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Powerful from Beto O’Rourke – politicalbetting.com
Powerful from Beto O’Rourke – politicalbetting.com
Wow. After Beto O’Rourke brings up the Uvalde shooting, a man laughs loudly. Beto replies, “It may be funny to you motherfucker, but it’s not funny to me.” pic.twitter.com/Lb5mmGlKlE
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(So I backed him to be next Pres (370) - easily the better bet. And I backed him in a massive 2 pounds.)
I think I've followed Mike's wisdom far more than I realise.
1.12 Liz Truss 89%
9.4 Rishi Sunak 11%
Next Conservative leader
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.6 Rishi Sunak 10%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Teb-e7DkcT8 (Sun)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YT8vJBaYQiM (Independent)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smzDNa9LOSA (Guardian)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_BbN2PZjIU (Telegraph)
When people have to worry about choosing between heating or eating focussing your energies on persecuting trans people or changing the uni year means 1997 will look like a good year for the Tories in comparison to the 2024 general election.
I'm with OGH and taking a nibble at 140 on BF.
So I've bet some vague 10s of pounds on such a thing (i.e. token bets only)
I might get excommunicated by Adam, Chris, and James though.
Hate to say I told you so, but…
I did make the point when Aaron Bell turned on Boris, that he (and by extension, other red wall tories) were making a serious error of judgment.
My comments were met with universal derision on PB.
As I said then, either Boris stayed and he put his constituency at the bottom of the pork list - or Boris went, to be replaced by someone favouring the interests of the wealthy SE at the expense of the red wall.
I was right.
How exactly is it 'biodefense' to push the boundaries of disease deadliness in this way? Is it not more bioattack?
I'd describe the laugh coming at the point of Beto physically acting out the action of Viet Cong soldiers, in the context of that being what the AR15 was designed for and therefore the ridiculousness of the law permitting an 18 year old to purchase several of them and hundreds of rounds of ammunition to use it on children instead.
So whatever the motivation of the person laughing it was a very odd moment to chuckle about, since it wasn't simply about the killing of Viet Cong, but of the weapon used to kill children being intended for killing on the battlefield and what an outrage it being available was. The Viet Cong point is not divorced from the children point.
Perhaps to protect your identity you could use a pseudonym. There are plenty of Leon's redundant names available.
https://www.currentaffairs.org/2022/08/why-the-chair-of-the-lancets-covid-19-commission-thinks-the-us-government-is-preventing-a-real-investigation-into-the-pandemic
It came from the lab
Some of the details of the cover-up are mind boggling
‘The most interesting things that I got as chair of the Lancet commission came from Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuits and whistleblower leaks from inside the U.S. government. Isn’t that terrible? NIH was actually asked at one point: give us your research program on SARS-like viruses. And you know what they did? They released the cover page and redacted 290 pages. They gave us a cover page and 290 blank pages! That’s NIH, for heaven’s sake. That’s not some corporation. That is the U.S. government charged with keeping us healthy. ‘
Please don't ask me about my sources on this!
Tory MPs, and others, may have felt they had to turn on Boris on the point that he would no longer be an electoral asset, particularly in the Red Wall. That may well turn out to be wrong, and some such as you did suggest this.
Others, however, may well have felt that whether or not replacing Boris negatively impacted Tory prospects by appealing to the SE core over the Red Wall, it had to be done because his behavior, many scandals and several instances of at best inadvertently misleading parliament, meant he was not fit for office.
So I think playing the cassandra does not really work as it operates on a false premise of why 'everyone' may have felt it was the correct judgement, which did not all include it being an error for electoral purposes.
Though he is better than the last one. Seems to have managed to find a slightly lower register.
It's simply the case that theories still need to be debunked, and not all theories are equally silly.
Skeptics of established opinions do themselves no favours comparing themselves to batshit conspiracy theorists - right or wrong, the expression of doubts about the origins of Covid were not all equally batshit.
The same logic applied to lockdown skeptics, where there were potentially sound reasons to do with the economy and balancing of pressures, liberal politics etc, without going into Piers Corbyn territory.
I am not sure whether your stated position demeans you more from a moral or an intellectual point of view.
I don't agree with the laugh, but I think that's what it is.
I’d say there is a good case for capital trials followed by executions
20 million people are dead. They deserve justice. Are we really just going to shrug?
But the first thing he needs to win nationally is win over his own side.
Woke needs pushing back on and challenging for all our sakes. And I want no let up in that.
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1557804433165148160
I'm pretty sure I'll never view an execution for what someone thinks as sensible. I'm mostly against executions for what someone does too.
Likewise, Liz should drop her jokes about LibDems and planning committees.
Also, tonight's hustings are in Cheltenham, not "here in Derbyshire".
Anyone involved in the Furin Cleavage Shit should face the gallows. There needs to be severe deterrence so that mad selfish scientists think twice before doing it again
By this winter, Boris was really hated by a lot of the population. Bell's comment- was he a fool for sticking to the rules? hit home because it was true. Something had to be done about Boris.
The hilarity is that the Conservatives look set to miss out on the new broom effect by electing a replacement who stuck by Boris and seems set to keep the sycophants together.
But I feel like the overwhelming nature of the leads shown for Liz cannot all be wrong, plus Sunak has hardly covered himself in glory (He was even falling back on 'efficiency savings' as the saviour the other day), and hearing how Liz is easily going to win may well have prompted some waverers not to bother voting for Sunak.
But a huge 'shy Rishi' vote would be amusing, though I suspect from past contests the Tory Members do not like close contests.
Current energy bill handouts are £400 for everyone, an extra £650 for everyone on benefits, a further extra £150 for disability.
Truss could simply double all those figures in 5 minutes and it's entirely possible she will. Whilst at the same time doing all the other things she's promised on NI, green levies etc.
Why wouldn't she? She wants to win. Best chance of winning is to handout as much as possible.
Nobody can be sure what she will do. So unwise to make confident predictions.
I can’t believe people are prepared to shrug and accept “oh we don’t know where it came from, probably it came from the lab but does it matter now?”
I’ve heard people say exactly that. IT DOESN’T MATTER
It absolutely matters. For start we don’t want it to happen AGAIN
It's making a cultural point the centrepiece that is problematic from my perspective, because it overdoes it and leads to shoehorning it into everything (hence how the term can be overused).
Read the FOIAD emails.
In fact, start with the Sachs interview linked upthread. He’s the head of the Lancet Covid commission. Read that and see if you’re still shrugging
If you can go to one of his gigs and not come away a convert to NOLA R&B, I'll be astonished that you've proven yourself such a heathen
Unfortunately I missed an opportunity to promote his excellent live show to you earlier this week; he played upstairs at Ronnie Scott's on Monday night
He's playing there again on a Monday at the end of next month, and it only costs a tenner to get in
If you can't wait that long, or to anyone else who lives in South/East London, go check him out next Tuesday at The Temple Of Art And Music just by Elephant & Castle
The E&C gig is Dom's new NOLA Jam session. It'll cost about a tenner (probably less) to get in and you'll get about three hours of rich, sweet jam
Just to whet appetites, here's another video of him live at a bar in Nottingham
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akHxDeHp5yU
If anyone's interested in him or his gigs and on facebook, follow him here
https://www.facebook.com/domandtheikos
Which seems very effective amongst Members, who don't like a backstabber I guess but still want some change, but I'm not sure if the public will see it as new enough in the way that Boris was seen.
I was going to comment on the latest Swedish poll but I've now realised Bulgaria is voting AGAIN on October 2nd. This will be their fourth election in two years after three in 2021.
From what I gather, the coalition put together by Petkov after last November's election (which was ostensibly a defeat for Borisov's GERB) fell apart when Trifonov's ITN party left the Government on June 8th causing it to lose a confidence motion in the National Assembly two weeks later.
The latest polling has the combined We Continue The Change (PP) electoral alliance on 26.2% with GERB and their allies SDS on 22.6%, Movement of Rights and Freedoms on 12.4% and the Socialists on 11.6%. ITN look set to be wiped out with their support down to just 3.2% but Revival, an ultranationalist, anti-EU and anti-West party up to 8.9%.
I've got no idea either - maybe I should just stick with Sweden or Latvia.
I'm not in favour of subsidising the population. But maybe we should look at need, here? Cover 25% of this year's bills. Thereby incentivising jumpers and not having the heating on constantly.
I still don't understand how people manage to spend so much on gas.....
But we absolutely do not know for certain that the virus that caused the pandemic was engineered. It may have been, it may not. And any money from funding bodies would have been signed off by a committee.
Ever since 2020, the tories have been perpetuating a large part of the agenda.
But at the moment, the political focus needs to be on food, petrol, mortgages and energy prices.
What and who are you accusing of malfeasance?
They should have covered half (or whatever) of the increase above a set cost p/kWh, for a set period.
It would have pleased nobody (a p/kWh deduction doesn’t get the government much credit) but been fairer and led to far fewer anomalies (second/third homeowners, people on low, long term fixed contracts getting the bung etc etc)
There's a bit in Douglas Adams where someone proposes inventing the wheel and someone else says Oh yeah, well I do this for a living, I work in marketing, and I bet you haven't even the first idea what colour the wheel should be.
Seems to me that if YouGov is disproportionately weighted to Cameron/Osborne era Tories then that would surely be a pro-Rishi effect?
Personally I think wind farms are far superior to solar panels, and probably more important for UK security than food or solar too.
But what people want to do with their land should be up to them. Crops, meat, biodiversity, solar, turbines or new housing - the land owner should be responsible for deciding what they do with their own land, not Commissars, Bureaucrats or Curtain Twitchers.
So a bunch of scientists conspire to cover up the highly plausible explanation that this virus came from a lab where they were TRYING to make exactly this kind of virus EVEN MORE EVIL, hence all the millions of dead people
And you say “that’s not great”
Yes. That’s not great
I am very reluctantly going to vote for Truss
Having said that I am going to predict that this will actually be a damn sight closer than these membership polls suggest.
Considering the UK is a wintery island nation that needs peak energy demands when we put our heating on, how much use would a solar panel be on a north-facing roof, in December/January?
New buildings around here seem to be getting solar panels typically installed on South-facing roofs because its economic more than because of the environment now. If its economic then great, go for it, but if its not, its really not the best investment we can make either fiscally or environmentally.