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Is she going to survive 2023? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 21 in General
imageIs she going to survive 2023? – politicalbetting.com

Over the last few days we have seen a series of policy speeches by Liz truss which seem to set her government on course to be the most right wing one in recent times.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • kyf_100 said:

    Are *any* of us going to survive 2023?

    if we get there
  • FPT
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another 75bps from the Fed. That won’t go down well in UK and Europe.

    massive pressure now on BoE to raise by 75 points tomorrow- dollar already strongest for a generation
    Yep. The Fed are likely over-reacting to what’s still just about an imported supply shock, but it’s killing everyone on the currency markets. Cable $1.13 today, could go to $1.10 tomorrow if the BoE doesn’t follow up with at least 75bps of their own.
    Not to alarm anybody, but my holiday starts on Friday, and I return to work on the 10th of October.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another 75bps from the Fed. That won’t go down well in UK and Europe.

    massive pressure now on BoE to raise by 75 points tomorrow- dollar already strongest for a generation
    Yep. The Fed are likely over-reacting to what’s still just about an imported supply shock, but it’s killing everyone on the currency markets. Cable $1.13 today, could go to $1.10 tomorrow if the BoE doesn’t follow up with at least 75bps of their own.
    Not to alarm anybody, but my holiday starts on Friday, and I return to work on the 10th of October.
    Are you sure this thread was written by OGH and not by your book?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,745
    Reports of anti-war dissidents being rounded up all over Russia. Meanwhile, and I don't know how much truth there is to this claim, suggestions of queues of traffic tens of miles long at the Russian-Finnish border - apparently the last land border where Russians with Schengen visas can still get out after the Poles and the Balts told them to get knotted.

    This on top of all those sold-out flights. The rats are deserting the sinking ship before the captain nails the hold doors shut.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    Will Putin make it to 2023, is the more pertinent question tonight. Demonstrations ongoing in St. Petersberg and Moscow, among other Russian cities.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 22,950
    Fed trying their best to crash the economy before the mid terms.
  • I really do not see anything but Truss v Starmer in GE 2024

    However, this a betting site and others obviously will take a judgement
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,717
    Evening all :)

    Well, @Leon was trying to get me killed earlier - with his usual snobbery, it has to be Perrier Jouet at Groucho's before Armageddon.

    We urgently need some cooler heads and some sensible thinking - I suspect the Russian aim is to stabilise a line through the winter Such a line keeps them in control of much of the Donbas and the coastal roads down to the Crimea which I'm sure Zelenskyy would like to cut.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378
    What attack as 'extremist' i've not seen one? Nothing on Davey or the Lib Dems twitter feeds, nothing on the Beeb news website
    Hows that meant to 'resonate'?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    It's boom time for retired Americans on holiday
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    I'm confident Truss and Putin will be leaders of Russia and the UK right through 2023.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 103,341
    edited September 21
    ydoethur said:

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another 75bps from the Fed. That won’t go down well in UK and Europe.

    massive pressure now on BoE to raise by 75 points tomorrow- dollar already strongest for a generation
    Yep. The Fed are likely over-reacting to what’s still just about an imported supply shock, but it’s killing everyone on the currency markets. Cable $1.13 today, could go to $1.10 tomorrow if the BoE doesn’t follow up with at least 75bps of their own.
    Not to alarm anybody, but my holiday starts on Friday, and I return to work on the 10th of October.
    Are you sure this thread was written by OGH and not by your book?
    I never write threads based on my book. HONEST.

    I spoke to some deeply ingrained in the Tory party, they say the magic number is 308.

    308 is the number of Tory MPs who didn't vote for Liz Truss in the first round.

    That is 234 MPs more than the threshold required to trigger a VONC in Liz Truss.

    Proportionally she won with a lower percentage than IDS in the MPs final round and with members.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    Pulpstar said:

    It's boom time for retired Americans on holiday

    Why? Have they gone to Crimea?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,823
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm confident Truss and Putin will be leaders of Russia and the UK right through 2023.

    There's a meaningful chance that Putin won't be the leader of Russia at the start of 2023.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm confident Truss and Putin will be leaders of Russia and the UK right through 2023.

    Ok, well that would be an interesting role reversal but might solve the problem.

    Truss would remove all the Russian soldiers from Ukraine and give Rostov to the Ukrainians, to correct her earlier geography fail.

    And Putin would refuse to attend the House because he would have to sit next to people. So he wouldn't last long.

    You know, it could work.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,085
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Well, @Leon was trying to get me killed earlier - with his usual snobbery, it has to be Perrier Jouet at Groucho's before Armageddon.

    We urgently need some cooler heads and some sensible thinking - I suspect the Russian aim is to stabilise a line through the winter Such a line keeps them in control of much of the Donbas and the coastal roads down to the Crimea which I'm sure Zelenskyy would like to cut.

    Lots of talk about the winter but it looks like around Kherson and Crimea the temps don't drop much below zero.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm confident Truss and Putin will be leaders of Russia and the UK right through 2023.

    There's a meaningful chance that Putin won't be the leader of Russia at the start of 2023.
    Are you offering odds ?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,085
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm confident Truss and Putin will be leaders of Russia and the UK right through 2023.

    That way round?
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,085

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm confident Truss and Putin will be leaders of Russia and the UK right through 2023.

    That way round?
    Beaten to it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,011
    edited September 21
    Short the pound, says former rate-setter:

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/013c1794-39bc-11ed-a8ae-d2d57cd0511a?shareToken=51a1d48dba1fab946e4736fe2dc91d6e

    This cheers me up. I mean if Blanchflower thinks it’s going to fall, we can assume it’s on the up…
  • Seattle now has the WORST air quality of any major world city.

    Sea! Sea! Sea! We're Number One! Sea!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,026

    eek said:

    eek said:

    IFS - Truss's plans are completely unsustainable

    https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1572632494750547968

    NEW: In the absence of official scrutiny from
    @OBR_UK
    alongside Friday's announcement, we've provided our own #IFSGreenBudget fiscal forecasts with
    @citibank
    .

    We find that planned tax cuts with stalling economic growth would leave debt on an unsustainable path.

    How does this show the tories are “competent” with the economy. It looks like Truss is about to blow the whole thing up. No idea why - presumably to stick two fingers up to the embedded dogma of the treasury?!
    I think I know why - she's promised her master mates that she will reduce taxes and no matter what the treasury says that is what she is going to do...
    To be honest I think she is highly likely to actually believe she is right about economics and wants to prove it. And she also figures she has nothing to lose. Labour are quite likely to remove the Tory majority at GE 24/5 and if she is wrong and the economy implodes then they get to clear up the mess and only limp on for a couple of years.

    She is convinced and is not prevaricating when asked to justify it

    The fact is tax cuts are very popular and no matter the IFS, OBR, labour and others object she is, as one would say, 'a Lady that is not for turning'

    The truth is we are in uncertain and unpredictable times and it may pay off, as much as it may not, and as I have said previously the result of all this will determine the 2024 election
    “The fact is tax cuts are very popular”

    This is precisely why we are on different sides of this debate, I think it is absolutely bonkers to say that.

    I would answer your question no, because it depends.

    It depends If you explain there are no magic money trees, you can have tax cuts but from money cut from out the education, social care and NHS budgets - the answer there will be NO! We don’t want the tax cut.

    It depends if big banks will be celebrating a bumper payday under the tax cut as families have to choose between going cold or hungry, as the poorest only gain a little bit from the type of tax cuts.

    Of course people will hear tax cut for all up front, the huge political hit comes later, when spending budgets are cut by stealth and the real winners and losers become known.

    These specific tax cuts we are hearing about, if they happen, the answer is No, they won’t be popular or liked over time.

    it’s odd you don’t get it, it seems so obvious to me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    Seattle now has the WORST air quality of any major world city.

    Sea! Sea! Sea! We're Number One! Sea!

    Not that I don't believe you, but that seems hard to believe. Worse than the big cites in Asia?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    FPT

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Another 75bps from the Fed. That won’t go down well in UK and Europe.

    massive pressure now on BoE to raise by 75 points tomorrow- dollar already strongest for a generation
    Yep. The Fed are likely over-reacting to what’s still just about an imported supply shock, but it’s killing everyone on the currency markets. Cable $1.13 today, could go to $1.10 tomorrow if the BoE doesn’t follow up with at least 75bps of their own.
    Not to alarm anybody, but my holiday starts on Friday, and I return to work on the 10th of October.
    Have fun! I’m on holiday next week too, will be sitting on a beach in the middle of nowhere without wifi for six days, so no PB photos of all the cocktails!
  • Cops in Moscow (as viewed on live feed) staring to get nasty.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rEbvNslOSQ

    BTW, see zero evidence that anyone is "rioting" in Russia as opposed to peacefully protesting.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 634
    edited September 21
    If Truss gets ousted, then it won't be till after the coronation. And it'd probably be too late by the end of next year. Which only leaves a window of May-August next year to oust her, presuming the coronation does happen during Easter. If Truss gets to next September, she's fighting the next election.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,717
    Meanwhile, Bulgaria votes again in 11 days on October 2nd.

    The latest Exacta poll (changes from last December):

    GERB/SDS: 26.2% (+3.5)
    Change Continues: 18.1% (-7.6)
    Socialist Party: 12.5% (+2.3)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 10.3% (-2.7)
    Revival: 9.5% (+4.6)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 7.5% (+1.1)
    There is Such a People: 5.4% (-4.1)
    Bulgaria Rise: 4% (new)

    From December 2021, a coalition of Change Continues, the Socialists, Democratic Bulgaria and There is Such A People effectively kept out Borisov's GERB but There is Such A People left the coalition in June.

    Borisov faces the same problem so many other European centre-right political leaders have - while he can best the centre-left parties, the extreme parties outflank him from the right. Revival is anti-EU and anti-western and may be too much even for Borisov - the previous 4-party coalition is polling around 42% which may be enough to form a new administration.

    The electoral threshold for representation is 4%.
  • If Truss gets ousted, then it won't be till after the coronation. And it'd probably be too late by the end of next year. Which only leaves a window of May-August next year to oust her, presuming the coronation does happen during Easter. If Truss gets to next September, she's fighting the next election.

    "If Truss gets ousted, then it won't be till after the coronation."

    Why, pray tell?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378
    Rayners boyfriend failed to get a single vote in the first two reselection votes in Ilford South. Its over for Tarry
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!
  • Of course she will be.

    But how ridiculous claiming that reversing tax rises so t hat tax is back at levels they were at the last election is going against the manifesto. Erm, what was it the manifesto said about tax last time?

    https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1202879393313574912

    Wanting people on low and middle incomes to keep more of their money does not remotely go against the manifesto.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746

    Seattle now has the WORST air quality of any major world city.

    Sea! Sea! Sea! We're Number One! Sea!

    Worse than Beijing??
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    Cops in Moscow (as viewed on live feed) staring to get nasty.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rEbvNslOSQ

    BTW, see zero evidence that anyone is "rioting" in Russia as opposed to peacefully protesting.

    For a truly heart-stopping moment I thought that said 'coup in Moscow.' Could you please pick your words more carefully?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 9,544
    edited September 21
    RobD said:

    Seattle now has the WORST air quality of any major world city.

    Sea! Sea! Sea! We're Number One! Sea!

    Not that I don't believe you, but that seems hard to believe. Worse than the big cites in Asia?
    Yes. Seattle now 167 air quality index (unhealthy for everyone)

    https://www.iqair.com/us/air-quality-map?lat=47.568236&lng=-122.308628&zoomLevel=10

    Specific cause being BIG forest fire about 50 miles northeast of Seattle.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,595
    stodge said:

    Meanwhile, Bulgaria votes again in 11 days on October 2nd.

    The latest Exacta poll (changes from last December):

    GERB/SDS: 26.2% (+3.5)
    Change Continues: 18.1% (-7.6)
    Socialist Party: 12.5% (+2.3)
    Movement for Rights and Freedoms: 10.3% (-2.7)
    Revival: 9.5% (+4.6)
    Democratic Bulgaria: 7.5% (+1.1)
    There is Such a People: 5.4% (-4.1)
    Bulgaria Rise: 4% (new)

    From December 2021, a coalition of Change Continues, the Socialists, Democratic Bulgaria and There is Such A People effectively kept out Borisov's GERB but There is Such A People left the coalition in June.

    Borisov faces the same problem so many other European centre-right political leaders have - while he can best the centre-left parties, the extreme parties outflank him from the right. Revival is anti-EU and anti-western and may be too much even for Borisov - the previous 4-party coalition is polling around 42% which may be enough to form a new administration.

    The electoral threshold for representation is 4%.

    It seems two things are guaranteed in life, death and Bulgarian General Elections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    RobD said:

    Seattle now has the WORST air quality of any major world city.

    Sea! Sea! Sea! We're Number One! Sea!

    Not that I don't believe you, but that seems hard to believe. Worse than the big cites in Asia?
    Yes. Seattle now 167 air quality index (unhealthy for everyone)

    https://www.iqair.com/us/air-quality-map?lat=47.568236&lng=-122.308628&zoomLevel=10
    Wow, that's amazing. What happened?!
  • Still Liz Truss isn't all bad, her tax cuts will favour the wealthy which is fair as the rich have paid the most, particularly since the GFC.

    These tax cuts will be popular.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,373
    "Health Minister Robert Jenrick has confirmed that Aiden Aslin, who was sentenced to death after being captured by Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine is among those who have been released in a prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia."

    But does anyone have any news of the cute little dog he was photographed with??
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,717
    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Seattle now has the WORST air quality of any major world city.

    Sea! Sea! Sea! We're Number One! Sea!

    Not that I don't believe you, but that seems hard to believe. Worse than the big cites in Asia?
    Yes. Seattle now 167 air quality index (unhealthy for everyone)

    https://www.iqair.com/us/air-quality-map?lat=47.568236&lng=-122.308628&zoomLevel=10
    Wow, that's amazing. What happened?!
    Bolt Creek forest fire.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,085
    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    Patrick Troughton?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Seattle now has the WORST air quality of any major world city.

    Sea! Sea! Sea! We're Number One! Sea!

    Not that I don't believe you, but that seems hard to believe. Worse than the big cites in Asia?
    Yes. Seattle now 167 air quality index (unhealthy for everyone)

    https://www.iqair.com/us/air-quality-map?lat=47.568236&lng=-122.308628&zoomLevel=10
    Wow, that's amazing. What happened?!
    Bolt Creek forest fire.
    Ahh, okay. Well enjoy the post-apocalyptic sunsets!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347

    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    Patrick Troughton?
    Billy Hartnell
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    edited September 21

    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    Patrick Troughton?
    William Hartnell.

    Always liked him the best of all the Doctors. Baker and Tennant were good too, mind.

    Possibly it's because I admired his earlier work. He was famous for his comedy, e.g. The Army Game and Carry on Sergeant, and he did it well, especially in The Private's Progress. But the best performance he gave was surely in Brighton Rock, where he was playing straight as a criminal.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Well, @Leon was trying to get me killed earlier - with his usual snobbery, it has to be Perrier Jouet at Groucho's before Armageddon.

    We urgently need some cooler heads and some sensible thinking - I suspect the Russian aim is to stabilise a line through the winter Such a line keeps them in control of much of the Donbas and the coastal roads down to the Crimea which I'm sure Zelenskyy would like to cut.

    Lots of talk about the winter but it looks like around Kherson and Crimea the temps don't drop much below zero.
    Also, around there, the road networks are quite dense compared to how they were historically, modern military equipment is orders of magnitude better at off road. And winter.

    Not so sure that there will be a freeze in place through winter
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Seattle now has the WORST air quality of any major world city.

    Sea! Sea! Sea! We're Number One! Sea!

    Not that I don't believe you, but that seems hard to believe. Worse than the big cites in Asia?
    Yes. Seattle now 167 air quality index (unhealthy for everyone)

    https://www.iqair.com/us/air-quality-map?lat=47.568236&lng=-122.308628&zoomLevel=10
    Wow, that's amazing. What happened?!
    Bolt Creek forest fire.
    Ahh, okay. Well enjoy the post-apocalyptic sunsets!
    More the sunrise than sunset, as the smoke is coming from the east.

    Sunrises HAVE been pretty spectacular. But NOT enough to compensate for long-term health risk.

    Have lived in Seattle for over 30 years now, and until a few years ago, forest fire smoke was NEVER an issue.

    It sure as hell is now and for foreseeable future.
  • The election will be by Dec 24 at the latest. The only realistic window to replace Truss is next summer. The key question will be "do the Cons still have a realistic chance of winning the next election?"

    If the answer is 'yes' then why would you change leader
    If the answer is 'no' then who would want the job when you would wait a year and become LOTO?

    The only person who might want the job is Boris but would the 40% of MPs who voted against him really let bygones be bygones.?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,373
    stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    Kwasinomics.
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    IFS - Truss's plans are completely unsustainable

    https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1572632494750547968

    NEW: In the absence of official scrutiny from
    @OBR_UK
    alongside Friday's announcement, we've provided our own #IFSGreenBudget fiscal forecasts with
    @citibank
    .

    We find that planned tax cuts with stalling economic growth would leave debt on an unsustainable path.

    How does this show the tories are “competent” with the economy. It looks like Truss is about to blow the whole thing up. No idea why - presumably to stick two fingers up to the embedded dogma of the treasury?!
    I think I know why - she's promised her master mates that she will reduce taxes and no matter what the treasury says that is what she is going to do...
    To be honest I think she is highly likely to actually believe she is right about economics and wants to prove it. And she also figures she has nothing to lose. Labour are quite likely to remove the Tory majority at GE 24/5 and if she is wrong and the economy implodes then they get to clear up the mess and only limp on for a couple of years.

    She is convinced and is not prevaricating when asked to justify it

    The fact is tax cuts are very popular and no matter the IFS, OBR, labour and others object she is, as one would say, 'a Lady that is not for turning'

    The truth is we are in uncertain and unpredictable times and it may pay off, as much as it may not, and as I have said previously the result of all this will determine the 2024 election
    “The fact is tax cuts are very popular”

    This is precisely why we are on different sides of this debate, I think it is absolutely bonkers to say that.

    I would answer your question no, because it depends.

    It depends If you explain there are no magic money trees, you can have tax cuts but from money cut from out the education, social care and NHS budgets - the answer there will be NO! We don’t want the tax cut.

    It depends if big banks will be celebrating a bumper payday under the tax cut as families have to choose between going cold or hungry, as the poorest only gain a little bit from the type of tax cuts.

    Of course people will hear tax cut for all up front, the huge political hit comes later, when spending budgets are cut by stealth and the real winners and losers become known.

    These specific tax cuts we are hearing about, if they happen, the answer is No, they won’t be popular or liked over time.

    it’s odd you don’t get it, it seems so obvious to me.
    Besides, didn't Rishi tweak the NI changes so that low-to-average earners didn't lose out (much) from the increase set to become the HSC levy?

    In which case, don't further reductions risk only benefiting high earners?

    Even if Friday's package is right (awfully big if), it risks being repulsive.

    Zooming out, Truss has cleverly exploited BoJo's poor behaviour to get a shot at running the country the way she wants, and has since she was a teenage libertarian. Not the way most 2019 voters expected or most Conservative MPs want. Them's the rules.

    Problem is that she is a bit of an immovable object. She controls all the buttons, she has the backing of the membership and a party that ditches two PMs in a Parliamentary term will look silly. The only reason to terminate Truss is if things are utterly desperate and it's about saving some of the furniture.

    But her approach to government, especially when financial markets give instant feedback, might generate an irresistible force...
  • Amazing scene from Moscow via live feed.

    Can some tell me what the crowd is chanting?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    The election will be by Dec 24 at the latest. The only realistic window to replace Truss is next summer. The key question will be "do the Cons still have a realistic chance of winning the next election?"

    If the answer is 'yes' then why would you change leader
    If the answer is 'no' then who would want the job when you would wait a year and become LOTO?

    The only person who might want the job is Boris but would the 40% of MPs who voted against him really let bygones be bygones.?

    It can be as late as January 2025. Why would it be 24/12 next year?
  • The election will be by Dec 24 at the latest. The only realistic window to replace Truss is next summer. The key question will be "do the Cons still have a realistic chance of winning the next election?"

    If the answer is 'yes' then why would you change leader
    If the answer is 'no' then who would want the job when you would wait a year and become LOTO?

    The only person who might want the job is Boris but would the 40% of MPs who voted against him really let bygones be bygones.?

    Depends, say next September Truss and the Tories are polling in the toilet and a hypothetical poll shows the Tories winning the most votes if Boris Johnson was Tory leader/PM again, then bygones will be bygones.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,026
    biggles said:

    eek said:

    IFS - Truss's plans are completely unsustainable

    https://twitter.com/TheIFS/status/1572632494750547968

    NEW: In the absence of official scrutiny from
    @OBR_UK
    alongside Friday's announcement, we've provided our own #IFSGreenBudget fiscal forecasts with
    @citibank
    .

    We find that planned tax cuts with stalling economic growth would leave debt on an unsustainable path.

    No fan of the Truss approach, but presumably she would say “but that’s the point - we won’t have stalled growth”. And at a top level, she’ll be right. The totality of what she’s up to, plus the efforts of other allied counties, will see our growth rate do better and she’ll say “told you so”.
    There is nothing about economics that is as straightforward as you and Truss are saying it. For example, You don’t so easily tax cut your way to growth. Growth comes only from investment, investment in people, upskilling, infrastructure - you can’t guarantee tax cuts for industry or business trickles down to these things and growth.

    If there is growth, who benefits? do all parts of the UK benefit equally, or grossly unevenly?

    There’s huge flaws in this governments logic and rhetoric.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,085
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    Patrick Troughton?
    William Hartnell.

    Always liked him the best of all the Doctors. Baker and Tennant were good too, mind.

    Possibly it's because I admired his earlier work. He was famous for his comedy, e.g. The Army Game and Carry on Sergeant, and he did it well, especially in The Private's Progress. But the best performance he gave was surely in Brighton Rock, where he was playing straight as a criminal.
    It was Jon Pertwee by the time we had a telly.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 10,717
    The rules for Liz Truss are the same as they are for every Conservative leader.

    She will remain leader until and unless one of two conditions are clearly met - first, she is dragging the poll rating of the party down and second, there is a viable alternative who could take over and reverse said decline.

    Whether or not you think the first condition will be met, who would meet the second? Ben Wallace, Kemi Badenoch?
  • ydoethur said:

    The election will be by Dec 24 at the latest. The only realistic window to replace Truss is next summer. The key question will be "do the Cons still have a realistic chance of winning the next election?"

    If the answer is 'yes' then why would you change leader
    If the answer is 'no' then who would want the job when you would wait a year and become LOTO?

    The only person who might want the job is Boris but would the 40% of MPs who voted against him really let bygones be bygones.?

    It can be as late as January 2025. Why would it be 24/12 next year?
    Because a January 2025 election requires a campaign to straddle Christmas and the New Year, that will be very unpopular with the voters.

    Plus a bit of bad weather in January 2025 could upset a few apple carts as voters cannot get to the polls.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    If Truss left would anyone really miss her? Brutal, but I fear true.
  • Amazing scene from Moscow via live feed.

    Can some tell me what the crowd is chanting?

    They are chanting 'pineapple does not belong on pizza.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    Amazing scene from Moscow via live feed.

    Can some tell me what the crowd is chanting?

    If they really wanted to troll Putin (and probably get shot) they should chant 'Sluga naroda.'

    But I'm guessing they're not!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    ydoethur said:

    The election will be by Dec 24 at the latest. The only realistic window to replace Truss is next summer. The key question will be "do the Cons still have a realistic chance of winning the next election?"

    If the answer is 'yes' then why would you change leader
    If the answer is 'no' then who would want the job when you would wait a year and become LOTO?

    The only person who might want the job is Boris but would the 40% of MPs who voted against him really let bygones be bygones.?

    It can be as late as January 2025. Why would it be 24/12 next year?
    Because a January 2025 election requires a campaign to straddle Christmas and the New Year, that will be very unpopular with the voters.

    Plus a bit of bad weather in January 2025 could upset a few apple carts as voters cannot get to the polls.
    That still leaves the whole of 2024.
  • The election will be by Dec 24 at the latest. The only realistic window to replace Truss is next summer. The key question will be "do the Cons still have a realistic chance of winning the next election?"

    If the answer is 'yes' then why would you change leader
    If the answer is 'no' then who would want the job when you would wait a year and become LOTO?

    The only person who might want the job is Boris but would the 40% of MPs who voted against him really let bygones be bygones.?

    Depends, say next September Truss and the Tories are polling in the toilet and a hypothetical poll shows the Tories winning the most votes if Boris Johnson was Tory leader/PM again, then bygones will be bygones.
    I still don't see it. Kevin Rudd came back but that was after 3 years and a election (and Labor still lost).

    The Tories would look ridiculous and divided.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    Patrick Troughton?
    William Hartnell.

    Always liked him the best of all the Doctors. Baker and Tennant were good too, mind.

    Possibly it's because I admired his earlier work. He was famous for his comedy, e.g. The Army Game and Carry on Sergeant, and he did it well, especially in The Private's Progress. But the best performance he gave was surely in Brighton Rock, where he was playing straight as a criminal.
    It was Jon Pertwee by the time we had a telly.
    It was Peter Davison by the time I was born! I only came to Doctor Who through DVDs and repeats, and of all the ones I have seen I still like William Hartnell the best albeit I have a huge collection of Tom Baker and David Tennant.
  • stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    The trouble is that there's virtually nothing left to cut for many councils. 2010 austerity saw to that. And council tax rises are capped, so that's not much of an option either.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,026
    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    I always knew you were a doctor at large.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,850
    Cookie said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Leicester Muslim-Hindu clashes spread to Smethwick as masked mob descend on temple

    Video shows up to 200 masked and hooded men gathered outside a Hindu temple near Birmingham, shouting 'Allahu akbar'" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/21/leicester-muslim-hindu-clashes-spread-smethwick/

    So looks like we will be having a mini India Pakistan conflict in our biggest Midlands cities and maybe even beyond over the next few days
    Congratulations to everyone on the British Left from 1960-2020. Good work
    *rubbing the right's nose in diversity* - I think they'll be very pleased with the outcome.
    Out of curiousity, I've just googled this individual - he now works as a communications officer for TfL dealing with air quality.
    I sometimes wonder whether we need to do what the US does with quotas for different nationalities for some visas, to ensure integration happens. The theory is that if people all come from different backgrounds they are more likely to intermix into the host culture.

    A really smart way to do it would be to base it on levels of integration, from statistics on concentration of where people live or levels of mixed marriage. If you are from a group like Thais or Poles that have become part of the melting pot, we can sustain more immigration. If you are from a group that forms its own enclaves and only marries their own, we might need a cooling off period before more come.
    One thing that 1st generation immigrants in my own family have commented on, is that they have felt the "Keep your own culture" thing as coming across as "Brits only can be Brits".

    They came here to become British. Not to be an ethnic enclave.
    Yes, this is the sensible middle way. What unites us is more important than what divides us. We have to reject the hard right view that different ethnic groups should live separate lives in separate countries and the hard left view that different ethnic groups should live separate lives in separate communities.

    Integration, integration, integration. You could win a general election on that sort of message, if done tactfully.
    The Norwegians have an excellent record on integration. They have strict rules on immigrants learning the language and taking exams in culture and history of Norway. When I worked there, settlement rights (not even citizenship) required 200 hours of compulsory classes. They work very, very hard to prevent enclaves forming and are extremely successful at it.
    In Denmark, which has a similar system, there are still issues. According to a friend who is going through the process, a number of people go

    - this is too hard
    - I won’t do it
    - It’s racist that I have less rights
    - I hate this society
    - Etc etc
    No citizenship for those who cannot use 'less' amd 'fewer' the right way around.
    Double citizenship for those who use it in any way so long as it is comprehensible.
  • Moscow cops now starting to beat up on selected protesters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    The trouble is that there's virtually nothing left to cut for many councils. 2010 austerity saw to that. And council tax rises are capped, so that's not much of an option either.
    Councils themselves will be cut. Expect Truss' great legacy to be that the whole of England is unitary, and that every Tory voter hates her guts for it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,850

    stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    The trouble is that there's virtually nothing left to cut for many councils. 2010 austerity saw to that. And council tax rises are capped, so that's not much of an option either.
    Yes, local councils actually cut a lot more effectively than most other areas, probably because there was waste and nobody gives a crap about it. But there is no longer a massive untapped amount to cut. And they may find recruitment more difficult anyway as they no longer have more flexibility than other employers.
  • stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    Controversial opinion but £8.2bn of debt interest payments would in normal circumstances be an utter horror show but it is quite frankly irrelevant at the minute, because the only reason its being made is index-linked payments because of inflation.

    But wait, our public sector debt gets deflated by inflation. Which is why some bonds are index-linked, to compensate for that. So you need to look at it in the round.

    Public sector net debt excluding banks and the Bank of England (PSND ex BoE) was £2,069.6 billion at the end of July 2022. Since August 2022 had 9.8% inflation that debt has been deflated by £15.4b in August in real terms.

    So £8.2bn of debt interest, but £15.4bn of debt deflation, and in real terms our net debt interest that month was surely negative £7.2bn.
  • stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    The trouble is that there's virtually nothing left to cut for many councils. 2010 austerity saw to that. And council tax rises are capped, so that's not much of an option either.
    Re Diversity officers:

    https://order-order.com/2022/09/21/nhs-still-hiring-more-diversity-managers-despite-lizs-promise-to-scrap-woke-jobs/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,850
    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    The trouble is that there's virtually nothing left to cut for many councils. 2010 austerity saw to that. And council tax rises are capped, so that's not much of an option either.
    Councils themselves will be cut. Expect Truss' great legacy to be that the whole of England is unitary, and that every Tory voter hates her guts for it.
    I'd admire her guts if she did that, as more unitaries is a great idea, but this government ran scared of the shires before, would it really cut all those districts?

    Though one of the new PUSS's did push unitary through in their area against party policy at the time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    I always knew you were a doctor at large.
    That would be Barry Evans!
  • "Live" feed from Russia no longer live on link.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,103
    Ken Clarke
    @MrKennethClarke
    ·
    1h
    Text from Joe Biden:

    ‘Jeez! She’s like a drunk Margaret Thatcher.’
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,850
    It seems completely crazy to me on the face of it. I really hope it isn't a case where it really is crazy, but the powers that be assume it has to work because anything that looks crazy must have some sense, else it would not be proposed.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    Truss’ Great British fire sale! Knock down ideological prices, everything must go before Jan 2025.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    Interesting snippet on the Chris Kaba shooting. Buried deep in the BBC report of the family seeing the body cam footage is the gem that they will be stepping back from campaigning about it. Makes you wonder if they’ve seen exactly why he ended up dead, and it’s not the slam dunk, racist police that some want it to be.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62983769
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    The trouble is that there's virtually nothing left to cut for many councils. 2010 austerity saw to that. And council tax rises are capped, so that's not much of an option either.
    Councils themselves will be cut. Expect Truss' great legacy to be that the whole of England is unitary, and that every Tory voter hates her guts for it.
    I'd admire her guts if she did that, as more unitaries is a great idea, but this government ran scared of the shires before, would it really cut all those districts?

    Though one of the new PUSS's did push unitary through in their area against party policy at the time.
    Looks to me like they will have no financial choice, given every local authority in the land is already in the deepest of deep shit financially. Things are only getting worse not better, There is no obvious alternative to cutting the number of councils and therefore cutting the overall cost of councillors and their staff.

    And I also expected to cost the Tories 40 seats on its lonesome at the next election. She will be a latter-day Edward Heath.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,776
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    Patrick Troughton?
    William Hartnell.

    Always liked him the best of all the Doctors. Baker and Tennant were good too, mind.

    Possibly it's because I admired his earlier work. He was famous for his comedy, e.g. The Army Game and Carry on Sergeant, and he did it well, especially in The Private's Progress. But the best performance he gave was surely in Brighton Rock, where he was playing straight as a criminal.
    It was Jon Pertwee by the time we had a telly.
    It was Peter Davison by the time I was born! I only came to Doctor Who through DVDs and repeats, and of all the ones I have seen I still like William Hartnell the best albeit I have a huge collection of Tom Baker and David Tennant.
    Loving your new profile picture.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,850
    Sandpit said:

    Will Putin make it to 2023, is the more pertinent question tonight. Demonstrations ongoing in St. Petersberg and Moscow, among other Russian cities.

    He'll outlive us all.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,776
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    I always knew you were a doctor at large.
    That would be Barry Evans!
    Or Dirk Bogarde !
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,373

    Interesting snippet on the Chris Kaba shooting. Buried deep in the BBC report of the family seeing the body cam footage is the gem that they will be stepping back from campaigning about it. Makes you wonder if they’ve seen exactly why he ended up dead, and it’s not the slam dunk, racist police that some want it to be.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62983769

    "Buried deep"? You mean at the end of one screenful of text? You don't read a lot, presumably.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    If Truss wanted to send us (or our kids) to Ukraine would you go or protest?
  • ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    The trouble is that there's virtually nothing left to cut for many councils. 2010 austerity saw to that. And council tax rises are capped, so that's not much of an option either.
    Councils themselves will be cut. Expect Truss' great legacy to be that the whole of England is unitary, and that every Tory voter hates her guts for it.
    That's how it could be hidden- though local government reorganisations aren't known for being quick or cheap.

    Besides, a lot of the country is unitary already, isn't it? It's another orange that has already had the juice squeezed out.

    I'm too lazy to work it out (too many days doing cover in schools, and it's only blooming September), but how many people live in:

    Trad two-tier (district plus country)
    Pure unitary councils
    Unitiary councils with something above them (London or metro mayoral areas)?

    Almost by definition, the first will cover more land area than population.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,850
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    The trouble is that there's virtually nothing left to cut for many councils. 2010 austerity saw to that. And council tax rises are capped, so that's not much of an option either.
    Councils themselves will be cut. Expect Truss' great legacy to be that the whole of England is unitary, and that every Tory voter hates her guts for it.
    I'd admire her guts if she did that, as more unitaries is a great idea, but this government ran scared of the shires before, would it really cut all those districts?

    Though one of the new PUSS's did push unitary through in their area against party policy at the time.
    Looks to me like they will have no financial choice, given every local authority in the land is already in the deepest of deep shit financially. Things are only getting worse not better, There is no obvious alternative to cutting the number of councils and therefore cutting the overall cost of councillors and their staff.

    And I also expected to cost the Tories 40 seats on its lonesome at the next election. She will be a latter-day Edward Heath.
    Thing is, people don't give a shit about who their local council is or what it does, until you propose to remove it, when suddenly they care. Push through it in a relatively sensible way and it will be more efficient, and no less effective in representation, and most normal people will be fine.

    But it can really screw you up with disaffected party members, which can take an election or two to resolve.
  • Jonathan said:

    If Truss wanted to send us (or our kids) to Ukraine would you go or protest?

    Since its a defensive war, not an offensive one, if called I would serve.

    But it wouldn't happen.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180

    Interesting snippet on the Chris Kaba shooting. Buried deep in the BBC report of the family seeing the body cam footage is the gem that they will be stepping back from campaigning about it. Makes you wonder if they’ve seen exactly why he ended up dead, and it’s not the slam dunk, racist police that some want it to be.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62983769

    Not by the colour of his skin but by the content of his criminal record.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    Chris said:

    Interesting snippet on the Chris Kaba shooting. Buried deep in the BBC report of the family seeing the body cam footage is the gem that they will be stepping back from campaigning about it. Makes you wonder if they’ve seen exactly why he ended up dead, and it’s not the slam dunk, racist police that some want it to be.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-62983769

    "Buried deep"? You mean at the end of one screenful of text? You don't read a lot, presumably.
    Well it wasn’t the lead of the piece was it, and it possibly should be. If as I am suggesting they have seen what really happened and that is not what the marching and campaigning has been representing, then that should be the lead.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829

    I really do not see anything but Truss v Starmer in GE 2024

    However, this a betting site and others obviously will take a judgement

    BORIS v Starmer and a BORIS landslide!

    Don't blame me, I won't be voting for him.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,026

    Of course she will be.

    But how ridiculous claiming that reversing tax rises so t hat tax is back at levels they were at the last election is going against the manifesto. Erm, what was it the manifesto said about tax last time?

    https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1202879393313574912

    Wanting people on low and middle incomes to keep more of their money does not remotely go against the manifesto.

    How ridiculous is saying “ We find that planned tax cuts with stalling economic growth would leave debt on an unsustainable path”?

    What is unsustainable debt?

    As one of PBs most astute right wing thinkers Bart, is borrowing on this scale today certain going to mean higher taxes in future?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,793
    edited September 21

    Jonathan said:

    If Truss wanted to send us (or our kids) to Ukraine would you go or protest?

    Since its a defensive war, not an offensive one, if called I would serve.

    But it wouldn't happen.
    Fingers crossed. It’s an interesting question. I’m honestly sure what I would do. You have to feel for those Russian kids who sooner or later will be sucked into the mincing machine.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    ydoethur said:

    stodge said:

    We paid out £8.2 billion in debt interest repayments in August - that puts us well on course for £100 billion in the next year.

    That's £100 billion we won't be able to spend on defence, Police or the NHS as examples.

    And yet, with interest rates set to rise, we are going to borrow even more which will be left to those who come after us to resolve. Truss's economics are, like so many other politicians, more about the preservation of Liz Truss in office than what is actually good for the country.

    The other side of this is what is the message going to be on public spending - are tax cuts going to be accompanied by spending "reviews" (there really aren't as many Diversity and Equality officers as JRM thinks). I suspect the weight of cuts will fall on local councils rather than the NHS and defence for example.

    The fact of course Council Tax will need to rise while other taxes fall may mean many of us don't see Kwarteng's "golden bonanza".

    The trouble is that there's virtually nothing left to cut for many councils. 2010 austerity saw to that. And council tax rises are capped, so that's not much of an option either.
    Councils themselves will be cut. Expect Truss' great legacy to be that the whole of England is unitary, and that every Tory voter hates her guts for it.
    That's how it could be hidden- though local government reorganisations aren't known for being quick or cheap.

    Besides, a lot of the country is unitary already, isn't it? It's another orange that has already had the juice squeezed out.

    I'm too lazy to work it out (too many days doing cover in schools, and it's only blooming September), but how many people live in:

    Trad two-tier (district plus country)
    Pure unitary councils
    Unitiary councils with something above them (London or metro mayoral areas)?

    Almost by definition, the first will cover more land area than population.
    I think it's a very surprisingly large number - in fact comparatively few Shire counties have fully converted to unitaries.

    That said, a lot of major cities have which probably would skew the figures as you imply. Equally, that's not where the Tory voters live.
  • Finland Detects a High Number of Fake Travel Documents at Its Eastern Border
    [from 10 hours ago]

    https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/finland-detects-a-high-number-of-fake-travel-documents-at-its-eastern-border/

    The Finnish Border Guard has announced that a high number of fake travel documents have been detected at the country’s eastern border.

    In one of its most recent press releases, the Finnish Border Guard revealed that only during a period of ten days, from September 8 until September 18, 2022, they detected a total of 22 fake Belgian residence permits at the easter border, SchengenVisaInfo.com reports.

    According to the authorities, the detected fake residence permits were of high quality. Nonetheless, the border inspectors were able to reveal the methods that were used to create them.

    “The false residence permit cards were of high quality. Border inspectors specializing in document investigation were able to reveal the forgery methods used, which has made it easier to reveal the wrong document type in cross-border traffic,” the Finnish Border Guard stated.

    The Finnish Border Guard explained that those who obtained such fake travel documents were required to pay thousands of euros to the providers. However, the authorities did not give any information about those who issued fake documents

    Apart from detecting fake travel documents, the authorities said that they also found fake stamps of different Schengen countries in many passports.

    According to the Finnish Border Guard, those who attempted to enter Finland by using fake documents were mainly from the Caucasus region, which includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and parts of Southern Russia. Furthermore, the same pointed out that they aimed to reach Central Europe. . . .

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    kle4 said:

    It seems completely crazy to me on the face of it. I really hope it isn't a case where it really is crazy, but the powers that be assume it has to work because anything that looks crazy must have some sense, else it would not be proposed.
    Could be bitter about New Labour taking some of the credit for the claimed "golden inheritance" left by Ken Clarke, and deciding to salt the earth for an incoming Labour government.
  • Of course she will be.

    But how ridiculous claiming that reversing tax rises so t hat tax is back at levels they were at the last election is going against the manifesto. Erm, what was it the manifesto said about tax last time?

    https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/1202879393313574912

    Wanting people on low and middle incomes to keep more of their money does not remotely go against the manifesto.

    How ridiculous is saying “ We find that planned tax cuts with stalling economic growth would leave debt on an unsustainable path”?

    What is unsustainable debt?

    As one of PBs most astute right wing thinkers Bart, is borrowing on this scale today certain going to mean higher taxes in future?
    Its utterly ridiculous, the IFS is a joke with that statement.

    No it won't mean higher taxes in the future. More growth from lower taxes means more revenues in the future, because the economy has grown and there's more revenues from that.

    Plus as I alluded to before, inflation is actually our friend not our foe when it comes to debt to GDP when debt is running at 100% of GDP. Yes we have a deficit, but our debt is being deflated by 9.8% per annum as it stands. Nobody wants to say that out loud at the moment, because everyone is too shit scared of the past to admit the simple truth that there are upsides to having inflation and deflating debt is one of them. Nobody wants to admit that actually a bit of inflation is good for the Treasury, because its the dirty little secret.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    Patrick Troughton?
    William Hartnell.

    Always liked him the best of all the Doctors. Baker and Tennant were good too, mind.

    Possibly it's because I admired his earlier work. He was famous for his comedy, e.g. The Army Game and Carry on Sergeant, and he did it well, especially in The Private's Progress. But the best performance he gave was surely in Brighton Rock, where he was playing straight as a criminal.
    It was Jon Pertwee by the time we had a telly.
    It was Peter Davison by the time I was born! I only came to Doctor Who through DVDs and repeats, and of all the ones I have seen I still like William Hartnell the best albeit I have a huge collection of Tom Baker and David Tennant.
    The first episode was bookended by the murders of JFK the day before and Lee Harvey Oswald the day after. Traipsing to the rugby field on Monday morning (we had a brutal timetable that year) all the talk was of Doctor Who.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636
    edited September 21



    Its utterly ridiculous, the IFS is a joke with that statement.

    No it won't mean higher taxes in the future. More growth from lower taxes means more revenues in the future, because the economy has grown and there's more revenues from that.

    Plus as I alluded to before, inflation is actually our friend not our foe when it comes to debt to GDP when debt is running at 100% of GDP. Yes we have a deficit, but our debt is being deflated by 9.8% per annum as it stands. Nobody wants to say that out loud at the moment, because everyone is too shit scared of the past to admit the simple truth that there are upsides to having inflation and deflating debt is one of them. Nobody wants to admit that actually a bit of inflation is good for the Treasury, because its the dirty little secret.

    Well, comrade, I have friends in Momentum who said all that in 2017 and again in 2019 in support of John McDonnell's financial plans.

    "Life repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce." - Marx
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 427
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Truss is taking us back sixty years.

    Time for a new avatar!

    Patrick Troughton?
    William Hartnell.

    Always liked him the best of all the Doctors. Baker and Tennant were good too, mind.

    Possibly it's because I admired his earlier work. He was famous for his comedy, e.g. The Army Game and Carry on Sergeant, and he did it well, especially in The Private's Progress. But the best performance he gave was surely in Brighton Rock, where he was playing straight as a criminal.
    It was Jon Pertwee by the time we had a telly.
    It was Peter Davison by the time I was born! I only came to Doctor Who through DVDs and repeats, and of all the ones I have seen I still like William Hartnell the best albeit I have a huge collection of Tom Baker and David Tennant.
    Troughton ftw. For 'The War Games' if no other. Tom a close 2nd though.
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