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Starmer: The heir to Miliband? – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour Party 2022: Patriot Harder.
    Will the Red Flag be making an appearance?




    I don't see any contradiction between celebrating the life of the late Queen and singing the Red Flag. A democratic socialist constitutional monarchy is what we should be aiming for. And people do really miss her. I was at a party in a local pub last night and the pub had a whole wall given over to a celebration of her life. It made me go a bit tearful!
    According to twitter Starmer has ordered conference to all join in singing GSTK (standing presumably) which I find a bit more off putting than the mawkish tacky stuff tbh. However as I say that is according to twitter..
    I am an atheist monarchist. It is the "God" bit I object to, not the "King" bit.
    Charles is Supreme Governor of the Church of England and takes an oath to protect the security of the Church of Scotland, very much God should be saving him.

    Though personally I would just have GSTK as the royal anthem now the Queen has passed away, played at any event the monarch is in attendance in the UK or in the Commonwealth realms.

    England and the UK should get their own anthems, probably Jerusalem as at the Commonwealth Games and Land of Hope and Glory

    Should he have saved Ed VIII, or only temporarily? Should he have propped up G VI a bit longer?
    He saves whoever is monarch for as long as they are monarch as he divinely ordains
    So what would your position have been on Edward VIII? Since he was divinely ordained as king, should he have married Wallis Simpson and told the government to do one? Or had God turned His face away from him?
    He is divinely ordained as long as he is King, Parliament decided he should abdicate and his brother become King, at which point the divine ordination switched to George VIth
    So Parliament , like Maradona, is the hand of God?
    God also divinely ordains Parliament, hence all MPs swear in by Almighty God
    I don't understand how anyone who spends so much time pontificating about politics can be so ignorant of basic facts.

    The King is crowned by help of God, the standard Parliamentary oath is to Almighty God.

    Atheists on here may not like that but that is the fact
    Only if you believe in God.

    For an atheist the oath is a form of words but has no special meaning other than a normal vow.
  • TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Net favourability:

    Liz Truss / Keir Starmer

    London -45 / +8

    Rest of South -26 / -24

    Midlands and Wales -30 / -15

    North -30 / -28

    Scotland -52 / -18

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,298; 21 September)

    Starmer beating Truss everywhere, although Labour strategists will be perplexed as to why it is so close in the north of England. And, as always, the Scottish numbers look dire for Labour, as a net gain of 124 seats is dependent on one of three things:

    A. An SNP collapse in Scotland
    B. A Con collapse in England
    C. A Lib Dem landslide in the south of England

    None of those three scenarios looks likely at present, although B may come into play next year, unless the global economy perks up pronto. Likelihood of these scenarios happening at the next UK GE?

    B 25/1 ?
    C 33/1 ?
    A 100/1 ?

    If my odds are remotely near correct, then the current price for Lab Maj of 5/2 looks like staggeringly poor value.

    Those rest of South numbers will worry Truss, that is the Tories heartland, if she is even trailing Starmer there on net favourability
    Combined with the YG regional cross breaks showing the Lib Dems at their strongest in rest of the South and London while weak elsewhere (hence much more efficient than
    previously) and she is facing a pincer movement. Lib Dems in Kherson and Labour in Kharkiv.
    Shhh…. Never disturb your enemy when they are embarking on a mistake.
    Truss knows she is faced with a pincer movement.

    It’s just that, like Putin, her strategy involves sending hundreds of thousands of the less well off into a mince grinder, and she knows no kind of alternative.
    She is moving the political discussion. Already, to me, Starmer, with his stupid fatuous pronouncements on wind and solar, looks like a fake, virtue signalling, useless politician of the old school.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,984
    MaxPB said:

    Keir Starmer is in trouble with the hardcore Remainer activists.

    image

    That he's irritating these wankers makes people like me more likely to vote Labour.
    That kind of thinking is insane. And forms the best hope for Truss, in terms of Labour blowing its current position.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Following on from Kuenssberg's interview with Starmer this morning when he said they would quadruple offshore, increase onshore and solar so that the UK would be zero energy by 2030, just at what point is putting so much of our investments in wind actually a poor use of resources as Kuenssberg quite rightly referred to the number of windless days in the UK as per last Friday when just 15% of energy was produced

    This debate is needed now as it seems to me that the future requires nuclear and hopefully tidal, neither of which are dependent on an unreliable source such as wind, and a long transition using north sea gas is required and should be recognised

    If Starmer was saying that we'd get to net zero with wind and solar alone, then he's being a fool (unless there's some magic high-capacity storage tech we don't know about).

    For energy security, our energy supply has to be varied: a little bit of everything: wind, solar, tidal, wave, nuclear, gas, storage etc. I also doubt that net-zero is going to end up being cheaper than (say) gas was in normal times. It is going to cost us, but that cost will probably be less than the cost we have in these interesting times...
    He wants nuclear in the mix. Should be talking batteries though.
    In which case, IMO batteries become a strategic resource. We should be making them in this country (battery capacity does decrease with time, so we will need a small but steady replacement rate).

    Energy security should become key: in all the meanings of 'security', e.g. security of supply and security of price.
  • Excellent opening to the conference, Labour is back as the true UK patriotic party

    GOD SAVE THE KEIR!
  • https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1573992087464321027

    In short, Labour is rehabilitating New Labour. Vote for us, go back to the 90s.

    Oh yes please! Take me back!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,605
    Had breakfast with my sister this morning, she had a good idea. Raise the 40% threshold to £70k and put it up to 43% at the same time. That would be a big tax cut for millions of middle to high income people who are naturally Tory.
  • Tres said:

    Tres said:

    TV Wales say the same sample were asked about Mark Drakeford.

    - Doing Well as Labour Leader - 54%
    - Doing Badly - 35%
    - Don't Know - 11%

    Big G must be gutted.

    Good morning

    I will answer this directly

    Labour have been in power in Wales for decades and yet we have some of the worst poverty in the UK, a failing NHS, and education system, plus a proposed tourist tax and reducing all 30mph to 20mph

    We also have a large public sector and as in Scotland, Wales is effectively a socialist fiefdom

    However I do support the Welsh Government’s attack on holiday homes and not everything they do is negative

    The main factor for me is that it is Westminster that dictates the tax rates hence why I support a conservative government over a labour one

    I have just listened to Starmer on BBC and frankly it was embarrassing when he couldn't give any answer on how he would deal with a price cap beyond April 23, and even worse how labour's drive for big increases in wind and solar to make UK energy zero by 2030 when, as Kuenessberg said, that last Friday that just 15% came from wind. To be fair Starmer did say we would need oil and gas for a transition period which comes back to the point Truss is making in investing in North Sea licences for that transition period of maybe 20 years

    We can all say someone has a car crash interview, but maybe addressing the issues head on rather than one liners is a more sensible way of debate
    Good morning Big_G. Your position regarding Drakeford sounds similar to how some friends consider mine regarding Sturgeon. Don't support their party. Would prefer a different leader. Dislike some of the mouth-foaming lunacy. But recognise there is good as well.

    The social reality is that national democracy has got under the skin of the peoples of Wales and Scotland. They want more say locally in what happens in their nation, regardless of what is happening in Westminster. So my proffered solution remains a proper constitutional settlement which allows the UK to fully devolve powers and authority to the nations.

    Final question - when you say you'd prefer a Tory government over a Labour one, does that include now? Are you supporting "bet everything on red" despite being insanely risky and against everythinng your party has ever stood for?
    Thank you and it is true that those of us in North Wales feel far distant from Cardiff, not only in actual travelling time but to an extent in politics. We do see ourselves closer to Cheshire and Lancashire and maybe that is understandable

    In regard to your last question yes I do support Truss's drive to increase growth and it seems there is a lot more to come on deregulation, doctors pensions, child care, and more but to be honest I am uneasy to a certain extent and it is a gamble, but then keeping things as they are is also a gamble

    I read in the telegraph that fund managers from Scotland and New York are seriously considering moving to the City and if it consolidates London as a centre for finance then I am pleased with that

    I also read that Edinburgh financial advisors are seriously worried about Sturgeons 46% (+1% higher than Westminster) tax rate that they are seeking to move to Berwick and travel in every day by train. It brings back memories of the early 1960s when I did travel to work in Edinburgh by train from Berwick every day pulled by those wonderful legendary steam trains

    I obviously hope that it succeeds, but if it does not then the conservatives will be out of office for a very long time
    Why would these 'Edinburgh financial advisors' be worried about it now if they weren't worried about it last week?
    Because on Friday Kwarteng abolished the 45% tax rate while Sturgeon is at present retaining the 46% rate

    Pay an extra 6% to work in Edinburgh when you are less than an hour from Berwick seems a sensible move and a lovely part of the country to live in
    People in the industry with that mindset would already be working in the Isle of Man or Dubai or wherever.
    You really do not understand why tax affects behaviour

    They can still work in in Edinburgh but save 6% tax by moving to a very nice part of the country and commuting for less than an hour

    Indeed it seems Sturgeon is playing a dangerous game if she does not match Westminster
    No, the Scottish Tories will be playing a dangerous game if they say taxes in Scotland should be set by Westminster. They also have to explain where the equivalent spending cuts would fall.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour Party 2022: Patriot Harder.
    Will the Red Flag be making an appearance?




    This is at the heart of Labour’s strategic conundrum: the more they ape the English Tories, the more distasteful they become to their target voters in Scotland. Mark Drakeford knows what he’s doing. Anas Sarwar is yet another in an astonishing line of SLab duds.

    Labour have made their ‘Muscular Unionism’ (copyright M Gove) bed. Now they must lie in it. Sweet dreams are profoundly unlikely.
    To beat the SNP in Scotland SLab need Tory and LD tactical votes in seats where they are in second place, as Ian Murray does so brilliantly in Edinburgh South. They need to united Unionists behind them, they are not going to win over many if any Nationalists back from the SNP
    The tweeter in the image I posted is a recently retired SLab MSP. Doesn’t Starmer need to keep people like him on board?
    No, Findlay is a hard left socialist who only got into Holyrood on the list
    If Scottish Labour gleefully throw away the hard left socialist vote then they can forget 15-20 gains. No amount of SLD and SCon tactical votes can save them is they start haemorrhaging their core support.
    Vote SNP, get Truss!
  • Excellent opening to the conference, Labour is back as the true UK patriotic party

    Get the sick bags out
  • TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Net favourability:

    Liz Truss / Keir Starmer

    London -45 / +8

    Rest of South -26 / -24

    Midlands and Wales -30 / -15

    North -30 / -28

    Scotland -52 / -18

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,298; 21 September)

    Starmer beating Truss everywhere, although Labour strategists will be perplexed as to why it is so close in the north of England. And, as always, the Scottish numbers look dire for Labour, as a net gain of 124 seats is dependent on one of three things:

    A. An SNP collapse in Scotland
    B. A Con collapse in England
    C. A Lib Dem landslide in the south of England

    None of those three scenarios looks likely at present, although B may come into play next year, unless the global economy perks up pronto. Likelihood of these scenarios happening at the next UK GE?

    B 25/1 ?
    C 33/1 ?
    A 100/1 ?

    If my odds are remotely near correct, then the current price for Lab Maj of 5/2 looks like staggeringly poor value.

    Those rest of South numbers will worry Truss, that is the Tories heartland, if she is even trailing Starmer there on net favourability
    Combined with the YG regional cross breaks showing the Lib Dems at their strongest in rest of the South and London while weak elsewhere (hence much more efficient than
    previously) and she is facing a pincer movement. Lib Dems in Kherson and Labour in Kharkiv.
    Shhh…. Never disturb your enemy when they are embarking on a mistake.
    Truss knows she is faced with a pincer movement.

    It’s just that, like Putin, her strategy involves sending hundreds of thousands of the less well off into a mince grinder, and she knows no kind of alternative.
    She is moving the political discussion. Already, to me, Starmer, with his stupid fatuous pronouncements on wind and solar, looks like a fake, virtue signalling, useless politician of the old school.
    Your view makes me more likely to vote for him, comrade!
  • Excellent opening to the conference, Labour is back as the true UK patriotic party

    Get the sick bags out
    You're pointless.
  • Your view makes me more likely to vote for him, comrade!

    Russianguy1983 sure is doing a great job of confirming that Labour is now firmly of the centre.
  • TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Net favourability:

    Liz Truss / Keir Starmer

    London -45 / +8

    Rest of South -26 / -24

    Midlands and Wales -30 / -15

    North -30 / -28

    Scotland -52 / -18

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,298; 21 September)

    Starmer beating Truss everywhere, although Labour strategists will be perplexed as to why it is so close in the north of England. And, as always, the Scottish numbers look dire for Labour, as a net gain of 124 seats is dependent on one of three things:

    A. An SNP collapse in Scotland
    B. A Con collapse in England
    C. A Lib Dem landslide in the south of England

    None of those three scenarios looks likely at present, although B may come into play next year, unless the global economy perks up pronto. Likelihood of these scenarios happening at the next UK GE?

    B 25/1 ?
    C 33/1 ?
    A 100/1 ?

    If my odds are remotely near correct, then the current price for Lab Maj of 5/2 looks like staggeringly poor value.

    Those rest of South numbers will worry Truss, that is the Tories heartland, if she is even trailing Starmer there on net favourability
    Combined with the YG regional cross breaks showing the Lib Dems at their strongest in rest of the South and London while weak elsewhere (hence much more efficient than
    previously) and she is facing a pincer movement. Lib Dems in Kherson and Labour in Kharkiv.
    Shhh…. Never disturb your enemy when they are embarking on a mistake.
    Truss knows she is faced with a pincer movement.

    It’s just that, like Putin, her strategy involves sending hundreds of thousands of the less well off into a mince grinder, and she knows no kind of alternative.
    She is moving the political discussion. Already, to me, Starmer, with his stupid fatuous pronouncements on wind and solar, looks like a fake, virtue signalling, useless politician of the old school.
    With all due respect, though, you are quite bonkers.
  • TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Net favourability:

    Liz Truss / Keir Starmer

    London -45 / +8

    Rest of South -26 / -24

    Midlands and Wales -30 / -15

    North -30 / -28

    Scotland -52 / -18

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,298; 21 September)

    Starmer beating Truss everywhere, although Labour strategists will be perplexed as to why it is so close in the north of England. And, as always, the Scottish numbers look dire for Labour, as a net gain of 124 seats is dependent on one of three things:

    A. An SNP collapse in Scotland
    B. A Con collapse in England
    C. A Lib Dem landslide in the south of England

    None of those three scenarios looks likely at present, although B may come into play next year, unless the global economy perks up pronto. Likelihood of these scenarios happening at the next UK GE?

    B 25/1 ?
    C 33/1 ?
    A 100/1 ?

    If my odds are remotely near correct, then the current price for Lab Maj of 5/2 looks like staggeringly poor value.

    Those rest of South numbers will worry Truss, that is the Tories heartland, if she is even trailing Starmer there on net favourability
    Combined with the YG regional cross breaks showing the Lib Dems at their strongest in rest of the South and London while weak elsewhere (hence much more efficient than
    previously) and she is facing a pincer movement. Lib Dems in Kherson and Labour in Kharkiv.
    Shhh…. Never disturb your enemy when they are embarking on a mistake.
    Truss knows she is faced with a pincer movement.

    It’s just that, like Putin, her strategy involves sending hundreds of thousands of the less well off into a mince grinder, and she knows no kind of alternative.
    She is moving the political discussion. Already, to me, Starmer, with his stupid fatuous pronouncements on wind and solar, looks like a fake, virtue signalling, useless politician of the old school.
    Your view makes me more likely to vote for him, comrade!
    Sorry to find that you're weak minded enough to be swayed on your vote in that fashion, but that's obviously up to you.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD

    Try this analogy:

    A statement:
    ALL animals have 4 legs therefore having 4 legs is a prerequisite for life.

    A reply:
    But birds have 2 legs so it is not true that ALL animals have 4 legs.

    Consequence:
    The 'therefore' in the first statement is also now not true.

    The key thing here is that the whole statement fails once the 'ALL' fails. The 'ALL' can't be replaced by 'MOST' or 'SOME'.

    Leaving aside whether birds are animals, don't humans have two legs as well?

    Or have I been doing it wrong all these years?
    ????

    You only need one example to prove it wrong so birds was good enough and yes birds are animals, what did you think they were @ydoethur?
    Birds.
    😮😁 And birds are?

    You are winding me up aren't you?
    Dinosaurs

    NOT "descended from dinosaurs."
    And dinosaurs are/were also animals. Have I entered an alternative universe?
    No. you are right, @ydoethur is having an uncharacteristic logic fail, I was making a separate pet point. We don't say modern day fishes are descended from fishes.
    You can't keep dinosaurs as pets.
    Doyouthinkhesawrus
  • TresTres Posts: 1,513

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    TV Wales say the same sample were asked about Mark Drakeford.

    - Doing Well as Labour Leader - 54%
    - Doing Badly - 35%
    - Don't Know - 11%

    Big G must be gutted.

    Good morning

    I will answer this directly

    Labour have been in power in Wales for decades and yet we have some of the worst poverty in the UK, a failing NHS, and education system, plus a proposed tourist tax and reducing all 30mph to 20mph

    We also have a large public sector and as in Scotland, Wales is effectively a socialist fiefdom

    However I do support the Welsh Government’s attack on holiday homes and not everything they do is negative

    The main factor for me is that it is Westminster that dictates the tax rates hence why I support a conservative government over a labour one

    I have just listened to Starmer on BBC and frankly it was embarrassing when he couldn't give any answer on how he would deal with a price cap beyond April 23, and even worse how labour's drive for big increases in wind and solar to make UK energy zero by 2030 when, as Kuenessberg said, that last Friday that just 15% came from wind. To be fair Starmer did say we would need oil and gas for a transition period which comes back to the point Truss is making in investing in North Sea licences for that transition period of maybe 20 years

    We can all say someone has a car crash interview, but maybe addressing the issues head on rather than one liners is a more sensible way of debate
    Good morning Big_G. Your position regarding Drakeford sounds similar to how some friends consider mine regarding Sturgeon. Don't support their party. Would prefer a different leader. Dislike some of the mouth-foaming lunacy. But recognise there is good as well.

    The social reality is that national democracy has got under the skin of the peoples of Wales and Scotland. They want more say locally in what happens in their nation, regardless of what is happening in Westminster. So my proffered solution remains a proper constitutional settlement which allows the UK to fully devolve powers and authority to the nations.

    Final question - when you say you'd prefer a Tory government over a Labour one, does that include now? Are you supporting "bet everything on red" despite being insanely risky and against everythinng your party has ever stood for?
    Thank you and it is true that those of us in North Wales feel far distant from Cardiff, not only in actual travelling time but to an extent in politics. We do see ourselves closer to Cheshire and Lancashire and maybe that is understandable

    In regard to your last question yes I do support Truss's drive to increase growth and it seems there is a lot more to come on deregulation, doctors pensions, child care, and more but to be honest I am uneasy to a certain extent and it is a gamble, but then keeping things as they are is also a gamble

    I read in the telegraph that fund managers from Scotland and New York are seriously considering moving to the City and if it consolidates London as a centre for finance then I am pleased with that

    I also read that Edinburgh financial advisors are seriously worried about Sturgeons 46% (+1% higher than Westminster) tax rate that they are seeking to move to Berwick and travel in every day by train. It brings back memories of the early 1960s when I did travel to work in Edinburgh by train from Berwick every day pulled by those wonderful legendary steam trains

    I obviously hope that it succeeds, but if it does not then the conservatives will be out of office for a very long time
    Why would these 'Edinburgh financial advisors' be worried about it now if they weren't worried about it last week?
    Because on Friday Kwarteng abolished the 45% tax rate while Sturgeon is at present retaining the 46% rate

    Pay an extra 6% to work in Edinburgh when you are less than an hour from Berwick seems a sensible move and a lovely part of the country to live in
    People in the industry with that mindset would already be working in the Isle of Man or Dubai or wherever.
    You really do not understand why tax affects behaviour

    They can still work in in Edinburgh but save 6% tax by moving to a very nice part of the country and commuting for less than an hour

    Indeed it seems Sturgeon is playing a dangerous game if she does not match Westminster
    Moving to a different country....
    There are already oodles of incentives to people to move if their goal in life is to minimise the tax they pay. I think you are over egging the charms of Berwick/Carlisle.
  • Sorry to find that you're weak minded enough to be swayed on your vote in that fashion, but that's obviously up to you.

    Dude you're literally a Putin supporter, it is you that is weak minded
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 37,052
    HYUFD said:

    According to Tim Shipman he was with a group of hedge fund managers last week, all of whom were supporters of Truss. They then made money shorting the pound on Friday.

    Shameful, none of them are decent Tories in any sense of the word. Indeed even Starmer Labour has showed more patriotism than them today.

    Shades of Black Wednesday
    Truly, you are a funny old sausage.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605

    Excellent opening to the conference, Labour is back as the true UK patriotic party

    Get the sick bags out
    Why? Has Hamza Yusuf turned up?
  • ydoethur said:

    Excellent opening to the conference, Labour is back as the true UK patriotic party

    Get the sick bags out
    Why? Has Hamza Yusuf turned up?
    Love the new photo friend
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,280
    MaxPB said:

    Had breakfast with my sister this morning, she had a good idea. Raise the 40% threshold to £70k and put it up to 43% at the same time. That would be a big tax cut for millions of middle to high income people who are naturally Tory.

    That might go down quite well in the home counties. I'm not sure why the residents of Bucks and Herts are going to be that keen on tax cuts for those earning over £150k. Most of them are nowhere near that.
  • Wales seat projection

    LAB: 32 (+10)
    PLC: 5 (+1)
    CON: 3 (-11)

    Changes w/ GE2019.

    Labour is coming home.
  • Kwasi is not a great media performer.

    Usually that doesn’t matter so much with Chancellors, but as he’s literally decided to take on the bond market…
  • TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Net favourability:

    Liz Truss / Keir Starmer

    London -45 / +8

    Rest of South -26 / -24

    Midlands and Wales -30 / -15

    North -30 / -28

    Scotland -52 / -18

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,298; 21 September)

    Starmer beating Truss everywhere, although Labour strategists will be perplexed as to why it is so close in the north of England. And, as always, the Scottish numbers look dire for Labour, as a net gain of 124 seats is dependent on one of three things:

    A. An SNP collapse in Scotland
    B. A Con collapse in England
    C. A Lib Dem landslide in the south of England

    None of those three scenarios looks likely at present, although B may come into play next year, unless the global economy perks up pronto. Likelihood of these scenarios happening at the next UK GE?

    B 25/1 ?
    C 33/1 ?
    A 100/1 ?

    If my odds are remotely near correct, then the current price for Lab Maj of 5/2 looks like staggeringly poor value.

    Those rest of South numbers will worry Truss, that is the Tories heartland, if she is even trailing Starmer there on net favourability
    Combined with the YG regional cross breaks showing the Lib Dems at their strongest in rest of the South and London while weak elsewhere (hence much more efficient than
    previously) and she is facing a pincer movement. Lib Dems in Kherson and Labour in Kharkiv.
    Shhh…. Never disturb your enemy when they are embarking on a mistake.
    Truss knows she is faced with a pincer movement.

    It’s just that, like Putin, her strategy involves sending hundreds of thousands of the less well off into a mince grinder, and she knows no kind of alternative.
    She is moving the political discussion. Already, to me, Starmer, with his stupid fatuous pronouncements on wind and solar, looks like a fake, virtue signalling, useless politician of the old school.
    With all due respect, though, you are quite bonkers.
    :lol:

    How rude.
  • Is anyone still suggesting that the Tories are aiming at the Red Wall? It seems they are now implicitly saying it's gone and they will try and win through another route now
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605

    ydoethur said:

    Excellent opening to the conference, Labour is back as the true UK patriotic party

    Get the sick bags out
    Why? Has Hamza Yusuf turned up?
    Love the new photo friend
    Thanks - that's straight from the Horse's mouth?
  • :lol:

    How rude.

    Dude you're crazy. Some of the stuff you post is literally nuts.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Excellent opening to the conference, Labour is back as the true UK patriotic party

    Get the sick bags out
    Why? Has Hamza Yusuf turned up?
    Love the new photo friend
    Thanks - that's straight from the Horse's mouth?
    I can neigh-ther confirm neigh deny
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,347
    edited September 2022
    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    Tres said:

    TV Wales say the same sample were asked about Mark Drakeford.

    - Doing Well as Labour Leader - 54%
    - Doing Badly - 35%
    - Don't Know - 11%

    Big G must be gutted.

    Good morning

    I will answer this directly

    Labour have been in power in Wales for decades and yet we have some of the worst poverty in the UK, a failing NHS, and education system, plus a proposed tourist tax and reducing all 30mph to 20mph

    We also have a large public sector and as in Scotland, Wales is effectively a socialist fiefdom

    However I do support the Welsh Government’s attack on holiday homes and not everything they do is negative

    The main factor for me is that it is Westminster that dictates the tax rates hence why I support a conservative government over a labour one

    I have just listened to Starmer on BBC and frankly it was embarrassing when he couldn't give any answer on how he would deal with a price cap beyond April 23, and even worse how labour's drive for big increases in wind and solar to make UK energy zero by 2030 when, as Kuenessberg said, that last Friday that just 15% came from wind. To be fair Starmer did say we would need oil and gas for a transition period which comes back to the point Truss is making in investing in North Sea licences for that transition period of maybe 20 years

    We can all say someone has a car crash interview, but maybe addressing the issues head on rather than one liners is a more sensible way of debate
    Good morning Big_G. Your position regarding Drakeford sounds similar to how some friends consider mine regarding Sturgeon. Don't support their party. Would prefer a different leader. Dislike some of the mouth-foaming lunacy. But recognise there is good as well.

    The social reality is that national democracy has got under the skin of the peoples of Wales and Scotland. They want more say locally in what happens in their nation, regardless of what is happening in Westminster. So my proffered solution remains a proper constitutional settlement which allows the UK to fully devolve powers and authority to the nations.

    Final question - when you say you'd prefer a Tory government over a Labour one, does that include now? Are you supporting "bet everything on red" despite being insanely risky and against everythinng your party has ever stood for?
    Thank you and it is true that those of us in North Wales feel far distant from Cardiff, not only in actual travelling time but to an extent in politics. We do see ourselves closer to Cheshire and Lancashire and maybe that is understandable

    In regard to your last question yes I do support Truss's drive to increase growth and it seems there is a lot more to come on deregulation, doctors pensions, child care, and more but to be honest I am uneasy to a certain extent and it is a gamble, but then keeping things as they are is also a gamble

    I read in the telegraph that fund managers from Scotland and New York are seriously considering moving to the City and if it consolidates London as a centre for finance then I am pleased with that

    I also read that Edinburgh financial advisors are seriously worried about Sturgeons 46% (+1% higher than Westminster) tax rate that they are seeking to move to Berwick and travel in every day by train. It brings back memories of the early 1960s when I did travel to work in Edinburgh by train from Berwick every day pulled by those wonderful legendary steam trains

    I obviously hope that it succeeds, but if it does not then the conservatives will be out of office for a very long time
    Why would these 'Edinburgh financial advisors' be worried about it now if they weren't worried about it last week?
    Because on Friday Kwarteng abolished the 45% tax rate while Sturgeon is at present retaining the 46% rate

    Pay an extra 6% to work in Edinburgh when you are less than an hour from Berwick seems a sensible move and a lovely part of the country to live in
    People in the industry with that mindset would already be working in the Isle of Man or Dubai or wherever.
    You really do not understand why tax affects behaviour

    They can still work in in Edinburgh but save 6% tax by moving to a very nice part of the country and commuting for less than an hour

    Indeed it seems Sturgeon is playing a dangerous game if she does not match Westminster
    Moving to a different country....
    There are already oodles of incentives to people to move if their goal in life is to minimise the tax they pay. I think you are over egging the charms of Berwick/Carlisle.
    Berwick because I lived there from the age of 9 to 17 and it was a wonderful place to live and I used to commute to Edinburgh daily when I started work

    Carlisle is not in the equation when relating to Edinburgh

    The 6% tax difference only happened last Friday
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,579
    edited September 2022

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Excellent opening to the conference, Labour is back as the true UK patriotic party

    Get the sick bags out
    Why? Has Hamza Yusuf turned up?
    Love the new photo friend
    Thanks - that's straight from the Horse's mouth?
    I can neigh-ther confirm neigh deny
    I didn’t know you were Northern Irish.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Excellent opening to the conference, Labour is back as the true UK patriotic party

    Get the sick bags out
    Why? Has Hamza Yusuf turned up?
    Love the new photo friend
    Thanks - that's straight from the Horse's mouth?
    I can neigh-ther confirm neigh deny
    I didn’t know you were Northern Irish.
    Actually a quarter Horseish
  • HYUFD is my horsey pal
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,984

    IshmaelZ said:

    Following on from Kuenssberg's interview with Starmer this morning when he said they would quadruple offshore, increase onshore and solar so that the UK would be zero energy by 2030, just at what point is putting so much of our investments in wind actually a poor use of resources as Kuenssberg quite rightly referred to the number of windless days in the UK as per last Friday when just 15% of energy was produced

    This debate is needed now as it seems to me that the future requires nuclear and hopefully tidal, neither of which are dependent on an unreliable source such as wind, and a long transition using north sea gas is required and should be recognised

    If Starmer was saying that we'd get to net zero with wind and solar alone, then he's being a fool (unless there's some magic high-capacity storage tech we don't know about).

    For energy security, our energy supply has to be varied: a little bit of everything: wind, solar, tidal, wave, nuclear, gas, storage etc. I also doubt that net-zero is going to end up being cheaper than (say) gas was in normal times. It is going to cost us, but that cost will probably be less than the cost we have in these interesting times...
    He wants nuclear in the mix. Should be talking batteries though.
    In which case, IMO batteries become a strategic resource. We should be making them in this country (battery capacity does decrease with time, so we will need a small but steady replacement rate).

    Energy security should become key: in all the meanings of 'security', e.g. security of supply and security of price.
    Batteries are not, quite possibly, the best storage solution. But due to their ease of deployment, they will very likely win. One sensible government policy is the smaller scale power storage - up to a few dozen MWh, IIRC - doesn’t go though full power station planning.

    So quite a few of the fast charging facilities for cars will have storage on site. And some of the providers are already negotiating with power suppliers to rent out their planned storage capacity.
  • I love the idea that, after a budget that leaves analysts, economists and ordinary people in horror, that somehow it is Sturgeon that faces big challenges.
  • Kwasi is not a great media performer.

    Usually that doesn’t matter so much with Chancellors, but as he’s literally decided to take on the bond market…

    I love the idea ScottP raised earlier of setting a bear trap for people shorting the pound. It would be great if those people lost their shirts. Would be very hard to do I imagine.
  • When Truss became PM, I said I was willing to give her some time to settle in.

    Now, I am not an economist, and I am not someone who is particularly savvy in the way the financial world works. So there is a chance that it is a wizard wheeze that will settle the country on a course to massive prosperity.

    But I cannot see it, and the politics of it really stinks. Really, really stinks.

    Unless she does something amazing (what?) then there's no way I'm voting Tory. My constituency is an interesting one: it was a fairly solid Conservative area that the Lib Dems nearly grabbed in 2019 ('nearly' as getting within 3,000 votes instead of the 16,000 in 2017).
  • Rishi for all his many faults was a good media performer.

    Kwasi is dreadful, actually worse than Rachel Reeves by quite a long way.

    The next election will certainly not be won on personalities.
  • When Truss became PM, I said I was willing to give her some time to settle in.

    Now, I am not an economist, and I am not someone who is particularly savvy in the way the financial world works. So there is a chance that it is a wizard wheeze that will settle the country on a course to massive prosperity.

    But I cannot see it, and the politics of it really stinks. Really, really stinks.

    Unless she does something amazing (what?) then there's no way I'm voting Tory. My constituency is an interesting one: it was a fairly solid Conservative area that the Lib Dems nearly grabbed in 2019 ('nearly' as getting within 3,000 votes instead of the 16,000 in 2017).

    I believe we will see some odd Lib Dem gains.

    Not odd but Winchester, Guildford nailed on now. Tories go down there now like a cup of cold sick.
  • TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Net favourability:

    Liz Truss / Keir Starmer

    London -45 / +8

    Rest of South -26 / -24

    Midlands and Wales -30 / -15

    North -30 / -28

    Scotland -52 / -18

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,298; 21 September)

    Starmer beating Truss everywhere, although Labour strategists will be perplexed as to why it is so close in the north of England. And, as always, the Scottish numbers look dire for Labour, as a net gain of 124 seats is dependent on one of three things:

    A. An SNP collapse in Scotland
    B. A Con collapse in England
    C. A Lib Dem landslide in the south of England

    None of those three scenarios looks likely at present, although B may come into play next year, unless the global economy perks up pronto. Likelihood of these scenarios happening at the next UK GE?

    B 25/1 ?
    C 33/1 ?
    A 100/1 ?

    If my odds are remotely near correct, then the current price for Lab Maj of 5/2 looks like staggeringly poor value.

    Those rest of South numbers will worry Truss, that is the Tories heartland, if she is even trailing Starmer there on net favourability
    Combined with the YG regional cross breaks showing the Lib Dems at their strongest in rest of the South and London while weak elsewhere (hence much more efficient than
    previously) and she is facing a pincer movement. Lib Dems in Kherson and Labour in Kharkiv.
    Shhh…. Never disturb your enemy when they are embarking on a mistake.
    Truss knows she is faced with a pincer movement.

    It’s just that, like Putin, her strategy involves sending hundreds of thousands of the less well off into a mince grinder, and she knows no kind of alternative.
    She is moving the political discussion. Already, to me, Starmer, with his stupid fatuous pronouncements on wind and solar, looks like a fake, virtue signalling, useless politician of the old school.
    Your view makes me more likely to vote for him, comrade!
    Sorry to find that you're weak minded enough to be swayed on your vote in that fashion, but that's obviously up to you.
    LOL.

    *You* spewed whatever excuses Russia gave over the MH17 shootdown on here as the 'truth' (and haven't said you were wrong and apologised).

    *You* denied Assad's use of chemical weapons.

    *You* just called Syria a 'livable state'.

    If you're not a Russian troll operating out of St Petersburg or Moscow, then you're virtually undistinguishable from one. If you actually believe what you type, then you are truly 'weal minded'.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Interesred to read earlier sbout a 'pincer' movement and what YouGov shows re the LDs.
    To be factual, the latest YouGov shows the LDs down 1% in London and down 5 to 6% in the 'rest of the south' and roughly the same in the N and Midlands, maybe down 1%. Any talk of that YouGov showing increased LD efficiency down South is complete bollocks. As with anything, other regional crossbreaks may show a different story.
    LD gains down south if the last YG transpired would be entirely due to Tory collapse and zero to do with LD efficiency.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605

    Rishi for all his many faults was a good media performer.

    Kwasi is dreadful, actually worse than Rachel Reeves by quite a long way.

    The next election will certainly not be won on personalities.

    Blackadder: We have fought on issues, not personalities.

    Vincent Hanna: Why is that?

    Blackadder (indicates Baldrick): Because our candidate doesn't have a personality.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,497
    edited September 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour Party 2022: Patriot Harder.
    Will the Red Flag be making an appearance?




    I don't see any contradiction between celebrating the life of the late Queen and singing the Red Flag. A democratic socialist constitutional monarchy is what we should be aiming for. And people do really miss her. I was at a party in a local pub last night and the pub had a whole wall given over to a celebration of her life. It made me go a bit tearful!
    According to twitter Starmer has ordered conference to all join in singing GSTK (standing presumably) which I find a bit more off putting than the mawkish tacky stuff tbh. However as I say that is according to twitter..
    I am an atheist monarchist. It is the "God" bit I object to, not the "King" bit.
    Charles is Supreme Governor of the Church of England and takes an oath to protect the security of the Church of Scotland, very much God should be saving him.

    Though personally I would just have GSTK as the royal anthem now the Queen has passed away, played at any event the monarch is in attendance in the UK or in the Commonwealth realms.

    England and the UK should get their own anthems, probably Jerusalem as at the Commonwealth Games and Land of Hope and Glory

    Should he have saved Ed VIII, or only temporarily? Should he have propped up G VI a bit longer?
    He saves whoever is monarch for as long as they are monarch as he divinely ordains
    So what would your position have been on Edward VIII? Since he was divinely ordained as king, should he have married Wallis Simpson and told the government to do one? Or had God turned His face away from him?
    He is divinely ordained as long as he is King, Parliament decided he should abdicate and his brother become King, at which point the divine ordination switched to George VIth
    So Parliament , like Maradona, is the hand of God?
    God also divinely ordains Parliament, hence all MPs swear in by Almighty God
    I don't understand how anyone who spends so much time pontificating about politics can be so ignorant of basic facts.

    The King is crowned by help of God, the standard Parliamentary oath is to Almighty God.

    Atheists on here may not like that but that is the fact
    Theists may not like it but it is fact that people have not been required to swear in a religious sense for a long time.

    I know you know that and are pretending you don't for a laugh, since you said 'the standard parliamentary oath', showing you know there are others of equal validity.

    For a Conservative you seem to like opposing conservative positions a lot. Or, as in this case, you are pretending to believe something you obviously do not, given you were careful to caveat as you know the claim you made was not true.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Is anyone still suggesting that the Tories are aiming at the Red Wall? It seems they are now implicitly saying it's gone and they will try and win through another route now

    Nobody is saying that, implicitly or otherwise. They will run first time incumbency and long term trend defence on the red wall, and active defence on the blue.
  • ydoethur said:

    Rishi for all his many faults was a good media performer.

    Kwasi is dreadful, actually worse than Rachel Reeves by quite a long way.

    The next election will certainly not be won on personalities.

    Blackadder: We have fought on issues, not personalities.

    Vincent Hanna: Why is that?

    Blackadder (indicates Baldrick): Because our candidate doesn't have a personality.
    You consistently make me laugh :D What a fab poster you are
  • TresTres Posts: 1,513

    Interesred to read earlier sbout a 'pincer' movement and what YouGov shows re the LDs.
    To be factual, the latest YouGov shows the LDs down 1% in London and down 5 to 6% in the 'rest of the south' and roughly the same in the N and Midlands, maybe down 1%. Any talk of that YouGov showing increased LD efficiency down South is complete bollocks. As with anything, other regional crossbreaks may show a different story.
    LD gains down south if the last YG transpired would be entirely due to Tory collapse and zero to do with LD efficiency.

    this post needs the sub-sample margin of error klaxon methinks
  • At this moment, between (the Labour Party | Conservative Party), which party do you associate with the following characteristics:

    Stands by the British worker (41% | 16%)
    Supports more NHS spending (39% | 19%)
    Believes in Free Market (21% | 28%)
    Tough on immigration (17% | 34%)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605

    ydoethur said:

    Rishi for all his many faults was a good media performer.

    Kwasi is dreadful, actually worse than Rachel Reeves by quite a long way.

    The next election will certainly not be won on personalities.

    Blackadder: We have fought on issues, not personalities.

    Vincent Hanna: Why is that?

    Blackadder (indicates Baldrick): Because our candidate doesn't have a personality.
    You consistently make me laugh :D What a fab poster you are
    Why thank you. I can live for two months on a good compliment, so that will come in handy right now.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,315

    kjh said:

    Sandpit said:

    Right, holiday beckons. A week with books and coctails, instead of being online 18 hours a day.

    Let’s hope there’s not WWIII to come back to next weekend! Laters ✈️

    Going somewhere with a lot of sun and sand?
    If I was living in Dubai “sun and sand” is the last thing I’d want on holiday!
    That was why I said it.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,315
    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    @HYUFD

    Try this analogy:

    A statement:
    ALL animals have 4 legs therefore having 4 legs is a prerequisite for life.

    A reply:
    But birds have 2 legs so it is not true that ALL animals have 4 legs.

    Consequence:
    The 'therefore' in the first statement is also now not true.

    The key thing here is that the whole statement fails once the 'ALL' fails. The 'ALL' can't be replaced by 'MOST' or 'SOME'.

    Leaving aside whether birds are animals, don't humans have two legs as well?

    Or have I been doing it wrong all these years?
    ????

    You only need one example to prove it wrong so birds was good enough and yes birds are animals, what did you think they were @ydoethur?
    Birds.
    😮😁 And birds are?

    You are winding me up aren't you?
    Yes.

    I was hoping to keep it going longer...
    Bugger.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,417
    edited September 2022

    TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Net favourability:

    Liz Truss / Keir Starmer

    London -45 / +8

    Rest of South -26 / -24

    Midlands and Wales -30 / -15

    North -30 / -28

    Scotland -52 / -18

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,298; 21 September)

    Starmer beating Truss everywhere, although Labour strategists will be perplexed as to why it is so close in the north of England. And, as always, the Scottish numbers look dire for Labour, as a net gain of 124 seats is dependent on one of three things:

    A. An SNP collapse in Scotland
    B. A Con collapse in England
    C. A Lib Dem landslide in the south of England

    None of those three scenarios looks likely at present, although B may come into play next year, unless the global economy perks up pronto. Likelihood of these scenarios happening at the next UK GE?

    B 25/1 ?
    C 33/1 ?
    A 100/1 ?

    If my odds are remotely near correct, then the current price for Lab Maj of 5/2 looks like staggeringly poor value.

    Those rest of South numbers will worry Truss, that is the Tories heartland, if she is even trailing Starmer there on net favourability
    Combined with the YG regional cross breaks showing the Lib Dems at their strongest in rest of the South and London while weak elsewhere (hence much more efficient than
    previously) and she is facing a pincer movement. Lib Dems in Kherson and Labour in Kharkiv.
    Shhh…. Never disturb your enemy when they are embarking on a mistake.
    Truss knows she is faced with a pincer movement.

    It’s just that, like Putin, her strategy involves sending hundreds of thousands of the less well off into a mince grinder, and she knows no kind of alternative.
    She is moving the political discussion. Already, to me, Starmer, with his stupid fatuous pronouncements on wind and solar, looks like a fake, virtue signalling, useless politician of the old school.
    Your view makes me more likely to vote for him, comrade!
    Sorry to find that you're weak minded enough to be swayed on your vote in that fashion, but that's obviously up to you.
    LOL.

    *You* spewed whatever excuses Russia gave over the MH17 shootdown on here as the 'truth' (and haven't said you were wrong and apologised).

    *You* denied Assad's use of chemical weapons.

    *You* just called Syria a 'livable state'.

    If you're not a Russian troll operating out of St Petersburg or Moscow, then you're virtually undistinguishable from one. If you actually believe what you type, then you are truly 'weal minded'.
    I find it truly pathetic that you feel you have the role of policing thought on PB. I will occasionally point out the rank hypocrisy of your empty pontificating on Russia (nobody mention Turkey), but the bottom line is, you're entitled to your opinion - rock on. Perhaps you're more used to taking orders than giving them in your daily life, so this is something of an outlet for you. Either way, engaging with you today has already been an utter waste of my time, so I'll just let you get on. Bye for now.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    Tres said:

    Interesred to read earlier sbout a 'pincer' movement and what YouGov shows re the LDs.
    To be factual, the latest YouGov shows the LDs down 1% in London and down 5 to 6% in the 'rest of the south' and roughly the same in the N and Midlands, maybe down 1%. Any talk of that YouGov showing increased LD efficiency down South is complete bollocks. As with anything, other regional crossbreaks may show a different story.
    LD gains down south if the last YG transpired would be entirely due to Tory collapse and zero to do with LD efficiency.

    this post needs the sub-sample margin of error klaxon methinks
    Not really, its a reply to an earlier post making spurious claims about what the most recent YouGov showed, i'm stating what it actually showed, and point out other regional crossbreaks will show a different story in the post.
  • When Truss became PM, I said I was willing to give her some time to settle in.

    Now, I am not an economist, and I am not someone who is particularly savvy in the way the financial world works. So there is a chance that it is a wizard wheeze that will settle the country on a course to massive prosperity.

    But I cannot see it, and the politics of it really stinks. Really, really stinks.

    Unless she does something amazing (what?) then there's no way I'm voting Tory. My constituency is an interesting one: it was a fairly solid Conservative area that the Lib Dems nearly grabbed in 2019 ('nearly' as getting within 3,000 votes instead of the 16,000 in 2017).

    the Conservatives spent a long time trying to lose the nasty party label.....I sense its come back with a vengeance.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,013
    edited September 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Labour Party 2022: Patriot Harder.
    Will the Red Flag be making an appearance?




    I don't see any contradiction between celebrating the life of the late Queen and singing the Red Flag. A democratic socialist constitutional monarchy is what we should be aiming for. And people do really miss her. I was at a party in a local pub last night and the pub had a whole wall given over to a celebration of her life. It made me go a bit tearful!
    I'm not a socialist (in any form) but I wouldn't have a problem with that.

    I don't mind what vision people have for the UK as long as they love it.
    Back in the day I used to have this quaint notion that when I bought big ticket items I should buy British, even though the quality was a bit iffy. Supporting Britain, supporting British workers, against the tide seemed the right thing to do. My Tory friends laughed at my folly from the comfort of their German and Japanese cars. British workers are lazy and their product poor they would say. Of course they realised they could claim their redemption by saluting the flag.

    I watched in horror as British manufacturing moved out and the jobs were lost. Why are Brits so unpatriotic I thought? The Police in their BMWs, the ambulance service in their Mercedes trucks, Volvo fire engines and Royal Mail Peugeot vans. This wouldn't happen in France or Germany!

    So then there was nothing British to buy so I have a home full of German white goods and a drive full of German cars. But it's OK, I can salute the Union flag. That makes me a patriot.
    The French high performance Police cars I thought were German to be honest
    There was a point when the German police demanded Land Rovers back in the 70s and they were told no, you'll have to wait for the G Wagon.

    Anyway, I thought you were on my side!
    G Wagen, mein Herr.
    I am a British flag waving patriot. It's not my fault the Germans can't spell wagon.
    Shit

    the muthas cost £123,500 OTR. Entry level. They can spell it how they like...
    They didn't used to be.

    Back in the 1980s they were quite modestly priced and utilitarian, and a decent alternative to a Land Rover 90 or 110 County. Now, a 1970s utility vehicle dressed up like a Lulu Lytle tart's boudoir.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    When Truss became PM, I said I was willing to give her some time to settle in.

    Now, I am not an economist, and I am not someone who is particularly savvy in the way the financial world works. So there is a chance that it is a wizard wheeze that will settle the country on a course to massive prosperity.

    But I cannot see it, and the politics of it really stinks. Really, really stinks.

    Unless she does something amazing (what?) then there's no way I'm voting Tory. My constituency is an interesting one: it was a fairly solid Conservative area that the Lib Dems nearly grabbed in 2019 ('nearly' as getting within 3,000 votes instead of the 16,000 in 2017).

    the Conservatives spent a long time trying to lose the nasty party label.....I sense its come back with a vengeance.
    The hug a hoodie pussies are being exterminated
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,013
    edited September 2022
    Deleted. Like the Red Flag.
  • TimS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Net favourability:

    Liz Truss / Keir Starmer

    London -45 / +8

    Rest of South -26 / -24

    Midlands and Wales -30 / -15

    North -30 / -28

    Scotland -52 / -18

    (PeoplePolling/GB News; 1,298; 21 September)

    Starmer beating Truss everywhere, although Labour strategists will be perplexed as to why it is so close in the north of England. And, as always, the Scottish numbers look dire for Labour, as a net gain of 124 seats is dependent on one of three things:

    A. An SNP collapse in Scotland
    B. A Con collapse in England
    C. A Lib Dem landslide in the south of England

    None of those three scenarios looks likely at present, although B may come into play next year, unless the global economy perks up pronto. Likelihood of these scenarios happening at the next UK GE?

    B 25/1 ?
    C 33/1 ?
    A 100/1 ?

    If my odds are remotely near correct, then the current price for Lab Maj of 5/2 looks like staggeringly poor value.

    Those rest of South numbers will worry Truss, that is the Tories heartland, if she is even trailing Starmer there on net favourability
    Combined with the YG regional cross breaks showing the Lib Dems at their strongest in rest of the South and London while weak elsewhere (hence much more efficient than
    previously) and she is facing a pincer movement. Lib Dems in Kherson and Labour in Kharkiv.
    Shhh…. Never disturb your enemy when they are embarking on a mistake.
    Truss knows she is faced with a pincer movement.

    It’s just that, like Putin, her strategy involves sending hundreds of thousands of the less well off into a mince grinder, and she knows no kind of alternative.
    She is moving the political discussion. Already, to me, Starmer, with his stupid fatuous pronouncements on wind and solar, looks like a fake, virtue signalling, useless politician of the old school.
    Your view makes me more likely to vote for him, comrade!
    Sorry to find that you're weak minded enough to be swayed on your vote in that fashion, but that's obviously up to you.
    LOL.

    *You* spewed whatever excuses Russia gave over the MH17 shootdown on here as the 'truth' (and haven't said you were wrong and apologised).

    *You* denied Assad's use of chemical weapons.

    *You* just called Syria a 'livable state'.

    If you're not a Russian troll operating out of St Petersburg or Moscow, then you're virtually undistinguishable from one. If you actually believe what you type, then you are truly 'weal minded'.
    I find it truly pathetic that you feel you have the role of policing thought on PB. I will occasionally point out the rank hypocrisy of your empty pontificating on Russia (nobody mention Turkey), but the bottom line is, you're entitled to your opinion - rock on. Perhaps you're more used to taking orders than giving them in your daily life, so this is something of an outlet for you. Either way, engaging with you today has already been an utter waste of my time, so I'll just let you get on. Bye for now.
    As I pointed out earlier, there is no 'rank hypocrisy': you just choose to misrepresent what I said. It's particularly hard to take my often-stated belief that there should be a Kurdish state as a sign that I'm in line with Turkish government thinking.

    "Perhaps you're more used to taking orders than giving them in your daily life."

    LOL. No. But we'll see how good you are at taking orders when you get your mobilisation papers. And if by some odd chance you are not actually Russian, and instead a Brit, you could go to Moscow and volunteer. Or do you think you're doing a better job for Putin over here (hint: you are not; you are too obvious.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622
    The Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you via deepest North Carolina:

    The prime minister wants this to be seen as Month One of the Truss revolution. She does not want this to be seen as Month One Hundred and Forty Eight of Conservative rule in which her chancellor took the most colossal gamble with the nation’s finances and its people’s livelihoods because all the previous Tory bets on the economy haven’t come off.

    One of the questions voters most often ask themselves about politicians is: whose side are you on? Being on the side that wants to put more money in the pockets of the already wealthy and the cash-gushing energy majors is not self-evidently the side to be on if you want to win the next election. This is a target-rich environment for Labour.

    Conservative MPs are asking themselves whether Mr Kwarteng has been brilliant or bonkers. The markets are saying bonkers.

    By betting both her party’s electoral fortunes and the nation’s finances on kickstarting the economy, Ms Truss has chosen to make growth the decisive arena of political struggle. That creates the space for Labour to make a compelling pitch for its alternative plan for growth.

    Many economists and business people think Labour has a more credible strategy for improving growth in a sustainable way than the Tories’ sugar-rush of tax cuts on the never-never. What Labour now has to do is convey why it has superior ideas in a way that resonates with the typical voter. As one senior Labour figure puts it: “We have to convince people down the pub that Labour has something to say to them.”

    Growth is now the central battleground of British politics. It may not be going too far to say that this is where the next general election will be lost and won.
  • Rishi for all his many faults was a good media performer.

    Kwasi is dreadful, actually worse than Rachel Reeves by quite a long way.

    The next election will certainly not be won on personalities.

    Rachel Reeves looks OK!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    IanB2 said:

    The Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you via deepest North Carolina:

    The prime minister wants this to be seen as Month One of the Truss revolution. She does not want this to be seen as Month One Hundred and Forty Eight of Conservative rule in which her chancellor took the most colossal gamble with the nation’s finances and its people’s livelihoods because all the previous Tory bets on the economy haven’t come off.

    One of the questions voters most often ask themselves about politicians is: whose side are you on? Being on the side that wants to put more money in the pockets of the already wealthy and the cash-gushing energy majors is not self-evidently the side to be on if you want to win the next election. This is a target-rich environment for Labour.

    Conservative MPs are asking themselves whether Mr Kwarteng has been brilliant or bonkers. The markets are saying bonkers.

    By betting both her party’s electoral fortunes and the nation’s finances on kickstarting the economy, Ms Truss has chosen to make growth the decisive arena of political struggle. That creates the space for Labour to make a compelling pitch for its alternative plan for growth.

    Many economists and business people think Labour has a more credible strategy for improving growth in a sustainable way than the Tories’ sugar-rush of tax cuts on the never-never. What Labour now has to do is convey why it has superior ideas in a way that resonates with the typical voter. As one senior Labour figure puts it: “We have to convince people down the pub that Labour has something to say to them.”

    Growth is now the central battleground of British politics. It may not be going too far to say that this is where the next general election will be lost and won.

    Yep. And if we get good growth, Labour have to convince the voters to sack off that growth snd switch to their 'growth package' that may or may not work. If we don't, Labour are home and hosed. Thats the whole point of the mini budget
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,013
    ...

    At this moment, between (the Labour Party | Conservative Party), which party do you associate with the following characteristics:

    Stands by the British worker (41% | 16%)
    Supports more NHS spending (39% | 19%)
    Believes in Free Market (21% | 28%)
    Tough on immigration (17% | 34%)

    Shags the flag (1%/99%)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,622

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Labour Party 2022: Patriot Harder.
    Will the Red Flag be making an appearance?




    I don't see any contradiction between celebrating the life of the late Queen and singing the Red Flag. A democratic socialist constitutional monarchy is what we should be aiming for. And people do really miss her. I was at a party in a local pub last night and the pub had a whole wall given over to a celebration of her life. It made me go a bit tearful!
    According to twitter Starmer has ordered conference to all join in singing GSTK (standing presumably) which I find a bit more off putting than the mawkish tacky stuff tbh. However as I say that is according to twitter..
    I am an atheist monarchist. It is the "God" bit I object to, not the "King" bit.
    Charles is Supreme Governor of the Church of England and takes an oath to protect the security of the Church of Scotland, very much God should be saving him.

    Though personally I would just have GSTK as the royal anthem now the Queen has passed away, played at any event the monarch is in attendance in the UK or in the Commonwealth realms.

    England and the UK should get their own anthems, probably Jerusalem as at the Commonwealth Games and Land of Hope and Glory

    Should he have saved Ed VIII, or only temporarily? Should he have propped up G VI a bit longer?
    He saves whoever is monarch for as long as they are monarch as he divinely ordains
    So what would your position have been on Edward VIII? Since he was divinely ordained as king, should he have married Wallis Simpson and told the government to do one? Or had God turned His face away from him?
    He is divinely ordained as long as he is King, Parliament decided he should abdicate and his brother become King, at which point the divine ordination switched to George VIth
    So Parliament , like Maradona, is the hand of God?
    God also divinely ordains Parliament, hence all MPs swear in by Almighty God
    I don't understand how anyone who spends so much time pontificating about politics can be so ignorant of basic facts.

    The King is crowned by help of God, the standard Parliamentary oath is to Almighty God.

    Atheists on here may not like that but that is the fact
    Only if you believe in God.

    For an atheist the oath is a form of words but has no special meaning other than a normal vow.
    Or less than that. For which would you take more seriously, a straightforward promise, or a promise made in allegiance to your teapot?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,243
    Ken Clarke talking sense about Thatcher era budgets.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    ...

    At this moment, between (the Labour Party | Conservative Party), which party do you associate with the following characteristics:

    Stands by the British worker (41% | 16%)
    Supports more NHS spending (39% | 19%)
    Believes in Free Market (21% | 28%)
    Tough on immigration (17% | 34%)

    Shags the flag (1%/99%)
    Lol, Starmer just jizzed all over it to show his Kipper creds 50/50
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,315

    Rishi for all his many faults was a good media performer.

    Kwasi is dreadful, actually worse than Rachel Reeves by quite a long way.

    The next election will certainly not be won on personalities.

    I think they are all ok re media performances. In particular Kwasi and Rachel have very easy to listen to voices.

    I am very biased against Rachel Reeves because in one of the campaigns I am involved in her office was the worst of all the MPs by a long shot. It wasn't close. They were utterly incompetent. At the time she also held the shadow position responsible for the issue so it was also an opportunity if she wanted to make it political (which we didn't).

    If the operation of her office was anything to go by I wouldn't trust her to be able to do anything without cocking it up.
  • ...

    At this moment, between (the Labour Party | Conservative Party), which party do you associate with the following characteristics:

    Stands by the British worker (41% | 16%)
    Supports more NHS spending (39% | 19%)
    Believes in Free Market (21% | 28%)
    Tough on immigration (17% | 34%)

    Shags the flag (1%/99%)
    Only Tory voters are allowed to shag the flag you see. If Labour do it it's not genuine because as we all know, Labour hate the UK.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 1,884
    edited September 2022

    Kwasi is not a great media performer.

    Usually that doesn’t matter so much with Chancellors, but as he’s literally decided to take on the bond market…

    I love the idea ScottP raised earlier of setting a bear trap for people shorting the pound. It would be great if those people lost their shirts. Would be very hard to do I imagine.
    There's a lot more cash in private hands than back in the days of Bretton Woods. We discovered in 1992 that we lack the reserves to manipulate the markets. Even Bretton Woods required governments and central banks to act in unison to preserve pre-agreed exchange rates. Nowadays it's 'devil take the hindmost'.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,315

    At this moment, between (the Labour Party | Conservative Party), which party do you associate with the following characteristics:

    Stands by the British worker (41% | 16%)
    Supports more NHS spending (39% | 19%)
    Believes in Free Market (21% | 28%)
    Tough on immigration (17% | 34%)

    Only 28% think the Conservatives believe in a free market. I must admit I agree with the 72% (ignoring don't knows) but I'm surprised a poll found that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649

    Kwasi is not a great media performer.

    Usually that doesn’t matter so much with Chancellors, but as he’s literally decided to take on the bond market…

    I love the idea ScottP raised earlier of setting a bear trap for people shorting the pound. It would be great if those people lost their shirts. Would be very hard to do I imagine.
    There's a lot more cash in private hands than back in the days of Bretton Woods. We discovered in 1992 that we lack the reserves to manipulate the markets. Even Bretton Woods required governments and central banks to act in unison to preserve pre-agreed exchange rates. Nowadays it's 'devil take the hindmost'.
    Be nice if we could bankrupt that old bastard Buffett
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,625
    https://twitter.com/proftimbale/status/1574009363919937537?s=21&t=FVPyZKBOWC5lK6kSEAFYFw

    “Why Liz Truss's and Kwasi Kwarteng's move is so "brave". The four clusters of UK voters. (Source: global.oup.com/academic/produ…, p. 158).“
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,625

    Tres said:

    Interesred to read earlier sbout a 'pincer' movement and what YouGov shows re the LDs.
    To be factual, the latest YouGov shows the LDs down 1% in London and down 5 to 6% in the 'rest of the south' and roughly the same in the N and Midlands, maybe down 1%. Any talk of that YouGov showing increased LD efficiency down South is complete bollocks. As with anything, other regional crossbreaks may show a different story.
    LD gains down south if the last YG transpired would be entirely due to Tory collapse and zero to do with LD efficiency.

    this post needs the sub-sample margin of error klaxon methinks
    Not really, its a reply to an earlier post making spurious claims about what the most recent YouGov showed, i'm stating what it actually showed, and point out other regional crossbreaks will show a different story in the post.
    Mea Culpa. I checked the previous YG numbers and you’re right. They seemed higher in South than last time I’d looked but I was mistaken.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,624
    dixiedean said:

    Ken Clarke talking sense about Thatcher era budgets.

    Are there any respected Tories from the Thatcher era or indeed any era who hasn't hit the airways to trash Kwarteng and his budget?

    If you just arrived from Mars you'd be forgiven for wondering why he hasn't been sectioned
  • Just to note that net zero electricity and net zero energy are two very different things. In relative terms, the first is piece of piss while the second is bloody difficult.

    From what I have heard I am also unclear whether CCGT with CCS would be within or excluded from Labour policy. If excluded, they'll only get to run for 2-3 years (unless the Moggster cancels the whole thing before it even happens).

    The other thing is BECCS. Do we keep importing wood pellets from the US?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,222
    Early afternoon all :)

    The Conference Speech by Rachel Reeves is going to be very significant. Truss and Kwarteng have redefined the economic battleground and Reeves has a chance to build on the Labour response to Friday's fiscal statement.

    That response will set the tone of the Labour programme at the next GE and I suspect a key element of that will be the notion of "fairness" and we can see it in the acceptance of the lower basic rate tax proposal and resistance to changes to the higher rate.

    Rawnsley may opine the next GE will be about growth - I don't agree, it'll be about wealth and our attitude to it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    TimS said:

    Tres said:

    Interesred to read earlier sbout a 'pincer' movement and what YouGov shows re the LDs.
    To be factual, the latest YouGov shows the LDs down 1% in London and down 5 to 6% in the 'rest of the south' and roughly the same in the N and Midlands, maybe down 1%. Any talk of that YouGov showing increased LD efficiency down South is complete bollocks. As with anything, other regional crossbreaks may show a different story.
    LD gains down south if the last YG transpired would be entirely due to Tory collapse and zero to do with LD efficiency.

    this post needs the sub-sample margin of error klaxon methinks
    Not really, its a reply to an earlier post making spurious claims about what the most recent YouGov showed, i'm stating what it actually showed, and point out other regional crossbreaks will show a different story in the post.
    Mea Culpa. I checked the previous YG numbers and you’re right. They seemed higher in South than last time I’d looked but I was mistaken.
    Tbf the previous few show them there or thereabouts 2019's score which if tories drop to low 30s will be plemty to gain a dozen or so seats. Im not seeing much evidence of a surge in the blue wall specifically though, just a Tory collapse
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,785
    PB ALERT

    I am in Hartlepool. Quite spectacular really, offshore turbines and pylons towering above the wetlands.

    Any advice? Want me to conduct a vox pop?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605
    Roger said:

    dixiedean said:

    Ken Clarke talking sense about Thatcher era budgets.

    Are there any respected Tories from the Thatcher era or indeed any era who hasn't hit the airways to trash Kwarteng and his budget?

    If you just arrived from Mars you'd be forgiven for wondering why he hasn't been sectioned
    Thatcher herself hasn't.

    Mind you, she has been dead for nine years.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,605
    stjohn said:

    Eabhal said:

    PB ALERT

    I am in Hartlepool. Quite spectacular really, offshore turbines and pylons towering above the wetlands.

    Any advice? Want me to conduct a vox pop?

    Try the avocado dip at the nearest chip shop.
    You moussed be joking.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,315
    Eabhal said:

    PB ALERT

    I am in Hartlepool. Quite spectacular really, offshore turbines and pylons towering above the wetlands.

    Any advice? Want me to conduct a vox pop?

    Don't bring up the subject of monkeys.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,916
    TimS said:

    https://twitter.com/proftimbale/status/1574009363919937537?s=21&t=FVPyZKBOWC5lK6kSEAFYFw

    “Why Liz Truss's and Kwasi Kwarteng's move is so "brave". The four clusters of UK voters. (Source: global.oup.com/academic/produ…, p. 158).“

    I don't think it's brave. They have to create a sense of newness and a clear divide from Labour and the obvious way to do it is on tax. It probably won't work. They'll probably go down to an even bigger defeat at the GE as a consequence of this. But that risk is worth taking and isn't really a risk at all since the alternative of BAU continuity Johnson without Johnson was a surefire loser come the election.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,625
    edited September 2022
    stjohn said:

    Eabhal said:

    PB ALERT

    I am in Hartlepool. Quite spectacular really, offshore turbines and pylons towering above the wetlands.

    Any advice? Want me to conduct a vox pop?

    Try the avocado dip at the nearest chip shop.
    Don’t underestimate Hartlepool.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=j7p8hfaVz6E
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,649
    One potentisl issue with the 'The Sky Is Falling!' Commentary is that when the sky doesnt fall, people may conclude they are talking shit and give 'the plan' a chance. The oerennisl problem with hyperbolic response.
    If sterling reaches dollar parity, for example, the sky will not fall and anyone not going to the States on holiday etc isnt going to automatically tie any ancilluary effects to it, and thus the mini budget.
  • NEW THREAD

  • TazTaz Posts: 6,569
    Dissent at the top of labour. A challenge to leadership position.

    Andy Burnham opposes the penny cut in the rate of income tax.

    https://twitter.com/bloomberguk/status/1574019199789400064?s=21&t=Dw26q3T-8M0Y25VCVdwEdw

  • Rishi for all his many faults was a good media performer.

    Kwasi is dreadful, actually worse than Rachel Reeves by quite a long way.

    The next election will certainly not be won on personalities.

    On first glance I thought the above said "not be won on penalties".

    I suppose the horse trading in the event of a hung parliament is the political equivalent of five spot kicks each.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,013
    ...
    Eabhal said:

    PB ALERT

    I am in Hartlepool. Quite spectacular really, offshore turbines and pylons towering above the wetlands.

    Any advice? Want me to conduct a vox pop?

    If anyone offers you a beer and a curry just say no!
  • Taz said:

    Dissent at the top of labour. A challenge to leadership position.

    Andy Burnham opposes the penny cut in the rate of income tax.

    https://twitter.com/bloomberguk/status/1574019199789400064?s=21&t=Dw26q3T-8M0Y25VCVdwEdw

    Who, really, cares?
This discussion has been closed.