it is hard, if you want to avoid the apocalypse
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    On the plus side, I’m fairly confident neither Biden nor Putin are on drugs, unlike JFK during the Cuban missile crisis….

    (I’m not making this up! Although there is some dispute as to whether he was on hallucinogenic drugs, amphetamines, or just hardcore painkillers)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
    Mate, they have lost their minds. Genuinely

    I think a lot of it is just primitive fear. This is such a horrible prospect it invokes deep fear and loathing, and irrational aggression, and also large dollops of denial. Not going to happen! Don't think about it! Kill Putin!
    What's the difference between this and Germany invading Poland? Genuine question. A lot of British lives would have been saved if we had let Germany take over mainland Europe.
    Hitler did not have nukes. Thank Fuck

    It has long been a terrifying counterfactual to consider: what if the Nazis had possessed nuclear weapons? They would surely have won, cf Man in the High Castle

    Putin is Hitler with nukes. Dealing with it is hard, if you want to avoid the apocalypse
    So answer my other question - should we just let any country with nuclear weapons do whatever they want? Where is the red line?
  • Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Your logic suggests that we should let other nuclear powers do whatever they want in case they nuke us. Where does it end? Where is the red line?
    well that red line has to be a lot further away from being drawn than about essentially a slavic border dispute
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited October 2022
    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
    I’m not normally a chilled out bubble type of person but this nuclear situation bizarrely I’m just not giving too much thought to as Putin seems to like self -preservation and he’s not a religious fundamentalist in which case I would be more worried about it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective,
    where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    I’ve always been worried about nuclear war. Most of us have. Your idiotic pretence that you alone are sage enough to see the risk is as egotistical as it is patronising. You’re not actually contributing anything. This is just another of the monomanias you feed by trawling Twitter for confirmation of your biases. Having found Tweets supporting your viewpoint on Covid, nuclear war, Aliens, AI etc you then regurgitate them on here for us plebs to fawn at your superior intellect. Scott does the same thing but without the flowery and
    prolix verbiage.
  • Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Your logic suggests that we should let other nuclear powers do whatever they want in case they nuke us. Where does it end? Where is the red line?
    well that red line has to be a lot further away from being drawn than about essentially a slavic border dispute
    Ah yes, a quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
    It’s been there since the late 40s. What have you been doing all your life?
    So your new position is that there has always been a nuclear threat (since the 40s) and nothing of late has happened to suggest the threat is greater right now

    Interesting

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    i think PB is over populated (per capital so to speak) with pretty juvenile keyboard warriors types and it tends to show with this sort of thing .
    Yes. The response is fundamentally adolescent
    You may turn out to be right or the rest of us may do.

    Difference is, we will have the satisfaction of saying - 'told you so'.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Your logic suggests that we should let other nuclear powers do whatever they want in case they nuke us. Where does it end? Where is the red line?
    well that red line has to be a lot further away from being drawn than about essentially a slavic border dispute
    Laughable. A slavic border dispute? Give over. It's one sovereign country invading another. Would it make a difference if it was Poland?

    Is nuclear war over Poland ok, but not over Ukraine?

    I ask again - where is the red line? At what point does nuclear war become ok?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
    Mate, they have lost their minds. Genuinely

    I think a lot of it is just primitive fear. This is such a horrible prospect it invokes deep fear and loathing, and irrational aggression, and also large dollops of denial. Not going to happen! Don't think about it! Kill Putin!
    What's the difference between this and Germany invading Poland? Genuine question. A lot of British lives would have been saved if we had let Germany take over mainland Europe.
    germany did not have any nukes in 1939
    So that's the only difference? Total war is fine, but nukes are not?
    well err yes
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    viewcode said:

    Hi, sorry to bother you but this is one of my occasional postings. Some of you may recall the first in my Ukraine War series (see [1]). The sequel - yes, "Ukraine War II" - depicted the Russian invasion as if it was in the UK instead of Ukraine, depicting events in recognisable British locations transposed from their UKR equivalents. I can't speak for the quality of the writing but (except for one flourish referring to an incident in "Red Storm Rising") it was my best efforts at getting the areas and events right

    It was written up and sent to OGH and his sons in August and was accepted. Unfortunately the election of Truss and the death of the Monarch put it on the backburner and the recent Ukraine advances make it out of date.

    To prevent it being lost, I am making it available to you via this posting. If you want a copy of the Word document, and its accompanying concordance explaining the references, let me know and I'll PM you a copy.

    I will post this reminder once a day until Monday 10th, and I will host a Q&A on Tuesday 11th in the unlikely event anybody wants to discuss it.

    Notes

    [1] https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/

    archives/2022/05/02/why-ukraine-was-particularly-vulnerable/

    @viewcode can I get a copy? Ta!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    This is laughable. There is an easy way to end the Ukrainian conflict - Russia stops their invasion and goes home. Anything else is giving into bullies. There is not any shades of grey here, it's black and white.
    except it definitely does have alot of shades of grey (perhaps even more than 50) - Now is not the time to get binary and all simplistic about goodies and baddies and the baddies must fail
    Cowards and appeasers will always make excuses.
    i thought you were better than that frankly - but if you are calling me a coward then I suggest you go and fight this war personally rather than urging others to do it
    Mate, they have lost their minds. Genuinely

    I think a lot of it is just primitive fear. This is such a horrible prospect it invokes deep fear and loathing, and irrational aggression, and also large dollops of denial. Not going to happen! Don't think about it! Kill Putin!
    What's the difference between this and Germany invading Poland? Genuine question. A lot of British lives would have been saved if we had let Germany take over mainland Europe.
    germany did not have any nukes in 1939
    So that's the only difference? Total war is fine, but nukes are not?
    well err yes
    If you die under a sea of cruise missiles or you die under a mushroom cloud, the outcome is the same.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 883
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Say the West does it your way. Putin is allowed to keep what he has taken and Rump Ukraine is rendered officially neutral, do you think that's the end. He will try again, at least in Ukraine, and likely elsewhere. Where's your line when he's invaded Eastern Germany, they've pushed Putin back to the Donbass and he starts waving his nuclear willy again?

    Say we have a 1 in 6 chance of nuclear war now, and we give in. In 2 years we end up in a similar situation with a 1 in 6 chance of nuclear war. Say we give in again, and 2 years from then we have another 1 in 6 chance etc etc. How long until one of those 1 in 6s goes off?

    Alternatively, say we have a 1 in 6 chance of nuclear war and the west stands firm, we avoid rolling a 6 and Putin is diminished or dead. Our chances of nuclear war become 1 in 10000. We can quibble numbers but those are our options. Up front yours is safer, but in the long run it increases, rather than decreases the probability of nuclear war.
  • Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
    It’s been there since the late 40s. What have you been doing all your life?
    So your new position is that there has always been a nuclear threat (since the 40s) and nothing of late has happened to suggest the threat is greater right now

    Interesting

    In 1995 Boris Yeltsin was given the nuclear football to launch Russian nukes because Russian radar people thought a Trident nuclear missile had been deployed against Russia.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
    I’m not normally a chilled out bubble type of person but this nuclear situation bizarrely I’m just not giving too much thought to as Putin seems to like self -preservation and he’s not a religious fundamentalist in which case I would be more worried about it.
    Question I'm asking is: why has he not responded to the Kerch bombing with a nuke?

    A: Either because he's bluffing or he's not being allowed too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective,
    where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    I’ve always been worried about nuclear war. Most of us have. Your idiotic pretence that you alone are sage enough to see the risk is as egotistical as it is patronising. You’re not actually contributing anything. This is just another of the monomanias you feed by trawling Twitter for confirmation of your biases. Having found Tweets supporting your viewpoint on Covid, nuclear war, Aliens, AI etc you then regurgitate them on here for us plebs to fawn at your superior intellect. Scott does the same thing but without the flowery and
    prolix verbiage.
    That might be a valid point - I am obviously smarter than you - if you weren't literally minimising the threat "Oh nothing has changed since the 1940s"

    This is utter bollocks. We are in an emergency. You can't cope with this reality. Whatever
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,456
    There's a definite hard-finish to human civilisation on Earth: in about 200 million years when it gets too hot to live here anymore due to solar expansion.

    But, not yet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    edited October 2022

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
    I’m not normally a chilled out bubble type of person but this nuclear situation bizarrely I’m just not giving too much thought to as Putin seems to like self -preservation and he’s not a religious fundamentalist in which case I would be more worried about it.
    Question I'm asking is: why has he not responded to the Kerch bombing with a nuke?

    A: Either because he's bluffing or he's not being allowed too.
    Nuclear radiation fallout may end up in Russia if the climate is in a bad mood.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective,
    where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    I’ve always been worried about nuclear war. Most of us have. Your idiotic pretence that you alone are sage enough to see the risk is as egotistical as it is patronising. You’re not actually contributing anything. This is just another of the monomanias you feed by trawling Twitter for confirmation of your biases. Having found Tweets supporting your viewpoint on Covid, nuclear war, Aliens, AI etc you then regurgitate them on here for us plebs to fawn at your superior intellect. Scott does the same thing but without the flowery and
    prolix verbiage.
    That might be a valid point - I am obviously smarter than you - if you weren't literally minimising the threat "Oh nothing has changed since the 1940s"

    This is utter bollocks. We are in an emergency. You can't cope with this reality. Whatever
    Doesn't feel like an emergency. I just had a nice Costa.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,456
    If I get on an interstellar spacecraft to escape earth can everyone please make sure @Leon is on another one?

    I can't deal with his bedwetting for 200 lightyears.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
    I’m not normally a chilled out bubble type of person but this nuclear situation bizarrely I’m just not giving too much thought to as Putin seems to like self -preservation and he’s not a religious fundamentalist in which case I would be more worried about it.
    Question I'm asking is: why has he not responded to the Kerch bombing with a nuke?

    A: Either because he's bluffing or he's not being allowed too.
    B: Nuclear radiation fallout may end up in Russia if the climate is in a bad mood.
    Would it be cruel of me to start talking about how the fact Newent has a microclimate all of its own makes it an excellent place to be in the event of nuclear war?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,813
    edited October 2022

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Your logic suggests that we should let other nuclear powers do whatever they want in case they nuke us. Where does it end? Where is the red line?
    well that red line has to be a lot further away from being drawn than about essentially a slavic border dispute
    Laughable. A slavic border dispute? Give over. It's one sovereign country invading another. Would it make a difference if it was Poland?

    Is nuclear war over Poland ok, but not over Ukraine?

    I ask again - where is the red line? At what point does nuclear war become ok?
    I seriously hope you dont think nuclear war is ok over this - but countires have been invading other countries almost annually - We even supported and did it ourselves (Iraq, Afghanistan) - Russia did it in 2014 with Ukraine (nobody really gave a toss then and actually forgot about it until recently ) They also did with Georgia - again everyone forgot about that. For some reason we have got into a bizarre situation where we are risking ours and our faimilies lives and the whole culture and civilisation and history of the Uk for this latest incarnation of slavic border disputes
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
    I’m not normally a chilled out bubble type of person but this nuclear situation bizarrely I’m just not giving too much thought to as Putin seems to like self -preservation and he’s not a religious fundamentalist in which case I would be more worried about it.
    Question I'm asking is: why has he not responded to the Kerch bombing with a nuke?

    A: Either because he's bluffing or he's not being allowed too.
    Nuclear radiation fallout may end up in Russia if the climate is in a bad mood.
    I'm really not sure that's going to be high on his checklist if he were prepared to risk Armageddon.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    edited October 2022

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Your logic suggests that we should let other nuclear powers do whatever they want in case they nuke us. Where does it end? Where is the red line?
    well that red line has to be a lot further away from being drawn than about essentially a slavic border dispute
    Laughable. A slavic border dispute? Give over. It's one sovereign country invading another. Would it make a difference if it was Poland?

    Is nuclear war over Poland ok, but not over Ukraine?

    I ask again - where is the red line? At what point does nuclear war become ok?
    I seriously hope you dont think nuclear war is ok over this - but countires have been invading other countries almost annually - We even supported and did it ourselves (Iraq, Afghanistan) - Russia did it in 2014 with Ukraine (nobody really gave a toss then and actually forgot about it until recently ) They also did with Georgia - again everyone forgot about that. For some reason we have got into a bizarre situation where we are risking ours and our faimilies lives and the whole culture and civilisation and history of the Uk for this latest incarnation of slavic border disputes
    Yeah in Georgia the US threatened to rain tomahawks upon their army if they proceeded any further, so they didn't.

    You haven't answered my question anyway - at what point does nuclear war become ok?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    If you really believe that the apocalypse is almost upon us why the hell are you wasting your final days posting drivel on a political website?

    Thing is, you don't actually believe it for a second. You are a drama queen. If you really thought it was about to happen you would be legging it somewhere to hide out and look after number 1 as you did when Covid hit us.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    Is LT still republican? No idea. But the key words in what follows are:

    'may', ' up to', 'is understood', 'could', 'believed', 'would', 'it's unprecedented'.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,330
    Unpopular said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Say the West does it your way. Putin is allowed to keep what he has taken and Rump Ukraine is rendered officially neutral, do you think that's the end. He will try again, at least in Ukraine, and likely elsewhere. Where's your line when he's invaded Eastern Germany, they've pushed Putin back to the Donbass and he starts waving his nuclear willy again?

    Say we have a 1 in 6 chance of nuclear war now, and we give in. In 2 years we end up in a similar situation with a 1 in 6 chance of nuclear war. Say we give in again, and 2 years from then we have another 1 in 6 chance etc etc. How long until one of those 1 in 6s goes off?

    Alternatively, say we have a 1 in 6 chance of nuclear war and the west stands firm, we avoid rolling a 6 and Putin is diminished or dead. Our chances of nuclear war become 1 in 10000. We can quibble numbers but those are our options. Up front yours is safer, but in the long run it increases, rather than decreases the probability of nuclear war.
    That is not what I am advocating, and it is boring to continuously reiterate this

    I am seeking a sweet diplomatic spot where Putin is forever chastened and diminished, but he survives with some tiny trophy

    It would be difficult. But nuclear war will be worse
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    So the PB consensus on nuclear war has gone from No it's not going to happen, to Fuck it, if it's going to happen let's have it NOW and ASAP rather than in a few years time, yay bombs!

    I'm not sure everyone would agree with this

    You are giving them a choice between certain death in the next six weeks, or probable death in three to five years

    99% of people would choose the latter, thanks very much. I quite like being alive and seeing my friends. And if I get to do that for another three years that would be cool

    You’re going to give yourself an ulcer at this rate . There’s zip all we can do about it so my advice is just go into a bubble of denial and just enjoy yourself .
    That at least does have some merit, as an approach

    Trouble is I can't. I keep looking at the door. And there's a fucking great big wolf there. Howling
    It’s been there since the late 40s. What have you been doing all your life?
    So your new position is that there has always been a nuclear threat (since the 40s) and nothing of late has happened to suggest the threat is greater right now

    Interesting

    No. “Why aren’t you losing your mind over the possibility of nuclear war?!” you ask. Because my entire childhood was the Cold War, Protect & Survive ads on TV and Threads, which I watched 35 years ago when I was 13 on a mate’s VHS. I lived a few miles from Greenham Common until I was 10. It doesn’t mean I’m not concerned. I just learned freaking out does nothing. And reading your uninformed, prolix and rather dim commentary makes an otherwise interesting board rather boring.

  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291

    JohnO said:

    JohnO said:

    This has got me thinking (OK, it's a Sunday). When was the last by-election caused by an MP - let alone 9 - being elevated to the Lords? Could it be as far back as the 1950s when a son of an heritatary peer automatically succeeded to the title prior to the Disclaimer Act in 1963?

    Edit: Quentin Hogg caused a by-election in Marylebone in 1970 on being appointed Lord Chancellor by Heath though I'm not sure he ever took his seat.
    Quintin, I believe. Much crisper than Quentin.

    You’re right.
  • Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    thebatter said:

    MaxPB said:

    Suella Braverman is a moron. We should be looking to legalise, regulate and tax recreational drugs and ensure consumers are buying from legitimate untainted sources. Reclassification to class A will be a disaster for millions of ordinary people.

    Bring back Priti Patel please.

    I dont see how reclassification to class A will be a disaster for people. Not being able to smoke cannabis quite as easily is inconvenient not a disaster
    Cocaine is literally everywhere in major cities and out of touch old tories are getting their knickers in a twist over weed, which is more than everywhere.

    Massively out of touch.
    Who is massively out of touch? Major cities rarely vote Tory.

    Outside of them,there is plenty of political consternation about County Lines.
    Yeah and if you legalise and regulate you remove that problem immediately.
    I don't have a dog in this fight; I don't take drugs.
    Unlike one poster on here this afternoon who has clearly taken a great many of them all at once...
    So I am a crazy person on drugs: because I express concern that a highly esteemed professor from MIT estimates that there is a 1 in 6 chance of human society being wiped out in the coming weeks? And, moreover, that one of the smartest guys on the planet (and the richest) agrees with this estimate?

    How did PB arrive at this insane perspective, where being justifiably worried about nuclear disaster is some kind of cowardly hallucination?
    Your logic suggests that we should let other nuclear powers do whatever they want in case they nuke us. Where does it end? Where is the red line?
    well that red line has to be a lot further away from being drawn than about essentially a slavic border dispute
    Laughable. A slavic border dispute? Give over. It's one sovereign country invading another. Would it make a difference if it was Poland?

    Is nuclear war over Poland ok, but not over Ukraine?

    I ask again - where is the red line? At what point does nuclear war become ok?
    I seriously hope you dont think nuclear war is ok over this - but countires have been invading other countries almost annually - We even supported and did it ourselves (Iraq, Afghanistan) - Russia did it in 2014 with Ukraine (nobody really gave a toss then and actually forgot about it until recently ) They also did with Georgia - again everyone forgot about that. For some reason we have got into a bizarre situation where we are risking ours and our faimilies lives and the whole culture and civilisation and history of the Uk for this latest incarnation of slavic border disputes
    Yeah in Georgia the US threatened to rain tomahawks upon their army if they proceeded any further, so they didn't.

    You haven't answered my question anyway - at what point does nuclear war become ok?
    well i dont think it ever becomes ok - IF you scorn at that answer i suggest taking a walk this afternoon and looking at the humanity of life - old ,young, etc and asking if you really think its ever ok
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,964
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Absurd article by TSE. Every PM announces a list of peers after they resign and it is up to the Monarch to appoint them not the next PM. Far from damaging the monarchy all Truss annoying Boris would do is shift him and his supporters to the Sunsk camp which via Shapps and Gove is already plotting to remove the PM. If Dorries has her peerage rejected, despite being a Truss supporter from the outset, that would shift her too to the rebels camp.

    On the matter of proroguation of Parliament, personally I don't think King Charles would have agreed to it unlike his mother. While he knows he is a constitutional monarch he also knows he can use his role to uphold the constitution and as the Supreme Court confirmed he would have been right on that

    But if he upholds the constitution by disobeying his PM he has screwed up because he has overthrown the constitution by disobeying his PM.
    No he hasn't you ignoramus. Our constitution is based on Crown in Parliament not PM in Parliament.

    The PM is merely the King's chief minister, nothing more
    Insults, insults. But you are going on primitive and ancient theory. It's actual political *reality* I am thinking of.

    Actual political reality is our constitution is still based on Crown in Parliament. The King appoints the PM and their government, the King can dismiss them to if they no longer retain the confidence of Parliament or try and ignore Parliament
    But you've basically just admitted that QE2 was wrong to obey her PM when he prorogated parliament. So why do we have this expensive monarchy business if it goes wrong at critical times anyway?
    It doesn't go wrong, it avoids an equally expensive and divisive party political head of state without the tourist revenue. It is also up to each monarch how they interpret the constitution and their powers in terms of enforcing it over the actions of the PM in terms of the PM's relationship with Parliament
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