Is Biden going to run again? – politicalbetting.com

System

Is Biden going to run again? – politicalbetting.com

The visit of Joe Biden to the UK for the funeral of the Queen has prompted me to do a piece that I’ve been meaning to write for some weeks – is the incumbent President who will be 80 in November going to put his hat into the ring for the 2024 presidential race?

Read the full story here

gettingbetter

He is doing OK so far but another term defies common sense.

BartholomewRoberts

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Scott_xP

Should have been on the previous thread, but nobody would see it...

Just what’s going on here?

https://twitter.com/LouisHenwood/status/1571890023661699074/video/1

RobD

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

But the roles are quite different, so I am not sure the comparison is valid.

RobD

Scott_xP said:

Should have been on the previous thread, but nobody would see it...

Just what’s going on here?

https://twitter.com/LouisHenwood/status/1571890023661699074/video/1

"Clearly"?

BartholomewRoberts

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

But the roles are quite different, so I am not sure the comparison is valid.

If 80 is too old to run for election, you would think it might also be too old to be Monarch?

Which is kind of an issue, because we're unlikely to ever get a young Monarch again, given the nature of life expectancy nowadays, the Monarch is always likely to be at least septuagenarian or older.

RobD

BartholomewRoberts said:

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

But the roles are quite different, so I am not sure the comparison is valid.

If 80 is too old to run for election, you would think it might also be too old to be Monarch?

Which is kind of an issue, because we're unlikely to ever get a young Monarch again, given the nature of life expectancy nowadays, the Monarch is always likely to be at least septuagenarian or older.

I didn't say he was too old, I was just saying the roles are very different. I suspect Biden has to work a lot harder than Charles.

Big_G_NorthWales

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

HYUFD

The latest RedfieldWilton poll has Biden leading Trump 43% to 40% but Trump leading Harris 42% to 40%. If those numbers hold Biden might run again despite his age. Harris may be too Woke for middle America.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1570839616940539904?s=20&t=5Fr8dRaZYwGEEe9uyyAdgw

The midterms I agree will be a mixed picture, the Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate

BartholomewRoberts

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

But the roles are quite different, so I am not sure the comparison is valid.

If 80 is too old to run for election, you would think it might also be too old to be Monarch?

Which is kind of an issue, because we're unlikely to ever get a young Monarch again, given the nature of life expectancy nowadays, the Monarch is always likely to be at least septuagenarian or older.

I didn't say he was too old, I was just saying the roles are very different. I suspect Biden has to work a lot harder than Charles.

Oh I know you didn't say he was too old, but many here have said it and OGH implied it at least in the thread header, which is why I made the point.

Its interesting that many people are very quick to say that Biden is too old, and were saying it before he was even the nominee in 2020, but that Charles is almost exactly the same age that Biden was when he was first inaugurated.

HYUFD

BartholomewRoberts said:

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

But the roles are quite different, so I am not sure the comparison is valid.

If 80 is too old to run for election, you would think it might also be too old to be Monarch?

Which is kind of an issue, because we're unlikely to ever get a young Monarch again, given the nature of life expectancy nowadays, the Monarch is always likely to be at least septuagenarian or older.

If Charles dies in his late 80s, still slightly above UK average life expectancy, or abdicated then at that
age like Pope Benedict then William would become King in his 50s.

RobD

BartholomewRoberts said:

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

But the roles are quite different, so I am not sure the comparison is valid.

If 80 is too old to run for election, you would think it might also be too old to be Monarch?

Which is kind of an issue, because we're unlikely to ever get a young Monarch again, given the nature of life expectancy nowadays, the Monarch is always likely to be at least septuagenarian or older.

I didn't say he was too old, I was just saying the roles are very different. I suspect Biden has to work a lot harder than Charles.

Oh I know you didn't say he was too old, but many here have said it and OGH implied it at least in the thread header, which is why I made the point.

Its interesting that many people are very quick to say that Biden is too old, and were saying it before he was even the nominee in 2020, but that Charles is almost exactly the same age that Biden was when he was first inaugurated.

But I don't think it's particularly interesting because the roles are different. The president is the political leader of the nation, which is not the case for Charles. He's (now) more of a symbol. A more pertinent question would be would we be saying the same about a party leader who is soon to be 80?

stodge

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

But the roles are quite different, so I am not sure the comparison is valid.

If 80 is too old to run for election, you would think it might also be too old to be Monarch?

Which is kind of an issue, because we're unlikely to ever get a young Monarch again, given the nature of life expectancy nowadays, the Monarch is always likely to be at least septuagenarian or older.

If Charles dies in his late 80s, still slightly above UK average life expectancy, or abdicated then at that
age like Pope Benedict then William would become King in his 50s

It will be interesting to see if either Charles or William have a different attitude to abdication than their late mother and grandmother respectively. Given Philip lived to nearly 100, you couldn't rule out either Charles or William living well into their 90s.

RobD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

Don't play coy with us, we know you are only 18.

HYUFD

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

But the roles are quite different, so I am not sure the comparison is valid.

If 80 is too old to run for election, you would think it might also be too old to be Monarch?

Which is kind of an issue, because we're unlikely to ever get a young Monarch again, given the nature of life expectancy nowadays, the Monarch is always likely to be at least septuagenarian or older.

If Charles dies in his late 80s, still slightly above UK average life expectancy, or abdicated then at that
age like Pope Benedict then William would become King in his 50s

It will be interesting to see if either Charles or William have a different attitude to abdication than their late mother and grandmother respectively. Given Philip lived to nearly 100, you couldn't rule out either Charles or William living well into their 90s.

Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands handed over to her son in her late 70s, likewise King Juan Carlos of Spain.

I doubt Charles or William will reign to death like their mother and grandmother if they live past 85. Pope John Paul II who was born in the same era as the Queen may well also prove to have been the last Pope to serve until death as well

SeanT

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

EVERYBODY has aged in the last few years

I don’t mean that flippantly, I mean it sincerely. Covid, and the war and the rest, have aged - at an accelerated pace - almost every adult I know

“Half a decade in 2 years” seems to be the median estimate

solarflare

Running seems optimistic for Biden. I could definitely see him shuffling for President again.

Big_G_NorthWales

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

Don't play coy with us, we know you are only 18.

Actually only 18 month off 20

Pulpstar

I hope he does as I am for about 3 ton at 2-1 or so

Richard_Tyndall

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

Malmesbury

HYUFD said:

The latest RedfieldWilton poll has Biden leading Trump 43% to 40% but Trump leading Harris 42% to 40%. If those numbers hold Biden might run again despite his age. Harris may be too Woke for middle America.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1570839616940539904?s=20&t=5Fr8dRaZYwGEEe9uyyAdgw

The midterms I agree will be a mixed picture, the Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate

Harris is a former DA, who built her political career on sending black men to prison in large numbers. Some under…. Interesting circumstances.

She is less “woke” than Biden - which is part of her problems within the Democratic Party.

Luckyguy1983

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

Big_G_NorthWales

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

It is true that the opposition were all opposed to Sunak's NI increase so it is hypocrisy if they criticise the removal of the increase now

state_go_away

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you woudl be taxed NI twice on the same income.It woudl become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Jim_Miller

An Oxford graduate -- conservative columnist George Will -- has a suggestion for an alternative: "Neither party can responsibly participate in presenting the nation in 2024 with a spirit-crushing Biden-Trump 2.0. The Democrats’ dilemma is especially difficult because Biden’s vice president is an incontinent producer of word salads who suffers from deficits of political talent and policy substance.
. . .
Colorado’s Gov. Jared Polis is artistic in his rhetorical avoidance of presidential politics: The mere mention of it produces a Jackson Pollock-style splatter of verbiage about how he thinks, and presumably dreams, always and only about Colorado."
source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/14/democrat-jared-polis-presidential-potential-2024/

But Will thinks Democrats should look hard at Polis.

Before going into politics, Polis made a pile of money with internet companies -- and founded two charter* schools. Oh, and he is married to another man (if that's important to you) and they have two children.

(*Charter schools are difficult for Democratic politicians to back, given the strength of the teacher's unions.)

HYUFD

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

There is no President of New Zealand, their head of state is King Charles, Ardern is their PM

glw

I don't know if Biden is too old, but I do know that all that matters is beating Trump or DeSantis. The Democrats must not screw this up.

Big_G_NorthWales

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you woudl be taxed NI twice on the same income.It woudl become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

NI on working pensioners should be implemented and if it was the decision of a government to apply it to pensioners then it should be, but I doubt any party is likely to go down that road

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

There is no President of New Zealand, their head of state is King Charles, Ardern is their PM

For now

RobD

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

President of New Zealand?

He sat behind of Ardern because she is PM of a Commonwealth realm.

Richard_Tyndall

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you would be taxed NI twice on the same income. It would become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Reading back my coment I wasn't clear. Apologies.

I didn't actually say put it on pensions. Indeed, I got pulled up the other day when we were discussing this because I explicitly excluded pensions and other unearned income.

What I said was put it on pensioners. I was referring to the fact that, currently, anyone past pension age doesn't pay NI if they continue to work. Hence the 'earned income' comment.

All work should attract the same rates of taxation including NI irrespective of the age of the worker.

HYUFD

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

The latest RedfieldWilton poll has Biden leading Trump 43% to 40% but Trump leading Harris 42% to 40%. If those numbers hold Biden might run again despite his age. Harris may be too Woke for middle America.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1570839616940539904?s=20&t=5Fr8dRaZYwGEEe9uyyAdgw

The midterms I agree will be a mixed picture, the Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate

Harris is a former DA, who built her political career on sending black men to prison in large numbers. Some under…. Interesting circumstances.

She is less “woke” than Biden - which is part of her problems within the Democratic Party.

She isn't in terms of gender identity, backing reparations for slavery etc

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1646715/Kamala-Harris-woke-pronouns-video-Sky-News-Australia-latest-vn

https://nypost.com/2019/02/22/kamala-harris-elizabeth-warren-both-support-reparations-for-slavery/

Big_G_NorthWales

Richard_Tyndall said:

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you would be taxed NI twice on the same income. It would become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Reading back my coment I wasn't clear. Apologies.

I didn't actually say put it on pensions. Indeed, I got pulled up the other day when we were discussing this because I explicitly excluded pensions and other unearned income.

What I said was put it on pensioners. I was referring to the fact that, currently, anyone past pension age doesn't pay NI if they continue to work. Hence the 'earned income' comment.

All work should attract the same rates of taxation including NI irrespective of the age of the worker.

I have long since supported that position

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

There is no President of New Zealand, their head of state is King Charles, Ardern is their PM

For now

http://www.republic.org.nz/latestblog/2021/11/17/opinion-poll-44-republic-50-monarchy-after-the-queen

BartholomewRoberts

Richard_Tyndall said:

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you would be taxed NI twice on the same income. It would become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Reading back my coment I wasn't clear. Apologies.

I didn't actually say put it on pensions. Indeed, I got pulled up the other day when we were discussing this because I explicitly excluded pensions and other unearned income.

What I said was put it on pensioners. I was referring to the fact that, currently, anyone past pension age doesn't pay NI if they continue to work. Hence the 'earned income' comment.

All work should attract the same rates of taxation including NI irrespective of the age of the worker.

All earned and unearned income should be taxed at the same rates.

I find it bemusing how some people say that the self-employed shouldn't pay NI because they don't get holiday pay/sick pay etc but NI doesn't pay for any of those. Holiday pay is paid out of the employers labour budget, same as the rest of the employees pay, not by the taxpayer.

SeaShantyIrish2

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

The latest RedfieldWilton poll has Biden leading Trump 43% to 40% but Trump leading Harris 42% to 40%. If those numbers hold Biden might run again despite his age. Harris may be too Woke for middle America.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1570839616940539904?s=20&t=5Fr8dRaZYwGEEe9uyyAdgw

The midterms I agree will be a mixed picture, the Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate

Harris is a former DA, who built her political career on sending black men to prison in large numbers. Some under…. Interesting circumstances.

She is less “woke” than Biden - which is part of her problems within the Democratic Party.

VP Harris's problem is neither her wokeness OR anti-wokeness, but rather her seeming inability to do anything positive for the President OR herself as Veep, except for breaking tie votes and standing in for POTUS occasionally. Her most obvious shortcoming - or failure - pertains to her alleged role with respect to the Border.

Toms

Biden is doing OK. Unlike Trump, for example, he appears to obey the law. And, remember, he's had an awful lot on his hands trying to undo some of trump's damage. My one advice for Biden would be that he should choose a sound vice-presidential running mate. Remember Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman?

Luckyguy1983

RobD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

President of New Zealand?

He sat behind of Ardern because she is PM of a Commonwealth realm.

I am suffering with quite a bad head cold at the moment, so you'll have to forgive more then the odd error.

HYUFD

glw said:

I don't know if Biden is too old, but I do know that all that matters is beating Trump or DeSantis. The Democrats must not screw this up.

Had Biden not Hillary been Democrat candidate in 2016 they might have beaten Trump then too.

Harris could be an even more woke Hillary

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

There is no President of New Zealand, their head of state is King Charles, Ardern is their PM

For now

http://www.republic.org.nz/latestblog/2021/11/17/opinion-poll-44-republic-50-monarchy-after-the-queen

Ardern herself this weekend publicly on British TV openly stated she expects NZ to be a republic in her lifetime

I prefer to believe her opinion, than someone who has not even been to the country let alone lived there

SeaShantyIrish2

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

Better bet is that President of the US has a VERY tight schedule. Also VERY strict security protocols.

IshmaelZ

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/04/it-was-a-brexit-export-champion-now-kent-brewery-has-one-eu-customer-left

"A Kent brewery chosen to help champion export opportunities for the government after Brexit has revealed that burdensome customs checks and paperwork have left it with just one remaining customer in the EU.

The Old Dairy Brewery in Kent – a Department for International Trade export champion for the south-east – appeared in a government video last year promoting the potential to boost Brexit export sales.

However its exports of bottled and keg Kent ale to countries including Italy, Germany and Sweden have slumped since the UK left the EU because of the onerous paperwork.

The brewery now has just one EU customer, a Berlin pub operator who travels to England by van to pick up the beer. The value of the Kent brewery’s annual beer exports have fallen from £600,000 to £2,000."

wow.

HYUFD

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

There is no President of New Zealand, their head of state is King Charles, Ardern is their PM

For now

http://www.republic.org.nz/latestblog/2021/11/17/opinion-poll-44-republic-50-monarchy-after-the-queen

Ardern herself this weekend publicly on British TV openly stated she expects NZ to be a republic in her lifetime

I prefer to believe her opinion, than someone who has not even been to the country let alone lived there

Her lifetime takes us well into the reign of the popular Prince William as King. On current polls her party also trails that of the monarchist leader of the Opposition Christopher Luxon

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

Big_G_NorthWales

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

Better bet is that President of the US has a VERY tight schedule. Also VERY strict security protocols.

Didn't he fly out in immediately after the service in Westminster Abbey?

Big_G_NorthWales

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

It was quite odd. He was raced in, sat near the back, and raced out. I don't believe for a second that the foreign office made him sit behind the President of New Zealand because he refused to travel on the party bus, amusing though that would have been. The best bet must surely be that he's unwell.

There is no President of New Zealand, their head of state is King Charles, Ardern is their PM

For now

http://www.republic.org.nz/latestblog/2021/11/17/opinion-poll-44-republic-50-monarchy-after-the-queen

Ardern herself this weekend publicly on British TV openly stated she expects NZ to be a republic in her lifetime

I prefer to believe her opinion, than someone who has not even been to the country let alone lived there

Her lifetime takes us well into the reign of the popular Prince William as King. On current polls her party also trails that of the monarchist leader of the Opposition Christopher Luxon

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

I simply believe Ardern long before your wittering from somewhere in Epping some 11,500 miles away

Benpointer

SeanT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

EVERYBODY has aged in the last few years

I don’t mean that flippantly, I mean it sincerely. Covid, and the war and the rest, have aged - at an accelerated pace - almost every adult I know

“Half a decade in 2 years” seems to be the median estimate

I feel younger and fitter since retiring 5 years ago tbh. Mainly because I've lost weight, am exercising more, eating healthier (not living in hotels all week), drinking less, and am under less stress.

OTOH I do appear have become considerably smugger. Sorry about that.

rcs1000

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

RobD said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

But the roles are quite different, so I am not sure the comparison is valid.

If 80 is too old to run for election, you would think it might also be too old to be Monarch?

Which is kind of an issue, because we're unlikely to ever get a young Monarch again, given the nature of life expectancy nowadays, the Monarch is always likely to be at least septuagenarian or older.

I didn't say he was too old, I was just saying the roles are very different. I suspect Biden has to work a lot harder than Charles.

Yes: we don't expect our King to do any actual governing.

RobD

Benpointer said:

SeanT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

EVERYBODY has aged in the last few years

I don’t mean that flippantly, I mean it sincerely. Covid, and the war and the rest, have aged - at an accelerated pace - almost every adult I know

“Half a decade in 2 years” seems to be the median estimate

I feel younger and fitter since retiring 5 years ago tbh. Mainly because I've lost weight, am exercising more, eating healthier (not living in hotels all week), drinking less, and am under less stress.

OTOH I do appear have become considerably smugger. Sorry about that.

Glad to hear that. Already looking forward to retirement and it’s many years away!

SeaShantyIrish2

FPT - Methinks about the LAST thing Joe Biden would want to do while in the UK, is jump the queue (not The Queue but the Heads of State line) at QEII's state funeral.

BTW (and FYI) here is a photo taken of the funeral procession behind the casket of the late King Edward VII in 1910, featuring ex-President Theodore Roosevelt at the back of the gaggle of foreign sovereigns and other high dignitaries.

https://www.theodorerooseveltcenter.org/Research/Digital-Library/Record/ImageViewer?libID=o282342

If that was good enough for Teddy Roosevelt, am damn sure it's good enough for Joe Biden. And reckon Joe thinks so too.

Plus TR had to carry his own coat!

Gardenwalker

Richard_Tyndall said:

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you would be taxed NI twice on the same income. It would become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Reading back my coment I wasn't clear. Apologies.

I didn't actually say put it on pensions. Indeed, I got pulled up the other day when we were discussing this because I explicitly excluded pensions and other unearned income.

What I said was put it on pensioners. I was referring to the fact that, currently, anyone past pension age doesn't pay NI if they continue to work. Hence the 'earned income' comment.

All work should attract the same rates of taxation including NI irrespective of the age of the worker.

I agree with what you’re saying here.
Although I would compensate for that (effective) increase by increasing the rates at which income tax cuts in.

Personally I do think income/NI tax rates are at an effective maximum, they should be lower while wealth taxes should be higher.

Jim_Miller

Kamala Harris is an inept politician. When she first ran for California attorney general in 2010, she won the general election by less than a percentage point over the Republican candidate, Steve Cooley (46.1-45.3%).
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_history_of_Kamala_Harris

Granted, 2010 was a Republican year, but that's still poor for a Democrat in California.

(Fun fact: Harris is a member of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco.)

wooliedyed

Jim_Miller said:

Kamala Harris is an inept politician. When she first ran for California attorney general in 2010, she won the general election by less than a percentage point over the Republican candidate, Steve Cooley (46.1-45.3%).
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_history_of_Kamala_Harris

Granted, 2010 was a Republican year, but that's still poor for a Democrat in California.

(Fun fact: Harris is a member of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco.)

Her performance in the 2020 primaries was hardly a success either. She wouldnt get near the nomination

Dynamo

HYUFD said:

glw said:

I don't know if Biden is too old, but I do know that all that matters is beating Trump or DeSantis. The Democrats must not screw this up.

Had Biden not Hillary been Democrat candidate in 2016 they might have beaten Trump then too.

Harris could be an even more woke Hillary

Harris has more personal charm than Hillary. She riles white racists because she is non-white, and male sexists because she is a woman, but other than that she doesn't rile a lot of people. (That's perhaps a shame, because I don't like her policy on education one bit.) Hillary riled a lot of people. Many who voted for Hillary didn't like her at all but they detested Trump.

If Biden were to announce tomorrow that he'll be backing Harris in 2024, and Harris were to declare, Trump would probably declare immediately. Insulting names for Harris would then follow when he deemed the time was right. If Biden were to say he'll run for re-election, Trump would probably declare right away too.

I would love to see Michelle Obama as the next US president. She could make a real difference. Probably won't run for the nomination, though.

Luckyguy1983

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

FPT - Methinks about the LAST thing Joe Biden would want to do while in the UK, is jump the queue (not The Queue but the Heads of State line) at QEII's state funeral.

BTW (and FYI) here is a photo taken of the funeral procession behind the casket of the late King Edward VII in 1910, featuring ex-President Theodore Roosevelt at the back of the gaggle of foreign sovereigns and other high dignitaries.

https://www.theodorerooseveltcenter.org/Research/Digital-Library/Record/ImageViewer?libID=o282342

If that was good enough for Teddy Roosevelt, am damn sure it's good enough for Joe Biden. And reckon Joe thinks so too.

Plus TR had to carry his own coat!

My point was that I think it was Biden and his people, not the Foreign Office (ultimately Truss) who had chosen his 'mejum' sort of placement within the service. Because whilst I am sure Biden wouldn't have 'pulled rank', I know that the UK Government would have taken every opportunity to lavish prestige on him if possible.

Big_G_NorthWales

Gardenwalker said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you would be taxed NI twice on the same income. It would become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Reading back my coment I wasn't clear. Apologies.

I didn't actually say put it on pensions. Indeed, I got pulled up the other day when we were discussing this because I explicitly excluded pensions and other unearned income.

What I said was put it on pensioners. I was referring to the fact that, currently, anyone past pension age doesn't pay NI if they continue to work. Hence the 'earned income' comment.

All work should attract the same rates of taxation including NI irrespective of the age of the worker.

I agree with what you’re saying here.
Although I would compensate for that (effective) increase by increasing the rates at which income tax cuts in.

Personally I do think income/NI tax rates are at an effective maximum, they should be lower while wealth taxes should be higher.

I do think the time has come for some form of wealth tax or higher rate for the highly paid

The problem with all these seemingly sensible ideas is in the detail and who is brave enough to put forward a clear policy but does not scare away wealth creators

rcs1000

Jim_Miller said:

An Oxford graduate -- conservative columnist George Will -- has a suggestion for an alternative: "Neither party can responsibly participate in presenting the nation in 2024 with a spirit-crushing Biden-Trump 2.0. The Democrats’ dilemma is especially difficult because Biden’s vice president is an incontinent producer of word salads who suffers from deficits of political talent and policy substance.
. . .
Colorado’s Gov. Jared Polis is artistic in his rhetorical avoidance of presidential politics: The mere mention of it produces a Jackson Pollock-style splatter of verbiage about how he thinks, and presumably dreams, always and only about Colorado."
source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/09/14/democrat-jared-polis-presidential-potential-2024/

But Will thinks Democrats should look hard at Polis.

Before going into politics, Polis made a pile of money with internet companies -- and founded two charter* schools. Oh, and he is married to another man (if that's important to you) and they have two children.

(*Charter schools are difficult for Democratic politicians to back, given the strength of the teacher's unions.)

The last Colorado Governor who ran for the Democratic nomination (and who was also a successful entrepreneur) crashed and burned.

rcs1000

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

The latest RedfieldWilton poll has Biden leading Trump 43% to 40% but Trump leading Harris 42% to 40%. If those numbers hold Biden might run again despite his age. Harris may be too Woke for middle America.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1570839616940539904?s=20&t=5Fr8dRaZYwGEEe9uyyAdgw

The midterms I agree will be a mixed picture, the Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate

Harris is a former DA, who built her political career on sending black men to prison in large numbers. Some under…. Interesting circumstances.

She is less “woke” than Biden - which is part of her problems within the Democratic Party.

VP Harris's problem is neither her wokeness OR anti-wokeness, but rather her seeming inability to do anything positive for the President OR herself as Veep, except for breaking tie votes and standing in for POTUS occasionally. Her most obvious shortcoming - or failure - pertains to her alleged role with respect to the Border.

She is also a charisma free zone, who is virtually invisible in the role of Vice President.

SandyRentool

In the space of two days we had an unelected Head of Government foisted on us followed by an unelected Head of State.

But it's OK, since the hereditaries, bishops and appointees in the House of Lords will provide checks and balances.

Thank goodness we live in a democracy.

Gardenwalker

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you would be taxed NI twice on the same income. It would become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Reading back my coment I wasn't clear. Apologies.

I didn't actually say put it on pensions. Indeed, I got pulled up the other day when we were discussing this because I explicitly excluded pensions and other unearned income.

What I said was put it on pensioners. I was referring to the fact that, currently, anyone past pension age doesn't pay NI if they continue to work. Hence the 'earned income' comment.

All work should attract the same rates of taxation including NI irrespective of the age of the worker.

I agree with what you’re saying here.
Although I would compensate for that (effective) increase by increasing the rates at which income tax cuts in.

Personally I do think income/NI tax rates are at an effective maximum, they should be lower while wealth taxes should be higher.

I do think the time has come for some form of wealth tax or higher rate for the highly paid

The problem with all these seemingly sensible ideas is in the detail and who is brave enough to put forward a clear policy but does not scare away wealth creators

I don’t want to tax income more highly than it is at present.

I do want a relatively modest form of wealth tax.

The UK should “be more Swiss”, it is probably the most successful economy in the world, all things considered.

Dynamo

rcs1000 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

The latest RedfieldWilton poll has Biden leading Trump 43% to 40% but Trump leading Harris 42% to 40%. If those numbers hold Biden might run again despite his age. Harris may be too Woke for middle America.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1570839616940539904?s=20&t=5Fr8dRaZYwGEEe9uyyAdgw

The midterms I agree will be a mixed picture, the Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate

Harris is a former DA, who built her political career on sending black men to prison in large numbers. Some under…. Interesting circumstances.

She is less “woke” than Biden - which is part of her problems within the Democratic Party.

VP Harris's problem is neither her wokeness OR anti-wokeness, but rather her seeming inability to do anything positive for the President OR herself as Veep, except for breaking tie votes and standing in for POTUS occasionally. Her most obvious shortcoming - or failure - pertains to her alleged role with respect to the Border.

She is also a charisma free zone, who is virtually invisible in the role of Vice President.

Ah, you don't think Harris has any charisma. I'd say she has some. Much more than Hillary.

CorrectHorseBattery3

Thank goodness we are back to normal tomorrow. CoL has not gone away

Gardenwalker

rcs1000 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

HYUFD said:

The latest RedfieldWilton poll has Biden leading Trump 43% to 40% but Trump leading Harris 42% to 40%. If those numbers hold Biden might run again despite his age. Harris may be too Woke for middle America.

https://twitter.com/USA_Polling/status/1570839616940539904?s=20&t=5Fr8dRaZYwGEEe9uyyAdgw

The midterms I agree will be a mixed picture, the Democrats lose the House but hold the Senate

Harris is a former DA, who built her political career on sending black men to prison in large numbers. Some under…. Interesting circumstances.

She is less “woke” than Biden - which is part of her problems within the Democratic Party.

VP Harris's problem is neither her wokeness OR anti-wokeness, but rather her seeming inability to do anything positive for the President OR herself as Veep, except for breaking tie votes and standing in for POTUS occasionally. Her most obvious shortcoming - or failure - pertains to her alleged role with respect to the Border.

She is also a charisma free zone, who is virtually invisible in the role of Vice President.

She has charisma, but it is a kind of anti-charisma that leaves you cringeing.

rcs1000

Jim_Miller said:

Kamala Harris is an inept politician. When she first ran for California attorney general in 2010, she won the general election by less than a percentage point over the Republican candidate, Steve Cooley (46.1-45.3%).
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_history_of_Kamala_Harris

Granted, 2010 was a Republican year, but that's still poor for a Democrat in California.

(Fun fact: Harris is a member of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco.)

Fun fact, part deux:

I used to pass her house every day on the way to drop my kids off at school.

twistedfirestopper3

SeanT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

EVERYBODY has aged in the last few years

I don’t mean that flippantly, I mean it sincerely. Covid, and the war and the rest, have aged - at an accelerated pace - almost every adult I know

“Half a decade in 2 years” seems to be the median estimate

Blimey, great to see you back, fella!

Big_G_NorthWales

SandyRentool said:

In the space of two days we had an unelected Head of Government foisted on us followed by an unelected Head of State.

But it's OK, since the hereditaries, bishops and appointees in the House of Lords will provide checks and balances.

Thank goodness we live in a democracy.

Whatever you may say about Truss she was personally elected to the HOC by her constituency for 5 years as was the present government

Big_G_NorthWales

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you would be taxed NI twice on the same income. It would become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Reading back my coment I wasn't clear. Apologies.

I didn't actually say put it on pensions. Indeed, I got pulled up the other day when we were discussing this because I explicitly excluded pensions and other unearned income.

What I said was put it on pensioners. I was referring to the fact that, currently, anyone past pension age doesn't pay NI if they continue to work. Hence the 'earned income' comment.

All work should attract the same rates of taxation including NI irrespective of the age of the worker.

I agree with what you’re saying here.
Although I would compensate for that (effective) increase by increasing the rates at which income tax cuts in.

Personally I do think income/NI tax rates are at an effective maximum, they should be lower while wealth taxes should be higher.

I do think the time has come for some form of wealth tax or higher rate for the highly paid

The problem with all these seemingly sensible ideas is in the detail and who is brave enough to put forward a clear policy but does not scare away wealth creators

I don’t want to tax income more highly than it is at present.

I do want a relatively modest form of wealth tax.

The UK should “be more Swiss”, it is probably the most successful economy in the world, all things considered.

I would not disagree

Gardenwalker

Stacey Abrams would have been a much better VP pick.

Jim_Miller

rcs1000 said: "The last Colorado Governor who ran for the Democratic nomination (and who was also a successful entrepreneur) crashed and burned."

True enough. But I think, and said so in 2019, that John Hickenlooper would have been a stronger candidate, and a better president, than Joe Biden. (Obviously Democratic voters didn't agree with me.)

Foxy

glw said:

I don't know if Biden is too old, but I do know that all that matters is beating Trump or DeSantis. The Democrats must not screw this up.

Trumps approval rating has reached a new low, Biden has recovered slightly.

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1571883027927629825?t=2wrjf5mPf0JWrfv-jjNM5w&s=19

CorrectHorseBattery3

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

Big_G_NorthWales

It seems the rest of the week will comprise of the media reviewing today most of tomorrow, while Truss flies to the UN and her bilateral meeting with Biden, Wednesday and Thursday I understand is swearing of allegiance to the King by mps and no PMQ,s then Friday is the first real political occasion with Kwarteng announcing his measures at the dispatch box

Carnyx

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Thank goodness we are back to normal tomorrow. CoL has not gone away

Not to mention Brexit, despite the plea in the last thread not to mention it.

twistedfirestopper3

RobD said:

Benpointer said:

SeanT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

EVERYBODY has aged in the last few years

I don’t mean that flippantly, I mean it sincerely. Covid, and the war and the rest, have aged - at an accelerated pace - almost every adult I know

“Half a decade in 2 years” seems to be the median estimate

I feel younger and fitter since retiring 5 years ago tbh. Mainly because I've lost weight, am exercising more, eating healthier (not living in hotels all week), drinking less, and am under less stress.

OTOH I do appear have become considerably smugger. Sorry about that.

Glad to hear that. Already looking forward to retirement and it’s many years away!

I highly recommend it. I'm fitter, stronger, a better weight, healthier and happier than I've been for a good few years. Even entering a few competitive mountain bike races for next year. Mind you, I am only 55!

CorrectHorseBattery3

Carnyx said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Thank goodness we are back to normal tomorrow. CoL has not gone away

Not to mention Brexit, despite the plea in the last thread not to mention it.

No it’s okay to mention it even during funerals as long as you are pro Brexit. Ask Big G sorry the new moderator

RobD

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

All of them?

NickPalmer

Foxy said:

glw said:

I don't know if Biden is too old, but I do know that all that matters is beating Trump or DeSantis. The Democrats must not screw this up.

Trumps approval rating has reached a new low, Biden has recovered slightly.

https://twitter.com/Newsweek/status/1571883027927629825?t=2wrjf5mPf0JWrfv-jjNM5w&s=19

Biden edges Trump in most current polls, while Trump edges Harris (who would be a strong contender if Biden didn't run). It's all within a few points, but I think he'll run if he can. A professional politician will always fancy another 4 years of POTUS!

NickPalmer

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

In the space of two days we had an unelected Head of Government foisted on us followed by an unelected Head of State.

But it's OK, since the hereditaries, bishops and appointees in the House of Lords will provide checks and balances.

Thank goodness we live in a democracy.

Whatever you may say about Truss she was personally elected to the HOC by her constituency for 5 years as was the present government

Well, Jeremy Corbyn was elected by his constituency for much longer than that. But even we Keepers of the Flame don't say he had a mandate to run the country.

Foxy

Harris hasn't done anything to earn the nomination. She won't be POTUS, unless Biden dies before the next inauguration.

Buttigeig is the most likely, but quite possible Biden goes on. He has had a good war, and it may well be that inflation has peaked there.

The Primaries are not too far off. America seems to be a permanent election.

Carnyx

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Carnyx said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Thank goodness we are back to normal tomorrow. CoL has not gone away

Not to mention Brexit, despite the plea in the last thread not to mention it.

No it’s okay to mention it even during funerals as long as you are pro Brexit. Ask Big G sorry the new moderator

I was thinking in particular of the significance placed on the various meetings/discussions between KCIII, Ms Truss, and the various Irish elements from north and south.

Big_G_NorthWales

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Carnyx said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Thank goodness we are back to normal tomorrow. CoL has not gone away

Not to mention Brexit, despite the plea in the last thread not to mention it.

No it’s okay to mention it even during funerals as long as you are pro Brexit. Ask Big G sorry the new moderator

You seem to be utterly obsessed with me sadly

And before you abuse old folks again many are greatly loved grandparents and even great grandparents who have paid a lifetime of taxes and continue to pay taxes and indeed often support their children in providing financial help when they want to buy a property

I will not let you constantly abuse the elderly without responding

twistedfirestopper3

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

Grow up fella. I've done more than enough to spend a bit of time doing "nothing useful". Maybe you and Big G can take it outside, save the rest of us from having to listen to yer bickering?

NickPalmer

Dynamo said:

HYUFD said:

glw said:

I don't know if Biden is too old, but I do know that all that matters is beating Trump or DeSantis. The Democrats must not screw this up.

Had Biden not Hillary been Democrat candidate in 2016 they might have beaten Trump then too.

Harris could be an even more woke Hillary

Harris has more personal charm than Hillary. She riles white racists because she is non-white, and male sexists because she is a woman, but other than that she doesn't rile a lot of people. (That's perhaps a shame, because I don't like her policy on education one bit.) Hillary riled a lot of people. Many who voted for Hillary didn't like her at all but they detested Trump.

If Biden were to announce tomorrow that he'll be backing Harris in 2024, and Harris were to declare, Trump would probably declare immediately. Insulting names for Harris would then follow when he deemed the time was right. If Biden were to say he'll run for re-election, Trump would probably declare right away too.

I would love to see Michelle Obama as the next US president. She could make a real difference. Probably won't run for the nomination, though.

Agree with you on all of that. Harris's ratings are slgihtly better than Biden's, though she narrowly loses the direct matchups. VPs always struggle to make a mark but I think she'd be an interesting contender. The Dems probably have a better shot with Biden, though - a known quantity and hard to attack for real or imagined past mistakes.

rottenborough

FWIW, I think a lot depends on Trump. If he declares then Biden will see it as his duty and mission to beat him one last time.

Dynamo

SeanT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

EVERYBODY has aged in the last few years

I don’t mean that flippantly, I mean it sincerely. Covid, and the war and the rest, have aged - at an accelerated pace - almost every adult I know

“Half a decade in 2 years” seems to be the median estimate

People who sat on their arses most of the time during lockdown have aged a lot. And that's a lot of people.

I went in the opposite direction. Early on during the first lockdown, I started a regime of a daily morning run and other exercise too and I've kept it up ever since.

wooliedyed

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

I feel the same about children. Fucking spongers.

Big_G_NorthWales

NickPalmer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SandyRentool said:

In the space of two days we had an unelected Head of Government foisted on us followed by an unelected Head of State.

But it's OK, since the hereditaries, bishops and appointees in the House of Lords will provide checks and balances.

Thank goodness we live in a democracy.

Whatever you may say about Truss she was personally elected to the HOC by her constituency for 5 years as was the present government

Well, Jeremy Corbyn was elected by his constituency for much longer than that. But even we Keepers of the Flame don't say he had a mandate to run the country.

To be fair Nick he didn't

Toms

Foxy said: "The Primaries are not too far off. America seems to be a permanent election."

States rights. Big country.

IshmaelZ

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

I think the young should be rendered down and used as fertiliser for wheat to make rusks which us oldies can mumble between our toothless jaws. What is the point of them otherwise?

Foxy

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

Strange day to say that. Do you think Queen Elizabeth did no useful thing in the last 30 years?

Luckyguy1983

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you would be taxed NI twice on the same income. It would become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Reading back my coment I wasn't clear. Apologies.

I didn't actually say put it on pensions. Indeed, I got pulled up the other day when we were discussing this because I explicitly excluded pensions and other unearned income.

What I said was put it on pensioners. I was referring to the fact that, currently, anyone past pension age doesn't pay NI if they continue to work. Hence the 'earned income' comment.

All work should attract the same rates of taxation including NI irrespective of the age of the worker.

I agree with what you’re saying here.
Although I would compensate for that (effective) increase by increasing the rates at which income tax cuts in.

Personally I do think income/NI tax rates are at an effective maximum, they should be lower while wealth taxes should be higher.

I do think the time has come for some form of wealth tax or higher rate for the highly paid

The problem with all these seemingly sensible ideas is in the detail and who is brave enough to put forward a clear policy but does not scare away wealth creators

I don’t want to tax income more highly than it is at present.

I do want a relatively modest form of wealth tax.

The UK should “be more Swiss”, it is probably the most successful economy in the world, all things considered.

I would not disagree

I also agree with 'be more Swiss', but we must look at what Switzerland did in the past (and probably the distant past at that) to emulate its success, not what it does now.

Cicero

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

“Honour thy father and thy mother: that thy days may be long upon the land which the Lord thy God giveth thee.”

OnlyLivingBoy

SeanT said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

He's not much older than Charles whom we've just made King.

Charles is 73 and I will be 79 next birthday similar to Biden and I was much fitter at 73 then I am today

It does not apply to everybody but my wife and I have both aged quite a bit in the last few years

EVERYBODY has aged in the last few years

I don’t mean that flippantly, I mean it sincerely. Covid, and the war and the rest, have aged - at an accelerated pace - almost every adult I know

“Half a decade in 2 years” seems to be the median estimate

Really? I haven't really seen that phenomenon among my friends and family. I was at a local house party on Saturday night for some friends' 50th and was dancing until 3am, everyone still seemed up for it!

Cookie

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Thank goodness we are back to normal tomorrow. CoL has not gone away

The CoL is a very boring crisis.
That's not to deny its importance. But philosophically "shit, gas has gone up fourteen-fold, rendering it and everything it is used for" us not particularly philosophically interesting, and neither if the short term answers - "suck it up" or "whack it on the credit card ajd let the kids pay for it" are particularly satisfying. (The long term answers, mind, about how we move away from reliance on fossil fuels and the maniacs who sell them, is both interesting and satisfying.)
And the news from Ukraine is almost all awful, even if notably less awful than when it appeared Ukraine would be overrun and enslaved.
I must admit I have rather enjoyed the philosphical musings on the nature of Britishness, identity and sovereignty of the ladt ten days, along with the human drama of The Queue. I have surprised myself.
I wouldn't want to keep it up for ever - ten days or so is about right - but in pure news terms it has been a welcome diversion.
I'm surprised at myself here. Royal weddings are shit. But it turns out royal funerals are brilliant.

rottenborough

Gardenwalker said:

Stacey Abrams would have been a much better VP pick.

This. 1000x this.

paulyork64

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

Young people need to vote in the numbers the old do. The country would be a better place for it

Carnyx

Luckyguy1983 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Gardenwalker said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

state_go_away said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

FPT

Gardenwalker said:

Carnyx said:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs



Hmm ... not looking like a good morning back to work for Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng tomorrow.

Personally I was against the national insurance hike, so it would be hypocritical of me to moan about its cancellation.

But I feel in my bones that the Truss/Kwarteng project is already doomed.

This is exactly the time to make the difficult decisions for the good of the country.

Remove the National insurance upper earnings limit. Make it the same rate on all earned income rather than having a reduced rate for the higher earners.
Introduce National Insurance for pensioners.

I want lower taxes overall but I also want taxation to be fairer. Making it so the more you earn the lower your rate of NI is not equitable.

removing the limit makes sense but putting it on pensions is unfair in the sense that pension tax relief (ie when you are saving for a pension in working life) only relieves income tax not NI - so if you are now drawing a pension and were taxed NI you would be taxed NI twice on the same income. It would become very tax inefficient to save for a pension then

Reading back my coment I wasn't clear. Apologies.

I didn't actually say put it on pensions. Indeed, I got pulled up the other day when we were discussing this because I explicitly excluded pensions and other unearned income.

What I said was put it on pensioners. I was referring to the fact that, currently, anyone past pension age doesn't pay NI if they continue to work. Hence the 'earned income' comment.

All work should attract the same rates of taxation including NI irrespective of the age of the worker.

I agree with what you’re saying here.
Although I would compensate for that (effective) increase by increasing the rates at which income tax cuts in.

Personally I do think income/NI tax rates are at an effective maximum, they should be lower while wealth taxes should be higher.

I do think the time has come for some form of wealth tax or higher rate for the highly paid

The problem with all these seemingly sensible ideas is in the detail and who is brave enough to put forward a clear policy but does not scare away wealth creators

I don’t want to tax income more highly than it is at present.

I do want a relatively modest form of wealth tax.

The UK should “be more Swiss”, it is probably the most successful economy in the world, all things considered.

I would not disagree

I also agree with 'be more Swiss', but we must look at what Switzerland did in the past (and probably the distant past at that) to emulate its success, not what it does now.

Federalism. (Not 'Devolution').
Republicanism.
Part of the EU customs zone (I forget the precise details).

rottenborough

RobD said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

All of them?

I fear we will soon need Horsebattery4.

Carnyx

paulyork64 said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

Young people need to vote in the numbers the old do. The country would be a better place for it

Now that I do agree with. Australian style compulsory voting would be a good idea. Some of us can draw dick pics in more than one box if they so wish.

wooliedyed

paulyork64 said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

Young people need to vote in the numbers the old do. The country would be a better place for it

Nah, disenfranchise under 40s, they need life experience to be deloused of their ridiculous doe eyed idealism.

Carnyx

Cicero said:

CorrectHorseBattery3 said:

Young people have to pay for old people. I say fuck them, you do nothing useful.

“Honour thy father and thy mother: that thy days may be long upon the land which the Lord thy God giveth thee.”

'In those days they shall say no more, The fathers have eaten a sour grape, and the children's teeth are set on edge. But every one shall die for his own iniquity: every man that eateth the sour grape, his teeth shall be set on edge.'