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Grant Shapps as our next Prime Minister? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 20 in General
Grant Shapps as our next Prime Minister? – politicalbetting.com

Grant Shapps, the former transport secretary, is recording the views of Tory MPs about Liz Truss and her plans. The data is not encouraging for the PM https://t.co/d2sTXKMFpY

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,366
    Gavin Williamson might have more chance of succeeding Liz Truss as Conservative Party leader. If she does take the party into a shellacking, there won't be many other options left. Williamson had a near-30,000 majority in 2019.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,366
    Grant Shapps is crunching the numbers. That is what he does. He is said to have played a similar role in counting supporters for Boris's leadership run.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Toms said:

    I have now had five Covidic jabs of various types. None of them had much apparent effect. Two days ago I had an mrna jab and a flu jab in different arms. No particular effect there either. In fact I've had good solid workouts on the turbo trainer, as for the last 11,000 miles since lock down. Am I a peddling zombie?

    More importantly---is Charles still about? I'm only only an occasional PB watcher, but I haven't seen him for a while. I found him human and knowledgeable about things of which I know naught. And from social regions outside my ken.

    Charles decided to stop posting because he didn't like the comments from another poster who claimed to know his family.
    That's nasty. Getting towards stalking?

    I'm surprised OGH and Smithson The Younger tolerated that!
    Absolute fucking nonsense. There was no doxxing element to it, but anyway he posted links to the obituary of some frankly uninteresting old posh buffer who he said was his dad, prompting multiple posts of Oh Charles how awful, I am not upper class enough myself to have had a father but even so I can vaguely see how it must feel to lose one. As the old buffer was called let's say Wayne Potts, it doesn’t take the offspring of sherlock Holmes and Bertrand Russell to deduce Charles's surname.
    Calm down, clam down, clam down. I was just going by what @LostPassword posted. If you are comfortable with what you posted about Charles then fair enough. I wasn't around at the time so it's not for me to judge! 😇
    I'm clam as fcku.
    Maybe! But then you chose to reply to me almost within minutes... Which suggests you were maybe not so calm? 🤷‍♂️

    Like I said, it's not for me to judge. You chose to threaten to "expose" Charles and his family on an internet forum (which ultimately lead him to leave the site) If you are comfortable with this behaviour then fair enough but your almost instant reply to my post suggesting you might not have acted with the best of intentions suggests to me you are probably very uncomfortable with the way you behaved but don't want to admit it...

    In the end I won't judge as it's not my place. But maybe you are judging yourself at this point???
    God what a prick you are. You say in consecutive posts that you don't know what I did, and that I did this that and the other (I didn't). Thank God you are not judging me though, I couldn't have stood that.

    The poster in question was an exceptionally stupid and unsophisticated person's idea of what a posh person is like. I am sure you would have been taken in by him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,366
    It is hard to see Shapps as even a caretaker prime minister. In the unlikely event the men in grey suits did look for that option, former PM Theresa May is surely a more likely candidate to hold the fort for a couple of months.

    Because it will most likely be the economy that tips the Cabinet's hand, former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who predicted the meltdown that followed the not-budget, is Hobson's Choice.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,366
    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Toms said:

    I have now had five Covidic jabs of various types. None of them had much apparent effect. Two days ago I had an mrna jab and a flu jab in different arms. No particular effect there either. In fact I've had good solid workouts on the turbo trainer, as for the last 11,000 miles since lock down. Am I a peddling zombie?

    More importantly---is Charles still about? I'm only only an occasional PB watcher, but I haven't seen him for a while. I found him human and knowledgeable about things of which I know naught. And from social regions outside my ken.

    Charles decided to stop posting because he didn't like the comments from another poster who claimed to know his family.
    That's nasty. Getting towards stalking?

    I'm surprised OGH and Smithson The Younger tolerated that!
    Absolute fucking nonsense. There was no doxxing element to it, but anyway he posted links to the obituary of some frankly uninteresting old posh buffer who he said was his dad, prompting multiple posts of Oh Charles how awful, I am not upper class enough myself to have had a father but even so I can vaguely see how it must feel to lose one. As the old buffer was called let's say Wayne Potts, it doesn’t take the offspring of sherlock Holmes and Bertrand Russell to deduce Charles's surname.
    Calm down, clam down, clam down. I was just going by what @LostPassword posted. If you are comfortable with what you posted about Charles then fair enough. I wasn't around at the time so it's not for me to judge! 😇
    I'm clam as fcku.
    Maybe! But then you chose to reply to me almost within minutes... Which suggests you were maybe not so calm? 🤷‍♂️

    Like I said, it's not for me to judge. You chose to threaten to "expose" Charles and his family on an internet forum (which ultimately lead him to leave the site) If you are comfortable with this behaviour then fair enough but your almost instant reply to my post suggesting you might not have acted with the best of intentions suggests to me you are probably very uncomfortable with the way you behaved but don't want to admit it...

    In the end I won't judge as it's not my place. But maybe you are judging yourself at this point???
    God what a prick you are. You say in consecutive posts that you don't know what I did, and that I did this that and the other (I didn't). Thank God you are not judging me though, I couldn't have stood that.

    The poster in question was an exceptionally stupid and unsophisticated person's idea of what a posh person is like. I am sure you would have been taken in by him.
    Do we really need to infect yet another thread with this poison? Let it die.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Toms said:

    I have now had five Covidic jabs of various types. None of them had much apparent effect. Two days ago I had an mrna jab and a flu jab in different arms. No particular effect there either. In fact I've had good solid workouts on the turbo trainer, as for the last 11,000 miles since lock down. Am I a peddling zombie?

    More importantly---is Charles still about? I'm only only an occasional PB watcher, but I haven't seen him for a while. I found him human and knowledgeable about things of which I know naught. And from social regions outside my ken.

    Charles decided to stop posting because he didn't like the comments from another poster who claimed to know his family.
    That's nasty. Getting towards stalking?

    I'm surprised OGH and Smithson The Younger tolerated that!
    Absolute fucking nonsense. There was no doxxing element to it, but anyway he posted links to the obituary of some frankly uninteresting old posh buffer who he said was his dad, prompting multiple posts of Oh Charles how awful, I am not upper class enough myself to have had a father but even so I can vaguely see how it must feel to lose one. As the old buffer was called let's say Wayne Potts, it doesn’t take the offspring of sherlock Holmes and Bertrand Russell to deduce Charles's surname.
    Calm down, clam down, clam down. I was just going by what @LostPassword posted. If you are comfortable with what you posted about Charles then fair enough. I wasn't around at the time so it's not for me to judge! 😇
    I'm clam as fcku.
    Maybe! But then you chose to reply to me almost within minutes... Which suggests you were maybe not so calm? 🤷‍♂️

    Like I said, it's not for me to judge. You chose to threaten to "expose" Charles and his family on an internet forum (which ultimately lead him to leave the site) If you are comfortable with this behaviour then fair enough but your almost instant reply to my post suggesting you might not have acted with the best of intentions suggests to me you are probably very uncomfortable with the way you behaved but don't want to admit it...

    In the end I won't judge as it's not my place. But maybe you are judging yourself at this point???
    God what a prick you are. You say in consecutive posts that you don't know what I did, and that I did this that and the other (I didn't). Thank God you are not judging me though, I couldn't have stood that.

    The poster in question was an exceptionally stupid and unsophisticated person's idea of what a posh person is like. I am sure you would have been taken in by him.
    Do we really need to infect yet another thread with this poison? Let it die.
    Sure. But the guy is an arsehole.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,045
    "Liz Truss is facing a rural revolt against her plans to prioritise a “dash for economic growth” over nature protection and the environment.

    Senior party figures, including ministers under Boris Johnson’s premiership and former Tory leader William Hague, have joined the National Trust, the RSPB, the Angling Trust and Wildlife Trusts in criticising what they see as environmental vandalism.

    It follows concerns Truss is treating the leading nature charities as part of a so-called “anti-growth coalition” that she claims to be confronting."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/08/liz-truss-facing-rural-rebellion-over-anti-nature-growth-push
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    It’s raining in Japan.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Unpleasantly surprised and impressed that the Kerch Bridge has reopened so quickly - especially the rail bridge. The remaining question is therefore what limits have been put on it, e.g. weight, and how much capacity of the road and rail bridges have been reduced.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,584
    Sandpit said:

    It’s raining in Japan.

    I'm so excited.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    Mr Dancer’s bet on Sainz not looking too good!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Unpleasantly surprised and impressed that the Kerch Bridge has reopened so quickly - especially the rail bridge. The remaining question is therefore what limits have been put on it, e.g. weight, and how much capacity of the road and rail bridges have been reduced.

    The symbolism is more important than the engineering.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,474

    Unpleasantly surprised and impressed that the Kerch Bridge has reopened so quickly - especially the rail bridge. The remaining question is therefore what limits have been put on it, e.g. weight, and how much capacity of the road and rail bridges have been reduced.

    The normalno Russian disregard for any sort of H&S actually helps them here - no Anti Growth Coalition there! They probably just cut out the warped rail sections then welded new stuff in. If the bridge stays up, khorosho, if it bends, blyat.

    The dropped spans of the road bridge don't look beyond the capability of any army with bridging capability. (Obviously, Russians are shit at everything, etc.)
  • pingping Posts: 3,201
    edited October 9
    I think we’re headed for a deep and prolonged recession and a period of asset price deflation throughout all developed economies.

    I’ve sold almost all of my (not very impressive) equity portfolio.

    The era of cheap money has, rather abruptly, come to an end. Most people - and most of our politicians - are like the cartoon character who has run off a cliff, suspended in mid air before the inevitable fall. The value of all the inflated assets are gonna tumble. Negative equity is going to be common. Used car values etc will tumble. Any asset which derives its value from discounted future cashflow will become worth a fraction of its current value.

    This is going to hurt.

    And the government - of whatever colour - is not going to have the fiscal wiggle room to help.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912

    Sandpit said:

    It’s raining in Japan.

    Thanks, I put the goats back in the pen
    More specifically, it’s raining at Suzuka, where the Japanese Grand Prix has been suspended after two laps.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,484
    Despite lurking here for over a decade, I'm only just now taking interest in the betting angle.
    Is there a good guide somewhere for newbies?

    For example, I often see recommendations here to lay over hyped outcomes, but doesn't that expose you to a scary amount of liability?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Dura_Ace said:

    Unpleasantly surprised and impressed that the Kerch Bridge has reopened so quickly - especially the rail bridge. The remaining question is therefore what limits have been put on it, e.g. weight, and how much capacity of the road and rail bridges have been reduced.

    The normalno Russian disregard for any sort of H&S actually helps them here - no Anti Growth Coalition there! They probably just cut out the warped rail sections then welded new stuff in. If the bridge stays up, khorosho, if it bends, blyat.

    The dropped spans of the road bridge don't look beyond the capability of any army with bridging capability. (Obviously, Russians are shit at everything, etc.)
    The fire will have effected parts of the rail bridge, and would require more than just having the rails cut out. In 'normal' times here in the UK, it would be out for quite a while (heck, probably quite a while for decontaminating all the spilt oil on the structure alone...)

    Agree about the dropped spans (I believe I said this yesterday), but again I question the loading such a temporary bodge job could take. In some ways, building a bailey bridge over a river in a 'clean' position is easier than working with an existing structure.

    The fact the bridge is steel helps them: steel often deforms elastically and then plastically before it fails, and these deformations can be measured in real time, providing warnings (excluding long-term creep). Reinforced concrete has very little elastic or plastic deformation before failure. In addition, there are good techniques to test steel structures in situ, and you can also 'mend' steel by just welding new pieces on. Reinforce concrete is much harder to 'mend'.

    (hope the above is correct; I did this stuff 30 years ago so might have some details wrong...)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    Freggles said:

    Despite lurking here for over a decade, I'm only just now taking interest in the betting angle.
    Is there a good guide somewhere for newbies?

    For example, I often see recommendations here to lay over hyped outcomes, but doesn't that expose you to a scary amount of liability?

    There is a seminal work on the subject:

    https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/165554785804

    Betfair exchange and Smarkets both allow laying of bets, and yes sometimes that involves tying up money for small returns.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Liz Truss is facing a rural revolt against her plans to prioritise a “dash for economic growth” over nature protection and the environment.

    Senior party figures, including ministers under Boris Johnson’s premiership and former Tory leader William Hague, have joined the National Trust, the RSPB, the Angling Trust and Wildlife Trusts in criticising what they see as environmental vandalism.

    It follows concerns Truss is treating the leading nature charities as part of a so-called “anti-growth coalition” that she claims to be confronting."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/08/liz-truss-facing-rural-rebellion-over-anti-nature-growth-push

    Liz Truss is completely right about an anti-growth coalition.

    The problem is it includes a large number of her backbenchers.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    How many people got up before 6am to watch the Japanese rain?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,232
    Freggles said:

    Despite lurking here for over a decade, I'm only just now taking interest in the betting angle.
    Is there a good guide somewhere for newbies?

    For example, I often see recommendations here to lay over hyped outcomes, but doesn't that expose you to a scary amount of liability?

    Yes, so you have to manage your exposures carefully. Take it steady and let your tummy be your guide. If you feel some butterflies, that's fine because you are taking it seriously, but if you start to feel sick you are in too deep!

    The best guide I ever read is an ancient book by Alan Potts. It is about horseracing and the examples are taken from twenty or more years ago but the principles are still valid and can be applied to any sport in which you have some expertise or are prepared to put in the research. It's called Against The Crowd and the title tells you the main theme:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Against-Crowd-Methods-Modern-Backer/dp/1871093929

    It served me well through a career of about fifteen years of semi-professional punting.

    Good luck!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 10,474
    Off on a Car Collection Caper to the Balkans. My subsequent absence should not be interpreted as death by motorcycle accident or mobiliZation. It's 100x more complicated than it should be due to Brexit so fuck every who voted for it deep in the rectum.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,556
    Freggles said:

    Despite lurking here for over a decade, I'm only just now taking interest in the betting angle.
    Is there a good guide somewhere for newbies?

    For example, I often see recommendations here to lay over hyped outcomes, but doesn't that expose you to a scary amount of liability?

    People invest in stocks, where there is also a small risk of total loss of investment (company failure).

    Here TSE is engaging in hyperbole - laying is a 1% return at some indeterminate point in the future with a very low risk of losing. With inflation you end up losing money either way and, at present, you could lose that money less quickly in real terms in a savings account.

    There are attractive lays however. I posted one a year or so back on government covid regulations that had an 11% return in two days, unless the government completely reversed its ferrets on an already announced policy (which is, of course, always a bit of a risk :wink:)

    On binary outcomes, the markets allow you to bet on both sides, normally odds align pretty much, but on low liquidity markets laying 'no' can give better odds than backing 'yes' or vice versa
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    edited October 9
    Andy_JS said:

    "Liz Truss is facing a rural revolt against her plans to prioritise a “dash for economic growth” over nature protection and the environment.

    Senior party figures, including ministers under Boris Johnson’s premiership and former Tory leader William Hague, have joined the National Trust, the RSPB, the Angling Trust and Wildlife Trusts in criticising what they see as environmental vandalism.

    It follows concerns Truss is treating the leading nature charities as part of a so-called “anti-growth coalition” that she claims to be confronting."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/08/liz-truss-facing-rural-rebellion-over-anti-nature-growth-push

    Worth noting that the NT, English Heritage, RSPB and Wildlife Trusts all have memberships that far exceed the numbers in political parties. Many are not particularly active and treat membership as a sort of voluntary tax to defend the fabric of the country, including myself.

    The polls show that people want growth, but not at any price.


  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963
    Sandpit said:

    How many people got up before 6am to watch the Japanese rain?

    Turning out to be a total waste of time, isn't it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,467
    Selebian said:


    Here TSE is engaging in hyperbole - laying is a 1% return at some indeterminate point in the future with a very low risk of losing. With inflation you end up losing money either way and, at present, you could lose that money less quickly in real terms in a savings account.

    I'm not recommending a particular system or market here but in theory the crypto markets can help with this because you can bet in any token, and a token can represent any asset. So you could denonimate the bet in something that isn't designed to lose value over time. You then obviously have the risk of that asset losing value as well as the risk of losing the bet, but you should also have a balancing upside where you win the bet and the value of the asset went up.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Liz Truss is facing a rural revolt against her plans to prioritise a “dash for economic growth” over nature protection and the environment.

    Senior party figures, including ministers under Boris Johnson’s premiership and former Tory leader William Hague, have joined the National Trust, the RSPB, the Angling Trust and Wildlife Trusts in criticising what they see as environmental vandalism.

    It follows concerns Truss is treating the leading nature charities as part of a so-called “anti-growth coalition” that she claims to be confronting."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/08/liz-truss-facing-rural-rebellion-over-anti-nature-growth-push

    Worth noting that the NT, English Heritage, RSPB and Wildlife Trusts all have memberships that far exceed the numbers in political parties. Many are not particularly active and treat membership as a sort of voluntary tax to defend the fabric of the country, including myself.

    The polls show that people want growth, but not at any price.


    Trouble is we all know Truss will do it shitly and without any discretion.

    Like with her tax policies she'll simply sweep away all environmental protections and expect growth to magically follow, whereas in fact we'll get lots of cheapass horrible shit built in some lovely places that damages the countryside, the rivers, the air and the locality that does very little for growth whilst creating massive profits for the developer.

    She is a dangerous ideologue.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    edited October 9
    ping said:

    I think we’re headed for a deep and prolonged recession and a period of asset price deflation throughout all developed economies.

    I’ve sold almost all of my (not very impressive) equity portfolio.

    The era of cheap money has, rather abruptly, come to an end. Most people - and most of our politicians - are like the cartoon character who has run off a cliff, suspended in mid air before the inevitable fall. The value of all the inflated assets are gonna tumble. Negative equity is going to be common. Used car values etc will tumble. Any asset which derives its value from discounted future cashflow will become worth a fraction of its current value.

    This is going to hurt.

    And the government - of whatever colour - is not going to have the fiscal wiggle room to help.

    I agree that inflation is back, and likely to stay high along with interest rates. Worth noting that real terms interest rates are still strongly negative, so if your income will rise with inflation, borrowing money can still be good value.

    Investing in such times does present challenges. The Seventies energy crisis and Barber boom are perhaps the closest to our current situation and we're followed by a bear market in equities and erosion of house prices. The not entirely dissimilar energy and inflationary crisis of 79-81 however set off one of the longest bull runs in equities, particularly in America, and a massive rise in house prices here.

    I am remaining invested in equities but have reconfigured my portfolio into areas likely to do well in a high inflation and interest rate situation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Liz Truss is facing a rural revolt against her plans to prioritise a “dash for economic growth” over nature protection and the environment.

    Senior party figures, including ministers under Boris Johnson’s premiership and former Tory leader William Hague, have joined the National Trust, the RSPB, the Angling Trust and Wildlife Trusts in criticising what they see as environmental vandalism.

    It follows concerns Truss is treating the leading nature charities as part of a so-called “anti-growth coalition” that she claims to be confronting."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/08/liz-truss-facing-rural-rebellion-over-anti-nature-growth-push

    Worth noting that the NT, English Heritage, RSPB and Wildlife Trusts all have memberships that far exceed the numbers in political parties. Many are not particularly active and treat membership as a sort of voluntary tax to defend the fabric of the country, including myself.

    The polls show that people want growth, but not at any price.


    Trouble is we all know Truss will do it shitly and without any discretion.

    Like with her tax policies she'll simply sweep away all environmental protections and expect growth to magically follow, whereas in fact we'll get lots of cheapass horrible shit built in some lovely places that damages the countryside, the rivers, the air and the locality that does very little for growth whilst creating massive profits for the developer.

    She is a dangerous ideologue.
    I agree, her government will be brief, but the vandalism to our precious island is likely to be longlasting.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,461
    edited October 9
    Just seen that Florida “study.”

    (In scare quotes because, when it’s looked at, wow)

    1 - Not only is it not peer reviewed, it doesn’t even have authors attached
    2 - Very strange methodology - ignores several ICD-10 codes, bypassing ischaemic heart disease, pulmonary heart disease, hypertensive diseases and the like for the category “other cardiac disease” and doesn't break that down (smells strongly of p-hacking)
    3 - Based on a total of 20 events (odour of p-hacking intensifies)
    4 - Ignores potential confounders (eg were any of this small number under treatment for something else? Smell of p-hacking becomes a full-on stink). To be fair to the anonymous authors, they do specify (in the small print) that “this study cannot determine the causative nature of someone’s death,” but Florida seem to be saying the opposite.
    5 - Prior covid was not measured, despite covid being known to increase cardiac evens post infection/recovery.
    6 - Covid-related deaths are not compared (other than a throwaway comment that covid-related mortality caused a significant increase in mortality in all groups - again, not the impression given by Lapado)
    7 - This increase is only seen in Florida, not any other state or country.
    8 - Florida happens to have a Surgeon General who has been anti-covid-vax since appointed in 2021. Pure coincidence, doubtless.
    9 - A properly constructed study in JAMA (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2784015) with 11.8 million vaccine doses, 6.2 million participants, and carefully separated possible outcomes, predefined to exclude p-hacking, and with confounders addressed, looking at medical records rather than death certificates so as to explore causative events, found no such thing.

    (See here: https://youcanknowthings.com/2022/10/09/a-critical-review-of-floridas-new-vaccine-analysis/ )
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,278
    Sandpit said:

    Unpleasantly surprised and impressed that the Kerch Bridge has reopened so quickly - especially the rail bridge. The remaining question is therefore what limits have been put on it, e.g. weight, and how much capacity of the road and rail bridges have been reduced.

    The symbolism is more important than the engineering.
    With the distinct possibility that there could be a secondary collapse if they aren't very careful. All that heat cannot have done that railway any good.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unpleasantly surprised and impressed that the Kerch Bridge has reopened so quickly - especially the rail bridge. The remaining question is therefore what limits have been put on it, e.g. weight, and how much capacity of the road and rail bridges have been reduced.

    The symbolism is more important than the engineering.
    With the distinct possibility that there could be a secondary collapse if they aren't very careful. All that heat cannot have done that railway any good.
    Yep. They’ll have replaced the tracks and the concrete sleepers, but they’re clearly done no proper investigation as to the strength (or otherwise) of the concrete bridge itself. One heavy train could cause the bridge to, if not collapse, deform sufficiently to derail.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646
    ping said:

    I think we’re headed for a deep and prolonged recession and a period of asset price deflation throughout all developed economies.

    I’ve sold almost all of my (not very impressive) equity portfolio.

    The era of cheap money has, rather abruptly, come to an end. Most people - and most of our politicians - are like the cartoon character who has run off a cliff, suspended in mid air before the inevitable fall. The value of all the inflated assets are gonna tumble. Negative equity is going to be common. Used car values etc will tumble. Any asset which derives its value from discounted future cashflow will become worth a fraction of its current value.

    This is going to hurt.

    And the government - of whatever colour - is not going to have the fiscal wiggle room to help.

    ping or anyone. Assuming ping is correct, what would happen to interest rates? The Bank of England sets interest rates to control inflation. So if we get deflation would interest rates then fall dramatically?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,048
    Sandpit said:

    mwadams said:

    Sandpit said:

    Unpleasantly surprised and impressed that the Kerch Bridge has reopened so quickly - especially the rail bridge. The remaining question is therefore what limits have been put on it, e.g. weight, and how much capacity of the road and rail bridges have been reduced.

    The symbolism is more important than the engineering.
    With the distinct possibility that there could be a secondary collapse if they aren't very careful. All that heat cannot have done that railway any good.
    Yep. They’ll have replaced the tracks and the concrete sleepers, but they’re clearly done no proper investigation as to the strength (or otherwise) of the concrete bridge itself. One heavy train could cause the bridge to, if not collapse, deform sufficiently to derail.
    It'll be interesting to know what form the rail bridge's trackbed takes. I very much doubt they use ballast on a long bridge - ballast is a dead weight that increases bridge cost. In ye olden days they would often use a wooden baulk road - longitudinal timbers that the rails sit on (and which also reduces some of the transmitted vibrations to the bridge). Nowadays the rails might just attach straight to the members, or use lightweight steel sleepers on a concrete bed. Or even be concrreted into a thin raft.

    All of these will effect the time it takes to rebuild the track in different ways.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    Gavin Williamson might have more chance of succeeding Liz Truss as Conservative Party leader. If she does take the party into a shellacking, there won't be many other options left. Williamson had a near-30,000 majority in 2019.

    Anything short of Canada 93 and Sunak, Truss, Patel and Braverman are all likely to survive. There may well be other notable figures, but I'm not about to start drawing up a full list of ultra secure Tories.

    Regardless, if the defeat is very heavy then the identity of the rump party leader won't matter to any of us for at least two Parliaments.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,646
    stjohn said:

    ping said:

    I think we’re headed for a deep and prolonged recession and a period of asset price deflation throughout all developed economies.

    I’ve sold almost all of my (not very impressive) equity portfolio.

    The era of cheap money has, rather abruptly, come to an end. Most people - and most of our politicians - are like the cartoon character who has run off a cliff, suspended in mid air before the inevitable fall. The value of all the inflated assets are gonna tumble. Negative equity is going to be common. Used car values etc will tumble. Any asset which derives its value from discounted future cashflow will become worth a fraction of its current value.

    This is going to hurt.

    And the government - of whatever colour - is not going to have the fiscal wiggle room to help.

    ping or anyone. Assuming ping is correct, what would happen to interest rates? The Bank of England sets interest rates to control inflation. So if we get deflation would interest rates then fall dramatically?
    Or am I missing an important point. I guess you can have asset price deflation along with inflation in other stuff, food, fuel etc?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Liz Truss is facing a rural revolt against her plans to prioritise a “dash for economic growth” over nature protection and the environment.

    Senior party figures, including ministers under Boris Johnson’s premiership and former Tory leader William Hague, have joined the National Trust, the RSPB, the Angling Trust and Wildlife Trusts in criticising what they see as environmental vandalism.

    It follows concerns Truss is treating the leading nature charities as part of a so-called “anti-growth coalition” that she claims to be confronting."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/08/liz-truss-facing-rural-rebellion-over-anti-nature-growth-push

    Worth noting that the NT, English Heritage, RSPB and Wildlife Trusts all have memberships that far exceed the numbers in political parties. Many are not particularly active and treat membership as a sort of voluntary tax to defend the fabric of the country, including myself.

    The polls show that people want growth, but not at any price.


    Trouble is we all know Truss will do it shitly and without any discretion.

    Like with her tax policies she'll simply sweep away all environmental protections and expect growth to magically follow, whereas in fact we'll get lots of cheapass horrible shit built in some lovely places that damages the countryside, the rivers, the air and the locality that does very little for growth whilst creating massive profits for the developer.

    She is a dangerous ideologue.
    I agree, her government will be brief, but the vandalism to our precious island is likely to be longlasting.
    If we are lucky then serial revolts will prevent things from deteriorating further, but the current lot aren't going to do anything about sewage pollution and other serious existing issues. Hardly helpful if we're lumbered with their rancid presence right the way through to January 2025.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    stjohn said:

    ping said:

    I think we’re headed for a deep and prolonged recession and a period of asset price deflation throughout all developed economies.

    I’ve sold almost all of my (not very impressive) equity portfolio.

    The era of cheap money has, rather abruptly, come to an end. Most people - and most of our politicians - are like the cartoon character who has run off a cliff, suspended in mid air before the inevitable fall. The value of all the inflated assets are gonna tumble. Negative equity is going to be common. Used car values etc will tumble. Any asset which derives its value from discounted future cashflow will become worth a fraction of its current value.

    This is going to hurt.

    And the government - of whatever colour - is not going to have the fiscal wiggle room to help.

    ping or anyone. Assuming ping is correct, what would happen to interest rates? The Bank of England sets interest rates to control inflation. So if we get deflation would interest rates then fall dramatically?
    It would surely depend on what assets get deflated. To affect BoE interest rate policy they would have to be in CPI or RPI, so not equities for example. I think too that deflation will be real terms rather than absolute, so house prices stagnant while CPI runs at 10% etc.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226

    It'll be interesting to know what form the rail bridge's trackbed takes. I very much doubt they use ballast on a long bridge - ballast is a dead weight that increases bridge cost. In ye olden days they would often use a wooden baulk road - longitudinal timbers that the rails sit on (and which also reduces some of the transmitted vibrations to the bridge). Nowadays the rails might just attach straight to the members, or use lightweight steel sleepers on a concrete bed. Or even be concrreted into a thin raft.

    All of these will effect the time it takes to rebuild the track in different ways.

    Whatever construction method is used, it has to allow the rails to deflect slightly to maintain traction
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    pigeon said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Liz Truss is facing a rural revolt against her plans to prioritise a “dash for economic growth” over nature protection and the environment.

    Senior party figures, including ministers under Boris Johnson’s premiership and former Tory leader William Hague, have joined the National Trust, the RSPB, the Angling Trust and Wildlife Trusts in criticising what they see as environmental vandalism.

    It follows concerns Truss is treating the leading nature charities as part of a so-called “anti-growth coalition” that she claims to be confronting."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/08/liz-truss-facing-rural-rebellion-over-anti-nature-growth-push

    Worth noting that the NT, English Heritage, RSPB and Wildlife Trusts all have memberships that far exceed the numbers in political parties. Many are not particularly active and treat membership as a sort of voluntary tax to defend the fabric of the country, including myself.

    The polls show that people want growth, but not at any price.


    Trouble is we all know Truss will do it shitly and without any discretion.

    Like with her tax policies she'll simply sweep away all environmental protections and expect growth to magically follow, whereas in fact we'll get lots of cheapass horrible shit built in some lovely places that damages the countryside, the rivers, the air and the locality that does very little for growth whilst creating massive profits for the developer.

    She is a dangerous ideologue.
    I agree, her government will be brief, but the vandalism to our precious island is likely to be longlasting.
    If we are lucky then serial revolts will prevent things from deteriorating further, but the current lot aren't going to do anything about sewage pollution and other serious existing issues. Hardly helpful if we're lumbered with their rancid presence right the way through to January 2025.
    It does seem that Agent Truss is doing what she can to piss off her few remaining voters. The Tory backbenchers may not be quite so keen. A lot expected to have seats for life, yet are likely to be wiped out in the deluge.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,095
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Liz Truss is facing a rural revolt against her plans to prioritise a “dash for economic growth” over nature protection and the environment.

    Senior party figures, including ministers under Boris Johnson’s premiership and former Tory leader William Hague, have joined the National Trust, the RSPB, the Angling Trust and Wildlife Trusts in criticising what they see as environmental vandalism.

    It follows concerns Truss is treating the leading nature charities as part of a so-called “anti-growth coalition” that she claims to be confronting."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/08/liz-truss-facing-rural-rebellion-over-anti-nature-growth-push

    Worth noting that the NT, English Heritage, RSPB and Wildlife Trusts all have memberships that far exceed the numbers in political parties. Many are not particularly active and treat membership as a sort of voluntary tax to defend the fabric of the country, including myself.

    The polls show that people want growth, but not at any price.


    Plantlife now joining the chorus as I see from their monthly email.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,912
    Foxy said:

    stjohn said:

    ping said:

    I think we’re headed for a deep and prolonged recession and a period of asset price deflation throughout all developed economies.

    I’ve sold almost all of my (not very impressive) equity portfolio.

    The era of cheap money has, rather abruptly, come to an end. Most people - and most of our politicians - are like the cartoon character who has run off a cliff, suspended in mid air before the inevitable fall. The value of all the inflated assets are gonna tumble. Negative equity is going to be common. Used car values etc will tumble. Any asset which derives its value from discounted future cashflow will become worth a fraction of its current value.

    This is going to hurt.

    And the government - of whatever colour - is not going to have the fiscal wiggle room to help.

    ping or anyone. Assuming ping is correct, what would happen to interest rates? The Bank of England sets interest rates to control inflation. So if we get deflation would interest rates then fall dramatically?
    It would surely depend on what assets get deflated. To affect BoE interest rate policy they would have to be in CPI or RPI, so not equities for example. I think too that deflation will be real terms rather than absolute, so house prices stagnant while CPI runs at 10% etc.

    House prices, more than the values of other assets, are related somewhat to the cost of finance. Most people buying property are doing so with finance - whereas most people buying stocks, securities, art, classic cars etc, are doing so with cash.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Carnyx said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Liz Truss is facing a rural revolt against her plans to prioritise a “dash for economic growth” over nature protection and the environment.

    Senior party figures, including ministers under Boris Johnson’s premiership and former Tory leader William Hague, have joined the National Trust, the RSPB, the Angling Trust and Wildlife Trusts in criticising what they see as environmental vandalism.

    It follows concerns Truss is treating the leading nature charities as part of a so-called “anti-growth coalition” that she claims to be confronting."

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/08/liz-truss-facing-rural-rebellion-over-anti-nature-growth-push

    Worth noting that the NT, English Heritage, RSPB and Wildlife Trusts all have memberships that far exceed the numbers in political parties. Many are not particularly active and treat membership as a sort of voluntary tax to defend the fabric of the country, including myself.

    The polls show that people want growth, but not at any price.


    Plantlife now joining the chorus as I see from their monthly email.
    That's not a very polite thing to call Tory backbenchers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,620
    The 5 month battle for the village of Dovhenke in a thread:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1578535556061233152?t=56F3qcX--poKpYFJKpkJgw&s=19
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    I currently have a very good view of lots of spray at Suzuka.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,584
    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,584
    ydoethur said:

    I currently have a very good view of lots of spray at Suzuka.

    I'm switching over to the cricket match between England v Aus at 9am.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
    The documentary on Amazon celebrating 60 years of the music of Bond reveals that Radiohead tried to write a Bond theme. Twice.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977

    Unpleasantly surprised and impressed that the Kerch Bridge has reopened so quickly - especially the rail bridge. The remaining question is therefore what limits have been put on it, e.g. weight, and how much capacity of the road and rail bridges have been reduced.

    Looking at the aerial photographs, they were very unlucky not to take out both tracks of the road bridge. The other one must have sustained some damage given the size of the explosion.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    I currently have a very good view of lots of spray at Suzuka.

    I'm switching over to the cricket match between England v Aus at 9am.
    Who's your money on for next Aussie captain now Finch is retiring?

    I'm thinking Alex Carey is probably favourite. Possibly taking over as VC in the Test side as well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,584
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I currently have a very good view of lots of spray at Suzuka.

    I'm switching over to the cricket match between England v Aus at 9am.
    Who's your money on for next Aussie captain now Finch is retiring?

    I'm thinking Alex Carey is probably favourite. Possibly taking over as VC in the Test side as well.
    Steve Smith
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I currently have a very good view of lots of spray at Suzuka.

    I'm switching over to the cricket match between England v Aus at 9am.
    Who's your money on for next Aussie captain now Finch is retiring?

    I'm thinking Alex Carey is probably favourite. Possibly taking over as VC in the Test side as well.
    Steve Smith
    Hmmm.

    He is of course the Test vice-captain. But he would also be a backward step. He might make sense if the idea is to do a holding job for 18 months until Travis Head is fully established.

    I would be slightly surprised. But then I am often surprised by CA. They're even talking about Dave Warner being relieved of his ban on leadership.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,584
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
    Well there is a House of Dragons reference.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,451
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
    The documentary on Amazon celebrating 60 years of the music of Bond reveals that Radiohead tried to write a Bond theme. Twice.
    Dr No Surprises.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
    The documentary on Amazon celebrating 60 years of the music of Bond reveals that Radiohead tried to write a Bond theme. Twice.
    Dr No Surprises.
    Was the draft music For Your Eyes Only?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    What do David Attenborough, Jesus, Jamie Oliver, economists and the (sic) The Economist have in common? They are all part of the Anti Growth Coalition - as revealed in this A-Z of their members that was leaked to me this week*

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/youre-right-liz-the-anti-growth-coalition-is-everywhere-q5t9tg8nb https://twitter.com/CharlotteIvers/status/1578797289682120704/photo/1


  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    FTPT

    With regards to the American midtermsI am not making any substantive bets. I have done some back and lays over the last 2 years when the prices were obviously wrong (Dems were favourite to keep the House at one point!) but I'm not doing anything beyond a modest bet on the GOP failing to take the Senate.

    Reasoning is fundamentally the same as 2018 where I didn't bet. The fundamentals are too disrupted - in 2018 it was the century high turnout that was very obviously going to happen that would mess up the polling. This time it's Roe plus War plus wildly swinging Gas prices/inflation plus my uncertainty over turnout.

    Without those things it would be an obvious GOP sweep. With them and my 8-ball says "Situation Uncertain".
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,461
    Good header TSE. Definitely a Sunday for philosophising......

    Why is it impossible to buy melons in the South of France at the moment because they are out of season when in the UK you can buy them all the year round?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,179
    edited October 9
    Good morning all.

    Fine and bright here, if a little chilly. On topic, one does wonder about Ms Truss' final objective. Is it destruction of the country or the Conservative party?
    Or both?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,784
    Sandpit said:

    It’s raining in Japan.

    Is that code for something, like 'it's snowing in Paris'?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s raining in Japan.

    Is that code for something, like 'it's snowing in Paris'?
    It's snow code.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 248
    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Toms said:

    I have now had five Covidic jabs of various types. None of them had much apparent effect. Two days ago I had an mrna jab and a flu jab in different arms. No particular effect there either. In fact I've had good solid workouts on the turbo trainer, as for the last 11,000 miles since lock down. Am I a peddling zombie?

    More importantly---is Charles still about? I'm only only an occasional PB watcher, but I haven't seen him for a while. I found him human and knowledgeable about things of which I know naught. And from social regions outside my ken.

    Charles decided to stop posting because he didn't like the comments from another poster who claimed to know his family.
    That's nasty. Getting towards stalking?

    I'm surprised OGH and Smithson The Younger tolerated that!
    Absolute fucking nonsense. There was no doxxing element to it, but anyway he posted links to the obituary of some frankly uninteresting old posh buffer who he said was his dad, prompting multiple posts of Oh Charles how awful, I am not upper class enough myself to have had a father but even so I can vaguely see how it must feel to lose one. As the old buffer was called let's say Wayne Potts, it doesn’t take the offspring of sherlock Holmes and Bertrand Russell to deduce Charles's surname.
    Calm down, clam down, clam down. I was just going by what @LostPassword posted. If you are comfortable with what you posted about Charles then fair enough. I wasn't around at the time so it's not for me to judge! 😇
    I'm clam as fcku.
    Maybe! But then you chose to reply to me almost within minutes... Which suggests you were maybe not so calm? 🤷‍♂️

    Like I said, it's not for me to judge. You chose to threaten to "expose" Charles and his family on an internet forum (which ultimately lead him to leave the site) If you are comfortable with this behaviour then fair enough but your almost instant reply to my post suggesting you might not have acted with the best of intentions suggests to me you are probably very uncomfortable with the way you behaved but don't want to admit it...

    In the end I won't judge as it's not my place. But maybe you are judging yourself at this point???
    God what a prick you are. You say in consecutive posts that you don't know what I did, and that I did this that and the other (I didn't). Thank God you are not judging me though, I couldn't have stood that.

    The poster in question was an exceptionally stupid and unsophisticated person's idea of what a posh person is like. I am sure you would have been taken in by him.
    I was quite fascinated by Charles and his name-dropping. I didn't know if it was really but it was interesting. A bit. And then, for reasons I forget now, I wasn't on pb much at the time he 'outed' himself. And now I really, really want to know who he was (/claimed to be!)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,151
    while the Scottish Government strives, with good intention, to be a beacon of progressive policies that embraces the most discriminated against and envelopes the most marginalised to give them voice, it could find itself on the wrong side of history as the gender ideology that has so perfectly entranced politicians and celebrities alike comes up wanting when tested against the law, health provision and fact.

    https://www.holyrood.com/editors-column/view,its-time-we-stopped-allowing-lobby-groups-to-drive-the-debate-on-gender
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,233

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Anything to do with Pizza ?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 6,784
    Tim of blessed memory dubbed him Grant Spiv long ago.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    geoffw said:

    Tim of blessed memory dubbed him Grant Spiv long ago.

    Bit harsh on spivs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    There will be more anarchy when MPs return to Westminster. Since the maxi-disaster of the mini-budget, Ms Truss and her chancellor have been scrambling around for ways to restore their credibility with financial markets. That means trying to make their sums add up. Desperate not to make any more humiliating about-turns on their unfunded tax cuts, they are looking to take the blade to spending. This at a time when public services are grappling with the legacy of the pandemic and the ravaging impact of an inflation rate far higher than was expected when their budgets were set. Substantial sums can only be found by raiding the resources allocated to the four biggest spenders, which are welfare, health, education and defence. “There are not many bleeding stumps left to cut off,” says one senior Tory on the right of his party. “I’m not going to vote for a cut to universal credit, I’m not going to vote for a cut to the NHS, I’m not going to vote for a cut to education, I’m not going to vote for a cut to defence.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/09/johnson-was-slow-poisoning-arsenic-for-tories-liz-truss-is-instant-cyanide
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 248
    Sandpit said:

    It’s raining in Japan.

    Eighties electropop hit, I think?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226

    Sandpit said:

    It’s raining in Japan.

    Eighties electropop hit, I think?
    B-side of Pineapple Pizza
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    🔴Liz Truss will issue a stark warning to Conservative MPs returning to Parliament this week to stop undermining her or face a “monstrous coalition” of Labour and the Scottish National Party https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/08/liz-truss-tells-tory-mps-unite-face-disaster/

    no coalition required, Liz
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    Economics editor of @thetimes confirms that Brexit is a key block to growth. Or “growth, growth, growth” as our robotically repetitive PM likes to say.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/growth-growth-growth-is-hard-hard-hard-bk836m5md?shareToken=bfeecfe6566e22de95ccc211c0b9461f
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
    The documentary on Amazon celebrating 60 years of the music of Bond reveals that Radiohead tried to write a Bond theme. Twice.
    Dr No Surprises.
    Was the draft music For Your Eyes Only?
    This is no time to pun
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
    The documentary on Amazon celebrating 60 years of the music of Bond reveals that Radiohead tried to write a Bond theme. Twice.
    Dr No Surprises.
    Was the draft music For Your Eyes Only?
    This is no time to pun
    You're right. It raises the spectre of a series of Bond jokes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,584
    Taz said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Anything to do with Pizza ?
    No.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
    The documentary on Amazon celebrating 60 years of the music of Bond reveals that Radiohead tried to write a Bond theme. Twice.
    Dr No Surprises.
    Was the draft music For Your Eyes Only?
    This is no time to pun
    You're right. It raises the spectre of a series of Bond jokes.
    Oh dear. The Man With The Golden Pun strikes again.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 104,584
    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s raining in Japan.

    Is that code for something, like 'it's snowing in Paris'?
    Change at Baker Street.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392

    On topic, can you please not describe Grant Shapps as a great lay.

    Thanks.

    How do you know he isn’t… unless…?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,226
    the new Tory attack line (Labour will form a "monstrous coalition" with other parties) is a little less persuasive when Labour is 30 points ahead
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1579019286722461696
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    On topic, can you please not describe Grant Shapps as a great lay.

    Thanks.

    How do you know he isn’t… unless…?
    He screwed everyone living in the North East. They weren't too happy with him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
    The documentary on Amazon celebrating 60 years of the music of Bond reveals that Radiohead tried to write a Bond theme. Twice.
    Dr No Surprises.
    Was the draft music For Your Eyes Only?
    This is no time to pun
    You're right. It raises the spectre of a series of Bond jokes.
    Oh dear. The Man With The Golden Pun strikes again.
    I can pun the living daylights out of the rest of you.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    Scott_xP said:

    the new Tory attack line (Labour will form a "monstrous coalition" with other parties) is a little less persuasive when Labour is 30 points ahead
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1579019286722461696

    Besides, at this stage of the game most people would probably welcome our new Scottish overlords regardless.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392
    ping said:

    I think we’re headed for a deep and prolonged recession and a period of asset price deflation throughout all developed economies.

    I’ve sold almost all of my (not very impressive) equity portfolio.

    The era of cheap money has, rather abruptly, come to an end. Most people - and most of our politicians - are like the cartoon character who has run off a cliff, suspended in mid air before the inevitable fall. The value of all the inflated assets are gonna tumble. Negative equity is going to be common. Used car values etc will tumble. Any asset which derives its value from discounted future cashflow will become worth a fraction of its current value.

    This is going to hurt.

    And the government - of whatever colour - is not going to have the fiscal wiggle room to help.

    And - brutal as it may seem - the government should not help (beyond the normal help for people on welfare - I’m no @BartholomewRoberts !)

    Covid and energy price spikes due to foreign wars are not the fault of individuals, so it is reasonable that society, via the government, steps in to help

    People losing money because asset prices fall? Well you decided to buy it… if you didn’t think through the risk that interest rates would likely go up in future that’s your fault. It’s entirely your right to blame the government for it (and many are!) but not to expect a bailout

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,354
    Scott_xP said:

    the new Tory attack line (Labour will form a "monstrous coalition" with other parties) is a little less persuasive when Labour is 30 points ahead
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1579019286722461696

    Big shout out for Scots not having to vote for Labour cos the English will do it all by their ickle selves.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157

    geoffw said:

    Sandpit said:

    It’s raining in Japan.

    Is that code for something, like 'it's snowing in Paris'?
    Change at Baker Street.
    The long sobs of the violins of Autumn wound my heart with a monotonous languor.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 3,157
    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    pigeon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    On topic:

    QTWTAIN.

    I've got a humdinger of a QTWTAIN/Y this afternoon.
    Are you going to compare House of Dragons to Radiohead?
    The documentary on Amazon celebrating 60 years of the music of Bond reveals that Radiohead tried to write a Bond theme. Twice.
    Dr No Surprises.
    Was the draft music For Your Eyes Only?
    This is no time to pun
    You're right. It raises the spectre of a series of Bond jokes.
    Oh dear. The Man With The Golden Pun strikes again.
    I can pun the living daylights out of the rest of you.
    Live and let pun, that's what I say
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392
    Dura_Ace said:

    Off on a Car Collection Caper to the Balkans. My subsequent absence should not be interpreted as death by motorcycle accident or mobiliZation. It's 100x more complicated than it should be due to Brexit so fuck every who voted for it deep in the rectum.

    I’m not sure that votes put deep in the rectum would have been counted?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,000


    Liz Truss is completely right about an anti-growth coalition.

    The problem is it includes a large number of her backbenchers.

    Not for a nanosecond do I believe Labour, the LDs, the Greens (yes, them as well) as well as almost every other non-Conservative organisation don't want economic growth.

    I see the CBI Director General is a fully paid-up member of the Truss Bunker and hangs on her and Kwarteng's every word. Pity, business has a plurality of voices and I bet they don't all support the Government so slavishly.

    Where Truss and her adherents have made such a monumental error is to grossly misread the public mood. It's not 1980 any more - while the notion of cutting tax for the lowest paid does have support, the notion of cutting tax for those already wealthy on the spurious argument making them even wealthier helps us all doesn't wash any more.

    There's a strong notion of "fairness" and some may ridicule that as naive or even inane but the fact remains the very strong sense is you don't make the poorest a little richer by making the rich a lot richer. Indeed, the rich can and perhaps should pay even more to reduce the burden on the lowest paid and the poorest.

    I'm more than happy to debate economic growth and how we achieve that - some have argued raising taxes and increasing public spending into infrastructure projects is one way of achieving growth. I certainly think we should eschew further borrowing currently and we've discussed taxing wealth rather than income as an option though I think that needs a lot more thought.
  • TresTres Posts: 1,362
    I thought Truss said she wan't going to enforce the ministerial code (neither did Joris tbf)
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,755
    It seems my assumption about Russian retribution for Kerch was right. They’ve lobbed a few missiles at civilian targets.

    https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1578963343015976960?s=21&t=XNTxEgIQU_Ok2E9oWmNVUQ

    https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1578994181716217856?s=21&t=XNTxEgIQU_Ok2E9oWmNVUQ

    Bear in mind that following the sham referendum Zaphorizhzhia is part of Russia as far as Putin is concerned. Taking care of their new citizens in the same way they took care of their Chechens in the 1990s.

    As for the bridge, here’s what the railway looks like today. Not sure I’d be putting trains across it. The blown out fuel train is still there.

    https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1578781478623842305?s=21&t=XNTxEgIQU_Ok2E9oWmNVUQ
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,392
    stjohn said:

    ping said:

    I think we’re headed for a deep and prolonged recession and a period of asset price deflation throughout all developed economies.

    I’ve sold almost all of my (not very impressive) equity portfolio.

    The era of cheap money has, rather abruptly, come to an end. Most people - and most of our politicians - are like the cartoon character who has run off a cliff, suspended in mid air before the inevitable fall. The value of all the inflated assets are gonna tumble. Negative equity is going to be common. Used car values etc will tumble. Any asset which derives its value from discounted future cashflow will become worth a fraction of its current value.

    This is going to hurt.

    And the government - of whatever colour - is not going to have the fiscal wiggle room to help.

    ping or anyone. Assuming ping is correct, what would happen to interest rates? The Bank of England sets interest rates to control inflation. So if we get deflation would interest rates then fall dramatically?
    I would say yes. But Andrew Bailey…
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    edited October 9
    For the second year running, Verstappen wins a championship on the stewards' decision.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    edited October 9
    TimS said:

    It seems my assumption about Russian retribution for Kerch was right. They’ve lobbed a few missiles at civilian targets.

    https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1578963343015976960?s=21&t=XNTxEgIQU_Ok2E9oWmNVUQ

    https://twitter.com/christopherjm/status/1578994181716217856?s=21&t=XNTxEgIQU_Ok2E9oWmNVUQ

    Bear in mind that following the sham referendum Zaphorizhzhia is part of Russia as far as Putin is concerned. Taking care of their new citizens in the same way they took care of their Chechens in the 1990s.

    As for the bridge, here’s what the railway looks like today. Not sure I’d be putting trains across it. The blown out fuel train is still there.

    https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1578781478623842305?s=21&t=XNTxEgIQU_Ok2E9oWmNVUQ

    If you stripped the buckled walkways off it I'm sure it would look a hundred times better
This discussion has been closed.