Categories
Options
It’s the energy cap, stupid – politicalbetting.com
It’s the energy cap, stupid – politicalbetting.com
My prediction for the popularity of Liz Truss and her government is closely tied to the where the price cap ends up this winter. If Truss sticks to her rhetoric of no handouts then there’s no floor to the government’s unpopularity.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
1.07 Liz Truss 93%
12 Rishi Sunak 8%
Next Conservative leader
1.07 Liz Truss 93%
13 Rishi Sunak 8%
I think Truss' margin would have to be extremely narrow (such as 51% to 49%) for it to have any impact at all on the probability of her future removal.
Truss is certain to remain in power until the election unless, either there is some big scandal, or else the Tories' position in the polls worsens significantly from the current levels & the members feel that she is the direct cause of this polling decline (e.g. through things such as poor communication skills or choosing bad policies).
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11108487/Octopus-Energy-boss-Greg-Jackson-tries-defuse-Prosecco-row.html
If what he says is true about the way OFGEN base their price on the cost of the highest source of energy, then quite clearly OFGEN is overdue for a massive clearout of its overpaid top staff.
But then the object of the exercise, as with everything this rotten government does, is to feather the nests of the Top Tories.
1) Saving the Govt a huge amount of interest on index linked gilts
2) Saving the Govt a huge amount on future inflation linked pension and benefit rises
3) Takes at least some pressure off demand for huge pay increases (both public and private) which would otherwise also increase inflation
It basically stops the spiral getting going in the first place.
Finally it is also by far the best bet electorally. The public has had it drummed into them that energy prices are about to go up massively. If that now doesn't happen, Truss will get lots of credit. The public won't care less about how it will be funded.
The trouble with averages is that you always seem to be on the wrong side of the average - or perhaps those on the wrong side are more upset. The danger for Truss or perhaps Sunak (becoming very slightly more likely IMO) is that their supporters/members will be on the wrong side of the average some with bills over £10,000 let alone £5,000.
As somebody pointed out a day or so ago it's not only domestic users who are looking with deep concern at energy prices. Businesses, small and large, must be concerned. How long will places like Iceland be able to cope without some serious effect on profits, and therefore prices. Furthermore large numbers of shops in city centres are now air-conditioned; that is going to become increasingly expensive to maintain.
I don't think that the government, any government, will be able to avoid some form of intervention in the energy price market.
So you "hope" that lots of people suffer from a policy misstep, so your party can have an electoral advantage ...
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-62466518
Although I would assume Truss as a not-very-good Tory would prioritise shareholders over taxpayers.
1.08 Liz Truss 93%
12.5 Rishi Sunak 8%
Next Conservative leader
1.08 Liz Truss 93%
13 Rishi Sunak 8%
You just cannot magic up the cost difference. If the public aren't paying, someone else has to.
Not according to William Hill. Arb time?
Starmer 10/11
Truss 6/5
Sunak 12/1
Johnson 25/1
Rayner 33/1
Badenoch 66/1
Burnham 66/1
Mordaunt 66/1
Streeting 66/1
Wallace 66/1
100 bar
Not sure why Burnham’s in there? He’s not even an MP and isn’t seeking nomination to a seat (unless @AndreaParma_82 knows different?)
What we need is an emergency program of investment in the supply side, to reduce our use of fossil fuels as quickly as possible. If the government is throwing £100bn at consumer subsidies then it won't be able to afford to do anything else.
I think this is correct. While unlikely, I do think that a Canada-scenario is feasible.
I note that Martin Baxter’s “Low Seats” prediction for the Tories is currently 102. As the shit hits the fan that number could fall.
This video of a Bury North focus group posted by @rottenborough on the previous thread is essential viewing for Conservatives. These are their 2019 voters. They are in pain. Deep pain. One hates to think what they are going to say in 12 months time.
https://twitter.com/TheNewsDesk/status/1557809256308641793
I periodically need reminding why I should never vote for them again.
Pb.com does serve that useful purpose.
Then implement it. Simple.
https://www.ft.com/content/ca215782-a3ba-4a85-997d-197769275a50
Müller also warned that the longer-term cost of ending Germany’s dependence on Russia would be a “very high gas price” that could have big consequences for business.
“Some production could move away from Germany because gas has become too expensive,” he said. “And that’s a difficult thing to happen.”
The resulting hot air will run them at 150% of nominal capacity 24/7.
I guess if Starmer wasn't a dud (a meme you repeat on here ad nauseam) it would have been 9 of 9.
More even than her predecessors Truss will have to be laser-like in looking after the interests of the Tories' elderly client vote.
Up to now, he has pulled his pinches when it counts. But...
Mr. Sandpit, good job Germany didn't do something really stupid like close a load of nuclear reactors because of something that happened in Japan due to an earthquake and tsunami, right?
The question is: was Merkel acting in the Russian interest, or just genuinely stupid when she made that call?
And now they're hooked on Russian gas.
To be fair, the West generally has made some bad calls (including with China) but this was especially foolish and unnecessary.
You can’t trust Liz.
Weather forecast here a bit worse today, slightly better tomorrow. I am very looking forward to Tuesday. Current strategy of staying up a bit later, than 1-2 hours listening to stuff, and then trying to sleep is working relatively well.
He called Rishi Sunak a 'p***'; said the economy was awful because it is run by 'blacks and women'. He got his penis out to a woman in the front row.'
He's treading a fine line, surely?
My hunch: younger Conservatives are more likely to mix with non-Tories, more likely to have done canvassing for the local elections, more likely to have picked up that the general public generally hate Boris.
Older Conservatives with generally smaller networks may not have noticed this, in which case "Boris was robbed" makes sense and Boris in a dress appeals a lot.
The problem in Japan was earthquake + tsunami. Germany is not renowned for tsunamis. The change was deranged, unless one takes the view she was acting more for Russia than Germany (not my opinion - I think she was a damned fool, tying her country to Russia for reasons that were stupid rather than treacherous).
I wish they would treat us like adults and publish the per kWh cap prices for electricity and gas. As it is those are quite hard to find.
I'd buy him this and tell him that it's no laughing matter.
One heck of an opportunity is about to be presented on a plate to the far-right. Farage’s latest vehicle is in by far the best position to mop up that type of voter.
I finally got round to reading that Spectator article Mike recommended yesterday. Jeepers creepers! You don’t usually see that kind of stuff in the Spectator! Pulls no punches. This is a party that is ripe for shedding voters left, centre… and right.
In those final fateful moments, you can observe highly intelligent, highly trained professionals making error after error, gradually dooming them and their passengers. Despite the ringing alarms of the onboard systems, they lose sight of what they are doing or how to avoid the impending doom. They pull the joystick instead of releasing it, they shut down the working engine instead of the failing one, or sometimes the two pilots pull in different directions, cancelling each other out. Eventually, they hit the Point of No Return and, shortly after, the ground.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-crisis-at-the-heart-of-the-modern-conservative-party
We have to accept that when international energy prices move this much we have to pay more for them. We need to use that as an incentive to drive down consumption, increase insulation, rapidly develop more domestic alternatives etc but the government cannot hide us from this. All of these subsidy policies are based on the concept this is a one off, like covid, that will come and go. That is almost certainly not the case. Even if the war in Ukraine ended in some messy stalemate can you really see us going back to buying Russian gas again? I can't. If this is not a one off but a new normal what the hell does the government do next year?
Sunday: the Herd go squirrel spotting.
PB Tories don’t know their arse from their elbow.
And neither do real Tories. Liz Truss on Twitter (not sure if the real one or a parody) is championing freedom of speech. I jest you not. The lack of self awareness is stunning.
Somebody's having a good year.
Because: what actually is wrong with a bit of willy waving and racism? How have we become so pitifully anxious that this unnerves us?
It’s a penis. It’s part of the human anatomy. Unless Jerry Sadowitz is forcing it down your throat, it is utterly harmless. Indeed a detumescent penis is a forlorn and unthreatening thing, like the buttock of a pensioner. Was someone really so scandalised by it they fainted and complained?
As for calling the chancellor a p*ki, that’s rude and probably racist BUT IT’S JUST A WORD. he’s a billionaire chancellor. He can probably cope. My god
More to the point, this is the Fringe. It’s meant to be fringey and edgy, but that’s all gone, so now it will become another sanitised woke-fest and comics will self censor and the grey illiberal lefties win again
It’s dreadful. The whole woke moralising shit is dreadful. We are censoring ourselves to cultural oblivion. We are like the prim victorians but without the empire, the confidence and the amazing engineering. We are just prim, and dull
"The Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in very high levels of public spending. Current estimates of the cost of Government measures announced so far range from about £310 to £410 billion"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9309/
You are now going to say: "but on top of Covid spending it's completely unaffordable".
I will say: windfall tax on energy producers, wealth tax, and yes inflation will come down significantly versus where it will go with an untrammelled price cap - that will provide a big offset.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-62505587
Pity that Labour, SNP etc are equally devoid of answers though.
If you have that policy objective then increasing dependency on Russian gas (and increasing Russian dependency on German money) is not foolish but a positive step making conflict less likely. Hence Norstrom 2.
I will just point out here I have been saying for months that it needs to be frozen.
Con voters in personal and family distress? Not our problem. Bury is dispensable.
So, when do Conservatives start caring?
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East?
Suffolk Coastal?
Havant?
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-content/2022/07/why-germany-cannot-escape-russia-cultural-allure
Russia sanctions will need to continue for years, barring a complete withdrawal and paying of massive reparations to Ukraine.
From a purely political angle, it fails to cap energy prices, but it has the government assume responsibility for their increase. Absolutely mental.
And, to paraphrase Blair, it's not exactly, "tough on high energy prices, tough on the causes of high energy prices," because it does nothing to address why energy prices are increasing.
Was Mary Whitehouse woke before her time?
However, you need to provide a citation. I doubt I ever said that