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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » I think Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis but if he doesn’t watch out for Norman Lamb, the LD John Major
I’ve been getting a number of requests for my view on whether Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis and what my thoughts are on a likely successor.
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Therefore Clegg's position will be strengthened (even though he is bang out of order) and the question of leadership change will not arise.
Some of the longest standing donors, party activists and supporters (including in the business community) are looking at this and deciding to 'take a break for a while'. These are people who, quite reasonably in my opinion, take a pragmatic view which is nevertheless likely to significantly impact on, for instance, the Euro elections.
That does not include, of course, those for whom this crisis has become a crisis of conscience. leading them to conclude that the party is simply not a place where people who believe in due process, as a principal, should be.
The bitterness engendered by these events will handicap the party for years to come. Reducing the ability to win by-elections, to put it mildly, which those of us who have been around for a long time know means the party is in deep trouble.
From a betting perspective, a radically reduced Liberal Democrat presence in the Commons after the next election must surely make a Labour victory more likely does it not?
Finally, if the UK's unashamedly pro European party is reduced to, say, a third of its current size in the commons, It's ability to resist the drive to 'Brexit' must also be reduced.
A butterflies wings and all that.
http://www.coindesk.com/reality-keys-bitcoins-third-party-guarantor-contracts/
From the betting point of view the effect will be like having an automated Peter the Punter, except that:
- It doesn't need to hold money for you to prevent the other party from welching.
- You could still get the money without it given the cooperation of the other party.
- It doesn't need to know who you are.
- It doesn't need to know anything about your bet.
You could check with Michael Brown for more details if required?
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2012/may/01/lib-dem-donor-michael-brown-jail
If, as it appears, she's a LD supporter, then she's doing the party no favours.
To be fair, Rennard has said something like "If I have upset anyone I'm sorry".
In fact, Lamb has been involved in the Rennard scandal himself. One of the victims confided in Norman Lamb. How he's managed to escape media attention on this when it was initially reporting in the Guardian I'm unsure.
What??? John Major in November was the Chancellor of the Exchequer. I'd say that was pretty damn well known.
There should be another reason why the women are owed an apology. Some people in Rennard's camp, and some on here, accused the women of having a political campaign against him wrt the Eastleigh by-election.
This has been proved not to be the case. That allegation should be withdrawn immediately.
As for the Mittelstand and comparisons with the UK, read the following and weep. It's the Daily Mail, I know, but it rings so true:
Selling British businesses and assets for short term shareholder value and calling it “Inward Investment” is not the answer.
Mergers and acquisitions are no match for organic growth strategies; neither is paying the largest dividends as a percentage of profits of all developed economies.
The UK has an abundance of entrepreneurs but cannot emulate the Mittelstand – the small and medium businesses that are the backbone of the German economy.
All too often starved of adequate bank finance, those that make it over the first hurdles are soon driven into the arms of private equity or the stock market and too many are swallowed up and disappear.
Lord Bamford, who chairs JCB, his family firm, said to me not long ago: ‘If my Dad or I had gone to the stock market for money, we would not be here any more.’
His words should haunt British politicians. If the UK wants to reduce its dependence on the City and get properly into the international race and not with an arm tied behind its back, it should do something about growing more SMEs into JCBs. It’s the real economy, stupid!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-2542232/Will-British-economy-overtake-Germany-Pigs-fly.html#ixzz2r0xiuf77
Your family firm is the exception not the rule. We need a lot more like yours, but the way things work in the UK does not encourage it.
However let's step back from the detail. For this to have become a political crisis is an appalling failure of Cleggs leadership, which seemed desperate for the whole thing to quietly go away. Anyway, bringing the party into disrepute. A party which explicitly lied to the electorate and conspired internally to do so, which lied to its own party members about its intentions to do so, which has seen year on year collapses in votes which has collapsed local representation so that LibDems have gone from being a substantial minority on a council's ruling group to having no councillors in 3 years, with a corresponding collapse in party members and an electoral strategy for the general election which reportedly resembles siege defence of their remaining bastions.
Forget Rennard, shouldn't Nick Clegg suspend Nick Clegg for bringing the party into disrepute?
The wrong was that after Round I of my legal adventures, and bringing the bad news to my dumbstruck opponents that they must bear the entire costs personally, they were reduced to writing a begging letter to the whole membership.
Unfortunately, they couldn't resist filling it with malicious rubbish, such as
I had been expelled [nope, I had been wrongfully expelled, as you have just agreed in a court order]
I had conspired to injure the club by going to law. [Nope, I sued named individuals, not the club, you left me with no option, you were told in advance, you could have behaved differently, settled earlier, etc]
I was continuing to 'threaten the club' with further legal action. [Nope, see above, Neminem laedit qui jure suo utitur]
So my libel lawyer wrote to them that if they didn't circulate another letter withdrawing and apologising for these malicious falsehoods they would be doing the same at the High Court in the Strand, with the usual consequences...
Oh, and there was a four figure bill attached to his letter.
They left me alone at that point. ;-)
In Scotland because of the need for corroboration we developed what is known as the Moorov doctrine. In simple terms this means that if various complainants allege that the same modus operandi is used on various occasions then they can corroborate each other and allow a conviction.
If the 4 women in this case were "broadly credible" then the fact that they were apparently all alleging the same mode of behaviour should have been sufficient to find the charges against Rennard proven. If they were not then the apologies issue is completely moot. It appears to me that Webster's reluctance to reach a conclusion one way or another (possibly because of the threat of legal challenge) has caused this mess.
Lord Rennard has never been charged by the criminal authorites with anything but there is a lot of behaviour that is not acceptable in a work or social activity that falls short of the level of seriousness that is required by the criminal law. I am in no position at all to judge how "broadly credible" the women were but those that were tasked with this have failed to do their job one way or another.
On thread - surely it's open for Opik?
That's right. Just like the Tories went for Douglas Hurd.
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft47 mins
Jessica Lee MP steps down: 11 per cent of Tory women elected in 2010 have decided to leave Parliament http://bit.ly/1f7Xei4
The possession of power - or even merely opportunity - is simply too much of a temptation for some men. And the criminal law is a blunt instrument, made blunter by those who suppose verdicts are findings of fact.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2543082/Kettering-General-Hospital-refuses-release-report-girl-17-died-routine-operation-endanger-mental-health-staff.html
The solution is simple: the report should be anonymised. And the management who made the decision not to release the report, on the face of it, should be retrained or fired.
However for the great unwashed - all non PBers - I would suggest the issue now broadly comes down to Clegg asking Rennard to apologize for any unwitting poor behaviour toward the women concerned. Is this a bad position for Clegg to hold, I'd have thought not ? .... and as the perhaps future Broxtowe MP on the previous thread noted Rennardgate has seen a 3 point YouGov bounce for the LibDems.
Talk of Clegg resigning is ridiculously fanciful. From the start of the Coalition pundits have completely underestimated the determination of Clegg and Cameron to see this project through to May 2015 and both men have endured hits and had to negotiate the tricky waters of two diverse parties working together. To my mind it's been remarkable how solid the government has been.
As for Norman Lamb, he's an excellent constituency MP and thoughtful politician who's been extremely loyal to Clegg and the Coalition but he's most unlikely to be a serious contender to succeed Clegg.
........................................
@fitalass at 1251am
Noted and agreed. Apologies I didn't reply early as I was in the land of worthy nodders.
Webster misdirected himself on several levels.
He appeared to apply the wrong test. He actually found OTBOP for Rennard, but seemed to dress it up as the exact opposite.
He had no business, as Prosecutor, purporting to make findings of fact (acting as a Judge.)
He had no business directing Rennard to do anything (and listening to him last night he seemed to back-pedal, leaving the LDs latest disciplinary actions sunk at the very moment of launch)
"Oh mother that was a quite remarkable experience, remarkable and do you know I feel in years to come I may recount this journey from the rear seat of a motor car .... quite remarkable ... any news of the test match ?"
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/lord-rennard-analysis-a-battle-between-rules-and-political-expediency-9073337.html
As I asked last night, though, what exactly does a victory for Rennard look like? He stays in a party of which a significant number of members loathe him?
Bah, Berdych beat Ferrer. Maybe I shouldn't back Spaniards anymore.
Each of the parties has now had three "scandals" that have not made the blindest bit of difference to VI, no matter how much those on here scream about it and wish it to be so?
Anyone remember Falkirk? Ashcroft?
Thought not.
Naughty !!
Good name in man and woman, dear my lord,
Is the immediate jewel of their souls:
Who steals my purse steals trash; 'tis something, nothing;
'Twas mine, 'tis his, and has been slave to thousands;
But he that filches from me my good name
Robs me of that which not enriches him
And makes me poor indeed.
Othello, Act 3, Scene 3
1-the threat to Clegg's leadership would have been if he'd gone outside the rules and dismissed Rennard, suspended him personally, or taken legal action. Clegg has followed LD rules however daft and that's why he is safe.
2-Rennard would resign if he had a shred of common sense; there is no way back and it's best for him now let alone anyone else. CR will be persona non grata in local parties across the country.
3-in my view Tim Farron has had a bad war this time. As president he's the link between the leadership and membership, and he's failed to prevent civil war this week. First email to members was yesterday, far far too late. I'm less likely to vote for him as leader now.
4-Norman Lamb could well be the choice of grey suits, but a revolting party won't listen to the suits at the moment and there would be a contested leadership if it came to it. Not sure Norman would do very well there, probably because he'd actually make a good leader.
At party level, it does suggest a certain carelessness in the selection process. It may also be that Cameron's reluctance to reshuffle has come home to roost. If backbenchers see no hope of promotion, then £60k for a job with no prospects starts to seem like a life sentence for anyone with talent.
Falkirk, on the other hand, was a first-rate scandal that shows that Labour is the *real* nasty party. I mean, it almost took down a massive industrial concern and employer.
Northampton North has been added to the previously selected Broxtowe and Watford for the "JackW Dozen" - 13 marginal seats that will help determine the result of the 2015 GE :
Northampton North 2010 Result :
Con 13,735 .. 34.1% .. +4.4 .. Michael Ellis
Lab 11,799 .. 29.3% .. −9.4 .. Sally Keeble
LD 11,250 .. 27.9% .. +1.0 .. Andrew Simpson
Jump before being pushed is what am thinking.
What makes Rennard different is the gender politics: it might play badly with lady voters and LibDem activists.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/21/lord-rennard-why-sexual-harassment-matters?CMP=twt_gu
The fact that it didn't resonate with the Labour voting population, or impact VI to any significant margin, says more about the attitude we have to the political establishment than it does about the innate scandalous nature of the incident.
In decades past it would have signalled the end of Ed's leadership.
I'm not saying that this particular incident was any worse than other "scandals" that have befallen other parties, but it does highlight how things have changed.
Sensible Labour supporters realised this. Stupid ones went "look, squirrel!"
The Co-operative Group is to cut its near-£1m annual donation to the Labour Party as a result of the problems at its banking arm.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10581850/Co-op-to-end-1m-annual-donation-to-Labour.html
As I've said passim, Labour is the real nasty party.
Vince, Tim Farron, Lamb, Huhne, Carmichael and Danny Alexander.
I have absolutely no idea what I was smoking when I backed Danny Alexander.
I think Chris Huhne has a better chance.
So in a scenario where the LDs might end up with 30 or so MPs - a moderate but not complete collapse - they may well have 1 or conceivably 0 female MPs.
Could this conceivably be a party that selects female MPs on merit without putting any barriers (hidden or otherwise) in their way? Since you dismiss Toynbee's solution and suggest no alternative, you seem to think that.
"The Coalition’s primary stated objective on taking office was the elimination of the UK’s structural deficit within a five-year term. In this it has palpably failed. Collectively, we are set to borrow £190bn more during the course of this parliament than planned at the time of the June 2010 emergency Budget."
"This tying up of capital and labour in non-productive activity has engendered a false sense of security and boosted short-term employment levels, but it augurs ill in the teeth of fierce global competition in the decades ahead."
"A sustainable household recovery cannot feasibly emerge from a diet of never-ending cheap credit and a new housing boom. Whilst it may be politically canny to shower more future public spending on pensioners in preference to investing in younger voters, it is not the route towards a more competitive economy. Indeed it has been a long-held fear of mine that the most talented of our younger generation will react to their raw deal simply by leaving these shores, probably never to return."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10583026/Ultra-low-interest-rates-carry-a-cost-and-its-starting-to-rack-up.html
If the MP for the City and Westminster can see the problems it suggests the Osborne cheerleaders are being willfully blind.
The women's accusations didn't come up to the standard of proof, not even on the balance of probabilities. [the test that the rules and guidelines mandate the Prosecutor to apply]
But saying that straight would of course unleash the harpies of hell down on our heads.
So it was fudged to placate them. "Applying the formula X% * Y% * SQRT[FA] finds your allegations 'broadly credible' [i.e. not necessarily utter bunkum] and therefore Rennard was guilty of [insert preferred Orwellian crime, not on the charge-sheet], and ought to apologise (if he wishes)..."
Norman Lamb is an old friend from the time we were both on the Treasury committee - he's level-headed, reasonable and not obviously ideological - I'd struggle to place him as an Orange Booker or radical or whatever. He's the sober choice, pleasant on TV and in person, and would do the job of steadying the ship very well. But if there's been an electoral massacre (at least in terms of share of vote) then, as tpfkar hints, those may not be the qualities the members will look for first.
The discussion of job-hopping is interesting. From personal experience (my own and others I know), it's not easy to switch from being an MP to something else if you've had more than a 5-year gap, even if you were very successful in a former career - you're almost certainly out of touch with it now (unless you've kept it up as a second job, to hisses of disapproval from the media). Since there is only one Parliament, you can't just switch jobs as you might from Oracle to Microsoft - you need to change to a new career. My IT career was long gone, so I hastily reinvented myself as a voluntary sector policymaker, a translator and a lecturer for foreign delegations and between the three of them ended up doing well - but at age 60 I was aware that I'd been lucky.
That cliff-edge existence (at least in marginal seats) does affect MP attitudes. Most short-term MPs do have lucrative career options - I've nearly always earned more when I wasn't an MP and so have many others. If you don't think you'll be promoted to Minister, pay is near-frozen and pensions are reduced, you need to decide if idealism and serving the cause are enough for the long haul.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3292/More-support-than-opposition-for-bedroom-tax-but-policy-divides-opinion.aspx
"More of the public support than oppose the reduction of housing benefit for under-occupying social housing tenants, according to an Ipsos MORI poll conducted for the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) published today.
a plurality (not a majority) support the policy both in principle and after a more detailed briefing of what it involves;"
Heard rumours that Kobayashi and someone else could drive for them.
I'm not on Farron because he's always been too short.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-25820928
If they do, then this story will run and run all the way, perhaps, to the 2015 GE.
What's really amazing is that large countries appoint completely inexperienced people to top jobs, like Prime Minister. If you think you might be good at running a large country, you should be expected to prove yourself with a successful stint as Prime Minister of a smaller country first.
From today's Glasgow Herald :
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/wider-political-news/ukip-send-scots-chairman-for-anti-sectarianism-counselling.23232791
"THE UK Independence Party have referred their interim Scottish chairman to a leading anti-sectarianism charity after he described a local authority as being for "gays, Catholics and Communists"."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25808399
UKIP Bexley
@UKIPBexley
http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/10950551._/?ref=twtrec …
No comment on the story itself, but if this was a UKIP Cllr it would be front page news!
All governments produce legislation that disadvantages one section of society to the advantage of another: sometimes those disadvantages are slight; in others they are major. That can only be stopped if you believe in the magic money tree.
I mean, are you really saying Labour is faultless on this? For instance, who signed the lamentable ATOS?
And as for personal nastiness, you can't beat the 'Ginger Rodent' comment. A nasty comment that was actually scripted, and was not even off-the-cuff. What happened to the person who uttered it?
If you go about calling other people 'nasty', you really have to ensure that you are not nasty.
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-cup/west-ham-v-man-city/total-away-goals
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2014/01/20/gene-haas-and-formula-1/
I can see Chris Huhne becoming quite the gay icon.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2542638/Women-children-worth-big-City-firms-Nigel-Farage-claims.html
Interesting to see that the Mail is quite happy to give Nigel Farage a kicking when it suits them.
An interesting approach...
It's a shame: I really rated him. He deserved another chance, more so that Perez IMHO.
The problem with Lamb, for Farron, Davey and all those of that generation is that he too is of it. If he were to get the gig, who knows how long he might be there. He'd also be vaulting over them in terms of seniority. There'd be legitimate questions about whether he could establish his authority: a serious concern were Rennardgate to topple Clegg. By contrast, Major was already Chancellor of the Exchequer: a much more formidable launchpad.
Cable is someone who the party could certainly unite around, who could provide clear yellow water at the election from both other major parties and who the media would take seriously as leader, and who could be expected to depart the stage gracefully in 2015/16. Whether that makes his odds good value is a different question.
People who take a year or two off earn less than those who don't, what a surprise!
I didn't read that article as being critical of Farage at all, let alone a kicking, it just reported what happened.
Depends on your viewpoint I suppose
The Hulkenberg/Perez lineup will be interesting to watch, as will the Ferraris and Mercedes.
Remaining Lib Dem members are tough, and very tribal. So I don't see many members going over this. Where it hurts is that the party which prides itself on equality and dealing with sexism has been shown to be absolutely useless when it really comes to it. Talking the talk but not living it out. I think it will affect some swing voters but won't overplay it; it takes a genuinely big scandal to change voting behaviour en masse as discussed in this thread, and it's more about denting morale and stopping any campaigning going on; no-one is discussing mental health which was the plan for this week.
Finally thanks for the invite to the Pirate Party the other day. I may not be a very good Lib Dem but I'm sure I'd make a lousy pirate
I've confined my comments on Rennard so far to my blog safe in the knowledge that no one will read them there.
I've been a Party member for over 30 years (joined the Liberal Party (as was) in 1980). Compared to the events of the merger and tuition fees, this is the proverbial "little local difficulty". I imagine there have been times when Nick Clegg (and indeed Charles K, Paddy and even David Steel) would have wished to have had the option of a more Stalinist style of leadership but that's democracy for you.
Many in the Party (and especially among the 1997 intake of MPs) owe Chris Rennard a great deal. Along with Norman Lamont and Paddy Ashdown, he probably did more to re-invigorate the nascent LDs after the merger debacle - we were polling worse in 1989-90.
I won't pretend I have any insight into Rennard - I've probably stood in the same room as him three or four times at Party Conferences and he was admired if not worshipped by a generation of successful local activists - I used campaigning tips from him when I was politically active in the 80s and 90s. That said, the statement yesterday read as that of a broken man or a man broken by events. I would wish him to withdraw into the shadows and take care of his own health and life and in that aspect I wish him well.
The Party has not dealt with this well but it's not the only institution of late which has struggled with issues like this. It has to do better and be seen to do better. I've been to enough Party Conferences (and I suspect it's the same in other parties) to know they are surreal situations where the normal bounds of personal behaviour can be stretched and broken. The point is that belonging to any political party should be enjoyable if not necessarily rewarding. I've delivered enough leaflets along streets in the rain to question my own sanity on numerous occasions and I suspect others on here will understand that but ultimately it should be about doing something you believe in with like-minded (rarely) people.
However, the experience should be positive - I know couples who got together through both being Party members (and after all, that's what the Conservative Party was for in the 50s and 60s) and that's fine but in all things there is a negative side and whatever your own personal morality, as a servant of the Party (and even as an ordinary member) you owe it to the Party to make the experience of membership for all as positive as possible. After all, you want more people to join - conveying a positive image is perhaps the start of that. The main parties (and increasingly UKIP too) all look tainted and tarnished. That's probably because they have people in them - you may only want the saints to join but the sinner can believe in your political goals (or think they do) and pay their sub as well and I refer you to the case law of Beggars vs Choosers..