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The Dems now favourites for the US Senate – politicalbetting.com
The Dems now favourites for the US Senate – politicalbetting.com
We are not long off now the US Midterm elections in November when the expectation is that the Democrats will lose control of the House but possibly improve their position in the Senate. At the moment this is split 50:50 with the Vice President having the casting vote.
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1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.6 Rishi Sunak 10%
Next Conservative leader
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
10 Rishi Sunak 10%
- note this post was edited to reflect it's position.
It'd be interesting to compare stats on whether general sports betting markets are better predictors of the future than political markets.
Firstly, to encourage growth in the economy. This is entirely plausible.
And secondly, and in tandem, to help with the CofL crisis. This is unarguably true. But it does nowt at all in the immediate term for those most in need of help.
So she's always answering a subtly different question to the one being asked.
The problem is some people seem to take it as a binary favourite wins = success, but if the 60% favourite won 10/10 times then the markets would be a very poor indicator not a reliable one.
That would match the pattern of the first term midterms of Trump and Obama in 2018 and 2010. Then the President's party lost the House but held the Senate
https://twitter.com/MNateShyamalan/status/1556795752726364165?t=e-4vi2P4kiDaaW1wGQFHCA&s=09
Same result as the other 8 million attempts at this by other companies.
Liz doesn't get it!
https://twitter.com/WJames_Reuters/status/1556932421148352512?s=20&t=vr3IgxdePEgmAEXvNcWAmw
Fired up the Repub base a treat. Even the moderates are miffed.
Whoever wins they will miss another bus - changing the cap is one of the tools needing to be used.
There are a lot of Micro businesses with single proprietors or family ownership for whom Corp tax is their biggest tax bill. Indeed, going Ltd was encouraged for lots of small traders by, inter alia, James Gordon Brown. Most will be set up to take c.12.5k as income and the remainder as dividends.
At present, the taxes on my assets are going to go up by around 25% next. It is another almightly tax grab on middle England.
I know lots of Tory members have a similar set up. Hundreds of thousands of voters will too.
In Europe prices also tend to cross-subsidise other projects, such as Energiewende or our Green Levies.
On a related note, I think it would probably be a good idea to decouple any cash grant from energy - ie. people don't have to use it to purchase energy. Otherwise it's a pure bung to energy companies. It will save energy, because those who prefer an extra jumper and to spend it on food etc., will be able to do so.
It is far from impossible that the Republicans gain one net seat from the Dems, but lose Utah.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1556996656079507456
FWIW, betting markets have tended to overstate the Dems chances in the US, mostly I suspect, because polls have tended to overstate the Dems support.
The question is, has this been fixed?
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/08/runoff-georgia-warnock-walker-00050170
At £50,001+
15.05% Employer NI
1.25% employer NI
40% income tax.
Here's a recent picture of their Sergeant Major.
So the framing - and initial media reporting - has largely been of the aggrieved man-child type.
With the legislature, federal court system and state courts all controlled by the GOP in and above GA, there's opportunity for epic shithousery.
I never quite got why a flat £400 was chosen?
It goes to everyone equally. Billionaires, second and third home owners. And single folk like me with a tiny energy efficient flat, which will cover the leccy entirely.
Surely a %age discount off everyone's bills would have been just as easy to administer? And encourage lower use?
Combined with a bung to the lowest paid?
Of course. As matt w notes. They could always change the cap as well.
Why not just say, run if you like matey, we're confident we will beat you again on the politics. Knock yourself out. Hell I double dare you. I'll even pay your hairspray bill.
That's the way to beat Trump, surely?
Pretty sure no posters would willingly return to a 1980s level of comfort, with no heating, mouldy ceilings and window frames, and a rickety death trap masquerading as a “deck”.
The US were umming and ahhing about ATACMS though...
Would that not put the Crimean bridge in range? If anyone were so inclined.
However, I also believe it'll be less bad than advertised, and I'm glad it's making us have a serious conversation on energy security, domestic oil and gas production, storage etc., which otherwise wouldn't have happened.
https://www.rct.uk/collection/2500206/colour-sergeant-william-mcgregor
I can only guess at what it would be in London, I think something like £6000.
But the point about the narrative is that Trump can tell whatever story he likes until such times as an indictment drops, but that changes if and when they indict, and when federal law enforcement brings the hammer down you generally don't want to be underneath it. At that point journalists download a very thorough case made in an authoritative-looking PDF, and however much the defendants may want to spin a different story their lawyers are telling them they need to STFU to avoid screwing up the defence.
I would bear down on the cap (even fix it at the current level, or with a small increase), which would have a beneficial side effect of clobbering retail inflation quite significantly. And being clear political communication.
Then offer supply-side support to keep companies above water where necessary. I'm quite tempted by a low interest rate (eg base rate or base + 1%) borrowing facility against assets to be paid back over 5 years.
I'm not sure if we can buck world prices without upsetting our international contract arrangements. Though a levy or further windfall tax is perhaps attractive.
The things confusing in the windfall tax is that media-idiots are failing to report existing measures such as higher taxes for the sector, and a windfall tax already having happened, and slinging mud at companies on the basis of worldwide profits.
And it goes without saying that insulation programmes etc should have been beefed up and driven harder 18 months ago, but Big Chief Sitting Bullshitter Boris sat on his butt.
I don't know quite where to go with this observation but I think it does have ramifications in how people view and describe how probable something is.
$2500 is my electricity bill, including aircon at full blast for a month or so.
My bedroom had no heat and faced north, my windows would be iced on the inside and my bed was warmed by a heated bulb in a cage called a 'glo baby' plus several teddies. Twin tub for washing day.
And that was standard fayre, we werent poor by any means. Nor well off. Just normal.
Anyone wanting that can have it.
I'd just left university in 1980. I had my first, very low-paid, job. I recall thinking I had plenty of money. Beer was cheap, food was fine, and I don't recall worrying about my rent (I lived in a comfortable 1-bed flat in Leeds). Many of my contemporaries ran a car. Not a life of luxury, which I wouldn't expect at that age, but certainly not a life of penury. I don't recall worrying about money much at all, nor having to make agonising decisions on spending.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1556995028521828354
I'd get your letting agent to have a look at the fine print of the agreement, to see if there is any kind of limit or similar. Potentially it could be a blank cheque on your account.
Anyway, my point is not that 1980 was somehow unliveable, but rather than living standards have improved a lot more than some posters want to credit.
I think it was actually Rishi's treasury that cracked down on insulation programmes etc. was it not? Obviously Boris could in theory have told Rishi to piss off.
Boris bets — sure things? (We've done the time value of money thing already.)
Boris 1.03 not to be leader at the next general election, which might not be settled till January 2005 and there is an outside chance he will have been re-elected by then. Or it might be settled this September. You can never be sure with Betfair.
Boris 1.02 not to be leader at the next party conference which is 2nd to 5th October.
Boris 1.01 to leave office in 2022.
Of course, rent, food, and education are all more expensive, the latter grossly more so.
One thing I've not quite got my head around - how do people have energy bills anywhere near the cap now?
Mine combined for the shop (with 3 employees) and my flat are about 1/3rd of the current cap.
Do people just leave the heating on all day and night?!
My dad built it; badly.
I think the roof post-dates us.
But you are talking as if the FBI/Attorney General and the Democratic party are one and the same thing; they are not.
Biden was very likely not told about the raid until it happened. It's not something the President gets to sign off on.
1) They get holiday pay, sick pay and the like, which we don't.
2) They're not risking their money creating jobs, bringing money into the economy (exports) and serving as tax collectors for the revenue (VAT).
https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/calms-the-last-photo-wins-tv-creativity-award/1794056?bulletin=campaign_creativity_bulletin&utm_medium=EMAIL&utm_campaign=eNews Bulletin&utm_source=20220809&utm_content=Campaign Creativity Fix (258)::www_campaignlive_co_uk_ar_7&email_hash=
"As I recall, living standards were pretty good in 1980" might well be an accurate recollection. But that wouldn't have been the experience of quite a large percentage of the population.
Apart from anything else, life expectancy was about 5 years less.
I think that only 10% of companies will be within the full 25% rate.
So not many micro businesses will be helped by Truss.
Cheapest tariffs are the ones where you have to pay by direct debit.
So you ring up say Scottish Power and they estimate your bill for the next 12 months at say £3,000.
They insist you spread the cost of the bill evenly over the year with a monthly DD of £250 per month.
But if I get a handle on the gas usage this winter (which means reduce it by two thirds), with Rishi's handouts and the £600 or so solar FIT payments I could end up making a profit. Current total summer bills are under £50 a month.
It's so all over the place that I can't call any of it beyond the end of the quarter.
Has anyone blamed it all on Brexit yet?
Lords cite 'frequent' policy changes, lack of metrics, post-Brexit funding as top issues
How's the UK doing in its ambitions to become a sci-tech "superpower" by 2030? According to a report by the Lords Science and Technology Committee, it's currently on track to make the phrase an "empty slogan."
The peers, headed by committee chair Julia King (Baroness Brown of Cambridge), an engineer with a PhD in fracture mechanics, said there were no "specific, measurable outcomes", no delivery plan, a short-termist outlook, and "frequent policy changes."
https://www.theregister.com/2022/08/09/scitech_superpower/
The House of Lords report, published last week, is at
https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/193/science-and-technology-committee-lords/news/172576/unfocused-uk-science-and-technology-strategy-risks-science-superpower-becoming-an-empty-slogan/
I mean these people alternate from telling us Joe Biden is dementia ridden or an evil genius.