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Muddying the Waters on BoJo’s £130k legal bill – politicalbetting.com

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,219
    edited September 2022
    In local news, tomorrow sees the end of a week long strike by refuse collectors in Newham. In many ways, we've been fortunate as the weather has cooled off and while there are piles of rubbish around some houses (and you can tell which are significantly overcrowded by the amount of rubbish produced), the fly tipping service has been augmented by some street cleaners who've not struck and has just about held the line in terms of stopping rubbish piling up on street corners.

    The Council has come out on the attack:

    https://www.newham.gov.uk/news/article/905/update-on-strike-action-in-the-waste-and-recycling-service

    The root cause is Newham's waste collectors were paid less than the equivalent in the likes of Redbridge, Hackney, Tower Hamlets and Havering and that the Council's 14% "offer" only claws back some of that differential.

    I was once told civilisation was only three square meals away from anarchy - I'm not sure about that but, as we've seen in Edinburgh, a prolonged absence of rubbish collection rapidly makes life less than pleasant and it also illustrates one of the facets of the housing crisis we don't talk about - the new London slums, the ordinary semi-detached houses with 12-14 people living in them. That's a whole other issue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    Interesting article in the Times about Truss' family background. Her father is apparently 'so horrified by his daughter’s politics — “I think he’s extremely saddened about it and sometimes furious” — that he can barely bring himself to speak about it. Colleagues at Leeds University are said to have been sent an email by the university warning them not to speak publicly about his daughter.'
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-profile-parents-family-school-kcxznq2wb

  • Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    An Oirish expert as I live and breath.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 14,014
    So Johnson couldn't be bothered turning up for work in his last two months, nor lift a finger to help people deal with their truly scary fuel bills. But he could very much be bothered to splash 100K of our cash on a specious legal "opinion" to prevent his own dodgy behaviour being investigated.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,219
    To help out the debate on Irish immigration, some other data:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/537502/immigrant-population-of-ireland/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    edited September 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    Do a Twitter search. It's fascinating. A lot of Irish people are deeply upset, housing is in crisis, there has been a horrible spate of violent crimes associated with migrants, and a few Irish pundits have begun to talk about "an Aussie style points system". I kid you not

    Did anyone on PB realise that an Iranian Muslim guy beheaded and castrated two Irish gay guys in Sligo in April? I certainly didn't

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sligo-suspect-planned-to-kill-more-men-in-the-coming-days-33hlwh67d


    https://news.sky.com/story/sligo-man-in-his-20s-charged-with-murders-of-two-men-in-irish-town-12590072


    As I said, trouble ahead
    That'd be why SF are leading the polls then

    Not for long, I suggest, if this enormous wave of migration continues, and the SF remain so in favour of open borders


    It's an entirely new situation for Ireland, it has nearly always been a country of emigration, so it will take time to impact, politically

    But for a vision of Ireland in the future, see Sweden or Italy, both close to electing hard right coalitions, on the back of migration/crime issues



    https://www.ft.com/content/67b9104d-f988-41d1-afb3-78f9baa579a5

    "Swedes have become all too familiar with gun violence. But the shooting of a mother and her child at a playground in central Sweden last week has provided an even more shocking and violent backdrop to the country’s parliamentary elections on September 11.

    “It’s getting worse and worse in terms of violent crimes. It worries people,” said Torsten Elofsson, a former Malmö police chief who is now a candidate for the centre-right Christian Democrats."


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491

    Teeny bit of Cliff Richard is the British Elvis vibe


    I'm getting more of a soul kind of feel

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    According to this net migration to Ireland was:

    2021 +11k
    2020 +29k
    2019 +34k
    2018 +34k
    2017 +20k
    2016 +16k
    2015 +6k
    2014 -9k
    2013 -19k
    2012 -26k
    2011 -27k

    https://emn.ie/immigration-decreases-by-nearly-24-in-year-to-april-2021/#:~:text=The number of emigrants also,compared to +28,900 in 2020.
    It looks like Leon has the figures for immigration rather than net immigration, so not a very deep dive.

    Some interesting points in that link:

    "Of the 65,200 people who migrated to Ireland in the year to April 2021, some 30,200 (46.3%) were estimated to be Irish nationals, the highest returning number of Irish nationals since 2007. Of the 54,000 emigrants from Ireland, 22,800 (42.2%) were estimated to be Irish nationals. Consequently, Ireland experienced net inward migration of Irish nationals, rising to +7,300 in 2021 from 500 in 2020."

    And:

    "Inflows of non-EU nationals declined to 14,100 in the year to April 2021, from 30,400 the previous year, a decrease of 16,300 (-53.6%)"

  • Teeny bit of Cliff Richard is the British Elvis vibe


    Funny you should mention Cliff - was blasting out 'Wired For Sound' for no reason the other day. Full on miming like I was roller skating around a Milton Keynes shopping precinct.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782
    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    According to this net migration to Ireland was:

    2021 +11k
    2020 +29k
    2019 +34k
    2018 +34k
    2017 +20k
    2016 +16k
    2015 +6k
    2014 -9k
    2013 -19k
    2012 -26k
    2011 -27k

    https://emn.ie/immigration-decreases-by-nearly-24-in-year-to-april-2021/#:~:text=The number of emigrants also,compared to +28,900 in 2020.
    It looks like Leon has the figures for immigration rather than net immigration, so not a very deep dive.

    Some interesting points in that link:

    "Of the 65,200 people who migrated to Ireland in the year to April 2021, some 30,200 (46.3%) were estimated to be Irish nationals, the highest returning number of Irish nationals since 2007. Of the 54,000 emigrants from Ireland, 22,800 (42.2%) were estimated to be Irish nationals. Consequently, Ireland experienced net inward migration of Irish nationals, rising to +7,300 in 2021 from 500 in 2020."

    And:

    "Inflows of non-EU nationals declined to 14,100 in the year to April 2021, from 30,400 the previous year, a decrease of 16,300 (-53.6%)"

    No, I was quoting the official Irish stats board for the latest year, ending April 2022:


    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2022/

    62,000 net migration. Knock yourself out
  • HYUFD said:

    Interesting article in the Times about Truss' family background. Her father is apparently 'so horrified by his daughter’s politics — “I think he’s extremely saddened about it and sometimes furious” — that he can barely bring himself to speak about it. Colleagues at Leeds University are said to have been sent an email by the university warning them not to speak publicly about his daughter.'
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-profile-parents-family-school-kcxznq2wb

    No one has told him yet then that his daughter is a deep sleeper Liberal agent?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,230
    edited September 2022
    Ireland being about to go hard right is a somewhat interesting revolutionary take
    Meanwhile Britain is prospering mightily from 12 years of wise Tory government.
  • Teeny bit of Cliff Richard is the British Elvis vibe


    Funny you should mention Cliff - was blasting out 'Wired For Sound' for no reason the other day. Full on miming like I was roller skating around a Milton Keynes shopping precinct.
    I trust you were also rocking the leather trews.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,732
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    Do a Twitter search. It's fascinating. A lot of Irish people are deeply upset, housing is in crisis, there has been a horrible spate of violent crimes associated with migrants, and a few Irish pundits have begun to talk about "an Aussie style points system". I kid you not

    Did anyone on PB realise that an Iranian Muslim guy beheaded and castrated two Irish gay guys in Sligo in April? I certainly didn't

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sligo-suspect-planned-to-kill-more-men-in-the-coming-days-33hlwh67d


    https://news.sky.com/story/sligo-man-in-his-20s-charged-with-murders-of-two-men-in-irish-town-12590072


    As I said, trouble ahead
    That'd be why SF are leading the polls then

    Not for long, I suggest, if this enormous wave of migration continues, and the SF remain so in favour of open borders


    It's an entirely new situation for Ireland, it has nearly always been a country of emigration, so it will take time to impact, politically

    But for a vision of Ireland in the future, see Sweden or Italy, both close to electing hard right coalitions, on the back of migration/crime issues



    https://www.ft.com/content/67b9104d-f988-41d1-afb3-78f9baa579a5

    "Swedes have become all too familiar with gun violence. But the shooting of a mother and her child at a playground in central Sweden last week has provided an even more shocking and violent backdrop to the country’s parliamentary elections on September 11.

    “It’s getting worse and worse in terms of violent crimes. It worries people,” said Torsten Elofsson, a former Malmö police chief who is now a candidate for the centre-right Christian Democrats."


    I see we are on to "The Great Replacement Theory" now. Time to tune out.
  • stodge said:

    In Sweden, the latest Novus poll is very good for the centre-right bloc showing them on 51.8% with the centre-left on 47.4% which would mean a decisive victory and presumably a Sweden Democrat-led Government as they would be the largest of the four parties in the centre-right bloc.

    Not a cat in hell's chance.

    Jimmie Åkesson will never be prime minister.

    Not unless and until he wins a parliamentary majority outright. Which is never going to happen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    Never happening.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    According to this net migration to Ireland was:

    2021 +11k
    2020 +29k
    2019 +34k
    2018 +34k
    2017 +20k
    2016 +16k
    2015 +6k
    2014 -9k
    2013 -19k
    2012 -26k
    2011 -27k

    https://emn.ie/immigration-decreases-by-nearly-24-in-year-to-april-2021/#:~:text=The number of emigrants also,compared to +28,900 in 2020.
    It looks like Leon has the figures for immigration rather than net immigration, so not a very deep dive.

    Some interesting points in that link:

    "Of the 65,200 people who migrated to Ireland in the year to April 2021, some 30,200 (46.3%) were estimated to be Irish nationals, the highest returning number of Irish nationals since 2007. Of the 54,000 emigrants from Ireland, 22,800 (42.2%) were estimated to be Irish nationals. Consequently, Ireland experienced net inward migration of Irish nationals, rising to +7,300 in 2021 from 500 in 2020."

    And:

    "Inflows of non-EU nationals declined to 14,100 in the year to April 2021, from 30,400 the previous year, a decrease of 16,300 (-53.6%)"

    That's just COVID though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    dixiedean said:

    Ireland being about to go hard right is a somewhat interesting revolutionary take
    Meanwhile Britain is prospering mightily from 12 years of wise Tory government.

    What do you think happens in countries which get a huge, unexpected influx of immigration, causing problems with housing, crime and so on? Do they veer left?

    This isn't advanced quantum physics; Ireland is not unique and different to every other western democracy
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    Increase immigrants too rapidly and Scotland itself would find rapidly rising house prices because of excess demand
  • Teeny bit of Cliff Richard is the British Elvis vibe


    Funny you should mention Cliff - was blasting out 'Wired For Sound' for no reason the other day. Full on miming like I was roller skating around a Milton Keynes shopping precinct.
    I trust you were also rocking the leather trews.
    At the dry cleaners.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782
    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    Increase immigrants too rapidly and Scotland itself would find rapidly rising house prices because of excess demand
    I live in Edinburgh, you don't need to explain this stuff to me.
  • Hold on, we’ve been assured ad nauseum by the Brexit herd on here that Brexit had nothing to do with immigration.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    edited September 2022
    Eabhal said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    According to this net migration to Ireland was:

    2021 +11k
    2020 +29k
    2019 +34k
    2018 +34k
    2017 +20k
    2016 +16k
    2015 +6k
    2014 -9k
    2013 -19k
    2012 -26k
    2011 -27k

    https://emn.ie/immigration-decreases-by-nearly-24-in-year-to-april-2021/#:~:text=The number of emigrants also,compared to +28,900 in 2020.
    It looks like Leon has the figures for immigration rather than net immigration, so not a very deep dive.

    Some interesting points in that link:

    "Of the 65,200 people who migrated to Ireland in the year to April 2021, some 30,200 (46.3%) were estimated to be Irish nationals, the highest returning number of Irish nationals since 2007. Of the 54,000 emigrants from Ireland, 22,800 (42.2%) were estimated to be Irish nationals. Consequently, Ireland experienced net inward migration of Irish nationals, rising to +7,300 in 2021 from 500 in 2020."

    And:

    "Inflows of non-EU nationals declined to 14,100 in the year to April 2021, from 30,400 the previous year, a decrease of 16,300 (-53.6%)"

    That's just COVID though.
    @foxy indeed has got hold of the wrong stats. Not very reassuring in a "doctor"

    The latest stats for 2022 are here:

    https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2022/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    stodge said:

    In Sweden, the latest Novus poll is very good for the centre-right bloc showing them on 51.8% with the centre-left on 47.4% which would mean a decisive victory and presumably a Sweden Democrat-led Government as they would be the largest of the four parties in the centre-right bloc.

    Not a cat in hell's chance.

    Jimmie Åkesson will never be prime minister.

    Not unless and until he wins a parliamentary majority outright. Which is never going to happen.
    Even if he doesn't he would be the kingmaker on current polls in the formation of the next government
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    Do a Twitter search. It's fascinating. A lot of Irish people are deeply upset, housing is in crisis, there has been a horrible spate of violent crimes associated with migrants, and a few Irish pundits have begun to talk about "an Aussie style points system". I kid you not

    Did anyone on PB realise that an Iranian Muslim guy beheaded and castrated two Irish gay guys in Sligo in April? I certainly didn't

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sligo-suspect-planned-to-kill-more-men-in-the-coming-days-33hlwh67d


    https://news.sky.com/story/sligo-man-in-his-20s-charged-with-murders-of-two-men-in-irish-town-12590072


    As I said, trouble ahead
    That'd be why SF are leading the polls then

    Not for long, I suggest, if this enormous wave of migration continues, and the SF remain so in favour of open borders


    It's an entirely new situation for Ireland, it has nearly always been a country of emigration, so it will take time to impact, politically

    But for a vision of Ireland in the future, see Sweden or Italy, both close to electing hard right coalitions, on the back of migration/crime issues



    https://www.ft.com/content/67b9104d-f988-41d1-afb3-78f9baa579a5

    "Swedes have become all too familiar with gun violence. But the shooting of a mother and her child at a playground in central Sweden last week has provided an even more shocking and violent backdrop to the country’s parliamentary elections on September 11.

    “It’s getting worse and worse in terms of violent crimes. It worries people,” said Torsten Elofsson, a former Malmö police chief who is now a candidate for the centre-right Christian Democrats."


    I see we are on to "The Great Replacement Theory" now. Time to tune out.
    Good idea, after your embarrassing error with the basic numbers
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    @DuncanWeldon

    British politics & economic policy is remarkably straightforward right now: Either the government will pay this bill or it won’t. https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1565786764140322818/photo/1
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,219
    Just to help out on Irish polling.

    At the February 2020 election, the three Government parties (FF, FG and the Greens) got 50.2% and SF 24.5%

    The last poll I've seen has the Government parties on 43% (FF the biggest losers) and SF on 36% so that's a healthy swing to Sinn Fein yet the fact is it's hard to see how SF could form a Government as most of the other parties in the Dail (it seems) would work together to keep them out.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    Do a Twitter search. It's fascinating. A lot of Irish people are deeply upset, housing is in crisis, there has been a horrible spate of violent crimes associated with migrants, and a few Irish pundits have begun to talk about "an Aussie style points system". I kid you not

    Did anyone on PB realise that an Iranian Muslim guy beheaded and castrated two Irish gay guys in Sligo in April? I certainly didn't

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sligo-suspect-planned-to-kill-more-men-in-the-coming-days-33hlwh67d


    https://news.sky.com/story/sligo-man-in-his-20s-charged-with-murders-of-two-men-in-irish-town-12590072


    As I said, trouble ahead
    That'd be why SF are leading the polls then

    Not for long, I suggest, if this enormous wave of migration continues, and the SF remain so in favour of open borders


    It's an entirely new situation for Ireland, it has nearly always been a country of emigration, so it will take time to impact, politically

    But for a vision of Ireland in the future, see Sweden or Italy, both close to electing hard right coalitions, on the back of migration/crime issues



    https://www.ft.com/content/67b9104d-f988-41d1-afb3-78f9baa579a5

    "Swedes have become all too familiar with gun violence. But the shooting of a mother and her child at a playground in central Sweden last week has provided an even more shocking and violent backdrop to the country’s parliamentary elections on September 11.

    “It’s getting worse and worse in terms of violent crimes. It worries people,” said Torsten Elofsson, a former Malmö police chief who is now a candidate for the centre-right Christian Democrats."


    I see we are on to "The Great Replacement Theory" now. Time to tune out.
    Good idea, after your embarrassing error with the basic numbers
    Someone made an interesting point about EU migration v other international migration above.

    Maybe the great irony is that many people voted to the leave the EU because they felt swamped by non-EU immigration.

    And now have massive increases in non-EU immigration as a result. With all the EU migrants heading to Ireland.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,219

    stodge said:

    In Sweden, the latest Novus poll is very good for the centre-right bloc showing them on 51.8% with the centre-left on 47.4% which would mean a decisive victory and presumably a Sweden Democrat-led Government as they would be the largest of the four parties in the centre-right bloc.

    Not a cat in hell's chance.

    Jimmie Åkesson will never be prime minister.

    Not unless and until he wins a parliamentary majority outright. Which is never going to happen.
    So what happens IF the centre-right bloc gets most votes and the Sweden Democrats get most seats within that bloc? It's going to be hard to keep the Sweden Democrats out of the Government unless the Moderates and the Liberals jump ship and line up with the Social Democrats.

    As you have said, Kristersson seems to have fallen into the same trap with the Sweden Democrats as Casado in Spain did with VOX.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782
    Did anyone on here refuse to pay the poll tax? How did that work? Could we see the same with energy?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,112
    EPG said:

    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    Cookie said:

    boulay said:

    On topic if he gets out there spouting his legal opinion it will cause chaos.

    Pannick on the streets of London
    Pannick on the streets of Birmingham
    I wonder to myself
    Could life ever be sane again?

    Hang the BJ, Hang the BJ
    As everyone gets their Utility Bills next month: Heaven knows I'm miserable now.
    That joke isn’t funny anymore.
    Boris's whole career has been bigmouth strikes again.
    And, in his imagination at least, Bigmouth will strike again.
    On the subject of all this, I this morning overheard my 12 year old daughter tell Alexa to play 'There is a light that never goes out'.
    Apparently she's got into the Smiths.
    I'm not sure how to feel about this. On the one hand, I love the Smiths. On the other, she's a 12 year old girl and the Smiths split up 35 years ago. It would be like me, as a 12 year old in 1987, getting into, I don't know, Rosemary Clooney.
    My 18 year old is a fanatic.
    He bought me Johnny Marr tickets earlier in the Summer so he'd have someone to go with.
    Good lad.
    The Smiths are perfect for angsty teens.

    Marr covers the old stuff well. Sings better than Morrisey too!
    She's the least angsty teen you could meet. So far, at least. But she does like a well-crafted lyric and she does like a jangly guitar.

    I've seen the Smyths a couple of times and I'd heartily recommend them. As authentic an experience as you're realistically likely to get, nowadays. Not-Moz is spot on, stopping just short of parody; and as a group they are pretty tight.
    A gentle nudge toward the REMs may be called for.
    She's probably aware of the more accessible end of REM.
    Since the girls were young, I've been making car playlists - trying to find music that the wife and I like which will be vaguely accessible to small children. (It's either that or bloody Disney soundtracks.) Obviously Shiny Happy People fell inyo that category. And I've added things over the years, so there's a few more they know now. But I think my oldest has been more guided this last couple of years by Spotify algorithms. Which have led from Lovejoy to the Wombats to the Smiths without any intervention at all from me. I have no doubt REM can't be too far over the horizon.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,230
    Ireland has two centuries of catastrophic emigration.
    They now have immigration
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    dixiedean said:

    Ireland has two centuries of catastrophic emigration.
    They now have immigration

    Which is quite possibly a good thing (it is not always a good thing)

    I have never claimed otherwise

    What I am saying is that when this happens at great speed, and the immigrants are often from cultures very different to the host nation, this brings inevitable political pressures to stop the flow: usually by electing much more right wing governments (or left wing governments which are firmly rightwing on this issue)

    Cf also Denmark, Le Pen's party in France, and so on
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,914
    boulay said:

    kle4 said:

    I can already see the argument being made that if the investigation goes nowhere, of if there is procedural unfairness which scuppers ir (rightly), that means nothing Boris did was ever a problem in the first place.

    Save our strength and distract with something else instead. Civilization 6 Platinum edition is going for £13 right now, that'll do.

    I honestly think he’s not Trump 2 looking for a comeback. He will suddenly look at the financial uplift he gets from speeches, tv etc etc and love it. Love the foreign adventures without the wife whilst on book tours, love the freedom to not have to be available 24/7.

    His ego will love people clamouring for his return but he will be like someone who loves the knowledge their ex wants them back, gets the rush from being wanted but also prefers being with the wealthy new girl who lets him do whatever he wants when he wants.

    He won’t come back once he has freedom but knowing he’s wanted and loved will be enough.
    Disagree. That's the false romantic view of the man. Truth is he's a tawdry void and will be lost without politics. I predict he'll hang around hoping and plotting. Then when it doesn't work he'll spend what's left of his life haunted by irrecoverable glory days, locked into a futile search for meaning and some sort of consoling narrative to explain everything ... just like the rest of us.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
  • Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    Increase immigrants too rapidly and Scotland itself would find rapidly rising house prices because of excess demand
    I live in Edinburgh, you don't need to explain this stuff to me.
    You’re a stats guy, how much inward immigration to Edinburgh is from England?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,248

    Hold on, we’ve been assured ad nauseum by the Brexit herd on here that Brexit had nothing to do with immigration.

    They lie on forums, they lie on buses, they even lie about caring about immigration because a bunch of them were migrants themselves to such wholesome destinations as, well, Thailand.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,547
    edited September 2022
    ping said:

    @DuncanWeldon

    British politics & economic policy is remarkably straightforward right now: Either the government will pay this bill or it won’t. https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1565786764140322818/photo/1

    As Duncan (who is brilliant) well knows, that is not the only question.

    Other questions include,

    - How big will Liz’s tax cuts be and to what extent will they be focused on the least well off who are at the sharpest end of energy prices?

    - How much will the BoE need to hike rates to compensate for inflationary fiscal policy?

    - To what extent will government spending enable more rapid transition to solar, wind etc to avoid these circumstances happening in the future?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491
    Cyclefree said:

    I have worked professionally with David Pannick and Peters & Peters. I was also at Slaughter and May for seven and a half years.

    The Pannick advice is not his best work. The characterisation of what the Committee is doing in the opinion, is, how can I put this, not accurate. When I went back and checked with the actual documents, I thought to myself .... hmmm ....

    Put it this way, if this had been written by my team, I'd have asked them to go back and rewrite various sections in order to be scrupulously accurate. You undermine a case by overstating or inaccurately stating the factual basis for your legal analysis. The section on anonymous witnesses (whistleblowers) is particularly poor and disingenuous.

    The most charitable explanation is that they have put together the best case they can to reach the conclusion the client would like to hear.

    I would very much like to see the instructions given to Peters & Peters and by them to Counsel.

    Also how this was authorised within government, by whom and on what basis.

    It's done its work though - Truss has what she needs to do anything to protect Boris if she feels like doing a Paterson (if it gets that far - I still feel like Boris would be set for a lesser punishmenton a lesser allegation), since Pannick and co are not complete mugs, or she can hang him out to dry if she wants.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    Irish house prices (not inflation adjusted) are only just back to where they were in 2008:



    Look at that post-GFC collapse - from 165 to 72 in five years. That must have been horrendous for those who bought near the top.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,219
    Just to help out on the Irish Net Migration figures.

    Running a query on the website to which @Leon linked.

    46,300 of the 61,100 came from countries other than the EU, UK, Canada, Australia and the US.

    There's no breakdown of that by country (23 countries apparently).

    Net migration from the core EU was 3,300 and just under 7,000 from the post-2004 accession countries.

  • rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another country “sneaks” ahead of the UK’s standard of living. It’s becoming a thing. NZ is not far behind, nor is Estonia.
  • ping said:

    @DuncanWeldon

    British politics & economic policy is remarkably straightforward right now: Either the government will pay this bill or it won’t. https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1565786764140322818/photo/1

    As Duncan (who is brilliant) well knows, that is not the only question.

    Other questions include,

    - How big will Liz’s tax cuts be and to what extent will they be focused on the least well off who are the sharpest end of energy prices?

    - How much will the BoE need to hike rates to compensate for inflationary macro policy?

    - To what extent will government spending enable more rapid transition to solar, wind etc to avoid these circumstances happening in the future?
    A Labour-aligned economist from the IPPR thinks that her plans are not crazy and interest rates won't have to rise as much as predicted.

    https://twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1565338925056417792
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    They do have the right to residence under the CTA. Did you mean the right to a passport? I remember one Tory lord claiming that, I think.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another issue is that Ireland has practically zero experience of non-white, non-Christian immigration - unlike the UK which has known it for 70 years, at least

    In that, Eire is more like Denmark or Sweden. And it might have the same political impact as in Denmark or Sweden
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460
    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    There was a report on the news on TV this evening - a girl who couldn’t find a houseshare for her Dublin university course with a few days to go, a property viewing with a line down the road and so on. Housing minister interviewed, admitted it was at crisis point. Lots about pause in construction during Covid; no mention of immigration in the whole report. Make of that what you will.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    carnforth said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    They do have the right to residence under the CTA. Did you mean the right to a passport? I remember one Tory lord claiming that, I think.

    The CTA does not say anything about residence: it - like Schengen - is merely a mutual agreement not to enforce border controls.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782

    Eabhal said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    Increase immigrants too rapidly and Scotland itself would find rapidly rising house prices because of excess demand
    I live in Edinburgh, you don't need to explain this stuff to me.
    You’re a stats guy, how much inward immigration to Edinburgh is from England?
    Can I get back to you on Monday?

    I think the NRS 2020-based principal projection has roughly a 3rd of future net migration coming in from RUK Scotland-wide (from memory, treat with caution).

    I'll check the actual historical stats later. I'd guess places like the Borders, Highlands, Moray have much higher RUK migration than Edinburgh, proportionately.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting article in the Times about Truss' family background. Her father is apparently 'so horrified by his daughter’s politics — “I think he’s extremely saddened about it and sometimes furious” — that he can barely bring himself to speak about it. Colleagues at Leeds University are said to have been sent an email by the university warning them not to speak publicly about his daughter.'
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/liz-truss-profile-parents-family-school-kcxznq2wb

    No one has told him yet then that his daughter is a deep sleeper Liberal agent?
    If Jeremy Corbyn himself were my brother, and became prime minister, I would be immensly proud despite our opposite politics. What is it with these people?
  • stodge said:

    stodge said:

    In Sweden, the latest Novus poll is very good for the centre-right bloc showing them on 51.8% with the centre-left on 47.4% which would mean a decisive victory and presumably a Sweden Democrat-led Government as they would be the largest of the four parties in the centre-right bloc.

    Not a cat in hell's chance.

    Jimmie Åkesson will never be prime minister.

    Not unless and until he wins a parliamentary majority outright. Which is never going to happen.
    So what happens IF the centre-right bloc gets most votes and the Sweden Democrats get most seats within that bloc? It's going to be hard to keep the Sweden Democrats out of the Government unless the Moderates and the Liberals jump ship and line up with the Social Democrats.

    As you have said, Kristersson seems to have fallen into the same trap with the Sweden Democrats as Casado in Spain did with VOX.
    The key misunderstanding here is understandable, because reports consistently refer to a “centre-right bloc”. There is no such thing.

    The only actual bloc is between the Moderates and the Christian Democrats, ie the remnants of Reinfeldt’s old 4-party “Alliance” (which still survives in many local council coalitions). They have said that they will form a 2-party (or maybe 3-party with Liberals) government, with C&S from the Sweden Democrats (and presumably the Liberals, if they refuse to serve in government). But what they will definitely *not* do is the opposite: ie. provide C&S to an SD government. Some “bloc”: it is one-way traffic.

    Jimmie Åkesson and Magdalena Andersson have played an absolute blinder. Ulf Kristersson is a Grade A plonker. His entire strategy was based on the Moderates being larger than SD. That now looks unlikely.

  • ping said:

    @DuncanWeldon

    British politics & economic policy is remarkably straightforward right now: Either the government will pay this bill or it won’t. https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1565786764140322818/photo/1

    As Duncan (who is brilliant) well knows, that is not the only question.

    Other questions include,

    - How big will Liz’s tax cuts be and to what extent will they be focused on the least well off who are the sharpest end of energy prices?

    - How much will the BoE need to hike rates to compensate for inflationary macro policy?

    - To what extent will government spending enable more rapid transition to solar, wind etc to avoid these circumstances happening in the future?
    A Labour-aligned economist from the IPPR thinks that her plans are not crazy and interest rates won't have to rise as much as predicted.

    https://twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1565338925056417792
    "Tory MMT."

    Yep.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    There was a report on the news on TV this evening - a girl who couldn’t find a houseshare for her Dublin university course with a few days to go, a property viewing with a line down the road and so on. Housing minister interviewed, admitted it was at crisis point. Lots about pause in construction during Covid; no mention of immigration in the whole report. Make of that what you will.
    Well: I can't speak to Ireland, but it is certainly true that lots of places saw property construction screech to a halt during Covid. And because of the leads- and lags- this is resulting in terrible shortages about 18 months later.

    Los Angeles County restricted building work for almost a year until mid-2021, which was (of course) utter insanity, and which now means it is essentially impossible to get anything done at a reasonable rate, because everyone is trying to get stuff done all at once. I really wouldn't like to be trying to buy an apartment here now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    edited September 2022
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another issue is that Ireland has practically zero experience of non-white, non-Christian immigration - unlike the UK which has known it for 70 years, at least

    In that, Eire is more like Denmark or Sweden. And it might have the same political impact as in Denmark or Sweden
    Apart from Ireland is about the only western European nation that does not have a hard right, populist and nationalist right party of any significance. France has RN, Spain has Vox, Germany has the AfD, Italy has Brothers of Italy and Lega Nord, Sweden has the Swedish Democrats, Austria has the Freedom Party, the Netherlands has PVV, even we recently had UKIP and still have RefUK.

    However Ireland just has the socially liberal but economically left Irish nationalist SF, the centre right liberal FG and the centrist Christian Democratic FF and Labour, Greens and some Independents
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,883
    Cyclefree said:

    I have worked professionally with David Pannick and Peters & Peters. I was also at Slaughter and May for seven and a half years.

    The Pannick advice is not his best work. The characterisation of what the Committee is doing in the opinion, is, how can I put this, not accurate. When I went back and checked with the actual documents, I thought to myself .... hmmm ....

    Put it this way, if this had been written by my team, I'd have asked them to go back and rewrite various sections in order to be scrupulously accurate. You undermine a case by overstating or inaccurately stating the factual basis for your legal analysis. The section on anonymous witnesses (whistleblowers) is particularly poor and disingenuous.

    The most charitable explanation is that they have put together the best case they can to reach the conclusion the client would like to hear.

    I would very much like to see the instructions given to Peters & Peters and by them to Counsel.

    Also how this was authorised within government, by whom and on what basis.

    This is why we all secretly have a crush on you even though none of us will end up with you like Leon will. Brains, gardening, anger, not sure about the beauty but I am getting Helen Mirren vibes. Keep up the good fight that nobody who matters in gov listens to!

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,547
    edited September 2022

    ping said:

    @DuncanWeldon

    British politics & economic policy is remarkably straightforward right now: Either the government will pay this bill or it won’t. https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1565786764140322818/photo/1

    As Duncan (who is brilliant) well knows, that is not the only question.

    Other questions include,

    - How big will Liz’s tax cuts be and to what extent will they be focused on the least well off who are the sharpest end of energy prices?

    - How much will the BoE need to hike rates to compensate for inflationary macro policy?

    - To what extent will government spending enable more rapid transition to solar, wind etc to avoid these circumstances happening in the future?
    A Labour-aligned economist from the IPPR thinks that her plans are not crazy and interest rates won't have to rise as much as predicted.

    https://twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1565338925056417792
    I think you are mangling his points, somewhat.

    James Meadway’s main argument in that thread is that government debt doesn’t matter, especially if you are promising deregulatory (ie right wing) reforms because the market is more tolerant of those.

    And if - if - it delivers a boost to growth, it’s also a potential electoral strategy.

    As for interest rates, it was Patrick Minford that was suggesting 7%.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782
    stodge said:

    Just to help out on the Irish Net Migration figures.

    Running a query on the website to which @Leon linked.

    46,300 of the 61,100 came from countries other than the EU, UK, Canada, Australia and the US.

    There's no breakdown of that by country (23 countries apparently).

    Net migration from the core EU was 3,300 and just under 7,000 from the post-2004 accession countries.

    Wow. Frustrating you can't see where they are coming from!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460
    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    They do have the right to residence under the CTA. Did you mean the right to a passport? I remember one Tory lord claiming that, I think.

    The CTA does not say anything about residence: it - like Schengen - is merely a mutual agreement not to enforce border controls.
    From gov.uk:

    “UK nationals do not need a visa or residency permit to live, work or study in Ireland. Within the Common Travel Area (CTA), British and Irish citizens can live and work freely in each other’s countries and travel freely between them. Both the UK and Irish governments are committed to protecting the CTA.”

    Seems like “CTA” is common shorthand for the whole set of rights?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491

    Hold on, we’ve been assured ad nauseum by the Brexit herd on here that Brexit had nothing to do with immigration.

    It wasn't to do with immigration for everyone, or solely about immigration. So it is fair to mock anyone whose simplistic take on Brexit is that that is all it was about. But it'd be dumb to pretend it had nothing to do with it for plenty of people.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    There was a report on the news on TV this evening - a girl who couldn’t find a houseshare for her Dublin university course with a few days to go, a property viewing with a line down the road and so on. Housing minister interviewed, admitted it was at crisis point. Lots about pause in construction during Covid; no mention of immigration in the whole report. Make of that what you will.
    Yes, it's the same unwillingness to address the issue that we see here

    Check the Sligo beheading/castration story. How come this wasn't much bigger news?

    Because the Irish media went very gently on the story. It is impossible to find reference to the beheadings/castrations in the Irish Times, for example. Just "serious injuries"

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,779
    carnforth said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    They do have the right to residence under the CTA. Did you mean the right to a passport? I remember one Tory lord claiming that, I think.

    Yes! Passport, indeed. That's the event I recall.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another country “sneaks” ahead of the UK’s standard of living. It’s becoming a thing. NZ is not far behind, nor is Estonia.
    Keep your eye on Poland: those guys are going to be stinking rich before most of us are 6 feet under.

    Ruthless, hard-working, innovative, canny, self-confident.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    edited September 2022
    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another country “sneaks” ahead of the UK’s standard of living. It’s becoming a thing. NZ is not far behind, nor is Estonia.
    Keep your eye on Poland: those guys are going to be stinking rich before most of us are 6 feet under.

    Ruthless, hard-working, innovative, canny, self-confident.
    Also strongly Roman Catholic and socially conservative still
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another issue is that Ireland has practically zero experience of non-white, non-Christian immigration - unlike the UK which has known it for 70 years, at least

    In that, Eire is more like Denmark or Sweden. And it might have the same political impact as in Denmark or Sweden
    Apart from Ireland is about the only western European nation that does not have a hard right, populist and nationalist right party of any significance. France has RN, Spain has Vox, Germany has the AfD, Italy has Brothers of Italy and Lega Nord, Sweden has the Swedish Democrats, Austria has the Freedom Party, the Netherlands has PVV, even we recently had UKIP and still have RefUK.

    However Ireland just has the socially liberal but economically left Irish nationalist SF, the centre right liberal FG and the centrist Christian Democratic FF and Labour, Greens and some Independents
    Here’s a recent map:


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491
    edited September 2022

    stodge said:

    stodge said:

    In Sweden, the latest Novus poll is very good for the centre-right bloc showing them on 51.8% with the centre-left on 47.4% which would mean a decisive victory and presumably a Sweden Democrat-led Government as they would be the largest of the four parties in the centre-right bloc.

    Not a cat in hell's chance.

    Jimmie Åkesson will never be prime minister.

    Not unless and until he wins a parliamentary majority outright. Which is never going to happen.
    So what happens IF the centre-right bloc gets most votes and the Sweden Democrats get most seats within that bloc? It's going to be hard to keep the Sweden Democrats out of the Government unless the Moderates and the Liberals jump ship and line up with the Social Democrats.

    As you have said, Kristersson seems to have fallen into the same trap with the Sweden Democrats as Casado in Spain did with VOX.
    The key misunderstanding here is understandable, because reports consistently refer to a “centre-right bloc”. There is no such thing.

    The only actual bloc is between the Moderates and the Christian Democrats, ie the remnants of Reinfeldt’s old 4-party “Alliance” (which still survives in many local council coalitions). They have said that they will form a 2-party (or maybe 3-party with Liberals) government, with C&S from the Sweden Democrats (and presumably the Liberals, if they refuse to serve in government). But what they will definitely *not* do is the opposite: ie. provide C&S to an SD government. Some “bloc”: it is one-way traffic.

    Jimmie Åkesson and Magdalena Andersson have played an absolute blinder. Ulf Kristersson is a Grade A plonker. His entire strategy was based on the Moderates being larger than SD. That now looks unlikely.

    I suppose a lot of people think of a bloc as a purely informal thing, or the grouping by others of the array of left or right parties? Whereas in plenty of places a bloc might be actually listed on the ballot together, or have made formal pronouncements about how they will work together in some form, excluding others who might be on the spectrum near to them.
  • HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another country “sneaks” ahead of the UK’s standard of living. It’s becoming a thing. NZ is not far behind, nor is Estonia.
    Keep your eye on Poland: those guys are going to be stinking rich before most of us are 6 feet under.

    Ruthless, hard-working, innovative, canny, self-confident.
    Also strongly Roman Catholic and socially conservative still
    Are you going to convert?
  • ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another issue is that Ireland has practically zero experience of non-white, non-Christian immigration - unlike the UK which has known it for 70 years, at least

    In that, Eire is more like Denmark or Sweden. And it might have the same political impact as in Denmark or Sweden
    Apart from Ireland is about the only western European nation that does not have a hard right, populist and nationalist right party of any significance. France has RN, Spain has Vox, Germany has the AfD, Italy has Brothers of Italy and Lega Nord, Sweden has the Swedish Democrats, Austria has the Freedom Party, the Netherlands has PVV, even we recently had UKIP and still have RefUK.

    However Ireland just has the socially liberal but economically left Irish nationalist SF, the centre right liberal FG and the centrist Christian Democratic FF and Labour, Greens and some Independents
    Here’s a recent map:


    And in Italy and Sweden's elections this month no government is likely to be able to be formed without Nationalist support
  • HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another issue is that Ireland has practically zero experience of non-white, non-Christian immigration - unlike the UK which has known it for 70 years, at least

    In that, Eire is more like Denmark or Sweden. And it might have the same political impact as in Denmark or Sweden
    Apart from Ireland is about the only western European nation that does not have a hard right, populist and nationalist right party of any significance. France has RN, Spain has Vox, Germany has the AfD, Italy has Brothers of Italy and Lega Nord, Sweden has the Swedish Democrats, Austria has the Freedom Party, the Netherlands has PVV, even we recently had UKIP and still have RefUK.

    However Ireland just has the socially liberal but economically left Irish nationalist SF, the centre right liberal FG and the centrist Christian Democratic FF and Labour, Greens and some Independents
    Aontu are anti-abortion.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,484

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    IrelanAlso:d speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another country “sneaks” ahead of the UK’s standard of living. It’s becoming a thing. NZ is not far behind, nor is Estonia.
    Keep your eye on Poland: those guys are going to be stinking rich before most of us are 6 feet under.

    Ruthless, hard-working, innovative, canny, self-confident.
    Also: probably dead from Russian radiation
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,955
    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    They do have the right to residence under the CTA. Did you mean the right to a passport? I remember one Tory lord claiming that, I think.

    The CTA does not say anything about residence: it - like Schengen - is merely a mutual agreement not to enforce border controls.
    From gov.uk:

    “UK nationals do not need a visa or residency permit to live, work or study in Ireland. Within the Common Travel Area (CTA), British and Irish citizens can live and work freely in each other’s countries and travel freely between them. Both the UK and Irish governments are committed to protecting the CTA.”

    Seems like “CTA” is common shorthand for the whole set of rights?
    So... the rights of Irish citizens in the UK are not defined by the Common Travel Area treaties, but by the Ireland Act 1949, which defines Irish citizens as non-alien: i.e. that they have (pretty much) all the rights of British citizens in the UK.

  • carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another issue is that Ireland has practically zero experience of non-white, non-Christian immigration - unlike the UK which has known it for 70 years, at least

    In that, Eire is more like Denmark or Sweden. And it might have the same political impact as in Denmark or Sweden
    Apart from Ireland is about the only western European nation that does not have a hard right, populist and nationalist right party of any significance. France has RN, Spain has Vox, Germany has the AfD, Italy has Brothers of Italy and Lega Nord, Sweden has the Swedish Democrats, Austria has the Freedom Party, the Netherlands has PVV, even we recently had UKIP and still have RefUK.

    However Ireland just has the socially liberal but economically left Irish nationalist SF, the centre right liberal FG and the centrist Christian Democratic FF and Labour, Greens and some Independents
    Here’s a recent map:


    That’s nothing.
    The Tories got 44% at the last election, and Trump got 47%.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782
    ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Tory core vote, should sharpen some minds.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Let's all pretend to give a fuck about them.
  • ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Is it possible to burn their bodies for fuel?
    One of Truss’s bright young things is probably preparing a paper on it.
  • carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another issue is that Ireland has practically zero experience of non-white, non-Christian immigration - unlike the UK which has known it for 70 years, at least

    In that, Eire is more like Denmark or Sweden. And it might have the same political impact as in Denmark or Sweden
    Apart from Ireland is about the only western European nation that does not have a hard right, populist and nationalist right party of any significance. France has RN, Spain has Vox, Germany has the AfD, Italy has Brothers of Italy and Lega Nord, Sweden has the Swedish Democrats, Austria has the Freedom Party, the Netherlands has PVV, even we recently had UKIP and still have RefUK.

    However Ireland just has the socially liberal but economically left Irish nationalist SF, the centre right liberal FG and the centrist Christian Democratic FF and Labour, Greens and some Independents
    Here’s a recent map:


    Only Hungary lists two parties, but please note that there is actually a party even further to the right of the Sweden Democrats. Called Alternative for Sweden, they comprise people kicked out of SD for various misdemeanours. They garner about 1%, far below the 4% threshold. So far.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147
    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Let's all pretend to give a fuck about them.
    They are the Tory core vote
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    Chris said:

    FPT

    Have to be honest, I'm not as enraged by the Pannick advice (and the cost to the taxpayer therein) as I am by the Winsor report on the Cressida Dick ousting.

    That report is utter bollocks and the author and the Home Secretary seem oblivious to the fact it was the same ruse that one Boris Johnson used to oust Ian Blair.

    Anyone who has dealt with Tom Winsor professionally may allow themselves a sly chuckle at his conclusion that Dick was intimidated by Khan and that there was undue pressure.
    She is a frail flower, though. And one can hardly expect the Metropolitan Police Commissioner to be a strong enough character to stand up for herself.
    It’s about principal. It’s one thing binning ministers and prime ministers. But if they can bin a member of the permanent official apparatus, a member of the Senior Management Team, just for grotesque incompetence….

    Who knows where that could end? The entire DfE?

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782

    ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Is it possible to burn their bodies for fuel?
    One of Truss’s bright young things is probably preparing a paper on it.
    Biomass only 7% of energy production at the moment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another issue is that Ireland has practically zero experience of non-white, non-Christian immigration - unlike the UK which has known it for 70 years, at least

    In that, Eire is more like Denmark or Sweden. And it might have the same political impact as in Denmark or Sweden
    Apart from Ireland is about the only western European nation that does not have a hard right, populist and nationalist right party of any significance. France has RN, Spain has Vox, Germany has the AfD, Italy has Brothers of Italy and Lega Nord, Sweden has the Swedish Democrats, Austria has the Freedom Party, the Netherlands has PVV, even we recently had UKIP and still have RefUK.

    However Ireland just has the socially liberal but economically left Irish nationalist SF, the centre right liberal FG and the centrist Christian Democratic FF and Labour, Greens and some Independents
    Here’s a recent map:


    That’s nothing.
    The Tories got 44% at the last election, and Trump got 47%.
    Le Pen got 41% in May, Meloni is likely to be elected the new Italian PM
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,460
    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    Brexiters having second thoughts. Remember those Tory MPs who were assuming they'd have right of residence.
    They do have the right to residence under the CTA. Did you mean the right to a passport? I remember one Tory lord claiming that, I think.

    The CTA does not say anything about residence: it - like Schengen - is merely a mutual agreement not to enforce border controls.
    From gov.uk:

    “UK nationals do not need a visa or residency permit to live, work or study in Ireland. Within the Common Travel Area (CTA), British and Irish citizens can live and work freely in each other’s countries and travel freely between them. Both the UK and Irish governments are committed to protecting the CTA.”

    Seems like “CTA” is common shorthand for the whole set of rights?
    So... the rights of Irish citizens in the UK are not defined by the Common Travel Area treaties, but by the Ireland Act 1949, which defines Irish citizens as non-alien: i.e. that they have (pretty much) all the rights of British citizens in the UK.

    Are we talking at cross purposes? The original “they’d” above refered to a right to residence for English in RoI post-brexit not the other way around. No, this isn’t the CTA. My point is just that my wrong usage appears to be common on gov.uk too…
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,491
    edited September 2022

    ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Is it possible to burn their bodies for fuel?
    One of Truss’s bright young things is probably preparing a paper on it.
    I'm sure somehow a tax cut for businesses will solve it. Remarkably, universally effective, policy.

    But you don't burn for heat, you crawl inside - has no one seen The Empire Strikes Back?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,147

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    EPG said:

    Leon said:

    I just did a deep dive on a subject I've never explored


    Immigration INTO Ireland. I was unaware that it has exploded in recent years. For the last recorded year, net migration into Ireland was 64,000

    The equivalent number, in Britain, would be 820,000 - heading towards a million people in a year, and more than twice the peak migration we have ever experienced. Extraordinary

    Irexit on the way? Probably not, but I suggest there is big trouble ahead for Ireland if this continues

    I imagine the invasion of Ukraine had something to do with that ...
    It's not just Ukraine, it's from all over. Partly - as said below - because the Irish economy is doing well (and good for them), and partly because of the open border with Ulster/UK (the irony!) and partly because of FoM with Europe

    Ireland speaks English. It has many of the attractions of the UK. The influx is so big and fast it brings infrastructure problems, and housing is calamitously expensive
    The housing situation is a disaster. The Irish President made a very spicy speech on this subject.

    The GDP growth is fake, measurement issues with all the mega-corporations based in Dublin. Probably still a good thing though for the Irish.

    The Ireland argument is a very strong one for Yes2, imo. Two options - increase fertility or get immigrants in. Option 1 is tricky, so go for indy.
    I think it's more accurate to say that GDP growth is exaggerated: lots of Irish GDP (such as manufacturing of pharmaceuticals or microprocessors) never gets near the Irish people.

    With that said, median post tax income in Ireland has now snuck ahead of the UK.

    I certainly believe that Ireland has a bit of a problem: it's small, but it's become the centre for a lot of economic activity, and that means a lot of stresses will show quite quickly.

    The problem is that Ireland has prosperity because it was the low-tax, relatively low-regulation, English speaking part of the EU. If you take the EU part away, then it's just a smaller England with a much smaller labour pool to draw from.
    Another issue is that Ireland has practically zero experience of non-white, non-Christian immigration - unlike the UK which has known it for 70 years, at least

    In that, Eire is more like Denmark or Sweden. And it might have the same political impact as in Denmark or Sweden
    Apart from Ireland is about the only western European nation that does not have a hard right, populist and nationalist right party of any significance. France has RN, Spain has Vox, Germany has the AfD, Italy has Brothers of Italy and Lega Nord, Sweden has the Swedish Democrats, Austria has the Freedom Party, the Netherlands has PVV, even we recently had UKIP and still have RefUK.

    However Ireland just has the socially liberal but economically left Irish nationalist SF, the centre right liberal FG and the centrist Christian Democratic FF and Labour, Greens and some Independents
    Aontu are anti-abortion.
    Not anti immigration though
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,782

    Chris said:

    FPT

    Have to be honest, I'm not as enraged by the Pannick advice (and the cost to the taxpayer therein) as I am by the Winsor report on the Cressida Dick ousting.

    That report is utter bollocks and the author and the Home Secretary seem oblivious to the fact it was the same ruse that one Boris Johnson used to oust Ian Blair.

    Anyone who has dealt with Tom Winsor professionally may allow themselves a sly chuckle at his conclusion that Dick was intimidated by Khan and that there was undue pressure.
    She is a frail flower, though. And one can hardly expect the Metropolitan Police Commissioner to be a strong enough character to stand up for herself.
    It’s about principal. It’s one thing binning ministers and prime ministers. But if they can bin a member of the permanent official apparatus, a member of the Senior Management Team, just for grotesque incompetence….

    Who knows where that could end? The entire DfE?

    Principle*
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Let's all pretend to give a fuck about them.
    They are the Tory core vote
    :lol:
  • Eabhal said:

    ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Is it possible to burn their bodies for fuel?
    One of Truss’s bright young things is probably preparing a paper on it.
    Biomass only 7% of energy production at the moment.
    Mainly American biomass. More to burn on those fat feckers.
  • pingping Posts: 3,282
    edited September 2022
    Chilling thread on 4Chan/8Chan’s successor, “KiwiFarms” and their hounding of targets.

    https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1565797220531814406

    We’ve got to stop this shit. They’re clearly breaking all sorts of laws. We need to enforce them. It’s not beyond the wit of western security services to find these people and prosecute them for their crimes.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,822
    edited September 2022
    Sweet documentary on Simon & Garfunkel on BBC4 at the mo’ centering on Bridge Over Troubled Waters. Had no idea that they were perceived as dangerous commie radicals intent on the destruction of the USA back in the day merely because they were concerned about poverty, racism and structural disadvantage.

    Plus ça change.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    Eabhal said:

    Chris said:

    FPT

    Have to be honest, I'm not as enraged by the Pannick advice (and the cost to the taxpayer therein) as I am by the Winsor report on the Cressida Dick ousting.

    That report is utter bollocks and the author and the Home Secretary seem oblivious to the fact it was the same ruse that one Boris Johnson used to oust Ian Blair.

    Anyone who has dealt with Tom Winsor professionally may allow themselves a sly chuckle at his conclusion that Dick was intimidated by Khan and that there was undue pressure.
    She is a frail flower, though. And one can hardly expect the Metropolitan Police Commissioner to be a strong enough character to stand up for herself.
    It’s about principal. It’s one thing binning ministers and prime ministers. But if they can bin a member of the permanent official apparatus, a member of the Senior Management Team, just for grotesque incompetence….

    Who knows where that could end? The entire DfE?

    Principle*
    Bloody Autofuckup…

    It’s funny how we have returned, in a way to the old ways. A new Upper 10,000…

    I still remember the absolute shock on Sharron Shoesmith’s face when she realised that she *wasn’t* in the Magic Circle of those who can only fail upwards.
  • ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Is it possible to burn their bodies for fuel?
    One of Truss’s bright young things is probably preparing a paper on it.
    The irony of all this is it needs someone who has recent experience designing a massive furlough-like bail out scheme.

    The only person who has is about to get about 20% of the membership vote.

  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    Did someone sabotage the Portovaya compressor station on Nordstream 1? It's about 10km from the Finnish border.

    Meanwhile the US and Britain are still importing Russian uranium for their nuke stations, right? Or have they stopped and it hasn't been reported?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 1,055
    FPTL Gardenwalker - In Poul Anderson's "Maurai" stories, New Zealand is a super power: "The Maurai series is a series of short stories and a novel by Poul Anderson set in a resource depleted, post-apocalyptic earth several centuries in the future. The series is named after its most frequent protagonists, citizens of the Maurai Federation. The Maurai (originally descended from Māori peoples of N'Zealann and other Polynesians, but including a diverse array of ethnic and racial groups) dominate the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Fearful of the social and ecological implications of a return to large-scale industrial society, they use their considerable might and covert resources to prevent other nations from developing nuclear power.

    In Orion Shall Rise, the novel that culminated the series, Anderson allowed for the possibility that a more equitable distribution of power, and an advanced, space-faring civilization might evolve."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurai
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    rcs1000 said:

    Irish house prices (not inflation adjusted) are only just back to where they were in 2008:



    Look at that post-GFC collapse - from 165 to 72 in five years. That must have been horrendous for those who bought near the top.

    IIRC at the top of the housing boom, Ireland had given out planing permission etc such that, if all the projects had completed, there would have been considerably more bedrooms than the entire population.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,393
    "Having betrayed Britain, the Tories deserve a 1997-style wipeout
    On every major issue, the Conservatives have let down their own voters. A crushing defeat is the only way they will change
    Nigel Farage"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/having-betrayed-britain-tories-deserve-1997-style-wipeout/
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ping said:

    Chilling thread on 4Chan/8Chan’s successor, “KiwiFarms” and their hounding of targets.

    https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1565797220531814406

    We’ve got to stop this shit. They’re clearly breaking all sorts of laws. We need to enforce them. It’s not beyond the wit of western security services to find these people and prosecute them for their crimes.

    Huffle, puffle. You know the most basic rule of all, Don't be a c**t? A lot of kiwifarms targets are in breach of it. But anyway what has it got to do with PB?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 1,055
    During the French and Indian Wars, the thirteen colonies supplied tens of thousands of soldiers. (Of, granted, varying quality. But the best, for example Rogers' Rangers, were vey good.)

    "Provincial troops, as distinct from the militias, were raised by the thirteen colonial governments in response to annual quotas established by the British commanders-in-chief. These troops saw service in most campaigns and employment throughout North America during the Seven Years' War."
    source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonial_American_military_history#French_and_Indian_War:_1754–1763

  • ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Is it possible to burn their bodies for fuel?
    One of Truss’s bright young things is probably preparing a paper on it.
    The irony of all this is it needs someone who has recent experience designing a massive furlough-like bail out scheme.

    The only person who has is about to get about 20% of the membership vote.

    If only we had some kind of organisation standing behind the government that could act as a repository of institutional knowledge…

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    ping said:

    From yesterday;

    @skynewsthompson

    Sky News has been told that care homes are facing closure this winter with some being quoted between 200-400% more for their energy costs. We've spent today with @sheffcare who say they usually pay around £90,000 across their nine care homes, they've recently been quoted £1.16m

    https://news.sky.com/story/care-provider-sheffcare-says-11x-higher-energy-bills-may-force-homes-to-shut-down-12687228

    Elderly people being thrown out into the street?
    Is it possible to burn their bodies for fuel?
    One of Truss’s bright young things is probably preparing a paper on it.
    The irony of all this is it needs someone who has recent experience designing a massive furlough-like bail out scheme.

    The only person who has is about to get about 20% of the membership vote.

    Hope so, if he gets sub 30 I clean up.
This discussion has been closed.