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Why the Alternative Vote system is proving awesome once more – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,163
edited August 2022 in General
Why the Alternative Vote system is proving awesome once more – politicalbetting.com

America’s in a bad place and democracy is under attack from Trumpian forces in a way American democracy has seen since the concluding days of the presidency of James Buchanan. The relentless optimist in me sees some hope for America, as The Economist notes that America is using ranked choice voting in some states and election, ranked choice voting is what we call the alternative vote, The Economist observes

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Comments

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Looking forward to the audiovisuals on this thread.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Given the standard slowness of American counts AV wpuld add a whole new exciting level of dumb fuckery.

    Observe the New York mayor elections for how badly they can fuck it up.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.08 Liz Truss 93%
    13 Rishi Sunak 8%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.07 Liz Truss 93%
    13.5 Rishi Sunak 7%
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    It is raining in Fiesole
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Leon said:

    It is raining in Fiesole

    Is that good or bad?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    It is raining in Fiesole

    Never mind that, read this fpt

    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/20/ai-art-artificial-intelligence-midjourney-dall-e-replacing-artists

    The Atlantic and the Economist already using Dall E lookalike Midjourney to produce cover art

    Fun fact: Dall-E is a joke combination of Wall-E and Dali. Probably everyone realised this anyway.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Leon said:

    It is raining in Fiesole

    Probably not the best day to take the tuk-tuk taxi there then....
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    If a PBTory gets into such tergiversations about how FPTP is the only democratic way of voting that he flies up his own arse like the farfamed oozlum bird, what topological genus is he?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    So in a solidly Republican state the fact that AV means that the Democrats have a chance of winning is a good thing. Have I got that right?

    As Spock almost said, "It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Leon said:

    It is raining in Fiesole

    I went to THE most spectacular wedding there once. Groom was the son of a fabulously wealthy Swedish industrialist, the bride the daughter of a leading Communist trade union official. The pre-wedding meal the night before was one of the best feasts I've ever attended. The wedding was in a castle, lit by a thousand candles, with a gospel group flown in from London. (They had to be persuaded that it would not exactly be appropriate to sing "I still haven't found what I'm looking for"....

    "But it's the best thing we do!"
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    We need Labour with C&S from Lib Dems.

    PR is now essential to re-build our broken country
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    We need Labour with C&S from Lib Dems.

    PR is now essential to re-build our broken country

    Why not SNP? They've been consistently in support of voting reform.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Russia increases cruise missile carriers in Black Sea before Ukraine’s Independence Day.

    Ukraine's Operational Command "South" reported that Russia could be preparing to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities on Aug. 24, Independence Day in Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1561347970762784770?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    Pizza topping thread next?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    DavidL said:

    So in a solidly Republican state the fact that AV means that the Democrats have a chance of winning is a good thing. Have I got that right?

    As Spock almost said, "It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it."

    But if half the Republicans cannot stand the candidate for the party has put up, what are they supposed to do? Hold their noses and vote for the party? Or exercise the free choice of democratic citizens and vote for the candidate they think will do the best for their State?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carnyx said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    We need Labour with C&S from Lib Dems.

    PR is now essential to re-build our broken country

    Why not SNP? They've been consistently in support of voting reform.
    But the SNP price will be too high.
    Logic the wrong way round. It's crucial to get voting reform before the Tories take over again. Think about it.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Carnyx, 'take over'? You mean 'win an election', right?

    Gerrymandering the electoral system so that the political class determine the winner(s) after the vote is not a step forward. It would fragment the political system and make manifestos a list of optional extras to be jettisoned by parties once the voters have given them support (meaning the very reason for said support can be thrown away, with no way of the voter expressing dissatisfaction). And yes, this can sometimes happen now* but it's far rarer whereas under PR it would become par for the course.

    *see Labour's brilliant decision to renege on their manifesto pledge for a referendum.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,831
    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    So in a solidly Republican state the fact that AV means that the Democrats have a chance of winning is a good thing. Have I got that right?

    As Spock almost said, "It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it."

    But if half the Republicans cannot stand the candidate for the party has put up, what are they supposed to do? Hold their noses and vote for the party? Or exercise the free choice of democratic citizens and vote for the candidate they think will do the best for their State?
    This is a screw up by the Republican party which is still enduring a civil war that Trump has largely but not completely won but there is no doubt the majority of Alaskans want to be represented by the Republicans. The fact that a screw up results in a different result may well deserve the Republicans right but it is not an advert for an electoral system which is producing a perverse result.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited August 2022
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Carnyx, 'take over'? You mean 'win an election', right?

    Gerrymandering the electoral system so that the political class determine the winner(s) after the vote is not a step forward. It would fragment the political system and make manifestos a list of optional extras to be jettisoned by parties once the voters have given them support (meaning the very reason for said support can be thrown away, with no way of the voter expressing dissatisfaction). And yes, this can sometimes happen now* but it's far rarer whereas under PR it would become par for the course.

    *see Labour's brilliant decision to renege on their manifesto pledge for a referendum.

    Simply thinking about it from the point of view of Labour and LD.

    PS And good afternoon, too, belatedly!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. Carnyx, changing the electoral system with zero majority and with no referendum would not be setting a fantastic precedent.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,380
    Meanwhile, Leeds are stuffing Chelsea, with some help from one of the worst goalkeeping errors I've seen. Just need to hold out for 45 minutes.
    Happy times.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Hard to top this for trolling.
    https://twitter.com/buitengebieden/status/1561250252304388097
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    OTD 54 years ago the USSR led the Warsaw Pact invasion that crushed the #PragueSpring🇨🇿

    "I think for many centuries there has been this Russian problem, that Russia🇷🇺 doesn't know exactly where it begins and where it ends..."
    Václav Havel (23.8.2008)
    https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1561237771519463424
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Carnyx, changing the electoral system with zero majority and with no referendum would not be setting a fantastic precedent.

    But Labour and the LDs couldn't do it without a majority, and if it were in their manifesto ...

    (On the last, not convinced myself, but it's their problem.)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    DavidL said:

    OldKingCole said:

    DavidL said:

    So in a solidly Republican state the fact that AV means that the Democrats have a chance of winning is a good thing. Have I got that right?

    As Spock almost said, "It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it."

    But if half the Republicans cannot stand the candidate for the party has put up, what are they supposed to do? Hold their noses and vote for the party? Or exercise the free choice of democratic citizens and vote for the candidate they think will do the best for their State?
    This is a screw up by the Republican party which is still enduring a civil war that Trump has largely but not completely won but there is no doubt the majority of Alaskans want to be represented by the Republicans. The fact that a screw up results in a different result may well deserve the Republicans right but it is not an advert for an electoral system which is producing a perverse result.
    Though electing Palin is a different sort of peverse result. There is a problem if a party can put up any old nutter they like becuase the rosette-on-a-donkey vote is too strong.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Carnyx, changing the electoral system with zero majority and with no referendum would not be setting a fantastic precedent.

    True dat. And every referendum which will ever be held in this country will be vulnerable to smarmy Dave's contemptible Let's give the money to the NHS ploy. Best approach: replace HoL with a second chamber, elect to that by AV, see how that goes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    Pizza topping thread next?
    No, if it’s at the request of @ydoethur , it will possibly be about the next Swedish PM being the chair of IKEA.

    And how he will assemble his cabinet.
    Complete and utter meatballs.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    Pizza topping thread next?
    No, if it’s at the request of @ydoethur , it will possibly be about the next Swedish PM being the chair of IKEA.

    And how he will assemble his cabinet.
    And whether it will collapse three months later.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited August 2022
    Palin’s considered opinion of @TheScreamingEagles favoured system.

    … In a statement as polls were closing in Alaska Tuesday, Palin bashed ranked choice voting, saying, "Today is the first test case of the crazy, convoluted, undesirable ranked-choice voting system, and to everyone who's watching from Outside tonight, I say: Please, learn from Alaska's mistake. Voters are confused and angry, and feel disenfranchised by this cockamamie system that makes it impossible to trust that your vote will even be counted the way you intended…
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    geoffw said:

    Russia increases cruise missile carriers in Black Sea before Ukraine’s Independence Day.

    Ukraine's Operational Command "South" reported that Russia could be preparing to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities on Aug. 24, Independence Day in Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1561347970762784770?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Nice ships you got there.

    Shame if anything happened to them....

    Had an ex-special forces guy over for dinner last night. He's still very plugged in to what is happening.

    Told me there's a bunch of folk who used to have our three-letter military connections over in Crimea. Guys taking a sabbatical from now being plumbers, driver, etc etc. Making a bit of mischief to help the Ukrainians. You may have seen some of their handiwork.

    He reckons the most terrifying thing for most of them though is the prospect of having to take a medical to get there! Bit heavier than they once were....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    It's a gay day in Singapore then.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    IshmaelZ said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Carnyx, changing the electoral system with zero majority and with no referendum would not be setting a fantastic precedent.

    True dat. And every referendum which will ever be held in this country will be vulnerable to smarmy Dave's contemptible Let's give the money to the NHS ploy. Best approach: replace HoL with a second chamber, elect to that by AV, see how that goes.
    Putting it in a manifesto when you’re on course for a comfortable victory though - that’s probably the best bet. Combined with doing so in a moment where people are alive to the manifold downsides of FPTP. Trouble is there are few occasions when election victory is looking a cert.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    Pizza topping thread next?
    No, if it’s at the request of @ydoethur , it will possibly be about the next Swedish PM being the chair of IKEA.

    And how he will assemble his cabinet.
    ABBAout that.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    I may be one of a limited number rooting for ManU tomorrow.

    Just for the bantz of Forest being above both after three games.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Germany also said something similar this week.
    Would give Ukraine a lot more platforms* capable of outranging Russian artillery, and hitting deep behind the front line.

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1561215216733622272
    Politico: US planning to give Ukraine precision-guided Excalibur munitions.

    A source close to the deliberations of the latest military aid package shared with Politico that the M982 Excalibur rounds, travelling up to 70km, will be sent to Ukraine "at some point in the future."

    *
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M982_Excalibur
    Self-propelled guns compatible with the Excalibur projectile are the American M109A6 Paladin and M109A7, British AS-90, German PzH 2000, South African G6, and Swedish Archer. Towed guns compatible with the Excalibur projectile are the American M198 and M777 howitzers…
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    What's up with West Ham? Making the Foxes look good...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. Mark, for what it's worth, I backed Manchester United at 5 to win. Unlikely, but thought it worth a shot.

    Surprised by Liverpool's faltering start. Less surprised by Manchester United underperforming. Good odds for both their initial defeats.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Bizarre.

    James Melville
    @JamesMelville
    Kuwait has accumulated the biggest tyre dump in the world (50 million tyres on various sites). And this is what happens when it catches fire.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1561349571036454919
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Foxy said:

    What's up with West Ham? Making the Foxes look good...

    What odds could you have got on Leicester, West Ham and Man United being the bottom 3 after 3 games?
    Brighton are pretty good.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    TimS said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Carnyx, changing the electoral system with zero majority and with no referendum would not be setting a fantastic precedent.

    True dat. And every referendum which will ever be held in this country will be vulnerable to smarmy Dave's contemptible Let's give the money to the NHS ploy. Best approach: replace HoL with a second chamber, elect to that by AV, see how that goes.
    Putting it in a manifesto when you’re on course for a comfortable victory though - that’s probably the best bet. Combined with doing so in a moment where people are alive to the manifold downsides of FPTP. Trouble is there are few occasions when election victory is looking a cert.
    Though the fates may be on the side of electoral reform there. The addition of a big SNP bloc... blocking things makes the mindset different. In 2011, the Conservatives were already looking forward to a win on their own next time, which kept them wedded to FPTP. As long as the SNP are big in Scotland, it's not easy to get a similar win for Labour. So a two term coalition is a bit more plausible, and there's more of a chance of the political interest of government aligning with change.

    (I'm assuming that the Conservatives will decide to really please themselves after a defeat in 2024, and put up someone like Badenoch. That likely means they lose ("in your heart you know she's right, but in your guts you know she's nuts") but that's still not necessarily enough for Labour to win alone.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    rottenborough said:

    Bizarre.

    James Melville
    @JamesMelville
    Kuwait has accumulated the biggest tyre dump in the world (50 million tyres on various sites). And this is what happens when it catches fire.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1561349571036454919

    Be some real nasties contained in that smoke.

    "The fire releases a dark, thick smoke that contains cyanide, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and products of butadiene and styrene."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tire_fire
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    It has stopped raining in Fiesole. A reviving spritz is consumed, above the Etruscan Temple


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Stuartinromford said:

    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    Pizza topping thread next?
    No, if it’s at the request of @ydoethur , it will possibly be about the next Swedish PM being the chair of IKEA.

    And how he will assemble his cabinet.
    And whether it will collapse three months later.
    Caused by just one loose screw..... Politicians and their libidos, eh?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    Bizarre.

    James Melville
    @JamesMelville
    Kuwait has accumulated the biggest tyre dump in the world (50 million tyres on various sites). And this is what happens when it catches fire.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1561349571036454919

    Be some real nasties contained in that smoke.

    "The fire releases a dark, thick smoke that contains cyanide, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and products of butadiene and styrene."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tire_fire
    They are a bugger, you have to pay the tip to take them.

    also spookily susceptible to accidental combustion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    One to look at as at least a trading bet on the nomination:

    California voters want Biden to step aside — and see Newsom as a top contender to succeed him
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/19/california-voters-biden-newsom-00052914
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Leon said:

    It has stopped raining in Fiesole. A reviving spritz is consumed, above the Etruscan Temple


    Very lovely. I wandered round it very early morning and there were plenty of birds. Hoopoes amongst them as I recall.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Ponder that we are getting to the last chance for revelation announcement for La Truss prior to the election result. Although if the left wing red tops have it then maybe they are waiting until after the results.

    It was put to me.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    The Sun reports Boris might hand a peerage to Ben Houchen, Tory mayor for up north somewhere, so Liz Truss can make his lordship the new Minister for Levelling Up (sorry, Jacob). It also reports Houchen might turn it down as he wants to become an MP. So whether or not Mayor Ben is in the resignation honours list, you heard it here first!
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19569184/boris-johnson-red-wall-poster-boy-peerage/
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    MarqueeMark said:

    geoffw said:

    Russia increases cruise missile carriers in Black Sea before Ukraine’s Independence Day.

    Ukraine's Operational Command "South" reported that Russia could be preparing to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities on Aug. 24, Independence Day in Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1561347970762784770?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Nice ships you got there.

    Shame if anything happened to them....

    Had an ex-special forces guy over for dinner last night. He's still very plugged in to what is happening.

    Told me there's a bunch of folk who used to have our three-letter military connections over in Crimea. Guys taking a sabbatical from now being plumbers, driver, etc etc. Making a bit of mischief to help the Ukrainians. You may have seen some of their handiwork.

    He reckons the most terrifying thing for most of them though is the prospect of having to take a medical to get there! Bit heavier than they once were....
    It seems to me that going in to Crimea on a freelance basis would be a bit of a suicide mission; they can't ever be captured.

    A bit off topic, but this is a good report from Vice about Russian occupied Crimea from 2017.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzO7gIT5GYU&t=619s
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    darkage said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    geoffw said:

    Russia increases cruise missile carriers in Black Sea before Ukraine’s Independence Day.

    Ukraine's Operational Command "South" reported that Russia could be preparing to launch missiles at Ukrainian cities on Aug. 24, Independence Day in Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1561347970762784770?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

    Nice ships you got there.

    Shame if anything happened to them....

    Had an ex-special forces guy over for dinner last night. He's still very plugged in to what is happening.

    Told me there's a bunch of folk who used to have our three-letter military connections over in Crimea. Guys taking a sabbatical from now being plumbers, driver, etc etc. Making a bit of mischief to help the Ukrainians. You may have seen some of their handiwork.

    He reckons the most terrifying thing for most of them though is the prospect of having to take a medical to get there! Bit heavier than they once were....
    It seems to me that going in to Crimea on a freelance basis would be a bit of a suicide mission; they can't ever be captured.

    A bit off topic, but this is a good report from Vice about Russian occupied Crimea from 2017.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzO7gIT5GYU&t=619s
    They are under no illusions that getting taken alive is an option....
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Mark, for what it's worth, I backed Manchester United at 5 to win. Unlikely, but thought it worth a shot.

    Surprised by Liverpool's faltering start. Less surprised by Manchester United underperforming. Good odds for both their initial defeats.

    I backed them for top 4 straight after the Brentford debacle and at the very peak of "Manchester United Football Club" woeballing by the Sky pundits.

    I like this betting technique.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Sun reports Boris might hand a peerage to Ben Houchen, Tory mayor for up north somewhere, so Liz Truss can make his lordship the new Minister for Levelling Up (sorry, Jacob). It also reports Houchen might turn it down as he wants to become an MP. So whether or not Mayor Ben is in the resignation honours list, you heard it here first!
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19569184/boris-johnson-red-wall-poster-boy-peerage/

    Why would anyone want to be a minister stuck in the House of Lords when you can be master/ leader of your own Kingdom locally...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    Ponder that we are getting to the last chance for revelation announcement for La Truss prior to the election result. Although if the left wing red tops have it then maybe they are waiting until after the results.

    It was put to me.

    Bit late to swing results. Mind you sunak is so inept he may not realise that and may be saving something up.

    Quite a lot of sex and drugs and republicanism and charging for the NHS baked in with Liz, and you can get away with most things these days.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. kinabalu, I'd be surprised, although I have sod all knowledge of football so it could well happen :p

    My approach this season has been a very basic approach, just betting on win/loss/draw outcomes. Going reasonably well for the EPL, so-so for Serie A, La Liga, and Ligue 1, and comically terrible for the Bundesliga (not a single winning bet).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited August 2022
    eek said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Sun reports Boris might hand a peerage to Ben Houchen, Tory mayor for up north somewhere, so Liz Truss can make his lordship the new Minister for Levelling Up (sorry, Jacob). It also reports Houchen might turn it down as he wants to become an MP. So whether or not Mayor Ben is in the resignation honours list, you heard it here first!
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19569184/boris-johnson-red-wall-poster-boy-peerage/

    Why would anyone want to be a minister stuck in the House of Lords when you can be master/ leader of your own Kingdom locally...
    Also. He's 35. The House of Lords puts a ceiling on your ambitions.
    Surely he has plans to be in the Commons? As a potential leader in a decade or two?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    That was surprisingly impressive from Leeds! Chelsea weren’t in it. Didn’t see that coming at all.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Sun reports Boris might hand a peerage to Ben Houchen, Tory mayor for up north somewhere, so Liz Truss can make his lordship the new Minister for Levelling Up (sorry, Jacob). It also reports Houchen might turn it down as he wants to become an MP. So whether or not Mayor Ben is in the resignation honours list, you heard it here first!
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19569184/boris-johnson-red-wall-poster-boy-peerage/

    Why would anyone want to be a minister stuck in the House of Lords when you can be master/ leader of your own Kingdom locally...
    Also. He's 35. The House of Lords puts a ceiling on your ambitions.
    Surely he has plans to be in the Commons? As a potential leader in a decade or two?
    Why not a party leader in a couple of years? But think of the competition. One B. Johnson, for a start.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. Seal, surprised by the score line. Leeds were 6 to beat Chelsea. The odds on a 3-0 win must have been very tasty.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Sun reports Boris might hand a peerage to Ben Houchen, Tory mayor for up north somewhere, so Liz Truss can make his lordship the new Minister for Levelling Up (sorry, Jacob). It also reports Houchen might turn it down as he wants to become an MP. So whether or not Mayor Ben is in the resignation honours list, you heard it here first!
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19569184/boris-johnson-red-wall-poster-boy-peerage/

    Why would anyone want to be a minister stuck in the House of Lords when you can be master/ leader of your own Kingdom locally...
    Also. He's 35. The House of Lords puts a ceiling on your ambitions.
    Surely he has plans to be in the Commons? As a potential leader in a decade or two?
    Why not a party leader in a couple of years? But think of the competition. One B. Johnson, for a start.
    Why do you think Johnson wants to put him in the Lords?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited August 2022
    rottenborough said:

    Bizarre.

    James Melville
    @JamesMelville
    Kuwait has accumulated the biggest tyre dump in the world (50 million tyres on various sites). And this is what happens when it catches fire.

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1561349571036454919

    A couple of clowns shredded ( full sized) car and truck tyres to a flock and stored them in the old Corgi Toys factory in Swansea. When it inevitably went up in flames the Fforestfach area of the city was closed for several days, residents told not to open their windows for weeks.

    As someone involved in the waste industry it is remarkable how often, difficult to combust (without an accelerant) waste streams, spontaneously combust.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ponder that we are getting to the last chance for revelation announcement for La Truss prior to the election result. Although if the left wing red tops have it then maybe they are waiting until after the results.

    It was put to me.

    Bit late to swing results. Mind you sunak is so inept he may not realise that and may be saving something up.

    Quite a lot of sex and drugs and republicanism and charging for the NHS baked in with Liz, and you can get away with most things these days.
    Foresees an earlier GE than 2024 with you know how ready to ride to the rescue.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Leeds and Brighton in the top four... well, until Manchester City play tomorrow.

    Unless Newcastle spring a surprise. Draw isn't impossible. But unlikely.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Seal, surprised by the score line. Leeds were 6 to beat Chelsea. The odds on a 3-0 win must have been very tasty.

    Indeed. Don’t think anyone saw that on the horizon.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    rottenborough said:

    Carnyx said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Sun reports Boris might hand a peerage to Ben Houchen, Tory mayor for up north somewhere, so Liz Truss can make his lordship the new Minister for Levelling Up (sorry, Jacob). It also reports Houchen might turn it down as he wants to become an MP. So whether or not Mayor Ben is in the resignation honours list, you heard it here first!
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/19569184/boris-johnson-red-wall-poster-boy-peerage/

    Why would anyone want to be a minister stuck in the House of Lords when you can be master/ leader of your own Kingdom locally...
    Also. He's 35. The House of Lords puts a ceiling on your ambitions.
    Surely he has plans to be in the Commons? As a potential leader in a decade or two?
    Why not a party leader in a couple of years? But think of the competition. One B. Johnson, for a start.
    Why do you think Johnson wants to put him in the Lords?
    Quite.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. Carnyx, 'take over'? You mean 'win an election', right?

    Gerrymandering the electoral system so that the political class determine the winner(s) after the vote is not a step forward. It would fragment the political system and make manifestos a list of optional extras to be jettisoned by parties once the voters have given them support (meaning the very reason for said support can be thrown away, with no way of the voter expressing dissatisfaction). And yes, this can sometimes happen now* but it's far rarer whereas under PR it would become par for the course.

    *see Labour's brilliant decision to renege on their manifesto pledge for a referendum.

    If you want to avoid coalitions, the way to do that is not FPTP (which doesn’t do a very good job of doing that: see 2010, 2017 and numerous local council elections), but to have a directly-elected executive. AV is clearly the best system for a directly-elected executive, which is why the Conservative party uses something quite AV-like to select its leader and the House of Lords uses AV for by-elections.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Leeds and Brighton in the top four... well, until Manchester City play tomorrow.

    Unless Newcastle spring a surprise. Draw isn't impossible. But unlikely.

    They’re playing now actually…and will probably nudge Brighton out as you say. I think Liverpool would have to win by 4 or 5 clear goals tomorrow to get into the top 4.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    On Topic - last week yours truly was told by a reputable, informed source that consultants for both Mary Stattler Peltola AND Nick Begich were saying that, based on their own separate campaign polling, that IF Begich ended up coming in third in special election first preferences - as is indeed the case - then Peltola would end up defeating Sarah Palin when second preference votes were tabulated and added to the count (scheduled for Aug 31 as per Alaska Division of Elections).

    Note that ADE is reporting (as of Aug 17) with 395 of 402 precinct counted, the following first preference totals:

    Begich, Nick REP 44,065 28.56%
    Palin, Sarah REP 49,262 31.93%
    Peltola, Mary S. DEM 58,689 38.03%
    Write-in 2,288 1.48%
    Total Votes 154,304

    Thus Peltola has a lead of just over +6 percentage points over Palin with almost all first prefs tabulated, and that Begich is clearly eliminated.

    SO now two questions:

    Q1. what % of Begich voters also voted for 2nd preference; the remaining ballots being non-transferable and thus out of the final count; AND

    Q2. on Begich ballots with 2nd preferences, what is the split between fellow Republican Palin AND Democrat Peltola?

    My own guess, is that 1) high percentage of Begich votes are indeed transferable; and that 2) most Begich voters with 2nd preference gave it to Palin HOWEVER high enough share instead voted 2nd pref for Peltola to elect her to Congress to fill remainder of term of late Don Young, which ends Jan 2023.

    FURTHER note, that outcome of special US House election MAY presage outcome in the REGULAR election this Fall for the full congressional term, featuring the same three plus one other (unless the other drops out, as happened in the special which is why only three candidates for that race).
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    DougSeal said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Leeds and Brighton in the top four... well, until Manchester City play tomorrow.

    Unless Newcastle spring a surprise. Draw isn't impossible. But unlikely.

    They’re playing now actually…and will probably nudge Brighton out as you say. I think Liverpool would have to win by 4 or 5 clear goals tomorrow to get into the top 4.
    Eh? It's mathematically impossible for Liverpool to get in the top 4 this weekend, they're only on 2 points, 4th is already on 7 points.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,790
    Mr. Seal, ah, sorry, was thinking of Manchester United and Liverpool.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    MaxPB said:

    DougSeal said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Leeds and Brighton in the top four... well, until Manchester City play tomorrow.

    Unless Newcastle spring a surprise. Draw isn't impossible. But unlikely.

    They’re playing now actually…and will probably nudge Brighton out as you say. I think Liverpool would have to win by 4 or 5 clear goals tomorrow to get into the top 4.
    Eh? It's mathematically impossible for Liverpool to get in the top 4 this weekend, they're only on 2 points, 4th is already on 7 points.
    Yeah, misread that.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ponder that we are getting to the last chance for revelation announcement for La Truss prior to the election result. Although if the left wing red tops have it then maybe they are waiting until after the results.

    It was put to me.

    Bit late to swing results. Mind you sunak is so inept he may not realise that and may be saving something up.

    Quite a lot of sex and drugs and republicanism and charging for the NHS baked in with Liz, and you can get away with most things these days.
    Foresees an earlier GE than 2024 with you know how ready to ride to the rescue.
    BTW we have a live bet, on which I expect to concede on 6 September.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Seal, surprised by the score line. Leeds were 6 to beat Chelsea. The odds on a 3-0 win must have been very tasty.

    Appointing Bielsa, then sacking Bielsa when they did, and appointing Jesse Marsch looks like three leftrield genius decisions in a row.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    Pizza topping thread next?
    No, if it’s at the request of @ydoethur , it will possibly be about the next Swedish PM being the chair of IKEA.

    And how he will assemble his cabinet.
    If you want a thread on that, do it yourself.
    A fascinating topic, but too many pieces to fit together I fear.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    kinabalu said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Mark, for what it's worth, I backed Manchester United at 5 to win. Unlikely, but thought it worth a shot.

    Surprised by Liverpool's faltering start. Less surprised by Manchester United underperforming. Good odds for both their initial defeats.

    I backed them for top 4 straight after the Brentford debacle and at the very peak of "Manchester United Football Club" woeballing by the Sky pundits.

    I like this betting technique.
    3 points nailed on when they come to Leicester on 1st Sept if Rogers still in charge.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    I'm never going to live that down, am I?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Lol, 538 now have Man Utd as likely to go down as finish in the Top 4:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

    In reality, I think it should be more like 2% to finish Top 4 and 2% to go down.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    The Toon losing already
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Carnyx said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    We need Labour with C&S from Lib Dems.

    PR is now essential to re-build our broken country

    Why not SNP? They've been consistently in support of voting reform.
    Let's be very clear: the SNP aren't interested in the good governance of the United Kingdom.

    They want one thing and one thing only: the end of the Union. And they couldn't give a scoobies how it's achieved, or what the collateral damage would be.

    It doesn't matter if you're Labour, Liberal Democrat or Conservative. None of the mainstream British political parties should touch them with a bargepole.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    Pizza topping thread next?
    No, if it’s at the request of @ydoethur , it will possibly be about the next Swedish PM being the chair of IKEA.

    And how he will assemble his cabinet.
    If you want a thread on that, do it yourself.
    I suspect the cabinet will fall flat, packed with his colleagues who will either be board or have a screw loose.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    Pizza topping thread next?
    No, if it’s at the request of @ydoethur , it will possibly be about the next Swedish PM being the chair of IKEA.

    And how he will assemble his cabinet.
    If you want a thread on that, do it yourself.
    I suspect the cabinet will fall flat, packed with his colleagues who will either be board or have a screw loose.
    With too many knobs in it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Gallowgate said:

    The Toon losing already

    They’ve been the better side since they conceded but can’t quite close the deal.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The Toon losing already

    They’ve been the better side since they conceded but can’t quite close the deal.
    Aye, we’re not shite. Amazing really
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    Ponder that we are getting to the last chance for revelation announcement for La Truss prior to the election result. Although if the left wing red tops have it then maybe they are waiting until after the results.

    It was put to me.

    Bit late to swing results. Mind you sunak is so inept he may not realise that and may be saving something up.

    Quite a lot of sex and drugs and republicanism and charging for the NHS baked in with Liz, and you can get away with most things these days.
    Foresees an earlier GE than 2024 with you know how ready to ride to the rescue.
    BTW we have a live bet, on which I expect to concede on 6 September.
    Arghh what was it?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    1-1 :D
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Gallowgate said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The Toon losing already

    They’ve been the better side since they conceded but can’t quite close the deal.
    Aye, we’re not shite. Amazing really
    Deserved. And why it was ever even thought to be offside I’ve no idea
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited August 2022
    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The Toon losing already

    They’ve been the better side since they conceded but can’t quite close the deal.
    Aye, we’re not shite. Amazing really
    Deserved. And why it was ever even thought to be offside I’ve no idea
    Saw the Aston Villa/Crystal Palace game (MOTD). Some shocking VAR decisions, as agreed even by the BBC commentator - ruining the game, he said.

    And I must say that on MOTD when "VAR" comes up on the screen in big brash red and blue it seems like a satire on the future of football and how it will be destroyed which could come straight out of either The Day Today or Black Mirror.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited August 2022
    Casino_Royale said:

    Carnyx said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    We need Labour with C&S from Lib Dems.

    PR is now essential to re-build our broken country

    Why not SNP? They've been consistently in support of voting reform.
    Let's be very clear: the SNP aren't interested in the good governance of the United Kingdom.

    They want one thing and one thing only: the end of the Union. And they couldn't give a scoobies how it's achieved, or what the collateral damage would be.

    It doesn't matter if you're Labour, Liberal Democrat or Conservative. None of the mainstream British political parties should touch them with a bargepole.
    "They want one thing and one thing only: the end of the Union. And they couldn't give a scoobies how it's achieved, or what the collateral damage would be."

    Hmm where have I heard similar sentiments before. I take it you are a huge fan of Scottish independence.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The Toon losing already

    They’ve been the better side since they conceded but can’t quite close the deal.
    Aye, we’re not shite. Amazing really
    Deserved. And why it was ever even thought to be offside I’ve no idea
    Saw the Aston Villa/Crystal Palace game (MOTD). Some shocking VAR decisions, as agreed even by the BBC commentator - ruining the game, he said.

    And I must say that on MOTD when "VAR" comes up on the screen it seems like a satire on the future of football and how it will be destroyed which could come straight out of either The Day Today or Black Mirror.
    Generally I agree but the system worked in this case

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    DougSeal said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The Toon losing already

    They’ve been the better side since they conceded but can’t quite close the deal.
    Aye, we’re not shite. Amazing really
    Deserved. And why it was ever even thought to be offside I’ve no idea
    Saw the Aston Villa/Crystal Palace game (MOTD). Some shocking VAR decisions, as agreed even by the BBC commentator - ruining the game, he said.

    And I must say that on MOTD when "VAR" comes up on the screen it seems like a satire on the future of football and how it will be destroyed which could come straight out of either The Day Today or Black Mirror.
    Generally I agree but the system worked in this case

    Well it will of course work de temps en temps but the question is overall does it harm the game. Do we want an goal disallowed because a computer determines that Player A's shirtsleeve was 1.5mm offside? Perhaps we do. I'm not sure I do, that said, and am happy to take the word of the assistant referee or to limit VAR usage to, say, three per side which the manager can trigger.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    Casino_Royale said:

    Carnyx said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    We need Labour with C&S from Lib Dems.

    PR is now essential to re-build our broken country

    Why not SNP? They've been consistently in support of voting reform.
    Let's be very clear: the SNP aren't interested in the good governance of the United Kingdom.

    They want one thing and one thing only: the end of the Union. And they couldn't give a scoobies how it's achieved, or what the collateral damage would be.

    It doesn't matter if you're Labour, Liberal Democrat or Conservative. None of the mainstream British political parties should touch them with a bargepole.
    Luckily we have a few recent years of good governance of the UK so we know what it looks like.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    TOPPING said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    DougSeal said:

    Gallowgate said:

    The Toon losing already

    They’ve been the better side since they conceded but can’t quite close the deal.
    Aye, we’re not shite. Amazing really
    Deserved. And why it was ever even thought to be offside I’ve no idea
    Saw the Aston Villa/Crystal Palace game (MOTD). Some shocking VAR decisions, as agreed even by the BBC commentator - ruining the game, he said.

    And I must say that on MOTD when "VAR" comes up on the screen it seems like a satire on the future of football and how it will be destroyed which could come straight out of either The Day Today or Black Mirror.
    Generally I agree but the system worked in this case

    Well it will of course work de temps en temps but the question is overall does it harm the game. Do we want an goal disallowed because a computer determines that Player A's shirtsleeve was 1.5mm offside? Perhaps we do. I'm not sure I do, that said, and am happy to take the word of the assistant referee or to limit VAR usage to, say, three per side
    which the manager can trigger.
    Fair. But I’m quite heavily supporting Newcastle here and was caught in the moment!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,459
    Holy shit 2-1
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Woot! Yay!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm still suffering from writer's block so here's an AV thread

    This thread is at the behest of @ydoethur who asked for an AV thread last week on the topology thread.

    Pizza topping thread next?
    No, if it’s at the request of @ydoethur , it will possibly be about the next Swedish PM being the chair of IKEA.

    And how he will assemble his cabinet.
    If you want a thread on that, do it yourself.
    I suspect the cabinet will fall flat, packed with his colleagues who will either be board or have a screw loose.
    With too many knobs in it.
    More screwing than is usually required for anything from IKEA.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Gallowgate said:

    Holy shit 2-1

    You could/should be further ahead TBH.
This discussion has been closed.