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LAB up to a 15% lead with YouGov – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,163
edited August 2022 in General
LAB up to a 15% lead with YouGov – politicalbetting.com

EXCLUSIVE:Labour has surged to biggest lead over Tories for nearly a decade, Yougov/ Times poll findsLabour: 43Conservatives: 28Lib Dem: 11The 15 point lead is the biggest for Labour since February 2013 in wake of omnishambles budgethttps://t.co/XjcdQfZjmu

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 43% (+4)
    CON: 28% (-2)
    LDEM: 11% (-1)

    via @YouGov
    Chgs. w/ 10 Aug
    https://t.co/5ksWvdaiby

    Boom!

    Any other leader would be 20 points ahead etc...
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    They surely won't get it on a polling day, but gives Starmer something to wave in the faces of the Zionism-obsessives.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Big John please explain.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The Truss years weeks are going to be special
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    edited August 2022
    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited August 2022
    Truss u-turn incoming . Her tax plans were just being misquoted by those horrible leftie journalists ! What she really meant to say was we will end up freezing the energy cap but it won’t be called that because then Labour would get the credit .

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    As per the smiling Gordons and Camerons of PB years gone by, should we not have fifteen Union flags for such a large lead as this?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    As I said on the last thread this depends entirely on how she deals with energy and the col immediately in September and to be honest I haven't a clue what she will do or announce
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    I just dont see it now. Why would she get a giant bounce against this backdrop?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    As I said on the last thread this depends entirely on how she deals with energy and the col immediately in September and to be honest I haven't a clue what she will do or announce
    Why I have been betting on a Tory poll lead in September
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Oh my, we won't see Mr Gove standing for Fraserhead and Peterburgh after all. What a shame.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    edited August 2022
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    As I said on the last thread this depends entirely on how she deals with energy and the col immediately in September and to be honest I haven't a clue what she will do or announce
    That's a good comment.

    The new administration will be very beholden to circumstances - far more than they needed to be.

    Plus we need opposition parties with policies with more content.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    As I said on the last thread this depends entirely on how she deals with energy and the col immediately in September and to be honest I haven't a clue what she will do or announce
    I reckon so. If she sticks to the “tax cuts” only stuff, it’s an easy Labour win
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    wooliedyed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    I just dont see it now. Why would she get a giant bounce against this backdrop?
    She's not called Alexander and de Pfeffel for her first two names?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    "Liz Truss is a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain. It must all come crashing down" | ✍️ @MathewParris3 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    As I said on the last thread this depends entirely on how she deals with energy and the col immediately in September and to be honest I haven't a clue what she will do or announce
    nor has she
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Has Michael Gove ever been to Finland?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    I don't know what the point of that is - it's just one poll and probably an outlier. David Cameron enjoyed 20 point leads in 2008 and 2009 after the global financial crash but couldn't win a majority in 2010.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    As I said on the last thread this depends entirely on how she deals with energy and the col immediately in September and to be honest I haven't a clue what she will do or announce
    Defend statues, attack the nasty unions, start a war somewhere far away. Are they conveniently withdrawing forces from the Falklands? We should be told.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    edited August 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    "Liz Truss is a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain. It must all come crashing down" | ✍️ @MathewParris3 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    God, I hate these overconfident Oxbridge types, they need some humility or is it humiliation?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The Tories need to be destroyed at the next GE to bring them to their senses because I expect the next two years with Truss are going to be horrific . Nationalism on steroids, divisive politics , picking fights with the EU and othering as a means to try and deflect from the economic calamity .

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Scott_xP said:

    "Liz Truss is a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain. It must all come crashing down" | ✍️ @MathewParris3 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    Parris not liking someone - great sign.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    What the Tories must be dreading is that this poll slump is driven by a combination of Boris's imminent departure and the voters' having made up their minds already about his successor. And Liz won't do calm and reassuring; she'll embark upon shock-and-awe politics in the hope that everyone will response favourably to her mad audacity. Hold tight!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    nico679 said:

    Truss u-turn incoming . Her tax plans were just being misquoted by those horrible leftie journalists ! What she really meant to say was we will end up freezing the energy cap but it won’t be called that because then Labour would get the credit .

    It is more likely she will accept the proposals from the energy companies which amount to the same thing but preserve investment in North Sea gas
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    wooliedyed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    I just dont see it now. Why would she get a giant bounce against this backdrop?
    Gordon Brown and the poundshop Gordon Brown both got bounces when they first became PM.

    History suggests...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    I’ll wager that at the outset most readers thought Liz Truss a bit weird, curiously hollow and potentially dangerous. This summer a short period will see such rushes to judgment revised. Then government will descend into a huge effort to contain and defang an unstable prime minister; and we shall revert to our first impressions. Save yourself the detour and stick with them. She’s crackers. It isn’t going to work.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "Liz Truss is a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain. It must all come crashing down" | ✍️ @MathewParris3 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    God, I hate these overconfident Oxbridge types, they need some humility or is it humiliation?
    Now, now. None of those insinuations please.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited August 2022
    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    wooliedyed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    I just dont see it now. Why would she get a giant bounce against this backdrop?
    Gordon Brown and the poundshop Gordon Brown both got bounces when they first became PM.

    History suggests...
    Poundshop GB?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    wooliedyed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    I just dont see it now. Why would she get a giant bounce against this backdrop?
    Gordon Brown and the poundshop Gordon Brown both got bounces when they first became PM.

    History suggests...
    Poundshop GB?
    Theresa May.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    wooliedyed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    I just dont see it now. Why would she get a giant bounce against this backdrop?
    Gordon Brown and the poundshop Gordon Brown both got bounces when they first became PM.

    History suggests...
    Poundshop GB?
    Theresa May.
    Thanks.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    wooliedyed said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    I just dont see it now. Why would she get a giant bounce against this backdrop?
    Gordon Brown and the poundshop Gordon Brown both got bounces when they first became PM.

    History suggests...
    Poundshops bounce was small initially, took 3 months to really take off, same with Bozmoz
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    edited August 2022
    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "Liz Truss is a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain. It must all come crashing down" | ✍️ @MathewParris3 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    God, I hate these overconfident Oxbridge types, they need some humility or is it humiliation?
    Now, now. None of those insinuations please.
    No insinuations at all, I'm just glad PB isn't plagued by an overconfident Oxbridge type.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    Scott_xP said:

    I’ll wager that at the outset most readers thought Liz Truss a bit weird, curiously hollow and potentially dangerous. This summer a short period will see such rushes to judgment revised. Then government will descend into a huge effort to contain and defang an unstable prime minister; and we shall revert to our first impressions. Save yourself the detour and stick with them. She’s crackers. It isn’t going to work.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    Isn't the Times supporting Sunak so is hardly unbiased

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    Politics in September is going to be very interesting
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    stodge said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    I don't know what the point of that is - it's just one poll and probably an outlier. David Cameron enjoyed 20 point leads in 2008 and 2009 after the global financial crash but couldn't win a majority in 2010.
    Yep the famous MORI poll had him 28 points clear and gaining Glasgow South on UNS
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,433
    Stark_Dawning said:

    What the Tories must be dreading is that this poll slump is driven by a combination of Boris's imminent departure and the voters' having made up their minds already about his successor. And Liz won't do calm and reassuring; she'll embark upon shock-and-awe politics in the hope that everyone will response favourably to her mad audacity. Hold tight!

    Oh I do hope so.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    The whole point of the article is that first impressions are correct.

    And the first impression of Truss is unmitigated disaster, in a skirt.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited August 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carnyx said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "Liz Truss is a planet-sized mass of overconfidence and ambition teetering upon a pinhead of a political brain. It must all come crashing down" | ✍️ @MathewParris3 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    God, I hate these overconfident Oxbridge types, they need some humility or is it humiliation?
    Now, now. None of those insinuations please.
    No insinuations at all, I'm just PB isn't plagued by an overconfident Oxbridge type.
    Bit unfair, they are trained that way, can't help it any more than a SAS type can't help killing you silently with one hand if you wake him up suddenly.

    Reminds me of those paperback books in the '60s, '70s on how to bluff your way in football, sailing, etc. What were they called? The art of crude football etc.? I just can't remember.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    You never know Truss might get lucky . The Ukraine Russia war ends , energy prices fall and with it inflation . Alternatively her tax plans don’t work and she fails to provide enough help .

    And then it all unravels and she’s gone within a year . There’s no real love for Truss by the members or the parliamentary party and so I wouldn’t rule out another leadership election within the year .

    The public might of course not think much of this but if the Tories think they’re badly screwed with Truss I doubt they’ll be showing much loyalty .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going awol
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Carnyx said:

    Reminds me of those books in the '60s, '70s on how to bluff your way in football, sailing, etc. What were they called? The art of crude football etc.? I just can't remember.

    The Art of Coarse whatever...

    Rugby was a favourite of mine
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    image

    :)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    Scott_xP said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    The whole point of the article is that first impressions are correct.

    And the first impression of Truss is unmitigated disaster, in a skirt.
    Sounds misogynistic to me
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    Reminds me of those books in the '60s, '70s on how to bluff your way in football, sailing, etc. What were they called? The art of crude football etc.? I just can't remember.

    The Art of Coarse whatever...

    Rugby was a favourite of mine
    That's it. Thanks.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited August 2022
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going awol
    Oh its at least a fortnight too long, and they should have known that as you say. Old lady Ma Brady has been whinging today about getting it wrong
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    nico679 said:

    The Tories need to be destroyed at the next GE to bring them to their senses because I expect the next two years with Truss are going to be horrific . Nationalism on steroids, divisive politics , picking fights with the EU and othering as a means to try and deflect from the economic calamity .

    If the Tories are destroyed at the next election, whilst it might be gratifying to see, it’ll put the cause of electoral reform and a more proportional system back by a decade or more. A narrow Labour minority win on the other hand should hopefully spell the beginning of the end of our ludicrous FPTP system where voters have the kind of awful choice they were faced with in 2019.

    Worth noting than when Ed enjoyed a brief period of double digit leads in spring 2013,
    UKIP were on nearly 10% and rising. Now RefUK are a rounding error.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    The whole point of the article is that first impressions are correct.

    And the first impression of Truss is unmitigated disaster, in a skirt.
    Sounds misogynistic to me
    Next you'll be saying criticisms of Sir Gavin Williamson is misandry.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going
    awol
    I’ve absolutely no idea why the 1922 committed to a campaign of this length
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    The trend is your friend.

    There ain't going to be a Truss bounce of consequence. She is as mad as a box of frogs but with the delivery of a robot gone wrong.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going awol
    Why is it ludicrous?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    stodge said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    I don't know what the point of that is - it's just one poll and probably an outlier. David Cameron enjoyed 20 point leads in 2008 and 2009 after the global financial crash but couldn't win a majority in 2010.
    So you know what the point is.

    Midterm polls aren't guarantees of anything. Ed Miliband got 13 point poll leads and failed to become PM. David Cameron got 20 point leads and failed to get a majority. Jeremy Corbyn got some 10 point poll leads and led Labour to its worst performance since before WWII later that year.

    It seems some people think Sir Keir Starmer has the next election in the bag because he has the same opinion poll lead that Ed Miliband once had.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    MikeSmithson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    As I said on the last thread this depends entirely on how she deals with energy and the col immediately in September and to be honest I haven't a clue what she will do or announce
    Why I have been betting on a Tory poll lead in September
    No Tory poll leads for EIGHT MONTHS and 13 DAYS...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    Could Starmer fans please explain why in the face of the UK's biggest economic catastrophe sine 1979, Liz Truss's Conservatives are predicted to be a whopping double digits ahead of Starmer's Labour?

    P.S. Have I beaten BJO to that one?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Good to see Gove stabbing Truss in the front. Tories would be wise to listen to him, he's probably the only former member of Boris Johnson's Cabinet who isn't an eedjit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    Andy_JS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going awol
    Why is it ludicrous?
    It is far too long and the country want a functioning government
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I’ll wager that at the outset most readers thought Liz Truss a bit weird, curiously hollow and potentially dangerous. This summer a short period will see such rushes to judgment revised. Then government will descend into a huge effort to contain and defang an unstable prime minister; and we shall revert to our first impressions. Save yourself the detour and stick with them. She’s crackers. It isn’t going to work.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    Isn't the Times supporting Sunak so is hardly unbiased

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    Politics in September is going to be very interesting
    Its not a leader by The Times though, its an opinion piece by Matthew Parris who is himself crackers, driven mad by Brexit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    Razedabode said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going
    awol
    I’ve absolutely no idea why the 1922 committed to a campaign of this length
    Nor have I
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    image

    :)
    For a moment I thought you were posting another Dall:E picture.

    “Labour enjoying a 15% lead in a Yougov poll, with the Lib Dems on 11%. In the style of Leonara Carrington”.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going awol
    Why is it ludicrous?
    It is far too long and the country want a functioning government
    It isn't remotely far too long, getting the right person PM who can sort out the issues is far more important than PBers getting their Next PM bets paid out a week sooner.

    Parliament is in recess anyway. There's nothing that can or would be done right now even without a leadership election campaign. Spending Silly Season debating the issues and getting the best person to be next PM is a good idea, not a bad one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Perhaps Starmer should stay on holiday.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I’ll wager that at the outset most readers thought Liz Truss a bit weird, curiously hollow and potentially dangerous. This summer a short period will see such rushes to judgment revised. Then government will descend into a huge effort to contain and defang an unstable prime minister; and we shall revert to our first impressions. Save yourself the detour and stick with them. She’s crackers. It isn’t going to work.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    Isn't the Times supporting Sunak so is hardly unbiased

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    Politics in September is going to be very interesting
    Its not a leader by The Times though, its an opinion piece by Matthew Parris who is himself crackers, driven mad by Brexit.
    Nonetheless, Murdoch does clearly support Sunak vs Dacre’s support for Liz.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    edited August 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Perhaps Starmer should stay on holiday.

    Judging on the write up by The Times it is his policies on energy prices which is driving this.

    The supplementaries on this are great for Starmer.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    Razedabode said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going
    awol
    I’ve absolutely no idea why the 1922 committed to a campaign of this length
    Neither have the 1922...
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    TimS said:

    nico679 said:

    The Tories need to be destroyed at the next GE to bring them to their senses because I expect the next two years with Truss are going to be horrific . Nationalism on steroids, divisive politics , picking fights with the EU and othering as a means to try and deflect from the economic calamity .

    If the Tories are destroyed at the next election, whilst it might be gratifying to see, it’ll put the cause of electoral reform and a more proportional system back by a decade or more. A narrow Labour minority win on the other hand should hopefully spell the beginning of the end of our ludicrous FPTP system where voters have the kind of awful choice they were faced with in 2019.

    Worth noting than when Ed enjoyed a brief period of double digit leads in spring 2013,
    UKIP were on nearly 10% and rising. Now RefUK are a rounding error.
    Let’s hope the public get behind changing FPTP. It will have to be a referendum though I would have thought to get that change .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Wow. Gove.

    The famous quote about Tallyrand comes to mind.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Razedabode said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going
    awol
    I’ve absolutely no idea why the 1922 committed to a campaign of this length
    Tory members' holidays were foremost in their thinking ISTR.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Foxy said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    The trend is your friend.

    There ain't going to be a Truss bounce of consequence. She is as mad as a box of frogs but with the delivery of a robot gone wrong.
    I couldn't care less if there's a midterm bounce or not. There's not going to be a midterm General Election so what difference does it make.

    Truss is great and the right person to be next PM, whether she wins the next election or not. If she keeps her promises and can ride out the next two years getting us through this winter with some sort of solution, reversing the NI hikes, continuing to support Ukraine, leading the West in not abandoning Ukraine this winter so that Russia lose the war, and then getting through to the other side of the war with commodity prices falling back down instead of marching up thanks to Putin's madness . . .

    . . . If she can do all that, and its a big if, then she'll deserve to win the next election. If she can't do all that, she won't deserve to do so.

    Of course whether she wins it or not isn't the same as whether she deserves to or not, but if she can do all that she'll confound her critics and deserve a vote.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Razedabode said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    wooliedyed said:

    stodge said:

    That's a swing of 14% from Conservative to Labour from 2019. It's also an 8% swing from Conservative to Liberal Democrat.

    That's landslide territory for Starmer and would leave the Conservative somewhere near their 1997 numbers when the national swing to Labour was 10%.

    What tends to happen is once you crop the marginals there's not much (relatively) until you get into the middle areas of swing (say 10-15%) where there's another batch of seats previously considered safe but which would become the new marginals.

    On these numbers, Labour are into most of these and inevitably would pick up the odd seat on even bigger swings (perhaps approaching 20% as in 1997). Other seats with lower swings would be missed (as also happens).

    Its slso a swing in yougov's polling of 7% in 3 weeks! Fairly bouncy stuff. I'm guessing theres some volatility starting to creep in to the polling thats been absent due to the looming crises. Techne didnt report today for some reason, would have been nice to see if theyve also found a sudden lurch this week. Opinium tomorrow will have the swingback smoothing, so unless ComRes report we wont see anything else new till Monday's Redfield.
    I think the Tories will be getting fairly desperate for an end to the leadership battle
    They should have realised that when they embarked on this ludicrous election campaign and are justifiable getting trounced for going
    awol
    I’ve absolutely no idea why the 1922 committed to a campaign of this length
    Nor have I
    So Brady could have a decently long holiday in August is one theory I have seen.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    Could Starmer fans please explain why in the face of the UK's biggest economic catastrophe sine 1979, Liz Truss's Conservatives are predicted to be a whopping double digits ahead of Starmer's Labour?

    P.S. Have I beaten BJO to that one?

    Don’t they mean her bounce might be double digits not that she’ll have a double digit lead in the polls .
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,898
    Some money for Rishi after tonight's hustings.

    Betfair next prime minister
    1.06 Liz Truss 94%
    16.5 Rishi Sunak 6%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.05 Liz Truss 95%
    14 Rishi Sunak 7%
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    Scott_xP said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    The whole point of the article is that first impressions are correct.

    And the first impression of Truss is unmitigated disaster, in a skirt.
    I'm trying to think of an exception to the principle that character is destiny, and character is largely fixed by the time you've reached Cabinet level in politics.

    Johnson was always going to crash over a silly lie. May was never supple and subtle, Cameron was always too willing to gamble on his brilliance. Brown trusted nobody. Blair was too much the Messiah. And so on.

    So- Truss's doom will come from enacting a mad idea that she refuses to be talked out of. And since she has many ideas, her game of Russian Roulette should play out fairly quickly.

    Any counterexamples?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    edited August 2022
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I’ll wager that at the outset most readers thought Liz Truss a bit weird, curiously hollow and potentially dangerous. This summer a short period will see such rushes to judgment revised. Then government will descend into a huge effort to contain and defang an unstable prime minister; and we shall revert to our first impressions. Save yourself the detour and stick with them. She’s crackers. It isn’t going to work.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    Isn't the Times supporting Sunak so is hardly unbiased

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    Politics in September is going to be very interesting
    Its not a leader by The Times though, its an opinion piece by Matthew Parris who is himself crackers, driven mad by Brexit.
    Can you give some examples of Parris's Brexit insanity - other than thinking it not being a terribly good idea, a judgement now shared by the majority of the population?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    Good to see Gove stabbing Truss in the front. Tories would be wise to listen to him, he's probably the only former member of Boris Johnson's Cabinet who isn't an eedjit.

    The King over the water just got a chief courtier me thinks.

    Will Sunak bother to see what happens and run for LOTO in 2025? Or will he head off to CA this winter?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    Could Starmer fans please explain why in the face of the UK's biggest economic catastrophe sine 1979, Liz Truss's Conservatives are predicted to be a whopping double digits ahead of Starmer's Labour?

    P.S. Have I beaten BJO to that one?
    Double digits?

    No way imho.

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    nico679 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    Could Starmer fans please explain why in the face of the UK's biggest economic catastrophe sine 1979, Liz Truss's Conservatives are predicted to be a whopping double digits ahead of Starmer's Labour?

    P.S. Have I beaten BJO to that one?

    Don’t they mean her bounce might be double digits not that she’ll have a double digit lead in the polls .
    A double digit bounce would put her double digits ahead on most recent polling, if the Tories were on 42/43/44, labour would likely be low 30s
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    rottenborough said:

    Wow. Gove.

    The famous quote about Tallyrand comes to mind.

    What's Gove said?

    Its been obvious all along despite Gove's ramping of Badenoch that he's been on Team Sunak. Everyone else normally linked to Gove was backing Sunak and yet for some reason Gove was ramping Badenoch who was appealing to the same sort of MPs that Truss was appealing to, funny that. Said all along that Gove was the one person Machiavellian enough to be backing Badenoch formally in order to try to help Sunak win.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited August 2022
    Stuartinromford said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    The whole point of the article is that first impressions are correct.

    And the first impression of Truss is unmitigated disaster, in a skirt.
    I'm trying to think of an exception to the principle that character is destiny, and character is largely fixed by the time you've reached Cabinet level in politics.

    Johnson was always going to crash over a silly lie. May was never supple and subtle, Cameron was always too willing to gamble on his brilliance. Brown trusted nobody. Blair was too much the Messiah. And so on.

    So- Truss's doom will come from enacting a mad idea that she refuses to be talked out of. And since she has many ideas, her game of Russian Roulette should play out fairly quickly.

    Any counterexamples?
    Wilson stepped down on his own terms. Admittedly after losing one of five elections.
    I'm not sure we can write Truss off just yet.
    But she's received the baton 20 metres behind. Running through a minefield. With the spectators shooting at her.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    nico679 said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Internal Labour analysis has predicted that if Truss wins she will experience an initial bounce in the polls which could stretch into double digits. The party believes that Johnson’s abysmal ratings will inflate the usual rise in support achieved when a party elects a new leader.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-takes-biggest-poll-lead-in-tenyears-as-cost-of-living-crisis-bites-fdfrkwnms

    Could Starmer fans please explain why in the face of the UK's biggest economic catastrophe sine 1979, Liz Truss's Conservatives are predicted to be a whopping double digits ahead of Starmer's Labour?

    P.S. Have I beaten BJO to that one?

    Don’t they mean her bounce might be double digits not that she’ll have a double digit lead in the polls .
    Either will be good enough for BJO.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Stuartinromford said:

    So- Truss's doom will come from enacting a mad idea that she refuses to be talked out of. And since she has many ideas, her game of Russian Roulette should play out fairly quickly.

    Any counterexamples?

    No

    Thus was it foretold, and thus will it come to pass...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Foxy said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    The trend is your friend.

    There ain't going to be a Truss bounce of consequence. She is as mad as a box of frogs but with the delivery of a robot gone wrong.
    I couldn't care less if there's a midterm bounce or not. There's not going to be a midterm General Election so what difference does it make.

    Truss is great and the right person to be next PM, whether she wins the next election or not. If she keeps her promises and can ride out the next two years getting us through this winter with some sort of solution, reversing the NI hikes, continuing to support Ukraine, leading the West in not abandoning Ukraine this winter so that Russia lose the war, and then getting through to the other side of the war with commodity prices falling back down instead of marching up thanks to Putin's madness . . .

    . . . If she can do all that, and its a big if, then she'll deserve to win the next election. If she can't do all that, she won't deserve to do so.

    Of course whether she wins it or not isn't the same as whether she deserves to or not, but if she can do all that she'll confound her critics and deserve a vote.
    I would agree with you if she can achieve these aims and I would also caution those who seem ready to write her off even before she takes office and appoints her Cabinet

    I continue to sit on the fence as I just do not know her sufficiently to pass an opinion at this stage
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Stark_Dawning said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I’ll wager that at the outset most readers thought Liz Truss a bit weird, curiously hollow and potentially dangerous. This summer a short period will see such rushes to judgment revised. Then government will descend into a huge effort to contain and defang an unstable prime minister; and we shall revert to our first impressions. Save yourself the detour and stick with them. She’s crackers. It isn’t going to work.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/theres-no-more-to-truss-than-meets-the-eye-k8f793397

    Isn't the Times supporting Sunak so is hardly unbiased

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    Politics in September is going to be very interesting
    Its not a leader by The Times though, its an opinion piece by Matthew Parris who is himself crackers, driven mad by Brexit.
    Can you give some examples of Parris's Brexit insanity - other than thinking it not being a terribly good idea, a judgement now shared by the majority of the population?
    Parris has been a card carrying New European/Scott_xP/Adam Bienkov/FBPE ranter and raver for the past few years.

    If you consider that crowd rational, then bully for you.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Foxy said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    The trend is your friend.

    There ain't going to be a Truss bounce of consequence. She is as mad as a box of frogs but with the delivery of a robot gone wrong.
    I couldn't care less if there's a midterm bounce or not. There's not going to be a midterm General Election so what difference does it make.

    Truss is great and the right person to be next PM, whether she wins the next election or not. If she keeps her promises and can ride out the next two years getting us through this winter with some sort of solution, reversing the NI hikes, continuing to support Ukraine, leading the West in not abandoning Ukraine this winter so that Russia lose the war, and then getting through to the other side of the war with commodity prices falling back down instead of marching up thanks to Putin's madness . . .

    . . . If she can do all that, and its a big if, then she'll deserve to win the next election. If she can't do all that, she won't deserve to do so.

    Of course whether she wins it or not isn't the same as whether she deserves to or not, but if she can do all that she'll confound her critics and deserve a vote.
    I would agree with you if she can achieve these aims and I would also caution those who seem ready to write her off even before she takes office and appoints her Cabinet

    I continue to sit on the fence as I just do not know her sufficiently to pass an opinion at this stage
    C'mon man! You would vote for a pigs bladder on a stick if it had a blue rosette. Why the pretence?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    stodge said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    I don't know what the point of that is - it's just one poll and probably an outlier. David Cameron enjoyed 20 point leads in 2008 and 2009 after the global financial crash but couldn't win a majority in 2010.
    So you know what the point is.

    Midterm polls aren't guarantees of anything. Ed Miliband got 13 point poll leads and failed to become PM. David Cameron got 20 point leads and failed to get a majority. Jeremy Corbyn got some 10 point poll leads and led Labour to its worst performance since before WWII later that year.

    It seems some people think Sir Keir Starmer has the next election in the bag because he has the same opinion poll lead that Ed Miliband once had.
    The data tables for this YouGov aren't released yet, but if you look at those for the Ipsos-Mori 14% lead you can see that the Labour lead is pretty small if you only include 2019GE voters, and there are more undecided amongst 2019 Tories.

    If the voters who didn't vote in 2019 don't vote again, and the Tories win back some of those uncertain about sticking with them, then the Tories would have a comfy lead.

    This seems like a fairly normal mid-term polling pattern, but I suppose there's still time for Starmer to improve upon it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    If you’re going to get fired, go out with a bang. Gove laying down some serious markers here re a Truss premiership.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/as-the-truss-bandwagon-clatters-on-this-is-why-im-backing-rishi-sunak-xzx3d3tvl
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,679
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    rottenborough said:

    Wow. Gove.

    The famous quote about Tallyrand comes to mind.

    What's Gove said?

    Its been obvious all along despite Gove's ramping of Badenoch that he's been on Team Sunak. Everyone else normally linked to Gove was backing Sunak and yet for some reason Gove was ramping Badenoch who was appealing to the same sort of MPs that Truss was appealing to, funny that. Said all along that Gove was the one person Machiavellian enough to be backing Badenoch formally in order to try to help Sunak win.
    He's said she's gone a bit potty and her tax proposals will only benefit the richest CEOs in the country.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    stodge said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    I don't know what the point of that is - it's just one poll and probably an outlier. David Cameron enjoyed 20 point leads in 2008 and 2009 after the global financial crash but couldn't win a majority in 2010.
    So you know what the point is.

    Midterm polls aren't guarantees of anything. Ed Miliband got 13 point poll leads and failed to become PM. David Cameron got 20 point leads and failed to get a majority. Jeremy Corbyn got some 10 point poll leads and led Labour to its worst performance since before WWII later that year.

    It seems some people think Sir Keir Starmer has the next election in the bag because he has the same opinion poll lead that Ed Miliband once had.
    No one of any political sense thinks that just as no one should think Conservative re-election is guaranteed by a few tax cutting gimmicks and further homage to the shrine of St Laffer the Immaculate.

    There is a widespread perception the next 12 months will be difficult for many. You may dispute that and say the negativity is overdone. Perhaps but it will need a more interventionist Government than you might be able to stomach to ensure the "pain" is limited.

    It may well be this time next year things will look very different and the path to a Conservative re-election will be clearer - I don't know and neither do you. In a period which has seen a global pandemic and a renewed war on the edges of Europe it would be a foolish person who is dogmatic about the next election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Truss will take over in what could well be the worst economic and social circumstances since the War.

    Will she prove to be a good 'crisis' prime minister?

    She only has months to prove so.

  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    Stark_Dawning said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    rottenborough said:

    Wow. Gove.

    The famous quote about Tallyrand comes to mind.

    What's Gove said?

    Its been obvious all along despite Gove's ramping of Badenoch that he's been on Team Sunak. Everyone else normally linked to Gove was backing Sunak and yet for some reason Gove was ramping Badenoch who was appealing to the same sort of MPs that Truss was appealing to, funny that. Said all along that Gove was the one person Machiavellian enough to be backing Badenoch formally in order to try to help Sunak win.
    He's said she's gone a bit potty and her tax proposals will only benefit the richest CEOs in the country.
    So he's full of shit then.

    Increasing NI doesn't tax CEOs the most, it taxes people on PAYE the most. IE working people, as opposed to non-working people.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Foxy said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    The trend is your friend.

    There ain't going to be a Truss bounce of consequence. She is as mad as a box of frogs but with the delivery of a robot gone wrong.
    I couldn't care less if there's a midterm bounce or not. There's not going to be a midterm General Election so what difference does it make.

    Truss is great and the right person to be next PM, whether she wins the next election or not. If she keeps her promises and can ride out the next two years getting us through this winter with some sort of solution, reversing the NI hikes, continuing to support Ukraine, leading the West in not abandoning Ukraine this winter so that Russia lose the war, and then getting through to the other side of the war with commodity prices falling back down instead of marching up thanks to Putin's madness . . .

    . . . If she can do all that, and its a big if, then she'll deserve to win the next election. If she can't do all that, she won't deserve to do so.

    Of course whether she wins it or not isn't the same as whether she deserves to or not, but if she can do all that she'll confound her critics and deserve a vote.
    I would agree with you if she can achieve these aims and I would also caution those who seem ready to write her off even before she takes office and appoints her Cabinet

    I continue to sit on the fence as I just do not know her sufficiently to pass an opinion at this stage
    C'mon man! You would vote for a pigs bladder on a stick if it had a blue rosette. Why the pretence?
    Of course I will vote conservative now Johnson has gone but that does not stop me expressing concern at the party

    Sitting on the fence does not relate to my vote, it relates to just how much I consider Truss will be a success or otherwise
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited August 2022
    HYUFD said:


    Not if the neighbourhood plan filters into the Local Plan

    There are several circumstances where less weight will be given to the neighbourhood plan by an Inspector, which have already been explained, such as lack of 5 year housing land supply, or simply the plan being a little old (which given they take years to prepare is pretty unfair).

    If your council or MP is telling you the Neighbourhood Plan is all that matters you have been very irresponsibly advised.

    It's why many places who have been through the process - here's a exmaple from the shires

    https://www.gazetteandherald.co.uk/news/19842909.councillor-says-malmesbury-shafted-planning/

    The shortfall issue is due to a change to put the obligation on local authorities to demonstrate land supply.

    This is compounded by the fact that Neighbourhood Plans are not given the same weight in decisions if they are more than two years old – despite that the document covers the town until 2026.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526
    Stark_Dawning said:

    What the Tories must be dreading is that this poll slump is driven by a combination of Boris's imminent departure and the voters' having made up their minds already about his successor. And Liz won't do calm and reassuring; she'll embark upon shock-and-awe politics in the hope that everyone will response favourably to her mad audacity. Hold tight!

    My guess is that the bounce reflects Labour coming up with a coherent, popular policy on energy prices, while the Conservatives continue to beat each other up.

    Possibly some further Labour policies will help further?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    I love how barmy Starmer and his crowd of sycophants thinks that increasing National Insurance paid by people who work as opposed to those who don't is helping working people, reversing that tax rise is "a holiday from reality" while cutting Income Tax from 20% to 16% on everyone whether they work and pay national insurance or they don't is supposedly "reality" and sensible.

    Pull the other one. Slashing Income Tax to just 16% while lifting National Insurance isn't better economics and it is just ratchetting tax from unearned income to earned incomes. Anyone backing that, isn't fit for office.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    rottenborough said:

    Wow. Gove.

    The famous quote about Tallyrand comes to mind.

    What's Gove said?

    Its been obvious all along despite Gove's ramping of Badenoch that he's been on Team Sunak. Everyone else normally linked to Gove was backing Sunak and yet for some reason Gove was ramping Badenoch who was appealing to the same sort of MPs that Truss was appealing to, funny that. Said all along that Gove was the one person Machiavellian enough to be backing Badenoch formally in order to try to help Sunak win.
    He's said she's gone a bit potty and her tax proposals will only benefit the richest CEOs in the country.
    So he's full of shit then.

    Increasing NI doesn't tax CEOs the most, it taxes people on PAYE the most. IE working people, as opposed to non-working people.
    The Company tax changes will shovel profits to the CEOs in the form of dividends and share options.

    They can then keep us all warm by burning twenties in faces of plebs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    dixiedean said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    They may be right but equally they may be wrong

    The whole point of the article is that first impressions are correct.

    And the first impression of Truss is unmitigated disaster, in a skirt.
    I'm trying to think of an exception to the principle that character is destiny, and character is largely fixed by the time you've reached Cabinet level in politics.

    Johnson was always going to crash over a silly lie. May was never supple and subtle, Cameron was always too willing to gamble on his brilliance. Brown trusted nobody. Blair was too much the Messiah. And so on.

    So- Truss's doom will come from enacting a mad idea that she refuses to be talked out of. And since she has many ideas, her game of Russian Roulette should play out fairly quickly.

    Any counterexamples?
    Wilson stepped down on his own terms. Admittedly after losing one of five elections.
    I'm not sure we can write Truss off just yet.
    But she's received the baton 20 metres behind. Running through a minefield. With the spectators shooting at her.
    It is a mystery to me why Wilson is almost written out of Labour history. Never gets mentioned.

    Although the Newstatesman this week notes that, unusually for Lab, Starmer is a fan.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,041
    NickPalmer said:

    Stark_Dawning said:

    What the Tories must be dreading is that this poll slump is driven by a combination of Boris's imminent departure and the voters' having made up their minds already about his successor. And Liz won't do calm and reassuring; she'll embark upon shock-and-awe politics in the hope that everyone will response favourably to her mad audacity. Hold tight!

    My guess is that the bounce reflects Labour coming up with a coherent, popular policy on energy prices, while the Conservatives continue to beat each other up.

    Possibly some further Labour policies will help further?
    Some conservative policies would be good as well @NickPalmer
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    stodge said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Sir Keir Starmer has reached the same giddy heights as Prime Minister Ed Miliband in 2013.

    I don't know what the point of that is - it's just one poll and probably an outlier. David Cameron enjoyed 20 point leads in 2008 and 2009 after the global financial crash but couldn't win a majority in 2010.
    So you know what the point is.

    Midterm polls aren't guarantees of anything. Ed Miliband got 13 point poll leads and failed to become PM. David Cameron got 20 point leads and failed to get a majority. Jeremy Corbyn got some 10 point poll leads and led Labour to its worst performance since before WWII later that year.

    It seems some people think Sir Keir Starmer has the next election in the bag because he has the same opinion poll lead that Ed Miliband once had.
    Labour at least largest party is almost in the bag I think. But of course you never know. That's the beauty of live politics. That's why people love to watch it.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    I love how barmy Starmer and his crowd of sycophants thinks that increasing National Insurance paid by people who work as opposed to those who don't is helping working people, reversing that tax rise is "a holiday from reality" while cutting Income Tax from 20% to 16% on everyone whether they work and pay national insurance or they don't is supposedly "reality" and sensible.

    Pull the other one. Slashing Income Tax to just 16% while lifting National Insurance isn't better economics and it is just ratchetting tax from unearned income to earned incomes. Anyone backing that, isn't fit for office.

    Sycophant recognises sycophant.

    As for “isn't fit for office”. Ahem.

This discussion has been closed.