Ken Clarke is saying they have to makes some sort of statement in the next few days to calm the markets, and it can't wait until November, according to the jazzman.
Didn't the BoE do that just yesterday?
Not sure what kind of statement you expect them to make. Reversing on the mini budget won't calm the market since the market has woken up to the energy market money being the issue, not the two billion disputed politically in the news, and reversing that energy support isn't viable.
There's no point acting like headless chickens now, keep calm and carry on. And the BoE buying gilts rather than selling them should calm the markets down.
The market didn’t go crazy until the (non-)budget. The market was OK when the Government had previously announced action on energy costs.
Indeed, which was the market being illogical. The market often is.
As I said, the market knew about the hundred and fifty billion potentially for energy support, it knew about the hundreds of billions we've just borrowed for Covid, it knew about the £38 billion in tax rise reversals Truss had committed to.
The notion that a further £2 billion (in theory) tax cut, which will likely cost nothing like that and could even be revenue neutral or positive, is the irresponsible straw that broke the camel's back is just prima facie absurd.
If you believe in your statement "... the market being illogical." You have a much worse understanding of economics than you make out.
The market is frequently illogical and tends to have a herd mentality in short term periods. People buying because others are buying, or selling because others are selling, can cause irrational behaviour in the short term.
Its just like the petrol forecourts running out of petrol last year, not because there was any serious disruption to supplies, but instead because a couple of forecourts ran out while switching from 5% to 10% biofuel unleaded and this got misreported and led to a stampede at the forecourts, which led to us having a nationwide fuel shortage for no good reason.
Its important to differentiate between the short term and long term, irrational behaviour always exists and identifying it is important.
Markets are frequently out of line with what fundamentals seem to indicate but this does not mean that they are irrational. Those monkeying about trying to earn a quick buck understand that the only thing that matters is supply and demand (not fundamentals) and are capitalising by anticipating flows by getting in on the right side first. This is not irrational.
Shashank Joshi @shashj · 1h A point of no return. Largest forcible annexation of European territory since WW2. Commits him to defend it in perpetuity & capture the parts of it he doesn't occupy (lots). Prevents him giving it back to Ukraine as part of a settlement. And increases risk of escalation.
If Truss cannot restore confidence with the markets very soon, surely she will have to be forced out of number 10? There is no other credible emergency replacement than Teresa May, in my opinion. She actually won a General Election. As did Boris - but I can't see his return as a unity candidate in a coronation.
Use your brain. He can't now "walk away" even if he wants to. This is "Russia". No Russian leader can abandon parts of Russia. This annexation is designed to tie his own hands and those of any successor; the war is now existential and is being fought on Russian territory
Folks 'na zapade' just refuse to believe that the SMO is as existential for Russia as it is for Ukraine but it is.
I'm a bit of an expert on geopolitics now as our Ukrainians like playing Crusader Kings 3 on the PS5. More accurately they like to watch me play it for their entertainment and criticise all my decisions.
Nope, it is existential for Putin and his henchmen. They are not the living embodiment of Russia, anymore than Jacob Rees-Mogg or Nigel Farage is the living embodiment of England. How are your Ukraine war predictions going by the way? I get the sense they are about as reliable as Kwasi Kwarteng's economics or Liz Truss's presentation skills.
The predictions were made on the basis of
- what happened in 2014. Nearly all the experts expected a repeat. Until “I need weapons not a ride out of town”… - the only previous defeat of an armoured invasion force by anti-tank missiles I can think of is Chad vs Libya. All other wars have shown antitank missiles to be nasty but not war winning.
If Truss cannot restore confidence with the markets very soon, surely she will have to be forced out of number 10? There is no other credible emergency replacement than Teresa May, in my opinion. She actually won a General Election. As did Boris - but I can't see his return as a unity candidate in a coronation.
I think the chance of a Johnson return is close to zero but have refrained from laying him due to the likely time to settlement given the current disincentive to tie up money.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
if the young were more worried about covid than the middle aged thats a devsatating indictment of our education system....in reality i think the young are generally left wing and the left favoured lockdowns so the young followed the herd
Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....
Charlie Stross @cstross I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
Truss will continue to refuse indyref2, only way it may happen is a Starmer government reliant on SNP support
Perfectly logical to sell gilts and the pound if you conclude the PM and Chancellor are clueless numpties.
Quite. It really is as simple as that.
Yes.
And even if it's all "hysteria", as claimed by a poster on here, one of the first jobs of government is to avoid triggering hysteria in the financial markets. Not do everything they can to provoke it. Because "hysteria" in the financial markets tends to be quite bad news.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Use your brain. He can't now "walk away" even if he wants to. This is "Russia". No Russian leader can abandon parts of Russia. This annexation is designed to tie his own hands and those of any successor; the war is now existential and is being fought on Russian territory
Folks 'na zapade' just refuse to believe that the SMO is as existential for Russia as it is for Ukraine but it is.
I'm a bit of an expert on geopolitics now as our Ukrainians like playing Crusader Kings 3 on the PS5. More accurately they like to watch me play it for their entertainment and criticise all my decisions.
Nope, it is existential for Putin and his henchmen. They are not the living embodiment of Russia, anymore than Jacob Rees-Mogg or Nigel Farage is the living embodiment of England. How are your Ukraine war predictions going by the way? I get the sense they are about as reliable as Kwasi Kwarteng's economics or Liz Truss's presentation skills.
The predictions were made on the basis of
- what happened in 2014. Nearly all the experts expected a repeat. Until “I need weapons not a ride out of town”… - the only previous defeat of an armoured invasion force by anti-tank missiles I can think of is Chad vs Libya. All other wars have shown antitank missiles to be nasty but not war winning.
What about Azerbaijan’s defeat of Armenia?
You are right. The drone thing was evident there as well.
The Armenians, come to think of it, we’re using Russian style “tactics”. Or lack of them. Driving a single unsupported tank around in the vicinity of a semi competent enemy is not a good idea. And hasn’t been since about 1916
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
A 50% drop would be a little more than just pain and disruption.
Chris Philp will be delighted that Truss's interview rounds are getting all the attention, as he was dreadful on R4 this morning.
For 15 minutes, basically he just repeatedly said "Putin" in response to every question about who's to blame for the current turmoil. I'm not sure that blaming Putin for Kwarteng's 'budget' and its consequences is necessarily a winner.
Chris Philip is a product of a grammar school and the university of Oxford, is a there a more ghastly combo?
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
Do you believe a house price crash was the deliberate policy of Truss and Kwarteng, or is it a surprise to them?
If it’s a deliberate policy, they’ve been lying to people because they never admitted this. If it was unintended, then you must agree that they’re incompetent.
Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....
Charlie Stross @cstross I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
Truss will continue to refuse indyref2, only way it may happen is a Starmer government reliant on SNP support
Can Truss stop the SNP resigning and forcing a new Scottish Parliament election where Independence will be the slogan of the SNP and Scottish Greens.
Ed Davey must be excited about being the official Leader of the Opposition after the election.
Sir Ed v Sir Keir, sounds very Game of Thrones.
If there was to be a non Tory leader of the Opposition to a Starmer government it would be led by Farage not Davey, if the Tories completely collapsed Canada 1993 style and were replaced by RefUK
You will know more than I do how many seats the LD’s are second to the Tories in so I am possibly wrong but surely if the Tories haemorrhage votes a lot will go to the Lib Dems as things stand (West Country, Winchester type seats).
If there is a Farage party up and running ahead of the next election they will indeed attract a lump of Tory votes but of the Tory vote gets split three ways (Farage, Tory hold-outs and LD) then the Tories will be wiped and Faragists unlikely to pick up many seats at the election.
Added to those seats that will go from Tory to Labour I can easily see a way for Ed Davey to be next leader of the opposition.
No, if the Tory vote collapsed completely ie to about 10% most of that would go to Farage as in the European elections who would then win most of the remaining Tory safe seats while Labour picked up most of the marginals. Even if the LDs picked up a few Tory home counties seats
No, most of it wouldn't go to Farage.
At 28% the Tory vote has already collapsed by 17% on the GE and most of the switchers have not gone to Farage. According to the YouGov poll with Labour 17% ahead, the voting intention of Con 2019 voters is that 12% of those voting would now vote Labour, 6% Reform UK 3% the LDs, 3% Green and 2% Others. So of those switching, little more than a fifth have switched to Reform.
So even in an incredible scenario where the Tory vote collapsed to 10% (i.e. double the present collapse) there's no way that Reform/Farage would get most of the switchers. The different between the European elections and now is that any Tory switchers to Labour would not have to contemplate voting for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn, so the Euro election precedent is irrelevant.
That 28% is the rightwing core vote, the swing voters have largely already gone Labour or LD.
The Tories are unlikely to lose that 28% core but if they did most of them would go to Farage. After all most of them already voted for Farage at the European elections
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
Would be very interested to hear your findings.
My (equally anecdotal) understanding from young people in my family (cousins, siblings, and their friends) was a big concern for the elder generation in our family (my maternal grandparents are still with us, and my paternal ones managed most of the lockdowns before passing). That may be anomalous though, as my dad and sister lived with my grandmother, and my family is very close and so weekly meals with grandparents became weekly zoom calls. I would say 2/3rds of the under 25s in the family were very strict, the other 3rd masked, tested whenever they went out, but still wanted to go out.
Chris Philp will be delighted that Truss's interview rounds are getting all the attention, as he was dreadful on R4 this morning.
For 15 minutes, basically he just repeatedly said "Putin" in response to every question about who's to blame for the current turmoil. I'm not sure that blaming Putin for Kwarteng's 'budget' and its consequences is necessarily a winner.
Chris Philip is a product of a grammar school and the university of Oxford, is a there a more ghastly combo?
It is a very sharp and witty line - it's also fairly cruel. Not saying she shouldn't have said it mind.
It's my impression that she has got better consistently since having the grace to apologise over the 'Tory scum' remark, and the Sharon Stone comparison, (probably entirely made up by some journalist) which drew a good deal of attention to the fact that she is who she is and she's got character.
If Truss cannot restore confidence with the markets very soon, surely she will have to be forced out of number 10? There is no other credible emergency replacement than Teresa May, in my opinion. She actually won a General Election. As did Boris - but I can't see his return as a unity candidate in a coronation.
Mr. Kirk, the apology for the 'Tory scum' remark was dragged out of Rayner after she refused to do so initially. For me, Rayner's a con, not a pro, for Labour.
Chris Philp will be delighted that Truss's interview rounds are getting all the attention, as he was dreadful on R4 this morning.
For 15 minutes, basically he just repeatedly said "Putin" in response to every question about who's to blame for the current turmoil. I'm not sure that blaming Putin for Kwarteng's 'budget' and its consequences is necessarily a winner.
Chris Philip is a product of a grammar school and the university of Oxford, is a there a more ghastly combo?
Naughty. He was great I thought. Constantly set our predicament in a global context including BoJ's actions vs the BoE's. Yes it was always "Putin's energy crisis" but that is I presume straight from CCHQ a la Get Brexit Done.
And he didn't ask Martha Kearney why TF pension funds were f*cking around with LDI.
Here's butter wouldn't melt Insight Investment telling everyone how sensible it all is.
"By investing a portion of assets to help manage liability risks and using remaining assets for growth, LDI aims to offer a much smoother path to improved funding without compromising on target returns."
Pension Fund treasurers are praying that no one notices this part of the whole thing.
There was a middle road not taken - a state led acceptance of reasonable adjustment to a new normal: masks, testing, work from home where possible, etc. that was just abandoned to "do what you think is best". I still wear my mask on public transport and in heavy crowds, but it doesn't matter because you need a certain % of the population to do that for it to work. And that could have easily been kept alive if government wanted to. But they didn't, and now the false equivalence rules...
But did'nt compulsory masking linger on in Scotland and Wales linger on for months after it stopped in England? I seem to recall it made no difference at all, indeed Scotland cases were worse than England.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Worth saying Truss has probably split the UK up....
Charlie Stross @cstross I will be voting for Scottish independence next year.
The ONLY halfway-sound counter-argument last time was "but what about your economy? Isn't staying in the UK fundamentally safer?" Since 2019 the Tories have comprehensively demolished that proposition: it's now safer outside.
The only argument for staying was economic and now well......
Truss will continue to refuse indyref2, only way it may happen is a Starmer government reliant on SNP support
Can Truss stop the SNP resigning and forcing a new Scottish Parliament election where Independence will be the slogan of the SNP and Scottish Greens.
and they will likely get 51% of all votes cast...
So what, makes no difference to the Union unless Sturgeon declares UDI. Which she has ruled out as it would not get international recognition, see Catalonia
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
Would be very interested to hear your findings.
My (equally anecdotal) understanding from young people in my family (cousins, siblings, and their friends) was a big concern for the elder generation in our family (my maternal grandparents are still with us, and my paternal ones managed most of the lockdowns before passing). That may be anomalous though, as my dad and sister lived with my grandmother, and my family is very close and so weekly meals with grandparents became weekly zoom calls. I would say 2/3rds of the under 25s in the family were very strict, the other 3rd masked, tested whenever they went out, but still wanted to go out.
As I said, my sample came almost exclusively from Uni so perhaps that is a factor.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Perhaps Extinction Rebellion has done it ?
Noone's claimed they've done it mind. Which I'd expect a non state actor to do. Also it's generally accepted that only states have the means to detonate such a deep and thick pipeline. Cui bono.
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
I imagine that even if they do fall it might still be difficult to get a mortgage when your only occupation that you can declare is "amateur keyboard warrior -unpaid"
I find it amusing that you're so invested in my work life balance. I've only been on the site for a few minutes today while I have my lunch, and made fewer posts than many others, but you've still got your hard on for me since I was OK with Brexit and rejected your Europhilia.
Its rather cute you keep trying to make things personal like that, I think you secretly enjoy having people to argue with and maybe just get frustrated that you can't match my intellect or arguments so you just turn personal instead, its a bit like a young boy tugging on a girls pigtails because they like them.
@BartholomewRoberts Can I suggest that you set your intellect on the problem of 'build costs' in the event of the collapse you are hoping for in the housing market. Because no one has ever come up with an adequate response to me on this. The only way for build costs to go down is for the cost of materials and skilled labour to go down. But both are subject to huge inflationary pressure. I think that a collapse in the housing market will lead to housebuilding on the current model to be unviable for many, many years. So you seem to be wanting a future where we have all the problems of a collapse in housebuilding, with no new housing being delivered, whilst household formations increase, and we are also subject to significant inward migration.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
Would be very interested to hear your findings.
My (equally anecdotal) understanding from young people in my family (cousins, siblings, and their friends) was a big concern for the elder generation in our family (my maternal grandparents are still with us, and my paternal ones managed most of the lockdowns before passing). That may be anomalous though, as my dad and sister lived with my grandmother, and my family is very close and so weekly meals with grandparents became weekly zoom calls. I would say 2/3rds of the under 25s in the family were very strict, the other 3rd masked, tested whenever they went out, but still wanted to go out.
I've contributed to an (as yet unpublished, although I hear it's near submission) study looking indirectly at Covid concern in relation to other things. Patterning is interesting there as the very young and very old were most concerned, with those in 30-50 less concerned. Should note that this was in terms of ranking issues of concern, so it doesn't necessarily mean absolute levels of concern, but perhaps only that 30-50s had other things that concerned them more than Covid.
ETA: piggybacking on an ONS survey, so representative sampling. But not directly the question of interest.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Naughty x2. Covering your face is a deeply unnormal activity for at least our western liberal democracies. It just is.
Will it all become normalised in time with an increase in mask wearing? Probably. Possibly. But as it is today I can understand it being termed dystopian.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
This is the most likely set of events. However, it holds a mirror up to the Western "Alliance" that few are prepared to look into.
Shashank Joshi @shashj · 1h A point of no return. Largest forcible annexation of European territory since WW2. Commits him to defend it in perpetuity & capture the parts of it he doesn't occupy (lots). Prevents him giving it back to Ukraine as part of a settlement. And increases risk of escalation.
I wonder if Putin will surprise us by signing agreements to 1) incorporate Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia and 2) Recognise the Republics of Kherson and Zaporhizhzhia- has anyone seen the actual text of the announcement by the Kremlin today? It would allow slightly more room for negotiation.
Really frightening, because all she has left in the toolbox is sub Johnsonian posturing, won't relinquish a single inch of Ukr soil, bollocks. Who would have thought that being a silly c--t could have civilization threatening consequences? I am sooo done with the Conservative party, because anyone involved in facilitating this is responsible for great evil, and it is past the stage where one can think well, if they elect someone a bit more serious and sort themselves out during a period in opposition...
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or also because they don't trust Europe not to cave to Russia in the Winter and want to cut off that exit. Which would be intolerable.
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
Do you believe a house price crash was the deliberate policy of Truss and Kwarteng, or is it a surprise to them?
If it’s a deliberate policy, they’ve been lying to people because they never admitted this. If it was unintended, then you must agree that they’re incompetent.
My guess would be neither.
I would think its not something they deliberately wanted to engineer for its own sake, but they would have known its a possible consequence of their actions and they'd be OK with that. Which would be a huge improvement if so on the past thirty years of "prices must never fall" orthodoxy if so.
That's neither lying, nor incompetent. There are always byproducts or consequences or opportunity costs for any decision made and there's no reason to trumpet them or to avoid them.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
In this paper, we looked at how people responded to the different restrictions under the tier system, so this was late October 2020.
“Meeting up with others from another household was associated with region (although no individual region reached our threshold for statistical significance), younger age, living in a less deprived area, and living alone (see Supplementary materials). People identifying as Black, Asian, Mixed, or Other ethnicities were less likely to meet others from another household (compared with White British).”
If Truss cannot restore confidence with the markets very soon, surely she will have to be forced out of number 10? There is no other credible emergency replacement than Teresa May, in my opinion. She actually won a General Election. As did Boris - but I can't see his return as a unity candidate in a coronation.
I think the chance of a Johnson return is close to zero but have refrained from laying him due to the likely time to settlement given the current disincentive to tie up money.
I know things are bad but appointing a porn star as PM seems a bit extreme!
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
I imagine that even if they do fall it might still be difficult to get a mortgage when your only occupation that you can declare is "amateur keyboard warrior -unpaid"
I find it amusing that you're so invested in my work life balance. I've only been on the site for a few minutes today while I have my lunch, and made fewer posts than many others, but you've still got your hard on for me since I was OK with Brexit and rejected your Europhilia.
Its rather cute you keep trying to make things personal like that, I think you secretly enjoy having people to argue with and maybe just get frustrated that you can't match my intellect or arguments so you just turn personal instead, its a bit like a young boy tugging on a girls pigtails because they like them.
@BartholomewRoberts Can I suggest that you set your intellect on the problem of 'build costs' in the event of the collapse you are hoping for in the housing market. Because no one has ever come up with an adequate response to me on this. The only way for build costs to go down is for the cost of materials and skilled labour to go down. But both are subject to huge inflationary pressure. I think that a collapse in the housing market will lead to housebuilding on the current model to be unviable for many, many years. So you seem to be wanting a future where we have all the problems of a collapse in housebuilding, with no new housing being delivered, whilst household formations increase, and we are also subject to significant inward migration.
Build costs are a fraction of what you quote though.
What you quote seems to be by any independent reporting the all-in cost of a self-built individual home, to personal development standards, without any economies of scale, and incorporating legal costs etc and the cost of land too.
Labour and materials alone are a fraction of that, and can be subject to significant economies of scale.
Its the difference between flatpack furniture costs and custom made oak furniture costs, they're worlds apart.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or also because they don't trust Europe not to cave to Russia in the Winter and want to cut off that exit. Which would be intolerable.
It IS nonsense. It makes no sense. Whereas it makes perfect sense in every way for Russia to do it.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Naughty x2. Covering your face is a deeply unnormal activity for at least our western liberal democracies. It just is.
Will it all become normalised in time with an increase in mask wearing? Probably. Possibly. But as it is today I can understand it being termed dystopian.
But circumstances have changed. It wouldn't have taken a lot to make masking a new normal, and I don't think it need be seen as so negative when considering the viral pandemic. It is surely less dystopian than the lock downs and queues outside the shops counting people in.
All that was needed was, as suggested above, stickers similar to the "please remember to wash your hands" at toilets alongside public figures acting as role models. No fines or penalties, just a campaign that maybe this is a small change in the grand scheme of things, that other countries have also done for similar reasons. Instead "freedom day".
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Perhaps Extinction Rebellion has done it ?
Noone's claimed they've done it mind. Which I'd expect a non state actor to do. Also it's generally accepted that only states have the means to detonate such a deep and thick pipeline. Cui bono.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
Would be very interested to hear your findings.
My (equally anecdotal) understanding from young people in my family (cousins, siblings, and their friends) was a big concern for the elder generation in our family (my maternal grandparents are still with us, and my paternal ones managed most of the lockdowns before passing). That may be anomalous though, as my dad and sister lived with my grandmother, and my family is very close and so weekly meals with grandparents became weekly zoom calls. I would say 2/3rds of the under 25s in the family were very strict, the other 3rd masked, tested whenever they went out, but still wanted to go out.
I've contributed to an (as yet unpublished, although I hear it's near submission) study looking indirectly at Covid concern in relation to other things. Patterning is interesting there as the very young and very old were most concerned, with those in 30-50 less concerned. Should note that this was in terms of ranking issues of concern, so it doesn't necessarily mean absolute levels of concern, but perhaps only that 30-50s had other things that concerned them more than Covid.
That matches my anecdotal observations.
I'd say 30-50 year olds best understood the overall and age-related risks and felt less personally threatened. They were right. The oldies were more concerned for obvious reasons. The youngsters (by which I mean 15 - 20 year olds) tended to - kind-of - lazily and confirmedly don the masks and observe other stuff etc with a shrug and didn't understand the moans and objections of their parents to something that they didn't see as a big deal.
The views of the young are concerning in my opinion. Doesn't bode well.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
Would be very interested to hear your findings.
My (equally anecdotal) understanding from young people in my family (cousins, siblings, and their friends) was a big concern for the elder generation in our family (my maternal grandparents are still with us, and my paternal ones managed most of the lockdowns before passing). That may be anomalous though, as my dad and sister lived with my grandmother, and my family is very close and so weekly meals with grandparents became weekly zoom calls. I would say 2/3rds of the under 25s in the family were very strict, the other 3rd masked, tested whenever they went out, but still wanted to go out.
I've contributed to an (as yet unpublished, although I hear it's near submission) study looking indirectly at Covid concern in relation to other things. Patterning is interesting there as the very young and very old were most concerned, with those in 30-50 less concerned. Should note that this was in terms of ranking issues of concern, so it doesn't necessarily mean absolute levels of concern, but perhaps only that 30-50s had other things that concerned them more than Covid.
ETA: piggybacking on an ONS survey, so representative sampling. But not directly the question of interest.
I mean, there is a way that makes sense because the very young (under 25s) are not typically in work, doing the household shop, etc. so it is something for them to worry about. But also young people worry about their parents and grandparents in a very big way that I think some adults underestimate, and I wonder if that is a significant player too.
I would be very interested in that research once published.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
In this paper, we looked at how people responded to the different restrictions under the tier system, so this was late October 2020.
“Meeting up with others from another household was associated with region (although no individual region reached our threshold for statistical significance), younger age, living in a less deprived area, and living alone (see Supplementary materials). People identifying as Black, Asian, Mixed, or Other ethnicities were less likely to meet others from another household (compared with White British).”
Very interesting thanks when I've got some time I will read the paper. Of course looking forward to one further on in the pandemic.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
This is the most likely set of events. However, it holds a mirror up to the Western "Alliance" that few are prepared to look into.
A few things recently have done that. The 'special relationship' mask was already looking somewhat askew.
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
I imagine that even if they do fall it might still be difficult to get a mortgage when your only occupation that you can declare is "amateur keyboard warrior -unpaid"
I find it amusing that you're so invested in my work life balance. I've only been on the site for a few minutes today while I have my lunch, and made fewer posts than many others, but you've still got your hard on for me since I was OK with Brexit and rejected your Europhilia.
Its rather cute you keep trying to make things personal like that, I think you secretly enjoy having people to argue with and maybe just get frustrated that you can't match my intellect or arguments so you just turn personal instead, its a bit like a young boy tugging on a girls pigtails because they like them.
@BartholomewRoberts Can I suggest that you set your intellect on the problem of 'build costs' in the event of the collapse you are hoping for in the housing market. Because no one has ever come up with an adequate response to me on this. The only way for build costs to go down is for the cost of materials and skilled labour to go down. But both are subject to huge inflationary pressure. I think that a collapse in the housing market will lead to housebuilding on the current model to be unviable for many, many years. So you seem to be wanting a future where we have all the problems of a collapse in housebuilding, with no new housing being delivered, whilst household formations increase, and we are also subject to significant inward migration.
Build costs are a fraction of what you quote though.
What you quote seems to be by any independent reporting the all-in cost of a self-built individual home, to personal development standards, without any economies of scale, and incorporating legal costs etc and the cost of land too.
Labour and materials alone are a fraction of that, and can be subject to significant economies of scale.
Its the difference between flatpack furniture costs and custom made oak furniture costs, they're worlds apart.
It's true that there is the possibility of significant economies of scale in building on large building sites.
But if you compare us to sites anywhere else in Europe we don't make much use of them...
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or it could be Russia behaving like the two drivers playing chicken. One (Russia) throws the steering wheel out the window to show how they will not give in forcing the other to take avoiding action.
In this case the pipeline is the steering wheel and they are making it clear that they don’t care about gas, revenue etc etc because they are staying the course so the west better blink.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
In this paper, we looked at how people responded to the different restrictions under the tier system, so this was late October 2020.
“Meeting up with others from another household was associated with region (although no individual region reached our threshold for statistical significance), younger age, living in a less deprived area, and living alone (see Supplementary materials). People identifying as Black, Asian, Mixed, or Other ethnicities were less likely to meet others from another household (compared with White British).”
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Not always. Some things are categorical imperatives. We are not China.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
This is the most likely set of events. However, it holds a mirror up to the Western "Alliance" that few are prepared to look into.
The CDU/CSU Christian Democratic Union suffered defeat in the Bundestag with a proposal to increase military support for Ukraine. In a roll-call vote, 179 MPs voted in favour of the proposal, 476 were against and one abstained, the German public broadcaster ARD reported.
Eliminating any chance of a gas pipeline reduces incentive for more voting along those lines in the Bundestag.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
Would be very interested to hear your findings.
My (equally anecdotal) understanding from young people in my family (cousins, siblings, and their friends) was a big concern for the elder generation in our family (my maternal grandparents are still with us, and my paternal ones managed most of the lockdowns before passing). That may be anomalous though, as my dad and sister lived with my grandmother, and my family is very close and so weekly meals with grandparents became weekly zoom calls. I would say 2/3rds of the under 25s in the family were very strict, the other 3rd masked, tested whenever they went out, but still wanted to go out.
I've contributed to an (as yet unpublished, although I hear it's near submission) study looking indirectly at Covid concern in relation to other things. Patterning is interesting there as the very young and very old were most concerned, with those in 30-50 less concerned. Should note that this was in terms of ranking issues of concern, so it doesn't necessarily mean absolute levels of concern, but perhaps only that 30-50s had other things that concerned them more than Covid.
That matches my anecdotal observations.
I'd say 30-50 year olds best understood the overall and age-related risks and felt less personally threatened. They were right. The oldies were more concerned for obvious reasons. The youngsters (by which I mean 15 - 20 year olds) tended to - kind-of - lazily and confirmedly don the masks and observe other stuff etc with a shrug and didn't understand the moans and objections of their parents to something that they didn't see as a big deal.
The views of the young are concerning in my opinion. Doesn't bode well.
That feels counterintuitive in my mind. The young took a precautionary approach, treating an unknown threat with the seriousness it deserved. That is a pretty mature position. Whereas I would argue the 30-50 year old "meh" reaction is more concerning - a bit of a "I should be fine, so why do I need to worry" position that doesn't think of people in wider society.
The biggest fear of my sister (who was 19 when lockdown started) was going to work (she worked in a nursery and worked all through covid) and brining the virus home and killing our nan. Not that she would get ill and feel bad for a week or so, but real concern for the at risk group. That is what I think the younger people understood better than some middle aged folk.
If Truss cannot restore confidence with the markets very soon, surely she will have to be forced out of number 10? There is no other credible emergency replacement than Teresa May, in my opinion. She actually won a General Election. As did Boris - but I can't see his return as a unity candidate in a coronation.
I agree it’s a plausible scenario and have done the same. I think it’s probably unlikely, but worth a punt.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or also because they don't trust Europe not to cave to Russia in the Winter and want to cut off that exit. Which would be intolerable.
It IS nonsense. It makes no sense. Whereas it makes perfect sense in every way for Russia to do it.
It may not be true, and I have not even looked at any evidence to endorse or disprove it, but 'nonsense' that 'makes no sense' it aint. They threatened publicly to do it ffs.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or also because they don't trust Europe not to cave to Russia in the Winter and want to cut off that exit. Which would be intolerable.
It IS nonsense. It makes no sense. Whereas it makes perfect sense in every way for Russia to do it.
Utter bollocks
America has plenty of motivation:
1. Rattle Putin 2. Bind Germany and other European states closer to NATO 3. Ensure Germany never goes back to energy reliance on Russia 4. Blame Russia for the bantz 5. Ensure Russian cannot earn money from that pipe 6. Offer a warning over nukes: look Vlad we can do THIS
America also has the means, and money
Against that is the argument: it would look very bad if America did this and got caught. But would it? NATO is committed to Ukraine. No one will break ranks. Even if the USA "got caught" no one would admit it in public
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
I imagine that even if they do fall it might still be difficult to get a mortgage when your only occupation that you can declare is "amateur keyboard warrior -unpaid"
I find it amusing that you're so invested in my work life balance. I've only been on the site for a few minutes today while I have my lunch, and made fewer posts than many others, but you've still got your hard on for me since I was OK with Brexit and rejected your Europhilia.
Its rather cute you keep trying to make things personal like that, I think you secretly enjoy having people to argue with and maybe just get frustrated that you can't match my intellect or arguments so you just turn personal instead, its a bit like a young boy tugging on a girls pigtails because they like them.
@BartholomewRoberts Can I suggest that you set your intellect on the problem of 'build costs' in the event of the collapse you are hoping for in the housing market. Because no one has ever come up with an adequate response to me on this. The only way for build costs to go down is for the cost of materials and skilled labour to go down. But both are subject to huge inflationary pressure. I think that a collapse in the housing market will lead to housebuilding on the current model to be unviable for many, many years. So you seem to be wanting a future where we have all the problems of a collapse in housebuilding, with no new housing being delivered, whilst household formations increase, and we are also subject to significant inward migration.
Build costs are a fraction of what you quote though.
What you quote seems to be by any independent reporting the all-in cost of a self-built individual home, to personal development standards, without any economies of scale, and incorporating legal costs etc and the cost of land too.
Labour and materials alone are a fraction of that, and can be subject to significant economies of scale.
Its the difference between flatpack furniture costs and custom made oak furniture costs, they're worlds apart.
It's true that there is the possibility of significant economies of scale in building on large building sites.
But if you compare us to sites anywhere else in Europe we don't make much use of them...
Not just in building on large building sites, but even self-built too can be a lot cheaper. So called 'flat pack homes' are quite ubiquitous in much of the world and can be done considerably cheaper too.
If house prices fall, then people will seek to get more competitive in their costs. If the barriers to self-building were to be removed, then maybe flat pack style homes could become more common in this country as they are elsewhere. Ikea furniture is reasonably popular afterall.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or it could be Russia behaving like the two drivers playing chicken. One (Russia) throws the steering wheel out the window to show how they will not give in forcing the other to take avoiding action.
In this case the pipeline is the steering wheel and they are making it clear that they don’t care about gas, revenue etc etc because they are staying the course so the west better blink.
Or, theory I read somewhere, russia is making the point Look: we have the technical expertise to do this to gas pipes, we can also do it to your undersea internet cables, and where will you be then? Communicating £/$ rates by carrier pigeon.
German finance minister Lindner, presenting his government's new gas price cap to relieve consumers: "We are expressly not following Great Britain's example down the path of an expansionary fiscal policy" https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1575460861292023812
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Not always. Some things are categorical imperatives. We are not China.
I'm not saying "mask up or get a fine". As mentioned above - treat it like handwashing after the loo, stickers, posters, etc as well as, yes, politicians and public figures setting a good example by still masking up.
Individual freedom is important, but some action needs enough people to get involved. We understand that when it comes to mandatory vaccination, why would it be so terrible to have a new social norm of wearing masks on public transport / enclosed spaces with lots of people / large gatherings?
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or also because they don't trust Europe not to cave to Russia in the Winter and want to cut off that exit. Which would be intolerable.
It IS nonsense. It makes no sense. Whereas it makes perfect sense in every way for Russia to do it.
It may not be true, and I have not even looked at any evidence to endorse or disprove it, but 'nonsense' that 'makes no sense' it aint. They threatened publicly to do it ffs.
And Radek Sikorski MEP (who I vaguely know) publicly tweeted his thanks to the USA
Sikorski is a little bit maverick, but he is also hugely intelligent
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Not always. Some things are categorical imperatives. We are not China.
I'm not saying "mask up or get a fine". As mentioned above - treat it like handwashing after the loo, stickers, posters, etc as well as, yes, politicians and public figures setting a good example by still masking up.
Individual freedom is important, but some action needs enough people to get involved. We understand that when it comes to mandatory vaccination, why would it be so terrible to have a new social norm of wearing masks on public transport / enclosed spaces with lots of people / large gatherings?
It's not a world I want to live in. I can put it no clearer than that.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
Would be very interested to hear your findings.
In 2020 our first years had many, many parties on campus. Few repercussions.
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
Do you believe a house price crash was the deliberate policy of Truss and Kwarteng, or is it a surprise to them?
If it’s a deliberate policy, they’ve been lying to people because they never admitted this. If it was unintended, then you must agree that they’re incompetent.
My guess would be neither.
I would think its not something they deliberately wanted to engineer for its own sake, but they would have known its a possible consequence of their actions and they'd be OK with that. Which would be a huge improvement if so on the past thirty years of "prices must never fall" orthodoxy if so.
That's neither lying, nor incompetent. There are always byproducts or consequences or opportunity costs for any decision made and there's no reason to trumpet them or to avoid them.
When a “byproduct” is of a very significant nature, as a substantial house price fall is, then you should definitely acknowledge them, or seek to avoid them. If Liz and Kwasi thought this was a possible consequence but not worth mentioning or trying to avoid, then they are grossly incompetent.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or also because they don't trust Europe not to cave to Russia in the Winter and want to cut off that exit. Which would be intolerable.
It IS nonsense. It makes no sense. Whereas it makes perfect sense in every way for Russia to do it.
It may not be true, and I have not even looked at any evidence to endorse or disprove it, but 'nonsense' that 'makes no sense' it aint. They threatened publicly to do it ffs.
Can you point me to where the US threatened to blow up pipelines in the Baltic?
How does US state terrorism in Western Europe keep Europe onside?
How is blowing up the infrastructure in the waters of allied nations something that is in the interests of the US?
Is the US also going to blow up all the other gas pipelines from Russia to Europe?
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Not always. Some things are categorical imperatives. We are not China.
I'm not saying "mask up or get a fine". As mentioned above - treat it like handwashing after the loo, stickers, posters, etc as well as, yes, politicians and public figures setting a good example by still masking up.
Individual freedom is important, but some action needs enough people to get involved. We understand that when it comes to mandatory vaccination, why would it be so terrible to have a new social norm of wearing masks on public transport / enclosed spaces with lots of people / large gatherings?
Because masks are horrible, stupid, dehumanising things that act as a barrier to the young and old and disabled communicating properly. Children need to see facial expressions to learn to communicate properly, and the old and disabled look at facial expressions and lip-read more which is blocked by masks.
We've done vaccines, that's enough. Masks are going far too far.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
This is the most likely set of events. However, it holds a mirror up to the Western "Alliance" that few are prepared to look into.
The CDU/CSU Christian Democratic Union suffered defeat in the Bundestag with a proposal to increase military support for Ukraine. In a roll-call vote, 179 MPs voted in favour of the proposal, 476 were against and one abstained, the German public broadcaster ARD reported.
Eliminating any chance of a gas pipeline reduces incentive for more voting along those lines in the Bundestag.
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
Do you believe a house price crash was the deliberate policy of Truss and Kwarteng, or is it a surprise to them?
If it’s a deliberate policy, they’ve been lying to people because they never admitted this. If it was unintended, then you must agree that they’re incompetent.
My guess would be neither.
I would think its not something they deliberately wanted to engineer for its own sake, but they would have known its a possible consequence of their actions and they'd be OK with that. Which would be a huge improvement if so on the past thirty years of "prices must never fall" orthodoxy if so.
That's neither lying, nor incompetent. There are always byproducts or consequences or opportunity costs for any decision made and there's no reason to trumpet them or to avoid them.
When a “byproduct” is of a very significant nature, as a substantial house price fall is, then you should definitely acknowledge them, or seek to avoid them. If Liz and Kwasi thought this was a possible consequence but not worth mentioning or trying to avoid, then they are grossly incompetent.
No, they're not.
Interest rates needing to go up was mentioned and discussed during the leadership campaign. We even had this conversation at the time.
Trying to prevent prices going down would sound better if the same hysteria and action was taken to prevent them going up. Where was the tackling of house price inflation in the past quarter of a century?
What goes up must come down. Prices reaching their appropriate levels rather than being overly inflated due to a one way ratchet is not incompetent, its long overdue.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Naughty x2. Covering your face is a deeply unnormal activity for at least our western liberal democracies. It just is.
Will it all become normalised in time with an increase in mask wearing? Probably. Possibly. But as it is today I can understand it being termed dystopian.
A hundred years ago, it was considered unthinkable in the West for an adult to go out without a hat or other head covering (head scarves for working-class women). Even at the time of Kennedy’s election as President, plenty were still shocked at how we went out and about without a hat. He was nicknamed Hatless Jack. I suspect many back then would’ve considered it dystopian to have a future without hat wearing.
Today, hat wearing is much less common. A man wearing a hat is often thought to be a bit of a poseur, maybe a hipster, or one of those people who wears a flat cap to pretend they’re working class when they’re actually an office manager. Women wearing head scarves for religious reasons is actively abhorred by many.
Societies change. No one really knows why hat wearing fell out of style. If there’s a bit more mask wearing in certain contexts and we get a significant reduction in respiratory diseases (old or new ones), I’m not seeing a problem personally.
“Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers 🇷🇺 during November-February. 🇧🇾 undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse”
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Not always. Some things are categorical imperatives. We are not China.
I'm not saying "mask up or get a fine". As mentioned above - treat it like handwashing after the loo, stickers, posters, etc as well as, yes, politicians and public figures setting a good example by still masking up.
Individual freedom is important, but some action needs enough people to get involved. We understand that when it comes to mandatory vaccination, why would it be so terrible to have a new social norm of wearing masks on public transport / enclosed spaces with lots of people / large gatherings?
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or also because they don't trust Europe not to cave to Russia in the Winter and want to cut off that exit. Which would be intolerable.
It IS nonsense. It makes no sense. Whereas it makes perfect sense in every way for Russia to do it.
It may not be true, and I have not even looked at any evidence to endorse or disprove it, but 'nonsense' that 'makes no sense' it aint. They threatened publicly to do it ffs.
Can you point me to where the US threatened to blow up pipelines in the Baltic?
How does US state terrorism in Western Europe keep Europe onside?
How is blowing up the infrastructure in the waters of allied nations something that is in the interests of the US?
Is the US also going to blow up all the other gas pipelines from Russia to Europe?
How does it help the Democrats in the midterms?
You seem to think something cannot be true, and cannot be happening, simply because you dislike the implications
We saw similar reactions to Brexit and early Covid
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or also because they don't trust Europe not to cave to Russia in the Winter and want to cut off that exit. Which would be intolerable.
It IS nonsense. It makes no sense. Whereas it makes perfect sense in every way for Russia to do it.
It may not be true, and I have not even looked at any evidence to endorse or disprove it, but 'nonsense' that 'makes no sense' it aint. They threatened publicly to do it ffs.
Can you point me to where the US threatened to blow up pipelines in the Baltic?
How does US state terrorism in Western Europe keep Europe onside?
How is blowing up the infrastructure in the waters of allied nations something that is in the interests of the US?
Is the US also going to blow up all the other gas pipelines from Russia to Europe?
How does it help the Democrats in the midterms?
You seem to think something cannot be true, and cannot be happening, simply because you dislike the implications
We saw similar reactions to Brexit and early Covid
Well, of course it could be true. It's just extremely unlikely. Your own reactions to practically everything show that you have a pretty tenuous connection to reality most of the time.
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
Do you believe a house price crash was the deliberate policy of Truss and Kwarteng, or is it a surprise to them?
If it’s a deliberate policy, they’ve been lying to people because they never admitted this. If it was unintended, then you must agree that they’re incompetent.
My guess would be neither.
I would think its not something they deliberately wanted to engineer for its own sake, but they would have known its a possible consequence of their actions and they'd be OK with that. Which would be a huge improvement if so on the past thirty years of "prices must never fall" orthodoxy if so.
That's neither lying, nor incompetent. There are always byproducts or consequences or opportunity costs for any decision made and there's no reason to trumpet them or to avoid them.
When a “byproduct” is of a very significant nature, as a substantial house price fall is, then you should definitely acknowledge them, or seek to avoid them. If Liz and Kwasi thought this was a possible consequence but not worth mentioning or trying to avoid, then they are grossly incompetent.
No, they're not.
Interest rates needing to go up was mentioned and discussed during the leadership campaign. We even had this conversation at the time.
Trying to prevent prices going down would sound better if the same hysteria and action was taken to prevent them going up. Where was the tackling of house price inflation in the past quarter of a century?
What goes up must come down. Prices reaching their appropriate levels rather than being overly inflated due to a one way ratchet is not incompetent, its long overdue.
Provide me a quote from Truss in the leadership campaign saying house prices will fall substantially.
3) Truss wanted to answer every question about the energy package for which she has derived almost no political credit. And that's because she changed the conversation by having the tax cuts along side it. It's too late to change it back.
Perceived (and indeed actual) incoherence is her problem everywhere right now. With voters on relationship between energy package, tax cuts, inflation and mortgage rates and with the markets which, do not buy the idea of fiscal policy and monetary policy working so at odds.
For her own political sake (and for our economic one) Truss needs better answers to this incoherence and these questions and quickly. And she’ll have to do it whilst not being able to do much about problem (1) something she herself as acknowledged and attempted to make an asset.
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
I imagine that even if they do fall it might still be difficult to get a mortgage when your only occupation that you can declare is "amateur keyboard warrior -unpaid"
I find it amusing that you're so invested in my work life balance. I've only been on the site for a few minutes today while I have my lunch, and made fewer posts than many others, but you've still got your hard on for me since I was OK with Brexit and rejected your Europhilia.
Its rather cute you keep trying to make things personal like that, I think you secretly enjoy having people to argue with and maybe just get frustrated that you can't match my intellect or arguments so you just turn personal instead, its a bit like a young boy tugging on a girls pigtails because they like them.
@BartholomewRoberts Can I suggest that you set your intellect on the problem of 'build costs' in the event of the collapse you are hoping for in the housing market. Because no one has ever come up with an adequate response to me on this. The only way for build costs to go down is for the cost of materials and skilled labour to go down. But both are subject to huge inflationary pressure. I think that a collapse in the housing market will lead to housebuilding on the current model to be unviable for many, many years. So you seem to be wanting a future where we have all the problems of a collapse in housebuilding, with no new housing being delivered, whilst household formations increase, and we are also subject to significant inward migration.
Build costs are a fraction of what you quote though.
What you quote seems to be by any independent reporting the all-in cost of a self-built individual home, to personal development standards, without any economies of scale, and incorporating legal costs etc and the cost of land too.
Labour and materials alone are a fraction of that, and can be subject to significant economies of scale.
Its the difference between flatpack furniture costs and custom made oak furniture costs, they're worlds apart.
I am quoting the official figures which are used by chartered surveyors and widely accepted in the industry. They are used in development appraisals which are accepted by planning authorities and the subject of independent reviews when housebuilders put forward major development proposals (ie ones where there are significant economies of scale) These are around the £1.5k - £2k/sqm mark in most parts of England for volume housebuilding, much more for flats. It may be that in Teesside certain builders can get it down to £1000 sqm, but this is most probably due to an abundance of cheap labour (a reflection of comparatively very low living costs) and very basic materials.
On top of this, you have all the costs associated with the service connections, infrastructure, planning costs, sales, developer profit etc.... and of course the land. All this is cheaper in depopulated and poorer regions in the north of the country than in the crowded south.
You are relying on a 'hunch' that this is all nonsense, but without providing any evidence of your own to back this assertion up.
If we have a recession, the evidence is that build prices don't go down that much. If house prices fall dramatically, nothing will get built until confidence returns to the market and end prices rise. Or alternatively, the whole country gets dragged down to point where everything is as cheap as it is now in Teesside, which isn't most peoples idea of the right way forward.
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Or also because they don't trust Europe not to cave to Russia in the Winter and want to cut off that exit. Which would be intolerable.
It IS nonsense. It makes no sense. Whereas it makes perfect sense in every way for Russia to do it.
It may not be true, and I have not even looked at any evidence to endorse or disprove it, but 'nonsense' that 'makes no sense' it aint. They threatened publicly to do it ffs.
Can you point me to where the US threatened to blow up pipelines in the Baltic?
How does US state terrorism in Western Europe keep Europe onside?
How is blowing up the infrastructure in the waters of allied nations something that is in the interests of the US?
Is the US also going to blow up all the other gas pipelines from Russia to Europe?
How does it help the Democrats in the midterms?
You seem to think something cannot be true, and cannot be happening, simply because you dislike the implications
We saw similar reactions to Brexit and early Covid
Well, of course it could be true. It's just extremely unlikely. Your own reactions to practically everything show that you have a pretty tenuous connection to reality most of the time.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
if the young were more worried about covid than the middle aged thats a devsatating indictment of our education system....in reality i think the young are generally left wing and the left favoured lockdowns so the young followed the herd
The 1st Lockdown - stay at home, everything shut etc - wasn't a Left v Right thing. It was an emergency measure taken to prevent a public health catastrophe at a time when the virus was new and starting to let rip and a vaccine was still a way off. There were very few dissenters and those who did were almost exclusively nutcases or attention seekers. But this changed with time and I think it's right to say there was generally more support on the Left for restrictions of some sort as the virus ebbed and flowed its way through the 18 months of the pandemic.
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
So I only just had it this summer after 3 jabs - the illness itself was a bad flu, I was bedbound for a few days with a high temp, and didn't actually have much in the way of bad lung stuff.
Problem I have now is, a few months after that, I'm still exhausted, I'm having headaches and brainfog, I'm getting muscle aches and chest pain all the time. I used to walk home most days from the office, about 4.5 miles in about an hour depending on weather and if I popped into the shops. I can't do half of that atm without breaking into flopsweats and wheezing.
Even if you think it's fine for people to get sick and die - the long term impact of this won't go away. My doc is assuming it's long covid, but I'm going to go for tests, impacting an already crippled healthcare system. I can't work as efficiently as I have been, my quality of life has dramatically reduced - hell I'm finding doing 30 mins - 1 hour of housework hard. And I'm in my early 30s. We have no idea how long these symptoms will last, or if we can treat them. That's a strain on our healthcare system, a strain on our labour productivity, a strain on society.
And if we keep letting wave after wave hit the populace, the chance people have of getting ill and staying ill gets closer to 1. A nation enfeebled by this is a pretty significant threat, in my view.
I'm sorry you're not feeling good, and hope you're feeling better soon.
Please take what follows as honest discord and not a belittlement of how you're feeling, but with all respect I'm sorry to say that shit happens, viruses exist, and we need to get used to it.
If the healthcare system is crippled, then people will die. If people die, then they come off waiting lists and stop needing pensions, or care, or ... eventually a new equilibrium is found.
Its horrible, and its unpleasant, but its also true. What is the alternative? How do we prevent a rampant virus from spreading? The virus can not be contained or controlled, its hubris to suggest it can be, unless we lockdown for about six months to remove and permanently seal up the borders, permanently prevent international trade and permanently prevent international travel.
Realistically, post-vaccines is as good as it gets.
We can reduce the spread of viruses and other pathogens, and routinely do so. We eradicated smallpox and rinderpest, and are making good progress against polio. We contained SARS and MERS. We work every year to minimise the impact of flu, through vaccinations, through behaviour and through reducing infection in animal populations. We work every year to minimise the impact of HIV/AIDS, through behaviour, testing and contact tracing.
Likewise, there is plenty we can do to reduce COVID-19 cases: good air filtration in buildings, encouraging those with symptoms to not go into work and to wear masks, vaccination campaigns. These methods are effective and they are cost effective. But libertarians like to pretend we’re impotent because they are so allergic* to any form of collective action. Bart’s “let them die in the streets” is perhaps at the extreme end of that…
You're right we do vaccinate against the flu. And I'm all for vaccines for Covid.
I've had 3 vaccines, I doubt I'll have any more but if offered more I would do my bit and get a jab. My grandparents that are still alive have had five vaccines each.
So yes, vaccinated for Covid, like we vaccinate against the flu. Great. But no to masks, or lockdowns, or restrictions or staying at home when you're healthy but a carrier or any other nonsense.
You response seems minimally connected to what I wrote. I didn’t mention a single restriction or lockdowns.
We have public health information campaigns to encourage people to wash their hands after using the toilet. What’s wrong with having public health information campaigns to encourage people to wear a mask and not go into work when they have symptoms of a respiratory infection?
We have sewerage systems to provide clean water (with the occasional outpouring of poo onto beaches under the Conservatives). What’s wrong with having air filtration systems in buildings to provide clean air?
You appear to be ideologically opposed to the mere idea that we can do something about COVID. We have to be impotent to justify your libertarianism, just as others on the right argue that the economy is in such a mess that we are impotent to the markets rather than admit that Truss/Kwarteng got it wrong, just as others on the right argue that there’s nothing we can do to stop Putin, so let’s make Ukraine sue for peace.
Encouraging people to wear a mask is dystopian whereas advising not go into work when you have symptoms of a respiratory infection is common sense. Advising people not to go to work when they have no symptoms yet have bizarrely chosen to take a Covid test (which showed positive) is still an issue I understand. Perhaps Truss could usefully do something about this?
Is it dystopian to encourage people to wear a shirt - cultural norms and societal expectations mean we almost always do wear a shirt, but it is sometimes so warm in my office I'd like to derobe. When conditions change should a different understanding of what is typical, expected or desired also change?
Not always. Some things are categorical imperatives. We are not China.
I'm not saying "mask up or get a fine". As mentioned above - treat it like handwashing after the loo, stickers, posters, etc as well as, yes, politicians and public figures setting a good example by still masking up.
Individual freedom is important, but some action needs enough people to get involved. We understand that when it comes to mandatory vaccination, why would it be so terrible to have a new social norm of wearing masks on public transport / enclosed spaces with lots of people / large gatherings?
Is there mandatory vaccination? Aren't they all voluntary (even the BCGs for children)?
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
Do you believe a house price crash was the deliberate policy of Truss and Kwarteng, or is it a surprise to them?
If it’s a deliberate policy, they’ve been lying to people because they never admitted this. If it was unintended, then you must agree that they’re incompetent.
My guess would be neither.
I would think its not something they deliberately wanted to engineer for its own sake, but they would have known its a possible consequence of their actions and they'd be OK with that. Which would be a huge improvement if so on the past thirty years of "prices must never fall" orthodoxy if so.
That's neither lying, nor incompetent. There are always byproducts or consequences or opportunity costs for any decision made and there's no reason to trumpet them or to avoid them.
When a “byproduct” is of a very significant nature, as a substantial house price fall is, then you should definitely acknowledge them, or seek to avoid them. If Liz and Kwasi thought this was a possible consequence but not worth mentioning or trying to avoid, then they are grossly incompetent.
No, they're not.
Interest rates needing to go up was mentioned and discussed during the leadership campaign. We even had this conversation at the time.
Trying to prevent prices going down would sound better if the same hysteria and action was taken to prevent them going up. Where was the tackling of house price inflation in the past quarter of a century?
What goes up must come down. Prices reaching their appropriate levels rather than being overly inflated due to a one way ratchet is not incompetent, its long overdue.
Provide me a quote from Truss in the leadership campaign saying house prices will fall substantially.
First you provide me a quote by any campaign ever saying that house prices would have rampant and uncontrolled inflation to unaffordable levels.
You seem to be of the attitude that rampant inflation is the natural order of things and not a problem? Or that ending or reversing the rampant inflation of the past is what is problematic instead?
BREAKING: Hospital admissions of covid positive patients in England up 48% in a week.
Fourth Covid wave of 2022 now in full effect
At this point the only answer is dark, sardonic laughter, and a stiff scotch before noon
At this point the only answer is to stop worrying about Covid.
I'm not joking when I say if people get sick and die, they get sick and die. We've spent years locked down, we've rolled out is four or five rounds of vaccines now. Seriously, get over it already.
We haven't "spent years locked down".
Yes we have. They lasted for a period of years and at any time during that period we didn't know when the next one was going to occur.
Please don't let's go down the old, rich blokes in charming houses wondering what the big fuss about lockdown route is again.
Yes i imagine lockdown in a nice house in Hampstead was quite pleasant..a walk on the heath everyday whilst tutting at the covidiots sitting on park benches
Indeed.
But hasn't the opposite been shown? That those most in favour of lockdowns - the young, the precarious and the like - also had the worst experience of lockdown. They just understood that the sacrifice was necessary for society to keep functioning. Whereas a lot of the people moaning the most, and demanding people go into the office asap, are rich old guys who do have mansions, and in many cases, have worked from home as journalists for years...
I don't know I haven't read the breakdowns. I would be amazed (but then PB knowledge is amazing) if the young were in favour of lockdowns when as far as I can tell they almost continuously ignored them throughout the years they were in operation. Or is it one of those survey answer questions to "would you like world peace" or "should there be higher taxes".
I’d have to dig deeper on the question, but we know some predictors of poor adherence to guidelines or regulations across the pandemic. Being young and male were predictive of lower adherence. But also we saw those who struggled with following restrictions were (unsurprisingly) less likely to follow them, so financial distress and having dependent children at home were both predictive of poor adherence.
Meanwhile, the young were, if I remember correctly, also more worried about COVID-19 on average than the middle aged. That may not be the same youngsters who were following regulations less. I’d guess that there was a greater dichotomy: some ignoring the rules, others very worried. We’re working on a paper looking at predictors of worry across the pandemic. Remind me to report back in a few months…
Super interesting yes please do.
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
Would be very interested to hear your findings.
In 2020 our first years had many, many parties on campus. Few repercussions.
Interesting - had you heard of some unis being quite strict (or attempting to be). But your point - party, party, party - fits with my anecdotal experience from them.
Thats the US. We may catch it, yes. The global economy is on the verge of collapsing
22.5% drop? That seems to be volume, not prices.
Hopefully we do get a 50% or so drop in house prices in the UK. Would love to see house prices back at a 3x multiple in the North and a 4x multiple in London, just as it used to be.
Sometimes a bit of pain and disruption is needed to fix the fundamentals. We may need to go through that now.
50% drop in house prices = GFC mark 2, not just a bit of pain and disruption.
Oh well.
Controlled burn-backs are better at preventing rampaging forest fires, but if you don't have them and allow the undergrowth never to be removed then the problems build up until a rampaging forest fire becomes necessary and unpreventable. We're possibly at that point now.
Had we had brief periods of negative equity repeatedly in the past thirty years, then we'd now be in a position where prices were reasonable, as they'd bounced up and down. Unfortunately we've taken a toxic attitude that prices must never fall and they've ratchetted higher and higher to the point it will take a 50% fall to get back to reasonable levels.
Smaller falls more often would have been better, than a major fall at once.
I imagine that even if they do fall it might still be difficult to get a mortgage when your only occupation that you can declare is "amateur keyboard warrior -unpaid"
I find it amusing that you're so invested in my work life balance. I've only been on the site for a few minutes today while I have my lunch, and made fewer posts than many others, but you've still got your hard on for me since I was OK with Brexit and rejected your Europhilia.
Its rather cute you keep trying to make things personal like that, I think you secretly enjoy having people to argue with and maybe just get frustrated that you can't match my intellect or arguments so you just turn personal instead, its a bit like a young boy tugging on a girls pigtails because they like them.
@BartholomewRoberts Can I suggest that you set your intellect on the problem of 'build costs' in the event of the collapse you are hoping for in the housing market. Because no one has ever come up with an adequate response to me on this. The only way for build costs to go down is for the cost of materials and skilled labour to go down. But both are subject to huge inflationary pressure. I think that a collapse in the housing market will lead to housebuilding on the current model to be unviable for many, many years. So you seem to be wanting a future where we have all the problems of a collapse in housebuilding, with no new housing being delivered, whilst household formations increase, and we are also subject to significant inward migration.
Build costs are a fraction of what you quote though.
What you quote seems to be by any independent reporting the all-in cost of a self-built individual home, to personal development standards, without any economies of scale, and incorporating legal costs etc and the cost of land too.
Labour and materials alone are a fraction of that, and can be subject to significant economies of scale.
Its the difference between flatpack furniture costs and custom made oak furniture costs, they're worlds apart.
I am quoting the official figures which are used by chartered surveyors and widely accepted in the industry. They are used in development appraisals which are accepted by planning authorities and the subject of independent reviews when housebuilders put forward major development proposals (ie ones where there are significant economies of scale) These are around the £1.5k - £2k/sqm mark in most parts of England for volume housebuilding, much more for flats. It may be that in Teesside certain builders can get it down to £1000 sqm, but this is most probably due to an abundance of cheap labour (a reflection of comparatively very low living costs) and very basic materials.
On top of this, you have all the costs associated with the service connections, infrastructure, planning costs, sales, developer profit etc.... and of course the land. All this is cheaper in depopulated and poorer regions in the north of the country than in the crowded south.
You are relying on a 'hunch' that this is all nonsense, but without providing any evidence of your own to back this assertion up.
If we have a recession, the evidence is that build prices don't go down that much. If house prices fall dramatically, nothing will get built until confidence returns to the market and end prices rise. Or alternatively, the whole country gets dragged down to point where everything is as cheap as it is now in Teesside, which isn't most peoples idea of the right way forward.
I'm confused why you are so focussed on Teesside. the one house that was mentioned at a particularly low price is that price for multiple reasons - including the fact it's the last house on a fully sold estate...
We need to squash the idea that "suggesting America zapped the pipeline" is some kind of MAGA-hat conspiracy theory
It really is not. It is perfectly plausible, and America has the means and motive. This is not Trumpite nonsense
We just don't know. It could also be Ukraine, Russia, China... or even maverick elements within all four countries
The implications that it did so are unpleasant. It's a physical attack on the European continent, amounting to economical sabotage. Russia or Ukraine doing it are also troubling possibilities, but not in the same way.
Yes, it is disturbing whoever did it
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
This is the most likely set of events. However, it holds a mirror up to the Western "Alliance" that few are prepared to look into.
The CDU/CSU Christian Democratic Union suffered defeat in the Bundestag with a proposal to increase military support for Ukraine. In a roll-call vote, 179 MPs voted in favour of the proposal, 476 were against and one abstained, the German public broadcaster ARD reported.
Eliminating any chance of a gas pipeline reduces incentive for more voting along those lines in the Bundestag.
Or increases it.
I mean that vote was after the pipeline sabotage, so doesn't seem to be working...
Free Lions @WeAreFreeLions Important COVID-19 news for England fans heading to Qatar.
A PCR test taken no more than 48 hours before travelling to Qatar is required, or a Rapid Antigen Test taken within 24 hours. This must be taken at an official testing site.
Comments
@shashj
·
1h
A point of no return. Largest forcible annexation of European territory since WW2. Commits him to defend it in perpetuity & capture the parts of it he doesn't occupy (lots). Prevents him giving it back to Ukraine as part of a settlement. And increases risk of escalation.
https://twitter.com/shashj
My (ANECDOTAL) understanding from every young person I know and have spoken to about it (nephews, neices, sons/daughters of friends) was that there was wholesale attempted circumvention of the rules. This was mainly at universities where I know there were also some pretty hefty compliance measures by the unis eg threatening to chuck them out/report them to the police. It is also a pretty ABC1 kind of demographic so maybe this is a factor.
Would be very interested to hear your findings.
And even if it's all "hysteria", as claimed by a poster on here, one of the first jobs of government is to avoid triggering hysteria in the financial markets. Not do everything they can to provoke it. Because "hysteria" in the financial markets tends to be quite bad news.
The Armenians, come to think of it, we’re using Russian style “tactics”. Or lack of them. Driving a single unsupported tank around in the vicinity of a semi competent enemy is not a good idea. And hasn’t been since about 1916
If it’s a deliberate policy, they’ve been lying to people because they never admitted this. If it was unintended, then you must agree that they’re incompetent.
and they will likely get 51% of all votes cast...
The Tories are unlikely to lose that 28% core but if they did most of them would go to Farage. After all most of them already voted for Farage at the European elections
And he didn't ask Martha Kearney why TF pension funds were f*cking around with LDI.
Here's butter wouldn't melt Insight Investment telling everyone how sensible it all is.
https://www.insightinvestment.com/globalassets/documents/recent-thinking/eur-an-introduction-to-ldi.pdf
"By investing a portion of assets to help manage liability risks and using remaining assets for growth, LDI aims to offer a much smoother path to improved funding without compromising on target returns."
Pension Fund treasurers are praying that no one notices this part of the whole thing.
There was a middle road not taken - a state led acceptance of reasonable adjustment to a new normal: masks, testing, work from home where possible, etc. that was just abandoned to "do what you think is best". I still wear my mask on public transport and in heavy crowds, but it doesn't matter because you need a certain % of the population to do that for it to work. And that could have easily been kept alive if government wanted to. But they didn't, and now the false equivalence rules...
But did'nt compulsory masking linger on in Scotland and Wales linger on for months after it stopped in England? I seem to recall it made no difference at all, indeed Scotland cases were worse than England.
If I was forced to bet on it, I'd say it was the USA that zapped the pipe, and it is in direct response to Putin threatening nuclear war. This is America saying: we can choke off the Russian economy forever
Noone's claimed they've done it mind. Which I'd expect a non state actor to do. Also it's generally accepted that only states have the means to detonate such a deep and thick pipeline.
Cui bono.
Can I suggest that you set your intellect on the problem of 'build costs' in the event of the collapse you are hoping for in the housing market. Because no one has ever come up with an adequate response to me on this.
The only way for build costs to go down is for the cost of materials and skilled labour to go down. But both are subject to huge inflationary pressure.
I think that a collapse in the housing market will lead to housebuilding on the current model to be unviable for many, many years.
So you seem to be wanting a future where we have all the problems of a collapse in housebuilding, with no new housing being delivered, whilst household formations increase, and we are also subject to significant inward migration.
ETA: piggybacking on an ONS survey, so representative sampling. But not directly the question of interest.
Will it all become normalised in time with an increase in mask wearing? Probably. Possibly. But as it is today I can understand it being termed dystopian.
It would allow slightly more room for negotiation.
MAINSTREAM SW1 , ITS SHITEYES MPS AND NEWSPAPERS, PUT THIS CLOWN IN
Tomorrow the human handgrenade will talk total shit about Putin's announcement, escalate further - and mainstream SW1 will AGREE!!!
THAT'S how much trouble we're in
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1575434129855889410
Really frightening, because all she has left in the toolbox is sub Johnsonian posturing, won't relinquish a single inch of Ukr soil, bollocks. Who would have thought that being a silly c--t could have civilization threatening consequences? I am sooo done with the Conservative party, because anyone involved in facilitating this is responsible for great evil, and it is past the stage where one can think well, if they elect someone a bit more serious and sort themselves out during a period in opposition...
I would think its not something they deliberately wanted to engineer for its own sake, but they would have known its a possible consequence of their actions and they'd be OK with that. Which would be a huge improvement if so on the past thirty years of "prices must never fall" orthodoxy if so.
That's neither lying, nor incompetent. There are always byproducts or consequences or opportunity costs for any decision made and there's no reason to trumpet them or to avoid them.
In this paper, we looked at how people responded to the different restrictions under the tier system, so this was late October 2020.
“Meeting up with others from another household was associated with region (although no individual region reached our threshold for statistical significance), younger age, living in a less deprived area, and living alone (see Supplementary materials). People identifying as Black, Asian, Mixed, or Other ethnicities were less likely to meet others from another household (compared with White British).”
What you quote seems to be by any independent reporting the all-in cost of a self-built individual home, to personal development standards, without any economies of scale, and incorporating legal costs etc and the cost of land too.
Labour and materials alone are a fraction of that, and can be subject to significant economies of scale.
Its the difference between flatpack furniture costs and custom made oak furniture costs, they're worlds apart.
All that was needed was, as suggested above, stickers similar to the "please remember to wash your hands" at toilets alongside public figures acting as role models. No fines or penalties, just a campaign that maybe this is a small change in the grand scheme of things, that other countries have also done for similar reasons. Instead "freedom day".
I'd say 30-50 year olds best understood the overall and age-related risks and felt less personally threatened. They were right. The oldies were more concerned for obvious reasons. The youngsters (by which I mean 15 - 20 year olds) tended to - kind-of - lazily and confirmedly don the masks and observe other stuff etc with a shrug and didn't understand the moans and objections of their parents to something that they didn't see as a big deal.
The views of the young are concerning in my opinion. Doesn't bode well.
I would be very interested in that research once published.
🔥"Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng possess a level of intellectual self-confidence usually found among undergraduates." 🔥~AA
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/29/tory-mp-truss-kwarteng-labour?CMP=share_btn_tw
But if you compare us to sites anywhere else in Europe we don't make much use of them...
In this case the pipeline is the steering wheel and they are making it clear that they don’t care about gas, revenue etc etc because they are staying the course so the west better blink.
Eliminating any chance of a gas pipeline reduces incentive for more voting along those lines in the Bundestag.
The biggest fear of my sister (who was 19 when lockdown started) was going to work (she worked in a nursery and worked all through covid) and brining the virus home and killing our nan. Not that she would get ill and feel bad for a week or so, but real concern for the at risk group. That is what I think the younger people understood better than some middle aged folk.
America has plenty of motivation:
1. Rattle Putin
2. Bind Germany and other European states closer to NATO
3. Ensure Germany never goes back to energy reliance on Russia
4. Blame Russia for the bantz
5. Ensure Russian cannot earn money from that pipe
6. Offer a warning over nukes: look Vlad we can do THIS
America also has the means, and money
Against that is the argument: it would look very bad if America did this and got caught. But would it? NATO is committed to Ukraine. No one will break ranks. Even if the USA "got caught" no one would admit it in public
If house prices fall, then people will seek to get more competitive in their costs. If the barriers to self-building were to be removed, then maybe flat pack style homes could become more common in this country as they are elsewhere. Ikea furniture is reasonably popular afterall.
https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1575460861292023812
Individual freedom is important, but some action needs enough people to get involved. We understand that when it comes to mandatory vaccination, why would it be so terrible to have a new social norm of wearing masks on public transport / enclosed spaces with lots of people / large gatherings?
They’re told to insist government plans are “responsible” and stress that other counties face disruption
One subheading says gov is “committed to responsible economic management”
https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/conservative-mps-told-to-say-truss-kwarteng-economic-plans-are-responsible-leaked-note https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1575459881301278721/photo/1
Sikorski is a little bit maverick, but he is also hugely intelligent
How does US state terrorism in Western Europe keep Europe onside?
How is blowing up the infrastructure in the waters of allied nations something that is in the interests of the US?
Is the US also going to blow up all the other gas pipelines from Russia to Europe?
How does it help the Democrats in the midterms?
We've done vaccines, that's enough. Masks are going far too far.
Interest rates needing to go up was mentioned and discussed during the leadership campaign. We even had this conversation at the time.
Trying to prevent prices going down would sound better if the same hysteria and action was taken to prevent them going up. Where was the tackling of house price inflation in the past quarter of a century?
What goes up must come down. Prices reaching their appropriate levels rather than being overly inflated due to a one way ratchet is not incompetent, its long overdue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4O8rGRLf8
A Biden promise...
Today, hat wearing is much less common. A man wearing a hat is often thought to be a bit of a poseur, maybe a hipster, or one of those people who wears a flat cap to pretend they’re working class when they’re actually an office manager. Women wearing head scarves for religious reasons is actively abhorred by many.
Societies change. No one really knows why hat wearing fell out of style. If there’s a bit more mask wearing in certain contexts and we get a significant reduction in respiratory diseases (old or new ones), I’m not seeing a problem personally.
“Our sources report: #Lukashenko agreed to deploy 120K soldiers 🇷🇺 during November-February. 🇧🇾 undertakes to supply 100K mobilized soldiers in addition. Lukashenko is preparing for a full-scale war. The West must issue an ultimatum he cannot refuse”
https://twitter.com/pavellatushka/status/1575450978685444104?s=46&t=B6TCDEafg33YSegzEbnNdg
We saw similar reactions to Brexit and early Covid
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1575459881301278721
Perceived (and indeed actual) incoherence is her problem everywhere right now. With voters on relationship between energy package, tax cuts, inflation and mortgage rates and with the markets which, do not buy the idea of fiscal policy and monetary policy working so at odds.
For her own political sake (and for our economic one) Truss needs better answers to this incoherence and these questions and quickly. And she’ll have to do it whilst not being able to do much about problem (1) something she herself as acknowledged and attempted to make an asset.
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1575468361068281858
On top of this, you have all the costs associated with the service connections, infrastructure, planning costs, sales, developer profit etc.... and of course the land. All this is cheaper in depopulated and poorer regions in the north of the country than in the crowded south.
You are relying on a 'hunch' that this is all nonsense, but without providing any evidence of your own to back this assertion up.
If we have a recession, the evidence is that build prices don't go down that much. If house prices fall dramatically, nothing will get built until confidence returns to the market and end prices rise. Or alternatively, the whole country gets dragged down to point where everything is as cheap as it is now in Teesside, which isn't most peoples idea of the right way forward.
https://costmodelling.com/construction-indices
That’s proof enough for me. America bitchslapped Germany and kneed Russia in the cullions. America did it
Speaking to Sky News, Chief Secretary to the Treasury Chris Philp MP said it was "true" getting rid of the 45p rate would only help the better off
👉 https://trib.al/LHwHhRy https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1575469189485060097/video/1
Check the Biden video. America did it
You seem to be of the attitude that rampant inflation is the natural order of things and not a problem? Or that ending or reversing the rampant inflation of the past is what is problematic instead?
Other 2/3 bed properties round here are £200,000+
https://twitter.com/WeAreFreeLions/status/1575424526552293376
Free Lions
@WeAreFreeLions
Important COVID-19 news for England fans heading to Qatar.
A PCR test taken no more than 48 hours before travelling to Qatar is required, or a Rapid Antigen Test taken within 24 hours. This must be taken at an official testing site.