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Johnson was right to announce his departure when he did – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gazprom has completely turned off Nord Stream 1 until September 3rd.

    Three days of ‘maintenance’. What chance it ends up being 300 days?
    Can Russia afford not to be selling gas?
    Obviously lack of cheap gas hits the German economy hard. But the German economy has many strings to its bow. The Russian economy doesn't have much more than selling oil and gas.
    Now my impression is that Russia thinks it can tough this out. "Decadent westerners will crack as soon as they cannot afford champagne while we Russians can endure any privations." By which what I think they actually mean is that unimportant, little Russians can endure any privations. But soon this will start to impact the decision making class in Moscow and St. P. Who may turn oit to be less forgiving of drops in living standards than the Kremlin assumes.
    I’ve been doing some thinking (yes, I know) on the Kremlinology of the Russian gas situation.

    They’ve done pretty well so far this year, selling lower volumes at higher prices, as well as expanding markets in Asia, so they may have a financial buffer for a few months. They are calculating that making a show to Europe in general, and Germany in particular, that they can cut off the gas at will, and that they will do it because it’s fun to watch Europe freeze, might affect European support for Ukraine.

    In Russia itself, the economy under sanctions is slowly eating itself from the inside out. The middle class of Moscow are definitely noticing the lack of imported luxury goods, and key manufacturing sectors (including O&G) are starting to squeeze from a lack of capital equipment and spare parts. There’s already a $300m Airbus A350, delivered in February this year, grounded and cannibalised for spares to keep the rest of the fleet running, and in the next few months more factories will be forced to close, as spare parts and supply of raw materials run out.

    Surprisingly, China doesn’t seem to be particularly interested in helping Russia with getting capital equipment in through the back door, which is very good news for the rest of us. It means the economic squeeze on Russia will continue. Putin thinks the West will blink first under pressure, and ease the sanctions this winter in return for more gas.

    I think, and hope, that Sholz gets talked out of it by the Eastern European countries, for whom this war is existential.
    I would have thought it's just as likely to see support for Ukraine increase on the grounds the sooner Russia is defeated and Putin toppled the better for energy security.
    I think that, outside of Germany, you’re right. I think that Putin underestimates the resolve of the rest of Europe, to put up with industial shutdowns and buying an extra jumper or two, as the price for putting the bear back in his cage.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    MISTY said:

    Looking at the markets, a big fat sterling crisis could add to the new PM's colossal in-tray.

    Isn't that just what happens when a government spends money it doesn't have?
    Are you referring to Rishi Sunak's GBP400bn covid borrowing?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 29,258
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🔹🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿: Two Tory leaders - Douglas Ross & Andrew RT Davies - call on new PM to give businesses a bailout on rising energy costs…

    Both speaking to @MattChorley on @TimesRadio… https://twitter.com/ProducerOllie/status/1564941388860604416/photo/1
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Thread.

    Could Keir Starmer be finding his voice in the current energy crisis? Could this be his 'David Cameron moment'?

    Quite possibly. Will explain. Quick thread:


    https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1564917302423965696?s=21&t=uP3P3Vu6f7NcHavLGFXbeA

    I just watched that clip, and that's the 'coolest' I've ever seen Starmer look. The dark jacket and shirt, no tie, suits him.

    Superficial, I know. But image counts, and Starmer isn't known for his 'coolness'. Worth continuing with, I reckon.
    Nooo, washed up crooner on cruise liner look.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,592
    edited August 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Just €41.6B in profit for Gazprom in the first half of the year then.

    Hit them with a Windfall Tax, Sir Keir !!!!!
  • eekeek Posts: 22,076
    Andy_JS said:

    It's a broad church at the Telegraph this morning. Two columns:

    Pearson: Boris can never be forgiven for sacrificing Britain to his net zero fantasy

    Warner: Blaming net zero for today’s energy crisis is culture war nonsense

    I don't see what the contradiction is. Net Zero is the problem in both cases.
    Why is net zero the problem, what could we have done differently beyond starting to build nuclear power stations back in 2010....
  • DynamoDynamo Posts: 651
    edited August 2022
    My riff on Mikhail Gorbachev...

    If anyone wants an example of the herd effect, look at how the idea that the "cold war" between the US and its satellites on one side and the USSR and its satellites on the other ended in 1989-91 with the fall of the Berlin wall and the introduction of multiparty democracy in east-central and eastern Europe.

    In the 1980s, absolutely nobody said the cold war was still going on. Students of international relations mostly said it had ended long before, in the 1960s. (That happened to be shortly after the Sino-Soviet split made its appearance on the stage.) A small minority said it had continued at a lower level until the early 1970s.

    Nowadays you get articles saying e.g. that the 1972 Fischer-Spassky chess match in Rejkjavik happened at the "height of the cold war". Anybody who said that at the time would have been widely viewed as a complete idiot.

    As for the Apollo-Soyuz linkup, today's attitude is mostly "duhhhhhh". Détente, wassat?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,265
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone going to the London hustings tonight?

    Is Liz Truss?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gazprom has completely turned off Nord Stream 1 until September 3rd.

    Three days of ‘maintenance’. What chance it ends up being 300 days?
    Can Russia afford not to be selling gas?
    Obviously lack of cheap gas hits the German economy hard. But the German economy has many strings to its bow. The Russian economy doesn't have much more than selling oil and gas.
    Now my impression is that Russia thinks it can tough this out. "Decadent westerners will crack as soon as they cannot afford champagne while we Russians can endure any privations." By which what I think they actually mean is that unimportant, little Russians can endure any privations. But soon this will start to impact the decision making class in Moscow and St. P. Who may turn oit to be less forgiving of drops in living standards than the Kremlin assumes.
    Do they sell gas to China
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    The DfIT report on inward investment - not the survey quoted upthread:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/department-for-international-trade-inward-investment-results-2021-to-2022/department-for-international-trade-inward-investment-results-2021-to-2022-html-version

    Given the disproportionate attraction of London, still a good performance by Scotland, (7.5% jobs, 5% projects) but not as stellar as the earlier survey suggested.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone going to the London hustings tonight?

    If so no spoilers please, I am getting the box set for Christmas. Can't wait to see how it all turns out, Ramsay Bolton in no 10?
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,592
    This Thread has regenerated.....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,749
    IshmaelZ said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Anyone going to the London hustings tonight?

    If so no spoilers please, I am getting the box set for Christmas. Can't wait to see how it all turns out, Ramsay Bolton in no 10?
    I never knew Liz Truss was called that!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,965
    Nigelb said:

    Trending on Twitter - #TrumpIsGoingToJail

    I am utterly amused that at the end of the day it’s the National Archives who may bring down the criminal Donald Trump

    The National Freaking Archive
    Librarians saving democracy

    https://twitter.com/KimerikalOne/status/1564844654335381504

    Shades of Capone and tax evasion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,859
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gazprom has completely turned off Nord Stream 1 until September 3rd.

    Three days of ‘maintenance’. What chance it ends up being 300 days?
    Can Russia afford not to be selling gas?
    Obviously lack of cheap gas hits the German economy hard. But the German economy has many strings to its bow. The Russian economy doesn't have much more than selling oil and gas.
    Now my impression is that Russia thinks it can tough this out. "Decadent westerners will crack as soon as they cannot afford champagne while we Russians can endure any privations." By which what I think they actually mean is that unimportant, little Russians can endure any privations. But soon this will start to impact the decision making class in Moscow and St. P. Who may turn oit to be less forgiving of drops in living standards than the Kremlin assumes.
    Do they sell gas to China
    Of course they do.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_of_Siberia 2.2 trillion cubic feet/year. Slightly bigger pipe than Nordstream 1.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    MISTY said:

    MISTY said:

    Looking at the markets, a big fat sterling crisis could add to the new PM's colossal in-tray.

    Isn't that just what happens when a government spends money it doesn't have?
    Are you referring to Rishi Sunak's GBP400bn covid borrowing?
    One would’ve thought that the market reaction to that is long in the past. Moves on sterling now are more likely to be in anticipation of Truss’s announced strategy to fund tax cuts through borrowing, no?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142
    ydoethur said:

    Dynamo said:

    My riff on Mikhail Gorbachev...

    If anyone wants an example of the herd effect, look at how the idea that the "cold war" between the US and its satellites on one side and the USSR and its satellites on the other ended in 1989-91 with the fall of the Berlin wall and the introduction of multiparty democracy in east-central and eastern Europe.

    In the 1980s, absolutely nobody said the cold war was still going on. Students of international relations mostly said it had ended long before, in the 1960s. A small minority said it had continued at a lower level until the early 1970s.

    Nowadays you get articles saying e.g. that the 1972 Fischer-Spassky chess match in Rejkjavik happened at the "height of the cold war". Anybody who said that at the time would have been widely viewed as a complete idiot.

    As for the Apollo-Soyuz linkup, today's attitude is mostly "duhhhhhh". Détente, wassat?

    Huh? The arms race sparked off by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and Reagan's accession to the Presidency was called 'The New Cold War' after the abandonment of detente.
    Yes, this is absolute 100% cast iron bollocks.
    I was around in the 80s and studied international relations at the end of the decade. Unequivocally, the early 80s were a peak of the cold war, behind only the late 40s and early 60s. Remember the USA boycotting the Moscow Olympics, and the USSR boycotting the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics. The threat of nuclear annihilation was high.
    And remember how before Gorbachev, citizens of Eastern Bloc countries could not leave the Eastern Bloc? And after Gorbachev, they could? That rather implies to me he changed things.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 8,142
    Andy_JS said:

    Cookie said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gazprom has completely turned off Nord Stream 1 until September 3rd.

    Three days of ‘maintenance’. What chance it ends up being 300 days?
    Can Russia afford not to be selling gas?
    Obviously lack of cheap gas hits the German economy hard. But the German economy has many strings to its bow. The Russian economy doesn't have much more than selling oil and gas.
    Now my impression is that Russia thinks it can tough this out. "Decadent westerners will crack as soon as they cannot afford champagne while we Russians can endure any privations." By which what I think they actually mean is that unimportant, little Russians can endure any privations. But soon this will start to impact the decision making class in Moscow and St. P. Who may turn oit to be less forgiving of drops in living standards than the Kremlin assumes.
    Do they sell gas to China
    They do, but not so much. Not least because most of the pipelines go to Europe.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    edited August 2022
    Leon said:

    I’d like to make a formal apology to myself, for wasting my own rapidly diminishing time

    I need to get off this site. Perhaps for good

    Anon

    What about a sweepstake as to what the regenerated name will be? We have had some Mercian references in the past so I am going for Leofric.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,965

    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Justice Department asserts in a filing that some of the documents seized from Mar-A-Lago were so sensitive and classified that in some instances the FBI agents and DOJ attorneys needed additional security clearances to review them.
    https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1564821787250249729

    If Trump is not jailed over this, then the US has definitely ceased to be a place where the rule of law applies to some people.
    And, yes, I know it already is, but this is way beyond anything already done.
    He ought to see jail, having broken countless laws with impunity for so long, but my sense is he won't. However I do think the prospect of him being President again is receding. I rate this a less than 10% chance now.
    You are kidding right? 10%?

    He'll be the nominee and he'll probably win.
    We will see but, no, not kidding. My view is that bar a prohibiting legal or medical event he will run, but the GOP will probably not pick him. And if they do - or he switches to independent - the country won't elect him. Put that together and although it's possible he regains the presidency it's imo a 10% chance at most.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 32,965
    Dynamo said:

    My riff on Mikhail Gorbachev...

    If anyone wants an example of the herd effect, look at how the idea that the "cold war" between the US and its satellites on one side and the USSR and its satellites on the other ended in 1989-91 with the fall of the Berlin wall and the introduction of multiparty democracy in east-central and eastern Europe.

    In the 1980s, absolutely nobody said the cold war was still going on. Students of international relations mostly said it had ended long before, in the 1960s. (That happened to be shortly after the Sino-Soviet split made its appearance on the stage.) A small minority said it had continued at a lower level until the early 1970s.

    Nowadays you get articles saying e.g. that the 1972 Fischer-Spassky chess match in Rejkjavik happened at the "height of the cold war". Anybody who said that at the time would have been widely viewed as a complete idiot.

    As for the Apollo-Soyuz linkup, today's attitude is mostly "duhhhhhh". Détente, wassat?

    1984 was the height of the cold war - as proved by Frankie Goes To Hollywood releasing Two Tribes in that year.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,478
    Nigelb said:

    148grss said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    The Justice Department asserts in a filing that some of the documents seized from Mar-A-Lago were so sensitive and classified that in some instances the FBI agents and DOJ attorneys needed additional security clearances to review them.
    https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1564821787250249729

    If Trump is not jailed over this, then the US has definitely ceased to be a place where the rule of law applies to some people.
    And, yes, I know it already is, but this is way beyond anything already done.
    Call me old fashioned but I consider encouraging a mob to hang your vice president so you can keep power slightly worse than stealing some secret documents.

    And zero chance he goes to jail, unless the prosecutors can somehow get rid of his right to jury trial.
    I think he'll be beaten by Biden in the general now. Previously I thought he'd win, but Biden has
    i. Filed
    ii. Is creeping back up in popularity as the USA's cost for the Ukraine war is extremely cheap compared to continental europe.
    iii. Probably now holds the senate.
    iv. Got his deal through.
    I think Biden's prospects are largely tied to Ukraine's. If Ukraine is victorious by 2024, then that's a great foreign policy success for Biden and he's a winner.

    If the Russo-Ukraine War is an expensive stalemate, then Afghanistan comes to define Biden's presidency, and he looks like Carter, an embarrassment.
    Everyone will have forgotten about Afghanistan by 2024, either way.
    Americans also very rarely vote for POTUS due to foreign policy.

    Current outlook is gas (petrol for us) prices have stabilised and even reduced, and the Dobbs decision has been more harm for GOP in electoral terms. Outlook for November is a GOP House and Dem Senate, which will mean no legislation is passed for 2 years. If the Dems hold the Senate and a right wing SCOTUS judge dies, say Alito or Thomas, that would likely be the most impactful thing Biden could do.

    I think there are still some big questions about whether Biden gets to 2024 - yes he has filed, but his age and its impact are not really liked by the voters, even within the Democratic party. There is no obvious replacement, Harris was a dud and has been a nobody as VP, Buttigieg is much more of a technocrat than Biden and would likely not want to be seen as his successor, and the likes of Warren and Bernie still have the age issue to contend with.

    I also think that Trump may decide to bow out of the GOP race instead of being humiliated by a loss, and try to play king maker instead. Not that he would definitely lose, but I think it is close enough and he is insecure enough not to risk it. I think De Santis will likely be the GOP nominee, and he is arguably worse than Trump in many ways - more openly anti vax, more rabidly anti LGBT+, and also isn't really tied to the GOP establishment, so would be another cult of personality. He is just as willing to gerrymander and call foul elections as Trump, he just does it more subtly and through legislation rather than Twitter. The main question is would De Santis run against Trump if Trump does run - current evidence suggests he would.
    All unknowables at this point (though I have the Dems as favourites, just, in 2024).

    And don't assume the conventional wisdom is definitely right. The odds on the Republicans taking the House have lengthened from 1.15 to around 1.4, for example.
    And I think Crist might just be in with a chance in Florida.

    I wouldn't be betting much on 2024 until the midterms are done.
    I tend to lean with whatever 538 say - they started off giving the Dems a chance in the house, but due to certain maps being struck down and others being upheld it's just a much more one sided jerrymander than originally thought. If the Dems do hold the House and expand in the Senate it would be wild - if they manage it they should give statehood to DC and PR asap, elsewise 2024 will be a shitshow.
  • eek said:

    Andy_JS said:

    It's a broad church at the Telegraph this morning. Two columns:

    Pearson: Boris can never be forgiven for sacrificing Britain to his net zero fantasy

    Warner: Blaming net zero for today’s energy crisis is culture war nonsense

    I don't see what the contradiction is. Net Zero is the problem in both cases.
    Why is net zero the problem, what could we have done differently beyond starting to build nuclear power stations back in 2010....
    We could have let the oil and gas companies carry on exploring and developing new fields rather than making it increasingly difficult for them to do so.

    It was a choice made by the Government and one that I am sure many agree with. But it was a choice with consequences and there is no doubt that part of the current crisis stems from those decisions.
  • Nigelb said:

    Trending on Twitter - #TrumpIsGoingToJail

    I am utterly amused that at the end of the day it’s the National Archives who may bring down the criminal Donald Trump

    The National Freaking Archive
    Librarians saving democracy

    https://twitter.com/KimerikalOne/status/1564844654335381504

    A bit like the IRS being the ones who got Capone.
This discussion has been closed.