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Is she going to survive 2023? – politicalbetting.com
Is she going to survive 2023? – politicalbetting.com
Over the last few days we have seen a series of policy speeches by Liz truss which seem to set her government on course to be the most right wing one in recent times.
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This on top of all those sold-out flights. The rats are deserting the sinking ship before the captain nails the hold doors shut.
However, this a betting site and others obviously will take a judgement
Well, @Leon was trying to get me killed earlier - with his usual snobbery, it has to be Perrier Jouet at Groucho's before Armageddon.
We urgently need some cooler heads and some sensible thinking - I suspect the Russian aim is to stabilise a line through the winter Such a line keeps them in control of much of the Donbas and the coastal roads down to the Crimea which I'm sure Zelenskyy would like to cut.
Hows that meant to 'resonate'?
I spoke to some deeply ingrained in the Tory party, they say the magic number is 308.
308 is the number of Tory MPs who didn't vote for Liz Truss in the first round.
That is 234 MPs more than the threshold required to trigger a VONC in Liz Truss.
Proportionally she won with a lower percentage than IDS in the MPs final round and with members.
Truss would remove all the Russian soldiers from Ukraine and give Rostov to the Ukrainians, to correct her earlier geography fail.
And Putin would refuse to attend the House because he would have to sit next to people. So he wouldn't last long.
You know, it could work.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/013c1794-39bc-11ed-a8ae-d2d57cd0511a?shareToken=51a1d48dba1fab946e4736fe2dc91d6e
This cheers me up. I mean if Blanchflower thinks it’s going to fall, we can assume it’s on the up…
Sea! Sea! Sea! We're Number One! Sea!
This is precisely why we are on different sides of this debate, I think it is absolutely bonkers to say that.
I would answer your question no, because it depends.
It depends If you explain there are no magic money trees, you can have tax cuts but from money cut from out the education, social care and NHS budgets - the answer there will be NO! We don’t want the tax cut.
It depends if big banks will be celebrating a bumper payday under the tax cut as families have to choose between going cold or hungry, as the poorest only gain a little bit from the type of tax cuts.
Of course people will hear tax cut for all up front, the huge political hit comes later, when spending budgets are cut by stealth and the real winners and losers become known.
These specific tax cuts we are hearing about, if they happen, the answer is No, they won’t be popular or liked over time.
it’s odd you don’t get it, it seems so obvious to me.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rEbvNslOSQ
BTW, see zero evidence that anyone is "rioting" in Russia as opposed to peacefully protesting.
The latest Exacta poll (changes from last December):
GERB/SDS: 26.2% (+3.5)
Change Continues: 18.1% (-7.6)
Socialist Party: 12.5% (+2.3)
Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 10.3% (-2.7)
Revival: 9.5% (+4.6)
Democratic Bulgaria: 7.5% (+1.1)
There is Such a People: 5.4% (-4.1)
Bulgaria Rise: 4% (new)
From December 2021, a coalition of Change Continues, the Socialists, Democratic Bulgaria and There is Such A People effectively kept out Borisov's GERB but There is Such A People left the coalition in June.
Borisov faces the same problem so many other European centre-right political leaders have - while he can best the centre-left parties, the extreme parties outflank him from the right. Revival is anti-EU and anti-western and may be too much even for Borisov - the previous 4-party coalition is polling around 42% which may be enough to form a new administration.
The electoral threshold for representation is 4%.
Why, pray tell?
Time for a new avatar!
But how ridiculous claiming that reversing tax rises so t hat tax is back at levels they were at the last election is going against the manifesto. Erm, what was it the manifesto said about tax last time?
https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1202879393313574912
Wanting people on low and middle incomes to keep more of their money does not remotely go against the manifesto.
https://www.iqair.com/us/air-quality-map?lat=47.568236&lng=-122.308628&zoomLevel=10
Specific cause being BIG forest fire about 50 miles northeast of Seattle.
These tax cuts will be popular.
But does anyone have any news of the cute little dog he was photographed with??
That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.
And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.
The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.
The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/21/uks-mounting-debts-unsustainable-if-sweeping-tax-cuts-go-ahead-warns-ifs-mini-budget
Always liked him the best of all the Doctors. Baker and Tennant were good too, mind.
Possibly it's because I admired his earlier work. He was famous for his comedy, e.g. The Army Game and Carry on Sergeant, and he did it well, especially in The Private's Progress. But the best performance he gave was surely in Brighton Rock, where he was playing straight as a criminal.
Not so sure that there will be a freeze in place through winter
Sunrises HAVE been pretty spectacular. But NOT enough to compensate for long-term health risk.
Have lived in Seattle for over 30 years now, and until a few years ago, forest fire smoke was NEVER an issue.
It sure as hell is now and for foreseeable future.
If the answer is 'yes' then why would you change leader
If the answer is 'no' then who would want the job when you would wait a year and become LOTO?
The only person who might want the job is Boris but would the 40% of MPs who voted against him really let bygones be bygones.?
In which case, don't further reductions risk only benefiting high earners?
Even if Friday's package is right (awfully big if), it risks being repulsive.
Zooming out, Truss has cleverly exploited BoJo's poor behaviour to get a shot at running the country the way she wants, and has since she was a teenage libertarian. Not the way most 2019 voters expected or most Conservative MPs want. Them's the rules.
Problem is that she is a bit of an immovable object. She controls all the buttons, she has the backing of the membership and a party that ditches two PMs in a Parliamentary term will look silly. The only reason to terminate Truss is if things are utterly desperate and it's about saving some of the furniture.
But her approach to government, especially when financial markets give instant feedback, might generate an irresistible force...
Can some tell me what the crowd is chanting?
If there is growth, who benefits? do all parts of the UK benefit equally, or grossly unevenly?
There’s huge flaws in this governments logic and rhetoric.
She will remain leader until and unless one of two conditions are clearly met - first, she is dragging the poll rating of the party down and second, there is a viable alternative who could take over and reverse said decline.
Whether or not you think the first condition will be met, who would meet the second? Ben Wallace, Kemi Badenoch?
Plus a bit of bad weather in January 2025 could upset a few apple carts as voters cannot get to the polls.
But I'm guessing they're not!
The Tories would look ridiculous and divided.
But wait, our public sector debt gets deflated by inflation. Which is why some bonds are index-linked, to compensate for that. So you need to look at it in the round.
Public sector net debt excluding banks and the Bank of England (PSND ex BoE) was £2,069.6 billion at the end of July 2022. Since August 2022 had 9.8% inflation that debt has been deflated by £15.4b in August in real terms.
So £8.2bn of debt interest, but £15.4bn of debt deflation, and in real terms our net debt interest that month was surely negative £7.2bn.
https://order-order.com/2022/09/21/nhs-still-hiring-more-diversity-managers-despite-lizs-promise-to-scrap-woke-jobs/
Though one of the new PUSS's did push unitary through in their area against party policy at the time.
@MrKennethClarke
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1h
Text from Joe Biden:
‘Jeez! She’s like a drunk Margaret Thatcher.’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62983769
And I also expected to cost the Tories 40 seats on its lonesome at the next election. She will be a latter-day Edward Heath.
Besides, a lot of the country is unitary already, isn't it? It's another orange that has already had the juice squeezed out.
I'm too lazy to work it out (too many days doing cover in schools, and it's only blooming September), but how many people live in:
Trad two-tier (district plus country)
Pure unitary councils
Unitiary councils with something above them (London or metro mayoral areas)?
Almost by definition, the first will cover more land area than population.
But it can really screw you up with disaffected party members, which can take an election or two to resolve.
But it wouldn't happen.
Don't blame me, I won't be voting for him.
What is unsustainable debt?
As one of PBs most astute right wing thinkers Bart, is borrowing on this scale today certain going to mean higher taxes in future?
That said, a lot of major cities have which probably would skew the figures as you imply. Equally, that's not where the Tory voters live.
[from 10 hours ago]
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/finland-detects-a-high-number-of-fake-travel-documents-at-its-eastern-border/
The Finnish Border Guard has announced that a high number of fake travel documents have been detected at the country’s eastern border.
In one of its most recent press releases, the Finnish Border Guard revealed that only during a period of ten days, from September 8 until September 18, 2022, they detected a total of 22 fake Belgian residence permits at the easter border, SchengenVisaInfo.com reports.
According to the authorities, the detected fake residence permits were of high quality. Nonetheless, the border inspectors were able to reveal the methods that were used to create them.
“The false residence permit cards were of high quality. Border inspectors specializing in document investigation were able to reveal the forgery methods used, which has made it easier to reveal the wrong document type in cross-border traffic,” the Finnish Border Guard stated.
The Finnish Border Guard explained that those who obtained such fake travel documents were required to pay thousands of euros to the providers. However, the authorities did not give any information about those who issued fake documents
Apart from detecting fake travel documents, the authorities said that they also found fake stamps of different Schengen countries in many passports.
According to the Finnish Border Guard, those who attempted to enter Finland by using fake documents were mainly from the Caucasus region, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and parts of Southern Russia. Furthermore, the same pointed out that they aimed to reach Central Europe. . . .
No it won't mean higher taxes in the future. More growth from lower taxes means more revenues in the future, because the economy has grown and there's more revenues from that.
Plus as I alluded to before, inflation is actually our friend not our foe when it comes to debt to GDP when debt is running at 100% of GDP. Yes we have a deficit, but our debt is being deflated by 9.8% per annum as it stands. Nobody wants to say that out loud at the moment, because everyone is too shit scared of the past to admit the simple truth that there are upsides to having inflation and deflating debt is one of them. Nobody wants to admit that actually a bit of inflation is good for the Treasury, because its the dirty little secret.
"Life repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce." - Marx