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Truss beating Starmer as “Better PM” – politicalbetting.com
Truss beating Starmer as “Better PM” – politicalbetting.com
At this moment, which of the following individuals do voters think would be the better Prime Minister for the United Kingdom?Starmer vs Truss:Truss 38% (+1)Starmer 35% (–)Starmer vs Sunak:Starmer 40% (+1)Sunak 34% (+2)Changes +/- 4 Augusthttps://t.co/r0DzGHMZYe pic.twitter.com/kr0UED0goE
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I still can’t decide which but if pushed I’d lean to the latter, based on her being far more likeable when put under the media glare of the leadership election than presumed. But then there’s the Bank of Japan comment in Debate 1. Hmmm…
London
Lab 42%
Con 28%
LD 15%
Grn 10%
Ref 2%
Rest of South
Con 41%
Lab 32%
LD 14%
Grn 8%
Ref 3%
Midlands and Wales
Lab 40%
Con 34%
LD 9%
PC 6%
Grn 6%
Ref 4%
North
Lab 47%
Con 29%
Grn 9%
LD 8%
Ref 5%
Scotland
SNP 51%
Con 22%
Lab 16%
LD 5%
Grn 4%
Ref 1%
(YouGov / The Times; Sample Size: 1,968; Fieldwork: 4th - 5th August 2022)
Pro-independence parties 55%
Unionist parties 44%
None of this is hard to explain and OGH has explained it so we can ignore the anti-Starmer jibes from the usual suspects.
Truss will be "new" - how "different" she will be I don't know. The roll back of the NI hike will have plenty of fans but where the money will be found to make up the shortfall I don't know and I suspect many Council finance officers will be dreading the 2022-23 financial settlement (Gove's settlement from this year will doubtless be ripped up in the name of national expediency).
Starmer does have to improve, no doubt, though the progress from December 2019 is marked. Labour's biggest problem probably remains Labour and those so-called supporters for whom internal party discipline apparently means nothing. There were plenty of Conservatives who didn't like Johnson but kept it quiet - I'd argue it would be better for Labour to see more support for the leader and less griping from the side lines.
Parties which don't do self discipline are apt to look divided and that doesn't go down well with voters.
Well, it looks as though American, Ukrainian and other engineers have been busy...
https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1556696165760081926
Analysis of polls of party members by MailOnline shows that Mr Johnson's powerbase is firmly rooted in the over 50s and pensioners.
Almost six-in-10 believe that MPs were wrong to resign en-masse, forcing him out of No10 in July by making him unable to govern, according to a recent analysis by YouGov.
Mail Online
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.8 Rishi Sunak 10%
Next Conservative leader
1.11 Liz Truss 90%
9.8 Rishi Sunak 10%
"Die Hard is a Christmas movie, full stop.
"Steven E. de Souza, who penned the film’s script more than 30 years ago, is adamant about that."
When Liz Truss first seriously featured as a name, I was impressed. Big time. I went through a dip, but I’m coming back round to my initial assessment: I think she’s going to be a cracker for the Tories. Yes, the economic background is absolutely dire, but I’m pretty sure she can lay most of the blame for that on Brown, Cameron, Clegg, May and The Oaf. It is merely a marketing problem. Not insurmountable. The poor will freeze and starve - quite literally - but PM Truss will be alright Jack.
My opinion of Starmer on the other hand has gone in only one direction. Straight down. I was a huge fan and very optimistic when he was first elected. England needs a decent leader. But what a disappointment. A total dud.
What is true is that the space for a government without a majority is much larger for Labour than the Tories - but that doesn't mean that the latter is zero.
If the former, then go to bed you’re getting too tired, and try again tomorrow (see tail end of last thread). Clearly the Ukrainians are not going to cause a radiation event through a false flag in their own territory. What would the objective even be, given they’ve already received $9bn of US military aid and counting? Silly.
If the latter, then you must try harder Leon.
Uninspiring.
It also seems that now, Truss would get a bigger bounce than Sunak. However as OGH points out sustaining that into a general election majority at the next election will be a bigger challenge. Major and Johnson managed it, May and Brown didn't
In fact logically it is better for the SNP to lose seats in Scotland but hold the balance of power in a hung parliament at Westminster than for the SNP to gain seats in Scotland and increase their number of MPs there but for either the Tories to win another majority or Labour to win most seats and have either a majority or enough seats to have a majority with the LDs
Sounds like nothing, after 40C, but that would be one of the top 10 hottest ever days in the UK
Para 1 - You definitely need to buy yourself a train set instead of saying this yet again (only with the change of name - and Ms Truss isn't even PM yet). Here's one suitably posh for you:
https://www.hattons.co.uk/66157/hornby_r817_schools_class_4_4_0_eton_900_in_sr_olive_green/stockdetail
Roll on Autumn I say.
The crucial number for Starmer’s prospects is LD seats. I note that the current FAV band is 10-15%, and second favourite is 5-10%. He’d better hope that the LD’s strongly outperform punters’ expectations. Expect a hell of a lot of paper candidates with red rosettes.
If I were advising Starmer, I'd say it doesn't matter very much. He'll be damned whatever he does - too close to the Unions and "he's in their pocket", too far and "he's abandoning Labour's working class heritage".
Starmer will know an autumn and perhaps winter of discontent will play well for Truss but the rising energy bills and other cost of living issues won't.
As an aside, someone on here once did a comparison of Conservative vote share vs Petrol prices. As pump prices fell, the Conservative vote share rose and vice versa. In my part of the world, petrol has settled at 175.9p per litre, much higher than this time last year but off the 190.9p peak of June. Perhaps this explains a small but significant recovery in Conservative fortunes.
The “PM” is, de facto, the FM of England.
All nations need a leader. Even the English. Quite what they did to deserve Brown, Cameron, May, The Oaf and Truss is a moot question.
Just for interest - 19 countries in the current Eurozone (ignoring all the ones that are mandated to join it that have spent the last 5-25 years desperately avoiding having to do so). Interesting trends.
Using your plurality of community identification criteria, rather than formal membership or attendance, and leaving out the religion of atheism, we have 19 Eurozone countries:
Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Greece, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.
Of those, clearly not Roman Catholic: Estonia, Finland, Denmark, Greece, Cyprus
Clearly RC: Ireland, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Portugal, Slovakia, Luxembourg, Malta, Lithuania
Too tightly balanced to call: Netherlands, Germany, Latvia
Law unto itself - National theology of Not being RC: France
One source, and using various other refs:
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/12/19/5-facts-about-catholics-in-europe
Sympathies
I’m going to miss this weather. Every day sunny. 25-30C. Lovely warm evenings. You soon get used to it
Starmer chose the wrong camp.
(*approx distribution 20:80)
De facto there is such a role.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_the_Netherlands
Germany is now Catholic 27% and Lutheran 24%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_Germany
France is 41% Roman Catholic, just 2% Protestant, 5% Muslim, 40% no religion.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religion_in_France
So of the 19 Eurozone nations then, at least 13 are at least plurality Roman Catholic in terms of largest religion.
Of the remaining 6 only Finland and Latvia are plurality Protestant. Greece and Cyprus and Estonia are plurality Eastern Orthodox. Denmark of course is not in the Eurozone anyway
* Or Bell-the-cat, if you prefer that allusion.
The fight is on to lead BetterTogether2. The campaign that is going to win a referendum that is never going to happen.
I hear that former Tory MSP (1999-2016) Mary Scanlon was ripping her hair out live on GMS. Shame I missed it. Did you catch it?
Harm missiles have been in service since 1985, and used in the Gulf War, Libya and Yugoslavia for three,and heaven knows where else. All possible sources for wreckage, or photos or wreckage.
Information needs to be far more specific.
One interesting suggestion is that they may have been ground-launched.
It clearly does matter. He has made a decree as leader that the front bench are not to join pickets. How he deals with that informs as to his authority and how this policy will hold as strike action increases into the economic/inflationary crisis
Petrol. Yep. Cut fuel duty to bare bones and they will come back from holibobbidydiddle to a lead.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20594201.former-tory-msp-says-liz-truss-lost-vote-inappropriate-nicola-sturgeon-dig/
BTW did you see Partick T have put up signs in the Gàidhlig as well as English? Quite appropriate for the area, but it's upset some folk.
Pop music has definitely, overall, got worse since its peak in the 60s/70s/80s/90s/00s, depending on your POV
There is a lot more shit music being made now than ever before
But there's also more good music being made, even if it has become harder to make the "iconic" music that we seem to have loads of from the past
And it's now happening all over the world. I don't know if anyone listened to my recommendation from yesterday - Monsieur Periné - a Columbian band who have in one day become my favourite foreign language band of all time. They do songs in Spanish and French
I urge you all to put this on right now and turn it right up
If you know a better band not singing in English please do let me know
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGL-eQAAxGs
She's essentially proposing Corbynism without the social benefits.
Those seem to me to be close, and also both low enough to struggle to apply to characterise the whole country. 20% is technically a plurality, but a very small one.
And they called all but three Senate races right. The three they got wrong were:
(1) Maine, where they thought Ms Collins was a goner, and she wasn't.
(2) North Carolina, which they thought was a Dem gain
(3) Georgia, where they thought Perdue would beat out Ossoff
So, a *slight* overestimation of Dems chances, but not a massive one.
But it's so damn dry.
The First Great Heat needed a proper downpour as catharsis. (And to put out the fires.)
The raindrops we got were fat, but lonely. Not good enough.
But even with those changes it is still only 70-75%
But the trends are interesting.
eg France is within a smidge of having higher Mosque attendance than church attendance afaics.
I also think Rishi Tax N'Sunak leads to an electoral defeat through 15-20 lost seats to the LDs in the South. He plays sooooo badly on the doorstep in my experience....
"Smart meters have become agents of the nannying state
Improved technology was meant to empower us to make more choices about our utility use. They have become a regulators' spy in our homes
SAM ASHWORTH-HAYES" (£)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/08/08/smart-meters-have-become-agents-nannying-state/
Some of the best pop music is definitely non-English speaking. A PB-er once linked to a brilliant Lebanese jazz-metal band (IIRC) and it was great - frustratingly I forget the name
Also check The Hu from Mongolia, in one of the most brilliantly ridiculous videos ever made. Heavy metal nose flutes!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jM8dCGIm6yc
Starmer 31%
Truss 28%
Starmer 31%
Sunak 27%
https://twitter.com/OprosUK/status/1556616578145345538?s=20&t=4jttL4MGFGdjuHQT71mDTA
He's sacked the Shadow Transport Secretary - if Nandy has to walk, so be it. Labour needs not to be seen as being too close to the Unions - it just doesn't play well in the marginal seats.
As for fuel duty, this old chestnut - remind me how the Government makes up the £26 billion shortfall from scrapping fuel duty - perhaps we can cut defence as we can't touch the NHS, welfare or pensions. Fuel duty may not be a tax anyone likes but it serves a useful purpose allowing for the provision of other services.
I should be careful, having pulled someone else's tail for getting over-excited about one data point earlier today. But.
If Starmer is competitive with Truss before she has had to annoy anyone by taking a real decision... that matters.
"Vote Starmer.. he'll do" remains the slogan for 2024.
But not 30 or 31 or worse.
I'll check out those bands you mentioned, but I want more Columbian pop music
Check these guys on youtube, they've got 5m+ views for all their videos - they really are pop and they're brilliant
At the end of a perfect summer's day. The right amount of heat, the occasional breeze, the air limpid and the garden and trees rich with fullness.
I note for Germany, you quote Lutheran. Does that include all Protestant denominations, or is it really just Lutheran?
Also... The reality is that on your numbers, almost every country in the eurozone is dominated by non believers.
Sounds like that Ref is coming like a speed train!
So who would do better with polling evidence please
No idea where 26 billion comes from, just what the likely result will be in VI terms if they do it.
A 2019 Euro barometer survey (p229-230 https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/2251) had 30% of Germans as Roman Catholic and 24% as Protestant. The fact northern Germans are less religious than southern Catholic Bavarians has ensured that Germany has a Roman Catholic plurality for the first time since the Reformation.
As for non believers, only the Netherlands of Eurozone nations has more non believers than Roman Catholics and Protestants combined, so you are not correct on that
Sir John Curtice on Sunak v Truss and the polls.
followed by Charles Moore interviewing Rishi Sunak.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q9ElRsHiPTY
Baxter gives (new boundaries):
SNP 55 seats (+7)
Con 1 seat (-5)
Lab 1 seat (nc)
LD 0 seats (-2)
= Starmer is a dud
Similarly with the emphasis on freedom of conscience being largely a child of Nonconformist Protestantism.