YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
If and when support reaches 99% (Norway, 1905 levels) the least of your worries will be “the SNP”.
Legally however the future of the union would still remain with Westminster, even if practically it might be a bit more difficult
This whole discussion (and many more) was brought about by one catalyst.
It amazes me that quietly sleeping in the depths is the Hon. Chris Pincher, wherefrom the PM was fatally struck. No speculation of a by-election in his seat...
Well, if the Tories are going to have a byelection because of Man Nad, they might as well go for a clean sweep, dispose of all the soiled goods and have simultaneous byelections in Somerton & Frome, Windsor and all the rest. With so many winnable seats all up at once, the Lib Dems might feel a bit stretched.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
15% to call a VONC. If 20% nominate a challenger then there is automatically an election.
But I can't see it happening. Quite apart from the fact Labour didn't even get rid of Corbyn and have, among some pretty awful dross, not sacked a leader against the said leader's will since Lansbury in 1935, there's no obvious standout who would be better and no consensus in the party on a reason to change leader.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yup. A fair bit of whinging- which will have the effect of making life a bit easier for the Conservative Prime Minister. But beyond that? Doubtful. For starters, Andy Burnham isn't even an MP.
This whole discussion (and many more) was brought about by one catalyst.
It amazes me that quietly sleeping in the depths is the Hon. Chris Pincher, wherefrom the PM was fatally struck. No speculation of a by-election in his seat...
Well, if the Tories are going to have a byelection because of Man Nad, they might as well go for a clean sweep, dispose of all the soiled goods and have simultaneous byelections in Somerton & Frome, Windsor and all the rest. With so many winnable seats all up at once, the Lib Dems might feel a bit stretched.
Hmmm. Nad is in cabinet. “Stepping down”. Old enough to be anyones “mum”. Is she Mrs Finland? Can’t see what she’d have done that would be game changing for British politics mind.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
There is also the small matter of him actually falling behind. Maybe he will, as seems to be expected by most. But then there'll need to be an immediate emergency Budget. And folk will be getting their winter bills. Tories need to pray for a mild winter. 78-9 was one of the 5 coldest of the Century. A bad one (which we are overdue) could finish it before it gets started.
A few good replies to this. Anyone got any to add ?
https://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1556714547406204928 Read Kissinger's *Leadership* over the weekend. Despite generic title, found it surprisingly interesting -- personal reflections on 6 politicians. But main thing that struck me is that it's a very good book by a 99-year-old. Are there other examples from people aged, say, >95?
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
There is also the small matter of him actually falling behind. Maybe he will, as seems to be expected by most. But then there'll need to be an immediate emergency Budget. And folk will be getting their winter bills. Tories need to pray for a mild winter. 78-9 was one of the 5 coldest of the Century. A bad one (which we are overdue) could finish it before it gets started.
Positively, Germany’s gas reserves are now looking ok. Which means there will be less pressure on Norway to divert gas supplies to Europe and an easier LNG market.
I see Cabinet has taken up my suggestion from many many weeks ago that hospitals should be told to ensure working generators and stocks of diesel. A shame we don’t have a chancellor at the moment to sign off on the mass procurement of generators for schools.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
I would be quite happy if he were, but I think the only way is resignation, which Starmer might do in the interests of the party, but no indication of that being on the cards.
Labour is very poor at coups against leaders, and the barriers are very high. I just cannot see it this side of a GE.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
There is also the small matter of him actually falling behind. Maybe he will, as seems to be expected by most. But then there'll need to be an immediate emergency Budget. And folk will be getting their winter bills. Tories need to pray for a mild winter. 78-9 was one of the 5 coldest of the Century. A bad one (which we are overdue) could finish it before it gets started.
The Tories will need an effective framing narrative for the economic crisis, make it something done to us that they can solve. A Bullshit narrative, just like Browns 'it started in America' bullshit narrative. They need to be nurse so the electorate can cling to them. Not an easy lie to seed. Best start yesterday,
YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
If and when support reaches 99% (Norway, 1905 levels) the least of your worries will be “the SNP”.
Legally however the future of the union would still remain with Westminster, even if practically it might be a bit more difficult
"practically": so you admit the principle, that a majority for independence is sufficient?
HYUFD: do you know if members attending the final hustings in London on 31st August will be able to hand in their ballot papers after the event without relying on posting it? Because they have to be in by 2nd September I think, and you can't rely on the post to do it in that time.
YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
If and when support reaches 99% (Norway, 1905 levels) the least of your worries will be “the SNP”.
Legally however the future of the union would still remain with Westminster, even if practically it might be a bit more difficult
Practicality will be the least of your worries. Try morality.
This whole discussion (and many more) was brought about by one catalyst.
It amazes me that quietly sleeping in the depths is the Hon. Chris Pincher, wherefrom the PM was fatally struck. No speculation of a by-election in his seat...
Well, if the Tories are going to have a byelection because of Man Nad, they might as well go for a clean sweep, dispose of all the soiled goods and have simultaneous byelections in Somerton & Frome, Windsor and all the rest. With so many winnable seats all up at once, the Lib Dems might feel a bit stretched.
All very true and it could give the new PM an opportunity to set the agenda, at least in terms of clearing the decks!
This whole discussion (and many more) was brought about by one catalyst.
It amazes me that quietly sleeping in the depths is the Hon. Chris Pincher, wherefrom the PM was fatally struck. No speculation of a by-election in his seat...
Well, if the Tories are going to have a byelection because of Man Nad, they might as well go for a clean sweep, dispose of all the soiled goods and have simultaneous byelections in Somerton & Frome, Windsor and all the rest. With so many winnable seats all up at once, the Lib Dems might feel a bit stretched.
By election results Mid Beds Con Hold Somerton LD Gain Tamworth Con Hold Windsor, not happening, Afriye will 'find' the funds required. Poss LD gain if fought, very close though Uxbridge toss up
YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
If and when support reaches 99% (Norway, 1905 levels) the least of your worries will be “the SNP”.
Legally however the future of the union would still remain with Westminster, even if practically it might be a bit more difficult
"practically": so you admit the principle, that a majority for independence is sufficient?
Astonishing about-turn.
No, I was talking practically in terms of ensuring law enforcement maintain Westminster's sovereignty over Scotland in the reserved areas.
Obviously I still oppose indyref2 for a generation
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
There is also the small matter of him actually falling behind. Maybe he will, as seems to be expected by most. But then there'll need to be an immediate emergency Budget. And folk will be getting their winter bills. Tories need to pray for a mild winter. 78-9 was one of the 5 coldest of the Century. A bad one (which we are overdue) could finish it before it gets started.
The Tories will need an effective framing narrative for the economic crisis, make it something done to us that they can solve. A Bullshit narrative, just like Browns 'it started in America' bullshit narrative. They need to be nurse so the electorate can cling to them. Not an easy lie to seed. Best start yesterday,
No it won't. Key bit there is "they can solve". One more shock and it's finished. It may be already. Sure Starmer is crap. But it's looking rather like who should start up front for Everton on Saturday? Anthony Gordon? No way is he a lone striker! Little experience, and not suited to the role in the slightest. Alex Iwobi? Delle Alli? Gordon it is then.
HYUFD: do you know if members attending the final hustings in London on 31st August will be able to hand in their ballot papers after the event without relying on posting it? Because they have to be in by 2nd September I think, and you can't rely on the post to do it in that time.
Although as with PVs late in a GE, I would expect sorting offices to be under instructions to fish them out of the mail stream and get them sorted and despatched as priority, with the receiving MC doing the same on the inward frames and straight onto a dedicated van run. So the odds would be higher than for a bog standard letter in the system.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
HYUFD: do you know if members attending the final hustings in London on 31st August will be able to hand in their ballot papers after the event without relying on posting it? Because they have to be in by 2nd September I think, and you can't rely on the post to do it in that time.
I don't think so, they have to be posted or you vote online. I have already voted anyway, even though I am not going to the hustings until Thursday in Cheltenham
So who would do better with polling evidence please
Its not that he is crap, its that he seems uninspiring. The swings at by elections have been tepid, wakefield wasnt impressive given the circumstances, nothing like the LD swings. Similarly in local by elections its all very tepid from a labour perspective, theres no 'oomph' behind him. People are reluctant to conclude Labour are ready for government. They are getting there, yes, but its torturous progress. The electorate want someone/something to believe in. I don't get the sense many can be arsed to believe in SKS,
I was chatting to a left-leaning political friend at the weekend and he was saying the usual 'Keir is aiming for the competent bank manager' image. And I had to admit that when I thought of Keir literally *nothing* comes to mind. Not 'bank manager', not 'competent', not even 'boring'. Just... nothing.
Yes i'd agree. A void. So, i guess avoid.
No, he was brilliantly summarised in that essay I linked to, a few days ago
"I hate him aesthetically. I hate his fussy little too-perfect just-shy-of-Nazi-officer haircut; hate his “Prime Minister from central casting” face, which initially seemed designed by committee, but increasingly suffers from having an expression slapped on it like he's desperately trying to explain away his role in a sex scandal at the dog pound he runs; hate his pedantic voice, which makes everything he says sound like an HR meeting you don't really need to be at."
So who would do better with polling evidence please
Its not that he is crap, its that he seems uninspiring. The swings at by elections have been tepid, wakefield wasnt impressive given the circumstances, nothing like the LD swings. Similarly in local by elections its all very tepid from a labour perspective, theres no 'oomph' behind him. People are reluctant to conclude Labour are ready for government. They are getting there, yes, but its torturous progress. The electorate want someone/something to believe in. I don't get the sense many can be arsed to believe in SKS,
I was chatting to a left-leaning political friend at the weekend and he was saying the usual 'Keir is aiming for the competent bank manager' image. And I had to admit that when I thought of Keir literally *nothing* comes to mind. Not 'bank manager', not 'competent', not even 'boring'. Just... nothing.
Yes i'd agree. A void. So, i guess avoid.
No, he was brilliantly summarised in that essay I linked to, a few days ago
"I hate him aesthetically. I hate his fussy little too-perfect just-shy-of-Nazi-officer haircut; hate his “Prime Minister from central casting” face, which initially seemed designed by committee, but increasingly suffers from having an expression slapped on it like he's desperately trying to explain away his role in a sex scandal at the dog pound he runs; hate his pedantic voice, which makes everything he says sound like an HR meeting you don't really need to be at."
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
So a succession of PMs whose only big plus is that they aren’t the person who just went before….
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
So a succession of PMs whose only big plus is that they aren’t the person who just went before….
I didn't say it was the only big plus, it is a big plus and more may follow - time will tell
So who would do better with polling evidence please
Its not that he is crap, its that he seems uninspiring. The swings at by elections have been tepid, wakefield wasnt impressive given the circumstances, nothing like the LD swings. Similarly in local by elections its all very tepid from a labour perspective, theres no 'oomph' behind him. People are reluctant to conclude Labour are ready for government. They are getting there, yes, but its torturous progress. The electorate want someone/something to believe in. I don't get the sense many can be arsed to believe in SKS,
I was chatting to a left-leaning political friend at the weekend and he was saying the usual 'Keir is aiming for the competent bank manager' image. And I had to admit that when I thought of Keir literally *nothing* comes to mind. Not 'bank manager', not 'competent', not even 'boring'. Just... nothing.
Yes i'd agree. A void. So, i guess avoid.
No, he was brilliantly summarised in that essay I linked to, a few days ago
"I hate him aesthetically. I hate his fussy little too-perfect just-shy-of-Nazi-officer haircut; hate his “Prime Minister from central casting” face, which initially seemed designed by committee, but increasingly suffers from having an expression slapped on it like he's desperately trying to explain away his role in a sex scandal at the dog pound he runs; hate his pedantic voice, which makes everything he says sound like an HR meeting you don't really need to be at."
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
So a succession of PMs whose only big plus is that they aren’t the person who just went before….
I didn't say it was the only big plus, it is a big plus and more may follow - time will tell
Explain how “The one big plus” is different from “only big plus”?
YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
If and when support reaches 99% (Norway, 1905 levels) the least of your worries will be “the SNP”.
Legally however the future of the union would still remain with Westminster, even if practically it might be a bit more difficult
"practically": so you admit the principle, that a majority for independence is sufficient?
Astonishing about-turn.
No, I was talking practically in terms of ensuring law enforcement maintain Westminster's sovereignty over Scotland in the reserved areas.
Obviously I still oppose indyref2 for a generation
So who would do better with polling evidence please
Its not that he is crap, its that he seems uninspiring. The swings at by elections have been tepid, wakefield wasnt impressive given the circumstances, nothing like the LD swings. Similarly in local by elections its all very tepid from a labour perspective, theres no 'oomph' behind him. People are reluctant to conclude Labour are ready for government. They are getting there, yes, but its torturous progress. The electorate want someone/something to believe in. I don't get the sense many can be arsed to believe in SKS,
I was chatting to a left-leaning political friend at the weekend and he was saying the usual 'Keir is aiming for the competent bank manager' image. And I had to admit that when I thought of Keir literally *nothing* comes to mind. Not 'bank manager', not 'competent', not even 'boring'. Just... nothing.
Yes i'd agree. A void. So, i guess avoid.
No, he was brilliantly summarised in that essay I linked to, a few days ago
"I hate him aesthetically. I hate his fussy little too-perfect just-shy-of-Nazi-officer haircut; hate his “Prime Minister from central casting” face, which initially seemed designed by committee, but increasingly suffers from having an expression slapped on it like he's desperately trying to explain away his role in a sex scandal at the dog pound he runs; hate his pedantic voice, which makes everything he says sound like an HR meeting you don't really need to be at."
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
It feels pertinent that she has been in Cabinet (or a rung below) a relatively long time across portfolios and the worst anyone can say is she once gave an awkward speech about cheese and pork and she signed a trade deal that will lead to cheaper (Australian) food on British shelves.
May was described as the submarine because she never attracted attention either but my memory of her as Home Sec was as an incompetent and bitter wench who made life impossible for my (non eu) sister in law when she tried to move to this country. Her and millions of Indians too of course. Passport office was shit back then too.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
LAB doesn't need a majority at the next election for Starmer to become PM - the Tories do to remain in power
It's politics as showbiz. It's hard to see Starmer competing against Fizzy with an electorate that finds "I'm a celebrity..." intellectually challenging.
That is, unfortunately, the A and Ω of the situation. A populace that could just as well have had full frontal lobotomies.
When Liz Truss first seriously featured as a name, I was impressed. Big time. I went through a dip, but I’m coming back round to my initial assessment: I think she’s going to be a cracker for the Tories. Yes, the economic background is absolutely dire, but I’m pretty sure she can lay most of the blame for that on Brown, Cameron, Clegg, May and The Oaf. It is merely a marketing problem. Not insurmountable. The poor will freeze and starve - quite literally - but PM Truss will be alright Jack.
My opinion of Starmer on the other hand has gone in only one direction. Straight down. I was a huge fan and very optimistic when he was first elected. England needs a decent leader. But what a disappointment. A total dud.
Slightly surprised to see you use 'England' for 'the United Kingdom.'
I aim to stimulate and challenge my readership with a broad variety of techniques. I’m pleased to surprise and delight you.
The “PM” is, de facto, the FM of England. All nations need a leader. Even the English. Quite what they did to deserve Brown, Cameron, May, The Oaf and Truss is a moot question.
There is no such role, one of the weaknesses of the devolution set up by Blair.
De jure there is no such role.
De facto there is such a role.
Not really - when does the First Minister of England decide things only for England? Or deliver a speech to the English parliament?
I've missed whether anyone has made these obvious points while I've been away.
Pop music has definitely, overall, got worse since its peak in the 60s/70s/80s/90s/00s, depending on your POV
There is a lot more shit music being made now than ever before
But there's also more good music being made, even if it has become harder to make the "iconic" music that we seem to have loads of from the past
And it's now happening all over the world. I don't know if anyone listened to my recommendation from yesterday - Monsieur Periné - a Columbian band who have in one day become my favourite foreign language band of all time. They do songs in Spanish and French
I urge you all to put this on right now and turn it right up
If you know a better band not singing in English please do let me know
Some of the best pop music is definitely non-English speaking. A PB-er once linked to a brilliant Lebanese jazz-metal band (IIRC) and it was great - frustratingly I forget the name
Also check The Hu from Mongolia, in one of the most brilliantly ridiculous videos ever made. Heavy metal nose flutes!
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
The SCons being second in a sub sample has evidently loosened your grip on the English language.
At least one Tory isn’t ruling out the possibility of an indyref2.
Hmm. Labour not volunteering to be the tulchan coo* this time round?
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
She used to be a Lib Dem Republican, which is not the usual background for someone who is very right wing.
I suspect the Erg support for her campaign was canny politicking on her part. It doesn’t make her reliant on them I don’t think, if anything it allows her room to pivot back to the centre to build a broader church. Not long to wait and see anyway.
HYUFD: do you know if members attending the final hustings in London on 31st August will be able to hand in their ballot papers after the event without relying on posting it? Because they have to be in by 2nd September I think, and you can't rely on the post to do it in that time.
I don't think so, they have to be posted or you vote online. I have already voted anyway, even though I am not going to the hustings until Thursday in Cheltenham
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
I've missed whether anyone has made these obvious points while I've been away.
Pop music has definitely, overall, got worse since its peak in the 60s/70s/80s/90s/00s, depending on your POV
There is a lot more shit music being made now than ever before
But there's also more good music being made, even if it has become harder to make the "iconic" music that we seem to have loads of from the past
And it's now happening all over the world. I don't know if anyone listened to my recommendation from yesterday - Monsieur Periné - a Columbian band who have in one day become my favourite foreign language band of all time. They do songs in Spanish and French
I urge you all to put this on right now and turn it right up
If you know a better band not singing in English please do let me know
Some of the best pop music is definitely non-English speaking. A PB-er once linked to a brilliant Lebanese jazz-metal band (IIRC) and it was great - frustratingly I forget the name
Also check The Hu from Mongolia, in one of the most brilliantly ridiculous videos ever made. Heavy metal nose flutes!
I've missed whether anyone has made these obvious points while I've been away.
Pop music has definitely, overall, got worse since its peak in the 60s/70s/80s/90s/00s, depending on your POV
There is a lot more shit music being made now than ever before
But there's also more good music being made, even if it has become harder to make the "iconic" music that we seem to have loads of from the past
And it's now happening all over the world. I don't know if anyone listened to my recommendation from yesterday - Monsieur Periné - a Columbian band who have in one day become my favourite foreign language band of all time. They do songs in Spanish and French
I urge you all to put this on right now and turn it right up
If you know a better band not singing in English please do let me know
Very good, thanks for posting. The taste quality on PB is astonishingly poor, especially from some of the most notable posters. You are a brilliant exception.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
She used to be a Lib Dem Republican, which is not the usual background for someone who is very right wing.
I suspect the Erg support for her campaign was canny politicking on her part. It doesn’t make her reliant on them I don’t think, if anything it allows her room to pivot back to the centre to build a broader church. Not long to wait and see anyway.
She got even fewer MPs backing her in the final round percentage wise than IDS and most of them ERG.
The ERG made her, if she abandons them the ERG can also break her
YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
If and when support reaches 99% (Norway, 1905 levels) the least of your worries will be “the SNP”.
Legally however the future of the union would still remain with Westminster, even if practically it might be a bit more difficult
Practicality will be the least of your worries. Try morality.
He hasn’t tried morality yet, despite professing to be a Christian.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
She used to be a Lib Dem Republican, which is not the usual background for someone who is very right wing.
I suspect the Erg support for her campaign was canny politicking on her part. It doesn’t make her reliant on them I don’t think, if anything it allows her room to pivot back to the centre to build a broader church. Not long to wait and see anyway.
She got even fewer MPs backing her in the final round percentage wise than IDS and most of them ERG.
The ERG made her, if she abandons them the ERG can also break her
My God - how hard was it to break the man most patently unfit for office since Caligula?
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
She used to be a Lib Dem Republican, which is not the usual background for someone who is very right wing.
I suspect the Erg support for her campaign was canny politicking on her part. It doesn’t make her reliant on them I don’t think, if anything it allows her room to pivot back to the centre to build a broader church. Not long to wait and see anyway.
I think this is spot on.
I also think she will do a better job of "talking softly but carrying a big stick" with the EU. In other words, she'll be more outwardly friendly than Johnson, but she'll probably be more resolute.
Moderates will be happy with the softer tone. Hard liners will hopefully be happy with the progress.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
It will be interesting to see if she changes once she has to impress the electorate instead of just the Tory membership.
YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
If and when support reaches 99% (Norway, 1905 levels) the least of your worries will be “the SNP”.
Legally however the future of the union would still remain with Westminster, even if practically it might be a bit more difficult
Practicality will be the least of your worries. Try morality.
He hasn’t tried morality yet, despite professing to be a Christian.
He has already displayed his profound immortality for all to see: he’s a huge Franco fan and advocates the armed suppression and imprisonment of political opponents.
HYUFD: do you know if members attending the final hustings in London on 31st August will be able to hand in their ballot papers after the event without relying on posting it? Because they have to be in by 2nd September I think, and you can't rely on the post to do it in that time.
I don't think so, they have to be posted or you vote online. I have already voted anyway, even though I am not going to the hustings until Thursday in Cheltenham
HYUFD: do you know if members attending the final hustings in London on 31st August will be able to hand in their ballot papers after the event without relying on posting it? Because they have to be in by 2nd September I think, and you can't rely on the post to do it in that time.
I don't think so, they have to be posted or you vote online. I have already voted anyway, even though I am not going to the hustings until Thursday in Cheltenham
Do you have your killer question ready to ask?
Even if I did I doubt it would make much difference, most members now will already have voted
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
Policy wise she is Johnson, except even more reliant on the ERG and even more rightwing
She used to be a Lib Dem Republican, which is not the usual background for someone who is very right wing.
I suspect the Erg support for her campaign was canny politicking on her part. It doesn’t make her reliant on them I don’t think, if anything it allows her room to pivot back to the centre to build a broader church. Not long to wait and see anyway.
I think this is spot on.
I also think she will do a better job of "talking softly but carrying a big stick" with the EU. In other words, she'll be more outwardly friendly than Johnson, but she'll probably be more resolute.
Moderates will be happy with the softer tone. Hard liners will hopefully be happy with the progress.
Of course, I realise that some hard liners will not be happy with anything short of an actual war with Germany and France, so I may be excessively optimistic.
YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
If and when support reaches 99% (Norway, 1905 levels) the least of your worries will be “the SNP”.
Legally however the future of the union would still remain with Westminster, even if practically it might be a bit more difficult
Practicality will be the least of your worries. Try morality.
He hasn’t tried morality yet, despite professing to be a Christian.
He has already displayed his profound immortality for all to see: he’s a huge Franco fan and advocates the armed suppression and imprisonment of political opponents.
No, I advocate respect for the British state and its reserved power over the union not allowing the SNP to dictate the agenda so they keep holding indyrefs until they get the result they want
HYUFD: do you know if members attending the final hustings in London on 31st August will be able to hand in their ballot papers after the event without relying on posting it? Because they have to be in by 2nd September I think, and you can't rely on the post to do it in that time.
I don't think so, they have to be posted or you vote online. I have already voted anyway, even though I am not going to the hustings until Thursday in Cheltenham
aiui you can always change your vote if the facts change as Keynes is wrongly reputed to have said (it was Paul A Samuelson).
HYUFD: do you know if members attending the final hustings in London on 31st August will be able to hand in their ballot papers after the event without relying on posting it? Because they have to be in by 2nd September I think, and you can't rely on the post to do it in that time.
I don't think so, they have to be posted or you vote online. I have already voted anyway, even though I am not going to the hustings until Thursday in Cheltenham
Do you have your killer question ready to ask?
Even if I did I doubt it would make much difference, most members now will already have voted
I’m disappointed! That’s a defeatist attitude; not like your normal ebullience.
YouGov, the only pollster to correctly weigh geographical sub-samples, also show that Keir Starmer is a dud. Back down to 3rd place in Scotland = no cigars.
London Lab 42% Con 28% LD 15% Grn 10% Ref 2%
Rest of South Con 41% Lab 32% LD 14% Grn 8% Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales Lab 40% Con 34% LD 9% PC 6% Grn 6% Ref 4%
North Lab 47% Con 29% Grn 9% LD 8% Ref 5%
Scotland SNP 51% Con 22% Lab 16% LD 5% Grn 4% Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55% Unionist parties 44%
It doesn't matter if the SNP are on 99%, Truss has made clear she will not allow any indyref2 on her watch. As the future of the union is reserved to Westminster and the UK government under the Scotland Act 1998 nothing the SNP can do about it.
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
If and when support reaches 99% (Norway, 1905 levels) the least of your worries will be “the SNP”.
Legally however the future of the union would still remain with Westminster, even if practically it might be a bit more difficult
Practicality will be the least of your worries. Try morality.
He hasn’t tried morality yet, despite professing to be a Christian.
He has already displayed his profound immortality for all to see: he’s a huge Franco fan and advocates the armed suppression and imprisonment of political opponents.
No, I advocate respect for the British state and its reserved power over the union not allowing the SNP to dictate the agenda so they keep holding indyrefs until they get the result they want
It’s the Scottish electorate dictating the agenda, as it must always be. Don’t shoot the messenger.
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
It will be interesting to see if she changes once she has to impress the electorate instead of just the Tory membership.
The next 6 - 8 weeks will be very interesting as will the party conferences
Economically I prefer Sunak but Truss looks odds on and while the abolition of the NI rise only helps those earning over £34,000 holding down corporation tax and the abolition of NI is a sensible policy to generate investment and jobs
Apparently she is to have an emergency budget in September so this will define her especially as she addresses those worst hit by the col crisis
The ERG are a diminishing force in the conservative party and Truss will not need to fear them
I've missed whether anyone has made these obvious points while I've been away.
Pop music has definitely, overall, got worse since its peak in the 60s/70s/80s/90s/00s, depending on your POV
There is a lot more shit music being made now than ever before
But there's also more good music being made, even if it has become harder to make the "iconic" music that we seem to have loads of from the past
And it's now happening all over the world. I don't know if anyone listened to my recommendation from yesterday - Monsieur Periné - a Columbian band who have in one day become my favourite foreign language band of all time. They do songs in Spanish and French
I urge you all to put this on right now and turn it right up
If you know a better band not singing in English please do let me know
Some of the best pop music is definitely non-English speaking. A PB-er once linked to a brilliant Lebanese jazz-metal band (IIRC) and it was great - frustratingly I forget the name
Also check The Hu from Mongolia, in one of the most brilliantly ridiculous videos ever made. Heavy metal nose flutes!
I wonder if Keir Starmer might be replaced as leader before the next election if he goes behind in the polls.
Was Cameron replaced when he went behind Brown in the polls in 2007 or Kinnock replaced when he went behind Major in the polls in 1990? No. Plus you need 20% of Labour MPs to back a challenger, more even than the 15% of Tory MPs needed for a VONC
Yes you’re right. Starmerama won’t be be replaced until he does his Ed Miliband tribute act in 2024.
Except Truss is more Theresa May, Hillary Clinton, Julia Gillard, Segolene Royale or Kim Campbell than David Cameron I fear
Liz Truss is Liz Truss
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
It will be interesting to see if she changes once she has to impress the electorate instead of just the Tory membership.
I've missed whether anyone has made these obvious points while I've been away.
Pop music has definitely, overall, got worse since its peak in the 60s/70s/80s/90s/00s, depending on your POV
There is a lot more shit music being made now than ever before
But there's also more good music being made, even if it has become harder to make the "iconic" music that we seem to have loads of from the past
And it's now happening all over the world. I don't know if anyone listened to my recommendation from yesterday - Monsieur Periné - a Columbian band who have in one day become my favourite foreign language band of all time. They do songs in Spanish and French
I urge you all to put this on right now and turn it right up
If you know a better band not singing in English please do let me know
Some of the best pop music is definitely non-English speaking. A PB-er once linked to a brilliant Lebanese jazz-metal band (IIRC) and it was great - frustratingly I forget the name
Also check The Hu from Mongolia, in one of the most brilliantly ridiculous videos ever made. Heavy metal nose flutes!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6Mx2mxpaCY <- a reference to English private boarding schools, or to the "Napoli" schools in 1930s Germany that they served as a model for?
Does Black Sabbath playing Paranoid (1970) at the closing CG ceremony prove the hypothesis of those who've argued that there's been no decent music for the last 50 years? Or is it just that the organisers couldn't find anything better that's come out of the Birmingham music scene? (UB40 would have been a bit more recent, though). I suspect the latter.
Does Black Sabbath playing Paranoid (1970) at the closing CG ceremony prove the hypothesis of those who've argued that there's been no decent music for the last 50 years? Or is it just that the organisers couldn't find anything better that's come out of the Birmingham music scene? (UB40 would have been a bit more recent, though). I suspect the latter.
So bit of a brain dump of life - I had a bunch of scans recently and it turns out I have got (recoverable) damaged heart muscle. The doctor has theorised it is either because of my recent bout with COVID or more likely the side effect from the COVID vaccine plus my existing heart condition. For the next 4-6 months I'm giving up booze and I'm on a specific diet plus a gentle exercise regime to reverse the damage.
I'm also advised to minimise stress which is a bit tough in my line of work so I'm generally having a rethink around where my life is heading.
One of the reasons I've not posted on here very much or been getting into small internet arguments is to avoid stress so my participation will consist of F1, football from time to time and odd bits and pieces.
I'm very lucky to have such a supportive wife and such a chill baby, I've got this week off work to adjust to the news and potentially longer depending on what the final consultation with the doctor turns out like in a few days.
Also very, very lucky to have got an A&E doctor last month who gave a shit and spent a lot of time explaining the seriousness of the ECG trace and making positive lifestyle changes immediately. My private healthcare has been a genuine life saver here too, appointments, scans and consultants on demand. I can't imagine doing this via the NHS when realistically I'm not dying tomorrow or even 20 years from now because of this.
Does Black Sabbath playing Paranoid (1970) at the closing CG ceremony prove the hypothesis of those who've argued that there's been no decent music for the last 50 years? Or is it just that the organisers couldn't find anything better that's come out of the Birmingham music scene? (UB40 would have been a bit more recent, though). I suspect the latter.
You didn't watch the whole show then?
UB40 were on earlier. Dexy's Midnight Runners. The Selector !
Does Black Sabbath playing Paranoid (1970) at the closing CG ceremony prove the hypothesis of those who've argued that there's been no decent music for the last 50 years? Or is it just that the organisers couldn't find anything better that's come out of the Birmingham music scene? (UB40 would have been a bit more recent, though). I suspect the latter.
Ocean Colour Scene werent available Edit - now i look like im just copying Rottenboroughs joke but im not! Its not fair damn it
Does Black Sabbath playing Paranoid (1970) at the closing CG ceremony prove the hypothesis of those who've argued that there's been no decent music for the last 50 years? Or is it just that the organisers couldn't find anything better that's come out of the Birmingham music scene? (UB40 would have been a bit more recent, though). I suspect the latter.
Is Biden turning the tide on his so-far deeply unpopular presidency?
Inflation Act is a massive win.
Aptly named
Democrats have argued the measure will tackle voters' main economic concern, naming it the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans argue the new spending will aggravate inflation. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says, though, the bill has a "negligible" effect on inflation in 2022 and into 2023.
Comments
But I can't see it happening. Quite apart from the fact Labour didn't even get rid of Corbyn and have, among some pretty awful dross, not sacked a leader against the said leader's will since Lansbury in 1935, there's no obvious standout who would be better and no consensus in the party on a reason to change leader.
I’d be interested in @rcs1000 ’s take.
Maybe he will, as seems to be expected by most. But then there'll need to be an immediate emergency Budget. And folk will be getting their winter bills.
Tories need to pray for a mild winter.
78-9 was one of the 5 coldest of the Century.
A bad one (which we are overdue) could finish it before it gets started.
Anyone got any to add ?
https://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1556714547406204928
Read Kissinger's *Leadership* over the weekend. Despite generic title, found it surprisingly interesting -- personal reflections on 6 politicians. But main thing that struck me is that it's a very good book by a 99-year-old. Are there other examples from people aged, say, >95?
sign your name is fantastic, but doesn't sound much like St Paul to me
I see Cabinet has taken up my suggestion from many many weeks ago that hospitals should be told to ensure working generators and stocks of diesel. A shame we don’t have a chancellor at the moment to sign off on the mass procurement of generators for schools.
Labour is very poor at coups against leaders, and the barriers are very high. I just cannot see it this side of a GE.
They need to be nurse so the electorate can cling to them.
Not an easy lie to seed. Best start yesterday,
Not just me getting old then.
Astonishing about-turn.
Mid Beds Con Hold
Somerton LD Gain
Tamworth Con Hold
Windsor, not happening, Afriye will 'find' the funds required. Poss LD gain if fought, very close though
Uxbridge toss up
Obviously I still oppose indyref2 for a generation
Sure Starmer is crap. But it's looking rather like who should start up front for Everton on Saturday?
Anthony Gordon? No way is he a lone striker! Little experience, and not suited to the role in the slightest.
Alex Iwobi? Delle Alli?
Gordon it is then.
"He is aesthetically petty and dull, a piece of hotel art made man."
I do not understand these comparisons you seem so fond of
I have to say I have no idea how she will evolve and some say she may surprise on the upside
The one big plus she is not Johnson
May was described as the submarine because she never attracted attention either but my memory of her as Home Sec was as an incompetent and bitter wench who made life impossible for my (non eu) sister in law when she tried to move to this country. Her and millions of Indians too of course. Passport office was shit back then too.
Are you a bit thick or something?
What he does with that harmonica is unbelievable. He can come round and **** ** **** *** *********** *** ** *********** *******!
O Liberté , Liberté ! que de crimes sont commis en ton nom !
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-62472100
Edit: posted earlier, I see. Apols
Her cabinet will be inclusive
I suspect the Erg support for her campaign was canny politicking on her part. It doesn’t make her reliant on them I don’t think, if anything it allows her room to pivot back to the centre to build a broader church. Not long to wait and see anyway.
Transferable skills are often underrated.
Very good, thanks for posting.
The taste quality on PB is astonishingly poor, especially from some of the most notable posters. You are a brilliant exception.
The ERG made her, if she abandons them the ERG can also break her
RIP.
They were still performing too.
Just enjoying Summer Nights…
Otherwise, the show goes on. Only worse.
Her Cabinet will make his look like a set of political titans for the ages.
I also think she will do a better job of "talking softly but carrying a big stick" with the EU. In other words, she'll be more outwardly friendly than Johnson, but she'll probably be more resolute.
Moderates will be happy with the softer tone. Hard liners will hopefully be happy with the progress.
Economically I prefer Sunak but Truss looks odds on and while the abolition of the NI rise only helps those earning over £34,000 holding down corporation tax and the abolition of NI is a sensible policy to generate investment and jobs
Apparently she is to have an emergency budget in September so this will define her especially as she addresses those worst hit by the col crisis
The ERG are a diminishing force in the conservative party and Truss will not need to fear them
Inflation Act is a massive win.
Made me think of Lee Brilleaux of Dr Feelgood:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vV0yYcN9QnE
The Hu - you can keep them. I'm not into incorporating traditional folk instruments into rock music.
Laibach from Slovenia do the kitsch heavy thing MUCH better:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjDXmv8hURw <- British national anthem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WjIOP7M2DrY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6Mx2mxpaCY <- a reference to English private boarding schools, or to the "Napoli" schools in 1930s Germany that they served as a model for?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oD0W6SSBUA
Or is it just that the organisers couldn't find anything better that's come out of the Birmingham music scene? (UB40 would have been a bit more recent, though).
I suspect the latter.
The Move were unavailable.
I'm also advised to minimise stress which is a bit tough in my line of work so I'm generally having a rethink around where my life is heading.
One of the reasons I've not posted on here very much or been getting into small internet arguments is to avoid stress so my participation will consist of F1, football from time to time and odd bits and pieces.
I'm very lucky to have such a supportive wife and such a chill baby, I've got this week off work to adjust to the news and potentially longer depending on what the final consultation with the doctor turns out like in a few days.
Also very, very lucky to have got an A&E doctor last month who gave a shit and spent a lot of time explaining the seriousness of the ECG trace and making positive lifestyle changes immediately. My private healthcare has been a genuine life saver here too, appointments, scans and consultants on demand. I can't imagine doing this via the NHS when realistically I'm not dying tomorrow or even 20 years from now because of this.
UB40 were on earlier. Dexy's Midnight Runners. The Selector !
And some current acts.
Edit - now i look like im just copying Rottenboroughs joke but im not! Its not fair damn it
Democrats have argued the measure will tackle voters' main economic concern, naming it the Inflation Reduction Act. Republicans argue the new spending will aggravate inflation. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office says, though, the bill has a "negligible" effect on inflation in 2022 and into 2023.