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The first favourability ratings on Truss don’t look good – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 15 in General
imageThe first favourability ratings on Truss don’t look good – politicalbetting.com

The above from People Polling for GB News is the first leader rating data we have since she was elected and as can be seen just 15% view her favourably. That compares with a whopping 51% saying unfavourable.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Seems like we're onto Corbyn levels of "it will get better" now.

    It never did, he never got very popular, he never won.

    I think they're done
  • I would respectively suggest comeback in a couple of months after the funeral and party conferences
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,780
    This is all a little early and times are not normal. However I do fear for my Sept 2022 Tory poll lead bet.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    edited September 9
    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    Yes, polls at the moment are pretty much useless. I wouldn't bother holding any at the moment.
  • ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    My guess is they will be pretty good for about 2 weeks, then she will start to struggle as inflation bites. True, sheiks trying to mitigate it, but saying 'hey, things would be more shit without me' isn't a winning strategy.

    I do think she will get sympathy for being appointed the week the Queen died, and so far she has handled it well.

    Edit - and I am truly fucking fed up with autocorrect changing 'ill' to 'I'll' all the bloody time, but at least I can say I got a first.

    Her energy plans project a 5% drop in inflation as affirmed by the city and the pound rose against both the euro and dollar today
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829

    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    My guess is they will be pretty good for about 2 weeks, then she will start to struggle as inflation bites. True, sheiks trying to mitigate it, but saying 'hey, things would be more shit without me' isn't a winning strategy.

    I do think she will get sympathy for being appointed the week the Queen died, and so far she has handled it well.

    Edit - and I am truly fucking fed up with autocorrect changing 'ill' to 'I'll' all the bloody time, but at least I can say I got a first.

    Her energy plans project a 5% drop in inflation as affirmed by the city and the pound rose against both the euro and dollar today
    You are cheerleading for Truss as HYUFD did for Johnson. Keep it up.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 25,993
    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed
  • PB Tories will say "polls don't matter" until one shows the Tories going forward, then they will be important again!!!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,145

    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    My guess is they will be pretty good for about 2 weeks, then she will start to struggle as inflation bites. True, sheiks trying to mitigate it, but saying 'hey, things would be more shit without me' isn't a winning strategy.

    I do think she will get sympathy for being appointed the week the Queen died, and so far she has handled it well.

    Edit - and I am truly fucking fed up with autocorrect changing 'ill' to 'I'll' all the bloody time, but at least I can say I got a first.

    Her energy plans project a 5% drop in inflation as affirmed by the city and the pound rose against both the euro and dollar today
    I thought it was a drop to 5%, but in a sense I don't think that matters. There are still going to be very large increases in fuel and food prices, and unless British Gas are being nice to everyone for some reason it's still going to be very painful.

    That's not to say her actions will have a negligible impact. Economically they may do the job. But politically it's always a hard sell to say, 'yes, things are worse but if it wasn't for me they would be much worse.' It didn't work for either Brown or Major, who took drastic action to save the economy from total collapse and still got blamed for the ensuing still fairly serious problems their corrective measures caused.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,178
    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    My guess is they will be pretty good for about 2 weeks, then she will start to struggle as inflation bites. True, she's trying to mitigate it, but saying 'hey, things would be more shit without me' isn't a winning strategy.

    I do think she will get sympathy for being appointed the week the Queen died, and so far she has handled it well.

    Edit - and I am truly fucking fed up with autocorrect changing 'ill' to 'I'll' all the bloody time, but at least I can say I got a first.

    Since you mentioned it ipt it seems appropriate to mention that the 14 yo Elizabeth would have listened to:

    What General Weygand has called the Battle of France is over. I expect the Battle of Britain is about to begin. Upon this battle depends the survival of Christian civilisation. Upon it depends our own British life, and the long continuity of our institutions and our Empire. The whole fury and might of the enemy must very soon be turned on us. Hitler knows that he will have to break us in this island or lose the war. If we can stand up to him, all Europe may be freed and the life of the world may move forward into broad, sunlit uplands. But if we fail, then the whole world, including the United States, including all that we have known and cared for, will sink into the abyss of a new Dark Age made more sinister, and perhaps more protracted, by the lights of perverted science. Let us therefore brace ourselves to our duties, and so bear ourselves that, if the British Empire and its Commonwealth last for a thousand years, men will still say, 'This was their finest hour.'
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    “Two soups”



  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378
    edited September 9
    The first sign of the beginning of a Truss bounce?? Or just noise......
    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (7 Sep): People Polling

    🔴 LAB: 40% (-2 from 30 Aug)
    🔵 CON: 28% (+3)
    🟠 LDM: 9% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 7% (=)
    🟡 SNP: 5% (=)
  • Liz Truss is not very "warm" is she, strong Theresa May vibes
  • It seems the HOC returns the day before the emergency budget and Truss is due to go to the US that week

    It appears energy companies are to contact consumers with details of the energy cap this month, and deduct £66 per month from October bills each month for 6 months, something Starmer was to cancel in his plans
  • The first sign of a Truss bounce?? Or just noise......
    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (7 Sep): People Polling

    🔴 LAB: 40% (-2 from 30 Aug)
    🔵 CON: 28% (+3)
    🟠 LDM: 9% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 7% (=)
    🟡 SNP: 5% (=)

    Polls matter again!!!!
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,465
    edited September 9
    (From last thread. I felt unlucky to be the penultimate post)

    A friend was awarded a knighthood for his research. It seems a queue was formed of recipients to briefly be presented to her Maj. Anyway, when it was his turn she asked him what he did (quantum chaos) whereupon he gave a paragraph answer. He sez she looked briefly like she had been coshed.
    His retelling was affectionate. As a republican myself I forgive him for accepting the gong because he is brilliant and of humble provenance.

    Make no mistake, the Queen's legacy, as I see it, is that there is great value in application and doing one's very best.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,243
    FPT:

    There are rumors about fighting in the circled areas and around Lyman. I think it's possible since we have confirmed AFU presence in the area.
    I believe this is the preparation of a bridge head for another offensive.


    https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1568301534764580865

    Ukraine's armed forces managed a crossing of the river near Lyman a couple of days ago, and it's possible that this is about to become a third front of major advance from Ukraine. A real sense of the Russian army having been broken by recent reverses. Is there a Russian formation that can hold a line somewhere and stabilise the situation?

    Ah, there's some video.

    OSINTtechnical
    @Osinttechnical
    Videos show mechanized Ukrainian forces crossing the T0514 bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River, reportedly heading towards Lyman.


    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1568305891279048710

    Apparently Putin is holding an emergency meeting of his State Security Committee (or whatever). The only options I can think of for them are:

    1. Declare war and a general mobilisation to throw numbers at the problem.
    2. Escalate with nuclear weapons.
    3. Withdraw to a smaller, more easily-defended perimeter.
    4. Declare a unilateral ceasefire and attempt to have Ukraine pressured to accept this.
    5. Reject all these options, and change nothing.
    5 it is then!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,145

    The first sign of the beginning of a Truss bounce?? Or just noise......
    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (7 Sep): People Polling

    🔴 LAB: 40% (-2 from 30 Aug)
    🔵 CON: 28% (+3)
    🟠 LDM: 9% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 7% (=)
    🟡 SNP: 5% (=)

    That's rather stylish. How do you get the coloured bullet points?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378

    The first sign of a Truss bounce?? Or just noise......
    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (7 Sep): People Polling

    🔴 LAB: 40% (-2 from 30 Aug)
    🔵 CON: 28% (+3)
    🟠 LDM: 9% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 7% (=)
    🟡 SNP: 5% (=)

    Polls matter again!!!!
    Sigh
  • CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    Yes, polls at the moment are pretty much useless. I wouldn't bother holding any at the moment.
    They're never much use at this point in the electoral cycle and particularly in the summer months. I would tend to look at the broader picture, but then if you are a government supporter maybe you'd prefer not to.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378
    edited September 9
    ydoethur said:

    The first sign of the beginning of a Truss bounce?? Or just noise......
    NEW: Westminster Voting Intention poll (7 Sep): People Polling

    🔴 LAB: 40% (-2 from 30 Aug)
    🔵 CON: 28% (+3)
    🟠 LDM: 9% (-1)
    🟢 GRN: 7% (=)
    🟡 SNP: 5% (=)

    That's rather stylish. How do you get the coloured bullet points?
    Copy and paste from the tweet!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144
    Increasingly seems that the relative neutrality of Truss’s style means she is getting filed by the public as “standard Tory”. Her ratings reflect what the voters think of standard Tory 12 years in.

    Arguably Starmer’s similar neutrality means
    he’s being rated as “standard labour” too. And Davey is very much standard LibDem.

    Whither the days of decidedly non-neutral Boris, Jeremy and Jo?
  • IshmaelZ said:

    PB Tories will say "polls don't matter" until one shows the Tories going forward, then they will be important again!!!!

    Look, either fucking engage with individual posters, or post original and interesting thoughts of your own, or fuck off. There is NOTHING more fucking tedious than non specific sniping at "pb Tories" for what you very unimaginatively expect them to say rather than anything they actually do say.
    Touched a nerve did I matey
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,003
    edited September 9

    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    My guess is they will be pretty good for about 2 weeks, then she will start to struggle as inflation bites. True, sheiks trying to mitigate it, but saying 'hey, things would be more shit without me' isn't a winning strategy.

    I do think she will get sympathy for being appointed the week the Queen died, and so far she has handled it well.

    Edit - and I am truly fucking fed up with autocorrect changing 'ill' to 'I'll' all the bloody time, but at least I can say I got a first.

    Her energy plans project a 5% drop in inflation as affirmed by the city and the pound rose against both the euro and dollar today
    You are cheerleading for Truss as HYUFD did for Johnson. Keep it up.
    Why not

    I wanted Johnson gone and had reservations about Truss but she has impressed me and just as Labour fans are ramping Starmer some of us will promote Truss

    And by the way what is wrong with my statement and labour supporters seem to be getting quite worried, which they should
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,324
    Scott_xP said:

    “Two soups”



    To give her some credit - and I say that as someone staunchly anti Truss - it’s a pretty friggin difficult time
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,811
    edited September 9

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    Yes, polls at the moment are pretty much useless. I wouldn't bother holding any at the moment.
    They're never much use at this point in the electoral cycle and particularly in the summer months. I would tend to look at the broader picture, but then if you are a government supporter maybe you'd prefer not to.
    Well I'm not a government supporter (or a Monarchist), but I don't think it's controversial to say that taking a poll now might be affected by other things that are happening at the moment.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,149

    It seems the HOC returns the day before the emergency budget and Truss is due to go to the US that week

    It appears energy companies are to contact consumers with details of the energy cap this month, and deduct £66 per month from October bills each month for 6 months, something Starmer was to cancel in his plans

    Anyone can borrow £150 billion.

    The Blessed Liz isn't doing anything clever.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    PB Tories will say "polls don't matter" until one shows the Tories going forward, then they will be important again!!!!

    Look, either fucking engage with individual posters, or post original and interesting thoughts of your own, or fuck off. There is NOTHING more fucking tedious than non specific sniping at "pb Tories" for what you very unimaginatively expect them to say rather than anything they actually do say.
    Indeed
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144
    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    PB Tories will say "polls don't matter" until one shows the Tories going forward, then they will be important again!!!!

    Look, either fucking engage with individual posters, or post original and interesting thoughts of your own, or fuck off. There is NOTHING more fucking tedious than non specific sniping at "pb Tories" for what you very unimaginatively expect them to say rather than anything they actually do say.
    Indeed
    Do you remember when you sat here and told me not to be abusive? Now you're cheering it on and agreeing with it.

    You are a hypocrite.
  • PB Tories will say "polls don't matter" until one shows the Tories going forward, then they will be important again!!!!

    Nah, most PB Tories said that polls didn't matter even when the Tories were in the lead, but glad you acknowledge that the Tories will go forward again. ;)

    No midterm polls matter, never have done, never will do.

    Midterm polls before this week has been digested? Even more worthless than normal.

    Taking a poll when the media is talking about £3600 energy bills and 15% inflation is completely different to when the energy bills have been addressed and inflation is expected to be 5% lower, but even that announcement was overshadowed by what happened while it was being announced.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,324
    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    Wonderful.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378
    So, for 'tory lead September' betting we have a completely unmoved YouGov and Redfield but movement 'into the herd' and with People's Polling. Opinium last weekend moved back to 4 points and looks ths only 'possible' contender as it stands.
    Techne didnt report today and it looks like they've gone fortnightly.
    Of course, polling may be sparse during mourning so that further messes with the September hawks
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    Wonderful.
    That's day four for Truss.
  • CatMan said:

    CatMan said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    Yes, polls at the moment are pretty much useless. I wouldn't bother holding any at the moment.
    They're never much use at this point in the electoral cycle and particularly in the summer months. I would tend to look at the broader picture, but then if you are a government supporter maybe you'd prefer not to.
    Well I'm not a government supporter (or a Monarchist), but I don't think it's controversial to say that taking a poll now might be affected by other things that are happening at the moment.
    Didn't suggest you were, merely that the broader picture looks pretty grim for Government supporters regardless of the polls, or recent exceptional events.
  • It seems the HOC returns the day before the emergency budget and Truss is due to go to the US that week

    It appears energy companies are to contact consumers with details of the energy cap this month, and deduct £66 per month from October bills each month for 6 months, something Starmer was to cancel in his plans

    Anyone can borrow £150 billion.

    The Blessed Liz isn't doing anything clever.
    She is addressing the biggest crisis we have seen since the war and which is also causing disruption across Europe

    Tonight the EU have failed to agree an energy price cap and shortly Italy is likely to elect a far right pro Putin government
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,719
    Scott_xP said:

    “Two soups”



    Vaguely remembering days of being a bit monged in the odd dance pit, her stance seems to be the start of the “Truss Bounce”, a hitherto neglected dance move from 90’s student nights.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829
    edited September 9

    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    My guess is they will be pretty good for about 2 weeks, then she will start to struggle as inflation bites. True, sheiks trying to mitigate it, but saying 'hey, things would be more shit without me' isn't a winning strategy.

    I do think she will get sympathy for being appointed the week the Queen died, and so far she has handled it well.

    Edit - and I am truly fucking fed up with autocorrect changing 'ill' to 'I'll' all the bloody time, but at least I can say I got a first.

    Her energy plans project a 5% drop in inflation as affirmed by the city and the pound rose against both the euro and dollar today
    You are cheerleading for Truss as HYUFD did for Johnson. Keep it up.
    Why not

    I wanted Johnson gone and had reservations about Truss but she has impressed me and just as Labour fans are ramping Starmer some of us will promote Truss

    And by the way what is wrong with my statement and labour supporters seem to be getting quite worried, which they should
    Labour fans ramping Starmer?

    Liz Truss has been thrown in at the deep end and she is doing fine. Not perfect but under the difficult circumstances, very well. Head and shoulders better than Johnson would have handled it.

    If she jettisons all the ERG/CRG/ goodness knows what elseRG nonsense I would have more time for her. And if she can turn the economy around that doesn't worry me. In fact I would be relieved.

    Tbh now isn't really the time for party political ramping and to be honest not many on here are indulging.
  • RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    Wonderful.
    That's day four for Truss.
    Even Craig David thinks Truss has had a busy week.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783
    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    What madman liked this post? :D
  • RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    What madman liked this post? :D
    Vlad is lurking on PB?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,509
    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    I was surprised General Zaluzhny dropped the 'n' word in his recent interview. I hope we've thought about it and communicated things through the correct channels.

    Strong rumours that Ukrainian troops have entered Izyum. I am struggling to understand how they could have broken through the Russian lines with such ease but there you go.
  • RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    What madman liked this post? :D
    Vlad is lurking on PB?
    Dynamo suggestion that.
  • It seems the HOC returns the day before the emergency budget and Truss is due to go to the US that week

    It appears energy companies are to contact consumers with details of the energy cap this month, and deduct £66 per month from October bills each month for 6 months, something Starmer was to cancel in his plans

    Anyone can borrow £150 billion.

    The Blessed Liz isn't doing anything clever.
    She is addressing the biggest crisis we have seen since the war and which is also causing disruption across Europe

    Tonight the EU have failed to agree an energy price cap and shortly Italy is likely to elect a far right pro Putin government
    No, she is addressing the biggest crisis since the global financial crisis.

    Maybe Gordon Brown could help her?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,347
    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    And that’s just on pb…
  • So, for 'tory lead September' betting we have a completely unmoved YouGov and Redfield but movement 'into the herd' and with People's Polling. Opinium last weekend moved back to 4 points and looks ths only 'possible' contender as it stands.
    Techne didnt report today and it looks like they've gone fortnightly.
    Of course, polling may be sparse during mourning so that further messes with the September hawks

    I've got a bet on a Tory lead. Good chance Opinium delivers
  • So, for 'tory lead September' betting we have a completely unmoved YouGov and Redfield but movement 'into the herd' and with People's Polling. Opinium last weekend moved back to 4 points and looks ths only 'possible' contender as it stands.
    Techne didnt report today and it looks like they've gone fortnightly.
    Of course, polling may be sparse during mourning so that further messes with the September hawks

    They've done their conkers, Woolie.
  • ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    My guess is they will be pretty good for about 2 weeks, then she will start to struggle as inflation bites. True, sheiks trying to mitigate it, but saying 'hey, things would be more shit without me' isn't a winning strategy.

    I do think she will get sympathy for being appointed the week the Queen died, and so far she has handled it well.

    Edit - and I am truly fucking fed up with autocorrect changing 'ill' to 'I'll' all the bloody time, but at least I can say I got a first.

    Her energy plans project a 5% drop in inflation as affirmed by the city and the pound rose against both the euro and dollar today
    You are cheerleading for Truss as HYUFD did for Johnson. Keep it up.
    Why not

    I wanted Johnson gone and had reservations about Truss but she has impressed me and just as Labour fans are ramping Starmer some of us will promote Truss

    And by the way what is wrong with my statement and labour supporters seem to be getting quite worried, which they should
    Labour fans ramping Starmer?

    Liz Truss has been thrown in at the deep end and she is doing fine. Not perfect but under the difficult circumstances, very well. Head and shoulders better than Johnson would have handled it.

    If she jettisons all the ERG/CRG/ goodness knows what elseRG nonsense I would have more time for her. And if she can turn the economy around that doesn't worry me. In fact I would be relieved.

    Tbh now isn't really the time for party political ramping and to be honest not many on here not many are indulging.
    Some are and should expect a response

    However, I understand on NI, Blair and Ahern are in intensive talks with the EU, UK and Ireland over an acceptable compromise and Truss is due to go to Ireland shortly, so let us hope common sense prevails

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707
    RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    What madman liked this post? :D
    Its a good point though.
    People think that 'Putin is being pushed back', and that 'Russia poses no conventional military threat to Europe'; but they just haven't thought it through.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378
    edited September 9
    The other great drama of the week is the chess world in meltdown at the Sinquefield Cup. Is Hans Niemann a cheaty cheat pants or has Magnus Carlsen thrown a spectacularly unneccessary paddy?!
    Theyre playing on like its not all totally buggered
  • FossFoss Posts: 565

    It seems the HOC returns the day before the emergency budget and Truss is due to go to the US that week

    It appears energy companies are to contact consumers with details of the energy cap this month, and deduct £66 per month from October bills each month for 6 months, something Starmer was to cancel in his plans

    Anyone can borrow £150 billion.

    The Blessed Liz isn't doing anything clever.
    She is addressing the biggest crisis we have seen since the war and which is also causing disruption across Europe

    Tonight the EU have failed to agree an energy price cap and shortly Italy is likely to elect a far right pro Putin government
    No, she is addressing the biggest crisis since the global financial crisis.

    Maybe Gordon Brown could help her?
    She does look spritely enough to avoid most of the flung mobile phones and staplers.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378

    So, for 'tory lead September' betting we have a completely unmoved YouGov and Redfield but movement 'into the herd' and with People's Polling. Opinium last weekend moved back to 4 points and looks ths only 'possible' contender as it stands.
    Techne didnt report today and it looks like they've gone fortnightly.
    Of course, polling may be sparse during mourning so that further messes with the September hawks

    They've done their conkers, Woolie.
    I agree. They are all adrift in an oarless tub
  • .

    ydoethur said:

    I think for good or ill we should avoid thinking about Truss' favourability ratings for about a month.

    My guess is they will be pretty good for about 2 weeks, then she will start to struggle as inflation bites. True, sheiks trying to mitigate it, but saying 'hey, things would be more shit without me' isn't a winning strategy.

    I do think she will get sympathy for being appointed the week the Queen died, and so far she has handled it well.

    Edit - and I am truly fucking fed up with autocorrect changing 'ill' to 'I'll' all the bloody time, but at least I can say I got a first.

    Her energy plans project a 5% drop in inflation as affirmed by the city and the pound rose against both the euro and dollar today
    You are cheerleading for Truss as HYUFD did for Johnson. Keep it up.
    Why not

    I wanted Johnson gone and had reservations about Truss but she has impressed me and just as Labour fans are ramping Starmer some of us will promote Truss

    And by the way what is wrong with my statement and labour supporters seem to be getting quite worried, which they should
    Labour fans ramping Starmer?

    Liz Truss has been thrown in at the deep end and she is doing fine. Not perfect but under the difficult circumstances, very well. Head and shoulders better than Johnson would have handled it.

    If she jettisons all the ERG/CRG/ goodness knows what elseRG nonsense I would have more time for her. And if she can turn the economy around that doesn't worry me. In fact I would be relieved.

    Tbh now isn't really the time for party political ramping and to be honest not many on here not many are indulging.
    Some are and should expect a response

    However, I understand on NI, Blair and Ahern are in intensive talks with the EU, UK and Ireland over an acceptable compromise and Truss is due to go to Ireland shortly, so let us hope common sense prevails

    Truss put in a tremendous amount of legwork after she replaced Lord Frost on handling the NI issue by the time she came up with the NI Protocol Bill. It came up with the right solutions, but to be implemented in what some would consider the "wrong" way.

    If the EU can negotiate to implement her solutions via an agreed path, instead of it being unilaterally imposed, they can save face and diplomatic niceties can be maintained and we can all move on from Brexit-era arguments.
  • darkage said:

    RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    What madman liked this post? :D
    Its a good point though.
    People think that 'Putin is being pushed back', and that 'Russia poses no conventional military threat to Europe'; but they just haven't thought it through.
    We have.

    Putin being pushed back doesn't threaten nuclear war.

    If Putin tried to suggest launching nukes when his Generals know he has lost a crazy war, he would be on a crash course of learning how to fly from an upper story window faster than you can say defenestration.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378

    So, for 'tory lead September' betting we have a completely unmoved YouGov and Redfield but movement 'into the herd' and with People's Polling. Opinium last weekend moved back to 4 points and looks ths only 'possible' contender as it stands.
    Techne didnt report today and it looks like they've gone fortnightly.
    Of course, polling may be sparse during mourning so that further messes with the September hawks

    I've got a bet on a Tory lead. Good chance Opinium delivers
    The smoothing works both ways of course, if the Tories firm up the 'don't knows' which gets them good ground with the other pollsters, opinium are already accounting for some of this movement......
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,509

    It seems the HOC returns the day before the emergency budget and Truss is due to go to the US that week

    It appears energy companies are to contact consumers with details of the energy cap this month, and deduct £66 per month from October bills each month for 6 months, something Starmer was to cancel in his plans

    Anyone can borrow £150 billion.

    The Blessed Liz isn't doing anything clever.
    She is addressing the biggest crisis we have seen since the war and which is also causing disruption across Europe

    Tonight the EU have failed to agree an energy price cap and shortly Italy is likely to elect a far right pro Putin government
    I don't think so. Meloni is a self-described Tory and no fan of Putin. The problem is the likely coalition partners she will have though I think they've gone quiet on the pro-Putin stuff.

    Since we're part of the European gas market what are we currently trying to do about the raw prices? I've not heard much from our new government. They have come down from the charts I'm reading, not far off half the price of the (admittedly very sharp) peak.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707
    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,836
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    It's a decent start by Liz in the face of exceptionally difficult circumstances.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    There’s these days quite a wide zone between Labour majority and Labour largest party. A zone if, probably, around 70-75 seats at the next election.

    Tribal Labour may view anything short of workable majority as a failure but the 60-odd percent of the electorate who don’t want the Tories in power will happily take Labour as largest party (and about 55% will take Labour largest but without reliance on SNP).
  • darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    What I would say is Truss has brought the conservatives back into play, and of course the extraordinary circumstances have helped but so far she has risen to the occasion

    I really have no idea about 2024 but who would have prediced this 'event' even 7 days ago

    A week is a long time in politics
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707

    darkage said:

    RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    What madman liked this post? :D
    Its a good point though.
    People think that 'Putin is being pushed back', and that 'Russia poses no conventional military threat to Europe'; but they just haven't thought it through.
    We have.

    Putin being pushed back doesn't threaten nuclear war.

    If Putin tried to suggest launching nukes when his Generals know he has lost a crazy war, he would be on a crash course of learning how to fly from an upper story window faster than you can say defenestration.
    This is complete speculation, because we know almost nothing about the generals and what is going on inside the Kremlin. Certainly there is a longstanding idea that no one would execute the order to start a nuclear war, but as for 'tactical nukes', then I think that this is actually part of Russian Military Doctrine, that they can be used to defend land that they claim; and I think this is probably behind the original comment about fear of tactical nuclear escalation.

    All goes back to the discussion earlier; 'careful what you wish for'.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829
    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    "Keep(s) going for 6-7 years" after an election? That means she wins a minimum of two elections in that case.
  • darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    "Keep(s) going for 6-7 years" after an election? That means she wins a minimum of two elections in that case.
    She is young enough but let's not get ahead of ourselves
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144
    edited September 9

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    It's a decent start by Liz in the face of exceptionally difficult circumstances.
    I think PB is perhaps in danger of overanalysing the content of speeches rather than the general mood music.

    Electorate seems to be saying time for a change. And Liz has, overnight, neutralised the biggest attack line on Keir, that he’s wooden and unexciting.

  • TimS said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    It's a decent start by Liz in the face of exceptionally difficult circumstances.
    I think PB is perhaps in danger of overanalysing.

    Electorate seems to be saying time for a change. And Liz has, overnight, neutralised the biggest attack line on Keir, that he’s wooden and unexciting.

    Liz is going to win if the economy is in good shape and things are going well. It won't be because of personality
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,719
    A musical interlude apropos of nothing

    https://youtu.be/yLCUhL11fLI

  • darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    Be careful, Darkage. Remember this is a betting site. We would not want you injured by the stampede of punters anxious to place their bets with you.

    The sound and serious point behind your view is that Labour really need to make some progress in Scotland to win an overall majority. There isn't much sign of that yet. It could happen though, and even if it doesn't a Tory meltdown would do it on its own. The polls are currently unreliable but they are hinting that Conservative support may be down to bedrock at about 30%. That would just about do it for Labour.

    I'm reluctantly inclined to agree with out footsore flintknapping friend Leon. The Tories are cattle trucked.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    "Keep(s) going for 6-7 years" after an election? That means she wins a minimum of two elections in that case.
    She is young enough but let's not get ahead of ourselves
    No no, no. @darkage suggested 6 to 7 years after her first GE win. I was clarifying his statement. Personally I would be surprised if she can win the first. If she can she is very impressive.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    "Keep(s) going for 6-7 years" after an election? That means she wins a minimum of two elections in that case.
    Yeah I meant 6-7 years in total, she just gets through the next election with a reduced majority but keeps going. I could easily see this happening. In the John Major/1992 analogy, there are also similarities between Starmer and Kinnock, IE he took on the far left but can't win an election.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 5,378

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    Be careful, Darkage. Remember this is a betting site. We would not want you injured by the stampede of punters anxious to place their bets with you.

    The sound and serious point behind your view is that Labour really need to make some progress in Scotland to win an overall majority. There isn't much sign of that yet. It could happen though, and even if it doesn't a Tory meltdown would do it on its own. The polls are currently unreliable but they are hinting that Conservative support may be down to bedrock at about 30%. That would just about do it for Labour.

    I'm reluctantly inclined to agree with out footsore flintknapping friend Leon. The Tories are cattle trucked.
    Id say if they are currently at bedrock 30, much will depend on how much 'fear of labour' hardens the vote. E.g. does it take things from 42 30 majority to (say) 39 34 very hung? Either way opposition looms of course
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,054
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    What madman liked this post? :D
    Its a good point though.
    People think that 'Putin is being pushed back', and that 'Russia poses no conventional military threat to Europe'; but they just haven't thought it through.
    We have.

    Putin being pushed back doesn't threaten nuclear war.

    If Putin tried to suggest launching nukes when his Generals know he has lost a crazy war, he would be on a crash course of learning how to fly from an upper story window faster than you can say defenestration.
    This is complete speculation, because we know almost nothing about the generals and what is going on inside the Kremlin. Certainly there is a longstanding idea that no one would execute the order to start a nuclear war, but as for 'tactical nukes', then I think that this is actually part of Russian Military Doctrine, that they can be used to defend land that they claim; and I think this is probably behind the original comment about fear of tactical nuclear escalation.

    All goes back to the discussion earlier; 'careful what you wish for'.
    Early on in the war, we were all talking about how the oligarchs wouldn't stand to see their fortunes sanctioned, how some sort of palace coup was inevitable, and so on. But all the evidence from the last few months suggests that Putin is in complete control of both government and military and nobody dares oppose him.

    Would anyone in his government or armed forces oppose him if he ordered the use of a battlefield nuke? I'd argue that, based on what we've seen, no.

    The question then becomes, would he be mad enough to issue the order? The answer probably lies in his calculation of what the west would do in response. Would we intervene with boots on the ground? How quickly could such a situation escalate into a full-blown nuclear exchange? If he rightly or wrongly assumes we wouldn't dare escalate, then it's his only trump card in a battle he can't otherwise win. A way to tell the world - "do as I say, because now the gloves are off".

    Unfortunately I have to concur with Tims' original comment - that the risk of nuclear escalation is the highest it's been since the conflict began.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    What madman liked this post? :D
    Its a good point though.
    People think that 'Putin is being pushed back', and that 'Russia poses no conventional military threat to Europe'; but they just haven't thought it through.
    We have.

    Putin being pushed back doesn't threaten nuclear war.

    If Putin tried to suggest launching nukes when his Generals know he has lost a crazy war, he would be on a crash course of learning how to fly from an upper story window faster than you can say defenestration.
    This is complete speculation, because we know almost nothing about the generals and what is going on inside the Kremlin. Certainly there is a longstanding idea that no one would execute the order to start a nuclear war, but as for 'tactical nukes', then I think that this is actually part of Russian Military Doctrine, that they can be used to defend land that they claim; and I think this is probably behind the original comment about fear of tactical nuclear escalation.

    All goes back to the discussion earlier; 'careful
    what you wish for'.
    Yes, I was just stating an opinion of the facts rather than a policy position. Clearly Ukraine needs to keep pushing as hard as it can.

    If the Russian regime panics and Putin starts to fear getting too close to upper floor windows then he / they may be tempted to do something stupid.

    It’ll only happen after some weeks of threat and blackmail. In which case NATO needs to be crystal clear about what such an escalation would mean: the complete annihilation of Russia (and by extension of course, most of the rest of the Northern hemisphere). That’s the point of MAD.
  • TimS said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    It's a decent start by Liz in the face of exceptionally difficult circumstances.
    I think PB is perhaps in danger of overanalysing the content of speeches rather than the general mood music.

    Electorate seems to be saying time for a change. And Liz has, overnight, neutralised the biggest attack line on Keir, that he’s wooden and unexciting.

    She may have also neutralised the time for a change demands too though.

    It will take time to see. Anyone who says anything for certain now is only trying to convince themselves, the future is unwritten and unclear.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829
    edited September 9

    TimS said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    It's a decent start by Liz in the face of exceptionally difficult circumstances.
    I think PB is perhaps in danger of overanalysing.

    Electorate seems to be saying time for a change. And Liz has, overnight, neutralised the biggest attack line on Keir, that he’s wooden and unexciting.

    Liz is going to win if the economy is in good shape and things are going well. It won't be because of personality
    That is 100% true. Good luck with "if the economy is in good shape", mind.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,847
    edited September 9
    Outside of rare occasions I don't believe in political comebacks. A view gets set and the things you do don't shift it all that much, even if they should. Being relatively unknown even as a senior politicians means a new PM has a chance, but not a great one. I think TimS has it right that its about the mood music more than anything else.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144

    TimS said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    It's a decent start by Liz in the face of exceptionally difficult circumstances.
    I think PB is perhaps in danger of overanalysing.

    Electorate seems to be saying time for a change. And Liz has, overnight, neutralised the biggest attack line on Keir, that he’s wooden and unexciting.

    Liz is going to win if the economy is in good
    shape and things are going well. It won't be because of personality
    I don’t agree. When the economy is in good shape people feel more at liberty to vote fir a change. See 1997.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 630
    Some (most?) of you will like this Scott Stantis cartoon:
    https://tribunecontentagency.com/article/20220907edstc-a-tif/
    Which had the misfortune to be published in the Washington Post two days ago.

    (Stantis is an interesting fellow. As well as drawing editorial cartoons (many of which I like), he draws a regular comic strip, Prickly City, featuring Carmen, a conservative (now Libertarian) African-American girl, and Winslow, a liberal coyote in the desert: https://www.gocomics.com/pricklycity/2022/09/09 It seems to draw more readers who are annoyed with it, than do most comic strips.)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,315

    Seems like we're onto Corbyn levels of "it will get better" now.

    It never did, he never got very popular, he never won.

    I think they're done

    You're a keen politics-watcher, and not a natural Truss fan. Go on your own feelings - if you're getting used to her, and even favourable to her, everyone else who's less impacted by politics will follow.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829
    ...
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    It's a decent start by Liz in the face of exceptionally difficult circumstances.
    I think PB is perhaps in danger of overanalysing.

    Electorate seems to be saying time for a change. And Liz has, overnight, neutralised the biggest attack line on Keir, that he’s wooden and unexciting.

    Liz is going to win if the economy is in good
    shape and things are going well. It won't be because of personality
    I don’t agree. When the economy is in good shape people feel more at liberty to vote fir a change. See 1997.
    1997 ran against the grain. I'm with Bill Clinton.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,849
    If they really needed to film the meeting of Truss and the King then Truss needs to learn how to curtsey or bow - the King must have been thinking WTF
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829
    Just caught up with IDS Auden. What a prick!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,315
    We dodged Mordaunt, who I really liked, but who we now know would have had a very difficult time for reasons that are not her fault. We dodged Sunak, who whilst he had many personal qualities, would have taken a 'take your medicine' approach to recession and economic contraction, and been even worse. We mocked Truss (I did anyway), but actually we've ended up with someone who is passionate about our country prospering, and is prepared to have a scrap if necessary. It shows fate knows a lot better than we do at times.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 18,315

    I'm not fussed if Truss can't emote.

    I'm not fussed if she seems wooden.

    I'm not fussed about the significance or otherwise of her bloody necklace.

    What I am fussed about is that she is a right-wing ideologue

    I know - isn't it glorious?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829

    Seems like we're onto Corbyn levels of "it will get better" now.

    It never did, he never got very popular, he never won.

    I think they're done

    You're a keen politics-watcher, and not a natural Truss fan. Go on your own feelings - if you're getting used to her, and even favourable to her, everyone else who's less impacted by politics will follow.
    One can admire he way she has conducted herself under the difficult circumstances she has endured over the last 24 hours, but without wishing to vote for her.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 78,847

    TimS said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    It's a decent start by Liz in the face of exceptionally difficult circumstances.
    I think PB is perhaps in danger of overanalysing.

    Electorate seems to be saying time for a change. And Liz has, overnight, neutralised the biggest attack line on Keir, that he’s wooden and unexciting.

    Liz is going to win if the economy is in good shape and things are going well. It won't be because of personality
    That is 100% true. Good luck with "if the economy is in good shape", mind.
    Even if it is, if people have had a bad time in the preceding years they may not be feeling like its in good shape. They don't care if economists say we're in recession or not in recession by margins of this or that tenth of a percent or whatever. Currently I'd say a lot of people feel like economically things are in the shit, and they probably will for quite awhile. The memory of that may well do for Truss even if things pick up.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829
    kle4 said:

    TimS said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    It's a decent start by Liz in the face of exceptionally difficult circumstances.
    I think PB is perhaps in danger of overanalysing.

    Electorate seems to be saying time for a change. And Liz has, overnight, neutralised the biggest attack line on Keir, that he’s wooden and unexciting.

    Liz is going to win if the economy is in good shape and things are going well. It won't be because of personality
    That is 100% true. Good luck with "if the economy is in good shape", mind.
    Even if it is, if people have had a bad time in the preceding years they may not be feeling like its in good shape. They don't care if economists say we're in recession or not in recession by margins of this or that tenth of a percent or whatever. Currently I'd say a lot of people feel like economically things are in the shit, and they probably will for quite awhile. The memory of that may well do for Truss even if things pick up.
    Fair comment.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707
    TimS said:

    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    RobD said:

    TimS said:

    Risk of tactical nuclear escalation is probably the highest it’s been since March.

    What madman liked this post? :D
    Its a good point though.
    People think that 'Putin is being pushed back', and that 'Russia poses no conventional military threat to Europe'; but they just haven't thought it through.
    We have.

    Putin being pushed back doesn't threaten nuclear war.

    If Putin tried to suggest launching nukes when his Generals know he has lost a crazy war, he would be on a crash course of learning how to fly from an upper story window faster than you can say defenestration.
    This is complete speculation, because we know almost nothing about the generals and what is going on inside the Kremlin. Certainly there is a longstanding idea that no one would execute the order to start a nuclear war, but as for 'tactical nukes', then I think that this is actually part of Russian Military Doctrine, that they can be used to defend land that they claim; and I think this is probably behind the original comment about fear of tactical nuclear escalation.

    All goes back to the discussion earlier; 'careful
    what you wish for'.
    Yes, I was just stating an opinion of the facts rather than a policy position. Clearly Ukraine needs to keep pushing as hard as it can.

    If the Russian regime panics and Putin starts to fear getting too close to upper floor windows then he / they may be tempted to do something stupid.

    It’ll only happen after some weeks of threat and blackmail. In which case NATO needs to be crystal clear about what such an escalation would mean: the complete annihilation of Russia (and by extension of course, most of the rest of the Northern hemisphere). That’s the point of MAD.
    I don't know about the last point. I was listening to Oliver Stone on the Lex Fridman podcast. He came out (as i recall) with the suggestion that the US could nuke the Donbass as a false flag. It got me thinking that Russia could alternatively set off a battlefield nuke and suggest it was a NATO false flag. Things could escalate that way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    Hopefully Truss' response to this week's events will give her some gravitas. While her cost of living proposals will make a difference
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829

    I'm not fussed if Truss can't emote.

    I'm not fussed if she seems wooden.

    I'm not fussed about the significance or otherwise of her bloody necklace.

    What I am fussed about is that she is a right-wing ideologue

    I know - isn't it glorious?
    No.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 4,849
    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully Truss' response to this week's events will give her some gravitas. While her cost of living proposals will make a difference

    I think she has been overshadowed somewhat by Boris Johnsons speech to parliament about the Queen which was one of his best .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    darkage said:

    darkage said:

    Leon said:

    I rather like her. And I think she would be a good PM in “normal” times

    But she is sailing into overwhelming headwinds and, after 12 years, the public wants the Tories out. That’s it. Sunak would not have done any better. The Tories are doomed

    I am not so sure about this. The problem is always, if you look at it from a labour point of view, how do they get the numbers to get a majority? Where do they need to hold and where do they need to win?

    I think that Truss could well win a general election and then do a John major and keep going for 6-7 years.
    "Keep(s) going for 6-7 years" after an election? That means she wins a minimum of two elections in that case.
    Yeah I meant 6-7 years in total, she just gets through the next election with a reduced majority but keeps going. I could easily see this happening. In the John Major/1992 analogy, there are also similarities between Starmer and Kinnock, IE he took on the far left but can't win an election.
    Though on the same analogy Truss is less centrist and liked than Major and Starmer has more gravitas than Kinnock
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707

    We dodged Mordaunt, who I really liked, but who we now know would have had a very difficult time for reasons that are not her fault. We dodged Sunak, who whilst he had many personal qualities, would have taken a 'take your medicine' approach to recession and economic contraction, and been even worse. We mocked Truss (I did anyway), but actually we've ended up with someone who is passionate about our country prospering, and is prepared to have a scrap if necessary. It shows fate knows a lot better than we do at times.

    It is possibly a bit early to conclude that, I think; given that we have just added 150bn to the national debt. It might work in terms of boosting confidence, but may not be entirely consistent with the country prospering.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    edited September 9
    Could I point out something to the ludicrous Dynamo on the last thread who wanted a referendum on the monarchy on the basis of one poll with a landslide 61% still in favour of the monarchy.

    Having the best known Royal family in the world is about the only thing left we as the United Kingdom still lead the world in. It would be absurd to give it up
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036
    edited September 9
    Having been appointed PM precisely three days ago, and having considered all the evidence, I have come to a considered opinion on how well Truss will do:

    I don't have a clue. And nor, I believe, does anybody else (notwithstanding a steady first three days).
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636

    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully Truss' response to this week's events will give her some gravitas. While her cost of living proposals will make a difference

    I think she has been overshadowed somewhat by Boris Johnsons speech to parliament about the Queen which was one of his best .
    Are most people watching the speeches? I know lots of ardent monarchists around here, who are properly sad - as as quite a few non-monarchists - but I don't know anyone who is following all the eulogies and retrospectives - everyone says it's just too much, and *especially* when they're sad. Quite a few saw Charles, and catch oddments on the radio, but most seem to be putting it aside for their private lives.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486
    HYUFD said:

    Could I point out something to the ludicrous Dynamo on the last thread who wanted a referendum on the monarchy on the basis of one poll with a landslide 61% still in favour of the monarchy.

    Having the best known Royal family in the world is about the only thing left we as the United Kingdom still lead the world in. It would be ludicrous to give it up

    I think we have had enough of referendums for a good many years now.


This discussion has been closed.